1.) Just curious, who's still braving the market now that Goldman is the house (54% of trades?)
2.) There are a lot of people on this board who keeps repeating that line "they have to take the dollar...what are they gonna replace it with?" with BRIC closer and closer to pushing a new reserve currency. Are they bots sent by the government?
The ad I'm seeing below this post is for "Shanghai Leader Catalyst Co, Ltd., a subsidiary of SINOPEC" and states "We offer quality Polyethylene Catalysts".
"He and others say hotels have committed economic suicide by slashing rates to levels not seen even in the aftermath of 9/11, "
This has got to be regional. I'm looking at a weekend in Dallas in August, and hotel rates there don't appear to have dropped much at all over the past 12 months. I know that my little anecdote isn't really data, but I wonder if this is following the same regional rules that RRE has been following.
I was in Waikiki a week ago - it seems like there were only half the traffic (as compared to a year ago). You can walk around on the Kalakaua ave with relative ease - no bumping around with the crowd. Even the street performers looked sad. I did notice alot more hookers standing pat near the main road.
Auction Ten is a new and exciting auction designed just for you. We take items on consignment from you and offer them for sale at our auctions. Auction Ten is a division of Premium Access Inc, a license real estate brokerage company and licensed auctioneer. This is a great opportunity to buy hundreds of items from antiques to collectibles and jewelry to art.
Auction of state of california IOUs to be auctionted off July 11 AND 25
Valley View Event Center in Rocklin, 2201 Plaza Drive, Rocklin (off Hwy 65 exit Stanford Ranch Road, 4 stoplights,turn left, count seven palm trees and you'll be there)
From previous thread:
" Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:37 pm
@Cinco-X
"It is inevitable, but it isn't imminent. There's nothing to replace it with"
? Did you read the headline? BRIC is pushing to create a new reserve currency.
There are a lot of people on this board who keeps repeating that line "they have to take the dollar...what are they gonna replace it with?" Are they bots sent by the government?"
Yes; there's constantly chatter about a new reserve currency. However, I for one don't believe that you can just create a currency out of the blue. Since fiat money is not backed by gold, it is effectively back by the assets, goods and services of an economy. In other words, it's worth what you can buy with it. For another currency to become the "reserve" currency, it needs to be from an economy that is big enough and stable enough to be considered a reliable place to park your money. The only economy besides ours that fits that bill is Europe, but I personally think there are issues with the Euro. The Southern countries have a history of inflating their currencies to stimulate growth, whereas the German Central Bank has a history of tight money. As this R/Depression drags on, Spain, Italy, et al may very well decide to abandon the Euro, since the European Union's monetary policy is at odds with their need for growth. Once countries start to abandon the Euro, the economy that it represents will shrink to the point that it will no longer be suitable as a reserve currency as described above. You can't successfully pull a reserve currency out of your @$$.
Scrooge,
Count me among those who view the USD as getting replaced by SDRs as Reserve Currency.
It is inevitable.
whether it is 'offically' policy or not, it is beginning to happen.
All the 'little' currencies are lining up to pile on the big bully, USD.
I find it amazing in a recession like this... seeing new hotels being build in a town with just over 10% unemployment and numerous hotels already (!!!!)
How exactly do they plan on making money ? Government hotel bail out ??
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — In stark contrast to states like California, Georgia, Kansas, Maryland and Missouri, who have delayed sending out income tax refunds or have been forced to issue IOUs to taxpayers, Indiana issued refunds right on schedule this year. The Indiana Department of Revenue reports it has processed more than 3 million individual income tax returns this year to date. As a result, more than 2 million refunds were issued from January to June 30, which is the normal time frame by which the State of Indiana issues the majority of refunds each tax season.
" shill (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:36 pm
Totally unrelated question...... Can CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera find any tighter tops? (not that I'm complaining:).
Wonder Twins powers Activate!
Form of CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera's top!"
I really enjoyed watching the 6 new hotels being built at my intersection the past 3 years. The workers built Hotel #1, then started building Hotel #2 while staying in Hotel #1, then started building Hotel #3 while staying in Hotel #2, then .... well, you get the picture. Our city is not large enough to support 8 hotels (6 new, 2 existing).
Indiana is in very good shape, certainly compared to her neighbors. Passed a budget on time, and with very little fuss.
Of course, she is sitting between Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky, so Indy is like a cute little kid with tousled hair and a little bit of jelly on her cheeks looking over the fence at a deserted battery factory and a rusting auto junkyard. Or something like that.
There was a golf course building boom from around 1995 to 2005 in the state where I live. I wonder what percentage of golf courses go away before this all over?
Agreed with some parts of your post. Although I believe BRIC (Brazil, Russia, Indian, China) is strong enough as an alliance to force a new reserve currency. Remember that these countries have most of the manufacturing power, most of the population (30% of the world population), a stockpile of commodities, a reserve of energy (remember the Russian gas crisis last winter?), etc. - whereas Euro and Dollar suffers from lack of manufacturing industry and lack of oil/energy reserves (and of course, massive debt). And since BRIC sells things that we need, of course they can dictate which currency to use to pay them.
___________________ 28-Day Bill
CUSIP Number ___________________________ 912795N56
High Rate ________________________________ 0.160%
Allotted at High ___________________________ 26.08%
Price ___________________________________ 99.987556
Investment Rate ___________________________ 0.162%
Median Rate ______________________________ 0.140%
Low Rate ________________________________ 0.100%
Issue Date _______________________________ July 09, 2009
Maturity Date ____________________________ August 06, 2009
Is EHP officially MIA? He was skeptical about the 'new reserve currency' idea. As for hotels, I do believe Portland is seeing some slack, far fewer tourists this summer, so far. A lot of staycations going on, I suspect. Which means some of those honey-do projects might actually get done.
" Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:57 pm
@Cinco-X
Agreed with some parts of your post. Although I believe BRIC (Brazil, Russia, Indian, China) is strong enough as an alliance to force a new reserve currency. Remember that these countries have most of the manufacturing power, most of the population (30% of the world population), a stockpile of commodities, a reserve of energy (remember the Russian gas crisis last winter?), etc. - whereas Euro and Dollar suffers from lack of manufacturing industry and lack of oil/energy reserves (and of course, massive debt). And since BRIC sells things that we need, of course they can dictate which currency to use to pay them."
Perhaps an SDR based on their currencies would work. I wonder how OPEC would react to that?
"Perhaps an SDR based on their currencies would work. I wonder how OPEC would react to that? "
Good question. The arab countries are forming a competing basket of currency I believe. If the new SDR or the new reserve currency is supported by OPEC, that's the nail in the coffin for dollar.
" President Obama had better turn his efforts from pretending to re-start the revolving credit rackets to overseeing the comprehensive re-simplifying of American life. I think he has a few weeks to turn his rhetoric around before the political mischief begins for real, and the aggrieved classes start shooting things up and burning things down. These classes really do need something to hope for, and something to work at, and something to occupy their attention besides their grief over the massive losses in their lives. But none of that energy will be focused beneficially unless they hear the truth... that there really is no going back to what was before."
It's also vitally important to commence public hearings and official investigations of those who committed real crimes and malfeasances. Bernie Madoff has been salted away for two and a half lifetimes, but Henry Paulson is still at large after overseeing the creation of the biggest heap of fraudulent securities the world has ever known -- and then betting against them in the swaps market, in effect shorting his own swindle -- not to mention his misdeeds at the US Department of the Treasury. Why are those other Wall Street smoothies still enjoying their Hamptons villas while the foreclosed set up tents in the Sacramento Delta? Why are the government officials who failed so miserably at regulation still enjoying their salaries, perqs, and pensions while those not employed by a bloated government struggle to stay alive another week. And how many more weeks will go by before Michael Jackson is buried in the ground?
The arab countries are forming a competing basket of currency I believe. If the new SDR or the new reserve currency is supported by OPEC, that's the nail in the coffin for dollar.
How much of OPEC currency reserves are dollar-denominated?
If anyone else would like to explain to Mr. Warnick the basic principals of supply, demand, and price....
Richard A. Warnick, Principal
Sandra Luke, Principal
2398 East Camelback Road, Suite 1150
Phoenix, AZ 85016-9018
tel: (602) 955-9393
fax: (602) 955-9494
" President Obama had better turn his efforts from pretending to re-start the revolving credit rackets to overseeing the comprehensive re-simplifying of American life. I think he has a few weeks to turn his rhetoric around before the political mischief begins for real, and the aggrieved classes start shooting things up and burning things down. These classes really do need something to hope for, and something to work at, and something to occupy their attention besides their grief over the massive losses in their lives. But none of that energy will be focused beneficially unless they hear the truth... that there really is no going back to what was before.""
Thank you. I think the corporate and political establishment thinks that the future will be like the past, with a few extra dog and pony shows to quiet the masses. They don't understand that when people start seriously hurting, participation in business as usual drops away. And then one day there's a knock on the door and it's Hugo Chavez (metaphorically), if you don't watch out and start beneficial reform now.
Tried to get a room on the ocean at VA Beach this weekend and there were were no bargains. Nothing below $150 per night.
These greedy bastards would rather die than lower their rates.
hookers standing pat in Hawaii: hmmm, maybe they could do something to put a fluff on business
Caruso Cabrera's tight top: uh, it's like the Fast Money show is analyzing the porn industry, she's just a lead in of sorts, they gotta do something to fluff up viewership
On topic, as I reported a few days ago there were plenty of hotel/motel vacancies in Santa Cruz on the July 4 weekend -- not near the beach, but starting a few blocks away. And we've only added a couple of hundred rooms in the last few years.
The "majors," newer hotels tied to national chains, did better than the independents. National advertised discounts, bonus bucks? Who knows?
I personally don't think it'll happen -- exactly. Both sides will cave, Arnold a little more so. (Repub legislators seem out of the loop.) He's all about image, and he won't want the state to collapse on his watch.
Grant you the compromise they come up with will probably be fundamentally unsound, and may be challenged immediately in court. But it will serve its most urgent purpose, which is to at least allow this puppy to limp along for a couple more months.
Seems they should rope off a big area and charge a dollar for everyone who wants to go in.
I woulda had the thing at the rosebowl or collosium and charged $40 a head. then charge TV networks $1-2M each to have cameras. You'd be able to pay for everything at that point.
perhaps some day retail businesses will learn that in the current economic climate cutting prices and offering discounts is collective suicide. I don't believe that a discount increases consumption merely transfers it from one period to another (best case) or provides a discount for something that would have been purchased at normal prices anyway. Every month I get a $5/$10 off coupon from Home Depot - I wait for it to arrive and then purchase the stuff I would have purchased anyway.
Term and Type of Security _________________________ 3-Year Note
CUSIP Number _________________________________ 912828LB4
Series ________________________________________ AA-2012
Interest Rate ___________________________________ 1.5%
High Yield _____________________________________ 1.519%
Allotted at High _________________________________ 76.31%
Price _________________________________________ 99.944485
Accrued Interest per $1,000 _______________________ None
Median Yield ___________________________________ 1.430%
Low Yield _____________________________________ 1.370%
Issue Date ____________________________________ July 15, 2009
Maturity Date __________________________________ July 15, 2012
Original Issue Date _____________________________ July 15, 2009
Dated Date ____________________________________ July 15, 2009
No reason why they can't push it out for international use. China has started doing that with renminbi - SMcD
And that's going well. Somehow, I'm not getting the urge to buy renminbis or OPEC paper. I'm not envisioning a global stampede here, into the arms of the Arabs or the Red Chinese. I can see a currency basket taking shape over the years, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese were wanting to be part of that, if they can. For myself, I wish the Aussie dollar would come back down a bit!
many are concerned it will take years to get back to "normal," or at least the new normal.
How many years will it take to get me back to normal? You know, when I was twenty.
From what I see, demand for treasuries is still very high. Absent the fed's support of wall street crap assets, demand for treasuries would be off the charts.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:24 pm
This event is a symptom of a basic dysfunction in society. If parts of it begin to fragment, they will be brought together again, maybe in ways that most of us won't care for.
You won't see the emergence of a Cao Cao type figure immediately. You will need several decades of brutal destruction of the infrastructure before you can have a ruthless despotic ruler rise in these territories. Someone trying to crown himself emperor would just be the "Yellow Turbans" of this era. Even if you have the undisputed title, you have the challenge of raising cash to retake more territory with problems raising money.
Large states end up in the kind of condition the US is in because of multigenerational patterns of dysfunction. Someone screaming and waving a pistol behind a podium is just another destructive force in the array of bad actors, past a certain point. The last guy who will ever have had a real go at it was Bush in late 03 / early 04 -- the Republican born-again were in battle array and naive heroism commanded the hearts of the security forces. Nobody will ever get that shot again and any kind of attempt to bypass the electoral process will result in a collapse into regional warfare or you just getting plain old arrested.
Also, the only way anybody is going to get to be dictator any time soon is to be President and take it for a ride. Generals proclaiming themselves in charge? Not a chance. Who even knows who most of those generals are? J. Random Messiah with "New Milennium" written on all his flags? Definitely not that kind of country. So they will have to be chained to the presidnency for 4-6 years first, which will not make anybody look good.
Nobody will ever get the same commonsense-free period Bush had, and it is really hard to legitimate yourself and carnifex rex when the character document of your society describes rules for your regular replacement. Not that it can't happen, but we'll have to have a good long while of regional states shooting at one-another and the general plant of the country getting way run down before that guy can have much of a chance, and at that point, he'll just be another contender, because the bureaucratic apparatus he seizes will be weak enough for him to gain control of it because it's so decayed. Not that being formal top dog is worthless, but we live in a federalized system and the regional power centers might seem quaint right now, but they will get very active and very formidable once they are compelled to take over the rule of large sections of territory. That will happen before anyone can make himself or herself caesar.
Hotels (until the latest round of free money policies) were always projects of hubris, usually took 4 BKs before the last round of owners could make them cashflow properly.
When you see Mr. & Mrs. Patel running the Montelucia in Paradise Valley you'll know they're no longer in the red.
As for SDR's being the new reserve currency, fat chance. It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen.
Absolutely insane here we have a state that is in a financial ruin and a person that ran up close to a $billion dollars in debt before his death and now a 4 million dollar funeral...are you F'en kidding me!....
Cremation would have been cheaper....and this escapade...I'll say no more, to keep the PC crowd at bay.
You won't see the emergence of a Cao Cao type figure immediately. You will need several decades of brutal destruction of the infrastructure before you can have a ruthless despotic ruler rise in these territories. Someone trying to crown himself emperor would just be the "Yellow Turbans" of this era. Even if you have the undisputed title, you have the challenge of raising cash to retake more territory with problems raising money.
+1 Romance of the Three Kingdoms
Since the Cao (T'sao?) were displaced by the short-lived Jin dynasty, I'm not liking the comparison. It was quite a while after the fall of the Later Han before there was another era of lasting stability and growth--definitely longer than the 1 lifespan I have to spend in it.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:36 pm
As for SDR's being the new reserve currency, fat chance. It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen.
Remember, it doesn't need to WORK, it just needs to do what they want it to. Big difference between those two things. You aren't going to see a new hegemonic currency any time soon because currency power springs from political power. But -- people can push the US into eclipse by having a plan they know won't work or by having a plan that they think will work but that will really blow up. The international community does stupid things all the time. Don't just worry about plans that make sense.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:36 pm
As for SDR's being the new reserve currency, fat chance. It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen.
Remember, it doesn't need to WORK, it just needs to do what they want it to. Big difference between those two things. You aren't going to see a new hegemonic currency any time soon because currency power springs from political power. But -- people can push the US into eclipse by having a plan they know won't work or by having a plan that they think will work but that will really blow up. The international community does stupid things all the time. Don't just worry about plans that make sense.
"As for SDR's being the new reserve currency, fat chance. It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen. "
Our GDP remained large mainly from boost in housing/construction/financial sectors in the last 10 years. Other than that, our manufacturing sector is gone. (Same can be said for most of Europe) And since we need products from China, services from India, Oil from OPEC, I'm sure their new reserve currency will carry alot of weight, once they got rid of enough dollar holdings, and spring this new currency on the world.
By the way, whats with all these people filling a stadium in the early afternoon...DON'T THESE PEOPLE WORK?...oh wait that's right 79 weeks of unemployment checks in Kali.
BR, very good analysis. My dad and I had a recent conversation about this very topic. As much as all the study papers are warning of a military elite power grab coming, what are the chances? We don't have a MacArthur or a Patton today. No disrespect to current active duty generals, but no one has the desire or the charisma to grab the public's attention. And why would they, if they keep their nose clean and stay under the radar, great jobs are for the taking once out on the free market. Funny thing about the disintegration of the US, is I had a dream when I was around 7 or eight, can't remember exactly it was right after we moved to Germany, where the Republic of Texas ruled from the gulf north to the border of Canada. Union of Southern States reassembled the South, two distinct North East countries, Pennsylvania and Ohio, New York and the coastal states. The west was a desert. People lived there but no organized states. Sounded far-fetched back then, not so much anymore.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:42 pm
Since the Cao (T'sao?) were displaced by the short-lived Jin dynasty, I'm not liking the comparison. It was quite a while after the fall of the Later Han before there was another era of lasting stability and growth--definitely longer than the 1 lifespan I have to spend in it.
A friend of the family traveling in China got a very nice Zhuge Liang for my altar.
And yes, it is likely we will go through 2-3 transitional dynasties before we establish a new, stable dynasty, just like it's also likely the Mao will perish in civil unrest. The Chinese are so paranoid about social disorder because they know what happens to transitional dynasties at about this point in the Mao's lifespan.
We need a Funeral Channel, all funerals all the time. We could do funeral news, have abest of show, cremation nation, the advertising and audience would be fabulous!
Remember, it doesn't need to WORK, it just needs to do what they want it to.
What does China want it to do, keep them at full employment?
What does Russia want it to do, work as a fertility drug?
What does Brazil want it to do, allow it to be self sufficient thru commodities but yet allow them to power export?
What does India want it to do, buy infrastructure equipment on the cheap so they can bring the other 90% of their country into the 19th century?
What do OPEC nations want it to do, behave as a store of wealth?
As long as they their own interests don't align(which they don't), then there's ZERO chance. They're not gonna screw themselves just to screw us(especially since China gets boned if they bone us), except maybe the Russians are bitter enough to try it.
Wrong. Their interests do align; they want to keep their wealth in a currency that isn't being intentionally devalued by a single entity (Federal Reserve)
Someone is fishing for deals an putting in low-ball bids. They are not being accepted at the rate they are submitted at. They FED then steps in and soaks up enough to make it appear that it's somewhat healthy.
tendered accepted
Primary Dealer __________ $61,366,000,000 ________ $13,444,941,000
Direct Bidder _____________ $6,764,665,000 _________ $2,604,370,000
Indirect Bidder ___________ $23,368,800,000 ________ $18,878,110,000
Total Competitive _________ $91,499,465,000 ________ $34,927,421,000
Since they changed the classification of what an indirect bidder is this is merely shifting from the primary dealer "bucket" to the indirect bidder bucket. In essence what this is now showing is a bucket that used to only ever hold, say 2lbs, is now shown to hold 5lbs. They then can point to it and say "see the FCB's are buying".
Simple math tells you that there is not much appetite based on tender vs. accepted....the only part that looks ok is the indirect bidder part. Taking into account the rule change of classification it doesn't look like anybody other then the Fed is doing much.
We need a Funeral Channel, all funerals all the time. We could do funeral news, have abest of show, cremation nation, the advertising and audience would be fabulous!
"Funerals.com. We put the Fun into Funerals." -- tagline.
"You won't see the emergence of a Cao Cao type figure immediately."
It's the future. The most you get is glimpses. I once won the trifecta at a dog track. I could 'see', in a manner of speaking, which dogs would win, but I couldn't do it again. Professor Hawking says there's a universal censor built into the universe that prevents things like that from happening. Personally, I think that precognition happens, but 'seeing' doesn't mean effective seeing. You can't change what you can see. But in that one case I held the money in my hand in exchange for a ticket.
As for the present crisis, you don't have to be a seer to feel that this may not end well. California seems shaky, and I'm not speaking of earth tremors.
our manufacturing sector is gone. (Same can be said for most of Europe)
You're a bigger fool than I had thought, which is saying something. I must've missed that bit when Germany, France & Italy decided to stop making things and went of a FIRE kick.
Dolt.
Please, "go galt" already and stop hovering around internet cafes imparting such "insight".
"We need a Funeral Channel, all funerals all the time. We could do funeral news, have abest of show, cremation nation, the advertising and audience would be fabulous!"
pavel, that is an interesting quote from Hawking, haven't seen it before. I agree with the part about not being able to change what you can see. We are all Casandra. I have had glimpses of things that only made sense after the fact. Sort of a sub-conscious preparation for an event that my conscious self could only deal with after the fact. I am convinced that time doesn't exist. It is just a stop-gap measure to maintain human sanity.
..and don't forget, you could have 'My Redneck Funerals' featuring a lack of taste and sobriety as well as "Big Bling Funerals" featuring 500K or more extravaganzas, including whole viking replica boats being set on fire by expert archarists...
although not directly on topic did anybody catch our CIC latest statement
"potentially counterproductive if we're spending more money than we're having to borrow"
As former Obama supporter and donor do I feel like ******* ass . Does he not understand that it is precisely because people confused borrowing with income that we are in this mess. It isn't counter productive when you spend more than you can BORROW (that's called bankruptcy) its counter productive when you spend more than you earn.
Will the Democrats, Republicans or any other party please give us an alternative in 2012?
" Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:36 pm
It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen."
Exactly; in the reserve currency game, size matters...
Personally, I think that precognition happens, but 'seeing' doesn't mean effective seeing.
It doesn't take a wise ear to hear the sound of thunder. These things have a shape that is given to them by the processes taking place. If the US breaks down, it will be a long horrible grind with the central state throwing its weight around for the entire duration of the process. There will be regional states not because people are regionally minded, but because there can't be a vigorous central state because there is one and it can't make effective policy happen.
A friend of the family traveling in China got a very nice Zhuge Liang for my altar.
It could be a fun exercise to debate what our country's Kongming will be like and how (s)he will act in a way to be immortalized in the Annals of History. We already had our Cincinnatus in George Washington. I'm not sure if we have had our equivalent of Zhang Liang (Liu Bang's adviser) either.
As for the Chinese, I'm unsure how the Mandate of Heaven will disappear from the "Mao" Dynasty. I would imagine rising unemployment and less prosperity will do it in, but they haven't really gotten used to a life of materialism so I'm unsure how they will respond when it disappears. Also, I'm unsure if the Han Chinese will remain as cohesive as they are portrayed or if regionalism will break out among their ranks too. Definitely above my hobbyist studies of Chinese history.
"pavel, that is an interesting quote from Hawking, haven't seen it before. I agree with the part about not being able to change what you can see. We are all Casandra. I have had glimpses of things that only made sense after the fact. Sort of a sub-conscious preparation for an event that my conscious self could only deal with after the fact. I am convinced that time doesn't exist. It is just a stop-gap measure to maintain human sanity."
I think you're probably right, Vonbek777. Professor Hawking was referring, I think, to the superluminal transfer of information, which is forbidden by Relativity.
I had met my future wife at a volunteer organization, but had never asked her for a date. There was a party, but the address on the notice was wrong. This was near M Street in DC, where there are many large office buildings. I felt very strongly that I wanted to find the party, and somehow, I knew which building it was in. When I walked into it a man in the lobby told me where the party was, and there I found her.
" Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:51 pm
As long as they their own interests don't align(which they don't), then there's ZERO chance. They're not gonna screw themselves just to screw us(especially since China gets boned if they bone us), except maybe the Russians are bitter enough to try it."
Has anyone seen a progress report on the streamlined modification plan that the FDIC put in place at IndyMac? We should be able to see some results at this point.
[As former Obama supporter and donor do I feel like ******* ass . Does he not understand that it is precisely because people confused borrowing with income that we are in this mess]
You voted for Obama because of his strong commitment to fiscal discipline ? OMG!!!
Wrong. Their interests do align; they want to keep their wealth in a currency that isn't being intentionally devalued by a single entity (Federal Reserve)
It would probably suffer the same fate as the Euro.
Not stimulated enough?
I'll throw in a second stimulus set absolutely free*
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. leaders should be open to the possibility of a second stimulus package to further boost the economy, which is still hemorrhaging jobs, House of Representatives Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said on Tuesday.
*Must pay shipping and handling fee of 13.9 Trillion per stimulus.
Official Russian Military Strategic doctrine seeks to create and maintain a multi-polar world, specifically naming the US as a challenge and threat, also noting that economic warfare must be regarded as a viable tool.
It's not lip-service. They are diminished, handicapped, and challenged internally, but it won't be bitterness if they calculate BRIC is in their interests.
Pavel,
Low point at Baylor for me, was I could not meet a girl I was willing to date. I actually sunk into a depression because I realized college was a joke, my life after college was going to be high school all over again if I took the corporate road, and I could not meet anyone I could even begin to have a meaningful relationship with. Even though philosophically I had moved to a deist-watchmaker view of God, I stayed up for 72 hours praying and fasting trying to come to terms with my existence. No voices, no answer, but after those three days I had my first ideas about time being linked to the id, ego, and superego. Then I made a decision to leave Baylor. Went out to Ft. Irwin California for the summer, Federal summer jobs program, met my wife on the first day. I knew the moment I met her, she was the one. Can't explain how. Didn't have a logical reason, I just 'knew'. But knowing isn't the same thing as making it happen, let me tell you.
Anyway, I am convinced that the id is governed by the past. We tame our inner beast with thoughts of the past. The ego deals with the present and is a passageway between the id and the superego. Superego deals with the future. I made this easier to understand by assigning virtures. Discipline to the past and id. Dedication to the future and superego, and Determination to the present and ego. I know most people reject the three piece division of the human psyche now, but it still works for me.
... United Airline ran an 86% load factor in May. When the economy does start to improve (it will, eventually) then thy will be in a position to set prices quite high for a while.
... On-line hotel reservation brokers buy rooms well in advance, and based on current conditions probably overpaid. I'd suggest comparing their rates with the hotel itself. (If I had done that in May I would have saved 20 Euro/night in Budapest)
picosec (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 11:26 am
... United Airline ran an 86% load factor in May. When the economy does start to improve (it will, eventually) then thy will be in a position to set prices quite high for a while.
That's because of massive idled capacity. Capacity that can come back on line in a matter of weeks.
It's OK folks.
The economy is fine, it's just the weather that's the problem.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Unseasonable weather and consumers without the stimulus boost they received last year were expected to have dampened U.S. retail sales in June, analysts said.
The month was "particularly challenging" for stores selling summer products as the first three weeks were cooler and wetter than usual, according to weather tracking firm Planalytics.
"I must've missed that bit when Germany, France & Italy decided to stop making things and went of a FIRE kick."
Noticed I said 'most' of europe. Germany and France can't support the lack of economic prowess of their partners in EU, i.e Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal. Wait until England tries to sneak into the EU; that'll be hilariously tragic.
"Please, "go galt" already and stop hovering around internet cafes imparting such "insight". "
I have gone galt already, and have declared it many times. Are you the sucker that's paying 50-60% taxes for the many city services the internet cafe gets? Not including the inflation/robbing of your savings?
"Dolt"
Now now, no need to call me name and show your lack of self control dealing with anonymous users on the internet.
Hostels are doing fine though. And tent cities are booming.
CR,
Have you read some the craiglist and ebay ads about sites to arbitrage California IOUs? They are hilarious..
Read it and weep, Nemo. You just got pwned.
1.) Just curious, who's still braving the market now that Goldman is the house (54% of trades?)
2.) There are a lot of people on this board who keeps repeating that line "they have to take the dollar...what are they gonna replace it with?" with BRIC closer and closer to pushing a new reserve currency. Are they bots sent by the government?
will we see 50...
Hey, hey there CR. Go easy on the blue bars buddy. You gonna need a lot more so you better have stockpiled a lot in the bankerdome.
I've been waiting for the hotel thread. Hawaii is at 62% for May. The lowest since records were started.
20 months--or 16.6% of your lost decade is already behind you.
--bh
The ad I'm seeing below this post is for "Shanghai Leader Catalyst Co, Ltd., a subsidiary of SINOPEC" and states "We offer quality Polyethylene Catalysts".
Total pwnage, Angry Saver, total pwnage
i'll take the over...
"He and others say hotels have committed economic suicide by slashing rates to levels not seen even in the aftermath of 9/11, "
This has got to be regional. I'm looking at a weekend in Dallas in August, and hotel rates there don't appear to have dropped much at all over the past 12 months. I know that my little anecdote isn't really data, but I wonder if this is following the same regional rules that RRE has been following.
I was in Waikiki a week ago - it seems like there were only half the traffic (as compared to a year ago). You can walk around on the Kalakaua ave with relative ease - no bumping around with the crowd. Even the street performers looked sad. I did notice alot more hookers standing pat near the main road.
Some funny things from craiglist
Auction Ten
Auction Ten is a new and exciting auction designed just for you. We take items on consignment from you and offer them for sale at our auctions. Auction Ten is a division of Premium Access Inc, a license real estate brokerage company and licensed auctioneer. This is a great opportunity to buy hundreds of items from antiques to collectibles and jewelry to art.
Auction of state of california IOUs to be auctionted off July 11 AND 25
Valley View Event Center in Rocklin, 2201 Plaza Drive, Rocklin (off Hwy 65 exit Stanford Ranch Road, 4 stoplights,turn left, count seven palm trees and you'll be there)
Loan Payment Calculator|Free IOU Forms|Promissory Note Payment |
Read the ads.. good entertainment!
RATM,
I feel like Navin R. Johnson (from the movie " The Jerk") when the new phone book arrives.
Yes, I'm somebody
asterisk, what is the going rate on Priceline (404 Error - Yuku Yuku and have you called the hotels directly?
From previous thread:
" Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:37 pm
@Cinco-X
"It is inevitable, but it isn't imminent. There's nothing to replace it with"
? Did you read the headline? BRIC is pushing to create a new reserve currency.
There are a lot of people on this board who keeps repeating that line "they have to take the dollar...what are they gonna replace it with?" Are they bots sent by the government?"
Yes; there's constantly chatter about a new reserve currency. However, I for one don't believe that you can just create a currency out of the blue. Since fiat money is not backed by gold, it is effectively back by the assets, goods and services of an economy. In other words, it's worth what you can buy with it. For another currency to become the "reserve" currency, it needs to be from an economy that is big enough and stable enough to be considered a reliable place to park your money. The only economy besides ours that fits that bill is Europe, but I personally think there are issues with the Euro. The Southern countries have a history of inflating their currencies to stimulate growth, whereas the German Central Bank has a history of tight money. As this R/Depression drags on, Spain, Italy, et al may very well decide to abandon the Euro, since the European Union's monetary policy is at odds with their need for growth. Once countries start to abandon the Euro, the economy that it represents will shrink to the point that it will no longer be suitable as a reserve currency as described above. You can't successfully pull a reserve currency out of your @$$.
Scrooge,
Count me among those who view the USD as getting replaced by SDRs as Reserve Currency.
It is inevitable.
whether it is 'offically' policy or not, it is beginning to happen.
All the 'little' currencies are lining up to pile on the big bully, USD.
I find it amazing in a recession like this... seeing new hotels being build in a town with just over 10% unemployment and numerous hotels already (!!!!)
How exactly do they plan on making money ? Government hotel bail out ??
Indiana not among states delaying or issuing IOUs on tax refunds
Indiana not among states delaying or issuing IOUs on tax refunds | Lafayette Online
Posted July 7, 2009
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — In stark contrast to states like California, Georgia, Kansas, Maryland and Missouri, who have delayed sending out income tax refunds or have been forced to issue IOUs to taxpayers, Indiana issued refunds right on schedule this year. The Indiana Department of Revenue reports it has processed more than 3 million individual income tax returns this year to date. As a result, more than 2 million refunds were issued from January to June 30, which is the normal time frame by which the State of Indiana issues the majority of refunds each tax season.
Have any other states besides CA issued chits yet?
lol, you're name in print! Things are going to start happening to you now.
" shill (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:36 pm
Totally unrelated question...... Can CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera find any tighter tops? (not that I'm complaining:).
Wonder Twins powers Activate!
Form of CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera's top!"
http://project000.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/07/07/michelle_carusocabrera_bikini.jpg
I really enjoyed watching the 6 new hotels being built at my intersection the past 3 years. The workers built Hotel #1, then started building Hotel #2 while staying in Hotel #1, then started building Hotel #3 while staying in Hotel #2, then .... well, you get the picture. Our city is not large enough to support 8 hotels (6 new, 2 existing).
Totally unrelated question...... Can CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera find any tighter tops? (not that I'm complaining:).
keep in mind she used to be a man
Indiana is in very good shape, certainly compared to her neighbors. Passed a budget on time, and with very little fuss.
Of course, she is sitting between Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky, so Indy is like a cute little kid with tousled hair and a little bit of jelly on her cheeks looking over the fence at a deserted battery factory and a rusting auto junkyard. Or something like that.
There was a golf course building boom from around 1995 to 2005 in the state where I live. I wonder what percentage of golf courses go away before this all over?
" Take a name asswipe (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:54 pm
Totally unrelated question...... Can CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera find any tighter tops? (not that I'm complaining:).
keep in mind she used to be a man"
Based on what; her thumbs?
@Cinco-X
Agreed with some parts of your post. Although I believe BRIC (Brazil, Russia, Indian, China) is strong enough as an alliance to force a new reserve currency. Remember that these countries have most of the manufacturing power, most of the population (30% of the world population), a stockpile of commodities, a reserve of energy (remember the Russian gas crisis last winter?), etc. - whereas Euro and Dollar suffers from lack of manufacturing industry and lack of oil/energy reserves (and of course, massive debt). And since BRIC sells things that we need, of course they can dictate which currency to use to pay them.
cinco x steps up with a nice caruso save! gracias!
___________________ 28-Day Bill
CUSIP Number ___________________________ 912795N56
High Rate ________________________________ 0.160%
Allotted at High ___________________________ 26.08%
Price ___________________________________ 99.987556
Investment Rate ___________________________ 0.162%
Median Rate ______________________________ 0.140%
Low Rate ________________________________ 0.100%
Issue Date _______________________________ July 09, 2009
Maturity Date ____________________________ August 06, 2009
_________________________ Tendered _______________ Accepted
Competitive _____________ $115,259,325,000 ________ $33,615,885,000
Noncompetitive ______________ $279,648,800 __________ $279,648,800
FIMA (Noncompetitive) _________ $105,000,000 __________ $105,000,000
Subtotal _________________ $115,643,973,800 _______ $34,000,533,800
SOMA ____________________ $3,781,546,000 _________ $3,781,546,000
Total ___________________ $119,425,519,800 ________ $37,782,079,800
_________________________ Tendered _______________ Accepted
Primary Dealer ____________ $82,250,000,000 ________ $16,734,480,000
Direct Bidder ______________ $12,680,000,000 _________ $2,840,800,000
Indirect Bidder _____________ $20,329,325,000 ________ $14,040,605,000
Total Competitive ________ $115,259,325,000 ______ $33,615,885,000
Nice cinco x!!!!!!!!!!!!
Is EHP officially MIA? He was skeptical about the 'new reserve currency' idea. As for hotels, I do believe Portland is seeing some slack, far fewer tourists this summer, so far. A lot of staycations going on, I suspect. Which means some of those honey-do projects might actually get done.
" Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:57 pm
@Cinco-X
Agreed with some parts of your post. Although I believe BRIC (Brazil, Russia, Indian, China) is strong enough as an alliance to force a new reserve currency. Remember that these countries have most of the manufacturing power, most of the population (30% of the world population), a stockpile of commodities, a reserve of energy (remember the Russian gas crisis last winter?), etc. - whereas Euro and Dollar suffers from lack of manufacturing industry and lack of oil/energy reserves (and of course, massive debt). And since BRIC sells things that we need, of course they can dictate which currency to use to pay them."
Perhaps an SDR based on their currencies would work. I wonder how OPEC would react to that?
Indiana was sitting on a 1Billion in reserve for a rainy day. So they are not quite the ilk of either their neighbors, or CA.
--bh
"Perhaps an SDR based on their currencies would work. I wonder how OPEC would react to that? "
Good question. The arab countries are forming a competing basket of currency I believe. If the new SDR or the new reserve currency is supported by OPEC, that's the nail in the coffin for dollar.
Given PBR's oil reserves, would that not be tantamount to an oil-backed currency?
I think Kunstler said it best and I quote:
" President Obama had better turn his efforts from pretending to re-start the revolving credit rackets to overseeing the comprehensive re-simplifying of American life. I think he has a few weeks to turn his rhetoric around before the political mischief begins for real, and the aggrieved classes start shooting things up and burning things down. These classes really do need something to hope for, and something to work at, and something to occupy their attention besides their grief over the massive losses in their lives. But none of that energy will be focused beneficially unless they hear the truth... that there really is no going back to what was before."
It's also vitally important to commence public hearings and official investigations of those who committed real crimes and malfeasances. Bernie Madoff has been salted away for two and a half lifetimes, but Henry Paulson is still at large after overseeing the creation of the biggest heap of fraudulent securities the world has ever known -- and then betting against them in the swaps market, in effect shorting his own swindle -- not to mention his misdeeds at the US Department of the Treasury. Why are those other Wall Street smoothies still enjoying their Hamptons villas while the foreclosed set up tents in the Sacramento Delta? Why are the government officials who failed so miserably at regulation still enjoying their salaries, perqs, and pensions while those not employed by a bloated government struggle to stay alive another week. And how many more weeks will go by before Michael Jackson is buried in the ground?
The arab countries are forming a competing basket of currency I believe. If the new SDR or the new reserve currency is supported by OPEC, that's the nail in the coffin for dollar.
How much of OPEC currency reserves are dollar-denominated?
" Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:02 pm
Given PBR's oil reserves, would that not be tantamount to an oil-backed currency?"
Didn't know Pabst Blue Ribbon had oil reserves......
Ba-da-bing
Yeah, it kinda floats on the top for a while after you open one...
The latest on Khaleeji, a new single currency being sponsored by the gulf countries (scheduled for 2010)
New Gulf currency 'Khaleeji' poised to be Gold backed to remove 'Riba' :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
Didn't know Pabst Blue Ribbon had oil reserves......
It would explain a lot actually.
How about a World Currency Unit?
World Currency Unit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Khaleeji
Pretty sure the IMF explicitly forbids a gold-backed currency.
I sense a kermit appearance today.
If anyone else would like to explain to Mr. Warnick the basic principals of supply, demand, and price....
Richard A. Warnick, Principal
Sandra Luke, Principal
2398 East Camelback Road, Suite 1150
Phoenix, AZ 85016-9018
tel: (602) 955-9393
fax: (602) 955-9494
I love "consultants".
"Pretty sure the IMF explicitly forbids a gold-backed currency. "
Pretty sure the gulf states are more powerful than IMF
Pretty sure the IMF explicitly forbids a gold-backed currency.
As if the IMF can't collapse.
" I think Kunstler said it best and I quote:
" President Obama had better turn his efforts from pretending to re-start the revolving credit rackets to overseeing the comprehensive re-simplifying of American life. I think he has a few weeks to turn his rhetoric around before the political mischief begins for real, and the aggrieved classes start shooting things up and burning things down. These classes really do need something to hope for, and something to work at, and something to occupy their attention besides their grief over the massive losses in their lives. But none of that energy will be focused beneficially unless they hear the truth... that there really is no going back to what was before.""
Thank you. I think the corporate and political establishment thinks that the future will be like the past, with a few extra dog and pony shows to quiet the masses. They don't understand that when people start seriously hurting, participation in business as usual drops away. And then one day there's a knock on the door and it's Hugo Chavez (metaphorically), if you don't watch out and start beneficial reform now.
I thought the khaleeji was supposed to be for Islamic lending facilities only? I mean the ones that go by sharia /non-usury law.
Tried to get a room on the ocean at VA Beach this weekend and there were were no bargains. Nothing below $150 per night.
These greedy bastards would rather die than lower their rates.
... the ones that go by sharia /non-usury law
Give me a gold-backed currency and I promise not to lend it either.
hookers standing pat in Hawaii: hmmm, maybe they could do something to put a fluff on business
Caruso Cabrera's tight top: uh, it's like the Fast Money show is analyzing the porn industry, she's just a lead in of sorts, they gotta do something to fluff up viewership
MJ funeral: shoot me now
On topic, as I reported a few days ago there were plenty of hotel/motel vacancies in Santa Cruz on the July 4 weekend -- not near the beach, but starting a few blocks away. And we've only added a couple of hundred rooms in the last few years.
The "majors," newer hotels tied to national chains, did better than the independents. National advertised discounts, bonus bucks? Who knows?
@scone
No reason why they can't push it out for international use. China has started doing that with renminbi
So Friday, or possibly Monday is Caliboomday?
I don't hate Cali, I'm just watching in bemusement and terror.
All that MJ extra security? Who is paying for it? Seems they should rope off a big area
and charge a dollar for everyone who wants to go in.
I use Hotwire. Paid $119 in Jan. for the Intercontinental in Boston. $60 will get you into the Hilton or Crowne Plaza in downtown Minneapolis.
Is GS hopint all the greater fools will jump in? What if they don't?
"So Friday, or possibly Monday is Caliboomday?"
I personally don't think it'll happen -- exactly. Both sides will cave, Arnold a little more so. (Repub legislators seem out of the loop.) He's all about image, and he won't want the state to collapse on his watch.
Grant you the compromise they come up with will probably be fundamentally unsound, and may be challenged immediately in court. But it will serve its most urgent purpose, which is to at least allow this puppy to limp along for a couple more months.
I woulda had the thing at the rosebowl or collosium and charged $40 a head. then charge TV networks $1-2M each to have cameras. You'd be able to pay for everything at that point.
ok, fox, ok.
We are all Hamilton now.
L.A. sees $4 million tab from Jackson memorial
hahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!!
perhaps some day retail businesses will learn that in the current economic climate cutting prices and offering discounts is collective suicide. I don't believe that a discount increases consumption merely transfers it from one period to another (best case) or provides a discount for something that would have been purchased at normal prices anyway. Every month I get a $5/$10 off coupon from Home Depot - I wait for it to arrive and then purchase the stuff I would have purchased anyway.
Term and Type of Security _________________________ 3-Year Note
CUSIP Number _________________________________ 912828LB4
Series ________________________________________ AA-2012
Interest Rate ___________________________________ 1.5%
High Yield _____________________________________ 1.519%
Allotted at High _________________________________ 76.31%
Price _________________________________________ 99.944485
Accrued Interest per $1,000 _______________________ None
Median Yield ___________________________________ 1.430%
Low Yield _____________________________________ 1.370%
Issue Date ____________________________________ July 15, 2009
Maturity Date __________________________________ July 15, 2012
Original Issue Date _____________________________ July 15, 2009
Dated Date ____________________________________ July 15, 2009
_________________________ Tendered _______________ Accepted
Competitive _____________$91,499,465,000 ________ $34,927,421,000
Noncompetitive _____________ $72,642,800 ____________ $72,642,800
FIMA (Noncompetitive) ________________ $0 ___________________ $0
Subtotal ________________ $91,572,107,800 _______ $35,000,063,800
SOMA ____________________ $591,644,000 __________ $591,644,000
Total __________________ $92,163,751,800 ________ $35,591,707,800
_________________________ Tendered_______________ Accepted
Primary Dealer __________ $61,366,000,000 ________ $13,444,941,000
Direct Bidder _____________ $6,764,665,000 _________ $2,604,370,000
Indirect Bidder ___________ $23,368,800,000 ________ $18,878,110,000
Total Competitive _________ $91,499,465,000 ________ $34,927,421,000
Good luck with that.
[L.A. sees $4 million tab from Jackson memorial]
Did they declare a state of emergency to get fed matching funds?
No reason why they can't push it out for international use. China has started doing that with renminbi - SMcD
And that's going well. Somehow, I'm not getting the urge to buy renminbis or OPEC paper. I'm not envisioning a global stampede here, into the arms of the Arabs or the Red Chinese. I can see a currency basket taking shape over the years, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese were wanting to be part of that, if they can. For myself, I wish the Aussie dollar would come back down a bit!
And how many more weeks will go by before Michael Jackson is buried in the (play)ground?
Shill - I'm not an expert... are those bond results good or bad ?
Scale from 1 to 10. 10 being dislocation, 1 being free money for everyone.... where are we ?
many are concerned it will take years to get back to "normal," or at least the new normal.
How many years will it take to get me back to normal? You know, when I was twenty.
For the bonds auction, is there a graph charting the amount that the primary dealer has accepted/bought in recent weeks?
What's Caruso Cabrera doing partying at Parker Dam, doing research on the meth industry?
OT:
Is QE pushing the 10y's yield down, or are there actual buyers pushing it down? Or both?
"I sense a kermit appearance today"
The plunge protection team is running out of ammo
From the looks of it I would say nasty....Indirect is yours truly, the Fed...
Another "PIG" shaped graph........is this coincidence? I am beginning to see a trend here.....
You're gonna get 1cyogi all upset about Queen Elizabeth tyrranizing Canada again.
From what I see, demand for treasuries is still very high. Absent the fed's support of wall street crap assets, demand for treasuries would be off the charts.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 12:24 pm
This event is a symptom of a basic dysfunction in society. If parts of it begin to fragment, they will be brought together again, maybe in ways that most of us won't care for.
You won't see the emergence of a Cao Cao type figure immediately. You will need several decades of brutal destruction of the infrastructure before you can have a ruthless despotic ruler rise in these territories. Someone trying to crown himself emperor would just be the "Yellow Turbans" of this era. Even if you have the undisputed title, you have the challenge of raising cash to retake more territory with problems raising money.
Large states end up in the kind of condition the US is in because of multigenerational patterns of dysfunction. Someone screaming and waving a pistol behind a podium is just another destructive force in the array of bad actors, past a certain point. The last guy who will ever have had a real go at it was Bush in late 03 / early 04 -- the Republican born-again were in battle array and naive heroism commanded the hearts of the security forces. Nobody will ever get that shot again and any kind of attempt to bypass the electoral process will result in a collapse into regional warfare or you just getting plain old arrested.
Also, the only way anybody is going to get to be dictator any time soon is to be President and take it for a ride. Generals proclaiming themselves in charge? Not a chance. Who even knows who most of those generals are? J. Random Messiah with "New Milennium" written on all his flags? Definitely not that kind of country. So they will have to be chained to the presidnency for 4-6 years first, which will not make anybody look good.
Nobody will ever get the same commonsense-free period Bush had, and it is really hard to legitimate yourself and carnifex rex when the character document of your society describes rules for your regular replacement. Not that it can't happen, but we'll have to have a good long while of regional states shooting at one-another and the general plant of the country getting way run down before that guy can have much of a chance, and at that point, he'll just be another contender, because the bureaucratic apparatus he seizes will be weak enough for him to gain control of it because it's so decayed. Not that being formal top dog is worthless, but we live in a federalized system and the regional power centers might seem quaint right now, but they will get very active and very formidable once they are compelled to take over the rule of large sections of territory. That will happen before anyone can make himself or herself caesar.
Hotels (until the latest round of free money policies) were always projects of hubris, usually took 4 BKs before the last round of owners could make them cashflow properly.
When you see Mr. & Mrs. Patel running the Montelucia in Paradise Valley you'll know they're no longer in the red.
As for SDR's being the new reserve currency, fat chance. It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen.
Shill do you have a link for this 4 Million tab?
Home-Equity Loan and Credit Card Delinquencies Reach Record Since 1974
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Home-Equity Loan and Credit Card Delinquencies Reach Record Since 1974
Shill do you have a link for this 4 Million tab?
L.A. sees $4 million tab from Jackson memorial - MarketWatch
Absolutely insane here we have a state that is in a financial ruin and a person that ran up close to a $billion dollars in debt before his death and now a 4 million dollar funeral...are you F'en kidding me!....
Cremation would have been cheaper....and this escapade...I'll say no more, to keep the PC crowd at bay.
Thanks Shill.
Much appreciated.
You won't see the emergence of a Cao Cao type figure immediately. You will need several decades of brutal destruction of the infrastructure before you can have a ruthless despotic ruler rise in these territories. Someone trying to crown himself emperor would just be the "Yellow Turbans" of this era. Even if you have the undisputed title, you have the challenge of raising cash to retake more territory with problems raising money.
+1 Romance of the Three Kingdoms
Since the Cao (T'sao?) were displaced by the short-lived Jin dynasty, I'm not liking the comparison. It was quite a while after the fall of the Later Han before there was another era of lasting stability and growth--definitely longer than the 1 lifespan I have to spend in it.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:36 pm
As for SDR's being the new reserve currency, fat chance. It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen.
Remember, it doesn't need to WORK, it just needs to do what they want it to. Big difference between those two things. You aren't going to see a new hegemonic currency any time soon because currency power springs from political power. But -- people can push the US into eclipse by having a plan they know won't work or by having a plan that they think will work but that will really blow up. The international community does stupid things all the time. Don't just worry about plans that make sense.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:36 pm
As for SDR's being the new reserve currency, fat chance. It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen.
Remember, it doesn't need to WORK, it just needs to do what they want it to. Big difference between those two things. You aren't going to see a new hegemonic currency any time soon because currency power springs from political power. But -- people can push the US into eclipse by having a plan they know won't work or by having a plan that they think will work but that will really blow up. The international community does stupid things all the time. Don't just worry about plans that make sense.
It's looking like the S&P 500, as a whole, paid out almost 50% more in dividends that it actually earned in Q1. This can't be right...
"As for SDR's being the new reserve currency, fat chance. It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen. "
Our GDP remained large mainly from boost in housing/construction/financial sectors in the last 10 years. Other than that, our manufacturing sector is gone. (Same can be said for most of Europe) And since we need products from China, services from India, Oil from OPEC, I'm sure their new reserve currency will carry alot of weight, once they got rid of enough dollar holdings, and spring this new currency on the world.
By the way, whats with all these people filling a stadium in the early afternoon...DON'T THESE PEOPLE WORK?...oh wait that's right 79 weeks of unemployment checks in Kali.
BR, very good analysis. My dad and I had a recent conversation about this very topic. As much as all the study papers are warning of a military elite power grab coming, what are the chances? We don't have a MacArthur or a Patton today. No disrespect to current active duty generals, but no one has the desire or the charisma to grab the public's attention. And why would they, if they keep their nose clean and stay under the radar, great jobs are for the taking once out on the free market. Funny thing about the disintegration of the US, is I had a dream when I was around 7 or eight, can't remember exactly it was right after we moved to Germany, where the Republic of Texas ruled from the gulf north to the border of Canada. Union of Southern States reassembled the South, two distinct North East countries, Pennsylvania and Ohio, New York and the coastal states. The west was a desert. People lived there but no organized states. Sounded far-fetched back then, not so much anymore.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:42 pm
Since the Cao (T'sao?) were displaced by the short-lived Jin dynasty, I'm not liking the comparison. It was quite a while after the fall of the Later Han before there was another era of lasting stability and growth--definitely longer than the 1 lifespan I have to spend in it.
A friend of the family traveling in China got a very nice Zhuge Liang for my altar.
And yes, it is likely we will go through 2-3 transitional dynasties before we establish a new, stable dynasty, just like it's also likely the Mao will perish in civil unrest. The Chinese are so paranoid about social disorder because they know what happens to transitional dynasties at about this point in the Mao's lifespan.
We need a Funeral Channel, all funerals all the time. We could do funeral news, have abest of show, cremation nation, the advertising and audience would be fabulous!
"We need a Funeral Channel"
The coming Great Die-Off will provide all sorts of content for that.
"From the looks of it I would say nasty....Indirect is yours truly, the Fed... "
Thanks Shill. I didn't know that. And I will probably ask again after the next auction results
Remember, it doesn't need to WORK, it just needs to do what they want it to.
What does China want it to do, keep them at full employment?
What does Russia want it to do, work as a fertility drug?
What does Brazil want it to do, allow it to be self sufficient thru commodities but yet allow them to power export?
What does India want it to do, buy infrastructure equipment on the cheap so they can bring the other 90% of their country into the 19th century?
What do OPEC nations want it to do, behave as a store of wealth?
As long as they their own interests don't align(which they don't), then there's ZERO chance. They're not gonna screw themselves just to screw us(especially since China gets boned if they bone us), except maybe the Russians are bitter enough to try it.
Watch for a possible sell off into the close. We need to sell $19 billion of the 10-year tomorrow.
Isn't this financial stuff fun....
@Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich
"As long as they their own interests don't align"
Wrong. Their interests do align; they want to keep their wealth in a currency that isn't being intentionally devalued by a single entity (Federal Reserve)
re Bond results...
Someone is fishing for deals an putting in low-ball bids. They are not being accepted at the rate they are submitted at. They FED then steps in and soaks up enough to make it appear that it's somewhat healthy.
tendered accepted
Primary Dealer __________ $61,366,000,000 ________ $13,444,941,000
Direct Bidder _____________ $6,764,665,000 _________ $2,604,370,000
Indirect Bidder ___________ $23,368,800,000 ________ $18,878,110,000
Total Competitive _________ $91,499,465,000 ________ $34,927,421,000
Since they changed the classification of what an indirect bidder is this is merely shifting from the primary dealer "bucket" to the indirect bidder bucket. In essence what this is now showing is a bucket that used to only ever hold, say 2lbs, is now shown to hold 5lbs. They then can point to it and say "see the FCB's are buying".
Simple math tells you that there is not much appetite based on tender vs. accepted....the only part that looks ok is the indirect bidder part. Taking into account the rule change of classification it doesn't look like anybody other then the Fed is doing much.
JMO
Ciao
MS
We need a Funeral Channel, all funerals all the time. We could do funeral news, have abest of show, cremation nation, the advertising and audience would be fabulous!
"Funerals.com. We put the Fun into Funerals." -- tagline.
Lear files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"You won't see the emergence of a Cao Cao type figure immediately."
It's the future. The most you get is glimpses. I once won the trifecta at a dog track. I could 'see', in a manner of speaking, which dogs would win, but I couldn't do it again. Professor Hawking says there's a universal censor built into the universe that prevents things like that from happening. Personally, I think that precognition happens, but 'seeing' doesn't mean effective seeing. You can't change what you can see. But in that one case I held the money in my hand in exchange for a ticket.
As for the present crisis, you don't have to be a seer to feel that this may not end well. California seems shaky, and I'm not speaking of earth tremors.
A Vision:
pavel.libsyn.com
our manufacturing sector is gone. (Same can be said for most of Europe)
You're a bigger fool than I had thought, which is saying something. I must've missed that bit when Germany, France & Italy decided to stop making things and went of a FIRE kick.
Dolt.
Please, "go galt" already and stop hovering around internet cafes imparting such "insight".
"We need a Funeral Channel, all funerals all the time. We could do funeral news, have abest of show, cremation nation, the advertising and audience would be fabulous!"
Wouldn't it be boring? Always the same ending.
Wouldn't it be boring? Always the same ending.
Q: Why do they call it a "wake"?
A: Just in case.
/Wouldn't it be boring? Always the same ending. /
It's the journey that matters, not the final destination.
--bh
pavel, that is an interesting quote from Hawking, haven't seen it before. I agree with the part about not being able to change what you can see. We are all Casandra. I have had glimpses of things that only made sense after the fact. Sort of a sub-conscious preparation for an event that my conscious self could only deal with after the fact. I am convinced that time doesn't exist. It is just a stop-gap measure to maintain human sanity.
It's the journey that matters, not the final destination.
Oh how the mind wanders where Mr. Jackson's destination is....
oh wait I could careless.....my bad.
..and don't forget, you could have 'My Redneck Funerals' featuring a lack of taste and sobriety as well as "Big Bling Funerals" featuring 500K or more extravaganzas, including whole viking replica boats being set on fire by expert archarists...
--bh
although not directly on topic did anybody catch our CIC latest statement
"potentially counterproductive if we're spending more money than we're having to borrow"
As former Obama supporter and donor do I feel like ******* ass . Does he not understand that it is precisely because people confused borrowing with income that we are in this mess. It isn't counter productive when you spend more than you can BORROW (that's called bankruptcy) its counter productive when you spend more than you earn.
Will the Democrats, Republicans or any other party please give us an alternative in 2012?
" Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:36 pm
It might be useful as a hedging device, but the BRIC's + OPEC GDP would have to surpass Eurozone and USA GDP for it to happen."
Exactly; in the reserve currency game, size matters...
Bernanke just announced the MJFFF...
The Michael Jackson Funeral Funding Facility.
Personally, I think that precognition happens, but 'seeing' doesn't mean effective seeing.
It doesn't take a wise ear to hear the sound of thunder. These things have a shape that is given to them by the processes taking place. If the US breaks down, it will be a long horrible grind with the central state throwing its weight around for the entire duration of the process. There will be regional states not because people are regionally minded, but because there can't be a vigorous central state because there is one and it can't make effective policy happen.
I'm going long shopping carts - the I-Phone of the new push-around-a-shopping-cart generation.
A friend of the family traveling in China got a very nice Zhuge Liang for my altar.
It could be a fun exercise to debate what our country's Kongming will be like and how (s)he will act in a way to be immortalized in the Annals of History. We already had our Cincinnatus in George Washington. I'm not sure if we have had our equivalent of Zhang Liang (Liu Bang's adviser) either.
As for the Chinese, I'm unsure how the Mandate of Heaven will disappear from the "Mao" Dynasty. I would imagine rising unemployment and less prosperity will do it in, but they haven't really gotten used to a life of materialism so I'm unsure how they will respond when it disappears. Also, I'm unsure if the Han Chinese will remain as cohesive as they are portrayed or if regionalism will break out among their ranks too. Definitely above my hobbyist studies of Chinese history.
" BURN (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:50 pm
"We need a Funeral Channel"
The coming Great Die-Off will provide all sorts of content for that."
Is BURN calling the Rapture?
"pavel, that is an interesting quote from Hawking, haven't seen it before. I agree with the part about not being able to change what you can see. We are all Casandra. I have had glimpses of things that only made sense after the fact. Sort of a sub-conscious preparation for an event that my conscious self could only deal with after the fact. I am convinced that time doesn't exist. It is just a stop-gap measure to maintain human sanity."
I think you're probably right, Vonbek777. Professor Hawking was referring, I think, to the superluminal transfer of information, which is forbidden by Relativity.
I had met my future wife at a volunteer organization, but had never asked her for a date. There was a party, but the address on the notice was wrong. This was near M Street in DC, where there are many large office buildings. I felt very strongly that I wanted to find the party, and somehow, I knew which building it was in. When I walked into it a man in the lobby told me where the party was, and there I found her.
AIG: Summary for AMER INTL GROUP NEW- Yahoo! Finance
Looks like our investment in AIG is tanking - again. No worries, we'll just do another spilt.
" Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 1:51 pm
As long as they their own interests don't align(which they don't), then there's ZERO chance. They're not gonna screw themselves just to screw us(especially since China gets boned if they bone us), except maybe the Russians are bitter enough to try it."
Nice analysis, especially the conclusion-
Has anyone seen a progress report on the streamlined modification plan that the FDIC put in place at IndyMac? We should be able to see some results at this point.
[As former Obama supporter and donor do I feel like ******* ass . Does he not understand that it is precisely because people confused borrowing with income that we are in this mess]
You voted for Obama because of his strong commitment to fiscal discipline ? OMG!!!
"Wouldn't it be boring? Always the same ending.
Q: Why do they call it a "wake"?
A: Just in case."
Similar to how the term "dead ringer" arose-
Who Killed California's Economy?
Who Killed California's Economy? - Forbes.com
Great Forbes article.
Wrong. Their interests do align; they want to keep their wealth in a currency that isn't being intentionally devalued by a single entity (Federal Reserve)
It would probably suffer the same fate as the Euro.
A wake, just in case
Wishful thinking by humans, even unto death.
"Financial innovation" never had a chance.
" broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 2:18 pm
"Financial innovation" never had a chance."
Sure it had a chance, but only for those who got in AND got out early
Not stimulated enough?
I'll throw in a second stimulus set absolutely free*
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. leaders should be open to the possibility of a second stimulus package to further boost the economy, which is still hemorrhaging jobs, House of Representatives Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said on Tuesday.
*Must pay shipping and handling fee of 13.9 Trillion per stimulus.
/Russians are bitter enough to try it/
Official Russian Military Strategic doctrine seeks to create and maintain a multi-polar world, specifically naming the US as a challenge and threat, also noting that economic warfare must be regarded as a viable tool.
It's not lip-service. They are diminished, handicapped, and challenged internally, but it won't be bitterness if they calculate BRIC is in their interests.
This won't be the second stimulus bill, Bush did one when the recession started, so this will be at least the third, maybe fourth.
Pavel,
Low point at Baylor for me, was I could not meet a girl I was willing to date. I actually sunk into a depression because I realized college was a joke, my life after college was going to be high school all over again if I took the corporate road, and I could not meet anyone I could even begin to have a meaningful relationship with. Even though philosophically I had moved to a deist-watchmaker view of God, I stayed up for 72 hours praying and fasting trying to come to terms with my existence. No voices, no answer, but after those three days I had my first ideas about time being linked to the id, ego, and superego. Then I made a decision to leave Baylor. Went out to Ft. Irwin California for the summer, Federal summer jobs program, met my wife on the first day. I knew the moment I met her, she was the one. Can't explain how. Didn't have a logical reason, I just 'knew'. But knowing isn't the same thing as making it happen, let me tell you.
Anyway, I am convinced that the id is governed by the past. We tame our inner beast with thoughts of the past. The ego deals with the present and is a passageway between the id and the superego. Superego deals with the future. I made this easier to understand by assigning virtures. Discipline to the past and id. Dedication to the future and superego, and Determination to the present and ego. I know most people reject the three piece division of the human psyche now, but it still works for me.
Some on-topic random comments:
... United Airline ran an 86% load factor in May. When the economy does start to improve (it will, eventually) then thy will be in a position to set prices quite high for a while.
... On-line hotel reservation brokers buy rooms well in advance, and based on current conditions probably overpaid. I'd suggest comparing their rates with the hotel itself. (If I had done that in May I would have saved 20 Euro/night in Budapest)
casket on the stage, music at ready, cover opens, out jumps singer/dancer. audience gasps and breaks into ecstasy.
A real Thriller!
...and a nod to B_R, it also doesn't mean an attempt to switch to BRIC will be successful, or that it has to be successful.
--bh
off-topic... I wonder if this one was in Dryfly's remuda:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
picosec (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/7/2009 - 11:26 am
... United Airline ran an 86% load factor in May. When the economy does start to improve (it will, eventually) then thy will be in a position to set prices quite high for a while.
That's because of massive idled capacity. Capacity that can come back on line in a matter of weeks.
It's OK folks.
The economy is fine, it's just the weather that's the problem.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Unseasonable weather and consumers without the stimulus boost they received last year were expected to have dampened U.S. retail sales in June, analysts said.
The month was "particularly challenging" for stores selling summer products as the first three weeks were cooler and wetter than usual, according to weather tracking firm Planalytics.
Blame that global warming, ah, I mean climate change.
North Carolina stopped issueing tax refunds because of lack of cash.
Link comrade mike?
@Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich
"I must've missed that bit when Germany, France & Italy decided to stop making things and went of a FIRE kick."
Noticed I said 'most' of europe. Germany and France can't support the lack of economic prowess of their partners in EU, i.e Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal. Wait until England tries to sneak into the EU; that'll be hilariously tragic.
"Please, "go galt" already and stop hovering around internet cafes imparting such "insight". "
I have gone galt already, and have declared it many times. Are you the sucker that's paying 50-60% taxes for the many city services the internet cafe gets? Not including the inflation/robbing of your savings?
"Dolt"
Now now, no need to call me name and show your lack of self control dealing with anonymous users on the internet.