Hi guys, I ve got a question.
Is there a rule of thumb to estimate the maintenance expense for 1-4 units apartment complex? Let's say 2% of total value, or anything like that. Any internet sources regarding that issue?
Answer or lack of it is appreciated. Green Shoots (nice evening) everyone.
With rents falling, and OER being about a quarter of the CPI, it seems like a deflating CPI is more likely in the near future than it has been thus far.
Toss in the fresh retreats in commodity prices, lack of pricing power in retail, and so on: it seems like Bernanke will have to take the next step soon? Maybe in conjunction with "funding" the second stimulus?
@Comrade de Chaos: the percentage depends significantly on age of the building, nature of the tenants, and its geographic location.
4 plexes are very, very hard to get to cash flow, in almost any market.
I say this with 30+ yrs of experiance in property management.
Buy single families or over 100 unit multi properties.
And do Due Diligence. Pay someone to do it if you have no experiance, it will save you a bundle in the short and long run. Have an exit plan, as for any investment.
An undersupply of housing and weak returns from other assets has put the spotlight on investment property. John Collett talks to the experts.
Following the dismal performance of shares and super funds, many older investors are likely to have a renewed appreciation for the value of a reliable income stream generated by investment properties.
It is not for myself, I'll be trying to talk a client out of possible blinder. I have everything figured out but possible maintenance cost. Unfortunately, I don't have all of the details : age of building and similar. I was hopping for some average estimate & disclosure that it may vary.
and THANK you guys!!!!
Comrade De chaos,I managed 1-4's for 15 years and the answers given here are on the money.One other important question is the landlord tenant laws in the city where the property is located.If you gave me a rental property in Oakland or Berkeley it would be on the market the same day.
By KAREN ROBINSON-JACOBS / The Dallas Morning News
That shuttered Mexican restaurant around the corner may soon be reborn as an Indian spot. Or Italian. Or a burger bar. A.J. Duggal, owner of Kebab-N-Kurry Indian Restaurant in Richardson, is renovating a closed Mexican restaurant in Addison into an upscale Indian eatery - at a substantial savings from building new. While the economy has undercut eateries throughout North Texas, scores of restaurant operators are looking to take over abandoned spaces and give them another shot
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- When UBS AG Chief Executive Officer Oswald J. Gruebel pledged in April to shrink Switzerland’s largest bank by assets, shareholders may not have realized just how much he would have to cut. UBS needs to unload more than 450 billion francs ($413 billion) of assets, 40 percent of the bank’s total, or increase capital by almost 23 billion francs to meet new guidelines from the Swiss central bank, according to Kian Abouhossein, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. That’s after the Zurich-based company raised 3.8 billion francs in June by selling new shares.
Can someone explain this? I would have thought that with this avalanche of foreclosures that we are in the midst of, apartment vacancy rates would be down, as the foreclosees would be forced to rent. Are they, instead, opting for the great outdoors?
inspect each unit. figure cost of any current maint issues.
figure cost to turn the unit when it is vacated. place this cost in the time frame of the lease end date. figure how long it will take to turn. vacancy is a cost. figure ad costs etc.
include maint of common areas.
include hold back for ext paint, pool repair, roofs, HVAC maint and possible repair due to age.
Go to the nearest drug store or market at 4:30pm, sit there until 6:30pm. Watch the type of people and cars that show up, this is your tenant base.
4 plexes are very, very hard to get to cash flow, in almost any market.
It has worked out for me and my partners, but be sure you buy into a market that will at least quadruple in ten or twelve years---that's the secret of our success.
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machine orders unexpectedly fell for a third month and the current-account surplus narrowed because of plunging exports, stoking concern that the economy will struggle to emerge from its worst postwar recession. Orders, an indicator of spending by companies in the next three to six months, declined 3 percent in May from April, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The current-account excess shrank 34.3 percent from a year ago, the Finance Ministry said.
WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration said Tuesday it could continue to imprison non-U.S. citizens indefinitely even if they have been acquitted of terrorism charges by a U.S. military commission. Jeh Johnson, the Defense Department's chief lawyer, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that releasing a detainee who has been tried and found not guilty was a policy decision that officials would make based on their estimate of whether the prisoner posed a future threat. Like the Bush administration, the Obama administration argues that the legal basis for indefinite detention of aliens it considers dangerous is separate from war-crimes prosecutions. Officials say that the laws of war allow indefinite detention to prevent aliens from committing warlike acts in future, while prosecution by military commission aims to punish them for war crimes committed in the past.
sdtfs (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 10:32 pm replyIgnore user4 plexes are very, very hard to get to cash flow, in almost any market.
It has worked out for me and my partners, but be sure you buy into a market that will at least quadruple in ten or twelve years---that's the secret of our success.
The next 10 or 12 years will not be like the last 10 or 12 years. IMHO
Latunga Childers lost her $8-an-hour job as a McDonald's manager in April. Soon after, she opened an envelope from Alabama unemployment officials expecting to find a check.
Instead, there was a letter declaring her ineligible for benefits. Behind that letter was a complicated fight over the federal stimulus and the strings that come with it. Alabama stood to receive $100 million in federal stimulus money this spring for benefits to people who lose low-wage jobs, as well as part-timers and seasonal workers. In all, the stimulus provided $7 billion for such workers, an estimated 650,000 people nationally, who typically didn't qualify for any benefits. But the federal money came with strings attached, and Alabama -- along with Mississippi -- balked. To collect, most states needed to pass new laws governing the distribution of benefits and make other adjustments. Those laws can be repealed later, but that process is often harder than passing new laws in the first place.
"Did you show him some articles from CR? Like this one, maybe?"
I could only wish that any investment decision be driven by estimate of potential cash flows rather than the chase for some emotional and illusional values. Also my job is to provide analysis and potential scenarios rather than to scary people into or out of anything. Everything else is up to them, free will : )
In May, employees of Student Media Group in Newark, Del., started noticing a few things popping up in the office: a 50-inch plasma television screen, a ping-pong table, a Wii videogame player and a fridge stocked with free soda and snacks. They wondered what was going on. After three salespeople were laid off during the spring and revenue fell 40% year-to-year in the first four months of 2009, the owner of the college advertising company sensed a bad vibe among the 19 remaining employees that he didn't want to continue. So, he invested $3,000 on perks to motivate his staff.
Office rents fell 6.7% year-over-year this quarter, the largest single quarter decline since the first quarter of 2002 as the worsening jobs market continued to reduce demand, according to a report scheduled to be released Tuesday by research firm Reis Inc. Businesses dumped an additional 20 million square feet of space on the market -- the sixth consecutive quarter that businesses shed more space than they leased, a process known as "negative absorption," according to the report.
By Dale Kasler
Published: Tuesday, Jul. 7, 2009 - 12:00 am | Page 6B
Last Modified: Tuesday, Jul. 7, 2009 - 12:16 pm
There's a market for everything, it seems, including California IOUs. The newly minted IOUs, a product of the state's cash shortage, could turn into an investment vehicle if the state budget crisis persists. Advertisements have begun popping up on Craigslist and other Web sites from individuals interested in buying the notes for less than face value. A Rocklin temp-agency owner who's owed money by the state is considering selling IOUs through her other company, an auction house. A New York firm that specializes in trading so-called distressed securities hopes to set up a market for the California notes.
"Can someone explain this? I would have thought that with this avalanche of foreclosures that we are in the midst of, apartment vacancy rates would be down, as the foreclosees would be forced to rent. Are they, instead, opting for the great outdoors?"
a) people are moving in together
b) people are renting their spare space in higher numbers
c) shadow inventory (condos, etc) are converted into rental properties
it is an incredibly stupid time to buy said investment, BTW, unless your GRM is under ten, you're all cash and your net worth is a big multiple of full value of such. some markets with these kinds of units (greater NYC, SF proper, the PNW) are a VERY stupid place for such an investment.
New slot machine at the casino.
I find it interesting. But people will sell, buy, trade and bet on almost anything you can think of - if they think there is a risk of losing or a profit to be made.
The next 10 or 12 years will not be like the last 10 or 12 years. IMHO
The period I'm referring to is '92 to '04 in San Diego. One partner thinks it's hard work and street smarts that enabled us to get by,...I think we had a whole lotta luck. The last 5 years haven't changed his mind. I doubt we're going to see another run like that for a while.
Bluzer (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 10:31 pm
Can someone explain this? I would have thought that with this avalanche of foreclosures that we are in the midst of, apartment vacancy rates would be down, as the foreclosees would be forced to rent. Are they, instead, opting for the great outdoors?
They go home, live with friends, or double and triple up or even 7 up >; )
Example: I rent a 3700sqft gorgeous house with 4 other adults and 1 child now. It's right off a river with lake and surrounded by open woods on 2 sides. Our suburban veggie garden is killer. I'd buy this place to keep as a commune if if I could but I'm eyeing some ag parcels down the way a bit.
Is it night-time at CR open season? The policy on the detainees is hilarious. One would think that the Uighers (sp?) would be the safest people to set free in America, especially knowing that a) everyone will be watching them and b) every-three letter agency will be watching them. We should feel more unsafe because our government is afraid to let the detainees go free (not just in America, right; we won't even free them to Afghanistan?).
Ugh... I love the fact that we've sent our "Department of Defense" troops overseas... for some reason I had a fear that the Chinese were going to up and sneak-attack us ala Germany into Russia in WW2... but that was just the echos of Hardcore History podcast ringing in my ears...
By Joanna Chung in New York
Published: July 7 2009 21:45 | Last updated: July 8 2009 00:30
Hank Greenberg, the former chief executive of insurer AIG on Tuesday prevailed in a high-profile legal battle with his former company after a federal jury ruled in his favour over claims related to a $4.3bn lawsuit. The jury ruled that Mr Greenberg’s private investment firm, Starr International Company (Sico), did not breach a trust when it terminated a long-term compensation plan at the insurer four years ago and was not liable for about $4.3bn worth of shares held for that programme.
I wonder how 4 plexes in college towns would pencil out. In the town where my undergraduate school was located, landlords were getting 4 students per two bedroom unit. Made it tough for single family renters because the students would pay less per person but the total rent per unit would be much higher.
sdtfs, your timing was lucky. The mid 80s was another lucky time to invest in RE.
Lucifer, yes I agree. Someone is going to get hurt. The sellers because they need the money now and will agree to "pay day loan" terms. The buyers because Ca is already trying to put terms and conditions on redemption, if they pay at all. maybe both ends get trimmed in the mess.
Kung.Fu.Panda (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 10:55 pm reply Ignore user I wonder how 4 plexes in college towns would pencil out. In the town where my undergraduate school was located, landlords were getting 4 students per two bedroom unit. Made it tough for single family renters because the students would pay less per person but the total rent per unit would be much higher.
The amount of work involved in managing that is insane. You would have to pay me big bucks to raise those kids. I raised mine and that was enough.
YLSP,
The Uighur detainee thing has been a farce. We wouldn't release them to the Chinese, who were willing to take them because the govt thought the ChiGov would execute them. So we are giving $200 mil to some island in the South Pacific that is a US "protectorate" to take these people.
For the first time in many years "for rent" signs are staying up for more than a few days in sebastopol,and there are "for rent" signs on SFR's which is something I have not seen in the 4 years I have lived here.How long are the signs staying up? one was broken in 2 a month or more ago and the pieces are still hanging...this is at a small 12 unit complex across from the 7-11,not the most desirable area...but still.
josap,
I agree...male college students tend to put holes in the walls horsing around or fighting. I had a roommate who scorched the ceiling in our apt mixing up a batch of homemade cherry bombs. He came home from the ER with both hands heavily bandaged.
Night-time OT: Solar Powered Man Flight Flying Forever A quarter of the weight of HB-SIA is accounted for by its lithium-polymer batteries, which will power the four electrically driven propellers during the first test flights. As those flights become longer and higher, the aircraft will start to draw power from its solar cells. It will fly slowly, only at about 70kph in windless conditions. Its electric motors can produce a maximum of 9 kilowatts, or 12 horsepower—which is about the same as the Wright brothers had. With all four engines at full power, HB-SIA is only as powerful as a motor scooter. Yet with careful rationing of its stored energy, it should be possible to achieve the closest thing yet to perpetual manned flight—with man being the limiting factor because of the need to carry food and drink, and to remain awake for long periods.
Check out the picture; I can't believe someone is going to fly in that thing...
"'92 to '04 in San Diego."
Brutal! I have compassion for you.
Air head land. I did quite a bit of surfing in North County, but that is when it was populated by avocado and flower growers, ganja smugglers, and surfers.
josap....good advice!
wish you would have told me that when I got in some years back (agree on 4-plexes),
and also do due diligence on your partners (in this case - my 2 brothers)
I have a hard time believing the CA IOU saga is going to last until October. Give it another month or 2 and I think the Dem's will make enough concessions to get one R to flip.
male college students tend to put holes in the walls horsing around or fighting.
Not to mention those .45 rounds in the ceiling to get that rat running across the attic.
"Comrade de Chaos,
Yes.. exactly. Did we not learn anything?"
From my experience, we will not learn anything. Ten years from now, there will be another bubble, and we (most of us myself including) will repeat our mistakes. It has to do a lot with the stage of our social development and human nature. Now, I wish my statement will be proved wrong.
the gap is 25 billion this year and will be 35 next year.
that's way too many interest groups. CA will be issuing IOUs indefinitely. The GO bonds will stop paying in about a year. This time of year in 2011, Sacramento will finally be settling on a 90 bil budget - which will still be delusional POS relative to the reality of 60-65 bil state revenue.
Kung.Fu,
LOL... homemade cherry bombs!
but you know as a landlord it's going to be a long slog when
you pay tenant a visit and he's wearing 2 different shoes
(has yet to happen but I'm waiting for one to blow up my house
with a meth lab...)
....
what's the opposite of white shoe tenants?
For the first time in many years "for rent" signs are staying up for more than a few days in sebastopol
I drove through Sebastapol today, and did notice a few for rent signs.
As Sebastapol is the Fairfax of Sonoma County, it was a surprise.
Silicon Valley--I checked out apt rents back in May and most places in Palo Alto were offering 1 month free on a 12 month lease. Unlike 2000 when you had to sacrifice your first born to get a place.
NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG.P) will temporarily suspend issuing new shares pending regulatory approval to expand the number of shares it can issue to 1.2 billion, the company said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday.
Speaking selfishly, I'd like UNG to go really high; I have some stinky shares of it that I neglected to set the stops on last fall. But this seems creepy somehow.
Yuan Deposes Dollar on China Border in Sign of Future Yuan Deposes Dollar on China Border in Sign of Future (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Huang Xinyuan, who sells mining equipment and pesticides to customers across China’s border with Vietnam, says he no longer wants payment in U.S. dollars and prefers the yuan.
Sales using the greenback at Guangxi Jinbei Group, where Huang is vice president, dropped to 30 percent of contracts in 2008 from 87 percent in 2007. The yuan, which has gained 21 percent since it was allowed to strengthen against the dollar starting in 2005, offers greater stability, he said.
... effective rent was down 1.9 percent from the prior year and 0.9 percent from the first quarter
OER is 22-27% of CPI. If this self reported number actually reflected the reality above deflation would be another full point negative. Do COLA formulas include clawbacks?
c,
I think 1:20 between comments is the most I've seen here in years. U goz ez on the cafeine der countepointer. Still early. You might do something impulsive like invest in the markets. Unless you are shorting commodities in which case load up.
I thought we'd heard the last of the screaming guy Billy Mayes. But his Awesome Auger keeps popping up. Mute, mute, mute, quickly! don't look directly at the screen! It's evil!!!!
The feds could even call it the State Assistance Programs (SAPs) and provide targeted relief to selected states. That way avoid the whimpering over bailing out CA?
Yeah, I saw the ad campaign on the bus shelters here in Montgomery. Apparently VA is for lovers.
Of guns, incarceration for traffic violations, aggressive driving... ! Tsk tsk. You really need Nanny County to wholesale your booze too. Solves everything.
c, thanks for the link. You gotta wonder when fedgov decides they need to cut the banks out of that loop and manipulate it directly like the counterparty Chicomms.
nova,
As usual you ask the right question and as usual the answer is "worse than even that." The symbiotic, parasitic relationships are far more complex than you can explain in a thesis never mind blog post. Education is a hybrid of local districts and partial county/regional higher admin but is majority funded by the State. State funding started in 1978 as a way to equalize outcomes in the rich and poor districts. The result was some weird overlay funding conduits.
Okay, the point. The State, the municipalities, some school districts (LAUSD), weird things like electric TIE corridors, transit agencies who have cross border authority and multitiered and matching funding issues... all have problems. No amount of State support will prevent Oxnard from defaulting on their road bond lease arrangement for but one example.
How's my Wed Jul 15th 11:00AM California capitulation looking? Everything looks to the stars aligning about then. Anyone see a mulligan? Will a "budget agreement in principal" announcement buy more time?
I am concerned that the bailout will include a VAT.
' What if teachers were paid based on the future income their students make. For example, student A grows up to make 100k a year. We look at the records and find the 20 teachers that taught student A and compensate them based on that. Compensation could be based on number of months spent with student.'
I already use ebay, craiglist, etsy, etc. when I can for non food purchases because I'm determined to starve the CA beast. I think that more people will just tap into that sort of alt. retail environment. For me, a trip to NV for some items might become even more worth the trip.
If they introduce the VAT without reducing current income tax levels, joecheapchardonay just might get pissed off enough to leave his backyard faux tiki hut and write a stern letter or two.
Well, Yerp futures mostly down, US virtually flat with slight aire du kermit, Stoxx50 jagging around but nowhere especially directional, Asia mainly tanked overnight, commod currencies down against dollar - AUD well below previous psych point of 80c.
Jane - what a fabulous way to screw the teachers without the need for kissing.
A dollar deferred is a dollar saved. As Wimpy would say, "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."
Also, corollary of money--a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.
RD makes an even finer point, although cell sharing with former students might just solve your housing/retirement situation. Nothing beats three hots and a cot.
Dawg,
At least there would be some happy CRE speculators if Tom got his way. I suppose that's a sign I should dump some my last SRS this morning.
C,
They were up earlier. I guess someone wanted to get in front of the train early and changed their mind.
Rex & Volker,
I just like the idea that someone was trying something, hell anything different. CA is the very definition of insanity where we try the same crap over and over and expect a different result. I'll listen to anyone's ideas.
say, what ever happened to the possible agreement to send a portion of CA inmates to Mich? I thought that was brilliant.
Dismantle the bureaucracy, return the power to local school boards.
Well then you'll have a whole bunch of messes. Bullshit. We did just fine before, the state and feds screwed the pooch, jumped the shark and went off on a number of snipe hunts.
Examples write the future. Here's some of what's happened when fedgov sticks its nose in the tent:
Education lower outcomes
Housing bubble
Bank bailout
Coming soon health care. Its all about a fundamental misreading of what makes America work so well. Success depends upon government providing a level playing field of opportunity not outcome. When you start managing to outcome everyone devolves to lowest common denominators.
And expect triage. You wanna waste the doctor's time? Fine, some medic will screen you. That person's job is to shunt as much as possible away from the trained professional. This will make it more 'profitable'. Of course it will create barriers for the truly sick, delay diagnosis, yadayadayada, blahblahblah.
But Dawg, it's hard work arbing a level playing field. Others might get in the way. Instead of all that R&D, marketing, supply chain efficiency work, and innovation, why not spend comparatively less, maybe with some close friends, tilting the playing field so that you start at the high end with a strong following wind?
Quick comment about 4 plexes. My folks had one back in the late 80's early 90's. They made out okay but what a headache. Try getting a non-paying tenant with kids evicted - since boyfriend/hubby got locked up dealing there was no money for rent - but apparently there was enough for the cars, clothes and other things they had become accustomed to.
If you don't have a property management company get your friends to call you at random hours to deal with things like the leak from the upstairs apartment at 2am from an overflowing tub or the lack of heat at 10pm.
......a little ethnic cleansing to clean up the race. Becoming a "world power" sure has its inconveniences. Civil strife, wars, imported sympathies........ah the fun............. /snark off
Good Morning. There will be many unforeseen consequences to the World's Policeman coming down with epilepsy, an undetermined terminal neurological disease, and a chronic gambling affliction.
Am I missing something here?
First they tell us that there is a million plus unsold housing which represents maybe a year's inventory.
Now they tell us that apartment rental vacancy is up.
So if there is an oversupply of houses and rental units, where are people living? What happened to the people that left their house and apartment?
Do the math,these people must be living somewhere. Maybe Wall Street packaged and sold them.
I believe that BHO now has no choice but to bail out the state of california..
I believe that to not, crushes the TBTF mantra, as the state of cali is such a large "employer" and has so much dependency on it, more than AIG, more than GM, more than Chrysler.
If BHO leaves Cali alone and they come out of it by say, conroling spending, thats another loss for congressional and BHO spending your way out of it...
If Cali doesnt cut spending then they have no choice but to raise crippiling taxes...another no win..
..................N Korea started DDoS attack against S Korea and US instead of nuclear war ......now S Korean finacial system is in chaos ......just now NASDAQ closed Korean system connection...........
Nothing will change there, and anywhere, until the citizens minds get reset. At firs I was looking at it as a gov problem. Thats wrong.
The problem is also demographics as far as the voting block. You have a huge one that believes it spent years coloring between the lines. Now, it wants to hang the picture up on the refrigerator and kick back.
It is not a spending problem. A tax problem. It is a citizen mentality problem.
Since the only way to reboot minds is usually through, oh less than pleasant methods, then the conclusion has to be CA is doomed and MJ is burning in hell.
If houses are empty and apartments are empty, I think we've had "aliens" returning home. This will result in there being less pent up demand in the future.
........The current Admin has sit down at the table and "started playing". As he spends more, drinkks more, and loses more, the inclination is to do more of the same. Hopefully he won't get up before the game breaks up - he's already spent our rent money, food money and car payments for the next 30-years. He won't need to come home again, we can do without him.
I am really surprised that more folks (Right, media, assistance groups) havent been vocal about Friday night date nights, "when during the day they all talk about how folks have had to curb their going out, etc....
BSR: he best not come home, the large angry woman called the electorate will have at him come 2010--elections have a way of being statements, I know, I know, all you cynics out there--watch the power shift after that.
And if past is prologue, it should coincide m/l with something that resembles a bottom (2011--2012). So, they'll patch up a few things, let the overall situation deteriorate and then 2012 comes just in time for them to trot out some geezer spouting Reaganisms and blue sky morning platitudes.
Nice taped interbiew with Phil Donahue interviewing Milton Freidman and It sounds like politically and economically it could have been taped yesterday. Shows how timeless yet circular our nation really is...
Mel says "If houses are empty and apartments are empty, I think we've had "aliens" returning home. This will result in there being less pent up demand in the future."
Yes, this is part of the problem. Another part is that household size is rising. More roommates, and people moving back in with their parents. Those big McMansions which had two people can often comfortably hold 8-10.
I have seen estimates of 1 million less immigrants in the US than in 2007. I'm getting the feeling that must be heavily concentrated in CA and AZ. I also think the number is low. Over time, we will also have more and more H1 and student visas expiring. In a bad economy, most of them will go back home.
"
Jay.D.. (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 8:26 am
..................N Korea started DDoS attack against S Korea and US instead of nuclear war ......now S Korean finacial system is in chaos ......just now NASDAQ closed Korean system connection..........."
Any IT folks out there? Is there any reason why DoS attacks can't be "shut off" at the routers that handle overseas connections to the internet? Couldn't we then just rely on mirrors at Google, et al until the threat can be dealt with? Obviously, I only know enough about this stuff to be dangerous; please help
@ Volcker - 5:27 am
I am a part time rural carrier - the mail volume is indeed WAAAY down. Our salaries are figured on mail volume and the volume count this March was devastating. Our routes were cut back along with our pay, and things haven't improved much since. so much for green shoots. The mail day following July 4 is usually a bear, what with two or three days of sorted mail coming to us on Monday. This year it was way down, not much more than a normal Monday. July is usually a heavy catalog month, as retailers start gearing up early for Xmas. Not so this year.
The PO has been laying off administrative personnel, there is a hiring freeze on worker bees like us and early retirement has been pushed to the max at all levels. Two years ago I would have recommended a career here, but not now.
We are borrowing the stimulus money. More stimulus is equivalent to throwing gasoline on the fire. We can't possible pay the debt back... legitimately. The government will use inflation to cheapen the debt. Unfortunately, this will hurt the poor, the working class, and the elderly on fixed income. Reckless government spending is not an American value. Interesting Finance & Economic articles
Stimulus is a joke of a concept; it doesn't end up with real economic growth in the long term. Even the New Deal failed to increase private investment. It wasn't until 1941 that domestic private investment reached 1929 levels. The fact that the first stimulus has failed to stop the bleeding yet isn't surprising. Our government deficit for the year which is over 20% of GDP (when the omnibus bill, first stimulus, bailouts, and on-budget deficit are summed) is unsustainable and something's gotta give, whether it be the lenders or the interest rates.
They really should do a re-make of "Three's Company".
Yep,...so you want to be a landlord,....
Hi guys, I ve got a question.
Is there a rule of thumb to estimate the maintenance expense for 1-4 units apartment complex? Let's say 2% of total value, or anything like that. Any internet sources regarding that issue?
Answer or lack of it is appreciated. Green Shoots (nice evening) everyone.
With rents falling, and OER being about a quarter of the CPI, it seems like a deflating CPI is more likely in the near future than it has been thus far.
Toss in the fresh retreats in commodity prices, lack of pricing power in retail, and so on: it seems like Bernanke will have to take the next step soon? Maybe in conjunction with "funding" the second stimulus?
@Comrade de Chaos: the percentage depends significantly on age of the building, nature of the tenants, and its geographic location.
Is there a rule of thumb to estimate the maintenance expense for 1-4 units apartment complex?
NO!!!!
Okay, for newer stuff there's less maintenance, but basically property will eat up as much money as you want to throw at it.
When were general expectations of an early 2010 economic recovery goalposts moved? I thought for sure 2nd Half recovery was the new black!
"Is there a rule of thumb to estimate the maintenance expense for 1-4 units apartment complex? "
The standard RE agent reply is 3% of cost ...
Real numbers will depend on several variables ...
Age of building
Type of building
Deferred maintenance
Socio economic profile of the tenants
Turnover ratio of the tenants
...
Fractional Lending = Fictional Lending
Chaos
4 plexes are very, very hard to get to cash flow, in almost any market.
I say this with 30+ yrs of experiance in property management.
Buy single families or over 100 unit multi properties.
And do Due Diligence. Pay someone to do it if you have no experiance, it will save you a bundle in the short and long run. Have an exit plan, as for any investment.
The delusion is still strong!
The return of rental property
The return of rental property - Property - Money - Business - Home - smh.com.au
July 8, 2009
An undersupply of housing and weak returns from other assets has put the spotlight on investment property. John Collett talks to the experts.
Following the dismal performance of shares and super funds, many older investors are likely to have a renewed appreciation for the value of a reliable income stream generated by investment properties.
I guess no one told those older investors about SRS.
They'll get to the end result quicker...
It is not for myself, I'll be trying to talk a client out of possible blinder. I have everything figured out but possible maintenance cost. Unfortunately, I don't have all of the details : age of building and similar. I was hopping for some average estimate & disclosure that it may vary.
and THANK you guys!!!!
In other news..
Google Unveils Plans to Create Operating System on Company Blog
Google Unveils Plans to Create Operating System on Company Blog - Bloomberg.com
By Tim Smith
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc. is planning to create the Google Chrome Operating System, the company said today on its blog.
Comrade De chaos,I managed 1-4's for 15 years and the answers given here are on the money.One other important question is the landlord tenant laws in the city where the property is located.If you gave me a rental property in Oakland or Berkeley it would be on the market the same day.
chainsaw catchers?
Where one restaurant closes, another often springs up in space
Where one restaurant closes, another often springs up in space |
News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News
| Dallas Business News
12:00 AM CDT on Wednesday, July 8, 2009
By KAREN ROBINSON-JACOBS / The Dallas Morning News
That shuttered Mexican restaurant around the corner may soon be reborn as an Indian spot. Or Italian. Or a burger bar. A.J. Duggal, owner of Kebab-N-Kurry Indian Restaurant in Richardson, is renovating a closed Mexican restaurant in Addison into an upscale Indian eatery - at a substantial savings from building new. While the economy has undercut eateries throughout North Texas, scores of restaurant operators are looking to take over abandoned spaces and give them another shot
Does he know?
Gruebel Isn’t Saying How Cutting 40% of UBS Can Help Earnings
Gruebel Isn’t Saying How Cutting 40% of UBS Can Help Earnings - Bloomberg.com
By Elena Logutenkova
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- When UBS AG Chief Executive Officer Oswald J. Gruebel pledged in April to shrink Switzerland’s largest bank by assets, shareholders may not have realized just how much he would have to cut. UBS needs to unload more than 450 billion francs ($413 billion) of assets, 40 percent of the bank’s total, or increase capital by almost 23 billion francs to meet new guidelines from the Swiss central bank, according to Kian Abouhossein, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. That’s after the Zurich-based company raised 3.8 billion francs in June by selling new shares.
@Comrade de Chaos
Did you show him some articles from CR?
Like this one, maybe?
Can someone explain this? I would have thought that with this avalanche of foreclosures that we are in the midst of, apartment vacancy rates would be down, as the foreclosees would be forced to rent. Are they, instead, opting for the great outdoors?
To estimate maint costs::
inspect each unit. figure cost of any current maint issues.
figure cost to turn the unit when it is vacated. place this cost in the time frame of the lease end date. figure how long it will take to turn. vacancy is a cost. figure ad costs etc.
include maint of common areas.
include hold back for ext paint, pool repair, roofs, HVAC maint and possible repair due to age.
Go to the nearest drug store or market at 4:30pm, sit there until 6:30pm. Watch the type of people and cars that show up, this is your tenant base.
4 plexes are very, very hard to get to cash flow, in almost any market.
It has worked out for me and my partners, but be sure you buy into a market that will at least quadruple in ten or twelve years---that's the secret of our success.
Green shoots.. shoot!
Japan Machine Orders Unexpectedly Fall, Current Account Narrows
Japan Machine Orders Unexpectedly Fall, Exports Slump (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
By Jason Clenfield and Keiko Ujikane
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machine orders unexpectedly fell for a third month and the current-account surplus narrowed because of plunging exports, stoking concern that the economy will struggle to emerge from its worst postwar recession. Orders, an indicator of spending by companies in the next three to six months, declined 3 percent in May from April, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The current-account excess shrank 34.3 percent from a year ago, the Finance Ministry said.
Detainees, Even if Acquitted, Might Not Go Free
Detainees, Even if Acquitted, Might Not Go Free - WSJ.com
By JESS BRAVIN
WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration said Tuesday it could continue to imprison non-U.S. citizens indefinitely even if they have been acquitted of terrorism charges by a U.S. military commission. Jeh Johnson, the Defense Department's chief lawyer, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that releasing a detainee who has been tried and found not guilty was a policy decision that officials would make based on their estimate of whether the prisoner posed a future threat. Like the Bush administration, the Obama administration argues that the legal basis for indefinite detention of aliens it considers dangerous is separate from war-crimes prosecutions. Officials say that the laws of war allow indefinite detention to prevent aliens from committing warlike acts in future, while prosecution by military commission aims to punish them for war crimes committed in the past.
sdtfs (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 10:32 pm replyIgnore user4 plexes are very, very hard to get to cash flow, in almost any market.
It has worked out for me and my partners, but be sure you buy into a market that will at least quadruple in ten or twelve years---that's the secret of our success.
The next 10 or 12 years will not be like the last 10 or 12 years. IMHO
Now you know why these two states were amongst the poorest till the late 1960s.. they are filled with stupid people.
Jobless Feel Effects of States' Stimulus Rejection
Jobless Feel Effects of States' Stimulus Rejection - WSJ.com
By IANTHE JEANNE DUGAN and KRIS MAHER
Latunga Childers lost her $8-an-hour job as a McDonald's manager in April. Soon after, she opened an envelope from Alabama unemployment officials expecting to find a check.
Instead, there was a letter declaring her ineligible for benefits. Behind that letter was a complicated fight over the federal stimulus and the strings that come with it. Alabama stood to receive $100 million in federal stimulus money this spring for benefits to people who lose low-wage jobs, as well as part-timers and seasonal workers. In all, the stimulus provided $7 billion for such workers, an estimated 650,000 people nationally, who typically didn't qualify for any benefits. But the federal money came with strings attached, and Alabama -- along with Mississippi -- balked. To collect, most states needed to pass new laws governing the distribution of benefits and make other adjustments. Those laws can be repealed later, but that process is often harder than passing new laws in the first place.
"Did you show him some articles from CR? Like this one, maybe?"
I could only wish that any investment decision be driven by estimate of potential cash flows rather than the chase for some emotional and illusional values. Also my job is to provide analysis and potential scenarios rather than to scary people into or out of anything. Everything else is up to them, free will : )
Anyone having a dilbert moment?
Rewards Help Soothe Hard Times: Amid Staff Cutbacks, Employers Add Perks for Their Remaining Workers
Rewards Help Soothe Hard Times - WSJ.com
By RAYMUND FLANDEZ
In May, employees of Student Media Group in Newark, Del., started noticing a few things popping up in the office: a 50-inch plasma television screen, a ping-pong table, a Wii videogame player and a fridge stocked with free soda and snacks. They wondered what was going on. After three salespeople were laid off during the spring and revenue fell 40% year-to-year in the first four months of 2009, the owner of the college advertising company sensed a bad vibe among the 19 remaining employees that he didn't want to continue. So, he invested $3,000 on perks to motivate his staff.
Are they, instead, opting for the great outdoors?
No, moving in with their parents.
Office Rents Decline
Office Rents Decline - WSJ.com
By CHRISTINA S.N. LEWIS
Office rents fell 6.7% year-over-year this quarter, the largest single quarter decline since the first quarter of 2002 as the worsening jobs market continued to reduce demand, according to a report scheduled to be released Tuesday by research firm Reis Inc. Businesses dumped an additional 20 million square feet of space on the market -- the sixth consecutive quarter that businesses shed more space than they leased, a process known as "negative absorption," according to the report.
Lucifer,
Stop trying to cheer people up -- it'll ruin your rep.
Chaos, that is why you do due dilligence. Numbers, facts, leases, repairs, market rates and trends.
If they can count, they can make a good choice.
DEAR GOD!
California IOUs may become investment vehicles
404 - Not Found - sacbee.com
By Dale Kasler
Published: Tuesday, Jul. 7, 2009 - 12:00 am | Page 6B
Last Modified: Tuesday, Jul. 7, 2009 - 12:16 pm
There's a market for everything, it seems, including California IOUs. The newly minted IOUs, a product of the state's cash shortage, could turn into an investment vehicle if the state budget crisis persists. Advertisements have begun popping up on Craigslist and other Web sites from individuals interested in buying the notes for less than face value. A Rocklin temp-agency owner who's owed money by the state is considering selling IOUs through her other company, an auction house. A New York firm that specializes in trading so-called distressed securities hopes to set up a market for the California notes.
Lucifer
You must really be upset, you are talking to God
josap,
Did you read that article.. they are going to securitize those IOUs.
"Can someone explain this? I would have thought that with this avalanche of foreclosures that we are in the midst of, apartment vacancy rates would be down, as the foreclosees would be forced to rent. Are they, instead, opting for the great outdoors?"
a) people are moving in together
b) people are renting their spare space in higher numbers
c) shadow inventory (condos, etc) are converted into rental properties
"Is there a rule of thumb"
5K/unit
it is an incredibly stupid time to buy said investment, BTW, unless your GRM is under ten, you're all cash and your net worth is a big multiple of full value of such. some markets with these kinds of units (greater NYC, SF proper, the PNW) are a VERY stupid place for such an investment.
Yes I read it.
New slot machine at the casino.
I find it interesting. But people will sell, buy, trade and bet on almost anything you can think of - if they think there is a risk of losing or a profit to be made.
The next 10 or 12 years will not be like the last 10 or 12 years. IMHO
The period I'm referring to is '92 to '04 in San Diego. One partner thinks it's hard work and street smarts that enabled us to get by,...I think we had a whole lotta luck. The last 5 years haven't changed his mind. I doubt we're going to see another run like that for a while.
I might buy IUOs at 60 par this winter. JNK was a great buy last winter, wish I'd picked up more.
josap,
I know.. but this is so obviously a bad idea..
"'92 to '04 in San Diego."
a bit of schadenfreude watching encinitas, coronado, solana, cardiff etc feel the burn
Bluzer (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 10:31 pm
Can someone explain this? I would have thought that with this avalanche of foreclosures that we are in the midst of, apartment vacancy rates would be down, as the foreclosees would be forced to rent. Are they, instead, opting for the great outdoors?
They go home, live with friends, or double and triple up or even 7 up >; )
Example: I rent a 3700sqft gorgeous house with 4 other adults and 1 child now. It's right off a river with lake and surrounded by open woods on 2 sides. Our suburban veggie garden is killer. I'd buy this place to keep as a commune if if I could but I'm eyeing some ag parcels down the way a bit.
Is it night-time at CR open season? The policy on the detainees is hilarious. One would think that the Uighers (sp?) would be the safest people to set free in America, especially knowing that a) everyone will be watching them and b) every-three letter agency will be watching them. We should feel more unsafe because our government is afraid to let the detainees go free (not just in America, right; we won't even free them to Afghanistan?).
Ugh... I love the fact that we've sent our "Department of Defense" troops overseas... for some reason I had a fear that the Chinese were going to up and sneak-attack us ala Germany into Russia in WW2... but that was just the echos of Hardcore History podcast ringing in my ears...
"Did you read that article.. they are going to securitize those IOUs."
all right, IOU's are getting triple junk rating and will be broken into various priority tranches. Crisis solved, opps masked away : (
AIG == best conduit to transfer money to a**holes.
AIG loses $4.3bn case against Greenberg
FT.com / Companies / Insurance - AIG loses $4.3bn case against Greenberg
By Joanna Chung in New York
Published: July 7 2009 21:45 | Last updated: July 8 2009 00:30
Hank Greenberg, the former chief executive of insurer AIG on Tuesday prevailed in a high-profile legal battle with his former company after a federal jury ruled in his favour over claims related to a $4.3bn lawsuit. The jury ruled that Mr Greenberg’s private investment firm, Starr International Company (Sico), did not breach a trust when it terminated a long-term compensation plan at the insurer four years ago and was not liable for about $4.3bn worth of shares held for that programme.
I wonder how 4 plexes in college towns would pencil out. In the town where my undergraduate school was located, landlords were getting 4 students per two bedroom unit. Made it tough for single family renters because the students would pay less per person but the total rent per unit would be much higher.
sdtfs, your timing was lucky. The mid 80s was another lucky time to invest in RE.
Lucifer, yes I agree. Someone is going to get hurt. The sellers because they need the money now and will agree to "pay day loan" terms. The buyers because Ca is already trying to put terms and conditions on redemption, if they pay at all. maybe both ends get trimmed in the mess.
CORONADO 18 $1,137,500 $1,785,000 -36.27%
yikes.
Comrade de Chaos,
Yes.. exactly. Did we not learn anything?
Kung.Fu.Panda (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 10:55 pm reply Ignore user I wonder how 4 plexes in college towns would pencil out. In the town where my undergraduate school was located, landlords were getting 4 students per two bedroom unit. Made it tough for single family renters because the students would pay less per person but the total rent per unit would be much higher.
The amount of work involved in managing that is insane. You would have to pay me big bucks to raise those kids. I raised mine and that was enough.
YLSP,
The Uighur detainee thing has been a farce. We wouldn't release them to the Chinese, who were willing to take them because the govt thought the ChiGov would execute them. So we are giving $200 mil to some island in the South Pacific that is a US "protectorate" to take these people.
not to make light of things, but that does sounds like a really funny comedy flick.
For the first time in many years "for rent" signs are staying up for more than a few days in sebastopol,and there are "for rent" signs on SFR's which is something I have not seen in the 4 years I have lived here.How long are the signs staying up? one was broken in 2 a month or more ago and the pieces are still hanging...this is at a small 12 unit complex across from the 7-11,not the most desirable area...but still.
josap,
I agree...male college students tend to put holes in the walls horsing around or fighting. I had a roommate who scorched the ceiling in our apt mixing up a batch of homemade cherry bombs. He came home from the ER with both hands heavily bandaged.
Night-time OT: Solar Powered Man Flight Flying Forever
A quarter of the weight of HB-SIA is accounted for by its lithium-polymer batteries, which will power the four electrically driven propellers during the first test flights. As those flights become longer and higher, the aircraft will start to draw power from its solar cells. It will fly slowly, only at about 70kph in windless conditions. Its electric motors can produce a maximum of 9 kilowatts, or 12 horsepower—which is about the same as the Wright brothers had. With all four engines at full power, HB-SIA is only as powerful as a motor scooter. Yet with careful rationing of its stored energy, it should be possible to achieve the closest thing yet to perpetual manned flight—with man being the limiting factor because of the need to carry food and drink, and to remain awake for long periods.
Check out the picture; I can't believe someone is going to fly in that thing...
"STOCKTON 561 $112,000 $194,500 -42.42%"
sorry, couldn't resist.
that is more units than all of SF, or napa, nevada, marin and el dorado counties COMBINED.
"'92 to '04 in San Diego."
Brutal! I have compassion for you.
Air head land. I did quite a bit of surfing in North County, but that is when it was populated by avocado and flower growers, ganja smugglers, and surfers.
josap....good advice!
wish you would have told me that when I got in some years back (agree on 4-plexes),
and also do due diligence on your partners (in this case - my 2 brothers)
I have a hard time believing the CA IOU saga is going to last until October. Give it another month or 2 and I think the Dem's will make enough concessions to get one R to flip.
male college students tend to put holes in the walls horsing around or fighting.
Not to mention those .45 rounds in the ceiling to get that rat running across the attic.
Male students.
Imagine a ceiling COVERD in beer bottle tops. Pushed into the ceiling.
Just one of my Oh S**t moments in life.
"Comrade de Chaos,
Yes.. exactly. Did we not learn anything?"
From my experience, we will not learn anything. Ten years from now, there will be another bubble, and we (most of us myself including) will repeat our mistakes. It has to do a lot with the stage of our social development and human nature. Now, I wish my statement will be proved wrong.
"I think the Dem's will make enough concessions"
the gap is 25 billion this year and will be 35 next year.
that's way too many interest groups. CA will be issuing IOUs indefinitely. The GO bonds will stop paying in about a year. This time of year in 2011, Sacramento will finally be settling on a 90 bil budget - which will still be delusional POS relative to the reality of 60-65 bil state revenue.
Kung.Fu,
LOL... homemade cherry bombs!
but you know as a landlord it's going to be a long slog when
you pay tenant a visit and he's wearing 2 different shoes
(has yet to happen but I'm waiting for one to blow up my house
with a meth lab...)
....
what's the opposite of white shoe tenants?
For the first time in many years "for rent" signs are staying up for more than a few days in sebastopol
I drove through Sebastapol today, and did notice a few for rent signs.
As Sebastapol is the Fairfax of Sonoma County, it was a surprise.
Duke the cost of hazmat for a meth house - just burn it down. Much cheaper.
Drop me a line next time you are in the neighborhood and I will buy you a cup of coffee.
Guys, you are the best, thanks.
Yes we can (good night), and the best to you all.
Silicon Valley apartments are still just as overpriced as they always were. The party is still going here: it's still 2005 in their minds.
Tom-
I will, thanks for the invitation. I live in Mill Valley, but have a PO Box in Sonoma (I lived in Kenwood for quite a while).
Last load of laundry is now in the drier.
Nite all
Silicon Valley--I checked out apt rents back in May and most places in Palo Alto were offering 1 month free on a 12 month lease. Unlike 2000 when you had to sacrifice your first born to get a place.
Those "one month free offers" are a gimmock. It's an implicit 8% rent increase after a year, and you have to MOVE to get another similar deal.
Hopefully, Hewlett-Packard and Yahoo will have some more major layoffs to help grease the skids of rent decreases.
In case it's not been posted:
US Natural Gas Fund stops issuing new shares
NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG.P) will temporarily suspend issuing new shares pending regulatory approval to expand the number of shares it can issue to 1.2 billion, the company said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday.
Speaking selfishly, I'd like UNG to go really high; I have some stinky shares of it that I neglected to set the stops on last fall. But this seems creepy somehow.
Yuan Deposes Dollar on China Border in Sign of Future
Yuan Deposes Dollar on China Border in Sign of Future (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Huang Xinyuan, who sells mining equipment and pesticides to customers across China’s border with Vietnam, says he no longer wants payment in U.S. dollars and prefers the yuan.
Sales using the greenback at Guangxi Jinbei Group, where Huang is vice president, dropped to 30 percent of contracts in 2008 from 87 percent in 2007. The yuan, which has gained 21 percent since it was allowed to strengthen against the dollar starting in 2005, offers greater stability, he said.
California IOUs may become investment vehicles
Yea!
A new bubble!
... effective rent was down 1.9 percent from the prior year and 0.9 percent from the first quarter
OER is 22-27% of CPI. If this self reported number actually reflected the reality above deflation would be another full point negative. Do COLA formulas include clawbacks?
Quite a thread.
When Lucifer moves back in with his dad then we'll know hell is in the handbasket too. Bottom!
Wez my java.
C
c,
I think 1:20 between comments is the most I've seen here in years. U goz ez on the cafeine der countepointer. Still early. You might do something impulsive like invest in the markets. Unless you are shorting commodities in which case load up.
dawg, you still there?
Yep. Wassup?
LOL dawg. Leftcoast having naps. Cute. Mr Market never sleeps...
BTW, least useful bloomie index now found - China T holdings, late, lagged, can't fool around with it:
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
C
CA is really 2 issues?
The state shortfall?
The city and county budget shortfalls?
nova - good point. 2 answers, therefore. Can't constitutionally bail a state. Can bail the constituent parts.
How's fairfaxmageddon treating you?
C
Hey C,
Everything is jake here in the land of love and crowded woods.
I thought we'd heard the last of the screaming guy Billy Mayes. But his Awesome Auger keeps popping up. Mute, mute, mute, quickly! don't look directly at the screen! It's evil!!!!
So the feds could create a superfund to provide relief to the counties/cities. Doing that would indirectly bail out the state gov?
re: Volker on Mays.
We must keep it muted always, as Joe Kernan is a babbling fool.
The feds could even call it the State Assistance Programs (SAPs) and provide targeted relief to selected states. That way avoid the whimpering over bailing out CA?
Yeah, I saw the ad campaign on the bus shelters here in Montgomery. Apparently VA is for lovers.
Of guns, incarceration for traffic violations, aggressive driving... ! Tsk tsk. You really need Nanny County to wholesale your booze too. Solves everything.
C
They used to with the ABC stores.
I think 1 out 10 Fairfax county res. now have a concealed carry permit. The rest work for Homeland Security
but Becky Quick gots dem bedroom eyes
Ok you know something is up when I'm awake at O'darkthirty.
So who reset the futures? they were down when I went to sleep.
Time for the 3 S's
Time for the 3 S's
c, thanks for the link. You gotta wonder when fedgov decides they need to cut the banks out of that loop and manipulate it directly like the counterparty Chicomms.
nova,
As usual you ask the right question and as usual the answer is "worse than even that." The symbiotic, parasitic relationships are far more complex than you can explain in a thesis never mind blog post. Education is a hybrid of local districts and partial county/regional higher admin but is majority funded by the State. State funding started in 1978 as a way to equalize outcomes in the rich and poor districts. The result was some weird overlay funding conduits.
Okay, the point. The State, the municipalities, some school districts (LAUSD), weird things like electric TIE corridors, transit agencies who have cross border authority and multitiered and matching funding issues... all have problems. No amount of State support will prevent Oxnard from defaulting on their road bond lease arrangement for but one example.
Thanks Dawg..
Had to goog the ABC stores. Never seen one. Some related blogs discussing privatization, in suitably commonwealth manner.
Now, about those futures...
C
Planet Money on da Popa
Planet Money Blog : NPR
interesting.
How's my Wed Jul 15th 11:00AM California capitulation looking? Everything looks to the stars aligning about then. Anyone see a mulligan? Will a "budget agreement in principal" announcement buy more time?
I am concerned that the bailout will include a VAT.
OK this one is for Dawg since you're talking CA school system
Turn Students Into Investments
Turn Students Into Investments - Planet Money Blog : NPR
' What if teachers were paid based on the future income their students make. For example, student A grows up to make 100k a year. We look at the records and find the 20 teachers that taught student A and compensate them based on that. Compensation could be based on number of months spent with student.'
Jane,
As long as we can charge teachers for incarceration of the less successful.
Tom McClintock has the problem well defined here: A Modest Proposal for Saving Our Schools
Dawg,
I already use ebay, craiglist, etsy, etc. when I can for non food purchases because I'm determined to starve the CA beast. I think that more people will just tap into that sort of alt. retail environment. For me, a trip to NV for some items might become even more worth the trip.
If they introduce the VAT without reducing current income tax levels, joecheapchardonay just might get pissed off enough to leave his backyard faux tiki hut and write a stern letter or two.
Deflationary Jane (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 4:08 am
...
Turn Students Into Investments
eek! Makes me glad we're home schooling (not to cut out the middleman on the monetization of students)
If the only metric we use when educating our kids is money, we've jumped the shark again.
Well, Yerp futures mostly down, US virtually flat with slight aire du kermit, Stoxx50 jagging around but nowhere especially directional, Asia mainly tanked overnight, commod currencies down against dollar - AUD well below previous psych point of 80c.
Looks like a great day ahead.
C
Jane - what a fabulous way to screw the teachers without the need for kissing.
A dollar deferred is a dollar saved. As Wimpy would say, "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."
Also, corollary of money--a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.
RD makes an even finer point, although cell sharing with former students might just solve your housing/retirement situation. Nothing beats three hots and a cot.
Dawg,
At least there would be some happy CRE speculators if Tom got his way. I suppose that's a sign I should dump some my last SRS this morning.
C,
They were up earlier. I guess someone wanted to get in front of the train early and changed their mind.
Rex & Volker,
I just like the idea that someone was trying something, hell anything different. CA is the very definition of insanity where we try the same crap over and over and expect a different result. I'll listen to anyone's ideas.
say, what ever happened to the possible agreement to send a portion of CA inmates to Mich? I thought that was brilliant.
Dismantle the bureaucracy, return the power to local school boards.
Well then you'll have a whole bunch of messes. Bullshit. We did just fine before, the state and feds screwed the pooch, jumped the shark and went off on a number of snipe hunts.
Jane - about the same time at the 10yr yields started to hike back up in the after-hours... All set to tighten that belt before 1pm. Heave!
C
Examples write the future. Here's some of what's happened when fedgov sticks its nose in the tent:
Education lower outcomes
Housing bubble
Bank bailout
Coming soon health care. Its all about a fundamental misreading of what makes America work so well. Success depends upon government providing a level playing field of opportunity not outcome. When you start managing to outcome everyone devolves to lowest common denominators.
Dammit, gimme my health. You promised me health. Where it at?
And expect triage. You wanna waste the doctor's time? Fine, some medic will screen you. That person's job is to shunt as much as possible away from the trained professional. This will make it more 'profitable'. Of course it will create barriers for the truly sick, delay diagnosis, yadayadayada, blahblahblah.
But Dawg, it's hard work arbing a level playing field. Others might get in the way. Instead of all that R&D, marketing, supply chain efficiency work, and innovation, why not spend comparatively less, maybe with some close friends, tilting the playing field so that you start at the high end with a strong following wind?
Long K St CRE. Very long.
C
Counterpointer
How you doing this fine morning. Not a cloud in the sky from my perch in lower Manhattan - stark contrast to the seemingly endless rain we've had.
Anyhow - I posted up a vid yesterday that you might like - apologies for the OT on a thread from the early AM.
YouTube - Black Joe Lewis & The Honeybears - I'm Broke: Closed-Captioned/Clean Version
YouTube -
"K St. CRE."
Testify. I often thought this country started downhill with the installation of air conditioning in D.C. offices.
"America, land of opportunity." Remember that? Been replaced with "Calvinmerica."
Quick comment about 4 plexes. My folks had one back in the late 80's early 90's. They made out okay but what a headache. Try getting a non-paying tenant with kids evicted - since boyfriend/hubby got locked up dealing there was no money for rent - but apparently there was enough for the cars, clothes and other things they had become accustomed to.
If you don't have a property management company get your friends to call you at random hours to deal with things like the leak from the upstairs apartment at 2am from an overflowing tub or the lack of heat at 10pm.
If that stuff doesn't bother you go for it...
Mortgage products market shrinks by 90%
Mortgage products market shrinks by 90% |
Money |
guardian.co.uk
you think you have problems:
China’s Military Tackles Mobs in 3rd Day of Ethnic Violence - Bloomberg.com
well timed unrest sufficient to get Hu home away from G8. hmmmmm.....
Hu leaves G8 summit to "contain" unrest. Xinjiang is supposedly an autonomous region. Right.
Thanks Mike - will have to listen at work, as am hustling to the transporters.
Trade well all.
C
......a little ethnic cleansing to clean up the race. Becoming a "world power" sure has its inconveniences. Civil strife, wars, imported sympathies........ah the fun............. /snark off
Good Morning. There will be many unforeseen consequences to the World's Policeman coming down with epilepsy, an undetermined terminal neurological disease, and a chronic gambling affliction.
I sure like this edit feature.
I wonder what's going on with all of those housing bulls and realtors who told me rents would be sky-high by now? Idiots.
Am I missing something here?
First they tell us that there is a million plus unsold housing which represents maybe a year's inventory.
Now they tell us that apartment rental vacancy is up.
So if there is an oversupply of houses and rental units, where are people living? What happened to the people that left their house and apartment?
Do the math,these people must be living somewhere. Maybe Wall Street packaged and sold them.
Muffin Top: they're long the Dow
My letter carrier tells me that mail volume is way down. Is this true nationally? Suspect mebbe so.
edit: yep down 16% in January 2009, prolly continued decline since
........This brought even a smile to my face this morning, and I don't recommend YouTube sites.......
The Silver Bear Cafe
I believe that BHO now has no choice but to bail out the state of california..
I believe that to not, crushes the TBTF mantra, as the state of cali is such a large "employer" and has so much dependency on it, more than AIG, more than GM, more than Chrysler.
If BHO leaves Cali alone and they come out of it by say, conroling spending, thats another loss for congressional and BHO spending your way out of it...
If Cali doesnt cut spending then they have no choice but to raise crippiling taxes...another no win..
so maybe "as cali so goes the nation"?
..................N Korea started DDoS attack against S Korea and US instead of nuclear war ......now S Korean finacial system is in chaos ......just now NASDAQ closed Korean system connection...........
Those darn sneaky Petes in North Korea....
I was thinking about CA as I drove in.
Nothing will change there, and anywhere, until the citizens minds get reset. At firs I was looking at it as a gov problem. Thats wrong.
The problem is also demographics as far as the voting block. You have a huge one that believes it spent years coloring between the lines. Now, it wants to hang the picture up on the refrigerator and kick back.
It is not a spending problem. A tax problem. It is a citizen mentality problem.
Since the only way to reboot minds is usually through, oh less than pleasant methods, then the conclusion has to be CA is doomed and MJ is burning in hell.
Why Banks Prefer Foreclosures Over Mortgage Modifications
Why Banks Prefer Foreclosures over Mortgage Modifications -- Seeking Alpha
" If this is, in fact, the case, then the problem facing policymakers is much more difficult than previously imagined."
It seemed difficult enough before I read this article.
Ben
If houses are empty and apartments are empty, I think we've had "aliens" returning home. This will result in there being less pent up demand in the future.
........The current Admin has sit down at the table and "started playing". As he spends more, drinkks more, and loses more, the inclination is to do more of the same. Hopefully he won't get up before the game breaks up - he's already spent our rent money, food money and car payments for the next 30-years. He won't need to come home again, we can do without him.
Bluzer wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 1:31 am:
Can someone explain this?
This should give you a good idea...and here I am needing to pick up some cheap furniture. How convenient.
BSR,
I am really surprised that more folks (Right, media, assistance groups) havent been vocal about Friday night date nights, "when during the day they all talk about how folks have had to curb their going out, etc....
BSR: he best not come home, the large angry woman called the electorate will have at him come 2010--elections have a way of being statements, I know, I know, all you cynics out there--watch the power shift after that.
And if past is prologue, it should coincide m/l with something that resembles a bottom (2011--2012). So, they'll patch up a few things, let the overall situation deteriorate and then 2012 comes just in time for them to trot out some geezer spouting Reaganisms and blue sky morning platitudes.
Interesting opinion piece BSR...
Urban Arson » Blog Archive » No He Can’t
Nice taped interbiew with Phil Donahue interviewing Milton Freidman and It sounds like politically and economically it could have been taped yesterday. Shows how timeless yet circular our nation really is...
Greed Runs the World - Video
Well, as long as the new restaurant is leasing, it's not so risky. They are saving on tenant improvements, and can probably get a shorter term lease.
Mel says "If houses are empty and apartments are empty, I think we've had "aliens" returning home. This will result in there being less pent up demand in the future."
Yes, this is part of the problem. Another part is that household size is rising. More roommates, and people moving back in with their parents. Those big McMansions which had two people can often comfortably hold 8-10.
I have seen estimates of 1 million less immigrants in the US than in 2007. I'm getting the feeling that must be heavily concentrated in CA and AZ. I also think the number is low. Over time, we will also have more and more H1 and student visas expiring. In a bad economy, most of them will go back home.
" Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 8:03 am
Hu leaves G8 summit to "contain" unrest. Xinjiang is supposedly an autonomous region. Right."
Anybody out there still think the Yuan is a candidate for a reserve currency?
"
Jay.D.. (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/8/2009 - 8:26 am
..................N Korea started DDoS attack against S Korea and US instead of nuclear war ......now S Korean finacial system is in chaos ......just now NASDAQ closed Korean system connection..........."
Any IT folks out there? Is there any reason why DoS attacks can't be "shut off" at the routers that handle overseas connections to the internet? Couldn't we then just rely on mirrors at Google, et al until the threat can be dealt with? Obviously, I only know enough about this stuff to be dangerous; please help
@ Volcker - 5:27 am
I am a part time rural carrier - the mail volume is indeed WAAAY down. Our salaries are figured on mail volume and the volume count this March was devastating. Our routes were cut back along with our pay, and things haven't improved much since. so much for green shoots. The mail day following July 4 is usually a bear, what with two or three days of sorted mail coming to us on Monday. This year it was way down, not much more than a normal Monday. July is usually a heavy catalog month, as retailers start gearing up early for Xmas. Not so this year.
The PO has been laying off administrative personnel, there is a hiring freeze on worker bees like us and early retirement has been pushed to the max at all levels. Two years ago I would have recommended a career here, but not now.
this co called 'recovery' is artificial
We are borrowing the stimulus money. More stimulus is equivalent to throwing gasoline on the fire. We can't possible pay the debt back... legitimately. The government will use inflation to cheapen the debt. Unfortunately, this will hurt the poor, the working class, and the elderly on fixed income. Reckless government spending is not an American value. Interesting Finance & Economic articles
Stimulus is a joke of a concept; it doesn't end up with real economic growth in the long term. Even the New Deal failed to increase private investment. It wasn't until 1941 that domestic private investment reached 1929 levels. The fact that the first stimulus has failed to stop the bleeding yet isn't surprising. Our government deficit for the year which is over 20% of GDP (when the omnibus bill, first stimulus, bailouts, and on-budget deficit are summed) is unsustainable and something's gotta give, whether it be the lenders or the interest rates.
hat tip to Interesting Finance & Economic articles