Hotel RevPAR off 13%

in

Saw a new homeless person living under a tree near my super market in Austin. He had a stove a black bag of clothes and alcohol.

Sorry I still can't get over this:

U.S. Food-Stamp Recipients Reached Record 33.8 Million in April
U.S. Food-Stamp Recipients Reached Record 33.8 Million in April - Bloomberg.com

Isn't it that the head of the household collects the food stamp? That means it could be a multiple of 33.8Million is on the food stamp. Suppose average 4 to a household, that's 135 Million Americans on the food stamp, or 44% of the population is on food stamp. Is US that fucked already?

A published study shows that free food is actually an economy multipl[i]er paying back 5 to 8 times the cost into the economy. ".....

Maybe they are counting the health-care costs of obesity-related surgey, amputations, and deaths as doubleplusgood for GDP.

@Scrooge McD - I think it must be total mouths - not just heads of households. Food stamps are issued by household size - so a larger family gets a bigger allotment than a smaller family.

Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 12:58 pm

Maybe they are counting the health-care costs of obesity-related surgey, amputations, and deaths as doubleplusgood for GDP.

Chances that Not One Cent is also a gold bug: rated at greater than 70%

scrooge. the USDA report shows that the 33.8 is the number of recipients. there's a separate number for households ~15M

"U.S. Food-Stamp Recipients Reached Record 33.8 Million in April"

but luckily we have the most wonderful health care system in the entire world

What's shrinking faster, the numerator or the denominator? Reveune down. Available rooms down. Them be dead green shoots.

@ucgal, @Basel Too

Thanks for the clarification Smile Makes sense, otherwise it would've been a bigger headline on Bloomberg.

What's shrinking faster, the numerator or the denominator?

The terminator is shrinking faster than either.

Morgan Freeman == Woody Allen

Scrooge McDuck,

33/305 is the proper %. You can't multiply by 4.

It's still an ungodly amount of folks on food stamps though. Buy hey, they're eating mud pies and grass in Haiti. No joke.

The occupancy rate is being gamed by keeping lots of recent new construction from being counted. We were supposed to be seeing lots of new capacity coming on line over the last year and through next year.

I'd love to dig down inthe HOST study to see if those 5800 participating hotels are reporting fewer rooms this year.

Food stamps should be obesity-adjusted.
Southerners get less!

Now the Federal gov't can enforce good health care.

Why Are Southerners So Fat?

Tell a politician about a problem and he or she will derive a way government can fix it.

Tell a Wall Streeter about a problem and he or she will derive a way to profit from it.

good articles... Interesting Finance & Economic articles 

"The part that made it a libertarian fantasy is that we spent like mad making a huge centralized state all the time we said we were getting rid of it."
The state has grown in response to the choices of the sheeple- a lot of folks don't like it, but here we are.

So I would abandon the AllenM-flavored fantasy of a centralized financial nanny state. Guess what -- you already have one. You have had it for quite a while. It didn't operate under a formal rubric, but you're gravely misinformed if you don't think the US had massive central intervention in its economy for years upon years now. It happened in the mortgage market, in the lack of regulation in the capital markets, in the lack of antitrust activity. I would argue those are great examples of the suborning of the regulatory structure- which will be remedied, lowering returns in those markets;-}

What you need to get used to, allenM, is that your "libertarian fantasy" was actually a tremendous and tremendously expensive entitlement program for exurban white suburbanites, and that you are actually out of money. Talk about the velvet fist of government all you want, you aren't going to get it, because you can't afford it.Of course we can afford it, we just have to print more money!b

What a funny little entitled career bureaucrat you are. Entitled? To what? No civil service protected job here- Oh yeah, my defined benefit pension that I pay through the nose for (a 9.5% contribution rate on my side?) As for Career- not really- I still have had more time in the real world working, than in the bubble gum machine.

Someday this war's gonna end...

cruised down I81 in VA and TN before the 4th. observed the often commented phenomenon of 4-6 or more lodging establishments at practically every exit. most of the buildings looked less than 5 years old. stayed at a couple, didn't seem very full, but some customers. felt like it was overbuilt. whoever was constructing the buildings and supplying the material won't have much of a market there for a while.

The occupancy rate is being gamed

I don't know, Dawg.

I spent last week in a Hyatt Place and based on cars in the parking lot, it had an occupancy rate of 20%.

Long time lurker, infrequent poster. Just discussed an SBA SRC loan with my local bankster. It's a pointless concept. This program will be as useful as "Hope Now" turned out to be.

It's really hot outside, we've been over 100F most days for over a month. The new homeless guy was sleeping in his underwear. He was covered in dirt and rocks from rolling around in his sleep. It made me uncomfortable. He didn't look like a bum, just someone who lost everything. His new home is a tree next to a storm drain.

We have a family of 5 that live under a small storm drain bridge in our neighborhood. It's a nice neighborhood, maybe it's safer here than the east side?

My friend's apartment (not so nice neighborhood) has an entire group of "undocumented workers" living under their storm drain bridge. These people have gone to greater lengths to make themselves comfortable, they have furniture. I wonder when their construction work will come back.

These three groups share a common thread, storm drains. Can we securitize storm drains? Surely their price can only go up.

Food Stamps equivalent circa 1933:
hunger march leaflet

Thank you for the field report, Berserker.

"Hope Now" turned out to be.

"Hope Now" accomplished its goal.

it's not their fault if people misinterpreted it.

sorry the storm drains have already been sold to a consortium of european banks and leased back by the municipality

LOL anyone get this letter in the mail yet....no?..well its coming

Banks Build Better Mousetrap

Banks Build Better Mousetrap | Sense on Cents

kz, it's all good until it rains.
the undocs are doing the recuerdo I predicted several years ago here.
No safety net for them here.

Not much of a safety net for the citizens.
Not yet, but we will rebuild one.

I predict a lot of the welfare reforms will be undone in the face of the employment collapse.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Why isn't anyone talking about what they're doing in response to this environment?

Or, is everyone just circling the draining, waiting to be sucked in?

Or, is everyone just circling the draining, waiting to be sucked in?

I'm waiting for my cash to run out.
Then I can become a true bando with no qualms.

RE Krugman on paradox of thrift:

Krugman argues that shifting the savings curve yields no net effect--except when he wants to, such as shifting the savings curve negative (deficits), which then gushes multipliers like a New Orleans levee gushes water.

Krugman: "Sure enough, the sharp increase in personal saving has been accompanied by a decline in overall national saving — partly via reduced corporate savings, largely via increased public deficits." (emphasis added)

Sure enough, Dr. Krugman, you cancelled the savings effect by formulating the government policy to negate the public's effort to save.

OT but very useful:

just stumbled across this site (motivated by AllenMs' reference to buying $NIKK in 1974) that has a ~crazy~ assortment of L-O-N-G term charts for a lot of things you would be interested in.

this handy-dandy link

mp, it is rather boring to talk about managing cash to pay the bills, shuffling equity to the banksters to pay debt to those same banksters, and deleveraging.

The Bank of AllenM is much cheaper than the banks, so I will borrow my own capital and pay it back to myself with interest.

It is just boredom as opportunities to increase my meager net worth shrink.

That and contemplate bando strategies should the layoff happen.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Dr. Krugman you cancelled the savings effect

Keynesian theory is not a suicide pact!

Yet!

Basicly, the gov't would have loaned me the princely sum of $3,000 to make the next six payments on an existing loan After 12 monthes this loan would be paid back over 5 years . WTF The paperwork and documentation alone make it not wothe while, aside from the fact that $3, 000 does almost nothing even for a VERY small business like mine. Also to Qualify You must ve "Viable" yet "Prove" "Financial Hardship" This is a bank I'v been using for !( years and they're not that bad-but they didn't make the idiot guidlines. More smoke and mirrors to make it appear something is being done. Yes that's Three Thousand Dollars Again WTF.

$3, 000 does almost nothing even for a VERY small business like mine

Spendthrift.
$3,000 buys me six months of pool playing.

Hope now is the new Mission Accomplished?

Anyway;
mp (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 10:14 am

Why isn't anyone talking about what they're doing in response to this environment?

We did. 2006-07. Back then there was time and Calvineconomy wasn't yet in effect. Just like the Chinese and everyone else time horizons for financial decisions have dramatically shortened at the same time the disruptions have stretched out.

Right now, short safe instruments and praying to Cthulhu that 401ks are not rolled into comprehensive Federal Retirement.

meanwhile the US dept of education will loan out $50K/year no questions asked to an 18-year old freshman, with the option of paying back over 30 years.

Citizen AllenM (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 1:06 pm

The state has grown in response to the choices of the sheeple- a lot of folks don't like it, but here we are.

That's right, and the "here" we are at is the place you come to when you have no more money.

I would argue those are great examples of the suborning of the regulatory structure- which will be remedied, lowering returns in those markets

The subornation took place because it furthered a process of white entitlement -- cheap credit and plenty of jobs as cops and paper-shufflers. It wasn't led by corruption and then the corruption found a shape, the corruption took root because it allowed the facts to be ignored when servicing the political necessity but budgetary impossibility of providing prosperity to the sheeple.

Of course we can afford it, we just have to print more money!

You can make a joke of it, but you can't have the velvet fist of the state if you can't fund the velvet fist of the state. Your state's tax revenues are down what percentage this year? So, it'll be a velvet fist, it'll just be the fist of a toddler.

Entitled? To what?

To tell us how the smart men with white coats and big heads are in charge now, apparently. But really, they've been here for a while. That's why we're at this location. If we had had a real libertarian revolution, we'd be in a totally different economic disaster right now.

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said any “substantial erosion” of the central bank’s independence in setting interest rates may fuel investor fears of inflation and provoke higher long-term borrowing costs.

“History provides numerous examples of non-independent central banks being forced to finance large government budget deficits,” Kohn said in testimony prepared for a House Financial Services subcommittee hearing today on Fed independence. The text was posted on the committee’s Web site before the hearing.

Higher rates may also “further increase the burden of the national debt on current and future generations,” Kohn said.

Broward- but whats your return on that 3K-perhaps I'm in the wrong line of work? Seriously, if the gov"t were paying the interest on the loan, somethin somewhat akin to a grant, it would make some sense. Sort of like the current fed rate the banks are paying.

I know many have been wondering these day where the hell is the FTC....seems they have been on vacation literally..

Where in the World Are the Federal Trade Commissioners? | CommonDreams.org

In other words, Krugman is warning you not to save or you will catch fire, and to prove it, every time you save, he will set fire to you.

Byzantine
I've Always ment to ask if you were from the Pittsburgh area. You have made references that appear to be about Mr. Murphy and his union deals.

KZ, which part of austin do you live? I am in tarrytown and I am noticing more homeless all over downtown and near the university and all over even in the suburbs. Austin does have a homeless problem and yes we have our share of illegals as we are a sanctuary city. We welcome them with open arms.

we'd be in a totally different economic disaster right now.

True.

If we can't afford a Velvet fist, are we now under the Velvet Thumb?

mp, what can you do at this point, except circle the drain? If you have the resources and connections, you can move overseas and wait it out. If you don't, then the courses of action one takes on a personal level to protect himself and family aren't exactly the shock to the economy needed to rescue the United States. We have one credit card, low rate. There is a balance, but not a large one. But until things look up, I am only going to pay minimum payments. Car paid off, no other debt except house, which we bought small and with a good rate, so we are prepared to keep paying on to stay current. My wife has a federal job, no signs it is in danger of going away, so keeping fingers crossed there. As a stay at home dad, we don't have any costs for daycare, childcare, or private schools....so that is a plus. We have a little savings, but not enough to survive financial armageddon. I have a safety net though with my family. Dad is doing well, already told me if things go to hell, we can move in and start sailing the seven seas and live off fishing. I don't have guns currently, little kids who are very smart and I just can't risk it right now, but my father does and is well stocked. Most people don't have a safety net though, I have enough trouble sleeping as it is, the future is bleak...I can only imagine how others are coping.

Kohn: Overall, the Federal Reserve believes that removing the remaining statutory limits on GAO audits of monetary policy and discount window functions would tend to undermine public and investor confidence in monetary policy by raising concerns that monetary policy judgments in pursuit of our legislated objectives would become subject to political considerations. As a result, such an action would increase inflation fears and market interest rates and, ultimately, damage economic stability and job creation.

So please, trust us, we know what we are doin.

We welcome them with open arms.

"Arms" meaning something entirely different in Texas, that is.

Who is writing more checks and where do their interests lie?

GM, Chrysler fight reopening of closed dealerships
GM, Chrysler press lawmakers to back off House legislation to restore closed dealerships
By Ken Thomas, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- General Motors and Chrysler are urging lawmakers to stop legislation that would prevent automakers from closing car dealerships that the dealers want to keep open, saying it would complicate their emergence from government-led bankruptcies.

The companies are closing nearly 3,000 dealerships as part of their bankruptcies, but the moves angered lawmakers pushing measures to restore the shuttered dealerships.

Late Tuesday, the House Appropriations Committee approved an amendment to force General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC to restore franchise agreements with dealers as a condition of partial government ownership. The auto companies said it could threaten their viability plans. Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis., said he would fight to save the amendment.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

mp (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 1:14 pm
Why isn't anyone talking about what they're doing in response to this environment?

I view it as a period of unprecedented opportunity and have been hard at work on several projects. Are you looking to invest?

Otherwise, as my dear mum used to say, "Does Mike tell Jake?"

Byz,
there can be no real iibertarian revolution, because the people don't understand it, and quite frankly would be terrified of it if they did.

I once did a poly sci paper a long time ago about how the UGT/CNT failed in Spain because they could not unite long enough to achieve their goals.

We will fund the Velvet Fist of Government - the federal government. The states are not really much in the way of governments anymore. Arnold's failure, is in some way, the failure of all state governments to be strong enough to resist the all encompassing hand of the federal government.

Arizona is an exception to almost any rule about typical state governments- and having been to anumber of state government conferences, it is both better and worse- depending on what function you are comparing.

But, this is one of the most libertarian states out there, such as it is.

Someday this war's gonna end...

If we had had a real libertarian revolution, we'd be in a totally different economic disaster right now.

Same disaster, different victims, faster resolution, brighter prospects, more democracy.

I think it's worth the risk.

The states are not really much in the way of governments anymore.

Ahem.
Have to disagree.
Allen, have you actually worked for the State governments?

There is a safety net, we live in a corporate welfare state, you have to be in the right group to get welfare. The only difference is Wall Street is the neighborhood where everyone sits on the couch in their front yard drinking 40 ounces at 10am. That's a little more stylish than living in a shotgun house in the port of Houston. Can't see Portfolio (oh whoops, dead) doing an article about living the high life in one of the busiest ports in the country. How can the same person believe welfare for people is bad but welfare for their company is good? (not you AllenM, people I meet). My guess is a lethal mix of entitlement, racism and apathy.

I hear the defense, "but I work 80 hours a week! How am I lazy". If you spent 80 hours a week building an airplane that falls out of the sky when it's not perfect weather then you failed. You should be sued into oblivion and never allowed to practice engineering again.

I hear the defense, "finance is required to allocate capital efficiently to maximise the welfare of the nation". All I see is a giant misallocation of capital and the welfare of people in this country being maximized by forcing people outside our borders to be our slaves (sorry, trading partners).

mp, what should we do? Globalization and finance has it's place in the world. Denying their existence or inevitable place in our lives is like saying the world is 5000 years old. ie. simplistic at best. But they should not run the world or our decisions as a nation. Until that changes, we're going to stick to our ways of waving the flag with one hand and suppressing the dissent with the other.

RE Krugman on paradox of thrift:

Well, heres another paradox PK can chew on (a tad tougher than the roast beef I would say): He admitted a couple of weeks ago on tv that US private savings (in his opinion) was keeping the yield on public debt low now that foreign demand has abated. Now if the US consumer resumes its spendthrift ways what happens to interest rates in the face of 'as far as the eye can see' massive supply of new gov't debt? And what would those rates do to consumption?

broward, yes.

If you knew how hemmed in the average state government is by the federal requirements you would be shocked- add a few voter initiatives on top, and there is nothing left but deciding if having guns in bars is a good idea!

Someday this war's gonna end...

Happy Birthday to me.

Crazy story of the day. Couple has paid off their mortgage with loan from in-laws, then
loaned 80k to a fraudster, who spent the money like crazy. At least 20k went to pay bills and there were huge closing costs, so I guess the fraudster got about 50k.
Anyway this potential foreclosure has an actual defense. Also, the loan appears usuorious to
me.

The deed into the young couple was neither witnessed nor notarized properly, and so is
ineffective. This the mortgage is at most only against a 1/2 interest. Lots of other
defects too.

So now their parents/inlaws have a 250k loan against their property which is worth
200k at absolute most, and prolly really 150k. They want to relien their property and
pay the inlaws because they feel totally bad, but it wouldn't be enough to pay off the
loan. I said you need to have a roof over your head. Try to refi with fha--since they
still have quite a bit of equity, settle the small loan you've got. Your parents will
move in with you if necessary.

Scrouge Mcduck,

Don't forget all the charities and public food banks as well. There is very little need to be responsible in America. Everybody rides for free! Those who cry the loudest gets the biggest tit!

I mentioned free summer lunch for school kids the other day. They also got free stimulus money that is not going to produce a job but cost more taxes. Obamanomics.

http://www.nptelegraph.com/articles/2009/07/09/news/50002424.txt

Broward:

Is pool that expensive in Boise??

Berserker (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 1:31 pm reply Ignore user Byzantine
I've Always ment to ask if you were from the Pittsburgh area.

I am not specific about where I live because I think it's not different than any other second-rate community in America. It is a formerly-major northeastern industrial metropolis with a hopeless budgetary situation and a hopelessly corrupt city, county and state apparatus. It was chosen for its extensive rail and river lines of communication, geological stability, excellent defensive terrain and how extremely unlikely it was to be fought through no matter how badly behaved my countrymen were.

I don't really take any particular pains to hide who I am or where I live, but I think being too specific would be counterproductive.

You have made references that appear to be about Mr. Murphy and his union deals.

A valid observation, but I think that many places in America have essentially the exact same problems.

Why isn't anyone talking about what they're doing in response to this environment?

Or, is everyone just circling the draining, waiting to be sucked in?

:: ::

I've been reporting in - been working with a small family owned machine shop racing around picking up the pieces that have fallen off larger failed suppliers. It is a positively great time to do that right now - crap is falling off failed companies right now like rust off a Midwest junker.

It is a formerly-major northeastern industrial metropolis with a hopeless budgetary situation and a hopelessly corrupt city, county and state apparatus.

You could have just said, "It is a formerly-major northeastern industrial metropolis," and left it at that. To varying degrees, the rest of it is redundant.

And, alas, I'm in the same boat as well.

Mook (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 1:52 pm

You could have just said, "It is a formerly-major northeastern industrial metropolis," and left it at that. To varying degrees, the rest of it is redundant.

Pretty much. That's why I don't make a big deal of it, they're all really in the same boat.

And, alas, I'm in the same boat as well.

I actually like it a great deal here. I just don't expect it to provide me with economic opportunity or to have effective leadership figures, and it's a good thing I didn't develop any such expectations. =)

Byzantine wrote:
... formerly-major northeastern industrial metropolis with a hopeless budgetary situation and a hopelessly corrupt city, county and state apparatus. It was chosen for its extensive rail and river lines of communication, geological stability, excellent defensive terrain and how extremely unlikely it was to be fought through no matter how badly behaved my countrymen were.

Springfield, Hartford, Buffalo, Pittsburg, on and on. If you seriously meant second tier then Pittsfield, and many dozens more. Nice places to be in the Kunstler post-suburbia nightmare but otherwise pretty dim prospects.

"Sure enough, Dr. Krugman, you canceled the savings effect by formulating the government policy to negate the public's effort to save."

Well, It worked so well for Japan...

double-tap, edited

Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 2:07 pm

If you seriously meant second tier then Pittsfield, and many dozens more.

No, one of my imperatives was perpetual availability of varied ethnic food.

Nice places to be in the Kunstler post-suburbia nightmare but otherwise pretty dim prospects.

I personally have good prospects in the electronic age and my trade (entertainment property creation & management) is specialized enough that almost (but not everywhere) is as good as anyplace else. I didn't like Austin or the R-D-CH triangle so I picked a place that'd be a nightmare funhouse to muscle me out of. A "good" outcome to the current crisis just means it's easier to pick up contracts.

"Ruins of the Second Gilded Age,"
NY Times Admits Magazine Photos Altered - CBS News

Someone posted about this photo spread the other day/ night...

Have we been manipulated, CR Community?

happy birthday. hope fla is treating you well today. i miss the weather (even the heat)--it's 64 (and sunny!) in boston today.

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