Just when I was about to get quick-pigged, I stopped, and here's what I wrote for the last thread. OT
There's an interesting front-page piece in today's NY Times about the real rate of unemployment, counting part-time. It echoes things some regulars here have been saying a long time.
"If lawmakers do decide more is needed, they would do well to remember that this is not an equal opportunity recession. By September, one out of every four Californians — and Oregonians and South Carolinians and Michiganders — who would like to have a full-time job might not have one.
Who ever thought we would be saying such a thing?"
I've noticed that lately the Times is resorting more to personal reflection, rather than straight news reporting, to try to wake its readers up to what's happening. I think this is because their online readership is growing as their print readership shrinks, and they ultimately would like to emulate and compete with CR. (I'm serious.)
In a regulatory filing on Wednesday, Capital One said the annualized net charge-off rate for U.S. credit cards -- debts the company believes it will never collect -- rose to 9.73 percent in June from 9.41 percent in May.
The capacity utilization number is an excellent barometer for the economy. It's the lowest reading in my lifetime. I don't see how the economy can be improving when factories are being used less and less.
So today's excuse is that someone or group in Asia bought a few hundred PC's and made INTC's #'s appear less smelly then forecast? What happened to the actual results with YOY comparisons?
What I like best about blog news is the constant vetting that takes place. Not just of the stated facts or headlines, but of the context and presentation of the reported facts.
Bonds taking a savage beating. This after a weak reading on mortgage apps for purchases and chain store sales going negative again YoY. In the markets we're still seeing the series of buying and selling panics that characterize bubble economies:
"Oh my God, deflation!"
"Oh my God, hyperinflation!"
"Oh my God, deflation!"
"Oh my God, hyperinflation!"
"Oh my God, deflation!"
...
There is nothing wrong with Intel as a continuing operation. Valuations are a different matter entirely. With Intel, the divy looks ok, but long run tech earnings should trade at a discount, not a premium imo.
Numbers still indicate deflation, reduced demand, but inventory liquidation looks like a balance-sheet improvment as one set of liabilities shrinks, however the other liability, no-demand has yet to make it to balance sheets. Even GS admits leaner times, smaller spreads ahead.
If anyone has a traditional 401K-esque still, today is a great day to sell, sell, sell.
CPI goes up, half a million a month lose their jobs, we've transitioned to a socialist dictatorship in mere months, whole industries are now run by faceless inexperienced bureaucrats and political lackeys, more industry is on tap for complete governmental control, taxes are going up, wages going down, and your every step in life (from how you set your thermostat to the kinds of light bulbs you can buy to how much electricity you can use) is going to be monitored and controlled by some new governmental regulation... and one company posts results verging on doublespeak (we had a loss but discounting the loss it looks good) and the WHOLE market edges upwards?
If this isn't mass insanity then I have no further description and am forced to conclude that America is getting exactly what it asked for. Good luck and stop your whimpering... this is what you let happen. So obviously, you must have wanted to live in a third world socialist tyranny. Fun huh?
yea....any actual results that don't correspond with "up" apparently are not useful.
So what happens next year when the results (which will still suck) are compared to this year?
lawyerliz-
They already do that.....I think they just split the prop desk into two groups and ladder up with each other. Of course you need to hand it off to someone.....I think JPM's results will show they are the 'someone' for now.
There is nothing wrong with Intel as a continuing operation. Valuations are a different matter entirely. With Intel, the divy looks ok, but long run tech earnings should trade at a discount, not a premium imo.
I'd be willing to bet that INTC's next quarter is dismal. There are many ways to push sales ahead a quarter and costs back.
They needed to hit certain targets this quarter for revenue and gross margin, and they made sure of it.
The U.S. PC market can't be strong with so much vacant office space and govt budget freezes. The office and govt. market is two-thirds of PC growth, with education being another. Whenever an office goes vacant, there's often a not-so-old and very workable spare PC left over for future use.
Just 20 years ago, this is what our short-term information possibilities were:
TV: a few talking heads talking to millions, laced with advertising
Radio: a few talking heads talking to millions, laced with advertising
Newspapers: a few writing heads for a readership of millions, laced with advertising
Magazines: a few writing heads for a readership of millions, laced with advertising
INTC is a monopoly for the most part. The actual results are horrible so if a business that enjoys virtually no competition can't grow for the sake of growing (yes... simplistic I know) then what have we got left? I've seen companies get punished for growing (which was part of it's forecast and plan-NFLX to name but one example) but this disconnect in equity performance vs. actual hard results , in so many cases now, lack of results is just getting ridiculous.
There are two trends killing and going to continue to kill Intel.
First, lack of Government hardware refresh in this cycle. Nobody is upgrading to Windows 7, period. Second, VMWARE consolidation has allowed us to shrink hardware footprints and only require buying 2-10 systems instead of 100-1000 systems. Because those 6-core processors allow us greater virtual machine densities, the consolidation ratio is that much greater. If it was 1:10 two years ago, 1:20 last year, it's 1:50 this year.
Few agencies are undergoing hardware refresh at this stage of the game having 1) do it with Wn2K8 already, or 2) simply going with consolidated model.
Green Sh1t...I mean SHOOTS! This is a positive indicator that domestic supply of these items will start becoming a shortage....Inflationary or just depression data? I dont know...
I think this is because their online readership is growing as their print readership shrinks, and they ultimately would like to emulate and compete with CR. (I'm serious.)
Rich,
Then they will need to find someone with more on the ball then Gretchen. Or at least someone who can figure out the right people to gather information from.
"Oh my God, deflation!"
"Oh my God, hyperinflation!"
"Oh my God, deflation!"
"Oh my God, hyperinflation!"
"Oh my God, deflation!"
...
BTW it's critical to understand that the long-term becomes highly unpredictable in this kind of environment and it's hard to have specific expectations about business decisions.
This is why such an environment isn't really supportive of recovery - stability and expectation of future stability is key to modern business because of the reliance on credit (and thus future cash flows).
That why it might really be better to reach a "stable bottom" even if that meant a much deeper GDP contraction in the short term.
"whole industries are now run by faceless inexperienced bureaucrats and political lackeys,"
.....this is how the FedGov has operated since the late 1800s - reward the highest posts to the highest contributors regardless of skill sets or intelligence. Career government employees have learned to despise the Presidential, Congressional, and Judicial appointees.
Now that practice is being applied to "private enterprise"............it's a short walk on a shorter plank from here.
well based on the wonderful news out there....I'm dumping all my remaining comm longs into this non-sense....it's just been outed, in public. I will keep a small core position in DBA and SLV however the bulk of them are gone into this fluffy BS.
They upped guidance. That said, the valulations look a bit high to me. I really don't know why so many continually discount future tech earnings the way they do. Almost all long run tech earning converge at zero. Unlike the finance arena, tech is a competitive and unprotected market. Tech should trade at a discount to the broader markets, not a premium imo.
Just think how much of a market goose we can expect if Capacity Utilization delines to 60%, or even lower. Better still - Idle all plants, for a real WallSt treat.!
at least we didn't hear the "CAP EX will save us" mantra. I'm sure we will very soon though.....old and tired excuses seem to pop up with regularity now. BTW the action in the market tells me that the Indexes can't even allow a small pullback (for overall health reasons) because it's still too damn levered. A 5% pullback would kill it...that's just friggin' sad.
GS is a metastasized corporate and bank-holding entity that is multi-national. This not a false choice fallacy between glorious democratic republicanism or pinko-commy socialism disguised as democracy. It is corporatist multi-aligned intra-continentally hedged organizations that are for profit, there’s not yours. GS is the ugliest form of the purest most cynical most pragmatic most sinister type of capitalism. They are on all sides of all positions and stand to gain whether we, the collective we, fail or not.
That's my point. People can clean their guns and stockpile the ammo in the event that those socialist democrats up in dc are going to align with Nato and the UN to seize our guns, but the system itself has already been undermined by profound forces that can materially result in one quarter of the working population simply not having a job, the other quarter being under-employed, the other quarter being slowly starved of purchasing power.
That's my point. How is this administration actually regulating, socializing, command-economizing GS, or AIG (still), or any other TBTF financial institution? Fair question, with all do respect. And IMHO democracy is what has systemically failed in this country which is in decline. The material question to me is what shape, type, color that decline will take. So in answer, I have my own hedges, which are in many cases absent the market, including a lack of focus or interest on which party is stealing my children's future.
Retailers since xmas have blown out inventory below cost in an attempt to clear the decks, but new inventory is coming in slower and higher-priced than previously bought goods, f.o.b. China.
Rich: The U.S. PC market can't be strong with so much vacant office space and govt budget freezes. The office and govt. market is two-thirds of PC growth, with education being another. Whenever an office goes vacant, there's often a not-so-old and very workable spare PC left over for future use.
Maybe this is a good thing?
I have enough stuff, and those people who move numbers around all day can find something productive to do.
Maybe plant a garden?
Yesterday I bought a copy of Keynes' "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money".... Will reading this book corrupt me? How about just staring at the cover?
To give you an idea of how little things change in the scheme of things...
King George III relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Germans (mostly Hessians) to do his dirty work, and our King George II relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Blackwaters to do his dirty work.
To give you an idea of how little things change in the scheme of things...
King George III relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Germans (mostly Hessians) to do his dirty work, and our King George II relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Blackwaters to do his dirty work.
Now King Obama is relying on an army of 30,000 Goldman Saxons to do his work.
King George III relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Germans (mostly Hessians) to do his dirty work, and our King George II relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Blackwaters to do his dirty work.
And we know what happened when Rome started using mercenary armies.
It took 1600 hundred years to get a city the size of Rome again.
" ac (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:00 am
That why it might really be better to reach a "stable bottom" even if that meant a much deeper GDP contraction in the short term."
Gasp! Heretic! Stone him!!!!
/snark off
for the moment anyway
Russia’s lower house of parliament approved a $7.5 billion crisis fund July 15 to help Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, all members of the Eurasian Economic Community, confront the global economic crisis, The Associated Press reported. Details of whether the aid will be in the form of loans or grants and what terms might be attached are not clear."
Worked for GMAC........"would you like a pony little girl?"
which-
well there is a way however at that point in time we still had some capacity that remained.....we hadn't finished off-shoring it so methinks it would be an ineffective comparison. We've changed so much in the ensuing years that any of it's data (and it's metrics used to gather) are most likely not even close to how it's "measured" now.
Stride Rite sells millions of children's shoes in the U.S., and not one pair is made here any more.
These cuts are among execs, marketing, sales, etc.
I said some time ago that you would know it's a really deep recession when you look at the shoes on middle-class children's feet and they are too small.
A friend who is an independent sales rep for machine tools says his business is down 80%, and the only customers buying are defense-related and firearms manufacturers. Also said he was in a Cabella's recently and there was a long line of people waiting to buy $800+ handguns. It's rather scary that firearms demand is so strong the makers are expanding capacity.
Well at this point, I am trying to stop taking everything personal, and just enjoy the show...I mean at some level, this pump and manipulation is breathtaking to watch...that old proverb about living in interesting times....my high school economics teacher cursed my senior class with this line...said we were the most boring class to come through and didn't have the balls to do anything, let alone make it in the world...the only thing that could help us out, were 'interesting times'...that was a great year...class valedictorian was a Chinese exchange student...her speech in very good broken english, extolled the virtues of logic and hard work and the chinese work ethic in general. Also informed us that we were the most lazy people she had met, and the 'rewards' of capitalism were the seeds of our own destruction. Good times, good times...I need to buy a fiddle and learn a couple of jigs.
This is probably heresy on an economics blog, but if all the small players, i.e. everyone except Goldman Sachs would get out of the market, it would, in the intermediate to long term, help take away their license to print money. If you're playing the game (especially at this disadvantage), you're enabling them.
I'm serious about the Keynes... what parts should I pay especial attention to, as I am reading it to help understand better the foundations of monetarist thinking and real Keynes versus "Keynesianism", not to pass a test. Just thought I needed a counterpart to "The Road to Serfdom" for perspective.
In the Soviet Union, the director of the shoe factory received an order to produce one million shoes, but only had enough leather to make 500,000. So, he ordered one million shoes to be made in the smallest women's size. Problem solved.
In the United States we simply don't make shoes anymore.
"The capacity utilization number is an excellent barometer for the economy. It's the lowest reading in my lifetime. I don't see how the economy can be improving when factories are being used less and less."------------------------------------------------------------------
Kidhorn, software and services are replacing bricks and mortar. On line newspaper readership, for instance, is increasing while printed editions sales are declining. No need for more printing presses but increased need for sales software, instead.
No need for trading floors either. Trading can be done from home or the office in Tokyo, London, or Lake Charles, Louisiana. Just ask GS.
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 2:38 pm
In the United States we simply don't make shoes anymore.
If we ever have a draft for war again, we'll have to ask permission of China first to get the boots that the troops will need.
Rich,
If you want to find a company cooking the books, look past Intel. They might massage a bit at worst.
Leftover computers from bankruptcies are sold through liquidators to overseas entities or charities who weren't going to buy a computer anyway. These computers are not suitable replacements for new computers.
Someone would need to know the current practical applications of SOP 97-2 and EITF 00-21 at a minimum to understand the revenue model for devices with embedded software. To understand what's going on at Intel, you'd also have to have documentation on VSOE for them.
The real reason behind Bush's going to Mars fantasy?
The Sunday before he announced his grandiose plans to go to the red planet on Monday, Paul O'Neil spoke his mind on 60 Minutes, describing just how reckless W's administration was.
They couldn't silence an honest man with facts, so they did it by inventing a bigger story for the 24 hour news cycle...
" ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:35 am
I'm serious about the Keynes... what parts should I pay especial attention to, as I am reading it to help understand better the foundations of monetarist thinking and real Keynes versus "Keynesianism", not to pass a test. Just thought I needed a counterpart to "The Road to Serfdom" for perspective."
If you're already leaning towards that sort of thinking, it'll probably re-enforce your inclinations. Conversely, if you think he's full of crap, you'll become certain.
I personally view Keynes primary teaching on transfer payments and government stimulus as a failed theory, though all of my non-military economics professors were Keynesians. Granted, that view was formed when it looked as thought the monetarist had all of the answers, which we know now not to be true. Oh well.....
Anybody remember the Bush/mars rover deal? Some high level meeting between Bush, NASA, and experts from various places...had the whole space community thinking that there would be an announcement about finding life on Mars...probably just at the microscopic level in the soil...there was a real frenzy for a while, and then nothing. Wonder what the briefing was about?
I've heard (somewhere) that we also have to buy ammunition from offshore sources. We can't even fight a war with our own products. So much for the Arsenal of Democracy.
shill (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:15 am replyIgnore userPoint well taken BH...and Ill add with a little snicker...come and try to confiscate..................
But bring friends...
CHILD
You men from the bank?
PETE
You Wash's boy?
CHILD
Yassir! And Daddy tolt me I'm to
shoot whosoever from the bank!
He pokes his rifle at the three men, who raise their hands.
DELMAR
Well, we ain't from no bank, young
feller.
CHILD
Yassir! I'm also suppose to shoot
folks servin' papers!
lama - good to see you comment !
Had to google VSOE ... does Intel get much revenue from software? Sure there's a lot embedded, but it's mostly in the chips, and the deliveries seem quite discrete ....
Jim,
The ammo thing is true. When Iraq started to heat up, Army found out that the remaining ammo factories could not produce enough. That is in part why there has been a shortage at times throughout the US. Army is buying it all up.
" JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:45 am
I've heard (somewhere) that we also have to buy ammunition from offshore sources. We can't even fight a war with our own products. So much for the Arsenal of Democracy."
I seriously doubt it. Aren't arms one of our biggest exports? I do recall that a fairly large munitions plant down in AL disappeared from the face of the Earth a few years ago, but I doubt that its loss left us unable to supply bullets. Besides, it may be more economical to buy .223s from China. At a billion per day, or whatever it was, I'm all for saving some dough by outsourcing.
Some high level meeting between Bush, NASA, and experts from various places
Don't remember the meeting, but Bush was probably informed, very politely, that using a moonbase to go to Mars made no sense whatsoever
I personally view Keynes primary teaching on transfer payments and government stimulus as a failed theory, though all of my non-military economics professors were Keynesians.
My opinion is that Keynes' government stimulus idea works on paper, but doesn't fully appreciate the political reality of such a policy. Politicians are supposed to pay down the debt as soon as the economy improves. Instead, the electorate wants perpetual stimuli and puts enormous pressure on the government to keep the gravy train rolling after recovery. This leads to unsustainable deficits, which, it turns out, actually do matter.
So, good idea on paper, but doesn't work in practice.
There's no money to be made making bullets, but a veritable shitlode can be made making something that costs millions of dollars, but for some reason is vulnerable against a $15 i.e.d.
Subflation: Substandard growth. Sub Rosa reported statistics. Subconcious subliterate populace. Subsequently; subsistence wages and subsidized by government.
The middle class is the target. We will go back to the Rich/Merchantile/Working Poor model like it or not. We can't do it with old fashioned inflation; people are too smart and mobile with their money. We can't do it with just taxes either, there's still barely enough democracy left to thwart the attempt. We will devalue and inflate the currency while stripping value from assets.
Oh, I almost forgot. Subflation includes the Substitution of lesser goods in the BLS inflation index. The converse is known as hedonic adjustments.
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 9:42 am
If you're already leaning towards that sort of thinking, it'll probably re-enforce your inclinations. Conversely, if you think he's full of crap, you'll become certain.
I personally view Keynes primary teaching on transfer payments and government stimulus as a failed theory, though all of my non-military economics professors were Keynesians. Granted, that view was formed when it looked as thought the monetarist had all of the answers, which we know now not to be true. Oh well...
I simply see Hayek fitting in with a lot of my pre-existing prejudices about economics and was not formally educated in the subject and hoped exposure to what is essentially his polar opposite might force some objectivity on my attempts to understand the limitations of both ways of thinking. But more importantly with Keynes, I want to have a better idea what he actually thought versus what followers and later establishment dupes made him out to be saying.
"The United States' top fighter jet, the Lockheed Martin F-22, has recently required more than 30 hours of maintenance for every hour in the skies, pushing its hourly cost of flying to more than $44,000, a far higher figure than for the warplane it replaces, confidential Pentagon test results show.
"It is a disgrace that you can fly a plane [an average of] only 1.7 hours before it gets a critical failure" that jeopardizes success of the aircraft's mission, said a Defense Department critic of the plane who is not authorized to speak on the record. Other skeptics inside the Pentagon note that the planes, designed 30 years ago to combat a Cold War adversary, have cost an average of $350 million apiece and say they are not a priority in the age of small wars and terrorist threats.
Sprey said engineers who worked on it told him that because of Lockheed's use of hundreds of subcontractors, quality control was so poor that workers had to create a "shim line" at the Georgia plant where they retooled badly designed or poorly manufactured components. "Each plane wound up with all these hand-fitted parts that caused huge fits in maintenance," he said. "They were not interchangeable."
Where's Henry Ford when you need him?
There has been some gradual progress. At the plane's first operational flight test in September 2004, it fully met two of 22 key requirements and had a total of 351 deficiencies; in 2006, it fully met five; in 2008, when squadrons were deployed at six U.S. bases, it fully met seven.
Obama/Gates have threatened a veto if more funds are appropriated for the F-22. Think they'll prevail?
I bowled in an arms merchant league for a few years...
I'd guess the average was around 135, of the 50 participants.
You'd think with such high i.q.'s, that 48 of the 50 people wouldn't be righty-tighty-hypocrites (my wife and I the lone exceptions) but the military industrial complex is full of people like that.
They would just turn inwards and use it's institutional client base as it's own counter. I suspect they are already doing it in a small way. One of the reasons it's internal book is outperforming it's managed accounts. It's impossible to perform the way they have and not be doing something below board (on avg. $178m a day). The problem is simple in as much as there is/are enough people willing to take a gamble riding the GS train that it keeps the smaller fish in line and willing to deal with it rather then expose it. They are the market...take that away from them and the people who herd into trading are at a loss as to where yield is going to come from.
with regards to the Keynes question...all you really need to know is the following quote straight from Larry Summers: "with the great insight of Keynes......"
You can then use the rest of the information available to get a great idea of what they are trying to do.
Ya and the Brady Bunch are just a bunch of pathetic limp wristed pony tailed champagne drinking big banker finance backed socialist loving neo conned bamboozled shiny shoe liberal corporate gated community Nancy Nazis...
But they have High IQ's.......think hamster/pelosi.
The Bush/Nasa meeting was specifically about some data the Rover reported. Life or water were the two big guesses....I will dig around and try to find the story.
<The Bush/Nasa meeting was specifically about some data the Rover reported. Life or water were the two big guesses....I will dig around and try to find the story.
Maybe Bush thought that the Mars Rover had located Iraq's WMDs?
" Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:57 am
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 7:54 am
Obama/Gates have threatened a veto if more funds are appropriated for the F-22. Think they'll prevail?
One word answer: Osprey."
I worked a subcontractor making accelerometers for that project over 20 years ago. Boy was I glad I left after only 9 mos. the CEO of the company was asking me to sign off on testing that hadn't been done (later found out he just signed my name anyway), etc., and the whole thing seemed like a real fiasco. A couple of years later, folks started dying in test flights, but I don't think our components were ever found to be at fault. In any event, they never came after me, thank goodness.
The real reason behind Bush's going to Mars fantasy?
And the answer is.......??
Easy one. Whose district did Johnson Space Center reside in? That same individual was THE KEY individual in ramming (or should I say hammering?) through all of W's initiatives. When that person left office the Mars nonsense was no longer needed.
Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 9:49 am
Feudal,
Watch for assuming fixed prices and assuming that the "right" demand is knowable and assuming that equilibrium is an end state.
So noted. I would expect this and pretty much take for granted the economy is a non-equilibrium system and discount the presumption of rational economic utility theory that the future demand is knowable. So I guess I already enter into this with a fairly strong bias.
"
we will not monetize (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:59 am
I can't imagine anything striking more fear in the heart of a soldier than knowing that my ammo was Made in China.
Holy Cow..."
BTW, I don't have any info that the ammo is made in China. However, it's a standard NATO round IIRC, so it's probably sourced somewhere overseas, but maybe not. I just pulled China ot of my @$$. Now for some Prep-H
"I can't imagine anything striking more fear in the heart of a soldier than knowing that my ammo was Made in China.....Holy Cow"
......Yep......but then I'm a BIG advocate of the advantages of the "semi-automatic shotgun-out-to-the-front-gate" mentality. I don't need much Korean, Indian, or Chinese ammo.
I know the 'plan' down here in Texas is to start selling them when TSHTF. People have stockpiled unbelievable amounts of firearms as an 'investment' strategy. I am always behind the curve.
"== What's in the Capsule ==
One of the more trenchant comments about the 1960's space program came from
astronaut John Glenn: "As I hurtled through space, one thought kept
crossing my mind: Every part of this capsule was supplied by the lowest
bidder." "
[2005 article on ammo from overseas] US forces have fired so many bullets in Iraq and Afghanistan - an estimated 250,000 for every insurgent killed - that American ammunition-makers cannot keep up with demand. As a result the US is having to import supplies from Israel. The GAO report notes that the three government-owned, contractor-operated plants that produce small- and medium-calibre ammunition were built in 1941.
John Pike, director of the Washington military research group GlobalSecurity.org, said that, based on the GAO's figures, US forces had expended around six billion bullets between 2002 and 2005. "How many evil-doers have we sent to their maker using bullets rather than bombs? I don't know," he said. The other was Israel Military Industries, an Israeli ammunition manufacturer linked to the Israeli government, which produces the bulk of weapons and ordnance for the Israeli Defence Force.
The Pentagon reportedly bought 313 million rounds of 5.56mm, 7.62mm and 50-calibre ammunition last year and paid $10m (about £5.5m) more than it would have cost for it to produce the ammunition at its own facilities
The gun thing is interesting, I know a lot of people make fun of it, but it is both down right scary and a little bit uplifting as well. I will give a personal example. Wife's family bugged us for years to go visit an older relative who lives near us. Wife doesn't do much with her family anymore, but finally gave in. Buzz was this gentleman was really nice and would take you out for dinner. Well, we met him and his wife at a Golden Corral, had a very awkward dinner. He was a Korean war vet, so when he found out that I was an Army brat, he warmed up and started telling me war stories. Anyway, I don't know if I impressed him or what, he invited me back to their house...and while my wife and his wife looked at photos...he took me to the garage, and then underneath the garage...had a special room.....it was like a weapons depot. Actually had a.50 cal machine gun with crates of ammo. M-16s, M-60s, grenade launchers...you name it, he had, including some nice sniper gear. Now this guy is in his 70s...I asked him what it was all for...just said he was ready. Now just how many of these 'guys' are out there is my question?
Quite a few. Father-in-laws' estate included a visit from the ATF. They said this kind of thing was quite common, for gentleman of a certain age, to have acquired not-quite-legal firearms, or have otherwise been modified in a not-quite-legal fashion (think quieted).
Now just how many of these 'guys' are out there is my question?
I don't think you really want to know. More than just a fringe. But most probably don't have the arsenal you described. Some of that stuff is way way illegal.
I had an uncle who had several automatic assault rifles, (M-16, AK-47, Mach 10, 9mm uzi, etc.) Some of which he made silencers for. The mach 10 had been converted to handle slugs in 40 round clips.
Father-in-law only spoke once about putting somebody into his sites and watching him crumple. Once. It was not fun, or good, or glorious. It haunted him.
squidward,
I really shouldn't be here. Much too busy...but an addict.
My point was that some of this stuff gets complex and is not transaction based. There's a slowly moving distinction between product and software portions of sales. Typically, the marketing drives the Rev Rec (i.e.: If the ads are selling a toy, book the sale when you ship, if the toy is a new video game, that's where it gets foggy).
Speaking of used computers, I've got 4 pallets full outside my office du jour. What are my bids?
"Isn't there often a section in the back of some books trying to sell other books by the author or publisher?"
Imagine if there was only 10 seconds of commercials per hour of TV or Radio, always @ the 59:50 mark of each hour, or just one page of advertising on the back page of the newspaper or magazines?
Then the pithy argument that books contain advertising might have merit.
Father-in-law only spoke once about putting somebody into his sites and watching him crumple. Once. It was not fun, or good, or glorious. It haunted him.
I too am haunted every night knowing that if my home is broken into and my family is attacked I have nothing to protect them with.....I too crumple at the thought.
But will agree one does not need 100 guns and 10,000 rounds of ammo for home protection.
3 guns and a few thousand rounds are more than ample..
They do that in Europe as well. Most students don't work, as there is no work. Kids are also tracked into classes that prepare them for jobs that are / will be needed.
I expect Pell Grants to be used by more and more people as that will be in only income they can get once unemployment runs out.
A friend of mine, in his late 60s got his masters and is working on his phd due to the lack of possible employment in his field. Lots of student loans, grants etc. He will graduate once SS kicks in. Strange times indeed.
Husband ,an Air Force vet, has been buying ammo and guns for the past forty years. I just thought it was a guy thing because he is a geek, and was an MP while in service.
I think we are in trouble. Notice two signifiant declines, one signifiying the end of Vietnam and associate defense-spending for that war, two the aerospace contraction of early 80s--note we are already way below those troughs. Imagine a wind-down of our two wars and multiplier on industrial contraction. We almost have to have war to keep levels from falling over another precipice.
That sounds like backwards reverse logic. Think of the cost to run the war per soldier, and then the cost to fed the many, many starving people this country is about to have per person. It seems ending the wars and feeding the needy will keep the country about as stable as it feasibly can be.
Regarding America, I found this report troubling released yesterday: Report: Industry May be Unable to Meet Military's Needs The Aerospace Industries Association issued a report Monday warning that because of consolidation and other fundamental changes in the defense industry, manufacturers may not be able to provide the technologies required to carry out the strategies the Defense Department considers necessary to meet future threats.
"Without considering industrial effects when choosing strategies, DOD might choose strategies that industry is no longer facilitized to support, or those strategic decisions could break industrial capabilities that may be required in the future," Fred Downey, AIA's vice president for national security policy, said at a news conference.
That could reduce strategic options "or leave the U.S. vulnerable to threats," Downey said.
....
The money part!
The study found that three key sectors were "significantly affected" by the strategic choices: tactical aviation, consisting of fighters and attack aircraft; large military aircraft, such as refueling tankers and cargo planes, and ballistic missile defense.
The two aircraft sectors could be weakened by lack of production under one situation and unable to respond to changing needs. A reduced missile defense-design workforce might be unable to respond to a demand for different systems required by a changed strategy.
Minimally affected by the different strategies were unmanned aerial systems; command, control, communications, computers and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems; and strategic nuclear capabilities. Those three were required for all three scenarios.
Four sectors were assessed as "minimally affected" by the strategic choices because they already were in such a degraded condition that they would have difficulty responding to any of the scenarios.
Those were rotary-wing aviation and long-range strike, or bombers, because their research and development capabilities have eroded for lack of new programs; space power, where the industrial base is too weak to respond quickly to new demands, and science and technology, a sector that is depleted due to lack of funding and an aging work force.
bh - interesting observation. Would you infer a big chunk of the industrial capacity use is for defense?
Maybe we've been "stimulating" that segment for decades...
.
We also don't seem to be "winding down" in afghanistan...
I don't know. I am neither for or against guns. They are a tool. If a person breaks in my house, I know how to use a knife, and I have enough physical strength to crush someone's windpipe...but that is if they don't get a shot off and incapacitate me...multiple people with automatic weapons (read gangs, which has happened around here), not much of a chance...what do you prepare for? Where do you draw the line? Having an arsenal in the basement doesn't do any good if you can't get to them in time either. That is my problem. Keeping a gun in a place to use for emergencies is a big no, no for me because of my young children. Gun safe doesn't work in a situation where someone kicks your door in at 3am...choices, choices.
Ironic that those very same "conditions" have existed for well over 10 years and they decide to put out a report after the administration that exacerbated those very same problems is no longer accountable for them.
DOD sees that everyone is getting a free ride and they want some too.
Now who heard about this report? Contrast with last week where everyone and their mother was talking about that report on bottled vs. tap water and the general conclusion was that "tap water might be safer than bottled water". Yeah, and if any bottled water is contaminated with e-coli; that company is dead, done, gone and buried. So I'm pretty sure they test and re-test and screen and scan. Yet this was reported across the news like this "bottled water might not be safer than tap water".
Stalin, Hitler, Hirohito, and Kim Jong Il must marvel at the effectivness of our American propaganda machine...
.....instead of worrying about your neighbor and his front bedroom window with the M-60 barrel showing, lets worry about our beef, chicken, and pork instead. The SuperBug, MRSA is showing up in it and it WILL kill you.
"MRSA is so common in the United States that it accounts for more than half of all soft-tissue and skin infections in ERs. Organic meat might be less likely to have antibiotic-resistant or disease-causing organisms.......Stock up on nonmeat protein sources such as beans, lentils, and tofu"
lets worry about our beef, chicken, and pork instead. The SuperBug, MRSA is showing up in it and it WILL kill you.
Or automobiles. Or heart disease. Or the many prosiac factors that end most lives...
JP, now I hadn't heard about the gas weapons. That is a new concept, didn't realize they had a commercial version available for the public. That is interesting...
Thanks.
just looked at the market..maybe intel could report every couple weeks instead....will be at 16000 in months...
1.5 billion yr over yr revenue loss bewilders me...
.......future wars or "engagements" will be undertaken mostly by support staff miles away, unmanned armed Predator aircraft, and high-school aged kids in darkened rooms concentrating on "game consoles" 8000 miles from the ongoing missile detonations.
My father in-law went in for a routine knee surgery in 2001 and contracted MRSA from the initial operation. 8 year's (and over 21 operations later) he has two fake knee's, a fake hip, a blown out shoulder (walking with a cane for that period of time) rides around on a scooter and can't even begin to have the life he had prior to that initial operation to just "clean out a bit of scar tissue"....
This was at Sequoia Hospital in Redwood City. After his 7th or 8th operation with the same doctor I gave up trying to convince him to change the Dr. and hospital. His rationale was that his Dr. was the one the SF 49er's used so.......... But he now has a nice shiny little "trophy" for "courage and commitment to his health"...It's shaped like an academy award and sits in his foyer. Each time I visit and see I don't know whether to laugh or cry to myself.
Our civilization wandered too far from reality, kicked out its own foundations, and now wanders the aether, insane. Its worse than what is typically described here as "stupidity", worse even than "corruption"; it is insanity.
Sorry, I was snarking. I'll try harder to make it obvious next time.
But the ratio of break-ins to armed homes to successfully defensed homes should be an indication that mere firepower is insufficient. And as has been said for over 2000 years: War is the art of misdirection.
they don't argue
the insurgencies in Iraq & Afghanistan grew after the initial "victories"..
maybe the unmanned aircraft don't argue, but somebody else will...
Our civilization wandered too far from reality, kicked out its own foundations, and now wanders the aether, insane. Its worse than what is typically described here as "stupidity", worse even than "corruption"; it is insanity.
The EATR doesn't care if you're only partially dead, or running away, if you get in its maw... you're dinner. It should be faster though, more of a predator. If it finds enough biomass, it can just fuel itself forever. There is an analogy here, I think, I just can't quite figure it out.
These drones remind me of an old Star Trek episode where future wars are fought vis a vis computers, and casualties as decided by the computer march into incinerators, as per agreement with both warring factions...
JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 8:58 am
reply ignore user
Sorry, I was snarking. I'll try harder to make it obvious next time.
But the ratio of break-ins to armed homes to successfully defensed homes should be an indication that mere firepower is insufficient. And as has been said for over 2000 years: War is the art of misdirection.
A large live dog has been proven to be one of the best deterrents.
"Look over yonder, here come the blues
The thirteenth of any time, powered by fools
I can see 'em comin'
Wearing a blue armoured coat
You're sittin' here with your violins
Hittin' wrong notes"
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 11:01 am
These drones remind me of an old Star Trek episode where future wars are fought vis a vis computers, and casualties as decided by the computer march into incinerators, as per agreement with both warring factions...
Is that what we want?
JD, when science has the reigns of humanity, pure efficiency and technological innovation determines the course we follow. Efficiency becomes the only moral goal.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 11:09 am
Some video-jockey in area 51-adjacent hitting the re-set button after taking down strangers in a strange land far far away is very bothersome.
They aren't real people, though, they're foreigners - they look different, they smell funny, and the chain of command told me they're the enemy. Plus, with proper engineering, you don't have to see the deaths at all. Maybe they'll superimpose pornographic imagery to serve as a reward, or jack the brain with a nice dopamine cocktail or even stimulate the pleasure centers of the brain directly.
I don't think anyone believed me before, but I wasn't lying...forget the predators...we have high altitude floating platforms with cameras and 'weapon' pods....designed for missle defense, don't think they are being used for that now.
Since this thread jumped a while back I thought some of you might be interested in what Erin Burnett wants in a man. Just the kind of down home girl I want to report on whats it really like on Main Street.
A few snips:
"Hiring a personal chef to prepare meals for the few nights a week I am home would be unforgettable."
"Family is important to me, so round-trip business-class tickets to Australia and New Zealand for my parents would earn you big points in my book."
"Yoga keeps me calm, so I'd be impressed if you thought to send a yoga instructor to my apartment for private sessions"
No, these are small. Sit up in the upper atmosphere..originally supposed to have some kind of chemical laser, but they ditched that and I honestly don't know what they carry now...but the have a fixed area of the sky that they sit in, move around a little bit, but the cameras give it a near earth satellite eye in sky capability. I thought it was some kind of anti-gravity thing before, but it evidently uses conventional aviation science. Anyway, you can use these to make a grid around an area, and blanket the whole area, and take out targets with precision. I don't have a name for them, just called floating platforms...
The consensus against gas/chemicals/bioweapons is something that was constructed by TPTB - they didn't need these weapons themselves, the weapons are sort of sloppy and unpredictable, and they act as equalizers of a sort for poorer states. They weren't banned out of some great ethical commitment. We had plenty of chemical weapons back in the day, just never ended up being much point to us using them.
They make a keypad safe with a spring door you can open in the dark (4 keys, in slots for 4 fingers of one hand) in about 5 seconds.
My friend did the industrial design on at least one of these units. He will be pleased to know it's making people happy. I had two demonstrations of it - the first when he was showing it off, and the second when a prototype unit unintentionally let go of the latch and launched a beer bottle sailing across the shop. The latter demo sold me on it.
Capacity usage in the US of A won't recover when there's so much available in China-
The Michael Phelps record breaking eCONomy CONtinues!
Our capacity for wall street bailouts is at a record high though.
~ one of these things is not like the other
one of these things does not belong ~
Just when I was about to get quick-pigged, I stopped, and here's what I wrote for the last thread. OT
There's an interesting front-page piece in today's NY Times about the real rate of unemployment, counting part-time. It echoes things some regulars here have been saying a long time.
ECONOMIC SCENE; In Recession, a Bleaker Path for Workers to Slog - NY Times
The last two paragraphs are the best:
"If lawmakers do decide more is needed, they would do well to remember that this is not an equal opportunity recession. By September, one out of every four Californians — and Oregonians and South Carolinians and Michiganders — who would like to have a full-time job might not have one.
Who ever thought we would be saying such a thing?"
I've noticed that lately the Times is resorting more to personal reflection, rather than straight news reporting, to try to wake its readers up to what's happening. I think this is because their online readership is growing as their print readership shrinks, and they ultimately would like to emulate and compete with CR. (I'm serious.)
CPI starting to rise, industrial production still declining.
st-st-st-st-st-st-stagflation ahead!!!!
Last month's data was revised lower too!
this is good for +200 on the dow.
Capital One credit card defaults rise in June
In a regulatory filing on Wednesday, Capital One said the annualized net charge-off rate for U.S. credit cards -- debts the company believes it will never collect -- rose to 9.73 percent in June from 9.41 percent in May.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
The capacity utilization number is an excellent barometer for the economy. It's the lowest reading in my lifetime. I don't see how the economy can be improving when factories are being used less and less.
"I don't see how the economy can be improving when factories are being used less and less. "
bbbbbbut, it is less worse than forecast!!! that is good, isn't it?
Imports?
If the fishwraps wanted to be competitive...
Newspapers would have to pay people like us, and then accept whatever we write, w/o editing.
So today's excuse is that someone or group in Asia bought a few hundred PC's and made INTC's #'s appear less smelly then forecast? What happened to the actual results with YOY comparisons?
Our bi-polar market...gotta love it.
Ciao
MS
It looks to me that we are going to rally on the better than expected earnings reports AGAIN this quarter! sad!
What I like best about blog news is the constant vetting that takes place. Not just of the stated facts or headlines, but of the context and presentation of the reported facts.
Newspapers would have to pay people like us, and then accept whatever we write, w/o editing.
And then add an ignore feature.
The next most compelling excuse is COF.......charge-offs rise almost 5% and the stock goes up 9%?
When are people going to wake and see who is controlling these markets.....
ah..that's rhetorical in case you ask.
Ciao
MS
Bonds taking a savage beating. This after a weak reading on mortgage apps for purchases and chain store sales going negative again YoY. In the markets we're still seeing the series of buying and selling panics that characterize bubble economies:
"Oh my God, deflation!"
"Oh my God, hyperinflation!"
"Oh my God, deflation!"
"Oh my God, hyperinflation!"
"Oh my God, deflation!"
...
What happened to the actual results with YOY comparisons?
You can't do YOY.... this is a once in a universe, 25 stdev event!!!
Get with the program!
Me? I could never even get a letter to the editor published.
Too off the wall, not doubt.
Henh henh. Sweet revenge.
MS,
There is nothing wrong with Intel as a continuing operation. Valuations are a different matter entirely. With Intel, the divy looks ok, but long run tech earnings should trade at a discount, not a premium imo.
What happens when GS starts trading exclusively with itself?
Wasn't today supposed to be Caliboomsday? Or the 28th?
Or October 1st?
rich,
Thanks for the link.
Numbers still indicate deflation, reduced demand, but inventory liquidation looks like a balance-sheet improvment as one set of liabilities shrinks, however the other liability, no-demand has yet to make it to balance sheets. Even GS admits leaner times, smaller spreads ahead.
If anyone has a traditional 401K-esque still, today is a great day to sell, sell, sell.
-bh
CPI goes up, half a million a month lose their jobs, we've transitioned to a socialist dictatorship in mere months, whole industries are now run by faceless inexperienced bureaucrats and political lackeys, more industry is on tap for complete governmental control, taxes are going up, wages going down, and your every step in life (from how you set your thermostat to the kinds of light bulbs you can buy to how much electricity you can use) is going to be monitored and controlled by some new governmental regulation... and one company posts results verging on doublespeak (we had a loss but discounting the loss it looks good) and the WHOLE market edges upwards?
If this isn't mass insanity then I have no further description and am forced to conclude that America is getting exactly what it asked for. Good luck and stop your whimpering... this is what you let happen. So obviously, you must have wanted to live in a third world socialist tyranny. Fun huh?
This is what happens when you take production and remove it from the centers of consumption.
You starve your very own customers via unemployment. Gee, hoocoodanode?
The first sin was bad enough, Obama/Congress/The Fed/Treasury will compound it by subsidizing this sin to the fullest extent possible.
Tell me about the bottom again Dennis Kneale...and then finish the story off by snorting enough to OD this time.
yea....any actual results that don't correspond with "up" apparently are not useful.
So what happens next year when the results (which will still suck) are compared to this year?
lawyerliz-
They already do that.....I think they just split the prop desk into two groups and ladder up with each other. Of course you need to hand it off to someone.....I think JPM's results will show they are the 'someone' for now.
Ciao
MS
shill,
there are a few problems with that analysis. One is GS. Explain to me how GS fits into that picture.
thanks,
-bh
Thanks, I will continue to watch wonderingly from the sidelines.
Unless an unbelieveably cheap condo comes my way, or the thing
collapses.
Back to work.
I'd be willing to bet that INTC's next quarter is dismal. There are many ways to push sales ahead a quarter and costs back.
They needed to hit certain targets this quarter for revenue and gross margin, and they made sure of it.
The U.S. PC market can't be strong with so much vacant office space and govt budget freezes. The office and govt. market is two-thirds of PC growth, with education being another. Whenever an office goes vacant, there's often a not-so-old and very workable spare PC left over for future use.
oh hell, I'll just make a wild-ass prediction. DOW 6000 by Dec 31st, 2009. S&P 675.
--bh
Just 20 years ago, this is what our short-term information possibilities were:
TV: a few talking heads talking to millions, laced with advertising
Radio: a few talking heads talking to millions, laced with advertising
Newspapers: a few writing heads for a readership of millions, laced with advertising
Magazines: a few writing heads for a readership of millions, laced with advertising
On a long-term basis:
Anybody ever seen a book containing advertising?
there are a few problems with that analysis. One is GS. Explain to me how GS fits into that picture.
Please explain to me what you mean, then I will try and refute.
Intel 6 month results.... yeah, green shoots...
2009 Net Rev's 15,169B
2008 Net Rev's 19,143B
Down 21% y/y
2009 Op Income 635M
2008 Op Income 4.317B
Down 85% y/y
INTC is a monopoly for the most part. The actual results are horrible so if a business that enjoys virtually no competition can't grow for the sake of growing (yes... simplistic I know) then what have we got left? I've seen companies get punished for growing (which was part of it's forecast and plan-NFLX to name but one example) but this disconnect in equity performance vs. actual hard results , in so many cases now, lack of results is just getting ridiculous.
Ciao
MS
rich,
There are two trends killing and going to continue to kill Intel.
First, lack of Government hardware refresh in this cycle. Nobody is upgrading to Windows 7, period. Second, VMWARE consolidation has allowed us to shrink hardware footprints and only require buying 2-10 systems instead of 100-1000 systems. Because those 6-core processors allow us greater virtual machine densities, the consolidation ratio is that much greater. If it was 1:10 two years ago, 1:20 last year, it's 1:50 this year.
Few agencies are undergoing hardware refresh at this stage of the game having 1) do it with Wn2K8 already, or 2) simply going with consolidated model.
They'll survive, but earnings will be dismal.
-bh
Moody's drops state's bond rating below 'A,' may cut more
Moody's drops state's bond rating below 'A,' may cut more | Money & Company | Los Angeles Times
not indicative of reality. Goldman Sach's is doing awesome. Read it and weep and watch the green go up!
Green Sh1t...I mean SHOOTS! This is a positive indicator that domestic supply of these items will start becoming a shortage....Inflationary or just depression data? I dont know...
"Anybody ever seen a book containing advertising?"
Like the yellow pages? Or do you mean light reading?
I think this is because their online readership is growing as their print readership shrinks, and they ultimately would like to emulate and compete with CR. (I'm serious.)
Rich,
Then they will need to find someone with more on the ball then Gretchen. Or at least someone who can figure out the right people to gather information from.
"Oh my God, deflation!"
"Oh my God, hyperinflation!"
"Oh my God, deflation!"
"Oh my God, hyperinflation!"
"Oh my God, deflation!"
...
BTW it's critical to understand that the long-term becomes highly unpredictable in this kind of environment and it's hard to have specific expectations about business decisions.
This is why such an environment isn't really supportive of recovery - stability and expectation of future stability is key to modern business because of the reliance on credit (and thus future cash flows).
That why it might really be better to reach a "stable bottom" even if that meant a much deeper GDP contraction in the short term.
Declining production + inflation =
Something like 90% of the businesses around in 1929, were toes up by 1933.
That why it might really be better to reach a "stable bottom" even if that meant a much deeper GDP contraction in the short term.
sorry, that doesnt fit with the election cycle.
Depression=Declining Production + Inflation/ More Job Losses
"whole industries are now run by faceless inexperienced bureaucrats and political lackeys,"
.....this is how the FedGov has operated since the late 1800s - reward the highest posts to the highest contributors regardless of skill sets or intelligence. Career government employees have learned to despise the Presidential, Congressional, and Judicial appointees.
Now that practice is being applied to "private enterprise"............it's a short walk on a shorter plank from here.
This is what happens when you take production and remove it from the centers of consumption.
You starve your very own customers via unemployment. Gee, hoocoodanode?
+10
Exactamundo! I don't know this is such a hard thing for the mensa members out there in industry to grasp.
Ghost beat me to it.
Declining production + inflation =
8 rolls of paper towels costs me $18.99 per pack!
well based on the wonderful news out there....I'm dumping all my remaining comm longs into this non-sense....it's just been outed, in public. I will keep a small core position in DBA and SLV however the bulk of them are gone into this fluffy BS.
Ciao
MS
Rich,
Regarding Intel:
They upped guidance. That said, the valulations look a bit high to me. I really don't know why so many continually discount future tech earnings the way they do. Almost all long run tech earning converge at zero. Unlike the finance arena, tech is a competitive and unprotected market. Tech should trade at a discount to the broader markets, not a premium imo.
ahh well, off to the salt mines
Just think how much of a market goose we can expect if Capacity Utilization delines to 60%, or even lower. Better still - Idle all plants, for a real WallSt treat.!
at least we didn't hear the "CAP EX will save us" mantra. I'm sure we will very soon though.....old and tired excuses seem to pop up with regularity now. BTW the action in the market tells me that the Indexes can't even allow a small pullback (for overall health reasons) because it's still too damn levered. A 5% pullback would kill it...that's just friggin' sad.
Ciao
MS
shill,
GS is a metastasized corporate and bank-holding entity that is multi-national. This not a false choice fallacy between glorious democratic republicanism or pinko-commy socialism disguised as democracy. It is corporatist multi-aligned intra-continentally hedged organizations that are for profit, there’s not yours. GS is the ugliest form of the purest most cynical most pragmatic most sinister type of capitalism. They are on all sides of all positions and stand to gain whether we, the collective we, fail or not.
That's my point. People can clean their guns and stockpile the ammo in the event that those socialist democrats up in dc are going to align with Nato and the UN to seize our guns, but the system itself has already been undermined by profound forces that can materially result in one quarter of the working population simply not having a job, the other quarter being under-employed, the other quarter being slowly starved of purchasing power.
That's my point. How is this administration actually regulating, socializing, command-economizing GS, or AIG (still), or any other TBTF financial institution? Fair question, with all do respect. And IMHO democracy is what has systemically failed in this country which is in decline. The material question to me is what shape, type, color that decline will take. So in answer, I have my own hedges, which are in many cases absent the market, including a lack of focus or interest on which party is stealing my children's future.
--bh
We are at an interesting crossroads in retail...
Retailers since xmas have blown out inventory below cost in an attempt to clear the decks, but new inventory is coming in slower and higher-priced than previously bought goods, f.o.b. China.
Rich: The U.S. PC market can't be strong with so much vacant office space and govt budget freezes. The office and govt. market is two-thirds of PC growth, with education being another. Whenever an office goes vacant, there's often a not-so-old and very workable spare PC left over for future use.
Then add the secondary market for plastic ferns.
Black Friday this year will be next year
. . . or the year after.
Maybe this is a good thing?
I have enough stuff, and those people who move numbers around all day can find something productive to do.
Maybe plant a garden?
Perhaps Goldman Sachs can change their name like that mercenary army that came of age during the Section 8 Years?
Point well taken BH...and Ill add with a little snicker...come and try to confiscate..................
But bring friends...
New term: "stagdepressionflation".
Yesterday I bought a copy of Keynes' "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money".... Will reading this book corrupt me? How about just staring at the cover?
To give you an idea of how little things change in the scheme of things...
King George III relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Germans (mostly Hessians) to do his dirty work, and our King George II relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Blackwaters to do his dirty work.
They will have to change their name because it's too prophetic.
Men who pump up stocks and leave you holding the sack at the top, so they can hide everything offshore in gold.
There's no way dollar devaluation and higher inflation can be good for U.S. stocks in the end game. Too many international sack-holders.
To give you an idea of how little things change in the scheme of things...
King George III relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Germans (mostly Hessians) to do his dirty work, and our King George II relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Blackwaters to do his dirty work.
Now King Obama is relying on an army of 30,000 Goldman Saxons to do his work.
King George III relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Germans (mostly Hessians) to do his dirty work, and our King George II relied upon a mercenary army of 30,000 Blackwaters to do his dirty work.
And we know what happened when Rome started using mercenary armies.
It took 1600 hundred years to get a city the size of Rome again.
NASA -400
Johnson Controls -211
Riviera Beach, FL potential layoffs -35
US Airways -600
Unemployment may top 13% in Sacramento, CA
Lockheed Martin -600
City of Surprise, AZ -4
Anderson Windows -250
St. Joseph Health System (CA) -159
North Philadeplhia Health System -80
Detroit mayor proposes 26 furlough days for city employees
Independent Health Association -50
Potential Chicago, IL layoffs if no deal reached -431
JBS SA (Brazil) -700
Obama: Unemployment likely to keep going up
City of Calgary (Canada) -30
Chicago employee unions face big layoffs tonight -1,500
Stride Rite -120
Hawaii public workers may accept 5% pay cut
Jobless benefits run out in record numbers
Grand Lake timber -29
Norfolk Southern Railroad -84
Tallahassee, FL layoff update -159
Moreno Valley, CA teachers accept furlough days
UNC Asheville -8
The economy is even worse than you think
Cardinal Glass -30
GE Capital -127
Untitled Document
Thanks bh, my thoughts also.
Wonder what total capacity utilization was in March 1933. Any way of finding that out?
"ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 9:27 am
CPI starting to rise, industrial production still declining.
st-st-st-st-st-st-stagflation ahead!!!!"
Are you sh-sh-sh-sh-sh-sh-sh-sh-ure?
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: What's the Real CPI?
rich
What about Gollum Sack?
" ac (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:00 am
That why it might really be better to reach a "stable bottom" even if that meant a much deeper GDP contraction in the short term."
Gasp! Heretic! Stone him!!!!
/snark off
for the moment anyway
" July 15, 2009
Russia’s lower house of parliament approved a $7.5 billion crisis fund July 15 to help Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, all members of the Eurasian Economic Community, confront the global economic crisis, The Associated Press reported. Details of whether the aid will be in the form of loans or grants and what terms might be attached are not clear."
"Perhaps Goldman Sachs can change their name"
Worked for GMAC........"would you like a pony little girl?"
which-
well there is a way however at that point in time we still had some capacity that remained.....we hadn't finished off-shoring it so methinks it would be an ineffective comparison. We've changed so much in the ensuing years that any of it's data (and it's metrics used to gather) are most likely not even close to how it's "measured" now.
Ciao
MS
Blackwater is now XE!!!!!!, would bet GS is looking at name change.
Pavel-
Ukraine not on the list there. What a shocker....
" Which is worse - bankers or terrorists (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:15 am
New term: "stagdepressionflation"."
Well doesn't that just roll off the tongue
I could envision Goniff Sachs changing their name to UP...
as in UP was up again, for no apparent reason
Stride Rite sells millions of children's shoes in the U.S., and not one pair is made here any more.
These cuts are among execs, marketing, sales, etc.
I said some time ago that you would know it's a really deep recession when you look at the shoes on middle-class children's feet and they are too small.
Cinco-X
Or "economic flatlining" will also work.
A friend who is an independent sales rep for machine tools says his business is down 80%, and the only customers buying are defense-related and firearms manufacturers. Also said he was in a Cabella's recently and there was a long line of people waiting to buy $800+ handguns. It's rather scary that firearms demand is so strong the makers are expanding capacity.
Well at this point, I am trying to stop taking everything personal, and just enjoy the show...I mean at some level, this pump and manipulation is breathtaking to watch...that old proverb about living in interesting times....my high school economics teacher cursed my senior class with this line...said we were the most boring class to come through and didn't have the balls to do anything, let alone make it in the world...the only thing that could help us out, were 'interesting times'...that was a great year...class valedictorian was a Chinese exchange student...her speech in very good broken english, extolled the virtues of logic and hard work and the chinese work ethic in general. Also informed us that we were the most lazy people she had met, and the 'rewards' of capitalism were the seeds of our own destruction. Good times, good times...I need to buy a fiddle and learn a couple of jigs.
Another explanation why Bush proposed a manned mission to Mars:
Paraguay was a decoy.
This is probably heresy on an economics blog, but if all the small players, i.e. everyone except Goldman Sachs would get out of the market, it would, in the intermediate to long term, help take away their license to print money. If you're playing the game (especially at this disadvantage), you're enabling them.
I'm serious about the Keynes... what parts should I pay especial attention to, as I am reading it to help understand better the foundations of monetarist thinking and real Keynes versus "Keynesianism", not to pass a test. Just thought I needed a counterpart to "The Road to Serfdom" for perspective.
2 ways of approaching the manufacture of shoes...
In the Soviet Union, the director of the shoe factory received an order to produce one million shoes, but only had enough leather to make 500,000. So, he ordered one million shoes to be made in the smallest women's size. Problem solved.
In the United States we simply don't make shoes anymore.
"The capacity utilization number is an excellent barometer for the economy. It's the lowest reading in my lifetime. I don't see how the economy can be improving when factories are being used less and less."------------------------------------------------------------------
Kidhorn, software and services are replacing bricks and mortar. On line newspaper readership, for instance, is increasing while printed editions sales are declining. No need for more printing presses but increased need for sales software, instead.
No need for trading floors either. Trading can be done from home or the office in Tokyo, London, or Lake Charles, Louisiana. Just ask GS.
In the United States we simply don't make shoes anymore.
If we ever have a draft for war again, we'll have to ask permission of China first to get the boots that the troops will need.
Kyrgyzstan tripled the rent the US pays for the Manas airbase.
NATO's northern supply line could be a cash cow for the 'Stans.
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 2:38 pm
In the United States we simply don't make shoes anymore.
If we ever have a draft for war again, we'll have to ask permission of China first to get the boots that the troops will need.
Lee went to Gettysburg for boots.
Way off topic but I thought this was funny.
NH man charged 23 quadrillion dollars for smokes
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Rich,
If you want to find a company cooking the books, look past Intel. They might massage a bit at worst.
Leftover computers from bankruptcies are sold through liquidators to overseas entities or charities who weren't going to buy a computer anyway. These computers are not suitable replacements for new computers.
Someone would need to know the current practical applications of SOP 97-2 and EITF 00-21 at a minimum to understand the revenue model for devices with embedded software. To understand what's going on at Intel, you'd also have to have documentation on VSOE for them.
Not One Cent,
beat me to it. Good old shoe factory in Gettysburg.
The real reason behind Bush's going to Mars fantasy?
The Sunday before he announced his grandiose plans to go to the red planet on Monday, Paul O'Neil spoke his mind on 60 Minutes, describing just how reckless W's administration was.
They couldn't silence an honest man with facts, so they did it by inventing a bigger story for the 24 hour news cycle...
"Crapricorn 1"
" ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:35 am
I'm serious about the Keynes... what parts should I pay especial attention to, as I am reading it to help understand better the foundations of monetarist thinking and real Keynes versus "Keynesianism", not to pass a test. Just thought I needed a counterpart to "The Road to Serfdom" for perspective."
If you're already leaning towards that sort of thinking, it'll probably re-enforce your inclinations. Conversely, if you think he's full of crap, you'll become certain.
I personally view Keynes primary teaching on transfer payments and government stimulus as a failed theory, though all of my non-military economics professors were Keynesians. Granted, that view was formed when it looked as thought the monetarist had all of the answers, which we know now not to be true. Oh well.....
New term: "stagdepressionflation".
Last year, Roubini was tossing around stag-deflation, but that term is difficult to say and seems redundant.
Anybody remember the Bush/mars rover deal? Some high level meeting between Bush, NASA, and experts from various places...had the whole space community thinking that there would be an announcement about finding life on Mars...probably just at the microscopic level in the soil...there was a real frenzy for a while, and then nothing. Wonder what the briefing was about?
I've heard (somewhere) that we also have to buy ammunition from offshore sources. We can't even fight a war with our own products. So much for the Arsenal of Democracy.
" Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:44 am
Anybody remember the Bush/mars rover deal? Some high level meeting between Bush, NASA, and experts from various places..."
GWB probably wanted to drive the rover for a little while.
shill (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:15 am replyIgnore userPoint well taken BH...and Ill add with a little snicker...come and try to confiscate..................
But bring friends...
CHILD
You men from the bank?
PETE
You Wash's boy?
CHILD
Yassir! And Daddy tolt me I'm to
shoot whosoever from the bank!
He pokes his rifle at the three men, who raise their hands.
DELMAR
Well, we ain't from no bank, young
feller.
CHILD
Yassir! I'm also suppose to shoot
folks servin' papers!
DELMAR
Well we ain't got no papers.
CHILD
Yassir! I nicked the census man!
lama - good to see you comment !
Had to google VSOE ... does Intel get much revenue from software? Sure there's a lot embedded, but it's mostly in the chips, and the deliveries seem quite discrete ....
Jim,
The ammo thing is true. When Iraq started to heat up, Army found out that the remaining ammo factories could not produce enough. That is in part why there has been a shortage at times throughout the US. Army is buying it all up.
The Mars rovers found nearly pure Hopium all over the surface of the red planet, and they asked W if he'd like to freebase some of it.
Feudal,
Watch for assuming fixed prices and assuming that the "right" demand is knowable and assuming that equilibrium is an end state.
" JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:45 am
I've heard (somewhere) that we also have to buy ammunition from offshore sources. We can't even fight a war with our own products. So much for the Arsenal of Democracy."
I seriously doubt it. Aren't arms one of our biggest exports? I do recall that a fairly large munitions plant down in AL disappeared from the face of the Earth a few years ago, but I doubt that its loss left us unable to supply bullets. Besides, it may be more economical to buy .223s from China. At a billion per day, or whatever it was, I'm all for saving some dough by outsourcing.
Some high level meeting between Bush, NASA, and experts from various places
Don't remember the meeting, but Bush was probably informed, very politely, that using a moonbase to go to Mars made no sense whatsoever
"If you're playing the game (especially at this disadvantage), you're enabling them."
.........we're the little guy...........our last chances ended almost 40-years ago. The only way "to play", is to actively "not play".
I personally view Keynes primary teaching on transfer payments and government stimulus as a failed theory, though all of my non-military economics professors were Keynesians.
My opinion is that Keynes' government stimulus idea works on paper, but doesn't fully appreciate the political reality of such a policy. Politicians are supposed to pay down the debt as soon as the economy improves. Instead, the electorate wants perpetual stimuli and puts enormous pressure on the government to keep the gravy train rolling after recovery. This leads to unsustainable deficits, which, it turns out, actually do matter.
So, good idea on paper, but doesn't work in practice.
There's no money to be made making bullets, but a veritable shitlode can be made making something that costs millions of dollars, but for some reason is vulnerable against a $15 i.e.d.
"
"If you're playing the game (especially at this disadvantage), you're enabling them."
.........we're the little guy...........our last chances ended almost 40-years ago. The only way "to play", is to actively "not play"."
Right; that's what I said, except for the part about 40 years ago.
I've been pushing for the term "subflation."
Subflation: Substandard growth. Sub Rosa reported statistics. Subconcious subliterate populace. Subsequently; subsistence wages and subsidized by government.
The middle class is the target. We will go back to the Rich/Merchantile/Working Poor model like it or not. We can't do it with old fashioned inflation; people are too smart and mobile with their money. We can't do it with just taxes either, there's still barely enough democracy left to thwart the attempt. We will devalue and inflate the currency while stripping value from assets.
Oh, I almost forgot. Subflation includes the Substitution of lesser goods in the BLS inflation index. The converse is known as hedonic adjustments.
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 9:42 am
If you're already leaning towards that sort of thinking, it'll probably re-enforce your inclinations. Conversely, if you think he's full of crap, you'll become certain.
I personally view Keynes primary teaching on transfer payments and government stimulus as a failed theory, though all of my non-military economics professors were Keynesians. Granted, that view was formed when it looked as thought the monetarist had all of the answers, which we know now not to be true. Oh well...
I simply see Hayek fitting in with a lot of my pre-existing prejudices about economics and was not formally educated in the subject and hoped exposure to what is essentially his polar opposite might force some objectivity on my attempts to understand the limitations of both ways of thinking. But more importantly with Keynes, I want to have a better idea what he actually thought versus what followers and later establishment dupes made him out to be saying.
NH man charged 23 quadrillion dollars for smokes
That is at least the second story like that (other was a girl and a phone, I think).
Congressional War Pork in action: The F-22 Fighter
"The United States' top fighter jet, the Lockheed Martin F-22, has recently required more than 30 hours of maintenance for every hour in the skies, pushing its hourly cost of flying to more than $44,000, a far higher figure than for the warplane it replaces, confidential Pentagon test results show.
"It is a disgrace that you can fly a plane [an average of] only 1.7 hours before it gets a critical failure" that jeopardizes success of the aircraft's mission, said a Defense Department critic of the plane who is not authorized to speak on the record. Other skeptics inside the Pentagon note that the planes, designed 30 years ago to combat a Cold War adversary, have cost an average of $350 million apiece and say they are not a priority in the age of small wars and terrorist threats.
Sprey said engineers who worked on it told him that because of Lockheed's use of hundreds of subcontractors, quality control was so poor that workers had to create a "shim line" at the Georgia plant where they retooled badly designed or poorly manufactured components. "Each plane wound up with all these hand-fitted parts that caused huge fits in maintenance," he said. "They were not interchangeable."
Where's Henry Ford when you need him?
There has been some gradual progress. At the plane's first operational flight test in September 2004, it fully met two of 22 key requirements and had a total of 351 deficiencies; in 2006, it fully met five; in 2008, when squadrons were deployed at six U.S. bases, it fully met seven.
Obama/Gates have threatened a veto if more funds are appropriated for the F-22. Think they'll prevail?
Whatever, the market is going up, that's all that matters.
Not One Cent...
Any News Radio fans remember the episode where Matthew accidentally overpays Jimmy James' phone bill by billions of dollars...
I bowled in an arms merchant league for a few years...
I'd guess the average was around 135, of the 50 participants.
You'd think with such high i.q.'s, that 48 of the 50 people wouldn't be righty-tighty-hypocrites (my wife and I the lone exceptions) but the military industrial complex is full of people like that.
Don't remember the meeting, but Bush was probably informed, very politely, that using a moonbase to go to Mars made no sense whatsoever
So they settled on a Marsbase to go to the Moon.
I met an F-22 pilot/test pilot a few years ago. Prays every time he goes up.
cinco @ 7:35
They would just turn inwards and use it's institutional client base as it's own counter. I suspect they are already doing it in a small way. One of the reasons it's internal book is outperforming it's managed accounts. It's impossible to perform the way they have and not be doing something below board (on avg. $178m a day). The problem is simple in as much as there is/are enough people willing to take a gamble riding the GS train that it keeps the smaller fish in line and willing to deal with it rather then expose it. They are the market...take that away from them and the people who herd into trading are at a loss as to where yield is going to come from.
with regards to the Keynes question...all you really need to know is the following quote straight from Larry Summers: "with the great insight of Keynes......"
You can then use the rest of the information available to get a great idea of what they are trying to do.
Ciao
MS
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 7:54 am
Obama/Gates have threatened a veto if more funds are appropriated for the F-22. Think they'll prevail?
One word answer: Osprey.
The last generation of silk scarves are fighting the future.
"Besides, it may be more economical to buy .223s from China. At a billion per day, or whatever it was, I'm all for saving some dough by outsourcing.
.....I frankly think "outsourcing" is what got us here - having ammo made by China is like having them make MY baby's formula - no thanks.
Ya and the Brady Bunch are just a bunch of pathetic limp wristed pony tailed champagne drinking big banker finance backed socialist loving neo conned bamboozled shiny shoe liberal corporate gated community Nancy Nazis...
But they have High IQ's.......think hamster/pelosi.
I can't imagine anything striking more fear in the heart of a soldier than knowing that my ammo was Made in China.
Holy Cow...
The Bush/Nasa meeting was specifically about some data the Rover reported. Life or water were the two big guesses....I will dig around and try to find the story.
Old joke:
Remember, all your equipment was made by the lowest bidder.
<The Bush/Nasa meeting was specifically about some data the Rover reported. Life or water were the two big guesses....I will dig around and try to find the story.
Maybe Bush thought that the Mars Rover had located Iraq's WMDs?
Red Wing Shoes - still made in America
There used to be life on Mars but Bush cleared all the brush.
" Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:57 am
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 7:54 am
Obama/Gates have threatened a veto if more funds are appropriated for the F-22. Think they'll prevail?
One word answer: Osprey."
I worked a subcontractor making accelerometers for that project over 20 years ago. Boy was I glad I left after only 9 mos. the CEO of the company was asking me to sign off on testing that hadn't been done (later found out he just signed my name anyway), etc., and the whole thing seemed like a real fiasco. A couple of years later, folks started dying in test flights, but I don't think our components were ever found to be at fault. In any event, they never came after me, thank goodness.
The real reason behind Bush's going to Mars fantasy?
And the answer is.......??
Easy one. Whose district did Johnson Space Center reside in? That same individual was THE KEY individual in ramming (or should I say hammering?) through all of W's initiatives. When that person left office the Mars nonsense was no longer needed.
Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 9:49 am
Feudal,
Watch for assuming fixed prices and assuming that the "right" demand is knowable and assuming that equilibrium is an end state.
So noted. I would expect this and pretty much take for granted the economy is a non-equilibrium system and discount the presumption of rational economic utility theory that the future demand is knowable. So I guess I already enter into this with a fairly strong bias.
Sub Rosa reported statistics.
Very oxymoronic.
"
we will not monetize (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:59 am
I can't imagine anything striking more fear in the heart of a soldier than knowing that my ammo was Made in China.
Holy Cow..."
BTW, I don't have any info that the ammo is made in China. However, it's a standard NATO round IIRC, so it's probably sourced somewhere overseas, but maybe not. I just pulled China ot of my @$$. Now for some Prep-H
Hey, Walter Mitty Sobchaks:
What's the plan of action with all of your guns & ammo you've bought since November 5, 2008?
Eras of "small wars". If economic trendlines continue, are you so sure?
Eras of "small wars". If economic trendlines continue, are you so sure?
"I can't imagine anything striking more fear in the heart of a soldier than knowing that my ammo was Made in China.....Holy Cow"
......Yep......but then I'm a BIG advocate of the advantages of the "semi-automatic shotgun-out-to-the-front-gate" mentality. I don't need much Korean, Indian, or Chinese ammo.
I know the 'plan' down here in Texas is to start selling them when TSHTF. People have stockpiled unbelievable amounts of firearms as an 'investment' strategy. I am always behind the curve.
Looks like I sure picked the right week to liquidate my 401(k).
" Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 11:01 am
Old joke:
Remember, all your equipment was made by the lowest bidder."
[Medicine-for-people] Supplements: Beware the Lowest Bidder
"== What's in the Capsule ==
One of the more trenchant comments about the 1960's space program came from
astronaut John Glenn: "As I hurtled through space, one thought kept
crossing my mind: Every part of this capsule was supplied by the lowest
bidder." "
Moody’s says More Stimulus, Foreclosure Aid Likely Needed
Research Recap » Blog Archive » Moody’s says More Stimulus, Foreclosure Aid Likely Needed
World Trade Slumps as Protectionist Tendencies Reemerge
Research Recap » Blog Archive » World Trade Slumps as Protectionist Tendencies Reemerge
Watch an honest insider tell the truth about what was happening in W's administration in 2002.
YouTube - Before Scott McClellan, there was Paul O'Neill (1 of 2)
" shill (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 11:11 am
Moody’s says More Stimulus, Foreclosure Aid Likely Needed
http://www.researchrecap.com/index.php/2009/07/15/moodys-says-more-stimu..."
Why?! I thought GS had good earnings reports and were expecting big bonuses?
[2005 article on ammo from overseas]
US forces have fired so many bullets in Iraq and Afghanistan - an estimated 250,000 for every insurgent killed - that American ammunition-makers cannot keep up with demand. As a result the US is having to import supplies from Israel.
The GAO report notes that the three government-owned, contractor-operated plants that produce small- and medium-calibre ammunition were built in 1941.
John Pike, director of the Washington military research group GlobalSecurity.org, said that, based on the GAO's figures, US forces had expended around six billion bullets between 2002 and 2005. "How many evil-doers have we sent to their maker using bullets rather than bombs? I don't know," he said.
The other was Israel Military Industries, an Israeli ammunition manufacturer linked to the Israeli government, which produces the bulk of weapons and ordnance for the Israeli Defence Force.
The Pentagon reportedly bought 313 million rounds of 5.56mm, 7.62mm and 50-calibre ammunition last year and paid $10m (about £5.5m) more than it would have cost for it to produce the ammunition at its own facilities
The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined in June to 68.0 percent
Obama is recycling Clinton's boondoggle about two-year-college degrees.
That is a malinvestment in more unneeded capacity.
It also is an expensive disguise for warehousing the unemployed.
Anybody ever seen a book containing advertising?
Was quite common in paperbacks in the 70's. Usually card stock bound in the middle. Mostly cigarette advertising.
OT Re: stimulus and possible stimulus II
The current plan “will have a positive effect, but the real economy is a sicker patient,” Tyson said in a speech in Singapore today [July 7].
Obama Adviser Says U.S. Should Mull Second Stimulus (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Thought the quote was unintentionally cute: The operation was successful, but the patient died.
The gun thing is interesting, I know a lot of people make fun of it, but it is both down right scary and a little bit uplifting as well. I will give a personal example. Wife's family bugged us for years to go visit an older relative who lives near us. Wife doesn't do much with her family anymore, but finally gave in. Buzz was this gentleman was really nice and would take you out for dinner. Well, we met him and his wife at a Golden Corral, had a very awkward dinner. He was a Korean war vet, so when he found out that I was an Army brat, he warmed up and started telling me war stories. Anyway, I don't know if I impressed him or what, he invited me back to their house...and while my wife and his wife looked at photos...he took me to the garage, and then underneath the garage...had a special room.....it was like a weapons depot. Actually had a.50 cal machine gun with crates of ammo. M-16s, M-60s, grenade launchers...you name it, he had, including some nice sniper gear. Now this guy is in his 70s...I asked him what it was all for...just said he was ready. Now just how many of these 'guys' are out there is my question?
vonbek777,
Quite a few. Father-in-laws' estate included a visit from the ATF. They said this kind of thing was quite common, for gentleman of a certain age, to have acquired not-quite-legal firearms, or have otherwise been modified in a not-quite-legal fashion (think quieted).
--bh
Moody’s Expects US CMBS Delinquencies to Reach 5-6%
Research Recap » Blog Archive » Moody’s Expects US CMBS Delinquencies to Reach 5-6%
So, is the plan to kill all of your neighbors, or recruit them into your own army?
Guns don't kill people. Drones remote controlled from 7000km away by video game junkies do.
Now just how many of these 'guys' are out there is my question?
I don't think you really want to know. More than just a fringe. But most probably don't have the arsenal you described. Some of that stuff is way way illegal.
Paranoia is a fixture of American society. Richard Hofstader described the phenom in the mid-sixties
I had an uncle who had several automatic assault rifles, (M-16, AK-47, Mach 10, 9mm uzi, etc.) Some of which he made silencers for. The mach 10 had been converted to handle slugs in 40 round clips.
I used to think he was crazy.
" Charles Kiting (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 11:16 am
Anybody ever seen a book containing advertising?
Was quite common in paperbacks in the 70's. Usually card stock bound in the middle. Mostly cigarette advertising."
Isn't there often a section in the back of some books trying to sell other books by the author or publisher?
Buying guns and ammo is easy, killing somebody... not so much.
Mommy mommy he has a gun he has a gun.............boo hoo.
JD,
Father-in-law only spoke once about putting somebody into his sites and watching him crumple. Once. It was not fun, or good, or glorious. It haunted him.
--bh
squidward,
I really shouldn't be here. Much too busy...but an addict.
My point was that some of this stuff gets complex and is not transaction based. There's a slowly moving distinction between product and software portions of sales. Typically, the marketing drives the Rev Rec (i.e.: If the ads are selling a toy, book the sale when you ship, if the toy is a new video game, that's where it gets foggy).
Speaking of used computers, I've got 4 pallets full outside my office du jour. What are my bids?
JD, I have no idea. But he said he built his own claymores too...so I pity his wife cleaning up the place.
JD - fortunately, that is the crux.
"Isn't there often a section in the back of some books trying to sell other books by the author or publisher?"
Imagine if there was only 10 seconds of commercials per hour of TV or Radio, always @ the 59:50 mark of each hour, or just one page of advertising on the back page of the newspaper or magazines?
Then the pithy argument that books contain advertising might have merit.
Father-in-law only spoke once about putting somebody into his sites and watching him crumple. Once. It was not fun, or good, or glorious. It haunted him.
I too am haunted every night knowing that if my home is broken into and my family is attacked I have nothing to protect them with.....I too crumple at the thought.
But will agree one does not need 100 guns and 10,000 rounds of ammo for home protection.
3 guns and a few thousand rounds are more than ample..
Yep, warehousing the unemployed.
They do that in Europe as well. Most students don't work, as there is no work. Kids are also tracked into classes that prepare them for jobs that are / will be needed.
I expect Pell Grants to be used by more and more people as that will be in only income they can get once unemployment runs out.
A friend of mine, in his late 60s got his masters and is working on his phd due to the lack of possible employment in his field. Lots of student loans, grants etc. He will graduate once SS kicks in. Strange times indeed.
Husband ,an Air Force vet, has been buying ammo and guns for the past forty years. I just thought it was a guy thing because he is a geek, and was an MP while in service.
I think we are in trouble. Notice two signifiant declines, one signifiying the end of Vietnam and associate defense-spending for that war, two the aerospace contraction of early 80s--note we are already way below those troughs. Imagine a wind-down of our two wars and multiplier on industrial contraction. We almost have to have war to keep levels from falling over another precipice.
--bh
Is this just options-ex hijinx or what? On Monday I thought to myself; "how about buy some IYR calls for the heck of it?"
Blackhat-
That sounds like backwards reverse logic. Think of the cost to run the war per soldier, and then the cost to fed the many, many starving people this country is about to have per person. It seems ending the wars and feeding the needy will keep the country about as stable as it feasibly can be.
Regarding America, I found this report troubling released yesterday: Report: Industry May be Unable to Meet Military's Needs
The Aerospace Industries Association issued a report Monday warning that because of consolidation and other fundamental changes in the defense industry, manufacturers may not be able to provide the technologies required to carry out the strategies the Defense Department considers necessary to meet future threats.
"Without considering industrial effects when choosing strategies, DOD might choose strategies that industry is no longer facilitized to support, or those strategic decisions could break industrial capabilities that may be required in the future," Fred Downey, AIA's vice president for national security policy, said at a news conference.
That could reduce strategic options "or leave the U.S. vulnerable to threats," Downey said.
....
The money part!
The study found that three key sectors were "significantly affected" by the strategic choices: tactical aviation, consisting of fighters and attack aircraft; large military aircraft, such as refueling tankers and cargo planes, and ballistic missile defense.
The two aircraft sectors could be weakened by lack of production under one situation and unable to respond to changing needs. A reduced missile defense-design workforce might be unable to respond to a demand for different systems required by a changed strategy.
Minimally affected by the different strategies were unmanned aerial systems; command, control, communications, computers and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems; and strategic nuclear capabilities. Those three were required for all three scenarios.
Four sectors were assessed as "minimally affected" by the strategic choices because they already were in such a degraded condition that they would have difficulty responding to any of the scenarios.
Those were rotary-wing aviation and long-range strike, or bombers, because their research and development capabilities have eroded for lack of new programs; space power, where the industrial base is too weak to respond quickly to new demands, and science and technology, a sector that is depleted due to lack of funding and an aging work force.
Goliath has to spend billions to counter David's outlay of 12 cents, and you'd think that Goliath would have something to show for it?
bh - interesting observation. Would you infer a big chunk of the industrial capacity use is for defense?
Maybe we've been "stimulating" that segment for decades...
.
We also don't seem to be "winding down" in afghanistan...
Blackhat-
I frankly also see a wealth tax coming on savings. It's either taxes or torches and pitchforks for the wealthy.
backwards reverse logic
Yes. But look at the graph.
P n D.
GS/JPM will need to raise some more capital (gotta pay those salaries/bonuses), so they pump it up and then dump it down.
There is no there there.
I don't know. I am neither for or against guns. They are a tool. If a person breaks in my house, I know how to use a knife, and I have enough physical strength to crush someone's windpipe...but that is if they don't get a shot off and incapacitate me...multiple people with automatic weapons (read gangs, which has happened around here), not much of a chance...what do you prepare for? Where do you draw the line? Having an arsenal in the basement doesn't do any good if you can't get to them in time either. That is my problem. Keeping a gun in a place to use for emergencies is a big no, no for me because of my young children. Gun safe doesn't work in a situation where someone kicks your door in at 3am...choices, choices.
ylsp-
Ironic that those very same "conditions" have existed for well over 10 years and they decide to put out a report after the administration that exacerbated those very same problems is no longer accountable for them.
DOD sees that everyone is getting a free ride and they want some too.
Ciao
MS
Now who heard about this report? Contrast with last week where everyone and their mother was talking about that report on bottled vs. tap water and the general conclusion was that "tap water might be safer than bottled water". Yeah, and if any bottled water is contaminated with e-coli; that company is dead, done, gone and buried. So I'm pretty sure they test and re-test and screen and scan. Yet this was reported across the news like this "bottled water might not be safer than tap water".
Stalin, Hitler, Hirohito, and Kim Jong Il must marvel at the effectivness of our American propaganda machine...
.....instead of worrying about your neighbor and his front bedroom window with the M-60 barrel showing, lets worry about our beef, chicken, and pork instead. The SuperBug, MRSA is showing up in it and it WILL kill you.
"MRSA is so common in the United States that it accounts for more than half of all soft-tissue and skin infections in ERs. Organic meat might be less likely to have antibiotic-resistant or disease-causing organisms.......Stock up on nonmeat protein sources such as beans, lentils, and tofu"
Concerns over superbugs in our food supply - Food safety- msnbc.com
Vonbeck,
They make a keypad safe with a spring door you can open in the dark (4 keys, in slots for 4 fingers of one hand) in about 5 seconds.
Get one.
Right, which is why those who are serious in preparing for such battles use gas weapons. Knocks out everybody who is breathing in seconds.
"Stalin, Hitler, Hirohito, and Kim Jong Il must marvel at the effectivness of our American propaganda machine... "
To true...
"tap water might be safer than bottled water"
In the US. Other parts of the world, not so much.
lets worry about our beef, chicken, and pork instead. The SuperBug, MRSA is showing up in it and it WILL kill you.
Or automobiles. Or heart disease. Or the many prosiac factors that end most lives...
JP, now I hadn't heard about the gas weapons. That is a new concept, didn't realize they had a commercial version available for the public. That is interesting...
Thanks.
Vonbeck, I think you missed the sarcasm
They make a keypad safe with a spring door you can open in the dark (4 keys, in slots for 4 fingers of one hand) in about 5 seconds.
Best safe ever made...you would think I own one
just looked at the market..maybe intel could report every couple weeks instead....will be at 16000 in months...
1.5 billion yr over yr revenue loss bewilders me...
Sure I did, but it has got my brain working, and gas masks are cheap...
I possess a gas weapon which can certainly stun and confuse the unsuspecting passerby.
.......future wars or "engagements" will be undertaken mostly by support staff miles away, unmanned armed Predator aircraft, and high-school aged kids in darkened rooms concentrating on "game consoles" 8000 miles from the ongoing missile detonations.
Umm, future?
BSR-
My father in-law went in for a routine knee surgery in 2001 and contracted MRSA from the initial operation. 8 year's (and over 21 operations later) he has two fake knee's, a fake hip, a blown out shoulder (walking with a cane for that period of time) rides around on a scooter and can't even begin to have the life he had prior to that initial operation to just "clean out a bit of scar tissue"....
This was at Sequoia Hospital in Redwood City. After his 7th or 8th operation with the same doctor I gave up trying to convince him to change the Dr. and hospital. His rationale was that his Dr. was the one the SF 49er's used so.......... But he now has a nice shiny little "trophy" for "courage and commitment to his health"...It's shaped like an academy award and sits in his foyer. Each time I visit and see I don't know whether to laugh or cry to myself.
It's very real and you point out.
Ciao
MS
Upcoming Military Robot Could Feed on Dead Bodies:
Upcoming Military Robot Could Feed on Dead Bodies
Our civilization wandered too far from reality, kicked out its own foundations, and now wanders the aether, insane. Its worse than what is typically described here as "stupidity", worse even than "corruption"; it is insanity.
future = just after NOW
future wars will be undertaken mostly by support staff miles away, unmanned armed aircraft,
cluelessly hitting the wrong targets
"cluelessly hitting the wrong targets "............maybe, but they don't argue or bring you to court.
Sorry, I was snarking. I'll try harder to make it obvious next time.
But the ratio of break-ins to armed homes to successfully defensed homes should be an indication that mere firepower is insufficient. And as has been said for over 2000 years: War is the art of misdirection.
WW2: All combatants wore identifiable uniforms
A & I: Only we are required to be identifiable.
We are involved in a high stakes poker game where we have to show our hand to our opponents, but they don't...
they don't argue
the insurgencies in Iraq & Afghanistan grew after the initial "victories"..
maybe the unmanned aircraft don't argue, but somebody else will...
"It's very real [as] you point out."
Sorry to hear about your FIL, MS.....yes, it's downright scary. That's one of the reasons we raise our own beef & dairy.
we have to show our hand to our opponents,
We don't use stealth or camoflauge?
Newbie 101 (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 3:55 pm
Upcoming Military Robot Could Feed on Dead Bodies:
I did not see anything that required a person to be dead first.
Newbie 101 (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 10:55 am
Upcoming Military Robot Could Feed on Dead Bodies:
Upcoming Military Robot Could Feed on Dead Bodies
Our civilization wandered too far from reality, kicked out its own foundations, and now wanders the aether, insane. Its worse than what is typically described here as "stupidity", worse even than "corruption"; it is insanity.
The EATR doesn't care if you're only partially dead, or running away, if you get in its maw... you're dinner. It should be faster though, more of a predator. If it finds enough biomass, it can just fuel itself forever. There is an analogy here, I think, I just can't quite figure it out.
These drones remind me of an old Star Trek episode where future wars are fought vis a vis computers, and casualties as decided by the computer march into incinerators, as per agreement with both warring factions...
Is that what we want?
btw vonbek: God help you if found with precursors.
JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 8:58 am
reply ignore user
Sorry, I was snarking. I'll try harder to make it obvious next time.
But the ratio of break-ins to armed homes to successfully defensed homes should be an indication that mere firepower is insufficient. And as has been said for over 2000 years: War is the art of misdirection.
A large live dog has been proven to be one of the best deterrents.
"Look over yonder, here come the blues
The thirteenth of any time, powered by fools
I can see 'em comin'
Wearing a blue armoured coat
You're sittin' here with your violins
Hittin' wrong notes"
JMH
I'm against domestic violins.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 11:01 am
These drones remind me of an old Star Trek episode where future wars are fought vis a vis computers, and casualties as decided by the computer march into incinerators, as per agreement with both warring factions...
Is that what we want?
JD, when science has the reigns of humanity, pure efficiency and technological innovation determines the course we follow. Efficiency becomes the only moral goal.
Some video-jockey in area 51-adjacent hitting the re-set button after taking down strangers in a strange land far far away is very bothersome.
Boston, epicenter for the next housing bubble?
Boston, epicenter for the next housing bubble? - Boston Real Estate - Boston.com
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/15/2009 - 11:09 am
Some video-jockey in area 51-adjacent hitting the re-set button after taking down strangers in a strange land far far away is very bothersome.
They aren't real people, though, they're foreigners - they look different, they smell funny, and the chain of command told me they're the enemy. Plus, with proper engineering, you don't have to see the deaths at all. Maybe they'll superimpose pornographic imagery to serve as a reward, or jack the brain with a nice dopamine cocktail or even stimulate the pleasure centers of the brain directly.
The only modern weapon we've decided is out of bounds as far as use in warfare, is poisonous gas/chemicals.
Everything else is ok.
I don't think anyone believed me before, but I wasn't lying...forget the predators...we have high altitude floating platforms with cameras and 'weapon' pods....designed for missle defense, don't think they are being used for that now.
btw vonbek: God help you if found with precursors.
It's a long way from piperidine to kolokol anyway. I don't think this is a practical alternative.
"designed for missle defense, don't think they are being used for that now. "
Are you talking about the BBDs? (big black deltas)?
The only modern weapon we've decided is out of bounds as far as use in warfare, is poisonous gas/chemicals.
I think there is a general consensus against bio-weapons, too.
Since this thread jumped a while back I thought some of you might be interested in what Erin Burnett wants in a man. Just the kind of down home girl I want to report on whats it really like on Main Street.
A few snips:
"Hiring a personal chef to prepare meals for the few nights a week I am home would be unforgettable."
"Family is important to me, so round-trip business-class tickets to Australia and New Zealand for my parents would earn you big points in my book."
"Yoga keeps me calm, so I'd be impressed if you thought to send a yoga instructor to my apartment for private sessions"
Schedule-Saving Travel Tips - Men's Health
It's amazing how long of a leash on life Sweater Puppies have.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_a-Su2SAnGYU/Sl2LI0jcl6I/AAAAAAAAKpI/NB0MnAVAuHk/s1600-h/7-7-Russian-roulette.jpg
YouTube - ObamaHandshakeSnubbed
And this is our respected leader.............please!..watch the hands folks.
No, these are small. Sit up in the upper atmosphere..originally supposed to have some kind of chemical laser, but they ditched that and I honestly don't know what they carry now...but the have a fixed area of the sky that they sit in, move around a little bit, but the cameras give it a near earth satellite eye in sky capability. I thought it was some kind of anti-gravity thing before, but it evidently uses conventional aviation science. Anyway, you can use these to make a grid around an area, and blanket the whole area, and take out targets with precision. I don't have a name for them, just called floating platforms...
The consensus against gas/chemicals/bioweapons is something that was constructed by TPTB - they didn't need these weapons themselves, the weapons are sort of sloppy and unpredictable, and they act as equalizers of a sort for poorer states. They weren't banned out of some great ethical commitment. We had plenty of chemical weapons back in the day, just never ended up being much point to us using them.
Gee! Sounds like Regans Star Wars project would have fit right in. The power of intimidation vs, the Apologists.
black dog, too funny!
I like to stay calm and relaxed, too, so I would be impressed if Erin Burnett would STFU.
I'd rather go out with Carol Burnett.
BURN!
Right-wing-shills used to be a dime a dozen, but with inflation up they cost about a plugged-nickel now.
Now this guy is in his 70s...I asked him what it was all for...just said he was ready.
I bet he's been "ready" since he was 20.
Sad.
Sigh, pigged.
They make a keypad safe with a spring door you can open in the dark (4 keys, in slots for 4 fingers of one hand) in about 5 seconds.
My friend did the industrial design on at least one of these units. He will be pleased to know it's making people happy. I had two demonstrations of it - the first when he was showing it off, and the second when a prototype unit unintentionally let go of the latch and launched a beer bottle sailing across the shop. The latter demo sold me on it.
callous.
Cool, I like it a lot, but I wish it was easier to install the batteries.
Overall its a great product that really fits a good niche.