More JPM Comments on Modifications and Foreclosures

Were the heck is Orangle County, CA?

I guess they fixed the typo in the online version. Congrats CR on getting props in today's WSJ.

You can't pig me that easily:

" JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 11:52 am

Actually, the net income taxes paid by the bottom 60% of tax filers is 0, so I don't think this could possible be true for the typical family.

That would put the median tax payment at zero. That sounds as correct as the original tax post."

Read it and weep:
The 0% Tax Rate Solution - WSJ.com

TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT!

"selective ignorance" of the delinquencies.

Hear no evil see no evil I guess

sorry if this has been posted already i am working..
CALPERS SUES RATUINGS AGENCIES

Calpers: Rating Agencies to Blame for Huge Losses | The Big Picture

Calpers: Rating Agencies to Blame for Huge Losses

Here is the money quote:

The AAA ratings given by the agencies “proved to be wildly inaccurate and unreasonably high,” according to the suit, which also said that the methods used by the rating agencies to assess these packages of securities “were seriously flawed in conception and incompetently applied…”

“The ratings agencies no longer played a passive role but would help the arrangers structure their deals so that they could rate them as highly as possible,” according to the Calpers suit.

(piggy-backed)

So,

Dogface G.I.'s join up a few years ago when money is flowing like water in the USA, perhaps they joined up on account of patriotism or jingoism or jobism, or maybe an undetermined ism?

They are fighting an invisible foe that refuses to identify himself, in 110 degree heat-with the supply chain broken, as an added bonus.

Just how upset are these guys gonna be when they come back to the world?

So how many of the loans on its own book has JPM modified? No legal constraints against principal writedowns in these cases...

“For JPMorgan Chase, the challenge going forward is going to continue to be deterioration of credit.”

The lender boosted its loan loss reserve to $2 billion in the quarter, adding to the $28 billion set aside to cover credit losses as of March 31.

Investment-banking revenue from trading and stock and bond underwriting is helping offset rising defaults on consumer loans, such as mortgages and credit cards. Dimon said he doesn’t expect the card business to make a profit this year or in 2010, and the company increased its loss projections for prime and subprime mortgages.

JPMorgan Profits From Investment Bank; Defaults Rise (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Calpers Sues Over Ratings of Securities
LESLIE WAYNE
NYT, July 14, 2009
Calpers Sues Over Ratings Of Securities - NY Times

Raters Sued by Calpers Over Losses
RICK BROOKS
WSJ, JULY 15, 2009, 8:38 A.M.
Raters Sued by Calpers Over Losses - WSJ.com

JPMorgan paid the FDIC a special assessment of $675 million in the quarter, resulting in a cost of 10 cents a share, as the agency asks banks to help replenish its cash reserves. The fund fell to $13 billion in the first quarter, the lowest since September 1993, after 53 lenders failed far this year.

13 billion?????

Isn't the re-default rate on modifications over 50 percent? You might see the effects of modifications next quarter, but you'll see what sticks in the quarter after that.

JD,
It will take a while for the anger. GIs will have benefits. Come home, go to school for a while, but once it is clear there aren't any jobs...could get nasty. Also there are a lot of soldiers who aren't reintegrating well. Nothing new there, has happened in every war. Sometimes you stare into the abyss and sometimes it stares back. As a person who has a lot of connections to the military community, there are a lot more than supply lines to the front breaking down. God help us if we get into a real war soon.

Vonbeck

similar thing happened in the 20's. that was in a booming economy.

I doubt Dimon got good grades in English or in Public Speaking. Wonder how he did in ethics.

Iraq War 1 = Spanish Civil War-like, a testing ground for new technology.

Iraq War 2/Afghanistan = A wasting ground for new technology, sophisticated weaponry vs. harsh elements. It is necessary for the military-industrial-complex to make more weapons, keeping the last bastion of corporate upper-middle class jobs intact, back in the world.

California's carry trade -

A New York trading firm opened an electronic market for California IOUs on Wednesday, although it might be a few days before any transactions are made.
Electronic trades will cash out California IOUs - Sacramento Business, Housing Market News | Sacramento Bee

TIm:

the $13B balance sheet included contingent liabilities based on the BAC and C exceptional rescues.
FDIC: Chief Financial Officer's (CFO) Report to the Board 

"Canary in a Gold Mine"

California's carry trade -

A New York trading firm opened an electronic market for California IOUs on Wednesday, although it might be a few days before any transactions are made.

Pig stampede today! CR, go out for coffee!

Read it and weep:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753094923135901.html

Quick quiz: An editorial by "The Institute for Policy Innovation" has
a. Solid statistics
b. Slanted statistics.

Whether you are pro or against the war, I urge everyone to join an organization that goes to the Vet hospitals and visits with soldiers. First, it means a hell of a lot to these guys. Second, as a grown man I have broken down twice in fits of tears after visiting. I don't know how they do it. One of the greatest evils of the modern era is hiding the horrors of war from the people. In so doing, we have lost heroes as well. It is hard for me to even talk about it...quote the bible, but for the grace of god...

God help us if we get into a real war soon.

Sounds like a perfect "solution" for U6 of 20+% and U3 of 14+%.

Mix in the unemployed Euros and Chinese and you are making me thankful I'm on the upper age range of past drafts...

Basel et al

Is it right that the Fund is deficient 39 billion If they had to pay out BAC/C?

"...payment reduction modifications that are done reunderwritten with real income stats and so fourth..."

Feh! Ick! Yucky slimy zombie bankster slanguage!

"I feel sullied and unusual." - Jack Sparrow

When does Calpers come clean with their balance sheet?

thank god the pension and endowment funds are heavily invested in illiquid PE funds. that way they can mark to fantasy.

Calpers comes clean when Cali does?

About 5 years ago my wife and I were on a airport shuttle bus that got caught in LA traffic, and on board was a firefighter from Birmingham, Alabama...

We got talking, and he's spent his 49th and 50th years in Iraq as part of the Alabama National Guard, and I asked what it was like?, and he told me he'd been all over the world, and it most closely resembled a much bigger and spread-out Tijuana.

Vonbek- So true...we send them to fight for some cause created by old men in positions of power..then leave them to fend off the devils of that action..Took my daughter to va hospital in Palo alto..moved by thier courage, angered by the pigmens so called cause...

Or, we could go back to letters of marque, with shares. The Navy could clean up the deficit right quick.

Interesting to see JPM take a wait and see attitude as to whether or not the mods meet payment sched for three months. That may be being done elsewhere, but this is the first I've seen mentioned.

burnside - that's not by choice. That's per the program guidelines.

For the emoticonally inclined:

Now you can express your frustration with CR's fast fingers. Pigged

You can also discuss the finer points of Two Buck Chuck In Vino Veritas

and the mental state of our financial leadership. Currently Smoking Cannibis

If there are others you would like, send me feedback mail.

"Lost Children" by Gordon Lightfoot

Down the hall their voices ring, their feet are on the run
Phantoms on the winter sky, together they do come
Faded lips and eyes of blue theyre carried in the wind
Their laughter filled the countryside but theyll not laugh again

All the games are ended now, their voices have been stilled
Their fathers built the tools of war by which they all were killed
Their fathers made the uniforms showing which side they were on
And the young boys wear the middle name for guns to prey upon

Youve seen the fires in the night, watched the devil as he smiles
Youve heard a mothers mournful cry as she searches for her child
Youve seen the lines of refugees, the faces of despair
And wondered at the wise men who never seem to care

Goodbye you lost children, God speed you on your way
Your little beds are empty now, your toys are put away
Your mother sings a lullaby as she gazes at the floor
Your father builds more weapons and marches out once more

Down the hall their voices ring, their feet are on the run
Phantoms on the winter sky, together they do come
Faded lips and eyes of blue theyre carried in the wind
Their laughter filled the countryside but theyll not laugh again

Shnaps:

Oh. Looking for prudence in all the wrong places . . .

People looking for a trigger event for another leg down in housing got their wish.

MGIC is ceasing new underwriting. Denninger is on it: The Market Ticker 

kcoop awesome!

What about when we discuss US Olympic[ic swimmers?

awesomeness, esp the code

Currently Smoking Cannibis

An email I received. Read at your discretion:

"WIN & METRO IAF
10% IS ENOUGH ACTION AGAINST USURY

WHAT: Action launching the 10% is Enough Campaign Against Usury. WIN & Metro IAF demand that banks and other financial institutions stop committing usury and cap their interest rates at 10%.

Along with our action in D.C., simultaneous actions will take place in London, Boston, Chicago, New York City, and Charlotte by other Metro IAF affiliates.

WHEN: Wednesday, July 22, 2009 11am (SHARP) - 1pm

WHERE: Start at New York Avenue Presbyterian Church, 1313 New York Avenue NW, Washington D.C.
After a briefing we will walk to various banks in the area.

WHO: 3-5 Washington Interfaith Network leaders per institution.

We will be joined by leaders from our sister organizations from BUILD in Baltimore, AIM in Montgomery County, and PATH in Howard County. Simultaneous actions are being organizing and supported by Metro Industrial Areas Foundation - comprised of 18 IAF organizations across the East Coast, Midwest, and in London.

Background--(Also, See attached Briefing Materials):

18 Metro-IAF organizations across the East Coast, Midwest, and in London have conducted 1,500 house meetings with thousands of citizens in cities and suburbs to find out how the current economic crisis is affecting them. Time after time the issue of debt due to skyrocketing interest rates and fees came up.

The time has come to resurrect laws against usury because:

1) Our people are hurting because of crushing debt loads exacerbated by exorbitant interest rates - in the form of high credit card premiums, payday loans, banking and check-cashing fees, sub-prime mortgages, rapid-refund tax return schemes, car-title scams, and other practices that seek to generate income off of financial misfortune.

2) Moral and civic prohibitions against usury stretch back deep into our religious and national history.

3) The elimination of usury laws in America from 1978-1980 ushered in an era of deregulation that allowed financial markets to run wild, accelerating the present economic crisis.

4) The elimination of usury laws helped shift the investment of American capital and talent away from manufacturing and material innovation and into an unproductive financial sector based on trading paper, rather than producing long-term wealth. That shift has damaged other sectors of the economy, decimated America's labor force, and weakened America's position in the world. "

Amy Vruno
Organizer / General Counsel
Washington Interfaith Network
202-744-2302 (cell)

Coleman Milling, Senior Organizer
Washington Interfaith Network
1226 Vermont Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20005
office 202-518-0815

Timothy E. Tilghman
Organizer
Washington Interfaith Network
An Industrial Areas Foundation Affiliate
(202)518-0815

Martin Paul Trimble
Lead Organizer
Washington Interfaith Network (WIN)
V.O.I.C.E.-NOVA—Virginians Organized for Interfaith Community Engagement
(Industrial Areas Foundation Affiliates)
202-518-0815 (w)
WIN : WIN - Home

Industrial Areas Foundation Home

" JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 12:13 pm
Quick quiz: An editorial by "The Institute for Policy Innovation" has
a. Solid statistics
b. Slanted statistics."

Let's skip the snarking, and see "your data/references".

Harley-Davidson to cut more jobs after 91% profit fall.....perhaps time to make Easy Rider 2.0

Pigged rules! But it is too early to In Vino Veritas or Currently Smoking Cannibis

" JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 12:13 pm
Quick quiz: An editorial by "The Institute for Policy Innovation" has
a. Solid statistics
b. Slanted statistics."

Let's skip the snarking, and see "your data/references".

These are the same folks from Dick Armey that argued for second-hand smoke. I don't waste my time on publications from orgs with no credibility.

Shnaps, cool. I hadn't seen that article in the WSJ. That is a nice mention

best wishes

Awesome icons Koop!

I get Currently Smoking Cannibis in the morning. I get In Vino Veritas in the afternoon.

RE 60% pay nearly 0% income tax:

That figure subtracts the poor's EITC from what a typical middle-class family pays but the middle-class is still paying $2.2k (if 4.4% @ $50k), not $0.

About 60% of families pay $0 mortgage because they have no mortgage so it is not hard to have taxes higher than $0 mortgage (60% was from the 1990s, might be different now).

$50k income =
$2.2k income tax net
$3.8k FICA ($7.6k if count employer match lowering wage)
$300 gas tax (if 12k miles, 20mpg, $0.50 tax per gallon)
...

Email just received from my publisher re shipment of my new book, Animal Kingdom, from the printer in Hong Kong:

"I just had a close call with our shipment being delayed in LAX customs, Long Beach with other shipments in our container. I would have had to pay several hundred dollars or more for them to move it and examine it. A new experience.

Mercifully they decided to release us (others not so fortunate) for the trip across country. I will hear tomorrow what overall delay all this is causing, probably 2 weeks. I'll let you know.

Such a relief! Someone is praying..."

(signed)


Happiness is making slightly more money than your colleagues.

" Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 12:42 pm

RE 60% pay nearly 0% income tax:

That figure subtracts the poor's EITC from what a typical middle-class family pays but the middle-class is still paying $2.2k (if 4.4% @ $50k), not $0.

About 60% pay $0 mortgage because they have no mortgage so it is not hard to have taxes higher than $0 mortgage (60% was from the 1990s, might be different now).

$50k income =
$2.2k income tax net
$3.8k FICA ($7.6k if count employer match lowering wage)
$300 gas tax (if 12k miles, 20mpg, $0.50 tax per gallon)"

As I mentioned previously, I stated "INCOME tax" (see previous thread or the 2nd post on this page). This in not new information, and these are the only folks that've been talking about it. If someone has real information to the contrary, please spill it......

Don't worry, Dawg. FedGov will either direclty issue or backstop mortgage insurance. It ain't no thang but a chicken wang.

"MGIC is ceasing new underwriting. Denninger is on it: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/"

From KD:

"We need to force lending back to 80% maximum LTV (20% down payments in CASH) and 36% DTI (debt-to-income) ratios maximum, but the housing industry has continued to rely on and demand access to money on looser (that is, more leveraged) terms."

Amen. I have been saying this over and over and over - 20% down should be the minimum. We don't need to waste money on an inquiry into the financial crisis. We need one, simple law: make it illegal to issue a loan with a lien against house for more than 80% of the house's value. No initial purchases, no refis, no second, third, fourth liens, nothing.

Sure, there will be cheating, and people will magically find downpayment money showing up in their account, but at least if there are enough barriers, the amount of people with excess leverage will diminish significantly.

"I just had a close call with our shipment being delayed in LAX customs, Long Beach with other shipments in our container. I would have had to pay several hundred dollars or more for them to move it and examine it. A new experience.

Many books lose money and several hundred dollars can wipe out the profits of a book that otherwise was a modest success.

To be a financially successful book author, get elected to the US Senate like Obama.

Good luck.

Pigged rules! But it is too early to In Vino Veritas or Currently Smoking Cannibis

Never to early for Currently Smoking Cannibis

Ken, you are so Sick! It's da Ticking time bomb, dude!

Alright who's the wiseacre who put Denninger in the glossary?

Health Care Bill Will Fund State Vaccine Teams to Conduct ‘Interventions’ in Private Homes

CNSNews.com - Health Care Bill Will Fund State Vaccine Teams to Conduct ‘Interventions’ in Private Homes

more toys from Ken, Christmas in July.

Veni, vidi, victims

"United Scholars For The Fed" - Petition Signatories Update

Look at name 58 "Ben Dover" from Devry(?) University

Zero Hedge: "United Scholars For The Fed" - Petition Signatories Update

Whoever did the Denninger entry should change it to "42 pt. BOLD FACED type"

"Don't worry, Dawg. FedGov will either direclty issue or backstop mortgage insurance. It ain't no thang but a chicken wang. "

Actually, it doesn't look like they will.

the private MI industry is a strange animal. they are providing insurance primarily to Fannie and Freddie. But Fannie and Freddie are government entities for all intents and purposes (though not officially).

in essence, the govt is getting insurance from private companies. very unusual, as the federal govt doesn't buy insurance.

at the same time, the govt also runs the FHA, which, guess what, provides insurance for loans with LTVs over 80 (and below 80 as well).

so we have a private industry providing insurance coverage to the govt, competing against the government?

ain't gonna last. This industry has been begging for TARP money since TARP was created, and have gotten nothing.

What it looks like to me is coverage for loans over 80LTV will be provided only by the govt in a matter of time.

Not great, but at least if at least Fannie and Freddie got out of the over 80LTV business it would be a good start.

In Vino Veritas

Currently Smoking Cannibis
Pigged

have to play with the new toys.

Never heard of him.

So what hurts an economy more:

A Few atomic bombs; aka GS, JPM, BAC, C going under....

or a lot of cluster bombs; aka CIT, regional and local banks dying...

How come I got a feeling that the cluster bomb scenario creates more lasting devastation?

Bad news. This is a bust. You're all under arrest.

"Good luck."

Thanks,NOC.

But no comments from anyone about the WIN info?

Ben Dover LOL

Americans Keeping Their Cars Longer

"In 2005, just over 46 percent of new car acquirers indicated they would not be shopping for a new vehicle for four years or more; in the just completed survey that number has risen to about 59 percent - an increase of almost 13 percent. At the same time, the number of people intending to replace their vehicle within the next 2 years has fallen."

Source Auto Pacific.

" July 16, 2009

Fitch Ratings on July 16 lowered New Zealand’s long-term sovereign credit rating outlook to negative from stable, Bloomberg reported. Ai Ling Ngiam, a Fitch sovereign analyst, said that New Zealand’s deficit is large and projected to remain above the level necessary to stabilize and reduce net debt. “A stronger fiscal adjustment than currently planned may be required to raise national savings and reduce the current account deficit, as well as structural reforms to improve productivity,” Fitch said in a statement."

This is old data, but it's from the CBO:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/70xx/doc7000/12-29-FedTaxRates.pdf
Check out the .PDF for 2003, and you'll see that while the bottom 60% did cover 0.5% of total tax liabilities, the trend is towards 0%, and by now it surely is.

Summary Table 2.
Shares of Federal Tax Liabilities, 2002 and 2003
(Percent)
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Notes: Income categories are defined by ranking all people by their comprehensive household
income adjusted for household size—that is, divided by the square root of the household’s
size. (A household consists of the people who share a housing unit, regardless of their relationships.)
Quintiles, or fifths, of the income distribution contain equal numbers of people.
Comprehensive household income equals pretax cash income plus income from other
sources. Pretax cash income is the sum of wages, salaries, self-employment income, rents,
taxable and nontaxable interest, dividends, realized capital gains, cash transfer payments,
and retirement benefits plus taxes paid by businesses (corporate income taxes and the
employer's share of Social Security, Medicare, and federal unemployment insurance payroll
taxes) and employee contributions to 401(k) retirement plans. Other sources of income
include all in-kind benefits (Medicare, Medicaid, employer-paid health insurance premiums,
food stamps, school lunches and breakfasts, housing assistance, and energy assistance).
Households with negative income are excluded from the lowest income category but are
included in the totals.
Income
Category
2002
Lowest Quintile 20.5 4.3 5.2 1.0 -2.6 4.1 0.7 11.4
Second Quintile 19.2 9.3 10.4 4.9 -0.2 10.1 1.9 15.2
Middle Quintile 19.9 14.6 15.7 10.2 5.3 15.7 5.2 18.7
Fourth Quintile 19.5 21.0 21.6 18.9 14.8 25.6 7.1 22.1
Highest Quintile 20.4 51.6 48.2 64.8 82.8 44.3 83.4 32.2
All Quintiles 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Top 10% 10.4 36.6 33.3 49.2 67.5 26.5 76.0 19.3
Top 5% 5.2 26.4 23.5 37.6 54.5 15.0 69.5 11.7
Top 1% 1.0 13.5 11.5 21.4 33.0 3.9 53.4 4.1
2003
Lowest Quintile 20.6 4.2 5.0 1.0 -2.9 4.1 0.6 11.6
Second Quintile 19.3 9.1 10.3 4.5 -1.1 9.9 1.6 15.1
Middle Quintile 19.9 14.4 15.5 9.9 4.6 15.7 4.3 18.6
Fourth Quintile 19.4 20.9 21.4 18.6 14.6 25.4 6.1 21.9
Highest Quintile 20.3 52.2 48.8 65.7 84.9 44.7 85.8 32.3
All Quintiles 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Top 10% 10.3 37.2 33.9 50.2 69.6 26.5 79.4 19.4
Top 5% 5.2 27.0 24.2 38.7 56.6 15.0 73.2 11.9
Top 1% 1.0 14.3 12.2 22.6 34.6 3.9 57.5 4.4

Holy C-r-a-p Federal Tax Receipts Plunge 31% There Goes The Budget!

Receipts, which I had estimated would be $230 billion in June, came in at $215.4 billion. O…M…G.

Just to be clear, last year’s $866.7 billion above excludes about $78 billion in stimulus payments, which were treated (incorrectly, in my opinion) as negative receipts. Regardless of their treatment, they had nothing to do with tax collections from economic activity during the quarter. This year’s second-quarter receipts on the valid “economic activity” measurement came in almost 31% lower than last year.

See the "Summarizing the past quarter’s receipts after the release of today’s Monthly Treasury Statement"

More on this, and the deficit,

BizzyBlog

Next quarter we should see the results of the modicifications.

-IF- the mods result in cures. Three payments is not a cure in my opinion.

I know you said income and someone else said poor but the discussion began with typical family's total taxes.

"World Bank warns of deflation spiral..."

US/Fed propaganda? They want everyone to do synchronized pumping and QE, so USA's QE doesn't seem as bad? (For when every currency descends at the same time, no single currency is going to experience confidence crisis -- which benefits USD the most)

The saver countries, (i.e. Asia, China, oil producers, Germany), are ok with this?

"Give us your savings and thou shalt be spared"

What next? War if you don't cooperate?

"What it looks like to me is coverage for loans over 80LTV will be provided only by the govt in a matter of time."

That is more or less what I was driving at.

scone
start giving prize money, but letters of marque hmm wonder if that how the pirates of strait of whatever are working.

ps ever read patrick o'brian lovely books

ps ever read patrick o'brian lovely books - GJ

Yes indeedy, just finished Wine-Dark Sea!

The WSJ link had 2006 data that the middle 20% pays 4.4% of total federal income tax revenue.

I agree with your basic point that a large chunk pays no income tax.

My lyrics for Gordon Lightfoot's "Lost Children" are slightly different:

...
Their mothers made the uniforms, showing which side they were on
And the young boys were the middle men for the guns to prey upon
...

4.4% is portion of total federal income tax revenue, not net tax rate, which last I saw was about 10-15% for the middle class, or $5k-$7.5k on $50k.

Pavel: But no comments from anyone about the WIN info?

Price controls limit supply.

Harley-Davidson to cut more jobs after 91% profit fall.

  • a bellwether for discretionary spending.
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