on a related note, FHA loan issuance continues to skyrocket.
and these people are worried about CRE? it is a nit compared to the FHA loss storm that is going to hit. luckily FHA holds 2% capital against its risk (that is 50:1 leverage for those following at home).
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage loans insured by the U.S. government leaped in June to the highest share of total loan applications in nearly two decades, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Thursday.
Borrowers taking loans through the Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Administration usually pay a lower downpayment than for other mortgages.
The share of government-insured loans jumped to 35.9 percent in June -- the highest since November 1990 -- from 25.7 percent in May 2009 and 27 percent in June 2008.
The lowest share since the industry group began tracking applications weekly in January 1990 was 5.8 percent in August 2005.
"A primary reason government-insured loans have retained a high share of the purchase market is that these loans typically require lower downpayments than conventional loans," Orawin Velz, associate vice president of economic forecasting at the MBA said in a statement.
The economy can't get better without both inflation and a new bubble--BB knows this and is in a bind. I don't view him as the enemy--more as the doctor of a dying patient.
I've just finished reading the post, and after long and careful thought, I've decided the best solution would be more stimulus. We need to give the banks more money, so they can lend to these people. It's a great solution, I wonder if they've thought of it yet.
Buffett is being used as an experimental Weapon of Mass Destruction to help continue leaking the idea that Treasury can print unlimited money. I'm fairly confused as to what was stimulus and what was TARP and what was bailout, so a second round of confusion and more chaos is just what the Dr orders!
Re: "He likened the first $787 billion stimulus package passed by Congress to "half a tablet of Viagra and then having also a bunch of candy mixed in --- it doesn't have really quite the wallop."
Buffett said unemployment had "a ways to go" and he would not be surprised to see it hit 11 percent before it recovers.
Rob Dawg...please see my pigged response to your prop tax comments...on occasion you and i agree (yes i do have libertarian friends) and i didnt want to miss the chance to say amen to your disdain for the prop tax system
Having watched three members of my family die from cancer (over 5, 7, and 9 years), keeping the patient alive is more in the interest of the doctor than the patient.
"Having watched three members of my family die from cancer (over 5, 7, and 9 years), keeping the patient alive is more in the interest of the doctor than the patient."
That way, no one can possibly sue you -- and the system makes more money. Win-win for you and the people who employ you.
Some doctors need to rethink what "first, do no harm" really means.
The govt. needs to act quick and bail-out anyone who could even possibly suffer losses from a CRE implosion, the impact on rich campaign donors would otherwise be horrible.
Humph, gotta get the U-Boot commanders of the boom to at least keep the keys and not go bando.
As long as that problem is not solved, we are just sitting here spinning around the same drain.
CRE is going bust- we have built too much of it, and guess what- if the consumer keeps dropping their spending and consumption- it is freaking doomed!!!
SPG will follow GGP as night follows day, unless we start seriously reordering the flows of money.
The pause is over, and what I find humerous is that the MSM still is looking for green shoots- welcome to the steamroller of another 4 to 8% drop in retail!!!
Stimulus is a misnomer, what we are doing is a desperate attempt to push revenues through a system that is shutting down.
Now, what is the destiny of a system that can not accomodate the lower flows of capital and revenue?
Capitulation.
Get used to the thought we are all Keynesians now, and the Velvet Fist of Government is the new reality.
The Ronald Reagan libertarian fantasy of Morning in America is past, we are on the other side of the curve.
CRE is a ticking time bomb? WTF! That's a fancy way of saying foolish banks and investors are going to lose more money. So what? Bad investments should lose money. That's the system. Deal with it.
There are not supposed to be guarantees for investments seeking returns above treasuries.
Wall street is trying to re-write the rules. What a sham. Let the dingbats take their losses.
The first step to realizing a problem is admitting it. Clearly, with the statement by these lawmakers, the worst is over the commercial REITs. Green shoots!
"We need to give the banks more money, so they can lend to these people."
....I wholeheartedly agree. There obviously are too many failing businesses - hence the increasing vacancy rates - hence the rising retail job losses - hence the less numbers of people able to spend in those retail establishments...........lets give money now to the landlords who will continue to not have businesses occupying their empty buildings. Totally good use of idle non-existent FedGov cash.
The problem is the credit.....there obviously isn't enough.
Does anyone know how many jobs were created with the first stimulus package? There must be a way to calculate some kind of ratio that can estimate the resulting costs or to determine if any jobs have been created.
WHAT ??? What kind of capitalist are you ? Bad investments should get bailed out be the govt. OTHERWISE why would you make wild crazy investments with not a hope of getting the money back but earning you personally a huge bonus ??
Falling prices are green shoots. Jingle mail is a green shoot to the liberated debtor. Debt defaults and lower prices are the solution to our structural problems. If the top 10% lose 50% or 60% of their faux wealth then too bad. It's obvious it wasn't really earned if it is not sustainable in a free market.
A CRE neutron bomb, technically referred to as an enhanced radiation weapon (ERW), is a type of tactical CRE nuclear weapon formerly built mainly by the United States specifically to release a large portion of its energy as energetic neutron radiation.
This Author offers a solution to the Fed trap. Please consider this short article discussing California. Is her solution workable? CR, your opinion would be valuable.
The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face, maintained since 1947 by the board of directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago, that uses the analogy of the human species being at a time that is "minutes to midnight", wherein midnight represents "catastrophic destruction".
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 11:18 am
Debt defaults and lower prices are the solution to our structural problems. If the top 10% lose 50% or 60% of their faux wealth then too bad. It's obvious it wasn't really earned if it is not sustainable in a free market.
Them's fightin' words!
Every rational response by the market to changes in supply and demand must be preempted by the question: how can this benefit the Oligarchs?
Nonetheless, city attorney Carmen Trutanich said his office was investigating how the city can legally press third parties to pick up at least some of the tab.
As for that libertarian fantasy of "I got mine, Jack- none for You!"
See that definition of Velvet Fist of Government I authored.
Now, banking will return to the low return, low risk model of yore.
Jamie Dimon, Advanta, and others are essentially calling business debt by shutting down the credit card conduits and calling loans.
Now, we stay in deflationary mode until the dollar drops, but that will take quite a while for demand for Tbonds to be overwhelmed by supply.
After all, all that money that is being repaid at a rapid pace and delevered gets parked, eseentially, until a run for the exits happens.
But if the domestic demand swamps that BRIC cash out, well, guess what, the dollar stays relatively strong, and money sleeps in the treasury bond market.
Bond returns were essentially garbage for decades... so back to the future!!!
Stock market returns here stink. Buy and hold since 1996 has been a sinkhole. That is twelve years!!!
The only way to really make money the next decade is going to be to go overseas. We have no need for apartment buildings, but china does!!
More cars? Not needed here, but in the Bric's the need is there, and with a bootstrapped economy, they will be buying. Not to say that busts won't follw booms- that is normal for a developing market. But here, we have a country that has essentially entered late middle age thanks to the boomers, with a diminished outlook from their diminished pocketbooks. See The paradox of thrift — for real - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
Although I'm in a coma, that was a snark. Nonetheless, jobs were created for Michael Jackson's clones memorial service which cost LA $1.4 million. That was a win-win I think and it does somehow seem on-topic with the CRE time bomb, but I'm still working on that.
Let's follow the Bernanke (il)logic. Take money from the tapped out masses and hand it to the insolvent banks so that the banks can loan the money back to the tapped out masses at interest. Hmmmm.
That's not logic at all. It's not even il-logic. It's sick-logic. Totally bankrupt of any rational thought. Bankrupt? There's that word again.
"The economy can't get better without both inflation and a new bubble--BB knows this and is in a bind. I don't view him as the enemy--more as the doctor of a dying patient. "
Perhaps the one case where I am in favor of euthanasia. (If the "patient" represents our debt sustained economic model)
Better to let it die or kill it off and get on with what's next.
'The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face, maintained since 1947 by the board of directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago, that uses the analogy of the human species being at a time that is "minutes to midnight", wherein midnight represents "catastrophic destruction".'
"Now, we stay in deflationary mode until the dollar drops, but that will take quite a while for demand for Tbonds to be overwhelmed by supply.
After all, all that money that is being repaid at a rapid pace and delevered gets parked, esentially, until a run for the exits happens."
AllenM,
The same could be said of the yen...think of the massive amount of JGB's out there. It's a longer term process due to their trade surplus, but I think the mechanics are the same.
"We need to give the banks more money, so they can lend to these people."
"These people" = US Govt.
Where do you think all those bank reserves are really going? Buying UST, of course.
Fed creates dollars to buy toxic debt from banks, banks take newly minted money to buy Treasuries. Treasury takes money to build more govt dependence and control into our lives. Some of that money goes to paying off bank's debts, who in turn take the money and buy more Treasuries.
That Krugman really bugs me. There is no paradox of savings. Rather than a savings paradox, what is happening is that all the previous shams/malinvestments which were booked as "savings" in the NIPA accounts are now getting adjusted. More mal-investment will only make matters worse.
C+I+G+e-i is a simple accounting identity. It is useless when fraudulent "investments" overwhelm the system.
The "I" was booked as a big positive, when in reality it should have been smaller or even negative.
I agree with your conclusion about going overseas for any real returns for the intermediate future. Besides China, which economies will lead out of this? And is there still another leg down for them as the US swoons back into the 2nd leg of the W?
Isn't it that the head of the household collects the food stamp? That means it could be a multiple of 33.8Million is on the food stamp. Suppose average 4 to a household, that's 135 Million Americans on the food stamp, or 44% of the population. Is US that fucked already?
"Better to let it die or kill it off and get on with what's next. "
I am with you. In a deflationary environment, debtors get punished and savers get rewarded. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that.
Sure, some people will go on about "there will be chaos". I don't believe it. Historically chaos has occurred in the opposite situation (where we are heading, BTW) - a debt-fueled hyperinflationary environment.
We no longer need such primitive equipment in the glorious USSA's economy. Perhaps they should begin development of a device that will more easily allow JPM and GS to slice their lousing debts into new, pristine AAA tranches of beauty.
Scrooge and foodstamps - actually, they are no longer stamps. It's now a plastic card. Stamps were too demeaning. A published study shows that free food is actually an economy multipler paying back 5 to 8 times the cost into the economy. Parking lots are full for the green shoots.
I remember the 70s all too well growing up, and we are still in about 1974.
It is a long bitter road ahead.
So, investing in Japan in 1974 was an excellent time to get in, right?
History rhymes, and we are not paying attention.
If you don't want to do the work, find a good mutual fund that will do it for you- for my long term hands off investments, I use T. Rowe Price, because they do a pretty good job.
Doesn't mean the booms and busts won't happen, but you won't be wiped out.
yeah, and Vought sold out to Boeing because (1) Vought supposedly was behind the Dreamliner's delays and (2) Carlyle Group is in a really bad cash situation. Part of the sale involved Boeing "forgiving" $400M that Boeing had advanced it.
PE commitments are not materializing and some of these overleveraged firms are going to be unloading assets now that the green shoots are withering...
The manufacturing department of America's premier builder of metal-cutting band saws is now down to a 12-hour work week.
The steel galvanizing plant where my mother-in-law works is running at 50% capacity, has laid off 1/4 line workers and applied across the board 10% pay cuts for the remaining lucky stiffs.
"PE commitments are not materializing and some of these over-leveraged firms are going to be unloading assets now that the green shoots are withering... "
The whole plan was to sell into any rally. Pump and Dump
Foodstamps are necessary in a modern society, otherwise we would once again have starvation in this country- which for a first or even a second world country is a disgrace- see Argentina for a prime example of how not to run a country.
Agricultural surplus is exported because the government doesn't want to ensure the people are fed.
This leads quickly to riots and anarchy. Duh.
I don't like Ellen Brown's solution of governments printing and spending money. The politcians are not to be trusted. I'd much prefer to just let the free market sort out the excess debt. I'd rather deal with a big drop now than have it drag out over a few decades. I don't want to pass the buck to future generations either and I certainly don't want today's crop of corrupt bankers robbing me and my family blinfd for generations to come.
Some friends of friends are out in the desert with their fancy metal dectectors every day to do just that.
They generally find enough to pay the bills and keep food on the table- but they sometimes are just one step ahead of the poorhouse.
Just a simple email ....nothing that should concern any of you though....not
Written By; S*** Wa*** is a Police Academy Commander and Professor at C******, and Commander of the 727 Counter Terror Training Unit. A 29 year law enforcement veteran, and current Deputy Sheriff, he is the Precision Marksman for the Union County Sheriff’s Office SRT Team.
The fear on the street is palpable to anyone who is paying attention. Ever since the election of Barack Obama as President of these United States in November 2008, coupled with the election of a democrat party majority in both the U.S. House and Senate, concern for the United States and personal safety has ignited like a fire in dry grass.
Sales of guns – black guns, rifles, shotguns and handguns (particularly 9mm) everywhere, have gone through the roof. AR15s have literally flown off of dealer shelves, and only now in the spring of 2009, have I seen the display samples of ARs begin to reappear on the wall of my favorite shooting emporium after the initial post election rush. Manufacturers of ARs are still working to catch up and some of the major suppliers are as much as 150,000 guns behind. Not only that, ammo is in the shortest supply I have ever seen in the 43 years of my shooting life. Have you recently tried to get 5.56mm, 9mm or even 380 ammo?
Supplies of 5.56mm and 9mm ammo are in short supply due to the black gun buying craze; .380ACP because of the rise in people getting concealed carry permits and the resurgence of interest in convenient 380 handguns like the fine Ruger LCP. In fact, in doing a review of the Ruger LCP, my gun store only had a small supply of ONE .380 round on hand, the Winchesters 95-grain SXT, which they had just gotten in. Unfortunately, I had to do a 30-round review of that pistol. There was none other to be found.
What is odd about this new fear is that it is not coming from the average citizen gun owner out there, but it is coming from what to me is an almost shocking source: street cops.
Street cops and SWAT cops that I know from various agencies – rural, suburban and metro – in my area are scared. Cops that before November 2008 never gave much thought (that I knew of anyway) to politics or more importantly to gun rights. For the most part, these are the guys that didn’t generally have any interest in shooting or gun ownership beyond keeping track of where their duty gun is, and a few of them didn’t even do that so well.
The guys I am talking about now are some of the same guys who used to not even carry off duty on a regular basis- but not anymore. They don’t scare easily, defenders of the Constitution of this State and the United States (as our oath of office reads), have been buying ARs, survival gear, and all the ammo they can lay their hands on. All of them (or I should say “us”) have been discussing and have been acquiring guns to provide a layered perimeter defense.
What are we suddenly so afraid of? Well in our discussions it seems to boil down to four areas.
First, fear of federal government intrusion into our lives. Every time I look at or listen to the news, there is something new and intrusive coming out of the Obama administration and this Congress. New tax schemes, government-run Canadian-style healthcare, a volunteer citizen defense force (whatever that is, what happened to the National Guard?) equipped with funding similar to our military, forced voluntary “service” after retirement, a lack of a southern border with hordes of illegal and criminal aliens pouring over our border, the swine flu scare as well as government forced closing of thousands of privately held Chrysler and GM dealerships, which will be the final nail in the coffin for these companies and the list goes on and on.
But these items in the news are just the tip of the iceberg. We can’t see the full impact of these actions yet, but we don’t know what was added into the thousand of pages of stimulus package bills in the dead of night yet. I predict however that when the plans contained in the stimulus packages go into effect, a lot of us are going to be surprised if not shocked by what has suddenly and sweepingly changed.
What also scares us is the second, well-founded fear that there is an assault weapons ban looming, one that would make the Clinton Ban appear like a look of disdain in comparison. I remember well the 1990s and the Clinton years: the rise of militia groups, the “black helicopter” rumors and paranoia, all of which was motivated by the Brady Law and the Assault Weapon’s ban. What if a new ban comes requiring registration or confiscation and turn-in of banned weapons as what happened in Australia?
…I foresee much civil disobedience coming down the road. Americans are citizens, and not subjects like the British, Canadians or Australians. They just don’t always obey the law blindly and not one officer or citizen that I spoke to said anything like “I hope I get to keep this gun for awhile before they are banned; They are fun to shoot, so I would hate to give it up.” It isn’t going to happen, so the cop on the street and the soldier on the base needs to think now what he will do if the orders come down. I think you all get what I am saying here.
Which leads me to the third fear, that there is a revolution coming, yes, a revolution on the scale of the original American Revolution. You can hear this topic discussed on many of the talk radio shows by even the big name hosts. The possibility of an armed revolution against the U.S. government being discussed, albeit very gingerly and fleetingly and as something to be avoided, which it is. I never heard this mentioned in the 90s. One of my quietest, low profile officer friends brought it up the other day.
He said that at some point in the near future, he felt there is going to be an armed revolt if things keep going the way they are. Something has got to give. I was shocked. Yes, I had heard this from some of my more radical cop friends in the past, but to hear it from a guy like this was unprecedented. Now, these guys are not saying this will happen to foment revolution, preach sedition or to even participate. They just want to be ready if it happens, to at least defend their families, because number four on the fear list is general societal chaos.
Cops fear for their parents, wives, children or grandchildren more now than ever before. Most cops are encouraging their spouses and loved ones to get concealed carry permits. Not only that, but some of these same cops are buying gun mounts for their personal cars so they can carry an AR in the family ride at the ready all the time. They are also strapping on heavier forms of off-duty hardware. I have other friends that are issued ARs or subguns for tactical team use, who always have their gear with them and are planning on just commandeering these weapons for personal use in defending hearth and home.
Final Notes
This is pretty heady and maybe even dangerous stuff. Know fully that I am not advocating anything here. I am reflecting to you what I see and hear going on around me, and maybe saying things that haven’t been said in the open, until now. It is something to think about.
" PeckedToDeathByDucks (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 12:43 pm
......A published study shows that free food is actually an economy multipl[i]er paying back 5 to 8 times the cost into the economy. ".....
I'd be suspicious of that study. Remember, there are liars, damn liars, and then there are statisticians. If they REALLY wanted to help, they could stop paying farmer to NOT plant crops, which would probably provide enough funds to pay for the foodstamps, and they'd be worth more due to the lower price of food. That said, I suspect the study's authors "knew" the results of the study prior to researching it, and only went through the motions to appear legit.
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 11:45 am
CONJURE'S FUN FACTS
The manufacturing department of America's premier builder of metal-cutting band saws is now down to a 12-hour work week.
The steel galvanizing plant where my mother-in-law works is running at 50% capacity, has laid off 1/4 line workers and applied across the board 10% pay cuts for the remaining lucky stiffs.
They are also dying.
Major mid and heavy construction and farming equipment manufacturer in the upper midwest is running under 10% real orders, filling time with RTS units, cut almost 1/3 of production workers, the survivors on 32 hour weeks or less due to occasional shutdowns, and all office and adminstrative including corporate management took a 20% cut or mandatory 1-day furlough with no compensation from accumulated vacation. My mom opted for the furlough, plays a lot of solitaire, and says it's just a matter of time.
Re: 1 in 4 (26%) Americans are obese (not overweight, obese):
Think of all the money that will go to fruit juice and candy and fatty stuff like deep fried Squirrel Kabobs; this is called opportunity at your friggn door, wake the F up!
Get used to the thought we are all Keynesians now, and the Velvet Fist of Government is the new reality.
The Ronald Reagan libertarian fantasy of Morning in America is past, we are on the other side of the curve.
The part that made it a libertarian fantasy is that we spent like mad making a huge centralized state all the time we said we were getting rid of it.
So I would abandon the AllenM-flavored fantasy of a centralized financial nanny state. Guess what -- you already have one. You have had it for quite a while. It didn't operate under a formal rubric, but you're gravely misinformed if you don't think the US had massive central intervention in its economy for years upon years now. It happened in the mortgage market, in the lack of regulation in the capital markets, in the lack of antitrust activity.
What you need to get used to, allenM, is that your "libertarian fantasy" was actually a tremendous and tremendously expensive entitlement program for exurban white suburbanites, and that you are actually out of money. Talk about the velvet fist of government all you want, you aren't going to get it, because you can't afford it.
What a funny little entitled career bureaucrat you are.
"This Lady has solution for taking the Fed, debt and interest out of the picture. Web of Debt - Articles
so, what do you think? is her view correct? can it be implemented? "
Interesting site, thanks. I just skimmed one of the articles, about monetizing the debt. She argues the Fed should monetize, and be honest about it, since that is all money is anyway - debt.
I disagree with her conclusion. i don't think money-printing in a credit-bubble burst is a bad idea, the problem with that theory, as we see today, is the transmission mechanism sucks. BB is creating money, but funneling it all to the banks, who skim off their piece, and hand the rest to the govt, who uses it to increase their size and power.
I am not a pure "supply-sider", but I think newly-minted money would be much better off in the hands of businesses and individuals via tax cuts. dropping individual tax rates across the board is a very crude approach, and really doesn't work. better would be to accelerate depreciation on capital expenditures, payroll tax cuts, R&D credits, etc. things that create productivity. sure, some of it is wasted, but much more goes to productive means in the private sector instead of to the "borg". 300MM people trying to make a buck is going to lead to a better society than 3000 people trying to concentrate their power.
the alternative is to just let deflation happen, which i think is a better alternative than feeding the govt beast. the road we are on now will lead to chaos or serfdom, depending on the reaction of the population.
Angry Saver..thanks for that reply. She takes the Fed middleman out of the picture and with that the debt disappears. She then takes it a step further by taking it down to the State level. Hence a huge baggage of corruption is dumped.
Some communities are now taking it to the town level. Printing their own vouchers. Disintermediation seems to be the answer. Think of all the G-8 dinner & travel money that would be saved.
Written By; S*** Wa*** is a Police Academy Commander and Professor at C******, and Commander of the 727 Counter Terror Training Unit. A 29 year law enforcement veteran, and current Deputy Sheriff, he is the Precision Marksman for the Union County Sheriff’s Office SRT Team.
He should know better- there is no gun shortage in America, nor is there a real ammo shortage.
There is only whipped up paranoia from the gun folks that O is gonna take the toys away.
All he will do is raise the taxes.
I note that here in Phoenix, the street price of guns is starting to fall, as the pawn shops have started filling up with them.
In other words, paranoia strikes deep.
We have what, two guns per adult in this country already?
PeckedToDeathByDucks (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 11:53 am
Angry Saver..thanks for that reply. She takes the Fed middleman out of the picture and with that the debt disappears. She then takes it a step further by taking it down to the State level. Hence a huge baggage of corruption is dumped.
Some communities are now taking it to the town level. Printing their own vouchers. Disintermediation seems to be the answer. Think of all the G-8 dinner & travel money that would be saved.
Direct creation of credit by the Fed to the consumer is the mid to long term future IMHO, assuming we have a mid to long term future.
the fed will move to shut down any such attemot to difuse its power. Her solution does nothing but insert another middleman into the process to collect rents which ahve to come from somewhere. IF this was such a no brainer then it would ahve been done already. Her solution is apparently no different from timmy in that it is too little ledning that is happening. While one cant blame her for wanting to usurp some of the commerical banking rents, the ABA will not be happy. This isn;t a solution it is a legalese too clever by half logic. Good read, but what is clear is she doesn;t uinderstand the problem.
Citizen AllenM knows all...he comes from Phoenix....I see first hand the shortages.....I have been a certificated firearms ( I hate the term expert ) owner for well over 25 years.....
There are major shortages...I get a kick out of these its a "mentality"...some people are so slow, those are the ones we need to watch out for the slow thinkers......you know the kudlow types.
or adults, overweight and obesity ranges are determined by using weight and height to calculate a number called the "body mass index" (BMI). BMI is used because, for most people, it correlates with their amount of body fat.
An adult who has a BMI between 25 and 29.9 is considered overweight.
An adult who has a BMI of 30 or higher is considered obese.
Don't forget all the charities and public food banks as well. There is very little need to be responsible in America. Everybody rides for free! Those who cry the loudest gets the biggest tit!
I mentioned free summer lunch for school kids the other day. They also got free stimulus money that is not going to produce a job but cost more taxes. Obamanomics.
Re: "money that is not going to produce a job but cost more taxes."
Oh come on, jobs will be created, I mean saved in the food service industry across the spectrum, like from the lunchline ladies to the people that add salt and sugar to the cans of nutritionally deprived crap that is served to the little oinkers. This is The American dream, to have unlimited amounts of junk food for free!
Subprime was The (Human) Bait Ball and now as more and more groups of "efficient" dolphins ban together to hunt larger bait balls, Neptune will watch The Bait ball Bubble grow and explode and then dolphins will all die off as they are unable to find food.... does that make sense ...I'm still working on that, and this thread should be dead, so WTF?
Shill: We went through the same thing in the summer of 1994 when Congress was debating the crime bill. Conservatives were convinced that the evil Bill Clinton was going to take away all our guns, so they were buying up like crazy. I know this, because I was shopping for a handgun myself. I had to put an order in and wait a few weeks for it to arrive because demand was so high. If memory serves me correctly, the Brady Bill was decoupled from the Crime Bill itself. Don't recall if it passed, but the hysteria seemed to pass after a while.
When i see Bernake now, i get this picture of Don Knotts playing a Mr. Limpet character being played by the channeling of jerry Lewis... trying to be the Dr. Kavorkian of the economy, yet for some bumbling reasons just cant kill it off , more like Chevy Chase in European Vacation and he keeps running over Eric Idol.....
BMI isn't a valuable indicator of health for muscular athletes. Use calipers if you're really trying to monitor your body fat.
The obesity epidemic in this country has serious consequences for our financial future. If we don't change our ways or find some sort of cure, there simply won't be enough medical resources in this country to take care of this number of unhealthy people as they age, irrespective of how our medical system is funded. How we got here is no surprise: The food industry makes more profit from pushing cheap, satisfying foods which, by default, will proportionally have more carbohydrates and fats and salt than we were ever meant to consume. This will only get worse as the population expands and protein rich foods become more scarce. It's not a calorie crisis, but a nutritional crisis that we're going through.
I treat my personal health like an investment; I spend more on healthy foods and exercise than most people would feel comfortable with. In the end, it's a lot cheaper than a heart attack and I enjoy the exercise!
excuuuuseeee meeeeeee!!!!!!
what a screed.......guys who ARE the gov't. are loading up on heavier artillery because they are afraid of.....themselves? I don't think so. Afraid maybe that the system is screwed, and they want to keep their positions of power if things get bad.....but other than that, this is nothing more than the usual OMG, the (insert favorite out-group) are getting uppity, we must do something to protect our kids & womenvolk. Machine guns for everyone....that'll keep the factories busy
Tick tock. Tick tock. What happens when it stops ticking?
Bernanke will take it all.
/Recovery in 2012 at the earliest/ ?
I'm wearing my ultra-clarification lenses, and that 2012 now looks like 2021.
There, much better.
--bh
on a related note, FHA loan issuance continues to skyrocket.
and these people are worried about CRE? it is a nit compared to the FHA loss storm that is going to hit. luckily FHA holds 2% capital against its risk (that is 50:1 leverage for those following at home).
Government-insured U.S. mortgages highest since 1990
| Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage loans insured by the U.S. government leaped in June to the highest share of total loan applications in nearly two decades, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Thursday.
Borrowers taking loans through the Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Administration usually pay a lower downpayment than for other mortgages.
The share of government-insured loans jumped to 35.9 percent in June -- the highest since November 1990 -- from 25.7 percent in May 2009 and 27 percent in June 2008.
The lowest share since the industry group began tracking applications weekly in January 1990 was 5.8 percent in August 2005.
"A primary reason government-insured loans have retained a high share of the purchase market is that these loans typically require lower downpayments than conventional loans," Orawin Velz, associate vice president of economic forecasting at the MBA said in a statement.
hey, if im gonna get pigged, first i wanna get kissed
The economy can't get better without both inflation and a new bubble--BB knows this and is in a bind. I don't view him as the enemy--more as the doctor of a dying patient.
I've just finished reading the post, and after long and careful thought, I've decided the best solution would be more stimulus. We need to give the banks more money, so they can lend to these people. It's a great solution, I wonder if they've thought of it yet.
Buffett is being used as an experimental Weapon of Mass Destruction to help continue leaking the idea that Treasury can print unlimited money. I'm fairly confused as to what was stimulus and what was TARP and what was bailout, so a second round of confusion and more chaos is just what the Dr orders!
Re: "He likened the first $787 billion stimulus package passed by Congress to "half a tablet of Viagra and then having also a bunch of candy mixed in --- it doesn't have really quite the wallop."
Buffett said unemployment had "a ways to go" and he would not be surprised to see it hit 11 percent before it recovers.
Rob Dawg...please see my pigged response to your prop tax comments...on occasion you and i agree (yes i do have libertarian friends) and i didnt want to miss the chance to say amen to your disdain for the prop tax system
"Recovery in 2012"
Nuff Said
"half a tablet of Viagra and then having also a bunch of candy mixed in --- it doesn't have really quite the wallop."
This Guy would know. He washes it down with a cherry coke
Having watched three members of my family die from cancer (over 5, 7, and 9 years), keeping the patient alive is more in the interest of the doctor than the patient.
The so called CRE "bomb" has already gone off... It is just that we cannot keep on ignoring it's effects now..
"U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kansas, said he was distressed about the situation the industry is facing."
He must have some money in it -- certainly his friends do
Hoocoodanode ! ! !
"Having watched three members of my family die from cancer (over 5, 7, and 9 years), keeping the patient alive is more in the interest of the doctor than the patient."
That way, no one can possibly sue you -- and the system makes more money. Win-win for you and the people who employ you.
Some doctors need to rethink what "first, do no harm" really means.
Look at the language. Banks have yanked back on lending to developers.
The sound of confusion or anger or dissimulation?
Doesn't Brownback always credit/blame God for everything?
CRE bomb
RRE bomb
Pension bomb
Credit Card bomb
Auto Loan bomb
Medicare bomb
Social Security bomb
Sovereign Debt bomb
Ch-ch-ch-cherry bomb!
The govt. needs to act quick and bail-out anyone who could even possibly suffer losses from a CRE implosion, the impact on rich campaign donors would otherwise be horrible.
Humph, gotta get the U-Boot commanders of the boom to at least keep the keys and not go bando.
As long as that problem is not solved, we are just sitting here spinning around the same drain.
CRE is going bust- we have built too much of it, and guess what- if the consumer keeps dropping their spending and consumption- it is freaking doomed!!!
SPG will follow GGP as night follows day, unless we start seriously reordering the flows of money.
The pause is over, and what I find humerous is that the MSM still is looking for green shoots- welcome to the steamroller of another 4 to 8% drop in retail!!!
Stimulus is a misnomer, what we are doing is a desperate attempt to push revenues through a system that is shutting down.
Now, what is the destiny of a system that can not accomodate the lower flows of capital and revenue?
Capitulation.
Get used to the thought we are all Keynesians now, and the Velvet Fist of Government is the new reality.
The Ronald Reagan libertarian fantasy of Morning in America is past, we are on the other side of the curve.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Coinz
Bom-Bom-Bom-Bomb
CRE is a ticking time bomb? WTF! That's a fancy way of saying foolish banks and investors are going to lose more money. So what? Bad investments should lose money. That's the system. Deal with it.
There are not supposed to be guarantees for investments seeking returns above treasuries.
Wall street is trying to re-write the rules. What a sham. Let the dingbats take their losses.
Prices must fall. Ponzi debt must end.
Inflation solves all...all asset prices rise. the dopes holding the debt get their money back in deflated dollars....
The first step to realizing a problem is admitting it. Clearly, with the statement by these lawmakers, the worst is over the commercial REITs. Green shoots!
"We need to give the banks more money, so they can lend to these people."
....I wholeheartedly agree. There obviously are too many failing businesses - hence the increasing vacancy rates - hence the rising retail job losses - hence the less numbers of people able to spend in those retail establishments...........lets give money now to the landlords who will continue to not have businesses occupying their empty buildings. Totally good use of idle non-existent FedGov cash.
The problem is the credit.....there obviously isn't enough.
Does anyone know how many jobs were created with the first stimulus package? There must be a way to calculate some kind of ratio that can estimate the resulting costs or to determine if any jobs have been created.
There are not supposed to be guarantees for investments seeking returns above treasuries. ~AS
No offense but you'd make a lousy politician...
I blame Goldman Sachs for the CRE bomb: how else could professional types be so duped about their own specialty.....
/snark
So what? Bad investments should lose money.
WHAT ??? What kind of capitalist are you ? Bad investments should get bailed out be the govt. OTHERWISE why would you make wild crazy investments with not a hope of getting the money back but earning you personally a huge bonus ??
Why do politicians care?
Doc Holiday - created or saved? or is there a difference?
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
The new report is out. No green shoots. Not much sign of improvement. If anything, it looks like a fade to the downside.
Jeebus...
Politicians take notice. Does this mean CRE is too big to fail?
The Ronald Reagan libertarian fantasy of Morning in America is past,
C'Mon, citizen, Reagan was farther from Libertarian than YOU!
nades,
Saving a job is the same as creating a job.
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 11:11 am
CRE bomb
RRE bomb
Pension bomb
Credit Card bomb
Auto Loan bomb
Medicare bomb
Social Security bomb
Sovereign Debt bomb
Ch-ch-ch-cherry bomb!
Bombs away! Good to be a bomb-maker though. The best model for the present economy is Jenga.
Falling prices are green shoots. Jingle mail is a green shoot to the liberated debtor. Debt defaults and lower prices are the solution to our structural problems. If the top 10% lose 50% or 60% of their faux wealth then too bad. It's obvious it wasn't really earned if it is not sustainable in a free market.
A CRE neutron bomb, technically referred to as an enhanced radiation weapon (ERW), is a type of tactical CRE nuclear weapon formerly built mainly by the United States specifically to release a large portion of its energy as energetic neutron radiation.
DH was that snarky or is there a nuance i cant figure out?
Baltic Dry Index keeps falling like a brick.
CRE bomb
RRE bomb
Pension bomb
Credit Card bomb
Auto Loan bomb
Medicare bomb
Social Security bomb
Sovereign Debt bomb
yep.......juggling chainsaws.........which will be the first one dropped?
This Author offers a solution to the Fed trap. Please consider this short article discussing California. Is her solution workable? CR, your opinion would be valuable.
The clock is always ticking:
The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face, maintained since 1947 by the board of directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago, that uses the analogy of the human species being at a time that is "minutes to midnight", wherein midnight represents "catastrophic destruction".
It's a time bomb of price discovery.
Ted Kaczynski for Bomb Czar
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 11:18 am
Debt defaults and lower prices are the solution to our structural problems. If the top 10% lose 50% or 60% of their faux wealth then too bad. It's obvious it wasn't really earned if it is not sustainable in a free market.
Them's fightin' words!
Every rational response by the market to changes in supply and demand must be preempted by the question: how can this benefit the Oligarchs?
Michael Jackson memorial cost LA $1.4 million
Nonetheless, city attorney Carmen Trutanich said his office was investigating how the city can legally press third parties to pick up at least some of the tab.
Their donors are being hurt and who cares about the little people.
Give the banks more money, yeh, that will fix everything.
"U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kansas, said he was distressed about the situation the industry is facing."
where are the kickbacks going to come from if none of the deals that are made pencil out?
As for that libertarian fantasy of "I got mine, Jack- none for You!"
See that definition of Velvet Fist of Government I authored.
Now, banking will return to the low return, low risk model of yore.
Jamie Dimon, Advanta, and others are essentially calling business debt by shutting down the credit card conduits and calling loans.
Now, we stay in deflationary mode until the dollar drops, but that will take quite a while for demand for Tbonds to be overwhelmed by supply.
After all, all that money that is being repaid at a rapid pace and delevered gets parked, eseentially, until a run for the exits happens.
But if the domestic demand swamps that BRIC cash out, well, guess what, the dollar stays relatively strong, and money sleeps in the treasury bond market.
Bond returns were essentially garbage for decades... so back to the future!!!
Stock market returns here stink. Buy and hold since 1996 has been a sinkhole. That is twelve years!!!
The only way to really make money the next decade is going to be to go overseas. We have no need for apartment buildings, but china does!!
More cars? Not needed here, but in the Bric's the need is there, and with a bootstrapped economy, they will be buying. Not to say that busts won't follw booms- that is normal for a developing market. But here, we have a country that has essentially entered late middle age thanks to the boomers, with a diminished outlook from their diminished pocketbooks. See The paradox of thrift — for real - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
Thanks for playing!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Nades,
Although I'm in a coma, that was a snark. Nonetheless, jobs were created for Michael Jackson's clones memorial service which cost LA $1.4 million. That was a win-win I think and it does somehow seem on-topic with the CRE time bomb, but I'm still working on that.
Tim do you have a link for this 1.4million MJ crapfest?
What's gonna leave the biggest scar?
N Korea attacking the internet?
CA going bust?
CREexplosion?
Mel- N Korea attacking the internet?
Don't believe everything the USG tells you.
Michael Jackson memorial cost LA $1.4 million
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
DH - i was hoping so....
cause if not i was totally clueless... cheers!
Elmer Fudd, me thinking the same thing.
Let's follow the Bernanke (il)logic. Take money from the tapped out masses and hand it to the insolvent banks so that the banks can loan the money back to the tapped out masses at interest. Hmmmm.
That's not logic at all. It's not even il-logic. It's sick-logic. Totally bankrupt of any rational thought. Bankrupt? There's that word again.
Thank you, Tim!
For MJ lovers.... (Or lovers of LA, its a donation page for his memorial)
The Mayor of the City of Los Angeles
NO problemo
"The economy can't get better without both inflation and a new bubble--BB knows this and is in a bind. I don't view him as the enemy--more as the doctor of a dying patient. "
Perhaps the one case where I am in favor of euthanasia. (If the "patient" represents our debt sustained economic model)
Better to let it die or kill it off and get on with what's next.
Mel,
It seems to me that N Korea should just take out a large loan from Citi and then go into default and stop playing games on the internet.
'The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face, maintained since 1947 by the board of directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago, that uses the analogy of the human species being at a time that is "minutes to midnight", wherein midnight represents "catastrophic destruction".'
What does the clock read now?
"U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kansas, said he was distressed about the situation the industry is facing."
Studies show that distressed real estate is a leading cause of distressed senators.
Anyone see the Cerberus letter? Sounds like they are basically in run-off mode now.
RATM
Heard about it. Crew and Captain go down with the ship?
"Now, we stay in deflationary mode until the dollar drops, but that will take quite a while for demand for Tbonds to be overwhelmed by supply.
After all, all that money that is being repaid at a rapid pace and delevered gets parked, esentially, until a run for the exits happens."
AllenM,
The same could be said of the yen...think of the massive amount of JGB's out there. It's a longer term process due to their trade surplus, but I think the mechanics are the same.
IT WAS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT (in 2007)
Doomsday Clock
"Cerberus Chairman: "Significant Macro Risks" May Affect Future Results; Won't Let Investors Out of Main Hedge Fund: WSJ "
"We need to give the banks more money, so they can lend to these people."
"These people" = US Govt.
Where do you think all those bank reserves are really going? Buying UST, of course.
Fed creates dollars to buy toxic debt from banks, banks take newly minted money to buy Treasuries. Treasury takes money to build more govt dependence and control into our lives. Some of that money goes to paying off bank's debts, who in turn take the money and buy more Treasuries.
A "serfdom" machine, as it were.
That Krugman really bugs me. There is no paradox of savings. Rather than a savings paradox, what is happening is that all the previous shams/malinvestments which were booked as "savings" in the NIPA accounts are now getting adjusted. More mal-investment will only make matters worse.
C+I+G+e-i is a simple accounting identity. It is useless when fraudulent "investments" overwhelm the system.
The "I" was booked as a big positive, when in reality it should have been smaller or even negative.
Allen M,
I agree with your conclusion about going overseas for any real returns for the intermediate future. Besides China, which economies will lead out of this? And is there still another leg down for them as the US swoons back into the 2nd leg of the W?
Regarding this headline:
U.S. Food-Stamp Recipients Reached Record 33.8 Million in April
U.S. Food-Stamp Recipients Reached Record 33.8 Million in April - Bloomberg.com
Isn't it that the head of the household collects the food stamp? That means it could be a multiple of 33.8Million is on the food stamp. Suppose average 4 to a household, that's 135 Million Americans on the food stamp, or 44% of the population. Is US that fucked already?
CONJURE'S FUN FACTS
The manufacturing department of America's premier builder of metal-cutting band saws is now down to a 12-hour work week.
All other departments are off one week/month.
They are dying.
@ghostfaceinvestah - correct
This Lady has solution for taking the Fed, debt and interest out of the picture.
Web of Debt - Articles
so, what do you think? is her view correct? can it be implemented?
"Better to let it die or kill it off and get on with what's next. "
I am with you. In a deflationary environment, debtors get punished and savers get rewarded. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that.
Sure, some people will go on about "there will be chaos". I don't believe it. Historically chaos has occurred in the opposite situation (where we are heading, BTW) - a debt-fueled hyperinflationary environment.
ghostfaceinvestah,
Hence my comments about where to put your money- not here is the best answer.
Hence my comments about the future of our society- raw capitalism has been given a fail by the voters- now the FDR team gets another try.
I am thinking Iceland is a buy right about now.
Nothing like sifting rubble for bricks.
Someday this war's gonna end...
" HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 12:27 pm
Mel- N Korea attacking the internet?
Don't believe everything the USG tells you."
I for one will be REALLY pissed if Kim Jong Il shuts off my porn!
mp,
We no longer need such primitive equipment in the glorious USSA's economy. Perhaps they should begin development of a device that will more easily allow JPM and GS to slice their lousing debts into new, pristine AAA tranches of beauty.
"We no longer need such primitive equipment ..."
Just saying, that's all.
I hereby suggest a Mortgage Pig™ CRE Clock. I don't know what it looks like yet...
Scrooge and foodstamps - actually, they are no longer stamps. It's now a plastic card. Stamps were too demeaning. A published study shows that free food is actually an economy multipler paying back 5 to 8 times the cost into the economy. Parking lots are full for the green shoots.
Therefore, the solution seems obvious.
Chainsaw- see MP's comments on manufacturing.
The future is not here, not right now.
I remember the 70s all too well growing up, and we are still in about 1974.
It is a long bitter road ahead.
So, investing in Japan in 1974 was an excellent time to get in, right?
History rhymes, and we are not paying attention.
If you don't want to do the work, find a good mutual fund that will do it for you- for my long term hands off investments, I use T. Rowe Price, because they do a pretty good job.
Doesn't mean the booms and busts won't happen, but you won't be wiped out.
Someday this war's gonna end...
yeah, and Vought sold out to Boeing because (1) Vought supposedly was behind the Dreamliner's delays and (2) Carlyle Group is in a really bad cash situation. Part of the sale involved Boeing "forgiving" $400M that Boeing had advanced it.
PE commitments are not materializing and some of these overleveraged firms are going to be unloading assets now that the green shoots are withering...
Citizen AllenM (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 11:40 am
Nothing like sifting rubble for bricks.
Except panning for gold in the hopes of buying a loaf of bread.
CONJURE'S FUN FACTS
The manufacturing department of America's premier builder of metal-cutting band saws is now down to a 12-hour work week.
The steel galvanizing plant where my mother-in-law works is running at 50% capacity, has laid off 1/4 line workers and applied across the board 10% pay cuts for the remaining lucky stiffs.
They are also dying.
"PE commitments are not materializing and some of these over-leveraged firms are going to be unloading assets now that the green shoots are withering... "
The whole plan was to sell into any rally. Pump and Dump
Shakespeare:
Mark Antony--
I am dying, Egypt, dying...
MacNeice:
We are dying, Egypt, dying.
--bh
@PeckedToDeathByDucks
Sorry about Huey, Dewey, and Louie
Foodstamps are necessary in a modern society, otherwise we would once again have starvation in this country- which for a first or even a second world country is a disgrace- see Argentina for a prime example of how not to run a country.
Agricultural surplus is exported because the government doesn't want to ensure the people are fed.
This leads quickly to riots and anarchy. Duh.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Can one convert failed strip malls to condos? Maybe something like -
2/3BR, huge picture window, 25 parking spaces per unit...
One of my ex-girlfriends had a tramp stamp of a food stamp.
I don't like Ellen Brown's solution of governments printing and spending money. The politcians are not to be trusted. I'd much prefer to just let the free market sort out the excess debt. I'd rather deal with a big drop now than have it drag out over a few decades. I don't want to pass the buck to future generations either and I certainly don't want today's crop of corrupt bankers robbing me and my family blinfd for generations to come.
Ponzi debt must end. The sooner the better.
U.S. Food-Stamp Recipients Reached Record 33.8 Million in April
1 in 4 (26%) Americans are obese (not overweight, obese):
CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION SAYS 26% OF AMERICANS ARE OBESE - NYPOST.com
AllenM,
I've also invested abroad as I see a decade of decadent growth ahead. Should end in about 8-12 years.
--bh
"They are dying."
but the dimwitted pols can only hear the ticking time bombs
"yeah, and Vought sold out to Boeing..."
As I said last week, Boeing is in major trouble with Dreamliner. That's what happens when you put beancounters in charge.
Don't think it's going to end well.
Some friends of friends are out in the desert with their fancy metal dectectors every day to do just that.
They generally find enough to pay the bills and keep food on the table- but they sometimes are just one step ahead of the poorhouse.
Oh wait, we don't have a real poorhouse!
Someday this war's gonna end...
You dudes are bringing me down, snap out of it: happy days are here again
YouTube - happy days are here again
Just a simple email ....nothing that should concern any of you though....not
Written By; S*** Wa*** is a Police Academy Commander and Professor at C******, and Commander of the 727 Counter Terror Training Unit. A 29 year law enforcement veteran, and current Deputy Sheriff, he is the Precision Marksman for the Union County Sheriff’s Office SRT Team.
The fear on the street is palpable to anyone who is paying attention. Ever since the election of Barack Obama as President of these United States in November 2008, coupled with the election of a democrat party majority in both the U.S. House and Senate, concern for the United States and personal safety has ignited like a fire in dry grass.
Sales of guns – black guns, rifles, shotguns and handguns (particularly 9mm) everywhere, have gone through the roof. AR15s have literally flown off of dealer shelves, and only now in the spring of 2009, have I seen the display samples of ARs begin to reappear on the wall of my favorite shooting emporium after the initial post election rush. Manufacturers of ARs are still working to catch up and some of the major suppliers are as much as 150,000 guns behind. Not only that, ammo is in the shortest supply I have ever seen in the 43 years of my shooting life. Have you recently tried to get 5.56mm, 9mm or even 380 ammo?
Supplies of 5.56mm and 9mm ammo are in short supply due to the black gun buying craze; .380ACP because of the rise in people getting concealed carry permits and the resurgence of interest in convenient 380 handguns like the fine Ruger LCP. In fact, in doing a review of the Ruger LCP, my gun store only had a small supply of ONE .380 round on hand, the Winchesters 95-grain SXT, which they had just gotten in. Unfortunately, I had to do a 30-round review of that pistol. There was none other to be found.
What is odd about this new fear is that it is not coming from the average citizen gun owner out there, but it is coming from what to me is an almost shocking source: street cops.
Street cops and SWAT cops that I know from various agencies – rural, suburban and metro – in my area are scared. Cops that before November 2008 never gave much thought (that I knew of anyway) to politics or more importantly to gun rights. For the most part, these are the guys that didn’t generally have any interest in shooting or gun ownership beyond keeping track of where their duty gun is, and a few of them didn’t even do that so well.
The guys I am talking about now are some of the same guys who used to not even carry off duty on a regular basis- but not anymore. They don’t scare easily, defenders of the Constitution of this State and the United States (as our oath of office reads), have been buying ARs, survival gear, and all the ammo they can lay their hands on. All of them (or I should say “us”) have been discussing and have been acquiring guns to provide a layered perimeter defense.
What are we suddenly so afraid of? Well in our discussions it seems to boil down to four areas.
First, fear of federal government intrusion into our lives. Every time I look at or listen to the news, there is something new and intrusive coming out of the Obama administration and this Congress. New tax schemes, government-run Canadian-style healthcare, a volunteer citizen defense force (whatever that is, what happened to the National Guard?) equipped with funding similar to our military, forced voluntary “service” after retirement, a lack of a southern border with hordes of illegal and criminal aliens pouring over our border, the swine flu scare as well as government forced closing of thousands of privately held Chrysler and GM dealerships, which will be the final nail in the coffin for these companies and the list goes on and on.
But these items in the news are just the tip of the iceberg. We can’t see the full impact of these actions yet, but we don’t know what was added into the thousand of pages of stimulus package bills in the dead of night yet. I predict however that when the plans contained in the stimulus packages go into effect, a lot of us are going to be surprised if not shocked by what has suddenly and sweepingly changed.
What also scares us is the second, well-founded fear that there is an assault weapons ban looming, one that would make the Clinton Ban appear like a look of disdain in comparison. I remember well the 1990s and the Clinton years: the rise of militia groups, the “black helicopter” rumors and paranoia, all of which was motivated by the Brady Law and the Assault Weapon’s ban. What if a new ban comes requiring registration or confiscation and turn-in of banned weapons as what happened in Australia?
…I foresee much civil disobedience coming down the road. Americans are citizens, and not subjects like the British, Canadians or Australians. They just don’t always obey the law blindly and not one officer or citizen that I spoke to said anything like “I hope I get to keep this gun for awhile before they are banned; They are fun to shoot, so I would hate to give it up.” It isn’t going to happen, so the cop on the street and the soldier on the base needs to think now what he will do if the orders come down. I think you all get what I am saying here.
Which leads me to the third fear, that there is a revolution coming, yes, a revolution on the scale of the original American Revolution. You can hear this topic discussed on many of the talk radio shows by even the big name hosts. The possibility of an armed revolution against the U.S. government being discussed, albeit very gingerly and fleetingly and as something to be avoided, which it is. I never heard this mentioned in the 90s. One of my quietest, low profile officer friends brought it up the other day.
He said that at some point in the near future, he felt there is going to be an armed revolt if things keep going the way they are. Something has got to give. I was shocked. Yes, I had heard this from some of my more radical cop friends in the past, but to hear it from a guy like this was unprecedented. Now, these guys are not saying this will happen to foment revolution, preach sedition or to even participate. They just want to be ready if it happens, to at least defend their families, because number four on the fear list is general societal chaos.
Cops fear for their parents, wives, children or grandchildren more now than ever before. Most cops are encouraging their spouses and loved ones to get concealed carry permits. Not only that, but some of these same cops are buying gun mounts for their personal cars so they can carry an AR in the family ride at the ready all the time. They are also strapping on heavier forms of off-duty hardware. I have other friends that are issued ARs or subguns for tactical team use, who always have their gear with them and are planning on just commandeering these weapons for personal use in defending hearth and home.
Final Notes
This is pretty heady and maybe even dangerous stuff. Know fully that I am not advocating anything here. I am reflecting to you what I see and hear going on around me, and maybe saying things that haven’t been said in the open, until now. It is something to think about.
Basel Too,
Soylent green is people. And PE is glorified house flipping. Of course PE is in bad shape. All shams end in tears.
According to Evans-Pritchard, "The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking"
Is Conjure's global depression clock still ticking?
" PeckedToDeathByDucks (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 12:43 pm
......A published study shows that free food is actually an economy multipl[i]er paying back 5 to 8 times the cost into the economy. ".....
I'd be suspicious of that study. Remember, there are liars, damn liars, and then there are statisticians. If they REALLY wanted to help, they could stop paying farmer to NOT plant crops, which would probably provide enough funds to pay for the foodstamps, and they'd be worth more due to the lower price of food. That said, I suspect the study's authors "knew" the results of the study prior to researching it, and only went through the motions to appear legit.
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 11:45 am
CONJURE'S FUN FACTS
The manufacturing department of America's premier builder of metal-cutting band saws is now down to a 12-hour work week.
The steel galvanizing plant where my mother-in-law works is running at 50% capacity, has laid off 1/4 line workers and applied across the board 10% pay cuts for the remaining lucky stiffs.
They are also dying.
Major mid and heavy construction and farming equipment manufacturer in the upper midwest is running under 10% real orders, filling time with RTS units, cut almost 1/3 of production workers, the survivors on 32 hour weeks or less due to occasional shutdowns, and all office and adminstrative including corporate management took a 20% cut or mandatory 1-day furlough with no compensation from accumulated vacation. My mom opted for the furlough, plays a lot of solitaire, and says it's just a matter of time.
Re: 1 in 4 (26%) Americans are obese (not overweight, obese):
Think of all the money that will go to fruit juice and candy and fatty stuff like deep fried Squirrel Kabobs; this is called opportunity at your friggn door, wake the F up!
AllenM:
Get used to the thought we are all Keynesians now, and the Velvet Fist of Government is the new reality.
The Ronald Reagan libertarian fantasy of Morning in America is past, we are on the other side of the curve.
The part that made it a libertarian fantasy is that we spent like mad making a huge centralized state all the time we said we were getting rid of it.
So I would abandon the AllenM-flavored fantasy of a centralized financial nanny state. Guess what -- you already have one. You have had it for quite a while. It didn't operate under a formal rubric, but you're gravely misinformed if you don't think the US had massive central intervention in its economy for years upon years now. It happened in the mortgage market, in the lack of regulation in the capital markets, in the lack of antitrust activity.
What you need to get used to, allenM, is that your "libertarian fantasy" was actually a tremendous and tremendously expensive entitlement program for exurban white suburbanites, and that you are actually out of money. Talk about the velvet fist of government all you want, you aren't going to get it, because you can't afford it.
What a funny little entitled career bureaucrat you are.
I always thought of competent cops as good wolves. Wolves know when the sheep are getting nervous.
"This Lady has solution for taking the Fed, debt and interest out of the picture.
Web of Debt - Articles
so, what do you think? is her view correct? can it be implemented? "
Interesting site, thanks. I just skimmed one of the articles, about monetizing the debt. She argues the Fed should monetize, and be honest about it, since that is all money is anyway - debt.
I disagree with her conclusion. i don't think money-printing in a credit-bubble burst is a bad idea, the problem with that theory, as we see today, is the transmission mechanism sucks. BB is creating money, but funneling it all to the banks, who skim off their piece, and hand the rest to the govt, who uses it to increase their size and power.
I am not a pure "supply-sider", but I think newly-minted money would be much better off in the hands of businesses and individuals via tax cuts. dropping individual tax rates across the board is a very crude approach, and really doesn't work. better would be to accelerate depreciation on capital expenditures, payroll tax cuts, R&D credits, etc. things that create productivity. sure, some of it is wasted, but much more goes to productive means in the private sector instead of to the "borg". 300MM people trying to make a buck is going to lead to a better society than 3000 people trying to concentrate their power.
the alternative is to just let deflation happen, which i think is a better alternative than feeding the govt beast. the road we are on now will lead to chaos or serfdom, depending on the reaction of the population.
Angry Saver..thanks for that reply. She takes the Fed middleman out of the picture and with that the debt disappears. She then takes it a step further by taking it down to the State level. Hence a huge baggage of corruption is dumped.
Some communities are now taking it to the town level. Printing their own vouchers. Disintermediation seems to be the answer. Think of all the G-8 dinner & travel money that would be saved.
Now don't forget the Swine Flu clock and the fact that about 100,000 people have it now and a few million will have it around XMAS....
YouTube - Swine Flu Pandemic @ 2 Billion !!!!!
Boeing is being ruined by its managers in Chicago.
Edit: Dinsdaled.
Written By; S*** Wa*** is a Police Academy Commander and Professor at C******, and Commander of the 727 Counter Terror Training Unit. A 29 year law enforcement veteran, and current Deputy Sheriff, he is the Precision Marksman for the Union County Sheriff’s Office SRT Team.
He should know better- there is no gun shortage in America, nor is there a real ammo shortage.
There is only whipped up paranoia from the gun folks that O is gonna take the toys away.
All he will do is raise the taxes.
I note that here in Phoenix, the street price of guns is starting to fall, as the pawn shops have started filling up with them.
In other words, paranoia strikes deep.
We have what, two guns per adult in this country already?
Please skip the black helicopter brigade here.
Someday this war's gonna end...
" M (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 12:55 pm
Boeing is being ruined by its managers in Chicago."
Is there a meme in there?
PeckedToDeathByDucks (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 11:53 am
Angry Saver..thanks for that reply. She takes the Fed middleman out of the picture and with that the debt disappears. She then takes it a step further by taking it down to the State level. Hence a huge baggage of corruption is dumped.
Some communities are now taking it to the town level. Printing their own vouchers. Disintermediation seems to be the answer. Think of all the G-8 dinner & travel money that would be saved.
Direct creation of credit by the Fed to the consumer is the mid to long term future IMHO, assuming we have a mid to long term future.
the fed will move to shut down any such attemot to difuse its power. Her solution does nothing but insert another middleman into the process to collect rents which ahve to come from somewhere. IF this was such a no brainer then it would ahve been done already. Her solution is apparently no different from timmy in that it is too little ledning that is happening. While one cant blame her for wanting to usurp some of the commerical banking rents, the ABA will not be happy. This isn;t a solution it is a legalese too clever by half logic. Good read, but what is clear is she doesn;t uinderstand the problem.
Deflation not so simple: Paul Mylchreest on the Inflation-Deflation debate
http://www.toobigtobail.com/?p=51
It's hard to say what impact the swine flu will have. Last week the WHO said the UK could see 100,000 new cases per day by the end of August.
Citizen AllenM knows all...he comes from Phoenix....I see first hand the shortages.....I have been a certificated firearms ( I hate the term expert ) owner for well over 25 years.....
There are major shortages...I get a kick out of these its a "mentality"...some people are so slow, those are the ones we need to watch out for the slow thinkers......you know the kudlow types.
Tell a politician about a problem and he or she will derive a way government can fix it.
Tell a Wall Streeter about a problem and he or she will derive a way to profit from it.
good articles... Interesting Finance & Economic articles
The problem with problems is sometimes solutions become worse problems than the original problems.
Re: Last week the WHO said the UK could see 100,000 new cases per day by the end of August.
That tends to add up when there is no cure...
shill that email is way out there.... borders on lunacy....
Doc Holiday - what is the definition of obese.... per the BMI I'm obese... 210# at 6'-2.5".... (i work out daily)
or adults, overweight and obesity ranges are determined by using weight and height to calculate a number called the "body mass index" (BMI). BMI is used because, for most people, it correlates with their amount of body fat.
An adult who has a BMI between 25 and 29.9 is considered overweight.
An adult who has a BMI of 30 or higher is considered obese.
I think everyone is over weight by the index:
Healthy Weight: Assessing Your Weight: BMI: Adult BMI Calculator: English | DNPAO | CDC
Cut out fruit juices and salt!
I stand corrected... I'm just overweight...
Run the calcs on the fight cards for the upcoming UFC UFC® : Ultimate Fighting Championship® - Upcoming Events
Most are overweight.... LOL!
Your BMI is 27, indicating your weight is in the Overweight category for adults of your height.
People who are overweight or obese are at higher risk for chronic conditions such as high blood pressure, diabetes, and high cholesterol.
Last I checked my BP was 90-60...
Scrooge McDuck,
Don't forget all the charities and public food banks as well. There is very little need to be responsible in America. Everybody rides for free! Those who cry the loudest gets the biggest tit!
I mentioned free summer lunch for school kids the other day. They also got free stimulus money that is not going to produce a job but cost more taxes. Obamanomics.
http://www.nptelegraph.com/articles/2009/07/09/news/50002424.txt
Re: "money that is not going to produce a job but cost more taxes."
Oh come on, jobs will be created, I mean saved in the food service industry across the spectrum, like from the lunchline ladies to the people that add salt and sugar to the cans of nutritionally deprived crap that is served to the little oinkers. This is The American dream, to have unlimited amounts of junk food for free!
Those who cry the loudest gets the biggest tit!
Putting in your bid?
Nope well off. I want less government and more freedom.
I see a CRE metaphor here with ticking bombs and food and now this:
Experts believe the dolphins and their young - which gather in groups called pods - were hunting a huge "bait ball" of small fish in warmer UK waters.
Dolphin superpod spotted off British coast - The Daily Record
Shill: We went through the same thing in the summer of 1994 when Congress was debating the crime bill. Conservatives were convinced that the evil Bill Clinton was going to take away all our guns, so they were buying up like crazy. I know this, because I was shopping for a handgun myself. I had to put an order in and wait a few weeks for it to arrive because demand was so high. If memory serves me correctly, the Brady Bill was decoupled from the Crime Bill itself. Don't recall if it passed, but the hysteria seemed to pass after a while.
When i see Bernake now, i get this picture of Don Knotts playing a Mr. Limpet character being played by the channeling of jerry Lewis... trying to be the Dr. Kavorkian of the economy, yet for some bumbling reasons just cant kill it off , more like Chevy Chase in European Vacation and he keeps running over Eric Idol.....
nades"
"Last I checked my BP was 90-60..."
Havent we told you about taking Viagra while taking Nitrates for chest pains, as this may result in an..........
BMI isn't a valuable indicator of health for muscular athletes. Use calipers if you're really trying to monitor your body fat.
The obesity epidemic in this country has serious consequences for our financial future. If we don't change our ways or find some sort of cure, there simply won't be enough medical resources in this country to take care of this number of unhealthy people as they age, irrespective of how our medical system is funded. How we got here is no surprise: The food industry makes more profit from pushing cheap, satisfying foods which, by default, will proportionally have more carbohydrates and fats and salt than we were ever meant to consume. This will only get worse as the population expands and protein rich foods become more scarce. It's not a calorie crisis, but a nutritional crisis that we're going through.
I treat my personal health like an investment; I spend more on healthy foods and exercise than most people would feel comfortable with. In the end, it's a lot cheaper than a heart attack and I enjoy the exercise!
"W"
Two dips in that letter, just like a roller-coaster.
excuuuuseeee meeeeeee!!!!!!
what a screed.......guys who ARE the gov't. are loading up on heavier artillery because they are afraid of.....themselves? I don't think so. Afraid maybe that the system is screwed, and they want to keep their positions of power if things get bad.....but other than that, this is nothing more than the usual OMG, the (insert favorite out-group) are getting uppity, we must do something to protect our kids & womenvolk. Machine guns for everyone....that'll keep the factories busy