When the still C conspires an armor
And her sullen and aborted
Currency breeds tiny monsters,
True sales are dead.
Awkward interest
And the first mortgage is jettisoned,
Feds furiously pumping
Their stiff green dollars,
And futures bob up
Poise
Delicate
Pause
Consent decree
In mute nostril agony
Carefully refi-ed
And sealed over.
I'm very interested in 'hearing' more anecdotal evidence of retail inventory offered. I noticed it once or twice, but many may help in understanding how the impact evolves.
I'd guess even the medium-sized grocery store across the street from me probably carries 25,000.
Somehow I don't think American life as we know it would end if these guys cut those numbers by a quarter, or even a half.
I love choice as much as the next guy, but if I had to choose between my stores running out of things or having only 75 varieties of potato chips to choose from instead of 150, I know which I'd prefer.
Right. It was confirmed this morning that Cit had backed a Uhaul to the rear door of the Treasury. The stock dipped some when it was found to be the 24' model rather than the 26' Super Mover.
Bashas, one of our oldest food markets in Az has filed chapter 11 BK.
I don't think they will come out the other side. Too many diversifications and too little market share. Sad, but they can't compete with the discouters.
There's a notch in the upward movement of the Inv/Sales Ratio that occurs at about June of '08. Was that the impact of a stimulus of perhaps tax refunds?
I grew up watching a lot of movies from the 30s-50s. I remember watching Treasure of the Sierra Madre and being bored out of my mind, but I recently watched it again, and it is a brilliant movie. I think Bogart is one of my favorite actors now...anyway movie got me to thinking how common "Can you help a fellow American down on his luck" will be again...
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted record earnings as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached all-time highs less than a year after the firm took $10 billion in U.S. rescue funds. Second-quarter net income was $3.44 billion, or $4.93 a share, the New York-based bank said today in a statement. That surpassed the $3.65 per-share average estimate of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and was 65 percent higher than last year’s second quarter.
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- British Airways Plc said it must push through job and pay cuts to survive the recession and is considering a convertible bond sale to boost cash reserves as demand for premium tickets tumbles. Europe’s third-largest airline, in talks with unions about almost 4,000 job cuts, is concerned that business travel may never fully recover from the slump, Chief Executive Officer Willie Walsh said at the annual shareholder meeting in London.
If the price isn't half-off, then the retail seller isn't even being serious. If you see prices cut 35%, tell the salesperson "pffft. i'll be back when you are selling for 50-60% off retail".
I wonder where all the beautiful girls are now working... seems to me like a strip club would be last resort.... of course they made thousands some nights so maybe they actually had other options... either way I bet they are talking about the hay-days (2004-08) for the next decade...
Without the $4500 clunker legislation auto dealers aren't burning inventory so much as swapping inventory newer for older. Pacific port numbers are just not signaling any sort of volume support. Material exports are not hinting at finished goods returning anytime soon. Next up raw materials spot shortages. That'll ripple through the manufacturing sector very quickly as supply pipelines are getting so thin already.
What materials producers don't understand is that modern financial alchemy has gutted the traditional value of companies that make things. They are going to fail left and right for financial reasons not necessarily economic reasons.
i wonder how many airlines will cancel their Dreamliner orders once the plane finally comes online. Seems that the delay has given many broke airlines a reason not to pay the cancellation fees.
Randal Pinkett, the Season 4 winner of "The Apprentice," NBC's hit reality television show featuring Donald Trump, has emerged as the front-runner to become Gov. Jon S. Corzine's running mate in November, a high-ranking state Democratic official said Monday. An announcement that Corzine has selected Pinkett to run for lieutenant governor on the party ticket was expected to coincide with the visit of President Barack Obama to New Jersey Thursday, according to the source, who asked not to be identified.
Bear chit Calvinball. Tells me a deal is nowhere close at hand. Also tells me, if they get away with this, a new era of colonial currencies lie close at hand.
Randal Pinkett, the Season 4 winner of "The Apprentice," NBC's hit reality television show featuring Donald Trump, has emerged as the front-runner to become Gov. Jon S. Corzine's running mate in November"
Never hire an ex-stripper escort. Too much attitude and an aged body. A 22 year old escort is always better than a early 30s ex-stripper turned escort- always.
However, even with the sharp decline in inventories, the inventory to sales ratio has only declined to 1.42 in May - since sales have fallen sharply too. - CR
If you look at the last chart you see a steadily downward sloping curve since the start of the series - approx. 1992. - from about 1.55 in '92 to about 1.25 in '08. That was due to the revolution in supply chain mgmt brought on by application of IT & JIT. This was done in spite of moving a lot of production offshore and far from North American consumption 'hot spots'.
Since mid-08 it has spiked back up to 1.45 and now working back down... the recession & sales collapse.
Note that prior to the recession it looked like the ratio had hit a 'natural bottom' around 1.25... My guess is it will return to that level THEN continue down on trend again. Reason? Producers are shortening the supply chain significantly. The shorter the supply chain the faster the response and the less they have to hold as 'safety stock'.
I am involved in a project to do exactly this right now with a major mfgr. In effect they want their supply chain close to their factories so inventory can be minimized even more. The weakening dollar is going to make this option even more attractive - not only will it take longer to ship in from Asia, it will cost more to do so.
If the suppliers co-locate within close proximity to their OEM customers and the OEMs cut way back on what they inventory [build to order]... so that the only real inventory is raw material [say metal] and finished goods [say on the shelf]... then that ratio can go a lot lower than 1.25. Meaning less made overall but more made in NAFTA Zone that the numbers would suggest.
The federal income tax code is now so mangled that we can probably increase federal revenues with a 0% income tax rate for a majority of Americans. Long before President Barack Obama took office, the bottom 40% of income earners paid no federal income taxes. Because of refundable income tax credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), in 2006 these bottom 40% as a group actually received net payments equal to 3.6% of total income tax revenues, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office data. The actual middle class, the middle 20% of income earners, pay only 4.4% of total federal income tax revenues. That means the bottom 60% together pay less than 1% of income tax revenues.
" dryfly (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 11:00 am
..... it looked like the ratio had hit a 'natural bottom' around 1.25... My guess is it will return to that level THEN continue down on trend again. Reason? Producers are shortening the supply chain significantly. The shorter the supply chain the faster the response and the less they have to hold as 'safety stock'."
Interesting; there was a time when the plan was essentially keep inventories in "the transportation pipeline". Shortening it would effective reduce the available inventory. On the brighter side, reducing the feedback delay to the plant allows tighter control (higher gain) and this allows smaller local inventories. The mathematics of this have been understood since the '30s.
What materials producers don't understand is that modern financial alchemy has gutted the traditional value of companies that make things. They are going to fail left and right for financial reasons not necessarily economic reasons.
Wrong tense... 'are going' implies future event... it is happening now. Everyday I hear of another big industrial supplier blowing up. Most reorg but at a lower level of capacity and with less capability.
However - many of the ones I hear about were hijacked by PE & hedgies and then pumped up with the industrial equivalent of pergraniteel to flip like some OC tract home - all paid for with debt & OPM. Hoocoodanode such a collapse would derail it all?
Never hire an ex-stripper escort. Too much attitude and an aged body.
That's just Beautiful Woman Syndrome. All beautiful women suffer from varying degrees when recognizing that they are not the hottest thing on earth anymore.
The problem (esp with strippers) is that they spent so much time developing skills to manipulate people (strippers maximize money removed from patrons, eg) that they have delayed a whole lot of personal growth.
Lucifer....more humane and rational....that is one of the aspects of the Luciferian cult I have been studying...what is that Tori Amos song, Father Lucifer...always did prefer the drizzle to the rain...
Here's the thing...epic of Gilgamesh..it was Enki who saved mankind from the deluge, not Enlil (king of the gods who is annoyed with all the noise man is making). For the Greeks, Prometheus sides with man against Zeus. There is a tendency for those 'devil worshipers' to be lumped up as evil, but is it really just a case of 'good intentions pave the road to hell'? Was the original sin compassion? You know, did you let the dog(humans) sleep in the bed, and then all hell broke lose because we chewed up the slippers of God, and all discipline had been lost? Makes you wonder. Of course I always get a tickle at trying to explain that Satan was a member of the heavenly court, and Lucifer is an entirely different angel...but alas what do I know.
That was due to the revolution in supply chain mgmt brought on by application of IT & JIT. This was done in spite of moving a lot of production offshore and far from North American consumption 'hot spots'.
Having worked on supply chain projects all my life, the savings brought about by JIT was miniscule compared to offshoring production, except in perishables.
They are going to fail left and right for financial reasons not necessarily economic reasons. - RD
RD, are you questioning Schumpeter's "creative destruction"?
Say it ain't so. - broward
I'm just calling for a different black swan triggering event. In the 30s when things just "stopped" people were left dazed and confused. Bread basket crops rotted while people went hungry having lost their job transporting grain. We analyzed what happened and instituted steps to address the problems. This time were need not fear a 30s type depression. Instead we are getting blindsided by entirely different problems.
Think about it, how much would you lose in a divorce, alimony and childsupport battle. Now divide your potential monthly loss by say 250.. now think what you can buy at 250.. you will be surprised.
" Lucifer (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 11:16 am
cinco-x,
an average woman would have to pay me to care.
Think about it, how much would you lose in a divorce, alimony and childsupport battle. Now divide your potential monthly loss by say 250.. now think what you can buy at 250.. you will be surprised"
LOL. Whenever I get the question, "have you ever paid for sex", I just reply that I'm married, and that I've paid thru the nose
Most men do not realize that you pay for it... one way or the other. Better to pay for a changeable array of hot women who pretend to be nice than an aging woman who acts like a bitch and tries to screw you over.
Having worked on supply chain projects all my life, the savings brought about by JIT was miniscule compared to offshoring production, except in perishables.
My experience is exactly the opposite. Case in point - have APQP conference calls later this week with design team in INDIA... because our domestic producer beat Indian prices delivered here. Domestic producer is in Wisconsin. Labor cost per hour differential is 20X but with labor only 10% of cost and the need to respond to customer demand within days means India costs way too much [requires large domestic inventory to support customer response].
A lot of offshore cost benefit [on paper] was due to organizations NOT considering or even understanding the true logistical cost to deliver & support around the world. If end user is in Asia then make in Asia... if end user is NAFTA Zone make in NAFTA Zone.
Goldman Sachs (GS) has a tin ear. It cannot hear or wishes to ignore the tremendous bad publicity that has come from news that it will pay out record bonuses this year. It will pay those bonuses after taking billions of dollars in government bailout money, which it has paid back, and in the face of a Congress that is looking closely at limiting executive pay. Goldman acts as if it wants to be rebuked by the federal government, shareholders, and the broader public. But, the firm has been the most successful investment bank in the world for years, and it may simply think that its management deserves large bonuses for the quality of work that they do and the returns that they provide. Goldman has poured some more fuel on the fire over compensation. Executives at the financial firm sold $700 million in stock between September and April. According to the FT, “The surge in selling among Goldman partners, at a time when the US government had thrown a lifeline to Wall Street, is likely to draw criticism from lawmakers on Capitol Hill.” That may be the understatement of the year.
Exactly. The smart guys always 'globalized' this way
There's an optimum scale that current production can be built at. I expect energy & commodity prices to shrink the scale. A lot of theory of globalisation assumes certain things like almost zero energy cost, zero latency, no complexity cost.
That's very interesting.
I predicted it about fourteen months ago.
Trends rarely reach their predicted extreme
and as I sit here reading about $126 per barrel oil, I wonder if "global trade" has peaked, too. It's possible that a regional/localized trading meme could take hold. There's probably some way to measure it, memetically, but it needs some thought.
It's also possible that the Internet didn't "equalize" the world so much is it opened a broader pipeline for equalization of differentials, similar to the interaction of railroads and commodities in the 19th century. A rebalancing towards localization might be reflected in information structure, or should be. I can see trends in that direction in the search engine world, a tendencey towards a class hierarchy structure with minimal interaction at the higher and lower boundaries.
Peak oil will be a major force in the next decade and will likely accelerate localization and deccelerate growth of global projects & trade.
I expect a re-settling of the current system into a more regionalized structure, more coupled back to local control, local culture.
He missed the biggest one.. can we go in the same direction as before
Five for '09: Commentary: Lingering questions Wall Street needs to answer by year's end
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- It's time for Wall Street to put up or shut up. With financial Armageddon pretty much off the table, the banks and brokerages left standing have an opportunity to finish the job, clean up the mess and make some needed changes. If successful, Wall Street could be a more profitable and safer place to do business in 2010.
So, as we head into the second half of the year, here is a to-do list that the financial community needs to get cracking on. Answer these questions, and maybe we won't parade half the industry before Congress next year to complain about bonuses. (Actually, we probably will do that to make ourselves feel better anyway.)
How much are toxic assets worth?
Can order be restored to the energy markets?
How will hedge funds be reined in?
What about IPOs and M&A?
Can the 'bailout culture' be rolled back?
Well my wife has promised to still feed me when I am 64...but since I do all the cooking now anyway....makes you wonder? Just kidding...all I can say is that my friends in high school and in college all said I was a fool, and the woman I was seeking did not exist. I found her...she jokes that I called her into existence...I don't know. I don't have a history of compromising though, all I can suggest is you don't leave your heart closed to the possibility that there is an individual of the female persuasion that isn't as you describe. Another good myth there..the difference between Lilith and Eve....jettison all the new age crap associated with Lilith and the original tale is quite enlightening to the problems that plague couples today.
It cannot hear or wishes to ignore the tremendous bad publicity that has come from news that it will pay out record bonuses this year.
(Sigh). Goldman just uses the Wall Street business model that the public just doesn't get. Plowing half the profits into compensation is great for such businesses as racing yachts, mansions that aren't Mc and Ducati motorcycles.
You are making the same assumption as those who calculated the amount of horse droppings in london in 1930 based on figures and growth numbers from 1900 and extrapolating them to 1930.
//Peak oil will be a major force in the next decade and will likely accelerate localization and deccelerate growth of global projects & trade.//
Dryfly,
I'm thinking the US/Mexico border may become more of a factor than the regional JIT supply chain shortening bean counters projected.
I'm working US/Mex border hard... even there the differentials aren't that huge. We will be building a plant in Mexico to support our customer's plant in Mexico [their final assembly site for NAFTA Zone]... they also have more intensive up stream sub-assembly & fab operations inside the US proper - we will support them from our Midwest facility. We were told to be ready to expand the Midwest site significantly more than the Mexican plant... the need is greater domestically.
So who is going to lose out? (1) Domestic mfgrs dying due to automotive industry collapse - we intentionally stayed out of automotive and (2) Asia - the customer is cutting back the buy from Asia due to 'unexpected hidden costs' [hoocoodanode] and logistical hassles.
Also of interest... our Midwest plant can beat the Mexican plant in cost/price... only problem is it isn't close enough to Mexico either... that is why we need two facilities. Rapid response is critical. Days matter.
Sorry if this is a repost as I've been at the grocery:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve bought $7.5 billion in debt maturing in 2011 and 2012 on Tuesday. Dealers offered $14.73 billion to be purchased. The operation is the first of two this week as the Fed continues its efforts to keep a lid on Treasury yields, which are the benchmarks for a broad range of corporate and consumer borrowing rates. At the four previous buybacks in this maturity range, the central bank purchased between $6.9 billion to $7.5 billion, according to RBS Securities.
Women's actions are restricted only by their choices and what they think they can get away with.. Promises, morality, sense of fairness, farsightedness are so uncool.
Women's actions are restricted only by their choices and what they think they can get away with.. Promises, morality, sense of fairness, farsightedness are so uncool.
Are you guys concerned about instability and violence in Mexico, or are you able to effectively insulate your business and employees? My fathers side of the family is in the shipping business (dry bulk frieghters), and they stopped using shipyards in Pakistan for refit work recently due to instability. Have some interesting stories about the recent run up in and Chinese stockpiling, if you are interested.
You are making the same assumption as those who calculated the amount of horse droppings in london in 1930 based on figures and growth numbers from 1900 and extrapolating them to 1930.
Oil is just component of the mix, it will be useful for a long time and I don't agree with Dawg, I don't see the price going back down again.
Globalization was always a foolish goal.
It's built on top of temporary pricing differences.
Are you guys concerned about instability and violence in Mexico, or are you able to effectively insulate your business and employees? My fathers side of the family is in the shipping business (dry bulk frieghters), and they stopped using shipyards in Pakistan for refit work recently due to instability. Have some interesting stories about the recent run up in and Chinese stockpiling, if you are interested.
I am interested in ANYTHING Chinese... they are the 900 lb gorilla and at times a rather awkward unruly one at that.
As for Mexican stability - yes we are concerned - and are considering site locations accordingly. When down there recently [NE Mexico along the border & also Monterrey] we noticed the border was armed to the teeth... yet it seemed completely 'demilitarized' in Monterrey. A world of difference between the two. We are leaning on placing our facility in Monterrey as a result [Monterrey is really a nice town as far as industrial cities go - hell I'd move there... border cities on EITHER SIDE - US or Mexico - suck.
This inventory report jives pretty well with the retails sales. It looks like the big driver of sales this month (excluding gas) was all the dealers cut loose in May/June liquidating. There is one down the road from me. Went from a full, 2 acre lot to scraps over the past month. I think a public auction is scheduled in August for the tools and spare parts inventory. Ditto for the GM dealer in downtown Saratoga that shuttered last month.
Lucifer then that is a result of how men raised them and how the perceived their mothers. Since my wife did not have a father, or any father figures she could accept and her mother was a sad excuse for a woman, she rejected the typical mental box women are placed in/place themselves in. I have rejected a lot of crap that goes with 'being a man' as well. People can escape the 'normal'...that is why I brought up Lilith...if you go into a relationship without the hubris of trying to figure out who is in charge, then you don't have to worry about your 'slave' planning on revolt at a later date. This is true for both sides. Why I said before, ego is the biggest block in a relationship. Most people see courtship as a competition and can't leave the ego behind...but if you can get past it (both sides) something special comes together. Another movie, old Nelson Eddy/Jeanette MacDonald musical, Naughty Marietta...there is a scene where the colonial men are waiting for the boat full of brides to be...there is a big portly man who goes and finds a big portly women...checks her muscles...because he isn't looking for beauty or refinement.. but someone he can build a life with in a new world..example stayed with me. Relationships are about what you put in them. As a very self-centered individual myself, it took me a long time to fully understand this.
dry, i'm not really arguing against you but you may be involved in different sectors than me. My experience is exactly the same as what you described in your 10:10 post. The PE and hedgies would rather offshore than invest in the long-term health of the companies.
My experiece in the first 15 years was in manu and that was the exact case. The last 10 have been in logistics and when I started our customer base covered most sectors; the only growth has been in perishables and far too many customers in other sectors have either been swallowed up or closed up. Perishables are now 80% of our business. When I started in logistics the expectation was growth around the Mexican border but it never happened and the west coast ports had more opportunities.
I think you are right that JIT has supply chain value and we expect multi-sector growth over time but we were certainly wrong before in not anticipating the other events that shoved supply chain projects onto the shelf. The open question in my mind is whether the home-market growth will be organic - i.e. small business arising and growing from home-market opportunity (my company's bread and butter) - or government-sponsored which tends to favor larger players (harder for us to get a foot in the door).
Don't always want local - you probably don't want me to put a foundry in your neighborhood... but having one of decent scale so as to be globally competitive yet close enough so you can get parts when you need them [but not clattering all night in your back yard] is a benefit.
There are good reasons to zone residential, commercial and industrial. I've been in industries where there was no way I could function and still be a 'good neighbor'... best to site those facilities at a good stand off.
Roubini at it again: Brown Manure, Not Green Shoots - Forbes.com
Added:
"There are also signs that there may be forces leading to a double-dip recession sometime toward the second half of next year or toward 2011. If oil prices rise too much, too fast, too soon, that's going to have a negative effect on trade and real disposable income in oil-importing countries (U.S., Europe, Japan, China, etc.)."
it was once too taboo to talk about, but not anymore. In the new CNBC original production "Porn: Business of Pleasure" nothing is off limits when it comes to the controversial multi-billion dollar industry that aims to please but has been known to offend.
dryfly (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 8:49 am
Lesson: get nimble, go local young man.
There, I fixed it.
Don't always want local - you probably don't want me to put a foundry in your neighborhood... but having one of decent scale so as to be globally competitive yet close enough so you can get parts when you need them [but not clattering all night in your back yard] is a benefit.
There are good reasons to zone residential, commercial and industrial. I've been in industries where there was no way I could function and still be a 'good neighbor'... best to site those facilities at a good stand off.
My hero. One of the most idiotic planner fads in decades could only gain traction because of the bubble; mixed use. The live/work model was a disaster from the start and we'll be paying for it for decades to come.
I think you are right that JIT has supply chain value and we expect multi-sector growth over time but we were certainly wrong before in not anticipating the other events that shoved supply chain projects onto the shelf. The open question in my mind is whether the home-market growth will be organic - i.e. small business arising and growing from home-market opportunity (my company's bread and butter) - or government-sponsored which tends to favor larger players (harder for us to get a foot in the door).
My guess is mostly organic small business growth... gov't sponsored [subsidized] will go away in time [they always have once pols & voters lose interest].
But we are early in the cycle - the company I work with now is just beginning to stick its head out of the shell [turtle-like analogy] and look around for opportunity. Small cos need to be early or they miss out but it is still really really early.
Dryfly:
Like I said, my father's cousins are all in the shipping business. He turned his back on that life to be a physicist, BTW. Some work for the big Greek shipping houses, and a couple own their own shipping company. All these companies, which account for much of global trade, are private and family owned, so getting good data is hard. My Dad just got back from Greece, and he spent the bulk of his time with the guys who own the shipping company. Most of their business is shipping dry bulk agricultural commodities (soy, wheat, etc) from Brazil/Argentina to Japan/China/Korea. Prices in their sector have recently stabilized, but not because shipping volumes are up. The Chinese are using freighters to stockpile stuff off the coast. Apparently, it is cheaper that warehousing the stuff ashore. This has the effect of taking capacity off line. Also, most shipping companies are expanding their fleets. There is a huge amount of new capacity coming on line soon. Everyone knows this is unsustainable, but everyone will keep dancing until the music stops (ala Citibank).
"Employees of the engine parts maker New Fabris have rigged up a series of gas canisters inside a factory workshop which they say will be detonated on July 31 if the two carmakers fail to pay €30,000 to each of the 366 workers facing unemployment."
it was once too taboo to talk about, but not anymore. In the new CNBC original production "Porn: Business of Pleasure""
Hey, porn enabled the Internet, and was it's primary source of income and a driver for higher BWs. Also true for the VCR rental business 20-25 years ago. Big driver of profits for some cable companies too. Maybe porn will pull us out of this economic mess as well.........
"it'll take a year until we get inventories just right and retailers throw their hands up in the air (target) or declare bk (ie Borders Books) "
Can't wait for Borders to go down. Sad excuse for a bookstore, sustained and expanded only by sheer size and easy access to other peoples' money. They tried the usual tactic and plunked down a large outlet right between two big local independents. But the independents are still hanging in there -- they outlasted a SuperCrown before this -- because this is a reading community with specific interests, and they stock for it. All Borders' stocking decisions are made 2000 miles away.
I think the "decline of the mom 'n pop" or small local chains will stop as national regional operators lose their supply of cheap steroids (easy access to expansion loans).
Is the duration of the mouseovers for glossary terms browser dependent or is it specified by the Koopster? The current allotment is insufficient to read some of the longer entries.
There are good reasons to zone residential, commercial and industrial.
I never gave this any thought before but it's another refutation of pure libertarian theory. In the most abstract sense, zoning is a function of minimizing transaction costs by segregating and centralizing behavior. That's an interesting example.
"I think the "decline of the mom 'n pop" or small local chains will stop as national regional operators lose their supply of cheap steroids (easy access to expansion loans)."
But will the M&Ps ever come back?
That would be nice. I am so very sick of cookie-cutter retail and restaurants.
And I agree - Borders has been a lame bookstore as far back as I can remember.
Only about 30% of Borders floor space has actual books. The rest is cafe, DVDs and floor displays. Terrible selection. I can't wait for that steaming pile of crap to liquidate. We could use that space for better uses, like an empty lot, or a crack house.
My FIL, who's farm has been in the family over 200 years, will be interested to know this.
There are some occupations that are appropriate for local live/work - most today are not. Or at best need to be scrutinized before knee jerk decisions either way are made.
Even farming - you want a huge hog operation next to you? On a site of about 1000 acres one of these can produce as much manure as city w/ 30,000 residents. They will have their own sewer plant. You want to live next to one of those even IF state of the art and no effluent escapes the 'plant'?
I don't. Yet with 6 billion people on the planet those types of 'systems' are increasingly going to be used because if designed right are actually LESS polluting than 1000 farms with 100 hogs each [similar overall capacity].
Not arguing with you just saying it isn't 200 years ago.
Wow, you stay away a couple of days and the place goes male chauvinist pig. Talk about call girls and the losses of marriage makes me think some of the men here have lost a lot of money and see that as a loss of manhood. Your pecker does not have to rise and fall in unison with your wallet.
broward, if you are talking about the normal hunter/gather nesting meme...there is truth to that...but it is overstated. Again, I am talking about individuals too, not whole segments of society...I am not arguing that men and women are 'equal' biologically and that hormones don't play a role in behavior... conditioning has its role too however. I will give you a further example. My wife is a computer geek...she is the only woman at her office that is part of the 'men's club'. She gets invited to the lunches, while all the other women eat at the office. She talks sports, computer games, and other topics that are generally considered man talk...her boss actually said he wished more 'women' were like her, because there is a divide. In terms of body chemistry, my wife has a weird one, so do I... might be the reason, but I still think it has more to do with how we were raised and what we rejected.
Serioulsly, people mess things up, people kill their relationships, like alcoholics, drug addicts... if a dvd or mag creates a mess then so can herbie the love bug and Highlights...
and as far as the actors and actresses that get messed up , so did the kids from different strokes....
A lot of guys have gone thru divorce and seen women take all the assets and half their income in perpetuity. Divorce law is still heavily skewed towards women.
" Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:04 pm
...........My wife is a computer geek...she is the only woman at her office that is part of the 'men's club'. She gets invited to the lunches, while all the other women eat at the office. She talks sports, computer games, and other topics that are generally considered man talk...her boss actually said he wished more 'women' were like her,"
My FIL, who's farm has been in the family over 200 years, will be interested to know this.
There are some occupations that are appropriate for local live/work - most today are not. Or at best need to be scrutinized before knee jerk decisions either way are made.
Agreed. I was pointing out the silliness of 1. Absolutist statements, and 2. Live/Work models have been around since the dawn of time. (Farming, prostitution, old-fashioned mom&pop retail (who lived above the store), nudist hackers, etc.) The separation of these two is a recent development.
I never gave this any thought before but it's another refutation of pure libertarian theory. In the most abstract sense, zoning is a function of minimizing transaction costs by segregating and centralizing behavior. That's an interesting example.
Broward - I was a libertarian BEFORE I became a chemical engineer... after I became a chem e and discovered what I could make [and how I could fuck it up] that was when I left the libertarian camp. Zoning & preemptive regulation wrt execution of a viable libertarian policy platform convinced me libertarianism belongs on the chalk boards and in the heads of egghead think tanks only. Nice concept & great ideals - now lets move on to something actionable that can actually get us somewhat closer to those ideals IN PRACTICE.
JP,
Thanks again for turning me on to that personality test yesterday.
Mrs. Gnome and I had an interesting conversation last night about our respective personalities.
I was in the Stanford Shopping Center on Saturday; it was busy and the parking lot was pretty full. But while walking through Bloomingdales and Macys it was clear that the inventory on the shelves was very thin.
Both the quantity and variety of products were noticeably low.
I was a libertarian BEFORE I became a chemical engineer..
My experience is that most Randians don't have a quantifiation background. They work in jobs withouth a lot of coordination so they don't understand costs of standardization and differentiation. They don't grasp that a pure Libertarian world blows up a LOT of stuff.
Mrs. Gnome and I had an interesting conversation last night about our respective personalities.
BTW, that's what I think the test is great for -- starting discussions like that. Personalities are too complicated to measure completely with 4 variables obviously, but it causes good discussions and bridges to be built across different personalities.
Anyway, I gotta do the dryfly thing and turn off CR. Biz awaits. Happy Glooming (ht to LLiz)!
"There are some occupations that are appropriate for local live/work - most today are not. Or at best need to be scrutinized before knee jerk decisions either way are made."
Very true. "Live-Work" is very big in my college town -- there's a 20-acre live-work project stalled out by the economy about a block away from here -- but they forsee live/work as knowledge-worker heaven. Designers and programmers and marketers and such living in or near their studios.
Since actual industry was gutted here over the last 20 years, and this is a desirable town to live in, the upper class of locals want work for their educated spawn (and suitable local college grads) here in town instead of them having to leave -- and of course they're all "knowledge workers," nothing icky and polluting around here, thank you. Although there's a surfboard mfg outfit the down the street that'll about knock you out with the fumes, that somehow gets a pass.
That said, since I've lived the last 30 years in fairly dense communities, any new retail built in the central area of town without apartments on top is obscene. And to be fair, they're been pretty good about that sort of thing around here since the quake.
(Edit -- the Borders I was snarking about earlier is on the ground floor of a four-story post-quake building with two floors of offices and one floor of penthouse apartments above. It was a real popular building during the dotcom boom. But it wasn't specifically built as live-work, even though dot-commers worked in it and lived on the top floor; just with the right mix of functions for that area and time (downtown).
" dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:08 pm
I never gave this any thought before but it's another refutation of pure libertarian theory. In the most abstract sense, zoning is a function of minimizing transaction costs by segregating and centralizing behavior. That's an interesting example.
Broward - I was a libertarian BEFORE I became a chemical engineer... after I became a chem e and discovered what I could make [and how I could fuck it up] that was when I left the libertarian camp. Zoning & preemptive regulation wrt execution of a viable libertarian policy platform convinced me libertarianism belongs on the chalk boards and in the heads of egghead think tanks only. Nice concept & great ideals - now lets move on to something actionable that can actually get us somewhat closer to those ideals IN PRACTICE."
Political Compass identifies me as having Libertarian leanings, and I think it's possible to rationalize zoning with Libertarianism, at least as I understand it. Laws should be made to protect us from each other, not from ourselves, and preventing your neighbor from putting a smelting plant in his backyard, less than 100 feet from your deck sounds like protecting you from others. A greater degree of financial regulation qualifies as well, as does prohibiting snake oil salesmen.
The separation of these two is a recent development.
And that recent development is cheap personal transport. Prior to that, "zoning" meant separation of the classes. It still does, but no one wants to admit it.
" broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:15 pm
I was a libertarian BEFORE I became a chemical engineer..
My experience is that most Randians don't have a quantifiation background. They work in jobs withouth a lot of coordination so they don't understand costs of standardization and differentiation. They don't grasp that a pure Libertarian world blows up a LOT of stuff."
Reducing things to the absurd and beyond is generally a bad idea, except in humor, politics, and the like.
Most Libertarians I have met worked in secure, subsidized industries (academia and government). I stopped being a Libertarian when I visited Saipan, an Island north of Guam with no government to speak off. Nasty, brutish and short describe life up there.
The Randians, i.e. Anarcho-Capitalists believe that even laws create market anomalies, ergo they are the source of all our woe.
kind of like Original Sin.
I imagine those homeless people, made homeless at least in part by the government sending their jobs overseas, are wondering where is the gratitude for all the taxes paid over the last few decades.
CIT shorts covering like MAD! 8 cents baby! Take that bears!
Extend and Lie -
"Rep. Gary Miller, R-Diamond Bar (Los Angeles County), has taken up the cause pushed by the National Association of Realtors, National Association of Mortgage Brokers and other organizations, co-introducing legislation that would halt the changes for 18 months."
Thanks for that link. I'm going to send it on to my 30 year old mechanical engineer daughter who has had to learn how to work with a bunch of "old, white guys" like me.
picosec (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 9:11 am
reply ignore user
I was in the Stanford Shopping Center on Saturday; it was busy and the parking lot was pretty full. But while walking through Bloomingdales and Macys it was clear that the inventory on the shelves was very thin.
Both the quantity and variety of products were noticeably low.
I was also there a few weeks ago and amazed by what percentage of folks shopping there now are Asian, I'd say atleast 70%. The only shops that appear to be doing well are ones that Asians like ie. Louis Vuitton. Or ones with major sales. Of course the Apple store was still packed.
"Des Moines pledges to move against homeless camps"
I see from the article they estimate 1000-1500 homeless in the Des Moines area. Fat chance. Probably twice that many out on the street and in the fields -- they don't like being counted, and having rural areas near town is a big attraction for campers. And there are probably more living in cars and vans who move around nightly between industrial areas. I speak from experience.
And certainly not counting the ones who are couch-surfing with friends, but have no fixed home, no money, and no prospects.
"Originally the tower was meant to be the centerpiece of an entire Goldman Sachs campus at Exchange Place, which was to include a training center, a university, and a large hotel complex. Many of the company's Manhattan-based equity traders refused to move away from Wall Street, delaying the occupation of the building's top 13 floors, which until early 2008, have remained vacant."
"If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite."
William Blake
I wanna tell you 'bout Goldman Sachs and the Big Beat
Comes out of the Wall*Street swamps
Cool and slow with plenty of precision
With a back beat narrow and hard to master
Some call it heavenly in it's brilliance
Others, mean and ruthful of the American dream
I love the fiends that have gathered together on this thin graft
They have constructed pyramids in honor of them escaping
This is the land where the Profits died
The traders in the casino rightly figured
They are saying, "Forget wrong & right".
Live it up with forests of bonuses
Out here on the perimeter there are no losses
Out here we get loans - immaculate."
Listen to this, and I'll tell you 'bout the heartache
I'll tell you 'bout the heartache and the loss of thought
I'll tell you 'bout the hopeless fight
The meager food for souls forgot
I'll tell you 'bout the company without a soul
I'll tell you this
No eternal reward will forgive them now for wasting the pawns
I'll tell you 'bout Goldman Sachs and the Big Beat
Soft drivin', slow and mad, like some new language
Now, listen to this, and I'll tell you 'bout Goldman
I'll tell you 'bout the Goldman that I know
I'll tell you 'bout the hopeless fight
Wondering about the American dream
Tell you 'bout the company without a soul
Dryfly: With "just in time" inventory, who holds the buffer stocks? Who bears the cost if the supply room is bare so the factory has to close for want of a part or the merchant loses a sale for want of an item?
Previously, you have written about how the supply chain is under severe financial stress and might not have the resources to fund the ramp-up of production, if demand returns.
When does JIT inventory morph from being prudent working capital management to being penny-wise, pound-foolish suicide?
"
mhdoc (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:27 pm
Thanks for that link. I'm going to send it on to my 30 year old mechanical engineer daughter who has had to learn how to work with a bunch of "old, white guys" like me."
Poor kid- I always feel bad for the girls who come to work in engineering, except for the bitchy ones with an axe to grind. I don't care what they say, if a guy acted like that he'd get his butt kicked.
We were contacted by the film's producers and asked to profile their work. I receive film-video submissions daily, and this is the most impressive piece I've ever seen: a brand new, short film by Lagan Sebert and Harry Hanbury of The American News Project starring Ron Paul, Wlliam Greider, Dennis Kucinich, Darrell Issa and Alan Grayson on HR 1207.
A lot of guys have gone thru divorce and seen women take all the assets and half their income in perpetuity. Divorce law is still heavily skewed towards women.
Severely OT:
My favorite divorce cases have been where the wife/mother takes a lesbian lover, files for divorce because of irreconcilable differences, and is awarded 55+% of the marital assets plus alimony and child support. It is even better when the lover was met through one of their children's social activities such as kid sports. Husband can't prove that there is adultery going on, and since most states don't recognize gay marriage or gay civil unions, the law cannot treat these sort of relationships with any bias unless properly documented or properly portrayed. (Also, there is quite a pride factor that seems to affect men in these cases. Men can hit other men if they are fooling around with his wife. I have yet to hear of a man who fought with a woman for stealing his woman.)
A woman can travel the country with a female friend, share hotel rooms--or even beds, and hang out with said friend, and it rarely raises any suspicions if done discretely. A man can never do these things without raising eyebrows even if completely platonic--if that is possible.
Family Law is only going to get more "exotic" as the family continues its wayward evolution too.
" yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:41 pm
Severely OT:
My favorite divorce cases have been where the wife/mother takes a lesbian lover, files for divorce because of irreconcilable differences, and is awarded 55+% of the marital assets plus alimony and child support. It is even better when the lover was met through one of their children's social activities such as kid sports. Husband can't prove that there is adultery going on, and since most states don't recognize gay marriage or gay civil unions, the law cannot treat these sort of relationships with any bias unless properly documented or properly portrayed. (Also, there is quite a pride factor that seems to affect men in these cases. Men can hit other men if they are fooling around with his wife. I have yet to hear of a man who fought with a woman for stealing his woman.)"
No fault divorce is often the rule, so even adultery doesn't play into it, at least not here in MA. Alienation-of-affection is probably the best route, and you might recoup some of the money, etc. you lose on the other half of the equation.
No fault divorce is often the rule, so even adultery doesn't play into it, at least not here in MA. Alienation-of-affection is probably the best route, and you might recoup some of the money, etc. you lose on the other half of the equation.
Down here, we have no fault too, but when splitting up assets, it starts in the 50%/50% area and is moved on a sliding scale depending on negotiations, earnings, financial faults (e.g. willingly under-employed), etc. Adultery isn't treated as a "fault" per se, but it can influence what each side will and will not accept.
Adultery may be "Blah", but being the wronged spouse owning a video recording of the "guilty" spouse participating in a multi-generational 3-some is still treated as "Not Blah". Also, when there are children involved, the "Blah" factor changes depending on the sins v. the children (age, gender, etc.)
Maybe times are starting to change a little. She has been blessed with a really supportive manager and the guys in the metal shops are starting to figure out she ALWAYS knows what she is talking about and almost never makes mistakes.
Since most issues arise from the choice between "Make it fit" vs "Recheck the computer models" they tend to look dumb on a regular basis.
Yeah!, come on, come on, come on, come on
Now TARP me, baby
Cant you see that I am not afraid?
What was that promise that Ben made?
Why won't you tell me what Tim said?
What was that promise that you made?
Now, I'm gonna Arb you, till the heavens stop the rain
I'm gonna Arb you
Till the stars fall from the SPY for you and I
Come on, come on, come on, come on
Now TARP me, baby
Cant you see that I am not afraid?
What was that promise that Ben made?
Why won't you tell me what Tim said?
What was that promise that you made?
Im gonna Arb you, till the heavens stop the rain
Im gonna Arb you
Till the stars fall from the SPY for you and I
Im gonna Arb you, till the heavens stop the rain
Im gonna Arb you
Till the stars fall from the SPY for you and I
My friend is going thru a messy divorce. He just got out of the Navy and is refusing to look for a job until the divorce settles. That way, his income is skewed down when the alimony is calculated. Hard to get a lot from income derived from unemployment benefits.
I consider myself more of a libertarian today, not because I don't want government and law, but only because I think perhaps the government has gone a bit too far in trying to control things it doesn't have the ability to control.
I'd like to think if the government were letting people starve on the streets left and right I'd have the sense to be more of a modern liberal.
I think a rational person defines their political positions relative to the current status quo.
(BTW, I'm assuming above that the people aren't starving because they deserve to.)
Dryfly: With "just in time" inventory, who holds the buffer stocks? Who bears the cost if the supply room is bare so the factory has to close for want of a part or the merchant loses a sale for want of an item?
Previously, you have written about how the supply chain is under severe financial stress and might not have the resources to fund the ramp-up of production, if demand returns.
When does JIT inventory morph from being prudent working capital management to being penny-wise, pound-foolish suicide?
Really good questions - those are the heart of the issues...
1) In JIT who holds inventory? Ideally inventory isn't created... a demand for consumption is 'recognized' and a unit of consumption is then simultaneously created for said demand. In service industry this is EXACTLY how it is done [you create a haircut when you sit down in front of a barber - they can't be inventoried].
What is inventoried in such a situation is CAPACITY... you either have excess capacity OR accept lost sales or wait for capacity to open up. It is a trade off.
In practice inventory is kept at both the supplier & the customer... the art is to minimize inventory as much as is practically possible, discuss both estimate of demand & capacity to meet it and to try to balance the risks. We do this everyday - some days we win, some days we lose.
In general the more generic the product the lower the risk to inventory... special make to order applications are very high risk to inventory. Most stuff is somewhere in between.
2) Is the current capacity of the supply chain healthy enough to weather this down turn? Is there sufficient healthy capacity to manage the eventual recovery. Don't know. I personally doubt it. I think price inflation will 'fund' and at the same time ration the recovery. Price rationing has always damped recoveries though so nothing new there. The question is how severe has the damage been - we won't know until the up tick.
" yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:51 pm
Down here, we have no fault too, but when splitting up assets, it starts in the 50%/50% area and is moved on a sliding scale depending on negotiations, earnings, financial faults (e.g. willingly under-employed), etc. Adultery isn't treated as a "fault" per se, but it can influence what each side will and will not accept."
Ours starts out like that, but the real screwing begins under the guise of "taking into consideration the interests of the child". OTOH, guys do sometimes get the kids, but if it's court mandated, it's usually due to a substance abuse problem or like.
Just curious; where is "down here"?
My take on divorce is its all yours honey....take care now, make it work.
But I am happily married 25 years, notice how I said happy, ya we tend to think at times we are not the normal ones, then a friend will stop by who is divorced ( many ) and we look at each other and say Na we are the normal ones.
"
shill (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 1:02 pm
My take on divorce is its all yours honey....take care now, make it work.
But I am happily married 25 years, notice how I said happy, ya we tend to think at times we are not the normal ones, then a friend will stop by who is divorced ( many ) and we look at each other and say Na we are the normal ones.
Living Debt free and not giving a shit helps."
Hmmm....and here I thought the trick was anti-depressants and Internet porn
BTW, 23 years for me-
Gov't should recognize "civil unions" with certain rights and responsibilities for all couples -- the same that marrieds have now. Churches can "marry you in the eyes of God;" but that's outside the civil equation.
It's stupid that a certain type of contract honored by society -- a particular package of rights and responsibilities -- can only be exercised between a man and a woman. From a legal standpoint, i suspect that many lawyers would agree.
Computers tend to be job killers in most fields. Blockbuster (50k employees) begets NetFlix (5000 employees) which begets Redbox (1900 employees for it and its parent company Coinstar)
When they don't kill your job they force you to compete with people who are willing/able to work for much less than you.
And as for Amazon and iTunes -- well how many bookstore and record store jobs were lost because of them?
it'll take a year until we get inventories just right and retailers throw their hands up in the air (target) or declare bk (ie Borders Books)
In case there's someone who hasn't seen it, powerful piece on ZH:
Zero Hedge: The Modern Day Reverse Alchemists
I suppose this would apply to any asset-based ETF on something that trades through COMEX.
What's in your ETF?
Very interesting article linked on this site, in case you miss it:
Wells Fargo sells subprime duds to Irvine investor - Mortgage Insider : The Orange County Register
"National Mortgage News reports Wells Fargo recently sold $600 million in distressed subprime loans to Irvine-based Arch Bay Capital."
Yeah but Geithner said the recession is ending
So put that in your pipe and smoke it
Geithner: Recession easing, U.S. on the mend - Economy at a Crossroads- msnbc.com
pour a 40 on the concrete for "Just In Time".......
Well you're just in time to celebrate the thing you didn't calculate
You're just in time to be too late and I won't be home no more
Who will Orwell's Fargo unload those Pay Option ARMs to?
Oh wait, I had to ask...
"Oh wait, I had to ask..."
When you raise your hand, you go to the front of the line....
Yep, I agree Tim and once on the bottom it will stay as no one buys and very few have jobs.
Everything is on schedule, please move along. Uncle miltons new Amerika.
Will the reduction in inventories express as more spare stocking of stores?
Ulta has some pretty bare shelves. Stock not as deep, things spread out. Just what I have been seeing there for the last couple of months.
Bourse Latitudes
When the still C conspires an armor
And her sullen and aborted
Currency breeds tiny monsters,
True sales are dead.
Awkward interest
And the first mortgage is jettisoned,
Feds furiously pumping
Their stiff green dollars,
And futures bob up
Poise
Delicate
Pause
Consent decree
In mute nostril agony
Carefully refi-ed
And sealed over.
the Fed should start acquiring these inventories....you know....ahead of the recovery coming this fall...
once the recovery comes, it can then turn around and sell everything back to the retailers and make a killing.....right?
The bloom is off the rose for CTI.
GS is moving up.
The dice is still rolling at the casino.
This doesn't look very green shooty. Not very green shooty at all.
I'm very interested in 'hearing' more anecdotal evidence of retail inventory offered. I noticed it once or twice, but many may help in understanding how the impact evolves.
" Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 10:25 am
What's in your ETF?"
Electronic Traded Fund or Estimated Time to Fail?
I remember the days when the retailer used to offer to extend ME the credit instead of vice-versa.
We'll know this is over when casinos are back en vogue.... Ala LVS, WYNN & MGM
Will the reduction in inventories express as more spare stocking of stores?
Consider: the average Wal-Mart Supercenter carries over one hundred thousand different SKUs: RetailingWorks | Why Sell to Walmart
I'd guess even the medium-sized grocery store across the street from me probably carries 25,000.
Somehow I don't think American life as we know it would end if these guys cut those numbers by a quarter, or even a half.
I love choice as much as the next guy, but if I had to choose between my stores running out of things or having only 75 varieties of potato chips to choose from instead of 150, I know which I'd prefer.
The bloom is off the rose for CTI.
Right. It was confirmed this morning that Cit had backed a Uhaul to the rear door of the Treasury. The stock dipped some when it was found to be the 24' model rather than the 26' Super Mover.
You know that it would be untrue
You know that I would be a liar
If I was to say to you
"Those MBSs have a buyer"
Bashas, one of our oldest food markets in Az has filed chapter 11 BK.
I don't think they will come out the other side. Too many diversifications and too little market share. Sad, but they can't compete with the discouters.
Thanks rb
that explains it. Stingy Fed.
There's a notch in the upward movement of the Inv/Sales Ratio that occurs at about June of '08. Was that the impact of a stimulus of perhaps tax refunds?
I think it is the seasonally hedonic impact of more summery summers. One SPF 40 lotion case counts as two SPF 20 cases from last year.
I grew up watching a lot of movies from the 30s-50s. I remember watching Treasure of the Sierra Madre and being bored out of my mind, but I recently watched it again, and it is a brilliant movie. I think Bogart is one of my favorite actors now...anyway movie got me to thinking how common "Can you help a fellow American down on his luck" will be again...
nades, we also need the strip club revenue report to know when the economy is back on track.
Goldman Sachs Posts Record Profit, Beating Estimates (Update2)
Goldman Sachs Posts Record Profit, Beating Estimates (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
By Christine Harper
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted record earnings as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached all-time highs less than a year after the firm took $10 billion in U.S. rescue funds. Second-quarter net income was $3.44 billion, or $4.93 a share, the New York-based bank said today in a statement. That surpassed the $3.65 per-share average estimate of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and was 65 percent higher than last year’s second quarter.
British Airways Says Job Cuts Vital, May Sell Bonds (Update1)
British Airways Says Job Cuts Vital, May Sell Bonds (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
By Steve Rothwell
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- British Airways Plc said it must push through job and pay cuts to survive the recession and is considering a convertible bond sale to boost cash reserves as demand for premium tickets tumbles. Europe’s third-largest airline, in talks with unions about almost 4,000 job cuts, is concerned that business travel may never fully recover from the slump, Chief Executive Officer Willie Walsh said at the annual shareholder meeting in London.
If the price isn't half-off, then the retail seller isn't even being serious. If you see prices cut 35%, tell the salesperson "pffft. i'll be back when you are selling for 50-60% off retail".
It's a buyer's market: take advantage of it.
I wonder where all the beautiful girls are now working... seems to me like a strip club would be last resort.... of course they made thousands some nights so maybe they actually had other options... either way I bet they are talking about the hay-days (2004-08) for the next decade...
Without the $4500 clunker legislation auto dealers aren't burning inventory so much as swapping inventory newer for older. Pacific port numbers are just not signaling any sort of volume support. Material exports are not hinting at finished goods returning anytime soon. Next up raw materials spot shortages. That'll ripple through the manufacturing sector very quickly as supply pipelines are getting so thin already.
What materials producers don't understand is that modern financial alchemy has gutted the traditional value of companies that make things. They are going to fail left and right for financial reasons not necessarily economic reasons.
That's why this time is different.
"CIT would have never have been in this trouble if the Federal Reserve had gotten the securitization market working again," Forbes told "Squawk Box."
Fed to Blame for CIT's Liquidity Problems: Forbes - CNBC
Well, no wonder they have to be bailed out, The Fed broke it, they have to buy it. LOL
in the old days.. now they will accept what the market will pay them.
//of course they made thousands some nights so maybe they actually had other options//
i wonder how many airlines will cancel their Dreamliner orders once the plane finally comes online. Seems that the delay has given many broke airlines a reason not to pay the cancellation fees.
No the strip club is not the last resort. There are still rungs on that ladder to descend.
Corzine set to pick candidate for lieutenant governor
APP.com | Monmouth and Ocean counties | Asbury Park Press
BY BOB JORDAN • FREEHOLD BUREAU • JULY 13, 2009
Randal Pinkett, the Season 4 winner of "The Apprentice," NBC's hit reality television show featuring Donald Trump, has emerged as the front-runner to become Gov. Jon S. Corzine's running mate in November, a high-ranking state Democratic official said Monday. An announcement that Corzine has selected Pinkett to run for lieutenant governor on the party ticket was expected to coincide with the visit of President Barack Obama to New Jersey Thursday, according to the source, who asked not to be identified.
speaking of airlines and safety:
We're sorry, you've encountered an error
Oh, jeez:
Bill would allow IOUs to be used to pay state - California - SignOnSanDiego.com
Bear chit Calvinball. Tells me a deal is nowhere close at hand. Also tells me, if they get away with this, a new era of colonial currencies lie close at hand.
" Lucifer (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 10:58 am
Corzine set to pick candidate for lieutenant governor
APP.com | Monmouth and Ocean counties | Asbury Park Press
BY BOB JORDAN • FREEHOLD BUREAU • JULY 13, 2009
Randal Pinkett, the Season 4 winner of "The Apprentice," NBC's hit reality television show featuring Donald Trump, has emerged as the front-runner to become Gov. Jon S. Corzine's running mate in November"
A sure sign of the Apocalypse?
Never hire an ex-stripper escort. Too much attitude and an aged body. A 22 year old escort is always better than a early 30s ex-stripper turned escort- always.
//No the strip club is not the last resort. //
However, even with the sharp decline in inventories, the inventory to sales ratio has only declined to 1.42 in May - since sales have fallen sharply too. - CR
If you look at the last chart you see a steadily downward sloping curve since the start of the series - approx. 1992. - from about 1.55 in '92 to about 1.25 in '08. That was due to the revolution in supply chain mgmt brought on by application of IT & JIT. This was done in spite of moving a lot of production offshore and far from North American consumption 'hot spots'.
Since mid-08 it has spiked back up to 1.45 and now working back down... the recession & sales collapse.
Note that prior to the recession it looked like the ratio had hit a 'natural bottom' around 1.25... My guess is it will return to that level THEN continue down on trend again. Reason? Producers are shortening the supply chain significantly. The shorter the supply chain the faster the response and the less they have to hold as 'safety stock'.
I am involved in a project to do exactly this right now with a major mfgr. In effect they want their supply chain close to their factories so inventory can be minimized even more. The weakening dollar is going to make this option even more attractive - not only will it take longer to ship in from Asia, it will cost more to do so.
If the suppliers co-locate within close proximity to their OEM customers and the OEMs cut way back on what they inventory [build to order]... so that the only real inventory is raw material [say metal] and finished goods [say on the shelf]... then that ratio can go a lot lower than 1.25. Meaning less made overall but more made in NAFTA Zone that the numbers would suggest.
Cinco-X,
I am the the more humane and rational guy.. is that not enough
//A sure sign of the Apocalypse?//
"Next up raw materials spot shortages."
patiently waiting the shortage in silver
No the strip club is not the last resort. There are still rungs on that ladder to descend.
The Legal Pros out in NV are not doing too well, and would they be a rung above or below on that ladder?
What about payroll, sales and property taxes?
The 0% Tax Rate Solution: It's better policy, and politics, than the proliferation of tax credits.
The 0% Tax Rate Solution - WSJ.com
By PETER FERRARA
The federal income tax code is now so mangled that we can probably increase federal revenues with a 0% income tax rate for a majority of Americans. Long before President Barack Obama took office, the bottom 40% of income earners paid no federal income taxes. Because of refundable income tax credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), in 2006 these bottom 40% as a group actually received net payments equal to 3.6% of total income tax revenues, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office data. The actual middle class, the middle 20% of income earners, pay only 4.4% of total federal income tax revenues. That means the bottom 60% together pay less than 1% of income tax revenues.
They are going to fail left and right for financial reasons not necessarily economic reasons.
RD, are you questioning Schumpeter's "creative destruction"?
Say it ain't so.
If you pay anything over 300 /hr for a good multi-shot session with a hot 20 something, it is a ripoff.
//The Legal Pros out in NV are not doing too well//
" dryfly (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 11:00 am
..... it looked like the ratio had hit a 'natural bottom' around 1.25... My guess is it will return to that level THEN continue down on trend again. Reason? Producers are shortening the supply chain significantly. The shorter the supply chain the faster the response and the less they have to hold as 'safety stock'."
Interesting; there was a time when the plan was essentially keep inventories in "the transportation pipeline". Shortening it would effective reduce the available inventory. On the brighter side, reducing the feedback delay to the plant allows tighter control (higher gain) and this allows smaller local inventories. The mathematics of this have been understood since the '30s.
In effect they want their supply chain close to their factories so inventory can be minimized even more.
In other words, forces are in place to "regionalize" globalisation.
I expected this.
broward: green shoot?
" Lucifer (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 11:06 am
If you pay anything over 300 /hr for a good multi-shot session with a hot 20 something, it is a ripoff.
//The Legal Pros out in NV are not doing too well//"
Hmmmm..... so the average guy would need to pay about $25 per "shot"?
What materials producers don't understand is that modern financial alchemy has gutted the traditional value of companies that make things. They are going to fail left and right for financial reasons not necessarily economic reasons.
Wrong tense... 'are going' implies future event... it is happening now. Everyday I hear of another big industrial supplier blowing up. Most reorg but at a lower level of capacity and with less capability.
However - many of the ones I hear about were hijacked by PE & hedgies and then pumped up with the industrial equivalent of pergraniteel to flip like some OC tract home - all paid for with debt & OPM. Hoocoodanode such a collapse would derail it all?
Never hire an ex-stripper escort. Too much attitude and an aged body.
That's just Beautiful Woman Syndrome. All beautiful women suffer from varying degrees when recognizing that they are not the hottest thing on earth anymore.
The problem (esp with strippers) is that they spent so much time developing skills to manipulate people (strippers maximize money removed from patrons, eg) that they have delayed a whole lot of personal growth.
It's kinda sad really.
In other words, forces are in place to "regionalize" globalisation.
I expected this.
Exactly. The smart guys always 'globalized' this way - since the 90s at least. They all weren't that smart however - some had to learn the hard way.
OT: You guys are gonna luv this:
Average length of unemployment highest since 1948. - WSJ.com
Edit: Even more:
Nine Reasons the Economy is Not Getting Better - US News and World Report
Lucifer....more humane and rational....that is one of the aspects of the Luciferian cult I have been studying...what is that Tori Amos song, Father Lucifer...always did prefer the drizzle to the rain...
Here's the thing...epic of Gilgamesh..it was Enki who saved mankind from the deluge, not Enlil (king of the gods who is annoyed with all the noise man is making). For the Greeks, Prometheus sides with man against Zeus. There is a tendency for those 'devil worshipers' to be lumped up as evil, but is it really just a case of 'good intentions pave the road to hell'? Was the original sin compassion? You know, did you let the dog(humans) sleep in the bed, and then all hell broke lose because we chewed up the slippers of God, and all discipline had been lost? Makes you wonder. Of course I always get a tickle at trying to explain that Satan was a member of the heavenly court, and Lucifer is an entirely different angel...but alas what do I know.
That was due to the revolution in supply chain mgmt brought on by application of IT & JIT. This was done in spite of moving a lot of production offshore and far from North American consumption 'hot spots'.
Having worked on supply chain projects all my life, the savings brought about by JIT was miniscule compared to offshoring production, except in perishables.
They are going to fail left and right for financial reasons not necessarily economic reasons. - RD
RD, are you questioning Schumpeter's "creative destruction"?
Say it ain't so. - broward
I'm just calling for a different black swan triggering event. In the 30s when things just "stopped" people were left dazed and confused. Bread basket crops rotted while people went hungry having lost their job transporting grain. We analyzed what happened and instituted steps to address the problems. This time were need not fear a 30s type depression. Instead we are getting blindsided by entirely different problems.
cinco-x,
an average woman would have to pay me to care.
Think about it, how much would you lose in a divorce, alimony and childsupport battle. Now divide your potential monthly loss by say 250.. now think what you can buy at 250.. you will be surprised.
" Lucifer (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 11:16 am
cinco-x,
an average woman would have to pay me to care.
Think about it, how much would you lose in a divorce, alimony and childsupport battle. Now divide your potential monthly loss by say 250.. now think what you can buy at 250.. you will be surprised"
LOL. Whenever I get the question, "have you ever paid for sex", I just reply that I'm married, and that I've paid thru the nose
Dryfly,
I'm thinking the US/Mexico border may become more of a factor than the regional JIT supply chain shortening bean counters projected.
Cinco-X,
Most men do not realize that you pay for it... one way or the other. Better to pay for a changeable array of hot women who pretend to be nice than an aging woman who acts like a bitch and tries to screw you over.
Having worked on supply chain projects all my life, the savings brought about by JIT was miniscule compared to offshoring production, except in perishables.
My experience is exactly the opposite. Case in point - have APQP conference calls later this week with design team in INDIA... because our domestic producer beat Indian prices delivered here. Domestic producer is in Wisconsin. Labor cost per hour differential is 20X but with labor only 10% of cost and the need to respond to customer demand within days means India costs way too much [requires large domestic inventory to support customer response].
A lot of offshore cost benefit [on paper] was due to organizations NOT considering or even understanding the true logistical cost to deliver & support around the world. If end user is in Asia then make in Asia... if end user is NAFTA Zone make in NAFTA Zone.
Goldman Sachs (GS) Executives Dump $700 Million In Stock
Goldman Sachs (GS) Executives Dump $700 Million In Stock – 24/7 Wall St.
Posted: July 14, 2009 at 4:36 am
Goldman Sachs (GS) has a tin ear. It cannot hear or wishes to ignore the tremendous bad publicity that has come from news that it will pay out record bonuses this year. It will pay those bonuses after taking billions of dollars in government bailout money, which it has paid back, and in the face of a Congress that is looking closely at limiting executive pay. Goldman acts as if it wants to be rebuked by the federal government, shareholders, and the broader public. But, the firm has been the most successful investment bank in the world for years, and it may simply think that its management deserves large bonuses for the quality of work that they do and the returns that they provide. Goldman has poured some more fuel on the fire over compensation. Executives at the financial firm sold $700 million in stock between September and April. According to the FT, “The surge in selling among Goldman partners, at a time when the US government had thrown a lifeline to Wall Street, is likely to draw criticism from lawmakers on Capitol Hill.” That may be the understatement of the year.
Communism really didn't collapse in totality, as Capitalism filled the void nicely...
But what's gonna fill our void?
Exactly. The smart guys always 'globalized' this way
There's an optimum scale that current production can be built at. I expect energy & commodity prices to shrink the scale. A lot of theory of globalisation assumes certain things like almost zero energy cost, zero latency, no complexity cost.
That's very interesting.
I predicted it about fourteen months ago.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=west_seattle
Trends rarely reach their predicted extreme
and as I sit here reading about $126 per barrel oil, I wonder if "global trade" has peaked, too. It's possible that a regional/localized trading meme could take hold. There's probably some way to measure it, memetically, but it needs some thought.
It's also possible that the Internet didn't "equalize" the world so much is it opened a broader pipeline for equalization of differentials, similar to the interaction of railroads and commodities in the 19th century. A rebalancing towards localization might be reflected in information structure, or should be. I can see trends in that direction in the search engine world, a tendencey towards a class hierarchy structure with minimal interaction at the higher and lower boundaries.
Peak oil will be a major force in the next decade and will likely accelerate localization and deccelerate growth of global projects & trade.
I expect a re-settling of the current system into a more regionalized structure, more coupled back to local control, local culture.
OT: Here's another good one:
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/publications/mirsp/16-25mr43.pdf
In other words, forces are in place to "regionalize" globalisation.
Of course. China can only subsidize for so long.
All the internet has really provided is mostly insomnia, but very little income.
He missed the biggest one.. can we go in the same direction as before
Five for '09: Commentary: Lingering questions Wall Street needs to answer by year's end
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- It's time for Wall Street to put up or shut up. With financial Armageddon pretty much off the table, the banks and brokerages left standing have an opportunity to finish the job, clean up the mess and make some needed changes. If successful, Wall Street could be a more profitable and safer place to do business in 2010.
So, as we head into the second half of the year, here is a to-do list that the financial community needs to get cracking on. Answer these questions, and maybe we won't parade half the industry before Congress next year to complain about bonuses. (Actually, we probably will do that to make ourselves feel better anyway.)
How much are toxic assets worth?
Can order be restored to the energy markets?
How will hedge funds be reined in?
What about IPOs and M&A?
Can the 'bailout culture' be rolled back?
Well my wife has promised to still feed me when I am 64...but since I do all the cooking now anyway....makes you wonder? Just kidding...all I can say is that my friends in high school and in college all said I was a fool, and the woman I was seeking did not exist. I found her...she jokes that I called her into existence...I don't know. I don't have a history of compromising though, all I can suggest is you don't leave your heart closed to the possibility that there is an individual of the female persuasion that isn't as you describe. Another good myth there..the difference between Lilith and Eve....jettison all the new age crap associated with Lilith and the original tale is quite enlightening to the problems that plague couples today.
It cannot hear or wishes to ignore the tremendous bad publicity that has come from news that it will pay out record bonuses this year.
(Sigh). Goldman just uses the Wall Street business model that the public just doesn't get. Plowing half the profits into compensation is great for such businesses as racing yachts, mansions that aren't Mc and Ducati motorcycles.
So has investing in the stock market for most "outsiders" and they have have lost money!
//All the internet has really provided is mostly insomnia, but very little income.//
I expect a re-settling of the current system into a more regionalized structure, more coupled back to local control, local culture.
Agreed, broward.
Vonbek, check out my homepage.
due to organizations NOT considering or even understanding the true logistical cost to deliver & support around the world
Paper distortions, really.
Fake paper is masking the true costs.
Well, I have to say, that's the Austrian thing in action, sending false signals to promote inefficient production.
That's very interesting.
You are making the same assumption as those who calculated the amount of horse droppings in london in 1930 based on figures and growth numbers from 1900 and extrapolating them to 1930.
//Peak oil will be a major force in the next decade and will likely accelerate localization and deccelerate growth of global projects & trade.//
Dryfly,
I'm thinking the US/Mexico border may become more of a factor than the regional JIT supply chain shortening bean counters projected.
I'm working US/Mex border hard... even there the differentials aren't that huge. We will be building a plant in Mexico to support our customer's plant in Mexico [their final assembly site for NAFTA Zone]... they also have more intensive up stream sub-assembly & fab operations inside the US proper - we will support them from our Midwest facility. We were told to be ready to expand the Midwest site significantly more than the Mexican plant... the need is greater domestically.
So who is going to lose out? (1) Domestic mfgrs dying due to automotive industry collapse - we intentionally stayed out of automotive and (2) Asia - the customer is cutting back the buy from Asia due to 'unexpected hidden costs' [hoocoodanode] and logistical hassles.
Also of interest... our Midwest plant can beat the Mexican plant in cost/price... only problem is it isn't close enough to Mexico either... that is why we need two facilities. Rapid response is critical. Days matter.
Lesson: get nimble, go regional young man.
Sorry if this is a repost as I've been at the grocery:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve bought $7.5 billion in debt maturing in 2011 and 2012 on Tuesday. Dealers offered $14.73 billion to be purchased. The operation is the first of two this week as the Fed continues its efforts to keep a lid on Treasury yields, which are the benchmarks for a broad range of corporate and consumer borrowing rates. At the four previous buybacks in this maturity range, the central bank purchased between $6.9 billion to $7.5 billion, according to RBS Securities.
Hmmmm..... so the average guy would need to pay about $25 per "shot"?
A bit higher than that, still. Last week, $175 for a twofer with a 26 yo who'd been in (not a Pet) Penthouse. Big fake 34DDs and all.
Floatsum = Debtritus
Vonbek777,
Women's actions are restricted only by their choices and what they think they can get away with.. Promises, morality, sense of fairness, farsightedness are so uncool.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda,
That is called wage deflation..
Nothing to worry about. GS recorded record profits, skimming off the UST's record treasury sales. All's good when GS is paying out record bonuses.
Let the hoi-unempollied eat cake!
Women's actions are restricted only by their choices and what they think they can get away with.. Promises, morality, sense of fairness, farsightedness are so uncool.
We're talking bankers here, right?
Dryfly:
Are you guys concerned about instability and violence in Mexico, or are you able to effectively insulate your business and employees? My fathers side of the family is in the shipping business (dry bulk frieghters), and they stopped using shipyards in Pakistan for refit work recently due to instability. Have some interesting stories about the recent run up in and Chinese stockpiling, if you are interested.
Nothing to worry about. GS recorded record profits, skimming off the UST's record treasury sales. All's good when GS is paying out record bonuses.
Let the hoi-unempollied eat cake!
Let them eat upside-down cake.
We probably see a more "regionalized" world post-Crash, a tighter coupling of production to consumption.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda
thank you great read indeed.
women have a lot in common with banksters.
//We're talking bankers here, right?//
Can't get much tighter than eating what I grow in my backyard.
You are making the same assumption as those who calculated the amount of horse droppings in london in 1930 based on figures and growth numbers from 1900 and extrapolating them to 1930.
Oil is just component of the mix, it will be useful for a long time and I don't agree with Dawg, I don't see the price going back down again.
Globalization was always a foolish goal.
It's built on top of temporary pricing differences.
"Lesson: get nimble, go regional young man."
Lesson: get nimble, go local young man.
There, I fixed it.
dryfly (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 8:32 am
Lesson: get nimble, go regional young man.
A lesson California refuses to learn.
" Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 11:33 am
Hmmmm..... so the average guy would need to pay about $25 per "shot"?
A bit higher than that, still. Last week, $175 for a twofer with a 26 yo who'd been in (not a Pet) Penthouse. Big fake 34DDs and all."
Folks,
That remark was a snark about the "staying power" of the average guy. Actually, 5minutes might be on the long side
Are you guys concerned about instability and violence in Mexico, or are you able to effectively insulate your business and employees? My fathers side of the family is in the shipping business (dry bulk frieghters), and they stopped using shipyards in Pakistan for refit work recently due to instability. Have some interesting stories about the recent run up in and Chinese stockpiling, if you are interested.
I am interested in ANYTHING Chinese... they are the 900 lb gorilla and at times a rather awkward unruly one at that.
As for Mexican stability - yes we are concerned - and are considering site locations accordingly. When down there recently [NE Mexico along the border & also Monterrey] we noticed the border was armed to the teeth... yet it seemed completely 'demilitarized' in Monterrey. A world of difference between the two. We are leaning on placing our facility in Monterrey as a result [Monterrey is really a nice town as far as industrial cities go - hell I'd move there... border cities on EITHER SIDE - US or Mexico - suck.
you could use any of the ED drugs to correct that problem.. a very useful side effect of those drugs.
//Actually, 5minutes might be on the long side //
This inventory report jives pretty well with the retails sales. It looks like the big driver of sales this month (excluding gas) was all the dealers cut loose in May/June liquidating. There is one down the road from me. Went from a full, 2 acre lot to scraps over the past month. I think a public auction is scheduled in August for the tools and spare parts inventory. Ditto for the GM dealer in downtown Saratoga that shuttered last month.
Lucifer then that is a result of how men raised them and how the perceived their mothers. Since my wife did not have a father, or any father figures she could accept and her mother was a sad excuse for a woman, she rejected the typical mental box women are placed in/place themselves in. I have rejected a lot of crap that goes with 'being a man' as well. People can escape the 'normal'...that is why I brought up Lilith...if you go into a relationship without the hubris of trying to figure out who is in charge, then you don't have to worry about your 'slave' planning on revolt at a later date. This is true for both sides. Why I said before, ego is the biggest block in a relationship. Most people see courtship as a competition and can't leave the ego behind...but if you can get past it (both sides) something special comes together. Another movie, old Nelson Eddy/Jeanette MacDonald musical, Naughty Marietta...there is a scene where the colonial men are waiting for the boat full of brides to be...there is a big portly man who goes and finds a big portly women...checks her muscles...because he isn't looking for beauty or refinement.. but someone he can build a life with in a new world..example stayed with me. Relationships are about what you put in them. As a very self-centered individual myself, it took me a long time to fully understand this.
My experience is exactly the opposite. ...
dry, i'm not really arguing against you but you may be involved in different sectors than me. My experience is exactly the same as what you described in your 10:10 post. The PE and hedgies would rather offshore than invest in the long-term health of the companies.
My experiece in the first 15 years was in manu and that was the exact case. The last 10 have been in logistics and when I started our customer base covered most sectors; the only growth has been in perishables and far too many customers in other sectors have either been swallowed up or closed up. Perishables are now 80% of our business. When I started in logistics the expectation was growth around the Mexican border but it never happened and the west coast ports had more opportunities.
I think you are right that JIT has supply chain value and we expect multi-sector growth over time but we were certainly wrong before in not anticipating the other events that shoved supply chain projects onto the shelf. The open question in my mind is whether the home-market growth will be organic - i.e. small business arising and growing from home-market opportunity (my company's bread and butter) - or government-sponsored which tends to favor larger players (harder for us to get a foot in the door).
Wow. Doors lyrics parodies from the common to obscure.
CR commentariat + 2.
U.S. Budget Gap Exceeds $1 Trillion for Fiscal Year
U.S. Budget Gap Exceeds $1 Trillion for Fiscal Year (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Well stated, Vonbek.
JD wrote:
All the internet has really provided is mostly insomnia, but very little income.
I disagree. I do a bit of side programming work through the Interwebs and pull quite a few rupees from the electrons.
I can also point to Amazon and iTunes.
Lesson: get nimble, go local young man.
There, I fixed it.
Don't always want local - you probably don't want me to put a foundry in your neighborhood... but having one of decent scale so as to be globally competitive yet close enough so you can get parts when you need them [but not clattering all night in your back yard] is a benefit.
There are good reasons to zone residential, commercial and industrial. I've been in industries where there was no way I could function and still be a 'good neighbor'... best to site those facilities at a good stand off.
"I can also point to Amazon and iTunes."
I doubt that there is more net revenue because of those.
Roubini at it again:
Brown Manure, Not Green Shoots - Forbes.com
Added:
"There are also signs that there may be forces leading to a double-dip recession sometime toward the second half of next year or toward 2011. If oil prices rise too much, too fast, too soon, that's going to have a negative effect on trade and real disposable income in oil-importing countries (U.S., Europe, Japan, China, etc.)."
she rejected the typical mental box women
Men and women are biologically pre-disposed to different behavior.
The current theory of "equality" in Western culture is seriously flawed.
Cinco and Lucifer , et al: Coincidence and on topic to your discussion...
Porn: Business of Pleasure, Technology, Sex, Wall Street, Profits, Business, Industry, Mobile, Marketing, Adult Entertainment - CNBC.com
it was once too taboo to talk about, but not anymore. In the new CNBC original production "Porn: Business of Pleasure" nothing is off limits when it comes to the controversial multi-billion dollar industry that aims to please but has been known to offend.
And sister story: Jesse Jane : On the Set & at Home with Porn Star Jesse Jane - CNBC
dryfly (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 8:49 am
Lesson: get nimble, go local young man.
There, I fixed it.
Don't always want local - you probably don't want me to put a foundry in your neighborhood... but having one of decent scale so as to be globally competitive yet close enough so you can get parts when you need them [but not clattering all night in your back yard] is a benefit.
There are good reasons to zone residential, commercial and industrial. I've been in industries where there was no way I could function and still be a 'good neighbor'... best to site those facilities at a good stand off.
My hero. One of the most idiotic planner fads in decades could only gain traction because of the bubble; mixed use. The live/work model was a disaster from the start and we'll be paying for it for decades to come.
I think you are right that JIT has supply chain value and we expect multi-sector growth over time but we were certainly wrong before in not anticipating the other events that shoved supply chain projects onto the shelf. The open question in my mind is whether the home-market growth will be organic - i.e. small business arising and growing from home-market opportunity (my company's bread and butter) - or government-sponsored which tends to favor larger players (harder for us to get a foot in the door).
My guess is mostly organic small business growth... gov't sponsored [subsidized] will go away in time [they always have once pols & voters lose interest].
But we are early in the cycle - the company I work with now is just beginning to stick its head out of the shell [turtle-like analogy] and look around for opportunity. Small cos need to be early or they miss out but it is still really really early.
Dryfly:
Like I said, my father's cousins are all in the shipping business. He turned his back on that life to be a physicist, BTW. Some work for the big Greek shipping houses, and a couple own their own shipping company. All these companies, which account for much of global trade, are private and family owned, so getting good data is hard. My Dad just got back from Greece, and he spent the bulk of his time with the guys who own the shipping company. Most of their business is shipping dry bulk agricultural commodities (soy, wheat, etc) from Brazil/Argentina to Japan/China/Korea. Prices in their sector have recently stabilized, but not because shipping volumes are up. The Chinese are using freighters to stockpile stuff off the coast. Apparently, it is cheaper that warehousing the stuff ashore. This has the effect of taking capacity off line. Also, most shipping companies are expanding their fleets. There is a huge amount of new capacity coming on line soon. Everyone knows this is unsustainable, but everyone will keep dancing until the music stops (ala Citibank).
"I can also point to Amazon and iTunes."
I doubt that there is more net revenue because of those.
OK, how about eBay, which facilitates a grand global garage sale that otherwise would not take place, no?
The live/work model was a disaster from the start
My FIL, who's farm has been in the family over 200 years, will be interested to know this.
A solution to the excess capacity problem?
French workers threaten to blow up plant
"Employees of the engine parts maker New Fabris have rigged up a series of gas canisters inside a factory workshop which they say will be detonated on July 31 if the two carmakers fail to pay €30,000 to each of the 366 workers facing unemployment."
" Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 11:52 am
Cinco and Lucifer , et al: Coincidence and on topic to your discussion...
Porn: Business of Pleasure, Technology, Sex, Wall Street, Profits, Business, Industry, Mobile, Marketing, Adult Entertainment - CNBC.com
it was once too taboo to talk about, but not anymore. In the new CNBC original production "Porn: Business of Pleasure""
Hey, porn enabled the Internet, and was it's primary source of income and a driver for higher BWs. Also true for the VCR rental business 20-25 years ago. Big driver of profits for some cable companies too. Maybe porn will pull us out of this economic mess as well.........
"it'll take a year until we get inventories just right and retailers throw their hands up in the air (target) or declare bk (ie Borders Books) "
Can't wait for Borders to go down. Sad excuse for a bookstore, sustained and expanded only by sheer size and easy access to other peoples' money. They tried the usual tactic and plunked down a large outlet right between two big local independents. But the independents are still hanging in there -- they outlasted a SuperCrown before this -- because this is a reading community with specific interests, and they stock for it. All Borders' stocking decisions are made 2000 miles away.
I think the "decline of the mom 'n pop" or small local chains will stop as national regional operators lose their supply of cheap steroids (easy access to expansion loans).
RD: I grew up in a town with a steel mill, a coke plant and an oil refinery.
Only the refinery left now. The community is hollowed out, aging, depreciating.
What to do?
Won't debate, many here have sound statements to posit. I guess we shall see what we shall see.
Expect it to be a leap that will catch us all surprised.
Is the duration of the mouseovers for glossary terms browser dependent or is it specified by the Koopster? The current allotment is insufficient to read some of the longer entries.
"Maybe porn will pull us out of this economic mess as well........."
nope, not gonna say a word. I'm being good.
Hey, porn enabled the Internet, and was it's primary source of income and a driver for higher BWs.
Porn also led the way in online payment systems.
There are good reasons to zone residential, commercial and industrial.
I never gave this any thought before but it's another refutation of pure libertarian theory. In the most abstract sense, zoning is a function of minimizing transaction costs by segregating and centralizing behavior. That's an interesting example.
Maybe porn will pull us out of this economic mess as well.........
Well it might give the unemployed something to do in the house , thats for sure.....
" sm_landlord (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 11:56 am
A solution to the excess capacity problem?
French workers threaten to blow up plant"
Unfortunately, the plants we need blown up are in China-
"I think the "decline of the mom 'n pop" or small local chains will stop as national regional operators lose their supply of cheap steroids (easy access to expansion loans)."
But will the M&Ps ever come back?
That would be nice. I am so very sick of cookie-cutter retail and restaurants.
And I agree - Borders has been a lame bookstore as far back as I can remember.
Only about 30% of Borders floor space has actual books. The rest is cafe, DVDs and floor displays. Terrible selection. I can't wait for that steaming pile of crap to liquidate. We could use that space for better uses, like an empty lot, or a crack house.
" volker the viking (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 11:59 am
"Maybe porn will pull us out of this economic mess as well........."
nope, not gonna say a word. I'm being good."
C'mon....don't be shy
Everybody does it....
But when you are bad, you're terrific.
Back to work.
nope, not gonna say a word. I'm being good.
Then let me say it. Porn creates messes it doesn't clean them up.
What are sales and inventory per sqft of CRE or cost of CRE (heating, AC, insurance, etc.)?
but it is still really really early.
Chances of a second downturn are very high, I think.
I wouldn't bet against it.
Call them mom and pops, or whatever you like. Entrepreneurs will be the driver as the future approaches.
"But when you are bad, you're terrific."
I get that a lot.
The live/work model was a disaster from the start
My FIL, who's farm has been in the family over 200 years, will be interested to know this.
There are some occupations that are appropriate for local live/work - most today are not. Or at best need to be scrutinized before knee jerk decisions either way are made.
Even farming - you want a huge hog operation next to you? On a site of about 1000 acres one of these can produce as much manure as city w/ 30,000 residents. They will have their own sewer plant. You want to live next to one of those even IF state of the art and no effluent escapes the 'plant'?
I don't. Yet with 6 billion people on the planet those types of 'systems' are increasingly going to be used because if designed right are actually LESS polluting than 1000 farms with 100 hogs each [similar overall capacity].
Not arguing with you just saying it isn't 200 years ago.
Wow, you stay away a couple of days and the place goes male chauvinist pig. Talk about call girls and the losses of marriage makes me think some of the men here have lost a lot of money and see that as a loss of manhood. Your pecker does not have to rise and fall in unison with your wallet.
" volker the viking (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:02 pm
"But when you are bad, you're terrific."
I get that a lot."
Practice a lot when you're alone?
broward, if you are talking about the normal hunter/gather nesting meme...there is truth to that...but it is overstated. Again, I am talking about individuals too, not whole segments of society...I am not arguing that men and women are 'equal' biologically and that hormones don't play a role in behavior... conditioning has its role too however. I will give you a further example. My wife is a computer geek...she is the only woman at her office that is part of the 'men's club'. She gets invited to the lunches, while all the other women eat at the office. She talks sports, computer games, and other topics that are generally considered man talk...her boss actually said he wished more 'women' were like her, because there is a divide. In terms of body chemistry, my wife has a weird one, so do I... might be the reason, but I still think it has more to do with how we were raised and what we rejected.
"Porn creates messes it doesn't clean them up."
Porn amplifies already existing messes. If porn becomes a problem, there are underlying pre-existing issues.
Porn creates messes it doesn't clean them up...
Like guns kill people, i am assuming.
Serioulsly, people mess things up, people kill their relationships, like alcoholics, drug addicts... if a dvd or mag creates a mess then so can herbie the love bug and Highlights...
and as far as the actors and actresses that get messed up , so did the kids from different strokes....
it's the people...
Mel:
A lot of guys have gone thru divorce and seen women take all the assets and half their income in perpetuity. Divorce law is still heavily skewed towards women.
Porn also led the way in online payment systems.
Porn is almost arbed out.
Check out porntube.com.
There's a couple of youtube-like competitors, too.
" Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:04 pm
...........My wife is a computer geek...she is the only woman at her office that is part of the 'men's club'. She gets invited to the lunches, while all the other women eat at the office. She talks sports, computer games, and other topics that are generally considered man talk...her boss actually said he wished more 'women' were like her,"
Have her take this test:
SparkLife
Like guns kill people, i am assuming.
No, I'm thinking more literally.
Two times one can know for sure someone is lying:
When they say they never have. And when they say they don't anymore.
The live/work model was a disaster from the start
My FIL, who's farm has been in the family over 200 years, will be interested to know this.
There are some occupations that are appropriate for local live/work - most today are not. Or at best need to be scrutinized before knee jerk decisions either way are made.
Agreed. I was pointing out the silliness of 1. Absolutist statements, and 2. Live/Work models have been around since the dawn of time. (Farming, prostitution, old-fashioned mom&pop retail (who lived above the store), nudist hackers, etc.) The separation of these two is a recent development.
I never gave this any thought before but it's another refutation of pure libertarian theory. In the most abstract sense, zoning is a function of minimizing transaction costs by segregating and centralizing behavior. That's an interesting example.
Broward - I was a libertarian BEFORE I became a chemical engineer... after I became a chem e and discovered what I could make [and how I could fuck it up] that was when I left the libertarian camp. Zoning & preemptive regulation wrt execution of a viable libertarian policy platform convinced me libertarianism belongs on the chalk boards and in the heads of egghead think tanks only. Nice concept & great ideals - now lets move on to something actionable that can actually get us somewhat closer to those ideals IN PRACTICE.
"Porn creates messes it doesn't clean them up."
Porn amplifies already existing messes. If porn becomes a problem, there are underlying pre-existing issues.
Maybe it would be better if you guys moved this conversation to the Internet.
JP,
Thanks again for turning me on to that personality test yesterday.
Mrs. Gnome and I had an interesting conversation last night about our respective personalities.
I was in the Stanford Shopping Center on Saturday; it was busy and the parking lot was pretty full. But while walking through Bloomingdales and Macys it was clear that the inventory on the shelves was very thin.
Both the quantity and variety of products were noticeably low.
Dupe
Got work to do - must turn off CR NOW!!!
Check in w/ you all later.
I was a libertarian BEFORE I became a chemical engineer..
My experience is that most Randians don't have a quantifiation background. They work in jobs withouth a lot of coordination so they don't understand costs of standardization and differentiation. They don't grasp that a pure Libertarian world blows up a LOT of stuff.
Mrs. Gnome and I had an interesting conversation last night about our respective personalities.
BTW, that's what I think the test is great for -- starting discussions like that. Personalities are too complicated to measure completely with 4 variables obviously, but it causes good discussions and bridges to be built across different personalities.
Anyway, I gotta do the dryfly thing and turn off CR. Biz awaits. Happy Glooming (ht to LLiz)!
"There are some occupations that are appropriate for local live/work - most today are not. Or at best need to be scrutinized before knee jerk decisions either way are made."
Very true. "Live-Work" is very big in my college town -- there's a 20-acre live-work project stalled out by the economy about a block away from here -- but they forsee live/work as knowledge-worker heaven. Designers and programmers and marketers and such living in or near their studios.
Since actual industry was gutted here over the last 20 years, and this is a desirable town to live in, the upper class of locals want work for their educated spawn (and suitable local college grads) here in town instead of them having to leave -- and of course they're all "knowledge workers," nothing icky and polluting around here, thank you. Although there's a surfboard mfg outfit the down the street that'll about knock you out with the fumes, that somehow gets a pass.
That said, since I've lived the last 30 years in fairly dense communities, any new retail built in the central area of town without apartments on top is obscene. And to be fair, they're been pretty good about that sort of thing around here since the quake.
(Edit -- the Borders I was snarking about earlier is on the ground floor of a four-story post-quake building with two floors of offices and one floor of penthouse apartments above. It was a real popular building during the dotcom boom. But it wasn't specifically built as live-work, even though dot-commers worked in it and lived on the top floor; just with the right mix of functions for that area and time (downtown).
here is a 3 part interview in 1959 with Ayn rand being interviewed buy Mike Wallace...
Sorry about the host site but it gives all three with quick load times and all in one place...
Evil Conservative Radio: Ayn Rand Interview with Mike Wallace (1959)- Boldly Promoting Reaganism During the Reign of Obama
Heritage New Media Partners, Inc. - NMA TV - 1959 Mike Wallace-Ayn Rand Interview, 1 of 3
another.....
" dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:08 pm
I never gave this any thought before but it's another refutation of pure libertarian theory. In the most abstract sense, zoning is a function of minimizing transaction costs by segregating and centralizing behavior. That's an interesting example.
Broward - I was a libertarian BEFORE I became a chemical engineer... after I became a chem e and discovered what I could make [and how I could fuck it up] that was when I left the libertarian camp. Zoning & preemptive regulation wrt execution of a viable libertarian policy platform convinced me libertarianism belongs on the chalk boards and in the heads of egghead think tanks only. Nice concept & great ideals - now lets move on to something actionable that can actually get us somewhat closer to those ideals IN PRACTICE."
Political Compass identifies me as having Libertarian leanings, and I think it's possible to rationalize zoning with Libertarianism, at least as I understand it. Laws should be made to protect us from each other, not from ourselves, and preventing your neighbor from putting a smelting plant in his backyard, less than 100 feet from your deck sounds like protecting you from others. A greater degree of financial regulation qualifies as well, as does prohibiting snake oil salesmen.
No calling in sick or for snow days when you live/work...
The separation of these two is a recent development.
And that recent development is cheap personal transport. Prior to that, "zoning" meant separation of the classes. It still does, but no one wants to admit it.
You guys are talking about the MBTI test?
That thing is amazing.
I took it a couple of years ago when I got back into dating and i was shocked at how accurate the profile was.
" broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:15 pm
I was a libertarian BEFORE I became a chemical engineer..
My experience is that most Randians don't have a quantifiation background. They work in jobs withouth a lot of coordination so they don't understand costs of standardization and differentiation. They don't grasp that a pure Libertarian world blows up a LOT of stuff."
Reducing things to the absurd and beyond is generally a bad idea, except in humor, politics, and the like.
Most Libertarians I have met worked in secure, subsidized industries (academia and government). I stopped being a Libertarian when I visited Saipan, an Island north of Guam with no government to speak off. Nasty, brutish and short describe life up there.
So is the internet
or even land animals- less than 1/10th of the timespan of life on earth.
//And that recent development is cheap personal transport.//
Myers Briggs Test, yep.
Laws should be made to protect us from each othe
That's why I used the term "pure libertarianism".
The Randians, i.e. Anarcho-Capitalists believe that even laws create market anomalies, ergo they are the source of all our woe.
kind of like Original Sin.
I'd brand myself as 50% Right, 35% Left, 15% Lib.
Nuke,
Libertarian have a belief that they will always be in their current position/ situation.
Des Moines pledges to move against homeless camps
desmoinesregister.com | Des Moines | The Des Moines Register
I imagine those homeless people, made homeless at least in part by the government sending their jobs overseas, are wondering where is the gratitude for all the taxes paid over the last few decades.
CIT shorts covering like MAD! 8 cents baby! Take that bears!
Extend and Lie -
"Rep. Gary Miller, R-Diamond Bar (Los Angeles County), has taken up the cause pushed by the National Association of Realtors, National Association of Mortgage Brokers and other organizations, co-introducing legislation that would halt the changes for 18 months."
Bill would suspend new home appraisal standards
Appraisers still hating on America
Des Moines pledges to move against homeless camps
If it were a choice between a nearby pig farm and the above scenario, I would go with the pigs.
Thanks for that link. I'm going to send it on to my 30 year old mechanical engineer daughter who has had to learn how to work with a bunch of "old, white guys" like me.
picosec (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 9:11 am
reply ignore user
I was in the Stanford Shopping Center on Saturday; it was busy and the parking lot was pretty full. But while walking through Bloomingdales and Macys it was clear that the inventory on the shelves was very thin.
Both the quantity and variety of products were noticeably low.
I was also there a few weeks ago and amazed by what percentage of folks shopping there now are Asian, I'd say atleast 70%. The only shops that appear to be doing well are ones that Asians like ie. Louis Vuitton. Or ones with major sales. Of course the Apple store was still packed.
"Des Moines pledges to move against homeless camps"
I see from the article they estimate 1000-1500 homeless in the Des Moines area. Fat chance. Probably twice that many out on the street and in the fields -- they don't like being counted, and having rural areas near town is a big attraction for campers. And there are probably more living in cars and vans who move around nightly between industrial areas. I speak from experience.
And certainly not counting the ones who are couch-surfing with friends, but have no fixed home, no money, and no prospects.
House prices will stay in the doldrums for years, report predicts
House prices will stay in the doldrums for years, report predicts |
Business |
The Guardian
Racial I am with you and the pigs.
Goldman Sachs Tower:
"Originally the tower was meant to be the centerpiece of an entire Goldman Sachs campus at Exchange Place, which was to include a training center, a university, and a large hotel complex. Many of the company's Manhattan-based equity traders refused to move away from Wall Street, delaying the occupation of the building's top 13 floors, which until early 2008, have remained vacant."
"If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite."
William Blake
I wanna tell you 'bout Goldman Sachs and the Big Beat
Comes out of the Wall*Street swamps
Cool and slow with plenty of precision
With a back beat narrow and hard to master
Some call it heavenly in it's brilliance
Others, mean and ruthful of the American dream
I love the fiends that have gathered together on this thin graft
They have constructed pyramids in honor of them escaping
This is the land where the Profits died
The traders in the casino rightly figured
They are saying, "Forget wrong & right".
Live it up with forests of bonuses
Out here on the perimeter there are no losses
Out here we get loans - immaculate."
Listen to this, and I'll tell you 'bout the heartache
I'll tell you 'bout the heartache and the loss of thought
I'll tell you 'bout the hopeless fight
The meager food for souls forgot
I'll tell you 'bout the company without a soul
I'll tell you this
No eternal reward will forgive them now for wasting the pawns
I'll tell you 'bout Goldman Sachs and the Big Beat
Soft drivin', slow and mad, like some new language
Now, listen to this, and I'll tell you 'bout Goldman
I'll tell you 'bout the Goldman that I know
I'll tell you 'bout the hopeless fight
Wondering about the American dream
Tell you 'bout the company without a soul
Dryfly: With "just in time" inventory, who holds the buffer stocks? Who bears the cost if the supply room is bare so the factory has to close for want of a part or the merchant loses a sale for want of an item?
Previously, you have written about how the supply chain is under severe financial stress and might not have the resources to fund the ramp-up of production, if demand returns.
When does JIT inventory morph from being prudent working capital management to being penny-wise, pound-foolish suicide?
Morning Call Appearance | The Big Picture
How did this get on CNBC?
Oooh, MSNBC.
good articles: Interesting Finance & Economic articles
"Drive your cart and your plow over the bones of the dead"
--william blake
"
mhdoc (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:27 pm
Thanks for that link. I'm going to send it on to my 30 year old mechanical engineer daughter who has had to learn how to work with a bunch of "old, white guys" like me."
Poor kid- I always feel bad for the girls who come to work in engineering, except for the bitchy ones with an axe to grind. I don't care what they say, if a guy acted like that he'd get his butt kicked.
Juvenal Delinquent,
bravo on Texas Radio. +1
Extremely important that everyone see this:
The Fed Under Fire: The Federal Reserve Is The Black Hole In American Democracy (Phenomenal 8-Minute Short Film) - Home - The Daily Bail
We were contacted by the film's producers and asked to profile their work. I receive film-video submissions daily, and this is the most impressive piece I've ever seen: a brand new, short film by Lagan Sebert and Harry Hanbury of The American News Project starring Ron Paul, Wlliam Greider, Dennis Kucinich, Darrell Issa and Alan Grayson on HR 1207.
Audit The Fed.
A lot of guys have gone thru divorce and seen women take all the assets and half their income in perpetuity. Divorce law is still heavily skewed towards women.
Severely OT:
My favorite divorce cases have been where the wife/mother takes a lesbian lover, files for divorce because of irreconcilable differences, and is awarded 55+% of the marital assets plus alimony and child support. It is even better when the lover was met through one of their children's social activities such as kid sports. Husband can't prove that there is adultery going on, and since most states don't recognize gay marriage or gay civil unions, the law cannot treat these sort of relationships with any bias unless properly documented or properly portrayed. (Also, there is quite a pride factor that seems to affect men in these cases. Men can hit other men if they are fooling around with his wife. I have yet to hear of a man who fought with a woman for stealing his woman.)
A woman can travel the country with a female friend, share hotel rooms--or even beds, and hang out with said friend, and it rarely raises any suspicions if done discretely. A man can never do these things without raising eyebrows even if completely platonic--if that is possible.
Family Law is only going to get more "exotic" as the family continues its wayward evolution too.
" yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:41 pm
Severely OT:
My favorite divorce cases have been where the wife/mother takes a lesbian lover, files for divorce because of irreconcilable differences, and is awarded 55+% of the marital assets plus alimony and child support. It is even better when the lover was met through one of their children's social activities such as kid sports. Husband can't prove that there is adultery going on, and since most states don't recognize gay marriage or gay civil unions, the law cannot treat these sort of relationships with any bias unless properly documented or properly portrayed. (Also, there is quite a pride factor that seems to affect men in these cases. Men can hit other men if they are fooling around with his wife. I have yet to hear of a man who fought with a woman for stealing his woman.)"
No fault divorce is often the rule, so even adultery doesn't play into it, at least not here in MA. Alienation-of-affection is probably the best route, and you might recoup some of the money, etc. you lose on the other half of the equation.
you lose on the other half of the equation.
The male or the female side?
Messy divorce - one more reason to get the government out of the marriage business...
No fault divorce is often the rule, so even adultery doesn't play into it, at least not here in MA. Alienation-of-affection is probably the best route, and you might recoup some of the money, etc. you lose on the other half of the equation.
Down here, we have no fault too, but when splitting up assets, it starts in the 50%/50% area and is moved on a sliding scale depending on negotiations, earnings, financial faults (e.g. willingly under-employed), etc. Adultery isn't treated as a "fault" per se, but it can influence what each side will and will not accept.
Adultery may be "Blah", but being the wronged spouse owning a video recording of the "guilty" spouse participating in a multi-generational 3-some is still treated as "Not Blah". Also, when there are children involved, the "Blah" factor changes depending on the sins v. the children (age, gender, etc.)
Maybe times are starting to change a little. She has been blessed with a really supportive manager and the guys in the metal shops are starting to figure out she ALWAYS knows what she is talking about and almost never makes mistakes.
Since most issues arise from the choice between "Make it fit" vs "Recheck the computer models" they tend to look dumb on a regular basis.
TARP me
Yeah!, come on, come on, come on, come on
Now TARP me, baby
Cant you see that I am not afraid?
What was that promise that Ben made?
Why won't you tell me what Tim said?
What was that promise that you made?
Now, I'm gonna Arb you, till the heavens stop the rain
I'm gonna Arb you
Till the stars fall from the SPY for you and I
Come on, come on, come on, come on
Now TARP me, baby
Cant you see that I am not afraid?
What was that promise that Ben made?
Why won't you tell me what Tim said?
What was that promise that you made?
Im gonna Arb you, till the heavens stop the rain
Im gonna Arb you
Till the stars fall from the SPY for you and I
Im gonna Arb you, till the heavens stop the rain
Im gonna Arb you
Till the stars fall from the SPY for you and I
" broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:48 pm
you lose on the other half of the equation.
The male or the female side?"
The alimony side...
the "guilty" spouse participating in a multi-generational 3-some is still treated as "Not Blah"
Errr, yagij, what.... city are you in?
So, why no news on CIT yet? Customers have to be maxing out their credit lines at this point, with all the speculation...
My friend is going thru a messy divorce. He just got out of the Navy and is refusing to look for a job until the divorce settles. That way, his income is skewed down when the alimony is calculated. Hard to get a lot from income derived from unemployment benefits.
That's why I used the term "pure libertarianism".
How is that different from anarchy?
I consider myself more of a libertarian today, not because I don't want government and law, but only because I think perhaps the government has gone a bit too far in trying to control things it doesn't have the ability to control.
I'd like to think if the government were letting people starve on the streets left and right I'd have the sense to be more of a modern liberal.
I think a rational person defines their political positions relative to the current status quo.
(BTW, I'm assuming above that the people aren't starving because they deserve to.)
Dryfly: With "just in time" inventory, who holds the buffer stocks? Who bears the cost if the supply room is bare so the factory has to close for want of a part or the merchant loses a sale for want of an item?
Previously, you have written about how the supply chain is under severe financial stress and might not have the resources to fund the ramp-up of production, if demand returns.
When does JIT inventory morph from being prudent working capital management to being penny-wise, pound-foolish suicide?
Really good questions - those are the heart of the issues...
1) In JIT who holds inventory? Ideally inventory isn't created... a demand for consumption is 'recognized' and a unit of consumption is then simultaneously created for said demand. In service industry this is EXACTLY how it is done [you create a haircut when you sit down in front of a barber - they can't be inventoried].
What is inventoried in such a situation is CAPACITY... you either have excess capacity OR accept lost sales or wait for capacity to open up. It is a trade off.
In practice inventory is kept at both the supplier & the customer... the art is to minimize inventory as much as is practically possible, discuss both estimate of demand & capacity to meet it and to try to balance the risks. We do this everyday - some days we win, some days we lose.
In general the more generic the product the lower the risk to inventory... special make to order applications are very high risk to inventory. Most stuff is somewhere in between.
2) Is the current capacity of the supply chain healthy enough to weather this down turn? Is there sufficient healthy capacity to manage the eventual recovery. Don't know. I personally doubt it. I think price inflation will 'fund' and at the same time ration the recovery. Price rationing has always damped recoveries though so nothing new there. The question is how severe has the damage been - we won't know until the up tick.
Errr, yagij, what.... city are you in?
Why? Would Father & Son performing coitous on tape with Father's current wife (not son's mother) be considered normal nowadays or exotic?
In Family Law, that line was blurred eons ago, and I can sometimes forget that the rest of the world functions in a "sane" reality.
" yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 12:51 pm
Down here, we have no fault too, but when splitting up assets, it starts in the 50%/50% area and is moved on a sliding scale depending on negotiations, earnings, financial faults (e.g. willingly under-employed), etc. Adultery isn't treated as a "fault" per se, but it can influence what each side will and will not accept."
Ours starts out like that, but the real screwing begins under the guise of "taking into consideration the interests of the child". OTOH, guys do sometimes get the kids, but if it's court mandated, it's usually due to a substance abuse problem or like.
Just curious; where is "down here"?
We need a divorce Czar!
I think a rational person defines their political positions relative to the current status quo.
i think we are all independent based on the present
My take on divorce is its all yours honey....take care now, make it work.
But I am happily married 25 years, notice how I said happy, ya we tend to think at times we are not the normal ones, then a friend will stop by who is divorced ( many ) and we look at each other and say Na we are the normal ones.
Living Debt free and not giving a shit helps.
How is that different from anarchy?
It's not.
I debated with those guys for years, they hate me.
Ha ha ha.
"
shill (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 1:02 pm
My take on divorce is its all yours honey....take care now, make it work.
But I am happily married 25 years, notice how I said happy, ya we tend to think at times we are not the normal ones, then a friend will stop by who is divorced ( many ) and we look at each other and say Na we are the normal ones.
Living Debt free and not giving a shit helps."
Hmmm....and here I thought the trick was anti-depressants and Internet porn
BTW, 23 years for me-
Just curious; where is "down here"?
1) IANAL, but I work at a law firm so do not take anything I say as any kind of legal advice.
2) South of the Mason-Dixon line. I'd be more specific, but some people might confuse "fact patterns" with actual cases.
3) See Point #1.
The Mortgage Pig (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/14/2009 - 1:03 pm
THANK GLOD!
Gov't out of marriage business? About time.
Gov't should recognize "civil unions" with certain rights and responsibilities for all couples -- the same that marrieds have now. Churches can "marry you in the eyes of God;" but that's outside the civil equation.
It's stupid that a certain type of contract honored by society -- a particular package of rights and responsibilities -- can only be exercised between a man and a woman. From a legal standpoint, i suspect that many lawyers would agree.
Hmmm....and here I thought the trick was anti-depressants and Internet porn Wink
BTW, 23 years for me-
Hahaha ya the porn helps for the first 15 minutes anyway, after that, ehh! honey put Family Guy back on. lol.
Computers tend to be job killers in most fields. Blockbuster (50k employees) begets NetFlix (5000 employees) which begets Redbox (1900 employees for it and its parent company Coinstar)
When they don't kill your job they force you to compete with people who are willing/able to work for much less than you.
And as for Amazon and iTunes -- well how many bookstore and record store jobs were lost because of them?