Makes sense to me. Why hire new, cost to train etc, when you have someone willing to work more hours and already knows the job. Plus there is very llittle increase in employee costs.
In addition, I think you would really piss off your current part time people.
Let us not forget the millions of shadow workers that were not on the books although their labor showed up as productivity gains.
June 30, 2009
For five years, immigrant day laborer Leo Chamale wired money twice a month from New Jersey to his family in Guatemala. Recently, he stepped up to the money transfer window for a different purpose - to ask that his family send some of his savings back to him.
"I hadn't worked for five months, and I was two months behind on rent, so I had them send $1,500," the 21-year-old Chamale said in Spanish. "My mother said, `That's a lot of money!'"
Progression to 'recovery': add temp workers, then part-time to full time, full-time to overtime, then maybe, add workers. Managers really don't like adding employees until they must - benefits (if any), social-security (employer part), workman's compensation premiums, hassle of hiring for manager (justification, interviews, choosing without discrimination that can be detected).
MrM- "There are only two major players in the commercial wide-body aircraft, and it is hard to imagine either one of them will lose all of its clients and future orders because of problems with one model."
MrM, here's a little history for you.
In 1938, there were three serious manufacturers of land-based commercial aircraft in the US: Boeing, Douglas and Lockheed.
In early '38, Lockheed introduced the Super Electra, a scale-up of the Model 10 (the model Amelia Earhart purchased in '36).
Anyway, the Super Electra, like the Model 10, had the famous twin tail design for which Lockheed was known. It developed that the tail had flutter problems. In rough weather, it would literally rip off the airplane, often with little or no warning. This happened twice to Northwest Airlines, whose entire fleet was the Electra series.
After investigation, it turned out that the instrument Lockheed had been using to measure resonant vibrations was OUT OF CALIBRATION, hence leading to a faulty design.
Even though Lockheed remedied the problem, Northwest sold ALL of their Super Electras because passengers wouldn't fly in them. Northwest bought the Douglas.
This damned near killed Lockheed. If it hadn't been for World War II, Lockheed could very well have ceased to exist. There was ENORMOUS reputational damage.
Maybe I'm searching for data to fit the thesis, but when the 90-91 recession ended part-time employment leveled off but unemployment continued up for ~14 months.
mp - thanks, I left a response on the previous thread
There few things more valuable than a good story of what actually happened.
That said Do you really believe that airlines will go to Airbus-only fleets? That would give Airbus too much pricing power and airlines would be very afraid of that.
Plus political pressure on US airlines ...
I'm wondering how many ways we can wordsmith and spin "Public works labor forces"?
It's merely a matter of time.
As I wrote before the pig appeared on the last post:
PatientRenter, I speak as a former Illinoisian very active in Obama's district back when he was a state senator and quite assessible for evaluating how he ticks.
Dont hold ur breath. He and his economic advisors would need to make the equivalent of a change of religious belief before they see: 1) a financially sustainable US economy as not driven by excessive credit, 2) banking & bank CEOs as not Brahmins as Geithner preaches to them, 3) globalization as not the solution, and 4) intellectual 'black boxes' as not reliable sources of fixes but simply mental placebos that allow folks to sleep well at night under the premise that 'someone real smart ' will invent a solution tomorow.
manana manana.
Despite all of Reagan's charisma, had the economy not turned around in 1982-1984, voters would have kicked him to the curb as they did his 3 predeccessors in quick succession. This in contrast to the 25-year secular bull market and 25 years of rising and multiple overlapping economic bubbles (1982-2007) that allowed every sitting president to get re-elected, save one hapless soul, GB1st.
Tim2012 and CR , I delved deeper into how Toyota plans to survive selling only 6.9 million vehicles globally annually, while struggling with the global capaity to sell 10 million; and the use & role of of permanent PT workers became clear as a part of their strategy.
If I read that chart with a fine-toothed comb, I think it's quite clear that in most recessions the "part-time for economic reasons" stabilizes and/or peaks a few months before the unemployment rate peaks. It's not a "year-ahead" leading indicator, but a few months ahead.
Looking specifically at the recessions shown on the large version of CR's chart:
In 1960 the part-time curve (blue) clearly peaks before the unemployment rate (red).
In 1970 the curves peak at essentially the same time (within the resolution of the chart); both remain elevated during the "jobless recovery" and general malaise of the period leading up to the next recession.
In 1975 the part-time curve (blue) clearly peaks before the unemployment rate (red).
In 1980 the part-time curve (blue) clearly peaks before the unemployment rate (red).
In 1982 the part-time curve (blue) clearly peaks before the unemployment rate (red).
In 1991 the part-time curve (blue) clearly peaked and stabilized before the unemployment rate (red).
In 2001 the part-time curve (blue) clearly peaked and stabilized before the unemployment rate (red), but then we had the "jobless recovery", with both curves remaining at persistently high levels while the economy kicked over into credit-bubble mode.
By my inspection of the chart, this is a signal that has been accurate in 6 of the previous 7 recessions. Ritholtz believes quite firmly in this, and I'm inclined to agree with him.
Perhaps the line should be "I need to work my existing workers more. [And then, about 3 months later.] Hey, things are looking up, and I need some new people too!"
Of course, this recession could be different from the other postwar recessions, and more like the Great Depression, since the economic causes are more congruent with the GD.
2001 may not be an outlier, rather it may be the precursor to a new trend.
The 1980 trendline and all its predecessors represented an economy where manufacturing was a larger percentage of the headcount of workers and the dollar-value of the economy.
The post 1973-82 transformation of the economy into a service economy gives us only two trendlines that not surprisingly contradict each other.
Anectdotally, here in NC and any parts of the Old South, where gun and ammo sales have been off the chart since October, many guns-n-ammo firms, retail and mfg, still say they dont plan to hire...they're simply extending hours for their workers. They've been consistent in their tactics for months.
"Don't forget that PT workers get much less in benefits, such as health care and pension
Here is a cost saving opportunity!"
In my area, plenty of companies run on <30-hour-a-week workers,and always have done. Lets them offer benefits without paying them, except to the few full-timers they're actually wanting to keep long-term.
College town. Lots of skilled cannon fodder that's willing to be taken advantage of for the chance to slack out a little longer before joining real life.
agreed that Boeing is venturing into unknown territory with dreamliner, esp. regarding composites in the wing structure. They'd have been better off funding continuous process Ti smelting research to achieve weight savings and better strength at a cheaper cost.
But that's just me.
Only way U6 turns around is boomers leaving the workforce through retirement.
mrM, it is already happening. Just look at the labor force participation rates for workers over 65. Going up up up...
The more interesting thing to note is that while jobs have been shed like mad, more of these folks and others 55 plus have been finding work. It used to be that older workers were having a rough time, but now, there seems to be an inclination toward hiring them. I have to dig into the numbers more on this and see what is up.
GDD900, yes there's been news on older workers' success at getting hired at the mall and at big box retailers.
But I question aging boomers' abilities to hang on to high-paying top mgmt/mid-mgmt jobs once they're past retirememt age. They "are expensive" in the eyes of employers. Their boomer-age peers who are their bosses seem quick to jettison them with no sense of cohort loyalty.
As the economy continues its slow recovery, the biggest areas of job growth will be in the South and in the retail sector, the head of Careerbuilder told CNBC. The pace of job losses is slowing, said Careerbuilder CEO Matt Ferguson, adding that other sectors that will see the most growth are health care, insurance, and for-profit education companies.
traderWalt, good point.
Im trying to purge these 2 phrases myself: "Jobless Recovery" and "'L'-shaped Recovery".
I'll add urs to the list. It raises awareness that not all PT-ers are teens just working for i-pod money, but rather also many adults who need benefits.
I think that CareerBuilder CEO has an incentive for cheer-lie-ading blather about job growth.
And for-profit education firms? what are they...1/10th of 1/10th of 1/10th of one-percent of the labor force? Easy to grow when u can only go up. And thats hardly a given due to their horrid track record in the courts with abuse of federal student aid.
Boomers increase health insurance cost for a company, The cost is figured on the ages, sex of all employees. The higher the percentage of over 40yr olds, the higher the cost to the firm. And as reg employees all pay the same portion of total, younger people pay a higher percentage.
The top brass get extra perk of fully paid insureance most of the time, so they don't care. The average worker pays for the top peoples insurances as well, in full.
Some small firms will give a set amount to an employee to offset health insurance. Same amount if you are 25 or 55. But the individuals cost are very different.
GDD9000, does that extend beyond what Avl Dao was talking about with low level retail jobs? Everything I've seen suggests that regaining employment at anywhere near where these workers used to be is impossible. One part of this is their higher healthcare costs. Two others, are fear of age discrimination claims if employers later want to fire them, and bosses afraid of too much experience/knowledge encroaching on their unquestioned authority. I'd be very curious to see if you have some data suggesting otherwise though.
@Avl Dao - I concur. The future economy will be structurally different from the post-1980 economy, which in turn was structurally different from the pre-1970 economy. It may not be easy to spot the peak in any case -- the part-time series is noisier than the (more heavily "managed"?) main unemployment series.
I'm hoping that the guns 'n' ammo sales won't turn into riots 'n' bloodshed!!
As has been discussed here several times, if employment doesn't rebound, then the de facto shortened workweek could be enshrined as a national 4-day workweek (32 hours, maybe 30 hours with shorter Thursdays), or a 5-day 6-hour workweek. This would work "well enough" for offices that don't run 24/7 or 12/6. For manufacturing plants running 24/7, production workers could have 3 1/2 days/week of work and then 3 1/2 days off.
However, one problem I see now (and will see in spades if the trend continues) is that highly skilled / expert workers may have trouble achieving excellence if the hours are reduced too much. While one might not want to be treated by a doctor who has been burned out by a decade of 100-hour workweeks, one probably also does not want to be treated by a doctor who only works 30 hours/week! Similar problems apply in other fields (especially research, science, biotech, engineering...) where true expertise is required and where such expertise cannot be developed and sustained without a substantial and ongoing dedication of large chunks of time. The same is also true for fields where the "mythical man-month" problem applies: in many cases two workers time-sharing a job at 3 1/2 days/week are less productive than one dedicated worker doing 5-6 days/week. (An example might be real estate agents...)
sanityclause - that is what i want to dig into...what type of jobs they are talking. It could largely be walmart greeters, etc. From what im see out in them there "real world", that is what it is. Ive noticed an awful lot of retail cashier types, bookstores, etc, that look decidedly over the standard retirement age. But anecdotes arent enough for me.
Its not hard to create the so called jobless recovery (which I really enjoyed earlier seeing a commenter refer to as absurd as the "famine Buffet")
Just take each sector, look at the total job in it, put in reasonable growth based on what we know about structural problems. Construction, decimated levels and very weak if any growth when it does come. Manufacturing. LOL. Government? Uh, how we gonna pay for that? Education? Meh.... Only thing we'll get is health care, and that will be weaker than last time.
Remember, last time around, we had construction and retail bubbles and job growth STILL stunk out loud for two years. This time, glod help us.
Once you let The Man know you are willing to work part time without benefits, you will never be offered a full time job again unless you are either a truly extraordinary individual, or the labor market becomes signficantly constrained.
For most middle class or working class jobs, I suspect the labor market will never be constrained again in our lifetimes. Unless there is a major population adjustment.
one probably also does not want to be treated by a doctor who only works 30 hours/week! Similar problems apply in other fields (especially research, science, biotech, engineering...) where true expertise is required
All bound into silicon.
An alien intelligence for medicine will do a better job of diagnosis than any doctor can.
A shortened work-week is because of increased efficiency & production, not lack of knowledge or demand.
You can argue about mythical-man-month cases but they exist at 40-hours per week already.
That's a function of knowledge domain size and integration, i.e. definition of profession and training.
The real driver will be social equality, not efficiency.
Under The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (P.L. 105-34), the [Work Opportunity Tax Credit] utilizes a two-tier tax credit format. Employers can claim 25% of the qualified first-year wages up to $6,000 for employees working, at least 120 hours but less than 400. For employees working a least 400 hours or more, the credit is calculated at the rate of 40% of the qualified first-year wages up to $6,000. This allows a maximum credit of $2,400. The Long Term Family Assistance recipient is calculated at 40% of the qualified first year wages up to $10,000 and 50% of qualified second year wages, maximum savings $9,000. For the Summer Youth target group, the credit is calculated at a rate of 25% of the qualified first-year wages up to $3,000. The disabled veteran only, the maximum qualifying wages are up to $12,000.
Qualifying groups.
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ol>
Title IV-A Recipient
Veteran
Ex-Felon
Designated Community Resident – is an individual who attained age 18 but not yet 40 on the hiring date and his/her principal place of abode (residing) within an Enterprise Zone, Empowerment Community or a Rural Renewal County.
Vocational Rehabilitation Recipient - a person with a disability who has received or is receiving vocational rehabilitation from a rehabilitation agency approved by the state or the Department of Veterans Affairs. (Drug/alcohol rehab does not qualify.) Also including a Ticket to Work holder who has an Individual Work Plan with an employment network agency.
Summer Youth - a person a least age 16 but not 18 on the hiring date and who has a principal residence in an Empowerment Community or Enterprise Zone.
Food Stamp Recipient - a person who is at least 18 but under age 40, AND is a member of a family that has received food stamps for the last 6 months; OR received food stamps for at least 3 of the last 5 months, AND is no longer eligible to receive them.
SSI Recipient - a person receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for any month during the 60 days preceding the date of hire.
Long-term Family Assistance Recipients
Disconnected youths. Any individual who is certified by the designated local agency as being between the ages of 16 and 25 on the hiring date; as not having been regularly employed or having regularly attended any secondary, technical, or post-secondary school during the six-month period preceding the hiring date; and as not readily employable by reason of lacking a sufficient number of basic skills. The guidance provides that an individual was not regularly employed if, during each consecutive three-month period within the six months preceding the hiring date, the individual earned less than an amount equal to the gross amount the individual would have earned working at the minimum wage for 30 hours every week during the three-month period.
computers are developing an alien intelligence that is radically different from human intelligence and incomparably more powerful in its focused areas. As alien intelligence feeds on itself and grows like a chain reaction, linked across the planet on a ubiquitous Internet, it will change virtually every aspect of our lives: business, investing, science, health care, entertainment, and more.
From NY Times Riots Erupt in Western China Amid Ethnic Tension BEIJING — At least 1,000 rioters clashed with the police on Sunday in a regional capital in western China after days of rising tensions between Muslim Uighurs and Han Chinese, according to witnesses and photographs of the riot.
The rioting broke out Sunday afternoon in a large market area of Urumqi, the capital of the vast, restive desert region of Xinjiang, and lasted for several hours before riot police officers and paramilitary or military troops locked down the Uighur quarter of the city. The rioters threw stones at the police and set vehicles on fire, sending plumes of smoke into the sky, while police officers used firehoses and batons to beat back rioters and detain Uighurs who appeared to be leaders of the protest, witnesses said.
Basel II, you come up with a lot of good research and commentary here. That business of studying for the bar exam must be excruciating. Are you studying for the bar exam now, or still getting your law degree?
Avl Dao, will you enter politics through the R or D door? I don't care for partisan politics, but I am curious what the selection process is for someone who has to make a choice, and is more motivated by principle than ambition.
@Broward: Who's going to improve that silicon doctor (which sounds like a useful idea), if no one in the future is studying the medical details hard enough to assimilate the existing knowledge as well as currently possible? I don't believe in alien intelligence. I do believe in digital synthesis of accumulated data, but it requires expertise to know which data to accumulate next, and to do so in a manner that isn't so flawed as to be useless. People cannot remember (for long) skills that are not practiced, so I do fear that a shortened workweek really does translate into reduced knowledge / expertise.
Wisdom speaker, I think the tendency for work will be (even more) toward a pyramid: At the top will be people like Nobel prize winners and top company and political leaders etc. They 'work' 24/7, but for them work is life, and isn't 'work'. At the other extreme are people who are people who are disabled in some way, and just need a way to meet their material needs and get care. With advances in our productivity, we get to broaden the pyramid's base, while making the pyramid bigger too.
I called for a reduction in payroll taxes to be offset with a rise in fuel taxes. I think this would have slowed the climb in unemployment while forcing greater
conservation and a reduction in imports, hoping that the money would circulate in our economy and not overseas. As to the part-time worker trend, it is in full force.
Part-time loyalty goes both ways.
patientrenter: sitting for the regular VA bar in a couple of weeks, and then the patent bar the following month. not that i actually intend on practicing law... however, my uncle works in a boutique IP firm, so that if i'll always have contract work...
the commentary for the law that posted above didn't quite make the screen, but the gist of it was that Congress has created a very strange incentive for companies to (1) hire unskilled workers and (2) have a very high turnover rate for the workers that are hired. There was some pressure a couple of years ago to include older workers as a targeted subgroup, but no luck. However, unemployed veterans were included last year, which could explain the uptick in big boxes hiring older workers, especially if the workers' health care costs are covered by the VA.
@Nova: There was a revolution in workweek in the 1930s. There have also been many changes since. I suppose there was nearly a revolution in government, but the Constitution held up under pressure.
@Basel: Thanks for explaining the legal post!
@Broward: Expert systems are still created by human experts.
OT but in regards to the prior thread If we are following in Japan's footsteps "the lost decade" it should be noted that in 1990 18% of Japan's workforce was contract or part-time workers. In 2005 that number had risen to 30%.
I think the lawmakers should take aggressive efforts to put an end to the rising unemployment levels. It is due to this high rate of unemployment that housing foreclosures are constantly rising.
! I even read most of the post before I noticed that there were zero comments.
I think that at some point the last few workers are gonna
say I can't do this any more and quit, or just stop.
Paradox of Thrift.. Deflationary Spiral..
The change U-6 can believe in!
When looking for a meaningful change in the UE rate, my stat of choice will be Year Over Year change in U-6 non-adjusted...just sayin'
Makes sense to me. Why hire new, cost to train etc, when you have someone willing to work more hours and already knows the job. Plus there is very llittle increase in employee costs.
In addition, I think you would really piss off your current part time people.
"I need to work my existing workers more."
サラリーマン - Salarymen
Salaryman - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Lifestyle revolves entirely around work at the office.
Diligent but unoriginal.
Lack of initiative and competitiveness.
Let us not forget the millions of shadow workers that were not on the books although their labor showed up as productivity gains.
June 30, 2009
For five years, immigrant day laborer Leo Chamale wired money twice a month from New Jersey to his family in Guatemala. Recently, he stepped up to the money transfer window for a different purpose - to ask that his family send some of his savings back to him.
"I hadn't worked for five months, and I was two months behind on rent, so I had them send $1,500," the 21-year-old Chamale said in Spanish. "My mother said, `That's a lot of money!'"
Immigrants in US are asking for money from home | Washington Examiner
I think that Luci is right about the pay for consumption thing.
We really don't need so much stuff. Being involved in moving my
office and moving my mother, and trying to get rid of excess stuff.. .
It is a pain.
Less stuff in landfills, less stuff to pollute by manufacturing.
Better made, more unique stuff.
And as I have posted before it was a side issue in a Heilein novel
and I still can't remember the name of it.
Progression to 'recovery': add temp workers, then part-time to full time, full-time to overtime, then maybe, add workers. Managers really don't like adding employees until they must - benefits (if any), social-security (employer part), workman's compensation premiums, hassle of hiring for manager (justification, interviews, choosing without discrimination that can be detected).
Workers of the world unite!
I got pigged, so here it is again.
MrM- "There are only two major players in the commercial wide-body aircraft, and it is hard to imagine either one of them will lose all of its clients and future orders because of problems with one model."
MrM, here's a little history for you.
In 1938, there were three serious manufacturers of land-based commercial aircraft in the US: Boeing, Douglas and Lockheed.
In early '38, Lockheed introduced the Super Electra, a scale-up of the Model 10 (the model Amelia Earhart purchased in '36).
Anyway, the Super Electra, like the Model 10, had the famous twin tail design for which Lockheed was known. It developed that the tail had flutter problems. In rough weather, it would literally rip off the airplane, often with little or no warning. This happened twice to Northwest Airlines, whose entire fleet was the Electra series.
After investigation, it turned out that the instrument Lockheed had been using to measure resonant vibrations was OUT OF CALIBRATION, hence leading to a faulty design.
Even though Lockheed remedied the problem, Northwest sold ALL of their Super Electras because passengers wouldn't fly in them. Northwest bought the Douglas.
This damned near killed Lockheed. If it hadn't been for World War II, Lockheed could very well have ceased to exist. There was ENORMOUS reputational damage.
At what point will Chamale realize that he'd be better off in Guatamala?
And Guatemala will realize that it will be better off not exporting its hardest
working, most productive citizens.
Maybe I'm searching for data to fit the thesis, but when the 90-91 recession ended part-time employment leveled off but unemployment continued up for ~14 months.
mp - thanks, I left a response on the previous thread
There few things more valuable than a good story of what actually happened.
That said
Do you really believe that airlines will go to Airbus-only fleets? That would give Airbus too much pricing power and airlines would be very afraid of that.
Plus political pressure on US airlines ...
I'm wondering how many ways we can wordsmith and spin "Public works labor forces"?
It's merely a matter of time.
As I wrote before the pig appeared on the last post:
PatientRenter, I speak as a former Illinoisian very active in Obama's district back when he was a state senator and quite assessible for evaluating how he ticks.
Dont hold ur breath. He and his economic advisors would need to make the equivalent of a change of religious belief before they see: 1) a financially sustainable US economy as not driven by excessive credit, 2) banking & bank CEOs as not Brahmins as Geithner preaches to them, 3) globalization as not the solution, and 4) intellectual 'black boxes' as not reliable sources of fixes but simply mental placebos that allow folks to sleep well at night under the premise that 'someone real smart ' will invent a solution tomorow.
manana manana.
Despite all of Reagan's charisma, had the economy not turned around in 1982-1984, voters would have kicked him to the curb as they did his 3 predeccessors in quick succession. This in contrast to the 25-year secular bull market and 25 years of rising and multiple overlapping economic bubbles (1982-2007) that allowed every sitting president to get re-elected, save one hapless soul, GB1st.
"This time might be different, but I wouldn't count on it. "
ITS Different this time
Look at Japan everyone under 40 is part-time
Good point Tim 2012.
Hey, are u serious about 2012 as in Mayan Prophecy...or US election?
Part time work makes having two or three jobs more bearable, right?
Tim waiting for 2012, that difference I can see - that is probably already happening here too (a trend toward workers always being part time)
best wishes
AVL
Just US election but thanks
Scrooge might have been thinking the same thing
CR thanks we'll see
and the old folks in japan expect to have a pleasant retirement.
//Look at Japan everyone under 40 is part-time//
Tim2012 and CR , I delved deeper into how Toyota plans to survive selling only 6.9 million vehicles globally annually, while struggling with the global capaity to sell 10 million; and the use & role of of permanent PT workers became clear as a part of their strategy.
A final thought on Lockheed.
You may recall the turboprop Electra. It was plagued with vibration problems which led to several catastrophic failures.
Anyway, after the turboprop, Lockheed didn't try to introduce another commercial design until the L1011, which was another turkey.
That just goes to show how far back the memories go in this business.
Don't forget that PT workers get much less in benefits, such as health care and pension
Here is a cost saving opportunity!
/snark off
If I read that chart with a fine-toothed comb, I think it's quite clear that in most recessions the "part-time for economic reasons" stabilizes and/or peaks a few months before the unemployment rate peaks. It's not a "year-ahead" leading indicator, but a few months ahead.
Looking specifically at the recessions shown on the large version of CR's chart:
By my inspection of the chart, this is a signal that has been accurate in 6 of the previous 7 recessions. Ritholtz believes quite firmly in this, and I'm inclined to agree with him.
Perhaps the line should be "I need to work my existing workers more. [And then, about 3 months later.] Hey, things are looking up, and I need some new people too!"
Of course, this recession could be different from the other postwar recessions, and more like the Great Depression, since the economic causes are more congruent with the GD.
But they also pay less taxes..
//Don't forget that PT workers get much less in benefits, such as health care and pension//
"and the old folks in japan expect to have a pleasant retirement."
exactly!
That just goes to show how far back the memories go in this business.
Now that's business you can trust your life to.
OTOH, how far back do the memories go in investment banking??
WalMart uses many part time workers. They don't qualify for benifits = cheaper.
This may be the trend that is set for the next generation.
But they also pay less taxes..
But that's the government's problem, isn't it?
Revenue == government
Less Revenue == less government
Wisdom
2001 may not be an outlier, rather it may be the precursor to a new trend.
The 1980 trendline and all its predecessors represented an economy where manufacturing was a larger percentage of the headcount of workers and the dollar-value of the economy.
The post 1973-82 transformation of the economy into a service economy gives us only two trendlines that not surprisingly contradict each other.
Anectdotally, here in NC and any parts of the Old South, where gun and ammo sales have been off the chart since October, many guns-n-ammo firms, retail and mfg, still say they dont plan to hire...they're simply extending hours for their workers. They've been consistent in their tactics for months.
"Don't forget that PT workers get much less in benefits, such as health care and pension
Here is a cost saving opportunity!"
In my area, plenty of companies run on <30-hour-a-week workers,and always have done. Lets them offer benefits without paying them, except to the few full-timers they're actually wanting to keep long-term.
College town. Lots of skilled cannon fodder that's willing to be taken advantage of for the chance to slack out a little longer before joining real life.
mp,
agreed that Boeing is venturing into unknown territory with dreamliner, esp. regarding composites in the wing structure. They'd have been better off funding continuous process Ti smelting research to achieve weight savings and better strength at a cheaper cost.
But that's just me.
Only way U6 turns around is boomers leaving the workforce through retirement.
Pensions?
//Only way U6 turns around is boomers leaving the workforce through retirement.//
"a trend toward workers always being part time"
I think "part time" is a misnomer, workers without benefits or workers without health insurance is more accurate.
Only way U6 turns around is boomers leaving the workforce through retirement.
With 401(k) taken massive hits if anything one should expect boomers to come out of retirement and/or work longer
mrM, it is already happening. Just look at the labor force participation rates for workers over 65. Going up up up...
The more interesting thing to note is that while jobs have been shed like mad, more of these folks and others 55 plus have been finding work. It used to be that older workers were having a rough time, but now, there seems to be an inclination toward hiring them. I have to dig into the numbers more on this and see what is up.
MrM,
Catch 22?
"Kuwait Wants Oil Prices to Stay Above $60 a Barrel "
Kuwait Wants Oil Prices to Stay Above $60 a Barrel (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Talk to GS about that.
GDD900, yes there's been news on older workers' success at getting hired at the mall and at big box retailers.
But I question aging boomers' abilities to hang on to high-paying top mgmt/mid-mgmt jobs once they're past retirememt age. They "are expensive" in the eyes of employers. Their boomer-age peers who are their bosses seem quick to jettison them with no sense of cohort loyalty.
hahahahaha
Where The Jobs Are: Retail, The South & More
Jobs Growth Biggest in Retail, South: Careerbuilder - CNBC
By: CNBC.com | 01 Jul 2009 | 02:53 PM ET
As the economy continues its slow recovery, the biggest areas of job growth will be in the South and in the retail sector, the head of Careerbuilder told CNBC. The pace of job losses is slowing, said Careerbuilder CEO Matt Ferguson, adding that other sectors that will see the most growth are health care, insurance, and for-profit education companies.
traderWalt, good point.
Im trying to purge these 2 phrases myself: "Jobless Recovery" and "'L'-shaped Recovery".
I'll add urs to the list. It raises awareness that not all PT-ers are teens just working for i-pod money, but rather also many adults who need benefits.
I think that CareerBuilder CEO has an incentive for cheer-lie-ading blather about job growth.
And for-profit education firms? what are they...1/10th of 1/10th of 1/10th of one-percent of the labor force? Easy to grow when u can only go up. And thats hardly a given due to their horrid track record in the courts with abuse of federal student aid.
Boomers increase health insurance cost for a company, The cost is figured on the ages, sex of all employees. The higher the percentage of over 40yr olds, the higher the cost to the firm. And as reg employees all pay the same portion of total, younger people pay a higher percentage.
The top brass get extra perk of fully paid insureance most of the time, so they don't care. The average worker pays for the top peoples insurances as well, in full.
Some small firms will give a set amount to an employee to offset health insurance. Same amount if you are 25 or 55. But the individuals cost are very different.
Worsening Unemployment
Worsening Unemployment - Richard Florida
"broader U-6 rate of unemployment which includes "marginally attached workers" inched higher to 16.5 percent in June up from 10.1 percent last year."
GDD9000, does that extend beyond what Avl Dao was talking about with low level retail jobs? Everything I've seen suggests that regaining employment at anywhere near where these workers used to be is impossible. One part of this is their higher healthcare costs. Two others, are fear of age discrimination claims if employers later want to fire them, and bosses afraid of too much experience/knowledge encroaching on their unquestioned authority. I'd be very curious to see if you have some data suggesting otherwise though.
I chastised our local rag this morning for having never referenced the U-4 thru U-6 rates whenever reporting on NC's joblessness.
Here is the user-friendly federal website for government data on joblessness.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table A-12 Alternative Measures of Labor Under-utilization.: Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
June 2009: U-5 = 10.8%; U-3, as parroted by the local rag= 9.5%.
U-6 = a whopping 16.5%.
It used to be that older workers were having a rough time, but now, there seems to be an inclination toward hiring them.
Not true according to comparisons of unemployment periods.
Older Workers Remain Unemployed Longer - Planning to Retire (usnews.com)
Unemployment Is Really 10%
Unemployment Is Really 10% - The Atlantic Business Channel
CBS, Helen Thomas Challenge Gibbs On "Controlled" Town Hall Meeting
RealClearPolitics - Video - CBS, Helen Thomas Challenge Gibbs On "Controlled" Town Hall Meeting
@Avl Dao - I concur. The future economy will be structurally different from the post-1980 economy, which in turn was structurally different from the pre-1970 economy. It may not be easy to spot the peak in any case -- the part-time series is noisier than the (more heavily "managed"?) main unemployment series.
I'm hoping that the guns 'n' ammo sales won't turn into riots 'n' bloodshed!!
As has been discussed here several times, if employment doesn't rebound, then the de facto shortened workweek could be enshrined as a national 4-day workweek (32 hours, maybe 30 hours with shorter Thursdays), or a 5-day 6-hour workweek. This would work "well enough" for offices that don't run 24/7 or 12/6. For manufacturing plants running 24/7, production workers could have 3 1/2 days/week of work and then 3 1/2 days off.
However, one problem I see now (and will see in spades if the trend continues) is that highly skilled / expert workers may have trouble achieving excellence if the hours are reduced too much. While one might not want to be treated by a doctor who has been burned out by a decade of 100-hour workweeks, one probably also does not want to be treated by a doctor who only works 30 hours/week! Similar problems apply in other fields (especially research, science, biotech, engineering...) where true expertise is required and where such expertise cannot be developed and sustained without a substantial and ongoing dedication of large chunks of time. The same is also true for fields where the "mythical man-month" problem applies: in many cases two workers time-sharing a job at 3 1/2 days/week are less productive than one dedicated worker doing 5-6 days/week. (An example might be real estate agents...)
sanityclause - that is what i want to dig into...what type of jobs they are talking. It could largely be walmart greeters, etc. From what im see out in them there "real world", that is what it is. Ive noticed an awful lot of retail cashier types, bookstores, etc, that look decidedly over the standard retirement age. But anecdotes arent enough for me.
Its not hard to create the so called jobless recovery (which I really enjoyed earlier seeing a commenter refer to as absurd as the "famine Buffet")
Just take each sector, look at the total job in it, put in reasonable growth based on what we know about structural problems. Construction, decimated levels and very weak if any growth when it does come. Manufacturing. LOL. Government? Uh, how we gonna pay for that? Education? Meh.... Only thing we'll get is health care, and that will be weaker than last time.
Remember, last time around, we had construction and retail bubbles and job growth STILL stunk out loud for two years. This time, glod help us.
Once you let The Man know you are willing to work part time without benefits, you will never be offered a full time job again unless you are either a truly extraordinary individual, or the labor market becomes signficantly constrained.
For most middle class or working class jobs, I suspect the labor market will never be constrained again in our lifetimes. Unless there is a major population adjustment.
one probably also does not want to be treated by a doctor who only works 30 hours/week! Similar problems apply in other fields (especially research, science, biotech, engineering...) where true expertise is required
All bound into silicon.
An alien intelligence for medicine will do a better job of diagnosis than any doctor can.
A shortened work-week is because of increased efficiency & production, not lack of knowledge or demand.
You can argue about mythical-man-month cases but they exist at 40-hours per week already.
That's a function of knowledge domain size and integration, i.e. definition of profession and training.
The real driver will be social equality, not efficiency.
ALBRT
+!
Under The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (P.L. 105-34), the [Work Opportunity Tax Credit] utilizes a two-tier tax credit format. Employers can claim 25% of the qualified first-year wages up to $6,000 for employees working, at least 120 hours but less than 400. For employees working a least 400 hours or more, the credit is calculated at the rate of 40% of the qualified first-year wages up to $6,000. This allows a maximum credit of $2,400. The Long Term Family Assistance recipient is calculated at 40% of the qualified first year wages up to $10,000 and 50% of qualified second year wages, maximum savings $9,000. For the Summer Youth target group, the credit is calculated at a rate of 25% of the qualified first-year wages up to $3,000. The disabled veteran only, the maximum qualifying wages are up to $12,000.
Qualifying groups.
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Long-term Family Assistance Recipients
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Amazon.com: After the Internet : Alien Intelligence (9780895262806): James Martin: Books
computers are developing an alien intelligence that is radically different from human intelligence and incomparably more powerful in its focused areas. As alien intelligence feeds on itself and grows like a chain reaction, linked across the planet on a ubiquitous Internet, it will change virtually every aspect of our lives: business, investing, science, health care, entertainment, and more.
From NY Times
Riots Erupt in Western China Amid Ethnic Tension
BEIJING — At least 1,000 rioters clashed with the police on Sunday in a regional capital in western China after days of rising tensions between Muslim Uighurs and Han Chinese, according to witnesses and photographs of the riot.
The rioting broke out Sunday afternoon in a large market area of Urumqi, the capital of the vast, restive desert region of Xinjiang, and lasted for several hours before riot police officers and paramilitary or military troops locked down the Uighur quarter of the city. The rioters threw stones at the police and set vehicles on fire, sending plumes of smoke into the sky, while police officers used firehoses and batons to beat back rioters and detain Uighurs who appeared to be leaders of the protest, witnesses said.
Basel II, you come up with a lot of good research and commentary here. That business of studying for the bar exam must be excruciating. Are you studying for the bar exam now, or still getting your law degree?
Avl Dao, will you enter politics through the R or D door? I don't care for partisan politics, but I am curious what the selection process is for someone who has to make a choice, and is more motivated by principle than ambition.
@Broward: Who's going to improve that silicon doctor (which sounds like a useful idea), if no one in the future is studying the medical details hard enough to assimilate the existing knowledge as well as currently possible? I don't believe in alien intelligence. I do believe in digital synthesis of accumulated data, but it requires expertise to know which data to accumulate next, and to do so in a manner that isn't so flawed as to be useless. People cannot remember (for long) skills that are not practiced, so I do fear that a shortened workweek really does translate into reduced knowledge / expertise.
Wisdom speaker, I think the tendency for work will be (even more) toward a pyramid: At the top will be people like Nobel prize winners and top company and political leaders etc. They 'work' 24/7, but for them work is life, and isn't 'work'. At the other extreme are people who are people who are disabled in some way, and just need a way to meet their material needs and get care. With advances in our productivity, we get to broaden the pyramid's base, while making the pyramid bigger too.
Small example of what an alien intelligence will look like -
Welcome to Shazam
I've been using Shazam on my iPhone for a few months.
It is already better at identifying music than any human being could ever be.
I don't think you will see any "revolutions" in work week and job descriptions until there is a revolution.
I called for a reduction in payroll taxes to be offset with a rise in fuel taxes. I think this would have slowed the climb in unemployment while forcing greater
conservation and a reduction in imports, hoping that the money would circulate in our economy and not overseas. As to the part-time worker trend, it is in full force.
Part-time loyalty goes both ways.
patientrenter: sitting for the regular VA bar in a couple of weeks, and then the patent bar the following month. not that i actually intend on practicing law... however, my uncle works in a boutique IP firm, so that if i'll always have contract work...
the commentary for the law that posted above didn't quite make the screen, but the gist of it was that Congress has created a very strange incentive for companies to (1) hire unskilled workers and (2) have a very high turnover rate for the workers that are hired. There was some pressure a couple of years ago to include older workers as a targeted subgroup, but no luck. However, unemployed veterans were included last year, which could explain the uptick in big boxes hiring older workers, especially if the workers' health care costs are covered by the VA.
What happens when we all end up marginaly employed? Everyone has a job, but only works 6 hrs a day or 8 hours in a 4 day work week.
What happens as more and more companies, cut wages of current empolyees by 10% or more.
There is allot of wage deflation going on in differant forms already. Will we all simply adjust to this and if so how?
Checking out, back to real life.
@Nova: There was a revolution in workweek in the 1930s. There have also been many changes since. I suppose there was nearly a revolution in government, but the Constitution held up under pressure.
@Basel: Thanks for explaining the legal post!
@Broward: Expert systems are still created by human experts.
broward,
played Doom on iPhone yet?
Employed --> part-time employed --> unemployed --> this
We're in trouble.
OT but in regards to the prior thread If we are following in Japan's footsteps "the lost decade" it should be noted that in 1990 18% of Japan's workforce was contract or part-time workers. In 2005 that number had risen to 30%.
Map of unemployment by metro area:
Mapping US Metropolitan Unemployment Rates, May 2009 | Newgeography.com
Peak Unemployment...Buy Buy Buy
Would you consider posting graphs of BLS's Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours?
Table B-5. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
The seasonally adjusted index hit a peak of 107.8 in Dec-07 and fell to 99.0 (p) for Jun-09.
Considering that the labor force is growing about 1% per year, that represents almost a 10% drop in hours worked per worker.
I think the lawmakers should take aggressive efforts to put an end to the rising unemployment levels. It is due to this high rate of unemployment that housing foreclosures are constantly rising.
I recently read an interesting article on this premise.
Unemployment and Foreclosure