The economy is moving along just the same way that drivers in a 1950s Hollywood film could be said to be moving along. Through the magic of rear projection. All you have to do to make the illusion work is to energetically move the wheel back and forth, as if you were actually steering. It works great, as long as the camera is on the stars' faces and not taking in the whole studio.
We just don't get it. It has all been decided. Despite the evidence to the contrary, the captains of the economy have decided like General Browning before Operation Marketgarden that 'the party is on, and no one is going to stop it'....we just get to sit this one out, and will later be marginalized when the plan spectacularly fails...
The economy is not moving, the government is in overdrive to create propaganda. We need to step back and use a little common sense about what is happening in our own community.
PCE that is given a pop by the next stimulus package which gives 500 bucks to people. The poor will spend it, the "middle class" will put it towards debt, and the rich won't even get it or notice it.
Well, the early 1980s recession never ended where I live... It's all to do with one's perspective. In GoldmanSachsLand, of course we're in a recovery - hell, we're in a BOOM.
First off, I am out of the market, so no money at risk...but is anyone else getting sick just looking at this pump...it is very disturbing to me today for some reason....can't laugh it off.
Next Congressional session in December will, among several big items, include a major inquiry by Senator Glass concerning banking in general and the role of Federal Reserve credit in speculation;
Bulls encouraged by recent rally and technical indicators of strength. Buy orders accumulated over the weekend, leading to an opening rally with new rally highs for many major stocks. Speculative issues were particularly active. Oils, food, amusement, communication, utilities, banks strong. Most stocks closed at daily highs.
Good signs seen in rise in life insurance sales and bank deposits vs. 1929.
Leading traders seen buying; "They are picking out stocks strong in intrinsic value, with potentialities of a quick comeback when business returns to normal."
Auto industry successful in reducing inventories by drastically cutting production.
May freight traffic on class 1 rails was 36.6B net ton miles, down 12.8% from 1929 and down 6.8% from 1928.
A&P first-half sales $548M, up 8% from 1929; June sales also up 8% from 1929. Remodeling stores to attract "that part of the public that patronizes better shopping districts and demands unusual varieties and costly delicacies."
We need to frame the question differently... It's not a question of the engine of growth, but rather a question what triggers the next collapse.
I'm not trying to be reflexively negative, but I see nothing being done on the policy front to encourage real growth. I only see policies to resurrect the false economic growth that we've come to know and love for 20 years. That is, debt-fueled growth with investment being made in the areas of (a) consumer goods and services, and (b) government goodies. Neither of these results in sustainable growth. Only sequential booms, with ever-larger and more damaging busts.
The next one will be a doozy, especially if there is a loss of faith in government funding vehicles.
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 12:21 pm
nah, it's health care. what's the human equivalent of pergraniteel?
Hair transplants, Botox. Implants. Yep, we'll all end up with tight hairy breasts. BTW, did you enjoy the pergraniteel definition culled from patrick dot net?
"that part of the public that patronizes better shopping districts and demands unusual varieties and costly delicacies."
That is an important part of the economy.
Today
WholeFoods reported that adding an entire section that includes: Glod flaked soup, Sweat from a baby during a border crossing flavored water, and spicy auto worker flavored anchovies are expected to boost sales by 3%
1) where is FED and Treasury intervention on that chart ?
2) where is bailing out private corporations ?
3) where is rigging the bankruptcy courts?
4) where is funnelling billions through insolvent insurance companies to new bank-holding companies?
Are those leading, lagging, or just plain sad indicators ?
Growth may come if the "American Idol" judges wear Nascar style jackets and hats with sponsors plastered all over them.
"The next contestant is brought to you by the makers of Viagra" ..............
Speaking of financial innovation (aka fraud) here's a speech Timmay Geithner gave back in 2004. As you can imagine, Timmay assumed that the financial innovations were beneficial for the economy, not just for year end banker bonuses.
i once sat next to these old dudes on a plane who where talking about getting hip replacement surgeries to improve their golf handicaps. they had to wait until they were eligible for medicare.
Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 12:27 pm CR: (1) In recent recessions, unemployment significantly lagged the end of the recession. That is very likely this time too.
How do people buy these houses and PCEs without income (either wages or debt)?
This is my question too. Merely hanging onto existing jobs doesn't stimulate anything.
For example, the people who are retaining their jobs in and around the state capitol are the people who have been in their lines of work for 10 yrs or more. But these people already own their homes and have pretty much bought everything they need. So what is left at the micro level to give RI and PCE the gas it needs to restart the engine?
America is a classic rock act. No new material. A lot of money spent on making it look like the last 40 years hasn't happened, can't hit some of the notes. Eveything is dependent on merchandising and nostalgia.
i once sat next to these old dudes on a plane who where talking about getting hip replacement surgeries to improve their golf handicaps. they had to wait until they were eligible for medicare.
Morons.
I know a guy who lost a leg when his hip transplant went bad [blood clot & infection]... my FIL has had three transplants on the same hip... after the first one he fell on it and the bone around the stem cracked & never healed... the next one pulled out because the glue didn't hold... third one finally took.
Let me guess who will lead us out of the recession? Repo man, BK attorneys, Foreclosure sales. For get anything? The problem this time is the fall of the recession may be called but the velocity that the consumer hit bottom was Mach 3. Splat Will he bounce back as in history before? Nope, the rock of debt dropped right on top of him and it is a biggie. Long time till search parties even find the consumer little own have a wallet thick enough to find. Flat line for a long time.
energy-zero hedge has some comments on that vix thingy....or bloomberg
The VIX rose with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a sign from the options market that the steepest three-day rally for stocks since June is poised to end.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, as the VIX is known, added 1.7 percent to 25.44 at 2 p.m. in New York. The S&P 500 gained 2.4 percent. They have moved in the same direction 6 percent of the time since January 2003, according to data compiled by Charles Schwab Corp. The S&P 500 reversed course the next day 66 percent of the time, including seven of the past nine instances.
“That is remarkable,” Randy Frederick, head of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas, said of the tandem move by the S&P 500 and VIX today. “The VIX is expecting something here, either a pull back this afternoon or tomorrow.”
Both indexes rose on July 6. The next day, the S&P 500 retreated 2 percent. The volatility benchmark, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” because it almost always increases as stocks fall, reflects expectations for price swings for the next 30 days and is calculated from S&P 500 options that are one or two months from expiration. Higher levels signal more risk in equities. "
Not One Cent, even with a jobless recovery you usually see a pickup in RI and PCE - because the people with jobs feel more secure and start spending again
Obviously the unemployed don't feel the recovery until sometime later. I think a large percentage of U.S families have been in a recession since early 2001.
First off, I am out of the market, so no money at risk...but is anyone else getting sick just looking at this pump...it is very disturbing to me today for some reason....can't laugh it off.
It feels like they are setting up for some very big and bad news. They know it's gonna fall, so make it fall from a higher level. Everything in the last 48 hours seems very orchestrated for pump.
"It feels like they are setting up for some very big and bad news."
brown pants?"
I just wear depends now instead. Cuts down on the dry-cleaning bills on the odd day I still look at those 3 lonely short positions I'm still sitting on.
It feels like they are setting up for some very big and bad news. They know it's gonna fall, so make it fall from a higher level. Everything in the last 48 hours seems very orchestrated for pump.
Either that, or they just want to sell a lot of calls.
"I still think the keys are Residential Investment (RI) and PCE, and therefore I think the recovery will be sluggish. "
It's going to take a lot of Stimulation (TM) to get RI and PCE moving up in any meaningful way, aside from bumping a few inches off the bottom. That's why I keep going back to people like Krugman, even though I despise inflation. The alternative is to let it all burn and start from the ashes, the Mellon solution; and that's not politically feasible or socially advisable. Although our new Chinese overlords might be merciful.
I would like people to get off the free cell phone thing.
It's one of the cheapest services govt. can offer to help indigent people get back on their feet.
It helps to connect them to family, friends, networks, services and jobs -- all of which are necessary to get out of poverty. You can't require somebody to contact potential employers if they can't get phone access.
There aren't very many pay phones left, even if you can stir up change.
Of course, most indigent don't have PCs and Internet.
There's a streak of cruelty in some comments.
Some of the indigent are your former friends, fellow workers and neighbors.
It feels like they are setting up for some very big and bad news. They know it's gonna fall, so make it fall from a higher level. Everything in the last 48 hours seems very orchestrated for pump.
Rich- I'm thinking same....
corus and guarantee, plus wipe out ZIT bondholders and shareholders?
cr - the reason you cant believe the Fed came out with this forecast is that you are still in denial as to the seriousness of the policy of hope, and how fully the Fed is on board with it. It's full on propaganda and spin at this point, which is about that is left in the toolbag once youve boxed yourself in with the financial system status quo.
Coping mechanism. Despise those who have failed as weaklings, so that you can separate yourself from the possibility of it happening to your noble self. And you don't have to question any of your assumptions about life, the economy, or anything.
"setting it up to fall from a higher level"
That's what's been done since march...it's all orchestrated with the constant barrage of crap we've been getting that passes for statistics.
*uck them all......I just don't know what else can be said about it any longer
People that have no business walking around (like from outside of a jail) are continuing to profit immensely from this crap-fest.
There is little we can do about it...from a mechanical standpoint. What, in god's name, is it going to take? I really wish there was an outlet for this but there does not appear to be one since the masses see that they've only lost 35% now instead of the 45% a few months ago-and that was for a week maybe?
It's the flaw of aggregate perspective on economy.
If the economy has turned, by definition, it means equal or more sectors of the economy is finally making more / enough money to grow.
Those sectors will be increasing employment, capacity and wages.
At the same time, there'll be sectors still shedding jobs, hence UE goes up.
From a consumer demand perspective, after being UE for a while, and suddenly getting "relief" from having a new job, is the best way to get some PCE going from "pent up demand". At the very least, these people will eat out to celebrate a new job, that's PCE right there.
Thus, PCE and RI can go up, even if UE goes down.
However, suppose you have a jobless recovery... then wages/employment never goes up, RI/PCE never happens...
I don't see "Bernanke Picks the Pockets of the Future" on the list of financial engines. That's a legitimate source... we even have a prominent Nobel winner who'll say so.
What cause are the prophets of doom going to pontificate on and bond around in three months after it is clear that recession ended and national housing prices bottomed in June (Feb. in my market)? Global Warming? The swine flu? Population stresses? That Y2012 problem? Indeflation (prices inflating and deflating simultaneously)?
Oh, this one's easy:
Financial innovation.
nah, it's health care. what's the human equivalent of pergraniteel?
The economy is moving along just the same way that drivers in a 1950s Hollywood film could be said to be moving along. Through the magic of rear projection. All you have to do to make the illusion work is to energetically move the wheel back and forth, as if you were actually steering. It works great, as long as the camera is on the stars' faces and not taking in the whole studio.
Does my slow Southern Accent always make me second?
MaryAnn,
That and having to leap a white pickett fence?
Does my slow Southern Accent always make me second?
Now that's just silly.
It makes you fourth.
We just don't get it. It has all been decided. Despite the evidence to the contrary, the captains of the economy have decided like General Browning before Operation Marketgarden that 'the party is on, and no one is going to stop it'....we just get to sit this one out, and will later be marginalized when the plan spectacularly fails...
engine of growth: GSCE= Goldman Sachs Consumption Expenditure, kick in right after the bonuses
"Although I've argued repeatedly that a "Great Depression 2" was extremely unlikely"
How 'bout a repeat of the Stone Age ? Is that off the table ?
The economy is not moving, the government is in overdrive to create propaganda. We need to step back and use a little common sense about what is happening in our own community.
Anyone else believe the 2001 recession never really ended?
Oh, it's gonna be PCE.
PCE that is given a pop by the next stimulus package which gives 500 bucks to people. The poor will spend it, the "middle class" will put it towards debt, and the rich won't even get it or notice it.
CR: (1) In recent recessions, unemployment significantly lagged the end of the recession. That is very likely this time too.
How do people buy these houses and PCEs without income (either wages or debt)?
This fall, we'll have to hope the Immaculate Recovery got its flu shots.
Well, the early 1980s recession never ended where I live... It's all to do with one's perspective. In GoldmanSachsLand, of course we're in a recovery - hell, we're in a BOOM.
First off, I am out of the market, so no money at risk...but is anyone else getting sick just looking at this pump...it is very disturbing to me today for some reason....can't laugh it off.
Headlines July 15, 1930
Next Congressional session in December will, among several big items, include a major inquiry by Senator Glass concerning banking in general and the role of Federal Reserve credit in speculation;
Bulls encouraged by recent rally and technical indicators of strength. Buy orders accumulated over the weekend, leading to an opening rally with new rally highs for many major stocks. Speculative issues were particularly active. Oils, food, amusement, communication, utilities, banks strong. Most stocks closed at daily highs.
Good signs seen in rise in life insurance sales and bank deposits vs. 1929.
Leading traders seen buying; "They are picking out stocks strong in intrinsic value, with potentialities of a quick comeback when business returns to normal."
Auto industry successful in reducing inventories by drastically cutting production.
May freight traffic on class 1 rails was 36.6B net ton miles, down 12.8% from 1929 and down 6.8% from 1928.
A&P first-half sales $548M, up 8% from 1929; June sales also up 8% from 1929. Remodeling stores to attract "that part of the public that patronizes better shopping districts and demands unusual varieties and costly delicacies."
CR-
Thx for the post. Is it possible for government spending to replace PCE?
We need to frame the question differently... It's not a question of the engine of growth, but rather a question what triggers the next collapse.
I'm not trying to be reflexively negative, but I see nothing being done on the policy front to encourage real growth. I only see policies to resurrect the false economic growth that we've come to know and love for 20 years. That is, debt-fueled growth with investment being made in the areas of (a) consumer goods and services, and (b) government goodies. Neither of these results in sustainable growth. Only sequential booms, with ever-larger and more damaging busts.
The next one will be a doozy, especially if there is a loss of faith in government funding vehicles.
CIT govt package coming within next 24 hours. Whewww!! I was worried someone was gonna actually fail.
CIT trading halted. Too small to fail
what's the story with CIT?
shares got halted
*U.S. AID PACKAGE FOR CIT EXPECTED IN NEXT 24 HOURS: REUTERS
Can I be the first to coin the phrase "too medium to fail"?
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 12:21 pm
nah, it's health care. what's the human equivalent of pergraniteel?
Hair transplants, Botox. Implants. Yep, we'll all end up with tight hairy breasts. BTW, did you enjoy the pergraniteel definition culled from patrick dot net?
CIT went to $0.01 minutes ago.
edit: or is this a glitch in my market data?
*U.S. AID PACKAGE FOR CIT EXPECTED IN NEXT 24 HOURS
the financial cargo cult
"that part of the public that patronizes better shopping districts and demands unusual varieties and costly delicacies."
That is an important part of the economy.
Today
WholeFoods reported that adding an entire section that includes: Glod flaked soup, Sweat from a baby during a border crossing flavored water, and spicy auto worker flavored anchovies are expected to boost sales by 3%
Yep, we'll all end up with tight hairy breasts
Got that. What else you have on the list.
cr-
your post titles are esp. snarky today - love it.
*U.S. AID PACKAGE FOR CIT EXPECTED IN NEXT 24 HOURS
Would that be with or without a bondholder haircut?
Yes I have to ask: This is the first new package from this admin.
Show me the Engines of Growth ...you just haven't being paying attention. But that's ok, you've been busy.
The only Engine of Growth is the Paperprestigitizer.
It's a free money provider. Debt no longer matters. It never did.
got a problem...bail it out
Citizens have now been converted to the Free money tree paradigm.
CR (with respect and plenty of snark)
1) where is FED and Treasury intervention on that chart ?
2) where is bailing out private corporations ?
3) where is rigging the bankruptcy courts?
4) where is funnelling billions through insolvent insurance companies to new bank-holding companies?
Are those leading, lagging, or just plain sad indicators ?
Growth may come if the "American Idol" judges wear Nascar style jackets and hats with sponsors plastered all over them.
"The next contestant is brought to you by the makers of Viagra" ..............
I second ShortCourage's comments.
Nemo,
Speaking of financial innovation (aka fraud) here's a speech Timmay Geithner gave back in 2004. As you can imagine, Timmay assumed that the financial innovations were beneficial for the economy, not just for year end banker bonuses.
Change and Challenges Facing the U.S. Financial System - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
"Would that be with or without a bondholder haircut?"
You need to ask Bill Gross that question.
Here is a "huh" to put next to how nat gas is performing - the VIX today:
VIX
"Would that be with or without a bondholder haircut?"
just a wax job on the hairy breasts
i once sat next to these old dudes on a plane who where talking about getting hip replacement surgeries to improve their golf handicaps. they had to wait until they were eligible for medicare.
Lifestyle drugs.
Anxiety drugs.
You need to ask Bill Gross that question.
If BG isn't running around CNBC with his hair on fire then a I think we already know the answer to that question.
Next?
Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 12:27 pm CR: (1) In recent recessions, unemployment significantly lagged the end of the recession. That is very likely this time too.
How do people buy these houses and PCEs without income (either wages or debt)?
This is my question too. Merely hanging onto existing jobs doesn't stimulate anything.
For example, the people who are retaining their jobs in and around the state capitol are the people who have been in their lines of work for 10 yrs or more. But these people already own their homes and have pretty much bought everything they need. So what is left at the micro level to give RI and PCE the gas it needs to restart the engine?
America is a classic rock act. No new material. A lot of money spent on making it look like the last 40 years hasn't happened, can't hit some of the notes. Eveything is dependent on merchandising and nostalgia.
This recession to end
Next recession to begin in 3 months
Over? Ha! The fools...
i once sat next to these old dudes on a plane who where talking about getting hip replacement surgeries to improve their golf handicaps. they had to wait until they were eligible for medicare.
Morons.
I know a guy who lost a leg when his hip transplant went bad [blood clot & infection]... my FIL has had three transplants on the same hip... after the first one he fell on it and the bone around the stem cracked & never healed... the next one pulled out because the glue didn't hold... third one finally took.
He'd rather be shot then get a fourth.
America is a classic rock act
maybe we should let the boomers get into cocaine and disco again
Let me guess who will lead us out of the recession? Repo man, BK attorneys, Foreclosure sales. For get anything? The problem this time is the fall of the recession may be called but the velocity that the consumer hit bottom was Mach 3. Splat Will he bounce back as in history before? Nope, the rock of debt dropped right on top of him and it is a biggie. Long time till search parties even find the consumer little own have a wallet thick enough to find. Flat line for a long time.
IMO natgas has hit the storage capacity wall in the face of very low demand.
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Wait until all those tankers as arbitrage plays disgorge and you'll see the same with distillates.
energy-zero hedge has some comments on that vix thingy....or bloomberg
The VIX rose with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a sign from the options market that the steepest three-day rally for stocks since June is poised to end.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, as the VIX is known, added 1.7 percent to 25.44 at 2 p.m. in New York. The S&P 500 gained 2.4 percent. They have moved in the same direction 6 percent of the time since January 2003, according to data compiled by Charles Schwab Corp. The S&P 500 reversed course the next day 66 percent of the time, including seven of the past nine instances.
“That is remarkable,” Randy Frederick, head of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas, said of the tandem move by the S&P 500 and VIX today. “The VIX is expecting something here, either a pull back this afternoon or tomorrow.”
Both indexes rose on July 6. The next day, the S&P 500 retreated 2 percent. The volatility benchmark, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” because it almost always increases as stocks fall, reflects expectations for price swings for the next 30 days and is calculated from S&P 500 options that are one or two months from expiration. Higher levels signal more risk in equities. "
Currency crashes, market soars. Go figure.
He'd rather be shot then get a fourth.
Masochist eh?
Not One Cent, even with a jobless recovery you usually see a pickup in RI and PCE - because the people with jobs feel more secure and start spending again
Obviously the unemployed don't feel the recovery until sometime later. I think a large percentage of U.S families have been in a recession since early 2001.
best wishes
PaperPrestidigitizer News:
Colorado to become 17'th State to offer a free cell phone and monthly minutes to the indigent.
WestSac_grrl: So what is left at the micro level to give RI and PCE the gas it needs to restart the engine?
Nothing, so enter Keynesian government debt binge to drug American children and bomb Afghan children.
It feels like they are setting up for some very big and bad news. They know it's gonna fall, so make it fall from a higher level. Everything in the last 48 hours seems very orchestrated for pump.
" Oh, it's gonna be PCE.
PCE that is given a pop by the next stimulus package which gives 500 bucks to people. "
Gift cards with a short expiry date is my guess. I believe it has been mentioned here before.
I think a large percentage of U.S families have been in a recession since early 2001.
Meaning that PCE has been low since then? or just that the PCE has been concentrated in a smaller part of the population than "normal"?
edit: quotes for "normal"
"It feels like they are setting up for some very big and bad news."
brown pants?
Meaning that PCE has been low since then? or just that the PCE has been concentrated in a smaller part of the population than normal?
Papered over by ZIRP, HPA & resultant MEW.
that pig is trading on a 10 nin. time delay
"
"It feels like they are setting up for some very big and bad news."
brown pants?"
I just wear depends now instead. Cuts down on the dry-cleaning bills on the odd day I still look at those 3 lonely short positions I'm still sitting on.
It feels like they are setting up for some very big and bad news. They know it's gonna fall, so make it fall from a higher level. Everything in the last 48 hours seems very orchestrated for pump.
Either that, or they just want to sell a lot of calls.
"I still think the keys are Residential Investment (RI) and PCE, and therefore I think the recovery will be sluggish. "
It's going to take a lot of Stimulation (TM) to get RI and PCE moving up in any meaningful way, aside from bumping a few inches off the bottom. That's why I keep going back to people like Krugman, even though I despise inflation. The alternative is to let it all burn and start from the ashes, the Mellon solution; and that's not politically feasible or socially advisable. Although our new Chinese overlords might be merciful.
I would like people to get off the free cell phone thing.
It's one of the cheapest services govt. can offer to help indigent people get back on their feet.
It helps to connect them to family, friends, networks, services and jobs -- all of which are necessary to get out of poverty. You can't require somebody to contact potential employers if they can't get phone access.
There aren't very many pay phones left, even if you can stir up change.
Of course, most indigent don't have PCs and Internet.
There's a streak of cruelty in some comments.
Some of the indigent are your former friends, fellow workers and neighbors.
It feels like they are setting up for some very big and bad news. They know it's gonna fall, so make it fall from a higher level. Everything in the last 48 hours seems very orchestrated for pump.
Rich- I'm thinking same....
corus and guarantee, plus wipe out ZIT bondholders and shareholders?
rich,
It is because some like to see others hurt. They get off on it.
cr - the reason you cant believe the Fed came out with this forecast is that you are still in denial as to the seriousness of the policy of hope, and how fully the Fed is on board with it. It's full on propaganda and spin at this point, which is about that is left in the toolbag once youve boxed yourself in with the financial system status quo.
"There's a streak of cruelty in some comments."
Coping mechanism. Despise those who have failed as weaklings, so that you can separate yourself from the possibility of it happening to your noble self. And you don't have to question any of your assumptions about life, the economy, or anything.
"setting it up to fall from a higher level"
That's what's been done since march...it's all orchestrated with the constant barrage of crap we've been getting that passes for statistics.
*uck them all......I just don't know what else can be said about it any longer
People that have no business walking around (like from outside of a jail) are continuing to profit immensely from this crap-fest.
There is little we can do about it...from a mechanical standpoint. What, in god's name, is it going to take? I really wish there was an outlet for this but there does not appear to be one since the masses see that they've only lost 35% now instead of the 45% a few months ago-and that was for a week maybe?
Ciao
MS
It's the flaw of aggregate perspective on economy.
If the economy has turned, by definition, it means equal or more sectors of the economy is finally making more / enough money to grow.
Those sectors will be increasing employment, capacity and wages.
At the same time, there'll be sectors still shedding jobs, hence UE goes up.
From a consumer demand perspective, after being UE for a while, and suddenly getting "relief" from having a new job, is the best way to get some PCE going from "pent up demand". At the very least, these people will eat out to celebrate a new job, that's PCE right there.
Thus, PCE and RI can go up, even if UE goes down.
However, suppose you have a jobless recovery... then wages/employment never goes up, RI/PCE never happens...
That's the danger.
I don't see "Bernanke Picks the Pockets of the Future" on the list of financial engines. That's a legitimate source... we even have a prominent Nobel winner who'll say so.
What cause are the prophets of doom going to pontificate on and bond around in three months after it is clear that recession ended and national housing prices bottomed in June (Feb. in my market)? Global Warming? The swine flu? Population stresses? That Y2012 problem? Indeflation (prices inflating and deflating simultaneously)?