Reading a bit further in the report:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 667,534 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 86,389 from the previous week. There were 483,981 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.6 percent during the week ending July 4, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,135,066, an increase of 63,714 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.3 percent and the volume was 3,118,724.

Any idea what they mean here by "clouded"?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell in the latest weekly data, after seasonal adjustment, because many expected manufacturing layoffs, mainly automotive, did not occur, the Labor Department said Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending July 11 fell 47,000 to 522,000 - the lowest level since early January. However, recent data is "clouded" by the timing of this year's layoffs, many of which have already occurred, according to a Labor Department analyst. Further, some layoffs may come later or not at all, and analysts expect several more weeks of volatility in the claims data due to layoff-timing issues.

Any idea what they mean here by "clouded"?

--Hopium Smoke.

I have seen a few stories that talk about a correlation between commercial real estate and unemployment - stuff like this:

Silicon Valley Rent, Vacancy, and Unemployment | Square Feet Commercial Real Estate Blog

CR, is there some kind of correlation? thanks

NOTE: The seasonally adjusted weekly claims numbers are being impacted by the layoffs in the automobile industry and other manufacturing sectors. Usually companies cut back production in the summer, and the numbers are adjusted for that pattern - but this year the companies cut back much earlier. This distortion is expected to last for another week or two.

Listen. All we care about is the headline. I don't want no fancy "notes" or "addendums". I don't even want an article. Just tell me the number so that I can trade.

I knew there was a reason I only watched CNBC.

Hopefully in the future we can distill all this irritating news down to one word... "Buy".

I strongly disagree with your choice of headline CR.

"Weekly Unemployment Claims Decline Sharply" should read:
"Seasonally Adjusted Weekly Unemployment Claims Decline Sharply"

no way. I would choose this headline:

"Buy"

In two weeks they start seasonally adjusting up instead of down--we'll see how things look then.

" Yearning to Learn (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 8:53 am
.....
I strongly disagree with your choice of headline CR.

"Weekly Unemployment Claims Decline Sharply" should read:
"Seasonally Adjusted Weekly Unemployment Claims Decline Sharply"

no way. I would choose this headline:

"Buy""

I would choose this tag-line:
//SNARK

"no way. I would choose this headline: "Buy"

Yep...... it doesn't matter if you think the game is rigged, it only matters that you buy a ticket to play.

Everyone probably knows this, but CR made it onto:
RealClearMarkets: Market-Related News, Analysis & Commentary
Congrads CR....
It's in the "OFF THE STREET" section

I sure hope $522k job loss is sustainable, like 5% deficits.

The decreased job-loss rate means we will reach 0 jobs a little later than previously scheduled.

Gentlemen, don your rally caps.

It looks like the market is discounting the unemployment number. The "biggest ever" drop in continuing claims looks like a statistical anomaly.

Boyle: An equally, or perhaps even more, dangerous argument now gaining currency is that accounting should be given an explicit role in promoting financial stability, rather than its traditional role of providing information useful to investors in their decision-making. The implication of this view is that accounting measures that show volatility should be adjusted to create an impression of stability.

That reminds me of my 6/25 article:

"Confusing cause with consequence is like Homer Simpson using pliers to force the temperature-gauge needle to a safe reading even as the nuclear reactor melts down."

Purely anecdotal and not evidence of any recovery of the economy to previous boom status but one of our local employers is hiring 350 people to staff production lines. The rumor on the street is they are bringing production back from China. These are not great jobs, paying 8-10 dollars an hour but for those who have run out of unemployment benefits, it is better than nothing.