Sales fell at many U.S. apparel retailers and warehouse club stores in June as the weak economy and cool, rainy weather dashed interest in summer shopping for consumers across the country.
Wet Seal Inc posted an 11.1 percent same-store sales drop, worse than expected, and said it would take a conservative stand with inventory for the back-to-school shopping season.
What does it mean when a store called "Wet Seal Inc." does poorly during a rainy month?
Oh, and because I would have been Pigged™ on the last thread:
This is a technical recovery only.
Well, yeah.
AA has already kicked off 2Q earnings season but, more importantly, the last of the S&P 500 stragglers just reported 1Q earnings.
Bottom-line net 1Q earnings (for the entire 500!) were a whopping $7.54, bringing trailing 12-month net earnings all the way up to ... $6.88.
But never fear: based on always-accurate analyst estimates, full-year '09 earnings are expected to stage a monster recovery to $28.65. Let's give that a bear-market multiple of 12 and ... let's see, carry the 3 ... umm ... uh-oh.
OK. Hey ... let's just use so-called "operating earnings" (i.e. Earnings Before Bad Stuff). By that measure, the S&P is expected to pump out $55.61 for FY09. And when we put a 12 multiple on that, it gives us ... err ... hmm, my calculator says '667'.
Six sixty-seven? That can't be right. I was promised a pony, dammit!
"As a reminder, when looking at this report, I'd focus on the 4-week moving average of initial claims, not continued claims."
Of course, the chart shows fairly convincingly that the two ought to track each other, at least in most of the "normal" recessions. The two times when they failed to track (with CC continuing to rise while IC flattened) were 1975 (and how'd the next 7 years go after that?) and 2001 (same question!).
This suggests that the failure of continuing claims to show any hint of a peak is an indicator that (a) initial claims haven't truly peaked yet (the case in 2001) or (b) the recovery will not be healthy.
But we already surmise that the economy isn't fundamentally healthy so the recovery will be painful.
Anyone know what the exhaustion rate looked like this week? And from the release:
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 577,506 in the week ending July 4, an increase of 17,612 from the previous week. There were 401,672 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.
@Mook: We already had 667, so we're done with that bearish bad stuff, right??? right???
it will be an interesting question how long companies can pretend that operating earnings are real and the "one time" bad stuff doesn't count. How many "kitchen sink" mulligan quarters can you take and still claim that you're par for the course? (Or rather, how many hits against cash before you can't cash-flow your way through the Great Recession?)
I don't have much hope for investors waking up to the difference on their own, though.
"I do not like the idea of any kind of a plan involving the government where Wall Street makes a lot of money. My plan provided that they would make no money whatsoever, and the American public would make the money."
Tee-hee. Buffett's obviously having flashbacks to the days when "government" and "Wall Street" were separate entities. What a quaint old-fashioned notion!
Why doesn't Buffett increase his own spending. It's not like he will ever run out of money. Seriously. We have a distribution problem. All these handouts to people with a high propensity to save (the wealthy) are idiotic.
Being newly unemployed is not emotionally satisfying, usually. Also.
So, I can't imagine standing in line at the state unemployment office a couple days before the Friday holiday to get my claim in promptly. Talk about a holiday karma destroyer. I'd bet those that enjoy going to the DMV for license renewal were the selective clientele for last week's claim filing.
If you believe in the 17-year 7 month long business/market half-cycle, the dates go like this:
1929.67 (August 1929 was peak of business, IIRC. Start of secular bear.)
1947.25 (beginning of boom after postwar recession...)
1964.83 (peak of market, start of secular bear)
1982.42 (end of the long 1970s secular bear)
2000.00 (start of the current secular bear)
2017.58 (July 2017 looks like the natural end of the current secular bear...)
The 565K initial claims would be a total break in the data. It's averaged 629K over the last 4 months and never got lower than 601K in that period.
There was a 44K break from the 660K range down to 610ish back in early April. But I'll need another week of data to conclude this is a similar move. The model for ICs has been having trouble with this whole period, so it's not a stretch to think it totally screwed up the short week adjustment.
Is the distressing gap between the red and blue lines evidence of the "jobless recovery" ? Is it normal for continued claims to so far outpace initial claims? In previous recessions the red and blue lines seemed to stay pretty tracked together.
Is jobless recovery an oxymoron?
serious questions from a seriously under-informed lurker.
The drop resulted partly from technical factors, a department analyst said. Auto layoffs that normally take place in early July, as factories are retooled to build the next year's models, occurred in the spring instead as General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC implemented sweeping restructuring plans.
The department's seasonal adjustment process expected a large increase in claims from auto workers and other manufacturing workers, the analyst said. Since that didn't occur, seasonally-adjusted claims fell.
Yawn. Wake me up when he returns his share of candy and viagra.
RE: 4.5 million UE more than 27 weeks.
Even the talking heads financial types were pushing 6 months cushion for people. Even that appears to be nowhere near enough. These people will be years digging themselves out. What doesn't add up is GDP. This many off the rolls for so long should have had a huge multiplier effect in consumer spending reductions. Lots of questions.
How many "kitchen sink" mulligan quarters can you take and still claim that you're par for the course? (Or rather, how many hits against cash before you can't cash-flow your way through the Great Recession?)
You might have noticed, as I have, that S&P publishes every piece of data under the sun for the individual components of its hallowed index ... except free cash flow.
You have to navigate to the "Index-Level Fundamentals" page of their web site to even get a composite roll-up of FCF.
And, hey, what's that I see there? And why does it have that funny dash in front of it?
The Bernanke/Geithner plan is to keep the host alive but not healthy. In this way, the host will believe it needs the parasites to survive. And, of course, parasites (rentier group) can continue to maintain their oversized grip on the eCONomy.
What a system. I say let the free market sort it out. It's the only fair way.
Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 8:15 am
mook,
i wonder if the wizards BH will go down with comments like those... americans/ stock holders make money wall street has too....
When there is no more cream to skim from the milk, the skimmers will have no options but to steal from each other. Can't insert yourself between productive exchanges if there are far fewer productive transactions happening. Competition will be fierce for the remaining real economy investments and the houses will have no choice but to turn on each other to make up the deficiency. That's when things will get really interesting. The market for banksters is oversupplied relative to the available capital flows.
I don't understand the disconnect either, but even the Fed statements indicate, perhaps with a little self-reflection and maybe (if I squint real hard, chagrin and bitter irony) that GDP goes positive when the inventories are finally purged out, from an accounting perspective, irrespective of the net-revenue.
On the topic of earnings, weren't the Alcoa bottom line results mostly due to slashing costs? If so, is that indicative of real health?
from Forbes...
"Alcoa said it hit two-thirds of its savings target with $1.0 billion in procurement savings through the first half of the year and that its reduced cost base will help it withstand current industry weakness."
Doesn't sound like they're gearing up for a strong recovery to me.
This many off the rolls for so long should have had a huge multiplier effect in consumer spending reductions. Lots of questions.
Rob Dawg,
I attribute it to debt and a narrowing distribution. That type of borrowed GDP growth is now rolling over. GDP is now negative in nominal terms. And net credit growth has hit the wall. That's really bad for a credit money system.
bh,
Agreed. And for the record, I don't see any conspiracies here. The old metrics just aren't tracking the new realities. Could it be that people have so much access to credit that employment issues are papered over with new debt and not reduced consumption? Are these the people still tapping equity for short term? Maybe employed people are massively reducing debt and this smaller group is increasing debt thus masking a huge credit contraction at least for a while. Too many questions.
This is the problem I have with among other things, accelerated depcreciation and other tax tweaks ad infintium--I'm not against some narrow "stimulative" targeting, but they always amount to quasi-permanent giimicks to improve quarterlies, earnings, and continue to loot companies by their officers based on better-than-expected results. We'd have to see at least 3 years of financial statements to finally uncover "true" revenue or lack--and that assumes no modifications in accounting rules, taxes, and other for-plunder modifications.
We'd have to see at least 3 years of financial statements to finally uncover "true" revenue or lack--and that assumes no modifications in accounting rules, taxes, and other for-plunder modifications.
Why bother? Show that you love America and buy the damn stock already.
A possible reason consumption hasnt fallen as much as might be expected based on UE. Lots of households are now based on two income earners and the one who was recently laid off thinks they will be able to join the work force at the same pay scale soon... (they might for all I know)
I mean I do understand at some level "in principle" since inventory is understood as a Liability on the Debit-side of the column, so "in principle" less liability equals revenue on the bottom line...but if you purge inventory until you cannot purge anymore inventory, and then you lay-off your other liabilities (employees), you have not invented a perfect business that is always revenue positive.
The proof in the pudding (careful, it looks like pudding, but isn't) is whether or not companies can buy on credit more inventory, and then sell that inventory for a profit, over the next few years. And I'd say in a decade-long reduced-demand environment, 1 out of 3 business may survive, with the other two folding. And I think this will happen much more quickly than is assumed by many. There is that defining moment when you get less or no credit to buy less inventory that you sell to fewer people for a reduced cost.
nades (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 6:30 am
A possible reason consumption hasnt fallen as much as might be expected based on UE. Lots of households are now based on two income earners and the one who was recently laid off thinks they will be able to join the work force at the same pay scale soon... (they might for all I know)
Look at the first St. Louis Fed graph Angry Saver posted: St. Louis Fed: Series: UEMP27OV, Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over
While you are probably right about one lay off in a two earner household might only look like 1/2 a layoff in past recessions* the persistence of those periods of UE hint that they can't get comparable employment.
Takes a few defaulted mortgage payments and getting the lights and water cut-off to realize that you may have to settle for filling out that mickie d's application which you are so overly qualified for...
Isn't it possible that initial claims declined because there were less eligible workers? Here is an example from Massachusetts:
"Initial eligibility for benefits is based on your earnings and the reason for separation from your employment.
You must have earned at least $3,500 during a period of time specified by law and at least 30 times the amount you would be eligible to collect weekly in UI benefits."
"US carmaker General Motors recently reported that its sales in China rose 38% in the first half of this year, while Ford's sales in China increased 14% over the same period."
....that's why globalization is so well loved - much more cream to skim from the bigger herd.
bh,
Speaking of eating appendages. Has anyone been looking at the bulk transport components of the transportation sector? They are all mothballing capacity; dry shipping, container, rail, trucking.
Lately the DJT has looked like a 2xDJI. Not a good sign.
Again, there will be no recovery. This doesn't mean "the economy" in the abstract can't or won't recover, just that the present economy that we have known it isn't coming back. Our best case is that something which sucks less replaces it. Our worst case is that the vampires successfully kill off emerging threats to their hegemony and ever-declining real capital.
Initial claims for unemployment dropped by a much bigger than expected 52,000 in the last week to 565,000, the lowest level so far this year. This brought the four week average down by 10,000 to 606,000. With out a doubt this is good news, but before we break out the bubbly, remember that this was a holiday shortened week. I would wait at least another week to see if this looks real. Still the four week average is now a full quarter past its peak and 52,750 below it. Historically peaks in the four week average have been associated with the official ends of recessions. As the graph below shows (From Blogger: Page not found we are both far enough past and far enough below the apparent peak that it looks unlikely that it is a false peak. Historically, false peaks have been rare (there were two small potential ones in the early 1980’s cycle, but much smaller and shorter than the current decline) so I think that it is unlikely at this point that we go on to make fresh highs. Now the big question will be, does the correlation between the peak in the series and the end of recessions continue to hold. It also seems likely to me that the path on initial claims going forward will more closely resemble that of the last two recessions than earlier ones, remaining elevated but below the technical peak for a very extended time and falling only gradually, rather than a precipitous drop.
The news on continuing claims was not as good. They rose to 6.883 million, an increase of 159,000 and a new record. Some confirmation in the continuing claims data would make me more confident in the initial claims green shoot. So far we are not seeing it, and any recent declines in continuing claims have either been revised away or simply reversed and the old peak exceeded. In absolute terms the level of continuing claims just blows away any previous peak, like the mid 1970’s and the early 1980’s. The population and the workforce have both grown since then, so as a percentage of the covered workforce, we are actually slightly below the early 1980’s level (5.1% vs. 5.4%) and well below the mid-1970’s level (7.0%). On the other hand, continuing claims are still rising, so it is possible that we will take out the early 1980’s peak, but it seems unlikely that we will get above the 7.0% level to set a new record.
So what does falling new claims and rising continuing claims say? To me it says that the duration on unemployment is going to continue to increase. Last month, the median time the unemployed were out of work increased by three full weeks in a single month. The pace of layoffs has slowed, but the pace of new hiring is still very low. Half of all the people out of work have been looking for a new job for more than 17.9 weeks. Over 30% have exhausted their regular unemployment benefit (out of work more than 26 weeks) and are either on the extended benefits or are totally without income. Unless they have investments (i.e. borrow against or drain the 401-K) or equity in their houses, they will have to fall back on credit cards to survive. When those get maxed out, well American Express (AXP), Capitol One (COF) or J.P. Morgan (JPM) will just be out of luck since the people will default or file for bankruptcy. As for the long term unemployed, their financial position is likely to be permanently damaged. Their retirements are likely to be significantly different than they had envisioned, and their kids college plans may have to be altered. The effects of the Great Recession will echo for years to come.
Scary thought. What if our current 8%±1% UE is the new normal? It has been that way in Europe for a long time and lets face it. We are fast tracking to become a lot more like them in many respects.
The European countries that have an 8% UE are also the ones who generally have a 32 hour work week. That would equal an even higher UE number based on hours of employment.
I received news in the past week that my sister-in-law and a friend were moving from rotating layoffs to permanent. Looking at the job boards, things are getting worse.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 6:57 am
reply ignore user
The European countries that have an 8% UE are also the ones who generally have a 32 hour work week. That would equal an even higher UE number based on hours of employment.
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:54 am
"But on your next restock you buy cheaper substitute goods... store brands and generics... instead of the name brands."
I still think GE is a ticking time bomb in a deflationary environment.
GE has net tangible assets of $8 billion, debt > than $500 billion, and a net quick of negative $150 billion (now you see the need for alphabet soup).
That's bad, but it gets worse. GE is carrying $82 billion in goodwill (10x net tangible assets).
A few weeks ago I watched former GE CEO Jack Welch on CNBC. He claimed Bernanke was a national hero. No joke. Given that GE has been thrown a huge lifeline by the fed, it's easy to understand Welch's views.
Welch deserves the Greenspan treatment in my book - genius to idiot in the public's eye. The man is a sham, the product of a bubble.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:57 am
"But on your next restock you buy cheaper substitute goods... store brands and generics... instead of the name brands."
.....and the next step-down from THAT is what?
__
Don't worry, BSR -- Rob Dawg will send the recipe for roast squirrel with slug and sawdust stuffing.
"I'd focus on the 4-week moving average of initial claims, not continued claims."
I really dont understand why. I guess it depends on what you are looking for. I suppose if you are looking for slowing worsening, then that would be a good thing to look at. Seems to me that during normal periods (when some of those that are actually unemployed get re-employed), the quoted statement would make sense. With the re-employment rate is so low, continued claims (along with those dropping off to extended UE benefits) would seem to be the thing to watch if you were looking for a recovery.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is on track to beat its 2007 trading-revenue record, enabling it to boost compensation by an estimated 64 percent from last year,
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:14 am reply Ignore user Why doesn't Buffett increase his own spending
AS,
While i admire what Buffet has done, he is one of the machines biggest hypocrites. He says he supports wealty individuals paying higher taxes and believes in higher taxes on estates, then turns around and donates his so his heirs dont have to pay taxes....
Wisdom,
Does that 17 yr 7 month cycle fall in on the square of nine theory?
This is why scare numbers work so well in America nothing to compare to or just leave out a very important qualifying element. Deception is always on the table. Proves once again Most Americans are not smart enough to be mad. Time for a bowl of green shoots for breakfast!
"Scary thought. What if our current 8%±1% UE is the new normal?"
You just thought of this?
So what are we to do with all those permanently unemployed/underemployed bachelor's degree holders? (and master's degree holders?) How do you tell them that there not only isn't any place for them in the new economy, but there may never be?
Failure to advance in American society is usually hushed up, or thought to be an individual failing. Failure to advance on a massive scale - that's kind of hard to dismiss.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 10:07 am
Sawdust? You got sawdust? In my day we were so poor we had to substitute cheap fillers for sawdust.
__
Ah ... fond memories of childhood: nothing like cheap fillers to top off fire-grilled chunks of one's own spleen!
@ mal (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 7:08 am
Failure to advance on a massive scale - that's kind of hard to dismiss.
Great point and this is what should have 98% of Americans shitting bricks and recalibrating their dreams.....but most are still living in yesterdays American dream
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:27 am reply Ignore user bh,
Agreed. And for the record, I don't see any conspiracies here. The old metrics just aren't tracking the new realities. Could it be that people have so much access to credit that employment issues are papered over with new debt and not reduced consumption
RD,
But the reduction in credit/debt numbers that came out this week?????
We have an economy based mostly on taking a cut based on the amount of sludge that flows through the pipes, and very little based on ensuring material flows through those pipes. 10% of nothing is nothing. The miracle of the service economy.
"Failure to advance in American society is usually hushed up, or thought to be an individual failing."
.....that's why the "older" previously high-income are "over-qualified" and easily, eventually shunted to the "Discouraged Worker" category.....raising cattle, driving herds of chickens, and watering gardens.
BTW, good day yesterday for the Food Banks: 24-lbs zuchinni, 12-lbs pickling cucumbers, 24.4-lbs armenian cukes, 8-oz tomatoes, 8-oz bell peppers.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:52 am reply Ignore user Scary thought. What if our current 8%±1% UE is the new normal?
It probably should be: The dot com employed a lot of non producers and corrected, many of these started euntrapanuer franchises etc during the housing boom staffed with more unqualified service workers.. opened their own "shops" in the village squares selling shit to friends with HELOC money...
Maybe we are just correcting everything to the norm, employment, credit, loan standards... maybe it is going where it should, and some people including DC are trying to anchor in an outgoing tide...
Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 7:17 am
RD,
But the reduction in credit/debt numbers that came out this week?????
That's exactly the point. We could be seeing some people aggressively reducing outstanding debt. That makes sense with all the ultra-low offers disappearing we ccard arbitragers (worker bees and ants) are just paying it off rather than putting up wit the rates/restrictions nonsense. At the same time it may be that other people (grasshoppers and mayflies) are using debt to maintain consumer spending. IOW it may be that the aggregate data is hiding underlying trends.
"Maybe we are just correcting everything to the norm, employment, credit, loan standards... maybe it is going where it should, and some people including DC are trying to anchor in an outgoing tide..."
So insecurity is normal? That would change everything.
Well its Thursday, another day circling the drain watching America try to stay afloat. Any chance of more BFT tonight or will we have to wait for BFF tomorrow?
For what its worth my bro in law was laid off over a year ago (on extended benifits) in ATL and has been collecting the GA max of 297 a week. His wife is a non degreed parapro so she doesnt make anything. Lucky the old house payment is low, 10 months ago they had 8K in savings and have managed to only be at 3K now... he is getting no hits and refuses to go get employed at lowes or anything like that (course they might not be hiring) but he is waiting for the 6th repetative send resume same job to be the charm i guess...
not next week thoughthey will be heading to Amelia Island for a week to a friends condo...
They have probably 8 CCards with 15 K limit on them and i cautioned him early on not to use them and def not use them for groceries or gas as it sends up a flag ..so far they havent tapped em..
All I have to say is My fellow Americans...keep up the good work!...stop spending remember we are 70% of our GDP...stop the thieves in Washington, and keep asking where is the $12 trillion.
Ahh. There's my 5 handle on oil. Now we can afford fertilizer for our withering green shoots. Seriously, this is a good thing. Besides the obvious I'm also looking out at long term contracts and see a lot of irresponsible speculators who are going to get creamed. And this is on topic. Employers need stable business expectations before they risk hiring. Wild swings and unexpected expenses are antithetical to jobs growth.
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 10:36 am reply Ignore user Hello Elmo..
keep asking where is the $12 trillion.
no no you dont get it, doesnt matter if there is or isnt 12 Trillion, we have 12 in stuff we need because of 8 year s of inseert name here... nothing to do with campaign contributors, or friends or relationships... its about fixing all those insert party /name here, irresponsible decisions...blah blah... we have only had 6 months, give us a chance and quit asking resonsible qustions
Yes, as Black Star Ranch points out it was a 4 day work week. The average state worker can only process 80% of the claims as compared to a standard work week.
Another example of how to mislead with statistics.
Having worked for a prestigious state university, I can tell you it is probably less than 80% of normal claims.
Those with seniority take vacation days regardless of the work load. They work the supervisors to dump the work on the new people to facilitate vacation approval... State employment is a crony system after all...Then the new people get fed up and call in sick on the 3rd...
So our optimum production on a holiday week is 80%, our real production, some what less...
The divergence between initial claims and continued claims seems to me to be nothing more than the inevitable result of enacting a public policy which extends the number of weeks one can collect unemployment.
Look for this to be yet another short-lived "record".
....there's always an UP adjustment on a short week, kids......get back to your seats, now...........class,...........CLASS.........
June rains, penny pinching dampen U.S. retail sales
Sales fell at many U.S. apparel retailers and warehouse club stores in June as the weak economy and cool, rainy weather dashed interest in summer shopping for consumers across the country.
Wet Seal Inc posted an 11.1 percent same-store sales drop, worse than expected, and said it would take a conservative stand with inventory for the back-to-school shopping season.
What does it mean when a store called "Wet Seal Inc." does poorly during a rainy month?
What does it mean when a store called "Wet Seal Inc." does poorly during a rainy month?
That a hard rain is gonna fall?
Oh, and because I would have been Pigged™ on the last thread:
This is a technical recovery only.
Well, yeah.
AA has already kicked off 2Q earnings season but, more importantly, the last of the S&P 500 stragglers just reported 1Q earnings.
Bottom-line net 1Q earnings (for the entire 500!) were a whopping $7.54, bringing trailing 12-month net earnings all the way up to ... $6.88.
But never fear: based on always-accurate analyst estimates, full-year '09 earnings are expected to stage a monster recovery to $28.65. Let's give that a bear-market multiple of 12 and ... let's see, carry the 3 ... umm ... uh-oh.
OK. Hey ... let's just use so-called "operating earnings" (i.e. Earnings Before Bad Stuff). By that measure, the S&P is expected to pump out $55.61 for FY09. And when we put a 12 multiple on that, it gives us ... err ... hmm, my calculator says '667'.
Six sixty-seven? That can't be right. I was promised a pony, dammit!
"As a reminder, when looking at this report, I'd focus on the 4-week moving average of initial claims, not continued claims."
Of course, the chart shows fairly convincingly that the two ought to track each other, at least in most of the "normal" recessions. The two times when they failed to track (with CC continuing to rise while IC flattened) were 1975 (and how'd the next 7 years go after that?) and 2001 (same question!).
This suggests that the failure of continuing claims to show any hint of a peak is an indicator that (a) initial claims haven't truly peaked yet (the case in 2001) or (b) the recovery will not be healthy.
But we already surmise that the economy isn't fundamentally healthy so the recovery will be painful.
Quick get some fertilizer for those green shoots aren't totally dead yet!
Anyone know what the exhaustion rate looked like this week? And from the release
:
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 577,506 in the week ending July 4, an increase of 17,612 from the previous week. There were 401,672 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.
Buffett Backs Second Stimulus
The Legendary Investor Is Critical of the First Stimulus Package, Comparing It to Viagra and Candy
Warren Buffet Supports Second Stimulus for Economy - ABC News
The sooner this recession ends, the sooner the depression can begin! That has to be worth some green shoots.
if at first you dont succeed spend, spend again....
when looking at this report, I'd focus on the 4-week moving average of initial claims, not continued claims. - CR
A valid point, but it's the longer term trends that worry me. Especially with all that debt folks piled up!
St. Louis Fed: Series: UEMP27OV, Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over
St. Louis Fed: Series: UEMPMED, Median Duration of Unemployment
record
St. Louis Fed: Series: AWHI, Aggregate Weekly Hours Index: Total Private Industries
St. Louis Fed: Series: AWHNONAG, Average Weekly Hours: Total Private Industries
Buffett Backs Second Stimulus
The Legendary Investor Is Critical of the First Stimulus Package, Comparing It to Viagra and Candy
At his age those the two things you would think he would find enjoyable.
@Mook: We already had 667, so we're done with that bearish bad stuff, right??? right???
it will be an interesting question how long companies can pretend that operating earnings are real and the "one time" bad stuff doesn't count. How many "kitchen sink" mulligan quarters can you take and still claim that you're par for the course? (Or rather, how many hits against cash before you can't cash-flow your way through the Great Recession?)
I don't have much hope for investors waking up to the difference on their own, though.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 8:08 am
when looking at this report, I'd focus on the 4-week moving average of initial claims, not continued claims. - CR
A valid point, but It's the longer term trends that worry me. Especially with all that debt folks piled up!
We're gonna party like it's nineteen-twenty-nine!
Nova,
candy qualified for Warren - arm candy
Here's a Buffett quote from the linked article:
"I do not like the idea of any kind of a plan involving the government where Wall Street makes a lot of money. My plan provided that they would make no money whatsoever, and the American public would make the money."
Tee-hee. Buffett's obviously having flashbacks to the days when "government" and "Wall Street" were separate entities. What a quaint old-fashioned notion!
first stimulating didnt work, was like viagra? need second stimulating.....
lord i dont look forward to getting old when a first attempt at stimulus on viagra doesnt work
Why doesn't Buffett increase his own spending. It's not like he will ever run out of money. Seriously. We have a distribution problem. All these handouts to people with a high propensity to save (the wealthy) are idiotic.
What we need isn't the occasional stimulus but a continuous IV drip.
mook,
i wonder if the wizards BH will go down with comments like those... americans/ stock holders make money wall street has too....
Being newly unemployed is not emotionally satisfying, usually. Also.
So, I can't imagine standing in line at the state unemployment office a couple days before the Friday holiday to get my claim in promptly. Talk about a holiday karma destroyer. I'd bet those that enjoy going to the DMV for license renewal were the selective clientele for last week's claim filing.
If you believe in the 17-year 7 month long business/market half-cycle, the dates go like this:
1929.67 (August 1929 was peak of business, IIRC. Start of secular bear.)
1947.25 (beginning of boom after postwar recession...)
1964.83 (peak of market, start of secular bear)
1982.42 (end of the long 1970s secular bear)
2000.00 (start of the current secular bear)
2017.58 (July 2017 looks like the natural end of the current secular bear...)
RATM - nice catch on the unadjusted data.
The 565K initial claims would be a total break in the data. It's averaged 629K over the last 4 months and never got lower than 601K in that period.
There was a 44K break from the 660K range down to 610ish back in early April. But I'll need another week of data to conclude this is a similar move. The model for ICs has been having trouble with this whole period, so it's not a stretch to think it totally screwed up the short week adjustment.
Is the distressing gap between the red and blue lines evidence of the "jobless recovery" ? Is it normal for continued claims to so far outpace initial claims? In previous recessions the red and blue lines seemed to stay pretty tracked together.
Is jobless recovery an oxymoron?
serious questions from a seriously under-informed lurker.
thanks!
From CNBC:
The drop resulted partly from technical factors, a department analyst said. Auto layoffs that normally take place in early July, as factories are retooled to build the next year's models, occurred in the spring instead as General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC implemented sweeping restructuring plans.
The department's seasonal adjustment process expected a large increase in claims from auto workers and other manufacturing workers, the analyst said. Since that didn't occur, seasonally-adjusted claims fell.
Wisdom Speaker,
Excellent point. I'd like CR to comment on the distressing gap between continuing and 4-week moving averge.
CR,
Thank you as always.
--bh
RE: Buffet
Yawn. Wake me up when he returns his share of candy and viagra.
RE: 4.5 million UE more than 27 weeks.
Even the talking heads financial types were pushing 6 months cushion for people. Even that appears to be nowhere near enough. These people will be years digging themselves out. What doesn't add up is GDP. This many off the rolls for so long should have had a huge multiplier effect in consumer spending reductions. Lots of questions.
How many "kitchen sink" mulligan quarters can you take and still claim that you're par for the course? (Or rather, how many hits against cash before you can't cash-flow your way through the Great Recession?)
You might have noticed, as I have, that S&P publishes every piece of data under the sun for the individual components of its hallowed index ... except free cash flow.
You have to navigate to the "Index-Level Fundamentals" page of their web site to even get a composite roll-up of FCF.
And, hey, what's that I see there? And why does it have that funny dash in front of it?
Price to Free Cash Flow:
1Q2009 -632.032
The Bernanke/Geithner plan is to keep the host alive but not healthy. In this way, the host will believe it needs the parasites to survive. And, of course, parasites (rentier group) can continue to maintain their oversized grip on the eCONomy.
What a system. I say let the free market sort it out. It's the only fair way.
Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 8:15 am
mook,
i wonder if the wizards BH will go down with comments like those... americans/ stock holders make money wall street has too....
When there is no more cream to skim from the milk, the skimmers will have no options but to steal from each other. Can't insert yourself between productive exchanges if there are far fewer productive transactions happening. Competition will be fierce for the remaining real economy investments and the houses will have no choice but to turn on each other to make up the deficiency. That's when things will get really interesting. The market for banksters is oversupplied relative to the available capital flows.
RD,
I don't understand the disconnect either, but even the Fed statements indicate, perhaps with a little self-reflection and maybe (if I squint real hard, chagrin and bitter irony) that GDP goes positive when the inventories are finally purged out, from an accounting perspective, irrespective of the net-revenue.
I don't frickin understand.
--bh
On the topic of earnings, weren't the Alcoa bottom line results mostly due to slashing costs? If so, is that indicative of real health?
from Forbes...
"Alcoa said it hit two-thirds of its savings target with $1.0 billion in procurement savings through the first half of the year and that its reduced cost base will help it withstand current industry weakness."
Doesn't sound like they're gearing up for a strong recovery to me.
CNBC is telling me that my government hired "professional money managers."
And this is a "milestone event."
It is; the end of an empire. The looting continues.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 8:19 am
What a system. I say let the free market sort it out. It's the only fair way.
It will. You can only defy economic reality for so long and only so long as OPM is still available.
mook-
excellent comments.
you are dating yourself with the FCF though
Mook good write ups... thanks for that... (I like reading but hate doing equity analysis...)
((or what nullpointer just said...
))
This many off the rolls for so long should have had a huge multiplier effect in consumer spending reductions. Lots of questions.
Rob Dawg,
I attribute it to debt and a narrowing distribution. That type of borrowed GDP growth is now rolling over. GDP is now negative in nominal terms. And net credit growth has hit the wall. That's really bad for a credit money system.
bh,
Agreed. And for the record, I don't see any conspiracies here. The old metrics just aren't tracking the new realities. Could it be that people have so much access to credit that employment issues are papered over with new debt and not reduced consumption? Are these the people still tapping equity for short term? Maybe employed people are massively reducing debt and this smaller group is increasing debt thus masking a huge credit contraction at least for a while. Too many questions.
Chainsaw,
This is the problem I have with among other things, accelerated depcreciation and other tax tweaks ad infintium--I'm not against some narrow "stimulative" targeting, but they always amount to quasi-permanent giimicks to improve quarterlies, earnings, and continue to loot companies by their officers based on better-than-expected results. We'd have to see at least 3 years of financial statements to finally uncover "true" revenue or lack--and that assumes no modifications in accounting rules, taxes, and other for-plunder modifications.
--bh
CNBC is telling me that my government hired "professional money managers."
The same professional money mismanagers that underperformed treasuries for the last 40 years and steered us to financial collapse! Oh joy!
We'd have to see at least 3 years of financial statements to finally uncover "true" revenue or lack--and that assumes no modifications in accounting rules, taxes, and other for-plunder modifications.
Why bother? Show that you love America and buy the damn stock already.
A possible reason consumption hasnt fallen as much as might be expected based on UE. Lots of households are now based on two income earners and the one who was recently laid off thinks they will be able to join the work force at the same pay scale soon... (they might for all I know)
Just my two cents...
Green shoots? absolutely ...
The government has an endless supply of fleeting 'green shoots' to lipstick a sagging market. That is, until the next aftershock.
'Green shoots' = code for "Goldman Sachs"? ... you know, the people who really matter ...?
LOL! I was cracking up at your "homedad43's kids hate america" the other day... LMAO at that one...
Bloomberg is fun to watch for a good thirty minutes if you have severe ADD....
Mook,
can't you back out the 'free cash flow" if they publish dense enough data there's got to be a way, no?
RD,
I mean I do understand at some level "in principle" since inventory is understood as a Liability on the Debit-side of the column, so "in principle" less liability equals revenue on the bottom line...but if you purge inventory until you cannot purge anymore inventory, and then you lay-off your other liabilities (employees), you have not invented a perfect business that is always revenue positive.
The proof in the pudding (careful, it looks like pudding, but isn't) is whether or not companies can buy on credit more inventory, and then sell that inventory for a profit, over the next few years. And I'd say in a decade-long reduced-demand environment, 1 out of 3 business may survive, with the other two folding. And I think this will happen much more quickly than is assumed by many. There is that defining moment when you get less or no credit to buy less inventory that you sell to fewer people for a reduced cost.
You can only eat your own appendages once.
nades (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 6:30 am
A possible reason consumption hasnt fallen as much as might be expected based on UE. Lots of households are now based on two income earners and the one who was recently laid off thinks they will be able to join the work force at the same pay scale soon... (they might for all I know)
Look at the first St. Louis Fed graph Angry Saver posted:
St. Louis Fed: Series: UEMP27OV, Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over
While you are probably right about one lay off in a two earner household might only look like 1/2 a layoff in past recessions* the persistence of those periods of UE hint that they can't get comparable employment.
/hint that they can't get comparable employment/
correct
Underemployment is the new black.
Takes a few defaulted mortgage payments and getting the lights and water cut-off to realize that you may have to settle for filling out that mickie d's application which you are so overly qualified for...
--bh
RD thanks for re-posting that.... misted it the first time... f'in fugly... (and a hat tip to AS)
Despite trillions in investment:
1. Wages are deflating.
2. Unemployment continues to grow.
3. Underemployment is growing faster than unemployment.
China has a demand for cars why don't we export to them?
BBC NEWS | Business | China car sales continue to soar
Isn't it possible that initial claims declined because there were less eligible workers? Here is an example from Massachusetts:
"Initial eligibility for benefits is based on your earnings and the reason for separation from your employment.
You must have earned at least $3,500 during a period of time specified by law and at least 30 times the amount you would be eligible to collect weekly in UI benefits."
Understanding Eligibility Requirements
So... If a person found a job, then he/she lost it within few months, the person can't file UI...
"US carmaker General Motors recently reported that its sales in China rose 38% in the first half of this year, while Ford's sales in China increased 14% over the same period."
....that's why globalization is so well loved - much more cream to skim from the bigger herd.
bh,
Speaking of eating appendages. Has anyone been looking at the bulk transport components of the transportation sector? They are all mothballing capacity; dry shipping, container, rail, trucking.
Lately the DJT has looked like a 2xDJI. Not a good sign.
Again, there will be no recovery. This doesn't mean "the economy" in the abstract can't or won't recover, just that the present economy that we have known it isn't coming back. Our best case is that something which sucks less replaces it. Our worst case is that the vampires successfully kill off emerging threats to their hegemony and ever-declining real capital.
Here is what I will be posting on Zacks.com:
Initial claims for unemployment dropped by a much bigger than expected 52,000 in the last week to 565,000, the lowest level so far this year. This brought the four week average down by 10,000 to 606,000. With out a doubt this is good news, but before we break out the bubbly, remember that this was a holiday shortened week. I would wait at least another week to see if this looks real. Still the four week average is now a full quarter past its peak and 52,750 below it. Historically peaks in the four week average have been associated with the official ends of recessions. As the graph below shows (From Blogger: Page not found we are both far enough past and far enough below the apparent peak that it looks unlikely that it is a false peak. Historically, false peaks have been rare (there were two small potential ones in the early 1980’s cycle, but much smaller and shorter than the current decline) so I think that it is unlikely at this point that we go on to make fresh highs. Now the big question will be, does the correlation between the peak in the series and the end of recessions continue to hold. It also seems likely to me that the path on initial claims going forward will more closely resemble that of the last two recessions than earlier ones, remaining elevated but below the technical peak for a very extended time and falling only gradually, rather than a precipitous drop.
The news on continuing claims was not as good. They rose to 6.883 million, an increase of 159,000 and a new record. Some confirmation in the continuing claims data would make me more confident in the initial claims green shoot. So far we are not seeing it, and any recent declines in continuing claims have either been revised away or simply reversed and the old peak exceeded. In absolute terms the level of continuing claims just blows away any previous peak, like the mid 1970’s and the early 1980’s. The population and the workforce have both grown since then, so as a percentage of the covered workforce, we are actually slightly below the early 1980’s level (5.1% vs. 5.4%) and well below the mid-1970’s level (7.0%). On the other hand, continuing claims are still rising, so it is possible that we will take out the early 1980’s peak, but it seems unlikely that we will get above the 7.0% level to set a new record.
So what does falling new claims and rising continuing claims say? To me it says that the duration on unemployment is going to continue to increase. Last month, the median time the unemployed were out of work increased by three full weeks in a single month. The pace of layoffs has slowed, but the pace of new hiring is still very low. Half of all the people out of work have been looking for a new job for more than 17.9 weeks. Over 30% have exhausted their regular unemployment benefit (out of work more than 26 weeks) and are either on the extended benefits or are totally without income. Unless they have investments (i.e. borrow against or drain the 401-K) or equity in their houses, they will have to fall back on credit cards to survive. When those get maxed out, well American Express (AXP), Capitol One (COF) or J.P. Morgan (JPM) will just be out of luck since the people will default or file for bankruptcy. As for the long term unemployed, their financial position is likely to be permanently damaged. Their retirements are likely to be significantly different than they had envisioned, and their kids college plans may have to be altered. The effects of the Great Recession will echo for years to come.
To me PCE looks very flat -- no?
You can get by without the frills, but sooner or later you've got to restock the rootcellar ...
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/directors_charts/ibcd_02.pdf
St. Louis Fed: Series: PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures
Scary thought. What if our current 8%±1% UE is the new normal? It has been that way in Europe for a long time and lets face it. We are fast tracking to become a lot more like them in many respects.
murphy,
jobless recovery is not an oxymoron, it is designed to obfuscate the issue - but the short version is there is no such animal.
go long pitbulls and mace....
Samdog (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 8:51 am
To me PCE looks very flat -- no?
You can get by without the frills, but sooner or later you've got to restock the rootcellar ...
But on your next restock you buy cheaper substitute goods... store brands and generics... instead of the name brands.
energyecon - BHO is raising concerns about H1N1... just heard it on the tellie and thought you'd be interested....
The European countries that have an 8% UE are also the ones who generally have a 32 hour work week. That would equal an even higher UE number based on hours of employment.
"But on your next restock you buy cheaper substitute goods... store brands and generics... instead of the name brands."
.....and the next step-down from THAT is what?
"Hahahahahah! nice gains....Market Watch the new Comedy Network."
I received news in the past week that my sister-in-law and a friend were moving from rotating layoffs to permanent. Looking at the job boards, things are getting worse.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 6:57 am
reply ignore user
The European countries that have an 8% UE are also the ones who generally have a 32 hour work week. That would equal an even higher UE number based on hours of employment.
Checked our workweek lately?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SkzJC4O2KyI/AAAAAAAAFu0/3Lk2ZOw0hlY/s1600-h/AverageWeeklyHoursJuly.jpg
Of course the usual disclaimers apply about differing methodologies, etc.
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:54 am
"But on your next restock you buy cheaper substitute goods... store brands and generics... instead of the name brands."
__
Right ...
and don't forget the ammo -- aisle 11 ...
Repost from a pigged comment yesterday.
I still think GE is a ticking time bomb in a deflationary environment.
GE has net tangible assets of $8 billion, debt > than $500 billion, and a net quick of negative $150 billion (now you see the need for alphabet soup).
That's bad, but it gets worse. GE is carrying $82 billion in goodwill (10x net tangible assets).
A few weeks ago I watched former GE CEO Jack Welch on CNBC. He claimed Bernanke was a national hero. No joke. Given that GE has been thrown a huge lifeline by the fed, it's easy to understand Welch's views.
Welch deserves the Greenspan treatment in my book - genius to idiot in the public's eye. The man is a sham, the product of a bubble.
Not sure if there are steps in-between, but bulk dry goods can be a lot cheaper than the grocery store.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:57 am
"But on your next restock you buy cheaper substitute goods... store brands and generics... instead of the name brands."
.....and the next step-down from THAT is what?
__
Don't worry, BSR -- Rob Dawg will send the recipe for roast squirrel with slug and sawdust stuffing.
CalculatedRisk,
Thanks for the CNBC qualifier. I was miffed by the SA vs. NSA number. You should add that to the main page!
thanks nades
"I'd focus on the 4-week moving average of initial claims, not continued claims."
I really dont understand why. I guess it depends on what you are looking for. I suppose if you are looking for slowing worsening, then that would be a good thing to look at. Seems to me that during normal periods (when some of those that are actually unemployed get re-employed), the quoted statement would make sense. With the re-employment rate is so low, continued claims (along with those dropping off to extended UE benefits) would seem to be the thing to watch if you were looking for a recovery.
LOL....thnx, Samdog
Wet Seal is a clothing store for slutty teen girls. I guess Daddy is running low on cash.
Sawdust? You got sawdust? In my day we were so poor we had to substitute cheap fillers for sawdust.
"Wages are deflating."
Except at Goldman Sachs!!
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is on track to beat its 2007 trading-revenue record, enabling it to boost compensation by an estimated 64 percent from last year,
Goldman Sachs Trading Revenue May Beat Record, Moszkowski Says - Bloomberg.com
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:14 am reply Ignore user Why doesn't Buffett increase his own spending
AS,
While i admire what Buffet has done, he is one of the machines biggest hypocrites. He says he supports wealty individuals paying higher taxes and believes in higher taxes on estates, then turns around and donates his so his heirs dont have to pay taxes....
Wisdom,
Does that 17 yr 7 month cycle fall in on the square of nine theory?
How to Day Trade Square of Nine | eHow.com
REVIEW OF SQUARE OF NINE BASICS
This is why scare numbers work so well in America nothing to compare to or just leave out a very important qualifying element. Deception is always on the table. Proves once again Most Americans are not smart enough to be mad. Time for a bowl of green shoots for breakfast!
"Scary thought. What if our current 8%±1% UE is the new normal?"
You just thought of this?
So what are we to do with all those permanently unemployed/underemployed bachelor's degree holders? (and master's degree holders?) How do you tell them that there not only isn't any place for them in the new economy, but there may never be?
Failure to advance in American society is usually hushed up, or thought to be an individual failing. Failure to advance on a massive scale - that's kind of hard to dismiss.
Gurgle is wacking more people quietly too
Google Layoffs, Deep Cuts Underway
There are some yoga practitioners that would disagree that you can only eat your own appendages once.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 10:07 am
Sawdust? You got sawdust? In my day we were so poor we had to substitute cheap fillers for sawdust.
__
Ah ... fond memories of childhood: nothing like cheap fillers to top off fire-grilled chunks of one's own spleen!
@ mal (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 7:08 am
Failure to advance on a massive scale - that's kind of hard to dismiss.
Great point and this is what should have 98% of Americans shitting bricks and recalibrating their dreams.....but most are still living in yesterdays American dream
Wow, great timing ...
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:27 am reply Ignore user bh,
Agreed. And for the record, I don't see any conspiracies here. The old metrics just aren't tracking the new realities. Could it be that people have so much access to credit that employment issues are papered over with new debt and not reduced consumption
RD,
But the reduction in credit/debt numbers that came out this week?????
Nova,
I think his wife of many years recently died so he may have little use for the former.
We have an economy based mostly on taking a cut based on the amount of sludge that flows through the pipes, and very little based on ensuring material flows through those pipes. 10% of nothing is nothing. The miracle of the service economy.
"Failure to advance in American society is usually hushed up, or thought to be an individual failing."
.....that's why the "older" previously high-income are "over-qualified" and easily, eventually shunted to the "Discouraged Worker" category.....raising cattle, driving herds of chickens, and watering gardens.
BTW, good day yesterday for the Food Banks: 24-lbs zuchinni, 12-lbs pickling cucumbers, 24.4-lbs armenian cukes, 8-oz tomatoes, 8-oz bell peppers.
"Here is what I will be posting on Zacks.com:"
Dirk,
So interesting. Thanks.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 9:52 am reply Ignore user Scary thought. What if our current 8%±1% UE is the new normal?
It probably should be: The dot com employed a lot of non producers and corrected, many of these started euntrapanuer franchises etc during the housing boom staffed with more unqualified service workers.. opened their own "shops" in the village squares selling shit to friends with HELOC money...
Maybe we are just correcting everything to the norm, employment, credit, loan standards... maybe it is going where it should, and some people including DC are trying to anchor in an outgoing tide...
Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 7:17 am
RD,
But the reduction in credit/debt numbers that came out this week?????
That's exactly the point. We could be seeing some people aggressively reducing outstanding debt. That makes sense with all the ultra-low offers disappearing we ccard arbitragers (worker bees and ants) are just paying it off rather than putting up wit the rates/restrictions nonsense. At the same time it may be that other people (grasshoppers and mayflies) are using debt to maintain consumer spending. IOW it may be that the aggregate data is hiding underlying trends.
The historical answer to this question was to turn them into cannon fodder.
RD,
Concur with that hypothesis..
"Maybe we are just correcting everything to the norm, employment, credit, loan standards... maybe it is going where it should, and some people including DC are trying to anchor in an outgoing tide..."
So insecurity is normal? That would change everything.
Well its Thursday, another day circling the drain watching America try to stay afloat. Any chance of more BFT tonight or will we have to wait for BFF tomorrow?
For what its worth my bro in law was laid off over a year ago (on extended benifits) in ATL and has been collecting the GA max of 297 a week. His wife is a non degreed parapro so she doesnt make anything. Lucky the old house payment is low, 10 months ago they had 8K in savings and have managed to only be at 3K now... he is getting no hits and refuses to go get employed at lowes or anything like that (course they might not be hiring) but he is waiting for the 6th repetative send resume same job to be the charm i guess...
not next week thoughthey will be heading to Amelia Island for a week to a friends condo...
They have probably 8 CCards with 15 K limit on them and i cautioned him early on not to use them and def not use them for groceries or gas as it sends up a flag ..so far they havent tapped em..
So insecurity is normal? That would change everything.
Not saying that, but maybe prosperity (or property) breeds contempt or false security.....
Hello Elmo..
All I have to say is My fellow Americans...keep up the good work!...stop spending remember we are 70% of our GDP...stop the thieves in Washington, and keep asking where is the $12 trillion.
At some point they will have to tap the cards. Or?
Ahh. There's my 5 handle on oil. Now we can afford fertilizer for our withering green shoots. Seriously, this is a good thing. Besides the obvious I'm also looking out at long term contracts and see a lot of irresponsible speculators who are going to get creamed. And this is on topic. Employers need stable business expectations before they risk hiring. Wild swings and unexpected expenses are antithetical to jobs growth.
RD,
How will wind, solar, nuke and other green energy produce fertilizers, chemicals for farming?
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/9/2009 - 10:36 am reply Ignore user Hello Elmo..
keep asking where is the $12 trillion.
no no you dont get it, doesnt matter if there is or isnt 12 Trillion, we have 12 in stuff we need because of 8 year s of inseert name here... nothing to do with campaign contributors, or friends or relationships... its about fixing all those insert party /name here, irresponsible decisions...blah blah... we have only had 6 months, give us a chance and quit asking resonsible qustions
Yes, as Black Star Ranch points out it was a 4 day work week. The average state worker can only process 80% of the claims as compared to a standard work week.
Another example of how to mislead with statistics.
Having worked for a prestigious state university, I can tell you it is probably less than 80% of normal claims.
Those with seniority take vacation days regardless of the work load. They work the supervisors to dump the work on the new people to facilitate vacation approval... State employment is a crony system after all...Then the new people get fed up and call in sick on the 3rd...
So our optimum production on a holiday week is 80%, our real production, some what less...
thanks, energyecon. I think I understand.
The divergence between initial claims and continued claims seems to me to be nothing more than the inevitable result of enacting a public policy which extends the number of weeks one can collect unemployment.
Tell a politician about a problem and he or she will derive a way government can fix it.
Tell a Wall Streeter about a problem and he or she will derive a way to profit from it.
good articles... Interesting Finance & Economic articles
The problem with problems is sometimes solutions become worse problems than the original problems.