Perhaps TALF has acquired a bad reputation, and it needs to be quietly killed to be replaced with something else. They can point to a lack of interest to prove they need to do something else.

Nemo is busy.

Perhaps TALF has acquired a bad reputation, and it needs to be quietly killed to be replaced with something else. They can point to a lack of interest to prove they need to do something else.

Perhaps they think 'the crisis' is now 'behind us' and are trying to wind things down in a non-news-making basis [outright announcing the end might result in too much heat & light on something they just want to quietly go away].

Only a guess - don't know a thing.

Is that second quote supposed to be sarcastic?

I think I'm missing something...

Words calculated to catch everyone may catch no one

Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.

I don't know which is worse; that I agree with this or that I understand this.

The part about not being able to make your own trades is IMO an interesting warning to other (non-TALF) government program participants.

"Jackson's most valuable asset is his 50% share in the Sony-ATV Music Publishing catalog, which people with knowledge of the partnership value at between $1.5 billion and $2 billion....Earlier this decade, he borrowed $300 million against the catalog. That puts the value of Jackson's share at between $150 million and $400 million."

So Sony could get a huge windfall if they are bought out of the partnership. 500-700 million dollars almost makes up for their 1 billion dollar loss in 2008.

Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.

Good one - I'll remember that. Similar theme from my world... if a supplier tells you they can do everything/anything it also means they probably do nothing well.

and you can't sell and buyback a bond you already own to create a trade. That's an interesting twist."

You mean tape painting isn't an acceptable way of creating value where there is none? And it's news to this market participant? Hoocoodanode.

"Jobless consumers will hold back recovery"

Jobless consumers will hold back recovery - Eye on the Economy- msnbc.com

If there was only some way we could get rid of them

Hey its July 6. Housing bottomed in June 30 according to Cramer. BOOYAH

The Fed is really restricting legacy eligibility:

If only we were as strict with legacy central banks.

NateTG,

We tried, and it sorta worked - massive illegal immigration.

It will work pretty well if they actually go home now.

Many market participants expected the Fed to include CMBS "originally rated AAA" because S&P has recently placed a large number of CMBS on watch for downgrade.

This coul be a Fed warning to the ratings agencies to play ball or a regulatory stimulus to do deals before downgrades.

Legal immigrants who get laid off might not be legal or immigrants for long.

"Legal immigrants who get laid off might not be legal or immigrants for long. "

When I was on an H1B I always loved part of my paycheck going to SS, Medicaid, UI and sundry other items even though I couldn't collect anything as soon as I lost my job.

Remittances to Mexico are down at least 30%. For decades we were a pressure relief valve for failed Mexican social policies. Now those disinvestments are preparing to pay disreturns. It is going to be real hard to turn economic refugees away at the southern border when so many are ready to declare them political refugees.

I say we agree to bail our our neighbors in exchange for Baja and oil.

I say we agree to bail our our neighbors in exchange for Baja...

Then we'll have to build a fence down the middle of the Sea of Cortez. Think of all the jobs that will produce!

It will be interesting to assess local economic outcomes against their immigration policies at a future date...

Then we'll have to build a fence down the middle of the Sea of Cortez. Think of all the jobs that will produce!

they can't even manage to keep trawlers and longliners out of the Sea of Cortez, let alone build a fence....That was one special place in the 60's, 70's and early 80's....

MLM (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/6/2009 - 10:05 am

Then we'll have to build a fence down the middle of the Sea of Cortez. Think of all the jobs that will produce!

Until it becomes the Straits of Cortez at least.

Seriously, Mexico is in in deep trouble and nobody is concerned. 110m people and no sustainable economy. Island of Nauru times 1,200.

The constitutional prohibition against foreign resource ownership is a big hurdle - it may take serious social unrest before direct foreign investment in the Mexican petroleum sector becomes a reality - as Cantarell continues to crater (super-giant oil field that has carried Mexican oil production that is in irreversible decline). They are trying to finesse things with service contracts, time will tell...

Also, keep your eye on how quickly the Cuban embargo lasts if there are successful results to the offshore leasing and drilling underway there:
petroleumworld

Nauru on steroids - scary imagery, RD - but unfortunately, apt.

The USA offered Mexico $25 million for California and they told us to piss off, so we went to war over much ado about nothing, and paid Mexico $18 million for much of the southwest...

Comeuppance see me sometime~

The rampant manipulation in the equity markets is getting old.

I called the Mexican powder keg before the MSM picked up on the drug wars and swine flu.

The Rubin bailout helped the banks, not Mexico.

dryfly - I think they are testy with good cause.... its getting pretty dangerous... I think lack of remittance is a major reason.... be safe! Smile

Ya I know. The border is pretty intense on both sides. The Mexican side was crawling with Federales near Reynosa... once outside the border zone [~25 miles in Mexico] it was a lot less intense. By the time we got to Monterrey there was no sign of tension. Monterrey was a very nice city - some dicey neighborhoods but really pretty nice. Reminded me of Milan or Barcelona circa 1970s... lots of industry, burgeoning middle class with a well established upper class. I'd live in Monterrey - met folks there who have made the move from the US there and never regretted it. That was NOT what I experienced in Reynosa, Matamoros or other border cities... they seemed like something from 'Outland'.

Unfortunately for Mexico - it is the situation in Reynosa's & TJ's and not in Monterrey's & Guadalajara's that is the driver.

Foreign central banks are interested in TIPS... Seems like a foolish play to me... I doubt TIPS will rise as much as they should if we get a decline of the dollar.... Anyone have any thoughts....

Long TIPS are probably ok over a long horizon. Short TIPS can be dangerous. Ask anyone who held short TIPS when Lehman collapsed. Volatile, painful trade.

energyecon,

I maintain that the only entities participating in the markets are a bunch of computers, technical trading algorithms, and a few select daytraders that attempt to frontrun the madness. A complete waste of time. But obviously nobody large is selling right now -- plus some of the large players like Calpers are no longer putting their shares up for borrow. Eventually we'll have a selling catalyst, and then things will get interesting.

But until then I see no reason to participate in these markets at all....

The recent spate of Mexican immigrants in the past 30 years was because of hyperinflation, there.

Imagine the Dollar being worth 1/800th of it previous value, 15 years later?

That's what happened to the Peso.

It was a win-win for American businesses that could hire people to work on the cheap, but now it appears to be a lose-lose.

a few select daytraders that attempt to frontrun the madness

Which is the equivalent of heads=SSO and tails=SDS.

TIPS aren't a good investment in this environment because their price is interest rate sensitive. Although commodity inflation is around the corner, there's not much near-term expectation for CPI inflation. The CPI has become sort of a joke, and it is being gamed by the govt. The falling rents also don't help the CPI go up near-term.

Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/6/2009 - 1:31 pm

"Seriously, Mexico is in in deep trouble and nobody is concerned. 110m people and no sustainable economy. Island of Nauru times 1,200."

I agree "failed state" is a real danger.

Well, there's the part where you can't do anything about it, and then there's the part where your nation parallels their arc and is itself without industry, without plan, full of ignorant peasants, likely to become a failed state, etc. So. I would worry more about things that you have some chance of influencing.

"Short sales are FB delay tactics. Don't participate. As a buyer your only outcome is buying a property worth less than you bid. Short sales are not exposed to the market. The decision is left up to the entity with a wishing price."

Agreed, short sales are for suckers who want to overpay for a property. Every situation I have seen where a short sale was rejected resulted in a lower price being accepted in REO.

Wait it out and pick the property up on 6-9 months cheaper.

Edited

Heh - yeah, I didn't really think they would be open to it, but he was clearly annoyed, so it's hitting home somewhere. This guy works for a an AGM originator (Farmer Mac), and I'm pouring over the past two quarterlies now...

I made my offer (verbal), which would be actually 'fair' (based on comps), and that's it. I don't expect to see the trustee again until we're on the courthouse steps, not before. I said I thought it was badly underwater and that there was a huge discrepancy in our appraisals at the time of the last transaction (like 40%); he said he'd try to find me a nice new neighbor. The specuvestor was an idiot and she's now thoroughly screwed (and knows it), so it's hard to stay angry at her, but this guy...I'm going to enjoy it if I get to rub his nose in it.

I've been waiting for three years, I can wait another year. They'll relist again for six months and maybe get religion or the specuvestor will force the lender's hand by walking away.

Who knew farmers could get I/O Option pay loans? The specuvestor 'fessed up to me that her balance was now larger than the original note...crazy!

Cheers!

Temecula Valley Bank back on the top 5 most likely to be heard from on Friday list:

Investor group cancels plan to aid Temecula Valley Bancorp
By Mike Freeman
Union-Tribune Staff Writer
2:00 a.m. July 3, 2009
A plan to rescue troubled Temecula Valley Bancorp has fallen through, leaving the bank with looming deadlines from regulators to raise $71 million in additional capital.
The bank, which has seven branches in San Diego County, said this week that a nonbinding letter of intent from a group of investors to inject up to $210 million into the bank had been withdrawn.
In May, Bancroft Capital LLC of Manhattan Beach and institutional investors said they would take a 95 percent stake in the ailing bank, pending due diligence.
Bancroft Capital founder Douglas McDonald said in a statement that his group worked with the bank's management to structure a workable deal. “However, given the macro-economic factors at play and the continued deterioration in market fundamentals, we regrettably could not structure a feasible solution given the challenges that presented themselves,” he said.
Bancroft did not return a phone call seeking additional comment. Because of heavy losses on its portfolio of real estate development loans, Temecula Valley Bancorp needs to raise money to return to a capital level that federal and state regulators consider solid. The bank faces a Monday deadline from the state Department of Financial Institutions to raise additional funds. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has given Temecula Valley until July 15 to boost its capital cushion under a cease-and-desist order issued in February. The bank is working with financial adviser Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in hopes of finding more money. But Chief Executive Frank Basirico acknowledged that raising the funds in the next few days is unlikely.
“Having said that, there are other banks where a deadline has passed and they're still operational,” he said.
The bank is cooperating with regulators and implementing a plan to become financially healthly, Basirico said.
“The ball is in the regulators' court,” he said. “I think we're in virgin territory on some of these things. We are making a lot of progress. . . . Time unfortunately is not on our side right now.” A call to state regulators was not returned. An FDIC spokesman said the agency does not discuss specific institutions that have entered into cease-and-desist orders. The bank's shares fell 7 cents yesterday to close at 31 cents.
Union-Tribune
In the Union-Tribune on Page E1

Does anyone use them?

Brokered deposits?

Oh, noez, someone is trying to enforce some honesty.

If it gets bad enough, it won't be an "invasion" - it will be a "humanitarian relief mission" - after which we will help them with that pesky problem of underdevelopment of their petroleum resources...

Seriously, Mexico is in in deep trouble and nobody is concerned. 110m people and no sustainable economy. Island of Nauru times 1,200.

Ok, now I've got to call you out on this one. The Island of Nauru at least has nigerian prince scams and prison camps...

But seriously, mexico has oil, gold, silver, and a close proximity to the richest nation in the world. If anything, it can offer suitable sunny plots of land and a friendly ruling regime for bankerdomes to be constructed as our landed gentry flees the cannibal apocalypse this country will become...

Rob, only rules we play by at our house. Playing somebody who hasn't played the 'real' rules is sheer joy.

Mexico racing against time at Cantarell oil field
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's state energy company Pemex is scrambling to extract what oil it can from its key Cantarell deposit as growing water and natural gas levels in the giant field depress yields of crude.

Cantarell produced more than 2 million barrels per day as recently as 2004, but yield has plunged as the aging field enters its natural decline phase, sending Mexican oil production tumbling to its lowest level since the mid-1990s.

The giant offshore Akal field and several nearby deposits that Pemex groups as Cantarell produced only 713,000 bpd in April, below Pemex's forecast of 756,000 bpd for 2009. Yields from the area have fallen at annualized rates of more than 35 percent in recent months.
Mexico racing against time at Cantarell oil field
| Reuters

Mexico Budget Gap Fuels Debt Sales, Ratings Concern (Update2)
The deficit in Mexico, while less than half the gap in neighboring U.S. as a percentage of GDP, is more of a concern because 37 percent of the budget is funded by oil, a revenue source that “is very volatile,” Galvan said.
Mexico Budget Gap Fuels Debt Sales, Ratings Concern (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Don't stop, Hoops, I think you do.

Must get back to work.

Study your Chem. . . . Ruler cracks on knuckles.

it looks like the rally monkey is back this afternoon

"You people need to play the board game Monopoly™ with the strict rules. No Free Parking pot and when a person declines to purchase on landing the property goes to bid. It is absolute evil joy to see the reactions to what happens playing the rules."

Damn, just get all the railroads by hook or by crook and you can crush all the other players like bugs. That's real monopoly.

"If it gets bad enough, it won't be an "invasion" - it will be a "humanitarian relief mission"

Just wondering,with what army? Aren't we a little overstretched at the moment? And who's going to pay for this "humanitarian relief"? The Chinese? Grabbing oil after we've shared our humanity with folks didn't work so well in Iraq.

"...and you can't sell and buyback a bond you already own to create a trade. That's an interesting twist."

Ah, I see--this is part of the Federal jobs program. Is there anything to prevent a third party from buying the heavily discounted CMBS and selling them back to the original owner with a slight markup?