What happens when vendors take CA to court for non payment in legal tender? Does any court have BK jurisdiction? Someone once answered me (facetiously?) the Hague--as this becomes very possible, anyone have any other idea? This is gonna happen--this is not a black swan--we all have expected this for quite some time.
"Current monthly income is defined in 11 U.S.C. § 101(10A) as the monthly average of the income received by the debtor (and the debtor’s spouse in a joint case) during a defined six-month time period prior to the filing of the bankruptcy case."
when I was a kid, bankruptcy was something my parents talked about in hushed tones amongst other neighbors, about the horror of the smiths or jones or what have you..
filing bankrupcy is just one of the last steps in the process of holding off foreclosure. Credit already ruined, why not make the bank work a little harder and longer to take the house back?
Plus, some creative attorneys are finding ways to strip off second mortages in bankrupcy, so if you can just pay the first, you can save a lot this way.
If they pass cram down, then filings will probably double.
Bankruptcy? Why bother? Calvinball rules say just don't worry about it and let everything slide. It isn't like there are consequences of letting debt holders pound sand.
U.S. Workers’ Pay Strained by Mounting Unemployment (Update1)
By Shobhana Chandra
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Americans’ wages are starting to buckle under the strain of mounting unemployment, threatening to erode the consumer spending essential to an economic recovery.
Earnings per hour climbed at a 0.7 percent annual pace on average over the last three months, the smallest gain since records began in 1964, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Payrolls fell more than anticipated and the jobless rate rose to a 26-year high, the report indicated.
“When we do get a recovery, it won’t be much of one,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “There’s no bargaining power for workers. Discretionary income is just cratering, and this will have a profound effect on the economy.”
Employers are not only being stingy with raises, they are also cutting back on hours, causing the average weekly paycheck to drop to $611.49 in June, down 0.5 percent since February. The squeeze is unlikely to end soon, because there are 14.7 million workers who have been without a job for an average 24.5 weeks, the longest since records began in 1948.
“Employers don’t have to pay workers so much because there’s a queue of people waiting outside to get a job,” said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, a research group typically aligned with the labor movement. “It’s reducing workers’ ability to negotiate higher wages. We’re looking at a couple of years of really slow wage growth, possibly even lower than inflation.” U.S. Workers’ Pay Strained by Mounting Unemployment (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
"July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Americans’ wages are starting to buckle under the strain of mounting unemployment, threatening to erode the consumer spending essential to an economic recovery."
The economy caught its breath for a second, and is now ready for the next leg downward.
Just to follow up on the potential for a Napoleonic "whiff of grapeshot" in the US, I think that although one might be frustrated with how the global systemic financial meltdown is being handled; you have to recognize that the US has just experienced a radical change politically. A lot of President O's key constituencies are getting their agendas advanced rapidly after being foiled for 8 yrs by the Bush admin. Passage of wilderness areas, reversals in environmental and health policy, and the new SCOTUS nominee mean that O's backers are satisfied by progress in a number of areas. The fact that the balance in Congress has shifted 180 in a few elections means that a lot of the urge for change has been satisfied.
"Passage of wilderness areas, reversals in environmental and health policy"
but the portion of the electorate (limo liberals and unions) that actually cares about these things is poison to a national coalition - just like the right's relationship with the creationists.
least of all the folks who profit from sticking 100K in debt around a kid's neck along with a degree from a school like Hastings, which will likely never translate to a job that can pay it off. the 300 or so law schools ranked even lower, of course, are even more of a net drag on society.
It's well known that consumers are more likely to buy something if they are able to put it on a CC rather than pull hard cash out of their wallet. Long before bankruptcy the consumer has had to deal with lower credit limits, higher interest and most recently higher minimum payments.
I posit that this is going to have a significant and long-lasting effect on consumer purchases.
Can anyone suggest data sources that might support or refute this thesis?
Apologies if I'm not the first to say this, but the phrase of 2010 may well be...
"We're all bankrupt now!"
After all, California, a few counties, and several cities are effectively in default on their obligations now and wrangling things out in the legal system.
The Federal Government's budget deficit is unsustainable -- and I don't think the convergence between spending and taxation is going to come about because of increased tax revenues.
Of course, when Uncle Sam goes BK, it'll be stealthed -- unless someone's got a better plan figured out, it appears the only way to proceed is for the Federal Reserve to monetize the debts, giving us Bankruptcy-by-Inflation/Devaluation.
Inflation and Federal Bankruptcy are equivalent in that the bondholders will take haircuts either way. Of course, the collateral damage is different.
IIRC, that is the extent of benefit recipients counted under continuing claims - if extended benefits are available, then they can receive but will have rolled off the back of the continuing claims rolls...
What was the Bloomberg code - EXHRT or something - showing the parabolic increase in folks who run out of UE bennies...
HH,
"poison to a national coalition"...true, but that's partly because the sensible parts of the agenda of the left are mainstream now. Nobody runs on "water pollution doesn't matter", or "radiation is harmless". The enviros have to concoct extremist schemes to keep themselves in the limelight.
That said, Washington, Jefferson, and Adams et al revolted over a couple of tax laws and the imposition of several royal mandates hardly more egregious than, say, the Patriot Act. I think that Byzantine R here put it well in saying that its best to sit tight for a while to see how things play out. IMO, not least because it may be that the current structures lead to a reasonable resolution. I think finding out what happens when govt checks stop coming to the average person, like apparently in CA here soon, will give an idea of where things will lead.
"I believe it's possible to receive up to 59 weeks. True? "
Longer than that; I believe 79 weeks currently in California.
As far as hanging mongo college debt around a kid's head, people need to know this:
Don't take a degree that can't lead to a good paying job -- unless you're really well-fixed.
Community college is your friend for lower division, which isn't worth the money at most four-year schools; and go to state instead of the "perfect" college 2000 miles away for upper-division. If you have to take a big loan to go to Perfect University, "state" is ALL YOU CAN REALLY AFFORD.
If everybody did this, certain departments and schools would be doomed, and a wide range of private colleges would drop like flies. Well, fine. In the short- to medium-run, another model would replace them. I'm much happier with collapsing colleges than leaving pregnant welfare mothers with diabetes complications by the side of the road for the wolves because "it's their fault."
Let's put you in the shoes of Bob & Betty Bitchin', who bought their home in Southern California, circa 1996 and gained equity as both Bob & Betty were being downsized financially in their jobs, and so they were able to keep up appearances only vis a Visa vis a Home ATM.
that process will be interesting - the degree to which sacto starves the counties may be more relevant than the vendors etc receiving scrip. the only part of our 'thin blue line' which gets sacto checks, to my knowledge, are the chippies, and they're a minimal presence in the bigger coastal regions.
"How do regulators of any kind press for meaningful plans regarding closing down, say, Citigroup or JP Morgan Chase? The CEOs of those firms have direct access to the Secretary of the Treasury and on Pennsylvannia avenue they are regarded as gurus and bastions of the economy. They’ll say, “look, if you let this person force us to simplify our business, there will be less credit growth and a big recession.” Which recent Treasury Secretary would be able, at that moment, to face them down – particularly as these bankers can, if pushed, go to the big boss?"
Will we be willing to take some short term pain to dump the banksters? That's the question...now back to work.
The bottom 4 quitiles have been living with those income and unemployment realities for a lot longer than the current statistics show. Bernanke should have been looking not just at averages, but at distribution too.
how can a debt system work if all the income (inflation gathering) continually gets recycled and concentrated.
I became a fan of treasuries long ago as I didn't see how so many of the debts could ever be paid.
I'm much happier with collapsing colleges than leaving pregnant welfare mothers with diabetes complications by the side of the road for the wolves because "it's their fault."
Hey, wolves gotta eat, too. Whaddaya got against wildlife?
OT....Email received today from a friend re: house prices in a Los Gatos (SillyCon Valley) neighborhood included these gems:
They might come down a little more, but I don't think much..... I think things are going around the $1 - 1.3 mill. Maybe the manor is just too desirable of a neighborhood to drop as much as the rest of the area.
Prices won't come down much farther, even though they're still almost double what they were in 2000, and even though:
-- Valley unemployment is 12%
-- Mortgage rates are trending up
-- Lending standards have tightened considerably
-- Half the recent mortgages in that neighborhood were Alt+A and Option ARM
-- There's a bunch of flippers in the neighborhood waiting for a chance to sell
Even though, even though, even though...
But rising stock prices have definitely lightened the mood here in the valley. We're wealthy again!
next week should be interesting market....last year at this time everything started to explode, bear, fannie and by the looks of it the head and shoulder confirmed on sp500..
12th percentile...it looks like your pick is building some mojo....
Yeah, that is what I am thinking too. Can't let the scent of fear linger over the weekend. I am sure we will hear about volume and profit taking over the long weekend. Everything is fine in the garden.
Pardon my spelling an grammar today. I have an acute case of swimmer's ear. I am medicated, half my head feels like it is going to explode, and whatever the doc stuck in my ear canal is making me climb the walls. I can't sleep. Never had problems with my ears before. Seriously curtailed my 4th of July plans. Fun, fun, fun.
Saw BHO on teevee AGAIN today. What a numbskull. On a day when the jobs report shows further massive declines he's out there shillin' the carbon tax bill as a jobs creator. Yeah, on administrative overhead for carbon credit traders, his buddies on trading desks. Everyone else gets the shaft.
Hey, I've got an idea! Why not spread some nasty disease and call it a health care stimulus measure because it creates jobs in health care. He's a total imbecile.
If big trading house are churning stocks and are unwilling to hold stocks for a long week end, let alone for longer periods why should anybody hold stocks? Especially given that stocks are over-valued on a historical basis and we are indebted like never before.
"They might come down a little more, but I don't think much..... I think things are going around the $1 - 1.3 mill. Maybe the manor is just too desirable of a neighborhood to drop as much as the rest of the area."
If it makes ya feel any better, that's the standard belief her in the "nice" parts of L.A. as well. Maddening...
@Angry Saver - many months ago, I had a conversation with someone along those lines. Why be the low man on the capital totem-pole in the event of a BK? I'm not sure how many good yield opportunities are still out there but for awhile there were coupons in the 7% on 5 years on companies like VZ. Think their stock is going to do that?
I can almost hear the guys at the Goldman pump desk shouting like Scotty from Star Trek: "She's already at 105% impulse power, Cap'n! She can't give you any more!"
Conan Elmo: Crom, I have never prayed to you before. I have no tongue for it. No one, not even you, will remember if we were good men or bad. Why we fought, or why we died. All that matters is that two stood against many. That's what's important! Valor pleases you, Crom... so grant me one request. Grant me revenge! And if you do not listen, then to HELL with you!
"I am sure we will hear about volume and profit taking over the long weekend."
Volume is light, but nowadays the organic volume in the market is even lighter, so the daily fluctuations can be gamed by the computerized systems at the large trading houses.
On the one hand, with prices low, a given dollar volume of trading should involve more shares. On the other hand, with leverage and risk appetites down, what used to be a "reasonable" share volume should be a thing of the past.
So, how many individual investors cannot get quotes or other data past 4:00 even if the market stays open? My trading account won't give quotes after 16:00.
Seems kinda unfair if, say, a really huge order were to flow through and move the prices all over, and none of us could react to it, no?
Reference to Angry Saver's comment re credit histories.
I'm hoping that there's going to be a crab bucket effect here. The swelling number of bankruptcies and declining credit scores will lead to a generalized acceptance that the lower credit scores are the norm and will thus reset.
Of course, monkeys could fly out my butt. FD: I got a decent score...
Everyone has a god given right to lose there money when they don't take care of it. Investors have a god given right to lose their money when they are idiots.
I'm hoping that there's going to be a crab bucket effect here. The swelling number of bankruptcies and declining credit scores will lead to a generalized acceptance that the lower credit scores are the norm and will thus reset.
Well and thoroughly pigged by now - and it's probably been said already - but I'll throw my 2c in anyway.
The 'tipping point' for this sort of behavior may be at much lower percentages of the population than many think. In fact, we may well already be past it.
All that it takes to advance a behavior from the province of 'early adopters' to that of the majority is acceptance. Once your average citizen, looking at someone who advances a cause or commits an act, stops thinking 'what a (loser / freak / jacka$$)' and starts thinking 'hmm, maybe those guys are on to something' (or vice versa), adoption by the majority is virtually inevitable.
That doesn't happen at 50% of the population, or 30%, or even 15%.
I'd argue it's more like 5% in most cases. Probably less.
And then we tip, and people will start looking askance at the guy who cares about keeping up his credit score in the same way they look today at the guy who brags about his Hummer H1.
We might not be there yet. But if we're not, three or six months more of these kinds of numbers will do the trick.
When you deal with predator banks, predator brokers,predator credit card issuers and a predator financial system which is engaged
in financial rape, in this country run by a predatory Congress the only salvation and relief is Bankruptcy.
And don't give me that crap that as a consumer I should know better, because it was a predator attorney that wrote the deal
in really small legalize print.
I was doing fine.
Before the credit crunch hit, I was doing fine. Excellent credit rating, low credit utilization, never behind on a payment.
My credit card companies other than Chase cut my lines of credit and raised my interest rates.
That shot down my credit rating because suddenly I had 90% credit utilization. But I was still doing fine, because I had already consolidated balances from all other cards into a 2.99% life of the loan promotional rate card from Chase. I paid off 15% of the loan in six months flat.
So I was still doing fine. Principal and payments dropping every month. Completely out of debt in five years' time, yessirree.
Then, just last week, Chase notified me that the 2.99% promotional rate will stay the same (they can't raise it due to federal law on promotional rates) BUT the minimum monthly payment will go from 2% of the balance to 5% of the balance. They'll generously allow me to "renegotiate" my credit card rate to a new card with a 2% minimum monthly payment and a 14.99% interest rate.
They're doing this to everyone who took at 2.99% promotional rate, including people (like me) with good credit ratings who made every monthly payment on time. They just want to force us into default so they can welch on the deal and gouge out higher interest rates.
I am not going to "renegotiate" the loan, I'll never get out of debt if I accept a 14.99% interest rate, I'd rather take bankruptcy. And since I can't make the 5% payments, I guess I'll have to.
Why? Oh.. It is green shoots!.. not the right kind, though..
The future Sans-Credits, Sans-Jobs
The way the new bankrupcy law is written, it is definitely a benefit to be unemployed when for file for BK. Gotta love that unintended consequence.
"Why? "
because the "stimulus" does nothing for small business.
I'd also like to take this moment to congratulate everyone who voted for W or a GOP rep in '04. Heckuva job!
Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
What happens when vendors take CA to court for non payment in legal tender? Does any court have BK jurisdiction? Someone once answered me (facetiously?) the Hague--as this becomes very possible, anyone have any other idea? This is gonna happen--this is not a black swan--we all have expected this for quite some time.
don't forget the money shot:
"Current monthly income is defined in 11 U.S.C. § 101(10A) as the monthly average of the income received by the debtor (and the debtor’s spouse in a joint case) during a defined six-month time period prior to the filing of the bankruptcy case."
Green Scoots....... EWWWW
I know of a family where the parents are getting divorced so they can split their liabilities in half. Not sure how this works...
when I was a kid, bankruptcy was something my parents talked about in hushed tones amongst other neighbors, about the horror of the smiths or jones or what have you..
Shame really worked, once upon a time...
filing bankrupcy is just one of the last steps in the process of holding off foreclosure. Credit already ruined, why not make the bank work a little harder and longer to take the house back?
Plus, some creative attorneys are finding ways to strip off second mortages in bankrupcy, so if you can just pay the first, you can save a lot this way.
If they pass cram down, then filings will probably double.
We need debtor prisons in California to keep the Prison Guards Union members fully employed! Maybe even "loan" the debtors out to pick grapes.
Bankruptcy? Why bother? Calvinball rules say just don't worry about it and let everything slide. It isn't like there are consequences of letting debt holders pound sand.
Filed under, this is inflationary, right?
U.S. Workers’ Pay Strained by Mounting Unemployment (Update1)
By Shobhana Chandra
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Americans’ wages are starting to buckle under the strain of mounting unemployment, threatening to erode the consumer spending essential to an economic recovery.
Earnings per hour climbed at a 0.7 percent annual pace on average over the last three months, the smallest gain since records began in 1964, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Payrolls fell more than anticipated and the jobless rate rose to a 26-year high, the report indicated.
“When we do get a recovery, it won’t be much of one,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “There’s no bargaining power for workers. Discretionary income is just cratering, and this will have a profound effect on the economy.”
Employers are not only being stingy with raises, they are also cutting back on hours, causing the average weekly paycheck to drop to $611.49 in June, down 0.5 percent since February. The squeeze is unlikely to end soon, because there are 14.7 million workers who have been without a job for an average 24.5 weeks, the longest since records began in 1948.
“Employers don’t have to pay workers so much because there’s a queue of people waiting outside to get a job,” said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, a research group typically aligned with the labor movement. “It’s reducing workers’ ability to negotiate higher wages. We’re looking at a couple of years of really slow wage growth, possibly even lower than inflation.”
U.S. Workers’ Pay Strained by Mounting Unemployment (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Think I'll be filing for moral bankruptcy later this summer.
Imagine all that student debt that cannot be discharged.
Just for fun...
Watergate Hotel Facing Foreclosure
Now I'll never get a condo in the Watergate Hotel.
"July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Americans’ wages are starting to buckle under the strain of mounting unemployment, threatening to erode the consumer spending essential to an economic recovery."
The economy caught its breath for a second, and is now ready for the next leg downward.
"Imagine all that student debt"
that doesn't belong to boomers, so it really doesn't figure into the political calculus, except as a contributing cause for why the kid lives at home.
Just to follow up on the potential for a Napoleonic "whiff of grapeshot" in the US, I think that although one might be frustrated with how the global systemic financial meltdown is being handled; you have to recognize that the US has just experienced a radical change politically. A lot of President O's key constituencies are getting their agendas advanced rapidly after being foiled for 8 yrs by the Bush admin. Passage of wilderness areas, reversals in environmental and health policy, and the new SCOTUS nominee mean that O's backers are satisfied by progress in a number of areas. The fact that the balance in Congress has shifted 180 in a few elections means that a lot of the urge for change has been satisfied.
"Shame really worked, once upon a time..."
It's called culture.
"Passage of wilderness areas, reversals in environmental and health policy"
but the portion of the electorate (limo liberals and unions) that actually cares about these things is poison to a national coalition - just like the right's relationship with the creationists.
We lost the shame of getting deep into debt in the first place.
re: student loans
got to read this piece in the NYT. Hard to empathize with any party.
Aspiring Lawyer Finds Debt Is Bigger Hurdle Than Bar Exam - NY Times
Shame really worked, once upon a time
Yeah, and the government is now financing commercials on how BK has made GM more efficient...
"Shame really worked, once upon a time..."
It's called culture."
So true. Changes in the culture are the real revolutionary ones, and the most decisive.
"Hard to empathize with any party."
least of all the folks who profit from sticking 100K in debt around a kid's neck along with a degree from a school like Hastings, which will likely never translate to a job that can pay it off. the 300 or so law schools ranked even lower, of course, are even more of a net drag on society.
It's well known that consumers are more likely to buy something if they are able to put it on a CC rather than pull hard cash out of their wallet. Long before bankruptcy the consumer has had to deal with lower credit limits, higher interest and most recently higher minimum payments.
I posit that this is going to have a significant and long-lasting effect on consumer purchases.
Can anyone suggest data sources that might support or refute this thesis?
paging timmy g, situation 900, situation 900
Well we broke that magic 900 number on the S&P, waiting for the pump...
there are 14.7 million workers who have been without a job for an average 24.5 weeks, the longest since records began in 1948.
Arent most UE benie's maxed out at 26 weeks?
Bingo down 200 for the dow.
"Arent most UE benie's maxed out at 26 weeks?"
I believe it's possible to receive up to 59 weeks. True?
All this moralizing about debtors is just so.....Victorian.
Apologies if I'm not the first to say this, but the phrase of 2010 may well be...
"We're all bankrupt now!"
After all, California, a few counties, and several cities are effectively in default on their obligations now and wrangling things out in the legal system.
The Federal Government's budget deficit is unsustainable -- and I don't think the convergence between spending and taxation is going to come about because of increased tax revenues.
Based on several comments here over the last couple of days, I'd nominate:
"It can't get any worse."
for the phrase of 2009.
Of course, when Uncle Sam goes BK, it'll be stealthed -- unless someone's got a better plan figured out, it appears the only way to proceed is for the Federal Reserve to monetize the debts, giving us Bankruptcy-by-Inflation/Devaluation.
Inflation and Federal Bankruptcy are equivalent in that the bondholders will take haircuts either way. Of course, the collateral damage is different.
Wisdom, or maybe "I'm free"
We'll all be singing it like Daltrey....or at least I will
YouTube - The Who, Roger Daltrey - I am free.
IIRC, that is the extent of benefit recipients counted under continuing claims - if extended benefits are available, then they can receive but will have rolled off the back of the continuing claims rolls...
What was the Bloomberg code - EXHRT or something - showing the parabolic increase in folks who run out of UE bennies...
Agreed - After debt, Bankruptcy is freedom... of course, so is getting out of jail. Unfortunately both leave a stain... and a paper trail...
Saying of 2009-2012 will be one single word......"Damn"
HH,
"poison to a national coalition"...true, but that's partly because the sensible parts of the agenda of the left are mainstream now. Nobody runs on "water pollution doesn't matter", or "radiation is harmless". The enviros have to concoct extremist schemes to keep themselves in the limelight.
That said, Washington, Jefferson, and Adams et al revolted over a couple of tax laws and the imposition of several royal mandates hardly more egregious than, say, the Patriot Act. I think that Byzantine R here put it well in saying that its best to sit tight for a while to see how things play out. IMO, not least because it may be that the current structures lead to a reasonable resolution. I think finding out what happens when govt checks stop coming to the average person, like apparently in CA here soon, will give an idea of where things will lead.
picosec (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/2/2009 - 12:32 pm
Based on several comments here over the last couple of days, I'd nominate:
"It can't get any worse."
for the phrase of 2009.
Doubly troubling because it was uttered in reference to 1938's "Crystal Night."
Go for treble - that was the grind down in GD 1 - but then it kept getting worse...
Any guesses what goes on in the last five minutes of trading?
"I believe it's possible to receive up to 59 weeks. True? "
Longer than that; I believe 79 weeks currently in California.
As far as hanging mongo college debt around a kid's head, people need to know this:
If everybody did this, certain departments and schools would be doomed, and a wide range of private colleges would drop like flies. Well, fine. In the short- to medium-run, another model would replace them. I'm much happier with collapsing colleges than leaving pregnant welfare mothers with diabetes complications by the side of the road for the wolves because "it's their fault."
Let's put you in the shoes of Bob & Betty Bitchin', who bought their home in Southern California, circa 1996 and gained equity as both Bob & Betty were being downsized financially in their jobs, and so they were able to keep up appearances only vis a Visa vis a Home ATM.
Bob & Betty types are going bk, in droves...
"like apparently in CA here soon"
that process will be interesting - the degree to which sacto starves the counties may be more relevant than the vendors etc receiving scrip. the only part of our 'thin blue line' which gets sacto checks, to my knowledge, are the chippies, and they're a minimal presence in the bigger coastal regions.
JD- and to think they were swinging just a few years ago....
Baseline Res today says
"How do regulators of any kind press for meaningful plans regarding closing down, say, Citigroup or JP Morgan Chase? The CEOs of those firms have direct access to the Secretary of the Treasury and on Pennsylvannia avenue they are regarded as gurus and bastions of the economy. They’ll say, “look, if you let this person force us to simplify our business, there will be less credit growth and a big recession.” Which recent Treasury Secretary would be able, at that moment, to face them down – particularly as these bankers can, if pushed, go to the big boss?"
Will we be willing to take some short term pain to dump the banksters? That's the question...now back to work.
energyecon,
The bottom 4 quitiles have been living with those income and unemployment realities for a lot longer than the current statistics show. Bernanke should have been looking not just at averages, but at distribution too.
how can a debt system work if all the income (inflation gathering) continually gets recycled and concentrated.
I became a fan of treasuries long ago as I didn't see how so many of the debts could ever be paid.
Exhaustion Rate.... here's the raw data link from Dept of Labor.
DoL State UI Program Totals
I'm much happier with collapsing colleges than leaving pregnant welfare mothers with diabetes complications by the side of the road for the wolves because "it's their fault."
Hey, wolves gotta eat, too. Whaddaya got against wildlife?
OT....Email received today from a friend re: house prices in a Los Gatos (SillyCon Valley) neighborhood included these gems:
They might come down a little more, but I don't think much..... I think things are going around the $1 - 1.3 mill. Maybe the manor is just too desirable of a neighborhood to drop as much as the rest of the area.
Prices won't come down much farther, even though they're still almost double what they were in 2000, and even though:
-- Valley unemployment is 12%
-- Mortgage rates are trending up
-- Lending standards have tightened considerably
-- Half the recent mortgages in that neighborhood were Alt+A and Option ARM
-- There's a bunch of flippers in the neighborhood waiting for a chance to sell
Even though, even though, even though...
But rising stock prices have definitely lightened the mood here in the valley. We're wealthy again!
"Any guesses what goes on in the last five minutes of trading?"
I'll be shocked if we don't get some sort of pump back into 9-handle land on the S&P.
next week should be interesting market....last year at this time everything started to explode, bear, fannie and by the looks of it the head and shoulder confirmed on sp500..
12th percentile...it looks like your pick is building some mojo....
Yeah, that is what I am thinking too. Can't let the scent of fear linger over the weekend. I am sure we will hear about volume and profit taking over the long weekend. Everything is fine in the garden.
Pardon my spelling an grammar today. I have an acute case of swimmer's ear. I am medicated, half my head feels like it is going to explode, and whatever the doc stuck in my ear canal is making me climb the walls. I can't sleep. Never had problems with my ears before. Seriously curtailed my 4th of July plans. Fun, fun, fun.
Saw BHO on teevee AGAIN today. What a numbskull. On a day when the jobs report shows further massive declines he's out there shillin' the carbon tax bill as a jobs creator. Yeah, on administrative overhead for carbon credit traders, his buddies on trading desks. Everyone else gets the shaft.
Hey, I've got an idea! Why not spread some nasty disease and call it a health care stimulus measure because it creates jobs in health care. He's a total imbecile.
If big trading house are churning stocks and are unwilling to hold stocks for a long week end, let alone for longer periods why should anybody hold stocks? Especially given that stocks are over-valued on a historical basis and we are indebted like never before.
Scaredy longeys don't want to hold positions over a long weekend.
It is all over
but the slow slide
into squalor
A load of bread
A days wages
Park for a bed
Desperation
is the new black
Lies the new currency
Hope is leaving town
"They might come down a little more, but I don't think much..... I think things are going around the $1 - 1.3 mill. Maybe the manor is just too desirable of a neighborhood to drop as much as the rest of the area."
If it makes ya feel any better, that's the standard belief her in the "nice" parts of L.A. as well. Maddening...
@Angry Saver - many months ago, I had a conversation with someone along those lines. Why be the low man on the capital totem-pole in the event of a BK? I'm not sure how many good yield opportunities are still out there but for awhile there were coupons in the 7% on 5 years on companies like VZ. Think their stock is going to do that?
et sans-culottes.
SRS has been a good barometer of the whole rally, its running north into the close today which makes me think next week might be hard on the longs..
Go forth, and buy Levis' jeans!
I wonder if Whitman is multitude enough for this ...
YouTube - Levis Go Forth
"Turn those machines back on!"
Will the last bankster out for the holiday please turn off the lights?
Thanks, and have a happy 4th.
"that's the standard belief her in the "nice" parts of L.A. as well. "
these things take time
NEWPORT BEACH 46 $767,500 $1,200,000 -36.04%
RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA 61 $345,000 $425,000 -18.82%
SAN RAFAEL 61 $580,000 $716,000 -18.99%
BRENTWOOD 26 $885,000 $1,550,000 -42.90%
ENCINITAS 36 $518,500 $673,750 -23.04%
plenty of 'nice' parts of CA are falling at a healthy clip.
I can almost hear the guys at the Goldman pump desk shouting like Scotty from Star Trek: "She's already at 105% impulse power, Cap'n! She can't give you any more!"
Conan Elmo: Crom, I have never prayed to you before. I have no tongue for it. No one, not even you, will remember if we were good men or bad. Why we fought, or why we died. All that matters is that two stood against many. That's what's important! Valor pleases you, Crom... so grant me one request. Grant me revenge! And if you do not listen, then to HELL with you!
Looks like Crom took a request today
Marketwatch:
NYSE to extend close by 15 minutes due to technical glitches
Take the market on that!
extending the close to 4:15pm??????????
SP500 pump team couldn't make it to the fire on time, so $897 is the close (now the house can't be saved).
Looks like somebody is a quitter, couldn't keep SPX above 900 for 40 measely minutes.
What's wrong with you program traders!? The Fed gave you the $, now it's up to you to make the market dance!
"I am sure we will hear about volume and profit taking over the long weekend."
Volume is light, but nowadays the organic volume in the market is even lighter, so the daily fluctuations can be gamed by the computerized systems at the large trading houses.
On the one hand, with prices low, a given dollar volume of trading should involve more shares. On the other hand, with leverage and risk appetites down, what used to be a "reasonable" share volume should be a thing of the past.
Link on that NYSE close extension?
The monkey pushed the wrong button.
Nevermind, I see it's main headline at MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News
No story that I can see?
So, how many individual investors cannot get quotes or other data past 4:00 even if the market stays open? My trading account won't give quotes after 16:00.
Seems kinda unfair if, say, a really huge order were to flow through and move the prices all over, and none of us could react to it, no?
So, the PPT gets an extra 15 minutes for extra pumpage while everyone trying to trade electronically has no idea what is going on? I call shenanigans.
I don't normally think of an unsatisfactory closing price as a "technical glitch," but I guess that's a matter of opinion.
Last 15 min of each day from now on are solely for GS, JPM and Chitty to play alone in the sandbox.
Reference to Angry Saver's comment re credit histories.
I'm hoping that there's going to be a crab bucket effect here. The swelling number of bankruptcies and declining credit scores will lead to a generalized acceptance that the lower credit scores are the norm and will thus reset.
Of course, monkeys could fly out my butt. FD: I got a decent score...
Of course, monkeys could fly out my butt
That could be bad. what if they grabbed for the bannana?
I keep mine locked away with the PM.
Everyone has a god given right to lose there money when they don't take care of it. Investors have a god given right to lose their money when they are idiots.
So what's the problem?
I'm hoping that there's going to be a crab bucket effect here. The swelling number of bankruptcies and declining credit scores will lead to a generalized acceptance that the lower credit scores are the norm and will thus reset.
Well and thoroughly pigged by now - and it's probably been said already - but I'll throw my 2c in anyway.
The 'tipping point' for this sort of behavior may be at much lower percentages of the population than many think. In fact, we may well already be past it.
All that it takes to advance a behavior from the province of 'early adopters' to that of the majority is acceptance. Once your average citizen, looking at someone who advances a cause or commits an act, stops thinking 'what a (loser / freak / jacka$$)' and starts thinking 'hmm, maybe those guys are on to something' (or vice versa), adoption by the majority is virtually inevitable.
That doesn't happen at 50% of the population, or 30%, or even 15%.
I'd argue it's more like 5% in most cases. Probably less.
And then we tip, and people will start looking askance at the guy who cares about keeping up his credit score in the same way they look today at the guy who brags about his Hummer H1.
We might not be there yet. But if we're not, three or six months more of these kinds of numbers will do the trick.
Imagine all that student debt that cannot be discharged.
IBRinfo :: Help is here!
-click on calculator
When you deal with predator banks, predator brokers,predator credit card issuers and a predator financial system which is engaged
in financial rape, in this country run by a predatory Congress the only salvation and relief is Bankruptcy.
And don't give me that crap that as a consumer I should know better, because it was a predator attorney that wrote the deal
in really small legalize print.
I was doing fine.
Before the credit crunch hit, I was doing fine. Excellent credit rating, low credit utilization, never behind on a payment.
That shot down my credit rating because suddenly I had 90% credit utilization. But I was still doing fine, because I had already consolidated balances from all other cards into a 2.99% life of the loan promotional rate card from Chase. I paid off 15% of the loan in six months flat.
So I was still doing fine. Principal and payments dropping every month. Completely out of debt in five years' time, yessirree.
They're doing this to everyone who took at 2.99% promotional rate, including people (like me) with good credit ratings who made every monthly payment on time. They just want to force us into default so they can welch on the deal and gouge out higher interest rates.
I am not going to "renegotiate" the loan, I'll never get out of debt if I accept a 14.99% interest rate, I'd rather take bankruptcy. And since I can't make the 5% payments, I guess I'll have to.