I don't understand. Aren't both of these effects of the overall state of the economy? Why would it be a surprise that there's a generally positive correlation with perhaps a slight lag?
This is like that Career Builder chart where the monkeys just turn the chart upside down to show growth. It's all about perception. Office vacancy is performing better than unemployment. See how easy that was?
There a datum that I'd love to have but don't know if it exists. "Square feet per employee" and/or "square feet per dollar revenue." I contend that one of the reasons we don't see higher vacancies is because of floor area underutilization. Many companies bought/leased too much in anticipation of growth. Some companies like Home depot strategically tied up CRE to prevent competition in certain areas.
On the converse we can expect as companies seek cost savings for them to start "dense packing" their surviving operations.
FDIC is moving on up, to a deluxe CRE in the sky....
Over the objections of Lower Manhattan elected officials, the F.D.I.C. on July 1 signed a 10-year lease for 100,000 square feet at the Empire State Building
"We plan to relocate the New York regional office and field offices to this location from the current building at 20 Exchange Street prior to the lease expiration on December 31, 2010," said David Barr, a spokesman for the F.D.I.C. The Observer first reported the government's interest in the building in May.
About 250 employees will make the move from 20 Exchange, which the landlord is converting from office to residential, to the Empire State Building, which is undergoing an incredible $500 million renovation.
Also in early May, Representative Jerrold Nadler, State Senator Daniel Squadron and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver sent a letter to F.D.I.C. Chairman Sheila Bair condemning the possible relocation:
“In a troubled time, a move by the F.D.I.C. out of Lower Manhattan raises the potential for significant cost increases, an inappropriate burden when government at all levels must exercise extraordinary fiscal discipline,” read the letter.
The owners of 11 Times Square broke ground for the 40-story skyscraper back in May 2007 when the real estate market was the tightest it had been in years. In a market with a puny 5.4% vacancy rate, the owners projected the state-of-the-art tower would command an average rent of $110 a square foot.
Two years later, the vacancy rate has swelled to 10.5%, and the owners of the speculative, still tenant-less building, scheduled to open in early 2010, are willing to deal at $80 a square foot.
All eyes are on 11 Times Square, which over the coming months will provide a referendum on the health of the commercial real estate market in New York, where rents have fallen anywhere from 25% to 45% from $72.97 a square foot during third quarter 2008.
The S&P 500 could drop down to as low as 315 if earning and PE ratios do what they did during the Great Depression.
"The moral of the story of course is that a PE ratio is pretty meaningless by itself. What matters is where earnings will be in the future. The best guide to that is simply mean reversion. Corporate profits tend to revert to about 6% of GDP. They recently peaked at almost twice that. If they bottom at half this average that would be a 75% fall just like in the Depression. If that happens we might expect the S&P to fall to at least a PE of 15. The S&P 500 earnings peaked about about 85 so a 75% decline would be 21 and a 15 PE would bring the index to a horrifying 315 a 65% decline from here." FN
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose as investors speculated the worst recession in 50 years has further to run and the government sold $35 billion of three-year notes at the lowest yield since May.
Today’s auction is the second of a record four this week totaling $73 billion. An investor class that includes foreign central banks bought 54 percent of the notes offered, more than the 43.8 percent at the last auction of the securities. Stocks fell. An adviser to President Barack Obama said the economy is “worse than we forecast” and the government should consider drafting a second stimulus package.
"July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose as investors speculated the worst recession in 50 years has further to run and the government sold $35 billion of three-year notes at the lowest yield since May."
Yup, nothing like a little equities sell-off to set the stage for tomorrow's 10yr auction. Gotta stock demand somehow.
@Rob Dawg - There were some interesting posts on your blog a couple weeks back on this next target. I missed the blow-off high but the SPY Aug 89 puts...
Absent the fed's support, we'd likely be at 315 right now. Sooner or later, the credit losses are going to have to be recognized. I won't be holding stocks or risky assets when that day of reckoning arrives.
The fed seems to think the losses can be slowly reckoned with over time. I'm not so sure.
Back about 15 years, when office space was going begging in Silicon Valley, I briefly worked for an outfit whose landlord offered them an extra floor at no extra charge, if they simply renewed their five year lease at the same terms as last time. I wonder if there's some of that going on now.
Oh yeah, and they were only renting one floor to start with.
I agree AS...I'll post my position....Cash! and 10% to 20% in metals...cash is king at the moment, lot of folks out there have zero cash on hand.........No I am not a Guns and Ammo redneck....but I do own many and have the ammo in cases....nuff said.
Slow food stocks I'll admit, shelves are still full...besides that I am not a big eater....
Did anyone notice that apparently Housing Evangelist Gary Watts is now finally back to being Scary Gary and is now proclaiming further doom in the real estate market? Looks like he's presenting some of the arguments that have been long since known to readers of CR. Now I wonder what made him change his mind after so long ....
P.S. First post. Have been a reader for some time now.
Well then California could have picked any date for them to be due, no?
What is special about the date Oct 1st?
Per wiki:
Oct 1st 1928 – The Soviet Union introduces its First Five-Year Plan.
Oct 1st 1938 – Germany annexes the Sudetenland.
Oct 1st 1949 – The People's Republic of China is declared by Mao Zedong.
Oct 1st 1957 – First appearance of "In God We Trust" on U.S. paper currency.
What's this, Mish?
No more ranting about "survival of the fittest"?
Clearly these banks are the most fit of all, seeing as they have the power to plunder any and all comers!
So OIL has been going down for 5 days. CR it went down right after your OIL thread, you must be a market maker : ) .
p.s. So kids, let's start a guessing game on who is driving the sell off and who will get caught with a tanker or ten while future prices will collapse. LoL Wonder if hi frequency trading scandal has anything to do with that, : )
Green Shoots (nice day) everyone!!!
Trident writes;
"Did anyone notice that apparently Housing Evangelist Gary Watts is now finally back to being Scary Gary and is now proclaiming further doom in the real estate market?"
"I must've missed that bit when Germany, France & Italy decided to stop making things and went of a FIRE kick."
Noticed I said 'most' of europe. Germany and France can't support the lack of economic prowess of their partners in EU, i.e Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal. Wait until England tries to sneak into the EU; that'll be hilariously tragic.
"Please, "go galt" already and stop hovering around internet cafes imparting such "insight". "
I have gone galt already, and have declared it many times. Are you the sucker that's paying 50-60% taxes for the many city services the internet cafe gets? Not including the inflation/robbing of your savings?
"Dolt"
Now now, no need to call me name and show your lack of self control dealing with anonymous users on the internet.
Back about 15 years, when office space was going begging in Silicon Valley, I briefly worked for an outfit whose landlord offered them an extra floor at no extra charge, if they simply renewed their five year lease at the same terms as last time. I wonder if there's some of that going on now.
At my office we have 10% more space than we need and said we'd give the space back, landlord said it wasn't worth the construction effort and just knocked 10% off the rent.
I expect we'll see other buildings offer to pay moving expenses.
Thanks for the clarification. I read the statement more carefully. They're protected. Should be interesting since the local government outlays are significant, next to private contactors. I still can't find a clean breakdown of contractors & contract amounts (not as easy as fedbiz.com at least) for CA.
/snip
Payment categories protected by the State Constitution, federal law and court decisions will receive regular payments in July. All other general fund payments will be paid with IOUs. These include payments to local governments for social services, private contractors, state vendors, income and corporate tax refunds, and payments for State operations including legislative per diem.
/snip
Considering how easy it is to sort of counterfeit USD nowadays and Cali has decided to issue currency(let's call a spade a spade for arguments sake at the moment) that nobody's seen, wouldn't it be prudent to have a seven day hold on them?
All the banks would have to do in a measure of good faith would be to commit to not work the float on those IOU's until they clear.
---Please before you read this remember YOU VOTED THESE PEOPLE IN!----
Arizona state senator Sylvia Allen thinks the earth is 6000 years old
Arizona State Senator Sylvia Allen (R-Snowflake), arguing in favor of a bill to allow uranium mining north of the Grand Canyon, casually says that the earth is 6,000 years old, and therefore a little uranium mining isn't going to hurt anything.
The IOUs are basically worthless.
Why do any of you posters believe the state of California is actually going to make good on them?
The Constitution?
Federal Law?
Court Rulings?
TPTB respect none of these things.
Note to HomeGnome, they have already failed...if it were not for the power of the printing press we would already be eating out of trash cans.
What makes us any different than another country..I know I know big missiles that go in the sky and go boom...big deal....we are broke...320% over and above our GDP....that right there is a double dog dare.
Lloyd: You're it.
Harry: You're it.
Lloyd: You're it, quitsies!
Harry: Anti-quitsies, you're it, quitsies, no anti-quitsies, no startsies!
Lloyd: You can't do that!
Harry: Can too!
Lloyd: Cannot, stamp it!
Harry: Can too, double stamp it, no erasies!
Lloyd: Cannot, triple stamp, no erasies, Touch blue make it true.
Harry: No, you can't do that... you can't triple stamp a double stamp, you can't triple stamp a double stamp! Lloyd!
Lloyd: [hands over ears] LA LA LA LA LA LA!
Harry: LLOYD! LLOYD! LLOYD!
We've lived through this before. The state is not BK, it's a political problem--DEM-REPUB clusterfuck. The recession makes things a bit worse, but the recession is not the cause of the political problem and the recession does not necessarily doom the state.
Those worried about collapse--it might take a while.
It may depend on where the lab is and who the funder is. It's like any questions you'd ask regarding state anything, it all depends because each dept is a different flavor of pain in the @ss.
I've had state fund that have been frozen since the bond block. Some have been released, others not so much. Then there is the question of whether he is cost sharing time or is he soft money funded, doe he have other grants that don't have restrictions, does he have a donor research account in good standing, and whether... you get the idea. It's a freaking policy ocean out there. I should make a freaking flow chart to show all the possible business rules and exceptions. Now if I could just manage to find a private firm who wants to pay for this kind of knowledge /sigh
Now if the project is fed or private sponsored, everything looks pretty good here.
I drove down the Broadway , SMC. There were 6 new half empty apartment buildings / condos. Talking about 'em shadow inventory. I think i'll go into 60/40 (%) deflation camp in the next 3 years.
Would be interesting to add DJ REIT index performance to see how REIT stocks did and where REIT prices peaked and troughed with the vacancy rate. Even more interesting if the data went back further. Unfortunately, with only two real points (two recessions), there isn't much of a conclusion you can draw from the chart. Scary picture, though, to be sure.
Deflationary Jane (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 2:44 pm
Code theft could cost Goldman millions, U.S. says
Millions is barely an accounting error. So the question is whether this story is much larger in implications, or chaff we're being pointed toward to arrest our attention from and obscure something worse that's going on. Cali implosion? MJ sure appeared at a convenient time, too...
Strong hopium in Detroit! Family in the Monroe area, mother-in-law works for a steel galvanizing plant, plant is running at 50% hoping for Chrysler to ramp back up. Strong hopium indeed. Weather was nice.
Glossary term
Don't stop believing-
Song by Journey recently covered by the feds, treasury, banks, reits, govt, news etc to induce hypnotic rally, best experienced with green shoots
Nemo?
Where is everybody?
More green chutes.
Looks like this is the first time the ue rate has seriously surpassed the vacancy rate
Pay attention to the different scales.
I don't understand. Aren't both of these effects of the overall state of the economy? Why would it be a surprise that there's a generally positive correlation with perhaps a slight lag?
comrade mike (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:35 pm
North Carolina stopped issueing tax refunds because of lack of cash.
Link? If that is true, then I may have to put multiple states on my Budget News Crisis Watch '09
just as I suspected, more evidence of the coming hyper-inflation
This is like that Career Builder chart where the monkeys just turn the chart upside down to show growth. It's all about perception. Office vacancy is performing better than unemployment. See how easy that was?
There a datum that I'd love to have but don't know if it exists. "Square feet per employee" and/or "square feet per dollar revenue." I contend that one of the reasons we don't see higher vacancies is because of floor area underutilization. Many companies bought/leased too much in anticipation of growth. Some companies like Home depot strategically tied up CRE to prevent competition in certain areas.
On the converse we can expect as companies seek cost savings for them to start "dense packing" their surviving operations.
JP-Yes, caught that after trying to post quickly to beat our ever present winner.
FDIC is moving on up, to a deluxe CRE in the sky....
Over the objections of Lower Manhattan elected officials, the F.D.I.C. on July 1 signed a 10-year lease for 100,000 square feet at the Empire State Building
"We plan to relocate the New York regional office and field offices to this location from the current building at 20 Exchange Street prior to the lease expiration on December 31, 2010," said David Barr, a spokesman for the F.D.I.C. The Observer first reported the government's interest in the building in May.
About 250 employees will make the move from 20 Exchange, which the landlord is converting from office to residential, to the Empire State Building, which is undergoing an incredible $500 million renovation.
Also in early May, Representative Jerrold Nadler, State Senator Daniel Squadron and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver sent a letter to F.D.I.C. Chairman Sheila Bair condemning the possible relocation:
“In a troubled time, a move by the F.D.I.C. out of Lower Manhattan raises the potential for significant cost increases, an inappropriate burden when government at all levels must exercise extraordinary fiscal discipline,” read the letter.
FDIC Signs Lease for Empire State Building | The New York Observer
The chart prompted this flashback...
Egon - "Don't cross the streams."
???? - "Why? What happens if we cross the streams?"
Egon - "That would be bad! Like end-of-world bad."
Mommy!
Rob Dawg,
I always am provoked to some novel thought by your posts. Two great ratios to go after. I mostly lurk here.
Quick someone wake Kermit, Elmo's digging in.
"dense packing" their surviving operations. RD
ha! Dense Pack - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Third attempt to clear and hold below 888, let's see how much push JPM has today.
More Manhattan CRE news....
The owners of 11 Times Square broke ground for the 40-story skyscraper back in May 2007 when the real estate market was the tightest it had been in years. In a market with a puny 5.4% vacancy rate, the owners projected the state-of-the-art tower would command an average rent of $110 a square foot.
Two years later, the vacancy rate has swelled to 10.5%, and the owners of the speculative, still tenant-less building, scheduled to open in early 2010, are willing to deal at $80 a square foot.
All eyes are on 11 Times Square, which over the coming months will provide a referendum on the health of the commercial real estate market in New York, where rents have fallen anywhere from 25% to 45% from $72.97 a square foot during third quarter 2008.
Real estate bellwether: 11 Times Square - Crain's New York Business
Earnings and PE ratios in the Great Depression
CertainRuin - a stock picker's record: Earnings and PE ratios in the Great Depression
The S&P 500 could drop down to as low as 315 if earning and PE ratios do what they did during the Great Depression.
"The moral of the story of course is that a PE ratio is pretty meaningless by itself. What matters is where earnings will be in the future. The best guide to that is simply mean reversion. Corporate profits tend to revert to about 6% of GDP. They recently peaked at almost twice that. If they bottom at half this average that would be a 75% fall just like in the Depression. If that happens we might expect the S&P to fall to at least a PE of 15. The S&P 500 earnings peaked about about 85 so a 75% decline would be 21 and a 15 PE would bring the index to a horrifying 315 a 65% decline from here." FN
Has MJ risen from the dead yet?
$4 million dollars for the MJ Memorial Crapfest.
Enjoy those IOUs, Suckers!
CR,
Thanks for putting this chart pr0n together after me asking last night.
Pretty scary that the charts have crossed paths.
I'm guessing, like in Ghostbusters, this is not a good thing.
SEC Accuses Provident Royalties Of Running $485 million Ponzi scheme
Which type of paper did the MJ funeral get?
The CA IOUs or the green Federal IOUs?
Stock market hope song playing right now..
YouTube - Journey - Don't Stop Believin'
Which type of paper did the MJ funeral get?
Neverland notes
YIKES! So much for a kermit appearance.
Thanks for overpaying your taxes, here is an IOU refund; redeemable in Oct.
We had to use the real cash for important things like the MJ crapfest.
Nice one, Elmer.
Comrade Elmer Fudd (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:00 pm
Has MJ risen from the dead yet?
The Gloved One lives on in our hearts forever. Ahhh, there's my Dow 8200, S&P 885. Seems everything is dying. Just gimme my 5 handle on oil.
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose as investors speculated the worst recession in 50 years has further to run and the government sold $35 billion of three-year notes at the lowest yield since May.
Today’s auction is the second of a record four this week totaling $73 billion. An investor class that includes foreign central banks bought 54 percent of the notes offered, more than the 43.8 percent at the last auction of the securities. Stocks fell. An adviser to President Barack Obama said the economy is “worse than we forecast” and the government should consider drafting a second stimulus package.
Treasuries Rise as Growth Outlook Tempers Debt Deluge Concern - Bloomberg.com
Man, this is getting good, Elmo is going blitzkrieg. Someone is twiddling thumbs today.
Re: California / previous thread
Cali fiscal year started July 1, not Oct 1 as some erroneously wrote
A CA bailout should provide a stick save!
"July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose as investors speculated the worst recession in 50 years has further to run and the government sold $35 billion of three-year notes at the lowest yield since May."
Yup, nothing like a little equities sell-off to set the stage for tomorrow's 10yr auction. Gotta stock demand somehow.
I wonder what kind of stick save is in store for today. Elmo sure started off with a 3:00 bang.
Cali fiscal year started July 1
Wow, and they're already issuing IOUs?
No wonder nobody wants to hold them.
@Rob Dawg - There were some interesting posts on your blog a couple weeks back on this next target. I missed the blow-off high but the SPY Aug 89 puts...
Thanks for the correction, Squidward
Shill,
Absent the fed's support, we'd likely be at 315 right now. Sooner or later, the credit losses are going to have to be recognized. I won't be holding stocks or risky assets when that day of reckoning arrives.
The fed seems to think the losses can be slowly reckoned with over time. I'm not so sure.
I'll ask the question again:
What is so important about Oct 2nd for redemption of the IOUs?
Wow, and they're already issuing IOUs
The new fiscal year is part of the WHY they're being issued.
Back about 15 years, when office space was going begging in Silicon Valley, I briefly worked for an outfit whose landlord offered them an extra floor at no extra charge, if they simply renewed their five year lease at the same terms as last time. I wonder if there's some of that going on now.
Oh yeah, and they were only renting one floor to start with.
"What is so important about Oct 2nd for redemption of the IOUs? "
That's the day after they become due. Seems unlikely they'll have any money then either, and so on that date it becomes...interesting.
What is so important about Oct 2nd for redemption of the IOUs?
I'm not sure, but believe they had to pick a term, so they picked 3 months.
down goes frazier
I agree AS...I'll post my position....Cash! and 10% to 20% in metals...cash is king at the moment, lot of folks out there have zero cash on hand.........No I am not a Guns and Ammo redneck....but I do own many and have the ammo in cases....nuff said.
Slow food stocks I'll admit, shelves are still full...besides that I am not a big eater....
Did anyone notice that apparently Housing Evangelist Gary Watts is now finally back to being Scary Gary and is now proclaiming further doom in the real estate market? Looks like he's presenting some of the arguments that have been long since known to readers of CR. Now I wonder what made him change his mind after so long ....
P.S. First post. Have been a reader for some time now.
Seems unlikely they'll have any money then either
but hopefully will have a budget
^VIX ticks up +4.55% today
broward, I think the get the LA IOUs. That's who is paying all the police officers.
"I'm not sure, but believe they had to pick a term, so they picked 3 months."
I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.
Oct. 2nd is the new Fiscal Year I believe...not that it makes a damn difference though.
Ciao
MS
N.B. Technically the CA warrants (aka Golden Bear Chits) say after Oct 2nd. How long after? Hmmmm.
@Mr. Sparkle thanks. Just remember I make spectacular mistakes too. Recap, on Jun 9th I called the then Dow 8800 as being 2000 points above support.
Dow today looks like a scene from "Victory at Sea". Fifth Fleet off Okinawa.
Well then California could have picked any date for them to be due, no?
What is special about the date Oct 1st?
Per wiki:
Oct 1st 1928 – The Soviet Union introduces its First Five-Year Plan.
Oct 1st 1938 – Germany annexes the Sudetenland.
Oct 1st 1949 – The People's Republic of China is declared by Mao Zedong.
Oct 1st 1957 – First appearance of "In God We Trust" on U.S. paper currency.
Interesting date to pick.
nice link for CA state employees statistics:
California State Controller's Office : State Employee Demographics
notice gross monthly wages of 1.4 Billion to be paid in IOUs, each month.
--bh
Oct. 2nd is the new Fiscal Year I believe.
No.
July 1 was the new Fiscal Year. Oct 1 is the Federal fiscal year. July 1 is California fiscal year.
"but hopefully will have a budget "
I'm not 100% sure. It seems right now the legislature is playing a $24 billion game of chicken with Obama. We'll see who blinks first.
I saw rabbits eating all the green shoots right to the roots.
may be they are waiting for the Fed's to make good on them?
Coincidental choice of dates No?
Ciao
MS
2:54 p.m.: Martin Luther King III: 'Michael Jackson was truly the best of what he was.'
sounds better if you don't read it twice
" shill (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 3:16 pm
.................
a Guns and Ammo redneck"
You say that like it's a BAD thing
Lol no Cinco-X its just when one talks of Guns on here they think your a redneck nanny...no offence hahah!
^VIX ticks up +4.55% today
Ha, I just checked that since I remembered the trader who placed a $850K trade on VIX 40 july calls a month ago.
.380 + 150 rounds
9mm +100 rounds
AK47 +1100 rounds
Should I buy a shotgun or some sunscreen?
@blackhat - they have to pay state employees in real $. And unemployment insurance.
But all contractors, suppliers, etc get IOUs.
My neighbor works for the UC system - he's getting a paycheck but he can't buy anything to run his lab.
Uh-Oh.
EvenMish is renouncing his religion....
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Tell Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Citigroup to Go to Hell
Every one of those blood sucking banks
What's this, Mish?
No more ranting about "survival of the fittest"?
Clearly these banks are the most fit of all, seeing as they have the power to plunder any and all comers!
Thanks for the chart Shill
he's getting a paycheck but he can't buy anything to run his lab.
Yeah but the "credit crunch" is fixed.
I read it here on CR.
Looks like that the stockmarket is smelling 2nd half recovery.
So OIL has been going down for 5 days. CR it went down right after your OIL thread, you must be a market maker : ) .
p.s. So kids, let's start a guessing game on who is driving the sell off and who will get caught with a tanker or ten while future prices will collapse. LoL Wonder if hi frequency trading scandal has anything to do with that, : )
Green Shoots (nice day) everyone!!!
Moody’s Downgrades $7.6bn of Jumbo RMBS
Moody’s Downgrades $7.6bn of Jumbo RMBS : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
Trident writes;
"Did anyone notice that apparently Housing Evangelist Gary Watts is now finally back to being Scary Gary and is now proclaiming further doom in the real estate market?"
He was certainly a raging bull not long ago.
This must be bullish for RE, right?
From last thread:
@Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich
"I must've missed that bit when Germany, France & Italy decided to stop making things and went of a FIRE kick."
Noticed I said 'most' of europe. Germany and France can't support the lack of economic prowess of their partners in EU, i.e Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal. Wait until England tries to sneak into the EU; that'll be hilariously tragic.
"Please, "go galt" already and stop hovering around internet cafes imparting such "insight". "
I have gone galt already, and have declared it many times. Are you the sucker that's paying 50-60% taxes for the many city services the internet cafe gets? Not including the inflation/robbing of your savings?
"Dolt"
Now now, no need to call me name and show your lack of self control dealing with anonymous users on the internet.
Back about 15 years, when office space was going begging in Silicon Valley, I briefly worked for an outfit whose landlord offered them an extra floor at no extra charge, if they simply renewed their five year lease at the same terms as last time. I wonder if there's some of that going on now.
At my office we have 10% more space than we need and said we'd give the space back, landlord said it wasn't worth the construction effort and just knocked 10% off the rent.
I expect we'll see other buildings offer to pay moving expenses.
ucgal,
Thanks for the clarification. I read the statement more carefully. They're protected. Should be interesting since the local government outlays are significant, next to private contactors. I still can't find a clean breakdown of contractors & contract amounts (not as easy as fedbiz.com at least) for CA.
/snip
Payment categories protected by the State Constitution, federal law and court decisions will receive regular payments in July. All other general fund payments will be paid with IOUs. These include payments to local governments for social services, private contractors, state vendors, income and corporate tax refunds, and payments for State operations including legislative per diem.
/snip
--bh
Somewhat OT more related to the last thread. I just booked a night in Chicago for the 1st week in August at The Palmer House - a Hilton property.
$163.18 per night
I can't remember the last time I got a room in Chicago for under $200. It's been a few years...
EDITED DUE TO INABILITY TO CONSTRUCT A LEGIBLE SENTENCE
Considering how easy it is to sort of counterfeit USD nowadays and Cali has decided to issue currency(let's call a spade a spade for arguments sake at the moment) that nobody's seen, wouldn't it be prudent to have a seven day hold on them?
All the banks would have to do in a measure of good faith would be to commit to not work the float on those IOU's until they clear.
Ambassador East, in Chicago, for $140 a night a few weeks back.
Black hat, go here: California State Controller's Office : Frequently Asked Questions about Registered Warrants (IOUs) and click on line Line 8 or Line 9 to find who gets paid in $ and who in IOU's.
It does seem surprising that we aren't going to way overshoot the '90-'91 recession...yeah, looks like Elmo is out front this time.
---Please before you read this remember YOU VOTED THESE PEOPLE IN!----
Arizona state senator Sylvia Allen thinks the earth is 6000 years old
Arizona State Senator Sylvia Allen (R-Snowflake), arguing in favor of a bill to allow uranium mining north of the Grand Canyon, casually says that the earth is 6,000 years old, and therefore a little uranium mining isn't going to hurt anything.
The Lippard Blog: Arizona state senator Sylvia Allen thinks the earth is 6000 years old
Anyone think we can get to S&P 820 between now and Dec?
Code theft could cost Goldman millions, U.S. says
| Reuters
Code theft could cost Goldman millions, U.S. says
Those are real tears... no really! /sarc off
Only way to improve that is to add a few 00s and take BAC and Chase with them
DEFLATION...wait a week, it will all be on sale
What seniority do CA BearChit holders have in court or are they unsecured ?
"Anyone think we can get to S&P 820 between now and Dec?"
Do you mean "can we get back there after the imminent trip into the 600s?"
CR:Banks Will Stop Accepting California IOUs Friday
This should affect today's peso-to-bearchit (CA IOU) exchange rate.
This
Donde esta el kermit?
"This should affect today's peso-to-bearchit (CA IOU) exchange rate. "
I'll bet those speculators who were offering to buy the bearchits didn't expect to get whipsawed this fast...
Anyone think we can get to S&P 820 between now and Dec?
i would think within the next 50 days
"Code Theft Could Cost Goldman Millions"
Timmay already has his checkbook out to cover it
I see GE is getting a work out behind the woodshed today - down 4.5%.
One of these days, somebody big is not going to have any higher grade trash to swap out for cash at the fed. Then we'll be right back to panic city.
close below 880 means its on
"Donde esta el kermit? "
Out back in the alley in a pool of green blood.
Man, things are sure oscillating today. Nothing moving in a straight line, charts look like saw teeth.
The IOUs are basically worthless.
Why do any of you posters believe the state of California is actually going to make good on them?
The Constitution?
Federal Law?
Court Rulings?
TPTB respect none of these things.
Instead of fewer currencies (amero), we get more currencies (bearchit).
piosec,
thanks. I was there already. went here California State Controller's Office : Summary Analyses of Statements of General Fund Cash Receipts to get the monthly breakdown in the general fund. The disbursements are significant to localities.
--bh
Keep on believing that the US Federal Government is too big to fail.
I double dog dare you.
Gold hanging in pretty good today, given the selloff in stocks and commodities.
Shortly, gold and silver will blast off. You can't predict the day, and it could be bouncy. but you gotta be in it to win it.
Stop with the double dog dare! Thats sacred and has to be done or else
Note to HomeGnome, they have already failed...if it were not for the power of the printing press we would already be eating out of trash cans.
What makes us any different than another country..I know I know big missiles that go in the sky and go boom...big deal....we are broke...320% over and above our GDP....that right there is a double dog dare.
Lloyd: You're it.
Harry: You're it.
Lloyd: You're it, quitsies!
Harry: Anti-quitsies, you're it, quitsies, no anti-quitsies, no startsies!
Lloyd: You can't do that!
Harry: Can too!
Lloyd: Cannot, stamp it!
Harry: Can too, double stamp it, no erasies!
Lloyd: Cannot, triple stamp, no erasies, Touch blue make it true.
Harry: No, you can't do that... you can't triple stamp a double stamp, you can't triple stamp a double stamp! Lloyd!
Lloyd: [hands over ears] LA LA LA LA LA LA!
Harry: LLOYD! LLOYD! LLOYD!
The IOUs are basically worthless.HG
We've lived through this before. The state is not BK, it's a political problem--DEM-REPUB clusterfuck. The recession makes things a bit worse, but the recession is not the cause of the political problem and the recession does not necessarily doom the state.
Those worried about collapse--it might take a while.
Countries are sticky on the way down so I guess states are too
rich;
"Gold hanging in pretty good today, given the selloff in stocks and commodities."
Silber, OTOH, has been all over the place. SVM is down 5.5%, while SLW is up a little, SSRI down a little.
It's like JPM's guys woke up this morning and decided that industrial demand is going away.
Hey everyone. Back from vacation. Scanning the headlines, it looks like things are stable and 2H recovery is under way.
Did I miss anything?
"Back from vacation. "
Good hopium available where you vacationed?
UCgal,
It may depend on where the lab is and who the funder is. It's like any questions you'd ask regarding state anything, it all depends because each dept is a different flavor of pain in the @ss.
I've had state fund that have been frozen since the bond block. Some have been released, others not so much. Then there is the question of whether he is cost sharing time or is he soft money funded, doe he have other grants that don't have restrictions, does he have a donor research account in good standing, and whether... you get the idea. It's a freaking policy ocean out there. I should make a freaking flow chart to show all the possible business rules and exceptions. Now if I could just manage to find a private firm who wants to pay for this kind of knowledge /sigh
Now if the project is fed or private sponsored, everything looks pretty good here.
Did I miss anything?
I don't think so.
you missed 'bearchit'
Oh, Michigan was sold to Canada. No one noticed tho...
I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.
I have been thinking about J. Wellington Wimpy for the last few years, at each new kick-the-can policy announcement.
I drove down the Broadway , SMC. There were 6 new half empty apartment buildings / condos. Talking about 'em shadow inventory. I think i'll go into 60/40 (%) deflation camp in the next 3 years.
Would be interesting to add DJ REIT index performance to see how REIT stocks did and where REIT prices peaked and troughed with the vacancy rate. Even more interesting if the data went back further. Unfortunately, with only two real points (two recessions), there isn't much of a conclusion you can draw from the chart. Scary picture, though, to be sure.
Deflationary Jane (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 2:44 pm
Code theft could cost Goldman millions, U.S. says
Millions is barely an accounting error. So the question is whether this story is much larger in implications, or chaff we're being pointed toward to arrest our attention from and obscure something worse that's going on. Cali implosion? MJ sure appeared at a convenient time, too...
Did I miss anything?
Nah, things are so quiet that the media had to fall back and cover some dude's funeral.
@sm_landlord,
Strong hopium in Detroit! Family in the Monroe area, mother-in-law works for a steel galvanizing plant, plant is running at 50% hoping for Chrysler to ramp back up. Strong hopium indeed. Weather was nice.
serious question: how long until it is acknowledged that the "china has decoupled" thesis is ridiculous?
they are rioting over there...what more is it going to take?
Coinz,
You know the phrase Banta Poodoo? That's CA. Deep Banta Poodoo.
--bh
Haha, banta poodoo. Yeah, saw the major banks are saying "no thanks" after Friday. I won't get any IOUs this year.
"So the question is whether this story is much larger in implications, or chaff we're being pointed toward... "
It means that Glodman may now be trading against their own software. Could be real expensive.
@Comrade Coinz
You didn't try to buy a Detroit house for $100?
in china, it's all about aluminum - check this out!
Macro Man: Remarkable!
Anyone know how much the fed purchased at today's auction?
Well great piggly wiggly...PIGGED again!
Somebody needs to do a glossary entry for "bearchit".
Good luck, Elmer.
You're going to need it.
Does a bear chit in the woods?
Yes, but if no one is there (and the bear is as deaf as CA legislators) it doesnt make any sound.
creditcriminalslovetarp (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 -
12:04 pm editreply
Stock market hope song playing right now..
YouTube - Journey - Don't Stop Believin'
spx broke thru 50 and 200dma's-hence the song...
Glossary term
Don't stop believing-
Song by Journey recently covered by the feds, treasury, banks, reits, govt, news etc to induce hypnotic rally, best experienced with green shoots