"If I were running the government, I would be trying to make up that GDP shortfall right now: I would be rushing a clean $170 billion--$500 per citizen--aid-to-states -that-maintain-effort package through the congress this week. It would seem the right and the obvious thing to do."
This is exactly the right prescription ...
Even states that are managing to balance their budgets are cutting programs and jobs and / or increasing taxes ... This proposal would save hundreds of thousands of jobs and help tens of millions of people by saving programs.
If anything the proposal is too little ...
The best answer, is politically almost impossible right now. That is Single Payer Healthcare. This would remove health care costs from business, local and state governments, insure the under and uninsured, getting money right into the economy while giving a huge boost to consumer confidence ...There are many ways to pay for it that wouldn't hurt the economy going forward ...
Doctors in California's Central Valley were offered up to double what they were earning (and no malpractice insurance needed) caring for innocent Americans, to care for felons in our for-profit-prison-system.
Doctors in California's Central Valley were offered up to double what they were earning (and no malpractice insurance needed) caring for innocent Americans, to care for felons in our for-profit-prison-system.
All week, the Administration has been down-playing Biden's comments about "misreading" the economy. First, it was about adjusting to the "learning curve." Then, it was a matter of allowing the stimulus to "kick in." If Obama comes back asking for another stimulus, the political fall-out is huge. In effect, they were (1) in fact of misreading the economy and (2) guilty of misreading how ARRA would work. Both show signs of incompetence. If Obama wants another stimulus, it will have to be done via the tax code, TARP, or some other package; going hat in hand to Congress is political suicide.
axelrod's probably wondering how the inept GOP checkmated them on Stimulus #3.
Keynesian excuse for their ongoing FAIL: "Hey, at least He isn't McCain."
It just astounds me that the people who admit now that they misread the situation and misdiagnosed the disease and mistreated the symptoms are now looking for more authority.
If central planning worked then the (former) USSR would now be the richest country on earth. Cuba would be a close second. Who do these morons think is paying for this stimulus?
Preliminary calculations showed that new lending was 1.53 trillion yuan, the central bank said on its website yesterday, bringing total lending this year to 7.4 trillion yuan, far exceeding the country's initial full-year target of disbursing 5 trillion yuan in loans. Total lending so far this year amounted to almost one quarter of last year's GDP.
So mortgage brokers, realtors, investment bankers, aerospace engineers, and lawyers are going to go to work on road constuction crews in this magical second half recovery? Half of the country can't fix its infrastucture after September.
Doctors in California's Central Valley were offered up to double what they were earning (and no malpractice insurance needed) caring for innocent Americans, to care for felons in our for-profit-prison-system.
When a doctor cares for felons in a medium-to-maximum security state prison, he/she must give up a whole day of work for security reasons. He/she must check in once and check out once that day. Also, the days are not always fixed and can vary. For this reason, it is hard for doctors (including shrinks) to work in the prison system and still maintain their practice on the outside. Doctors don't want to do it, and they only do it because of public service.
A shrink who works in the state prison where my son was at (for two months) told me this while I was visiting one day. He was pretty upset about it.
The admin has a problem now that we've effectively turned over the control of the economy to foreign governments. We can talk until we're blue in the face about what we should do, but the admin is probably concerned about the impact of further large spending on the dollar. They've most likely gotten a huge earful at international conferences.
If central planning worked then the (former) USSR would now be the richest country on earth.
If simplistic bashing of central planning worked, Somalia would be the richest country on earth. I'm always amused by people who've ridden skscrapers and aircraft bash central planning, as if those things could build themselves spontaneously. Why on earth would something as complex as a "global economy" self-assembly itself if a plane can't?
Question: Why do all societies wind up becoming profoundly stupid and impotent?
As for Biden's "gaffe" -- reminds me of all the so-called "gaffes" made by Howard Dean in 2004. But 8 out of 10 things the guy said was largely true (at the time). All that got lost with that stupid media-driven "scream" crap though.
I really wanted Dean to become president, not because I thought he'd be a great incarnation of POTUS, but because the entire world would have been forced to listen to his "gaffes" for four years. OH that would have been jolly good fun. He'd have been a one-termer, but the pandemonium would have been a hoot.
Conjure says, "The longer this thing lasts, the lower the multiplier will be for any stimulus."
"I guarantee you this much, and remember you heard it here first: if there is a second stimulus, the multiplier will be lower than for the present program."
"Bush and Co should have put forth a massive stimulus, which would have had a decent multiplier."
CR: Thank you ever so much for adding the actual unemployment directly onto their plot.
So here's a confession for you all: I believe that all leaders will make mistakes, but that good leaders will correct their mistakes faster than bad ones. That is my great hope for this administration.
I wonder if we will go through the looking glass this autumn - lost in the haze last fall was the fact that the greenback had a simply spectacular performance. spx 1100, gold $1600 and eur/usd $2, anyone?
I guarantee you this much, and remember you heard it here first: if there is a second stimulus, the multiplier will be lower than for the present program.
Sorry Conjure, I heard Joseph Tainter say it first. Diminishing marginal returns on investments in complexity.
"it is hard for doctors (including shrinks) to work in the prison system and still maintain their practice on the outside. Doctors don't want to do it, and they only do it because of public service."
When a doctor goes to prison @ double his previous salary, why would they care about their practice on the outside?
How is that a problem? I like Chinese food. They only invaded Vietnam. Other than that they have stayed at home. Our leaders will become puppets to foreign masters? I thought they were already puppets?
It seems to me that the seemingly minor issue of a Rio Tinto employee being charged in China with the equivalent of a white collar elony (and other RT workers being detained by the Chinese) is not a minor issue. Australia is pretty peeved, and it has awakened the whole business world to the hazards of doing business with authoritarian Communists, who will use business people to accomplish political objectives.
mp: Just one of his four central principles from The Collapse of Complex Societies. Can be applied to stimulus packages, higher education, agricultural advances, scientific research...
Nothing against the Chinese, but they're like...Chinese. Could be Latvians, Ghanans or Australians.
It just pisses me off that we managed to screw the whole verklempt thing so badly that we've effectively surrendered our internal policy decisions to not necessarily friendly governments.
I really hope O takes Geithner out sooner rather than later.
Fed won't go away, but the corrective action would be to cause re-privatization of the insolvents companies by informing BB of a strong desire to take those bulls by the horns.
I give the former decent odds, but the latter is probably not going to happen without some catalyzing event (and not after late 2011 regardless, due to reelection issues.)
Back in reality, I found out that a young business associate (just a year or two out of school) has 180K of student-related debt. Not for a law or medicine or equivalent degree, either.
The grapes of wrath are starting to seriously ferment for the born-after-1980 crowd...
Yes, and one lives in my house (for now). His car payment is 650/mo. Two months behind on rent, which is approx. 33% of the mortgage payment. Sweetarse deal and he still can't keep up while sucking down more of my money through utilities and not halving the amenities (cable, net. dtv).
So, good sir, looking at his car in the driveway, all the other cars in the driveways of my neighbors (and I have driven the entire subdivision and adjoining one where the houses are bigger and more expensive with the same said cars) and knowing what the housing costs are in a general way based on sales/comps, I can tell you this: people are fcuked and For Sale and For Rent signs continue to go up.
In a nutshell, don't buy an 07 Hummer or Escalade when you live in a house that costs less than 2x that price. It ain't gonna end well.
I'm throwing my BS flag on that one.
Are they working for free?
How can you throw your BS flag on it, if you've never actually been inside a prison where they hold hard-core medium-to-maximum security long-time felons?
"If central planning worked then the (former) USSR would now be the richest country on earth. Cuba would be a close second. Who do these morons think is paying for this stimulus?"
~~~~~
Oh please ... this is hardly central planning ...
It is putting money into the economy which is a financial disaster ...
I really hope O takes Geithner out sooner rather than later.
Summers won't remove Geithner for the same reason Cheney didn't remove Rumsfeld. Confidence.
HollywoodHack: student loan debt is going to be a huge political thorn. Unfortunately, Obama and his Administration all have roots in higher ed, so I doubt that they think of themselves as overpriced debt-pushers.
i think it is fair to say that the GSE-managed economy (and, in retrospect, C, BAC and AIG really were GSEs all along) combined the worst aspects of state planning and free markets and really don't help or hinder either ideological position.
HollywoodHack: If the grapes of wrath are fermenting for these kids, they have a long way to go yet.
I want you to take a few minutes to watch this video of how our "best and brightest" edumacated young Americans speak truth to power. Go ahead, watch it. Watch the whole thing if you dare. You may die laughing, but if you're like me, you'll want to slit your wrists instead.
The Chinese are playing hardball, not a whole lot different than we have done, locking out competition in oh so many diverse fields overseas, just not as blatant.
I believe we have only two paths out of this and NO middle ground.
Option A)
Cease all bailouts, balance all budgets.. Mass chaos.. massive homelessness.. The US standard of living is dramatically reduced for decades. We hit rock bottom quickly and supply is dropped well below demand, then we start to rebuild.
Option B)
Cover it all up by providing US citizens enough printed money to make it all go away. $5000 per month per citizen for 2 years should work or you can take $100K upfront. All tax free. So a family of 5 could take $500K and clear all debts and likely have money to spare. Some will pay off debt, others will spend it all.. Some will deposit it in banks. All of those things help to fix everything. How much inflation happens is unknown, but we clear the balance sheet and then start rebuilding the currency from however low it falls.
Right now they are playing the middle and everyone is losing.
They simply screwed up. They funded every big government program that was on the shelf. The result is spending with no long term return in the way of a stronger or more efficient economy. Had they used $750 billion in invest in a stronger economy, then we would be see the results today and in future returns. Instead the money will revolve once, go away and we will be left with hefty bills and little to show for it.. It is unfortunate that Obama abandoned his financial advisers and went straight to the most left wing of his party. There is little that we can do now but accept the lower standards of living that will come from these poor decisions.
Diminishing marginal returns on investments in complexity.
It's important to determine what should be controlled at a central level and limit it to a minority of the overall structure. There's a balance between value from standardization (centralized controlled) and localized differentiation ("customization"). Central controllers perceive value of standardization because there's where they live but often don't balance it against value of localized control.
See this problem a lot in software in large organizations.
"Unfortunately, Obama and his Administration all have roots in higher ed"
well, more to the point, they're all baby boomers, so they naturally empathize with the UC admin or senior nurse making 300K/year than the kid with 100K of debt and the worst job market in 80 years.
the UC 'professional fees' were under 10/K year just 7 years ago. now, they're closer to 30K. sorry to extrapolate a natl situation from a uniquely californian one, but the rest of the country does slavishly follow our every trend a few years later...
The top-paid doctor and nurse made $441,774 and $330,499, respectively. Of the 1,000 highest-paid state employees last year, more than half were corrections clinicians, based on state data.
"The top-paid doctor and nurse made $441,774 and $330,499, respectively. Of the 1,000 highest-paid state employees last year, more than half were corrections clinicians, based on state data."
Btw, China seems to be more afraid of an uprising than us. Strange, considering they're willing to run over their unarmed citizens with tanks/guns. Whereas in America, Geithner is openly giving money to the bankers, and Americans are ARMED to the teeth. Strange world.
oh, i know. they have a looooong way to go to achieve what an old-school marxist might call 'class consciousness', and may never get there. in any case, it is just about too late. the alarm bells really went off when the donut bill was passed 5 or so years ago, and just about everyone slept through it.
In training, I had to go in the women's prison unit at the Galveston, TX state hospital. The guard asked if I wanted someone with me in the examining room. The patient was about 250 pounds, with AIDS and hepatitis, and she had a bad 'tude. The guard looked at me like I was a pussy when I said "Yes, I would".
I don't think of GS as bankers. They are more like an unelected supreme council. The USA may have more in common with Iran than any other nation at this point.
Cover it all up by providing US citizens enough printed money to make it all go away. $5000 per month per citizen for 2 years should work or you can take $100K upfront. All tax free. So a family of 5 could take $500K and clear all debts and likely have money to spare.
I've been espousing a one-time opt-out for Medicare for years. My dad turns 65 this December, and he'd opt-out if he could give the $200K to his 3-month old granddaughter. Instead, he'll be used as a cash cow for the medical industrial complex for the next 20 years.
They truly believe it's a game. The only way that video could have been any funnier/sadder is if these kids were magically transported to Teheran and their final plea for "democratic consensus process" was punctuated by a burst of machine gun fire from the Ayatollah's guards.
Oatmeal for brains. This is what the highest standard of living and "education" in the world produces.
If Geithner is going, then Summers' job is also in the crosshairs.
Obama is giving these thugs enough rope to hang themselves with.
I don't know if this is a plan, or noise in the system.
mal - I'd need some convincing that what Tainter wrote is fully applicable to "stimulus" in the current environment. Depends on how they propose to do it, in part. Depends on revealed preferences of utilization by the recipients.
not really. the bargain is this - party A lets party B rule with zero transparency and accountability and the continuing enrichment of corrupt petty officials as long as party B maintains a climate which allows for a stratospheric increase in living standards, largely through new jobs.
when those new jobs stop appearing, the bargain comes under serious stress. the situation in the USA is entirely different - we're duped and hypnotized by a two-party game while the financial elite milks future generations dry.
I had my eyes opened to the prison-industrial-complex in California, when I was at the dry cleaners and the whirligig went round and round and about every 10th article of clothing was a prison guards shirt or pants...
The debate here from the economic panel is incongruent, because they fail to address the reality of the shortfall related to the impacts of the recession on individuals and businesses. Suggesting that another $500 per family is out of line and suggests a dis-connection between theory and application -- just as The Obama Stimulus to add $13 per pay check for people that still have jobs. I see inflation in food and gas and thus the cost of living in this recession is not being taken into account. Giving someone $500 will cover two months worth of food costs -- and where are the jobs, where is the recovery?
Just as the prison-industrial complex exists to keep brown kids stupid and keep them from effectively organizing, the higher-educational complex exists to keep white kids stupid (not to mention drunk) and to keep them from effectively organizing.
"Vallejo police and fire are NOT the typical salaries in the US ...
But people of your ilk find the exception to the rule and lie for all it's worth ...
Find that Welfare Mom driving the new Cadillac yet ?"
That's next month... Once government motors realizes that they have too many Caddy's they will start to loan them out to the "welfare to work program"
Obama is giving these thugs enough rope to hang themselves with.
That phrase usual means that they are being set up to fail.
I don't really believe that. I think that everyone believes the actions they are taking are the right ones. But it will be up to the leader to realize that a change is needed because the current path is not working well.
Yes their live in boy friends mooching of her! Sorry it gets real easy to see it up front being a land lord in small town America. Yous should see the play toys at one of the Habitat for Humanity house here in town. Abuse all over the place.
I'm a nurse practitioner that works in a prison system (they couldn't find a Doc to do this job). I serve as the health director of our community Jail (140, mostly state, inmates). The jail has a contract with a health provider group called southern health partners. This group then subcontracts me to come to the jail twice a month to see patients. I'm also on call for emergencies 24-7. I get paid a flat fee once a month (750.00, no withholding). SHP provides my malpractice coverage.
It's a rough gig, the only reason I do it is because my boss is related to the jailer and thought "we" should do it to help out the community.
When PK posted that same chart I left a comment at PK's site about that chart with unemployment with and without stimulus. Thank you CR, for putting up the actuals line in your post - because THAT is the point. PK contends that by looking at the forecast without stimulus curve and comparing it with the forecast WITH stimulus curve you can see that the stimulus wasn't going to make much of a difference even by Q3..... Yeah yeah but he totally misses that BOTH curves bear no resemblance to actuality.. By comparing two wrongs you can discern something ? You get a Nobel Prize in Economics for that I suppose - Sorry, he's a clever, humorous man and all that but he illustrates Taleb's statements about economists well.
sadly, I agree. I've often noted that CA has a two-track educational system. One has insitutions in LA, Berkeley, Santa Cruz, San Diego, Irvine, Chico, Bakersfield... and the other in Folsom, Pelican Bay, San Quentin, Soledad, etc
True, although I haven't seen <> in a while....took me a few seconds to realize it (I confuse my symbols sometimes since I hold dual degrees in math and cs)
Counterpointer - if you are still around - I was AWFK and missed your comment about Singapore on the previous thread
The Bberg article refers specifically to the Singapore GDP ("Gross domestic product rose an annualized 13.4 percent last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking 14.6 percent between January and March, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News") and to Asian economies in general ("Singapore and other economies in the region are forecast to report better second-quarter figures as about $2 trillion in stimulus worldwide helps stabilize overseas sales").
I am no expert on Singapore and do allow that the economists surveyed by Bloomberg can be wrong, but the odds of being VERY wrong for the report to be released tomorrow are not that high.
Same point is made by The Times of London In Indonesia, household spending accelerated in the first three months of the year by 5.8 per cent — the fastest pace in a decade — lifted by government handouts in an election year. Singapore may have just suffered its worst recession, but the recovery is, thanks to buoyant regional trade, widely expected to be “V” shaped, with a 6 per cent contraction in 2009 followed by a 5 per cent expansion in 2010. Thailand and Taiwan are being tipped to make similar swings from recession to growth.
ADDED. Yes, the Asian stock indices in Asia are down 1-2%. So the GDP news might not be all that great - or it was expected. I can't really say "priced in" in a polite company anymore, can I?
Credit bubble tends to drive differentiation as money chases ever-decreasing marginal utility. That's great but what it also does is lower shared context. CR's discussion group here is an excellent example of such a wide disparity of beliefs, experiences and solutions that there are probably no true answers here.
.
Ergo, we'll probably enter a period of forced standardization, which is what post-Depression Germany experienced. Fringe dwellers on the margin will be quashed and forced into a larger belief system. A lot of what's happening is related to changes in the media, I believe. From 1950 on, a strong consensus was driven the three television networks and morality codes.
.
The Internet has diffused that for almost two decades now. Ultimately you can derive all this from an obsessive examination of the Schramm communication model and some history. Visual diagrams here of what's happening -
.
. http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=context_ideosphere_the_internet
.
....The United States has the highest documented incarceration rate,[3][4] and total documented prison population in the world.[5][6] As of year-end 2007, a record 7.2 million people were behind bars, on probation or on parole. Of the total, 2.3 million were incarcerated.[7] More than 1 in 100 American adults were incarcerated at the start of 2008. The People's Republic of China ranks second with 1.5 million, while having four times the population, thus having only about 18% of the US incarceration rate.[8][9].....
....American prisons and jails held 2,299,116 inmates as of June 30, 2007.[12] One in every 31 American adults, or 7.3 million Americans, are in prison, on parole or probation. Approximately one in every 18 men in the United States is behind bars or being monitored. A significantly greater percentage of the American population is in some form of correctional control even though crime rates have declined by about 25 percent from 1988-2008.[13] 70% of prisoners in the United States are non-whites.[14] In recent decades the U.S. has experienced a surge in its prison population, quadrupling since 1980, partially as a result of mandated sentences that came about during the "war on drugs." Violent crime and property crime have declined since the early 1990s.[15].............
My mother was state facillitator in california. Those prisoners deserve jack shit! They put themselves there, live with it! They replace organs, get new crowns, teeth etc...they are spoiled..They all need to rot... didn't know we have a case of bleeding hearts disease here! they wrote thier story, no need to sell it as a romance novel....
Doctors and nurses have all state holidays off in the system and have 3-6 guards in their premise at all times. While the doctors and nurses are off the guards that are assigned to that department play computer games, watch tv and eat...
6 guards doing nothing for practically 30 days of the year..we just pay them a lot of money to watch tv, everyone says prison guards have a tough job. Well if we just cut out all the friggin prisoners free time, weight rooms, tv, video etc...it would be not quite as tough....
A friend in California, in Federal Law Enforcement went to FLETC (Federal Law Enforcement Training Center) in Georgia a few years ago for like 6 months, and he told me that crime there was 2 to 3x the levels of here in the Golden State, he felt.
MrM - looks like sample bias to me. I've got a different sample. I think it's less wrong, or maybe wrong in different ways, but not wrong like the article's sources are wrong.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 9:32 pm
I've noticed the local coppers looking more military-like in the fashion they dress. Pants tucked into boots paratrooper style, etc.
Militarization of civilian police is straight out of the technological police state proscribed by the globalist agenda. Right along with raising their salaries well above the common folk (i.e. median wages) to buy their loyalty and investiture in a fundamentally corrupt system. These things can be averted but it gets more difficult to avoid this fate as time passes and these institutions persist in these directions.
mp - In a recent post CR linked to the Bberg interview of Roubini and Shiller, in which Shiller was also saying that the multiplier would have been greater last year and is getting smaller every month. Nevertheless he still argued for the second stimulus package.
From CR's chart I clearly see a pattern emerging from early Q3 2007 with actual unemployment rate increases which were just about to head towards 5% -- at that point, unemployment edged back downward and then increased back above 5% and then, as we have seen, the rate has been headed North, where a slight break may occur before we continue the journey Northward. Maybe I read too much into that blip though?
The biggest surprise to me related to inmates is the large number of mentally ill (bipolar, schitzophrenia) who are in there for drug charges. I've always suspected they were self medicating on the street. Sad situations. Most have Hepatitis C as well, nasty virus that.
Oh, and once I'm in, I'm in. No cell phone. Makes caring for my outside patient's difficult.
I think most guards are professional and mean well.
Per Wiki:
The 1976 swine flu outbreak, also known as the swine flu fiasco, or the swine flu debacle, was a strain of H1N1 influenza virus that appeared in 1976. Infections were only detected from January 19 to February 9, and were not found outside Fort Dix.[1] The outbreak is most remembered for the mass immunization that it prompted in the United States. The strain itself killed one person and hospitalized 13. However, side-effects from the vaccine caused 25 deaths.
mal - I'd need some convincing that what Tainter wrote is fully applicable to "stimulus" in the current environment.
Wow, I didn't know this was a Tainter literate crowd.
MrM- "In a recent post CR linked to the Bberg interview of Roubini and Shiller, in which Shiller was also saying that the multiplier would have been greater last year and is getting smaller every month."
Thanks. I'll check it out.
I am not, by the way, opposed to a second stimulus program, but think the fear factor will be significant going forward.
Absolutely. He knows that I correctly called the downturn and each and every major bank months before it officially failed.
I'm guiding him out of his 401k plan which has no choices except for 100% equities and into something more self-directed.
One thing that kills me is how much hard work it is to get people to listen to your advice, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that you've got some idea of what's going on.
"I'm curious what state you work in, Bo.
Because it would seem that maybe your boss is getting kickbacks... "
Ha, maybe. Guess I could try to blackmail, see what I can get . Oh, I live in the blue grass state, proud owners of 1 billion in debt this year for a state with only 4 million residents.
I've noticed the local coppers looking more military-like in the fashion they dress
Seen that, too, not in dress but attitude and action. But if you look closely, you'll see those guys are young and often scared spitless. There's almost certainly some sort of warnings floating around to them. They're often travelling pairs now. I watched traffic stop in downtown Boise on Saturday and the second trooper practically smelled of fear as he kept his back to the suspect & other cop, watching the sidewalk crowd.
In the alternative, the multiplier will be lower because of the increasing uselessness of adding additional debt. I think we passed $7 of debt per $ of GDP. The inverse of this relationship has been trending linearly downward and should soon (~1 year) cross zero, meaning infinitely more debt required to increase GDP, i.e., stimulus stops working entirely.
I think longwaver hit the nail on the head, Surprised it received no discussion. I think the gov has 2 choices. Cease all bailouts immediatley and take the "big bath", or print money like crazy and hand it out NOW. I mean, lot's of money. None of this bullshit $500 tax rebate shit. More like several thousand dollars per person. 10 sounds like a good round thousand number. Seriously, this dicking around isn't cutting it and the bailiuts just encourage people to buy guns and become more cynical, if possible.
Obama talked the big Change game. Time for him to put up or STFU.
ps. Had a couple glasses of wine. A little off balance right now, But honest.
One thing that kills me is how much hard work it is to get people to listen to your advice
See it the memes.
Belief systems are powerful precisely because they've been exposed to a Darwinian process of selection.
I have to admit, it usually surprised me, too.
Much more powerful than anyone realizes and I suppose it's true of all of us in our core beliefs.
All hail Goldman Sachs! We, who will pay higher taxes, salute you!
The Geithner put is paying off - why not to take the risk if the government will always be there for you?
From NY Times Most of Wall Street, and America, is still waiting for an economic recovery. Then there is Goldman Sachs.
Up and down Wall Street, analysts and traders are buzzing that Goldman, which only recently paid back its government bailout money, will report blowout profits from trading on Tuesday.
Analysts predict the bank earned a profit of more than $2 billion in the March-June period, because of its trading prowess across world markets. If they are right, the bank’s rivals will once again be left to wonder exactly how Goldman, long the envy of Wall Street, could have rebounded so drastically only months after the nation’s financial industry was shaken to its foundations.
The obsessive speculation has already begun, along with banter about how Goldman’s rapid return to minting money will be perceived by lawmakers and taxpayers who aided Goldman with a multibillion-dollar cushion last fall.
“They exist, and others don’t, and taxpayers made it possible,” said one industry consultant, who, like many people interviewed for this article, declined to be named for fear of jeopardizing business relationships.
...
Traders said Goldman capitalized on the tumult in the credit markets to reap a fortune trading bonds. It profitably navigated a white-knuckled run in stock markets. It bought and sold volatile currencies, as well as commodities like oil. And it reaped lucrative fees from the high-margin business of underwriting stock offerings, which surged this year as other, more troubled financial institutions raced to raise capital.
...
But to a degree unique among its peers, Goldman has turned the crisis to its advantage. Its perennial rival, Morgan Stanley, has refused to gamble in the markets and, as a result, is expected to post a humbling quarterly loss. The giants Citigroup and Bank of America, still in hock to the government, are struggling to regain their footing. Banks like Merrill Lynch, now owned by Bank of America, ran into trouble trying to replicate Goldman’s success.
Richard Bookstaber, a former hedge fund executive and author of a “A Demon of Our Own Design,” wonders if Goldman’s resurgence will prompt other banks to push once again into riskier forms of trading, possibly at their peril.
“Someone takes risks and makes money — maybe they were smart, maybe they were lucky,” Mr. Bookstaber said. “But then everyone else feels like they need to take the same risks.”
While others are shying away from risks, Goldman is courting them. A common measure of risk-taking at Goldman and other banks is known as value at risk, which estimates how much money a firm might lose on a single day. At Goldman, that figure rose by more than 20 percent in the first quarter. Analysts predict Goldman’s V.A.R. ran high in the second quarter as well.
"I think longwaver hit the nail on the head, Surprised it received no discussion. I think the gov has 2 choices"
Agree with both of you; but as somebody pointed out in an earlier thread (thanks btw), Obama is doing the cautiously incremental approach. Something has to force his hand. Personally I think the State IOU issues will soon. Once the other states realizes that California is being bailed out discreetly via banks accepting the papers, they'll clamor to issue IOUs. Then Obama will have to make a clear statement.
State-run National Aviation Co. of India Ltd, or Nacil, the operator of Air India, is raising about $1 billion (around Rs4,870 crore) in the form of an 11-year loan from US bank JPMorgan Chase and Co. to fund a part of its ambitious fleet expansion exercise.
The loan, guaranteed by the US Export-Import Bank (US Ex-Im Bank), according to two bankers familiar with the transaction, may help the cash-strapped airline save about $1 million a month in interest costs. Nacil posted a Rs5,000 crore loss in fiscal 2008-09.
"I think longwaver hit the nail on the head, Surprised it received no discussion. I think the gov has 2 choices. Cease all bailouts immediatley and take the "big bath", or print money like crazy and hand it out NOW. I mean, lot's of money. "
~~~~~
Without serious structural change to the economy, tax policy, trade policy, empire strategy and health care
My issue is that at no point will we ask why we didn't choose default. instead, we'll be presented with a salami-sliced economic "stimulus" plan whose primary effect is to rob the nation of its policy flexibility, further indebt future generations and line the nest of whatever interest can get itself in the path of the money hosepipe.
At each step of the way, we'll hear that if we hadn't made this mistake, the effects would have been much worse. As if this crisis was not a direct result of a collective decision not to take our medicine after 9/11 and the .com crash.
At what point will advocates of these policies admit they have the blood of America's future on their hands, and that this stimulus spending is the mortgage bubble of the current day? After the dollar crashes? After Fannie and Freddie crash? After PBGC goes under? When will we hear something other than "whocoodanode?"
Without serious structural change to the economy, tax policy, trade policy, empire strategy and health care
this is only a temporary fix ...
The choice really is a return ot a Jeffersonian economy, which means no aircraft carriers or 747s but pure freedom and disassociation of propagated side effects (The Libertarian model) or
Sounds to me like all the lib economists are pressin' hard for a command economy.
What use is an economist if we end up with the government running the entire low velocity ec0nomy ? They are shillin' for a program that ushers themselves out of work.
A swine flu vaccine will be fast-tracked for use in Britain within five days once it is developed, and 130 million doses are on order.
The Department of Health expects to have enough vaccine this year to give it to half the population. Further supplies will be available if needed. Each person will need two doses of the vaccine, unless one single jab is found to provide high rates of immunity.
From an older thread about Chefscorts... when I lived in Beano one of the tenants at the condo I concierged at was a Tremaine, as in the book of some fame. Old money.
He was closing in on 70 and one night a new Benz pulled into a parking spot that didn't have a Benz registered so I had to go out and check things. The two of them had already hopped in the elevator when I caught them going up on the first floor (ground level, one stop). Old boy was blitzed and the chick was impossibly perfect.
When I tried asking/explaining how I'd let the parking spot go for an hour when the true owner pulled up to park, and the resultant explanation was that it was his private nurse and he needed immediate privacy/attention to receive his medicine, I knew what was up.
Solution was to put the car of the parking spot owners in the temp spot, and not ask questions about the old fart and his tart. That was about as obvious as it got.
Sounds to me like all the lib economists are pressin' hard for a command economy.
What use is an economist if we end up with the government running the entire low velocity ec0nomy ? They are shillin' for a program that ushers themselves out of work.
~~~
Command economy ... Oh please ....
How about an economy not run by and for the banksters, the MIC, Big Ag and Health Care Incorporated ...
Sounds to me like all the lib economists are pressin' hard for a command economy.
Your side made that choice by acting as predators without self-control. You turned me, my sister, my brother and my parents into Democrats by gutting jobs and shouting out
Look, guys... Food, water, and shelter are all sorta like police and fire - basic services for the public good. Work on getting me those three for free, then come talk to me about free healthcare. And, I don't want just any house. It needs to be among the best house in the world. Now, get with it!
But the spending will never stop. We'll always overpay for defense and both parties are like drunken sailors with their pet projects. They are already printing all the money they want for shit like this, why don't they take it a little bit further and print a bunch more and drop it from copters, like BB said he would do? For more worthwhile projects, like my family? By the time the real SHTF we'll all be dead but we'll have enjoyed watching Weeds on 142" plasmas eating stuffed steak burritos and playing foosball in the living room of our mcmansions. It sure is a lot better than what I'm looking at now. Bailing out only filthy rich asswipes and intentionally unemployed miscreants and pigfilth collecting their SSI cuz they're so fat from a lifetime of Mickey D's and HFCS. The finger to those people as well as the spoiled assholes.
Again, a little wound up. Sorry. I'll switch to Pinot Noir. It's the elegant grape and should soothe me a bit.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 10:23 pm
I'm still a Repub, 'cause I don't wanna be a Dem.
can someone help me with this by starting a party aimed at the
middle?
Depends- are you a conservative leberal, or a liberal conservative?
In response to your post in the previous thread, I'm still around, but without Tanta's steel toed bunny slippers to keep the punters in line, the threads don't hold my interest anymore. I only posted in the last thread because it happened in my backyard, so to speak.
The need to differentiate ourselves from the poor and be considered middle class is the crime committed by the overleveraged consumer.
I give the poor kudos for just living the life available to them. Trailer parks, poor health, plastic toys and fast food was their lot so they took it. Too bad that obesity and being unattractive was part of the deal.
The unproductive among us who are part of the service economy have done much more harm to the financial well being of this country then the poor. Think about who really benefits and where the taxpayer money goes before you make up a villain of those who have few advocates.
It's said politicians face two choices, be a liar or be a hypocrite. People who point fingers at their fellow humans without a little critical thinking or self inspection face a similar choice.
There will be no massive stimulus for the general public. Period.
There will be no sudden ending of throwing money at banks, insure co, car co, etc.
Here is the deal, in my opinion. If either of the above happens people will KNOW we are screwed and they will panic. Panic big time. The primary objective is to not let people panic. Panic takes out governments, high paid bankers and anyone else the public at large decides to hang in the square.
There will be a 2nd stimulas as soon as the public is screeming "Do something, do anything" as they can't keep a roof over their heads or buy food for the kids. Then they will get the bread to go with the free cable TV. No one will get a bakery, but they will get a loaf.
It may take forever, we may never "recover" whatever that means now. But there will not be blood in the streets.
bearly (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 11:17 pm
Sounds to me like all the lib economists are pressin' hard for a command economy.
Why are you are using the word "lib" and meaning it at this late date?
The problem with a command economy isn't that it can't work. They can work quite well.
The problem is that instituted on a national scale, you either get a single idea which might be good or bad but which is going to become reality regardless of its quality (the First Sovereign Emperor vs. Kim Jong Il), or you get a system where there's only one political trough to compete for to get access to every resource in your society (Soviet gangsterism, or the Nazis).
The problem with a command economy in the America of today will be that the SOCIETY can't accomplish anything, and so the system does nothing but facilitate looting. The Republicans also accomplished nothing except ruining the country's institutions, spending it into penury, and entangling it in expensive foreign wars during their period of ascendence. Criticizing the Democrats for doing the same is just missing the point that this is the milieu of your nation.
"In essence, Goldman has managed to do again what it has always done so well: embrace risks that its rivals feared to take and, for the most part, manage those risks better than its rivals dreamed possible."
steinly (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 8:50 pm replyIgnore userquestion is, did Buffett know about GS's potential trading profits, with its clever fast software, when he decided to buy in?
Externalized Costs (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 11:34 pm
The need to differentiate ourselves from the poor and be considered middle class is the crime committed by the overleveraged consumer.
I give the poor kudos for just living the life available to them. Trailer parks, poor health, plastic toys and fast food was their lot so they took it. Too bad that obesity and being unattractive was part of the deal.
Over time, minstrel shows developed into a standard format of three parts, developed by Edwin Christy, incorporating skits and songs performed in an imitation of black "plantation" dialect. In the first part, the show began with a "walkaround" -- the company marching onto the stage singing and dancing. A staple of walkarounds was the cakewalk. White audiences loved the cakewalk, not realizing that it originated with plantation slaves imitating their master's walk.
The troupe was then seated in a semicircle, with one member on each end playing the tambourine or the bones. The endmen, as they were called, named Brudder Tambo and Brudder Bones, engaged in an exchange of jokes between the group's songs and dances. Eventually it became customary that Tambo was slim, whereas Bones was fat. A character called Mr. Interlocutor sat in the middle of the group, acting as the master of ceremonies. As the interlocutor took his place in the middle of the semicircle he uttered the time-honored phrase: "Gentlemen, be seated. We will commence with the overture." During the performance he conducted himself in a dignified manner that contrasted well with the behavior of the rowdy endmen.
Part two was the variety section, which included singers, gymnasts, and other novelty acts. A preposterous stump speech served as the highlight of this second act, during which a performer spoke in outrageous malapropisms as he lectured. Reminiscent of the hilarious pomposity of Zip Coon, the stump speech deliverer aspired to great wisdom and intelligence, but always ultimately appeared foolish and ignorant.
Part three ended the show with a one-act play, typically a vignette of carefree life on the plantation. After Uncle Tom's Cabin was published and the play became famous, minstrel shows appropriated the major characters for sketches that changed the abolitionist themes in the original into an argument for the supposedly benign character of slavery.
kidbuck
"If central planning worked then the (former) USSR would now be the richest country on earth. Cuba would be a close second. Who do these morons think is paying for this stimulus?"
hey lobbyist bend over please read this too
the most efficient economy is a command economy, thats why the united states and most other nations switch to central planning in war times
what obama is doing now has elements of a command economy...we are in an emergency and when (if) we get to the otherr side the right thing for the parties in power to do is wind down much of the alphabet soup programs being invented...but not all
btw, the economies that are most effcient at distributing the greatest amount of wealth to the most people are a combination of markets, and social-democratic economic institutions...like exists in most northern european countries especially norway sweeden, denmark finland, and to a lesser extent several other nations
ps the nazis were despicable in every way but developed a rapidly growing economy...in the early years russia (ussr) grew at a startling pace but then, like we would expect, lack of initiative, freedom and incentives ripped the economy
re: mal re post of the NYU Kimmel occupation video. Thank you very very much for posting that. Truly astonishing - when I remember the protests from my time - at the LSE, at East Anglia, this is well.. well we'd need a facilitator ( did he REALLY say and mean facilitator ?) to allow me to properly vent. Amazing. and thanks.
There is no hope with this generation. Roll on the next one..
Warren Buffett should have never bought into GS, IMHO ; he always maintained that he only buys businesses he understands; I am assuming Warrent Buffet does not comprehend and stand behind Wall St.'s well connected master thieves.
I hope I live to see the day when GS folks will be running down Wall St. with a pitch fork bearing mob giving chase.
If BHO does not get my vote next time around, it wil be due to palling around with GS!
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 12:00 am
nice, byz. definitely commedia dell'arte american-style, and the origin (or conduit) of much of our culture here.
The Minstrel Show as Sentimental and Nostalgic
After the Civil War, white minstrels concentrated their portrayals of Southern Negroes on the nostalgic stereotype of "Old Darky." Whether these characters had gone North and then returned or had never left, they found their old plantation gone, destroyed by the war. Aged, weak, and alone, they recalled the happy, carefree prewar days, which further underscored the tragedy of the destruction of the plantation. Since it was gone, audiences did not have to hear protests against the more unfortunate aspects of plantation life -- like slavery. Yet they could still bask in its warmth through the memories of the Old Darky. They could envy his carefree life of perpetual childhood -- singing, dancing, and frolicking. The could even momentarily share his simple world, free of the worries, insecurities, and responsibilities that they had to face. At the same time, they could feel comfortably superior to him and certain that, whatever else changed in their lives, he would always be their subordinate. Through him they could also mourn for lost simplicity, order, and control. Although he certainly did not offer an antidote for their problems, the Old Darky provided a temporary diversion, a reassuring certainty that whites desperately needed and clung to.
Agreed, sadly. The kids born between '82 and '02 will bear the full brunt of boomer misrule, and get the short end of the stick in every way imaginable. I do have hope for the kids born since '01, however. The dollar should have sufficiently devalued by 2030 and Joe Boomer will mercifully be expiring around that time. That means that they'll be able to invest in a newly credible and resurgent America with their prime earning years 2040-2055.
ah, but don't forget Byz, just as commedia dell'arte gave us "i pagliacci", so did minstrel culture give us "porgy and bess" and, ultimately, rock and roll.
Kinda obvious the next bailout has to be the states, and indirectly the local government level.
Governments will provide the backstop to the economy they are supposed to do under a depression style economic rescue plan.
What Krugman is saying is that we need Plan C, and we need it now. No more pussyfooting around.
As for the Nopublicans, well fork 'em.
Fire Geithner, he doesn't get it. The perils of a neoclassical economic education is you end up in Milton Friedman paralysis.
You have to backstop the states- we are getting ready to shutdown everything nonmandated by the Feds- including a tremendous amount of support for education.
Employment by the State of Arizona has been dropping for two years- and this is stimulus?
When you face a 50% shortfall in what is your discretionary budget- combined with soaring federally mandated poverty costs, something has to give- starting with a tax increase, to be followed by fee increases, and most likely more tax increases.
Zero stimulation at this rate- the couple of jobs from building roads are more than offset by layoffs in other areas.
This is the reality- we are still waaaaay behind the 8-ball, with triage, not stimulus.
This is the new economy- the old one is dead and gone.
i think Buffett knows allot more than he lets on. Think about it.
If Buffett's investing in GS was with the full knowledge of how GS stands to get great amounts of money from the USG, i.e. taxpayer's money, then this does not bore well for his legacy and future. Truth will come out, I do believe.
Ok so we bail out the states; who is going to bail out the municipalities? How much municipal debt is there in California? The $26, 27, 28B is only the state debt.
W, DeLay, Rove, Abramoff, Norquist, Dimon, Ken Lewis, Bernanke, Geithner, Obama, Clinton, and 70% of the current congress...
Just off the top of my head. Joe Boomer was born in 1955. Let's just call Bill the very first Boomer for argument's sake as of August 19, 1946, and Geithner the last as of August 18, 1961. Makes for a nice even 15 years on the nose.
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 12:09 am
ah, but don't forget Byz, just as commedia dell'arte gave us "i pagliacci", so did minstrel culture give us "porgy and bess" and, ultimately, rock and roll.
How to Make an Elegua
No matter which branch of the Santeria tradition is followed, Elegua always
inhabits a stone. It could be a natural stone or a cement form. These are the
instructions for constructing an Elegua out of natural stone.
Find a medium size stone, one about the size and shape of a large potato is
ideal. The stone should be collected next to a railroad track, at a crossroads, or
under a coconut palm.
Find the natural base of the stone, the surface where it will come to rest upright
by itself. Bore a perfectly round hole into the base of the stone about two inches
deep by an inch in diameter.
Cut the head off a white chicken and let the blood drip onto the stone. Make an
Omiero with May rainwater, coconut milk and the herbs that belong to Elegua.
Wash the stone thoroughly in the Omiero and leave it to soak for 24 hours.
Select three small precious stones. All gems belong to Elegua. Place the three
gems in the hole in the stone along with three small pieces of silver, three small
nuggets of gold, three small pieces of coconut, some feathers from the
sacrificed chicken and a small personal piece of gold jewelry.
Seal the hole with cement made with sand from a crossroads, Guinea pepper
and cemetery dust.
When the cement is dry, paint the rock black. Crown it with a fighting cock's
spur, with the curve towards the back. Give it cowrie shell eyes.
Take a white rooster and the rock to a palm tree growing by a crossroads.
Sacrifice the rooster and let the blood drip on the stone. Bury the rooster three
inches deep at the base of the palm.
After three days, dig up the rooster and wash it in a flowing river, first asking
Oshun's permission by tossing a live white chicken into the river along with a
little honey.
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 7:16 pm
reply ignore user
Btw, China seems to be more afraid of an uprising than us. Strange, considering they're willing to run over their unarmed citizens with tanks/guns. Whereas in America, Geithner is openly giving money to the bankers, and Americans are ARMED to the teeth. Strange world.
My wife says there is an old Chinese saying "kill a chicken to show the monkey". which basically means the govrnment makes an example of what can happen to you if you don't follow the rules. Chinese riots can grow exponentially overnight especially during economically turbulent times. The Chinese government tends to use overwhelming force to send a message to citizens inside the country.
Last time we were in Beijing we got caught in a very near riot just from a traffic jam that resulted in people rushing to get over a pedestrian traffic overpass. It can get bad very fast in China over seemingly minor things.
relevant in terms of cuban and brazilian culture, not so much here. which is why rock and roll is so much cooler (though i loves me some beny more and jobim, don't get me wrong...).
Probably what happened: GS calls up Buffet. "Mr. Buffet, would you like to make alot of money and stabilize the economy at the same time? Okay, do exactly as we say. You don't need to know what's going on"
with 30 billion or so in cash lying around, betting a few bil on a non-apocalypse and getting an incredibly fat coupon in the meantime isn't such a bad play.
One disgusting canvas seemed to depict a vast cross-section of Beacon Hill, with ant-like armies of the mephitic monsters squeezing themselves through burrows that honeycombed the ground. Dances in the modern cemeteries were freely pictured, and another conception somehow shocked me more than all the rest- a scene in an unknown vault, where scores of the beasts crowded about one who had a well-known Boston guidebook and was evidently reading aloud. All were pointing to a certain passage, and every face seemed so distorted with epileptic and reverberant laughter that I almost thought I heard the fiendish echoes. The title of the picture was, 'Holmes, Lowell and Longfellow Lie Buried in Mount Auburn.'
China
As the first user of fiat currency, China has had an early history of troubles caused by hyperinflation. The Yuan Dynasty printed huge amounts of fiat paper money to fund their wars, and the resulting hyperinflation, coupled with other factors, led to its demise at the hands of a revolution.
Actually, what you want to know is what are the debt service expenses on municipal debt outstanding, but it does not really matter because that is a small part of the picture of public finance. Most of the stimulus money that has been used to plug budget gaps has been applied toward offsetting health care and education expenses.
I think the administration way overestimated how quickly this crisis was going to affect state governments, the magnitude, and how quickly they were going to blow through the assistance provided.
Lucy, I manufacture culture for a living. Of course I get it. Leave the sociocultural analysis to the pros and stick to the escort pages and periodic table.
When does DeLong and the other high-priced faculty go on mandatory leave of absence? Must be soon, he's getting shriller every day. I don't think he's kidding about "runn ing the government".- really delusional.
It was obvious to me last week (or maybe two weeks ago). Take a look at Recovery.Gov Most of the money for HHS and unemployment is gone. I can't figure out if that is just money sent to the states; but they already blew through their stimulus money...
no, rob, i'm deep in the guts of the real thing, like it or not. don't get me started on this one - unless you're ready for a tribute to Don Simpson, Greatest Boomer of All Time.
That man was truly the Wagner of the late 20th century.
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 9:36 pm
no, rob, i'm deep in the guts of the real thing, like it or not.
Ahhh, but that's exactly the same answer you'd give if you were merely manufacturing the appearance of culture now isn't it? This just means you are good at your job and take it seriously.
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. is trying to avoid paying billions of dollars in fees to U.S. taxpayers for guarantees against losses at Merrill Lynch & Co., saying the rescue agreement was never signed and the funding never used. Regulators contend Bank of America owes at least part of a $4 billion fee it agreed to pay in January -- even without a completed legal document -- because the company benefited from implied U.S. backing on about $118 billion of Merrill Lynch assets, such as mortgage-backed bonds, people familiar with the matter said. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank says it owes the Treasury nothing, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are confidential.
Someone explain to me why it is right for us younger folks (I'm 28) to bail out the older folks? That does not make any amount of sense ever . Since when have kids been asked to pay to take care of their parents when the parents screwed up? The parents should be the ones feeling so much shame that they have to ask their kids for help; oh but its the parents racking up bills that the kids are even wondering "how am I going to pay this!?". Look; I can understand services that bail out and help children; but the flow of money should not go backward...
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 12:28 am Byzantine_Ruins,
I don't think they are getting it..
Eshu is a god of Chaos and Trickery, and plays frequently tempting choices for the purpose of causing maturation. He is a difficult teacher, but a good one[2]. As an example[3], Eshu was walking down the road one day, wearing a hat that was red on one side and black on the other. Sometime after he departed, the villagers who had seen him began arguing about whether the stranger's hat was black or red. The villagers on one side of the road had only been capable of seeing the black side, and the villagers on the other side had only been capable of seeing the red half. They nearly fought over the argument, until Eshu came back and cleared the mystery, teaching the villagers about how one's perspective can alter a person's perception of reality, and that one can be easily fooled. In other versions of this tale, the two tribes were not stopped short of violence; they actually annihilated each other, and Eshu laughed at the result, saying "Bringing strife is my greatest joy".
Someone explain to me why it is right for us younger folks (I'm 28) to bail out the older folks?
That's so cute.
"Those whom heaven helps we call the sons of heaven. They do not learn this by learning. They do not work it by working. They do not reason it by using reason. To let understanding stop at what cannot be understood is a high attainment. Those who cannot do it will be destroyed on the lathe of heaven." - Chuang Tse
My vote paid attention and I somehow ended up for voting for one of the crazy guys instead of one of the established guys... we learn about this system of rationale government, checks and balances, etc. etc... yet such a palpable fear in the system if someone from a wing of either party gets elected... ie. Kucinich and Paul... I say let the "crazy" guys have a shot... don't think that has happened for like what Teddy Roosevelt maybe?
YLSP (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 9:47 pm Someone explain to me why it is right for us younger folks (I'm 28) to bail out the older folks?
The answer is a lot of parents who were glad to get their kids "off the payroll" at 18 and taught them the "lesson" of self-reliance and independence get to die alone eating catfood, lol.
//The answer is a lot of parents who were glad to get their kids "off the payroll" at 18 and taught them the "lesson" of self-reliance and independence get to die alone eating catfood, lol.//
Maybe. As my father used to say [he is now dead]... "Some grow old and wise while others just grow old." Its a coin flip as to which class s/he will end up in.
josap (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 12:54 am
For the same reason I take care of my mom who is 77. For the same reason your parents raised you with the best they could offer.
No, not really. Many were stupid and selfish and will die the lonely deaths their lonely, selfish lives led them to.
50
The young fir that falls and rots
Having neither needles nor bark,
So is the fate of the friendless man:
Why should he live long?
The "Little House on the Prairie" meme of American existence will kill many people, and they'll deserve it. Proper relationships between parent and child run both ways.
//The "Little House on the Prairie" meme of American existence will kill many people, and they'll deserve it. Proper relationships between parent and child run both ways.//
Oh please ... this is hardly central planning ...
It is putting money into the economy which is a financial disaster ...
If it weren't central planning... then the money could stay right where it is now. The individuals that earned it could decide for themselves where and whether to spend it. These clowns spending our money were the most popular kids in High School (and eventually Harvard). That's all they have ever had going for them. I'm only bitter 'cause I've never been in that clique.
A significantly greater percentage of the American population is in some form of correctional control even though crime rates have declined by about 25 percent from 1988-2008.
Rather: Because a significantly greater percentage of the American population is in some form of correctional control (snip) crime rates have declined by about 25 percent from 1988-2008.
so after years and years of calling us "generation nothing" the baby boomers want us to fund their retirement and healthcare. fuck them. you reap what you sow.
"If I were running the government, I would be trying to make up that GDP shortfall right now: I would be rushing a clean $170 billion--$500 per citizen--aid-to-states -that-maintain-effort package through the congress this week. It would seem the right and the obvious thing to do."
This is exactly the right prescription ...
Even states that are managing to balance their budgets are cutting programs and jobs and / or increasing taxes ... This proposal would save hundreds of thousands of jobs and help tens of millions of people by saving programs.
If anything the proposal is too little ...
The best answer, is politically almost impossible right now. That is Single Payer Healthcare. This would remove health care costs from business, local and state governments, insure the under and uninsured, getting money right into the economy while giving a huge boost to consumer confidence ...There are many ways to pay for it that wouldn't hurt the economy going forward ...
(got offaled last thread)
Doctors in California's Central Valley were offered up to double what they were earning (and no malpractice insurance needed) caring for innocent Americans, to care for felons in our for-profit-prison-system.
Doctors in California's Central Valley were offered up to double what they were earning (and no malpractice insurance needed) caring for innocent Americans, to care for felons in our for-profit-prison-system.
Gee, sounds like "First, do no harm..." to me
Hypocritical Oafs
All week, the Administration has been down-playing Biden's comments about "misreading" the economy. First, it was about adjusting to the "learning curve." Then, it was a matter of allowing the stimulus to "kick in." If Obama comes back asking for another stimulus, the political fall-out is huge. In effect, they were (1) in fact of misreading the economy and (2) guilty of misreading how ARRA would work. Both show signs of incompetence. If Obama wants another stimulus, it will have to be done via the tax code, TARP, or some other package; going hat in hand to Congress is political suicide.
axelrod's probably wondering how the inept GOP checkmated them on Stimulus #3.
500 bucks won't cover most people's car payments in my neighborhood, let alone their mortgages.
Yet somehow, 70% of the children in the schools are on reduced/free lunch programs.
We are so screwed.
What a bunch of BS.
Keynesian excuse for their ongoing FAIL: "Hey, at least He isn't McCain."
It just astounds me that the people who admit now that they misread the situation and misdiagnosed the disease and mistreated the symptoms are now looking for more authority.
If central planning worked then the (former) USSR would now be the richest country on earth. Cuba would be a close second. Who do these morons think is paying for this stimulus?
China calls your bet, and raises you the pot
Preliminary calculations showed that new lending was 1.53 trillion yuan, the central bank said on its website yesterday, bringing total lending this year to 7.4 trillion yuan, far exceeding the country's initial full-year target of disbursing 5 trillion yuan in loans. Total lending so far this year amounted to almost one quarter of last year's GDP.
Market Skeptics: *****Bank Loans Exceed Full-year Target As China Prepares To Export Inflation*****
Who will win the inflation war first? Me thinks the Chinese. They need to buy lots of food/commodities.
So mortgage brokers, realtors, investment bankers, aerospace engineers, and lawyers are going to go to work on road constuction crews in this magical second half recovery? Half of the country can't fix its infrastucture after September.
Why would not full legal tender stimulus funds in the hands of the indebted citizen and taxpayer not go to liquidating debt?
C
When a doctor cares for felons in a medium-to-maximum security state prison, he/she must give up a whole day of work for security reasons. He/she must check in once and check out once that day. Also, the days are not always fixed and can vary. For this reason, it is hard for doctors (including shrinks) to work in the prison system and still maintain their practice on the outside. Doctors don't want to do it, and they only do it because of public service.
A shrink who works in the state prison where my son was at (for two months) told me this while I was visiting one day. He was pretty upset about it.
Lothar the Rottweiler
500 bucks won't cover most people's car payments in my neighborhood, let alone their mortgages.
Yet somehow, 70% of the children in the schools are on reduced/free lunch programs.
We are so screwed.
~~~~
Any proof or is this just more trickle down rhetoric ?
The admin has a problem now that we've effectively turned over the control of the economy to foreign governments. We can talk until we're blue in the face about what we should do, but the admin is probably concerned about the impact of further large spending on the dollar. They've most likely gotten a huge earful at international conferences.
Hu's your daddy?
If central planning worked then the (former) USSR would now be the richest country on earth.
If simplistic bashing of central planning worked, Somalia would be the richest country on earth. I'm always amused by people who've ridden skscrapers and aircraft bash central planning, as if those things could build themselves spontaneously. Why on earth would something as complex as a "global economy" self-assembly itself if a plane can't?
Question: Why do all societies wind up becoming profoundly stupid and impotent?
As for Biden's "gaffe" -- reminds me of all the so-called "gaffes" made by Howard Dean in 2004. But 8 out of 10 things the guy said was largely true (at the time). All that got lost with that stupid media-driven "scream" crap though.
I really wanted Dean to become president, not because I thought he'd be a great incarnation of POTUS, but because the entire world would have been forced to listen to his "gaffes" for four years. OH that would have been jolly good fun. He'd have been a one-termer, but the pandemonium would have been a hoot.
The common wisdom is that Biden has a tendency toward malaprop.
The truth is...he's honest.
CONJURE COMMENT
Conjure says, "The longer this thing lasts, the lower the multiplier will be for any stimulus."
"I guarantee you this much, and remember you heard it here first: if there is a second stimulus, the multiplier will be lower than for the present program."
"Bush and Co should have put forth a massive stimulus, which would have had a decent multiplier."
CR: Thank you ever so much for adding the actual unemployment directly onto their plot.
So here's a confession for you all: I believe that all leaders will make mistakes, but that good leaders will correct their mistakes faster than bad ones. That is my great hope for this administration.
kidbuck
Excellent! the question is to simple and so is the answer. Only the real greedy want to obscure the answer.
I wonder if we will go through the looking glass this autumn - lost in the haze last fall was the fact that the greenback had a simply spectacular performance. spx 1100, gold $1600 and eur/usd $2, anyone?
"they only do it because of public service."
I'm throwing my BS flag on that one.
Are they working for free?
I guarantee you this much, and remember you heard it here first: if there is a second stimulus, the multiplier will be lower than for the present program.
Sorry Conjure, I heard Joseph Tainter say it first. Diminishing marginal returns on investments in complexity.
"but that good leaders will correct their mistakes faster than bad ones."
So Geithner gets dumped in 2010 and the Fed shut down in 2011 as opposed to 2011 and 2012?
"it is hard for doctors (including shrinks) to work in the prison system and still maintain their practice on the outside. Doctors don't want to do it, and they only do it because of public service."
When a doctor goes to prison @ double his previous salary, why would they care about their practice on the outside?
Homedad,
How is that a problem? I like Chinese food. They only invaded Vietnam. Other than that they have stayed at home. Our leaders will become puppets to foreign masters? I thought they were already puppets?
It seems to me that the seemingly minor issue of a Rio Tinto employee being charged in China with the equivalent of a white collar elony (and other RT workers being detained by the Chinese) is not a minor issue. Australia is pretty peeved, and it has awakened the whole business world to the hazards of doing business with authoritarian Communists, who will use business people to accomplish political objectives.
homedad43
The ARRA was always an incumbent reelection ploy ...
Contracts and jobs for the politically connected and
a nice shot of cash early in the year to push econ stats for the election in November ...
It's really hard to make a meal ...
out of asphalt, concrete and steel ...
They only invaded Vietnam.
And Tibet. For starters.
@mal
Where does Tainter say that? Got a link?
We're very interested in what he has to say.
It's really hard to make a meal ...
out of asphalt, concrete and steel
I like that...a lot.
Because it is often day-work, not a full-time job, and it's often done on-demand or on short-term agreements.
mp: Just one of his four central principles from The Collapse of Complex Societies. Can be applied to stimulus packages, higher education, agricultural advances, scientific research...
Tibet. True. My mistake.
Nova:
Nothing against the Chinese, but they're like...Chinese. Could be Latvians, Ghanans or Australians.
It just pisses me off that we managed to screw the whole verklempt thing so badly that we've effectively surrendered our internal policy decisions to not necessarily friendly governments.
Ah well.
"if there is a second stimulus, the multiplier will be lower than for the present program.""
~~~~~
Not if the money is given to the states to keep jobs and programs going ....
I wouldn't call either stimulus ... I would call them triage !
I really hope O takes Geithner out sooner rather than later.
Fed won't go away, but the corrective action would be to cause re-privatization of the insolvents companies by informing BB of a strong desire to take those bulls by the horns.
I give the former decent odds, but the latter is probably not going to happen without some catalyzing event (and not after late 2011 regardless, due to reelection issues.)
jmho, probably out to lunch.
Back in reality, I found out that a young business associate (just a year or two out of school) has 180K of student-related debt. Not for a law or medicine or equivalent degree, either.
The grapes of wrath are starting to seriously ferment for the born-after-1980 crowd...
You know things are truly fucked, when felons get excellent standards of care that we can't get, for free.
Yes, and one lives in my house (for now). His car payment is 650/mo. Two months behind on rent, which is approx. 33% of the mortgage payment. Sweetarse deal and he still can't keep up while sucking down more of my money through utilities and not halving the amenities (cable, net. dtv).
So, good sir, looking at his car in the driveway, all the other cars in the driveways of my neighbors (and I have driven the entire subdivision and adjoining one where the houses are bigger and more expensive with the same said cars) and knowing what the housing costs are in a general way based on sales/comps, I can tell you this: people are fcuked and For Sale and For Rent signs continue to go up.
In a nutshell, don't buy an 07 Hummer or Escalade when you live in a house that costs less than 2x that price. It ain't gonna end well.
How can you throw your BS flag on it, if you've never actually been inside a prison where they hold hard-core medium-to-maximum security long-time felons?
It's a scary place for visitors.
Imagine what it's like for a doctor.
homedad43,
I know. Sad attempts at humor is all I can come up with. It is better than the anger which then spills over into my real life.
kidbuck
"If central planning worked then the (former) USSR would now be the richest country on earth. Cuba would be a close second. Who do these morons think is paying for this stimulus?"
~~~~~
Oh please ... this is hardly central planning ...
It is putting money into the economy which is a financial disaster ...
"Oh please ... this is hardly central planning ...
It is putting money into the economy which is a financial disaster ... "
+10. At least China is using their inflated dollars to buy commodities/food/African countries. We just give ours to.....anybody.
I really hope O takes Geithner out sooner rather than later.
Summers won't remove Geithner for the same reason Cheney didn't remove Rumsfeld. Confidence.
HollywoodHack: student loan debt is going to be a huge political thorn. Unfortunately, Obama and his Administration all have roots in higher ed, so I doubt that they think of themselves as overpriced debt-pushers.
"this is hardly central planning ..."
i think it is fair to say that the GSE-managed economy (and, in retrospect, C, BAC and AIG really were GSEs all along) combined the worst aspects of state planning and free markets and really don't help or hinder either ideological position.
I also have a brother who just got sentenced to a stretch in a VA state prison.
There's no such thing as excellent standards of care in a state prison.
You stand in a long line, often for months, and take whatever care is there when you get to the front of the line.
Medications can be prescribed for prisoners. But there is no monitoring of them by the same doctors from month to month.
HollywoodHack: If the grapes of wrath are fermenting for these kids, they have a long way to go yet.
I want you to take a few minutes to watch this video of how our "best and brightest" edumacated young Americans speak truth to power. Go ahead, watch it. Watch the whole thing if you dare. You may die laughing, but if you're like me, you'll want to slit your wrists instead.
YouTube - The Painful Last Minutes of the NYU Kimmel Occupation
Like who else is Australia going to sell iron to?
The Chinese are playing hardball, not a whole lot different than we have done, locking out competition in oh so many diverse fields overseas, just not as blatant.
I believe we have only two paths out of this and NO middle ground.
Option A)
Cease all bailouts, balance all budgets.. Mass chaos.. massive homelessness.. The US standard of living is dramatically reduced for decades. We hit rock bottom quickly and supply is dropped well below demand, then we start to rebuild.
Option B)
Cover it all up by providing US citizens enough printed money to make it all go away. $5000 per month per citizen for 2 years should work or you can take $100K upfront. All tax free. So a family of 5 could take $500K and clear all debts and likely have money to spare. Some will pay off debt, others will spend it all.. Some will deposit it in banks. All of those things help to fix everything. How much inflation happens is unknown, but we clear the balance sheet and then start rebuilding the currency from however low it falls.
Right now they are playing the middle and everyone is losing.
They simply screwed up. They funded every big government program that was on the shelf. The result is spending with no long term return in the way of a stronger or more efficient economy. Had they used $750 billion in invest in a stronger economy, then we would be see the results today and in future returns. Instead the money will revolve once, go away and we will be left with hefty bills and little to show for it.. It is unfortunate that Obama abandoned his financial advisers and went straight to the most left wing of his party. There is little that we can do now but accept the lower standards of living that will come from these poor decisions.
Diminishing marginal returns on investments in complexity.
It's important to determine what should be controlled at a central level and limit it to a minority of the overall structure. There's a balance between value from standardization (centralized controlled) and localized differentiation ("customization"). Central controllers perceive value of standardization because there's where they live but often don't balance it against value of localized control.
See this problem a lot in software in large organizations.
"Unfortunately, Obama and his Administration all have roots in higher ed"
well, more to the point, they're all baby boomers, so they naturally empathize with the UC admin or senior nurse making 300K/year than the kid with 100K of debt and the worst job market in 80 years.
the UC 'professional fees' were under 10/K year just 7 years ago. now, they're closer to 30K. sorry to extrapolate a natl situation from a uniquely californian one, but the rest of the country does slavishly follow our every trend a few years later...
I'm not sure how you know where I've been (or not) but a quick google reveals:
Receiver paid 7 more than state's prison director - Sacramento Politics - California Politics | Sacramento Bee
The top-paid doctor and nurse made $441,774 and $330,499, respectively. Of the 1,000 highest-paid state employees last year, more than half were corrections clinicians, based on state data.
"The top-paid doctor and nurse made $441,774 and $330,499, respectively. Of the 1,000 highest-paid state employees last year, more than half were corrections clinicians, based on state data."
Bingo was it's name-o...
Btw, China seems to be more afraid of an uprising than us. Strange, considering they're willing to run over their unarmed citizens with tanks/guns. Whereas in America, Geithner is openly giving money to the bankers, and Americans are ARMED to the teeth. Strange world.
Summers won't remove Geithner for the same reason Cheney didn't remove Rumsfeld. Confidence.
If Geithner is going, then Summers' job is also in the crosshairs.
"they have a long way to go yet."
oh, i know. they have a looooong way to go to achieve what an old-school marxist might call 'class consciousness', and may never get there. in any case, it is just about too late. the alarm bells really went off when the donut bill was passed 5 or so years ago, and just about everyone slept through it.
The one thing they all have in common is that last fall, THEY WERE ALL WRONG.
A reasonable point of view at this point, looking forward, is that THEY ARE STILL ALL WRONG.
@mal
Are you referring to Tainter's book, or something recent concerning the stimulus program?
In training, I had to go in the women's prison unit at the Galveston, TX state hospital. The guard asked if I wanted someone with me in the examining room. The patient was about 250 pounds, with AIDS and hepatitis, and she had a bad 'tude. The guard looked at me like I was a pussy when I said "Yes, I would".
"Geithner is openly giving money to the bankers"
I don't think of GS as bankers. They are more like an unelected supreme council. The USA may have more in common with Iran than any other nation at this point.
@mal
Are you referring to Tainter's book, or something recent concerning the stimulus program?
Another option that just occurred to me...
Rig Powerball so that every one that plays wins $250K once.
Cover it all up by providing US citizens enough printed money to make it all go away. $5000 per month per citizen for 2 years should work or you can take $100K upfront. All tax free. So a family of 5 could take $500K and clear all debts and likely have money to spare.
I've been espousing a one-time opt-out for Medicare for years. My dad turns 65 this December, and he'd opt-out if he could give the $200K to his 3-month old granddaughter. Instead, he'll be used as a cash cow for the medical industrial complex for the next 20 years.
They truly believe it's a game. The only way that video could have been any funnier/sadder is if these kids were magically transported to Teheran and their final plea for "democratic consensus process" was punctuated by a burst of machine gun fire from the Ayatollah's guards.
Oatmeal for brains. This is what the highest standard of living and "education" in the world produces.
China seems to be more afraid of an uprising than us
"Money" <> "food".
mmckinl
Just for you! Check out the poor policeman and fireman wages! The city went BK for the good of the public.
City of Vallejo's $100K-plus Earners
Welcome to the Real America!
If Geithner is going, then Summers' job is also in the crosshairs.
Obama is giving these thugs enough rope to hang themselves with.
I don't know if this is a plan, or noise in the system.
mal - I'd need some convincing that what Tainter wrote is fully applicable to "stimulus" in the current environment. Depends on how they propose to do it, in part. Depends on revealed preferences of utilization by the recipients.
C
"Strange"
not really. the bargain is this - party A lets party B rule with zero transparency and accountability and the continuing enrichment of corrupt petty officials as long as party B maintains a climate which allows for a stratospheric increase in living standards, largely through new jobs.
when those new jobs stop appearing, the bargain comes under serious stress. the situation in the USA is entirely different - we're duped and hypnotized by a two-party game while the financial elite milks future generations dry.
I had my eyes opened to the prison-industrial-complex in California, when I was at the dry cleaners and the whirligig went round and round and about every 10th article of clothing was a prison guards shirt or pants...
The multiplier will be lower because of FEAR.
Heard about the newest game?! It's called Ponzi! It's no fun unless EVERYONE PLAYS!
The debate here from the economic panel is incongruent, because they fail to address the reality of the shortfall related to the impacts of the recession on individuals and businesses. Suggesting that another $500 per family is out of line and suggests a dis-connection between theory and application -- just as The Obama Stimulus to add $13 per pay check for people that still have jobs. I see inflation in food and gas and thus the cost of living in this recession is not being taken into account. Giving someone $500 will cover two months worth of food costs -- and where are the jobs, where is the recovery?
"This is what the highest standard of living and "education" in the world produces. "
highest standard of living? really? what are our infant mortality rates lately?
this is what being educated by a generation of solipsistic technocrat baby boomers produces.
Just as the prison-industrial complex exists to keep brown kids stupid and keep them from effectively organizing, the higher-educational complex exists to keep white kids stupid (not to mention drunk) and to keep them from effectively organizing.
I go for a walk for a couple of hours and you have impromptu discussion on healthcare!
Ok.. here is the real problem
What is the purpose of medical care in a society?
A] Enrich it's providers and pauperize/ deprive/ abuse it's users? or
B] To provide very good and universal healthcare?
If you want A] you will GET A]
if you choose B] you can get B] for a much lower cost and better outcome than A]
It is about choice!
Lobbyist Ben Dover
Just for you! Check out the poor policeman and fireman wages! The city went BK for the good of the public.
City of Vallejo's $100K-plus Earners
Welcome to the Real America!
~~~~~
LOL !
Vallejo police and fire are NOT the typical salaries in the US ...
But people of your ilk find the exception to the rule and lie for all it's worth ...
Find that Welfare Mom driving the new Cadillac yet ?
Juvenal Delinquent,
China incarcerates fewer citizens (as a %) than California.
@mal,
That video is like watching Borat or Bruno. I hope it was a joke.
Jeebus, Asia stocks crashing, led down by Taiex, Kospi, Nikki made it to -1%+, regional aggs looking luridly elmo:
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
C
sheez. back to back posts with apostrophe violations
"Vallejo police and fire are NOT the typical salaries in the US ...
But people of your ilk find the exception to the rule and lie for all it's worth ...
Find that Welfare Mom driving the new Cadillac yet ?"
That's next month... Once government motors realizes that they have too many Caddy's they will start to loan them out to the "welfare to work program"
mp
The multiplier will be lower because of FEAR.
~~~~
The multiplier will be higher because most of the money will go right into the economy ...
If ...If it is given to the states to mend budgets and save programs ...
I'm not sure if OctoMom drives a Caddy or not.
Anyone know?
Obama is giving these thugs enough rope to hang themselves with.
That phrase usual means that they are being set up to fail.
I don't really believe that. I think that everyone believes the actions they are taking are the right ones. But it will be up to the leader to realize that a change is needed because the current path is not working well.
Or not.
Yes their live in boy friends mooching of her! Sorry it gets real easy to see it up front being a land lord in small town America. Yous should see the play toys at one of the Habitat for Humanity house here in town. Abuse all over the place.
No actually that was a real protest at NYU. Not a film school project. Real!
I'm a nurse practitioner that works in a prison system (they couldn't find a Doc to do this job). I serve as the health director of our community Jail (140, mostly state, inmates). The jail has a contract with a health provider group called southern health partners. This group then subcontracts me to come to the jail twice a month to see patients. I'm also on call for emergencies 24-7. I get paid a flat fee once a month (750.00, no withholding). SHP provides my malpractice coverage.
It's a rough gig, the only reason I do it is because my boss is related to the jailer and thought "we" should do it to help out the community.
I've noticed the local coppers looking more military-like in the fashion they dress. Pants tucked into boots paratrooper style, etc.
"The USA may have more in common with Iran"
What do they call czars in Iran?
CR,
Why doesn't your graph go to 11 (%)?
Spinal Tap - 11
YouTube - Spinal Tap - 11
When PK posted that same chart I left a comment at PK's site about that chart with unemployment with and without stimulus. Thank you CR, for putting up the actuals line in your post - because THAT is the point. PK contends that by looking at the forecast without stimulus curve and comparing it with the forecast WITH stimulus curve you can see that the stimulus wasn't going to make much of a difference even by Q3..... Yeah yeah but he totally misses that BOTH curves bear no resemblance to actuality.. By comparing two wrongs you can discern something ? You get a Nobel Prize in Economics for that I suppose - Sorry, he's a clever, humorous man and all that but he illustrates Taleb's statements about economists well.
-K
sadly, I agree. I've often noted that CA has a two-track educational system. One has insitutions in LA, Berkeley, Santa Cruz, San Diego, Irvine, Chico, Bakersfield... and the other in Folsom, Pelican Bay, San Quentin, Soledad, etc
@Broward
True, although I haven't seen <> in a while....took me a few seconds to realize it
(I confuse my symbols sometimes since I hold dual degrees in math and cs)
"Experts" or "Guardians" if you work backwards from the translation of the institution which uses the term.
Basel - say it aint so...
C
Interesting link..
The "old south" incarcerates at much higher rates than the north-east.
Texas has 4.6% of it's population under 'correctional supervision'.
and over 6% of georgians are on probation, and 0.9 % of arkansans are on parole.
Corrections Statistics for the State of California
Counterpointer - if you are still around - I was AWFK and missed your comment about Singapore on the previous thread
The Bberg article refers specifically to the Singapore GDP ("Gross domestic product rose an annualized 13.4 percent last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking 14.6 percent between January and March, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News") and to Asian economies in general ("Singapore and other economies in the region are forecast to report better second-quarter figures as about $2 trillion in stimulus worldwide helps stabilize overseas sales").
I am no expert on Singapore and do allow that the economists surveyed by Bloomberg can be wrong, but the odds of being VERY wrong for the report to be released tomorrow are not that high.
Same point is made by The Times of London
In Indonesia, household spending accelerated in the first three months of the year by 5.8 per cent — the fastest pace in a decade — lifted by government handouts in an election year. Singapore may have just suffered its worst recession, but the recovery is, thanks to buoyant regional trade, widely expected to be “V” shaped, with a 6 per cent contraction in 2009 followed by a 5 per cent expansion in 2010. Thailand and Taiwan are being tipped to make similar swings from recession to growth.
ADDED. Yes, the Asian stock indices in Asia are down 1-2%. So the GDP news might not be all that great - or it was expected. I can't really say "priced in" in a polite company anymore, can I?
Lucifer, have you looked at crime rates in some of the Southern cities lately?
It's not pretty, and not enough criminals actually do get incarcerated and held.
I don't know the answer but I do know there is serious turmoil in most major, and some mid-major, cities down here.
Credit bubble tends to drive differentiation as money chases ever-decreasing marginal utility. That's great but what it also does is lower shared context. CR's discussion group here is an excellent example of such a wide disparity of beliefs, experiences and solutions that there are probably no true answers here.
.
Ergo, we'll probably enter a period of forced standardization, which is what post-Depression Germany experienced. Fringe dwellers on the margin will be quashed and forced into a larger belief system. A lot of what's happening is related to changes in the media, I believe. From 1950 on, a strong consensus was driven the three television networks and morality codes.
.
The Internet has diffused that for almost two decades now. Ultimately you can derive all this from an obsessive examination of the Schramm communication model and some history. Visual diagrams here of what's happening -
.
.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=context_ideosphere_the_internet
.
omg. the "Kimmel 18"
Incarceration in the United States
Incarceration in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
....The United States has the highest documented incarceration rate,[3][4] and total documented prison population in the world.[5][6] As of year-end 2007, a record 7.2 million people were behind bars, on probation or on parole. Of the total, 2.3 million were incarcerated.[7] More than 1 in 100 American adults were incarcerated at the start of 2008. The People's Republic of China ranks second with 1.5 million, while having four times the population, thus having only about 18% of the US incarceration rate.[8][9].....
....American prisons and jails held 2,299,116 inmates as of June 30, 2007.[12] One in every 31 American adults, or 7.3 million Americans, are in prison, on parole or probation. Approximately one in every 18 men in the United States is behind bars or being monitored. A significantly greater percentage of the American population is in some form of correctional control even though crime rates have declined by about 25 percent from 1988-2008.[13] 70% of prisoners in the United States are non-whites.[14] In recent decades the U.S. has experienced a surge in its prison population, quadrupling since 1980, partially as a result of mandated sentences that came about during the "war on drugs." Violent crime and property crime have declined since the early 1990s.[15].............
My mother was state facillitator in california. Those prisoners deserve jack shit! They put themselves there, live with it! They replace organs, get new crowns, teeth etc...they are spoiled..They all need to rot... didn't know we have a case of bleeding hearts disease here! they wrote thier story, no need to sell it as a romance novel....
Doctors and nurses have all state holidays off in the system and have 3-6 guards in their premise at all times. While the doctors and nurses are off the guards that are assigned to that department play computer games, watch tv and eat...
6 guards doing nothing for practically 30 days of the year..we just pay them a lot of money to watch tv, everyone says prison guards have a tough job. Well if we just cut out all the friggin prisoners free time, weight rooms, tv, video etc...it would be not quite as tough....
Treating people as less than human and making it hard for ex-offenders to get jobs causes those issues.
Look.. we have rates of incarceration that makes China look good..
//Lucifer, have you looked at crime rates in some of the Southern cities lately?//
A friend in California, in Federal Law Enforcement went to FLETC (Federal Law Enforcement Training Center) in Georgia a few years ago for like 6 months, and he told me that crime there was 2 to 3x the levels of here in the Golden State, he felt.
MrM - looks like sample bias to me. I've got a different sample. I think it's less wrong, or maybe wrong in different ways, but not wrong like the article's sources are wrong.
/stops before rumsfeldian moment hits.
C
more importantly, how did i miss ryan franklin? he's having an amazing year.
Ultimately, you have to decide if you want to bitch about your personal concerns & losses or
fix the problem.
We're still well within the bitching stage.
Much, much more pain must happen to get people into the "Oh, god, please fix this already" stage.
When banksters destroy your life savings and MBAs destroy jobs, you have only yourself to blame.
//They put themselves there, live with it!//
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 9:32 pm
I've noticed the local coppers looking more military-like in the fashion they dress. Pants tucked into boots paratrooper style, etc.
Militarization of civilian police is straight out of the technological police state proscribed by the globalist agenda. Right along with raising their salaries well above the common folk (i.e. median wages) to buy their loyalty and investiture in a fundamentally corrupt system. These things can be averted but it gets more difficult to avoid this fate as time passes and these institutions persist in these directions.
Boys of Summers: Wait until next year!
mp - In a recent post CR linked to the Bberg interview of Roubini and Shiller, in which Shiller was also saying that the multiplier would have been greater last year and is getting smaller every month. Nevertheless he still argued for the second stimulus package.
The SS had better fashion sense, though..
//I've noticed the local coppers looking more military-like in the fashion they dress. Pants tucked into boots paratrooper style, etc.//
From CR's chart I clearly see a pattern emerging from early Q3 2007 with actual unemployment rate increases which were just about to head towards 5% -- at that point, unemployment edged back downward and then increased back above 5% and then, as we have seen, the rate has been headed North, where a slight break may occur before we continue the journey Northward. Maybe I read too much into that blip though?
Only with a functional and productive economic system.
//Militarization of civilian police is straight out of the technological police state proscribed by the globalist agenda//
Give it all to Buffett.
Are the flu shots part of the globalist agenda?
asia really dragged down the spx futures in the past few hours.
Lucifer
Treating people as less than human and making it hard for ex-offenders to get jobs causes those issues.
Look.. we have rates of incarceration that makes China look good..
//Lucifer, have you looked at crime rates in some of the Southern cities lately?//
~~~~~
The prison system could use a few more inmates ....
Hundreds if not thousands of banksters and politicians ... Start with Alan Greenspan, Phil Gramm and Tom Delay ...
Juvie, just read Nola.com or CommercialAppeal.com or any other number or TV websites (they do even more coverage).
I'm sorry, but it's just getting to ridiculous levels and with a declining economy is only going to get worse.
People being carjacked, robbed, raped, and mugged within a 5-mile radius of me is up.
The biggest surprise to me related to inmates is the large number of mentally ill (bipolar, schitzophrenia) who are in there for drug charges. I've always suspected they were self medicating on the street. Sad situations. Most have Hepatitis C as well, nasty virus that.
Oh, and once I'm in, I'm in. No cell phone. Makes caring for my outside patient's difficult.
I think most guards are professional and mean well.
mmckinl,
guillotines are the more optimal solution for banksters.
Per Wiki:
The 1976 swine flu outbreak, also known as the swine flu fiasco, or the swine flu debacle, was a strain of H1N1 influenza virus that appeared in 1976. Infections were only detected from January 19 to February 9, and were not found outside Fort Dix.[1] The outbreak is most remembered for the mass immunization that it prompted in the United States. The strain itself killed one person and hospitalized 13. However, side-effects from the vaccine caused 25 deaths.
1976 swine flu outbreak - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"The prison system could use a few more inmates ....
Hundreds if not thousands of banksters and politicians "
Some thing we can agree on! Now that is free thinking.
Doc Holiday (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 9:49 pm
Are the flu shots part of the globalist agenda?
I hope not, Doc. I so want the nutters to be wrong about this.
I think most guards are professional and mean well.
Did you leave out a comma? I read that as:
I think most guards are professional and mean, well.
Looked at your 401k statements recently?
//People being carjacked, robbed, raped, and mugged within a 5-mile radius of me is up.//
I'm curious what state you work in, Bo.
Because it would seem that maybe your boss is getting kickbacks...
The Nuremberg Defense?
//I think most guards are professional and mean well. //
Doc Holiday (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 7:49 pm
Are the flu shots part of the globalist agenda?
Is that what they are trying to call the RFID implant program? Clever.
mal - I'd need some convincing that what Tainter wrote is fully applicable to "stimulus" in the current environment.
Wow, I didn't know this was a Tainter literate crowd.
HomeGnome,
The CDC was wrong in 1976.. why not now? It is a much more publicity seeking, power hungry organization now..
the Dukes of Moral Hazard
Lucifer
Looked at your 401k statements recently?
~~~~
People would rather be deceived than take action ...
Until they hear " Daddy, I'm hungry ... "
And can't do a damn thing ...
Locked and ended up in a double post
MrM- "In a recent post CR linked to the Bberg interview of Roubini and Shiller, in which Shiller was also saying that the multiplier would have been greater last year and is getting smaller every month."
Thanks. I'll check it out.
I am not, by the way, opposed to a second stimulus program, but think the fear factor will be significant going forward.
The flu shot is actually a two-part thing, so with the added confusion, they might as well add a chip implant.
mmckinl,
It is always those gypsies, socialists.. and all those who are not like us..
//People would rather be deceived than take action//
Chit implants for you Californians...
Hoops, will he listen to you?
My only criticism is that I fear for bonds too.
Absolutely. He knows that I correctly called the downturn and each and every major bank months before it officially failed.
I'm guiding him out of his 401k plan which has no choices except for 100% equities and into something more self-directed.
One thing that kills me is how much hard work it is to get people to listen to your advice, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that you've got some idea of what's going on.
they wish!
//Chit implants for you Californians//
"I'm curious what state you work in, Bo.
Because it would seem that maybe your boss is getting kickbacks... "
Ha, maybe. Guess I could try to blackmail, see what I can get
. Oh, I live in the blue grass state, proud owners of 1 billion in debt this year for a state with only 4 million residents.
Mrs. Gnome tells me it's sleepy time.
Later.
I've noticed the local coppers looking more military-like in the fashion they dress
Seen that, too, not in dress but attitude and action. But if you look closely, you'll see those guys are young and often scared spitless. There's almost certainly some sort of warnings floating around to them. They're often travelling pairs now. I watched traffic stop in downtown Boise on Saturday and the second trooper practically smelled of fear as he kept his back to the suspect & other cop, watching the sidewalk crowd.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 7:56 pm
Chit implants for you Californians...
Intravenous is not how the chits are being pushed into the taxpayers.
The multiplier will be lower because of FEAR.
In the alternative, the multiplier will be lower because of the increasing uselessness of adding additional debt. I think we passed $7 of debt per $ of GDP. The inverse of this relationship has been trending linearly downward and should soon (~1 year) cross zero, meaning infinitely more debt required to increase GDP, i.e., stimulus stops working entirely.
I think longwaver hit the nail on the head, Surprised it received no discussion. I think the gov has 2 choices. Cease all bailouts immediatley and take the "big bath", or print money like crazy and hand it out NOW. I mean, lot's of money. None of this bullshit $500 tax rebate shit. More like several thousand dollars per person. 10 sounds like a good round thousand number. Seriously, this dicking around isn't cutting it and the bailiuts just encourage people to buy guns and become more cynical, if possible.
Obama talked the big Change game. Time for him to put up or STFU.
ps. Had a couple glasses of wine. A little off balance right now, But honest.
One thing that kills me is how much hard work it is to get people to listen to your advice
See it the memes.
Belief systems are powerful precisely because they've been exposed to a Darwinian process of selection.
I have to admit, it usually surprised me, too.
Much more powerful than anyone realizes and I suppose it's true of all of us in our core beliefs.
All hail Goldman Sachs! We, who will pay higher taxes, salute you!
The Geithner put is paying off - why not to take the risk if the government will always be there for you?
From NY Times
Most of Wall Street, and America, is still waiting for an economic recovery. Then there is Goldman Sachs.
Up and down Wall Street, analysts and traders are buzzing that Goldman, which only recently paid back its government bailout money, will report blowout profits from trading on Tuesday.
Analysts predict the bank earned a profit of more than $2 billion in the March-June period, because of its trading prowess across world markets. If they are right, the bank’s rivals will once again be left to wonder exactly how Goldman, long the envy of Wall Street, could have rebounded so drastically only months after the nation’s financial industry was shaken to its foundations.
The obsessive speculation has already begun, along with banter about how Goldman’s rapid return to minting money will be perceived by lawmakers and taxpayers who aided Goldman with a multibillion-dollar cushion last fall.
“They exist, and others don’t, and taxpayers made it possible,” said one industry consultant, who, like many people interviewed for this article, declined to be named for fear of jeopardizing business relationships.
...
Traders said Goldman capitalized on the tumult in the credit markets to reap a fortune trading bonds. It profitably navigated a white-knuckled run in stock markets. It bought and sold volatile currencies, as well as commodities like oil. And it reaped lucrative fees from the high-margin business of underwriting stock offerings, which surged this year as other, more troubled financial institutions raced to raise capital.
...
But to a degree unique among its peers, Goldman has turned the crisis to its advantage. Its perennial rival, Morgan Stanley, has refused to gamble in the markets and, as a result, is expected to post a humbling quarterly loss. The giants Citigroup and Bank of America, still in hock to the government, are struggling to regain their footing. Banks like Merrill Lynch, now owned by Bank of America, ran into trouble trying to replicate Goldman’s success.
Richard Bookstaber, a former hedge fund executive and author of a “A Demon of Our Own Design,” wonders if Goldman’s resurgence will prompt other banks to push once again into riskier forms of trading, possibly at their peril.
“Someone takes risks and makes money — maybe they were smart, maybe they were lucky,” Mr. Bookstaber said. “But then everyone else feels like they need to take the same risks.”
While others are shying away from risks, Goldman is courting them. A common measure of risk-taking at Goldman and other banks is known as value at risk, which estimates how much money a firm might lose on a single day. At Goldman, that figure rose by more than 20 percent in the first quarter. Analysts predict Goldman’s V.A.R. ran high in the second quarter as well.
"I think longwaver hit the nail on the head, Surprised it received no discussion. I think the gov has 2 choices"
Agree with both of you; but as somebody pointed out in an earlier thread (thanks btw), Obama is doing the cautiously incremental approach. Something has to force his hand. Personally I think the State IOU issues will soon. Once the other states realizes that California is being bailed out discreetly via banks accepting the papers, they'll clamor to issue IOUs. Then Obama will have to make a clear statement.
If the rest of the 19 Hijackers think they can take the same risks as Glodmans and succeed then they are absolutely out of their minds.
C
Where do you think the AIG money went? Bet it was GS.
The Banks want more profit on Cali IOU's and get the FEDs to back them up There will be the first of the bail out that's not a bail out pushed on us.
this is nuts. US taxpayers are guaranteeing a $1B loan made by JPM to an arm of the Indian government. Well at least Boeing gets to sell some airplanes.
Nacil raises $1 billion from JPMorgan - Home - livemint.com
State-run National Aviation Co. of India Ltd, or Nacil, the operator of Air India, is raising about $1 billion (around Rs4,870 crore) in the form of an 11-year loan from US bank JPMorgan Chase and Co. to fund a part of its ambitious fleet expansion exercise.
The loan, guaranteed by the US Export-Import Bank (US Ex-Im Bank), according to two bankers familiar with the transaction, may help the cash-strapped airline save about $1 million a month in interest costs. Nacil posted a Rs5,000 crore loss in fiscal 2008-09.
"I think longwaver hit the nail on the head, Surprised it received no discussion. I think the gov has 2 choices. Cease all bailouts immediatley and take the "big bath", or print money like crazy and hand it out NOW. I mean, lot's of money. "
~~~~~
Without serious structural change to the economy, tax policy, trade policy, empire strategy and health care
this is only a temporary fix ...
Not sure if this was posted before it seems like they have been planning a world currency since 96 United Future World Currency (united future world currency , moneta unica mondiale , moneta unica , UNITED FUTURE WORLD CURRENCY , MONETA UNICA MONDIALE , MONETA UNICA , United Future World Currency , Moneta Unica Mondiale , Moneta Unica)
My issue is that at no point will we ask why we didn't choose default. instead, we'll be presented with a salami-sliced economic "stimulus" plan whose primary effect is to rob the nation of its policy flexibility, further indebt future generations and line the nest of whatever interest can get itself in the path of the money hosepipe.
At each step of the way, we'll hear that if we hadn't made this mistake, the effects would have been much worse. As if this crisis was not a direct result of a collective decision not to take our medicine after 9/11 and the .com crash.
At what point will advocates of these policies admit they have the blood of America's future on their hands, and that this stimulus spending is the mortgage bubble of the current day? After the dollar crashes? After Fannie and Freddie crash? After PBGC goes under? When will we hear something other than "whocoodanode?"
Without serious structural change to the economy, tax policy, trade policy, empire strategy and health care
this is only a temporary fix ...
The choice really is a return ot a Jeffersonian economy, which means no aircraft carriers or 747s but pure freedom and disassociation of propagated side effects (The Libertarian model) or
something like Europe and Asia have.
"Not sure if this was posted before it seems like they have been planning a world currency since 96 http://www.futureworldcurrency.com/"
~~~~
Of course they are ... Countries now have the sovereign right to print their own money but they delegate it to private Central Banks ...
With a world currency the banksters now have their own currency and can ruin any individual country that doesn't play ball ....
There is something critical missing in our criminal justice system.
To understand it, realize that you can't just dump long-term hard-core convicted felons on the street, no matter how bad your state budget crisis is.
What's missing is a cost-benefit analysis at the time charges are filed or plea/sentencing takes place.
For example, a 10-year stretch in a state prison system might cost the taxpayers of VA something like $60,000 a year, or $600,000.
The DA could care less. It's not his job description. He gets paid to convict and lock up.
And that's the way it should be. There's lots of problems in asking DAs to do their job and also evaluatecosts.
But there could be a separate cost/benefit officer, who speaks to the judge with the same (or almost) as much clout as a DA.
For example, the DA wants 10 years but the cost/benefit officer tells the court we should do 6.
Given where state budgets are, and their long-term bleak outlook, it should happen.
I think it will happen, if powerful people would just listen to me, for once.
Sounds to me like all the lib economists are pressin' hard for a command economy.
What use is an economist if we end up with the government running the entire low velocity ec0nomy ? They are shillin' for a program that ushers themselves out of work.
Byzantine_Ruins
It's called : No De-Leveraging at any cost ...
Brought to you by Obama's banksters ...
Just say no to drugs:
Swine flu vaccine rushed through safety checks
Swine flu vaccine rushed through safety checks - Times Online
A swine flu vaccine will be fast-tracked for use in Britain within five days once it is developed, and 130 million doses are on order.
The Department of Health expects to have enough vaccine this year to give it to half the population. Further supplies will be available if needed. Each person will need two doses of the vaccine, unless one single jab is found to provide high rates of immunity.
Ok, I'm beat. Thanks to CR, thanks to the board. Snark quality was excellent.
nytol
C
From an older thread about Chefscorts... when I lived in Beano one of the tenants at the condo I concierged at was a Tremaine, as in the book of some fame. Old money.
He was closing in on 70 and one night a new Benz pulled into a parking spot that didn't have a Benz registered so I had to go out and check things. The two of them had already hopped in the elevator when I caught them going up on the first floor (ground level, one stop). Old boy was blitzed and the chick was impossibly perfect.
When I tried asking/explaining how I'd let the parking spot go for an hour when the true owner pulled up to park, and the resultant explanation was that it was his private nurse and he needed immediate privacy/attention to receive his medicine, I knew what was up.
Solution was to put the car of the parking spot owners in the temp spot, and not ask questions about the old fart and his tart. That was about as obvious as it got.
You're welcome, Lucifer.
It has been my experience that to get people to listen to your
advice, you have to charge for it.
Lothar, why is the sponger still there?
bearly
Sounds to me like all the lib economists are pressin' hard for a command economy.
What use is an economist if we end up with the government running the entire low velocity ec0nomy ? They are shillin' for a program that ushers themselves out of work.
~~~
Command economy ... Oh please ....
How about an economy not run by and for the banksters, the MIC, Big Ag and Health Care Incorporated ...
Lothar, that will be
$100.
Sounds to me like all the lib economists are pressin' hard for a command economy.
Your side made that choice by acting as predators without self-control. You turned me, my sister, my brother and my parents into Democrats by gutting jobs and shouting out
"I AM THE SMARTEST MAN IN THE WORLD!"
Look, guys... Food, water, and shelter are all sorta like police and fire - basic services for the public good. Work on getting me those three for free, then come talk to me about free healthcare. And, I don't want just any house. It needs to be among the best house in the world. Now, get with it!
Thank you!
But the spending will never stop. We'll always overpay for defense and both parties are like drunken sailors with their pet projects. They are already printing all the money they want for shit like this, why don't they take it a little bit further and print a bunch more and drop it from copters, like BB said he would do? For more worthwhile projects, like my family? By the time the real SHTF we'll all be dead but we'll have enjoyed watching Weeds on 142" plasmas eating stuffed steak burritos and playing foosball in the living room of our mcmansions. It sure is a lot better than what I'm looking at now. Bailing out only filthy rich asswipes and intentionally unemployed miscreants and pigfilth collecting their SSI cuz they're so fat from a lifetime of Mickey D's and HFCS. The finger to those people as well as the spoiled assholes.
Again, a little wound up. Sorry. I'll switch to Pinot Noir. It's the elegant grape and should soothe me a bit.
I'm still a Repub, 'cause I don't wanna be a Dem.
can someone help me with this by starting a party aimed at the
middle?
"can someone help me with this by starting a party aimed at the
middle?"
~~~
There is no middle .......
joe in flyover,
Grapes contain uric acid. Now liked to heart attacks. So should we ban it as a potential health problem?
I am on my 3rd H2o cocktail.
LL - 100 dollars was about what it cost for me to open the door for them for two hours.
That dirty old man paid a premium for his hookup in his only-visited-for-hookups-and-trysts- property.
You don't live on Beacon Hill without a lot of money or little sense.
His money was inherited; judge yourself on his sense!
I meant to get rid of the sponger. Why isn't he gone?
Nitey-nite.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 10:23 pm
I'm still a Repub, 'cause I don't wanna be a Dem.
can someone help me with this by starting a party aimed at the
middle?
Depends- are you a conservative leberal, or a liberal conservative?
In response to your post in the previous thread, I'm still around, but without Tanta's steel toed bunny slippers to keep the punters in line, the threads don't hold my interest anymore. I only posted in the last thread because it happened in my backyard, so to speak.
Oops, still here. I could be either one.
Liz, gotcha. I'm soft like that, but deadlines are imminent. Some things have been moved out. When he really can't pay come Aug. 1st, buh-bye.
Red wine was supposed to be good your your heart.
Now it isn't??
Must leave, must leave.
The need to differentiate ourselves from the poor and be considered middle class is the crime committed by the overleveraged consumer.
I give the poor kudos for just living the life available to them. Trailer parks, poor health, plastic toys and fast food was their lot so they took it. Too bad that obesity and being unattractive was part of the deal.
The unproductive among us who are part of the service economy have done much more harm to the financial well being of this country then the poor. Think about who really benefits and where the taxpayer money goes before you make up a villain of those who have few advocates.
It's said politicians face two choices, be a liar or be a hypocrite. People who point fingers at their fellow humans without a little critical thinking or self inspection face a similar choice.
link to Tainter interview:
http://www.archaeologychannel.org/commentary/Tainter.html#interview
There will be no massive stimulus for the general public. Period.
There will be no sudden ending of throwing money at banks, insure co, car co, etc.
Here is the deal, in my opinion. If either of the above happens people will KNOW we are screwed and they will panic. Panic big time. The primary objective is to not let people panic. Panic takes out governments, high paid bankers and anyone else the public at large decides to hang in the square.
There will be a 2nd stimulas as soon as the public is screeming "Do something, do anything" as they can't keep a roof over their heads or buy food for the kids. Then they will get the bread to go with the free cable TV. No one will get a bakery, but they will get a loaf.
It may take forever, we may never "recover" whatever that means now. But there will not be blood in the streets.
bearly (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 11:17 pm
Sounds to me like all the lib economists are pressin' hard for a command economy.
Why are you are using the word "lib" and meaning it at this late date?
The problem with a command economy isn't that it can't work. They can work quite well.
The problem is that instituted on a national scale, you either get a single idea which might be good or bad but which is going to become reality regardless of its quality (the First Sovereign Emperor vs. Kim Jong Il), or you get a system where there's only one political trough to compete for to get access to every resource in your society (Soviet gangsterism, or the Nazis).
The problem with a command economy in the America of today will be that the SOCIETY can't accomplish anything, and so the system does nothing but facilitate looting. The Republicans also accomplished nothing except ruining the country's institutions, spending it into penury, and entangling it in expensive foreign wars during their period of ascendence. Criticizing the Democrats for doing the same is just missing the point that this is the milieu of your nation.
Anybody seen this piece of propaganda yet?
Goldman Sachs Likely to Post Huge Profits, Analysts Say
For Goldman, A Swift Return To Lofty Profits - NY Times
"In essence, Goldman has managed to do again what it has always done so well: embrace risks that its rivals feared to take and, for the most part, manage those risks better than its rivals dreamed possible."
Un-freakin' believable...
More Tainter:
Deseret News | Professor at USU says U.S. society may collapse
question is, did Buffett know about GS's potential trading profits, with its clever fast software, when he decided to buy in?
steinly (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 8:50 pm replyIgnore userquestion is, did Buffett know about GS's potential trading profits, with its clever fast software, when he decided to buy in?
probably.
Externalized Costs (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 11:34 pm
The need to differentiate ourselves from the poor and be considered middle class is the crime committed by the overleveraged consumer.
I give the poor kudos for just living the life available to them. Trailer parks, poor health, plastic toys and fast food was their lot so they took it. Too bad that obesity and being unattractive was part of the deal.
Blackface! - A History of Minstrel Shows
Over time, minstrel shows developed into a standard format of three parts, developed by Edwin Christy, incorporating skits and songs performed in an imitation of black "plantation" dialect. In the first part, the show began with a "walkaround" -- the company marching onto the stage singing and dancing. A staple of walkarounds was the cakewalk. White audiences loved the cakewalk, not realizing that it originated with plantation slaves imitating their master's walk.
The troupe was then seated in a semicircle, with one member on each end playing the tambourine or the bones. The endmen, as they were called, named Brudder Tambo and Brudder Bones, engaged in an exchange of jokes between the group's songs and dances. Eventually it became customary that Tambo was slim, whereas Bones was fat. A character called Mr. Interlocutor sat in the middle of the group, acting as the master of ceremonies. As the interlocutor took his place in the middle of the semicircle he uttered the time-honored phrase: "Gentlemen, be seated. We will commence with the overture." During the performance he conducted himself in a dignified manner that contrasted well with the behavior of the rowdy endmen.
Part two was the variety section, which included singers, gymnasts, and other novelty acts. A preposterous stump speech served as the highlight of this second act, during which a performer spoke in outrageous malapropisms as he lectured. Reminiscent of the hilarious pomposity of Zip Coon, the stump speech deliverer aspired to great wisdom and intelligence, but always ultimately appeared foolish and ignorant.
Part three ended the show with a one-act play, typically a vignette of carefree life on the plantation. After Uncle Tom's Cabin was published and the play became famous, minstrel shows appropriated the major characters for sketches that changed the abolitionist themes in the original into an argument for the supposedly benign character of slavery.
nice, byz. definitely commedia dell'arte american-style, and the origin (or conduit) of much of our culture here.
kidbuck
"If central planning worked then the (former) USSR would now be the richest country on earth. Cuba would be a close second. Who do these morons think is paying for this stimulus?"
hey lobbyist bend over please read this too
the most efficient economy is a command economy, thats why the united states and most other nations switch to central planning in war times
what obama is doing now has elements of a command economy...we are in an emergency and when (if) we get to the otherr side the right thing for the parties in power to do is wind down much of the alphabet soup programs being invented...but not all
btw, the economies that are most effcient at distributing the greatest amount of wealth to the most people are a combination of markets, and social-democratic economic institutions...like exists in most northern european countries especially norway sweeden, denmark finland, and to a lesser extent several other nations
ps the nazis were despicable in every way but developed a rapidly growing economy...in the early years russia (ussr) grew at a startling pace but then, like we would expect, lack of initiative, freedom and incentives ripped the economy
Nikkei comes back from lunch with not enough rice wine. Unhappy.
re: mal re post of the NYU Kimmel occupation video. Thank you very very much for posting that. Truly astonishing - when I remember the protests from my time - at the LSE, at East Anglia, this is well.. well we'd need a facilitator ( did he REALLY say and mean facilitator ?) to allow me to properly vent. Amazing. and thanks.
There is no hope with this generation. Roll on the next one..
-K
Warren Buffett should have never bought into GS, IMHO ; he always maintained that he only buys businesses he understands; I am assuming Warrent Buffet does not comprehend and stand behind Wall St.'s well connected master thieves.
I hope I live to see the day when GS folks will be running down Wall St. with a pitch fork bearing mob giving chase.
If BHO does not get my vote next time around, it wil be due to palling around with GS!
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 12:00 am
nice, byz. definitely commedia dell'arte american-style, and the origin (or conduit) of much of our culture here.
The Minstrel Show as Sentimental and Nostalgic
After the Civil War, white minstrels concentrated their portrayals of Southern Negroes on the nostalgic stereotype of "Old Darky." Whether these characters had gone North and then returned or had never left, they found their old plantation gone, destroyed by the war. Aged, weak, and alone, they recalled the happy, carefree prewar days, which further underscored the tragedy of the destruction of the plantation. Since it was gone, audiences did not have to hear protests against the more unfortunate aspects of plantation life -- like slavery. Yet they could still bask in its warmth through the memories of the Old Darky. They could envy his carefree life of perpetual childhood -- singing, dancing, and frolicking. The could even momentarily share his simple world, free of the worries, insecurities, and responsibilities that they had to face. At the same time, they could feel comfortably superior to him and certain that, whatever else changed in their lives, he would always be their subordinate. Through him they could also mourn for lost simplicity, order, and control. Although he certainly did not offer an antidote for their problems, the Old Darky provided a temporary diversion, a reassuring certainty that whites desperately needed and clung to.
"There is no hope with this generation."
Agreed, sadly. The kids born between '82 and '02 will bear the full brunt of boomer misrule, and get the short end of the stick in every way imaginable. I do have hope for the kids born since '01, however. The dollar should have sufficiently devalued by 2030 and Joe Boomer will mercifully be expiring around that time. That means that they'll be able to invest in a newly credible and resurgent America with their prime earning years 2040-2055.
ah, but don't forget Byz, just as commedia dell'arte gave us "i pagliacci", so did minstrel culture give us "porgy and bess" and, ultimately, rock and roll.
perhaps real swine, but real pearls, too.
i think Buffett knows allot more than he lets on. Think about it.
The WSJ reported on Friday that only 8 of the 51 economists it surveyed indicated that additional stimulus was necessary.
WSJ.com Economic Forecasting Survey Shows Stimulus Opposition - WSJ.com
How many of these idiots said there was no housing bubble in 2005?
//The WSJ reported on Friday that only 8 of the 51 economists it surveyed indicated that additional stimulus was necessary.//
There's too many economists in this economy
I had the same reaction, FWIW. But just the same, it is a vocal minority that is pushing additional stimulus now.
Bond Girl,
If we had dropped 13.9 Trillion from Helicopters, it might have worked.
hollywood hack
yeah them boomers
like greenspan and mozillo
btw bush 2 and clinton only make it into the boomer ranks by a few months...both born in the 40s
and the boomer catagory is is used to encompasss the most number of years than any other gen depicted...i recall 46 thru 64? is that right...checking
Kinda obvious the next bailout has to be the states, and indirectly the local government level.
Governments will provide the backstop to the economy they are supposed to do under a depression style economic rescue plan.
What Krugman is saying is that we need Plan C, and we need it now. No more pussyfooting around.
As for the Nopublicans, well fork 'em.
Fire Geithner, he doesn't get it. The perils of a neoclassical economic education is you end up in Milton Friedman paralysis.
You have to backstop the states- we are getting ready to shutdown everything nonmandated by the Feds- including a tremendous amount of support for education.
Employment by the State of Arizona has been dropping for two years- and this is stimulus?
When you face a 50% shortfall in what is your discretionary budget- combined with soaring federally mandated poverty costs, something has to give- starting with a tax increase, to be followed by fee increases, and most likely more tax increases.
Zero stimulation at this rate- the couple of jobs from building roads are more than offset by layoffs in other areas.
This is the reality- we are still waaaaay behind the 8-ball, with triage, not stimulus.
This is the new economy- the old one is dead and gone.
Someday this war's gonna end...
or GS would have simultaneously employed a fleet of helicopters with massive vacuums underneath pointing up while the fed looked the other way.
i think Buffett knows allot more than he lets on. Think about it.
If Buffett's investing in GS was with the full knowledge of how GS stands to get great amounts of money from the USG, i.e. taxpayer's money, then this does not bore well for his legacy and future. Truth will come out, I do believe.
Ok so we bail out the states; who is going to bail out the municipalities? How much municipal debt is there in California? The $26, 27, 28B is only the state debt.
I agree Citizen Allen M. Obama will be eating humble pie on that one.
no, more like:
W, DeLay, Rove, Abramoff, Norquist, Dimon, Ken Lewis, Bernanke, Geithner, Obama, Clinton, and 70% of the current congress...
Just off the top of my head. Joe Boomer was born in 1955. Let's just call Bill the very first Boomer for argument's sake as of August 19, 1946, and Geithner the last as of August 18, 1961. Makes for a nice even 15 years on the nose.
"Warren Buffett should have never bought into GS, IMHO ; he always maintained that he only buys businesses he understands;"
looks like he'll do well from the deal, for now at least
question is, which is worse: that he did not know what GS do, and bought in anyway?
or that he did know, and that is why he bought in?
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 12:09 am
ah, but don't forget Byz, just as commedia dell'arte gave us "i pagliacci", so did minstrel culture give us "porgy and bess" and, ultimately, rock and roll.
How to Make an Elegua
No matter which branch of the Santeria tradition is followed, Elegua always
inhabits a stone. It could be a natural stone or a cement form. These are the
instructions for constructing an Elegua out of natural stone.
Find a medium size stone, one about the size and shape of a large potato is
ideal. The stone should be collected next to a railroad track, at a crossroads, or
under a coconut palm.
Find the natural base of the stone, the surface where it will come to rest upright
by itself. Bore a perfectly round hole into the base of the stone about two inches
deep by an inch in diameter.
Cut the head off a white chicken and let the blood drip onto the stone. Make an
Omiero with May rainwater, coconut milk and the herbs that belong to Elegua.
Wash the stone thoroughly in the Omiero and leave it to soak for 24 hours.
Select three small precious stones. All gems belong to Elegua. Place the three
gems in the hole in the stone along with three small pieces of silver, three small
nuggets of gold, three small pieces of coconut, some feathers from the
sacrificed chicken and a small personal piece of gold jewelry.
Seal the hole with cement made with sand from a crossroads, Guinea pepper
and cemetery dust.
When the cement is dry, paint the rock black. Crown it with a fighting cock's
spur, with the curve towards the back. Give it cowrie shell eyes.
Take a white rooster and the rock to a palm tree growing by a crossroads.
Sacrifice the rooster and let the blood drip on the stone. Bury the rooster three
inches deep at the base of the palm.
After three days, dig up the rooster and wash it in a flowing river, first asking
Oshun's permission by tossing a live white chicken into the river along with a
little honey.
Elegua is ready to be stationed by the door.
I do think Buffett knows exactly how GS works and planned to earn money.
He said he doesn't invest in what he doesn't understand. I will take him at his word.
He also is (Or just about is) the richest guy on the planet. No one gets that kind of money by being ignorant.
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 7:16 pm
reply ignore user
Btw, China seems to be more afraid of an uprising than us. Strange, considering they're willing to run over their unarmed citizens with tanks/guns. Whereas in America, Geithner is openly giving money to the bankers, and Americans are ARMED to the teeth. Strange world.
My wife says there is an old Chinese saying "kill a chicken to show the monkey". which basically means the govrnment makes an example of what can happen to you if you don't follow the rules. Chinese riots can grow exponentially overnight especially during economically turbulent times. The Chinese government tends to use overwhelming force to send a message to citizens inside the country.
Last time we were in Beijing we got caught in a very near riot just from a traffic jam that resulted in people rushing to get over a pedestrian traffic overpass. It can get bad very fast in China over seemingly minor things.
relevant in terms of cuban and brazilian culture, not so much here. which is why rock and roll is so much cooler (though i loves me some beny more and jobim, don't get me wrong...).
Probably what happened: GS calls up Buffet. "Mr. Buffet, would you like to make alot of money and stabilize the economy at the same time? Okay, do exactly as we say. You don't need to know what's going on"
with 30 billion or so in cash lying around, betting a few bil on a non-apocalypse and getting an incredibly fat coupon in the meantime isn't such a bad play.
For the amount of money he put in - you bet he knew. Otherwise he is just a fool with money and you know how that ends.
Byzantine_Ruins,
I don't think they are getting it..
Totally OT but car afficiandos should enjoy this.
Coming back from Calustoga, CA I drove past a Porsche 959. Wow! Sure beats my Ford Fusion.
Citizen AllenM (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 12:17 am
Kinda obvious the next bailout has to be the states, and indirectly the local government level.
Governments will provide the backstop to the economy they are supposed to do under a depression style economic rescue plan.
Pickman's Model by H. P. Lovecraft
One disgusting canvas seemed to depict a vast cross-section of Beacon Hill, with ant-like armies of the mephitic monsters squeezing themselves through burrows that honeycombed the ground. Dances in the modern cemeteries were freely pictured, and another conception somehow shocked me more than all the rest- a scene in an unknown vault, where scores of the beasts crowded about one who had a well-known Boston guidebook and was evidently reading aloud. All were pointing to a certain passage, and every face seemed so distorted with epileptic and reverberant laughter that I almost thought I heard the fiendish echoes. The title of the picture was, 'Holmes, Lowell and Longfellow Lie Buried in Mount Auburn.'
Hyperinflation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
China
As the first user of fiat currency, China has had an early history of troubles caused by hyperinflation. The Yuan Dynasty printed huge amounts of fiat paper money to fund their wars, and the resulting hyperinflation, coupled with other factors, led to its demise at the hands of a revolution.
YLSP,
Actually, what you want to know is what are the debt service expenses on municipal debt outstanding, but it does not really matter because that is a small part of the picture of public finance. Most of the stimulus money that has been used to plug budget gaps has been applied toward offsetting health care and education expenses.
I think the administration way overestimated how quickly this crisis was going to affect state governments, the magnitude, and how quickly they were going to blow through the assistance provided.
"I don't think they are getting it.. "
Lucy, I manufacture culture for a living. Of course I get it. Leave the sociocultural analysis to the pros and stick to the escort pages and periodic table.
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 9:31 pm
Lucy, I manufacture culture for a living.
"Lucy, I manufacture an appearance of culture for a living." There, fixed that for you.
When does DeLong and the other high-priced faculty go on mandatory leave of absence? Must be soon, he's getting shriller every day. I don't think he's kidding about "runn ing the government".- really delusional.
It was obvious to me last week (or maybe two weeks ago). Take a look at Recovery.Gov Most of the money for HHS and unemployment is gone. I can't figure out if that is just money sent to the states; but they already blew through their stimulus money...
no, rob, i'm deep in the guts of the real thing, like it or not. don't get me started on this one - unless you're ready for a tribute to Don Simpson, Greatest Boomer of All Time.
That man was truly the Wagner of the late 20th century.
Correction.. You are PAID for appearing to manufacture culture.
That does NOT mean you are competent or any good at it!
// I manufacture culture for a living.//
hack,
This thread has been everywhere else, tell us the Don Simpson treatment.
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 9:36 pm
no, rob, i'm deep in the guts of the real thing, like it or not.
Ahhh, but that's exactly the same answer you'd give if you were merely manufacturing the appearance of culture now isn't it? This just means you are good at your job and take it seriously.
(grabs popcorn) I love a good movie on Sunday night.
Buffett invested 5B to buy 10% of GS when market cap of ~53B; GS mkt cap now ~71B ; quick ~2B book profit with tax payers money;
Mr Buffett should cough it up and give it back; ill gotten money!
They should just sue themselves...
Bank of America Said to Balk at Paying Fee to U.S. for Backstop
Bank of America Said to Balk at Paying Backstop Fee (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
By David Mildenberg and Rebecca Christie
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. is trying to avoid paying billions of dollars in fees to U.S. taxpayers for guarantees against losses at Merrill Lynch & Co., saying the rescue agreement was never signed and the funding never used. Regulators contend Bank of America owes at least part of a $4 billion fee it agreed to pay in January -- even without a completed legal document -- because the company benefited from implied U.S. backing on about $118 billion of Merrill Lynch assets, such as mortgage-backed bonds, people familiar with the matter said. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank says it owes the Treasury nothing, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are confidential.
can someone help me with this by starting a party aimed at the
middle?
Dick Armey once said [regarding middle of the road] "The only thing you find in the middle of the road are yellow stripes and dead armadillos."
So this new middle party's mascot should be dead armadillo? might work
Okay; but here's the real kicker.
Someone explain to me why it is right for us younger folks (I'm 28) to bail out the older folks? That does not make any amount of sense ever . Since when have kids been asked to pay to take care of their parents when the parents screwed up? The parents should be the ones feeling so much shame that they have to ask their kids for help; oh but its the parents racking up bills that the kids are even wondering "how am I going to pay this!?". Look; I can understand services that bail out and help children; but the flow of money should not go backward...
That means that they'll be able to invest in a newly credible and resurgent America with their prime earning years 2040-2055.
LMFAO...
Same sun same earth no difference.
What a tool you are hack.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress June 25 the accord wasn’t “consummated.”
Lovers' quarrel.
most inconvenient--
an opinion
ylsp-I'm 29 and we're not sposed to pay attention to who is bailing who.
shhhh!
Taxpayers got scewed, I would call that consummated.
Yeah, I think there is a different word for that...
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 12:28 am
Byzantine_Ruins,
I don't think they are getting it..
Eshu is a god of Chaos and Trickery, and plays frequently tempting choices for the purpose of causing maturation. He is a difficult teacher, but a good one[2]. As an example[3], Eshu was walking down the road one day, wearing a hat that was red on one side and black on the other. Sometime after he departed, the villagers who had seen him began arguing about whether the stranger's hat was black or red. The villagers on one side of the road had only been capable of seeing the black side, and the villagers on the other side had only been capable of seeing the red half. They nearly fought over the argument, until Eshu came back and cleared the mystery, teaching the villagers about how one's perspective can alter a person's perception of reality, and that one can be easily fooled. In other versions of this tale, the two tribes were not stopped short of violence; they actually annihilated each other, and Eshu laughed at the result, saying "Bringing strife is my greatest joy".
The US always had the "move out of parent's house, pull yourself by your bootstraps culture" - essentially an adversarial attitude.
It would be ironic to see baby boomer's get shafted by the consequences of their own advice.
//Someone explain to me why it is right for us younger folks (I'm 28) to bail out the older folks? //
YLSP (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 9:47 pm
Someone explain to me why it is right for us younger folks (I'm 28) to bail out the older folks?
That's so cute.
"Those whom heaven helps we call the sons of heaven. They do not learn this by learning. They do not work it by working. They do not reason it by using reason. To let understanding stop at what cannot be understood is a high attainment. Those who cannot do it will be destroyed on the lathe of heaven." - Chuang Tse
My vote paid attention and I somehow ended up for voting for one of the crazy guys instead of one of the established guys... we learn about this system of rationale government, checks and balances, etc. etc... yet such a palpable fear in the system if someone from a wing of either party gets elected... ie. Kucinich and Paul... I say let the "crazy" guys have a shot... don't think that has happened for like what Teddy Roosevelt maybe?
Geithner knows nothing. I just don't get how one figures on a 2nd half recovery. He'll end up eating those predictions. If he makes it that long.
YLSP
For the same reason I take care of my mom who is 77. For the same reason your parents raised you with the best they could offer.
When you are old enough you will figure it out.
YLSP (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 9:47 pm
Someone explain to me why it is right for us younger folks (I'm 28) to bail out the older folks?
The answer is a lot of parents who were glad to get their kids "off the payroll" at 18 and taught them the "lesson" of self-reliance and independence get to die alone eating catfood, lol.
Byzantine_Ruins,
Greedy people reap what they sow!
//The answer is a lot of parents who were glad to get their kids "off the payroll" at 18 and taught them the "lesson" of self-reliance and independence get to die alone eating catfood, lol.//
When you are old enough you will figure it out.
Maybe. As my father used to say [he is now dead]... "Some grow old and wise while others just grow old." Its a coin flip as to which class s/he will end up in.
josap (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/13/2009 - 12:54 am
For the same reason I take care of my mom who is 77. For the same reason your parents raised you with the best they could offer.
No, not really. Many were stupid and selfish and will die the lonely deaths their lonely, selfish lives led them to.
50
The young fir that falls and rots
Having neither needles nor bark,
So is the fate of the friendless man:
Why should he live long?
The "Little House on the Prairie" meme of American existence will kill many people, and they'll deserve it. Proper relationships between parent and child run both ways.
But that is so unamerican.. we are different.
//The "Little House on the Prairie" meme of American existence will kill many people, and they'll deserve it. Proper relationships between parent and child run both ways.//
-
Oh please ... this is hardly central planning ...
It is putting money into the economy which is a financial disaster ...
If it weren't central planning... then the money could stay right where it is now. The individuals that earned it could decide for themselves where and whether to spend it. These clowns spending our money were the most popular kids in High School (and eventually Harvard). That's all they have ever had going for them. I'm only bitter 'cause I've never been in that clique.
A significantly greater percentage of the American population is in some form of correctional control even though crime rates have declined by about 25 percent from 1988-2008.
Rather:
Because a significantly greater percentage of the American population is in some form of correctional control (snip) crime rates have declined by about 25 percent from 1988-2008.
print money like crazy and hand it out NOW. I mean, lot's of money.
Actually, that's what it appears is happening... if you work for GS or AIG, ect.
I'm with Lucifer on this one (no pun intended)
so after years and years of calling us "generation nothing" the baby boomers want us to fund their retirement and healthcare. fuck them. you reap what you sow.
I realize this conversation has moved past this post, but what does it mean for states to be maintaining effort?
That was actually Jim Hightower from 1998.
"There's Nothing in the Middle of the Road but Yellow Stripes and Dead Armadillos: A Work of Political Subversion "
Amazon.com: There's Nothing in the Middle of the Road but Yellow Stripes and Dead Armadillos: A Work of Political Subversion (9780060929497): Jim Hightower: Books