I suppose I'll be seeing those signs on the local Highways also.
Stormtrooper: Let me see your identification.
Obi-Wan: [with a small wave of his hand] You don't need to see his identification.
Stormtrooper: We don't need to see his identification.
Obi-Wan: These aren't the droids you're looking for.
Stormtrooper: These aren't the droids we're looking for.
Obi-Wan: He can go about his business.
Stormtrooper: You can go about your business.
Obi-Wan: Move along.
Stormtrooper: Move along... move along.
"It took the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee over a year and half after the 2001 recession ended to call the trough of the cycle. And it took 21 months after the 1990-1991 recession ended for NBER to date the end of the recession."
Apples and oranges; they waited until after the Clinton inauguration so that he could claim credit for the "longest peacetime expansion". Now they'll need to declare it over early in time for folks to have forgotten it by the midterms.
Merrill and Lynch, long in their graves, were tired of this recession talk. Ken Lewis was listening to them, and got an inspiration. BOA just needed to pump up the happy talk and all would be well.
Even if it were true: the MSM and establishment use "recession" as a synonym for "hard times." So that if the recession is over, the hard times for Joe Citizen are ending. And by recent history we know that's not true.
But it's a nice metric to mislead people with. Me, I'd like a "Hard Times" metric; but that would be too telling, and thus not useful to government.
Doom and gloomers - the world will never end. This is part of the normal business cycle. Boom and busts have happened over and over again in the 400+ years of modern finance...
what does recession over mean? That the government is spending trillions to boost/levitate an artificial gdp number so the people at NBER can say its over based on a technical calculation. perfect "news" for CNBC. I suppose the new MSM meme is jobless recovery , oxymoron notwithstanding. Last time we had a jobless recovery was 2002 and wecreated a housing bubble on easy credit. What this time. While the pundits cheer the rising equity makrt, down goes bucky, this while Timbo is over professing his strong dollar. Market believes you Tim.
Recession over a technicality based on blowing up the governement balance sheet - if it actually happens. Anyone taking this seriously braindead.
Doom and gloomers - the world will never end. This is part of the normal business cycle. Boom and busts have happened over and over again in the 400+ years of modern finance...
..so what next year is quadrillion talk? and jump right over the trillion speak or do we just keep talking up the trillions to 100 trillion.....silliness...= Yawnage...
i've had several more inquiries for my car wash, even though i haven't listed it. evidently, there's a demand for old-school quarters-only car washes (think 6 concrete bays) that don't have any type of sales tracking (other than water usage).
Maybe this is a ploy to get the State of CA to revise revenue estimates and declare a much smaller budget shortfall. That would make a lot of people very happy, well..... at least until the revenue didn't actually materialize.
German magazine "Spiegel online" declared the recession is over because Goldman's profit was so large. "The recession is over for Goldman". So it must be over.
Well....they did say we'd have a 2nd half recovery.....right? Wouldn't want to spoil the party real or not now.
Gotta walk the walk at least. For the millions of people who voted Obama in with the whole "change and hope" BS this proclamation fits right up that alley. May be if they say it a few thousand times people will really believe it. However many of those voters are now unemployed and see the reality instead of the perception.
I'm no fan of Bush politics however it was better IMO when he just didn't do anything constructive about the crisis unfolding on his watch......never-mind being the enabler of a large chunk of it. This is much worse from the standpoint of the rhetoric we are getting about people having made sacrifices in the current (oh wait...it's over!!) recession. I suspect many people who are still alive from the GD have got to see that no one has made much of any sacrifice other than to not shop as much.
" rapunzel (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 12:48 pm
German magazine "Spiegel online" declared the recession is over because Goldman's profit was so large. "The recession is over for Goldman". So it must be over."
If you don't supply a link, how do we know if you're not snarking? Sounds more like the Onion
It depends on how you define recession. If the recession ends when the economy stops contracting, then I think that will happen over the summer, though I expect a double dip to kick in during the second half of 2010. In reality, the recession won't be over until the economy regains it's Q4/2007 peak, which BoA/ML can look forward to happening around 2014.
I think looking at corporate earnings is misleading. Earnings is roughly revenue - expenses. So if revenue shrank 10%, but management had anticipated the contraction and cut labour and other expenses by 15% ... lather rinse repeat .... and you have good earnings all the way to 0.
Even if the recession ended last month, the stock market is still overvalued.
Can it still go up? Of course. For awhile. But awhile may not be as long as some people think. There's definitely a program trading driven pump going on, maybe the biggest of all time, but it almost guarantees a big dump on the public.
I have an idea! Create a recovery with marketing. Or even, have a recovery OF marketing where people just bullshit for money, every one of us scamming the other out of their resources.
The outrage that we all feel towards Wall Street and Goldman Sachs is just the tip of the iceberg. The real question is who is 'feeding' the beast? The real question is the underlying systemic breakdown of our debt ridden financial system that no longer works and is riddled with special interests and ruthless secretive players who are now standing in the halls of the Senate, like Senator Ben Nelson who purposely blocked S604 that would shine the sunlight on the Federal Reserve and give a through and transparent house cleaning that is long overdue.
At one time in our history the Federal Reserve was charged with maintaining an independent stature so that it would not become the highly compromised organization that it is today. Today the Federal Reserve works solely for the benefit of the Wall Street Banksta Ganstas, and undermines the public interest.
Why did Senator Nelson and the Senate President illegally block this bill in the hearing? What are they so afraid of that we will all learn? What are they hiding behind our backs that is so terrible that we, the very people who are paying their salaries cannot see? I urge each of you to support Senator Sanders in his S604 bill and also HR 1207 to audit the Federal Reserve and to call your representatives to support those bills in the Senate and House, respectively.
It is our country, it is our government, it is our MONEY.
I think Merrill is front running their own forecast (BTW is it just my tin foil hat or does anyone else see something fishy in the volumes at close prior to Meredith's GS call?). It's classic pump and dump. They're obviously incapable of actually doing real finance; you know, allocating capital to productive undertakings.
"Wow, can we get Merrill to declare California's troubles over?"
I get all my financial advice from bankrupt people. I figure they know what mistakes not to make. I like to pay them extra after they lose money so as not to hurt their self esteem. No banker left behind.
@ Eric (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 9:57 am
Why did Senator Nelson and the Senate President illegally block this bill in the hearing?
In what way is what they did "illegal"?
why don't you to DKos and ask the author of the post.
km4
But Magic Ben Bernanke said the world would end if the Fed was audited. We can't have the world ending can we? No peeping behind the curtain, no one gets to see the wizard, no one.
Well what with government spending being added to GDP while government debt is not in any way subtracted... sure, the recession (conveniently defined in terms of GDP growth or lack thereof) can be over any time we want. I recommend subtracting the amount of the federal deficit from the GDP and seeing how the number looks after that adjustment. Not so pretty.
Nope just lifted those 3 excepts and missed the word illegal in first pass. But the rest of his diary asks some very good questions and I agree with overall tone and tenor.
"It is our country, it is our government, it is our MONEY. "
It will not be our country and government again until all the money is gone an we are stuck repossessing it. It is not OUR money any way. It is federal reserve notes. No "our" about it.
You are using their money. Use something else if you don't like them.
Ronald D. Orol WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Obama administration on Wednesday plans to send a proposal to Capitol Hill that would require hedge fund managers and private equity managers with more than $30 million in assets under management register with the Securities and Exchange Commission and open up their books to periodic examinations, according to remarks by Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael Barr on regulatory reform. The White House proposal, which is backed by the Treasury Department, will also require hedge fund managers to disclose to regulators and investors more information about the characteristics of their hedge funds. Fund managers will need to provide more details about asset size, borrowings and any off-balance sheet exposure.
that part (the 'handing' off to retail) is just further bolstered by the "points" that BAC is trying to make with this report. Reduce Cash.......yea people are going to reduce cash alright but it's going to be in a way they didn't expect. There is nothing in the release that identifies any fundamental reason to put that cash to work. They want it for the hand-off that needs to happen or we get another "tanks in the street's" mantra.
Nice video above of DK crying for his cell phone, invoking his daughter, who has only his cell phone number memorized. Never heard of call forwarding I guess. What a drip.
OT: I have a greenish shoot to report -- though it's probably a thistle;
A local contractor friend has noticed an uptick in bid requests; some if it just may be sharp customers trying to get as many bids as possible, but a couple of the people he talked to lately were interested in adding a room to their house rather than trading up to a new, larger one (Yeah, move-up is still possible -- if you bought 20 years ago and didn't withdraw equity up 'til now.) And what they tell him is, they see no reason to is sending $30-40K of their money to real estate agents as part of the buy/sell transactions, just to get more space. So why not just add a room?
That attitude would be a green shoot for the small-time contractor; but a major foxtail in the shoe for the real estate market, homebuilders, etc.
Just got in from working in the Urban Oasis.
sorry if this is a repost:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Obama administration on Wednesday plans to send a proposal to Capitol Hill that would require hedge fund managers and private equity managers with more than $30 million in assets under management to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission and open their books to examinations, according to remarks by Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael Barr on regulatory reform.
"These firms continue to present unknown risks, and that lack of transparency is no longer tenable," said Barr. "We need a system that lets regulators see risks as they emerge across the financial system."
Can someone explain why the market is up nearly 200 points?
Did Wall St. get a new HopiumHookah?
I'm curious - how many people here are permabears and how many people here are simply just bearish given the current economic reality?
Some interwebs market talking heads (fairly bearish folks) I follow have gotten less bearish recently - notably Kevin Depew at minyanville. He seems to think for the long term, anything under S&P 900 is a decent buy.
Have the coming wave of 2010 foreclosures been 'priced in' to the capital markets? Has the fallout from any capital market disruptions and future unemployment increases been priced into the equities market? What about the CRE stuff going down? State budget implosions?
And, further, "Der Rest der US-Wirtschaft steckt weiter in der Rezession, die Arbeitslosenquote steigt, Washington debattiert sogar über ein zweites Konjunkturprogramm."
They said Goldman had left the recession behind; they didn't say the recession itself was over. Anything but, in fact.
I am a bear until we actually start to make things again.
We improve our educational system.
We live within our means and save.
The financial system looks beyond today and compensation is changed.
We get rid of lobbying so the banks do not run the country.
I do believe things will change
Read the fourth turning.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Calpers, the biggest U.S. public pension fund, has sued the three largest credit rating agencies for giving perfect grades to securities that later suffered huge subprime mortgage losses.
The California Public Employees' Retirement System said in a lawsuit filed last week in California Superior Court in San Francisco that it might lose more than $1 billion from structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, that received top grades from Moody's Investors Service Inc, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Inc.
msshine,
"I am a bear until we actually start to make things again."
You know - I think manufacturing is going to have a renaissance here. Several bigshot Silly-con valley types are fleeing the bay area for places like Ohio. What is in Ohio? Manufacturing...
asset appreciation requires more buyers than sellers. Boomer savings and foreign investors provided the run-up in S&P during the 1980s-1990s . During the 2000s, housing was the asset du jour.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Obama administration on Wednesday plans to send a proposal to Capitol Hill that would require hedge fund managers and private equity managers with more than $30 million in assets under management to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission and open their books to examinations, according to remarks by Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael Barr on regulatory reform.
it didn't start with Obama....Paulsen decided to take out the competition to his old firm with a few cute tricks last year...you might remember removing the arbitrage opps. that hedgies had by banning shorts. His goal is just being carried on by the same people who had a major part in assisting it's implementation, i.e Geithner, Summers, Graham (who incidentally, while not conducting black-hole experiments at UBS, has been really quiet lately) and several others.
The other side of it is so that this administration can pass along some of that key information to the goldman people so that they can have even more risk-free trading opps. and continue the perpetuating money machine, regardless of any fundamentals a sector has. Just like those poker sites that allow people to hack into the program and see everyone's cards before the bet is made. There is ZERO risk regardless of any real issues you might have with pesky things such as fundamental analysis.
This is just another ruse of more regulation....you really think the regulators (who will have all this new found "support" to actually do a job they were supposedly doing in the first place) are just going to keep all that information to themselves? It's basically setting up a direct conduit to see the books of all major market player's under the guise of protecting us little people.
HomeGnome,
Checked out your homepage, have to hide it from the wife, or she might start making demands above and beyond my usual fare. lol, just kidding, everything looks delicious. Philosophically, you have an epicurean tilt, I would wager...not a bad life at all. Thanks for sharing.
For recession to be over like my April 10 call they will have to get in front of state tax shortfalls.
Apex of W recession was July 08.
Re intel:: Asia VP was on CNBS world and said that netbooks basically saved their Q and isn't expecting anything from windows 7 to jumpstart the orderbook.
If you have bearish sentiment regarding market valuations that doesn't mean you have to be bearish in everything else everywhere. You still have to be in business.
dont worry McCully from Pimco says the solution is to follow Krugman and for the central bank to act irresponsibly. The level of depravity knows no end. His article is so totally unserious as to be laughable. Maybe he should explore his implicit assumption that the status quo ex anti is a fait accompli.
dont worry McCully from Pimco says the solution is to follow Krugman and for the central bank to act irresponsibly. The level of depravity knows no end. His article is so totally unserious as to be laughable. Maybe he should explore his implicit assumption that the status quo ex anti is a fait accompli.
CNBC breaking news - economists sign petition to maintain its independence - straw man to try and lobby the "people" against the HR audit bill. Have we been transported to Venezuela/
If you want to see the ultimate bubble, try Saudi Arabia. That is where I'm sitting at the moment. Nothing will be right in the world until everyone sending all of their money here comes to an end. Gawd what a reckoning that will be.
"If you have bearish sentiment regarding market valuations that doesn't mean you have to be bearish in everything else everywhere. You still have to be in business."
You obviously don't read or post on TickerForum. On that board you're liable to be lashed 40 times with rusty barbed wire if you imply that things are getting better. And into the stockade if you intimate that Asia is decoupling.
I'm a bear until the internet is irrelevant because ultimately, rapidly diminishing resources and rapidly expanding population lead to poorer, more frugal people.
You can't stop the process without a lot of pain.
Poorer, more frugal people still lead rewarding, enriching, and fulfilling lives.
"We're heading to Umbria, Italy (right along the Tuscan border) in Sept for a food and wine vacation.
I can't wait!"
Lucky DOG!! We were in the Dordogne region of France a few years ago. My oh my the fois gras was to die for and the trucker road-side cafe's gave 3 star SF restaurants a real run for the money.
Yalt, I cannot see the sentence that you quote in the article by Mr. Pitzke. I looked three times, maybe my eyes have alphabet overload. There is a little balancing by a Meredith Whitney quote, and a Matt Taibbi reference thrown in, although no one knows who that is over there.
In any case, there is too much looking up to "Platzhirsch" Goldman in the German media. And the word recession is treated all too casually...don't you agree that the gist is that all the worrisome stuff is over?
I'm pleased and happy to repeat the news that we have, in fact, caught and killed a large predator that supposedly injured some bathers. But, as you see, it's a beautiful day, the beaches are open and people are having a wonderful time. Amity, as you know, means "friendship".
Spending four years in Germany, we traveled a lot, this was in the early-mid 80s, so the dollar went a long way. We ate at a lot of 'heavenly' restaurants. I really like German food, but northern Italy, and this spot in the Netherlands, I can still taste the food. Also a little Greek place actually in Germany, was to die for as well. When we came back to the states...Olive Garden and the occasional search for a good steak house or bbq...just wasn't the same. People wonder why military brats are so screwed up...
In regards to the market I am quite content to sit on the sidelines for sometime, perhaps forever. I simply don't want to play the game anymore. I rolled all my retirement money into treasuries 9-3-08 and I have been there ever since.
hedgefunds and private equity didn't cause the problems....exacerbate them? yes I agree with that. However no one told these large banks to take trillion $ balance sheets into 2007 leveraged at 40:1 (in some cases much higher). While I support regulations they have to be enforced (which was not done for the most part). But trying to establish more of them under the guise of protecting the market from those evil short selling hedgies is not the way to do it. This will only lead to the goldman's of the world getting information they should not have and then putting out reports such as yesterday's each and every qtr. Meanwhile the overall country falls deeper into the shit-pile while the few remaining banks profit on largely illegally obtained information through the conduit of yet more regualtions.
msshine,
"I am a bear until we actually start to make things again."
You know - I think manufacturing is going to have a renaissance here. Several bigshot Silly-con valley types are fleeing the bay area for places like Ohio. What is in Ohio? Manufacturing...
I just received a pretty large RFQ to make parts for a company in Ohio just in the last 15 minutes - called the dude & turns out their current supplier is failing and will shut down maybe as soon as later today. I hear that all over - was on another call this morning with a buyer in Missouri - her supply chain is just being rocked too. We'll be meeting with her in a few weeks if not sooner.
Those in mfg who aren't overly leveraged and are 'low cost' [reasonable labor rates, not too much 'useless' management, appropriate capital structure] are going to rock coming out of this... those who don't fit that description are either dead or terminal.
Back to the salt mine - see you all tonight on the 'night shift'.
Gawd where do I start. Fundamentally, the bottom line is almost zero work ethic for about 80% of the people I deal with, who are overpaid to sit in their offices and surf the internet all day. Rapidly growing population (average household size is 6.2) where the lower and middle classes don't have a lot of interest in studying hard sciences or math; many graduate college but few have marketable skills but are deeply versed in Islamic Education. The business elite is fantastic to deal with: US-educated mostly, hard-working, savvy but fair, generous but fair. But the work ethic is totally and completely abysmal for the other 80%. But the elite are terrified of the low to middle class, so nothing changes and everything is stratied.
I actually heard a comment on Dubai talk radio last year that one of the local s(10% of the population there rather than Saudi's 50% local population) said they thought no Emiratis should have to work, and foreigners should be brought in to do all of the work. Because Emiratis don't like to work, he said. Only 3% of Emiratis have a college educated, but the average income there is $68,000.
"In regards to the market I am quite content to sit on the sidelines for sometime, perhaps forever. I simply don't want to play the game anymore. I rolled all my retirement money into treasuries 9-3-08 and I have been there ever since. "
My parents are ultra conservative and have been basically in CDs for the last 20 years in Canada and the UK. They were looking pretty stupid for 19 of those 20 years. Now they're looking pretty smart. They're in their early 70s so no way would they be able to recover from a 50% shellacking during their lifetime given that they need to start drawing down on that money now.
Sorry, Rapunzel, my quote was from the next day's (today's) article on Goldman, not the one you linked
No, I don't agree on the gist, especially after I read today's article. The claim seems to be that the worrisome stuff is over for Goldman, not for the US economy as a whole. I can't say I disagree--in fact, the worse things get, the better for the conduit, it seems to me.
It's true that they confined themselves to "recession", though. Die Zeit's been using the D-word for months--in general the German press has been much more negative (I started to write "honest") throughout.
"I'm not sure this counts as quitting the game. Treasuries could be in for a beating. "
A lot of my money is sitting in ultra-short term Treasuries. Can't see a beating if you are sitting on very short duration notes. Of course I'm not making anything either which is fine by me right now.
My take is that many Westerners think this place is screwed when we weaned overselves off of oil. The Arab view, a somewhat cynical society at times, I think is that when the time comes that we've weaned ourselves off of oil that will be least of our problems (kind of like Kunstler's worldview). I'm not really sure which one will win out.
"Based on what metric? Declines in second derivative sucker supply numbers? "
I can't remember exactly - but my point is not so much whether he is right or not. My point is here is an extreme bear, very bearish before the whole poopstorm broke, now he is getting optimistic (at least over a 20 year time span)
He did say since then that he thinks the S&P might hit 600 or so...
Which is worse,
Wasn't trying to suggest that they weren't. My father is an honorary member of a Bedouin family. If you know anything about the culture, you know how hard that is. Two edged sword for me. There are qualities I dearly wish we would rediscover in America, but there is baggage I never want to see here. A friend of my wife in college (both programmers for the university at the time) was from Saudi Arabia. She and her brother shared a huge house in a rich suburb of Houston. She worked, had a masters, and was working on a Phd. Brother didn't go to school, partied and was waiting to go back home. She was terrified after 9/11. Afraid she would have to go home and give up driving and other freedoms she enjoyed here.
On the previous thread re: chemical weapons, gases: they're still around. Remember the 2004 Sarin scare in Iraq? According to Wiki, Sarin is similar to malathion in its mechan ism of action, like carbamates in biologic activity. Both malathion & carbamates (sevin, for example), are common & widely used in the US. Sarin is classified as a WMD. Sarin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I made the mistake of watching the CNBC shill. What a maroon. No hard data at all, just pushing commish for the brokers. The only interesting thing was the pie chart showing how the uber-rich invest. Not much in stocks at all, as it turns out, mostly fixed income, cash, etc. And yet the shill was dissing this, saying they "ought" to be 50% in stocks! Hello?!
It just shows how the shills can twist the message, and if the herd is not paying attention, it will go along with the headline regardless of reality. It seems like the only options are to stay out of the game, or go momentum.
I live in the South Loop of Chicago, probably the most overbuilt area in northern IL. Condo high rise buildings are still being built. Three months ago I posted that a new 240 unit building had been open for six months and was still 80% empty. Then they auctioned off 25% of the units after promoting the hell out of the auction. Then they lowered the prices of the unsold units to the auction sales price.
Now less than 25 units are listed foresale. (don't know how many, if any, are in foreclosure).
"Some interwebs market talking heads (fairly bearish folks) I follow have gotten less bearish recently - notably Kevin Depew at minyanville. He seems to think for the long term, anything under S&P 900 is a decent buy."
Excellent, he has been conditioned (think Pavlov).
If it isn't clear to everyone that BB is targeting a 900 on the S&P, you haven't been paying attention.
That is what central banks do, they target price levels.
Not much choice there, Which is worse - bankers or terrorists, and we seldom drive more than five miles at any one time. This is in DC, which has one of the better public transportation systems.
"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Obama administration on Wednesday plans to send a proposal to Capitol Hill that would require hedge fund managers and private equity managers with more than $30 million in assets under management to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission and open their books to examinations, according to remarks by Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael Barr on regulatory reform."
Hedge Funds = Competition for Goldman
Has everyone figured out yet who BHO really works for?
Sorry for the sidetrack everyone but that is amazing about your father being an honorary member of the Bedouins. Wow.
Yes, not saying the KSA doesn't have its limitations, but it is interesting to watch the country evolve so quickly.
I was also in Yemen about a month ago. I don't think people quite realize is that is what Saudi would be without oil. Basically, borderline civil war, which is where Yemen is currently headed. I don't think people quite get how unstable the MENA region will become without oil; we're currently just scratching the surface.
I suspect many people who are still alive from the GD have got to see that no one has made much of any sacrifice other than to not shop as much.
A media-interviewed woman who lost her job said that she no longer can afford to eat out all the time but, even though she has more time now, she only buys (expensive) pre-made, frozen meals because it makes her feel busy and cooking her own food would be inappropriate for her lifestyle image and too depressing.
U.S. automaker General Motors (GM) announced July 15 that it plans to invest about $1 billion through 2012 at its plants in Brazil to develop a new family of vehicles for South America, Reuters reported. Jaime Ardila, GM’s chief executive for Brazil and South America’s Mercosur region, said most of the money will be invested in the Gravatai factory in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, where the company plans expansion in order to increase production capacity. Ardila said the investment would help boost GM’s capacity to more than 1 million units a year in Brazil."
Is today's rally based entirely on Intel surpassing bogus expectations? - burn
Not entirely, but the market likes that Intel did sort-of O.K. despite the doom, and despite the EU fine. Also, Intel shed an awful lot of people (expenses) in the last few years, Quietly, by attrition. And AMD is nowhere. I'm going to be paying attention to NASDAQ futures, myself.
Edit: Full disclosure: I have to pay attention to Intel, because my husband works there.
"Married couples in Kuwait get a house for a wedding present."
We can have that here too if everyone would just do exactly what they are told and if all women would only be allowed to leave the house in giant hamster wheels... or burkas.
I would add, it isn't Obama who is obsessed with hedge funds at all. That guy is nothing more than a puppet. Geithner and Summers are the ones pulling the strings on financial regulation.
" Eric (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 1:03 pm
why don't you to DKos and ask the author of the post.
You quoted it... I assumed you agreed with it, and could explain it to me."
I'll explain it to you. Anything that folks on the DK don't like they deem illegal, e.g. "Bush's 'illegal' war". Note that CONgress et al signed off on it, whether you agree with it or not. Please don't invite those folks to come post over. I'd like to think we have them "contained" over at the DK.
"Meanwhile the overall country falls deeper into the shit-pile while the few remaining banks profit on largely illegally obtained information through the conduit of yet more regualtions."
Yes, that is the plan, isn't it?
What is GS other than a hedge fund? Look at how they make their money these days. But they get Fed backing, FDIC backing, etc.
In exchange, they carry out the monetary policies the Fed and Treasury can't do (or be caught doing).
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 5:28 pm
If you want to see the ultimate bubble, try Saudi Arabia. That is where I'm sitting at the moment. Nothing will be right in the world until everyone sending all of their money here comes to an end. Gawd what a reckoning that will be.
I have been wondering about the Saudi monoculture economy for years. UAE is also a bubble but at least they tried diversification.
The Mafia can flourish in the midst of a crumbling society.
So it is with modern day Wall Street. They are leeches and scam artists. They paid no price for their previous crimes. So they are free to happily move on to the next generation of scams.
For the rest of us, the recession may be over, but the depression is about to begin. What I see around me are cascading waves of layoffs, business failures, foreclosures and defaults. And mostly I see fear. Fear in the eyes of the people over 40 who either lost their job or are about to lose their job.
Good to hear that I'm not just being consumed by the conspiratorial aspect of it. What's frightening to me is that this occurs in plain sight...it is not that hard to see...if one chooses to see it. I keep hearing anecdotal information about GS being levered to something like 1000:1 but I can't find anything that supports it (not that I'm looking for an announcement per se) but that would fit rather neatly into the fact that the market is not even allowed a 5% pullback..let alone a decent, real Fib. re-tracement. I also know and understand that TA is largely useless now and if it is allowed to hit some tech. levels it's only been to sucker in the next bunch of shorts for fuel to the upside.
I went to visit my family this last week and was a bit disappointed to see the Obama "hope" tome' AND a campaign flyer very prominently displayed in the office. I said nothing.....
rich,
I don't know. Let's just say my dad was gone more than he was around growing up. Lots of medals, and some neat photos with various 'known' people but tight lipped and no stories. My mom gets mad at him, guess there is some stuff declassified now, but he still doesn't talk about any of it. Always says he was part of a team, never a hero. He hates camels though. Spit on him. So I doubt it was 'camel skills'.
Dennis the menace. I can understand why he's optimistic... He's an idiot that should be unemployed but instead gets to be a weather man. If the markets were efficient Dennis would be dropping off my WSJ every morning. Why does he have to dance, shout and act like Conan? Nobody is actually taking him seriously regardless of what he does. Anyways... I've wasted enough time.
Yalt, you are probably gone, but what irked me about how Spiegel worded the situation, is that recession has nothing to do with one single company's earnings improving, no matter how large that company/earnings is. That R word should not be used like the author has. It suggests (suggeriert) a connection that is not there - sloppy and suggestive writing. Denkfaul.
Is this the same Merrill Lynch and BOA advisors that said they were financially sound last year? And is this the same Dennis Kneal that has now called the bottom and the recession over 34 times. Ok Dennis nice Comedy Show you just put on now leave the stage and get your bonus check from the guy with the big set of veneers, I think his name is Ken?
snort
These guys are too funny
Mission Accomplished!
This is coming from the same Merrill that stuck it to BofA/the taxpayers with early bonuses?
Have the political campaigns started already?
Merrill Lynch is Bullshitting America.
Number crunchers and reality have crashed before. The recession is really over when America is working and free of excesive government control.
The stock market agrees that the recession is over. As much as I'd like to disagree with the stock market, its probably smarter than I am.
i hate that they moved DK to the same time slot as Keith Olbermann. Don't know who is more entertaining to watch...
I suppose I'll be seeing those signs on the local Highways also.
Stormtrooper: Let me see your identification.
Obi-Wan: [with a small wave of his hand] You don't need to see his identification.
Stormtrooper: We don't need to see his identification.
Obi-Wan: These aren't the droids you're looking for.
Stormtrooper: These aren't the droids we're looking for.
Obi-Wan: He can go about his business.
Stormtrooper: You can go about your business.
Obi-Wan: Move along.
Stormtrooper: Move along... move along.
Recession is over because we have in recession long enough.
Never mind rising unemployment, rising alt-a & prime mortgages.
Everyone likes to say that the 'recession' will be over soon, but that the job losses will continue at least into next year.....in the same breath!
and they see nothing wrong with that?
so when do we start seeing a picture of a bull on magazines again?
"It took the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee over a year and half after the 2001 recession ended to call the trough of the cycle. And it took 21 months after the 1990-1991 recession ended for NBER to date the end of the recession."
Apples and oranges; they waited until after the Clinton inauguration so that he could claim credit for the "longest peacetime expansion". Now they'll need to declare it over early in time for folks to have forgotten it by the midterms.
Recession is over and depression is beginning?
Did I skim the article okay?
Merrill and Lynch, long in their graves, were tired of this recession talk. Ken Lewis was listening to them, and got an inspiration. BOA just needed to pump up the happy talk and all would be well.
Just wait until the jobless-recovery starts kicking in...
Even if it were true: the MSM and establishment use "recession" as a synonym for "hard times." So that if the recession is over, the hard times for Joe Citizen are ending. And by recent history we know that's not true.
But it's a nice metric to mislead people with. Me, I'd like a "Hard Times" metric; but that would be too telling, and thus not useful to government.
Right-wing-shills used to be a dime a dozen, but with inflation up they can be bought off for a plugged-nickel.
Perma-bears here missed the rally up....now they are mad...
" Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 12:35 pm
Right-wing-shills used to be a dime a dozen, but with inflation up they can be bought off for a plugged-nickel."
Isn't that an example of "Deflation"? Just askin'?
I see perma-bullshit laying all over the place.
Doom and gloomers - the world will never end. This is part of the normal business cycle. Boom and busts have happened over and over again in the 400+ years of modern finance...
Since we're enjoying a humorous thread here, this news story shouldn't be too off-topic:
"Man's Debit Card Charged 23 Quadrillion, $15 Overdraft Fee"
Man's Debit Card Charged $23 Quadrillion, $15 Overdraft Fee - Money News Story - WMUR Manchester
"I thought somebody had bought Europe with my credit card," Muszynski said."
Bonds getting destroyed.
Hope nobody was planning to buy a house or refinance.
The investment banks should be happy though.
That's what matters.
what does recession over mean? That the government is spending trillions to boost/levitate an artificial gdp number so the people at NBER can say its over based on a technical calculation. perfect "news" for CNBC. I suppose the new MSM meme is jobless recovery , oxymoron notwithstanding. Last time we had a jobless recovery was 2002 and wecreated a housing bubble on easy credit. What this time. While the pundits cheer the rising equity makrt, down goes bucky, this while Timbo is over professing his strong dollar. Market believes you Tim.
Recession over a technicality based on blowing up the governement balance sheet - if it actually happens. Anyone taking this seriously braindead.
A plugged nickle is 4 cents better than a Liberal straw Pennie.
And now comes the Doom and Gloom bla bla bla...........boring...
"Bonds getting destroyed"
Destroyed? Not sure about that...hyperbole much?
Hope nobody was planning to buy a house or refinance.
I don't look at it as another missed re-fi opportunity.
I look at it as saving a $200 application fee.
I saved money today. Might as well go shopping now.
That's me, one mad bear. I am always a little cranky when my hibernation cycle is interrupted by the putrid smell of bullshit.
This is part of the normal business cycle.
wow.
just wow.
" ac (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 12:37 pm
Bonds getting destroyed."
AC,
Since my 201k is in short term govt. bonds, will I get hammered by this? Just looking for some advanced warning-
@nullpointer
he is joking.
Doom and gloomers - the world will never end. This is part of the normal business cycle. Boom and busts have happened over and over again in the 400+ years of modern finance...
..so what next year is quadrillion talk? and jump right over the trillion speak or do we just keep talking up the trillions to 100 trillion.....silliness...= Yawnage...
its about time!
good times youtube
green shoots.
i've had several more inquiries for my car wash, even though i haven't listed it. evidently, there's a demand for old-school quarters-only car washes (think 6 concrete bays) that don't have any type of sales tracking (other than water usage).
hoocoodanode.
Maybe this is a ploy to get the State of CA to revise revenue estimates and declare a much smaller budget shortfall. That would make a lot of people very happy, well..... at least until the revenue didn't actually materialize.
"The stock market agrees that the recession is over. As much as I'd like to disagree with the stock market, its probably smarter than I am."
Give yourself a little credit. The stock market is a government robot.
Remission Accomplished
Hold on.
Problem Recontained
good, maybe now I can find a new job.
German magazine "Spiegel online" declared the recession is over because Goldman's profit was so large. "The recession is over for Goldman". So it must be over.
BOA; The recession is finished!
Recession: BOA is finished!
Let's just say this world is too small for both a recession and BOA...
Well....they did say we'd have a 2nd half recovery.....right? Wouldn't want to spoil the party real or not now.
Gotta walk the walk at least. For the millions of people who voted Obama in with the whole "change and hope" BS this proclamation fits right up that alley. May be if they say it a few thousand times people will really believe it. However many of those voters are now unemployed and see the reality instead of the perception.
I'm no fan of Bush politics however it was better IMO when he just didn't do anything constructive about the crisis unfolding on his watch......never-mind being the enabler of a large chunk of it. This is much worse from the standpoint of the rhetoric we are getting about people having made sacrifices in the current (oh wait...it's over!!) recession. I suspect many people who are still alive from the GD have got to see that no one has made much of any sacrifice other than to not shop as much.
God help us all..well most of us anyway.
Ciao
MS
Mission Accomplished!
+1
" rapunzel (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 12:48 pm
German magazine "Spiegel online" declared the recession is over because Goldman's profit was so large. "The recession is over for Goldman". So it must be over."
If you don't supply a link, how do we know if you're not snarking? Sounds more like the Onion
May be if they say it a few thousand times people will really believe it.
It was all just a mental recession anyways.
Simple question. Since the recession is over it should be no problem to name the sectors that have led us out. Name them or STFU BofA.
It depends on how you define recession. If the recession ends when the economy stops contracting, then I think that will happen over the summer, though I expect a double dip to kick in during the second half of 2010. In reality, the recession won't be over until the economy regains it's Q4/2007 peak, which BoA/ML can look forward to happening around 2014.
Maybe Merrill is forecasting a big uptick in consumer spending?
What observable phenomena usually lead the way out of a recession?
I think looking at corporate earnings is misleading. Earnings is roughly revenue - expenses. So if revenue shrank 10%, but management had anticipated the contraction and cut labour and other expenses by 15% ... lather rinse repeat .... and you have good earnings all the way to 0.
Even if the recession ended last month, the stock market is still overvalued.
Can it still go up? Of course. For awhile. But awhile may not be as long as some people think. There's definitely a program trading driven pump going on, maybe the biggest of all time, but it almost guarantees a big dump on the public.
I have an idea! Create a recovery with marketing. Or even, have a recovery OF marketing where people just bullshit for money, every one of us scamming the other out of their resources.
Oh, wait.
It was all just a mental recession anyways.
Obviously you are still employed.
OT but of value:
any of you read david rosenbergs' daily analysis?
its really pretty good, and its free (for the time being i suspect).
heavy on the data, methinks you guys would like it.
https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/index.ncl.html
Senate Democrats Block Bill To Audit the Federal Reserve
Daily Kos: Senate Democrats Block Bill To Audit the Federal Reserve
excerpts:
The outrage that we all feel towards Wall Street and Goldman Sachs is just the tip of the iceberg. The real question is who is 'feeding' the beast? The real question is the underlying systemic breakdown of our debt ridden financial system that no longer works and is riddled with special interests and ruthless secretive players who are now standing in the halls of the Senate, like Senator Ben Nelson who purposely blocked S604 that would shine the sunlight on the Federal Reserve and give a through and transparent house cleaning that is long overdue.
At one time in our history the Federal Reserve was charged with maintaining an independent stature so that it would not become the highly compromised organization that it is today. Today the Federal Reserve works solely for the benefit of the Wall Street Banksta Ganstas, and undermines the public interest.
Why did Senator Nelson and the Senate President illegally block this bill in the hearing? What are they so afraid of that we will all learn? What are they hiding behind our backs that is so terrible that we, the very people who are paying their salaries cannot see? I urge each of you to support Senator Sanders in his S604 bill and also HR 1207 to audit the Federal Reserve and to call your representatives to support those bills in the Senate and House, respectively.
It is our country, it is our government, it is our MONEY.
BTW, when do the start recalling the existing stimulus funds since they are no longer needed?
and so if the recession is coming to an end, what pray tell is the underlying, fundamental, source of economic growth?
i see an increase in government spending, financed by debt...anything else?
i support debt stimulus where it is used to build , renewable 21st century energy and transportation and other capital expenditures
i never supported tarp and believe the mass consumer market driven economy is history...good bye and good riddance
end or recession, yeah maybe...leading to economic horse latitudes
i would like nothing better than to be wrong......L shaped recovery
Why did Senator Nelson and the Senate President illegally block this bill in the hearing?
In what way is what they did "illegal"?
Time to party like it's 2005!
I think Merrill is front running their own forecast (BTW is it just my tin foil hat or does anyone else see something fishy in the volumes at close prior to Meredith's GS call?). It's classic pump and dump. They're obviously incapable of actually doing real finance; you know, allocating capital to productive undertakings.
Wow, can we get Merrill to declare California's troubles over?
How prescient were they in the quarter before the recession?
"Senate Democrats Block Bill To Audit the Federal Reserve"
Secret systemic regulators make the best pumps.
Growth will continue to be government.
Obviously you are still employed.
Self employed now, but I was a victim of the May 2008 BFFs... (ANB).
We got half-Nelson'd by a right-wing-shill in a donkey outfit.
"Wow, can we get Merrill to declare California's troubles over?"
I get all my financial advice from bankrupt people. I figure they know what mistakes not to make. I like to pay them extra after they lose money so as not to hurt their self esteem. No banker left behind.
@ Eric (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 9:57 am
Why did Senator Nelson and the Senate President illegally block this bill in the hearing?
In what way is what they did "illegal"?
why don't you to DKos and ask the author of the post.
km4
But Magic Ben Bernanke said the world would end if the Fed was audited. We can't have the world ending can we? No peeping behind the curtain, no one gets to see the wizard, no one.
Well what with government spending being added to GDP while government debt is not in any way subtracted... sure, the recession (conveniently defined in terms of GDP growth or lack thereof) can be over any time we want. I recommend subtracting the amount of the federal deficit from the GDP and seeing how the number looks after that adjustment. Not so pretty.
So a company that missed calling the downturn is now calling the upturn. That certainly gives me a warm fuzzy feeling.
@ C&C : I hear your cyclic mantra. However, remember that overshoot and ringing are also perennial biz phenomena.
Thread Video - Something to bolster the credibility of some of our esteemed economic prognosticators
The good part is at 4:00.
You're welcome.
why don't you to DKos and ask the author of the post.
You quoted it... I assumed you agreed with it, and could explain it to me.
The magic of positive thinking?
Nope just lifted those 3 excepts and missed the word illegal in first pass. But the rest of his diary asks some very good questions and I agree with overall tone and tenor.
"It is our country, it is our government, it is our MONEY. "
It will not be our country and government again until all the money is gone an we are stuck repossessing it. It is not OUR money any way. It is federal reserve notes. No "our" about it.
You are using their money. Use something else if you don't like them.
"With this, best in class Goldman has left the recession behind."
"Damit hat Platzhirsch Goldman jetzt schon die Rezession hinter sich gelassen".
Link (article from yesterday, July 14):
Quartalsgewinn: Goldman taktiert sich zum Milliardenerfolg - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Oh joy, joy the days will now be bright and sparkly! I love it when a recovery starts right on schedule!
ML/BAC: wonder what ML/BAC+Rosenberg would say? Oh forgot they moved him out
we will not monetize
OMG, i knew he was a douche, but ...
i had no idea
Why is Obama obsessed with hedge funds?
Ronald D. Orol WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Obama administration on Wednesday plans to send a proposal to Capitol Hill that would require hedge fund managers and private equity managers with more than $30 million in assets under management register with the Securities and Exchange Commission and open up their books to periodic examinations, according to remarks by Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael Barr on regulatory reform. The White House proposal, which is backed by the Treasury Department, will also require hedge fund managers to disclose to regulators and investors more information about the characteristics of their hedge funds. Fund managers will need to provide more details about asset size, borrowings and any off-balance sheet exposure.
Skittles, with an handle like that, please lead the class in song, and you get a special place on the float during the parade. lol
Why is Obama obsessed with hedge funds?
convenient scapegoat and talking point; works well with joe6p
rich-
that part (the 'handing' off to retail) is just further bolstered by the "points" that BAC is trying to make with this report. Reduce Cash.......yea people are going to reduce cash alright but it's going to be in a way they didn't expect. There is nothing in the release that identifies any fundamental reason to put that cash to work. They want it for the hand-off that needs to happen or we get another "tanks in the street's" mantra.
Sickening that people lap this shit up.
Ciao
MS
The NBER uses more than GDP to determine recession, right? A simple spate of hyper inflation isn't going to be interpreted as recovery, right?
With the recession over, the Fed can unwind their positions and stop propping up banks.
No need for PPIP.
No need to save CIT.
Let's see if the administration thinks the recession is over.
Nice video above of DK crying for his cell phone, invoking his daughter, who has only his cell phone number memorized. Never heard of call forwarding I guess. What a drip.
OT: I have a greenish shoot to report -- though it's probably a thistle;
A local contractor friend has noticed an uptick in bid requests; some if it just may be sharp customers trying to get as many bids as possible, but a couple of the people he talked to lately were interested in adding a room to their house rather than trading up to a new, larger one (Yeah, move-up is still possible -- if you bought 20 years ago and didn't withdraw equity up 'til now.) And what they tell him is, they see no reason to is sending $30-40K of their money to real estate agents as part of the buy/sell transactions, just to get more space. So why not just add a room?
That attitude would be a green shoot for the small-time contractor; but a major foxtail in the shoe for the real estate market, homebuilders, etc.
Just got in from working in the Urban Oasis.
sorry if this is a repost:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Obama administration on Wednesday plans to send a proposal to Capitol Hill that would require hedge fund managers and private equity managers with more than $30 million in assets under management to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission and open their books to examinations, according to remarks by Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael Barr on regulatory reform.
"These firms continue to present unknown risks, and that lack of transparency is no longer tenable," said Barr. "We need a system that lets regulators see risks as they emerge across the financial system."
Can someone explain why the market is up nearly 200 points?
Did Wall St. get a new HopiumHookah?
Thanks monetize.
"Give me back my f*cking cell phone...boo hoo boo hoo"
I'm curious - how many people here are permabears and how many people here are simply just bearish given the current economic reality?
Some interwebs market talking heads (fairly bearish folks) I follow have gotten less bearish recently - notably Kevin Depew at minyanville. He seems to think for the long term, anything under S&P 900 is a decent buy.
Have the coming wave of 2010 foreclosures been 'priced in' to the capital markets? Has the fallout from any capital market disruptions and future unemployment increases been priced into the equities market? What about the CRE stuff going down? State budget implosions?
Or are we seeing a mid-summer sucker's rally?
Gah, I need to find some happy pills.
Which long-time form of money has needed not one cent in support to prop up, from the government?
@nullpointer
haha, it can be really hard to wrap your head around just how big a douche this guy is.
John Edward should be looking over his shoulder.....cause here comes Dennis Kneale.
Maybe it's the end of the recession because it's the start of the Grand Depression...
The only thing that's been consistent is how wrong they've all been
And, further, "Der Rest der US-Wirtschaft steckt weiter in der Rezession, die Arbeitslosenquote steigt, Washington debattiert sogar über ein zweites Konjunkturprogramm."
They said Goldman had left the recession behind; they didn't say the recession itself was over. Anything but, in fact.
The government bought the "end" of the recession with borrowed money.
What happens when we have to pay it back?
Can someone explain why the market is up nearly 200 points?
Did Wall St. get a new HopiumHookah?
Reflation trade.
Wake me up at S&P 950 or late August, whichever comes first.
Is this an SNL skit?
how many people here are simply just bearish given the current economic reality?
I'm a bear until we get our demographics corrected, which should be uhhh, a decade, but with lots of mini-peaks and valleys
name the sectors that have led us out
Financials !
Consumer Discretionary !
Tech/Info thingy !
BTW, what's the latest on your July 15th California implosion prediction?
Best,
p.dave
burn-
i am actually extremely bullish on asia, india, brazil, energy, ag and water long term
but they are too expensive here
"I'm a bear until we get our demographics corrected,"
specifically what? boomers deep sixed?
msshine --
What happens when we have to pay it back?
We take out new loans to repay the old loans. Easy!
"I'm a bear until we get our demographics corrected,"
specifically what? boomers deep sixed?
Or maybe ethnic cleansing?
BURN
I am a bear until we actually start to make things again.
We improve our educational system.
We live within our means and save.
The financial system looks beyond today and compensation is changed.
We get rid of lobbying so the banks do not run the country.
I do believe things will change
Read the fourth turning.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Calpers, the biggest U.S. public pension fund, has sued the three largest credit rating agencies for giving perfect grades to securities that later suffered huge subprime mortgage losses.
The California Public Employees' Retirement System said in a lawsuit filed last week in California Superior Court in San Francisco that it might lose more than $1 billion from structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, that received top grades from Moody's Investors Service Inc, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Inc.
Let the LawSuits Begin!
I'm a bear until our cars run on something besides fossil fuels.
Hells yeah....lawsuits between CalPers and the ratings agencies. LOL. Where is my lawnchair?
msshine,
"I am a bear until we actually start to make things again."
You know - I think manufacturing is going to have a renaissance here. Several bigshot Silly-con valley types are fleeing the bay area for places like Ohio. What is in Ohio? Manufacturing...
Fleeing Silicon Valley – Part 2
asset appreciation requires more buyers than sellers. Boomer savings and foreign investors provided the run-up in S&P during the 1980s-1990s . During the 2000s, housing was the asset du jour.
Who are they going to sell these assets to?
What is in Ohio?
Probably their parents....they're moving back home...
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Obama administration on Wednesday plans to send a proposal to Capitol Hill that would require hedge fund managers and private equity managers with more than $30 million in assets under management to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission and open their books to examinations, according to remarks by Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael Barr on regulatory reform.
Can't say I have a problem with that...
"Why is Obama obsessed with hedge funds? "
it didn't start with Obama....Paulsen decided to take out the competition to his old firm with a few cute tricks last year...you might remember removing the arbitrage opps. that hedgies had by banning shorts. His goal is just being carried on by the same people who had a major part in assisting it's implementation, i.e Geithner, Summers, Graham (who incidentally, while not conducting black-hole experiments at UBS, has been really quiet lately) and several others.
The other side of it is so that this administration can pass along some of that key information to the goldman people so that they can have even more risk-free trading opps. and continue the perpetuating money machine, regardless of any fundamentals a sector has. Just like those poker sites that allow people to hack into the program and see everyone's cards before the bet is made. There is ZERO risk regardless of any real issues you might have with pesky things such as fundamental analysis.
This is just another ruse of more regulation....you really think the regulators (who will have all this new found "support" to actually do a job they were supposedly doing in the first place) are just going to keep all that information to themselves? It's basically setting up a direct conduit to see the books of all major market player's under the guise of protecting us little people.
Fucking shameful IMO...
Ciao
MS
HomeGnome,
Checked out your homepage, have to hide it from the wife, or she might start making demands above and beyond my usual fare. lol, just kidding, everything looks delicious. Philosophically, you have an epicurean tilt, I would wager...not a bad life at all. Thanks for sharing.
Burn, an important State in Presidential Elections.
For recession to be over like my April 10 call they will have to get in front of state tax shortfalls.
Apex of W recession was July 08.
Re intel:: Asia VP was on CNBS world and said that netbooks basically saved their Q and isn't expecting anything from windows 7 to jumpstart the orderbook.
Three professionals were disputing over which profession is the most venerable and honored: They were a surgeon, an architect and an economist.
The surgeon said that his was the oldest, because God the surgeon had extracted Eve from Adam's rib.
The architect pointed out that God the architect had built the whole world from chaos in six days.
But the economist said his profession was the oldest: He asked them: Who do you think was responsible for the chaos?
If you have bearish sentiment regarding market valuations that doesn't mean you have to be bearish in everything else everywhere. You still have to be in business.
dont worry McCully from Pimco says the solution is to follow Krugman and for the central bank to act irresponsibly. The level of depravity knows no end. His article is so totally unserious as to be laughable. Maybe he should explore his implicit assumption that the status quo ex anti is a fait accompli.
dont worry McCully from Pimco says the solution is to follow Krugman and for the central bank to act irresponsibly. The level of depravity knows no end. His article is so totally unserious as to be laughable. Maybe he should explore his implicit assumption that the status quo ex anti is a fait accompli.
Bloomberg Video: "The UAE is assured by Geithner of the strong dollar policy".
In other news, the UAE signs a nuclear deal with the US.
"I'm a bear until our cars run on something besides fossil fuels."
Draft horses?
"He seems to think for the long term, anything under S&P 900 is a decent buy."
What are his reasons? And more importantly his definition of long term.....
Ciao
MS
"follow Krugman and for the central bank to act irresponsibly"
The idea is to get you to beg for your Kool-Aid.
CNBC breaking news - economists sign petition to maintain its independence - straw man to try and lobby the "people" against the HR audit bill. Have we been transported to Venezuela/
Lots more mindless handwaving today, but the markets are getting happy nevertheless. Look at the futures stuff, especially Nasdaq-- and Intel.
Pavel-
If you want to see the ultimate bubble, try Saudi Arabia. That is where I'm sitting at the moment. Nothing will be right in the world until everyone sending all of their money here comes to an end. Gawd what a reckoning that will be.
Thanks Vonbek,
Mrs. Gnome does most of the cooking though.
We're heading to Umbria, Italy (right along the Tuscan border) in Sept for a food and wine vacation.
I can't wait!
"I get all my financial advice from bankrupt people. "
Doomy +2, funny and appropriate
We are being given guided tours of our new economic land by people that needed a map finding the cliff.
"If you have bearish sentiment regarding market valuations that doesn't mean you have to be bearish in everything else everywhere. You still have to be in business."
You obviously don't read or post on TickerForum. On that board you're liable to be lashed 40 times with rusty barbed wire if you imply that things are getting better. And into the stockade if you intimate that Asia is decoupling.
"What are his reasons? And more importantly his definition of long term....."
I'll try to find the article. His definition of "long term" is 20 years
Prison coaches charge up to $20K to prep white-collar perps - USATODAY.com
Great article in USAToday, of all places, on consultants to help the transition from Wall Street to prison.
LOL. I'm thinking....IPO this badboy!!!!!!
Prison coaches charge up to $20K to prep white-collar perps - USATODAY.com
Great article in USAToday, of all places, on consultants to help the transition from Wall Street to prison.
LOL. I'm thinking....IPO this badboy!!!!!!
I'm a bear until the internet is irrelevant because ultimately, rapidly diminishing resources and rapidly expanding population lead to poorer, more frugal people.
You can't stop the process without a lot of pain.
Poorer, more frugal people still lead rewarding, enriching, and fulfilling lives.
"We're heading to Umbria, Italy (right along the Tuscan border) in Sept for a food and wine vacation.
I can't wait!"
Lucky DOG!! We were in the Dordogne region of France a few years ago. My oh my the fois gras was to die for and the trucker road-side cafe's gave 3 star SF restaurants a real run for the money.
" Pavel-
If you want to see the ultimate bubble, try Saudi Arabia. That is where I'm sitting at the moment."
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists,
Last place in the world I'd want to go, so I guess I'll be watching it from a distance. Are you at least in comfortable surroundings?
"What is in Ohio?"
proximity to coal and sea-shipping lanes (access to St. lawrence seaway is not to far), cheap labor.
So that makes it a pretty decent place to set up a manufacturing enterprise...
Yalt, I cannot see the sentence that you quote in the article by Mr. Pitzke. I looked three times, maybe my eyes have alphabet overload. There is a little balancing by a Meredith Whitney quote, and a Matt Taibbi reference thrown in, although no one knows who that is over there.
In any case, there is too much looking up to "Platzhirsch" Goldman in the German media. And the word recession is treated all too casually...don't you agree that the gist is that all the worrisome stuff is over?
Pavel-
I'm sitting in a Pizzeria Uno's right now.
The people I do business here are probably some of the most enjoyable I've ever dealt with.
But wow is this place headed for a fall.
Ohio was a stereo song ruined by AM radio.
"But wow is this place headed for a fall. "
Why? (peak oil? or just the typical overleveraging etc.?)
What's in Ohio?
Cleveland, Ohio?
Possibly the best damn beer in the midwest!
Great Lakes Brewing Company, Cleveland, Ohio
and Slyman's Deli (Home of the 6in. corned beef sandwich)
Slymans Restaurant in the Media
I'm pleased and happy to repeat the news that we have, in fact, caught and killed a large predator that supposedly injured some bathers. But, as you see, it's a beautiful day, the beaches are open and people are having a wonderful time. Amity, as you know, means "friendship".
Spending four years in Germany, we traveled a lot, this was in the early-mid 80s, so the dollar went a long way. We ate at a lot of 'heavenly' restaurants. I really like German food, but northern Italy, and this spot in the Netherlands, I can still taste the food. Also a little Greek place actually in Germany, was to die for as well. When we came back to the states...Olive Garden and the occasional search for a good steak house or bbq...just wasn't the same. People wonder why military brats are so screwed up...
In regards to the market I am quite content to sit on the sidelines for sometime, perhaps forever. I simply don't want to play the game anymore. I rolled all my retirement money into treasuries 9-3-08 and I have been there ever since.
Got pigged earlier.
OT: how about "Goldman Sachsiburton"?
JD, were you asking for a "Taste of Armageddon"?? That's some Zagat-rated Trek there, my friend.
AC-
hedgefunds and private equity didn't cause the problems....exacerbate them? yes I agree with that. However no one told these large banks to take trillion $ balance sheets into 2007 leveraged at 40:1 (in some cases much higher). While I support regulations they have to be enforced (which was not done for the most part). But trying to establish more of them under the guise of protecting the market from those evil short selling hedgies is not the way to do it. This will only lead to the goldman's of the world getting information they should not have and then putting out reports such as yesterday's each and every qtr. Meanwhile the overall country falls deeper into the shit-pile while the few remaining banks profit on largely illegally obtained information through the conduit of yet more regualtions.
Ciao
MS
msshine,
"I am a bear until we actually start to make things again."
You know - I think manufacturing is going to have a renaissance here. Several bigshot Silly-con valley types are fleeing the bay area for places like Ohio. What is in Ohio? Manufacturing...
http://www.webguild.org/2009/07/fleeing-silicon-valley-part-2.php
I just received a pretty large RFQ to make parts for a company in Ohio just in the last 15 minutes - called the dude & turns out their current supplier is failing and will shut down maybe as soon as later today. I hear that all over - was on another call this morning with a buyer in Missouri - her supply chain is just being rocked too. We'll be meeting with her in a few weeks if not sooner.
Those in mfg who aren't overly leveraged and are 'low cost' [reasonable labor rates, not too much 'useless' management, appropriate capital structure] are going to rock coming out of this... those who don't fit that description are either dead or terminal.
Back to the salt mine - see you all tonight on the 'night shift'.
This restaurant was the best place that Mrs. Gnome and I ate at during our visit to Amsterdam a few years ago!
Restaurant Toscanini Amsterdam | The official website | Book your table online
We even went back the next night as the food was to die for!
Burn/Pavel-
Gawd where do I start. Fundamentally, the bottom line is almost zero work ethic for about 80% of the people I deal with, who are overpaid to sit in their offices and surf the internet all day. Rapidly growing population (average household size is 6.2) where the lower and middle classes don't have a lot of interest in studying hard sciences or math; many graduate college but few have marketable skills but are deeply versed in Islamic Education. The business elite is fantastic to deal with: US-educated mostly, hard-working, savvy but fair, generous but fair. But the work ethic is totally and completely abysmal for the other 80%. But the elite are terrified of the low to middle class, so nothing changes and everything is stratied.
I actually heard a comment on Dubai talk radio last year that one of the local s(10% of the population there rather than Saudi's 50% local population) said they thought no Emiratis should have to work, and foreigners should be brought in to do all of the work. Because Emiratis don't like to work, he said. Only 3% of Emiratis have a college educated, but the average income there is $68,000.
Seriously, what do you do with that?
Keep on filling up those gas tanks, folks.
"In regards to the market I am quite content to sit on the sidelines for sometime, perhaps forever. I simply don't want to play the game anymore. I rolled all my retirement money into treasuries 9-3-08 and I have been there ever since. "
My parents are ultra conservative and have been basically in CDs for the last 20 years in Canada and the UK. They were looking pretty stupid for 19 of those 20 years. Now they're looking pretty smart. They're in their early 70s so no way would they be able to recover from a 50% shellacking during their lifetime given that they need to start drawing down on that money now.
I'm clearly spelling like an Emirati this evening. Sorry about that.
"He seems to think for the long term, anything under S&P 900 is a decent buy."
Based on what metric? Declines in second derivative sucker supply numbers?
I simply don't want to play the game anymore. I rolled all my retirement money into treasuries
I'm not sure this counts as quitting the game. Treasuries could be in for a beating.
Sorry, Rapunzel, my quote was from the next day's (today's) article on Goldman, not the one you linked
No, I don't agree on the gist, especially after I read today's article. The claim seems to be that the worrisome stuff is over for Goldman, not for the US economy as a whole. I can't say I disagree--in fact, the worse things get, the better for the conduit, it seems to me.
It's true that they confined themselves to "recession", though. Die Zeit's been using the D-word for months--in general the German press has been much more negative (I started to write "honest") throughout.
Which is Worse,
Dad had similar comments coming back from Iraq. Married couples in Kuwait get a house for a wedding present.
"Gawd where do I start. "
Thanks - that is pretty interesting. I bet it will be vicious when poop hits the fan. Hope you have an escape plan before the beheadings start
Vonbek-
That said, they are amazingly nice people. I will be really, really sorry not to be dealing with them when I get back.
"I'm not sure this counts as quitting the game. Treasuries could be in for a beating. "
A lot of my money is sitting in ultra-short term Treasuries. Can't see a beating if you are sitting on very short duration notes. Of course I'm not making anything either which is fine by me right now.
BURN-
My take is that many Westerners think this place is screwed when we weaned overselves off of oil. The Arab view, a somewhat cynical society at times, I think is that when the time comes that we've weaned ourselves off of oil that will be least of our problems (kind of like Kunstler's worldview). I'm not really sure which one will win out.
"Based on what metric? Declines in second derivative sucker supply numbers? "
I can't remember exactly - but my point is not so much whether he is right or not. My point is here is an extreme bear, very bearish before the whole poopstorm broke, now he is getting optimistic (at least over a 20 year time span)
He did say since then that he thinks the S&P might hit 600 or so...
Which is worse,
Wasn't trying to suggest that they weren't. My father is an honorary member of a Bedouin family. If you know anything about the culture, you know how hard that is. Two edged sword for me. There are qualities I dearly wish we would rediscover in America, but there is baggage I never want to see here. A friend of my wife in college (both programmers for the university at the time) was from Saudi Arabia. She and her brother shared a huge house in a rich suburb of Houston. She worked, had a masters, and was working on a Phd. Brother didn't go to school, partied and was waiting to go back home. She was terrified after 9/11. Afraid she would have to go home and give up driving and other freedoms she enjoyed here.
On the previous thread re: chemical weapons, gases: they're still around. Remember the 2004 Sarin scare in Iraq? According to Wiki, Sarin is similar to malathion in its mechan ism of action, like carbamates in biologic activity. Both malathion & carbamates (sevin, for example), are common & widely used in the US. Sarin is classified as a WMD. Sarin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Is today's rally based entirely on Intel surpassing bogus expectations?
nothing fundamentally has changed! (maybe the velocity of badness is slowing down, but...) This is crap!
I made the mistake of watching the CNBC shill. What a maroon. No hard data at all, just pushing commish for the brokers. The only interesting thing was the pie chart showing how the uber-rich invest. Not much in stocks at all, as it turns out, mostly fixed income, cash, etc. And yet the shill was dissing this, saying they "ought" to be 50% in stocks! Hello?!
It just shows how the shills can twist the message, and if the herd is not paying attention, it will go along with the headline regardless of reality. It seems like the only options are to stay out of the game, or go momentum.
I live in the South Loop of Chicago, probably the most overbuilt area in northern IL. Condo high rise buildings are still being built. Three months ago I posted that a new 240 unit building had been open for six months and was still 80% empty. Then they auctioned off 25% of the units after promoting the hell out of the auction. Then they lowered the prices of the unsold units to the auction sales price.
Now less than 25 units are listed foresale. (don't know how many, if any, are in foreclosure).
"Some interwebs market talking heads (fairly bearish folks) I follow have gotten less bearish recently - notably Kevin Depew at minyanville. He seems to think for the long term, anything under S&P 900 is a decent buy."
Excellent, he has been conditioned (think Pavlov).
If it isn't clear to everyone that BB is targeting a 900 on the S&P, you haven't been paying attention.
That is what central banks do, they target price levels.
It can work for awhile, until the lose control.
"BURN (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:56 am Is today's rally based entirely on Intel surpassing bogus expectations?
nothing has changed! This is crap! "
Another short gets washed upon the rocky shore...
"Keep on filling up those gas tanks, folks."
Not much choice there, Which is worse - bankers or terrorists, and we seldom drive more than five miles at any one time. This is in DC, which has one of the better public transportation systems.
"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Obama administration on Wednesday plans to send a proposal to Capitol Hill that would require hedge fund managers and private equity managers with more than $30 million in assets under management to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission and open their books to examinations, according to remarks by Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael Barr on regulatory reform."
Hedge Funds = Competition for Goldman
Has everyone figured out yet who BHO really works for?
Vonbek-
Sorry for the sidetrack everyone but that is amazing about your father being an honorary member of the Bedouins. Wow.
Yes, not saying the KSA doesn't have its limitations, but it is interesting to watch the country evolve so quickly.
I was also in Yemen about a month ago. I don't think people quite realize is that is what Saudi would be without oil. Basically, borderline civil war, which is where Yemen is currently headed. I don't think people quite get how unstable the MENA region will become without oil; we're currently just scratching the surface.
Poorer, more frugal people still lead rewarding, enriching, and fulfilling lives.
doomy, that's certainly good news. I didn't know.
I suspect many people who are still alive from the GD have got to see that no one has made much of any sacrifice other than to not shop as much.
A media-interviewed woman who lost her job said that she no longer can afford to eat out all the time but, even though she has more time now, she only buys (expensive) pre-made, frozen meals because it makes her feel busy and cooking her own food would be inappropriate for her lifestyle image and too depressing.
" July 15, 2009
U.S. automaker General Motors (GM) announced July 15 that it plans to invest about $1 billion through 2012 at its plants in Brazil to develop a new family of vehicles for South America, Reuters reported. Jaime Ardila, GM’s chief executive for Brazil and South America’s Mercosur region, said most of the money will be invested in the Gravatai factory in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, where the company plans expansion in order to increase production capacity. Ardila said the investment would help boost GM’s capacity to more than 1 million units a year in Brazil."
Pavel-
Interesting play by GM. Obviously they will have to be flex-fuel. Hmmm......
Is today's rally based entirely on Intel surpassing bogus expectations? - burn
Not entirely, but the market likes that Intel did sort-of O.K. despite the doom, and despite the EU fine. Also, Intel shed an awful lot of people (expenses) in the last few years, Quietly, by attrition. And AMD is nowhere. I'm going to be paying attention to NASDAQ futures, myself.
Edit: Full disclosure: I have to pay attention to Intel, because my husband works there.
ghost-
see comments at 10:24 and 10:41...would like your opinion. I just don't see it happening in another way.
Ciao
MS
"she only buys (expensive) pre-made, frozen meals ""
That's not even healthy, including emotional health. Dead food.
I watched the CNBC video.
I shouldn't have.
They guy needs a good tailor.
The recession is over, now get a job you lazy bums.
Brazil and Latin America are in a commodity driven boom. GM will be too late, and it will bleed more money. Again.
We are gonna have to insist on a stake through the heart next time.
Sounds like lifestyle image needs a good reality bitchslap to me!
You wanna see some good food?
Check my homepage.
"Pavel-
Interesting play by GM. Obviously they will have to be flex-fuel. Hmmm......"
wwbt, yep, and the consequences ripple out...
"Married couples in Kuwait get a house for a wedding present."
We can have that here too if everyone would just do exactly what they are told and if all women would only be allowed to leave the house in giant hamster wheels... or burkas.
"Hope you have an escape plan before the beheadings start"
Leave the car at the airport with the keys in it.
Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes
ECONOMIC SCENE; In Recession, a Bleaker Path for Workers to Slog - NY Times
"Why is Obama obsessed with hedge funds? "
MS, you response why spot on.
I would add, it isn't Obama who is obsessed with hedge funds at all. That guy is nothing more than a puppet. Geithner and Summers are the ones pulling the strings on financial regulation.
BREAKING
FOMC sees long struggle to get jobless rate down
FOMC sees slow recovery
" Eric (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 1:03 pm
why don't you to DKos and ask the author of the post.
You quoted it... I assumed you agreed with it, and could explain it to me."
I'll explain it to you. Anything that folks on the DK don't like they deem illegal, e.g. "Bush's 'illegal' war". Note that CONgress et al signed off on it, whether you agree with it or not. Please don't invite those folks to come post over. I'd like to think we have them "contained" over at the DK.
"Meanwhile the overall country falls deeper into the shit-pile while the few remaining banks profit on largely illegally obtained information through the conduit of yet more regualtions."
Yes, that is the plan, isn't it?
What is GS other than a hedge fund? Look at how they make their money these days. But they get Fed backing, FDIC backing, etc.
In exchange, they carry out the monetary policies the Fed and Treasury can't do (or be caught doing).
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 5:28 pm
If you want to see the ultimate bubble, try Saudi Arabia. That is where I'm sitting at the moment. Nothing will be right in the world until everyone sending all of their money here comes to an end. Gawd what a reckoning that will be.
I have been wondering about the Saudi monoculture economy for years. UAE is also a bubble but at least they tried diversification.
The Mafia can flourish in the midst of a crumbling society.
So it is with modern day Wall Street. They are leeches and scam artists. They paid no price for their previous crimes. So they are free to happily move on to the next generation of scams.
For the rest of us, the recession may be over, but the depression is about to begin. What I see around me are cascading waves of layoffs, business failures, foreclosures and defaults. And mostly I see fear. Fear in the eyes of the people over 40 who either lost their job or are about to lose their job.
I'm guessing they are very picky. Camel skills?
"They paid no price for their previous crimes. So they are free to happily move on to the next generation of scams."
Welcome to the Trick System.
" BURN (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 1:57 pm
Is today's rally based entirely on Intel surpassing bogus expectations?
nothing fundamentally has changed! (maybe the velocity of badness is slowing down, but...) This is crap!"
Oh, it's even better than that:
Intel: Too Much, Too Far, Too Fast - The Market Ticker
Good to hear that I'm not just being consumed by the conspiratorial aspect of it. What's frightening to me is that this occurs in plain sight...it is not that hard to see...if one chooses to see it. I keep hearing anecdotal information about GS being levered to something like 1000:1 but I can't find anything that supports it (not that I'm looking for an announcement per se) but that would fit rather neatly into the fact that the market is not even allowed a 5% pullback..let alone a decent, real Fib. re-tracement. I also know and understand that TA is largely useless now and if it is allowed to hit some tech. levels it's only been to sucker in the next bunch of shorts for fuel to the upside.
I went to visit my family this last week and was a bit disappointed to see the Obama "hope" tome' AND a campaign flyer very prominently displayed in the office. I said nothing.....
Ciao
MS
rich,
I don't know. Let's just say my dad was gone more than he was around growing up. Lots of medals, and some neat photos with various 'known' people but tight lipped and no stories. My mom gets mad at him, guess there is some stuff declassified now, but he still doesn't talk about any of it. Always says he was part of a team, never a hero. He hates camels though. Spit on him. So I doubt it was 'camel skills'.
Dennis the menace. I can understand why he's optimistic... He's an idiot that should be unemployed but instead gets to be a weather man. If the markets were efficient Dennis would be dropping off my WSJ every morning. Why does he have to dance, shout and act like Conan? Nobody is actually taking him seriously regardless of what he does. Anyways... I've wasted enough time.
Yalt, you are probably gone, but what irked me about how Spiegel worded the situation, is that recession has nothing to do with one single company's earnings improving, no matter how large that company/earnings is. That R word should not be used like the author has. It suggests (suggeriert) a connection that is not there - sloppy and suggestive writing. Denkfaul.
Is this the same Merrill Lynch and BOA advisors that said they were financially sound last year? And is this the same Dennis Kneal that has now called the bottom and the recession over 34 times. Ok Dennis nice Comedy Show you just put on now leave the stage and get your bonus check from the guy with the big set of veneers, I think his name is Ken?