FDIC Bank Failures by Week

BFF(thurs) is off to a hell_of_a start for July!

Should we call them "FDIC Blue Shoots"?

What about the infamous 19 who have been backstopped to timmy and ben?

yeahhhh, I got on the thread. Couldn't yesterday after getting here. I asked for 3 more oinks and got 4.

Cheer up CR, the worst is yet to come.

FDIC should accelerate the failures by hiring up and training some unemployed former financial sector lackies.

I'm hoping that this is exactly what they are doing anyway.

Save some pizza for me Sheila. I'm sure I'll be next in line with a resumé.

Hey, Byz, I see you are on. Where ya been?

Continued rom the last thread:

Lucifer, the notion of 'regulatory capture' pressuposes a distinction between government and business.

Even 'revolving doors' is a poor analogy to describe the totalitarian American system of governance.

Hannah Arendt has described the spirit perfectly:

"Only the mob and the elite can be attracted by the momentum of totalitarianism itself. The masses have to be won by propaganda."

We are all employees of FDIC now. The last of the middle class who will have jobs for a long long time.

"28 Weeks"? Interesting... Wink

I'd posit that the FDIC is still ramping up to handle greater numbers, and although they may not rival the S&L days in count they will overwhelm it in dollars.

They are in for a surprise when they realize that paying down their debt was a bad idea.


Britons Paid Back Home Loans at Record Pace, BOE Says (Update1)
Britons Paid Back Home Loans at Record Pace, BOE Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

By Svenja O’Donnell

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Britons paid down mortgage debt at a record pace in the first three months of the year as the recession encouraged people to curb borrowing. Individuals added to their housing equity for a fourth quarter, paying in a net 8.1 billion pounds ($13.2 billion), which was the most since records began in 1970. The Bank of England released the data on its Web site in London today.

Did you see my last comment on that thread?

//Lucifer, the notion of 'regulatory capture' pressuposes a distinction between government and business.//

Japan and other countries have prevented lower prices by enforcing MSRP:

Marketing ethics: an international ... - Google Books

The SEC is trying to prop MSRP for stocks.

If they were close to paying it off, then it's a good idea. It was a good idea when we did it; now I hesitate to tell people that, even if they already have lots of equity to burn.

I really appreciate the long-term chart. Too often we focus on only looking a short time history and miss the bigger picture.

Gonna try to log on to earlier threads, if I don't come back, it's because the Merritt Island computer is having a snit.

Those proposed rules will be changed for the benefits of banksters.. just watch


US bank buy-outs get tougher: By Joanna Chung and Francesco Guerrera in New York
FT.com / Companies / Banks - US bank buy-outs get tougher

Published: July 2 2009 20:52 | Last updated: July 3 2009 01:37

Private equity that want to buy troubled banks would have to maintain significant capital levels and promise not to “flip’’ investments for at least three years under proposals by US regulators seeking to attract money into the ailing industry. The proposed rules, which would require private equity companies to maintain a tier one capital ratio of at least 15 per cent – three times what is typically required of other banks – for at least three years, were introduced on Thursday in spite of disagreements among regulators over whether the requirements were too strict.

What happened to green shoots.. supply and demand ..


‘Rogue broker’ blamed for oil spike
FT.com / Companies / Oil & Gas - ‘Rogue broker’ blamed for oil spike

By Javier Blas and Izabella Kaminska in London

Published: July 2 2009 12:07 | Last updated: July 2 2009 20:26

The startling spike in oil prices to their highest level this year on Tuesday was caused by a rogue broker who placed a massive bet in the Brent oil market, triggering almost $10m (€7m) of losses for his company. PVM Oil Associates, the world’s largest over-the-counter oil brokerage, said on Thursday it had been the “victim of unauthorised trading”. The privately owned company said that as a result of the unauthorised trades it had been forced to close substantial volumes of futures contracts at a loss.

lawyerliz,

Get a new laptop and stimulate the economy.

The failure by assets numbers are interesting - looks like WAMU beats the previous records all by itself. It will be interesting to see what the cumulative [edit] ultimately numbers look like. I think the data/curve will be noisier this time, precisely because of the comparatively greater concentration in the market. Not exactly a radical or deep insight!

I think to qualify as a "rogue-trader" the losses have to be in the Billions, sorry.

In case you missed this one.


Schwarzenegger puts case for IOUs
FT.com / US / Politics & Foreign policy - Schwarzenegger puts case for IOUs

By Matthew Garrahan in Los Angeles
Published: July 2 2009 19:41 | Last updated: July 2 2009 21:35

Arnold Schwarzenegger has made a personal overture to the heads of America’s largest banks to persuade them to accept the IOUs being issued by California in lieu of cash. With a budget deficit of more than $24bn, California has started its new financial year deep in the red and has been forced to issue the IOUs because it has run out of money. Mr Schwarzenegger has spoken with the heads of several banks. So far, Bank of America and Wells Fargo have confirmed they will accept the IOUs.

Wow, it really puts in into perspective when you compare it to the S&L crisis.

CR, do you think it will reach or surpass? Maybe not the number in a week but in cum total?

CR:
are you equating S&L closures with bank closures? ... different animal in my mind.
back in the late 80s as you know I handled top 100 commercial banks (corp fixed income research) and
never paid much if any attention to S&Ls, for one, they had a completely different accounting
system - esp how they handled losses to loan portfolio, and politically they were kept alive in DC after de-regulation
in a bi-partisan manner when they should have died a dinosaur death...

CR: This is nothing compared to the S&L crisis.

Yet the current crisis is costing trillions instead of billions.

Think about the losses to entities other than his company.

//I think to qualify as a "rogue-trader" the losses have to be in the Billions, sorry./

$10 million is chicken-feed in the scheme of things nowadays...

(pigged from previous thread):

YTL: welcome to the dark side

thanks Volker.

I haven't been posting much these last few months simply because I am literally speechless half the time.

I've felt for many years (at least since joining CR 2-3 years ago) that this would be a very very rough downturn, and that things would go very poorly. I knew that mama govt would step in and bail out a lot of people. I knew that many firms would make record profits and that they would say "waaah... government is always the problem... waaaah government can't do anything right". I knew that a lot of this garbage would get dumped onto Fannie and Freddie and that they would collapse.

what I WASN'T expecting was that almost all govt support would go directly to the financial elite in a Frankenstonian version of trickle down economics. I was not expecting such a blatant takeover of our govt by Goldman Sachs, with nary a peep from the peanut gallery. I was not expecting full zombification of our banking sector while still allowing record bonuses/pay packages.

I can almost stomach a completely nationalized financial system run by our politburo superiors. almost.

what I can't stand is this puppethead government whose strings are being pulled overtly by a soul less financial system that continues to suck off the taxpayer like the bloated fetid putrid pustular pimple that it is.

aacck.

What happened to the 'free market' and the 'wisdom of the marketplace'


Recovering ABS may relapse if TALF support pulled
Recovering ABS may relapse if TALF support pulled
| Reuters

Thu Jul 2, 2009 9:25pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve jolted the U.S. asset-backed securities market back to life this year, after a crippling credit crisis threatened to shut it down, but despite a major recovery not many are convinced the market is prepared to stand on its own.

Couldn't get on to the previous thread.

But it let me back here.

I'm all for ratios being low, 'n' all, but why should one class of investor be
treated differently than another, Luci.

Is there a way to compare failures by bank assets vs. number of banks to get a better comparison?

bloated fetid putrid pustular pimple --- wow, couldn't have said it better.

Lucifer (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 11:12 am

What happened to the 'free market' and the 'wisdom of the marketplace'

We got an outcome we didn't like.

If they were close to paying it off, then it's a good idea. It was a good idea when we did it; now I hesitate to tell people that, even if they already have lots of equity to burn.

UK mortgage debt is a recourse loan, jingle mail is not an option as the difference from sale price to loan(plus bloated expenses) is recoverable for 7 years

Itried to click on Byz's pigged comment and it wouldn't post.

Paying it off faster is a different kettle of fish from just making payments when due.

I wonder if they actually go after the people in GB for the difference?

I was not expecting full zombification of our banking sector while still allowing record bonuses/pay packages.

My favorite excuse is that the bonuses/salaries are justified to protect the government's equity in the company...

I'm all for ratios being low, 'n' all, but why should one class of investor be
treated differently than another, Luci.

liz: I'm assuming you're talking about the different requirements for PE compared to banks for bank buy-out purposes?

if so, the rationale is partly that PE firms have a different type of business with different accounting and also higher volatility and risk..

FDIC doesn't want to sell a bank to a PE only to have pop back in 1 year due to the PE

FDIC is about banking stability. PE in general is thought to be less stable than banking.

that of course is in the old days before banks went crazy, but there it is.

volker the viking

two threads down you made the claim that government has never created a job

" volker the viking (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 5:50 am

Government has not created a single job. Not once, not ever. Government exists for its own purpose and that purpose runs counter to liberty and the pursuit of happiness. "


i strongly disagree

government has historically been a huge job creator

taxes like investors who start up a company, put people to work to produce a good or service

the nasa space program, the building of grand coolee dam and the interstate highway system are just a few examples of government creation of jobs

one may argue government shouldnt do some of these things,

one may argue that government often does not creat jobs as efficiently as the private sector

but to deny gov creates jobs is not supported by history

Imagine being in California around 1,100 a.d. in the midst of climate change in the guise of a 100 year drought?

There were no cars, no gas, no coal, no factories and no indiustry and hardly any people (perhaps 100,000 indians?) in the Golden State @ the time.

There was nothing the indians could do (nor could we) in the face of what was happening, other than to adapt to changing conditions, which is what we need to do.

My fav is that it is to prevent a brain drain!

Maybe FFDIC went back to FDIC and feels he can't comment.

BFPPP

I like it.
thanks Liz, you made my day.

Juvie: Never underestimate the number of people here in any particular
place before Columbus. The Post Columbian die-off was staggering.

See 1491.

calvinball?

//We got an outcome we didn't like//

Paying it off faster is a different kettle of fish from just making payments when due.

I wonder if they actually go after the people in GB for the difference?

Yes they do plus all expenses are thrown in and interest from the original default. They can chase for 7 years and even declare you bankrupt.

I hope soylent green has a few more of those hikau's ready
Smile

Byzantine_Ruins,

But won't burning witches and heretics please the god of climate? I read about your meso-american example, and that is what we are trying to do- for both CC and the current crisis of financialism.

lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 3:23 pm
My fav is that it is to prevent a brain drain!

Brain drain is always a danger in a zombie economy.

liz,

Most aboriginal Americans passed away from our various diseases...

About 90% of the 2,000 indians that lived here for around 1,000 years passed away from Measles in the 1860's, as they had no immunity to something that lays us down for a few days when we are young, but seldom kills us.

Have you heard of "Ghost Dances"?

They were 5 day-long continual dances put on by the indians, trying to conjure back all those that passed away en masse.

Charles kiting

you argued last night that the life span of europeans exceeded usa only because of the greater infant mortality in the usa

can you give me a link on that?

if true, how is that a negative for single payer, universal health care?

Why don't the FDIC employee's give CR a shout out? We know that you are reading this site. Come on, tell us what you're up to! Your secrets are safe here.

What about the infamous 19 who have been backstopped to timmy and ben?

What, you expect honest counting?

The 19 hijackers get a pass, because they already hit up the ATM (Automatic TARP Machine)

government has historically been a huge job creator

I agree with mock on this one for 2 reasons.

1) when one states an absolutist argument like this : Government has not created a single job. Not once, not ever. Government exists for its own purpose and that purpose runs counter to liberty and the pursuit of happiness. then clearly the author is either using hyperbole or is being somewhat dogmatic to a specific ideology. there are very few things in life that are that absolute. including government creating/not creating jobs.
thus, this type of argument is bound to fail, as one must only find one counter example to destroy the argument.
My guess is that Volker is using a little bit of free market ideology with a little bit of hyperbole, not to put words in his mouth (although I just did).

2) there are some areas that may not be achievable in the private space, and are more effectively done by government. highest on this list are areas that require intensive amounts of research and development.
I'll use the internet as example. it is possible but less likely that a single private source would have had the wherewithal to create the internet. Significant governmental dollars/support helped this to happen. without that govt support, there may not have ever been an internet (or perhaps there would have but it would have taken far far far longer). the internet clearly created many jobs and increased productivity.

the same occurs in the hard sciences areas including big pharma. sure, they run a lot of their own tests... but much/most of the cutting edge stuff is govt funded.

Now perhaps Volker would argue that these jobs would have been created by the private space anyway in due time... but I'm not sure about this. being a private corporation adds limitations (chiefly profit) that the government may or may not need to adhere to. And many of the most important discoveries in science/tech have been accidental, and a profit source was only found LATER by the private space.

in my younger days I was very involved in medical hard science (I was a researcher in a lab that basically helped to identify and classify hematopoeitic stem cells) so I have some insight here. In my opinion, it is doubtful that any corporation could get big enough to tackle the first waves of science needed for research and development in much of this space. sure, once things are discovered by the public space (universities, govt labs, dept of defense labs, etc) it can be modified for commercial purposes... but the dollar input is massive and of huge risk.

a hybrid system really works well. one focused on "advancement of science" whatever that means, and one focused on profits.

this hybrid system brings synergies which I believe is a net job creator.

So far, Bank of America and Wells Fargo have confirmed they will accept the IOUs.

Just what they want - more level 3 assets.

Orwell's Fargo accepting IOU's?

How can that not be double-plus-good in the scheme of things?

overseas markets don't seem quite as concerned...

JD wrote "There was nothing the indians could do (nor could we) in the face of what was happening, other than to adapt to changing conditions, which is what we need to do."


true...they didnt have satellites orbiting the planet, nor super computers

and they didnt sample ignition exhaust for particulate matter and products of combustion compounds

guess I need to go back into the shop and make a new Bernanke vid mash-up... shocked I could get as many hits as I did for BB?
maybe he has star qualities we just can't see? or maybe it was that damned monkey!
for anyone that missed it : YouTube - No Country for Old Ben: Javier Bardem Tells Bernanke he's a Fool!
....
have new footage of Ben, plus lots of marching ducks this time... smells like a winner

TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 11:20 am

Byz,

Great CC rant!

No problem. It's kinda funny, because I am sure some people are like "oh you right wing maniac you," when I'm actually quite green, and every quite extreme. If they wanted to draw straws and only pass out reproduction licenses to 10% of the population, I'd be fine with that as long as it was random draw, there really are very many too many monkeys on the rock.

But... my concern over the well-being of our ecosystem does not mean that I think we are mentally or scientifically equipped to jimmy the global thermostat. It seems to me that a major go at this is likely to produce the same kind of "solution" that built housing projects in the 1960s and early 70s. Great intentions, but oops, bad assumptions. The problem will be, rather than ruining a generation of poor, we'll kill millions or billions by blowing up the climate system or enforcing privation needlessly.

What people are talking about is terraforming our sole planet of residence as our first experiment in the subject. I'm concerned we'll find out, ha ha, our modern version of "rain follows the plow" will be just as much of a tragic misapprehension. Alas, by the time we do, it'll take generations to get the entrenched power structures built around these global scale policies to recognize and alter their policy choices, and even then we'll only see incremental change from what's established.

People should ask themselves, do they want to see something as insanely destructive and totally convinced of their own holy purpose as the American prison industry or education lobby spring up to implement a global climate policy that is almost certain to be proven wholly or partly wrong. If someone really shows up with the spreadsheet of "here's the mechanism, here's the cost per temperature increment of unremediated change, here's the remediation cost, see the size of the savings, here's the ways we have tested it and here's the ways we can test it in an ongoing fashion moving forward" then I'm tentatively for it, but as I said, I find the desire to "do something" to be heart-warming, but the willingness to do something without knowing what the hell we're actually doing to be bone-chilling.

Byz:
If we don't try and "solve" the cc situation, we will not have created the space for the alternative energy bubble we so desperately need.

YTL

true and thee history of the grand coolee dam is a case in point

private investors and local farmers tried several time to build a dam at this location on the columbia but could never get the project off the ground

like the space program or the building of the pyramids

it took a herculean effort from an entire society to amass the resources necessary for such a grand project

some things...not all.. are best done by "we the people"

Government jobs have their place, problem is they require taxes to support and the jobs provide just a partial recirculation of taxes. Private jobs produce taxable products along with a lot of tax revenue to state local and fed coffers. The real value is private jobs, government jobs are more of a major drain. This is why the economy will not respond and drag out the recession.

If the government doesn't create dams in the PNW in the 1930's, with the ability to create a tremendous amount of hydroelectricity, Boeing would have had real problems finding enough juice to smelt all the aluminum needed to make planes, and who knows how WW2 would have turned out?

you argued last night that the life span of europeans exceeded usa only because of the greater infant mortality in the usa
can you give me a link on that? if true, how is that a negative for single payer, universal health care?

mock, I didn't see your conversation with charles kiting about mortality rates, but I'd like to make a few cautionary remarks nonetheless.

1) you must remember that different countries compile mortality statistics differently. This changes the data SIGNIFICANTLY.
some countries have limitations on what they will call a "live birth" which then leads to "infant mortality"

an example:
in the US, we routinely deliver and care for fetuses/infants born at 23 weeks gestation (6 months). we even sometimes go down to 22 weeks. fetuses/newborns are not viable without extensive medical intervention at these ages.

If we deliver a 23 week infant we call that a "live birth". 23 week infants have very high infant mortality rates for reasons I won't go into.
thus, later when that 23 week infant dies, we call it "infant mortality" and then it also counts as part of "average life span"

in other countries (yes even many western countries), they do not resuscitate 23 week infants. So if a woman delivers at that time it is called a "still birth" which counts under "fetal mortality" and NOT 'infant mortality' and then it does NOT count as part of "average life span"

2) I don't know that this will relate to single payer one way or another. it is not y et clear.
we clearly need to "ration" health care. the rationing can come either from mama govt or through private enterprise (ever had a prescription turned down by your insurance company? that's rationing!)

my guess is that if we socialized then we would see less coverage for some of the very high cost low outcome diseases.... like terminal lung cancer and 22 week premature infants.

Next war we can order our planes tanks and guns from Hyundai and if we lose the war they will take them back with out a blemish on our credit score!

Byzatine Ruins wrote just above
But... my concern over the well-being of our ecosystem does not mean that I think we are mentally or scientifically equipped to jimmy the global thermostat. It seems to me that a major go at this is likely to produce the same kind of "solution" that built housing projects in the 1960s and early 70s. Great intentions, but oops, bad assumptions....What people are talking about is terraforming our sole planet of residence as our first experiment in the subject."


isnt that what we are doing already??? pumping 6 thousand million tons of CO2 into the air each year

doing nothing in the face of mounting evidence is an even bigger risk and a more frankenstienian experiment

besides whats wrong with building safe nuclear power plants, solar, wind etc and cutting way back on the importation of foreign oil which accounts for nearly half our current account deficit

Dollars, CR, dollars. But, this one looks like insignificant compared to the S&L crisis based on the charts you provided.

mock turtle (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 11:47 am

YTL

true and thee history of the grand coolee dam is a case in point

private investors and local farmers tried several time to build a dam at this location on the columbia but could never get the project off the ground

like the space program or the building of the pyramids

it took a herculean effort from an entire society to amass the resources necessary for such a grand project

some things...not all.. are best done by "we the people"

I would be careful choosing my examples. Building the pyramids bankrupted an empire so that one person could have a grand tomb. The space program got to the moon and died there, and smothered private space exploration for decades. Giant dam projects generate power for a comparatively short period of time while inflicting massive ecological damage -- it's just that the silting-up and the dead ecosystems happen on a longer scale than the photogenic bulldozer and cement-pouring phase.

Not that I am adverse to government flood control, or government research, or public works, but the kind of monumental projects you're talking about are often cited as the worst things about centralized planning: socialization of costs for massive private hobby-horses, smothering entire fields of endeavor because the state hasn't gotten done exercising its monopoly and never shall, undertaking projects with massive forward consequences while being concerned only with the immediate-term scope.

Centralization leads to humanity confronting one of its worst weaknesses, which is its tendency to embrace capability without undue concern about consequences.

evidence of what? what is your timeline?

doing nothing in the face of mounting evidence is an even bigger risk and a more frankenstienian experiment

Byz, as you've been byzzy, did you happen to see . . .

Among the many reasons President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority are so intent on quickly jamming a cap-and-trade system through Congress is because the global warming tide is again shifting. It turns out Al Gore and the United Nations (with an assist from the media), did a little too vociferous a job smearing anyone who disagreed with them as "deniers." The backlash has brought the scientific debate roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan and even, if less reported, the U.S.

Despite the "reasons . . . is because" syntax meltdown, not a bad read.

The Climate Change Climate Change - WSJ.com

trying to follow here... 'CC' rant? where was that?

Have you ever considered that the pyramids were a work program?

There were at least 3 dynasties that built large pyramids.. 4th, 5th and 6th.. over 300 years! The US has been around for less than that.

//Building the pyramids bankrupted an empire so that one person could have a grand tomb.//

Lucifer,
Angkor Wat wasn't exactly a walk in the park... check the latest Nat Geo for the trendiest theory on the Khmer's demise

YTL

thanks for the lucid argument regarding infant mortality...i see your point

as for the issue of universal health care

i recall the EU pays an average of between 2 or 3 k dollars per person per year

and here in the good ole USA we pay more than twice that

btw the private insurance industry eats up 5 times the amount of health care dollars in administrative costs as does the public sector (medicare...tri-care etc)

my solution is let the people choose...run a public and private health care system side by side...competition

let those who want and / or can afford, layer premium coverage on tho of a basic public health care system

Are our pyramid schemes all that different than those of the ancient Egyptians?

They tend to benefit just a few people, who profit enough to be able to afford a grand tomb

Recovering ABS may relapse if TALF support pulled
| Reuters

Somebody linked this article earlier on calls for the Fed to extend TALF support of ABS past Dec 31st. This is worth reading as it illustrates the problem the Fed is going to have pulling back these "temporary liquidity measures". The Fed will be THE key player in a lot of debt markets for the foreseeable future. Making those markets all the more subject to calvinball rule changes.

IN USSA CALVINBALL RULE YOU!

C

We know he was right because? He had no personal agenda to promote?

//check the latest Nat Geo for the trendiest theory on the Khmer's demise//

Yeah, Chainsaw, it's becoming the Tar Baby Lending Facility (TBLF). Apologies to Joel Chandler Harris.

Yearning to Learn,

That is all fine, but what is the numerical effect on lifespan! If the effect is a week or less.. it is worthless.

//you must remember that different countries compile mortality statistics differently. //

So easy to provide support in a blind panic, so hard to get that support out of the market.
The Fed will be wrapping up the last support programs in about ten years or so.

Mark my words, if NNT is right, we will be debating the impacts of the Velvet Fist of Government for years here, and get some new alphabet soup.

Meanwhile, here in Arizona, the Republican fiddle as the budget burns;-}

Someday this war's gonna end...

But seriously, Chainsaw has an excellent point, not least also that the calvinball starts before the programs are even formally initiated. Here's another version, per bloomie, alt headline "PPIP In Not Dead Shocker!"

Treasury’s Distressed Debt Plan Said to Begin With $20 Billion - Bloomberg.com

C

Lucifer (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 8:58 am

evidence of what? what is your timeline?


my timeline is 1/4 of a million years, oxygen isotopes in greenland ice cap cores

so tell me

Lucifer...what would you accept as convincing evidence that humans pumping 6 trillion tons of CO2 into the air each year is having an effect on climate...what?

mock turtle (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 11:57 am

isnt that what we are doing already??? pumping 6 thousand million tons of CO2 into the air each year

doing nothing in the face of mounting evidence is an even bigger risk and a more frankenstienian experiment

Shock doctrine, pure and simple. step 1, Name a staggering number or terrifying fact, step 2, wave hands, step 3, do what I say.

You are having a totally simian response. Something went wrong, so you are freaking out and trying this, that and the other thing. It's called "overcontrol" or "chasing the needle" and is an awesome way to crash a plane. It doesn't work any better for other complex systems either.

Sorry, the "bigger", "more frankenstinian" experiment is developing a new policy in a state of hysteria and trying to ramrod it into place during the panic. Admit it or not, it's the Axis of Evil / War on Terror approach to policy and no, like you though I do, I'm not going to endorse it. And once you've gotten a response in place, you'll have your reputation invested and the credulous observer convinced of a one-sided version of the argument, and you'll have the modern version of Keynesian economics, where you spend in good times to enhance growth, and spend in bad times to offset downturns, and otherwise walk around with a hammer in search of a nail.

Seriously, look around you. Really. Do you see a social-government structure capable of meeting this challenge rationally and responsibly? I sure don't. You're gonna be really earnest and really well-intentioned, and you're going to kill millions or billions and be all like "oops, my bad, how was I to know the sun would keep coming up even if we didn't feed it blood, it's not like we could stop feeding it blood and see what happened."

"Meanwhile, here in Arizona, the Republican fiddle as the budget burns;-}"

Chin up Arizonans...

You can now take a concealed gun into any watering hole your heart desires

Lucifer,
long term life expectancy is still nil past 125.
So who cares? One can even contemplate universal health care as a welfare program keeping all of the undereducated masses employed as bed pan emptiers to the boomers.

I am sure folks are so excited at that prospect!

Someday this war's gonna end...

I think many egyptians benefited from building them.. it was the biggest source of income in the agriculatural off-season

//They tend to benefit just a few people, who profit enough to be able to afford a grand tomb//

Try 6 million years.

//my timeline is 1/4 of a million years, oxygen isotopes in greenland ice cap cores//

(I think the person who stated this was Byzyantine, apologies if misquoted:)
"There was nothing the indians could do (nor could we) in the face of what was happening, other than to adapt to changing conditions, which is what we need to do."

do you mean there was nothing we could do for THEIR situation back then? or nothing we could do for OUR current situation?

I would strongly argue against the idea that "there is nothing we can do".

I would instead state: "It is unclear if there is something that humans can do." perhaps we CAN do something, perhaps we CAN'T.
it is not clear to me that there's nothing we can do for our situation just because you say so.
this is the exact same as his argument where you said (Paraphrased): people saying that we CAN do X,Y, or Z doesn't convince me that doing X,Y, or Z will help.

the ozone fiasco would seem to counter your argument, unless you feel it was all coincidental.
we clearly had/have an ozone issue
it did seem to be related to human activity
human activity was changed
the rate of ozone depletion seems to be slowing and maybe even reversing (but the ozone hole is not yet "shrinking")

is that not showing that humans can indeed have an impact and that they can indeed do something? or do you think it was all coincidental?

(it is always possible that it was coincidental of course)

Later Byz said: What people are talking about is terraforming our sole planet of residence as our first experiment in the subject

I'd also argue strongly against the idea that removing human stressors is "terraforming"
usually I think of terraforming to mean "changing the earth to suit a human's needs"
but what is usually proposed is to LIMIT the humans from changing the earth

thus what is being proposed by the global warming "propogandists" is ANTI-terraforming.

and it isn't our first experiment. you could easily argue that the Ozone situation was our first experiment.

Lucifer,
personal agenda? the study group behind the theory? don't know, haven't really tried to see the weaknesses in the arguments, yet...
if I am able to at all... usually, I don't think much of what I read in Nat Geo unless said copy is given to me by a person driving a UNDP black SUV,
then I know it's legit.

Citizen AllenM,

That could be changed far more easily that you realize.

//long term life expectancy is still nil past 125.//

Juvenal- note the Gov has not signed anything that the idiot legislature sent her except the crippled budget.

On Monday, the leg is back to find that all of the conservative wet dream issues are sitting on her desk with a veto stamp poised over them.

What I find funny is the little dictators of the legislature just don't seem to understand the power of the gov- she now has all the cards.

What pisses me off is this could have been done back in April- the late June grandstanding just pisses off the voters needlessly.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Come on FDIC! I think you are punk'n out on this. With a little more effort you can beat the old record. This is the USA and we are world beaters!

We've celebrated people turning 100, because in the past it's been hard to do, with all the diseases and such...

But imagine if it becomes much more common for Baby Boomers to make it to the century mark?

That's gonna throw a spanner in the works~

Duke of Con Dao,

In the past, experts believed that

1] The sun would burn out in a few thousand years. (Kelvin)

2] controlled heavier than air flight was not possible. (Kelvin and many others)

3] Blacks could never be good heavy weight boxers. (ever heard of the concept of "great white hope" and jack johnson)

4] Atoms could not be fissioned on demand and in a controlled fashion.

They were all WRONG.. "Experts" have a history of being almost always wrong!

Lucifer, if that came to pass, the rich part of the world would have to bail out into space pronto.
Six billion having mucho kids even with just small proportion living for a thousand years would be dang near suicidal, especially as the masses realized their masters got to live forever.

Well, I guess we have the inside track on terraforming Mars- if you live a thousand years, what's a 100 year project?

Someday this war's gonna end...

Experts are almost always a good sell for political purpose.

More miscellany:

Tokyo Stock Exchange lowest volume in 4 months: http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/tnks/marketlive.aspx

ECB in cruise control. Pound crisis brewing. Sweden's CB tries negative wholesale rates (viz last night's thread). Monkey business with Austrian CB and eastern europe exposure. Equities look lousy in most regions, and where positive are now inciting top talk and selloffs.

Doesn't look that great. And anyone know why the 10yr and 30yr bonds got a chunky bounce to round up early this morning?

C

Byzatine Ruins

im not trying to use the "shock doctrine"

and by the way the author who popularized that theory is a "greener"

im trying to appeal to you intelligence

if using an accurate measurable verifiablke number to indicate the quantity of CO2 being pumped into the air is not part of a rational debate than we are in bigger trouble than even i supposed

but hey, i get it

for those who do not believe humans are having a negative impact on the planet with our production of chemicals, whether carcinogens or green house gases...nothing will be sufficient proof

i can see it now

50 years ahead CO2 levels in the atmosphere twice as high

all the ice caps gone

NYC, the netherlands, bangladesh underwater

and those on the right will still argue that burning organic matter had nothing to do with it

there are so many parallels between the impending financial crisis and and the impending environmental crisis...many claimed, there was no problem,,,many claimed we cant do anything about it

Citizen AllenM,

we will have to do that anyway. But it won't be the west that will do that.. The west has become too full of itself, to consumed by self delusional fantasies.. just like asian countries were a 1,000 years ago.

///Lucifer, if that came to pass, the rich part of the world would have to bail out into space pronto.//

Burnside,

Thanks for the pointer!

Conjure Colostomy Bag (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 12:00 pm

trying to follow here... 'CC' rant? where was that?

Back one thread.

Comment by Byzantine_Ruins from thread 'SEC may Reinstate Uptick Rule for Short Selling'

We started adding people like mad to this good Earth once we entered the Industrial Age, when there were around 700 million of us hanging around, and now we have 9x as many folks, and it looks like the Industrial Age is kaput.

Linearization?

//50 years ahead CO2 levels in the atmosphere twice as high//

Mock, thanks for raising the financial crisis parallel re climate change. Very apt. People like Byz sound an awful lot David Lereah a few years ago.

Pyramid trivia:

The current guess is that pyramid construction proceeded during the months of Nile flooding, keeping an otherwise idle agricultural work force occupied and out of mischief. Good for dynastic stability. The nice tomb was just there to make future J6Ps see red.

Man ate the fruit of knowledge and had to leave the garden of eden.. sounds familiar?

//We started adding people like mad to this good Earth once we entered the Industrial Age//

If WFC and BAC are accepting the IOU's, and we the people are backing these two banks, aren't we backing the IOU's?

Byz: You are having a totally simian response. Something went wrong, so you are freaking out and trying this, that and the other thing. It's called "overcontrol" or "chasing the needle" and is an awesome way to crash a plane. It doesn't work any better for other complex systems either. (edit: add italics)

Mr. Ruins: Why are you conflating terraforming with basic climate science?

I don't know any/many actual climate scientists who think terraforming is a good idea.

Has anyone here read any climate papers, anywhere, ever?

All I see is people doing basic geoscience.

Perhaps you don't like the political framework growing out of an increasingly accurate body of work?

.....that first one looks like a "global warming" chart.

Heck, lets make the numbers across the bottom "centuries", and the scale on the left "degrees". Yep, global warming is a problem. And then, by moving the thermometers back out to the country and re-taking the reading, it's solved. Whew, that was easy.

If only our leaders were that clever.

//The current guess is that pyramid construction proceeded during the months of Nile flooding, keeping an otherwise idle agricultural work force occupied and out of mischief. Good for dynastic stability. The nice tomb was just there to make future J6Ps see red.//

The difference between the financial crisis and climate change being, that the former is fantasy thought of as real, and the later is real thought of as fantasy.

Start predicting something that can be measured.. then we will call it "science".

//basic climate science//

Juvenal Delinquent,

Both depend on untested and gerrymandered mathematical models of the future..

They're called thermometers, Lucifer.

mock turtle,
perhaps you're right and certain areas will be underwater...
and then again the oceans might find a strong surge in re-population
of its fish stocks...

Yearning to Learn,
That is all fine, but what is the numerical effect on lifespan! If the effect is a week or less.. it is worthless.

//you must remember that different countries compile mortality statistics differently. //

I don't know if the effect is a week or less, and neither do you.

My point is not to argue that Americans do or do not have higher/lower lifespans than those in other countries. Instead it is to tell you that you must be careful with analysis of some of these lifespans because the data is collected differently.
infant mortality is even more difficult to compare cross country due to the definition of "fetus" and "infant"

some data sets EXCLUDE infant mortality from overall lifespan measurements as example. Some don't.

You really need to dig into the SPECIFIC data (and not just the headline number) to understand this stuff.

having been on CR for some time you know that I speak the truth.

Do you blindly act on the Bloomberg/NAR headline in July that states: "house prices and sales are increasing month over month, signalling a bottom!"
of course not, you realize that it is important to look at the actual data (SA vs NSA, mom vs yoy etc) to get an accurate picture.

====

That said, I've been of the opinion for nearing a decade that we WILL get single payer healthcare whether or not we like it.
I also think that it is a much more efficient system (BY FAR) than the private mess that we have now
there is also little question in my mind that the care can be delivered far more cheaply than it can be done in the private sector, due to decreased costs.

I'm 100% for single payer with supplemental voluntary private insurance

however I also know that most Americans are going to be disappointed with single payer.
"what do you mean I can't get an orthopedic surgery evaluation for my bruised pinky toe within one hour! I'm an AMERICAN! I need an MRI stat on my pinky hangnail".

I've said this before: but the #1 diagnosis for our orthopedic surgeons 3 years ago was sprained ankle.
why pay a family practice doc $160k/year and no test to diagnose sprained ankles when you can pay an orthopedic surgeon $350k/year and get a $600 MRI to do the same thing?

why pay "bloated" govt workers to do your health insurance when you can pay the executive staff at UHG $200 million per year to do it?

the private system of the US is filled with waste.

lucifer wrote (as he has done frequently before)

"They were all WRONG.. "Experts" have a history of being almost always wrong!"


ah i see, .you dont believe in scientific advancement

when you are sick you see a witch doctor

and magic 8 balls are just as accurate in performing complex calculations as computers

and their are no experts...newtonian mechanics and palmistry are on the same plane

so all the technology we employ as a society is just dumb luck and happenstance

ants are about to invent new medical technologies and launch inter stellar space probes at any moment

good night

you argued last night that the life span of europeans exceeded usa only because of the greater infant mortality in the usa

can you give me a link on that?

if true, how is that a negative for single payer, universal health care?

I'm sorry, I said infant mortality when I meant live births. A newborn that lives for two seconds is counted as a live birth (and issued a certificate) in the US, in some European couintries the certificate isn't issued if the newborn dies withn 24 hours and isn't counted.

US life span is also decreased by our higher murder/manslaughter rate (thanks to the Nixon/Reagan War On Drugs) and by our incessant needs to send troops to get killed in foreign countries, capital punishment, etc.

My point is that government life expectancy numbers have a lot more involved in them than simply the quality of the health care system.

you argued last night that the life span of europeans exceeded usa only because of the greater infant mortality in the usa

can you give me a link on that?

if true, how is that a negative for single payer, universal health care?

I'm sorry, I said infant mortality when I meant live births. A newborn that lives for two seconds is counted as a live birth (and issued a certificate) in the US, in some European couintries the certificate isn't issued if the newborn dies withn 24 hours and isn't counted.

US life span is also decreased by our higher murder/manslaughter rate (thanks to the Nixon/Reagan War On Drugs) and by our incessant needs to send troops to get killed in foreign countries, capital punishment, etc.

My point is that government life expectancy numbers have a lot more involved in them than simply the quality of the health care system.

Yearning to Learn: I'm 100% for single payer with supplemental voluntary private insurance

Sign me up. Or do we have to wait until health care is 25% of GDP?

Actually, given the demographics, perhaps this is the next bubble.

40 year mortgages on titanium hips?

Yes, and we use the same ones that were used a 100 years ago.. same weather stations, same sampling techniques... right?

//They're called thermometers, Lucifer.//

I don't know if they actually go after them, but legally they can, as they can in most of the other European states I know a bit about. Having said that, I admit IANAL. I always enjoy your comments.

If you think real estate investors in Florida are underwater now, just wait until we call it Flatlantis...

You are deliberately conflating what can be measured and tested with what cannot be measured and tested.

//and magic 8 balls are just as accurate in performing complex calculations as computers
and their are no experts...newtonian mechanics and palmistry are on the same plane//

You include "capital punishment" as a "statistic mover"?

It stands to reason if we have Government health care the amount of health care GDP will rise.

Really!... But your previous statements (from yesterday) suggest otherwise.

//My point is that government life expectancy numbers have a lot more involved in them than simply the quality of the health care system.//

Anyone remember Brian Deese, assistant undersecretary to the janitor's mop squeezer for auto industry restructuring? Turns our he's committing a political faux pas, namely driving a Honda, and an actual offense by doing so, namely not changing his CT plates over... Ah rules, so harsh are thee for little people.

The Sleuth
- New Car Czar Deese Doesn't Drive American

c

Duke,

Since humans eat so much fish it's only fitting that we feed them. I would say start with every convicted murderer, rapist and child molester. Then for sporting purposes we could troll wall street bankers and lobbyist in shark infested waters with a great chum line..

For your viewing pleasure, Terminal lacunae of the Intertubez:

  • Teh Warming Is a Communist Conspiracy
  • You are Teh Hilter
  • ALL EXPERTS ARE ALWAYS WRONG!!!!!
  • Lucifer is extremely suave and very intelligent and always correct
  • Kennedy anything
  • Clinton anything
  • anything with helicopter blades or sounds
  • 9/11
  • Global Wierding

my guess is that if we socialized then we would see less coverage for some of the very high cost low outcome diseases.... like terminal lung cancer and 22 week premature infants.

YTL, thanks. Didn;t see your post until I replied.

Whenever the government sees its measurements producing results they don't like, they change the measurements. Unemployment is the prime example - they report U6 but they never mention it in the summaries most news outlets skim.

Byzantine-

Just read your post re the environmental politics on the last thread. Great post.

SD

"It stands to reason if we have Government health care the amount of health care GDP will rise. "

Why? Give me proof. I see a lot of assertations on on government health-care being thrown around based on no solid facts.

You might want to change that line to "I think" rather than "It stands to reason" given that you don't actually have any proof.

Our every sperm is sacred society took a mammoth hit when octomom did her thing, and people realized that quality is much more important than quantity...

Lucifer

i challenge you to provide evidence that the O2 isotope samples from greenland ice-cores dating back over 250k years are gerrymandered data

the scientific community is better than most (NOT PERFECT) at peer review and weeding out false data and bad theories

are you really so paranoid as to think that the vast majority of earth scientist are conspiring to lie to you and pick your pocket??

wake up , human beings are reaching and exceeding the current carrying capacity of the planet unless we either limit population OR invest in new technologies

.........You want to put the FedGov in charge of everyone's health? OK. How about I compromise with "I want the same healthcare plan as the House of Representatives and US Senate", or better yet, they can have the same care as I.

Reason is not fact. The point is if people do not have care now then there is demand. If they have free care then they will use it with out regard upping required services. The only alternative for this action is to limit care. The whole health care issue is political control.

mock turtle (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 12:19 pm

im not trying to use the "shock doctrine"
and by the way the author who popularized that theory is a "greener"

I like Naomi Klein's illustration of this policy mechanism. I am not trying to make myself attractive to her as a potential date / mate. As I said, I am in fact quite green too but probably not in the same way.

im trying to appeal to you intelligence

Thus flattering me if I agree (this is what a "reasonable" / "intelligent" person would say) and making me "unintelligent" if i disagree.

if using an accurate measurable verifiablke number to indicate the quantity of CO2 being pumped into the air is not part of a rational debate than we are in bigger trouble than even i supposed

It's a figure. My problem is not with any particular figure, it is with the fact that you do not have a real understanding of how the global climate works as a holistic system. Yes, we are doing terrible things to the planet with our industrial waste and our overpopulation. In fact, I think I have made it clear i think the human race is headed for a massive die-off.

No, I am not going to endorse some concerted global policy regime to "fix" it or even addle-pated patches like cap-and-trade.

but hey, i get it

for those who do not believe humans are having a negative impact on the planet with our production of chemicals, whether carcinogens or green house gases...nothing will be sufficient proof

i can see it now

50 years ahead CO2 levels in the atmosphere twice as high

That's right, I'll never understand the threat of Islamic terror. Not until there is a mushroom cloud over an American city. Clearly, the evidence of 9/11 is not enough for the willfully blind. We should all get our daughters ready for life under sharia law. The left learned entirely the wrong lesson from the Bushite scum.

NYC, the netherlands, bangladesh underwater

And other places warmer and more habitable than they are now. Are you going to compensate the Siberians and Canadians for their diminished economic prospects under your proposed regime? Ice-out on the north pole is going to lend fantastic economic impetus to the northern regions of Canada and Russia. Why are you crying for Bangladesh, and not rejoicing for Russia? Because you want to convince me.

and those on the right will still argue that burning organic matter had nothing to do with it

Ah, and of course, those who disagree with you are rightist scum.

there are so many parallels between the impending financial crisis and and the impending environmental crisis...many claimed, there was no problem,,,many claimed we cant do anything about it

That's the great thing about rhetoric. It does what an able hand commands it to. I can likewise draw a parallel between mortgage securities and cap-and-trade, about making marketplaces for the sake of enriching speculators out of things that make up the fundamental economic underpinnings of a society. Hey, let's subject another key component of the culture to the market mechanism, because housing and energy weren't enough. Or we can talk about failed "public goods" of the past like housing projects that destroyed communities or flood control / swamp draining programs that destroyed ecosystems.

"Yes, and we use the same ones that were used a 100 years ago.. same weather stations, same sampling techniques... right?'

Ah, I see what you're driving at...No, climate scientists have never considered the possibility of measurement discrepancies, nor the statistical means to correct them. It's all part of their devious plot to serve the "coastal elites." They've even duped the Micronesians into going along with them. Or are they part of the cabal too?

Black Star Ranch

i agree

and how bout this,

a consitutional amendment

nobody in congress gets paid a dime of salary in years when the US fed gov has a budget deficit

They're called thermometers, Lucifer.

Gerrymandered thermometers.

mock, I think it's about time we addressed that first alternative. Sustainable is not the same thing as optimum. At low population levels, the planet takes care of itself and humans gain a certain nimbleness when adjusting where we live (or how) becomes important to our future.

human beings are reaching and exceeding the current carrying capacity of the planet unless we either limit population OR invest in new technologies.

....perfect, mock.......and have them READ out loud on the floor EVERY spending bill they consider - AND, it must be televised.

"The only alternative for this action is to limit care."

Of course there will be limits. Just as there are limits under HMOs right now.

Which is why your claim that it is a given that government health-care will results in a rise in health-care costs needs to be taken with a grain of salt. And why you need to give facts and figures when you make these types of assertations.

How about factoring in the difference in cost between the insured getting health-care at emergency rooms (as hospitals cannot legally turn away patients) and getting it through government mandated health-care?

There are many, many factors that go into calculating the cost of various methods of health-care.

SD,
That was not a great post, that a Rush Limbaugh-type post: I am right because I am Louder!. It is terrible logic to equate the idea of reducing human impact on the Earth with terraforming, in fact those two actions are diametrically opposed. Be careful Byz, you sound just as pompous as those you accuse.

My point is that government life expectancy numbers have a lot more involved in them than simply the quality of the health care system

bingo.

however, I will add a very important caveat to this:
one can do randomized controlled population studies to see if healthcare service differences alter life expectancies between countries or other locales
you just have to CONTROL the study.

I believe it has been done in the past, but am not sure, so please don't take my word on this.

but the single payer debate is about more than life expectancies IMO. it's about cost.
we simply don't have the resources to pay as much as we do on healthcare.
thus something will have to change.

whether or not that will be single payer, who knows. But I'd be shocked if it's anything else.

and I've never seen anybody claim that American healthcare is more efficient than it's socialized counterparts.

NervousRex (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 12:23 pm

Mr. Ruins: Why are you conflating terraforming with basic climate science?

An altimeter and airspeed measurement do not a control system for an airplane make.

You include "capital punishment" as a "statistic mover"?

I never said it's a statistical mover. I just said they were counted in the US and may not be counted elsewhere.

..........time to tend to the girls and the garden. 100+degrees comes too early in the day - Have fun All...........

What does our country do with all the convicts, when we can't afford to keep them in the style they've become accustomed to?

I'd send em' all to Palmyra Atoll, deep in the South Pacific and let em' play Lord of the Flies with each other...

It will serve as quite the deterrent to future scofflaws.

An altimeter and airspeed measurement do not a control system for an airplane make.

You conflated them.

POIC,

Under limits I would be dead. Thanks for thinking so highly of others who pay for health care. I totally understand the cost of my personal limited insurance subsidizing government mandated no pays. That is why it is a joke about no access to heath care. They just want gold card coverage with out the effort in real life. Lunch time see ya later!

What I hear from those against government run health-care is inevitably "it will cost more because the government wastes".

Despite concrete proof that every 1st nation socialized health-care system in the world spends half as much on beurocratic overhead as the private health-care system in the US.

And despite concrete proof that HMOs which is where the majority of Americans get their health-care ALREADY limit access to health-care. Ever tried to get a colonoscopy sooner than 18 months? You can't because their tables say that colonoscopies are only required at 18 month intervals for people under the age of 65. Anyone who thinks that HMOs do not base their decision to approve health-care off the same type of characteristics as their socialized counterparts has not dealt with HMOs indepth unfortunately.

So let me ask again. We already have a system that limits health-care. We already have a system that is proven to expend a minimum of 8% more on over-head than government run health-care systems.

I'm still trying to understand the difference between our system and socialized medicine other than the for-profit characteristic.

In terms of ranking the current economic crisis, I find it interesting how age is playing a factor in people's perceptions. I personally am in full chicken little mode watching the sky fall. My father while thinking things are bad, doesn't think we have reached 1974 levels yet. I have a great aunt in her 90s (still lucid and going strong) who says she feels like this is 1930 all over again. One thing we all agree on is that a jobless recovery is a joke.

jlr (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 12:45 pm

It is terrible logic to equate the idea of reducing human impact on the Earth with terraforming, in fact those two actions are diametrically opposed. Be careful Byz, you sound just as pompous as those you accuse.

You won't limit human impact on earth. I'm all for that, but you'll never see it. These campaigns are much too big and offer much too much political opportunity. There will be a baseline established at an arbitrary location in history and it will be pursued by whatever policy seeks justification at the time. Exemptions will be granted for whatever weapon or industry is the darling of the day, and additional surcharges will be levied on whatever is the baddy-bad du jour.

I don't really care if I come off as pompous. You're gonna throw yourself down the elevator shaft regardless of what I say and do your best to drag me down with you, I'm gonna give you a good laughing-at. The ardent are beyond argument, they have something to be right about loudly and social support to be loud, and that is more important than reality to any simian.

"Under limits I would be dead."

And you know that for a fact how? What disease do you have? Have you spoken to others with your condition in Canada or elsewhere. How much did your health-issue cost? BTW there are no limits to coverage in Canada, so once being treated you wouldn't hit an upper limit.

Just the facts please, not assertations.

I'm of that wacky school of people who believe that one of the things that separates a 1st world country from a 3rd world is access to affordable health-care. Not gold-plated coverage, but decent coverage. So yes I do regard a living standard of health-care as an entitlement.

@B_R

Climate Change.

That's a pretty good rant, and there's some truth to some of it, but let me submit a few comments:

  • whether or not climate change is anthrogenic (the result of us pumping a lot of gasses into the atmosphere at previously impossible scales), there is pretty good evidence it's changing, with real and profound impacts beyond somebody's coastal real estate values...the Pentagon is watching with interest, and that alone is prima facia evidence it's not as trivial as the folks on Martha's Vineyard protecting their enclave.
  • if it's questionable that it's anthrogenic, or that we can do anything about it (I agree the latter is questionable) then it's dubious we'll "break the planet" while trying to address it.
  • this is really about what kind of energy source we use...those are the moving pieces on the gameboard - that is what we can reasonably have some impact on. That is what any objective analysis should be about: what is the optimal energy source for us - and be sure to include all the externalities.
  • It's a fight between people who stand to profit enormously from the existing carbon based energy system and people who stand to benefit enormously in slightly less tangible ways, but still benefit nevertheless (eg, no more mountaintop removal coal extraction, less sprawl construction, etc.).
  • Depriving big coal and big oil is not "breaking the economy". Certainly we will have to bite the bullet in short term costs, but they're coming eventually. The carbon based energy system is not renewable and actually, not easily replaced (gasoline really turns out to have a lot of advantages over batteries), which is all the more reason to back off of it somewhat. Still, any changes to the economy are better dealt with gradually and at least semi-planfully, even if they don't wind up where we think they will when we start: an oil shock isn't really useful for anyone except traders. We have been picking winners and losers all along: big oil won when we picked Interstates over railroads...
  • Pumping the air full of emissions isn't a good thing or even harmless, even if it doesn't cause 'climate change'.

c'mon - analysis is your strong suit...try again!

the scientific community is better than most (NOT PERFECT) at peer review and weeding out false data and bad theories

LOL! How naiive can you get? There's as much religion and politics (and economics) in science as any other field.

but the single payer debate is about more than life expectancies IMO. it's about cost.

Then it's never going to be agreed upon because they government can implement price controls, change what it is willing and not willing to pay for, they can re-define the measurements, etc. The arguement is never-ending; that is the exact reason I'm against the idea.

poic,

We, the public are getting all the bad parts of health insurance already (limited access) and non of the benefit (30% mark up for profits)...So what's the problem?...If you accept that we are currently being screwed from a service standpoint, why should we pay for top notch coverage?

EDIT
Apology, I misunderstood your argument. I thought you were against single payer plan...

NervousRex (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 12:52 pm

An altimeter and airspeed measurement do not a control system for an airplane make.

You conflated them.

No, I didn't, I'd say quite the opposite. Anyone can see the climate is changing, and regardless of where humanity's role in the temperature cycle is, anyone can also see we're destroying our environment as surely as a feeder mouse colony in a finite size box.

But seeing the fact is not finding a solution, nor is proposing a solution finding a solution. I do not see enough understanding of the situation to convince me that a solution will be a real solution and not wishful thinking or hasty suppositions, nor do I see a policy establishment that can implement them without them being a mere figleaf for "what I wanted to do anyway". There are plenty of things that can and should be done as individual policies to address and mediate human impact on the planet. Trying to control the weather and choose the earth's temperature, I would say is human hubris at its most archetypal.

So let me ask again. We already have a system that limits health-care. We already have a system that is proven to expend a minimum of 8% more on over-head than government run health-care systems.

I'm still trying to understand the difference between our system and socialized medicine other than the for-profit characteristic.

+1.

I constantly find it amazing that people have the audacity to talk about "waste" in medicine while ignoring the enormous pay packages of REDUNDANT administrative staff across all the big health care companies, health insurers, and so on.

it it not cheap for large hospital/clinic systems to negotiate contracts with countless insurers to come up with many plans. nor is it cheap then for the medical staff to bill each place appropriately.

For instance, my clinic has 2 coders whose full time job is to look at the doctor's billing and try to improve it, since there are so many rules and exceptions that all change by insurer. not to mention the hordes of administrators who typically make between 1 and 10 and sometimes 50 or more times what a doctor makes. a single payer system is far simpler. those coders would not be necessary.

We, the public are getting all the bad parts of health insurance already

Not true. 42 million people have decided not to bother with the BS altogether. Why choose to stay in a system you abhor? (Related to the question of why someone would keep their money in an account charging -.25% interest.)

Trying to control the weather and choose the earth's temperature, I would say is human hubris at its most archetypal

Byz:
I follow your argument until you say this.

perhaps you're thinking of something that I missed, but this line doesn't make sense.

How does trying to reduce our emissions count as "trying to control the weather and choose the earth's temperature"????

I would hardly call reducing human stresses on the earth "trying to control the weather".

is there some proposal that comes from the global warming community that is trying to control the weather.

it seems a very twisted logic to try to suggest that REDUCING our behavior equals "terraforming" or "trying to control the weather"

for instance, if I landscape my front yard them I am "controlling" nature and I am "terraforming"
but if I leave my front yard to go wild I'd hardly call that "terraforming"

please expand on your "terraforming" and "controlling weather" ideas... I don't follow.

a single payer system is far simpler.

People said the same thing about the federal income tax system back in the 30's. Now we have people who's entire careers are devoted to dealing with the evermore-confusing tax system. Confusion creates jobs, a government-controlled single-payer health system will fall into the exact same confusion.

Humans have the capability to create energy @ around 1/20th that of oil...

If you want a world like the one we have now, and don't want to burn oil in getting there, better think of a new way.

If I understand Byz's argument, stripping away the layers of imagined pedantry, he feels any attempt to seriously confront climate change will over-correct. The cure will be worse than the disease. What's laughable about this position is that most of the current policy prescriptions - e.g. cap and trade - are by nearly all accounts small initial steps in curbing emissions. And even these measures are having difficulty getting off the ground.

So the Byz's of the world are winning. But he would have you believe the enviros are about to declare one-world government from their Greenpeace aircraft carrier.

Again, the financial industry meltdown is an appropriate metaphor. There are lots of complexities that make it hard for John Q Public to understand, about derivatives, cds, mbs, etc. etc. But at the end of the day, a bit of prudence, mixed with regulation, could have reduced the severity of the crisis. Same with CO2.

There is no chance of the gasoline engine being banned anytime soon, for instance. But prudence says we should try to improve fuel economy, reduce emissions, etc. This is not a radical idea -- in fact it's inherently conservative given the scope of the problem.

Yearning to Learn (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 10:09 am

So let me ask again. We already have a system that limits heIl constantly find it amazing that people have the audacity to talk about "waste" in medicine while ignoring the enormous pay packages of REDUNDANT administrative staff across all the big health care companies, health insurers, and so on.

+10
I spent most of the 90s as a bussiness analysis for healthcare and telcom. Talk about two different sys arch models! I moved on to being a project manager for clinical trials because the FDA and univ research admin was easier to navigate then the healthcare ins industry.

Confusion creates jobs, a government-controlled single-payer health system will fall into the exact same confusion.

you ignore the current state of Medicine (or you don't know anything about it)

As it is we ALREADY have a government controlled system (medicare/medicaid) which is dominant. and yes it is unwieldy and confusing and lots of rules etc etc etc.

AND THEN IN ADDITION we have equally confusing private health care rules. and let me tell you, the private health care rules are NO LESS CONFUSING.

so we currently have MANY confusing health care systems.

going to single payer leaves ONE confusing health care system.

thus, it is simplified.

for some reason people persist in PRETENDING that the private beaurocratic systems are any less confusing or redundant. hahahahaahahahahaha.

come to my office and I'd be happy to show you the Blue Cross Blue Shield rules, then the Cigna rules, then the Kaiser rules, then the United HealthGroup rules, then the HealthSouth rules then Humana then Wellpoint, then Medica and so on.

they're all simple, riiiiiiigght.

it will SURELY be much much harder to deal with ONE government insurer as opposed to the current system of dealing with that SAME govt insurer AND all the ones above AND all the little ones too....
especially at the 1st of the year when people CHANGE insurances in the middle of getting care
or when they change jobs and CHANGE insurances in the middle of getting care

hahahahahahahah

And with that, I'm off to buy my own (fuel efficient) vehicle...

Charles Kiting,

Mortality at birth-

USA - 6.3 deaths/1,000 live births

Canada - 4.8 deaths/1,000 live births

= 1.5 extra death per/ 1000 live births = less than 0.05% difference

Life expectancy at birth

USA = 78.06

Canada = 80.34 = 2% Difference

Care to Comment!

From Wikipedia links..

Vonbek777 said: "In terms of ranking the current economic crisis, I find it interesting how age is playing a factor in people's perceptions. I personally am in full chicken little mode watching the sky fall. My father while thinking things are bad, doesn't think we have reached 1974 levels yet. I have a great aunt in her 90s (still lucid and going strong) who says she feels like this is 1930 all over again. One thing we all agree on is that a jobless recovery is a joke."

Speaking of jokes...Smile

After water-boarding the initial unemployment claims data I think we saw the recession trough in April or May. It's been 3 months since the 4-week average of initial claims peaked out.

Raw data available at:

ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
Report

Sebastian

Yearning to Learn (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 1:14 pm

Byz:
I follow your argument until you say this.

perhaps you're thinking of something that I missed, but this line doesn't make sense.

How does trying to reduce our emissions count as "trying to control the weather and choose the earth's temperature"????

Presumably you are going to establish a mechanism for measuring the outcome, right? Not really a good program without objective measures of success or failure. And if the needle keeps moving away from where you want, you will "not be doing enough" and you will do more. That's active management, dude. It might be through indirect mechanism, but you are still picking a point and chasing it.

for instance, if I landscape my front yard them I am "controlling" nature and I am "terraforming"
but if I leave my front yard to go wild I'd hardly call that "terraforming"

Depends, what is wild enough? Is wild enough devoid of invasive species? Time for some active intervention, right? But that's different than pulling up dandelions from your trimmed kentucky bluegrass, right? You bring your perceptions to the game and impose them. People want wildness and so wildness will be framed and pursued, just like a lawn that resembles a putting green.

tranches of lager, the Francis Marion of AGW debate.

"Chicken Big"

Just like Chicken Little, but the sky isn't falling, it's rising...

This is not good for the country...

Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post

On Huffingtonpost, the head line commentary...

THE GREAT AMERICAN BUBBLE MACHINE

Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi On "How Goldman Sachs Has Engineered Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression"

Run for the hills, the Americans will be coming after you!

CA (State cuts off applications for tax credit on home purchases)

"If you were hoping to cash in on the state income tax credit for new-home purchases, you're out of luck, at least for now."

NET WORTH PLUS (sfgate.com/blogs/pender) / State cuts off applications for tax credit on home purchases

"one by land, two by sea"
I believe that this had something to do with Paul Revere, and if I am wrong, please correct me....

tranches of lager,

The biggest problem with any effort to address to imaginary AGW is that most non-western and non-white countries see this as "dog in the manger" type behavior. The bad news is that you are on a rapid decline, they are on the up.. and you cannot win a war against them- economic or military.

lucifer - I think the technical term is "get the fk outta my way".

C

What happened to the 'free market' and the 'wisdom of the marketplace'

Free Marketeers are the truest of 'true believers', until 1 second after the market gives them the bad news.

Some of you might believe that I am OT, however, one question that no one that I am aware of has answered this question...

Why is it important that efficiency and productiveity so critical, when it leads to less employees necessary to work to provide for everyone;s basic needs? What is the the logical conclusion, when everything is either outsourced to cheaper labor markets/robotics and improvements in software...

Is it inevitable that less and less people will be necessary to work to provide the goods and services that we desire?

Stupid question, I know, however, I think it is one that needs to be answered..As the unemployed people increases, what is be done to them or for them, so that they do not revolt..against society?.

EDIT

tranches of lager (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/3/2009 - 1:21 pm

If I understand Byz's argument, stripping away the layers of imagined pedantry

The way I find this most like dealing with GWOT weinerheads is the religious fervor. I'm pretty green -- don't own a car for political / ecological reasons. Won't have kids for political / ecological reasons. Support radical limitation of the population size for political / economic reasons. Frankly, with the exception of a couple other monastic types like Pavel, Black Star Ranch and Yogi, I have a standard of living that would be shockingly low to most people here. But I'm not green enough, just like I wasn't conservative enough because I didn't share every nuance of the hive mind or read Dick Cheney's dinner speeches to see what the next day's talking points were. Sorry, you can point to whatever you want, I see the same dogmatic conformism.

, he feels any attempt to seriously confront climate change will over-correct. The cure will be worse than the disease.

What's laughable about this position is that most of the current policy prescriptions - e.g. cap and trade - are by nearly all accounts small initial steps in curbing emissions. And even these measures are having difficulty getting off the ground.

The problem isn't just that the scope of the solution is laughable compared to the problem. If you were just shaking your fist at the tide, I'd just have a good laugh and wish you the best of luck. The problem is that it is NOT laughable when it is compared to its effects on human civilization. We can make up solutions that do nothing at all to the problem and still kill millions or billions. Great Leap Forward into the Green Energy Future anyone?

So the Byz's of the world are winning. But he would have you believe the enviros are about to declare one-world government from their Greenpeace aircraft carrier.

Word, I'm a global menace 'cause I gainsay you.

As for Greenpeace aircraft carriers, lovely overstatement. But I would say that the same charmingly nebulous collection of oligarchs who lost nothing while you lost you civil rights during the War on Drugs and the War on Terror will now lose nothing while you lose your economic rights and potential. But don't worry, it's for EVERYONE'S SAFETY AND SECURITY. And you'll support them and cheer, just like the white geezers cheered during the War on Drugs because they hated the jigs, and just like the Republicans cheered during the War on Terror because they wanted to be patriotic. But that's just me being a nervous Nelly, it's not like bankers control the US government or anything, LOL.

Again, the financial industry meltdown is an appropriate metaphor. There are lots of complexities that make it hard for John Q Public to understand, about derivatives, cds, mbs, etc. etc. But at the end of the day, a bit of prudence, mixed with regulation, could have reduced the severity of the crisis. Same with CO2.

I'd say it's the appropriate metaphor that the problem isn't economic, or in this case ecological, but political.

There is no chance of the gasoline engine being banned anytime soon, for instance.

Not banned! Just regulated, taxed and surcharged until only the rich can use them, and thus the poor will be made poorer by lack of capital goods, and the rich will pay negligible regressive use taxes, and you will cheer for your peasanthood. It's good that you only have a mule while the rich have BMWs!

But prudence says we should try to improve fuel economy, reduce emissions, etc. This is not a radical idea -- in fact it's inherently conservative given the scope of the problem.

Nor did I argue against any such thing. But hey, I can see I'm a heretic among the orthodox, so have fun fighting the Axis of Evil.

"

So far, Bank of America and Wells Fargo have confirmed they will accept the IOUs.

Just what they want - more level 3 assets."

No problem. The Fed will take them as collateral for treasuries. This will be the back door bailout of CA

"Mortality at birth-

USA - 6.3 deaths/1,000 live births

Canada - 4.8 deaths/1,000 live births

= 1.5 extra death per/ 1000 live births = less than 0.05% difference

Life expectancy at birth

USA = 78.06

Canada = 80.34 = 2% Difference

Care to Comment!"

yeah, amazing Canada does as well as the U.S. with far less spending....interesting, eh??

  • anyone with the temerity to joust with Byzantine_Ruins is literally tilting at a windmill.

Was the government on a bail-out binge in the 80's as it is now? How might the chart look without the +/- $2 trillion in Fed Reserve "money for nothing" extravaganza whereby they've been buying banking sector toxic assets? Isn't that a huge part of the equation?

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