" A newly-formed company has announced plans to build a huge solar power project in central Washington. If the plans come to fruition, it would be by far the largest solar electric plant anywhere in the Northwest... and perhaps the country. KPLU's Tom Banse reports. The developer's ambitious construction schedule calls for the solar park to be operational as early as 2011.
snip
The start up goes by the name Teanaway Solar Reserve LLC. The firm proposes to install more than 400-hundred thousand solar panels on a parcel of previously logged private timberland near the central Washington town of Cle Elum. Managing director Howard Trott says yes, it is sunny enough to justify a utility scale solar park.
snip
Trott says Washington voters created a market for higher priced clean energy when they passed a citizens initiative a few years back. It requires utilities to add renewable power to their generating portfolios.
snip
With full sun, the facility could generate enough electricity to power 45-thousand households.
corporations, with voter and taxpayer support, are making a major investment in solar and wind power in the PNW
"Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:03 am
I said it earlier, but Christmas this year will be telling. I predict many family purchases and less individual presents. Homemade gifts will be up."
My wife mixed cherries and Captain Morgan in canning jars and will be passing them out for the holidays.
Get the relatives drunk and happy.
I believe CR is referring to a qualification given by a firm's accountants that there is substantial doubt whether the firm can continue as a going concern.
albrt (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:26 am I believe CR is referring to a qualification given by a firm's accountants that there is substantial doubt whether the firm can continue as a going concern.
Although substantial doubt could occur anywhere in the filing (because my program searches the entire document) the samples I've eyeballed show it in the Going Concern section of the Basis of Presentation Note (this will get easier as XBRL rolls out). Anyway, it's not what most companies want to say anywhere in a report.
just quickly glossed over comments from White House's Plan C...
I thought we had enough sharpies here to toss in
Plan 9 from Outer Space (directed by Ed Wood)
we're just now seeing this man's genius, it's probably
got a hell of a better chance at success!
btw, an excellent Johnny Depp performance in the movie of
the same name....
"Note how the combined claims is twice as bad as the recessions is 1975 and 1982. Also note how the reported headline numbers were understated in the last recession. This is how manipulated the reporting is."
....it's about time........
".....the current number receiving unemployment benefits is 9.4 million." .....(not 6.8 mil)
"Also note that boomers are heading into retirement now.......and looking for jobs,.....competing against their kids and grandkids for jobs."
mock turtle (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 10:28 am
* reply
* Ignore user
most of us here look for cause and effect and try to put our finger on the reasons-why for the financial crisis
MBS, CDS, ratings agencies bought by financiers, the poor buying mcmansions, low interest rates at the fed, a breakdown in regulation, no doc loans etc etc
but is there not a root cause the hides underneath?
the conventional wisdom is that the problems on Wall Street caused the economic problems. I think they have it exactly wrong. It is the economic problems of the average person that has caused the problems on Wall Street. If median wages in the last 8 years had gone up by 2% instead of being flat- all of a sudden housing doesn't look so expensive and perhaps a lot more people would be in a position to make their mortgage payment.
All this effort on helping the banks is the equivalent of prescribing asprin for the head ache rather than dealign with the tumor that is causing the headache. Nothing that this administration has done is attempting to change the economic trajectory that got us here. While I have little sympathy for those who have over extended themselves I do think that we have to acknowledge that the stagnation in wages at least contributed to the problem.
HomeGnome,
Honestly I am afraid to look for any more info. I had a 'Don't Look Ethel' moment when the story broke. Then the growing realization that you can really sell empty promises and make a commission on it. Hell, maybe it is the beginning of the let's tax the air you breath strategy to solve global warming.
btw, mad as hell that both CNBC & Bloomie's didn't show coverage of Geither... I was taping to use for a mash-up...
here is a comment posted:
I am disturbed by how disturbed you are. How did you become this way? I'm sure that you might have an NYT bestseller on your hands.
Way more sordid than the fake Patrick Bateman epistle."
HomeGnome - I haven't read anything substantial regarding the IOUs as securities yet.
But this now means that it should act like a bond, no?
The IOUs should now have a rating, and registration. Also, the contractors and taxpayers have never agreed to be paid in thes securities so that should have some interesting implications.
I agree that the current yield is WAY too low for an entitiy that is effectively insolvent.
So this guy wrote a program that searches for certain key words that he thinks of as expressing "substantial doubt." You know, I'd have to see the program before I became a believer. Data mining is fraught with issues. Not to mention the problems with herding behavior and "tall poppy syndrome." When you're doing an SEC doc, it's so much easier to make the same noises as everyone else in the herd, whether the current fashion is for happy talk or doom. So, I'm not yet comfy with this from a stat analysis POV.
I'm very late to the party but...
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 9:26 am
I believe the period we are entering is in many ways be analogous to the Middle Ages in Europe. What happens when the King, because of bad policy decisions, becomes too weak to project his power throughout the kingdom? The other nobles become restive and begin to gather power onto themselves. What happens when these regional nobles (States) because of their own failures can no longer maintain the Kings peace for him?
If a company issues an SEC filing with a "substantial doubt" statement, that is a giant flashing SELL signal. It'd be interesting to see a historical analysis showing what the correlation between these filings and eventual bankruptcy.
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:24 am
Mel --
LBD is a tool. You speak in the east, he answers in the west."
Tools must be answered--knocked down at every opportunity. I hate smugness --also, many here seem to have simplistic "cures" for complicated, long festering, problems. Some that decry over-consumption are surely guilty of it themselves. A major problem with blogs is the difficulty of discerning who's bullshitting whom.
Why don't TPTB institute a "birth pollution tax".
I mean people output CO2 as a matter of respiration and are therefore polluters...
Unless of course, Cap and Trade won't do anything to reduce pollution.
HomeGnome (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 10:47 am
Why don't TPTB institute a "birth pollution tax".
I mean people output CO2 as a matter of respiration and are therefore polluters...
Unless of course, Cap and Trade won't do anything to reduce pollution.
What would the stats look like if a statement of "substantial doubt" had to be an answered question submitted with every individual taxpayer's return?
So many, who are home owners, are underwater, and with a deflationary economic environment likely to be with us for some time, a lot of job holders have to face the future with smaller incomes.
My wild speculation that the number who won't remain solvent or liquid, and either default or go bankrupt will continue to grow in cliff climbing fashion.
Could be called an inside house Think Tank. Rethink, rethink rethink. Do I cut my losses and run or stay and fight hoping an upsurge is just around the corner, yeh.
my apologies if this have been posted already, but more political capture today:
DNC fundraiser tapped as ambassador to Germany
15 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Obama plans to nominate Philip Murphy, a former finance chairman for the Democratic National Committee, to be ambassador to Germany, the White House announced Thursday.
The nomination continues a pattern of naming high-profile fundraisers and contributors to Democratic politics to choice ambassador posts, a long-standing political tradition.
Murphy once served as head of financial firm Goldman Sachs' Frankfurt office, which had oversight responsibility for Germany, Switzerland, Austria and the then-emerging nations of Central Europe. Murphy held a number of executive positions at Goldman Sachs and was a senior director from 2003 until his retirement in 2006.
So this guy wrote a program that searches for certain key words [...] I'd have to see the program before I became a believer.
Pretty simple grep, no interpretation required. I think you're underestimating the extent to which those words have a very specific CYA meaning. No one wants to use them, they do it to avoid getting the pants sued off of them for misrepresentation.
When you're doing an SEC doc, it's so much easier to make the same noises as everyone else in the herd
This is like saying that people file for unemployment because it's the hip new thing to do these days.
I'd love to see this graph with a single line: 'substantial doubt filings as a percentage of total filings'. Because as it stands the impact is sort of muted - you need to look at it twice to realize that hey, ok, the red line is lower than it was on previous occasions but waitaminit... why did it just cross the blue line...
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department allowed 11 smaller banks to repurchase stock warrants at only 66 percent of their market value, passing up about $10 million of taxpayer profits from government bailouts, a U.S. watchdog panel said on Friday.
In a new monthly report, the Congressional Oversight Panel said the government could lose $2.7 billion if it accepts similar valuation levels on warrants repurchased by remaining banks that received government capital injections.
You guys are to funny. Leading with your heart is almost always a sure sign of failure. None of these social programs for decades have cured nothing but have grown. Now tell me I am wrong.LOL!
Angry Saver,
You should not have got me started. Now I have "Always Look at the Bright Side of Life" going through my head. Put some Father Ted quotes in there too, and I will be officially dsyfunctional for the rest of the day.
Maybe we should combine some of these measures: consumer confidence, substantial doubt of companies about forecasts, and the inverse of CNBC pundit talk, into a mega-measure of things. )
But it is much easier to read CR and KNOW that things stink.
King Arthur: The Lady of the Lake, her arm clad in the purest shimmering samite held aloft Excalibur from the bosom of the water, signifying by divine providence that I, Arthur, was to carry Excalibur. THAT is why I am your king.
Dennis: [interrupting] Listen, strange women lyin' in ponds distributin' swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
replace king with Treasury Secretary....
We can refer to any harebrained scheme as a "Farcical Aquatic Ceremony."
corporations, with voter and taxpayer support, are making a major investment in solar and wind power in the PNW
There's a substantial rain shadow in Washington, near the town of Sequim. I was wondering when the alternative energy folks would figure that out. People laugh because they think that washington is constantly shrouded in clouds and rain, but sequim's dry desert skies are clear almost all of the time.
"...pending legislation declares "anybody who sends money to a ‘tax haven country' will be presumed to be committing tax fraud," Rubinstein says. "The burden will be on the taxpayer to prove he didn't commit tax fraud. The judge, jury and prosecutor will be the IRS.""
"Why don't TPTB institute a "birth pollution tax"....
,,,,and of course smokers will be taxed for fouling my air.......oh, and pot smokers too........that might be ironic - CA OKs pot use and then the FedGov taxes its use for being "yucky".
from a past thread
psychodave
omg that is great,so we finally got the spanish american war paid of,wow.thanks for answering.
i feel like a red-headed step child, we are all red-headed step children. can we do a recall on the house of purple.both houses, and ask our president if he is president of the federal reserve bank of the united states. or president of the usa.
This is like saying that people file for unemployment because it's the hip new thing to do these days. - bbl
Not really, I'm saying there is "herding behavior" going on at all times, no matter what the circumstances. This implies the "herding language" has less real meaning than might otherwise be the case. If everyone is covering his ass by making the same sort of "substantial doubt" noises, it's harder to tell which ones are really doubtful, and which are just following the herd. The people writing the filing documents likely have no downside risk in expressing "substantial doubt," whereas sticking your neck out seems more risky. It's human nature-- CYA.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A government program intended to spark lending to consumers and small businesses at cheaper rates supported nine deals worth a total of roughly $12 billion this month, down about 27 percent from June's total.
Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that investors requested $5.4 billion worth of loans in July as part of the program to boost consumer lending. The Federal Reserve on Friday said the money supports nine asset-backed securities deals worth $12 billion.
In mid-June, investors passed on their first chance to buy newly issued securities backed by commercial real estate loans when that part of the TALF program was rolled out. It is designed to boost the availability of commercial real estate loans, help prevent defaults and facilitate the sale of distressed properties.
The Fed monthly report also showed that the Fed lost $5.248 billion in the first quarter on the securities it acquired with last year's bailouts of Bear Stearns and insurer American International Group Inc. The figure was revised slightly from $5.254 billion reported last month.
While I generally agree with your observation on herd behavior, there are grades of CYA lingo, and when the equity markets are ultimately a confidence game that language is not used in the smae manner IMNSHO...
what the whole IOU's as securities thing means to me is that the holder's of said IOU's are being classified as bondholder's by the SEC so that they will need to take a huge haircut on them when the time comes for them to be redeemed. I do agree that the rate paid on these "notes" are ridiculous.......it may be that when the holder's sue, en masse, they will feel better about only losing the small amount of interest (+ actual value) and be forced to eat it ala GM (and many other force-fed filings).
In any case..there is a reason that a secondary market sprang up for these and the going rate is something like .50-.60 of face. Tells you something....
Bingo, Scone
It is nice to talk about morals and ethics, but few people honestly have them, people follow the herd. It is natural. That is why I think philosophy and ethics must be brought back to the forefront of the education system. The herd has to be trained all over again.
"...there are grades of CYA lingo, and when the equity markets are ultimately a confidence game that language is not used in the smae manner IMNSHO..." - e
Agreed! And that's sort of my point-- on it's face, at least, a simple grep wouldn't really model that very well. But like I said, I'd be willing to consider it if I saw the methodology in detail. That's always the thing, after all, look at the fact-gathering methodology before you even examine the purported facts on offer.
Anyone discussed the California IOU's being "securities" yet?
Bond Girl pegged this almost instantly, nearly a week ago, IIRC.
Completely off-topic, but things are getting fun locally - one of our local development FIRE magnates has flown the coop, purportedly after embezzling a bunch of funds from the HOA. He was in not one, but two of these upscale golfing developments. Schadenfreude is my middle name.
That's not a very good graph. By using two different scales it distorts the apparent ratio. Since they're both measuring a quantity of filings, you should only need one scale. Or maybe measure the substantial doubt filings as a percentage of the total.
That said, it is amazing that the number of substantial doubt filings has risen so little in a year of such turmoil. I guess the 2000-2001 numbers are pretty anomalous because of all the newly minted dot-coms dying quick deaths.
Of course honor may have gone out the door when dueling was outlawed. My dad always said this country started going to hell when cavemen couldn't whack the jerks upside the head anymore for being twits.
I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing. I'm thinking of "herding behavior" in a specific "behavioral economics" POV/context, which is my big thing at the moment. Of course, I just picked up the phrase recently, and it's not like I'm a deep expert or anything, but it fits in with the skeptical/empirical stuff I've been ruminating about. Here's a wiki on this that leads to a bunch of interesting articles:
"No riding at serfs in the field armed with sticks this time around."
BEWARE THE RIDER
See the great warhorse
There are none any more,
Champing at the bit
Steaming from the nostrils
Stamping at the presence of the enemy
Baring teeth to bite and rend,
All gone with spurs and armor
Sword and mace
Mailed fist, armored face
Now, instead of mail
A veil across the world
The face of which is hidden,
The sky as well
Though blue as ever
Wears a mask,
The Earth itself a steed
Armored, hammered
Into a warhorse
We know a warhorse now
His name is Stonewall,
Part Percheron he is
With heavy hooves, a white blaze,
He is a crowd controller by his size
A gelding gentle as a kitten,
It is the rider who controls him -
Beware the rider
Not the steed
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:19 am
Bingo, Scone
It is nice to talk about morals and ethics, but few people honestly have them, people follow the herd. It is natural. That is why I think philosophy and ethics must be brought back to the forefront of the education system. The herd has to be trained all over again.
When I was in high school I wanted to start a group for nonconformists who were just like me.
On Colbert, there was this scientist worried about estrogen mimics in the
water supply and possible damage to male reproductive equipment. Discussed
in a slightly technical manner. I'm thinking nothing so serious or so in depth would
be allowed on the news shows.
Geithner says financial derivatives blind-sided the government
How can this assclown say this when he works for Goldman Sucks
More Lies and Pablum from Timmie !
P.S. There's a pretty good intro article on behavioral economics, herding, confirmation biases, etc. in Scientific American for July. It's called "The Science of Bubbles and Busts" with a tiny "further reading" biblio at the end. Well worth it, IMO.
Scone,
I understood what your were trying to say, but take your specific and apply it to the whole. That is what I keep coming back to. We aren't looking at a problem here and there that needs to be fixed in order to come out of this. Think Old Testament for example. The Hebrew nation had to continually come back to God and atone for getting off track. Much like the bubbles we go through. This isn't just an economic issue. This is an issue of American character going to excess. Now we bust, come back to God (in this case at least some of our original grounding philosophy) in order to make sense of things. My chain of thought is not too clear I know, but I am just saying we keep trying to fix small parts of a broken whole.
MS (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 9:17 am
... [CA] IOU's are being classified as bondholder's by the SEC so that they will need to take a huge haircut on them when the time comes for them to be redeemed. I do agree that the rate paid on these "notes" are ridiculous......
3.75% double tax free isn't so bad and comparable to 6% CP. What scares me is a tiny little weasel word in the terms; "after." As in after October 2nd. That doesn't mean October 2nd, it just means no sooner than. Could be a Cerberus type roach motel.
On the trail in Rock Creek Park this morning we met a Park Service employee driving a bobcat, leveling and smoothing the trail. He said that government money is starting to come in, and they've been able to hire new people, and also kids for the summer, to do some badly needed upkeep in our local national park. Friendly guy - we were glad to meet him and to hear that our beloved park is gong to get some attention.
scone
are there any poli sci or history majors here...
I feebly raise my hand or
more aptly respond like De Gaulle did when he first met
LBJ, 'what is it that you want to learn from me?'
...
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:35 am
Funny ResistanceIsFeudal,
That statement is the story of my life.
Mine too. The point is that the independent thinker will ALWAYS be the minority. Everyone herds. Millions of years of evolution tells us - as an aggregate - that it is a good way to survive. And for the most part that is true... until it isn't. Then it's time to learn and copy whatever the new prevailing survival strategy is.
This is an issue of American character going to excess. - V
You know, that's where I part company with a lot of the CR folks. I've read a lot of history, some of it against my will because the big, deep pools of facts are pretty darn boring. Without going on and on, I have looked at and analyzed an awful lot of data in my time.. And I have to say, I don't see Americans acting better or worse than any other group of humans. Neither better nor worse. And calls to return to some imagined purity of the past don't work, I think. Every group that tries to do that turns into something pretty nasty, actually. Like the Puritans or Wahabists, early Korea. Trying to "control" people with moral arguments is not the answer.
"Excellent, Pavel. Would you care to share the meaning of the allusions...?"
Kung.Fu.Panda, thanks. This is one of those poems that come up out of some subconscious well. It wrote itself - the mundane part of meI mostly typed.
We do know a horse named Stonewall - he's one of the Park Service police horses.
The image in the second verse is about the veiled power one can feel all around but not quite identify. I think the world is going to see some serious changes over the next few years - count out to ten.
There'll be a powerful illustration with the poem on my main poetry site this week-end. Please see homepage link on Sunday. It changes over then every week-end.
scone,
In terms of good and evil...do the same percentages exist now as any other time in American history...probably so. This goes back to shepherd argument though. Wolves and bad lambs always there but the shepherds kept them away from the flock, at least tried. The barriers aren't there anymore. Where are the shepherds? The herd isn't even getting examples of how to live a 'good' life. Just consumerism. This is where I think we are facing a decline like none other in our history. I am not trying to preach church is the answer, please don't take it that way. I think organized religion is part of the problem at this point, not the solution. But we as a society have to agree that some behaviors are bad for the survival of the whole...and some values are good...where am I wrong here?
rich,
you wrote to mp in previous thread:
If you have not yet seen Frost/Nixon, it's a much better film than I thought it would be. it also is a lot about setting the record straight on major govt. screw-ups. Unfortunately, David Frost was no Errol Morris. And Nixon was no McNamara."
from a stagecraft POV the Frost role was a losing hand from the get go, or more bluntly, the Nixon role was something Langella could sink those old vampire teeth into,
that is, chew up the scenery with gusto.
2) obviously rich you have never read McNamara's auto-bio or even read The Best and the Brightest. at bare minimum, do so before making such comparisons.
Bob McNamara was a boring 'systems man' out of Ann Arbor via Ford. IMO Albert Speer Lite...
Shakespeare could've done a nice piece of work on RMN but Bob would've never made it out of a 3rd Act alive.
ps: Roger Hilsman was my professor at Columbia, under Kennedy he was under secretary of State
where he created the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) which was the major nemesis
to Bob's control of the info pipeline of the war effort...
Scone: Trying to "control" people with moral arguments is not the answer.
Obviously, as a Confucian I disagree and not merely on a moralistic basis.
People are creatures of expectations. The moral code and expectations you convey to them early in their life -- their "life script" -- has an immense effect on people. People are social animals and they both look for and respond to these behavior cues. The place people go wrong is that the life scripts they arrange are not inclusionary. Everyone wants to be a moralizer and teach the people around them not to slack so much, to use an example near to your heart.
The reality is, any kind of life script like this has to focus on marginal individuals, and this is where it is never done right. What is the appropriate script for a substance abuser, misanthrope, involuntary young widower who is alienated, political/social dissident, shiftless wastrel who can't hold a job, that both provides the potential to return to mainstream society and also supports and approves of them, in return for them sticking to that script and making their self destruction or unproductive life an integrated part of society.
If you do this, you get a genuinely dynamic society that can integrate even the people who are trying to fall through the cracks, because falling through the cracks and getting swept back up again is part of the game, not an exit from the game. But, you do not see this because people want to play with the hammer of conformity and punish those who don't make it over the bar as a way of paying themselves a social reward for jumping over the bar themselves.
Re:--- de Gualle-- The French get a bad rap---they stayed out of a stupid war and have the world's best medical system Ketchup on my French fries, s'il vous plait.
I wonder about the conscience of the American citizen, those that I deal with have none. Trully blows me away, Continuely catch them in a lie, even school teachers,
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:50 am
scone,
In terms of good and evil...do the same percentages exist now as any other time in American history...probably so. This goes back to shepherd argument though. Wolves and bad lambs always there but the shepherds kept them away from the flock, at least tried. The barriers aren't there anymore. Where are the shepherds? The herd isn't even getting examples of how to live a 'good' life. Just consumerism. This is where I think we are facing a decline like none other in our history. I am not trying to preach church is the answer, please don't take it that way. I think organized religion is part of the problem at this point, not the solution. But we as a society have to agree that some behaviors are bad for the survival of the whole...and some values are good...where am I wrong here?
We have to start asking these questions of value as a society, and need to stop hiding behind the lame shell of utilitarianism we propped up with a bunch of higher mathematics and called the science of economics.
that would be an interesting thread (I think) - everyone post major if they supported the education complex at some point - I bet there are some eye openers here (both ways - some highly educated dolts and those with less formal education but instead with real wisdom)
The truth today in America is generally what ever the herd does. If you want to scare someone here tell them the truth They won't get your angle. Truth went out with socialized opinion.
But we as a society have to agree that some behaviors are bad for the survival of the whole...and some values are good...where am I wrong here? - V
You're not wrong, but I would argue that the economic wolves have always been around, look at the railroad barons or the old NY bankster crowd in the 19th c. Look at the East India company. Look at the way "American interests" have been protected by knocking over banana republics in this past century. Capitalism has always had its nasty side.
In fact, I do see some improvement. At least the whole world is more or less in agreement that slavery is bad, for example. That's a huge change, and it has taken us centuries to get to this point. That's just one example. And every day the Middle East fails to blow itself up in a nuclear cloud is a pretty good day, as far as I'm concerned. There's a lot of consensus about what's good and bad. Doesn't mean that people actually do act any better than they ever have done, but that's just par for the course.
'She responded to the photo like dozens others: She looked at it and saw no one there to represent her.
"The feeling that you get is that everything that comes out of Washington in the end benefits people who are already well-off," said Apynys. "I don't want to oversimplify it, but on the one hand, your bankers have been well taken care of — and taken care of very swiftly."
In a matter of weeks last fall, Congress approved hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out big financial companies. Now, Apynys says, as she watches lawmakers inch along on health care, she has a sick feeling in her stomach.
"All we can do out here in the hinterlands is just ... ache."
Wouldn't you love a picture of the crowd during any of the fiscal or housing sessions with all the lobbyists identified? I sure would.
I agree. For a myriad of reasons, we have achieved a "tragedy of the commons" writ large. Our prevailing paradigm based on consumerism trumping all and personal or collective sacrifice not even making it on to the list of options -- even as a last resort -- clearly needs a full reboot. Sadly, the very nature of the paradigm pretty well guarantees that said reboot won't happen absent some sort of catastrophic trigger.
Scone
You and I agree more than disagree. I can't remember the exact quote but the poor can't afford morals, the rich can afford not to have them...the only class with morals is the middle. First middle class is shrinking rapidly, second the lines between poor and middle class have been blurred by technology and the gap between the truly wealthy. I would argue that when the middle class has no hope, no direction, everything gets thrown out the window.
The community colleges are being crushed and the state schools are closing off admissions. The state hasn't been paying their tuition bills and the CSU and UC system was letting them float the money until they could catch up but it looks like the campuses have had enough..
For forty years I have had my own business' at some , life was good at others I would have to talk to my banker every morning, maybe all I had was my word, Most always I have found, inorder to survive is to be your own counsel, tell no one your business and I have a son in law who is a damn successfull criminal attorney who goes into fits when he finds out a client has lied to his own attorney.
The real risk will be when they get real weapons they can deliver- right now it is 1949 in the middle east- one side is equipped, but the other is still working on it. Throw in the spectre of an absolute view of religion, and you have an inevitable course.
There is very little organic morality outside of religion in that region. In some ways, whatever was reasonable in Arab culture was destroyed when the riders off the steppes started in on a much more civilized middle east in the 10th century. Ever since then, there has been the viewpoint of the Khan and Tamerlane lurking just under the surface. That attitude has done more to hold them back than all the interference from the West.
Despotism is usually very unenlightened.
Further complicating the situation is that endowment of oil. When that is gone, that part of the world will be truly bereft of any western support, with an unsustainable population right now without external support.
Population pressures alone will dictate that from India to Turkey and Egypt there will be no peace in my time, or two or three generations from now.
In other words, demography and religion will make the place a true misery- as long as the West has provided wealth and a safety valve, they have kept the lid on it.
Nuclear weapons removes the lid.
Further impotent actions against the West met with savage reprisals have led to a built up cultural rage that defies logic.
Most people never have enough. Most people have no concept of how much is enough.
Good example is of a wife who continualy says hubby doesn't earn enough. No matter how hard he works or how much wife has. Then the marriage councelor tells hubby to start buying stuff he can show off so his kids will understand that daddy earns enough.
Everyone having a car, cell phone, music lessons, mall shopping money, bigger house, designer jeans etc etc to death - is not enough.
lawyerliz, I need at least a trillion. See I had a very vivid dream when I was 10. (Yes, I have had lots of dreams) My calling is to build an underground upside down pyramid with dual nuclear reactors connected to an underground watersupply. Plants, animials, regular Noah's Ark situation. Most real dream I have ever had.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 12:08 pm
Scone
You and I agree more than disagree. I can't remember the exact quote but the poor can't afford morals, the rich can afford not to have them...the only class with morals is the middle. First middle class is shrinking rapidly, second the lines between poor and middle class have been blurred by technology and the gap between the truly wealthy. I would argue that when the middle class has no hope, no direction, everything gets thrown out the window.
+1
Again, we need less American Idol and more Working Class Hero
I can't remember the exact quote but the poor can't afford morals, the rich can afford not to have them...the only class with morals is the middle.... I would argue that when the middle class has no hope, no direction, everything gets thrown out the window. - V
You and I actually disagree very clearly, but in a non-obvious way. I do not frame the problem in terms of good versus evil. I'm not interested in a metaphysical analysis of economics. Not that people don't do bad things, of course they do. Madoff did wrong, clearly, and --importantly-- just about everyone agrees about that. But the economic problems we're seeing are, to me, mostly the result of herd-type behaviors that have their roots in our nature as greedy, opportunistic hairless primates. People did the same stuff that everybody else did, because it seemed like a good idea at the time. "Hoocoodanode" thinking. I like to quote Pogo: "we have met the enemy and he is us."
I'll buy you a diamond ring my friend if it makes you feel alright
I'll get you anything my friend if it makes you feel alright
I don't care too much for money, money can't buy me love
I'll give you all I got to give if you say you'll love me too
I may not have a lot to give but what I got I'll give to you
I don't care too much for money, money can't buy me love
Can't buy me love, everybody tells me so
Can't buy me love, no no no, no
Say you don't need no diamond ring and I'll be satisfied
Tell me that you want the kind of thing that money just can't buy
I don't care too much for money, money can't buy me love
Owww
Can't buy me love, everybody tells me so
Can't buy me love, no no no, no
Say you don't need no diamond rings and I'll be satisfied
Tell me that you want those kinds of things that money just can't buy
I don't care too much for money, money can't buy me love
Liz: Nobody has given me an answer yet.
I will start. More than 3 million dollars at today's value
would be too much for me to handle, and would make me
unhappy.
I would go a little higher than that. About 5m, I would want to shower about 2-3m on my peeps, get them hooked up with houses, educations, etc. I have lots of poor friends I'd like to help become comfortable.
Then a couple million to walk around with cash in my pocket while I cause trouble.
Seriously, on a personal level, my wife and I have considered between 15-25 million enough to retire and invest and have a big family, raise Old English Sheepdogs...etc...but that was before this current economic situation. Now, my definition of wealth is not determined by dollars or bars of gold. Land, house, and food and water source. Paid for of course.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 12:16 pm
But the economic problems we're seeing are, to me, mostly the result of herd-type behaviors that have their roots in our nature as greedy, opportunistic hairless primates. People did the same stuff that everybody else did, because it seemed like a good idea at the time. "Hoocoodanode" thinking. I like to quote Pogo: "we have met the enemy and he is us."
I tend to agree, it is primarily an evolutionary limitation, and in effect we have hit the wall. That can't be changed on a collective level, it must begin in the individual, and cultural institutions need to recognize and support those efforts. Apes also don't deal well with billions of dollars, it is a number which we are evolutionarily and thus emotionally unprepared to deal with in an appropriate manner.
I could easily spend $3 racing in one year. So the amount would easily be $100M. Like drugs alcohol I have no clue where my breaking point would be but now with life's experience I would do the best now.
When tax rates were much hire, there was less need to fear the super rich. Bring back those higher rates. I say that after the pig has killed the thread--and out of context, this thought would get people here very ill.
I would argue that when the middle class has no hope, no direction, everything gets thrown out the window. - V
That's another thing. I don't see the present situation as a loss of all hope, more like a forced transformation into something quite different. One thing this recession has pointed up very clearly-- we can't go on by building more and more factories and selling each other more and better stuff. The whole basis of the Industrial Revolution was, to quicken production to fill a huge need for stuff. But at this point, most people around the globe who have any money at all are up to their necks in stuff and the factories that build the stuff are getting more efficient, more automated. In 50 years, how many people will still be needed to work in factories?
It's like the transition from farming to factory, from country to city, 150 years ago. Except now, we have over 6 billion people. So how are they going to be employed, once the factories and farms are more or less completely automated, which will probably happen in my lifetime? This is the big issue, as far as I'm concerned. I'm kind of excited to see how people will adapt, and I'm certain it won't be all bad. Although I have no data to support this view.
I'm pretty sure that no amount of money would actively make me unhappy. I don't tie my sense of well-being to my balance sheet now, so I can't see changing that outlook simply because I had ready access to even several hundred million dollars.
Nervous - One of my lottery dreams is to do that. Carry a wad of $100 and just drop them everywhere I go. There's nothing like the thrill of finding money.
I will say if you retire (couple) at 50 you should have at least $3 mill live simple and have half invested in real income producing assets like real estate. It is truly a lot more cost then most anticipate.
Liz,
I agree that too much money can make one unhappy.
69 million would make me one happy HomeGnome though.
What would make me unhappy would be all the folks looking for handouts...
I have plenty of philanthropic ideas...
Sorry Liz, hope I am not driving you crazy. My 18month old is practicing for Chipendales striping off his diaper while wearing a Fireman's hat...and my four year old thought he would practice his alphabet on his toybox with a ballpoint pen. My concentration is diverted. I think I can acquire what I need to meet my dystopian paranoia of the future with $500,000. Over that, and I would worry and feel like a target. Low profile is the wave of the future.
scone, I won't argue with you. I have always been a glass all the way empty person. I hope your 'future' comes true.
What! A park in DC! A nice federal employee!!! Careful, you might confuse some of the people who believe Washington is just a swamp full of timeservers, preverts and politicians.....
(I miss my home town sometimes)
Too much is any amount that all my friends, family etc would think that due to my good fortune - I should hand out gobs of money to them. Having enough is great, too much and I think I would lose some friends. Or my eonugh then becomes way more than "I" need.
Ever crash a race car hard? A friend did this weekend and he will be ok Now he can answer if he will drive again. Now he has passed the point of guessing. There is no answer unless you experience it.
I'm not sure how much would be enough to make me unhappy, Liz. I think with time passing, I'd see more clearly - either fresh opportunities or unexpected complications.
The thing is, it can do some very worthy things which don't dilute or diminish a person. There are children's hospitals and burn units out there not getting what they need, but getting to know how charities operate is a bit of a minefield, I find. For myself, however, much over two million would just become an annoyance here. Were I to move to Tuscany or to Vienna, I might raise that a little. I suppose country life in the Shenandoah would require quite a bit more.
BA Mus, then Vienna Conservatory.
Been trying to make my way through the classics of Western Lit - some, like Proust, can take a while to read. They keep opening out new possibilities in life, and seem to have changed me a great deal, over time.
Well, it won't be my future, I'll be dead. When all the Baby Boomers are gone, and the Chinese have all the plumbing and sewing machines and cars they want, and India is completely "modern," and even the poor countries of Africa have been "developed," then what is left? What is left for capitalism to achieve?
I would argue, the capitalism we know and love/hate has almost run it's course, and will necessarily evolve into something else. And I don't think it's back to the Middle Ages. I'm actually very excited to be living now. Although statistically, of course, I had a better chance of being born in this era than any other.
Mrs. Crash and I are expecting our first kid in February. Oddly, as I consider that pending milestone and all that comes with it, I can actually come up with a number. I refuse to raise a child whose outlook on life is one in which the default assumption is that everything that life requires is delivered on a silver platter without a need for planning, saving, or striving toward something. So with that in mind, my "unhappy" number might actually fall somewhere in the low single digit millions. Anything above that might give me a sense of comfort and lack of fiscal caution that I'd be loathe to pass on to a mini-me whose adult world is likely to be one in which a solid work ethic, refusal to think that one is entitled to anything, and a sense of fiscal risk aversion will be essential traits.
Anytthing above $10mm is waaay more than enough, interest alone is enough to live the champagne life on a beer budget without having to lift a finger beyond rolling over muni bonds, even after accounting for future value of money. Beyond accounting for FVM, I try to squander every nickel I have every 5 years.
Nervous Rex: If you can keep your sense of humor and generosity a few million dollars can be liberating and fun.
Otherwise, just liberating I suppose.
I dunno how liberating it is, really. I have had several friends strike it rich (by which I mean, made it to multi-milionaire). One lost most of it making stupid decisions, one turned into a gnome-like servant of the cashpile.
I know watching the Great Deleveraging take place would have been A LOT LESS FUN if I hadn't had about 200 bucks in the bank at the time.
I have seen a lot of people ruined by money. What it did to them, and what they did for it. Not even millions, which is the sad part. I have a friend you literally cannot trust with 20 dollars. I have seen people tear their marriages apart for a few tens of gs in domestic furnishings. I think it's what you bring to the situation. Even a tiny amount of money can be the worst thing that ever happened to you if you have bad character. Even managing a couple of million can be a full-time job if you want to keep it, and you'll always live in threat of losing it.
I've read the Volsungasaga. I know all about the dangers of becoming your own dragon. Note my use for most of it was giving it away. =)
Assume Crash Position,
Congrats...lower your expectations. I went in with high ones too. The first few years just try to get enough sleep. Fatigue is a problem. Best intentions don't cut it with kids. They are a reflection of your actions, not your words or thoughts. They are a blessing though. I honestly didn't know myself before my first child even with all my self-actualization exercises. One more thing, cliche, but take the time, it goes so fast, even being a stay at home dad, the time is flying.
Von- Thanks. I pretty well assumed that part about them being a reflection of your actions, not your words or thoughts. And that's why I revised my original answer. Even with the best intentions, access to unlimited funds changes one's way of interacting with the world in a way that I'm sure I wouldn't want to pass on.
"Even managing a couple of million can be a full-time job if you want to keep it, and you'll always live in threat of losing it."
That is why the term early retirement is not what many think. Still have an office that looks like a small corporation at work. Not a job but certainly not work free.
That is why the term early retirement is not what many think. - LBD
I did it, and I'm getting bored. The paperwork is not interesting, either. Maybe full-time retirement is not 'rock all night, sleep all day' as I was led to believe...
Assume Crash Positions,
Your quote is pretty much verbatim what I said going in on my first, that is why I responded. Knowing you are a mirror doesn't prepare you for the reality. For example, flat tire, 103, almost brought the car down on me, and I lost my temper. Now my four year old has asked everyone and their mother what motherf*cker means...And I also thought I didn't throw that many temper tantrums as an adult, but my kids prove me wrong everyday. Hard to get mad when you see your own mannerisms reflected right back. But honestly, sleep is key during the first few months. Our first was not an easy sleeper...it was hell. Thankfully, the second sleeps like an angel.
Health forced mine, eight years now and I wish I could start a business and go back racing. Can't do it. Winter is the worst time of boredom. Time or money are two things that don't seem to go together for most of us. The other is your friends are at work and can't come out to play!
From my earlier post:
California has also issued 91,000 IOUs totalling $354 million as of late Wednesday.
And they 'delayed' a 4 Billion dollar payment to their education system.
1 million is plenty
2 mill would allow me to fund item 4 below
3 mill would be too much but maybe I'd start a winery where all workers owned a share of the business (think american apparel but for agriculture).
1) buy acreage with cash and build a modest, energy efficient home using straw bale or shipping containers. Build extra housing for friends and family if needed.
2) finish school as either a doctor or architect
3) start an educational endowment
4) start a non-profit business that develops housing and community run farms in urban areas - think of it as a non-religious version of habitat for humanity crossed with the slow food movement that focuses on urban vs suburban or rural development.
Are the humble willing to live off only a couple of millions? The country doesn't have that kind of capital--how about wishing for a secure job with a decent salary? That could be the new impossible dream.
$5m after taxes and you would never see or hear of me again.....ever. Unless you travel in mid-baja ....... The key to having money (and keeping it) is to not make others aware of it. It would be so easy to just disappear into Mexico with that amount and no one would ever know if you lived correctly. I've seen people with many millions less go into mexico and become targets simply because they got careless and allowed others to see what you had.
BTW the one group of people where too much money is dangerous is/are professional athletes.....
HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:02 am
From my earlier post:
California has also issued 91,000 IOUs totalling $354 million as of late Wednesday.
And they 'delayed' a 4 Billion dollar payment to their education system.
When do the riots start?
and where?
If the State workers start job actions in response to the cutbacks the public reaction will undoubtably shift the balance in Sacramento. That runs the risk of getting out of control real fast. I don't see that yet but that's how it would start.
that has been my dream since I was a teenager. Came from a poor working class family in rural OC. I saw first hand how being cut out of owning a stake, however small, in the community that you worked affected everything in your life.
HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:13 am
Something like this, Dawg?
Not exactly. The SEIU is a radical labor organization feeling their own mortality. They are only targeting the governor and "Republicans" because they incorrectly think they still own the Democrats. This is all bluster and negotiating through the press.
How about a good support system from dear old mom and dad. Have been trying to set up a foundation for kids and it will fry your brain, especialy at our age, Maybe the money our government piss's away in thirty minutes would be enought for me.
I couldn't give an exact number but 100 million is definitely over. At some point you have to worry about becoming a target. DH would want to buy a mountain in New Mexico or Arizona and put a telescope on it. I'd want to buy a place with good land, water and climate and split my time between the garden and the library.
I'm almost as concerned about the denominator as the numerator. 25% fewer public companies since Sarbanes-Oxley was passed in 2002. And the decline is accelerating.
The problem, according to an SEC insider, is that the SEC has become beholden to the accounting lobby, which sees SarbOx as the mother lode.
Creates an interesting form of adverse selection: small companies that don't need access to capital markets (that is, the best, most profitable companies) simply go private to save money on compliance. What's left are the dregs of the small cap world.
Until/unless fixed, US small caps will simply list in London. Little companies grow up to be big companies, still listed in London. Sure Wall Street must care about self-preservation.
OT, but still relevant
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Unemployment Claims: How Bad are the "Real" Numbers?
Pigged: and kinda on topic since this is an SEC thread:
Anyone discussed the California IOU's being "securities" yet?
Denninger has something on it right now, but I was hoping to get some opinions from the CR folks.
No doubt about it!
I have had substantial doubt for quite a while, but hey, I have been on CR for three years.
The real fun part is going to be when we finally get a real turn upward.
False starts for now.
I can hardly wait to see how the next stimulus plays out. This one sure hasn't had enough oomph, as state and local governments continue to layoff.
Government is supposed to lean against the trend, not follow it.
Someday this war's gonna end...
substantial doubt equals substantial debt
Maybe the government needs to increase transfers.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_jbs0fnMs1sc/SkTuxm9xkcI/AAAAAAAAAI8/2dIWx0SYvN4/s1600-h/YoY_Delta_Pers_Inc_Less_Govt_Soc_Ben.PNG
(from energyecon's blog)
"Substantial Doubt" is more cheerful than certainty,so it qualifies as a green shoot,right?
I have a lot a doubt about the meaning of this. Substantial doubt? What does that mean?
ot
alt E... (not alt A) alternative energy !
from KPLU news
(national public radio affiliate)
Tom Banse reporting, (2009-07-10)
" A newly-formed company has announced plans to build a huge solar power project in central Washington. If the plans come to fruition, it would be by far the largest solar electric plant anywhere in the Northwest... and perhaps the country. KPLU's Tom Banse reports. The developer's ambitious construction schedule calls for the solar park to be operational as early as 2011.
snip
The start up goes by the name Teanaway Solar Reserve LLC. The firm proposes to install more than 400-hundred thousand solar panels on a parcel of previously logged private timberland near the central Washington town of Cle Elum. Managing director Howard Trott says yes, it is sunny enough to justify a utility scale solar park.
snip
Trott says Washington voters created a market for higher priced clean energy when they passed a citizens initiative a few years back. It requires utilities to add renewable power to their generating portfolios.
snip
With full sun, the facility could generate enough electricity to power 45-thousand households.
corporations, with voter and taxpayer support, are making a major investment in solar and wind power in the PNW
Is "substantial doubt" 10k-ese for "grave danger"?
"Substantial doubt" = definitely cooking the books, as opposed to the normal cooking books.
Mel --
LBD is a tool. You speak in the east, he answers in the west.
"Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:03 am
I said it earlier, but Christmas this year will be telling. I predict many family purchases and less individual presents. Homemade gifts will be up."
My wife mixed cherries and Captain Morgan in canning jars and will be passing them out for the holidays.
Get the relatives drunk and happy.
I believe CR is referring to a qualification given by a firm's accountants that there is substantial doubt whether the firm can continue as a going concern.
albrt (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:26 am
I believe CR is referring to a qualification given by a firm's accountants that there is substantial doubt whether the firm can continue as a going concern.
Ow. That'll leave a mark.
So how does this square with the Wright Model B predictions ?
From TFA:
Although substantial doubt could occur anywhere in the filing (because my program searches the entire document) the samples I've eyeballed show it in the Going Concern section of the Basis of Presentation Note (this will get easier as XBRL rolls out). Anyway, it's not what most companies want to say anywhere in a report.
CR,
I've never heard of this metric before. Very interesting.
Reading the link, most of the "substantial doubts" are related to "going concern" doubts. Not a good sign.
just quickly glossed over comments from White House's Plan C...
I thought we had enough sharpies here to toss in
Plan 9 from Outer Space (directed by Ed Wood)
we're just now seeing this man's genius, it's probably
got a hell of a better chance at success!
btw, an excellent Johnny Depp performance in the movie of
the same name....
Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering. I sense much fear in you.
--bh
"Note how the combined claims is twice as bad as the recessions is 1975 and 1982. Also note how the reported headline numbers were understated in the last recession. This is how manipulated the reporting is."
....it's about time........
".....the current number receiving unemployment benefits is 9.4 million." .....(not 6.8 mil)
"Also note that boomers are heading into retirement now.......and looking for jobs,.....competing against their kids and grandkids for jobs."
Why aren't we hearing this slant from the BLS?
“Doubt is uncomfortable, certainty is ridiculous.” - Voltaire
“We demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty!” - Douglas Adams
One of my favorite D. Adams quotes. Another lost art . Satire
mock turtle (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 10:28 am
* reply
* Ignore user
most of us here look for cause and effect and try to put our finger on the reasons-why for the financial crisis
MBS, CDS, ratings agencies bought by financiers, the poor buying mcmansions, low interest rates at the fed, a breakdown in regulation, no doc loans etc etc
but is there not a root cause the hides underneath?
the conventional wisdom is that the problems on Wall Street caused the economic problems. I think they have it exactly wrong. It is the economic problems of the average person that has caused the problems on Wall Street. If median wages in the last 8 years had gone up by 2% instead of being flat- all of a sudden housing doesn't look so expensive and perhaps a lot more people would be in a position to make their mortgage payment.
All this effort on helping the banks is the equivalent of prescribing asprin for the head ache rather than dealign with the tumor that is causing the headache. Nothing that this administration has done is attempting to change the economic trajectory that got us here. While I have little sympathy for those who have over extended themselves I do think that we have to acknowledge that the stagnation in wages at least contributed to the problem.
Anyone have anymore info on the California IOUs being "securities"?
Why aren't we hearing this slant from the BLS?
BSR,
Because it doesn't fit with the agenda of the Ministry of Propaganda. Just look at the built in bias towards eCONomists.
Roubini is "Dr. Doom". Are any of the the wall st. sell side eCONomists labeled "Dr. Polyanna" or "Dr. Always wrong"?
Another lost art . Satire
You must not have found Jon Stewart.
I posted this link of links in the last thread.
Exurban Nation: Daily California Watch
thanks Dawg, I was at the dentist this am so I missed it.
HomeGnome,
Honestly I am afraid to look for any more info. I had a 'Don't Look Ethel' moment when the story broke. Then the growing realization that you can really sell empty promises and make a commission on it. Hell, maybe it is the beginning of the let's tax the air you breath strategy to solve global warming.
Satire has been nationalized,read any white house press release.
Why do the heretics not want to go along with the "one true Religion"
OT / 10 hours ago I posted this video mash-up of me and my security detail in training at the firing range
YouTube - Duke & Dau Firing the Big Caliber Big Guns during Cambodian Weapons Training
btw, mad as hell that both CNBC & Bloomie's didn't show coverage of Geither... I was taping to use for a mash-up...
here is a comment posted:
I am disturbed by how disturbed you are. How did you become this way? I'm sure that you might have an NYT bestseller on your hands.
Way more sordid than the fake Patrick Bateman epistle."
HomeGnome - I haven't read anything substantial regarding the IOUs as securities yet.
But this now means that it should act like a bond, no?
The IOUs should now have a rating, and registration. Also, the contractors and taxpayers have never agreed to be paid in thes securities so that should have some interesting implications.
I agree that the current yield is WAY too low for an entitiy that is effectively insolvent.
Luci,which "one true Religion"?
"Let's tax the air you breath"
Christ, Vonbek. Don't give the robber barons any ideas.
HomeGnome (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 10:44 am
"Let's tax the air you breath"
Christ, Vonbek. Don't give the robber barons any ideas.
Already done. Carbon footprint.
So this guy wrote a program that searches for certain key words that he thinks of as expressing "substantial doubt." You know, I'd have to see the program before I became a believer. Data mining is fraught with issues. Not to mention the problems with herding behavior and "tall poppy syndrome." When you're doing an SEC doc, it's so much easier to make the same noises as everyone else in the herd, whether the current fashion is for happy talk or doom. So, I'm not yet comfy with this from a stat analysis POV.
Jon is okay. Must admit I don't watch the tube anymore. Catch a video online sometimes, he can be funny, but I prefer subtlety to over-the-top.
I'm very late to the party but...
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 9:26 am
I believe the period we are entering is in many ways be analogous to the Middle Ages in Europe. What happens when the King, because of bad policy decisions, becomes too weak to project his power throughout the kingdom? The other nobles become restive and begin to gather power onto themselves. What happens when these regional nobles (States) because of their own failures can no longer maintain the Kings peace for him?
Feudalism.
If a company issues an SEC filing with a "substantial doubt" statement, that is a giant flashing SELL signal. It'd be interesting to see a historical analysis showing what the correlation between these filings and eventual bankruptcy.
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:24 am
Mel --
LBD is a tool. You speak in the east, he answers in the west."
Tools must be answered--knocked down at every opportunity. I hate smugness --also, many here seem to have simplistic "cures" for complicated, long festering, problems. Some that decry over-consumption are surely guilty of it themselves. A major problem with blogs is the difficulty of discerning who's bullshitting whom.
Why don't TPTB institute a "birth pollution tax".
I mean people output CO2 as a matter of respiration and are therefore polluters...
Unless of course, Cap and Trade won't do anything to reduce pollution.
Feudalism-- Ah! Now we see the violence inherent in the system!
Help! Help! I’m being repressed!
It's Friday, have a chuckle with Python.
Feudalism.
Only one problem with that. A small group of men do not have a monopoly on superior firepower.
No riding at serfs in the field armed with sticks this time around.
dupe
"many here seem to have simplistic "cures" for complicated, long festering, problems"
Kind of a smug statement there, Mel...
IMO.
HomeGnome (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 10:47 am
Why don't TPTB institute a "birth pollution tax".
I mean people output CO2 as a matter of respiration and are therefore polluters...
Unless of course, Cap and Trade won't do anything to reduce pollution.
Correct. Again, that's the carbon footprint. (Carbon footprint) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Rest assured that eventually this WILL be taxed. Cap and Trade is trying to re-start the FIRE and further undermining our industrial base.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
I wrote an entire post elsewhere based on your quote. That was good.
Just wondering, are there any actual history or even poli sci majors here?
I need the Brave Sir Robin song now.
I don't get it.
Substantial Doubt about what ? about their susvival or what ? What are they implying here?
Resistance, I have no doubt that TPTB will end up taxing any and everything.
Why not tax churches?
MOST of them pay no heed to the separation of church and state and some actively advocate a political position.
Dual major, PolySci and History. Minor in philosophy. Should have majored in Philosophy at this point.
Smug is "knowing" solutions---I prefer to be described as cynical.
Vonbek777,
Blessed are the cheese makers.
Alright, CynicalMel.
What would the stats look like if a statement of "substantial doubt" had to be an answered question submitted with every individual taxpayer's return?
So many, who are home owners, are underwater, and with a deflationary economic environment likely to be with us for some time, a lot of job holders have to face the future with smaller incomes.
My wild speculation that the number who won't remain solvent or liquid, and either default or go bankrupt will continue to grow in cliff climbing fashion.
Lloyd Christmas will make a fine California Treasurer - he understands the IOU system well
YouTube - Dumb & Dumber -- Empty Suitcase of Money
Could be called an inside house Think Tank. Rethink, rethink rethink. Do I cut my losses and run or stay and fight hoping an upsurge is just around the corner, yeh.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 10:52 am
ResistanceIsFeudal,
I wrote an entire post elsewhere based on your quote. That was good.
Excellent, and thank you. Do you have a link handy? Posts get lost so easily in this tumultuous sea of electrons.
Angry Saver,
"Are there any women here today?"
my apologies if this have been posted already, but more political capture today:
DNC fundraiser tapped as ambassador to Germany
15 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Obama plans to nominate Philip Murphy, a former finance chairman for the Democratic National Committee, to be ambassador to Germany, the White House announced Thursday.
The nomination continues a pattern of naming high-profile fundraisers and contributors to Democratic politics to choice ambassador posts, a long-standing political tradition.
Murphy once served as head of financial firm Goldman Sachs' Frankfurt office, which had oversight responsibility for Germany, Switzerland, Austria and the then-emerging nations of Central Europe. Murphy held a number of executive positions at Goldman Sachs and was a senior director from 2003 until his retirement in 2006.
Excellent, and thank you. Do you have a link handy? Posts get lost so easily in this tumultuous sea of electrons.
American Apocalypse
Under "What Model?"
BS polsci @ Arizona state because I was too lazy to get a liberal arts degree(and I wanted a bit more latitude in course selection)
"Are there any women here today?"
Vonbek777,
Do mean you like - strange women lying in ponds.....
scone,
I earned a BA in History; graduated in 1991 right at the depth of the Saddam recession.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 10:50 am
Feudalism.
Only one problem with that. A small group of men do not have a monopoly on superior firepower.
No riding at serfs in the field armed with sticks this time around.
No, but a small group of men do have an effective monopoly on a financial superweapon.
Scone,
No, but I watch the History Channel a couple times a year.
scone,
Why get a history degree, it'll just repeat later?!
(Note: inspired by my teenage son)
Angry Saver,
Why do you think that she is a witch?
Well, she turned me into a newt.
A newt?
Well, I got better.
So this guy wrote a program that searches for certain key words [...] I'd have to see the program before I became a believer.
Pretty simple grep, no interpretation required. I think you're underestimating the extent to which those words have a very specific CYA meaning. No one wants to use them, they do it to avoid getting the pants sued off of them for misrepresentation.
When you're doing an SEC doc, it's so much easier to make the same noises as everyone else in the herd
This is like saying that people file for unemployment because it's the hip new thing to do these days.
I'd love to see this graph with a single line: 'substantial doubt filings as a percentage of total filings'. Because as it stands the impact is sort of muted - you need to look at it twice to realize that hey, ok, the red line is lower than it was on previous occasions but waitaminit... why did it just cross the blue line...
Vonbek777,
What else floats (in a sea of liquidity)?
Very small rocks. Pebbles!
Let the ScrewJob continue!
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department allowed 11 smaller banks to repurchase stock warrants at only 66 percent of their market value, passing up about $10 million of taxpayer profits from government bailouts, a U.S. watchdog panel said on Friday.
In a new monthly report, the Congressional Oversight Panel said the government could lose $2.7 billion if it accepts similar valuation levels on warrants repurchased by remaining banks that received government capital injections.
Mel
You guys are to funny. Leading with your heart is almost always a sure sign of failure. None of these social programs for decades have cured nothing but have grown. Now tell me I am wrong.LOL!
Angry Saver,
You should not have got me started. Now I have "Always Look at the Bright Side of Life" going through my head. Put some Father Ted quotes in there too, and I will be officially dsyfunctional for the rest of the day.
Maybe we should combine some of these measures: consumer confidence, substantial doubt of companies about forecasts, and the inverse of CNBC pundit talk, into a mega-measure of things.
)
But it is much easier to read CR and KNOW that things stink.
I thought it was the whole dairy industry?
Unfortunately today..
Financialism == "One True Religion"
[Angelic music plays... ]
King Arthur: The Lady of the Lake, her arm clad in the purest shimmering samite held aloft Excalibur from the bosom of the water, signifying by divine providence that I, Arthur, was to carry Excalibur. THAT is why I am your king.
Dennis: [interrupting] Listen, strange women lyin' in ponds distributin' swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
replace king with Treasury Secretary....
We can refer to any harebrained scheme as a "Farcical Aquatic Ceremony."
TARP is a Farcical Aquatic Ceremony. There.
BTW, how was the Bloomberg Bearfest yesterday?
Cool! Go history, poli sci, philosophy. The weird thing is, I've actually used the stuff they taught me. Especially skepticism.
P.S. Idle curiosity dept. Who was that Luci person-- did someone make an OT religious remark?
corporations, with voter and taxpayer support, are making a major investment in solar and wind power in the PNW
There's a substantial rain shadow in Washington, near the town of Sequim. I was wondering when the alternative energy folks would figure that out. People laugh because they think that washington is constantly shrouded in clouds and rain, but sequim's dry desert skies are clear almost all of the time.
OT, but substantial doubt about free movement of capital:
Obama Targeting Overseas Assets
"...pending legislation declares "anybody who sends money to a ‘tax haven country' will be presumed to be committing tax fraud," Rubinstein says. "The burden will be on the taxpayer to prove he didn't commit tax fraud. The judge, jury and prosecutor will be the IRS.""
[tinfoil]Capital controls coming next?[/tinfoil]
BTW, how was the Bloomberg Bearfest yesterday?
Nice, but you should see the woods now. It'll take years to clean that mess up.
Enjoy Karl Denninger and CNBC (video).
Follow-Up To Dennis Kneale And CNBC - The Market Ticker
"Why don't TPTB institute a "birth pollution tax"....
,,,,and of course smokers will be taxed for fouling my air.......oh, and pot smokers too........that might be ironic - CA OKs pot use and then the FedGov taxes its use for being "yucky".
Well, you know BSR, that Belle and Milkshake are killing the earth with their methane output.
//snark off//
The joke in my poly-sci department was that we were all preparing for our real career of being a taxi driver.
from a past thread
psychodave
omg that is great,so we finally got the spanish american war paid of,wow.thanks for answering.
i feel like a red-headed step child, we are all red-headed step children. can we do a recall on the house of purple.both houses, and ask our president if he is president of the federal reserve bank of the united states. or president of the usa.
everything is substantial doubt.
This is like saying that people file for unemployment because it's the hip new thing to do these days. - bbl
Not really, I'm saying there is "herding behavior" going on at all times, no matter what the circumstances. This implies the "herding language" has less real meaning than might otherwise be the case. If everyone is covering his ass by making the same sort of "substantial doubt" noises, it's harder to tell which ones are really doubtful, and which are just following the herd. The people writing the filing documents likely have no downside risk in expressing "substantial doubt," whereas sticking your neck out seems more risky. It's human nature-- CYA.
I would call this failure!
Fed program backs $12B in consumer loans in July
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A government program intended to spark lending to consumers and small businesses at cheaper rates supported nine deals worth a total of roughly $12 billion this month, down about 27 percent from June's total.
Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that investors requested $5.4 billion worth of loans in July as part of the program to boost consumer lending. The Federal Reserve on Friday said the money supports nine asset-backed securities deals worth $12 billion.
In mid-June, investors passed on their first chance to buy newly issued securities backed by commercial real estate loans when that part of the TALF program was rolled out. It is designed to boost the availability of commercial real estate loans, help prevent defaults and facilitate the sale of distressed properties.
The Fed monthly report also showed that the Fed lost $5.248 billion in the first quarter on the securities it acquired with last year's bailouts of Bear Stearns and insurer American International Group Inc. The figure was revised slightly from $5.254 billion reported last month.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Just to help out with VB77's Python quote-fest:
The whole banking sector continues to remind me of the "bring out yer dead" scene from Holy Grail.
"I feel happy. I feel happy."
While I generally agree with your observation on herd behavior, there are grades of CYA lingo, and when the equity markets are ultimately a confidence game that language is not used in the smae manner IMNSHO...
IT-
what the whole IOU's as securities thing means to me is that the holder's of said IOU's are being classified as bondholder's by the SEC so that they will need to take a huge haircut on them when the time comes for them to be redeemed. I do agree that the rate paid on these "notes" are ridiculous.......it may be that when the holder's sue, en masse, they will feel better about only losing the small amount of interest (+ actual value) and be forced to eat it ala GM (and many other force-fed filings).
In any case..there is a reason that a secondary market sprang up for these and the going rate is something like .50-.60 of face. Tells you something....
Ciao
MS
Bingo, Scone
It is nice to talk about morals and ethics, but few people honestly have them, people follow the herd. It is natural. That is why I think philosophy and ethics must be brought back to the forefront of the education system. The herd has to be trained all over again.
And
"But I'm not dead yet"
"...there are grades of CYA lingo, and when the equity markets are ultimately a confidence game that language is not used in the smae manner IMNSHO..." - e
Agreed! And that's sort of my point-- on it's face, at least, a simple grep wouldn't really model that very well. But like I said, I'd be willing to consider it if I saw the methodology in detail. That's always the thing, after all, look at the fact-gathering methodology before you even examine the purported facts on offer.
Today's Chart of the Day is the DJ Equity REIT index.
Substantial doubt about a recovery soon...
ken
went off came back got that you were offline something devil.dont understand
got on thur history.
dont know if means anything or but...
Gaby, just got the same thing here...
Anyone discussed the California IOU's being "securities" yet?
Bond Girl pegged this almost instantly, nearly a week ago, IIRC.
Completely off-topic, but things are getting fun locally - one of our local development FIRE magnates has flown the coop, purportedly after embezzling a bunch of funds from the HOA. He was in not one, but two of these upscale golfing developments. Schadenfreude is my middle name.
That's not a very good graph. By using two different scales it distorts the apparent ratio. Since they're both measuring a quantity of filings, you should only need one scale. Or maybe measure the substantial doubt filings as a percentage of the total.
That said, it is amazing that the number of substantial doubt filings has risen so little in a year of such turmoil. I guess the 2000-2001 numbers are pretty anomalous because of all the newly minted dot-coms dying quick deaths.
Of course honor may have gone out the door when dueling was outlawed. My dad always said this country started going to hell when cavemen couldn't whack the jerks upside the head anymore for being twits.
The herd has to be trained all over again. - V
I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing. I'm thinking of "herding behavior" in a specific "behavioral economics" POV/context, which is my big thing at the moment. Of course, I just picked up the phrase recently, and it's not like I'm a deep expert or anything, but it fits in with the skeptical/empirical stuff I've been ruminating about. Here's a wiki on this that leads to a bunch of interesting articles:
Herd behavior - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"No riding at serfs in the field armed with sticks this time around."
BEWARE THE RIDER
See the great warhorse
There are none any more,
Champing at the bit
Steaming from the nostrils
Stamping at the presence of the enemy
Baring teeth to bite and rend,
All gone with spurs and armor
Sword and mace
Mailed fist, armored face
Now, instead of mail
A veil across the world
The face of which is hidden,
The sky as well
Though blue as ever
Wears a mask,
The Earth itself a steed
Armored, hammered
Into a warhorse
We know a warhorse now
His name is Stonewall,
Part Percheron he is
With heavy hooves, a white blaze,
He is a crowd controller by his size
A gelding gentle as a kitten,
It is the rider who controls him -
Beware the rider
Not the steed
Pavel
July 9, 2009
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:19 am
Bingo, Scone
It is nice to talk about morals and ethics, but few people honestly have them, people follow the herd. It is natural. That is why I think philosophy and ethics must be brought back to the forefront of the education system. The herd has to be trained all over again.
When I was in high school I wanted to start a group for nonconformists who were just like me.
I do disagree. Satire is alive and well.
On Colbert, there was this scientist worried about estrogen mimics in the
water supply and possible damage to male reproductive equipment. Discussed
in a slightly technical manner. I'm thinking nothing so serious or so in depth would
be allowed on the news shows.
Geithner says financial derivatives blind-sided the government
How can this assclown say this when he works for Goldman Sucks
More Lies and Pablum from Timmie !
Nice Pavel.
People Who Hate People Party.
YouTube - Bill Hicks - People Who Hate People
@ Vonbek
P.S. There's a pretty good intro article on behavioral economics, herding, confirmation biases, etc. in Scientific American for July. It's called "The Science of Bubbles and Busts" with a tiny "further reading" biblio at the end. Well worth it, IMO.
Most people wouldn't know an ethical question if it bit them on the tush.
For most people, even those theoretically religious the mantra is:
Money is good. More money is better. More is better still.
Robbing 7-11s or banks for it is clearly bad, but nearly anything else
you do for it is ok.
I have some clients who have been forced to think about things by the
financial disaster who are beginning to have slightly more nuanced
thoughts.
Scone,
I understood what your were trying to say, but take your specific and apply it to the whole. That is what I keep coming back to. We aren't looking at a problem here and there that needs to be fixed in order to come out of this. Think Old Testament for example. The Hebrew nation had to continually come back to God and atone for getting off track. Much like the bubbles we go through. This isn't just an economic issue. This is an issue of American character going to excess. Now we bust, come back to God (in this case at least some of our original grounding philosophy) in order to make sense of things. My chain of thought is not too clear I know, but I am just saying we keep trying to fix small parts of a broken whole.
Excellent, Pavel. Would you care to share the meaning of the allusions...?
MS (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 9:17 am
... [CA] IOU's are being classified as bondholder's by the SEC so that they will need to take a huge haircut on them when the time comes for them to be redeemed. I do agree that the rate paid on these "notes" are ridiculous......
3.75% double tax free isn't so bad and comparable to 6% CP. What scares me is a tiny little weasel word in the terms; "after." As in after October 2nd. That doesn't mean October 2nd, it just means no sooner than. Could be a Cerberus type roach motel.
Funny ResistanceIsFeudal,
That statement is the story of my life.
"Nice Pavel."
Thanks, Nova.
On the trail in Rock Creek Park this morning we met a Park Service employee driving a bobcat, leveling and smoothing the trail. He said that government money is starting to come in, and they've been able to hire new people, and also kids for the summer, to do some badly needed upkeep in our local national park. Friendly guy - we were glad to meet him and to hear that our beloved park is gong to get some attention.
scone
are there any poli sci or history majors here...
I feebly raise my hand or
more aptly respond like De Gaulle did when he first met
LBJ, 'what is it that you want to learn from me?'
...
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:35 am
Funny ResistanceIsFeudal,
That statement is the story of my life.
Mine too. The point is that the independent thinker will ALWAYS be the minority. Everyone herds. Millions of years of evolution tells us - as an aggregate - that it is a good way to survive. And for the most part that is true... until it isn't. Then it's time to learn and copy whatever the new prevailing survival strategy is.
Pavel,
Good. That is really a city park rather than a national park. Good jobs for kids also. I drove a bush hog in a park for a summer once.
OK, everyone step over to the mic for a synchronized Claude Rains impression:
Banks buying back TARP warrants at discount: panel - MarketWatch
This is an issue of American character going to excess. - V
You know, that's where I part company with a lot of the CR folks. I've read a lot of history, some of it against my will because the big, deep pools of facts are pretty darn boring. Without going on and on, I have looked at and analyzed an awful lot of data in my time.. And I have to say, I don't see Americans acting better or worse than any other group of humans. Neither better nor worse. And calls to return to some imagined purity of the past don't work, I think. Every group that tries to do that turns into something pretty nasty, actually. Like the Puritans or Wahabists, early Korea. Trying to "control" people with moral arguments is not the answer.
"Excellent, Pavel. Would you care to share the meaning of the allusions...?"
Kung.Fu.Panda, thanks. This is one of those poems that come up out of some subconscious well. It wrote itself - the mundane part of meI mostly typed.
We do know a horse named Stonewall - he's one of the Park Service police horses.
The image in the second verse is about the veiled power one can feel all around but not quite identify. I think the world is going to see some serious changes over the next few years - count out to ten.
There'll be a powerful illustration with the poem on my main poetry site this week-end. Please see homepage link on Sunday. It changes over then every week-end.
I'm amazed that anybody is paying anything back.
Are we talking Casablanca?
more aptly respond like De Gaulle did when he first met
LBJ, 'what is it that you want to learn from me?' - D
LOL! And the French still think they know everything!
major Poli sci (international security), minor economics (international trade).
Very long ago now. Some of my classes I can't remember, some I could teach.
"That is really a city park rather than a national park."
Mabye functionally. Jurisdiction is federal/state outside the District.
lawyerliz -- Casablanca? Oui ....
scone,
In terms of good and evil...do the same percentages exist now as any other time in American history...probably so. This goes back to shepherd argument though. Wolves and bad lambs always there but the shepherds kept them away from the flock, at least tried. The barriers aren't there anymore. Where are the shepherds? The herd isn't even getting examples of how to live a 'good' life. Just consumerism. This is where I think we are facing a decline like none other in our history. I am not trying to preach church is the answer, please don't take it that way. I think organized religion is part of the problem at this point, not the solution. But we as a society have to agree that some behaviors are bad for the survival of the whole...and some values are good...where am I wrong here?
rich,
you wrote to mp in previous thread:
If you have not yet seen Frost/Nixon, it's a much better film than I thought it would be. it also is a lot about setting the record straight on major govt. screw-ups. Unfortunately, David Frost was no Errol Morris. And Nixon was no McNamara."
from a stagecraft POV the Frost role was a losing hand from the get go, or more bluntly, the Nixon role was something Langella could sink those old vampire teeth into,
that is, chew up the scenery with gusto.
2) obviously rich you have never read McNamara's auto-bio or even read The Best and the Brightest. at bare minimum, do so before making such comparisons.
Bob McNamara was a boring 'systems man' out of Ann Arbor via Ford. IMO Albert Speer Lite...
Shakespeare could've done a nice piece of work on RMN but Bob would've never made it out of a 3rd Act alive.
ps: Roger Hilsman was my professor at Columbia, under Kennedy he was under secretary of State
where he created the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) which was the major nemesis
to Bob's control of the info pipeline of the war effort...
Well sales dropped what 5%. That's not nothing.
People have to figure out something else to do, and
they will.
Favorite quote from Casablanca:
As the leader of all illegal activities in Casablanca, I am an influential and respected man.
Paval. Yes, I meant functional.
Scone:
Trying to "control" people with moral arguments is not the answer.
Obviously, as a Confucian I disagree and not merely on a moralistic basis.
People are creatures of expectations. The moral code and expectations you convey to them early in their life -- their "life script" -- has an immense effect on people. People are social animals and they both look for and respond to these behavior cues. The place people go wrong is that the life scripts they arrange are not inclusionary. Everyone wants to be a moralizer and teach the people around them not to slack so much, to use an example near to your heart.
The reality is, any kind of life script like this has to focus on marginal individuals, and this is where it is never done right. What is the appropriate script for a substance abuser, misanthrope, involuntary young widower who is alienated, political/social dissident, shiftless wastrel who can't hold a job, that both provides the potential to return to mainstream society and also supports and approves of them, in return for them sticking to that script and making their self destruction or unproductive life an integrated part of society.
If you do this, you get a genuinely dynamic society that can integrate even the people who are trying to fall through the cracks, because falling through the cracks and getting swept back up again is part of the game, not an exit from the game. But, you do not see this because people want to play with the hammer of conformity and punish those who don't make it over the bar as a way of paying themselves a social reward for jumping over the bar themselves.
Re:--- de Gualle-- The French get a bad rap---they stayed out of a stupid war and have the world's best medical system Ketchup on my French fries, s'il vous plait.
I wonder about the conscience of the American citizen, those that I deal with have none. Trully blows me away, Continuely catch them in a lie, even school teachers,
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:50 am
scone,
In terms of good and evil...do the same percentages exist now as any other time in American history...probably so. This goes back to shepherd argument though. Wolves and bad lambs always there but the shepherds kept them away from the flock, at least tried. The barriers aren't there anymore. Where are the shepherds? The herd isn't even getting examples of how to live a 'good' life. Just consumerism. This is where I think we are facing a decline like none other in our history. I am not trying to preach church is the answer, please don't take it that way. I think organized religion is part of the problem at this point, not the solution. But we as a society have to agree that some behaviors are bad for the survival of the whole...and some values are good...where am I wrong here?
We have to start asking these questions of value as a society, and need to stop hiding behind the lame shell of utilitarianism we propped up with a bunch of higher mathematics and called the science of economics.
that would be an interesting thread (I think) - everyone post major if they supported the education complex at some point - I bet there are some eye openers here (both ways - some highly educated dolts and those with less formal education but instead with real wisdom)
MaryAnn,
The truth today in America is generally what ever the herd does. If you want to scare someone here tell them the truth They won't get your angle. Truth went out with socialized opinion.
MaryAnn, the premise is money is good, more money is better.
As long as you understand this, nearly all becomes clear.
Thing is, it isn't actually true.
There is a thing such as having too much money or too much
stuff.
Thanks energy, I will take the dolt category:
BS Econ Minor Mgt NAU
MA Econ Temple U
Someday this war's gonna end...
But we as a society have to agree that some behaviors are bad for the survival of the whole...and some values are good...where am I wrong here? - V
You're not wrong, but I would argue that the economic wolves have always been around, look at the railroad barons or the old NY bankster crowd in the 19th c. Look at the East India company. Look at the way "American interests" have been protected by knocking over banana republics in this past century. Capitalism has always had its nasty side.
In fact, I do see some improvement. At least the whole world is more or less in agreement that slavery is bad, for example. That's a huge change, and it has taken us centuries to get to this point. That's just one example. And every day the Middle East fails to blow itself up in a nuclear cloud is a pretty good day, as far as I'm concerned. There's a lot of consensus about what's good and bad. Doesn't mean that people actually do act any better than they ever have done, but that's just par for the course.
There is a thing such as having too much money...
I'd like to find out. Please send your check or money order to...
Ok, I was a physics major, and the math got too hard, then I was
an art major. Got part of a Masters in Ummm liberal studies long ago.
Then law degree.
Geology and anthropology have always interested me, after I retire,
may take some courses.
Read about 2/3rd of a book a day, average, mostly trashy novels.
BS in Social Criticism ---University of Hard Knocks.
Math major with some chem and physics
great commentary from NPR:
Outside The Beltway, Anger At Business As Usual
Outside The Beltway, Anger At Business As Usual : NPR
'She responded to the photo like dozens others: She looked at it and saw no one there to represent her.
"The feeling that you get is that everything that comes out of Washington in the end benefits people who are already well-off," said Apynys. "I don't want to oversimplify it, but on the one hand, your bankers have been well taken care of — and taken care of very swiftly."
In a matter of weeks last fall, Congress approved hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out big financial companies. Now, Apynys says, as she watches lawmakers inch along on health care, she has a sick feeling in her stomach.
"All we can do out here in the hinterlands is just ... ache."
Wouldn't you love a picture of the crowd during any of the fiscal or housing sessions with all the lobbyists identified? I sure would.
V777-
I agree. For a myriad of reasons, we have achieved a "tragedy of the commons" writ large. Our prevailing paradigm based on consumerism trumping all and personal or collective sacrifice not even making it on to the list of options -- even as a last resort -- clearly needs a full reboot. Sadly, the very nature of the paradigm pretty well guarantees that said reboot won't happen absent some sort of catastrophic trigger.
If anyone out there has too much money, I can help you.
The housing crisis in Miami IS such a catastrophic trigger.
Scone
You and I agree more than disagree. I can't remember the exact quote but the poor can't afford morals, the rich can afford not to have them...the only class with morals is the middle. First middle class is shrinking rapidly, second the lines between poor and middle class have been blurred by technology and the gap between the truly wealthy. I would argue that when the middle class has no hope, no direction, everything gets thrown out the window.
Liz,
I know many people who were planning on going back to school but in my state, it will be almost impossible to get in.
CSU system says it won't accept spring enrollment applications
CSU system says it won't accept spring enrollment applications - Latest News - sacbee.com
The community colleges are being crushed and the state schools are closing off admissions. The state hasn't been paying their tuition bills and the CSU and UC system was letting them float the money until they could catch up but it looks like the campuses have had enough..
Speed (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 10:08 am
If anyone out there has too much money, I can help you.
That you Timmay?
Hahahahahaha.
But you really can have too much money.
Anybody want to make a guess of how much would be too much for
them?
And then give your major.
I agree, liz. Or at least I agree that it has started the rapidly dwindling countdown clock on the catastrophic trigger.
Oink!
onward and upthreadward!
For forty years I have had my own business' at some , life was good at others I would have to talk to my banker every morning, maybe all I had was my word, Most always I have found, inorder to survive is to be your own counsel, tell no one your business and I have a son in law who is a damn successfull criminal attorney who goes into fits when he finds out a client has lied to his own attorney.
The real risk will be when they get real weapons they can deliver- right now it is 1949 in the middle east- one side is equipped, but the other is still working on it. Throw in the spectre of an absolute view of religion, and you have an inevitable course.
There is very little organic morality outside of religion in that region. In some ways, whatever was reasonable in Arab culture was destroyed when the riders off the steppes started in on a much more civilized middle east in the 10th century. Ever since then, there has been the viewpoint of the Khan and Tamerlane lurking just under the surface. That attitude has done more to hold them back than all the interference from the West.
Despotism is usually very unenlightened.
Further complicating the situation is that endowment of oil. When that is gone, that part of the world will be truly bereft of any western support, with an unsustainable population right now without external support.
Population pressures alone will dictate that from India to Turkey and Egypt there will be no peace in my time, or two or three generations from now.
In other words, demography and religion will make the place a true misery- as long as the West has provided wealth and a safety valve, they have kept the lid on it.
Nuclear weapons removes the lid.
Further impotent actions against the West met with savage reprisals have led to a built up cultural rage that defies logic.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Most people never have enough. Most people have no concept of how much is enough.
Good example is of a wife who continualy says hubby doesn't earn enough. No matter how hard he works or how much wife has. Then the marriage councelor tells hubby to start buying stuff he can show off so his kids will understand that daddy earns enough.
Everyone having a car, cell phone, music lessons, mall shopping money, bigger house, designer jeans etc etc to death - is not enough.
makes me insane sometimes.
I think there should be a cap on wealth. No one should ever have more than a billion dollars.
lawyerliz, I need at least a trillion. See I had a very vivid dream when I was 10. (Yes, I have had lots of dreams) My calling is to build an underground upside down pyramid with dual nuclear reactors connected to an underground watersupply. Plants, animials, regular Noah's Ark situation. Most real dream I have ever had.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 12:08 pm
Scone
You and I agree more than disagree. I can't remember the exact quote but the poor can't afford morals, the rich can afford not to have them...the only class with morals is the middle. First middle class is shrinking rapidly, second the lines between poor and middle class have been blurred by technology and the gap between the truly wealthy. I would argue that when the middle class has no hope, no direction, everything gets thrown out the window.
+1
Again, we need less American Idol and more Working Class Hero
I can't remember the exact quote but the poor can't afford morals, the rich can afford not to have them...the only class with morals is the middle.... I would argue that when the middle class has no hope, no direction, everything gets thrown out the window. - V
You and I actually disagree very clearly, but in a non-obvious way. I do not frame the problem in terms of good versus evil. I'm not interested in a metaphysical analysis of economics. Not that people don't do bad things, of course they do. Madoff did wrong, clearly, and --importantly-- just about everyone agrees about that. But the economic problems we're seeing are, to me, mostly the result of herd-type behaviors that have their roots in our nature as greedy, opportunistic hairless primates. People did the same stuff that everybody else did, because it seemed like a good idea at the time. "Hoocoodanode" thinking. I like to quote Pogo: "we have met the enemy and he is us."
American Idle...
Interesting. I didn't ask how much you wanted or needed.
I asked how much would be too much.
I ask again. Vonbek, would 1.1t be too much?
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 10:10 am
Anybody want to make a guess of how much would be too much for them?
And then give your major.
NaN (Not a Number ... sort of a joke) ... just kidding.
EE/CS, but flunked out, fortunately, and retired early.
I'd rather have a love overload than a money overload. Seriously.
Liz: 2/3 book/day?! I knew everyone on this list reads and writes quickly, but wow.
People don't need more than $50 million.
Look, it's a piggled thread, so I can say this.
I love this place, these people. Thank you CR!
liz, when god gives me the blueprints I will let you know
Just hope he doesn't use cubits this time around. Math is not my strong point.
Nobody has given me an answer yet.
I will start. More than 3 million dollars at today's value
would be too much for me to handle, and would make me
unhappy.
No matter how much money you have, someone else has more money and the power to go with it to take it away. This time the government will do it.
Missed the earler GM thread.
Can anyone explain why the bankrupt GM entity's stock is up 38% today?
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GMGMQ
This is the kind of casino capitalism™ that makes the stock market so much fun.
How about you steel? Are you saying 50m would be too much for
YOU?
I'll settle for 69 Million...
Can't buy me love, love
Can't buy me love
I'll buy you a diamond ring my friend if it makes you feel alright
I'll get you anything my friend if it makes you feel alright
I don't care too much for money, money can't buy me love
I'll give you all I got to give if you say you'll love me too
I may not have a lot to give but what I got I'll give to you
I don't care too much for money, money can't buy me love
Can't buy me love, everybody tells me so
Can't buy me love, no no no, no
Say you don't need no diamond ring and I'll be satisfied
Tell me that you want the kind of thing that money just can't buy
I don't care too much for money, money can't buy me love
Owww
Can't buy me love, everybody tells me so
Can't buy me love, no no no, no
Say you don't need no diamond rings and I'll be satisfied
Tell me that you want those kinds of things that money just can't buy
I don't care too much for money, money can't buy me love
Can't buy me love, love
Can't buy me love
Liz:
Nobody has given me an answer yet.
I will start. More than 3 million dollars at today's value
would be too much for me to handle, and would make me
unhappy.
I would go a little higher than that. About 5m, I would want to shower about 2-3m on my peeps, get them hooked up with houses, educations, etc. I have lots of poor friends I'd like to help become comfortable.
Then a couple million to walk around with cash in my pocket while I cause trouble.
That's not an answer, lobbyist.
How much would be too much for lobbyist. Right here,
right now. No excuses, no headfakes, no other parameters.
Ah, byz has a sincere answer.
Gnome has a funny but prolly close answer.
Seriously, on a personal level, my wife and I have considered between 15-25 million enough to retire and invest and have a big family, raise Old English Sheepdogs...etc...but that was before this current economic situation. Now, my definition of wealth is not determined by dollars or bars of gold. Land, house, and food and water source. Paid for of course.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 12:16 pm
But the economic problems we're seeing are, to me, mostly the result of herd-type behaviors that have their roots in our nature as greedy, opportunistic hairless primates. People did the same stuff that everybody else did, because it seemed like a good idea at the time. "Hoocoodanode" thinking. I like to quote Pogo: "we have met the enemy and he is us."
I tend to agree, it is primarily an evolutionary limitation, and in effect we have hit the wall. That can't be changed on a collective level, it must begin in the individual, and cultural institutions need to recognize and support those efforts. Apes also don't deal well with billions of dollars, it is a number which we are evolutionarily and thus emotionally unprepared to deal with in an appropriate manner.
In the 50s my dad made $130.00 wk. That was enough.
Now I make $1,200.00 wk and that is enough. Bills are paid. Some money in savings. No CC debt. Some left over for fun.
In 20 years who knows how much will be enough.
Enough is not a number.
LL
I could easily spend $3 racing in one year. So the amount would easily be $100M. Like drugs alcohol I have no clue where my breaking point would be but now with life's experience I would do the best now.
Close Vonbek, but still not what I was asking.
How much would make you unhappy? 26m?
If it's that much worth of stockpiles and gold bars, think of
it that way.
lol I was going to put yours truly there as well
BA Econ with Mathematics/Poli Sci double minor (Univ. of Alaska)
MS Mineral Economics and minor in Petroleum Engineering (Colorado School of Mines)
When tax rates were much hire, there was less need to fear the super rich. Bring back those higher rates. I say that after the pig has killed the thread--and out of context, this thought would get people here very ill.
I would argue that when the middle class has no hope, no direction, everything gets thrown out the window. - V
That's another thing. I don't see the present situation as a loss of all hope, more like a forced transformation into something quite different. One thing this recession has pointed up very clearly-- we can't go on by building more and more factories and selling each other more and better stuff. The whole basis of the Industrial Revolution was, to quicken production to fill a huge need for stuff. But at this point, most people around the globe who have any money at all are up to their necks in stuff and the factories that build the stuff are getting more efficient, more automated. In 50 years, how many people will still be needed to work in factories?
It's like the transition from farming to factory, from country to city, 150 years ago. Except now, we have over 6 billion people. So how are they going to be employed, once the factories and farms are more or less completely automated, which will probably happen in my lifetime? This is the big issue, as far as I'm concerned. I'm kind of excited to see how people will adapt, and I'm certain it won't be all bad. Although I have no data to support this view.
Byz: Then a couple million to walk around with cash in my pocket while I cause trouble.
I had a friend once that would drive around and hand $100 bills to people without a word and drive away.
If you can keep your sense of humor and generosity a few million dollars can be liberating and fun.
Otherwise, just liberating I suppose.
hire--should have been higher--or not.
Interesting thought experiment.
\
Nobody seems to have got their minds around
the fact that too much money can make you actively
unhappy.
And now--no kidding--I have to take my mom to a financial
planner. big fight anticipated.
NR--Rocky Grazziano (sp?) was a boxer that used to ride through my Brooklyn neighborhood throwing 10 spots (called sawbucks back in the day)
I'm pretty sure that no amount of money would actively make me unhappy. I don't tie my sense of well-being to my balance sheet now, so I can't see changing that outlook simply because I had ready access to even several hundred million dollars.
With the planner, not my mom.
Nervous - One of my lottery dreams is to do that. Carry a wad of $100 and just drop them everywhere I go. There's nothing like the thrill of finding money.
Crash is honest. Think about it Crash.
Anybody else agree?
I will say if you retire (couple) at 50 you should have at least $3 mill live simple and have half invested in real income producing assets like real estate. It is truly a lot more cost then most anticipate.
Liz,
I agree that too much money can make one unhappy.
69 million would make me one happy HomeGnome though.
What would make me unhappy would be all the folks looking for handouts...
I have plenty of philanthropic ideas...
Good Luck at the planners...
Still not the answer to the question Lobbyist.
Sorry Liz, hope I am not driving you crazy. My 18month old is practicing for Chipendales striping off his diaper while wearing a Fireman's hat...and my four year old thought he would practice his alphabet on his toybox with a ballpoint pen. My concentration is diverted. I think I can acquire what I need to meet my dystopian paranoia of the future with $500,000. Over that, and I would worry and feel like a target. Low profile is the wave of the future.
scone, I won't argue with you. I have always been a glass all the way empty person. I hope your 'future' comes true.
Vonbek- My 18month old is practicing for Chipendales striping off his diaper while wearing a Fireman's hat
Thanks for the laugh...
What! A park in DC! A nice federal employee!!! Careful, you might confuse some of the people who believe Washington is just a swamp full of timeservers, preverts and politicians.....
(I miss my home town sometimes)
Too much is any amount that all my friends, family etc would think that due to my good fortune - I should hand out gobs of money to them. Having enough is great, too much and I think I would lose some friends. Or my eonugh then becomes way more than "I" need.
LL
Ever crash a race car hard? A friend did this weekend and he will be ok Now he can answer if he will drive again. Now he has passed the point of guessing. There is no answer unless you experience it.
My target has been and continues to be $3M minimum for retirement - $10M optimum.
I'm not sure how much would be enough to make me unhappy, Liz. I think with time passing, I'd see more clearly - either fresh opportunities or unexpected complications.
The thing is, it can do some very worthy things which don't dilute or diminish a person. There are children's hospitals and burn units out there not getting what they need, but getting to know how charities operate is a bit of a minefield, I find. For myself, however, much over two million would just become an annoyance here. Were I to move to Tuscany or to Vienna, I might raise that a little. I suppose country life in the Shenandoah would require quite a bit more.
BA Mus, then Vienna Conservatory.
Been trying to make my way through the classics of Western Lit - some, like Proust, can take a while to read. They keep opening out new possibilities in life, and seem to have changed me a great deal, over time.
There comes a point where the money owns you.
and for the gawkers, today's California links are up:
Exurban Nation: Daily California Watch 2
I hope your 'future' comes true. - V
Well, it won't be my future, I'll be dead. When all the Baby Boomers are gone, and the Chinese have all the plumbing and sewing machines and cars they want, and India is completely "modern," and even the poor countries of Africa have been "developed," then what is left? What is left for capitalism to achieve?
I would argue, the capitalism we know and love/hate has almost run it's course, and will necessarily evolve into something else. And I don't think it's back to the Middle Ages. I'm actually very excited to be living now. Although statistically, of course, I had a better chance of being born in this era than any other.
Mrs. Crash and I are expecting our first kid in February. Oddly, as I consider that pending milestone and all that comes with it, I can actually come up with a number. I refuse to raise a child whose outlook on life is one in which the default assumption is that everything that life requires is delivered on a silver platter without a need for planning, saving, or striving toward something. So with that in mind, my "unhappy" number might actually fall somewhere in the low single digit millions. Anything above that might give me a sense of comfort and lack of fiscal caution that I'd be loathe to pass on to a mini-me whose adult world is likely to be one in which a solid work ethic, refusal to think that one is entitled to anything, and a sense of fiscal risk aversion will be essential traits.
Anytthing above $10mm is waaay more than enough, interest alone is enough to live the champagne life on a beer budget without having to lift a finger beyond rolling over muni bonds, even after accounting for future value of money. Beyond accounting for FVM, I try to squander every nickel I have every 5 years.
And no, I can't help you.
Mrs. Crash and I are expecting our first kid in February. - ACP
Congratulations!
Nervous Rex:
If you can keep your sense of humor and generosity a few million dollars can be liberating and fun.
Otherwise, just liberating I suppose.
I dunno how liberating it is, really. I have had several friends strike it rich (by which I mean, made it to multi-milionaire). One lost most of it making stupid decisions, one turned into a gnome-like servant of the cashpile.
I know watching the Great Deleveraging take place would have been A LOT LESS FUN if I hadn't had about 200 bucks in the bank at the time.
I have seen a lot of people ruined by money. What it did to them, and what they did for it. Not even millions, which is the sad part. I have a friend you literally cannot trust with 20 dollars. I have seen people tear their marriages apart for a few tens of gs in domestic furnishings. I think it's what you bring to the situation. Even a tiny amount of money can be the worst thing that ever happened to you if you have bad character. Even managing a couple of million can be a full-time job if you want to keep it, and you'll always live in threat of losing it.
I've read the Volsungasaga. I know all about the dangers of becoming your own dragon. Note my use for most of it was giving it away. =)
California delays $4 bln education system payment
California delays $4 bln education system payment - MarketWatch
Byz, ----one turned into a gnome-like servant of the cashpile.
LEAVE US GNOMES OUT OF IT.
Your first and last warning.
Thanks.
Assume Crash Position,
Congrats...lower your expectations. I went in with high ones too. The first few years just try to get enough sleep. Fatigue is a problem. Best intentions don't cut it with kids. They are a reflection of your actions, not your words or thoughts. They are a blessing though. I honestly didn't know myself before my first child even with all my self-actualization exercises. One more thing, cliche, but take the time, it goes so fast, even being a stay at home dad, the time is flying.
Von- Thanks. I pretty well assumed that part about them being a reflection of your actions, not your words or thoughts. And that's why I revised my original answer. Even with the best intentions, access to unlimited funds changes one's way of interacting with the world in a way that I'm sure I wouldn't want to pass on.
"Even managing a couple of million can be a full-time job if you want to keep it, and you'll always live in threat of losing it."
That is why the term early retirement is not what many think. Still have an office that looks like a small corporation at work. Not a job but certainly not work free.
HomeGnome:
LEAVE US GNOMES OUT OF IT.
Your first and last warning.
Sorry, homie, I was thinking the Swiss kind. Is "dwarfish" okay?
Byz,
How about a troll-like servant to the cashpile?
I loathe those smelly nasty trolls...
That is why the term early retirement is not what many think. - LBD
I did it, and I'm getting bored. The paperwork is not interesting, either. Maybe full-time retirement is not 'rock all night, sleep all day' as I was led to believe...
Assume Crash Positions,
Your quote is pretty much verbatim what I said going in on my first, that is why I responded. Knowing you are a mirror doesn't prepare you for the reality. For example, flat tire, 103, almost brought the car down on me, and I lost my temper. Now my four year old has asked everyone and their mother what motherf*cker means...And I also thought I didn't throw that many temper tantrums as an adult, but my kids prove me wrong everyday. Hard to get mad when you see your own mannerisms reflected right back. But honestly, sleep is key during the first few months. Our first was not an easy sleeper...it was hell. Thankfully, the second sleeps like an angel.
Scone,
Health forced mine, eight years now and I wish I could start a business and go back racing. Can't do it. Winter is the worst time of boredom. Time or money are two things that don't seem to go together for most of us. The other is your friends are at work and can't come out to play!
From my earlier post:
California has also issued 91,000 IOUs totalling $354 million as of late Wednesday.
And they 'delayed' a 4 Billion dollar payment to their education system.
When do the riots start?
and where?
I'm closer to Liz:
1 million is plenty
2 mill would allow me to fund item 4 below
3 mill would be too much but maybe I'd start a winery where all workers owned a share of the business (think american apparel but for agriculture).
1) buy acreage with cash and build a modest, energy efficient home using straw bale or shipping containers. Build extra housing for friends and family if needed.
2) finish school as either a doctor or architect
3) start an educational endowment
4) start a non-profit business that develops housing and community run farms in urban areas - think of it as a non-religious version of habitat for humanity crossed with the slow food movement that focuses on urban vs suburban or rural development.
Are the humble willing to live off only a couple of millions? The country doesn't have that kind of capital--how about wishing for a secure job with a decent salary? That could be the new impossible dream.
How much is enough??
$5m after taxes and you would never see or hear of me again.....ever. Unless you travel in mid-baja ....... The key to having money (and keeping it) is to not make others aware of it. It would be so easy to just disappear into Mexico with that amount and no one would ever know if you lived correctly. I've seen people with many millions less go into mexico and become targets simply because they got careless and allowed others to see what you had.
BTW the one group of people where too much money is dangerous is/are professional athletes.....
Ciao
MS
HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:02 am
From my earlier post:
California has also issued 91,000 IOUs totalling $354 million as of late Wednesday.
And they 'delayed' a 4 Billion dollar payment to their education system.
When do the riots start?
and where?
If the State workers start job actions in response to the cutbacks the public reaction will undoubtably shift the balance in Sacramento. That runs the risk of getting out of control real fast. I don't see that yet but that's how it would start.
I like idea #4 the best, Grrrl.
gnome,
that has been my dream since I was a teenager. Came from a poor working class family in rural OC. I saw first hand how being cut out of owning a stake, however small, in the community that you worked affected everything in your life.
Something like this, Dawg?
The State Worker: SEIU leadership threatens to strike
MS (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 1:06 pm
BTW the one group of people where too much money is dangerous is/are professional athletes.....
Most of the money there takes care of redistributing itself, though, not unlike the fate of most lottery winners and lead singers in 80's hair bands.
HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/10/2009 - 11:13 am
Something like this, Dawg?
Not exactly. The SEIU is a radical labor organization feeling their own mortality. They are only targeting the governor and "Republicans" because they incorrectly think they still own the Democrats. This is all bluster and negotiating through the press.
How about a good support system from dear old mom and dad. Have been trying to set up a foundation for kids and it will fry your brain, especialy at our age, Maybe the money our government piss's away in thirty minutes would be enought for me.
nm
I couldn't give an exact number but 100 million is definitely over. At some point you have to worry about becoming a target. DH would want to buy a mountain in New Mexico or Arizona and put a telescope on it. I'd want to buy a place with good land, water and climate and split my time between the garden and the library.
I have a BSEE and DH got halfway through a BSCS.
Head and sholders will probably fail. too many underwater short sellers are anticipating it
. if it does materialize it will stick a fork in the efficient market hypothesis. Target
8400 next week. And then 9000. Interesting Finance & Economic articles
Just wondering, are there any actual history or even poli sci majors here?
Why? Would they be, solely by virtue of their credentials, any more likely to grasp the situation than the finance and economics major were?
accidental double post, sorry...
I'm almost as concerned about the denominator as the numerator. 25% fewer public companies since Sarbanes-Oxley was passed in 2002. And the decline is accelerating.
The problem, according to an SEC insider, is that the SEC has become beholden to the accounting lobby, which sees SarbOx as the mother lode.
Creates an interesting form of adverse selection: small companies that don't need access to capital markets (that is, the best, most profitable companies) simply go private to save money on compliance. What's left are the dregs of the small cap world.
Until/unless fixed, US small caps will simply list in London. Little companies grow up to be big companies, still listed in London. Sure Wall Street must care about self-preservation.