This may not be the right place to ask, but: what is the advice? Buy real property, buy gold, treasuries? Flee?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Real property w/ many sources of freshwater is my call, make sure you are at least a tankful of gas away from any major city, the more hidden away, the better.
Think along the lines of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, in your planning.
Everything i've prepared for is on the lowest level need: the physiological.
I expect a dozen people, and not only are they going to need water filters (Kataydin gravity feed drip ceradyn) and on the other end, composting toilets. They'll be living in tents, so we've constructed a number of 12 sq foot decks to accommodate them. We have many years supply of food on hand (for 2 people), but that's obviously not going to be enough, but we can address that later. I've bought hundreds of books(to go with the many hundreds of books already on hand), which will serve to relieve the boredom, and as most of my family & friends are voracious readers, it's an important aspect, I think.
There is strength in numbers, and having a dozen friends and family on hand seems like a good way to go about it...
Having Gordon Brown still around would be like our having Greenspan back in running the Treasury or some other such nonsense. As if there wasnt enough evidence that he mismanaged that economy during the "good" times. Which of course, were a complete replication of nearly ever bad policy choice (both foreign and economic) that the US dictated to him and Tony the bLIAR.
And now he wants to talk his way out of it, and pretend he is some kind of leader. Please, put a sock in it.
"If we do not take the necessary action now to strengthen the world economy and put in place the conditions for sustainable world growth, I, GORDON BROWN, will be confronted with UNavoidable unemployment for years to come."
There, all fixed. Too bad about the speaking circ Gordie.
@Volker - really, you don't want a pony - they are expensive as hell to keep and a lot of work too. Go rent one.
Hmm...I was too late to the last party...I am celebrating gang: I have been waiting out my specuvestor nemesis for three years, and she has capitulated: getting ready to try for a short sale. I'm aiming for $45% off. I will have room for the ponies then...and another bunch of deer to eat.
so, for something on-topic: yes, Gordon Brown is right and yes, he is toast, which is fine - he has been a handmaiden to this mess, even if not directly responsible. I'm not well enough versed on his positions and actions WRT to England's bubble.
@josap - Ha! I do remember that being discussed, though I was small and we lived on my grandparent's cattle farm, so it was deer and cow for us, excepting one squirrel and one groundhog, mostly for the novelty of it. I will have my mountaintop lair, in the middle of 50 acres, if I pull this off. I already have all the deer I could possibly want or eat.
I camp in high winds and driving rain storms way too often (once a year or so). Carpet in the tent keeps the dirt from tracking all over. The tent floor will last much longer. And a carpet out front helps too.
It would be a fun time, except you aren't just camping anymore.
Correct Message. Wrong country to issue it. Wrong 'leader' to say it.
The G20 are preparing to whistle past the graveyard, yet again. Even if he tried, Obama couldn't sell this message, and he won't try because he knows he can't.
Until Citi, GS, JPM and BOA are rubble, we are doomed to doing what hasn't worked by doing it again.
Wouldn't old trailers or campers be better for a long term stay ? More expensive, but they'd hold up better and would at least provide running water and heat if set up properly .
A relative received a letter from BOA which said this:
The Standard rate for new and outstanding Purchase balanced will use the Variable Rate formula with a margin of 6.75 percentage points. As of May 31, 2009 the index used to calculate your variable rates was 3.25 percentage points, resulting in a variable corresponding Annual Percentage Rate of 9.99% (Daily Periodic Rate of 0.027370%).
So what is his new interest rate assuming the FFR is 2%?
And Juvie, didn't you tell me you were going to buy half of Cleveland?
Currently we have one mysterian on the property. She's pretty typical of my friends...
She backpacks around 300 miles a year, can't find a job and owes around $40k in student loans, and has never made more than $25k a year, working in the wilderness.
It is time to mention one more time that optimists buy gold and pessimists buy guns. We are past the green shoots and back to this. Read Ambrose.'s coulmn in todays London Daily Telegraph and the comments from around the UK. Everyone is figuring this out!
The Standard rate for new and outstanding Purchase balanced will use the Variable Rate formula with a margin of 6.75 percentage points. As of May 31, 2009 the index used to calculate your variable rates was 3.25 percentage points, resulting in a variable corresponding Annual Percentage Rate of 9.99% (Daily Periodic Rate of 0.027370%).
So what is his new interest rate assuming the FFR is 2%?
oh. i understand your question now. last time i gave you the effective rate. You're asking how BAC calculates the variable rate from the FFR, then adds 6.75% to get the APR. Who the hell knows?
Wouldn't old trailers or campers be better for a long term stay ? More expensive, but they'd hold up better and would at least provide running water and heat if set up properly .
Millions of gallons of perfectly good freshwater flow by our property, that's a good enough source...
Trailers and campers would make our place like Appalachia, and most of our friends are comfortable with much less than the average Joe, so they'll do just fine.
@JD & josap - I have some neighbors a little further up the holler who have a teepee they live in for a few weeks every year - it's pretty comfy really.
Comrade Elmer Fudd - too true. Gordon Speaks, bound to be worth a - wow, and there we go, that was quick - clank clank couple of ticks on the mid/long bond yields. USG 5 and 10 just tightened up on the overnight.
Mind you, couldn't have more egregiously stupid behavior than the lead-up to the last G8 Summit, like, uh, issuing a 40-year gilt and .. ppsssffftt BWHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
That didn't go very well at all. Should be a quiet week ahead then.
Wall Street, quick to spot an opportunity, is also gearing up to trade the payment promises.
“We have a whole team working on it,” said Barry Silbert, chief executive of SecondMarket, a company that trades illiquid assets such as bankruptcy claims, private company stock and toxic assets.
Mr Silbert said hedge funds, municipal bond investors and other institutions were interested. Trading volume will depend on how many IOUs the state issues and how long banks accept IOUs for deposit at face value.
Basel, also from the letter.
This index is the highest US Prime Rate as published in the "Money Rates: section of the WSJ on the last publication day of each month. The index used to calculate the variable rate described above is 3.25% and was published on May 31, 2009.
“We have a whole team working on it,” said Barry Silbert, chief executive of SecondMarket, a company that trades illiquid assets such as bankruptcy claims, private company stock and toxic assets.
Well, at least the CA IOU's will be traded by the appropriate specialists.
"finances need to be sustainable in the long term," = Well this means we need to borrow to finance our programs for some time...
Financial Times, Wall Street Gears Up to Trade California IOUs
"
You can laugh at this all you want. But I have no doubt it's a market with legs, not just in CA, either.
I'm sure NY, PA and NJ aren't far behind"
as too IOUs - some will collect and then cash in....some troubling issues
1. Some will collect a major position and demand some premium.
2. CA misses the October payment.
3. This adds to CAs debt on debt and causes a ratings decrease
4. IOUs are deposits at first and then they are not halting the credit (read debt) cycle.
given all this - corp paper is going to do well - very well indeed.
it's a great idea unless Cali pulls a Chrysler on Wall Street. Damn evil speculators trying to cash these claims bought on the cheap... When Cali offers 75 cents on the dollar, what recourse is available? You can't sue, and it looks like there's already a lenders' strike in place...
what i don't understand is why CalPERS and CalSTRS can't be paid with the IOUs. It's a ~3% guaranteed return + they'd be helping their fellow Californians. /snark
I understand it's a legal thing. question was pragmatic.
He and his buddies bought up all this scrip people thought was worthless - like 20% of face, and then turned around and "guaranteed" it at face value - the original version of privatize the profits, socialize the losses! Aaron Burr did us all a favor, though he could have gotten around to it sooner.
Gordon Brown is a piece of shit. Why is anyone bothering with whatever he said. If this unelected PM had any decency he would have resigned long ago. He doesn't. He'd rather see the whole of the British Isles sink into the Atlantic ocean than lose his power. The man is not only delusional, he is morally bankrupt.
This is just hilarious to me. California issues IOUs to people to whom it owes money. Those IOUs are traded (like notes would be). California does not have to deal with the messes associated with issuing debt formally, its credit, and obtaining bank liquiditiy facilities to back its debt (which would be impossible). But the IOUs are bought from the creditors at a discount to face value. In a sense, California has just passed on its borrowing costs to its creditors.
@Bond Girl - if that really was their intention, it's a pretty brilliant trick. A lot of vendors will have no choice in the matter either - a defacto cut in state spending, huh?
I didn't know they guaranteed it too!! Hamilton was born too early.
the northern banksters got the revolutionary war debt assumed by the new federal government. the southern colonies got the federal capital district in some swampland they owned on the virginia-maryland border.
@NorkaWest - as a Virginian, I have to say that's worked out pretty well for us. I watched the fireworks over the national mall last night from an in-fill island in some of that swampland last night (now known as Lady Bird Johnson Park)...speaking of which, the greatly reduced fireworks display was a rather tangible proof of cutbacks...
Printing up $100 Banknotes @ a cost of one thin dime sounds reasonable, but it pales in comparison to the cost of producing the $787 Billion stimulus plan.
It's hard to ascertain just how much it costs to type in 787 with a shitlode of zeroes, but i'd guess it cost the mouse clique next to nothing to conjure it out of thin air...
Ain't nothin wrong with a little graft and corruption, in'it what made America grand?-
Earl Long
Gold and guns, shucks, I just want a little relief contract or two.
It ain't the end of the world, just a little Velvet Fist of Government coming your rescue, whether you need it or not.
I can't tell you how many folks would blather at the bar in Ash Fork about black helicopters and the evil government, but then the evil government was garnishing their wages for back child support.
Gordon Brown knows the UK is screwed, and needs a rescue. He's trying to do to the rest of the world what Paulson and Bernanke and Dodd and Pelosi and Frank did to US taxpayers back in October.
why did Krugie bother inventing the word "ayatollahyaseaux" to add to hoocoodanodes? It's transparently neologizing chaff. Didn't work, sounds silly and slightly xenophobic. Net fail.
All the automakers are going down (JD)?
electronics repair, machine shop, sheet metal, forging capability and plastics fabrication. make intelligent choices warehousing exisiting spare parts?
Gordon Brown is screaming for help. Wonder if the rest of the world will step up. Very doubtful in my view. Does sovereign default by the Brits constitute systemic risk to the rest of the world? Does it matter at this point?
If I was a PHD candidate in economics I would call Craig's List and ask them for their data from the past few years. The corollaries between asset prices, unemployment, job listings and barter offerings is a wealth of information for a dissertation. The past year when I'm curious about a metropolitan area and it's economic health my first stop is to their Craig's list postings. I've noticed significant rent drops, rent incentives, barter offerings and huge amount of tools, toys and trollops for sale. Garage sale nation has arrived.
The concept of short and double short ETFs makes a lot of people nervous, even adults. For example, it makes my wife nervous, even though she's made a lot of money off the ones I bought in her IRA.
So, I've learned to explain it to her in different ways. For example I say: "Imagine a kind of insurance you can buy where you get paid off if the stock market goes down. And you don't even have to file a claim to get the insurance money. They just automatically put it in your pocket!"
On the previous thread, in response to:
""Buy and hold" is dead in an era when the SPARCStations are colo'd on the NYSE and NASDAQ floors and are making fractions of pennies on millions of transactions."
Hoopajoops LTD wrote: "This is what capitalism has become? Are we living in a science fiction novel by Kurt Vonnegut? Our market has enough processing power thrown at it to become sentient, and as its first conscious act it decides to jerk itself off at the speed of light until it dies?"
First of all LOL, that was a sharp whack to my funny bone.
Second, I know a guy who does this for a living as a free-lancer. He scalps several grand a day when he works, which is a few days a week. Basically shaving pennies off of tiny little moves in very liquid stocks.
The thing is though, all of this is just noise. Yes, traders (or electro-wankers) can scalp the trading activity, but from the POV of a longer term investor (as in more than a week holding period), who cares? It's at worst just a little bit of frictional loss which is less than the spread plus fees for other investors. And it probably balances out - my understanding is that these high frequency systems just bet on movement, not caring in which direction, over a period of seconds or minutes at most. That must help provide liquidity, if nothing else.
Package delivery giant and U.S. economic bellwether FedEx is seeing signs for a potential turnaround in the second half as production seemed to be picking up again, German magazine WirtschaftsWoche reported. Michael Ducker, in charge of FedEx's international business, told WirtschaftsWoche in an interview to be published on Monday that the downturn was easing and its ternationally transported volumes had not fallen further compared with the previous quarter.
Your friend (the free-lancer trader) is using the same strategy as the LTCC boyz. Works until it doesn't. Just once, he catches something at the top and his profits are history.
Externalized costs,I also find craigslist very useful for judging the sentiment of my local Real Estate Market.The ads last a week,and there are both a lot of FSBO and quite a few brokers who advertise there.The widening disparity between wishing prices on high end properties is revealing.That market is breaking here in the wine country.and not before time.similar midrange homes are priced as much as $200k different ($540k-$740k for a 3/2 in a good area).
"Your friend (the free-lancer trader) is using the same strategy as the LTCC boyz. Works until it doesn't. Just once, he catches something at the top and his profits are history."
Well, technically LTCM probably could have kept working except it had to keep pumping in capital to hold losing positions and it ran out of cash. Theoretically it was a good idea, but in practice any volatility quickly requires high levels of capital and time to balance out; neither was available to LTCM after the Russian default.
However, I'm sure his free-lancer friend has even shallower pockets then LTCM.
sm_landlord,
Sure it is lost in the noise when the virtual rats are in the walls sneaking crumbs but when the investment... oh sorry, no more investment banks,,, when the banks are doing it the cumulative effect is eventually noticeable in the whole economy. The secondary effect is to convince enough people that the game is rigged to the point of not being worth participating.
picosec;
"Your friend (the free-lancer trader) is using the same strategy as the LTCC boyz."
Not the way I understand it. He never stays in a position overnight, and never risks more than a few tens of thousands on a trade. It's more about just getting in and out in a very short period of time, trying to play momentum over tiny periods of time, and doing it over and over fast.
LTCC was about leveraged, long term directional bets, as I recall. But I could be wrong and don't have time to google it. Do you remember the details?
I just realized what the IBs may be up to. Say they somehow automated my friend's strategy, including the human judgment part. Then, say they hired a couple of big botnets from the spammers, and deployed their trades across millions of hijacked Windows PCs. It would require setting up lots of little accounts, but they might achieve plausible denyability....
Fuckers got the NYSE to change the way the program trading data is collected......oh and we've had two trading "irregularities" since this guy (in the above story) left and took GS's code with him.
That 15 minutes of extra trading (that no one I know got to participate in) was a direct result of this.
David Tice was on Bloomberg the other day saying the same thing I have been... that the enormous household debt guarantees us a depression. Of course, the Bloomies weren't happy to hear that.
What most households no longer have is net assets.
The toxic asset, formally known as a home, lost value.
The long term asset, 401k, lost value.
The short term asset, a job, is unsistainable in this market.
Once all your assets are toast you only have debt.
There's a reason the Chicomms aren't worried about getting stuccoed. They can turn out the lights on the exchanges any time they wish. And front run it while doing so.
I really hope.......that this "little" thingy with GS gets some wider coverage so that people understand what the hell is really going on. Most people here know what has been happening however what the overall story points out (not mentioned of course) is how much of a grip these *uckers have on everyone.
Changing the rules (ala the DPTR) and now this little "gem" about GS getting code stolen from them just puts it over the top.
if this doesn't cause a liquidity event then I don't know what will. Didn't the Fed back out about $10b last week ?(sorry I was gone and away from the 'tubes and thought I saw someone reference that)
Wow, a free more "calls" and we might make it to a revelation....
Gordon Brown = massive fail. He should just keep quiet at this point.
Gordon Brown, a one man California, for the Brits.
"...we have to, as this rolls out, put more pace on the ball."
we're fucked
I hope you got kissed
I didn't
and I got no pony
I want a pony
where's my pony?
Asia markets are all unhappy.
US futures are down.
Another day on the merry go round.
But at least I found the ponies!!!!
"The worst of the recession may be yet to come..."
Once more the British are masters of the understatement.
(pigged out from last thread)
This may not be the right place to ask, but: what is the advice? Buy real property, buy gold, treasuries? Flee?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Real property w/ many sources of freshwater is my call, make sure you are at least a tankful of gas away from any major city, the more hidden away, the better.
Think along the lines of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, in your planning.
Everything i've prepared for is on the lowest level need: the physiological.
I expect a dozen people, and not only are they going to need water filters (Kataydin gravity feed drip ceradyn) and on the other end, composting toilets. They'll be living in tents, so we've constructed a number of 12 sq foot decks to accommodate them. We have many years supply of food on hand (for 2 people), but that's obviously not going to be enough, but we can address that later. I've bought hundreds of books(to go with the many hundreds of books already on hand), which will serve to relieve the boredom, and as most of my family & friends are voracious readers, it's an important aspect, I think.
There is strength in numbers, and having a dozen friends and family on hand seems like a good way to go about it...
Ok Volker, you can have one of the merry go round ponies. I think that is the only kind of pony we are going to ever see at this point.
Having Gordon Brown still around would be like our having Greenspan back in running the Treasury or some other such nonsense. As if there wasnt enough evidence that he mismanaged that economy during the "good" times. Which of course, were a complete replication of nearly ever bad policy choice (both foreign and economic) that the US dictated to him and Tony the bLIAR.
And now he wants to talk his way out of it, and pretend he is some kind of leader. Please, put a sock in it.
where's my pony?
Have you seen Ally Bank's "pony" commercial yet? I wanted to throw up. Ally Bank (GMAC) has certainly received its pony!
Minor redraft required:
"If we do not take the necessary action now to strengthen the world economy and put in place the conditions for sustainable world growth, I, GORDON BROWN, will be confronted with UNavoidable unemployment for years to come."
There, all fixed. Too bad about the speaking circ Gordie.
C
JD
How do you stake down a tent on a deck? First good wind storm and the tents will be kites or torn up.
"Flee?"
Yes! flee! Flee I say. Hesitate at your peril!
Flee like the wind!
Flee before the others know you are here!
Another down day on the market.
CNBC was on the other day and when the commentator announced that market persistently down, my oldest kid went "good!" She knows that I'm long TWM.
Just bizarre. The whole thing is simply bizarre. Including that my kid knows that I'm short the Rus2K.
@Volker - really, you don't want a pony - they are expensive as hell to keep and a lot of work too. Go rent one.
Hmm...I was too late to the last party...I am celebrating gang: I have been waiting out my specuvestor nemesis for three years, and she has capitulated: getting ready to try for a short sale. I'm aiming for $45% off. I will have room for the ponies then...and another bunch of deer to eat.
so, for something on-topic: yes, Gordon Brown is right and yes, he is toast, which is fine - he has been a handmaiden to this mess, even if not directly responsible. I'm not well enough versed on his positions and actions WRT to England's bubble.
A fly and a flea in a flue
Were imprisioned so what could they do?
Let us fly said the flea
Let us flee said the fly.
So they flew through a flaw in the flue.
Sorry, I think my head has exploded.
josap,
Who needs stakes?
We will just drill holes and put in bigger eyelet screws to attach to the tent. Easy peasy.
This isn't camping over the weekend, it's long-term (a few years perhaps?)
Very cool CS. Once all the deer are eaten we can start on the ponies.
Remember in the early 70s stores sold horse meat because the price of beef was too high?
I'm eating toasted ciabatta bread with butter and hme made strawberry jam
you guys can sweat it out, I'm happy
This worth at least +300 points on the DOW.
Or rabbit in Flint MI? Ohm that was the 90's. Now the only thing you can get in Flint is a case of hungry.
I remember Mommie dearest coming home with HorseHelper.
@josap - Ha! I do remember that being discussed, though I was small and we lived on my grandparent's cattle farm, so it was deer and cow for us, excepting one squirrel and one groundhog, mostly for the novelty of it. I will have my mountaintop lair, in the middle of 50 acres, if I pull this off. I already have all the deer I could possibly want or eat.
JD, true. Get really good tents.
I camp in high winds and driving rain storms way too often (once a year or so). Carpet in the tent keeps the dirt from tracking all over. The tent floor will last much longer. And a carpet out front helps too.
It would be a fun time, except you aren't just camping anymore.
lets all thank Globalization that a viking has canned preserves...
Pigged, my apologies:
They've bound everything to the fate of the treasury market.( Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda)
Funding my peeps. Funding the treas. Timmay will be looking down a heap load of abandoned wells to pull up liquidity for the beltway idiots.
Correct Message. Wrong country to issue it. Wrong 'leader' to say it.
The G20 are preparing to whistle past the graveyard, yet again. Even if he tried, Obama couldn't sell this message, and he won't try because he knows he can't.
Until Citi, GS, JPM and BOA are rubble, we are doomed to doing what hasn't worked by doing it again.
Did that large angry woman make the jam?
no.
whatever she makes we say, 'Try and eat it.'
No wonder she's angry. What home made it?
volker home
Sigh. Ok, who in your home made it?
Obama is selling the Wolf's message
"Im on the muthafucka, I got my boy Biden in route"
"Why didnt you say so Negro, Its all good"
JD,
Wouldn't old trailers or campers be better for a long term stay ? More expensive, but they'd hold up better and would at least provide running water and heat if set up properly .
Hey, CR community, help me out here.
A relative received a letter from BOA which said this:
The Standard rate for new and outstanding Purchase balanced will use the Variable Rate formula with a margin of 6.75 percentage points. As of May 31, 2009 the index used to calculate your variable rates was 3.25 percentage points, resulting in a variable corresponding Annual Percentage Rate of 9.99% (Daily Periodic Rate of 0.027370%).
So what is his new interest rate assuming the FFR is 2%?
And Juvie, didn't you tell me you were going to buy half of Cleveland?
volker make everything, only Nazi makes volker
homedad's kid hates America
banky - you owe me a keyboard, my man.
HomeGnome - you on autopost? What gives?
C
josap,
Currently we have one mysterian on the property. She's pretty typical of my friends...
She backpacks around 300 miles a year, can't find a job and owes around $40k in student loans, and has never made more than $25k a year, working in the wilderness.
Basel, you, sir, owe me one keyboard.
C- just trying to give a relative some advice.
Don't want my bro swimming naked, believe me.
Fraudian slip?
Layoffs Stall Economic Recovery | wltx.com
Layoffs Undermine Consumers' Ability to Undermine Economy.
It is time to mention one more time that optimists buy gold and pessimists buy guns. We are past the green shoots and back to this. Read Ambrose.'s coulmn in todays London Daily Telegraph and the comments from around the UK. Everyone is figuring this out!
The Standard rate for new and outstanding Purchase balanced will use the Variable Rate formula with a margin of 6.75 percentage points. As of May 31, 2009 the index used to calculate your variable rates was 3.25 percentage points, resulting in a variable corresponding Annual Percentage Rate of 9.99% (Daily Periodic Rate of 0.027370%).
So what is his new interest rate assuming the FFR is 2%?
oh. i understand your question now. last time i gave you the effective rate. You're asking how BAC calculates the variable rate from the FFR, then adds 6.75% to get the APR. Who the hell knows?
It is definitely wrong to tell kids about double short ETFs.
Try to be more discreet.
sporkfed asked:
Wouldn't old trailers or campers be better for a long term stay ? More expensive, but they'd hold up better and would at least provide running water and heat if set up properly .
Millions of gallons of perfectly good freshwater flow by our property, that's a good enough source...
Trailers and campers would make our place like Appalachia, and most of our friends are comfortable with much less than the average Joe, so they'll do just fine.
@JD & josap - I have some neighbors a little further up the holler who have a teepee they live in for a few weeks every year - it's pretty comfy really.
this gem from the cranberries only has 11 million views
Yu heard it here first
Vikram Pandit</>
Financial Times, Wall Street Gears Up to Trade California IOUs
Wall Street gears up to trade California IOUs
Brown = NWO wanker. If he wants things to improve for humanity he should off himself.
Gordon Brown must have seen some secret report that was very scary. And he couldn't keep it a secret.
JD there will be a million of people with a billion of loan debt and no job. I hope they have friends as good as you are.
Even though most of them have parents they can go home to, they will be in a world of hurt too.
Comrade Elmer Fudd - too true. Gordon Speaks, bound to be worth a - wow, and there we go, that was quick - clank clank couple of ticks on the mid/long bond yields. USG 5 and 10 just tightened up on the overnight.
Mind you, couldn't have more egregiously stupid behavior than the lead-up to the last G8 Summit, like, uh, issuing a 40-year gilt and .. ppsssffftt BWHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
That didn't go very well at all. Should be a quiet week ahead then.
Oh wait...
C
You can laugh at this all you want. But I have no doubt it's a market with legs, not just in CA, either.
I'm sure NY, PA and NJ aren't far behind.
What fun, bond girl.
Is this what will break B of A?
Wall Street, quick to spot an opportunity, is also gearing up to trade the payment promises.
“We have a whole team working on it,” said Barry Silbert, chief executive of SecondMarket, a company that trades illiquid assets such as bankruptcy claims, private company stock and toxic assets.
Mr Silbert said hedge funds, municipal bond investors and other institutions were interested. Trading volume will depend on how many IOUs the state issues and how long banks accept IOUs for deposit at face value.
Basel, also from the letter.
This index is the highest US Prime Rate as published in the "Money Rates: section of the WSJ on the last publication day of each month. The index used to calculate the variable rate described above is 3.25% and was published on May 31, 2009.
“We have a whole team working on it,” said Barry Silbert, chief executive of SecondMarket, a company that trades illiquid assets such as bankruptcy claims, private company stock and toxic assets.
Well, at least the CA IOU's will be traded by the appropriate specialists.
I don't know where you learned economic history, but you have got it wrong.
Optimists buy stocks and bonds. Pessimists buy gold. The people who buy guns are trying to get the gold from the pessimists.
I swear Im not GEIGH
What they did was circumvent the muni market. They issued debt without issuing debt. Fricking brilliant.
josap,
You can't take it with you, and as I said, there's safety in numbers.
What happens to those whose whole preparation was buying guns and ammo, when they go to sleep?
Who protects them during REM?
I did a post on Second Market not too long ago. They also make a market for auction rate securities.
I'm so glad I don't pay taxes anymore to support this idiotic gambling
edited
So in October, they just roll it over?
Works until nobody will accept them.
Their kids who know about double short ETFs??
the prime rate is typically FFR + 3.
"finances need to be sustainable in the long term," = Well this means we need to borrow to finance our programs for some time...
Financial Times, Wall Street Gears Up to Trade California IOUs
"
You can laugh at this all you want. But I have no doubt it's a market with legs, not just in CA, either.
I'm sure NY, PA and NJ aren't far behind"
as too IOUs - some will collect and then cash in....some troubling issues
1. Some will collect a major position and demand some premium.
2. CA misses the October payment.
3. This adds to CAs debt on debt and causes a ratings decrease
4. IOUs are deposits at first and then they are not halting the credit (read debt) cycle.
given all this - corp paper is going to do well - very well indeed.
I wonder if they got the idea here.
The people who buy guns are trying to get the gold from the pessimists. rich
one of the few green shoots lately, however lamentable
October is sooo far in the future. It will never come.
rich - most folks have no idea of the sh*t we are in so why worry....
I just want to caution you all about one thing in this Gordon Brownesque climate of fear.
Do not sell your gold or silver based on fear.
Do not sell your commodities, especially food, oil or metals, in this climate of fear.
Do not give in to the fear mongers.
The fear mongers have big stashes of gold, silver and commodities. And they want to get more cheap.
Some people did this with Continentals, a long time ago.
Discussed many moons ago.
They issued debt without issuing debt. Fricking brilliant.
That is a really useful way to look at it...thanks!
continentals, yezzzz. . .
it's a great idea unless Cali pulls a Chrysler on Wall Street. Damn evil speculators trying to cash these claims bought on the cheap... When Cali offers 75 cents on the dollar, what recourse is available? You can't sue, and it looks like there's already a lenders' strike in place...
@Liz - Ha! Yes, Alexander Hamilton really was the evil genius behind our current system.
Was it Hamilton who did that? I didn't remember.
cali will pay, this is normal politics in ye golden state
It is until it isn't Elmer.
This time the whole country is in a mess too.
It's been fun, nitey-nite.
what i don't understand is why CalPERS and CalSTRS can't be paid with the IOUs. It's a ~3% guaranteed return + they'd be helping their fellow Californians. /snark
I understand it's a legal thing. question was pragmatic.
H8 my music
timmay will welch before cali
He and his buddies bought up all this scrip people thought was worthless - like 20% of face, and then turned around and "guaranteed" it at face value - the original version of privatize the profits, socialize the losses! Aaron Burr did us all a favor, though he could have gotten around to it sooner.
Great idea, Basel.
And I dunno it'd be like the treasury securities (or whatever) that our Social
Security money is "invested" in.
Gordon Brown is a piece of shit. Why is anyone bothering with whatever he said. If this unelected PM had any decency he would have resigned long ago. He doesn't. He'd rather see the whole of the British Isles sink into the Atlantic ocean than lose his power. The man is not only delusional, he is morally bankrupt.
Tea anyone?
This is just hilarious to me. California issues IOUs to people to whom it owes money. Those IOUs are traded (like notes would be). California does not have to deal with the messes associated with issuing debt formally, its credit, and obtaining bank liquiditiy facilities to back its debt (which would be impossible). But the IOUs are bought from the creditors at a discount to face value. In a sense, California has just passed on its borrowing costs to its creditors.
Elmer, I think you mean...the taxpayers of cali will pay.
Specifically, rich people and corporations.
Don't you really mean...cali will be the first state to go socialist? The first to establish diplomatic relations with Cuba and Venezuela?
Current cost to produce a $100.00 banknote = 10 Cents
1/1000th of face value
The fledgling U.S. Government redeemed Continental Currency @ 1/1000 of face value, 220 years ago or so...
I didn't know they guaranteed it too!! Hamilton was born too early.
And now, nitey nite for real.
Dont tax you, dont tax me, tax that fellow behind the tree... - Wilbur Mills, Famous Democrat, stripper chaser and basin bather....
@Bond Girl - if that really was their intention, it's a pretty brilliant trick. A lot of vendors will have no choice in the matter either - a defacto cut in state spending, huh?
it's the normal Sacto kabuki as the dueling parties reconcile their political chits, knickers in a twist is the normal fubar
The people with gold also have guns. They are NOT stupid.
Not their intention. But I'm sure they will see it for what it is going forward...
I didn't know they guaranteed it too!! Hamilton was born too early.
the northern banksters got the revolutionary war debt assumed by the new federal government. the southern colonies got the federal capital district in some swampland they owned on the virginia-maryland border.
Cash ain't king, it's the court jester.
Basel:
No, she loves America. She hates Citi/GS courtesy of me.
Rich:
Why be discrete about Double Short ETFs? It's not like I'm buying French Ticklers and leaving 'em on the kitchen counter.
@NorkaWest - as a Virginian, I have to say that's worked out pretty well for us. I watched the fireworks over the national mall last night from an in-fill island in some of that swampland last night (now known as Lady Bird Johnson Park)...speaking of which, the greatly reduced fireworks display was a rather tangible proof of cutbacks...
More anecdotal proof of economic status.
Will take group of teens to a national youth gathering for our church. Last went six years and there were approx 25K teens in attendance.
Projected for this year: about 12K.
Uh oh. A politician said "now." Here, just take it all now. No reason to steal it in small increments.
the greatly reduced fireworks display was a rather tangible proof of cutbacks... Comrade Scott
the only tangible proof, so far
FWIW, I found out the last month that the kid who won the local HS stock portfolio contest did so by concentrating on shorting the market.
LOL.
Printing up $100 Banknotes @ a cost of one thin dime sounds reasonable, but it pales in comparison to the cost of producing the $787 Billion stimulus plan.
It's hard to ascertain just how much it costs to type in 787 with a shitlode of zeroes, but i'd guess it cost the mouse clique next to nothing to conjure it out of thin air...
G'night folks.
Barley, thanks for the comment on corporate bonds...starting point for examination.
Smart kid.
Will there be a Wall Steet left when he grows up?
Might call it a night. Euro sliding, GBP and SEK too. Nikki off, HK and Singapore finally awake and reading the memo.
Yen Advances Versus Euro on Concern Global Recovery Will Falter - Bloomberg.com
US and Yerp futures just about all elmo.
It looks so simple. Hey, herd, BOO! Aw, that's all right, go curl up with a nice warm long bond or two...
C
Ain't nothin wrong with a little graft and corruption, in'it what made America grand?-
Earl Long
Gold and guns, shucks, I just want a little relief contract or two.
It ain't the end of the world, just a little Velvet Fist of Government coming your rescue, whether you need it or not.
I can't tell you how many folks would blather at the bar in Ash Fork about black helicopters and the evil government, but then the evil government was garnishing their wages for back child support.
Someday this war's gonna end...
the kid who won the local HS stock portfolio contest did so by concentrating on shorting the market homedad43
worked during the countertrend rally?
homedad43 - double short ETF on youth church gatherings?
C
If I was younger and was looking for something to invest in, it would be replacement parts for the most common automobiles...
All the automakers are going down, every last one of them.
I think instead of macroeconomics/microeconomics, high school should teach buying/shorting/options/technical analysis. Way more useful.
JD, people are going to drive and old cars die.
Some can't be fixed, some crash, fleets are replaced.
Juvenal Delinquent,
Is she easy?
//She's pretty typical of my friends//
Gordon Brown knows the UK is screwed, and needs a rescue. He's trying to do to the rest of the world what Paulson and Bernanke and Dodd and Pelosi and Frank did to US taxpayers back in October.
Promise, last half-thought of the night:
why did Krugie bother inventing the word "ayatollahyaseaux" to add to hoocoodanodes? It's transparently neologizing chaff. Didn't work, sounds silly and slightly xenophobic. Net fail.
nytol
C
The last time spare parts were unavailable for cars on the homefront was during WW2.
You could have got a small fortune for an alternator or starter...
China is making their currancy move sooner than I thought they would.
Shanghai Companies Sign First Yuan Settlement Deals (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
All the automakers are going down (JD)?
electronics repair, machine shop, sheet metal, forging capability and plastics fabrication. make intelligent choices warehousing exisiting spare parts?
Kids need to believe in something long.
If they start shorting too early, it can lead to dependency on prescription drugs.
"make intelligent choices warehousing exisiting spare parts?"
Bingo was his name-o...
Gordon Brown is screaming for help. Wonder if the rest of the world will step up. Very doubtful in my view. Does sovereign default by the Brits constitute systemic risk to the rest of the world? Does it matter at this point?
If I was a PHD candidate in economics I would call Craig's List and ask them for their data from the past few years. The corollaries between asset prices, unemployment, job listings and barter offerings is a wealth of information for a dissertation. The past year when I'm curious about a metropolitan area and it's economic health my first stop is to their Craig's list postings. I've noticed significant rent drops, rent incentives, barter offerings and huge amount of tools, toys and trollops for sale. Garage sale nation has arrived.
No and No.. Their time had run out!
//Does sovereign default by the Brits constitute systemic risk to the rest of the world? Does it matter at this point?//
Iceland 2008
England 2009
Kinda like really really big BFFs.
The concept of short and double short ETFs makes a lot of people nervous, even adults. For example, it makes my wife nervous, even though she's made a lot of money off the ones I bought in her IRA.
So, I've learned to explain it to her in different ways. For example I say: "Imagine a kind of insurance you can buy where you get paid off if the stock market goes down. And you don't even have to file a claim to get the insurance money. They just automatically put it in your pocket!"
On the previous thread, in response to:
""Buy and hold" is dead in an era when the SPARCStations are colo'd on the NYSE and NASDAQ floors and are making fractions of pennies on millions of transactions."
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
"This is what capitalism has become? Are we living in a science fiction novel by Kurt Vonnegut? Our market has enough processing power thrown at it to become sentient, and as its first conscious act it decides to jerk itself off at the speed of light until it dies?"
First of all LOL, that was a sharp whack to my funny bone.
Second, I know a guy who does this for a living as a free-lancer. He scalps several grand a day when he works, which is a few days a week. Basically shaving pennies off of tiny little moves in very liquid stocks.
The thing is though, all of this is just noise. Yes, traders (or electro-wankers) can scalp the trading activity, but from the POV of a longer term investor (as in more than a week holding period), who cares? It's at worst just a little bit of frictional loss which is less than the spread plus fees for other investors. And it probably balances out - my understanding is that these high frequency systems just bet on movement, not caring in which direction, over a period of seconds or minutes at most. That must help provide liquidity, if nothing else.
Reading entrails?
FedEx Sees Signs of a Turnaround: Report
FedEx Sees Signs of a Turnaround: Report - Earnings * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
By: Reuters | 05 Jul 2009 | 05:16 PM ET
Package delivery giant and U.S. economic bellwether FedEx is seeing signs for a potential turnaround in the second half as production seemed to be picking up again, German magazine WirtschaftsWoche reported. Michael Ducker, in charge of FedEx's international business, told WirtschaftsWoche in an interview to be published on Monday that the downturn was easing and its ternationally transported volumes had not fallen further compared with the previous quarter.
sm-landlord
Your friend (the free-lancer trader) is using the same strategy as the LTCC boyz. Works until it doesn't. Just once, he catches something at the top and his profits are history.
My thinking is the increase is due to the common sense result of UPS pulling out of the US. The business had to go someplace.
Externalized costs,I also find craigslist very useful for judging the sentiment of my local Real Estate Market.The ads last a week,and there are both a lot of FSBO and quite a few brokers who advertise there.The widening disparity between wishing prices on high end properties is revealing.That market is breaking here in the wine country.and not before time.similar midrange homes are priced as much as $200k different ($540k-$740k for a 3/2 in a good area).
"Your friend (the free-lancer trader) is using the same strategy as the LTCC boyz. Works until it doesn't. Just once, he catches something at the top and his profits are history."
Well, technically LTCM probably could have kept working except it had to keep pumping in capital to hold losing positions and it ran out of cash. Theoretically it was a good idea, but in practice any volatility quickly requires high levels of capital and time to balance out; neither was available to LTCM after the Russian default.
However, I'm sure his free-lancer friend has even shallower pockets then LTCM.
sm_landlord,
Sure it is lost in the noise when the virtual rats are in the walls sneaking crumbs but when the investment... oh sorry, no more investment banks,,, when the banks are doing it the cumulative effect is eventually noticeable in the whole economy. The secondary effect is to convince enough people that the game is rigged to the point of not being worth participating.
picosec;
"Your friend (the free-lancer trader) is using the same strategy as the LTCC boyz."
Not the way I understand it. He never stays in a position overnight, and never risks more than a few tens of thousands on a trade. It's more about just getting in and out in a very short period of time, trying to play momentum over tiny periods of time, and doing it over and over fast.
LTCC was about leveraged, long term directional bets, as I recall. But I could be wrong and don't have time to google it. Do you remember the details?
Rob,
I just realized what the IBs may be up to. Say they somehow automated my friend's strategy, including the human judgment part. Then, say they hired a couple of big botnets from the spammers, and deployed their trades across millions of hijacked Windows PCs. It would require setting up lots of little accounts, but they might achieve plausible denyability....
Hmmm.
/tinfoil
Goldman gets Hacked
Reuters.com
Fuckers got the NYSE to change the way the program trading data is collected......oh and we've had two trading "irregularities" since this guy (in the above story) left and took GS's code with him.
That 15 minutes of extra trading (that no one I know got to participate in) was a direct result of this.
Burn in Hell GS......
Ciao
MS
sm,
Did you see the latest posts at Zerohedge on the possibly stolen GS high-frequency trading software?
Yeah, MS is referencing the same story.
BTW,
David Tice was on Bloomberg the other day saying the same thing I have been... that the enormous household debt guarantees us a depression. Of course, the Bloomies weren't happy to hear that.
GS is now so big they can't fail. they just have the system rigged any way they want it.
And they are big enough that they don't care who knows it.
Yes, I did. That inspired my tinfoil speculation, in fact.
What most households no longer have is net assets.
The toxic asset, formally known as a home, lost value.
The long term asset, 401k, lost value.
The short term asset, a job, is unsistainable in this market.
Once all your assets are toast you only have debt.
josap,
"Once all your assets are toast you only have debt."
What if you no debt? Do you vanish in a burst of flames?
LOL.
You move to Costa Rica and live on the beach.
sm,
Obviously the "average" American is toast, but no one here will accuse you of being average.
There's a reason the Chicomms aren't worried about getting stuccoed. They can turn out the lights on the exchanges any time they wish. And front run it while doing so.
nikkei digging a little trench. fuchas got elmo painted all over the place. No one seein' green shoots tonight.
I really hope.......that this "little" thingy with GS gets some wider coverage so that people understand what the hell is really going on. Most people here know what has been happening however what the overall story points out (not mentioned of course) is how much of a grip these *uckers have on everyone.
Changing the rules (ala the DPTR) and now this little "gem" about GS getting code stolen from them just puts it over the top.
if this doesn't cause a liquidity event then I don't know what will. Didn't the Fed back out about $10b last week ?(sorry I was gone and away from the 'tubes and thought I saw someone reference that)
Ciao
MS
Time for me to turn off the lights.
Nite everyone,
OK josap, I have no debt. How much in (a) cash and how much in (b) income do you think I'd need to live comfortably in Costa Rica?
Thanks, (I think)
Brown "sounding" an economic "wake-up call" is rather like his banal predecessor "warning" us about the "dangers" of Saddam Hussein.
Neoliberal lickspittles, both.
Since the GD, every economics theory has stated that government should take over when TSHTF.
The problem is that no one analyzed whether the government had the know-how to do this job or only aggravated the situation.