Where's the song about Green Shoots?

Chinese Torture..

//Singh adviser Tendulkar said that big dollar holders face a “prisoner’s dilemma” in terms of managing their holdings.//

EHP - If you're out there ---- Re: Canuck Banks.... Why Didn’t Canadian Banks Go Wild? | The Big Picture 

...............................

CR ---- Enjoy the holiday.... lite postings are in order.....

best wishes!

....................................................

Happy 4th All...

......................................................................................

That is what they say.. canuck transparency makes the USA look good.

// Why Didn’t Canadian Banks Go Wild? | The Big Picture //

"Fear Itself"

Actually it is about a collapsing money supply ...

And the USGs feeble attempt at reblowing a bubble ... any bubble ...

instead of de-leveraging $50 trillion in aggregate debt ...

Luci - I thought you were the one who use to beef with him.... Cheers!

JD - you should post a youtube link for those of us who are sub 30.... wait... I just turned 30.... still.....

(and as always love the rehashes... I've sent them to buddies... Serf'in was priceless...)

.......................

Lucifer

Did you know ...

Canada nationalized their central bank in 1936 ?

mmckinl,

But it did not shorten the depression.

//Canada nationalized their central bank in 1936 ?//

CR, would you do a seperate post about why you think we're not in a depression yet?

Btw, I was in Kauai last week; boy does it look like it's in very deep trouble. One of the major mall (coconut mall) has at least 30% empty storefront. Ironically, when I checked it out, they had on a hula show, so the shoppers all were near the stage staring at the dancers, while the store owners were looking vapidly out of their store. At dinner on Thursday in downtown Kapaa, many main street restaurants had one or two patrons. The restaurant I was at had a guitar player, so that drew in a bit of crowd. A new sushi place was to be opened; I looked inside, the place must've been only half done, as the woodworks are barely in. An artist sat lonely on the floor, staring at the number of life drawings on the wall. I wanted to scream ' that's not gonna bring the customers in!', but I refrained.

Wait till people start demanding pensions...

//"Yes, the money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization. "//

".....why you think we're not in a depression yet?"

.......it's kind of like pornography - you'll know it when you see it.......

"And finally, in our progress towards a resumption of work, we require two safeguards against a return of the evils of the old order. There must be a strict supervision of all banking and credits and investments. There must be an end to speculation with other people's money. And there must be provision for an adequate but sound currency."

Scrooge McDuck - I'm doing 6 to 9 months of random travel.... no job... money to burn.... let me know if you have any good ideas... I'm in Conn for the weekend... South Boston for the next few weeks and then to Guatemala for some Spanish classes.... I think its going to be a great year! Couldnt be a better time to be homeless / asset less!

You have not been reading the news.. they have bailed their banks and mortgage holders to the same extent as the US.. just more quietly and with 1/10th the amount (1/10th the population).

//But they didn't bail their banks out with trillions this time around either...//

I concur.... CR has been right so far because he hasnt gone to the extreme... I'll find that post by BR on the most successful prognosticators.... (no extremes (a la Jas & Seb))

Scrooge McDuck -
Hopefully you had fun, less traffic and empty beaches to enjoy right!

you want Lucifer, I will give you Lucifer...

I hear from you all that either you're retired (with retirement benefits) or you have a lot of years ahead so you can make it up in future years.
I am sorry, no matter your status in life, get ready to be fu&ked. You can sit back on your couch and watch MSM or you can get off you #ss.. really do not care what you do....Just do not come a Knocking at my door for help!

By continuing to play the game, you are part of the problem....You will continue to play until you have been totally stripped of your wealth...Be a fool, I do not care...Its your life, live it however you want....

I guess as Lucifer would say, we will all burn in hell together, in h*ll....LOL

Nades I'm afeared to change anything for fear I can't post again.

You got music to go with your blues, Pavel?

*No, I don't think the economy is in a depression ... - CR

S'Okay. We're patient. Some people need more data than others.

@nades

Same here; quit my job 2 weeks ago and moved most of my savings out of dollar. But I'm heading the other way going to Japan in about a month, and stay 3 months to learn Japanese. Then leave for a bit and check out Vietnam/Bali/Singapore/Hong Kong. Gonna stay in Asia for at least 9 months.

Do post about your experience in guatemala....I've heard great things about that country. Would you be checking out some of the (oceanfront) real estates there?

"You got music to go with your blues, Pavel?"

Sorry, I don't do music.

Who had Wainwright been talking to?

I really hadn't realized the general public (audience) was so aware.

Sounds good to me, landlord.

Here's one I took liberties with a couple of years ago:

I make my living off the buyer's blues
Just loan them money, they'll pay their dues
People don't know what they lose, they love dirty money

Well, I could've been a Realtor, but I wound up here
I just have to look good, and I try not to sneer
Let me whisper in your ear, take my dirty money

Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em all around

We got the bubbleheaded blog-bears, with all their jive
They can tell you about the price crash with a gleam in their eyes
It's interesting when buyers lie, take my dirty money

Can we film the prosecution? Is the well dry yet?
You know the boys in the backroom got a running bet
Tell the sucker not to sweat, take my dirty money

You don't really need to find out what's going on
You don't really want to know just how far it's gone
Just leave well enough alone, take my dirty money

Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're stiff, kick 'em all around

Dirty little secrets, dirty little lies
We got our dirty little fingers in everybody's pie
Love to cut you down to size, we love dirty money

We can do the innuendo, we can dance and sing
When it's said and done, we haven't told you a thing
We all know that crap is king, take my dirty money

Straight to the mainline, Jimi at Winterland:

YouTube -

C

Australia has not done too badly.

//Name me another country dependent on natural resources that has done better?//

"From FDRs speech.. in 1933"

Damn good speech.

But I can't help thinking that if speeches were horses beggars could ride.

More fireworks practice in NW DC. Unless it's the UXO in Spring Valley...

C

U6 > 25%, U3 > 15%

I concur... The GD used U6 right?

U3 is a joke....

One of your best... "Redemption"s = priceless....

Excellent, landlord.

Spanish is South American is different from Spain. They kinda lisp in Spain, I
understand.

Scrooge, out of dollars and into what? My dollars are burning up in my pocket, but I still see more deflation just not with any confidence. No idea where to put them.

sanityclause

Gold can increase in times of credit stress

We used to have wild peacocks here, and then some environmental nuts
said they were non native and had them destroyed. No kidding.

They are interesting. They do fly, but very badly. They would get fairly close.

It has been doing nothing but raining here.

LL - just went to a "Spanish" wedding... Castilian... They claimed they didnt speak 'spanish'... Some other dialect.... I got half of what they said... I'm inclined to believe...

An outbreak of CAIDS* has been reported...

• Credit Acquired Intelligence Deficiency Syndrome

"The GD used U6 right?"

Not sure. Methodologies seem to change a lot in measuring UE. But as I recall the GD method was much closer to U6. Any experts out there?

@lawyerliz

That's a shame about the peacocks. Is it because of the cuban tree frogs? (peacocks actually emits a rather loud sound, louder than a rooster's crow)

JD - I just sent out your Redemption Song..... I got this back "Dude these AREN'T funny"

Obvi I disagree....

I don't know about the GD, but if we used 1964 era unemployment stats methodology instead of today's model, we'd be around 17% nationwide...

Actually Juvie, I think CAIDs has been diminishing.

"I think those other languages really are languages, not dialects."

That's right, Liz, and people are very nationalistic about it. Catalonia - Cataluna - was a great Mediterranean power at one time.

There's the lisp thing, but there's also vocabulary differences:

peach=melocoton(Spain)=durazno(Americas)
draft beer=cerveza de grifa/jarra(Spain)=chopp/chope(Americas)

nothing that really is problematic, though.

Ignore really has been my friend this weekend so far.

"Pavel

Good median between U3 and U6. Makes a lot of sense."

Tim, sorry, I've lost track here.

Hmmm, dropped esses.

Wonder if a lot of Spanish Cubans came from Catalonia?

" In Cuban you say buena.

Like g'day. Except just good."

Sounds like bass drums rolling now, or thunder.

Had a Cuban girlfriend many years ago. Cristina, where are you?

"Wonder if a lot of Spanish Cubans came from Catalonia?"

More likely from Andalusia. But my girlfriend's family came from Asturias in the north, from the city of Oviedo.

Or, anywhere else I believe, Comrade A.

Somewhere I read some speculations that basques were the decendents
of the first people in Europe.

Well, English is a mongrel language, part germanic, part French and a whole
lot of anything and everything else, but so what?

ScroogeMcDuck - I'll email you if you're ok with that.... I'm headed out now but mucho interested in the Japanese language school... fascinating culture.... (and a fair deal!)

"We are channeling thoughts, Pavel!"

I find that happens a lot with friends. So we must be friends, Liz.

"Well, English is a mongrel language, part germanic, part French and a whole
lot of anything and everything else, but so what?"

Yes. I has hybrid vigor.

Hmm, less mongrel than English, at least you are talking 2 romance languages.

Of course it could have an entirely different line of descent.

While we are of course on a different tack, I read that somewhere a lot of
deaf children, none of whom had sign language, were sent to this boarding
school. It might have been in the US or somewhere in South American.

Anyway, they were all concentrated together, and they invented, all by themselves, a new sign language. First it was like a creole, rather deficient, and then the 2nd generation of kids came to the school, and finished developing it into a full
language. Language is what people do.

Alas, except for English, I have no talent for learning a separate language, except I can read Spanish.

Pavel, I'm sure you have hybred vigor also!!

Not being judgemental on languages origins, just showing the family tree.

Barcelona is a great town, just not one to work on your Spanish. The more provincial the better in that regard.

Well, my computer was acting up earlier, so I have to stay
later.

"As well as friends."

Yep.

I am mostly Irish and German, with a touch of a lot of other places in
Western Europe. The Irish and the German in me are often at
war!

The city of Cocoa (not Cocoa Beach, on the mainland) will have a fireworks
show to the tune of the 1812 overture.

I have no great confidence that rain won't interfere.

It was good last year. We used to go to the beach and the fireworks
were set off from a barge on the ocean, but it was cancelled last year--
no money. Don't know about this year.

We set off a few of our own too, usually.

"I am mostly Irish and German"

Like my wife. Stereotypes aside, she's extremely hard working, precise and responsible, but also has a great sense of humor. We share the sense of humor part.

I dunno; 16 or 17% seems about right, now. But the unemployed
kinda tend to disappear. Don't know where. Relatives? But we
haven't been hit, I think with the full force of the car industry debacle.

I wonder how many of the discouraged are surviving in a shadow economy.

@sm_landlord

Gotcha, thanks. They're not adding people like Nades and I, the 'annoyed' numbers who choose not to work.

Obama's Housing Rescue Expands:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

Obama's objective with his Wall St bought and paid for economic team is to pump up great chunks of the Big Shitpile that's essentially worthless unless the peak real estate values of the bubble can be miraculously restored.

What a fu*cking jackass i.e reward the gamblers and deadbeats at expense of responsible people that now how to live within their means.

The pile is NOT being plumped or pumped up. This I know
for a fact.

And----it's tooooooo laaaate.

I mean, some places are now 25 cents on the dollar. It can't be done.

Liz,
I blogged earlier this week about Victorvile and 17¢ on the dollar. The coyote does not see the canyon floor. Nothing wrong with it, decent sized lot and a pool. You want fixers? 10¢ and all you can carry.

Not to dispute CR, but:

Current recession tracks great depression - with charts

First, global industrial output tracks the decline in industrial output during the Great Depression horrifyingly close

Second, the collapse in the volume of world trade has been far worse than during the first year of the Great Depression.

Third, despite the recent bounce, the decline in world stock markets is far bigger than in the corresponding period of the Great Depression.

The recession tracks the Great Depression

I think the author is saying at this point in time, it is mimicing the great depression; so eventually, the dow will be down 89% or more.

Who can live on quarter pay?

On the other hand, in Miami, they'd just take the quarter pay and find a job
off the books.

counter "It's too late"

YouTube - ∞ It's Too Late ∞

Yeah, Bobn, that's the toooo late I was thinking of.

Of course world trade collapsed, when oil was cheap products would routinely cross borders multiple times before the end prodct shipped. Both the numerator and denominator were higher because of multiple counts but the profit only increased because of labor arbitrage.

IOTW, an overrated stat.

bobn / liz - every gen gets to have its very own it's too late, shurely...

C

But MrM, the money just isn't moving.

Yes, velocity is low and that , along with big deleveraging, keeps inflation in check.
However, the government bet is that the economy will start growing again and soon, so that all that huge debt will be paid through economic growth. If that does not happen, then inflation will kick in, since the strategic default is unlikely.

Whose strategic default? The govt's? I agree, without
serious inflation (slow default), the money can't be paid
back. On the other hand, if no one loans us any money for
a while, we might be forced to stop being debt junkies.

Who's strategic default? The govt's?
Yes
Nytol - the guests have arrived

The strategic default looks low odds.

The strategic margin call... bit higher.

C

GDII - The "GreenShoot Depression"

"Can you get to to that"

I once had a life, or rather
Life had me
I was one among many
Or at least I seemed to be
Well, I read an old quotation in a book just yesterday
Said "Gonna reap just what you sow,
The debts you make you have to pay."
Can you get to that?

Can you get (I wanna know)
I want to know if you can get to that (hey!) (get to that!)
Can you get (can you get to that)(I wanna know)
I want to know if you can get to that

I recollect with a-mixed emotions
All the good times we used to have
But you were making preparations
For the coming separation
And you blew everything we had

When you base your love on credit
And your loving days are done
Checks you signed with a-love and kisses
Later come back signed "insufficient funds"
Yeah, get to that!

Can you get (I wanna know)
I want to know if you can get to that (hey!) (get to that!)
Can you get (can you get to that)(I wanna know)
I want to know if you can get to that

One of G. Clintons best songs

No blues. How about serfin USA ?

Mr. sporto-champ-bro Im doin blues cuz its songs for the GDii

Here's a quarter for the British telco hot monkey button pushers...

London Homesick Blues

by Mr Gary P Nunn

Per Lightnin Hopkins, the Goin down slow Depression:

YouTube - LIGHTNIN HOPKINS " GOIN DOWN SLOW"

C

I don't comment much. It's hard to keep up. Just trying to absorb it all.

YouTube - John Fahey - Poor Boys Long Way From Home

I give up. Here are your blues.

Not convinced, waiting to se Q4 GDP to be negative YoY, which is gonna be hard to pull off.

The great hangover from all the bubbly Alan served us.

I've thought that this summer was gonna be the bottom what with last year's stimulus checks, this summer's 50 Herbert Hoovers all but confirms it. Now TPTB need how to thumb this dike and they're almost home free. Spring 2010 has been my call since October 08 and nothings really swayed me otherwise.

"The world needs more Trigs."

And also.

(sounds of wild geese having their necks wrung somewhere just off-screen. David Lynch must be taking notes...)

sorry, link is Jesse's Café Américain

pavel.chichikov wrote on Sat, 7/4/2009 - 10:12: I wonder how many of the discouraged are surviving in a shadow economy.

Late to this festival, but count me in Pavel. After making the decision to go to ground, we just accomplished a move (w/in Hong Kong) that lops about half off our monthly living expenses. We are picking up work where we can, but we're off radar screens except for those most local. We can putter around like this for a long, long time. I just came down from the roof surveying the surrounding village after a heavy rain; with a big smile on my face.

Aside to Scrooge and Nades, if your wanderings bring you to HK, feel free to keep me apprised, and I'll show you how to do it on the cheap (relatively speaking, of course).

When the ammo's gone and the Hippies and Rednecks start fighting...you know you are in the right bar...

just thank Allah that you aint in India, China, or Brazil when the Revolution Blues kicks off....

kneale Yung.

the never-ending great unwinding. thats how i see it.

sm_landlord,

By "Greater Depression" I mean economic & societal impacts greater than the first, although given the changed nature of the world in 80 years the effects will manifest themselves in far different ways. I have a laundry list of reasons why this time it'll be worse than the first time around, but quite a few rather significant reasons why it should be better, too. Let's table that for now, though, and concentrate on the reasons why I am (and for years have been) so certain that we're facing a depression.

[next post]

LL: The Dow was down 89% eventually, but there were several sucker's rallies that lured many back into the market only to have the next leg of the waterfall hit.

Check out the 4 bears graph

Market and GM

Could it be that they are trying to work/starve us to death to solve the Social Security deficit ?

I concur.... CR has been right so far because he hasnt gone to the extreme... I'll find that post by BR on the most successful prognosticators.... (no extremes (a la Jas & Seb))

I am constantly trying to compare CR's views with the consensus views of this board (if there is such a thing).

I've found that CR consistently has been more optimistic than the consensus, but reality has actually fallen somewhere between.

I once thought CR was overly optimistic because it helped to stimulate dialogue. But over time, I think his views are genuine, certainly more reasoned and informed than Krugman's, and based on what he sees and graphs.

You know, when I walk around my neighborhood (a high-end NYC suburb) I just don't see depression. Maybe that's because it's been so rainy lately and the lawns and flowers are so lush.

I see a long, slow, grinding debilitating bottom.

Most of the debts have to get settled before the economy turns up. The pension and entitlement obligations aren't debts in a normal growing economy. But now they are. That's a big difference that most Americans (including maybe CR) still can't see.

[I still think there's a chance they thread the needle and work the debt off with 5+ years of ~10% inflation]

Please explain how that works. THere's a dollar collapse and all those treasuries outstanding that get clobbered, not to mention the trillions/yr of new and rollover funding to accomplish. SWFs will be selling any chance they get. Who steps up to buy?

It's check-mate.

As for the argument of whether Canada is smarter or more conservative or in better shape than the U.S., you can talk it or you can walk it.

If you want to walk it long, go long FXC (like me, at least to parity).

If you want to walk it short, short FXC.

I think the looney will be the strongest of the G7 currencies over the next year.

At least, to parity with the dollar, I mean.

CR dont talk his book.....he's made that very clear he does not want Berzerkers
Lookiing Out My Back Door

CCR FTW

alambka,

Perhaps "worthy" wasn't the right word, but I appreciate your comments nonetheless.

Having the reserve currency is an extravagant privilege. Recycling trade dollars into treasurys is the default option. Anything else means much pain for everyone. I doubt it will be foreign central banks or SWF's that push the dollar over the edge. It will be something that makes in-country buyers skittish. But I'm just guessing.

You're right. It will be forex traders and hedge funds that drive the dollar down, a few beats ahead of bailouts by central banks and sovereign funds.

But what difference does it make?

rich;
"You know, when I walk around my neighborhood (a high-end NYC suburb) I just don't see depression."

That's the thing - I don't see it in my daily life either.

What I do see is everyone's business is slow. I see some of our customers doing layoffs. I see a lot of houses for sale or lease. I see commercial vacancies in the expensive shopping districts, which are very unusual. I see commercial vacancies in low-end shopping districts, which are not unusual. I see companies stretching out payables.

I also see a 0% vacancy rate in my apartments (touch wood), ridiculous traffic, and full restaurants. The gardeners still take care of the shrubs and lawns. It's still difficult to hire competent tradespeople - I had to wait two months to get a crew out to fix some stairs, and they didn't do an acceptable job. It takes two days to get a call in to my CPA. And I don't know anyone who is unemployed and unable to find at least part-time work.

But I can't honestly extrapolate from my personal observations to an opinion about the economy. What I see is all too local, and the local economy is unlike most other places.

hedge funds and forex traders can only speculate on panic, regional panic...
dont jump the gun on bucky....

UK and Sweden are in the crosshairs for the blowup.

In for a Krone in for a Pound.

sm_landlord:

I like the definition of a depression that someone posted here a while ago:

A recession is when the national income statement is ruined.

A depression is when the national balance sheet is ruined.

We are in a depression. Our Balance Sheet is trashed.

All the statistics are useful only to give the two armed economists a false sense of exactitude as they argue with themselves about one hand or the other hand.

We have OFFICIAL 40% unemployment in parts of the California Central Valley.And Dawg's comments on the Cali Government are actually quite moderate.The world's 11th largest economy and an integral part of the USA.Depression here and now? For the rest of the USA,sometime soon.From debt to demographics everyone here is familiar with the arguments.I will only add Exogenous events,the World is not a predictable place and Murphy's Law has not been repealed...strange things can come flying in from left field.Good night all,have a happy 4th !

"You guys travel in better circles then I do."

People are just better/needier at hiding their losses on the coast is all.

Try this thought experiment:

If USA is trying to be ruthless, it can peg USD at 1000:1 for Euro (i.e. 1000 USD for 1 EU). Aggressively, non-negotiable.

What happens?

Immediately, Euro stuff will be prohibitively expensive in USA, similarly USA stuff will be Walmart nice in Euros.

Cost of oil, materials, etc are transient ultimately, and will flow through the system over the mid term. (Short term pain maybe, not ultimately not disastrous) But LABOR COST and GOVT COST immediately yields a competitive advantage.

So USA will earn some EURO forex; which naturally should cause USD to raise and "fix" the 1000:1 ratio. Let's force the system not to correct by buying Euro treasuries; thus widening their trade deficits. Repeat and rinse.

Over time, we'll have massive amounts of Euro treasuries, we'll have a massive employment and Europe will be struggling and wondering why their interest rate is so low. With their interest rate distorted, they'll probably have a housing bubble or some other speculation bubble. (at this point, if the bubble burst, People will blame the "morals" of the European, etc; but I blame the system. You cannot abscond the enabler of bubble any crime and just say the people's at fault.)

Short of a "Smoot Hawley" foreign import tax; there's no way for Europe to escape this peg. But implement one is like using a nuclear bomb economic wise.

bank failure-
you didn't confirm or deny my question.

BTW,

We all knew there'd be a serious recession following a monster housing bubble. The key for me that this was a depression-level event was the fact that homeowner's equity declined even as housing prices soared.

It's one thing to build and then lose phantom equity -- ask Rob Dawg about his million-plus that came and is now steadily leaving.

OTOH, it's another thing altogether to have borrowed all that added equity and then have it evaporate. As they say, "Debt is fact, whereas Equity is a matter of opinion."

By the time we get back to pre-bubble levels homeowners with mortgages will have zero or negative average equity. That's the death knell for any generation's finances, even more so for the boomers who are a demographic bubble in and of themselves.

I can name dozens of other factors that aggravate circumstances (and thus further ensure the inevitable depression), but the key is and has always been debt.

Our office is in the San Francisco financial district. Last year when we renewed our least, the only reason the landlord did it was because of the renewal clause in our lease.

Currently, we are talking with them about moving up 20 floors and taking move space. We have been talking with them since Christmas. We are in a landmark building. There are at least three empty floors that they have shown us.

The contractors and architects are drawing all sorts of floor plans and cost estimates for us on spec. A year ago, they wouldn't have answered our phone calls.

Those folks are hurting and need our job to keep their crews together through the Summer and Fall.

are you the former posters Cracker , and Vozworth

alambka,

Geez, how do you know these things? You have some kind of gift for identifying people by their writing??

Yeah hc.

love that last sentence and that's exactly what crossed my mind as I read it. the nuke.

What do I see where I'm at?

Live in semi-rural area of Central PA, a college town. Not State College, thank you.

What hits me immediately:

1. the number of automobiles and cycles for sale roadside. Passed by a yard sale and they had a sparkling Harley in the front yard to be sold.
2. Upper range housing is slow, but the lower end is moving. Can't give a comparison to previous years but friend in residential RE confirmed the other night that it is moving.
3. the mortgage market is totally effed up. This friend has a self-employed client who wants to buy a upper six-figure home. Tax returns confirms $3M+ income but he can't get financing...
4. An outsize jump in number of homes sold via public auction. Auctioneers are now running multiple listing (8 - 10+ homes) in RE section of Sunday news and I can drive to about six of them within five minutes drive of my home.
5. Local paper confirms that road rage incidents are up and that food banks are in poor shape. Daughter volunteers with local WIC program and they've instituted a fresh produce program during harvest seasons to take the load off of demand for canned goods.
6. Daughter's babysitting biz has dropped off.

Im sorry homedad 43, that was rude of me.

homedad43,

Central PA? Was just out in your neck of the woods recently -- ABE area.

bank failure:

close. 48. but hey, who reads comments anyway?

Old enough to be a grandfather, young enough to help coach little league.

No offense taken.

TJ:

head southeast to Dutch Country.

And final confirmation of what I see...local article in paper about how the plain people/Amish are starting to rethink stance on public assistance. Many have moved into mfg as farm sizes here no longer economically self-supporting and they're now getting hit.

Let me know if you're in the area and I'll take you where the tourists don't know about...

homedad43;

I used to have a vendor in State College. As I remember, a lot of the Amish seemed to be working construction. That must hurt.

homedad43,

I should be out there again at least once more this year, and I'd love to take you up on that offer.

Local press also starting to wake up to pension issue, esp teachers.

PA state law is that teacher pensions (other public as well?) must be fully funded and that all of the state school districts are girding their loins for around 2012, when the local bulge of retiring teachers hits.

TJ, let me know. I can be reached via my homepage.

I'm heading off since the codeine is finally kicking in...

g'night.

the joblessness will make it look and feel like a depression

but the multinational corporations will likely keep gdp above the depression definition level

the recovery... wont be

what the population (not the corporations) will get is...

_
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..........................................___________________
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alambka (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 10:18 pm

and the fight with Rob about water shortages put everything in place

He didn't learn the first time on HHB either.

Norka West:

Interesting strategy your company has regarding building up reserves. Makes sense for the individual company; kills the economy as a whole.

Not to blame you, I'd do the same, but it's easy to see where the economy is headed when sensible companies such as yours pull the plug on spending.

TJ,

Yup. I am trying to figure out positioning for this fall - and getting nervous about getting it done. It would not surprise me a bit to have another really bad October in the markets. But I don't want to go to all cash, because I'm expecting an inflation/devaluation event as well.

Not enough people are taking the Cali problem seriously yet, probably because they remember the last time the state issued IOUs and it all worked out OK. I have no idea how it will go this time, but I expect it to be worse than the early 1990s, because the structural problems are so much worse, and there is no sign that the state government can be fixed.

Can you imagine the initiatives that will be on the be on the next ballot or two? Scorched earth at a minimum.