The dshort chart looks ugly. Maybe we should call it the go-short chart.

Anyone know how much the fed purchased at today's auction?

From the last thread...

EDIT: @sm_landlord

It means that Glodman may now be trading against their own software. Could be real expensive.

Now that would truly be sweet karma.

Now that would truly be sweet karma.

How fitting, that it would be overwhelmed by Skynet, with no way to pull the plug.

But, the reality? I think the story is overblown. The guy's a development lead who thought he'd take his system with him to his new employer. He pissed his pants, rolled and confessed when the FBI came for him.

This graph is from Doug Short of

I thought the Shorts could publish only on days the market is up.

Anyone else here think that, when all is said and done, we're in bigger trouble than we were in 1973?

"H&S in the indices. Dow measures to about 7500. If the S&P pops the neckline at 880, it would measure to about 800. "

Funny, Rosenberg was on CNBC earlier calling for a trading range in the S&P with a median around 800.

Rosenberg On The 40% Dead Cat Bounce | zero hedge

iceman,

The duration of a recession is significant to its severity. So yes, much worse than '73.

We'll encounter some inflexion points that may take us to GDII quickly. Or, if we're lucky, we'll have a no-growth grind wind-down for a decade or two.

--bh

Ghost Boxes

BISMARCK, N.D. - Hundreds of anxious shoppers watched as city officials used power saws to cut 2-by-4s during Home Depot Inc.’s ribbon-cutting ceremony for its 102,700-square-foot building center in Bismarck. Less than three years later, the home improvement retailer shuttered the underperforming store, leaving a big orange empty eyesore on the outskirts of town.

The building, sitting derelict and silent on acres of asphalt, is now listed for sale at $10.5 million. But there’s been little interest in the near windowless warehouse-like building that occupies a lot the size of a dozen football fields.

I think much worse than '73.

That was about the US leaving the gold standard and OPEC's subsequent embargo of the US and Australia. The taps could've been turned on again at any second. This time, the credit taps have seen their maximum capacity for a while.

anyone know how much $$$ Macklowe actually put down on this property, and whether DB was the only creditor ?

1561 - (.892 * 1561) = 168

S&P 168 !!!

Finally, a news worth watching:

GDP to grow faster in Q2: former banker

China's economy is humming and poised to grow more.

"China's GDP growth in the second quarter of this year will be higher than that of the first quarter, and the 8-percent growth target set for this year is likely to be achieved, a former central bank governor said Friday."

This marks one of the key indicator I've been monitoring -- namely whether "China can survive, and survive well, despite a collapsing US consumer."

I've said it before, the lever to change the current USA status-quo lies outside of USA, not with our fed/govt. They can pass new laws till their face turns purple, it won't change a thing.

China's ability to grow in the face of US weakness is telling. It positions China strongly FOR the eventual collapse of the dollar. When US consumer is no longer the relevant force in the world, you can bet that the peg will be broken.

In other words, when China grows to a point that breaking the peg hurts China less than it hurts USA; then there's no further reason to subsidize the US consumers.

Once the peg is gone, it'll be like someone releasing a tsunami. All the currency inflation force, all at once.

This development is more key than anything else being proposed / happening so far.

hc
This scenario will never happen.
The Federal Government and Federal Reserve are too big to fail.

//snark off//

looks around

is it over yet?

Some guy named Garth Turner is posting on my blog about copyright issues. Seems he came out with a book called "after the crash" a few months after I started the blog.

I am not sure what to make of it.

holy crap, the former Minster of National Revenue and leadership candidate for the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada just threatened to sue me for the name of my blog!

mark D-

Since the data is so obfuscated and prone to "massaging"...go with the Indirect bidder # for what they did....unfortunately there is no real way to know exactly what they say they are not doing....

Ciao
MS

hoop-

just tryin' to scare you. Let them follow through. How long has your domain existed? That should settle it fairly fast.....maybe not in your favor but....

Ciao
MS

"Some guy named Garth Turner is posting on my blog about copyright issues. Seems he came out with a book called "after the crash" a few months after I started the blog."

That guy is a joke. He just wants your domain name, probably. Let him hire a lawyer if he thinks he has a case.

Hoops, at least you can defend yourself

I am back in business, shorting the stocks I have on my sh!!t list.
Since I like CR and CR readers, I share with you one of them, CHUX

@iceman:
"Problem is, where does the end demand come from? Their capacity is way beyond what they can absorb with domestic demand."

This was my conundrum, until comparing to real "on the real China" affluent Chinese that I have contacts with.

1. They have shortages in BMW. You have to pay almost 50K to "move to the front of the line" to buy a BMW.
2. Buying things from PCs to clothings, etc, are actually MORE expensive there than trying to buy them in USA. I thought originally that's it's an artifact of them supporting the peg; but other reasons that I cannot discount, is that people local to China are BIDDING UP their prices, so there's no reason to go on sale or lower prices domestically in China. Hence the "more expensive" phenomenon.
3. The dearth of export industries has actually created an economic incentive to retool or re target for internal markets. A lot of the economic activities booming now isn't export oriented anymore, which is good.
4. China is now experimenting with settling trades in Yuan. Many countries are on board, esp those with a trade surplus with China. This will eventually create a (good) problem for china, as these excess yuan will need to find a home. Can you say China Treasuries Market, denominated in yuan? That will be another nail in the coffin for USD.
5. Oh and I forgot to mention, China has 20% of the world's population. Where's the demand you ask? Once the self-sustaining economic engine starts that provides growth for the country itself, the demand is a problem that solves itself. USA is only 4.5% of the world's population. KEY IS JOBS/SUSTAINABILITY, which they're slowly solving, in spite of USA.

I'll have to wait and see, but right now there's a conscious, coordinated effort to play tai chi with USA and reach for the end game -- Where USA is exhausted, and China's not.

Hoops - Yup. You have a decent defense.

I'm not a fan of his... but I am sure he's the type to read this blog. He also had a "Money" related local access TV show.

Technically, both of you are early because the crash is still taking place.....

" MS (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 4:38 pm

hoop-

just tryin' to scare you. Let them follow through. How long has your domain existed? That should settle it fairly fast.....maybe not in your favor but....

Ciao
MS"

Get a lawyer (despite the fact that I detest those people). Copyright law can have some funky twists and turns. If this fellow can demonstrate that he's added substantial value to the "trademark" and that you haven't, then he may be able to force you to give up rights to it. On the other hand, I thought it was not permissible to copyright or trademark an English word or phrase, but on the other hand, the law could be very different in Canada or elsewhere.
Remember, the singer Madonna was able to wrest the rights to Madonna.com from a convent of nuns (something like the Sisters of Madonna or such), though they had started their website a decade or more before Madonna's interest in the domain. It sucks, it isn't fair, but it happens.
xxxxx

Green shoots of energy savings!

Obama does not want you to save energy. He wants you to throw away the stuff you have and buy shiny new energy-efficient stuff.

"If this fellow can demonstrate that he's added substantial value to the "trademark" and that you haven't, then he may be able to force you to give up rights to it."

For "After The Crash"?

He also has a book called "Greater Fool". Are you suggesting he could also trademark that?

This guy is fishing for a domain name.

Hoops, Im not a lawyer, but Ive had direct experience with exactly what you are dealing with regarding some guy claiming copyright.

A year or so back, I had someone claim they were going to sue me for damages, and file CRIMINAL charges with the District Atty for simply OWNING domain names that they would like to purchase. Nevermind that there was no commercial activity on the domains, or any service that remotely resembled the product being claimed as violating copyright(this is the important part). People like this are just looking for a strongarm way to take what does NOT belong to them. Do not give in. Tell him to go wipe his ass with his letters and threats, as thats all they are good for.

*I posted their 'letter' with all these threats online, and amazingly Ive never heard a single peep from them again. Granted I did get tens of thousands of hits from people researching their company name
Heres the letter for your reading enjoyment - Caton Commercial | Unprofessional Cease and Desist Letter, Sent to Wrong Address | Incompetence | Limestone Brewery | Plainfield Time Machine

*Yes, it was a commercial real estate company who though this letter was a 'good idea' to send.

As domain values increase this kind of problem will become more and more common. You have been looking for a non-corporate growth business. By the time you defend your own domain you will certainly be up to speed on the relevant legal issues. There will be lots of potential customers needing help

" JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 4:49 pm

Remember, the singer Madonna was able to wrest the rights to Madonna.com from a convent of nuns

Wow. Even an atheist like me believes that stealing websites from nuns will send you to hell."

LOL- Was there any doubt?

Cinco
Check out the handy glossary or move your cursor over the word in question.

BS. Nuns my a**. She got it from a pornographer.

LOL. That makes a WHOLE lot more sense.

Sorry to inform you all, but I once wrote a song called "Crash." So I think all of the above-named sites actually owe me a pretty penny.
Not to mention that short story I wrote called, "After the ..."

And my good friend, Eleanor Rigby, might want to look into locking in the revenue streams from her magnum opus, "Canadian Authors: A Contradiction In Terms?"

I wouldn't really worry too much though Hoopajoops. Circular 34 of the US Copyright office clearly states that a name, title or logo can't be copyrighted. If he had a trademark, he'd have said so. Sic lawyers on him anyway, just to watch him blanch and run.

"BS. Nuns my a**. She got it from a pornographer.

Madonna.com embroiled in domain ownership spat :
News : Hardware - ZDNet Asia "

Oops! My mistake. I heard a different story in the MSM. I don't feel bad about it now. However, the tenet about adding value still holds. From your referenced article:
"Parisi's struggle to maintain Madonna.com isn't unique. A new coalition says legitimate mom-and-pop e-businesses are losing their domain names to larger companies at an alarming rate. "

" HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 4:52 pm

Cinco
Check out the handy glossary or move your cursor over the word in question."

Wow! Handy

" Assume Crash Positions (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 4:53 pm

"Nightstand cowboy" is also sometimes referred to by its initials: B.O.B. (battery operated boyfriend). Hope that clears things up."

Maybe you should add that one to the glossary as well

Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 4:55 pm
Is it true that the Governator will place two IOUs on Michael Jackon's eyes?

Ha, ha! More like a stack of IOUs on each eye!

We call them politicians

lol +1

Oh, I call them banksters, politicians are just tools.

"beer_motor - Specialty? "

Who do you ride with?

ah, a criminal lawyer defending DUI claims..

As for Hoops' copyright troll, the guy has an uphill battle if he's trying to make a cybersquatting case against you. First of all, he doesn't seem to know what he's talking about. Domain name issues aren't about copyright -- it's a trademark issue.

And something tells me he's going to have a tough time demonstrating that you registered the domain name with bad faith intent to profit from the goodwill of a trademark belonging to him. Particularly given that you started using your URL prior to publication of his book. Not to mention that no one named Garth Turner has either a registered trademark or a pending application for a trademark before the USPTO. And a search of the terms "After" and "Crash" on the UPSTO's database came up with only one trademark registration that had nothing to do with economic woes. I'd ignore the guy unless and until his lawyer sends you some sort of formal nasty gram. If that happens, feel free to contact me as well. I can give you some advice on how to tell him to pound sand.

I love you guys.

"ACP -- I haven't seen you here since last fall ...."

I've been in and out. Circumstances since last fall have made it seem like a really good time to make myself as indispensible as possible at work.

Nice video of Milton freidman and Phil Donahue on Greed

Greed Runs the World - Video

unfortunatly, Phil never answered and obviously nothing has changed, this could have been taped yesterday.

Hoopajoops,

The really sad part is that this guy wrote his book, well, AFTER the crash, so the title is not really that "creative", shall we say. Now, your website came BEFORE the crash, so I would argue that you actually created a whole lot more value for the name than he did.

VATICAN CITY (Reuters) - Pope Benedict called on Tuesday for a "world political authority" to manage the global economy and for more government regulation of national economies to pull the world out of the current crisis and avoid a repeat.

Maybe the pope should have a little more faith...

"And something tells me he's going to have a tough time demonstrating that you registered the domain name with bad faith intent to profit from the goodwill of a trademark belonging to him. Particularly given that you started using your URL prior to publication of his book. Not to mention that no one named Garth Turner has either a registered trademark or a pending application for a trademark before the USPTO. And a search of the terms "After" and "Crash" on the UPSTO's database came up with only one trademark registration that had nothing to do with economic woes. I'd ignore the guy unless and until his lawyer sends you some sort of formal nasty gram. If that happens, feel free to contact me as well. I can give you some advice on how to tell him to pound sand."

LOL! Well said.

"All work and no play (on CR) keeps ACP gainfully employed."

ACP knocks urgently on the laminated, faux-wood-like substance that serves as his desk/work area.

Maybe the pope should have a little more faith...

Finally, a use CA IOUs.

Buy them discounted on Ebay and use them as tithes!

ACP better on and not under!

"ACP better on and not under!"

Ha! Indeed.

nova, its still available. It is not too late to register your domain and receive veiled threats from ex-canadian politicians.

pardon me, ex-politician canadians.

BTW, just for completeness, I re-ran the database check at CIPO (Canada's analog of the USPTO). Nothing there either.

"We've already seen an expansion of domain suffixes when the outcry was great enough."

But, but, but... They aren't making any more domain names!

I wanna know if Dennis Kneal is actually 100% long in his PA.

I wanna know if Dennis Kneal is actually 100% long in his PA.

I want to know if CNBC directed Kneale to make the bull case or if Kneale is speaking his own thoughts.

In any event, Kneale is too stupid to have money. Fools and their money.

Being stupid and having money are not mutually exclusive. Prime example: Paris Hilton.

He has, but not, I think, so much in people.

Pavel,

That statement is in conflict with itself. Devout doubts?

"Pavel,

That statement is in conflict with itself. Devout doubts? "

I don't want to get theological on a finance blog, but no, there's no conflict there. Ever since Jesus was betrayed, tortured and killed we've had no illusions about people. Our faith is elsewhere.

"Maybe the pope would like Catholic Churches to begin paying taxes?"

If they made a profit why not? I doubt that many do, if any. What comes in goes out in charitable activities and upkeep of plant, services. Roofs leak. Employees get paid.

If they made a profit why not? I doubt that many do, if any.

Who cares about profit????

They don't pay property taxes either.

It's a retarded loophole.

"They don't pay property taxes either."

They might some day, if the culture becomes anti-religious enough.

Personally, I think the Church has always been healthiest when it's in the catacombs.

"the Progressive Conservative Party..."

There's your problem right there. The man is clearly insane.

It's nearly 6 and I am hopeless far behind again.

How loooow can it go? Is the non GS mkt too downish
for GS to maniputate? Now, there's a scary thought!!

The Church gets the tax exemption because of the separation of Church and State.
I think the pope's comments today calling for a "world political authority" have obliterated that line.
Time to tax the Church.

Hi Liz,
Glad you made it back from the trenches...

With regard to IOUs, part of me is hoping CA flat out ignores the SEC, the Feds and everyone else.

It's not like anyone at the federal level follows the rules (SS, pensions, deficits, fed buying non-gov't guaranteed securities, banking fraud, securities fraud, AAA, lobbying, etc.).

It's a financial free-for-all.

I'm hearing more and more the evidence of stupidity.

The stupid thing of the day is a lady who made a 1st mortgage on
here house and give it, with no backing but an iou to her worthless
relative. . .who is not returning phone calls. . . There is still equity,
I suggested she try an fha refi which would lower the interest
rate tremendously.

I don't understand this stuff. I would avoid like the devil doing
even a conservative deal with a relative. I would feel all kinds
of guilty if it didn't work out.

Digging graves would be a shovel-ready project.

Blind Spot

Blind Spot is a documentary film that illustrates the current oil and energy crisis that our world is facing. Whatever measures of ignorance, greed, wishful thinking, we have put ourselves at a crossroad, which offers two paths with dire consequences. If we continue to burn fossil fuels we will choke the life out of the planet and if we don’t our way of life will collapse.

A world banker would just mess the world up faster and worser.

Hummm, doesn't the Vatican have a rather bad record on this.

Banco Ambrosio or something?

" Assume Crash Positions (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 5:22 pm
But, but, but... They aren't making any more domain names!"

Buy now or be priced out forever-

"The building, sitting derelict and silent on acres of asphalt, is now listed for sale at $10.5 million. But there’s been little interest in the near windowless warehouse-like building that occupies a lot the size of a dozen football fields."

I keep saying -- though not here -- Legalize marijuana. Make that puppy into the world's largest grow house; grade the output it, license it, sell it; divert the profits from Mexican gangs into good American hands and put a lot of criminals (and gangbangers, and lawyers, and war-on-drugs bureaucrats) out of work and off the budget.

Yeaaa, Dobbs.

" Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 6:04 pm
...... Legalize marijuana. Make that puppy into the world's largest grow house; grade the output it, license it, sell it; divert the profits from Mexican gangs into good American hands and put a lot of criminals (and gangbangers, and lawyers, and war-on-drugs bureaucrats) out of work and off the budget."

Spoken like a WF Buckley conservative

I like Mort Zuckerman .... I respect Mort Zuckerman as a businessman. But why the hell did Mort Zuckerman buy the GM builing last year at a price I thought was waaaaaay to high based on a broken credit system. Why did Zuckerman not see this ? I believe he purchased 2 other buildings in that deal and had mid-east help, but still. Did he not see this crises affecting CRE in a big way ?

@ Bob
This country was founded and prospered when many drugs were legally available.
Cannabis, Cocaine, opium, etc.

The Drug war is an epic failure but continues.
Maybe the STATE has a vested interest in creating "enemies" to justify its ever expanding existence?

So the STATE thinks I cannot decide for myself what to consume or not, but then I'm allowed to vote for our "leadership"???
WTF?

I'm catching up and see DC1000 is present. Welcome back. People have been asking about you.

More like an electron free for all Broward!

lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 10:05 pm
I think the building is very beautiful.

You can put the picture in your living room or screensaver but I am not so sure about the need for more CRE.

Agreed, cent, but it is beautiful

Hah, hah, less than 1000 people. Wonder what the tv viewing stats were on
the Michael Jackson free for all tv events. I watched a few minutes of clips of
him dancing that that was it for me.

I hope you are now 1001!

The U.S. should consider drafting a second stimulus package focusing on infrastructure projects because the $787 billion approved in February was “a bit too small,” said Laura Tyson, an adviser to President Barack Obama.

More "leadership-by-trial-balloon" that is so far the hallmark of the Obama admin.

when California says the IOUs aren't worth anything and they aren't redeemable..

Won't happen because the IOUs would be a one-trick pony.

Better to let the outcome remain ambiguous for as long as possible.

You'll know things are desperate when LA gangs do drive-by shootings by throwing pieces of paper out the window that each say, "IOU one bullet."

state workers can't be paid in IOUs, but from what i understand, California is paying cities funds that it owes in IOUs... if these cities run out of cash, then what happens to these employees? the cities themselves are going to issue IOUs? Or lay off more workers... or declare BK...

if these cities run out of cash, then what happens to these employees?

I bet you find you can buy a nice firetruck or police cruiser really, really cheaply.

broward got it exactly right--keep it murky lurky and never settled for sure

Words spoken in stupidity or greatness are both drawn from the same breath.......MM

Hoopajoops:

i don't think you can copyright a title, anyway (if memory serves).

CNBC Interview with Bryan Marsal, CEO of Lehman Brothers Holdings

"Do they come with a stick of bubble gum?"

Buy a pack of five double bubble and get an IOU for free.

Does it not strike it odd that one of the worlds economies (ie CA) has to pay its debts w/ IOUs. Now if this was say, Bulgaria, would IOUs be accepted?. (Not to compare CA w/ Bulgaria, God forbid)