yep!

Starbucks are too far apart when you need them. They need to be next to each other. We need malls of starbucks.

Thread music: Adam Ant

strip malls were an easy way for small fish to get into the retail big bucks. easy way for small fish to get fried...

btw, is there a "medical office building" vacancy index? those have to be skying as well.

the nail salon near me now only takes cash

more empty retail space. Ritz Camera is liquidating. Another Chapter 11 reorg that failed.

Ritz Camera Warns of Possible Liquidation - washingtonpost.com

Border area of Phx / Scottsdale, strip malls have been going major vacant for the last 1 & 1/2 yrs. I would say several strip malls by my house are 30% to 50% vac now.

The worse is yet to come. I don't know how some of these places stay in business.

The building my office is in, about 40% vac now. This is a fairly high end area.

What I'm seeing more of is the rise of "falsies." That's where instead of a construction barrier with the comforting words; "Coming Soon" stenciled on the front instead the store is blacked out and the display window advertises other mall tenant wares. I wonder if those fronts are "rented" at some nominal rate.

my bad if repost

Four Seasons San Francisco in default - San Francisco Business Times: 

Millennium Partners is in default on its two-year $90 million loan for the 277-room Four Seasons Hotel San Francisco, according to the developer.

The luxury condo and hotel developer and operator has purposefully stopped making debt payments as a strategy to jump start renegotiating the debt with the special server, LNR Property Corp. The Four Seasons is the second luxury hotel to default on its debt payments in recent weeks. The owners of the 393-room Renaissance Stanford Court Hotel in Nob Hill, funds controlled by JER Partners, defaulted on a $89 million loan, according to lender Barclays Capital.

go srs go....

Hubby went to the big mall the other day, He said it was pretty dead in there. Not even the teens hanging out.

Pay the employees in cash and save the insurance as well as taxes.

Have not been around lately....don't know if this has gotten much traction here:

**FLASH** Goldman Code Theft BOMBSHELL? - The Market Ticker

Clancy's books have nothing on this at this point. Add in the mysterious death of the Frenchie

CFM Chief Aguilar Dies In Gliding Accident | FINalternatives

who just happened to switch over the the NYSE market platform a mere two weeks before the markets were goosed upwards. Eliminating the witness's?

The takeaway, for me, is that the NYSE had to have been complicit in this from the start. I wonder who else recently installed this platform?

I admit I get "tin-foily" at times but this just writes itself...

Ciao
MS.

Nail tecs are usually not employees, they rent their station and are independent contractors. Same for most hair dressers / stylist.

No insurance, no work comp, no unemployment benifits.

There's a Simpsons episode where most of the mall is Starbucks.

cclt: should we take a vote as to whether Millennium Partners default should be described as a "ruthless default" or a "strategic default"?

Is the difference dependent on the size of the loan or whether the loan is to a legal entity or a natural person?

The Zombieconomy isn't a buzzword. It's not an event. It's not (really) about banks. It is the state of our economy today....so get out to the Mall and buy something

Efficient Breach

I toured the Boise mall last week. Only 7 empty stores but in a pattern I never saw before. 5 of them were next to the empty Mervins anchor. I assume that those stores were completely dependent on impulse buys from walk thru traffic, ie no intrinsic value at all. Amazing.

N.B. "labelscar" is now in the glossary.

P.P.S. some wise acre also put "the glossary" in the glossary to humorous result.

VC fundraising falls 63 percent -- I'm sure this will be interpreted as more 'green shooties' by MSM

This is hardly a surprise, and probably is even a positive development considering the sorry state of the M&A and IPO markets. But the amount of money flowing into venture funds continues to decline. In the first half of this year, 51 U.S. venture funds have raised $5.1 billion. That compares to 115 funds that raised $13.6 billion for the same period last year, according to a report out today from Dow Jones. And it marks the the lowest first half investment total since 2003.

Well, here in my neighborhood in lovely west LA, they're busy preparing to tear down a block of single story stores, having evicted the tenants, and plan to construct a shiny new 2 story retail building. This on on W 3rd st for those who know the area. It's different here... :-/

AS links?

dawg : Space quotes for the glossary

In the Copley mall in Boston you can walk to 5 Starbucks without ever going outside. I'd argue only six would qualify as "overbuilt".

the odor of used jock straps is well known as a powerful financial inducement

Lucifer,I am in California,what IS this "Reality" you speak of?

let's combine some things to keep our local malls alive!

Suggestions:

Prison and Mall (Your teenage daughters will really love those badboys)
School and Mall (Class exercise....shopping!)
Mall and Mall (No way...there's a bed bath and beyond in a bed bath and beyond?)

pavel: I agree that it is depressing, but you have to function in the political economy as it is, not as it should be. Read the link on Efficient Breach of contract and realize that the doctrine was blessed by one of the most influential Federal judges. Morally, we have spent a generation racing to the bottom. Now that the bottom is in sight, they are getting out the backhoes to start some serious digging.

I want to see reality have it's way with canucks.. that would be entertaining.

//Lucifer's reality is Canada//

Don't give those idiots any more ideas.

//Do we have a Mall Czar yet?//

California Pot advocate ad airing on some tv stations today...

YouTube -

Bay Area TV stations reject marijuana legalization ad - Inside Bay Area

Most Bay Area television stations rejected or apparently ignored a new advertisement urging Californians to reconsider legalizing and taxing marijuana as a way to help close the state's gaping budget deficit, the ad's sponsors say.

thought they might need the revenue....

those tricky little pot smokers, using tax revenue to further cause...

CEF, MS,

Intel/reasearch is often flawed. Sometimes innocently, sometimes not. I think wall st reasearch is purposefully flawed. The system demands it.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB132/relea00012.pdf

Ten percent seems low. Then again, there are still many Jamba Juices that must barely make it, as well as plenty of bag boutiques and such.

Re the Renaissance Stanford Court. I stayed there last year thanks to Priceline. No surprise here, the nobby neighborhood does not a financial success make. For pedestrians, to get there is like mountain climbing, and downhill, the knees shake. The entrance is like for a garage, the lobby a half basement. The quality of the refurbishings seems to be ok, but all in all, in an era of hotel room glut, this does not compare favorably to other four stars.

"N.B. "labelscar" is now in the glossary."

Awesome. I see those all the time lately.

How is it that no one had put and entry in for Zombie Bank yet?

I knew it.. it is the doomsday machine

Goldman Sachs Loses Grip on Its Doomsday Machine: Jonathan Weil
Goldman Sachs Loses Grip on Its Doomsday Machine: Jonathan Weil - Bloomberg.com

Commentary by Jonathan Weil

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Never let it be said that the Justice Department can’t move quickly when it gets a hot tip about an alleged crime at a Wall Street bank. It does help, though, if the party doing the complaining is the bank itself, and not merely an aggrieved customer. Another plus is if the bank tells the feds the security of the U.S. financial markets is at stake. This brings us to the strange tale of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Sergey Aleynikov.

...urging Californians to reconsider legalizing and taxing marijuana as a way to help close the state's gaping budget deficit, ...

• be better off taxing meth ingredients.

I know of a US Sub captain (SSN) who refused to return fire on Soviet Destroyers who were attacking him in international waters. He was cashiered but we missed WWIII

The quality of meth in USA has improved since the DEA started clamping down on raw materials. Now it is made in proper factories in mexico and then 'imported' into the US.

//- be better off taxing meth ingredients.//

more empty retail space. Ritz Camera is liquidating. Another Chapter 11 reorg that failed.

The company already has shuttered about 400 stores and shut down its Boater's World Marine Centers.

Boaters is going out of business?

God, that's terrible. Where will the Marines shop now?

"pavel: I agree that it is depressing, but you have to function in the political economy as it is, not as it should be."

F & W, Of course.

"Morally, we have spent a generation racing to the bottom. Now that the bottom is in sight, they are getting out the backhoes to start some serious digging."

This is indeed much more ominous than a bad quarter or even a bad year.

I've just watched a short video in which President Obama publicly lectures President Medvedev about the importance of the rule of law, accountability etc. I hope that we will listen to our own lectures.

Brief impression: In the video, at least, Obama seems self-confident, as one would expect of the chief executive officer of the most powerful nation in history. Medvedev seems uncomfortable with this. Putin - very brief appearance in the video - looks to be very angry.

Millman said a sale could be difficult because many of the 370 remaining stores are located in malls with high rents and declining foot traffic.

I think this is zeroing in on the real problem. It's lack of foot traffic.

You would think Obama and Timmay would have a foot traffic stimulus plan by now.

REAL unemployment should be including 'discouraged' workers - those no longer trying and long off unemployment benefits, as well as those 'self-employed' and actually LOSING money and should account for the vast numbers of UNDER employed - those working part-time involuntarily, those working at jobs far below their qualifications and previous income levels and those working part-time because they can;t find full-time work.

good articles for slow news days: Financial Opinions Updated Daily iamned.com

"Warning IQ level has just gone down 50 points"

Goethe once told a friend that he'd just met Herr Schmidt in the street and had been exchanging ideas with him. "And now,' said Goethe, 'I feel like a perfect idiot."

MS - Regarding NYSE being complicit with the GS code...

Madoff was chairman of Nasdaq... does that instill more or less trust in NYSE?

"logic bomb: E(insert problem)(current status)(Democrat in)(exec - leg +/- jdy) = solution *(Reagan)nth"

With this you could construct a journalist/robot.

Told ya!

Going down in the downturn: More women are turning to sex work in a bad economy. Does it beat working at McDonald's?
Pinched - Salon.com

.................Five months ago, before being laid off, Marie was bringing in $45,000 a year at Enterprise Rent-A-Car. Now, she operates out of two offices: her living room and a regularly changing hotel room. Her uniform is different, too: Instead of conservative business attire, she dons a lace bra and booty-hugging capris. The former corporate supervisor has become a sex worker................

Time for some more "We sell your shit on eBay" stores.

luci, there are male sex workers as well
keep us informed

not my cup of tea.. I prefer women

luci, there are male sex workers as well

44% of propane workers smoking. Good idea, that.

Empty Mall Stores Trigger Rent Cuts: Remaining Tenants Point to Occupancy Guarantees to Shave Overhead Costs or Escape Leases
Empty Mall Stores Trigger Rent Cuts - WSJ.com

Retail chains are using the fine print in their leases to demand rent reductions, eking out critical savings and pressuring mall owners already struggling with vacancies. Gap Inc., Williams-Sonoma Inc. and AnnTaylor Stores Corp., among others, are poring over their leases and dispatching staff to track store closures that trigger "cotenancy clauses." The clauses, relatively common in retail leases, let tenants demand cuts in rent -- or, eventually, a penalty-free pullout -- if key tenants or a specified numbers of stores leave the center.

pavel - not only that, but you (ie one) could clone them and stock an entire, oh, I dunno, university-like thing where there's no need for primary research to present challenges on falsifiability grounds to accepted nostrums, call it something robust and vaguely involving a brain stem like a .... think tank.

Now, the marketing gang kick in. From your focus groups select from the following and their near cognates to appeal to people who you would like to be like you but you'll never meet and don't much care for as long as they support / fund / vote for your real friends who enable your life of leisure:

Freedom
Heritage
Nation
America
House
Capital
Forum
Famous benefactor
(Emphatic Marker)

Once you combine the logic bomb described earlier in the manual with the structural and marketing approach so described at delivery stage you then have The American Enterprise Institute. Try with extra election and helicopter action for some real fun.

C

Actually, what is more striking than empty small strip mall stores, are the empty anchor stores everywhere.

rich,
AA bounced 7% in AH trading. The theory is that with all the layoffs, they will sell a lot more aluminum for beer cans, I guess.

Crazy volatility today again. Someone should open a new brokerage and call it CalvinTrade.

Vornado, which has one of the industry's most respected management teams, believes it can raise equity more cheaply from private investors than in the public market.

Dry powder from the usual suspects (e.g. pensions, insurance, endowments) is getting quite a bit scarce. Seeing more "efficient breaches" of commitments, especially from the public pensions funds that only recently dabbled in PE.

The solution is simple... Have the Fed print enough money to hire 15 million secret shoppers. Solves the unemployment problem and the strip mall problem.

The secret shopper idea is great. Solves several problems at once.

Can I garage sale all the stuff I am paid ot buy? That would be a bonus.

Lucifer (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 6:41 pm
"The quality of meth in USA has improved since the DEA started clamping down on raw materials. "

-that wasn't really the point, now, was it?

how many secret strippers (m/f)?

goldmans making book off strippers, must be end days for them too

thanks barfly.....I just couldn't remember the name.

Ciao
MS

Mike in Long Island,

Ah ... the old "Treasury-Fed-Aig-GS Secret Handshake,"

(wink, wink ... nod, nod)

longwaver,

Brilliant!

But can't we screw the US taxpayers, too? -- just for fun?

Samdog:

OH YES WE CAN!!!

The secrete shoppers will force prices to go UP and create shortages! As prices rise, the sales taxes collected will increase.

You'll pay and pay and pay!!!

Ever watched "Wizard of Oz"?

//These are supposedly people of high regard, people whom have developed a brain, are "experts" (God help us) and unfortunately are our Country's advisers and leaders.//

I read Sergey Aleynikov's Strategic Telecom Optimized Routing Machine patent. It shows that he has some expertise, but any connection with network sniffing, in my opinion, would be speculative. The patent simply doesn't get close to that area.

--Ten percent seems low. Then again, there are still many Jamba Juices that must barely make it, as well as plenty of bag boutiques and such. --

I was at the Ala Moana Mall recently and waited in line with my daughter to get a smoothie. I was mesmerized by how busy this place was. Non-stop. I remarked to my daughter that the owner of this particular Jamba Juice would turn down the top position at GS unless he/she was willing to take a pay cut.

What will the future mall anchors be?

• 99 cent store
• walmart
• salvation army
• rent-a-center (by magic johnson)
• marijuana shop

IT-

i don't think they were complicit with the code per se but it's the access to the actual server that is the real "meat" here. No access to server means no way to run the code.

That they are allowed to co-locate servers in the same building, let alone the same room, is enough to cry foul but this is just beyond anything I could come up with. It's my understanding that this whole code is derived from a telecom switching program that was adapted to the data feeds of the NYSE. But it only works if you are allowed to get in front of the transmission of the feed to the execution portion (mere mili-seconds).

Markets have always been manipulated in some way, shape or form. In the past the "rigger's" had to undertake some form of risk.......with this program the risk is essentially removed since you know what's coming in before the order hits the tape....you may make a few cents but multiply that by 300m or more a day and it starts to add up fast.

In any case the USG just gave anyone with half a brain a decent roadmap on how they got the market goosed up since early march and the enabler took no risk whatsoever......sounds like a recent problem we've been having doesn't it?

Ciao
MS

Scrooge:

Don't forget a currency exchange store. A place to take your Cali IOUs and turn them into Yuan for a "small fee".

@longwaver

Oh man what a great idea. Hopefully I can get a california SBA loan for that.

MS - touche. This thing stinks.

Interesting article in the NY Times, questioning the slow peeling of the bandage off our bad debt problem. (Interesting that it's in the NY Times, alongside the usual cheerleading for Bernanke and Geithner and company.)

Are Bailouts Part of the Problem? - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com

Ten percent is about right when you assume that vacancies aren't spread evenly. Well-situated malls at the center of population centers probably still have low vacancy. New malls in new neighborhoods, out at the far edge of development, especially where retail was overbuilt -- much higher vacancy.

These are supposedly people of high regard, people whom have developed a brain, are "experts" ...

BSR- these are the people who have made connections through means unavailable to the average person. They are not necessarily any "smarter". While you were off fightin' and dyin', they were figuring out how they were going to screw you when you came back. I dare say you'll have the last laugh, though.

I dare say you'll have the last laugh, though.

last, of course

depends how you interpret it

depends how you interpret it

I mean BSR has more "quality of life" than they will ever have.

I have an idea for all those ghost-town strip malls -- plaster the parking lots with solar panels. Yeah. Or something.

Now that I read Amazing Grace Fiction.

Urban Re-Outfitters.

Mall based storefront consultants that revamp your lifestyle to better deal with the new realities. How to de-badge your AMG. Covering your "Obama '08" bumper sticker with Deathtöngue artwork. Dumpster diving is not an olympic sport. Making the transition from insider trading to barter. Squash in the pot not the court. Etc.

hmmm, dumpster diving could be an XBox 360 game though...

And squirrels. Recipes, bastes for braising over chopstick fires in coffee cans, and so much more!

Note to self, add to The Curriculum.

C

So many squirrel recipes.. but so few spam recipes. Why?

Mall squirrels raised on leftovers from Jamba Juice and Wetzels Pretzels could command a premium. CRs Squirrely-Q could go national. Think of the franchise fees.

mouse over for recipe and recipes for the squirrel enthusiastes

If GS is front-running than I'm going to buy GS stock... oh wait... maybe they are front-running their own stock too...

With GS it appears to be a symbiosis with the Fed & DC.

When everyone front-runs everyone and themselves isn't that free market transparency?

Or criminogenic nirvana, one or the other.

C

nytol

No more upscale green shoots...Smith and Hawken is done. Scott's Miracle-Gro, which bought the chain in 2004, is liquidating all 56 stores.

Everything in the economy is collapsing except the federal government and what it chooses to prop up.

Not good.

Obama...nice suit, nice talk, no real clue.

YLSP-

They do that more than we will ever know........just like today's "wildly successful" 10 year.

Summation of the 10 y= "maths are hard"

Ciao
MS

Mmmm... smells like late-stage capitalism! If so, we need to start preparing for the reality that there will BE no recovery.

Yeah, don't know whether to laugh or cry.

need to start preparing for the reality that there will BE no energy.

minor adjustment

Meanwhile, across the pond...

“The prevalence of foreign currency lending may create significant macroeconomic risks,” the ECB said in its report.

Last December, €95.4bn ($132bn, £82.4bn) in euro banknotes were in circulation outside the 16-member currency bloc – mainly in countries to the east and south-east of the eurozone – almost a third higher than the €71.1bn a year earlier.

As a result, 13 per cent of euro banknotes are circulating outside the eurozone, although remittances from family members working in the EU could mean that the figure is as high as 20 per cent.

Non euro-countries continue to lever up.

Interesting tidbit that came from the Governator -- Cali only has 12% of the US population but 30% of the welfare cases.

TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 10:49 pm

Yeah, don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Both at once, friends. The black hole economy will consume the real material economy, then gradually parasitize itself. The sleeper must awaken

deleted redundent

The quintessential delusion of capitalism, which is the flowering of Western metaphysics, is that the head (caput) can survive without the body.

nail tecs have to go to school and be lic here in AZ. As they are independent contractors they are not elllig to collect unemployment. Food stamps - not sure how that works. I think it is some figuring on income, family size etc.

The bar tenders working for cash are probably paid less than min wage? But maybe tips are good?

I think for any type of assistance you have to show rent reciept, bank stattements etc. Not sure how all that works.

Lucifer (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 8:50 pm

Terrorist!

They thought they were performing a standard walletectomy but cut too deep and excised my tolerance gland. I mean it isn't like I'm driving across the west with zebra mussels visiting waterworks or wondering aloud what dumping a bag of sharps would do to subway. I mean it isn't like democacies rely upon the consent of the governed or anything.

Related topic, the Cal State system is invoking another round of fee increases but still charging out of state tuition to New Mexico students and no tuition to Mexican National students.

I have seen fee increases in every city I deal with in AZ. They can't raise taxes or people will be angry. But fees, sure. No one has any say about fees.

dawg : those nuevos go to the back of the bus

MS,

You thinking of any catch barrels or basins for brown water?

Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 11:03 pm

With the RE/Investment Bank ponzis representing 40% of corporate profits and at least an equal percentage of contributions to our leaders election campaigns, I suspect we have crossed that threshold already. Surely since we have now offshored a sizable sum of any real economy, the ponzi is what we are left with.

Yes, and arguably all this Keynesian nonsense is the self-destructive action of an economic system, i.e. the economy consuming itself

'Strip malls' have been difficult for local economic development for a long time. Parking problems, fragmented ownership, absentee owners, and shallow lots make strip malls difficult to redevelop and can quickly become true urban blight. Many cities invest in parking lots, facade programs, and small business loan programs to keep these somewhat attractive and reduce vacancies. In California there are some real successful strip malls but nearly all of them are in affluent, coastal, and/or tourist areas.

Retail trends moved away from strip malls many decades ago, and more recently from regional malls. Regional malls seem to be surviving going downscale if necessary, but losing even low end anchor stores like Mervyns had to hurt. I still haven't seen a complete 'ghost mall' in So Cal yet like I did in the early 90s recession, but I'm sure they are out there.

'Power centers' with big boxes will survive in most areas, and others out in the edge cities will become vast parking lots with lots of room for... something.

The more recent 'Lifestyle Centers' like the Irvine Spectrum will suffer, but except for the more marginal ones like Kaleidoscope I wouldn't expect as many of these to go under.

I know there were jokes about it, but it can't be that hard to convert a strip mall into a jail. Seems like an obvious direction to go too. At least here in Los Angeles.

"Seems like an obvious direction to go too. At least here in Los Angeles."

Somehow I doubt Cali's problems are with TOO FEW jails...

"Water goes up 18% in SD this year.....19% next year....almost 21% the year after."

My parents east of Phoenix pay BIG BUCKS ($200-400/mo) for water in summer - their pool doesn't help .........Sure makes me appreciate my crystal clear well water though.

Comrade Elmer Fudd (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 11:26 pm

sorry joking about 4 hour erection or whatever it was still "hubris towards our own biological nature." is right on

But it does express a very common attitude of hubris towards nature that tends to accompany any new technology. The scary thing is to realize it is impossible to have done comprehensive long-term tests on these medications, say after 20-30 years' time. Hope for the best!

"Water goes up 18% in SD this year.....19% next year....almost 21% the year after."

My parents east of Phoenix pay BIG BUCKS ($200-400/mo) for water in summer - their pool doesn't help .........Sure makes me appreciate my crystal clear well water though.

Water will have to get even more expensive out there if growth is to continue. Its the only way to ration the scarce resource and provide incentive to develop more sources.

Blows my mind though - I live less than a mile walk from the Mississippi and as much water as there is in the river there is even more flowing underground through the miles of alluvial sand deposits on both sides. We don't even think about water as a 'resource' here - its taken for granted like sunshine in Arizona.

high demand/growth career: Personal Shoppers!

Commodities looking extremely bullish tomorrow.

Depression Era Unemployment Rate

dry - no tumbleweeds, no parking lot cracks. Just some empty store-fronts. (California, east bay)

Brown water to the septic, gray water to the orchard.