"The one union job that most of us come into contact once a week or so, is the checker @ your supermarket"
----Bullshit. I have never seen a unionized checker.
" According to U.C. Berkeley, 19.8% of the supermarket workforce, about 500,000 workers, was represented by unions in 2007, down from 21% in 2002, but up slightly from the 19.6% represented in 2005."
Consumption (personal expenditures of households such as food, rent, medical expenses and so on but does not include new housing)
From a few weeks ago: "The market liked the economic data it saw because the report suggested more economic weakness. Indeed, government data on personal income and spending showed little sign of a thaw in the spending freeze that continues to constrain both U.S. growth and inflation.
Personal expenditures were up just 0.3% on the month in May, having stayed flat the month before.
The May report on personal finances from the Commerce Department, published at 8:30 a.m. ET, tallied $768.8 billion in total U.S. savings, up from $608.5 billion in April, and the most since records began in January 1959."
Fourth quarter of 2010 for significant employment growth. Real GDP may (if the animal spirits smile on us).
Pigged post:
Well, part of the new new is going to be a resurgence in making those now bastions of undoc workers back into jobs for the unemployed and dropped off the back end.
Sucks to be undoc, but Americans are going to put the screws to the owners of those businesses muy pronto.
If I owned a franchise type business, I would be staffing it with autistic and working class kids in preparation. The local theater chain here does this, and it keeps the costs down. Going in there feels like I am back to my first job in 1982. One has to remember that smart business owners ruthlessly cut costs with the undocs, but when you get bills in the multiple thousands for violating employment laws, they go right back to the shadows, and then home when the supply gets too great.
Get ahead of the curve, next up will be the H1B scams. That means you, tech folks.
Broward needs a real job so he can pay for his parents social security;-}
Feel the changes, as our politicians scramble to get in front of the masses.
Politicians don't really lead, they just see where the parade is going, and act like they knew it all along;-}
The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey for July showed that 65.4 percent of the economists polled say the National Bureau of Economic Research will declare the deepest recession since at least World War II over in the third quarter of 2009.
The projected rebound in consumer spending is expected to be capped by efforts on the part of households to rebuild savings after sharp declines in home values and equity prices over the past few years, the survey said.
And the likelihood that federal, state and local governments will raise taxes to meet budget shortfalls, could hamper consumer spending and business investment further, it said.
On a yearly basis, GDP is expected to contract 2.6 percent in 2009, a slight improvement from the 2.7 percent contraction forecast last month and a 2.8 percent contraction projected in May's survey.
For 2010, the economists expect GDP to grow 2.0 percent, unchanged from the June forecast, but up from the 1.9 percent growth forecast in the May survey.
The survey, which was taken after the Labor Department said the jobless rate in June rose to 9.5 percent, the highest in nearly 26 years, showed the jobless rate peaking at 10.3 percent in the first quarter of 2010.
In June, the 53 leading private economists predicted the rate would reach 10.1 percent in the same quarter.
even the toughest of forecasts leave me wonderin why many respected economists and business people like this person below are sounding warnings of dire outcomes
it been a hard slog to get those close friends and relatives to believe that our economic system and our social order, is floating down the niagra river and headed for the falls
the short clip linked below could be useful in our effort to convince non believers
as you watch this brief segment of a charlie rose interview... please keep in mind pete peterson is not some quack with his hair on fire...he served in presidential cabinets, chaired the CFR, co-founded blackstone group and has a net worth of several billion dollars
Living in the sun belt, I've never knowingly met a single union employee in my entire life. I have met a lot of former auto workers who've retired and moved here, though.
Flat Broke in the Free Market: How Globalization Fleeced Working People
By Jon Jeter
Hardcover, $25.95, 256 pages
W.W. Norton: New York
May 2009
At the dawn of the twenty-first century, the United States is giving birth to the first generation of Americans whose life expectancy will be shorter, not longer, than their parents'. Our system of global finance has put us on the precipice, teetering on ruin. As of mid-2008, the United States has bequeathed to the world the biggest speculative bubble, the worst housing crisis, and the gravest economic meltdown in nearly eighty years, and the response from America's political class has been the largest single transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in at least a century.
Globalization is an international shakedown, and its targets are ordinary people across the globe, men and women made sojourners in the country of their birth by global finance and its missionaries.
It bears repeating that you never apologized for offending many posters (not including me, who took no issue with your former name). I was wrong to stick up for you, and I apologize to those who rightly criticised you as offensive.
From WSJ GDP forecast survey
Q3-2009: Avg=+0.9%, Min = -2.5%, Max=+3.8% ; Morgan Stanley = +1.0%; JPMorgan = +2.5%; UCLA/Learner = 0.0%
Q4-2009: Avg=+2.0%, Min = -2.0%, Max = +4.4%; Morgan Stanley = +2.0%; JPMorgan = +2.0%; UCLA/Learner = +0.6%
Funny how some people see anti-semitism everywhere, but when the biggest anti-semite to come down the pike rips off his own people, the same people were as quiet as church mice.
barfly, wage arbitrage ends with the dollar as reserve currency.
When that happens, the US worker will be quite competitive with the rest of the world. The US consumer, not.
How is that for a succinct precis?
I meant to say that we might see some slight real GDP by the 4th quarter of 2009- but I would not count on it.
I just hope for stabilization of the economy- an end to the downward spiral for now.
Interest payments on the debt alone cost $452 billion last year — the largest federal spending category after Medicare-Medicaid, Social Security and defense. It's quickly crowding out all other government spending. And the Treasury is finding it harder to find new lenders.
You can't spend what you don't have!
Federal tax revenues are collected throughout the year but are highest in the month of April, when most tax returns are filed. A year ago, the Treasury’s April revenue totaled $404 billion. This April, it fell to just $266 billion. That’s the largest April-to-April decrease since at least 1981 (the earliest year for which we could find monthly data).
OFF THE CHARTS; In the Unemployment Line, and Stuck There - NY Times
The long-term unemployment rate -- the proportion of the labor force that has been out of work for at least 15 weeks -- climbed to 5.1 percent. Until this year, the post-Depression high for that rate had been 4.2 percent.
June was also the first month since the government began collecting the data in 1948 that more than half of the unemployed people had been out of work for at least 15 weeks.
The proportion of workers without jobs for at least 27 weeks rose to 2.8 percent, which is also the highest since World War II.
The figures reflect an economy where the pace of layoffs and firings has slowed this year, so that fewer people are being added to the unemployment rolls. But the pace of new hiring is now even lower than it was when layoffs were peaking.
Hmm things look pretty bad....I hope it gets back to how the 70s were. Ah that was good times...Shoot.....Chinese creditors and Retirees wanting their money. I better hide behind this couch that I paid on credit while I think. Should I start a business? Man....lots of regulations, taxes, and stuff I have to worry about. Not to mention there's no manufacturing here...I would have to outsource from China/Vietnam. Then I would staff it with illegal immigrants who don't pay taxes, so I can save money. How would that help US? ..man those retirees are really loud....ok let's see....I guess I'll just make my son work. Except he just plays video game all day, and asks me for money for starbucks and shoes....lazy ass.....takes after his parents. Don't get me started on my daughter....keeps spending money on Hannah Montana/slutty clothes. Ah screw it. I will just run up more money on my credit card; I'll figure out tomorrow.
Jeebus, I made my prediction of the recession end (march April 2010)In Q4 2008; how bloody hard can it be? 1 month from first tremors to the point they put together a rescue package, then that many months for it to nominally turn around.
Pulled the theory out of my kiester, but its still operational for another 10 months.
Obama urges Americans to have patience for his stimulus plan ( which will kickstart GDP growth ) so relax.... REAL hope and change is just right around the corner....you betcha
Doc, where is the rising interest rates from the bond vigilantes?
Oh wait, they are swamped with all of the money being parked on the sidelines, now that most commercial paper is ineligible for inclusion in money market funds.
Gee, panic does wonders for the bond market in terms of absolute return, but next year there will be no profits to be had in being long bonds, a state I expect to continue for a decade or a little longer.
Pimco's Gross is terrified that the 70's are back, and he manages a couple trillion of what will be wasting assets.
There is no crowding out when there is miniscule effective demand for new corporate or municipal bond issuance- where does the money go?
These aggregate forecasts are probably less useful than they have ever been in my adult lifetime. There are massive changes going on in the economy. Regardless of whether next quarter is a +1 or a -1, many businesses and jobs will continue to go straight down the toilet, while there will be significant opportunities for the nimble and the liquid.
I forgot about deficit spending, but what about Verdoorn's Law which suggests that America will be selling a shitload of Ford and Chevy trucks in Japan next year .....LOL!
Doc Holiday, First - just to be clear - growth is from the bottom, not from the peak.
Although I don't expect much good news later this year, I do think auto sales will increase slightly. I think there is a good chance housing starts have bottomed. I think the inventory correction might be over soon. That removes several key drags from the economy.
Non-residential investment in structures will continue to decline, but that is a lagging component of GDP.
Take away some of the negatives - sprinkle in a little more "G" - and you get some minor growth. That isn't much different than Roubini's view - he is looking at flat in Q4 and a little growth next year. There are still many problems with the economy, and I don't see an engine for growth for some time.
I don't think the actual mechanics of where GDP count for much. Slightly positive, slightly negative, now, later, it hardly matters. The formula is for a period of positive GDP growth combined with mild deflation, certainly as far as it really matters the actual GDP numbers won't help us much.
CR-in regards to your slightly comment, what are you thinking this is on the auto sales front?
I disagree...don't believe the pundits..credit application penetration for auto is down again this month so far...and its really down in SE......
I'm on the front line of trying to get stimulus funding from the DOE for the energy industry, and I can tell you that the promise of funds has actually HURT the 2nd quarter (and likely the 3rd) as everybody stops all other spending while they wait for the handout, which isn't likely to be distributed until Q4 or even Q1 next year.
We were doing fine Q1, but all the opportunities dried up in Q2 with everybody focused on conserving their own cash.
Volker, the tuesday and thursday thing is not good....in fact thats when you find yourself up agains a celtic druid with a mean streak....we don't like that word....
Vanguard closed the Treasury Money Market Fund because the situation had changed and no longer fit the parameters required for the fund. i.e.--too risky. Don't ever think Mr. Vogel has lost a step.
Okun's Law is based on regression analysis of US data that shows a correlation between unemployment and GDP. Okun's law can be stated as: For every 2% increase in potential GDP, the actual employment rate exceeds the natural rate of employment by 1% of the potential GDP.
....the recent unemployment rate of 9.4 percent suggests that the economy is operating at a GDP gap of 8.8 percent. Given that GDP is currently $14,089.7 Billion, we appear to have a GDP gap/recession of $1,462 Billion.
I see your point, but at some point the fed will start to buy their bonds to mop up liquidity( before then yields will slightly rise), at that point muni yields will flatten, then spike. The question is where muni yields blow out on the curve.
I think; this stuff makes my head hurt and I'm sorta good at it.
Assuming that $300 Billion of the Stimulus Bill takes effect this year, followed by an additional $400 Billion in 2010, the initial stimulus to the economy would be $450 Billion followed by an additional $600 Billion, for a total stimulus of $1,050 Billion by the end of 2010—just about enough to offset the current recession if additional government or other spending occurs--as is frequently the case. With a multiplier of 2 the outlook would be somewhat more favorable, but then again it appears that the GDP gap will continue to increase, given that unemployment is still rising.
Citizen AllenM - thank you for the civil replies. Suffice it to say, I don't think "this war" ( vague in itself) will ever end. I like all the other points you make, though.
1979: US per capita energy use peaked; still floundering on a plateau in 2006, but ready to fall precipitously (‘cliff’) at any time
2005: World crude oil probably peaked; still on an undulating plateau in 2007; starts off the ‘cliff’ ~2010-2012 or before
2005: World food production (grains) peaked
2008 (or sooner): World Natural Gas peaks
2010 (or sooner): Natural Gas ‘cliff’ arrives
2012 (or sooner): US electricity blackouts and brownouts become the norm
2012: US potable, available water peak and ‘cliff’; shortages and waterborne diseases increase
2015: US Health Care System in complete chaos, breakdown and failure; sanitation, drugs, return of communicable diseases, poorer nutrition etc.
2015: World “Dieoff” begins in earnest; largely starvation, disease and poor healthcare caused
It is suggested that government spending is more effective than tax breaks. Perhaps our friends at Treasury could cut taxes instead of a second stimulus?
For you, Juvie.
WeChooseTheMoon.org — goes live at 8:02 a.m. Thursday, 90 minutes before the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 launch from Cape Canaveral, Fla. It will track the capsule’s route from the Earth to the Moon, ending with the moon landing and Armstrong’s walk — in real time, but 40 years later
Muni bonds are going to spike because of repayment issues.
The Fed is not going to pay more than lip service to mopping up liquidity until we have a real amount of inflation coursing through the economy. The Fed has to wait, or get killed by the 1937 paradox.
This is going to take a lot longer than smart folks think, the economy is very slow to adjust to new reality, as are a lot of folks in the real world still relatively unaware of the changes coming.
"It is suggested that government spending is more effective than tax breaks. Perhaps our friends at Treasury could cut taxes instead of a second stimulus?"
quoting x sec of labor and econ prof robert reich as to why the V shaped and U shaped recovery hypothesis are nonsense
"Personally, I don't buy into either camp. In a recession this deep, recovery doesn't depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped.
Problem is, consumers won't start spending until they have money in their pockets and feel reasonably secure. But they don't have the money, and it's hard to see where it will come from. They can't borrow. Their homes are worth a fraction of what they were before, so say goodbye to home equity loans and refinancings. One out of ten home owners is under water -- owing more on their homes than their homes are worth. Unemployment continues to rise, and number of hours at work continues to drop. Those who can are saving. Those who can't are hunkering down, as they must. snip
My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained.
The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin...."
Pavel, taxes will go up- the winners of the economic changes must pay the losers through their taxes and changes in the social spending mixture.
Tax cuts- or even the puny checks mailed out were very low return of stimulation for a lot of money. Windfall money is spent by some, but saved by others. As I have tried to point out, savings will essentially be punished through low returns for at least a decade- maybe two.
How is that for grim?
Wall street is not geared for the low return game, witness the closing of the Vanguard Tbond fund referenced above.
Most of America is similarly not geared for a low return environment.
Now, get used to it, and wait for the inflation to finally hit.
Meanwhile, stuck in boredom, back to cleaning.
Someday this war's gonna end...
(Col. Kilgore's closing line in Apocalypse Now- chosen for the anomie, and question implied that there would be something after the war that would be a let down to the speaker.)
"How would it pay for expenditures after tax cuts?
don't confuse the issue, Pavel."
Sorry.
I keep hearing that hypothesis and I want to know if it's been thought out and calculated. The US economy is a vast and mysterious machine, not a lawn mower designed by industrial engineers. Lives are at stake.
" Pavel, taxes will go up- the winners of the economic changes must pay the losers through their taxes and changes in the social spending mixture.
Tax cuts- or even the puny checks mailed out were very low return of stimulation for a lot of money. Windfall money is spent by some, but saved by others. As I have tried to point out, savings will essentially be punished through low returns for at least a decade- maybe two."
Citizen AllenM, practical problem for us. We calculated our return against inflation, and it seems we're settling now for a rate that just keeps pace with inflation or very slightly exceeds. We're placed in a very conservative entity which is about as safe as you can find, though of course there are no guarantees in the event of unforeseen meltdown. Guarantees of perfect safety are, in any case, only fictional. Fortunately, we don't depend on interest for expenses.
A friend of mine, whose aged father in law was dying wanted to have a candle lit
for his spirit to fix on (or something) at his passing, and mentioned that the
candles for this purpose were blessed on candlemas day. Of course I had
heard of candlemass day, but didn't know that.
Got me to thinking. She raised her kids in the church, even tho she stopped
being a believer decades ago. Before me, even. Maybe I'm wrong. The Catholic
Church keeps maintaining it is about capital T truth, and I accepted them at their
word. But suppose it is for nearly all people, nearly all the time, about the comfort of ritual, really? Ritual the most interesting of which has been abandoned, because the people in charge took themselves at their own word, about the capital T truth thing.
Altho I had to go to mass every day as a kid, and found it immensely boring.
I find the non-latin mass even more boring. But I'm sure that some people thought
it comforting.
My mother was complaining that the church (shaped like a pyramid!!) doesn't
have enough statues. The few bigger churches I've been to look like
indoor stadia, or gas stations with carpeting.
"We anticipate another “jobless recovery,” which implies a relatively feeble one. We would not be surprised to hear terms early in 2010 such as “double dip.” - Kasreil
"I think Kasriel might be a little too optimistic about 2010. I think the real GDP growth will turn slightly positive sometime in the 2nd half of this year, but my guess is 2010 will be barely positive, with the unemployment rate rising for most of 2010." - CR
If this were like past recessions sure but everything about this event is not like past recessions. It wasn't led by unemployment most notably. We have an unusual bubble recession that has only lately been overlaid with a more typical unemployment profile. Second, this event is now clearly going to be much longer lasting than postwar recessions. Even those who thought this would be a recession were not prepared for this length of downturn. Third the monetary crisis. Responses will be very constrained.
OT: Juvenal Delinquent : July is named after Julius Caesar. et tu Brutus?
One thing that has always fascinated me about churches, is they have the most architectural freedom of any buildings in virtually every society, but there is almost no freedom of thought within them...
"the winners of the economic changes must pay the losers"
that's a laugher. the real winners - the truly rich like Hanky Panky Paulson and a few thousand of his closest GS buddies - are able to easily live off muni bond income for the rest of their lives, with maybe enough for their great-grandkids to enjoy a similar life. i'm sure that's the final act for many of their rape and pillage of the other 99% - wait for CA and NY to start issuing 10% coupon muni bonds when they're on the edge in a year or so and then call it a day.
"The Catholic
Church keeps maintaining it is about capital T truth"
Sort of, but not in the people.
As for ritual: In a dinner table exchange with Mary MacCarthy, Flannery O'Connor responded to the assertion that the sacraments were, of course, only (comforting) symbols. She said that if the Blessed Sacrament were only symbolic, then the hell with it.
Only people wasting their time would partake for the comfort of a ritual.
"Altho I had to go to mass every day as a kid, and found it immensely boring."
If you didn't understand and feel it as the inpouring of glory, it's not surprising that you were bored.
All these eensie weensie numbers--aren't they all within the margin of
error?
I see a particularly bad segment of the world, but there are worse
ones. Things are not getting better in South Florida.
Frankly, dealing with my mom's move and moving my office and
caused me to reflect how much stuff we have, and how much less
we could do with. Also, stuff really lasts a long time now, much longer
than when I was a kid.
I really should go and make some blueberry muffins. Lots of cheap
blueberries and we bought our share.
I want someone to tell me just where an economy-sized recovery
is gonna come from.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 12:35 p
Mock,
somebody just told me the Graf Zeppelin just went down; what have you heard?
if you can't bother to look at the topics over the last two days before you post, why bother posting stuff like that all?
i hang out here pretty often, but at times the family business does call
if i re hashed an old idea or link im sorry
seems to me the idea that the (this model) economy is not going to recover, as in resume back on track to where it went off the tracks...is a potent idea
we are headed for an entirely new paradigm, or economic self immolation
Well said.....it's sad that the greatest moment of our generation is a moment that inspired a million thoughts that could've lead to our greatest moments.
In our view, if the output gap reaches 10 per cent, which now seems likely, the US economy will be in depression territory.
Sadly, if you look macroscopically at the US economy, you see that about 17% of spending is funded by Ponzi borrowing. Obama's trillions are simply an attempted replacement of collapsing private (and shadow banking) borrowing with public borrowing. Should the lender financing be cut off, down goes "GDP" by that amount. Heaven help us.
July 20, 1969 may not be remembered at all because it was such a false start. It is likely to be a footnote to a sentence like "Real space travel began in 2042, when Eastasian astronaut Wen Lee landed the first cargo ship on the moon and workers began building the first moon colony."
Whether anyone will bother to translate history books from the dominant languages into English is another issue.
"you see that about 17% of spending is funded by Ponzi borrowing"
that's extremely conservative. at least an additional 17% of "product" was related to this in the peak bubble years 03-07, realtor income, construction jobs, spending at home despot, etc...
17% of "product" was related to this in the peak bubble years 03-07, realtor income, construction jobs, spending at home despot, etc...
My method focuses exclusively on the source of funds, not what they are spent on. It is relatively objective, and easy to analyze. If one of the four hoses squirting in your sink is turned off, you get 25% less water.
I fear it is a 13.9 Trillion chit hump through the Valley of Debt back to the Landing Zone...
and even then we'll have to wait on the Recovery Gunship which is currently based on the USS Credit Bubble somewhere in the Globalization Sea.
Dont think that money is being spent Plantagenet; simply captive electrons
on balance sheets; you'd be right if it was being spent.
You guys do know that the Mars rovers are still roving on Mars. About 100 times their
designed longevity. They've gotten miles away from where they started.
There's a short video of pictures of a dust devil doing by on Mars. I
found this thrilling, but others I showed it too--not.
In history, we always remember the 1st person/persons to have done something, and #2 doesn't mean squat.
We honor Sir Edmund Hillary.
We honor charles lindberg too. But no one remembers the names of the first to cross the atlantic by air.
(It was three naval aviators. I don't know their names either)
Don't think that money is being spent Plantagenet.
That's a percentage of GDP. You can argue with GDP in many ways, but it's a reasonable surrogate for peoples' aggregate income (whether earned, "welfared," or scammed). Take away a percentage of GDP, and some people will be bereft of income they once had.
"If one of the four hoses squirting in your sink is turned off, you get 25% less water. "
expecting anything resembling exactitude in a system built on imaginary deposits of imaginary money where "services" provide over 2/3 of the "product" is a bit silly.
my speculative opinions are more based on the fact that govt and construction were the only source of signficant job growth in those years. of course, i have a new-yorker-cartoon kind of myopia, i don't live that far from the 15 corridor, where far, far more than 1/3 of the "GDP" has been vaporized.
The rovers were custom designed, and every part of them was rigorously tested in a wide range of extreme conditions. They even had special wind tunnels with Martian air density to test the drag parachutes for landing (first round failed, next design OK).
American cars could be that good, if left to the engineers, and sold for $100M each.
(but wait, Wiki sez someone named Albert Reed & his crew were first...)
.
First isn't all it's cracked up to be - a publicity machine helps.
I doubt many readers or 'mericans, or other citizens of the world, know who Alcock & Brown were. I don't w/o google/wiki
I want to see some TV reports on Monday where contractors are striking in front of banks, complaining they can't get their IOUs cashed. Perhaps mocking Arnold in his accent.
Texans pulled back on buying and spending in June, as the state reported an 11.2 percent drop in sales tax revenues for the month, by far the largest decline this year.
The state comptroller's office announced Friday that it collected $1.57 billion in June, compared with $1.77 billion the same month last year.
The point is that we can do really good stuff if we want to.
And see, even though the space program is our Gothic cathedral,
Plantagenet waxes wroth over it.
I walked though the vehicle assembly building recently. It
has the feel of a Gothic Cathedral, with no stained glass
windows, and very very dusty. We were very close to the Aerial (sp?)
rocket (maybe a mockup, not sure, but it is planned to fly, anyway).
Maybe the truth is the media isn't interested any more. Michael
Jackson is more entertaining.
"American cars could be that good, if left to the engineers, and sold for $100M each."
That is the indirect point. The rigged BK does not correct the real problem but supports the political power houses that will kick the can down the road. Americans can be the auto leader at a fair cost if the hand cuffs are taken off. Loosening them will not do it. Very sad.
it will be interesting to see how higher taxes, busted credit scores due to foreclosures, etc, all combine to create a renaissance of the off-the-books cash economy.
it will be interesting to see how higher taxes, busted credit scores due to foreclosures, etc, all combine to create a renaissance of the off-the-books cash economy.
Higher credit card usage fees will contribute to this as well. A lot of the local retailers are trying to fight the increases already. If they offer discounts for cash transactions it's make it that much more tempting.
It's hard to strike in california....it's sunny and the beach is a few blocks away. People don't have that kind of patience. Florida's the same I'm sure.
I found CR's thoughts interesting : "I think the real GDP growth will turn slightly positive sometime in the 2nd half of this year, but my guess is 2010 will be barely positive, with the unemployment rate rising for most of 2010."
It seems to be less positive, on balance, from the consensus view; but at the same time seems to generally support the consensus view that the "worst is (largely) over" economically, with a "jobless recovery" to follow.
I've found the recent economic forecasting consensus to be notable for a number of reasons. First, I don't believe "the worst is over", unfortunately. Second, as I've pointed out in this blog post: Another "The Worst May Soon Be Over" Forecast | EconomicGreenfield
I find the relatively tight clustering of the consensus forecasts to be significant, from a statistical standpoint, as well as for other reasons.
At any rate I would be very interested in reading further thoughts from CR on what he foresees happening in through 2010...
Where is The Stimulus cash going to? I pasted a post above @ 12:08 whic was:
Assuming that $300 Billion of the Stimulus Bill takes effect this year, followed by an additional $400 Billion in 2010, the initial stimulus to the economy would be $450 Billion followed by an additional $600 Billion, for a total stimulus of $1,050 Billion by the end of 2010—just about enough to offset the current recession if additional government or other spending occurs--as is frequently the case. With a multiplier of 2 the outlook would be somewhat more favorable, but then again it appears that the GDP gap will continue to increase, given that unemployment is still rising.
That fits with this pasted story today:
"The stimulus package is working exactly as we had anticipated," Obama told CNN in an interview from Ghana that aired on Sunday. Forbes.com File Not Found
"A lot of it has been spent on ridiculous projects," said Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who was his party's presidential nominee last year.
So, where has the money been spent and where will it be spent? Anyone know/????? Ill return later, but makes me wonder how GDP will grow if there is a lack of accontability as to where the GDP increase will come from....
Tenzing Norgay and Edmond Hillary had an agreement to never identify who placed the first foot on the summit; they stuck to this agreement to their deaths.
exactly, for small retailers or handymen-type service providers, it is beyond tempting.
it may be the only silver lining in the massacre of bricks-and-mortar retailers in their battle against amazon et alia - if someone's credit is so shot they can't use plastic anyways...
GDP peaked in Q3-2008 at $14,413 Bil. In Q1-2009 GDP was $14,094 Bil, which is a 2.2% decline. PCE dropped roughly by as much. In terms of the size of the economy, we are back to the end of 2007.
Lawyerliz - you are spot on!
PS. For proper normalization - the US population growth is about 0.9% per year
If they also pay black market employees in cash they need the cash stream.
Very true.
I wonder if the government is going to start data-mining financial data on a massive scale. The government could look at vehicle registration records, credit card purchases, mortgage data, etc. and compare that against what you claim you earned in income on your taxes.
I think a lot of people could be nabbed at first, when prior purchases were made on the record. More and more would just end up off the books though.
"(Col. Kilgore's closing line in Apocalypse Now- chosen for the anomie, and question implied that there would be something after the war that would be a let down to the speaker.)"
I always assumed Col. Kilgore's post-war activities involved a longboard and surf more exciting than beach break.
I forget what bone head politicians was on a talking head show the other night but he couldn't understand why the orders weren't flowing in for heavy construction equipment. Funny thing is there is a glut of all kinds of heavy equipment from the building bust. Who is going to order new?
he US Federal Budget for 2010 was released today, February 26,2009. Overall, roughly half of spending goes to the US Department of Defense with the remaining money divided among 22 other departments.
If the banks have "off the books" assets, trash etc - why can't I.
Because I will go to jail. Banks go to the Fed window for more money.
Too bad my income comes from clients funds that are placed into and paid out of a trust account. No way is anything off the books for me. Or do I need to hire a banker to teach me the right way to do this???? LOL
"Too bad my income comes from clients funds that are placed into and paid out of a trust account. No way is anything off the books for me. Or do I need to hire a banker to teach me the right way to do this???? LOL "
I'm not sure what Kasriel means by "double-dip", given that he's using it in the same paragraph as "recovery". Aren't those two contradictory ideas?
Also, if we believe there will be another wave of foreclosures (CRE, Alt-A) and an accompanying deleverging, wouldn't that imply that GDP will take another big turn downwards? Deleverging is not very good for PC or I. I'm not an economist, but it seems to me all these forecasts for recovery assume there will be no more deleverging.
"I forget what bone head politicians was on a talking head show the other night but he couldn't understand why the orders weren't flowing in for heavy construction equipment. Funny thing is there is a glut of all kinds of heavy equipment from the building bust. Who is going to order new?"
Take a drive from Bakersfield to Sacramento on Hwy 99, and you'll see billions of dollars of barely used heavy equipment on the side of the road, as many excavators or D9's or anything your heart desires. So many in fact that each and every lot is bursting at the seams, with no more room, chockablock.
I assume all of it will make it's way to China, sooner or later.
you are right that CR used that quote on the 10th...i forgot
my point was to use that quote to interest people in checking out the additional observations Jesse (and btw eve smith) made regarding his reaction to reichs "X" recovery statements
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 2:40 pm
Average pre-tax income - $63k
Average annual spending - $49k
Given the wealth distribution in this country, using the average in an article addressed to a general audience is pretty dirty.
I guess that was chosen because it's a much higher number than the median?
Kilgore == guy who thought that asians could be subjugated like native americans.
The problem is that such an effort requires a massive amount of technological and cultural superiority. Europeans never had that advantage when dealing with asian cultures.
The median wage must generally increase for consumption to resume, and for this to happen the heavy taxes of the financial sector and the oligarchs on the real economy must be lowered significantly in proportion to its size.
Yes, both finance and intellectual property "taxes" need to decrease, and real taxes need to increase. It's all redistribution, in one form or another. Got to fill that debt tax one way or another.
As clueless as Congress is about the financial sector, they're much more hopeless when it comes to intellectual property, whether it be trademark, copyright, or patent.
"When you're lying wounded on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Just roll to your rifle and blow out your brains,
And go to your God like a soldier."
from The Young British Soldier by Rudyard Kipling
But I'm certainly hoping for better for the Marines in Helmund.
churches, is they have the most architectural freedom of any buildings in virtually every society
In one sense, building software and building churches is similar. They are extensively hand-crafted work funded by the dominant paradigm of the time - religion and banks. The craftsmenship in the U.S. churches circa 1700-1900 is just amazing, you can see a peak in time/cost around the Great Depression when the shift to banks began.
.
.
"Kasriel" and "optimistic" shouldn't be in the same sentence.
.
.
My dad believed many years ago that Peak Empire occurred sometime around 1972-73, based on income/cost graphing he was doing.
Continuing with OT comments - as seen on The Oil Drum
The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: July 12, 2009 I've had a series of conversations with the CEO of Emergency Management Solutions in the past couple days and here is what I have learned:
- all her clients activated their pandemic plans when the WHO raised the pandemic level to 6
- at the conference held last Thursday they were told by the CDC that it looks like the best case scenario is infection rates this fall of 50% to 70% in North America with a mortality rate of 0.5%; this is comparable to the Asian Flu (H2N2) in which approx. 2 million died
- seasonal flu has an infection rate of 10% to 15% and a mortality rate of 0.1%
- businesses should plan for significant drops in revenue and up to 50% of their employees staying home due to illness
supply chain disruptions will occur
- "Social disruption may be greatest when rates of absenteeism impair essential services, such as power, transportation, and communications." (WHO)
- models by some of her bank clients show a potential economic drop of 20% and a slow recovery (>5 months)
- businesses that rely on groups of people gathering (restaurants, theatres, etc.) will be hardest hit, especially if a "do not congregate" order is issued
- if your business does not have a pandemic plan, there is not a lot of time to create and enact it but do not delay
The July baseline forecast is for the recession to be mild but long. The stimulus payments came out earlier than expected, and appear to have been spent more quickly than expected, which has helped the economy through mid-2008.
[congress] is much more hopeless when it comes to intellectual property, whether it be trademark, copyright, or patent
It's a legacy of enforcement. The IP laws of the U.S. are tightly bound to physical reality and instantiation because that was an enforceable handle. They never anticipated the ease of duplication and propagation. Our IP laws are not IP laws but private property laws grafted onto IP.
some court this month is going to determine whether cell phone ringtones are "public performances" of a musical work, thereby entitling the songwriter/composer to another tranche of royalties.
From August 2008: according the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. U.S. GDP will slow to 1.5 percent before rebounding to 1.8 percent next year, another survey showed.
"Warm blueberry muffins (fresh from the oven) and a glass of cold milk."
Damn you, HomeG...............I might die for some fresh BB muffins........I can taste them now...........make sure you take plenty of mouth-watering pics........and, BTW, who's this "friend", Elizabeth?
In regard to The Obama Stimulus, which is going to Afghanistan -- there is also a handful of teachers who will stimulate the economy with their $35,000 jobs and The Americore helpers that will be making about half that and the increase in soldiers who will stimulate thing with about what a first grade teacher makes. This $800+ Billion will trickle down into the expresso shops and at some point boost used car sales later in 2010 as GDP reboots The American Dream and then carpenters will flow out of bars across the land ready to build new shopping malls, so that every city can have back-to-back Walmarts and a tsunami of unlimited spending power ... which will help China buy new cars from.... oh wait, .... never mind.
IMF says U.S. GDP should improve to 2% in 2009 after being flat in Q4 2008
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The U.S. economy has fared well considering the severity of headwinds it has faced, and GDP should gradually improve to around 2% in 2009 after being roughly flat in Q4 of 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its concluding statement of the 2008 Article IV Consultation with the United States.
What's 12 Billion between friends?
From the TimeMachine Year 2003.
The US flew nearly $12bn in shrink-wrapped $100 bills into Iraq, then distributed the cash with no proper control over who was receiving it and how it was being spent.
The staggering scale of the biggest transfer of cash in the history of the Federal Reserve has been graphically laid bare by a US congressional committee.
In the year after the invasion of Iraq in 2003 nearly 281 million notes, weighing 363 tonnes, were sent from New York to Baghdad for disbursement to Iraqi ministries and US contractors. Using C-130 planes, the deliveries took place once or twice a month with the biggest of $2,401,600,000 on June 22 2004, six days before the handover.
So...is the strategy for the US government to deny state bailout outright? then have a few banks accept California IOUs, then a few more? But all 'temporarily'?
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 4:05 pm
@ResistanceIsFeudal
The chart was based off of a government report, so lots of fudging around in there I'm sure (Just like our beloved GDP).
LOL. Well, it also serves a useful marketing purpose... Much like convincing people that they need to compete with neighbors' standard of living when they in fact own little and are strung out on debt and living on credit, people look at this figure and envy those "average" families, feel inadequate, etc.
And to think: that was the median forecast. Half were more optimistic! ROFL!
From the previously cited July-2009 WSJ forecst survey:
25% of the surveyed economists forecast that in Q4-2009 GDP will grow faster than 2.5%, and 10% actually believe it will grow at the rate of >=4.0%. The highest forecast for the GDP growth in Q4-2009 is 4.4% by Gene Huang of FedEx Corp.
Experience changes us all, in sometimes unexpected ways. The movie was a raw reaction to recent history, and as such contained a lot of truth, truth that is once again swept under the rug to political expediency. What it taught me at a young age was that war as such is a waste of time to do anything other than commit total annihilation to destroy a people. We live in an era where the west and the east have swept through Afghanistan five or six times since the 18th century, forging a people into fractured and harsh survivors.
The Taliban was in essence, a true look at what they desired after all that idiocy. Pure, uncorruptable, Islamic and homegrown. Too bad they put the worst of the tribal repression into the package, which is after all, what they are.
Tribes are too small to be effective in the era of nationstates, and too big to just run a village. The ability to sacrifice large numbers of your people to attain victory signifies that you can indeed outlast the Americans, who just come to make surface changes. That is why the Iraqis were celebrating as we left the cities- they know we will be gone before long, and one of the last colonial constructs in the middle east will finally die.
Our methods are unsound, in that we can inflict immense damage on a foe, and not understand the foe sufficient to conquer and rule.
Because we are really unsuited to empire as a people. We admire the rebel too much, and do not desire to hang him for "the good of civilization."
That is the conundrum of the "American Empire"- to conquer a place like Putin did Chechnya is considered barbaric, but that is what it takes.
The US flew nearly $12bn in shrink-wrapped $100 bills into Iraq, then distributed the cash with no proper control over who was receiving it and how it was being spent.
It is quite likely that most of this cash will not end up in the US any time soon, so what does it matter? It is even less harmful than banks hoarding cash. It's fiat money, anyway
But if you give cash to California, you will end up giving it to all states.
While inflationary, it does look like a very effective way to channel stimulus funds
//We live in an era where the west and the east have swept through Afghanistan five or six times since the 18th century, forging a people into fractured and harsh survivors.//
...and then carpenters will flow out of bars across the land ready to build new shopping malls, so that every city can have back-to-back Walmarts - patently false.
if the dollar has a collapse in early autumn which was equivalent to the corporate bond and equity collapse at that point last year, the GDP could fly to an annualized 5%+ pace . of course, it will mean absolutely nothing, like the GDP gain '33-'37, which our brilliant leaders seek to emulate.
Geithner ought to be lashed to a post until he answers the questions he is asked. He has obviously attended some Tom Hopkins seminars. "Rephrase the question in such a way that it allows you the response you desire." (Figuratively of course) Nail his tongue to a foot-long 4X4....and see then how much he relishes rephrasing.
I have just read the most stupid article - but quite telling as to the direction of the eco-PETAs...........how much CO2 am I throwing out by learning thru the internet? I imagine next, certain sites will be more green than others............I could be more polite, but both subjects are in my opinion packed full of cow-shit.
MrM,
A big state bailout is unavoidable in all of the bubble states.
What needs to happen is the folks standing in the way of raising taxes and cutting costs on the state level need to do whatever needs to be done.
Washington has no desire to give Republican or Democratic grandstanders a big platform until they have toed the line.
In other words, state legislators should shut up and play ball, or find that Big O can easily let them swing.
California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida are already beginning to slowly get the message.
But hey, it takes a while, especially in places where there is a lot of state's rights garbage, and libertarianism.
"Funny how some people see anti-semitism everywhere, but when the biggest anti-semite to come down the pike rips off his own people, the same people were as quiet as church mice."
Stim checks is why the bottom is forming currently, will be seen as the apex of the W repression.
Will take something amazing for Q4 GDP to be negative YoY
Stimulus checks were one time handout, already received and either spent or saved.
Other tax reductions are spread out and are too small to be meaningful (like $10-120 less payroll tax deductions per week).
I for one am not sure that Q4 will see much growth. More likely the economy will flatline
The whole business of escorting is far closer to an adam smith-type free market than any of the gerrymandered grotesqueries we call financial institutions.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei unfortunately I can't stay long to watch you shove your foot down your throat even more but this is the third stupid, insensitive Anti-Semitic thing you've said. Just pulling out some inane "PC" card doesn't get you off the hook for sheer stupidity.
I suggest you put me on ignore. I will respond to your childishness every time I see it, and I'll be back soon.
The money will be used to hire 48 people -- including 31 fishermen -- and to charter 10 vessels to retrieve an estimated 4,000 derelict crab pots, which pose a hazard to whales, seal lions and fishing boats, Jane Lubchenco said.
"there's gonna be a big ass stimilus check coming soon"
but will it be in the form of a direct check to the masses ala the previous goofball attempts, or will it be a big prorated 500 bil bailout to all 50 states?
still ridiculously cheap relative to the size of the burden and historical averages. i thought HHS was already at the trillion mark? that will be a 2tril+ by 2020, easy. too bad net federal revenue will be roughly the same as 2007 at that point. if we're lucky.
If we send cash to CA, it removes their incentive to fix their own problems, and creates 49 copycats. At this point, I would rather send cash to Goldman Sachs than to CA.
Of course, with bought-and-paid-fors like Geithner and Obama, we'll probably end up paying GS fees to bail California out.
Me me me
"The one union job that most of us come into contact once a week or so, is the checker @ your supermarket"
----Bullshit. I have never seen a unionized checker.
" According to U.C. Berkeley, 19.8% of the supermarket workforce, about 500,000 workers, was represented by unions in 2007, down from 21% in 2002, but up slightly from the 19.6% represented in 2005."
Grocery Headquarters
So if 20% are unionized, "most of us" would not come into contact once a week.
No apology needed.
Re: "I think the real GDP growth will turn slightly positive sometime in the 2nd half of this year"
How? Unemployment will increase, savings will increase (MZM) productivity will decline, housing will be dead, how?
Ahahahahaha. (drops to the ground) Bwahahaha.....(tears rolling down cheeks) whew.....haha...whew (stomach hurting)
snicker snicker.
... housing will be dead, how?
Gov't spending will increase.
in fact, he is so shrill in his insistence of correctness, he makes it a point to repeat himself
yogi,
Never apologize, even when you are wrong, eh?
Typical...
Ok,
GDP = C + I + G + (X − M
Consumption (personal expenditures of households such as food, rent, medical expenses and so on but does not include new housing)
Personal expenditures were up just 0.3% on the month in May, having stayed flat the month before.
The May report on personal finances from the Commerce Department, published at 8:30 a.m. ET, tallied $768.8 billion in total U.S. savings, up from $608.5 billion in April, and the most since records began in January 1959."
No, arbitrage, I was right, so it's on you to apologize, but I don't really care.
green pant suit, courtesy of the Nazi
http://s75.photobucket.com/albums/i303/blonderengel/?action=view¤t=Bossini20green20Lg.jpg
Typical of what, Arbitrage_Macht_Frei?
Fourth quarter of 2010 for significant employment growth. Real GDP may (if the animal spirits smile on us).
Pigged post:
Well, part of the new new is going to be a resurgence in making those now bastions of undoc workers back into jobs for the unemployed and dropped off the back end.
Sucks to be undoc, but Americans are going to put the screws to the owners of those businesses muy pronto.
If I owned a franchise type business, I would be staffing it with autistic and working class kids in preparation. The local theater chain here does this, and it keeps the costs down. Going in there feels like I am back to my first job in 1982. One has to remember that smart business owners ruthlessly cut costs with the undocs, but when you get bills in the multiple thousands for violating employment laws, they go right back to the shadows, and then home when the supply gets too great.
Get ahead of the curve, next up will be the H1B scams. That means you, tech folks.
Broward needs a real job so he can pay for his parents social security;-}
Feel the changes, as our politicians scramble to get in front of the masses.
Politicians don't really lead, they just see where the parade is going, and act like they knew it all along;-}
Someday this war's gonna end...
he's right, he's right, he's right!!!
makes fist, stamps little foot, scrunches up face, and nearly cries
I think I could have settled for some delayed gratification on that...
you should see me in it
Investment:
The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey for July showed that 65.4 percent of the economists polled say the National Bureau of Economic Research will declare the deepest recession since at least World War II over in the third quarter of 2009.
Recession likely to end in Q3 2009-Blue Chip survey
| Reuters
The projected rebound in consumer spending is expected to be capped by efforts on the part of households to rebuild savings after sharp declines in home values and equity prices over the past few years, the survey said.
And the likelihood that federal, state and local governments will raise taxes to meet budget shortfalls, could hamper consumer spending and business investment further, it said.
On a yearly basis, GDP is expected to contract 2.6 percent in 2009, a slight improvement from the 2.7 percent contraction forecast last month and a 2.8 percent contraction projected in May's survey.
For 2010, the economists expect GDP to grow 2.0 percent, unchanged from the June forecast, but up from the 1.9 percent growth forecast in the May survey.
The survey, which was taken after the Labor Department said the jobless rate in June rose to 9.5 percent, the highest in nearly 26 years, showed the jobless rate peaking at 10.3 percent in the first quarter of 2010.
In June, the 53 leading private economists predicted the rate would reach 10.1 percent in the same quarter.
yogi,
I've said it a few times, and it bears repeating...
I changed my moniker from Arbitrage_Macht_Frei, because I didn't want to disparage homosexuals, gypsies, jehovah witnesses, or other victim types.
even the toughest of forecasts leave me wonderin why many respected economists and business people like this person below are sounding warnings of dire outcomes
it been a hard slog to get those close friends and relatives to believe that our economic system and our social order, is floating down the niagra river and headed for the falls
the short clip linked below could be useful in our effort to convince non believers
as you watch this brief segment of a charlie rose interview... please keep in mind pete peterson is not some quack with his hair on fire...he served in presidential cabinets, chaired the CFR, co-founded blackstone group and has a net worth of several billion dollars
YouTube - Charlie Rose - Pete Peterson
you should see me in it
Only if you wear the viking helmut too.
Living in the sun belt, I've never knowingly met a single union employee in my entire life. I have met a lot of former auto workers who've retired and moved here, though.
Flat Broke in the Free Market: How Globalization Fleeced Working People
By Jon Jeter
Hardcover, $25.95, 256 pages
W.W. Norton: New York
May 2009
At the dawn of the twenty-first century, the United States is giving birth to the first generation of Americans whose life expectancy will be shorter, not longer, than their parents'. Our system of global finance has put us on the precipice, teetering on ruin. As of mid-2008, the United States has bequeathed to the world the biggest speculative bubble, the worst housing crisis, and the gravest economic meltdown in nearly eighty years, and the response from America's political class has been the largest single transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in at least a century.
Globalization is an international shakedown, and its targets are ordinary people across the globe, men and women made sojourners in the country of their birth by global finance and its missionaries.
Daily Kos: Book review: Jon Jeter's "Flat Broke"
Someday this war's gonna end...
-you keep saying that, but how can it when wage arbitrage is the rule?
It bears repeating that you never apologized for offending many posters (not including me, who took no issue with your former name). I was wrong to stick up for you, and I apologize to those who rightly criticised you as offensive.
From WSJ GDP forecast survey
Q3-2009: Avg=+0.9%, Min = -2.5%, Max=+3.8% ; Morgan Stanley = +1.0%; JPMorgan = +2.5%; UCLA/Learner = 0.0%
Q4-2009: Avg=+2.0%, Min = -2.0%, Max = +4.4%; Morgan Stanley = +2.0%; JPMorgan = +2.0%; UCLA/Learner = +0.6%
kinky
look people, we're not seeing the green side of the GDP ledger for a few years
okay, let's say we do, how much and how long and at what cost
is it going to stay green? is it sustainable? what's it based on, some bridges and new handicap accessible curbs?
get real
but disaster? violence? bloodshed?
more likely less ass on her, violins and woodsheds
look people, we're not seeing the green side of the GDP ledger for a few years
Not true. My gov't sponsored friends are happy as clams.
Funny how some people see anti-semitism everywhere, but when the biggest anti-semite to come down the pike rips off his own people, the same people were as quiet as church mice.
barfly, wage arbitrage ends with the dollar as reserve currency.
When that happens, the US worker will be quite competitive with the rest of the world. The US consumer, not.
How is that for a succinct precis?
I meant to say that we might see some slight real GDP by the 4th quarter of 2009- but I would not count on it.
I just hope for stabilization of the economy- an end to the downward spiral for now.
Someday this war's gonna end...
G is for Government:
Interest payments on the debt alone cost $452 billion last year — the largest federal spending category after Medicare-Medicaid, Social Security and defense. It's quickly crowding out all other government spending. And the Treasury is finding it harder to find new lenders.
You can't spend what you don't have!
Federal tax revenues are collected throughout the year but are highest in the month of April, when most tax returns are filed. A year ago, the Treasury’s April revenue totaled $404 billion. This April, it fell to just $266 billion. That’s the largest April-to-April decrease since at least 1981 (the earliest year for which we could find monthly data).
OFF THE CHARTS; In the Unemployment Line, and Stuck There - NY Times
The long-term unemployment rate -- the proportion of the labor force that has been out of work for at least 15 weeks -- climbed to 5.1 percent. Until this year, the post-Depression high for that rate had been 4.2 percent.
June was also the first month since the government began collecting the data in 1948 that more than half of the unemployed people had been out of work for at least 15 weeks.
The proportion of workers without jobs for at least 27 weeks rose to 2.8 percent, which is also the highest since World War II.
The figures reflect an economy where the pace of layoffs and firings has slowed this year, so that fewer people are being added to the unemployment rolls. But the pace of new hiring is now even lower than it was when layoffs were peaking.
Hmm things look pretty bad....I hope it gets back to how the 70s were. Ah that was good times...Shoot.....Chinese creditors and Retirees wanting their money. I better hide behind this couch that I paid on credit while I think. Should I start a business? Man....lots of regulations, taxes, and stuff I have to worry about. Not to mention there's no manufacturing here...I would have to outsource from China/Vietnam. Then I would staff it with illegal immigrants who don't pay taxes, so I can save money. How would that help US? ..man those retirees are really loud....ok let's see....I guess I'll just make my son work. Except he just plays video game all day, and asks me for money for starbucks and shoes....lazy ass.....takes after his parents. Don't get me started on my daughter....keeps spending money on Hannah Montana/slutty clothes. Ah screw it. I will just run up more money on my credit card; I'll figure out tomorrow.
You can't spend what you don't have!
Of course you can, that's why it's called deficit spending.
Q1 2010- 0.8%
Q2 2010- 0.8%
Q3 2010- 1%
Q4 2010- 0.8%
Wow, predicting the growth of the economy seems to be really easy.
Jeebus, I made my prediction of the recession end (march April 2010)In Q4 2008; how bloody hard can it be? 1 month from first tremors to the point they put together a rescue package, then that many months for it to nominally turn around.
Pulled the theory out of my kiester, but its still operational for another 10 months.
Yogi-your wrong! I said it for you..
Obama urges Americans to have patience for his stimulus plan ( which will kickstart GDP growth ) so relax.... REAL hope and change is just right around the corner....you betcha
Healthcare Plan = stealth stimulus?
Doc, where is the rising interest rates from the bond vigilantes?
Oh wait, they are swamped with all of the money being parked on the sidelines, now that most commercial paper is ineligible for inclusion in money market funds.
Gee, panic does wonders for the bond market in terms of absolute return, but next year there will be no profits to be had in being long bonds, a state I expect to continue for a decade or a little longer.
Pimco's Gross is terrified that the 70's are back, and he manages a couple trillion of what will be wasting assets.
There is no crowding out when there is miniscule effective demand for new corporate or municipal bond issuance- where does the money go?
Treasuries
Someday this war's gonna end...
The bad news - by the time real GDP growth kicks in again we'll have another 4M Americans whacked from the middle class ranks
From previous thread - THE VANISHING MIDDLE CLASS
New York Post THE VANISHING CLASS - NYPOST.com
These aggregate forecasts are probably less useful than they have ever been in my adult lifetime. There are massive changes going on in the economy. Regardless of whether next quarter is a +1 or a -1, many businesses and jobs will continue to go straight down the toilet, while there will be significant opportunities for the nimble and the liquid.
JP,
I forgot about deficit spending, but what about Verdoorn's Law which suggests that America will be selling a shitload of Ford and Chevy trucks in Japan next year .....LOL!
... the US worker will be quite competitive with the rest of the world.
It seems to me there is some threshold in our liquidity trap beyond which prediction is useless.
We might even be there now.
creditcriminallovestarp: yogi you're wrong
there I fixed it for you
Healthcare plan = kudlow entrepenurial explosion, green shoots for everybody!!!!
Doc Holiday, First - just to be clear - growth is from the bottom, not from the peak.
Although I don't expect much good news later this year, I do think auto sales will increase slightly. I think there is a good chance housing starts have bottomed. I think the inventory correction might be over soon. That removes several key drags from the economy.
Non-residential investment in structures will continue to decline, but that is a lagging component of GDP.
Take away some of the negatives - sprinkle in a little more "G" - and you get some minor growth. That isn't much different than Roubini's view - he is looking at flat in Q4 and a little growth next year. There are still many problems with the economy, and I don't see an engine for growth for some time.
best wishes
Citizen Allen,
Is that why Vanguard closed The Treasury Money Market Fund?
1-9 million lower middle class
10-99 million middle middle class
100-999 million upper middle class
there we now have a new middle class.
thank you Volker-damn vikings are english majors! hoocoodanode....now go do some pillaging....
I don't think the actual mechanics of where GDP count for much. Slightly positive, slightly negative, now, later, it hardly matters. The formula is for a period of positive GDP growth combined with mild deflation, certainly as far as it really matters the actual GDP numbers won't help us much.
CR:
"sprinkle in a little more "G""
LOL! Like a few Trillion!
Ancient history:
BBC NEWS | Europe | Czechoslovak dissidents' mental resistance
Is that why Vanguard closed The Treasury Money Market Fund?
Because minuscule yields do not pay for expenses running the fund
See y'all later
CR-in regards to your slightly comment, what are you thinking this is on the auto sales front?
I disagree...don't believe the pundits..credit application penetration for auto is down again this month so far...and its really down in SE......
There is no way GDP goes positive anytime soon.
I'm on the front line of trying to get stimulus funding from the DOE for the energy industry, and I can tell you that the promise of funds has actually HURT the 2nd quarter (and likely the 3rd) as everybody stops all other spending while they wait for the handout, which isn't likely to be distributed until Q4 or even Q1 next year.
We were doing fine Q1, but all the opportunities dried up in Q2 with everybody focused on conserving their own cash.
We will see a bottom when economists give up trying to call one.
Economists seem to be in the business of making astrologers look good.
"....now go do some pillaging...."
all in good time, Saturdays and Sundays is for burning villages, we pillage on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays; Tuesdays and Thursdays are rape day.
Well, upper management will find their is much less surplus to make them near rich.
Companies that survive will be a lot leaner, and a lot meaner.
Workers in export industries will be better paid than most.
Moral of the story- get hired to prep Harley Davidson repos for shipment to Shanghai.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Volker, the tuesday and thursday thing is not good....in fact thats when you find yourself up agains a celtic druid with a mean streak....we don't like that word....
Vanguard closed the Treasury Money Market Fund because the situation had changed and no longer fit the parameters required for the fund. i.e.--too risky. Don't ever think Mr. Vogel has lost a step.
I know this was touched on yesterday, but as a public service for my fellow humans:
Output gap
Output gap - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Okun's Law is based on regression analysis of US data that shows a correlation between unemployment and GDP. Okun's law can be stated as: For every 2% increase in potential GDP, the actual employment rate exceeds the natural rate of employment by 1% of the potential GDP.
Also see: Okun’s Law, the GDP Multiplier, and the Stimulus
Is the Stimulus Package Too Small? - International Business Times -
....the recent unemployment rate of 9.4 percent suggests that the economy is operating at a GDP gap of 8.8 percent. Given that GDP is currently $14,089.7 Billion, we appear to have a GDP gap/recession of $1,462 Billion.
Citizen Allen M,
I see your point, but at some point the fed will start to buy their bonds to mop up liquidity( before then yields will slightly rise), at that point muni yields will flatten, then spike. The question is where muni yields blow out on the curve.
I think; this stuff makes my head hurt and I'm sorta good at it.
the green pantsuit is a green shoot?
That was a good link, if you didn't visit:
Assuming that $300 Billion of the Stimulus Bill takes effect this year, followed by an additional $400 Billion in 2010, the initial stimulus to the economy would be $450 Billion followed by an additional $600 Billion, for a total stimulus of $1,050 Billion by the end of 2010—just about enough to offset the current recession if additional government or other spending occurs--as is frequently the case. With a multiplier of 2 the outlook would be somewhat more favorable, but then again it appears that the GDP gap will continue to increase, given that unemployment is still rising.
Citizen AllenM - thank you for the civil replies. Suffice it to say, I don't think "this war" ( vague in itself) will ever end. I like all the other points you make, though.
liz: snork
Pantsuits may stimulate my economy and provide recovery.
Google Image Result for http://fashion.mirror.co.uk/Pantsuit.jpg
the Olduvai theory is interesting...
Here's a potential timeline from Wiki:
1979: US per capita energy use peaked; still floundering on a plateau in 2006, but ready to fall precipitously (‘cliff’) at any time
2005: World crude oil probably peaked; still on an undulating plateau in 2007; starts off the ‘cliff’ ~2010-2012 or before
2005: World food production (grains) peaked
2008 (or sooner): World Natural Gas peaks
2010 (or sooner): Natural Gas ‘cliff’ arrives
2012 (or sooner): US electricity blackouts and brownouts become the norm
2012: US potable, available water peak and ‘cliff’; shortages and waterborne diseases increase
2015: US Health Care System in complete chaos, breakdown and failure; sanitation, drugs, return of communicable diseases, poorer nutrition etc.
2015: World “Dieoff” begins in earnest; largely starvation, disease and poor healthcare caused
Doc: there was a day.........sigh
"Output Gap"
In our view, if the output gap reaches 10 per cent, which now seems likely, the US economy will be in depression territory.
Doc lays it out sans emotion. And he is correct.
Another way to say it is the Fed/Gov can't inject liquidity faster than 'wealth' is destroyed.
It's a controlled destruction so far, and tenuous to boot. That's why nobody will fess up.
Here's my new endeavor or area will I will be pursuing it ...
Siskiyou County California Gold Production
love the outdoors and making coin....
"....now go do some pillaging...."
See: The Happy Warriors (Gerpla), by Halldor Laxness. Icelandic Nobel Prize for Literature winner.
you want a recovery
i got your recovery right here
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It is suggested that government spending is more effective than tax breaks. Perhaps our friends at Treasury could cut taxes instead of a second stimulus?
And how the $800 billion/annum in home equity withdrawals will be replaced?
No recovery til that happens.
For you, Juvie.
WeChooseTheMoon.org — goes live at 8:02 a.m. Thursday, 90 minutes before the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 launch from Cape Canaveral, Fla. It will track the capsule’s route from the Earth to the Moon, ending with the moon landing and Armstrong’s walk — in real time, but 40 years later
Muni bonds are going to spike because of repayment issues.
The Fed is not going to pay more than lip service to mopping up liquidity until we have a real amount of inflation coursing through the economy. The Fed has to wait, or get killed by the 1937 paradox.
This is going to take a lot longer than smart folks think, the economy is very slow to adjust to new reality, as are a lot of folks in the real world still relatively unaware of the changes coming.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"It is suggested that government spending is more effective than tax breaks. Perhaps our friends at Treasury could cut taxes instead of a second stimulus?"
How would it pay for expenditures after tax cuts?
(rosebud)
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Pavel:
See: The Happy Warriors (Gerpla), by Halldor Laxness. Icelandic Nobel Prize for Literature winner.
We can't tolerate any Laxness around here
Seriously that book is out of print and $200-$450. He is a prolific author so maybe one of the in-print ones...
Thanks Pavel.
HG,
I'll see you on the dark side of the moon on July 19th, 40 years ago.
How would it pay for expenditures after tax cuts?
So it turns out that dropping benjamins from helicopters would have
been the better actual alternative. That money would have got spent.
No money, no inflation.
Electrons sitting in banks is not money being spent, but an illusion
being maintained.
Vitamin G - take a trillion a month!
Gives your economy that "Get up 'n Go!" feeling.
"Seriously that book is out of print and $200-$450. He is a prolific author so maybe one of the in-print ones...
Thanks Pavel. "
You're welcome, Nervous Rex.
Laxness' vikings are knuckleheaded thugs, not a winged Wagnerian helmet in the lot.
Real warrior depicted here:
The Poetry of Pavel Chichikov
from over at jesses cafe american
quoting x sec of labor and econ prof robert reich as to why the V shaped and U shaped recovery hypothesis are nonsense
"Personally, I don't buy into either camp. In a recession this deep, recovery doesn't depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped.
Problem is, consumers won't start spending until they have money in their pockets and feel reasonably secure. But they don't have the money, and it's hard to see where it will come from. They can't borrow. Their homes are worth a fraction of what they were before, so say goodbye to home equity loans and refinancings. One out of ten home owners is under water -- owing more on their homes than their homes are worth. Unemployment continues to rise, and number of hours at work continues to drop. Those who can are saving. Those who can't are hunkering down, as they must. snip
My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained.
The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin...."
Docholliday doesn't have a thought in his head that he didn't get from a cut n paste job first.
To say synthesis eludes him is being beyond generous.
New Federal Program announced for all you financial junkies:
METH- Mega Emergency Treasury Help
Pavel, taxes will go up- the winners of the economic changes must pay the losers through their taxes and changes in the social spending mixture.
Tax cuts- or even the puny checks mailed out were very low return of stimulation for a lot of money. Windfall money is spent by some, but saved by others. As I have tried to point out, savings will essentially be punished through low returns for at least a decade- maybe two.
How is that for grim?
Wall street is not geared for the low return game, witness the closing of the Vanguard Tbond fund referenced above.
Most of America is similarly not geared for a low return environment.
Now, get used to it, and wait for the inflation to finally hit.
Meanwhile, stuck in boredom, back to cleaning.
Someday this war's gonna end...
(Col. Kilgore's closing line in Apocalypse Now- chosen for the anomie, and question implied that there would be something after the war that would be a let down to the speaker.)
"How would it pay for expenditures after tax cuts?
Sorry.
I keep hearing that hypothesis and I want to know if it's been thought out and calculated. The US economy is a vast and mysterious machine, not a lawn mower designed by industrial engineers. Lives are at stake.
There is no crowding out when there is miniscule effective demand for new corporate or municipal bond issuance- where does the money go?
Treasuries
jas jain's comeback.
Equilibrium: The Phillips Curve and the MPRF
Z **Inactive** Brad DeLong's Slides: Equilibrium: The Phillips Curve and the MPRF
Cheers
Wouldn't it be something if the apex and nadir of America were to happen on July 20th, 40 years apart?
Mock,
somebody just told me the Graf Zeppelin just went down; what have you heard?
if you can't bother to look at the topics over the last two days before you post, why bother posting stuff like that all?
06-20-69
06-20-09
okay, all you numerologists and mystical tinhat types
what's it gonna mean?
"Wall street is not geared for the low return game, witness the closing of the Vanguard Tbond fund referenced above."
Or an insolvent AIG still looking to bonus their financial services unit that ran an otherwise profitable venture into the ground.
I think July is a "seven"?
or that green pant suits will come back into fashion...
I think July is a "seven"?
In Fortran we trust.
" Pavel, taxes will go up- the winners of the economic changes must pay the losers through their taxes and changes in the social spending mixture.
Tax cuts- or even the puny checks mailed out were very low return of stimulation for a lot of money. Windfall money is spent by some, but saved by others. As I have tried to point out, savings will essentially be punished through low returns for at least a decade- maybe two."
Citizen AllenM, practical problem for us. We calculated our return against inflation, and it seems we're settling now for a rate that just keeps pace with inflation or very slightly exceeds. We're placed in a very conservative entity which is about as safe as you can find, though of course there are no guarantees in the event of unforeseen meltdown. Guarantees of perfect safety are, in any case, only fictional. Fortunately, we don't depend on interest for expenses.
A friend of mine, whose aged father in law was dying wanted to have a candle lit
for his spirit to fix on (or something) at his passing, and mentioned that the
candles for this purpose were blessed on candlemas day. Of course I had
heard of candlemass day, but didn't know that.
Got me to thinking. She raised her kids in the church, even tho she stopped
being a believer decades ago. Before me, even. Maybe I'm wrong. The Catholic
Church keeps maintaining it is about capital T truth, and I accepted them at their
word. But suppose it is for nearly all people, nearly all the time, about the comfort of ritual, really? Ritual the most interesting of which has been abandoned, because the people in charge took themselves at their own word, about the capital T truth thing.
Altho I had to go to mass every day as a kid, and found it immensely boring.
I find the non-latin mass even more boring. But I'm sure that some people thought
it comforting.
My mother was complaining that the church (shaped like a pyramid!!) doesn't
have enough statues. The few bigger churches I've been to look like
indoor stadia, or gas stations with carpeting.
Seems to me they've misjudged their market.
How The Average U.S. Consumer Spends Their Paycheck - with pretty graphic:
34% on housing
17% on transportation
12% on food
10% on insurance/pension (SS)
Average pre-tax income - $63k
Average annual spending - $49k
How The Average U.S. Consumer Spends Their Paycheck | VisualEconomics.com
For those of you scoring @ home....
July is named after Julius Caesar.
et tu Brutus?
"We anticipate another “jobless recovery,” which implies a relatively feeble one. We would not be surprised to hear terms early in 2010 such as “double dip.” - Kasreil
"I think Kasriel might be a little too optimistic about 2010. I think the real GDP growth will turn slightly positive sometime in the 2nd half of this year, but my guess is 2010 will be barely positive, with the unemployment rate rising for most of 2010." - CR
If this were like past recessions sure but everything about this event is not like past recessions. It wasn't led by unemployment most notably. We have an unusual bubble recession that has only lately been overlaid with a more typical unemployment profile. Second, this event is now clearly going to be much longer lasting than postwar recessions. Even those who thought this would be a recession were not prepared for this length of downturn. Third the monetary crisis. Responses will be very constrained.
OT: Juvenal Delinquent : July is named after Julius Caesar. et tu Brutus?
Are you suggesting 2010 be rename Brutal?
when did they change the numbers?
that why they call me old dumb volker
07-20-69
07-20-09
lawyerliz,
One thing that has always fascinated me about churches, is they have the most architectural freedom of any buildings in virtually every society, but there is almost no freedom of thought within them...
"the winners of the economic changes must pay the losers"
that's a laugher. the real winners - the truly rich like Hanky Panky Paulson and a few thousand of his closest GS buddies - are able to easily live off muni bond income for the rest of their lives, with maybe enough for their great-grandkids to enjoy a similar life. i'm sure that's the final act for many of their rape and pillage of the other 99% - wait for CA and NY to start issuing 10% coupon muni bonds when they're on the edge in a year or so and then call it a day.
only losers and shmucks have taxable income.
You're still one hell of a viking.
and go village burning; I'm tired of seeing you never leave the ship!
Now drink this
"The Catholic
Church keeps maintaining it is about capital T truth"
Sort of, but not in the people.
As for ritual: In a dinner table exchange with Mary MacCarthy, Flannery O'Connor responded to the assertion that the sacraments were, of course, only (comforting) symbols. She said that if the Blessed Sacrament were only symbolic, then the hell with it.
Only people wasting their time would partake for the comfort of a ritual.
"Altho I had to go to mass every day as a kid, and found it immensely boring."
If you didn't understand and feel it as the inpouring of glory, it's not surprising that you were bored.
that why they call me old dumb volker
No, good viking. After all the vikings gave us Frias Goddess of love, fertility, battle, death and bank failures.
All these eensie weensie numbers--aren't they all within the margin of
error?
I see a particularly bad segment of the world, but there are worse
ones. Things are not getting better in South Florida.
Frankly, dealing with my mom's move and moving my office and
caused me to reflect how much stuff we have, and how much less
we could do with. Also, stuff really lasts a long time now, much longer
than when I was a kid.
I really should go and make some blueberry muffins. Lots of cheap
blueberries and we bought our share.
I want someone to tell me just where an economy-sized recovery
is gonna come from.
brutE.
vocative, rookie...
Mrs. Gnome made fresh blueberry pancakes for breakfast this morning.
Delicious.
Start on those muffins right away!
Juvenal Delinquent, A friend of mine is a historian, and he asked me: "500 years from now, what do you think the 20th century will be remembered for?"
Hmmm ... I started thinking out loud ... Einstein? maybe. Hitler? Probably not. Technological innovation? Nuclear weapons?
My friend argued it would be July 20, 1969. He is probably right.
best to all
"I want someone to tell me just where an economy-sized recovery
is gonna come from. "
the same place the bogus "recovery" of '33-'37 came from - massive instant devaluation
HomeGnome: I love you too.
Never felt anything going to church, much less any inpouring of
glory. Anybody else besides Pavel feel this.
I did feel something glorious once--walking into the Pantheon.
And it wasn't the Catholic statues around it that did anything, it
was the glorious godly architecture.
Where do we intend to go in the next 40 years is the the question, methinks.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 12:35 p
Mock,
somebody just told me the Graf Zeppelin just went down; what have you heard?
if you can't bother to look at the topics over the last two days before you post, why bother posting stuff like that all?
i hang out here pretty often, but at times the family business does call
if i re hashed an old idea or link im sorry
seems to me the idea that the (this model) economy is not going to recover, as in resume back on track to where it went off the tracks...is a potent idea
we are headed for an entirely new paradigm, or economic self immolation
I made crepes, was tempted to add blueberries, but didn't.
@CalculatedRisk
Well said.....it's sad that the greatest moment of our generation is a moment that inspired a million thoughts that could've lead to our greatest moments.
Warm blueberry muffins (fresh from the oven) and a glass of cold milk.
THAT's good for what ails you.
CR,
I was 7 years old and living in Port Washington, NY in the summer of '69...
My mom took me to the tickertape parade in NYC after the crew came out of isolation (they were worried about moon germs), and i'll never forget it~
Every other parade since then has paled in comparison.
There were several more moon missions planned. They were
scuttled because they were deemed to be too expensive.
Plan to go out and watch the launch this evening.
Actually, I think it will be remembered for the invention of the
internet.
I saw one of the launches from Miami; it happened to be at the
lined up at the end of our street. A pillar of fire.
In our view, if the output gap reaches 10 per cent, which now seems likely, the US economy will be in depression territory.
Sadly, if you look macroscopically at the US economy, you see that about 17% of spending is funded by Ponzi borrowing. Obama's trillions are simply an attempted replacement of collapsing private (and shadow banking) borrowing with public borrowing. Should the lender financing be cut off, down goes "GDP" by that amount. Heaven help us.
(they were worried about moon germs)
Now THESE are the moon germs that LA worries about: Mooning Amtrak Trains, Southern California USA
"Every other parade since then has paled in comparison."
Are we still talking about the MJ funeral?
July 20, 1969 may not be remembered at all because it was such a false start. It is likely to be a footnote to a sentence like "Real space travel began in 2042, when Eastasian astronaut Wen Lee landed the first cargo ship on the moon and workers began building the first moon colony."
Whether anyone will bother to translate history books from the dominant languages into English is another issue.
My friend argued it would be July 20, 1969. - CR
Sadly I suspect that date will be identified as the most accurate recording of Peak Empire since the afternoon of 11 June 323 BCE.
"you see that about 17% of spending is funded by Ponzi borrowing"
that's extremely conservative. at least an additional 17% of "product" was related to this in the peak bubble years 03-07, realtor income, construction jobs, spending at home despot, etc...
In history, we always remember the 1st person/persons to have done something, and #2 doesn't mean squat.
Go ahead and tell me the 2nd person to fly across the Atlantic solo after Lindbergh?
(No fair looking it up on google)
mock turtle is Robert Reich?
In history, we always remember the 1st person/persons to have done something, and #2 doesn't mean squat.
We honor Sir Edmund Hillary.
Rob Dawg is certainly right and astute about the date--no snark intended.
17% of "product" was related to this in the peak bubble years 03-07, realtor income, construction jobs, spending at home despot, etc...
My method focuses exclusively on the source of funds, not what they are spent on. It is relatively objective, and easy to analyze. If one of the four hoses squirting in your sink is turned off, you get 25% less water.
I fear it is a 13.9 Trillion chit hump through the Valley of Debt back to the Landing Zone...
and even then we'll have to wait on the Recovery Gunship which is currently based on the USS Credit Bubble somewhere in the Globalization Sea.
it's fun and interesting to play these sort of important date games
I'll go ahead and say that we're still way too close to call anything just yet
but--never doubt the Dawg
Dont think that money is being spent Plantagenet; simply captive electrons
on balance sheets; you'd be right if it was being spent.
You guys do know that the Mars rovers are still roving on Mars. About 100 times their
designed longevity. They've gotten miles away from where they started.
There's a short video of pictures of a dust devil doing by on Mars. I
found this thrilling, but others I showed it too--not.
In history, we always remember the 1st person/persons to have done something, and #2 doesn't mean squat.
We honor Sir Edmund Hillary.
We honor charles lindberg too. But no one remembers the names of the first to cross the atlantic by air.
(It was three naval aviators. I don't know their names either)
The first was almost certainly a Sherpa or other native person.
According to Americans the Japanese build the best cars. The rover can't be that good can it? How does JD Powers rate the Japanese Rover?
Don't think that money is being spent Plantagenet.
That's a percentage of GDP. You can argue with GDP in many ways, but it's a reasonable surrogate for peoples' aggregate income (whether earned, "welfared," or scammed). Take away a percentage of GDP, and some people will be bereft of income they once had.
Tenzing and Hillary reached the top together, who was the next alpinist to be on top of Everest after them?
See what I mean?
For space flight, Yuri Gagarin would be the only one that matters.
Plantagenet--because velocity is slowing
talk about this
If a tiny fraction of those wasted electrons had been given to NASA. . . .
Just think of what we could have done. .
Ahh, so the name of the Sherpa is known!! Good.
Well Juvenal, who was the first to cross the atlantic by air?
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 12:35 p
Mock,
somebody just told me the Graf Zeppelin just went down; what have you heard?
if you can't bother to look at the topics over the last two days before you post, why bother posting stuff like that all?
ok comrade alexie mekhailovich
i went back and checked all comments for the past two days doing a word search for jesse's cafe and robert reich
i checked more than the last 2000 comments and found no reference to either
so i dont know why you criticized my alleged repetition of jesse's post
let me suggest you consult Boris Morozov next time
Alcock & Brown were 1st.
"If one of the four hoses squirting in your sink is turned off, you get 25% less water. "
expecting anything resembling exactitude in a system built on imaginary deposits of imaginary money where "services" provide over 2/3 of the "product" is a bit silly.
my speculative opinions are more based on the fact that govt and construction were the only source of signficant job growth in those years. of course, i have a new-yorker-cartoon kind of myopia, i don't live that far from the 15 corridor, where far, far more than 1/3 of the "GDP" has been vaporized.
So how much has GDP fallen, total? 2-3%? I could cut that much and not even notice
it.
Sounds like the pain is not being spread out, even if you disregard the top1%.
The rover can't be that good can it?
The rovers were custom designed, and every part of them was rigorously tested in a wide range of extreme conditions. They even had special wind tunnels with Martian air density to test the drag parachutes for landing (first round failed, next design OK).
American cars could be that good, if left to the engineers, and sold for $100M each.
mock: don't worry about it. CAM was alluding to the fact that Reich's post was the subject of a CR post a couple of days ago.
Give Juvenal a prize!!!
(but wait, Wiki sez someone named Albert Reed & his crew were first...)
.
First isn't all it's cracked up to be - a publicity machine helps.
I doubt many readers or 'mericans, or other citizens of the world, know who Alcock & Brown were. I don't w/o google/wiki
Strike, Strike, Strike!
The State Worker: SEIU Local 1000 president's letter to governor: 'We will fight'
I want to see some TV reports on Monday where contractors are striking in front of banks, complaining they can't get their IOUs cashed. Perhaps mocking Arnold in his accent.
First isn't all it's cracked up to be - a publicity machine helps.
Having an Anglo base helps as well. E.g. Leibniz, Tesla, and the Pasteur Institute.
Texans pulled back on buying and spending in June, as the state reported an 11.2 percent drop in sales tax revenues for the month, by far the largest decline this year.
The state comptroller's office announced Friday that it collected $1.57 billion in June, compared with $1.77 billion the same month last year.
Texas sales tax collections in June dropped 11.2 percent | McClatchy
I criticize because CR gave it it's own bloody thread and a cursory look at the home page would have served you better.
The point is that we can do really good stuff if we want to.
And see, even though the space program is our Gothic cathedral,
Plantagenet waxes wroth over it.
I walked though the vehicle assembly building recently. It
has the feel of a Gothic Cathedral, with no stained glass
windows, and very very dusty. We were very close to the Aerial (sp?)
rocket (maybe a mockup, not sure, but it is planned to fly, anyway).
Maybe the truth is the media isn't interested any more. Michael
Jackson is more entertaining.
"American cars could be that good, if left to the engineers, and sold for $100M each."
That is the indirect point. The rigged BK does not correct the real problem but supports the political power houses that will kick the can down the road. Americans can be the auto leader at a fair cost if the hand cuffs are taken off. Loosening them will not do it. Very sad.
squid,
You'd have to put in perspective...
There was a $25,000 prize for the 1st solo crossing, and a number of pilots (WW1 ace Nungesser amongst them) went missing in attempting the crossing.
Lindbergh was the perfect hero type, (Scott Berg's "Lindbergh" is a great book) and the America of 1927 couldn't get enough of him.
The first one might cost that much, but not the rest.
You'd have to put in perspective...
Wasn't that albrt's point at 1:01pm (pst) ?
"it's a reasonable surrogate"
relative to itself, perhaps.
it will be interesting to see how higher taxes, busted credit scores due to foreclosures, etc, all combine to create a renaissance of the off-the-books cash economy.
Laika the dog.
C
HH, Miami already had a huge cash economy (I surmise). Now that noone has any
money, it doesn't.
Not that anybody cares, but the 2nd solo crossing of the Atlantic happened in 1932.
Ameila Earhart was the aviatrix.
Well, if the workers go on strike, well, is that significant?
Cali to shut down?
"I doubt many readers or 'mericans"
talking with a man who aced his graduate physics exam back in the '60s who didn't even know who Jack Parsons was...
historical memory is a funny thing.
it will be interesting to see how higher taxes, busted credit scores due to foreclosures, etc, all combine to create a renaissance of the off-the-books cash economy.
Higher credit card usage fees will contribute to this as well. A lot of the local retailers are trying to fight the increases already. If they offer discounts for cash transactions it's make it that much more tempting.
To quote James Osterberg, "Miami's a sunny town full of shady people."
re: the strike:
In CA (using 2005-2006 data), 15% of school districts are year round. The teachers cannot effectively join this strike until later.
Year-Round Education Program Guide - Multitrack Year-Round Education (CA Dept of Education)
Yep, Comrad, yep.
Home of the Weird.
@lawyerliz
It's hard to strike in california....it's sunny and the beach is a few blocks away. People don't have that kind of patience. Florida's the same I'm sure.
I found CR's thoughts interesting : "I think the real GDP growth will turn slightly positive sometime in the 2nd half of this year, but my guess is 2010 will be barely positive, with the unemployment rate rising for most of 2010."
It seems to be less positive, on balance, from the consensus view; but at the same time seems to generally support the consensus view that the "worst is (largely) over" economically, with a "jobless recovery" to follow.
I've found the recent economic forecasting consensus to be notable for a number of reasons. First, I don't believe "the worst is over", unfortunately. Second, as I've pointed out in this blog post:
Another "The Worst May Soon Be Over" Forecast | EconomicGreenfield
I find the relatively tight clustering of the consensus forecasts to be significant, from a statistical standpoint, as well as for other reasons.
At any rate I would be very interested in reading further thoughts from CR on what he foresees happening in through 2010...
"If they offer discounts for cash transactions it's make it that much more tempting."
If they also pay black market employees in cash they need the cash stream.
Jobless Recovery = Famine Buffet
Don't get Orwelled'
One fast question for the board here:
Where is The Stimulus cash going to? I pasted a post above @ 12:08 whic was:
Assuming that $300 Billion of the Stimulus Bill takes effect this year, followed by an additional $400 Billion in 2010, the initial stimulus to the economy would be $450 Billion followed by an additional $600 Billion, for a total stimulus of $1,050 Billion by the end of 2010—just about enough to offset the current recession if additional government or other spending occurs--as is frequently the case. With a multiplier of 2 the outlook would be somewhat more favorable, but then again it appears that the GDP gap will continue to increase, given that unemployment is still rising.
That fits with this pasted story today:
"The stimulus package is working exactly as we had anticipated," Obama told CNN in an interview from Ghana that aired on Sunday.
Forbes.com File Not Found
"A lot of it has been spent on ridiculous projects," said Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who was his party's presidential nominee last year.
Tenzing Norgay and Edmond Hillary had an agreement to never identify who placed the first foot on the summit; they stuck to this agreement to their deaths.
"that much more tempting. "
exactly, for small retailers or handymen-type service providers, it is beyond tempting.
it may be the only silver lining in the massacre of bricks-and-mortar retailers in their battle against amazon et alia - if someone's credit is so shot they can't use plastic anyways...
Ted: genau
as Patton said, (paraphrase) If everybody is in agreement then nobody's thinkng.
So how much has GDP fallen, total? 2-3%?
BEA web site comes in handy
GDP peaked in Q3-2008 at $14,413 Bil. In Q1-2009 GDP was $14,094 Bil, which is a 2.2% decline. PCE dropped roughly by as much. In terms of the size of the economy, we are back to the end of 2007.
Lawyerliz - you are spot on!
PS. For proper normalization - the US population growth is about 0.9% per year
Doc flounces off for a drink and some poker action. Doc ain't wrong though.
If they also pay black market employees in cash they need the cash stream.
Very true.
I wonder if the government is going to start data-mining financial data on a massive scale. The government could look at vehicle registration records, credit card purchases, mortgage data, etc. and compare that against what you claim you earned in income on your taxes.
I think a lot of people could be nabbed at first, when prior purchases were made on the record. More and more would just end up off the books though.
Citizen AllenM,
"(Col. Kilgore's closing line in Apocalypse Now- chosen for the anomie, and question implied that there would be something after the war that would be a let down to the speaker.)"
I always assumed Col. Kilgore's post-war activities involved a longboard and surf more exciting than beach break.
I forget what bone head politicians was on a talking head show the other night but he couldn't understand why the orders weren't flowing in for heavy construction equipment. Funny thing is there is a glut of all kinds of heavy equipment from the building bust. Who is going to order new?
"I wonder if the government is going to start data-mining financial data on a massive scale"
--It has already begun, IMO.
OBAMA’S 2010 FEDERAL BUDGET EXPLAINED IN PLAIN ENGLISH
Obama’s 2010 Federal Budget Explained in Plain English | OnlineForexTrading.com
he US Federal Budget for 2010 was released today, February 26,2009. Overall, roughly half of spending goes to the US Department of Defense with the remaining money divided among 22 other departments.
Here comes a spike in GDP ....LOL!
As I said a few days ago.
People copy those they think are their betters.
If the banks have "off the books" assets, trash etc - why can't I.
Because I will go to jail. Banks go to the Fed window for more money.
Too bad my income comes from clients funds that are placed into and paid out of a trust account. No way is anything off the books for me. Or do I need to hire a banker to teach me the right way to do this???? LOL
"Who is going to order new? "
Halliburton?
or maybe Treasury; they've got plenty of BS to haul.
"Too bad my income comes from clients funds that are placed into and paid out of a trust account. No way is anything off the books for me. Or do I need to hire a banker to teach me the right way to do this???? LOL "
There's the hint in there somewhere
"Halliburton? "
Cheney doesn't have a government credit card anymore.
Yes, but after that long speech about "Victory" it just sits there as a very unsettling point, doesn't it?
Someday this war's gonna end...
I'm not sure what Kasriel means by "double-dip", given that he's using it in the same paragraph as "recovery". Aren't those two contradictory ideas?
Also, if we believe there will be another wave of foreclosures (CRE, Alt-A) and an accompanying deleverging, wouldn't that imply that GDP will take another big turn downwards? Deleverging is not very good for PC or I. I'm not an economist, but it seems to me all these forecasts for recovery assume there will be no more deleverging.
"I forget what bone head politicians was on a talking head show the other night but he couldn't understand why the orders weren't flowing in for heavy construction equipment. Funny thing is there is a glut of all kinds of heavy equipment from the building bust. Who is going to order new?"
Take a drive from Bakersfield to Sacramento on Hwy 99, and you'll see billions of dollars of barely used heavy equipment on the side of the road, as many excavators or D9's or anything your heart desires. So many in fact that each and every lot is bursting at the seams, with no more room, chockablock.
I assume all of it will make it's way to China, sooner or later.
Yep, the relationships are based on Trust. That goes both ways. If I find I can not trust a client I fire them.
If you run the company store does it matter who the clerks or vice clerks are?
How can you have any real recovery in a system that is aging and deflating at the same time?
If you run the company store does it matter who the clerks or vice clerks are?
Family owned and operated would be the way to go. Less likely to dip into the cash box under the counter, less likely to squeal to the authorities.
Oh yeah, it was unsettling. Really the point at which the whole film becomes a much more unsettling experience.
I always thought Kilgore was a great juxtapose to Kurtz. Were Kilgore's tactics/antics really any more "sound" than Kurtz's? Who was "saner"?
edit - should have said sound not unsound
"any real recovery in a system that is aging and deflating at the same time? "
Breast implants?
CitiGroup to extend acceptance of California IOUs
CitiGroup to extend acceptance of California IOUs - MarketWatch
"A lot of it has been spent on ridiculous projects," said Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who was his party's presidential nominee last year
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich
you are right that CR used that quote on the 10th...i forgot
my point was to use that quote to interest people in checking out the additional observations Jesse (and btw eve smith) made regarding his reaction to reichs "X" recovery statements
Jesse's Café Américain
if you read jesse's commentary on reich statement i think youll find the part about the banking oligarchs tax on our economy an interesting take
i agree i repeated CR's quote and apologize to those who feel i wasted their time
Basel Too...thanks for the kind words
"Where is the stimulus going?"
Afghanistan?
Palin?
Which head was I thinking with?
Good point Lucifer.
We can't deflate and recover at the same time.
At this point I don't think we can inflate are recover either.
Is recovery a 12 step process?
"Hi, I'm America, and I'm a recovering alco, err, economy."
"Hi America!!"
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 2:40 pm
Average pre-tax income - $63k
Average annual spending - $49k
Given the wealth distribution in this country, using the average in an article addressed to a general audience is pretty dirty.
I guess that was chosen because it's a much higher number than the median?
Taliban Bumper Sticker:
Afghanistan- Where Empires come to die.
The new Gov credit plan was sold in the election as PAY GO turns out its will be PAY GONE.
Way OT - apologies in advance but - -
What is our objective in Afghanistan? Does anyone know? How would we know if we did "win" ?
Anyone know?
@ResistanceIsFeudal
The chart was based off of a government report, so
lots of fudging around in there I'm sure (Just like our beloved GDP).
Kilgore == guy who thought that asians could be subjugated like native americans.
The problem is that such an effort requires a massive amount of technological and cultural superiority. Europeans never had that advantage when dealing with asian cultures.
I Think the election noise was get Bin Ladin and it's game over. Past that not sure.
The median wage must generally increase for consumption to resume, and for this to happen the heavy taxes of the financial sector and the oligarchs on the real economy must be lowered significantly in proportion to its size.
Yes, both finance and intellectual property "taxes" need to decrease, and real taxes need to increase. It's all redistribution, in one form or another. Got to fill that debt tax one way or another.
As clueless as Congress is about the financial sector, they're much more hopeless when it comes to intellectual property, whether it be trademark, copyright, or patent.
Afghanistan- Where Empires come to die.
"When you're lying wounded on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Just roll to your rifle and blow out your brains,
And go to your God like a soldier."
from The Young British Soldier by Rudyard Kipling
But I'm certainly hoping for better for the Marines in Helmund.
churches, is they have the most architectural freedom of any buildings in virtually every society
In one sense, building software and building churches is similar. They are extensively hand-crafted work funded by the dominant paradigm of the time - religion and banks. The craftsmenship in the U.S. churches circa 1700-1900 is just amazing, you can see a peak in time/cost around the Great Depression when the shift to banks began.
.
.
"Kasriel" and "optimistic" shouldn't be in the same sentence.
.
.
My dad believed many years ago that Peak Empire occurred sometime around 1972-73, based on income/cost graphing he was doing.
Continuing with OT comments - as seen on The Oil Drum
The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: July 12, 2009
I've had a series of conversations with the CEO of Emergency Management Solutions in the past couple days and here is what I have learned:
- all her clients activated their pandemic plans when the WHO raised the pandemic level to 6
- at the conference held last Thursday they were told by the CDC that it looks like the best case scenario is infection rates this fall of 50% to 70% in North America with a mortality rate of 0.5%; this is comparable to the Asian Flu (H2N2) in which approx. 2 million died
- seasonal flu has an infection rate of 10% to 15% and a mortality rate of 0.1%
- businesses should plan for significant drops in revenue and up to 50% of their employees staying home due to illness
supply chain disruptions will occur
- "Social disruption may be greatest when rates of absenteeism impair essential services, such as power, transportation, and communications." (WHO)
- models by some of her bank clients show a potential economic drop of 20% and a slow recovery (>5 months)
- businesses that rely on groups of people gathering (restaurants, theatres, etc.) will be hardest hit, especially if a "do not congregate" order is issued
- if your business does not have a pandemic plan, there is not a lot of time to create and enact it but do not delay
There is more at the link
What is our objective in Afghanistan?
To learn poetry, or more specifically, this one from Kipling:
It does not pay for the Christian
to hustle the Aryan Brown
for the Christian riles
and the Aryan smiles
and he weareth the Christian down
and the end of the fight is a tombstone white
and the name of the late deceased
and an epithet drear
a fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.
Afghanistan--where Alex the Great made a poopy.
Here's a nice forecast from a year ago, S&P:
U.S. Economy: Gauging the Risks
BASELINE CASE: A LONG BUT MILD RECESSION
The July baseline forecast is for the recession to be mild but long. The stimulus payments came out earlier than expected, and appear to have been spent more quickly than expected, which has helped the economy through mid-2008.
Forecasts, meet darts.
[congress] is much more hopeless when it comes to intellectual property, whether it be trademark, copyright, or patent
It's a legacy of enforcement. The IP laws of the U.S. are tightly bound to physical reality and instantiation because that was an enforceable handle. They never anticipated the ease of duplication and propagation. Our IP laws are not IP laws but private property laws grafted onto IP.
TIM GEITHNER REFUSES TO ANSWER BRAD SHERMAN'S QUESTION!!! SUPPORT H.R. 1207 AUDIT THE FED
YouTube -
By the way WTF is Tim talking about.
some court this month is going to determine whether cell phone ringtones are "public performances" of a musical work, thereby entitling the songwriter/composer to another tranche of royalties.
From August 2008: according the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. U.S. GDP will slow to 1.5 percent before rebounding to 1.8 percent next year, another survey showed.
Dollar Gain Signals Pain; Rally Prompts Exit (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
And to think: that was the median forecast. Half were more optimistic! ROFL!
OT? Are fresh BB muffins ever really off-topic?
"Warm blueberry muffins (fresh from the oven) and a glass of cold milk."
Damn you, HomeG...............I might die for some fresh BB muffins........I can taste them now...........make sure you take plenty of mouth-watering pics........and, BTW, who's this "friend", Elizabeth?
In regard to The Obama Stimulus, which is going to Afghanistan -- there is also a handful of teachers who will stimulate the economy with their $35,000 jobs and The Americore helpers that will be making about half that and the increase in soldiers who will stimulate thing with about what a first grade teacher makes. This $800+ Billion will trickle down into the expresso shops and at some point boost used car sales later in 2010 as GDP reboots The American Dream and then carpenters will flow out of bars across the land ready to build new shopping malls, so that every city can have back-to-back Walmarts and a tsunami of unlimited spending power ... which will help China buy new cars from.... oh wait, .... never mind.
IMF says U.S. GDP should improve to 2% in 2009 after being flat in Q4 2008
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The U.S. economy has fared well considering the severity of headwinds it has faced, and GDP should gradually improve to around 2% in 2009 after being roughly flat in Q4 of 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its concluding statement of the 2008 Article IV Consultation with the United States.
IMF says U.S. GDP should improve to 2% in 2009 after being flat in Q4 2008 - Forbes.com
Another well crafted bundle. June 20, 2008.
Forecasts, Shmorecasts.
Re: "What is our objective in Afghanistan? '
To Stimulate The American Dream
What's 12 Billion between friends?
From the TimeMachine Year 2003.
The US flew nearly $12bn in shrink-wrapped $100 bills into Iraq, then distributed the cash with no proper control over who was receiving it and how it was being spent.
The staggering scale of the biggest transfer of cash in the history of the Federal Reserve has been graphically laid bare by a US congressional committee.
In the year after the invasion of Iraq in 2003 nearly 281 million notes, weighing 363 tonnes, were sent from New York to Baghdad for disbursement to Iraqi ministries and US contractors. Using C-130 planes, the deliveries took place once or twice a month with the biggest of $2,401,600,000 on June 22 2004, six days before the handover.
"Sorry California, we're all tapped out..."
So...is the strategy for the US government to deny state bailout outright? then have a few banks accept California IOUs, then a few more? But all 'temporarily'?
When will the other states catch on?
Blueberry muffins cooking. I'm thinking of apple blueberry cobbler. Lots
of cinnamon. Made with whole grain kamut. Ymmm, ummm, if I do say
so myself.
Question to Luci. Do escorts ever make anything with blueberries?
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Sun, 7/12/2009 - 4:05 pm
@ResistanceIsFeudal
The chart was based off of a government report, so lots of fudging around in there I'm sure (Just like our beloved GDP).
LOL. Well, it also serves a useful marketing purpose... Much like convincing people that they need to compete with neighbors' standard of living when they in fact own little and are strung out on debt and living on credit, people look at this figure and envy those "average" families, feel inadequate, etc.
OECD cuts U.S., euro zone growth forecasts; lowers Japan 2009 forecast - Forbes.com
The OECD slashed its U.S. 2008 GDP growth forecast to 1.2 percent from 2.0 percent, and its 2009 forecast to 1.1 percent from 2.2 percent.
June 4, 2008 Forecast.
And to think: that was the median forecast. Half were more optimistic! ROFL!
From the previously cited July-2009 WSJ forecst survey:
25% of the surveyed economists forecast that in Q4-2009 GDP will grow faster than 2.5%, and 10% actually believe it will grow at the rate of >=4.0%. The highest forecast for the GDP growth in Q4-2009 is 4.4% by Gene Huang of FedEx Corp.
Question to Luci. Do escorts ever make anything with blueberries?
Liz! This is a family electron pool.
Seriously, did you see the movie "Tampopo"?
Fun with food...the first noodle western.
Maybe, a new profession.
Chefscorts.
"Question to Luci. Do escorts ever make anything with blueberries?"
escorts will make anything you want with whatever you want for a fee
Nope, didn't see it.
Experience changes us all, in sometimes unexpected ways. The movie was a raw reaction to recent history, and as such contained a lot of truth, truth that is once again swept under the rug to political expediency. What it taught me at a young age was that war as such is a waste of time to do anything other than commit total annihilation to destroy a people. We live in an era where the west and the east have swept through Afghanistan five or six times since the 18th century, forging a people into fractured and harsh survivors.
The Taliban was in essence, a true look at what they desired after all that idiocy. Pure, uncorruptable, Islamic and homegrown. Too bad they put the worst of the tribal repression into the package, which is after all, what they are.
Tribes are too small to be effective in the era of nationstates, and too big to just run a village. The ability to sacrifice large numbers of your people to attain victory signifies that you can indeed outlast the Americans, who just come to make surface changes. That is why the Iraqis were celebrating as we left the cities- they know we will be gone before long, and one of the last colonial constructs in the middle east will finally die.
Our methods are unsound, in that we can inflict immense damage on a foe, and not understand the foe sufficient to conquer and rule.
Because we are really unsuited to empire as a people. We admire the rebel too much, and do not desire to hang him for "the good of civilization."
That is the conundrum of the "American Empire"- to conquer a place like Putin did Chechnya is considered barbaric, but that is what it takes.
Someday this war's gonna end...
But can they cook?
The US flew nearly $12bn in shrink-wrapped $100 bills into Iraq, then distributed the cash with no proper control over who was receiving it and how it was being spent.
It is quite likely that most of this cash will not end up in the US any time soon, so what does it matter? It is even less harmful than banks hoarding cash. It's fiat money, anyway
But if you give cash to California, you will end up giving it to all states.
While inflationary, it does look like a very effective way to channel stimulus funds
Yes.. that is true! The best part is that these transactions are much more honest and transparent than any you will ever have with a non-escort.
//escorts will make anything you want with whatever you want for a fee//
We could nuke them...
//We live in an era where the west and the east have swept through Afghanistan five or six times since the 18th century, forging a people into fractured and harsh survivors.//
...and then carpenters will flow out of bars across the land ready to build new shopping malls, so that every city can have back-to-back Walmarts - patently false.
Find projects by state or territory
Stimulus Watch: Keeping an Eye on Economic Recovery Spending
We could nuke them...
Technically, but not politically
"The highest forecast for the GDP"
if the dollar has a collapse in early autumn which was equivalent to the corporate bond and equity collapse at that point last year, the GDP could fly to an annualized 5%+ pace . of course, it will mean absolutely nothing, like the GDP gain '33-'37, which our brilliant leaders seek to emulate.
MrM,
The caliph of Baghdad also thought that halaku khan would not kill every single muslim in Baghdad.. was he wrong!
We admire the rebel too much, and do not desire to hang him for "the good of civilization."
Interesting comment.
Perhaps that's the secret of our postWWII success.
Alcock and Brown - in a converted british bomber. 1919 as I recall.
Geithner ought to be lashed to a post until he answers the questions he is asked. He has obviously attended some Tom Hopkins seminars. "Rephrase the question in such a way that it allows you the response you desire." (Figuratively of course) Nail his tongue to a foot-long 4X4....and see then how much he relishes rephrasing.
I have just read the most stupid article - but quite telling as to the direction of the eco-PETAs...........how much CO2 am I throwing out by learning thru the internet? I imagine next, certain sites will be more green than others............I could be more polite, but both subjects are in my opinion packed full of cow-shit.
Greening the Internet: How much CO2 does this article produce? - CNN.com
Great point HollywoodHack.
Monetization->Collapse is the gift that keeps on giving.
We'll probably rationalize all sorts of benefits before too long.
He has brainwashed himself to the point where he believes his own c**p.
//Geithner ought to be lashed to a post until he answers the questions he is asked. //
MrM,
A big state bailout is unavoidable in all of the bubble states.
What needs to happen is the folks standing in the way of raising taxes and cutting costs on the state level need to do whatever needs to be done.
Washington has no desire to give Republican or Democratic grandstanders a big platform until they have toed the line.
In other words, state legislators should shut up and play ball, or find that Big O can easily let them swing.
California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida are already beginning to slowly get the message.
But hey, it takes a while, especially in places where there is a lot of state's rights garbage, and libertarianism.
Both of which will be obsolete for quite a while.
Get used to the new new.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Lucifer - Political considerations were of no importance to Halaku Khan. They do matter now. At least some sign of progress.
Re: "Chefscorts"
I ca see that job fitting into my post-internet economic cycle.
Stim checks is why the bottom is forming currently, will be seen as the apex of the W repression.
Will take something amazing for Q4 GDP to be negative YoY
MrM,
The caliph of baghdad also believed that political considerations would stop him... he also thought that the 'muslim umah' would come to his aid..
Doc Holiday,
You do not pay 200-300/ hr for a woman to cook for you. You can get a very good quality dinner for a 10th of that price.
Don't forget to add in the other bounce which is helping supercharge the economy:
The government has confirmed that most workers should start to see an extra $13 in their paychecks each week starting on April 1, 2009
"Funny how some people see anti-semitism everywhere, but when the biggest anti-semite to come down the pike rips off his own people, the same people were as quiet as church mice."
--Juvenile Idiot
What the fuck are you even talking about?
How is Madoff an Anti-Semite?
"one of the last colonial constructs in the middle east "
lol - so wrong on so many levels
Ahh, so no blueberry muffins for you, Luci!!
nobody said it, I'm just thinking it--there's gonna be a big ass stilus check coming soon, prolly in time to goose Xmas
Stim checks is why the bottom is forming currently, will be seen as the apex of the W repression.
Will take something amazing for Q4 GDP to be negative YoY
Stimulus checks were one time handout, already received and either spent or saved.
Other tax reductions are spread out and are too small to be meaningful (like $10-120 less payroll tax deductions per week).
I for one am not sure that Q4 will see much growth. More likely the economy will flatline
I think Lucifer is getting plenty of muffins.
I suppose he could buy a jar of high fructose blueberry jam with a blueberry and
a half on it and have the escort smear it all over ummm, non-bread.
nobody said it, I'm just thinking it--there's gonna be a big ass stimilus check coming soon, prolly in time to goose Xmas
lawyerliz,
The whole business of escorting is far closer to an adam smith-type free market than any of the gerrymandered grotesqueries we call financial institutions.
Gerrymandered grotesqueries........ooooh, oooooh, say it again.
You do not pay 200-300/ hr for a woman to cook for you
I sure don't.
If she wants to cook for me, I demand a show and sex in return.
I certainly do.. and the recession had lead to price deflation.
//I think Lucifer is getting plenty of muffins.//
Yes.. but I prefer 20 somethings who will leave after I am done.. and I do not want to pay alimony or child support.
//If she wants to cook for me, I demand a show and sex in return.//
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei unfortunately I can't stay long to watch you shove your foot down your throat even more but this is the third stupid, insensitive Anti-Semitic thing you've said. Just pulling out some inane "PC" card doesn't get you off the hook for sheer stupidity.
I suggest you put me on ignore. I will respond to your childishness every time I see it, and I'll be back soon.
For Chefscorts:
Stimulus Money Goes to Retrieve Old Crab Pots From Ocean Bed
FOXNews.com - Stimulus Money Goes to Retrieve Old Crab Pots From Ocean Bed
The money will be used to hire 48 people -- including 31 fishermen -- and to charter 10 vessels to retrieve an estimated 4,000 derelict crab pots, which pose a hazard to whales, seal lions and fishing boats, Jane Lubchenco said.
Yogster, Madoff was not exactly nice to anybody, including his fellow
Jews. Why is saying so anti-Semitic?
It is still a better idea than paying anyone at AIG.
//Stimulus Money Goes to Retrieve Old Crab Pots From Ocean Bed//
"there's gonna be a big ass stimilus check coming soon"
but will it be in the form of a direct check to the masses ala the previous goofball attempts, or will it be a big prorated 500 bil bailout to all 50 states?
i need to buy some GLD 150 calls in any case.
I do not want to pay alimony or child support.
"Alimony"?
"child support"?
I don't recognize those words, L.
Are they a Canadian sub-dialect?
Doc Holiday
thanks for the link to thee budget in pain english
excellent graphs and presentation
but just one issue for me
rebekah didnt mention (or i missed it) service on the national debt
something to consider
defense spendin 750 billion if you include black ops and veterans affairs, 650 without
social services 650b plus depending
and service, (interest payments) on the national debt...500 billion!!!
now thats a stimulus we can all believe in
lawyerliz,
Many retired people in Florida must be cursing Madoff every day.
Head North a bit...
"The Deadliest Catch" is one of the only shows I watch.
"The vast Bering Sea, over a million square miles..."
I never really thought about how many pawts are sitting on the ocean floors though...
"pain english" . Freudian slip?
That's my point, Liz. Please read carefully. An Anti-Semite singles out Jews. Madoff didn't.
"Popping yellow smoke, BomberBen. Do you see my location?"
"Roger HomeGnome, Dropping pallets of shrink wrapped 100's on your location."
"500 billion!!!"
still ridiculously cheap relative to the size of the burden and historical averages. i thought HHS was already at the trillion mark? that will be a 2tril+ by 2020, easy. too bad net federal revenue will be roughly the same as 2007 at that point. if we're lucky.
I thought you had personal experience with at least one of them..
alimony == ass reaming by vindictive bitch who once conned the guy into marriage
//Are they a Canadian sub-dialect?//
So it's YELLOW smoke one needs.
I wuz using green and wondered why nothing happened.
An Anti-Semite singles out Jews. Madoff didn't.
By that definition, Hitler wasn't anti-semitic, either.
He went after gypsies and small non-conformist groups, too.
For shoots, ya know.
I thought you had personal experience with at least one of them..
Nope.
Dodged a bullet.
Left the firing range for good.
He singled out people with money. Is there an anti-word for that?
yes "pain english" hahah
here the link to bar graphs by department all in one with the year over year trend nicely displayed
Federal Budget Spending and the National Debt
btw the spell check doesnt work on this website for my browser
must update os or whatever...java etc
so im lexdislic and cant spell ...sorrrrry
You did mention something about legal harassment by your ex-wife.
//Dodged a bullet.//
Luci and Broward==evolution in action.
too bad, their offspring would be inneresting.
The juvenile idiot will fall back his childishness when his logic is shown to be flawed.
check direct to consumers, prolly 12 to 20 hundred per household
fer de chirldren
pain's a word, and wouldn't be caught.
Dropping cash in Iraq just cost us money.
If we send cash to CA, it removes their incentive to fix their own problems, and creates 49 copycats. At this point, I would rather send cash to Goldman Sachs than to CA.
Of course, with bought-and-paid-fors like Geithner and Obama, we'll probably end up paying GS fees to bail California out.