They save in US paper because they sell to the US consumer. If Germany had happened to be the consumer powerhouse then they would be saving in Deutchsmarks.
Dryfly is right on with whats going on in China right now. There is the potential for massive civil unrest in China and many average Chinese actually believe an iron grip is required to keep things from falling apart.
Back in the 80s my in-laws in China were making 30 yuan each a month as a doctor and a physicist. A doctor now could make as much if not more than what one makes in the West assuming they are taking payments under the table. When my wife and her mother left China in the late 80s it took all their life's savings to afford the train from Beijing to the West.
Comparing China now to China 20 years ago is like comparing the US now to the US 100 years ago in terms of the improvements for many Chinese. But anyone other than teenagers remembers how bad it was back then which is why they save life crazy. One needs to travel to China and see it now versus 20 years ago to comprehend how radically things have changed (no matter how bad things may still appear to Westerners).
You put that all together with leaders who want to stay in power, still to this day remember their domination by Western powers (the shame of the late 1800s to mid 1900s is still passed on from generation to generation in the school system and media), need to maintain face at all costs (which non-Chinese will never fully comprehend) and you have a potent mixture of what can go wrong.
China and the US are in a financial MAD situation right now. They both need each other.
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says when it comes to inflation, the Federal Reserve can relax. That kind of talk makes Morgan Stanley nervous. Joachim Fels, co-chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, sees a risk that the Fed will keep the easiest credit since the Great Depression for too long. Ed McKelvey, U.S. economist at Goldman in New York, says those concerns are overblown, and that officials have time to deploy as many as 10 options for ending their $1.1 trillion aid to the banking system and economy without letting consumer prices climb.
China and the US are in a financial MAD situation right now. They both need each other
.
If China moves their investments to short-term notes, then don't renew the notes on maturity, they can get out of USD with minimal loss.
No they can't. They buy US paper to fund the surplus
Ahhh, now we see the real reason.
It's not because they're "saving" because if they were "saving", they'd be putting their "savings' into something that holds value, i.e. the definition of "savings".
this whole time i thought the Chinese were buying US paper to keep interest rates low in order to fuel a housing bubble that would put the whole world at the brink of the Greater Depression.
It's not because they're "saving" because if they were "saving", they'd be putting their "savings' into something that holds value, i.e. the definition of "savings". "
You need to separate out what the average Chinese is doing versus the PBOC. The average Chinese is definitely saving, probably 40% of their take-home due to no social safety net.
poic,
Nice summary of the situation. I agree with your analysis; China needs the US consumer. I'm curious how the average Chinese feels about the Manchu domination that existed before the western powers moved in on China. I'd think that would be more of a sore subject even.
"Nice summary of the situation. I agree with your analysis; China needs the US consumer. I'm curious how the average Chinese feels about the Manchu domination that existed before the western powers moved in on China. I'd think that would be more of a sore subject even."
I get the impression that they are seen as more of a puppet government. But that's more from talking to my wife, but the average Chinese appears to be pretty aware of the history during that period in general.
squidward, if China stops rolling over their short term debt, the dollar explodes. Right then and there. By concentrating their holdings in shorter and shorter term paper they are putting a vice in place that they can use to squeeze us that much harder if and when the time comes that they want to "throw down".
I think an exit strategy for the US-China reserve problem is for US savers to shift into short-term Treasuries as the PBOC exits. Sort of a flight-to-safety by US savers and an exit for China that saves face. At that point the US would be in a Japan-style situation where domestic savers are supporting the national debt. I think the US best-case is years of Japanese-style stagnation, so the shift into govt debt by US savers wouldn't make a difference.
if China stops rolling over their short term debt, the dollar explodes. Right then and there.
Does it? If they sell 10% of the worlds greenbacks, does the dollar fall by much more than 10% ?
Sure, interest rates will skyrocket, by why would the sale of greenbacks affect the prices of existing contracts for, say, cotton?
The only way vacancies stay below 20% is if wildfires, hurricanes and a lot of "Philadelphia lightning" storms blow through the country to reduce class A CRE stock.
That chart pr0n is amazing, I'd love to see an overlay of that with employment over the same time series.
Yes Comrade, I agree. Looking at that chart, it seems gutless to predict a vacancy rate less than 19%....given what we're facing this time compared to the early 90's.
Assembly speaker boycotts budget talks
Budget negotiations broke down today when Assembly Speaker Karen Bass refused to meet with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger because he is insisting that a package of solutions to close the state's deficit include long-term changes to reduce spending.
Just finished reading "When Giants Fall", Panzner's follow on to "Financial Armageddon". He was pretty much on with the first book, but we all better hope he's not on the second. Not quite "American Apocalypse", but definitely shades of Argentina amidst a world more akin to the earlier 20th Century than later.
that's odd because one of Cambodia's backbones comes via China and I am having trouble getting on YouTube....
it's odd that they'd be doing site maintenance....
....
read through all that Goldman stuff at ZeroHedge... amazing how many theories there are, will say that 32 mg is large for
source code... and the fact that the guy didn't seem to be aware of bash trail or the HIST var...
....
no offense to CR, but some of the handles on ZH are quite funny and tend to be movie based - me like
....
edit
at some point if Tyler Durden at ZH becomes too successful the author or studio can sue for copyright infringement
not really - that would only have legs if there was a potential for confusion, something which can be construed as an endorsement from the owners of the character, and/or significant commercial exploitation of the name. kinda fails on all 3...
kung.fu wrote: I'm curious how the average Chinese feels about the Manchu domination that existed before the western powers moved in on China. I'd think that would be more of a sore subject even.
If you haven't noticed when the Manchu's conquered China they ended up being absorbed by the Han Chinese. Look at the map today and see where Manchuria is located. No, the average Chinese is not resentful at the outcome of that demographic struggle.
Control of the internet backbone transmission net (carriers), switching centers, and blocking of name/ip lookup is in very few hands - even in the US. Shutting down protests (as Iran has shown) is now routine with force and info cutoff.
It will be easy to switch the meme from 'we have always been at war with Oceania' to we have always been at war with Eurasia.' Orwell was prescient.
Enjoy your blogs while you can. GS will have zerohedge at the top of the shutdown list.
Ravi Batra was right in a way. It's rich guys that cause depressions and the mechanism is wealth distribution but it's the Tragedy Of The Commons that makes it inevitable.
Google has been suspiscious for some time.
You goof around with information long enough and you discover that synchronicity exists and then you start wondering about destiny and free will and right and wrong.
I remember when the Anarchos thought the Internet was some kind of Digital Ayn Rand come to deliver them from oppression.
They never wanted to make the hard moral decisions.
You forget something.. Control requires a functional system. The more functional a system, the better the control. The less functional a system is, the more easily control breaks down.
Do you really think that the chinese government can control anything if it's people think that their living standard won't improve?
//Control of the internet backbone transmission net (carriers), switching centers, and blocking of name/ip lookup is in very few hands - even in the US. Shutting down protests (as Iran has shown) is now routine with force and info cutoff.//
HollywoodHack,
I need to get out my Berne Convention for review but I think that using the name Tyler Durden falls way outside of Fair Use,
I believe it's actionable by either the author or the studio...
to test out my theory try and use the name Holden Caulfield as your handle on your blog and see how far that gets you...
J.D. will sue the pants off you!
a friend of mine named DJ Spooky (Paul Miller) who was quite big in sampling in the 90s
says its all about the number of ears that listen to the work... you need to reach a critical mass, and perhaps Tyler Durden is not there yet but if he does...
....
take for instance The Grey Album (granted it's music and therefore different...)
(acc. to Wikipedia) is a mashup album by Danger Mouse, released in 2004. It uses an a cappella version of rapper Jay-Z's The Black Album and couples it with instrumentals created from a multitude of unauthorized samples from The Beatles' LP The Beatles (more commonly known as The White Album). The Grey Album gained notoriety due to the response by EMI in attempting to halt its distribution.
OT / gnashing of the teeth moment: I came up with a story in that was nearly identical
to George's story in the Soup Nazi episode on Seinfeld 4 years before it aired.
On two occasions I became engaged in an eyeball to eyeball shouting match with that soup seller.
The first time was in Nov. 92, and I then boycotted the place until one cold, wet day in March '93. Had
a killing urge for the shrimp bisque. Again we jostled over something simple as bread and butter.
I ordered soup and as he was bagging it I added, "and bread and butter, please." He said, "that's $1.95 and pointed
to a sign." I asked, "doesn't it come free with the soup? you gave the girl in front of me bread." He said, "yes, she ordered soup and bread... but you ordered soup and then you ordered bread, so that's an extra 1.95!" It was eyeball to eyeball once more and neither were going to blink. I threw everything at him I could think of including quoting the the American Chamber of Commerce! I remembered looking back in line for support and they were 'sheeple'...like those zombies in Apple's 1984 commercial, afraid to make a peep! And what floored me most was theywere New Yorkers!)
...
my mistake was that I pitched the story in its raconteur form to the wrong group of
people (management consultants at E&Y: my employer at time)... here was a surreal and hilarious comedic episode
and my audience literally sat on there hands...
for the record I have never sat through that episode in its entirety,
the little bit of George's scene I have seen is too similar to mine but yet not
as rich in funnier, more subtle detail (EDIT)
either the writer of that episode (who worked for Letterman at the time, a few blocks away)
experienced that himself or saw one of my performances (I should have been given a Tony on the spot
since the shop was at 8th/46th!)
granted the use of the 'Soup Nazi' hook was clever, I could never have come up with that
since he looked nothing like a Nazi and in my eyes was no Nazi, more like
a Psycho Saucier!
but under copyright I can use my story since I can document that I performed said story
before an audience some 4+ years before it appeared on Seinfeld... I just can't use features
unique to their script.
lesson learned the hard way - "know your audience!"
negativity or indifference is deadly in puncturing the balloon of creativity!
thanks Lucifer for that CrunchPad tip... reading about it now.
very fascinating!
A knowledgeable industry source confirmed yesterday that, as part of their efforts to roll back the Obama proposal for a consumer financial products regulator, several lobbying organizations representing banks are developing a "Harry and Louise"-style ad campaign, after the commercials that targeted the Clinton healthcare plan in the early '90s. The ads will emphasize the intrusiveness of the proposal--of the government "telling you what you can and can't buy," according to the source. The hope is to run them sometime in July, when House Financial Services chairman Barney Frank plans to move the measure through his committee.
The coalition has solicited pitches from at least four advertising firms. The source didn't specify the price tag for the campaign, but, perhaps tellingly, said it's intended to counter what the coalition expects to be $5 million in spending from consumer groups.
I may want correction on these assumptions, but, on China, I understand their purchases of Agency debt and Treasuries matches the balance of trade deficit, which has narrowed considerably as both our imports from and exports to China have fallen. So, while they continue to make purchases, and to move holdings from Agency into short-term US paper, their shrinking participation in purchases here would be considered a normal function of the narrowing trade gap. Is this incorrect?
I understand also that, as of about this time last year, exports to the US comprised about 15-16% of China's global trade. And that, of the PBoC's holdings, some 700-800 Billion are dollar-denominated US instruments. Are we sometimes overstating the current importance of US/China trade to both countries - or are our perceptions locked into figures now three or four years out of date?
So, while they continue to make purchases, and to move holdings from Agency into short-term US paper, their shrinking participation in purchases here would be considered a normal function of the narrowing trade gap. Is this incorrect?
That's the way I understand it. All of the dollars we spend on their goods are going to come back here one way or another. They just pick which way -- with an eye to keeping the yuan/dollar exchange rate where they want it.
The more interesting question is who, if our appetite for international goods continues to shrink, will be buying all those Treasurys that O is planning to float. And at what rate.
That is an interesting, not to say vital, question.
I'm probably very nearly alone in seeing China fail to maintain export and, more importantly, fail to convert to an internal, consumerist economy in time to avoid blowing through its reserves. And to say that cracks are appearing in Russia's balance sheet would be wrong - they're already fissures. I anticipate they will be net sellers of US debt shortly if they aren't already.
Of all the global alternatives for stores of value, however, dollar-denominated instruments may well end by becoming the only possible choice among a very nasty lot. Can't help considering, however, that total assets available for investment may be insufficient to meet US official appetite for taking on new debt.
burnside,
you are not the only one when it comes to China... many of your points I agree with.
even Chairman Mao acknowledged that he could not defeat Confucianism and boy did
he try! even to the point of introducing new ideograms and steering the country towards
the legalist philosophy of Han Fei Tzu...
my time frame for China becoming a consumerist society is about 25-30 years....
Haha, I've become numb to the SRS loss I'm still sitting on.
Talk to me about my EEV...I think I might have actually correctly timed the bottom on SDS this time...perhaps now that GS's proprietary manipulation software is out there in the wild, these will start moving up again as they should.
I need to do some digging on ACP...there has got to be a way to get a handle on what their occupancy rates are like...last night's NoVa news was great on this score.
Curious, guys...........Our youngest has a cell-phone that can go online. It can play mp3s but it sounds like crap - worse than the old hand held transistor radios. Do any cell-phones also have exceptional music playing and recording capability utilizing exterior speakers?
Step one, have a look at the self-exemptions available and consider whether that's really smart regulation. Step two, enforce "fictitious trades" clauses.
Could be the end of the CFTC as we know it ... and I feel fine.
Thomas Laubach, the US Federal Reserve’s senior economist, calculated the impact on long-term interest rates of rising fiscal deficits and soaring national debt. Applying his assumptions to the recent spike in the US fiscal deficit and national debt, long-term interests rates will double from their current 3.5pc.
The impact would be devastating by making it punitively expensive to finance national borrowings and leading to what Tim Congdon, founder of Lombard Street Research, called a “debt explosion”
@BSR: I think it's called an iPhone - you know, an iPod with a telephone...
@Broward - I believe Volker is the Ms., though perhaps she is in Iowa or Mass. or Vt., and there is a Mrs.
The New Yorker piece on the Tan Man was interesting - he really doesn't come off as nearly so evil - more like a salesman who drank a lot of his own Kool-Ade and actually did believe in a certain amount of doing the right thing. Softened me considerably, even if it reconfirmed why I can' t stand marketing/salestypes (the "production side" in this telling).
The best salesmen always trick themselves into believing their own guff. I worked for one of the best salesmen in the business who convinced himself and several hundred employees that we'd all be millionaires. The fallout was enormous. I never drank deep and left before The Reckoning but heard tales Of The Big Woe and how it affected him.
In some ways, that's a measure of U.S. culture, too.
Most Americans want to be lied to.
"Demand has been rising at the U.S. sales, especially from the class of investors that includes foreign central banks. Those investors, which the Treasury labels “indirect bidders,” bought 49.7 percent of the TIPS sold yesterday, compared with 26.2 percent in the prior auction in April. They purchased 67.2 percent of a record $27 billion in seven-year notes sold June 25, double the amount at the prior sale in May."
......Didn't I just read a report that said in effect that ALL buyers of bonds (with exception of primary dealers) are now placed into this category - thereby inflating the "amount of Treasury demand"?
There is lots of talk about "fictitious" trading when discussing program trading. Program trading results in actual trades (many of them). Fictitious trades in most instances are trades which are prearranged or trades that are made between traders colluding to push up or down the price. Fictitious trades are illegal. Program trading is distinctly different.
shill you would think that the state could have planned things a little bit better. it isnt like it was a shock they did ious in what 92? geez no planning at all.
broward, you know i think you are right most americans want to be lied,and if you dont lie to them they go around until they find someone who will lie to them. the lie they want to hear,like sure i think you can afford that house its only 10 times your annual salary.
traderwalt: you find yourself in the precarious position of defending the damned. Stop with the digging and hand me the shovel. You can thank me later.
"The U.S. should consider drafting a second stimulus package focusing on infrastructure projects because the $787 billion approved in February was “a bit too small,” said Laura Tyson, an adviser to President Barack Obama."
......Ahhhhh......."a bit too small"..........another trial balloon goes aloft.
BSR: I could use a couple million to redo my driveway, fix the culvert at the edge of the road. I know it's not a lot, but it is infrastructure. Do you think they might just do a direct deposit to my account for this? I'd really get stimulated if they did.
traderwalt: I'm holding my thumb and forefinger about 1/32 of an inch apart as a way of describing the difference between program trading and fictitious trading. Sure there's a difference, but it's all the necessary distance and not one whit more.
You will also need to get tax money for the long term care and maintenance for Sweeping, snow removal and cleaning the culvert. More government jobs! Wonder why the stimulus bill is not working?
poic
you said that non-orientals would not understand about "face" well amercians are up there with orientals when it comes to face. most dont even realize it. or know what it means. maybe we are worse because do back down in anyway means we lose face(to us).even if we dont call it that. even cutting off our noses to spite our face.
this is my opinion only.
great work Ben! In fact I could do a long term study on the possibilities and probabilities of snow in Louisiana. There's a distinct difference, two sets of data, one for probability and one for possibility. Prolly want to ask for money on the possibility of snow. Better odds.
One can be very profitable and is illegal, the other may or may not be profitable and is legal presently. Maybe I see the difference more clearly, because I'm been watching and trading for a long time.
More government jobs! Wonder why the stimulus bill is not working?
Wages are too low.
We need a new stimulus bill with "affirmative action".
Just as minorities needed special protection to make up for decades of discrimination, gov't workers need higher-than-private-industry wages to make up for the decades of below-average-wages.
by the way i think we have some of that stimulus. been noticing some used to be rough roads are now paved. including one that has the inner lanes re done.
Green shoots? oops.. brown shoots.
But I weep for my SRS
picosec,
Haha, I've become numb to the SRS loss I'm still sitting on.
"
And we wonder why they save.
No, we wonder why they save in US paper."
They save in US paper because they sell to the US consumer. If Germany had happened to be the consumer powerhouse then they would be saving in Deutchsmarks.
Dryfly is right on with whats going on in China right now. There is the potential for massive civil unrest in China and many average Chinese actually believe an iron grip is required to keep things from falling apart.
Back in the 80s my in-laws in China were making 30 yuan each a month as a doctor and a physicist. A doctor now could make as much if not more than what one makes in the West assuming they are taking payments under the table. When my wife and her mother left China in the late 80s it took all their life's savings to afford the train from Beijing to the West.
Comparing China now to China 20 years ago is like comparing the US now to the US 100 years ago in terms of the improvements for many Chinese. But anyone other than teenagers remembers how bad it was back then which is why they save life crazy. One needs to travel to China and see it now versus 20 years ago to comprehend how radically things have changed (no matter how bad things may still appear to Westerners).
You put that all together with leaders who want to stay in power, still to this day remember their domination by Western powers (the shame of the late 1800s to mid 1900s is still passed on from generation to generation in the school system and media), need to maintain face at all costs (which non-Chinese will never fully comprehend) and you have a potent mixture of what can go wrong.
China and the US are in a financial MAD situation right now. They both need each other.
Looks like the variable and at least the first and second derivatives are positive. But compared to 2001 they're still baby steps.
Quiet here. Is there a hot dog eating contest we're missing out on?
Goldman Says Morgan Is All Wrong About Fed’s Quantitative Exit
Goldman Says Morgan Is All Wrong About Fed’s Quantitative Exit - Bloomberg.com
By Scott Lanman and Steve Matthews
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says when it comes to inflation, the Federal Reserve can relax. That kind of talk makes Morgan Stanley nervous. Joachim Fels, co-chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, sees a risk that the Fed will keep the easiest credit since the Great Depression for too long. Ed McKelvey, U.S. economist at Goldman in New York, says those concerns are overblown, and that officials have time to deploy as many as 10 options for ending their $1.1 trillion aid to the banking system and economy without letting consumer prices climb.
They save in US paper because they sell to the US consumer.
Disagree.
They could easily dump that paper for commodities or other paper.
everyone weeps for srs..the GS red headed step child!
over it is!
"
They save in US paper because they sell to the US consumer.
Disagree.
They could easily dump that paper for commodities or other paper."
No they can't. They buy US paper to fund the surplus. When they don't run a surplus they will stop buying UST.
China and the US are in a financial MAD situation right now. They both need each other
.
If China moves their investments to short-term notes, then don't renew the notes on maturity, they can get out of USD with minimal loss.
No they can't. They buy US paper to fund the surplus
Ahhh, now we see the real reason.
It's not because they're "saving" because if they were "saving", they'd be putting their "savings' into something that holds value, i.e. the definition of "savings".
this whole time i thought the Chinese were buying US paper to keep interest rates low in order to fuel a housing bubble that would put the whole world at the brink of the Greater Depression.
the Chinese made us do it!
"Ahhh, now we see the real reason.
It's not because they're "saving" because if they were "saving", they'd be putting their "savings' into something that holds value, i.e. the definition of "savings". "
You need to separate out what the average Chinese is doing versus the PBOC. The average Chinese is definitely saving, probably 40% of their take-home due to no social safety net.
poic,
Nice summary of the situation. I agree with your analysis; China needs the US consumer. I'm curious how the average Chinese feels about the Manchu domination that existed before the western powers moved in on China. I'd think that would be more of a sore subject even.
You need to separate out what the average Chinese is doing versus the PBOC
No, i don't.
You're the one that made the claim.
By separating them, you just admitted that they COULD be saving their money in non-U.S. paper.
"Nice summary of the situation. I agree with your analysis; China needs the US consumer. I'm curious how the average Chinese feels about the Manchu domination that existed before the western powers moved in on China. I'd think that would be more of a sore subject even."
I get the impression that they are seen as more of a puppet government. But that's more from talking to my wife, but the average Chinese appears to be pretty aware of the history during that period in general.
squidward, if China stops rolling over their short term debt, the dollar explodes. Right then and there. By concentrating their holdings in shorter and shorter term paper they are putting a vice in place that they can use to squeeze us that much harder if and when the time comes that they want to "throw down".
I think an exit strategy for the US-China reserve problem is for US savers to shift into short-term Treasuries as the PBOC exits. Sort of a flight-to-safety by US savers and an exit for China that saves face. At that point the US would be in a Japan-style situation where domestic savers are supporting the national debt. I think the US best-case is years of Japanese-style stagnation, so the shift into govt debt by US savers wouldn't make a difference.
if China stops rolling over their short term debt, the dollar explodes. Right then and there.
Does it? If they sell 10% of the worlds greenbacks, does the dollar fall by much more than 10% ?
Sure, interest rates will skyrocket, by why would the sale of greenbacks affect the prices of existing contracts for, say, cotton?
The dollar would explode, but US consumers aren't going to be buying a lot anyway. Milking the last mile out of your auto, Cuba-style, will be common.
The interest rate rise might even make the dollar go UP temporarily
(might)
"Given the depth and magnitude of the recession, you can argue that we are facing a storm of epic proportions and we're only at the beginning."
This man needs some re-education.
The only way vacancies stay below 20% is if wildfires, hurricanes and a lot of "Philadelphia lightning" storms blow through the country to reduce class A CRE stock.
That chart pr0n is amazing, I'd love to see an overlay of that with employment over the same time series.
Yes Comrade, I agree. Looking at that chart, it seems gutless to predict a vacancy rate less than 19%....given what we're facing this time compared to the early 90's.
Milking the last mile out of your auto, Cuba-style, will be common.
Makes that clunker law look like a really bad idea. Adios source of junk yard parts.
what was it some were saying last week about the restaurants in their areas being busy?
what is that saying about drawing a line through a single point?
Oceanaire restaurant chain files for Chapter 11 - Denver Business Journal:
Oceanaire restaurant chain files for Chapter 11
CR is taking the over! All is right with the blogosphere once again.
It will be interesting to see the property tax responses to crashing CRE values.
from the last chain:
" ghostfaceinvestah,
The reader comments on that sfgate article are a hoot."
The reader comments on sfgate really are great, recommended reading for anyone.
Gestalt.
The 2009 Failed States Index | Foreign Policy
CA is so screwed.
Assembly speaker boycotts budget talks
Budget negotiations broke down today when Assembly Speaker Karen Bass refused to meet with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger because he is insisting that a package of solutions to close the state's deficit include long-term changes to reduce spending.
no doubt has been remarked on but China seems to know
how to clamp down fast on a region... up there cell phone lines
are down, Internet off, etc...
Duke,
my brother is still having problems with Google this evening. Seems like there's still filtering going on since the protests a few months ago.
Just finished reading "When Giants Fall", Panzner's follow on to "Financial Armageddon". He was pretty much on with the first book, but we all better hope he's not on the second. Not quite "American Apocalypse", but definitely shades of Argentina amidst a world more akin to the earlier 20th Century than later.
that's odd because one of Cambodia's backbones comes via China and I am having trouble getting on YouTube....
it's odd that they'd be doing site maintenance....
....
read through all that Goldman stuff at ZeroHedge... amazing how many theories there are, will say that 32 mg is large for
source code... and the fact that the guy didn't seem to be aware of bash trail or the HIST var...
....
no offense to CR, but some of the handles on ZH are quite funny and tend to be movie based - me like
....
edit
at some point if Tyler Durden at ZH becomes too successful the author or studio can sue for copyright infringement
"can sue for copyright infringement "
not really - that would only have legs if there was a potential for confusion, something which can be construed as an endorsement from the owners of the character, and/or significant commercial exploitation of the name. kinda fails on all 3...
They save in US paper because they sell to the US consumer.
Disagree!
Can be used someway else then it!
@Duke, Poic.
Yes, I heard too about this downtime. Few of my colleagues were also coming up with talk about internet and phone lines getting down.
kung.fu wrote:
I'm curious how the average Chinese feels about the Manchu domination that existed before the western powers moved in on China. I'd think that would be more of a sore subject even.
If you haven't noticed when the Manchu's conquered China they ended up being absorbed by the Han Chinese. Look at the map today and see where Manchuria is located. No, the average Chinese is not resentful at the outcome of that demographic struggle.
Control of the internet backbone transmission net (carriers), switching centers, and blocking of name/ip lookup is in very few hands - even in the US. Shutting down protests (as Iran has shown) is now routine with force and info cutoff.
It will be easy to switch the meme from 'we have always been at war with Oceania' to we have always been at war with Eurasia.' Orwell was prescient.
Enjoy your blogs while you can. GS will have zerohedge at the top of the shutdown list.
Ravi Batra was right in a way. It's rich guys that cause depressions and the mechanism is wealth distribution but it's the Tragedy Of The Commons that makes it inevitable.
Google has been suspiscious for some time.
You goof around with information long enough and you discover that synchronicity exists and then you start wondering about destiny and free will and right and wrong.
I remember when the Anarchos thought the Internet was some kind of Digital Ayn Rand come to deliver them from oppression.
They never wanted to make the hard moral decisions.
You forget something.. Control requires a functional system. The more functional a system, the better the control. The less functional a system is, the more easily control breaks down.
Do you really think that the chinese government can control anything if it's people think that their living standard won't improve?
//Control of the internet backbone transmission net (carriers), switching centers, and blocking of name/ip lookup is in very few hands - even in the US. Shutting down protests (as Iran has shown) is now routine with force and info cutoff.//
Nope, it does something else and far more scary. It amplifies instability and allows things that would otherwise be impossible.
//I remember when the Anarchos thought the Internet was some kind of Digital Ayn Rand come to deliver them from oppression.//
Human beings have as much control over their destiny as a bunch or termites have over theirs... Every empire that ever existed had died... why?
//You goof around with information long enough and you discover that synchronicity exists//
HollywoodHack,
I need to get out my Berne Convention for review but I think that using the name Tyler Durden falls way outside of Fair Use,
I believe it's actionable by either the author or the studio...
to test out my theory try and use the name Holden Caulfield as your handle on your blog and see how far that gets you...
J.D. will sue the pants off you!
a friend of mine named DJ Spooky (Paul Miller) who was quite big in sampling in the 90s
says its all about the number of ears that listen to the work... you need to reach a critical mass, and perhaps Tyler Durden is not there yet but if he does...
....
take for instance The Grey Album (granted it's music and therefore different...)
(acc. to Wikipedia) is a mashup album by Danger Mouse, released in 2004. It uses an a cappella version of rapper Jay-Z's The Black Album and couples it with instrumentals created from a multitude of unauthorized samples from The Beatles' LP The Beatles (more commonly known as The White Album). The Grey Album gained notoriety due to the response by EMI in attempting to halt its distribution.
OT / gnashing of the teeth moment: I came up with a story in that was nearly identical
to George's story in the Soup Nazi episode on Seinfeld 4 years before it aired.
On two occasions I became engaged in an eyeball to eyeball shouting match with that soup seller.
The first time was in Nov. 92, and I then boycotted the place until one cold, wet day in March '93. Had
a killing urge for the shrimp bisque. Again we jostled over something simple as bread and butter.
I ordered soup and as he was bagging it I added, "and bread and butter, please." He said, "that's $1.95 and pointed
to a sign." I asked, "doesn't it come free with the soup? you gave the girl in front of me bread." He said, "yes, she ordered soup and bread... but you ordered soup and then you ordered bread, so that's an extra 1.95!" It was eyeball to eyeball once more and neither were going to blink. I threw everything at him I could think of including quoting the the American Chamber of Commerce! I remembered looking back in line for support and they were 'sheeple'...like those zombies in Apple's 1984 commercial, afraid to make a peep! And what floored me most was theywere New Yorkers!)
...
my mistake was that I pitched the story in its raconteur form to the wrong group of
people (management consultants at E&Y: my employer at time)... here was a surreal and hilarious comedic episode
and my audience literally sat on there hands...
for the record I have never sat through that episode in its entirety,
the little bit of George's scene I have seen is too similar to mine but yet not
as rich in funnier, more subtle detail (EDIT)
either the writer of that episode (who worked for Letterman at the time, a few blocks away)
experienced that himself or saw one of my performances (I should have been given a Tony on the spot
since the shop was at 8th/46th!)
granted the use of the 'Soup Nazi' hook was clever, I could never have come up with that
since he looked nothing like a Nazi and in my eyes was no Nazi, more like
a Psycho Saucier!
but under copyright I can use my story since I can document that I performed said story
before an audience some 4+ years before it appeared on Seinfeld... I just can't use features
unique to their script.
lesson learned the hard way - "know your audience!"
negativity or indifference is deadly in puncturing the balloon of creativity!
thanks Lucifer for that CrunchPad tip... reading about it now.
very fascinating!
Duke of Con Dao,
You might find this interesting..
CrunchPad - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
BREAKING NEWS: Banks Planning "Harry and Louise" Ads
The Page You Are Looking For May Have Moved | The New Republic
A knowledgeable industry source confirmed yesterday that, as part of their efforts to roll back the Obama proposal for a consumer financial products regulator, several lobbying organizations representing banks are developing a "Harry and Louise"-style ad campaign, after the commercials that targeted the Clinton healthcare plan in the early '90s. The ads will emphasize the intrusiveness of the proposal--of the government "telling you what you can and can't buy," according to the source. The hope is to run them sometime in July, when House Financial Services chairman Barney Frank plans to move the measure through his committee.
The coalition has solicited pitches from at least four advertising firms. The source didn't specify the price tag for the campaign, but, perhaps tellingly, said it's intended to counter what the coalition expects to be $5 million in spending from consumer groups.
--Noam Scheiber
deleted
Late night CNBC has an article coming up about Hawaiian hotels at 50% occupancy. Ouch.
I may want correction on these assumptions, but, on China, I understand their purchases of Agency debt and Treasuries matches the balance of trade deficit, which has narrowed considerably as both our imports from and exports to China have fallen. So, while they continue to make purchases, and to move holdings from Agency into short-term US paper, their shrinking participation in purchases here would be considered a normal function of the narrowing trade gap. Is this incorrect?
I understand also that, as of about this time last year, exports to the US comprised about 15-16% of China's global trade. And that, of the PBoC's holdings, some 700-800 Billion are dollar-denominated US instruments. Are we sometimes overstating the current importance of US/China trade to both countries - or are our perceptions locked into figures now three or four years out of date?
thanks... barracks are on Koh Kong and elsewhere for special ops (Cambodian), from what I understand
this is their big kahuna here
.....
So, while they continue to make purchases, and to move holdings from Agency into short-term US paper, their shrinking participation in purchases here would be considered a normal function of the narrowing trade gap. Is this incorrect?
That's the way I understand it. All of the dollars we spend on their goods are going to come back here one way or another. They just pick which way -- with an eye to keeping the yuan/dollar exchange rate where they want it.
The more interesting question is who, if our appetite for international goods continues to shrink, will be buying all those Treasurys that O is planning to float. And at what rate.
The CrunchPad is interesting. I could see them killing Amazon's Kindle. Cheap, tough devices to flow digital content to.
Transistor radios for digital content...Somebody is going to make $ and it won't be me
That is an interesting, not to say vital, question.
I'm probably very nearly alone in seeing China fail to maintain export and, more importantly, fail to convert to an internal, consumerist economy in time to avoid blowing through its reserves. And to say that cracks are appearing in Russia's balance sheet would be wrong - they're already fissures. I anticipate they will be net sellers of US debt shortly if they aren't already.
Of all the global alternatives for stores of value, however, dollar-denominated instruments may well end by becoming the only possible choice among a very nasty lot. Can't help considering, however, that total assets available for investment may be insufficient to meet US official appetite for taking on new debt.
nova...
the CrunchPad sounds interesting... but what's the deal with Louis Monier?
seems to be on the rabbity side?
burnside,
you are not the only one when it comes to China... many of your points I agree with.
even Chairman Mao acknowledged that he could not defeat Confucianism and boy did
he try! even to the point of introducing new ideograms and steering the country towards
the legalist philosophy of Han Fei Tzu...
my time frame for China becoming a consumerist society is about 25-30 years....
Haha, I've become numb to the SRS loss I'm still sitting on.
Talk to me about my EEV...I think I might have actually correctly timed the bottom on SDS this time...perhaps now that GS's proprietary manipulation software is out there in the wild, these will start moving up again as they should.
I need to do some digging on ACP...there has got to be a way to get a handle on what their occupancy rates are like...last night's NoVa news was great on this score.
Yawwwn. Out of java. Looks like instant in the Mary-Nam.
More confusion in global commentary, this time via bloomie, not sure if the Lagarde quote is accurate but I wouldn't be surprised:
Debt Burden Quickens Power Shift as G-8 Loses Clout (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
C
this chart looks familiar, something about it that reminds me of something, just can't quite put my finger on it........
this chart looks familiar, something about it that reminds me of something
Mrs Volker?
volker
are you talking about "the cat in the hat" chart?
Curious, guys...........Our youngest has a cell-phone that can go online. It can play mp3s but it sounds like crap - worse than the old hand held transistor radios. Do any cell-phones also have exceptional music playing and recording capability utilizing exterior speakers?
the Chinese made us do it!
That's "savings glut" theory in a nutshell.
OMG, CFTC Reads Own Legislation Shocker!
Oil, Gas Market Speculation May Face Restrictions (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
Step one, have a look at the self-exemptions available and consider whether that's really smart regulation. Step two, enforce "fictitious trades" clauses.
Could be the end of the CFTC as we know it ... and I feel fine.
C
CR never posts the "good stuff".
US lurching towards 'debt explosion' with long-term interest rates on course to double - Telegraph
Thomas Laubach, the US Federal Reserve’s senior economist, calculated the impact on long-term interest rates of rising fiscal deficits and soaring national debt. Applying his assumptions to the recent spike in the US fiscal deficit and national debt, long-term interests rates will double from their current 3.5pc.
The impact would be devastating by making it punitively expensive to finance national borrowings and leading to what Tim Congdon, founder of Lombard Street Research, called a “debt explosion”
@BSR: I think it's called an iPhone - you know, an iPod with a telephone...
@Broward - I believe Volker is the Ms., though perhaps she is in Iowa or Mass. or Vt., and there is a Mrs.
The New Yorker piece on the Tan Man was interesting - he really doesn't come off as nearly so evil - more like a salesman who drank a lot of his own Kool-Ade and actually did believe in a certain amount of doing the right thing. Softened me considerably, even if it reconfirmed why I can' t stand marketing/salestypes (the "production side" in this telling).
a salesman who drank a lot of his own Kool-Ade
The best salesmen always trick themselves into believing their own guff. I worked for one of the best salesmen in the business who convinced himself and several hundred employees that we'd all be millionaires. The fallout was enormous. I never drank deep and left before The Reckoning but heard tales Of The Big Woe and how it affected him.
In some ways, that's a measure of U.S. culture, too.
Most Americans want to be lied to.
Big Banks Don't Want California's IOUs
Big Banks Don't Want California's IOUs - WSJ.com
"Demand has been rising at the U.S. sales, especially from the class of investors that includes foreign central banks. Those investors, which the Treasury labels “indirect bidders,” bought 49.7 percent of the TIPS sold yesterday, compared with 26.2 percent in the prior auction in April. They purchased 67.2 percent of a record $27 billion in seven-year notes sold June 25, double the amount at the prior sale in May."
......Didn't I just read a report that said in effect that ALL buyers of bonds (with exception of primary dealers) are now placed into this category - thereby inflating the "amount of Treasury demand"?
no, it's not a cat, at least I don't think so.............
does anyone else see a sort of over the shoulder and from behind look at Marge Simpson?
There is lots of talk about "fictitious" trading when discussing program trading. Program trading results in actual trades (many of them). Fictitious trades in most instances are trades which are prearranged or trades that are made between traders colluding to push up or down the price. Fictitious trades are illegal. Program trading is distinctly different.
shill you would think that the state could have planned things a little bit better. it isnt like it was a shock they did ious in what 92? geez no planning at all.
broward, you know i think you are right most americans want to be lied,and if you dont lie to them they go around until they find someone who will lie to them. the lie they want to hear,like sure i think you can afford that house its only 10 times your annual salary.
traderwalt: you find yourself in the precarious position of defending the damned. Stop with the digging and hand me the shovel. You can thank me later.
Volker, there may be lots of narfariousness going on. But to understand it and hopefully stop it, we must be careful to accurately describe it.
Unexpected: Faux News broadcasts 4:22 minutes of truth.
7/5/09 Gerald Celente on Fox News: Obamageddon is coming!
YouTube - 7/5/09 Gerald Celente on Fox News: Obamageddon is coming!
traderwalt, appreciate your drawing the distinction. I see I have some studying to do . . .
"The U.S. should consider drafting a second stimulus package focusing on infrastructure projects because the $787 billion approved in February was “a bit too small,” said Laura Tyson, an adviser to President Barack Obama."
......Ahhhhh......."a bit too small"..........another trial balloon goes aloft.
BSR: I could use a couple million to redo my driveway, fix the culvert at the edge of the road. I know it's not a lot, but it is infrastructure. Do you think they might just do a direct deposit to my account for this? I'd really get stimulated if they did.
traderwalt: I'm holding my thumb and forefinger about 1/32 of an inch apart as a way of describing the difference between program trading and fictitious trading. Sure there's a difference, but it's all the necessary distance and not one whit more.
Volker,
You will also need to get tax money for the long term care and maintenance for Sweeping, snow removal and cleaning the culvert. More government jobs! Wonder why the stimulus bill is not working?
poic
you said that non-orientals would not understand about "face" well amercians are up there with orientals when it comes to face. most dont even realize it. or know what it means. maybe we are worse because do back down in anyway means we lose face(to us).even if we dont call it that. even cutting off our noses to spite our face.
this is my opinion only.
great work Ben! In fact I could do a long term study on the possibilities and probabilities of snow in Louisiana. There's a distinct difference, two sets of data, one for probability and one for possibility. Prolly want to ask for money on the possibility of snow. Better odds.
One can be very profitable and is illegal, the other may or may not be profitable and is legal presently. Maybe I see the difference more clearly, because I'm been watching and trading for a long time.
According to Yahoo the June retail sales numbers will disappoint because of the rain.
The blame in the game falls mostly on the rain!
More government jobs! Wonder why the stimulus bill is not working?
Wages are too low.
We need a new stimulus bill with "affirmative action".
Just as minorities needed special protection to make up for decades of discrimination, gov't workers need higher-than-private-industry wages to make up for the decades of below-average-wages.
by the way i think we have some of that stimulus. been noticing some used to be rough roads are now paved. including one that has the inner lanes re done.
People who work for less are really worth what they get paid.
I talked to my niece last night and she said the check cashing places are no longer accepting unemployment checks from California.
People who accept CAIOUs are really worth that they get paid.
People who work for less are really worth what they get paid.