Yes, all the credit indicators read "green" in the new economy - the one backed by the full faith and credit of the United States Government. just don't ask how its credit indicators are trending.
The new stock market is simply watching what Goldman Sachs does. What sectors are they long in. What are their day-to-day trades. And then follow. Market manipulation begets more market manipulation.
There isn't a more powerful or productive move the Obama administration can make than breaking up GS.
With everyone and their grandma printing their own money(I'm looking at you California)...
I am going to be stringing together rounded balls of my fecal matter(we_will_not_monetize_brandX_premium_wompum) and presenting it to my landlord next month come the 1st.
Angry Saver - I'm no Obamaphile, but at least he's putting the war spending in the budget. It was only "off" the budget and the budget deficit in the Bush years.
Mish says housing market will bottom in 7 years. He's of course talking about prices and not starts. The country simply cannot take another 7 years of falling house prices. This is the end.
I remember at the height of Bush bashing, a story came out that W had purchased some land down in Uruguay or was it Paraguay, can't remember...anyway the gist was that the Bush family was buying up lots of land over a water source, and that W planned on fleeing the country to escape possible war crime charges. I wonder what stories we will be hearing about Obama in a few years?
"I remember at the height of Bush bashing, a story came out that W had purchased some land down in Uruguay or was it Paraguay, can't remember...anyway the gist was that the Bush family was buying up lots of land over a water source..."
==========================
If this story is accurate, it would be the only wise decision he made during our Section 8 Years.
JD, I agree with you on that one. It is amazing how programmed people are. Honestly, a person can say one thing one week, and by the next week say the complete opposite, and believe they have always felt that way....it is scary. Of course I do it all the time but I have an excuse...both my hemispheres have distinct opinions about certain topics. I can actually hold two completely contradictory points of view at the same time. Drives my wife crazy, but what can I say, I am weird that way.
I know it. You are bored. You need a doom fix. It is just too darn green in your world. Well, visit my alternative reality...
Night had us all gather outside the trailer that night after dinner for the unveiling of her new "Command Center." I did not know what to expect. I knew she had sent Tommy on a couple of "mystery missions." I was hoping they had involved hot oil and candles, but it was looking like another dream of mine had been shattered. "Such is life" I thought.
What is all the problems with my babe Whitney- she is right!
Nothign like pointing out a short term top to get the bear blogosphere all riled up.
Denninger is inane. She makes the obvious point GS is making the markets and cashing in big on the fact that nobody else is left standing.
Well, DuH!!
She also has an unemployment rate of 13% friggin percent in the future!!! Um, and folks think she is bullish?!?!
I listened to her this morning, watch the market pop the futures, and said- what a bunch of maroons!!! Anything scrape a buck today!
As for our future problems, well they might be able to get a flu vaccine in place by late fall, saving our bacon- but the rest of the world looks to be s.o.l.
These two charts presage the heaviest concentrations of mortality- places with large numbers of immune compromised people:
Just in case anyone missed the Mauldin letter with the discussion of the Themis white paper, it's up on Minyanville now.
"All this "algo" (algorithmic) trading also gives a very false impression of volume. If you're a fund and see 10 million shares a day traded, you might feel comfortable holding one million shares and exit your trade easily. But if 80% of the volume is false algo trading, that volume isn't really there. You may have a position that will be difficult to exit, and not even know it."
"Th Fed will own a lot of shares as Pensions sell to write checks ... "
Actually, the Fed will own not much at all, they are buying and selling spoos.
Individuals will own a lot of overpriced shares through their 401ks, as they blindly "dollar cost average" into the market via contributions every paycheck.
One thing that Meredith Whitney always talks about is earnings power that is the ability for the business model to make money.
Look at what she mentions as ways GS will make money is by selling sovereign and US gov't debt and the elimination of Bear and Leh as competitors. This is just moving money around. She mentioned nothing of any macro improvements.
In case any of you haven't figured it out yet, the Fed target level on the S&P500 is 900. - GFI
Yep. Massive market manipulation. Fed forces things up, the herd thinks "maybe 'they' know something I don't" and begins to follow out of paranoia. The lemmings on the back end don't realize the front runners have no clue at all.
national TV money barely covers player salaries and stadium revenue has to cover all overhead and make a profit(exceptthe NHL where this is reversed)
half the NBA is losing money, about the same in Hockey. The only reason MLB is in better shape is that many teams do the revenue sharing as an arb. The NFL is as close to bulletproof as it gets and they're looking to kill the golden goose.
The idea in sport has been billionaires sniffing some jocks, taking a bit of a loss against other income, then flipping it for what you were into it(I can't remember how the tax treatment went exactly)
in a world with free money, this could go on forever. No more free money
WHO: Swine flu "unstoppable"
The World Health Organization says the swine flu pandemic has grown "unstoppable" and all nations will need access to vaccines; while most cases have been considered mild, a study released today said the virus causes more lung damage than ordinary seasonal flu strains
Swine flu
Swine flu vaccine strains grow very slowly, delaying vaccine production
The fastest-growing of all the wine flu vaccine strains tested so far grows only half as fast as ordinary vaccine viruses; if the current pandemic behaves like the last H1N1 pandemic in 1918, the next, possibly worse waves of infection could be long over by the time vaccine contracts are filled
Not suggesting this is true, just want to run it up the flagpole and see what people think about it....one of the kook sites is talking about the 'possibility' of mandatory vaccinations in UK if they get the vaccine in time....what do you guys feel about mandatory vaccinations especially when the lethality of this flu is still being determined?
"Fed forces things up, the herd thinks "maybe 'they' know something I don't" and begins to follow out of paranoia. "
And then...
The rally sputters, people start actually talking about fundamentals, unemployment, what will the economy look like getting out of this, etc., so stock sell off, dipping a bit below 900 which conveniently happens just as the Treasury is about to sell massive amounts of debt.
Debt gets sold, all of a sudden stocks mysteriously start to rise, across the board (not that just about the only stock down today was CIT).
A lot of money is washing around in crazy directions. The question is...which trends will last and which won't?
Gold, silver, food and short Treasuries all made sharp moves up today, mostly in the p.m. I think these trends have legs. You might look back on today as the start of something.
Stocks won't last. They are more overvalued relative to earnings and other fundamentals today than a year ago. To actually get to the 12-15 P/Es that everybody talks about would take one of the all-time V-shaped recoveries, starting several months ago.
Stocks can't be propped up with false fundamentals as long as you think.
Today was a mini rally within a bearish leg of a historic bear market. They happen, especially with all the govt. intervention now.
Oddly I've heard that same reasoning for sox 1000, 800 and 700. Didn't hold too well before and I doubt it will this time. Unless you believe the FEd is all powerful which hasn't proved to be the case yet.
"Presently, Social Security collects more in taxes than it pays in benefits. The excess is loaned to the U.S. Treasury, which in turn issues special-issue Treasury bonds to Social Security."
I wonder how much less the Treasury is getting, with employment down? And I wonder why people aren't pissed off that the trust fund is being skimmed right off the top?
What I can tell you is that the vaccine may be necessary to prevent large scale deaths.
As for the black helicopter crowd, well, do without and takes your chances.
I would suggest that you have your Neptune Society Membership paid up in full if you don't do vaccines.
As someone who had a severe childhood alergy to eggs, well, it is a risk I will weigh when the time comes.
But most of you will have no reason to hesitate.
What folks are missing is this is not just about the US anymore, the epidemic in Argentina is a fine example of the first wave of this strain causing problems. With widespread exposure comes the danger from recombination with a not so lethal strain into something very lethal. Plus, as I posted above, immunocompromise is a death sentence for people exposed to this flu.
" Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 4:55 pm
It's hard to say what the dollar will lose value against, but it will."
Let's assume that the money supply remains constant and that the number of outstanding shares in the DJIA remains constant. If the DJIA goes to $10k, and the value of money is based on what you can buy with it, then the dollar will have lost value against the DJIA.
.......no?
"Oddly I've heard that same reasoning for sox 1000, 800 and 700. Didn't hold too well before and I doubt it will this time."
The S&P first broke 900 this go around on 10/10/08. Today, fully 9 months later, it is at the exact same level, and has been in a range of 800 - 1000 except for one day in Nov, and the Feb-Mar time frame, both events probably precipitated by massive hedge fund liquidation.
Since April, the range has gotten even tighter.
Not saying it will hold, but they are going to try. It's all about buying time.
From an individual standpoint...not talking about the good of the many--just myself. I hate vaccinations. I am a rare fish. Medically speaking the norms for the majority of the population don't apply to me...so anything being developed for the good of the many scares me as an individual because I have different reactions. My father is the same way. I don't know how he put up with army physicals each year, the docs almost killed him more than once, because he had an unusual reaction to something. I just get worried about mandatory solutions for medical situations because not everyone is the same. Case in point, thankfully not my children, but one of our friend's daughter had a terrible reaction to her first set of immunizations. Her skin actually turned translucent and she was in ICU for the weekend. You just never know...now from a good of the many standpoint...I understand the need to protect the population...just a hard line to follow.
That is the story Youshouldknowed, but I haven't seen any follow ups on it. I know W isn't spending a lot of time at his ranch in Crawford like he said he would, but I don't think he has left for the sunny southern hemisphere yet.
"Look at what she mentions as ways GS will make money is by selling sovereign and US gov't debt and the elimination of Bear and Leh as competitors."
How much of Bear and LEH profit was MBS and MBS derivatives, and how much was regular banking? How much profit is left for GS to go after? I guess there could be some money in facilitating buyouts and consolidations, but I have not seen much of that from GS lately. What happens when, at some future date, the off book assets have to be fairly valued?
It still seems to me that the latest rally is primarily off earnings shenanigans of the demise of mark to market. What are the limits of mark to make believe?
The rally sputters, people start actually talking about fundamentals, unemployment, what will the economy look like getting out of this... GFI
Why would day traders give a damn about fundamentals, ever? The markets have been completely disconnected from reality, for some time now. It's a casino, not an information processing machine. And as a casino, it can be very profitably manipulated. Why should a 'day of reckoning' ever come about, when the addicted gamblers can't help but come back to the game, even if they know it's rigged?
The Bush/Paraguay "theory" is rubbish; a daughter went down there on a goodwill kick and as usual 2+2=5
even the regional governor couldn't find anything in title registries that would be remotely related to yank ownership, let alone atbusto who's too ganked out to even speak kitchen Spanish
JD - And when the next TV contract comes up, whenever that is, it will be a factor. But don't think if one network won't pay the price that another won't step in. Several years ago NBC didn't want to pay the freight and regretted it terribly. They couldn't wait to pony up BIG to get back in the game. Our fixation with sports is only growing. These TV contracts will only get richer for the sports that matter - I don't count NBA and NHL as players. We're a baseball and football country and the owners are doing just fine.
Besides, if you're unemployed you're going to watch sports and drink beer.
yes, baseball skews old, basketball young. that's about the only meaningful deviation. anecdotally, some of the ethnic demographics skew towards particular teams, e.g., the dodgers have a strong latino following, padres and giants, not so much.
your local team, of course, has a strong following amongst the few dozen people who bet the season under. they should beat that by at least a dozen games.
Your thinking is because sports did well during the great depression, they'll do well now theory doesn't take into account how dissatisfied people are going to be with those of the blingy persuasion, which is every professional athlete.
Pro athletes made pennies in the 1930's, compared to today.
Man this makes me angry...anyone catch the Reuters story about Obama saying we have a long way to go in Afghanistan....how is this any different from W's releases about Iraq? The Old King is dead, long live the King! Honestly, can we get a legitimate 3rd party going...
"Pro athletes made pennies in the 1930's, compared to today. "
that line only comes from folks who know nothing about the actual economic structure of sports, and how very few get to the highest visible level (and how briefly they stay there, in the case of the NFL especially).
The following is from the CBO. It shows their 2010 budget projections for 10yr average yields from 2009 t0 2019. If mortgages follow historical norms of 10yr + 1.9%, housing is in for a world of hurt. These projections make no sense with the housing/mortgage market. Something will have to give. Or the fed will become the mortgage market.
Nominating for Best Chart Porn Ever-- an animated chart showing the rise and fall of house prices, against median income, from 1987, in the Case Shiller cities:
@Vonbek I remember at the height of Bush bashing, a story came out that W had purchased some land down in Uruguay or was it Paraguay, can't remember...anyway the gist was that the Bush family was buying up lots of land over a water source, and that W planned on fleeing the country to escape possible war crime charges. I wonder what stories we will be hearing about Obama in a few years?
Oho, that story isn't over yet. Give it a while...Holder seems to be digging, even if it is giving Obama heartburn. O sure isn't falling all over himself to give up some of that freshly-minted-Cheney-executive-authority.
"Nice dodge there, but we were talking about the 1%'ers... "
not a dodge at all... that is utter sh*thead logic. do you like it when folks from other parts of the world assume that every american makes a million dollars a year? no. that's stupid. you don't see the busted knees and shoulders that waste 15 years of workouts, camps, and blown off classes. you don't see the kid that gets a callup for just a week and gets sent down, with zero savings to show for it (and likely lots of debt from eating crappy food in AAA towns). you don't see the nfl "star" who does the average two years, maybe brings home 600K for his total career earnings after taxes, and the agent, which becomes less than nothing after the entourage cashes in and has nothing but a totally wrecked body and 60-year lifespan to show for it.
you just see a few hundred multi-millionaires. maybe if you had some kind of extraordinary talent yourself and dealt with the process of seeing it commoditized, you would have a slightly more accurate take on the subject.
Even without the recombinant possibilities, the sheer numbers of folks who will need medical attention can overwhelm the medical service delivery system which would result in a dramatic deterioration in outcomes...
I am doing a little research and discovering what I believe to be more SFR with a trustee sale in the works than there are for sale on MLS. This is still the kick-the-can-down-the-road phase - waiting for the sucker administration to bail everyone out.
" HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 5:35 pm
, maybe brings home 600K for his total career earnings after taxes, and the agent, which becomes less than nothing after the entourage cashes in and has nothing but a totally wrecked body and 60-year lifespan to show for it."
FWIW, I've heard that linemen average under 50 years.
"FWIW, I've heard that linemen average under 50 years. "
there was an article in the nytimes a year or two ago that had pictures of 60s/70s nfl vets - the guys are more or less vegetables now. football is a disgusting, violent sport. there's a reason that every other one of our major sports makes big money overseas while the nfl stays at home. it's like our outsized prison population in more ways than one, a disgusting uniquely american institution.
tim: don't know what i was thinking, except that the stock started flying AH.
I've heard that linemen average under 50 years.
The NFL is by far the richest league, and the players with the shortest careers. Yet, it has the weakest players unions and treats its retirees like crap.
The only league that treats its players worse is the NCAA. I may be the only one cheering the new development of high school players jumping to Europe.
I think there is going to be a resurgence of headbangers soon. Not for the music, just from the news. I mean it is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. You know it is coming, but you can't look away. I have to keep myself from banging my head on my desk daily now. Too big to fail.....mantra for the decade.
" Citizen AllenM (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 5:02 pm
Plus, as I posted above, immunocompromise is a death sentence for people exposed to this flu. "
Interesting; the 1918 flu pandemic was, if I've read correctly, actually easier on the immune-compromised. Presumably it hit those in the prime of their life hard because their immune systems reacted so virulently that the patients actually drowned in their own fluids. I've been keeping extra doses of prednisone around since the SARs outbreaks, hoping it might help provide relief should that sort of thing happen again.
" JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 5:49 pm
It would be a REALLY good time to break with the past and wipe out the parties according to old-fashioned capital structure rules."
I presume you mean the recent past. In any event, I suspect that it has more to do with campaign receipts than practical finance.
Dad played college football for a small university in the 70s. Has a bowl ring. Even after Ranger school, airborne school, and breaking an ankle and suffering frostbite in Alaska, the injuries that pain him the most today are football related. Both shoulders shot, knees in real bad shape, and has a dislocated thumb injury that never healed properly. I never understood why my dad didn't push football on me...big family thing on his side, another uncle made it to the NFL. I played two season, junior varsity, hated it. I understand now. Now that I am older, I like to watch the game for the strategy and the talent, but it is a modern gladiator's ring. I understand why some people love the game, but make no mistake you sacrifice your body to play the game.
"US Discussing FDIC debt backing for CIT Group" says my Bloomberg.
Duh, isn't that what the whole issue was about? Of course they are discussing it.
Why not, though, it is just a "guarantee", that doesn't cost anything, does it? Just like the implicit guarantee Fannie and Freddie had for all those years, those never cost anything, did they?
Let's face it - failure is no longer allowed in America as long as you are big enough and politically connected enough.
I chortle when I hear one of my Brazilian friends talking about how tough Rinaldo is, how American football is for pussies with the pads and all.
I tell them... Rinaldo is built to run and pass the ball for 90+ minutes. He barely has any upper body. If he goes head to head with Julius Peppers, it doesn't matter how much padding he's wearing - he's going to be seriously injured.
So with all these bailouts....and our huge welfare system....how many people can we estimate are on the government's payroll system? a rough estimate, anybody?
Banks
auto
insurance
investment brokers
semi-financials
welfare
federal
state
local
social security
prison system
contractors working solely with state/federal
60s/70s nfl vets - the guys are more or less vegetables now.
1st rule of the NFL after retirement is shed the weight; the human body isn't designed to carry that much weight. Type II diabetes, accelerated joint failure are in their future even without the beatings they took.
There's a reason why the NFL pensions are 2 tiered; little payouts if taken @ 40, monster payouts if taken @ 50. Guys who take it at 40 usually don't make it to 50.
NHL players used to not spend a nickel and live on their road PDs until their 400th game(when their pension would kick in), then live upper middle class lifestyle, though it's changed a bit.
"It's like saying that people who wait tables in LA are professional actors."
it is very much like that. many folks in LA get a few commercials, maybe one or two a year, and maybe get a few spots on a tv show or bit part in a movie every year or two. the TV residuals often barely pay the rent but nothing more. but they are often just as dedicated to the craft as the celebrities who hit it big. same with the guys who grind out AAA ball for 30 grand a year, or whatever it is.
and it is the same end of the road in your mid 30s - the pretty face that got the odd disney show and phone commercial gets less calls, the second baseman drifts down from AAA to AA, etc. but they are professionals, and their peak window to make money is often very small.
When my dad was in the Sinai in the early 80s, there were some Aussies who were big into rugby...said American football was for pussies. Dad played one weekend, he wasn't invited back. Seemed he played a little bit too rough.
Last I heard, Laura Bush insisted on something more civilized than the ranch in Crawford so they have a nice place in Dallas not Paraguay or whatever that rumor was.
"Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 5:53 pm
Now that I am older, I like to watch the game for the strategy and the talent, but it is a modern gladiator's ring. I understand why some people love the game, but make no mistake you sacrifice your body to play the game."
I see that you "get" the game. My wife (from the Far East) is baffled at my enjoyment of the game, and of course, when I tell here that is such a "mental" sport, and it's like a game of chess, she just rolls her eyes and shakes her head. I for one don't get soccer; it's just a bunch of guys running from one end of the field to the other. There's no trying to catch the team in a particular defense to spring a trick/big play on them. Just a lot of running around.
It seems to me that soccer relies on superior talent, whereas in football, superior planning and teamwork can beat superior talent at a few of the skill positions. Guys like Archie Manning had little success in the NFL because they could never get a team to coalesce around them, despite the fact that for nearly 20 years, it seemed like half the pro bowlers in the NFL had done a stint in New Orleans.
Just my opinion...
I've probably been to 20 Major League Baseball games since that season in 1988, as I lost interest in looking inside the box and started looking outside of it...
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 3:01 pm
When my dad was in the Sinai in the early 80s, there were some Aussies who were big into rugby...said American football was for pussies. Dad played one weekend, he wasn't invited back. Seemed he played a little bit too rough.
quite true. The thing is if he played rugby at football speed he wouldn't last a month due to injury. I used to play in sevens tournament with the entire squad being football players; the bad teams we'd play a rugby style of tackling, against good teams we'd knock their dicks in the dirt and they would be afraid of the ball. We really picked our spots to up the hitting because we'dve wound up with broken collarbones.
Johnny wilkinson is a textbook example of what happens when you play too hard.
None of you were short financials, were you?
It's Nemo!
Thank glod. This is a good post. A happy post. A green post filled with hope!
The market loves Sotomayor.
The only indicator that matters is Goldman Sachs's earnings.
Because you don't need a real economy as long as your financial sector is earning record profits. Obviously.
Go long Whitney or go home.
CR: There has been improvement in the A2P2 spread. This has declined to 0.31.
Why is decline of risk premium an "improvement" when low risk premium (underpriced risk) caused the credit bubble?
Nemo - That was so 07...Ifin you want to short dig into CITs customer list....
UST 2 yr. hit .88 this am. woho lets discuss the value of money
Budget deficit tops $1 trillion and we are only nine months into the fiscal year.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Oh, and don't forget, the budget deficit doesn't included hundreds of billions in "off" budget spending such as war funding.
Let the ponzi debt growth CONtinue.
From last thread:
Obama is Ostrovky's grandmother playing baccarat.
Yessiree, that patient on the heart/lung machine sure has regular pulse and respirations...
Very graphic...
Monument Valleys
Crisis over.
Yes, all the credit indicators read "green" in the new economy - the one backed by the full faith and credit of the United States Government. just don't ask how its credit indicators are trending.
You can always tell when people that play 3-Letter-Monte are losing money...
RockyR - I'm bet'n some folks were just shooting to get out of positions. Its earning week and right before vacation days. Time to turn to cash.
The markets ?
Very light volume ... very light ...
CR - A new indicator: US federal debt per US household.
Count da penny's from last thread...
I haven't seen any new Abes either.
mmckinl,
Ignore the volume and all the other punter metrics. It's the debt levels and the valuations that matter - both scare me shootless
No new Lincoln pennies spotted in my area.
The new stock market is simply watching what Goldman Sachs does. What sectors are they long in. What are their day-to-day trades. And then follow. Market manipulation begets more market manipulation.
There isn't a more powerful or productive move the Obama administration can make than breaking up GS.
With everyone and their grandma printing their own money(I'm looking at you California)...
I am going to be stringing together rounded balls of my fecal matter(we_will_not_monetize_brandX_premium_wompum) and presenting it to my landlord next month come the 1st.
Some claim Whitney has monument valleys.
Good post by Mish
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Housing Update - How Far To The Bottom?
Angry Saver
"Ignore the volume and all the other punter metrics. It's the debt levels and the valuations that matter - both scare me shootless"
~~~~
Volume is only a very short term indicator ... This rally had no money behind it ...
I agree 100% with your metrics ...
Without de-leveraging this economy will bemired in a debt trap ...
Angry Saver - I'm no Obamaphile, but at least he's putting the war spending in the budget. It was only "off" the budget and the budget deficit in the Bush years.
when the economy finally crashes, will people blame bush or obama? or both? whose house will the mob trample first?
Seeing a lot of losses being posted up...nice pump job Timmay.
Without de-leveraging this economy will bemired in a debt trap ...
While the overall economy will be weak and most people will be poorer, there will definitely be winners along the way. Work the system.
I blame them all.
will people blame bush or obama?
They'll blame the guy with the slightly nicer stuff next door.
Mish says housing market will bottom in 7 years. He's of course talking about prices and not starts. The country simply cannot take another 7 years of falling house prices. This is the end.
I remember at the height of Bush bashing, a story came out that W had purchased some land down in Uruguay or was it Paraguay, can't remember...anyway the gist was that the Bush family was buying up lots of land over a water source, and that W planned on fleeing the country to escape possible war crime charges. I wonder what stories we will be hearing about Obama in a few years?
"While the overall economy will be weak and most people will be poorer, there will definitely be winners along the way. Work the system."
~~~~
I'm not a trader, I'm an investor ....
I see no compelling long term value anywhere yet ...
Just waiting in short term debt until the fall This Fall ...
I'm fairly convinced the average person can only think in length of a fortnight, what happened last week and what might happen next week.
"The country simply cannot take another 7 years of falling house prices. "
~~~~~
It will have to ...
Minor point: Doug's chart at the top of the post is from 7/10. His site says he will update later. He's also got some more S & P chartage there.
dshort.com - Financial Life Cycle Planning
"I remember at the height of Bush bashing, a story came out that W had purchased some land down in Uruguay or was it Paraguay, can't remember...anyway the gist was that the Bush family was buying up lots of land over a water source..."
==========================
If this story is accurate, it would be the only wise decision he made during our Section 8 Years.
On sports and nation declines
The similarity between UFC bloodsports and Ancient Gladiator games is truly surreal
JD, I agree with you on that one. It is amazing how programmed people are. Honestly, a person can say one thing one week, and by the next week say the complete opposite, and believe they have always felt that way....it is scary. Of course I do it all the time but I have an excuse...both my hemispheres have distinct opinions about certain topics. I can actually hold two completely contradictory points of view at the same time. Drives my wife crazy, but what can I say, I am weird that way.
I'm not a trader, I'm an investor ....
I see no compelling long term value anywhere yet ...
This is why I started trading a few years back - I didn't see any compelling investment value in the near future.
I would have been happy continuing to merely "invest" but that requires some optimism about the state of the economy that I just don't have anymore.
I know it. You are bored. You need a doom fix. It is just too darn green in your world. Well, visit my alternative reality...
Night had us all gather outside the trailer that night after dinner for the unveiling of her new "Command Center." I did not know what to expect. I knew she had sent Tommy on a couple of "mystery missions." I was hoping they had involved hot oil and candles, but it was looking like another dream of mine had been shattered. "Such is life" I thought.
American Apocalypse
What is all the problems with my babe Whitney- she is right!
Nothign like pointing out a short term top to get the bear blogosphere all riled up.
Denninger is inane. She makes the obvious point GS is making the markets and cashing in big on the fact that nobody else is left standing.
Well, DuH!!
She also has an unemployment rate of 13% friggin percent in the future!!! Um, and folks think she is bullish?!?!
I listened to her this morning, watch the market pop the futures, and said- what a bunch of maroons!!! Anything scrape a buck today!
As for our future problems, well they might be able to get a flu vaccine in place by late fall, saving our bacon- but the rest of the world looks to be s.o.l.
These two charts presage the heaviest concentrations of mortality- places with large numbers of immune compromised people:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tuberculosis_reported_cases_2006.PNG
and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HIV_Epidem.png
Mortality in those places will be much greater than here or Mexico, combined with crappy medical infrastructure.
Just saying, this is going to be a lot worse before it get better.
As for falling house prices, Mish once again assumes that we have a hard currency and will not print in quantity.
I say we print, and do even more so than we already have.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Stock prices lost 90% of their value @ the depth the great depression, but ours are going up instead.
Does this portend that the dollar will lose 90% of it's value @ the depth?
I would have been happy continuing to merely "invest" but that requires some optimism about the state of the economy that I just don't have anymore.
+1 Show me a compelling case for something long term outside gold which is a hedge and I'm there. I don't see anything just overpriced assets
Madoff on the move...
Madoff on Move to Federal Prison in N.C. - CBS News
Which posters live in NC?
"I would have been happy continuing to merely "invest" but that requires some optimism about the state of the economy that I just don't have anymore."
~~~~
The economy isn't the problem when it comes to investing ...
It's the whipsawing of the markets by the computer trading ...
One just has to time the acquisition of value and hold on through the gyrations ...
Right now I see no extreme bargains to take a ride on ...
I like dividends to pay me while I wait ...
Madoff looks an awful lot like the crooked warden in the Shawshank Redemption.
"She also has an unemployment rate of 13% friggin percent in the future!!! Um, and folks think she is bullish?!?!"
~~~~
Whitney sees our new economy ...
A third world economy ... the rich do just fine while the bottom 2/3 take it in the teeth ...
" Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 4:38 pm
Stock prices lost 90% of their value @ the depth the great depression, but ours are going up instead.
Does this portend that the dollar will lose 90% of it's value @ the depth?"
It might be interesting to see how the market prices have changed as a percentage of the money supply.
Juvenal Delinquent
"Stock prices lost 90% of their value @ the depth the great depression, but ours are going up instead."
~~~~
Early days ...
I don't see 90% ... but a least a retest ... but maybe not even this year ...
In case any of you haven't figured it out yet, the Fed target level on the S&P500 is 900.
That is what the Fed does - sets target prices, and buys and sells in the market to maintain those prices.
Just in case anyone missed the Mauldin letter with the discussion of the Themis white paper, it's up on Minyanville now.
"All this "algo" (algorithmic) trading also gives a very false impression of volume. If you're a fund and see 10 million shares a day traded, you might feel comfortable holding one million shares and exit your trade easily. But if 80% of the volume is false algo trading, that volume isn't really there. You may have a position that will be difficult to exit, and not even know it."
Linked Here
I guess we could join the dolphins....
So long and thanks for all the fish...
"That is what the Fed does - sets target prices, and buys and sells in the market to maintain those prices."
~~~
Th Fed will own a lot of shares as Pensions sell to write checks ...
So far, the long arm of the law has convicted Martha & Madoff...
That's how pathetic the SEC is.
This was a particularly bad day for CIT - a lot of speculation going into today that just the chance of CIT's demise would rock the markets.
instead, they went up 2%, on no real news of a govt bailout for CIT.
As we all know, T3 is notorious for looking at the market for policy direction.
Does not bode well for CIT.
Most of the hoi ploy has a strict Don't Ask Don't Sell policy.
Stock prices lost 90% of their value @ the depth the great depression, but ours are going up instead.
Does this portend that the dollar will lose 90% of it's value @ the depth?
I'm in the deflationist camp for now, but I do remember the German stock market did very well in 1921 and 1922, leading into the Weimar inflation.
Something has to give...eventually.
"Does not bode well for CIT. "
S&P just downgraded them to CCC
"Th Fed will own a lot of shares as Pensions sell to write checks ... "
Actually, the Fed will own not much at all, they are buying and selling spoos.
Individuals will own a lot of overpriced shares through their 401ks, as they blindly "dollar cost average" into the market via contributions every paycheck.
One thing that Meredith Whitney always talks about is earnings power that is the ability for the business model to make money.
Look at what she mentions as ways GS will make money is by selling sovereign and US gov't debt and the elimination of Bear and Leh as competitors. This is just moving money around. She mentioned nothing of any macro improvements.
"The country simply cannot take another 7 years of falling house prices."
Why not? We has 7 years of rising prices, why should we not expect the same on the downside, and perhaps a little over-correction?
sm_landlord
Excellent post .... Yep, several guests on Bloomberg have explained this
ghost trading and lack of real liquidity in the markets ...
Many people here have been talking about a pandemic ...
That would blow a hole right through all this noise ...
It's not often the word earnings is synonymous with starvation, but there you have it.
OT: Here's something I'd have never expected to hear from R. Samuelson...
RealClearMarkets - The Consequences of Big Government
In case any of you haven't figured it out yet, the Fed target level on the S&P500 is 900. - GFI
Yep. Massive market manipulation. Fed forces things up, the herd thinks "maybe 'they' know something I don't" and begins to follow out of paranoia. The lemmings on the back end don't realize the front runners have no clue at all.
Re: sports business
national TV money barely covers player salaries and stadium revenue has to cover all overhead and make a profit(exceptthe NHL where this is reversed)
half the NBA is losing money, about the same in Hockey. The only reason MLB is in better shape is that many teams do the revenue sharing as an arb. The NFL is as close to bulletproof as it gets and they're looking to kill the golden goose.
The idea in sport has been billionaires sniffing some jocks, taking a bit of a loss against other income, then flipping it for what you were into it(I can't remember how the tax treatment went exactly)
in a world with free money, this could go on forever. No more free money
"Does this portend that the dollar will lose 90% of it's value @ the depth?"
Against what? Other fiat currencies? Unlikely.
Against gold? Already down 25% or so from the stock market peak, around 40% from when the crisis really hit in August 07.
WHO: Swine flu "unstoppable"
The World Health Organization says the swine flu pandemic has grown "unstoppable" and all nations will need access to vaccines; while most cases have been considered mild, a study released today said the virus causes more lung damage than ordinary seasonal flu strains
Swine flu
Swine flu vaccine strains grow very slowly, delaying vaccine production
The fastest-growing of all the wine flu vaccine strains tested so far grows only half as fast as ordinary vaccine viruses; if the current pandemic behaves like the last H1N1 pandemic in 1918, the next, possibly worse waves of infection could be long over by the time vaccine contracts are filled
Not suggesting this is true, just want to run it up the flagpole and see what people think about it....one of the kook sites is talking about the 'possibility' of mandatory vaccinations in UK if they get the vaccine in time....what do you guys feel about mandatory vaccinations especially when the lethality of this flu is still being determined?
The financial sector extracting value from the real economy - vampire banks 'earning' their way out of the hole they dug for themselves...
Samuelson is a hack sell out ...
and that's a compliment ...
It will be mandatory for anyone on active duty
OT: Just another opinion......
History suggests it could be decades before the dollar is dislodged - Telegraph
It's hard to say what the dollar will lose value against, but it will.
"Fed forces things up, the herd thinks "maybe 'they' know something I don't" and begins to follow out of paranoia. "
And then...
The rally sputters, people start actually talking about fundamentals, unemployment, what will the economy look like getting out of this, etc., so stock sell off, dipping a bit below 900 which conveniently happens just as the Treasury is about to sell massive amounts of debt.
Debt gets sold, all of a sudden stocks mysteriously start to rise, across the board (not that just about the only stock down today was CIT).
This is what the Fed does, they control prices.
A lot of money is washing around in crazy directions. The question is...which trends will last and which won't?
Gold, silver, food and short Treasuries all made sharp moves up today, mostly in the p.m. I think these trends have legs. You might look back on today as the start of something.
Stocks won't last. They are more overvalued relative to earnings and other fundamentals today than a year ago. To actually get to the 12-15 P/Es that everybody talks about would take one of the all-time V-shaped recoveries, starting several months ago.
Stocks can't be propped up with false fundamentals as long as you think.
Today was a mini rally within a bearish leg of a historic bear market. They happen, especially with all the govt. intervention now.
IF you are forced to take a vaccine by government then you are no longer a Freeman; you are a slave.
Property.
" HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 4:56 pm
IF you are forced to take a vaccine by government then you are no longer a Freeman; you are a slave.
Property."
Freedom is just an illusion when a population is not willing to fight for it-
"This is what the Fed does, they control prices."
correction, the fed Attempts to control prices
Oddly I've heard that same reasoning for sox 1000, 800 and 700. Didn't hold too well before and I doubt it will this time. Unless you believe the FEd is all powerful which hasn't proved to be the case yet.
"Presently, Social Security collects more in taxes than it pays in benefits. The excess is loaned to the U.S. Treasury, which in turn issues special-issue Treasury bonds to Social Security."
From: http://www.ssa.gov/qa.htm
I wonder how much less the Treasury is getting, with employment down? And I wonder why people aren't pissed off that the trust fund is being skimmed right off the top?
They won't force you. They will scare you into it.
IF you are forced to take a vaccine by government then you are no longer a Freeman; you are a slave.
Property.
If you are slave for being required to get preventative medicine, then just what are you when you are required to perform military service?
a slave.
And I can decide for myself what I do as preventative medicine; thank you.
You are free to decide for yourself.
What I can tell you is that the vaccine may be necessary to prevent large scale deaths.
As for the black helicopter crowd, well, do without and takes your chances.
I would suggest that you have your Neptune Society Membership paid up in full if you don't do vaccines.
As someone who had a severe childhood alergy to eggs, well, it is a risk I will weigh when the time comes.
But most of you will have no reason to hesitate.
What folks are missing is this is not just about the US anymore, the epidemic in Argentina is a fine example of the first wave of this strain causing problems. With widespread exposure comes the danger from recombination with a not so lethal strain into something very lethal. Plus, as I posted above, immunocompromise is a death sentence for people exposed to this flu.
When this site goes dark, then panic: Recombinomics Commentary
Someday this war's gonna end...
Too late nova.
I already died of nuclear war, AIDS, SARS, etc, etc, etc...
Hmmm. Not too big on the color gray?
If it makes me a slave and I get 2 shots will I learn to dance finally?
" Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 4:55 pm
It's hard to say what the dollar will lose value against, but it will."
Let's assume that the money supply remains constant and that the number of outstanding shares in the DJIA remains constant. If the DJIA goes to $10k, and the value of money is based on what you can buy with it, then the dollar will have lost value against the DJIA.
.......no?
Cinco-X
Could be true about the dollar ...
but with the speed of change these days I wouldn't bet on it ...
That's the whole problem ... Traders like GS are manipulating markets
so wildly no one can get a fix on value ... just look at oil ... 147 to the low 40s in a heartbeat ...
"Oddly I've heard that same reasoning for sox 1000, 800 and 700. Didn't hold too well before and I doubt it will this time."
The S&P first broke 900 this go around on 10/10/08. Today, fully 9 months later, it is at the exact same level, and has been in a range of 800 - 1000 except for one day in Nov, and the Feb-Mar time frame, both events probably precipitated by massive hedge fund liquidation.
Since April, the range has gotten even tighter.
Not saying it will hold, but they are going to try. It's all about buying time.
Shall I decide what you eat or drink, JP?
How about how fast you drive or what hobbies you participate in?
From an individual standpoint...not talking about the good of the many--just myself. I hate vaccinations. I am a rare fish. Medically speaking the norms for the majority of the population don't apply to me...so anything being developed for the good of the many scares me as an individual because I have different reactions. My father is the same way. I don't know how he put up with army physicals each year, the docs almost killed him more than once, because he had an unusual reaction to something. I just get worried about mandatory solutions for medical situations because not everyone is the same. Case in point, thankfully not my children, but one of our friend's daughter had a terrible reaction to her first set of immunizations. Her skin actually turned translucent and she was in ICU for the weekend. You just never know...now from a good of the many standpoint...I understand the need to protect the population...just a hard line to follow.
Vonbeck, What do you think of this?
I'm A Pimpin Turtle...: Bush Buys 100,000 Acres on border of Paraguay & Brazil
edit
Shall I decide what you eat or drink, JP?
How about how fast you drive or what hobbies you participate in?
There is black and there is white. That is all.
Juvenal Delinquent
" It's hard to say what the dollar will lose value against, but it will."
~~~~
Most countries are now in a devaluation frenzy ... look at China ...
They are printing by the trainload ...
Maintaining the status quo has never been of more importance to the status quo.
SO is that a yes or a no, JP?
SO is that a yes or a no, JP?
You are making my point.
That is the story Youshouldknowed, but I haven't seen any follow ups on it. I know W isn't spending a lot of time at his ranch in Crawford like he said he would, but I don't think he has left for the sunny southern hemisphere yet.
I guess you're taking the vaccine then, Mr. Grey?
Re: sports business
national TV money barely covers player salaries and stadium revenue has to cover all overhead and make a profit(exceptthe NHL where this is reversed)
----------------------------\
Although a few years old, check this out. The first paragraph under revenue sharing says it all:
Football 101: Revenue Sharing and The Salary Cap
"Look at what she mentions as ways GS will make money is by selling sovereign and US gov't debt and the elimination of Bear and Leh as competitors."
How much of Bear and LEH profit was MBS and MBS derivatives, and how much was regular banking? How much profit is left for GS to go after? I guess there could be some money in facilitating buyouts and consolidations, but I have not seen much of that from GS lately. What happens when, at some future date, the off book assets have to be fairly valued?
It still seems to me that the latest rally is primarily off earnings shenanigans of the demise of mark to market. What are the limits of mark to make believe?
" ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 4:55 pm
This is what the Fed does, they control prices"
I believe you're thinking of the PPT, not the Fed.......or are they one in the same?
I guess you're taking the vaccine then, Mr. Grey?
Ever play with the myers-briggs test? If so, are you 80% S?
Turns out that I was right on the SN border, they call me X.
The rally sputters, people start actually talking about fundamentals, unemployment, what will the economy look like getting out of this... GFI
Why would day traders give a damn about fundamentals, ever? The markets have been completely disconnected from reality, for some time now. It's a casino, not an information processing machine. And as a casino, it can be very profitably manipulated. Why should a 'day of reckoning' ever come about, when the addicted gamblers can't help but come back to the game, even if they know it's rigged?
Sports fans:
Let's connect the dots...
Revenue from tv comes from advertising, and advertising revenues are falling off the cliff.
Meanwhile, that all-field-no-hit wonder of a shortstop has a $24 million 4 year deal.
I wonder what the demographics are for baseball. My guess is a lot of sedan driving. older types.
"Revenue from tv comes from advertising, and advertising revenues are falling off the cliff. "
~~~~
Leagues have multi year contracts ...
GE should have sold NBC just before the Olympics ... oh well ....
Supposedly the Nationals drew 10,000 the other night. More than the number of people watching them on TV
The Bush/Paraguay "theory" is rubbish; a daughter went down there on a goodwill kick and as usual 2+2=5
even the regional governor couldn't find anything in title registries that would be remotely related to yank ownership, let alone atbusto who's too ganked out to even speak kitchen Spanish
They are printing by the trainload ...
They can't be, rail traffic is down.
Thanks for turning me on to that, JP.
Good day.
(Turns out I'm an NF {idealist/ Teacher}).
JD - And when the next TV contract comes up, whenever that is, it will be a factor. But don't think if one network won't pay the price that another won't step in. Several years ago NBC didn't want to pay the freight and regretted it terribly. They couldn't wait to pony up BIG to get back in the game. Our fixation with sports is only growing. These TV contracts will only get richer for the sports that matter - I don't count NBA and NHL as players. We're a baseball and football country and the owners are doing just fine.
Besides, if you're unemployed you're going to watch sports and drink beer.
They won't force you. They will scare you into it.
They forced preschoolers in NJ to get the flu vaccine - or no preschool/daycare.
Some parents oppose New Jersey's new flu vaccination law - CNN.com
False Asunción?
broward
Maybe ... but the auction for Chinese bonds failed ...
print ... print ... print ...
"GE should have sold NBC"
But then who would pimp their stock?
Nearly Half of Americans are Baseball Fans
yes, baseball skews old, basketball young. that's about the only meaningful deviation. anecdotally, some of the ethnic demographics skew towards particular teams, e.g., the dodgers have a strong latino following, padres and giants, not so much.
your local team, of course, has a strong following amongst the few dozen people who bet the season under. they should beat that by at least a dozen games.
" Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 5:19 pm
"GE should have sold NBC"
But then who would pimp their stock?"
Has the makings for a reality TV show. "Pimp-My-Stock"
Perhaps the Donald could preside
"GE should have sold NBC"
But then who would pimp their stock?"
~~~
my mistake ...
joe,
Your thinking is because sports did well during the great depression, they'll do well now theory doesn't take into account how dissatisfied people are going to be with those of the blingy persuasion, which is every professional athlete.
Pro athletes made pennies in the 1930's, compared to today.
"I don't count NBA and NHL as players."
true about NHL, not so with NBA, which does extremely well in some markets and does very well during the playoffs if the star power is there.
also, don't forget, the euros LOVE the nba, much as MLB has a significant following in asia.
Man this makes me angry...anyone catch the Reuters story about Obama saying we have a long way to go in Afghanistan....how is this any different from W's releases about Iraq? The Old King is dead, long live the King! Honestly, can we get a legitimate 3rd party going...
"Pro athletes made pennies in the 1930's, compared to today. "
that line only comes from folks who know nothing about the actual economic structure of sports, and how very few get to the highest visible level (and how briefly they stay there, in the case of the NFL especially).
Not with the Elephants and Asses trampling the Masses...
If pro athletes made so much money in the 1930's, why did most of them have 2nd jobs in the off-season?
"Pro athletes made pennies in the 1930's, compared to today. "
~~~~
Boxers did Ok ... if their managers didn't scam them ...
"why did most of them have 2nd jobs in the off-season? "
why do the 99% of pro athletes who never make it onto a TV-level team currently have 2d jobs?
exactly how many under-40 wash-outs, wannabees, second tier-AAA, AA, A, winter league etc guys do you think there are for every active MLB player?
"why do the 99% of pro athletes who never make it onto a TV-level team currently have 2d jobs?"
Nice dodge there, but we were talking about the 1%'ers...
"Man this makes me angry...anyone catch the Reuters story about Obama saying we have a long way to go in Afghanistan...."
~~~~~
Makes me angry as well .... The Empire Must Be Saved !
Only we are broke ... Obama won't even dish a couple hundred billion to help the states ...
(Turns out I'm an NF {idealist/ Teacher}).
Quite surprising. How strong on the N?
For me: EXTJ. Strong E&T, mild J.
Dead Center on S vs N. The Q's look absolutely random to me, and I just want to answer "It depends" to all of them.
Good for what it's good for. (Brought to you by the tautology dept.)
The following is from the CBO. It shows their 2010 budget projections for 10yr average yields from 2009 t0 2019. If mortgages follow historical norms of 10yr + 1.9%, housing is in for a world of hurt. These projections make no sense with the housing/mortgage market. Something will have to give. Or the fed will become the mortgage market.
10-Year Treasury Notes:
2010 Budget ....................................................... 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
Congressional Budget Office (March 2009) ...... 3.7 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6
April Blue Chip Consensus ............................... 3.7 2.9 3.5 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
(first set of marks)
10-Year Treasury Notes:
2010 Budget ....................................................... 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
Congressional Budget Office (March 2009) ...... 3.7 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6
April Blue Chip Consensus ............................... 3.7 2.9 3.5 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
CA needs to start a Taliban so Obama will nation-build it.
Some atheletes are ahead of the curve in terms of 2nd job....
Terrell Owens Scores VH1 Reality Show
Terrell Owens' reality show will cover wideout's time at Buffalo Bills' minicamp - ESPN
SUmmary is that the CBO is predicting 5% in mid 2010?
Nominating for Best Chart Porn Ever-- an animated chart showing the rise and fall of house prices, against median income, from 1987, in the Case Shiller cities:
designing better futures: Housing Happiness, median incomes relative to house value 1987-09
@Vonbek I remember at the height of Bush bashing, a story came out that W had purchased some land down in Uruguay or was it Paraguay, can't remember...anyway the gist was that the Bush family was buying up lots of land over a water source, and that W planned on fleeing the country to escape possible war crime charges. I wonder what stories we will be hearing about Obama in a few years?
Oho, that story isn't over yet. Give it a while...Holder seems to be digging, even if it is giving Obama heartburn. O sure isn't falling all over himself to give up some of that freshly-minted-Cheney-executive-authority.
Your Type is
ENFJ
Extraverted Intuitive Feeling Judging
Strength of the preferences %
11 62 25 67
Noooooooooo!
T.O. should just go.
Far, far away.
shorting the PGA would be fun.
"Nice dodge there, but we were talking about the 1%'ers... "
not a dodge at all... that is utter sh*thead logic. do you like it when folks from other parts of the world assume that every american makes a million dollars a year? no. that's stupid. you don't see the busted knees and shoulders that waste 15 years of workouts, camps, and blown off classes. you don't see the kid that gets a callup for just a week and gets sent down, with zero savings to show for it (and likely lots of debt from eating crappy food in AAA towns). you don't see the nfl "star" who does the average two years, maybe brings home 600K for his total career earnings after taxes, and the agent, which becomes less than nothing after the entourage cashes in and has nothing but a totally wrecked body and 60-year lifespan to show for it.
you just see a few hundred multi-millionaires. maybe if you had some kind of extraordinary talent yourself and dealt with the process of seeing it commoditized, you would have a slightly more accurate take on the subject.
"Man this makes me angry...anyone catch the Reuters story about Obama saying we have a long way to go in Afghanistan...."
you should know by now that the country has to be in a state of constant war. our economy depends on it.
"CA needs to start a Taliban so Obama will nation-build it."
~~~~~
Ca needs to establish a bank and get TARPED ....
but yours is the next best idea ...
I know W isn't spending a lot of time at his ranch in Crawford like he said he would,
That was put on the market, I heard. I thought they had bought a surprisingly modest home in Midland to retire to?
Nice work, Scone.
We're a baseball and football country and the owners are doing just fine.
Don't tell that to Wayne Weaver.
Or the AZ Diamondbacks, who in 2001 had 3mm thru the turnstiles, won the World Series and still lost $20mm and have been losing money ever since.
"Ca needs to establish a bank and get TARPED ...."
Well with the printing of IOU securities, they are well on their way?
CA can declare itself to be a Shariah-compliant bank holding company.
HH,
I don't begrudge their freaky talents, but you seem obsessed about talking about minor league baseball, and i'm talking Major Leagues.
Apples & Oranges.
CA needs to be a movie so people will pay tickets to watch it
CAM,
Even without the recombinant possibilities, the sheer numbers of folks who will need medical attention can overwhelm the medical service delivery system which would result in a dramatic deterioration in outcomes...
New York Yankees Player Salaries and Team Payroll - MLB Baseball - ESPN
I am doing a little research and discovering what I believe to be more SFR with a trustee sale in the works than there are for sale on MLS. This is still the kick-the-can-down-the-road phase - waiting for the sucker administration to bail everyone out.
Green Shoot?
" HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 5:35 pm
, maybe brings home 600K for his total career earnings after taxes, and the agent, which becomes less than nothing after the entourage cashes in and has nothing but a totally wrecked body and 60-year lifespan to show for it."
FWIW, I've heard that linemen average under 50 years.
CIT getting bailout!!!!!!!!
the united states of goldman sachs
maybe we should just skip irs and send the money directly to hanks pals
Can CIT (CIT) Convince the U.S. That It Has the Economy By the Balls?
headline of the day
link
Pig pickin'
See the wsj front page. No story yet.
You know, just recently I was wondering why nobody had said---
----so long, and thanks for all the fish.
shorts covering CIT like mad...
"U.S. officials are in advanced talks to aid CIT."
From WSJ healine
Basel couldn't imagine people holding too many shorts going into the close today.
(911 Call Center)
Incoming caller:We got an acronym down, not breathing!
Can you $end an ambulance?
"FWIW, I've heard that linemen average under 50 years. "
there was an article in the nytimes a year or two ago that had pictures of 60s/70s nfl vets - the guys are more or less vegetables now. football is a disgusting, violent sport. there's a reason that every other one of our major sports makes big money overseas while the nfl stays at home. it's like our outsized prison population in more ways than one, a disgusting uniquely american institution.
CIT has $63 billion in outstanding debt. $17 billion is short term.
I'd love to see the marks on their "assets" in a bankruptcy.
"Well with the printing of IOU securities, they are well on their way? "
~~~
No ... they've done this before ....
CA establishing a bank would hurt political contributions ....
and piss off the banksta FED ...
Football is mind numbingly booooring.
3+ hours to play a one hour game.
My brother has been trying to get me into the 'other' football: soccer.
"U.S. officials are in advanced talks to aid CIT."
Extend and pretend, baby!
"and i'm talking Major Leagues."
right, you're demonizing a large group of people based on the most visible 1% of them. glad you're clear on that.
In other news: "California secedes. Wooed by Russia/China"
HH,
Go ahead and find the highest paid player in the minor leagues and get back to me with the answer...
tim: don't know what i was thinking, except that the stock started flying AH.
I've heard that linemen average under 50 years.
The NFL is by far the richest league, and the players with the shortest careers. Yet, it has the weakest players unions and treats its retirees like crap.
The only league that treats its players worse is the NCAA. I may be the only one cheering the new development of high school players jumping to Europe.
"U.S. officials are in advanced talks to aid CIT."
Will that be aid like the banks got (shareholders on up bailed out), FNM/FRE got (bondholders on up bailed out), or GM got (unions on up bailed out).
Dangerous trading in the bailout game.
I think there is going to be a resurgence of headbangers soon. Not for the music, just from the news. I mean it is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. You know it is coming, but you can't look away. I have to keep myself from banging my head on my desk daily now. Too big to fail.....mantra for the decade.
" Citizen AllenM (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 5:02 pm
Plus, as I posted above, immunocompromise is a death sentence for people exposed to this flu. "
Interesting; the 1918 flu pandemic was, if I've read correctly, actually easier on the immune-compromised. Presumably it hit those in the prime of their life hard because their immune systems reacted so virulently that the patients actually drowned in their own fluids. I've been keeping extra doses of prednisone around since the SARs outbreaks, hoping it might help provide relief should that sort of thing happen again.
Is a pro athlete really someone who doesn't earn most their income from the sport they compete in and related advertising? AKA Minor Leaguers?
It's like saying that people who wait tables in LA are professional actors. If they are then why are they waiting tables? It's a hobby?
@ LL
Someone beat you to the phrase...
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 1:45 pm replyIgnore user
I guess we could join the dolphins....
So long and thanks for all the fish...
~miser
CIT bailout
Save Exec jobs
Save bondholders
Still no new lending to "small businesses"
Basel appreciate the snark but a 20% move brings it to Fridays open not a big move for 1 dollar stock
OMG - get this, just flashed across my Bloomberg - ACA Capital Holdings reports 1 for 100,000 reverse stock split.
LMAO!!!
Will that be aid like the banks got (shareholders on up bailed out), FNM/FRE got (bondholders on up bailed out), or GM got (unions on up bailed out).
Dangerous trading in the bailout game.
It would be a REALLY good time to break with the recent past and wipe out the parties according to old-fashioned capital structure rules.
CIT bailout
~~~~~
PIMCO is happy !
" JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 5:49 pm
It would be a REALLY good time to break with the past and wipe out the parties according to old-fashioned capital structure rules."
I presume you mean the recent past. In any event, I suspect that it has more to do with campaign receipts than practical finance.
"It would be a REALLY good time to break with the past and wipe out the parties according to old-fashioned capital structure rules."
~~~~~
Sorry ... no de-leveraging ... $50 trillion is not enough debt ...
Maybe CIT's bailout will have its bondholders and/or shareholders eat shit. A symbolic gesture to teach the other banks to cook their books further.
Dr Munch
Don't bet on it
Dad played college football for a small university in the 70s. Has a bowl ring. Even after Ranger school, airborne school, and breaking an ankle and suffering frostbite in Alaska, the injuries that pain him the most today are football related. Both shoulders shot, knees in real bad shape, and has a dislocated thumb injury that never healed properly. I never understood why my dad didn't push football on me...big family thing on his side, another uncle made it to the NFL. I played two season, junior varsity, hated it. I understand now. Now that I am older, I like to watch the game for the strategy and the talent, but it is a modern gladiator's ring. I understand why some people love the game, but make no mistake you sacrifice your body to play the game.
It's all too easy to overcook a book, the 7th chapter of which, in particular...
"US Discussing FDIC debt backing for CIT Group" says my Bloomberg.
Duh, isn't that what the whole issue was about? Of course they are discussing it.
Why not, though, it is just a "guarantee", that doesn't cost anything, does it? Just like the implicit guarantee Fannie and Freddie had for all those years, those never cost anything, did they?
Let's face it - failure is no longer allowed in America as long as you are big enough and politically connected enough.
Political Capture at the highest levels.
"Maybe CIT's bailout will have its bondholders and/or shareholders eat shit. A symbolic gesture to teach the other banks to cook their books further."
I'm with Tim, fat chance.
Free Market Capitalism is now a punchline. Kinda like strong/stable US dollar.
Ghost,
It's called Fascism!
Tim waiting: I wouldn't envision it happening, though WAMU's bondholders ate shit, IIRC.
@Vonbek777...
I chortle when I hear one of my Brazilian friends talking about how tough Rinaldo is, how American football is for pussies with the pads and all.
I tell them... Rinaldo is built to run and pass the ball for 90+ minutes. He barely has any upper body. If he goes head to head with Julius Peppers, it doesn't matter how much padding he's wearing - he's going to be seriously injured.
"It's called Fascism! "
Fascism, Statism, Corporatism, many names could apply.
So with all these bailouts....and our huge welfare system....how many people can we estimate are on the government's payroll system? a rough estimate, anybody?
Banks
auto
insurance
investment brokers
semi-financials
welfare
federal
state
local
social security
prison system
contractors working solely with state/federal
60s/70s nfl vets - the guys are more or less vegetables now.
1st rule of the NFL after retirement is shed the weight; the human body isn't designed to carry that much weight. Type II diabetes, accelerated joint failure are in their future even without the beatings they took.
There's a reason why the NFL pensions are 2 tiered; little payouts if taken @ 40, monster payouts if taken @ 50. Guys who take it at 40 usually don't make it to 50.
NHL players used to not spend a nickel and live on their road PDs until their 400th game(when their pension would kick in), then live upper middle class lifestyle, though it's changed a bit.
"It's like saying that people who wait tables in LA are professional actors."
it is very much like that. many folks in LA get a few commercials, maybe one or two a year, and maybe get a few spots on a tv show or bit part in a movie every year or two. the TV residuals often barely pay the rent but nothing more. but they are often just as dedicated to the craft as the celebrities who hit it big. same with the guys who grind out AAA ball for 30 grand a year, or whatever it is.
and it is the same end of the road in your mid 30s - the pretty face that got the odd disney show and phone commercial gets less calls, the second baseman drifts down from AAA to AA, etc. but they are professionals, and their peak window to make money is often very small.
"Let's face it - failure is no longer allowed in America as long as you are big enough and politically connected enough.
Political Capture at the highest levels. "
~~~~
HomeGnome beat me to it ...
HomeGnome
Ghost,
It's called Fascism!
netflix rises on speculation that AMZN will acquire them. Companies are finding that it's pretty difficult to goose earnings without M+A goodwilll.
CIT WAYYYYYY TBTF!
Too big to let all those assets find a real mark. Bailout to protect GE, GS, MS....
Obama -- the King of bailouts with Taxpayer $$$$$$$$!
Deleted
When my dad was in the Sinai in the early 80s, there were some Aussies who were big into rugby...said American football was for pussies. Dad played one weekend, he wasn't invited back. Seemed he played a little bit too rough.
Last I heard, Laura Bush insisted on something more civilized than the ranch in Crawford so they have a nice place in Dallas not Paraguay or whatever that rumor was.
"netflix rises on speculation that AMZN will acquire them. Companies are finding that it's pretty difficult to goose earnings without M+A goodwill."
Kinda reminds me of 2007 when everyone said Google wanted to buy them.
Only really in the NFL has the level of violence been ratcheted up, certainly not in the NBA, MLB or NHL (heck, it;s almost figure skating now)
"Obama -- the King of bailouts with Taxpayer $$$$$$$$! "
He really has taken it to a new level, hasn't he?
"Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 5:53 pm
Now that I am older, I like to watch the game for the strategy and the talent, but it is a modern gladiator's ring. I understand why some people love the game, but make no mistake you sacrifice your body to play the game."
I see that you "get" the game. My wife (from the Far East) is baffled at my enjoyment of the game, and of course, when I tell here that is such a "mental" sport, and it's like a game of chess, she just rolls her eyes and shakes her head. I for one don't get soccer; it's just a bunch of guys running from one end of the field to the other. There's no trying to catch the team in a particular defense to spring a trick/big play on them. Just a lot of running around.
It seems to me that soccer relies on superior talent, whereas in football, superior planning and teamwork can beat superior talent at a few of the skill positions. Guys like Archie Manning had little success in the NFL because they could never get a team to coalesce around them, despite the fact that for nearly 20 years, it seemed like half the pro bowlers in the NFL had done a stint in New Orleans.
Just my opinion...
Funny how librarian Laura married an illiterate chimp...
no CIT bailout news available anywhere - Google News, Bloomberg - any links or is this just an after hours game?
From the guy that should know ...
Benito Mussolini :
"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power."
I've probably been to 20 Major League Baseball games since that season in 1988, as I lost interest in looking inside the box and started looking outside of it...
Where the money is going:
Federal IT Dashboard
see wsj
U.S. in Talks to Rescue CIT - WSJ.com
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 3:01 pm
When my dad was in the Sinai in the early 80s, there were some Aussies who were big into rugby...said American football was for pussies. Dad played one weekend, he wasn't invited back. Seemed he played a little bit too rough.
quite true. The thing is if he played rugby at football speed he wouldn't last a month due to injury. I used to play in sevens tournament with the entire squad being football players; the bad teams we'd play a rugby style of tackling, against good teams we'd knock their dicks in the dirt and they would be afraid of the ball. We really picked our spots to up the hitting because we'dve wound up with broken collarbones.
Johnny wilkinson is a textbook example of what happens when you play too hard.
I was referring to Vonbek, thankful fish-wise.