O yeah the birth deaths adjustment was +185K jobs. Construction apparently added 31,000 jobs.
Fake Jobs 

-K

nice post, CR.

Weekly claims 600k + is the new black.

The market looks like it's going open way low... everyone getting out the pool before the holiday?

Construction apparently added 31,000 jobs.

This has to one of the best things I've read all week... ROTFLOL ! ! ! Thanks for that, great start to a morning....

LOL Nades,
just back from a run myself did a double take at the screen.

Hmmm the census added how many jobs come April that were only 11 weeks long?

Romer calling green shoots on 467,000 job loss saying we were losing 700,000 just a few months ago.

CR,

I know you've done some initial and revised UE charts before. Any chance to see some more?

Holiday weekend, along with the green shoots crowd encountering heavy incoming fire:
I like to think of the guys on the desks with Iron Maiden jammin' in the iPods, selling with both hands.

"Run to the hills ... run for-or your li-i-ife ..."

No, the +185k figure is 2009, and has just been posted.

And shill, please turn on your sarcasm detectors. Everyone knows that is it July that is the dreaded month of mass lay-offs, not June. If you don't believe me, just see how the unemployment rate doesn't increase sensibly next month either.

Note also that the unemployment rate has already exceeded the peak of the "baseline scenario".

Think of it as: Underpromise and overdeliver.

More on topic question.....

So we're more closely tracking the 'baseline scenario' on the CS Index. But we're smoking the unemployment 'adverse scenario'.....

Which is a bigger deal to the American psyche... If you're among the unemployed I know the answer. If you not but own a house? Hummmm....

Romer calling green shoots on 467,000 job loss saying we were losing 700,000 just a few months ago

Romer better cool it. BO poll numbers are sliding as well as consumer confidence. The administration better man-up and soon about the truth before they lose all credibility.

Disclosure:
Iron Maiden are not certified financial planners, and Iron Maiden's opinions should not be relied upon to the exclusion of other relevant data and analysis. Market moves should only be undertaken after independent research and decision-making processes. Your actual results may vary. And in the authoritative words of the Franklin Mint - "not all plates go up in value; some go down."

skk and Plantagenet, thanks.

re: equities--all bets should be off from here, it's gonna get bumpy for a while

energyecon - totally agree... but I think there is a consumption affect that people who are still in good standing and relatively debt free. a multiplier if you will.... and I think the longer this keeps getting worse the more the 'safe' people start acting differently...

For the more thoughtful amongst us:

Jean Baudrillard- Two Essays ("Simulacra and Science Fiction" and
"Ballard's Crash")

Introduction to Jean Baudrillard, Module on Simulacra and Simulation

We are now in the third level of simulacra....

Obama was declaring success the other day

"I dont think that word means what you think it does..." (I think I'm repeating that correctly.... please correct me if I'm wrong....)

nades....don't make "do not" into don't. It's not technically correct.

Two anecdotes from Pulaski, VA, where I am visiting this week.

One: the annual 4th of July fireworks on Lake Claytor have been canceled due to "the poor economy."

Two: the local paper's 75-year-ago column noted that in 1934, umpire salaries were decreased from $1/game to $0.84. If we are in 1930 now, this cannot be good.

factory orders rise 1.2%

Easter Island is a bad example because it's such an isolated case, I like the Anasazi much better for a comparison to us. They had the option of getting up and leaving, and did.

The Anasazi only had fire, no oil, no coal, no internal combustion engines, etc.

They had a 300 year period where they built the finest structures in aboriginal America (3 & 4 story buildings) and if you haven't been to Chaco Canyon, I encourage a visit. It's truly the USA's Pompeii.

They were able to handle many long droughts in their ascendency, but as climate changed as they were on the downslope as a society (an extensive drought in the 12th century-it was about 100 years long in California) was just too much.

We know them nowadays as Navajo and Hopi indians...

The job numbers should be broken down by age group. I bet it is much higher in the 22-30 group.

Meanwhile Joe6figure is doing fine...

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2009/06/27/opinion/editorials/zf7e5eb4697423c99882575e10017c168.txt

"California's public employee pension fund lost nearly a third of its value in the recent stock market crash, but the state's local governments have just been given permission to hide those massive losses by pushing them off the books and trying to recoup them over the next generation."

"CalPERS assumes the pension fund will earn a 7.75 percent return indefinitely, ..."

More on simulacra

PREVARICATION AND THE ART OF RULING

who thinks there'll be a 7 handle on the DJIA today?

Does anyone have a good write up that picks apart the mechanics of the BLS birth / death correction? TIA!

Never put off the books what you can misvalue today.

Adrenaline straight into the heart for my Jul 90 puts......they may yet live

Chainsaw.

That's right double down in MUNI's. I bet CALpers already has.

mal,

California is in the midst of the 3rd year of a drought that has already knocked out a decent portion of the Central Valley's ability to grow food.

Imagine what years #4, 5, 6, 7, 8, of a drought would look like?

He had no idea that Tainter used it as his groundwork to establish his new way of thinking..

A new way of thinking? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

That's just so precious!

Cheers,
prat

CalPERS assumes the pension fund will earn a 7.75 percent return indefinitely

The 30 year might get back there.

nades; the birth death ratio is a PFA number (Plucked From Air)

Just because we avoided the depression and 25% unemployment doesn't mean were not going to hit 15%. This is just a depression without the bank failers.

BLS says (pg4): In June, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours—the lowest level on record for the series, which began in 1964.

threetorches

+10

ROTFLMAO

econ watcher im sorry but we got bank failures, sometimes on friday sometimes joined together in shotgun marriages banks are lonesome and scared shootless. imo

"I was looking over some o the chapters I had written 6 months ago for American Apocalypse. I had GM going BK in a year. My head not wrap around the fact that they actually would so I wrote out in the future. It is amazing what has happened in the past year if you look at it on a timeline."

Don't worry, they can always BK again.

All social engineering is preceded by verbal engineering. We have been the subjects of competing social engineering fractions for at least 2 decades now.

'We're in the Middle of a Crash': Black Swan - CNBC 

The financial system is crashing and action must be taken by the US government to convert debt into equity to produce a more stable environment, Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan," told CNBC Thursday.

"You may have green shoots, whatever you want to call them, you may have temporary relief, but you are still in a world that's breaking," Taleb said on "Squawk Box."

Nick,make that "broken",will ya?

What would Willie Sutton do?

When the FDIC can no longer cover losses I will be scared shootless.

Econ Watcher (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/2/2009 - 7:28 am

When the FDIC can no longer cover losses I will be scared shootless.

You mean... no Bank Failure Thursday? CORUS still trading at 26¢.

question
if a us company send mterial offshore where it is made into finished product then returned to us.is that counted as us factory and in that factory thingie?

Some good links I havent seen else where on the intertubes....

Manhattan real estate prices diving.
China on the dollar.
China on the dollar again.
FT on the long lasting effect of the financial calamity on European growth.
Professor Hamilton on the shape of the recovery

Across the Curve » Blog Archive » Links

.................

vtv - thanks... lol....

........................

Fiduciary Doodle - I check back in with my last employer and hear my brother's (also at a large GC) stories... They are not hiring in SoCal thats for sure...

I wonder if we could count say half of the still employed people as "jobs that were saved"

(First time I read that 'save or create' line I didnt really know what to think.... How could an person sell such BS)

California: Financial Emergency; State Will Issue IOUs; Government Offices Will Reduce Employee Hours

The article requested is no longer available.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/Sky1Y72Wd-I/AAAAAAAAEQo/Grf5yyGqGrg/s1600-h/Schwarzenegger-Announcing-V.jpg

The working class hoi ploy during the French Revolution that stirred up things were known as "sans-culottes"

Ours will be the "sans-credit"

This won't peak until we see soup lines and people with 90% of their mortgages paid off getting foreclosed.

The harder the crash, the bigger the deflation, the better. The economy will not become healthy til this happens.

Warning more green shoots below....

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Orders placed at U.S. factories in May rose for the third time in four months, as demand for aircraft, computers and machinery increased. U.S. May Factory Orders Rise Most Since June 2008 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

What happens to the 690 or so folks that don't get jobs as cable guys or sales reps working on advertising commissions?

Ah, Baudrillard--finally, we are gettin' somewhere!

When we realize how (and by whom) our language has been devalued, made meaningless, we understand that financial derivatives (those weapons of wealth destruction), were just the natural outflow of that corruption.

Postmodernism is not a philosophy to which one subscribes but rather a condition with which one must contend--we are in it, neck-deep, and our cherished institutions are not holding up any more. Yeats knew it in 1920; some still believe (because it behooves them to pretend at least--think of the children!!) we can resurrect the dead king, but we can't--and the trillions we pump into his veins are truly in vanity. Not fair, either.

I want to start low-balling people with bimmers for sale on craigslist in OC. The current 3-series looks nice. Should I start now or wait til later in the month?

Burns,

Without sales engineers join the soup line....

yup. and still employed. And getting calls from recruiters about semi-decent jobs still floating around.

sales people - put down the rolodex, pick up a programming book and get with the program!

Burn: you're about to let your alligator mouth overload your hummingbird ass.

Hey all.

Making my 5th(!) attempt to meet the UPS man for DSL kit delivery.

Given the pace of things so far, assuming I hook up with him today, I should be online some time around the 15th of July. =)

blonde angel,

hello, anymore poetry? been awhile...

@burn,

I am an engineer, and yes we understand things and can do things that sales people can't. But after running my own business a few years, I grew to greatly appreciate the hard work of sales people. No sales, no business. It's that simple. A great company has great products and great sales. Just my opinion.

Burn,

I met many a programmer with great software but no customers.. Google has a ton of sales people...
Remember Hunters and salespeople are 2 different animals...Some people take orders, some people go out and find them....

"Study the history of FORE Systems vs Cisco or Oracle vs Sybase. Sales can trump engineering. In fact it usually does. "

proof that sales is a corrupt endeavor.

Sales ALWAYS trumps engineering.

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Hours Worked

volker-I though we all agreed not to use any semblance of the name Trump here...

Pometry? Have you seen this one?

At the Graveyard of Empires

Ceremonial hors d’oeuvres are served before the diners consume the entrée, then the speech ringing endorsements of boots on the ground, the foundation of security and governance in place. We are controlled by the way things look, not by the way they are. After, on screen, we see important people with expensive educations who work in tall buildings, filled with expensive technologies, whose sole purpose is to negotiate a mind into a position to labor and to die for money made out of smoke for the promise of a life you are not allowed to live. Then, a lull in the air… a new scene: some driftwood hiatus in the long decline of principles and manners. I don’t know which one went through the door first. The watchers turn on each other, don’t take kindly to that Jeremiah thing. They don’t care for Cassandra. They prefer the Sisyphus, Step‘n Fetchit, bend over and wait scenario. Love attracted some, but it was always hard to find and it had an enormous costume closet frequently disappeared into and someone was forced to follow after…think of it as an experiment. It is a canvas but the canvas isn’t blank. Some came for hate. Then they put it out on the street and they sold it for whatever they could get and every time somebody porked it, it got a little less attractive until they just spit on it and punched out its lights and threw it in an empty, weeded lot and used it for target practice. Every bullet a sperm engine, pregnant with pigs. Now we stumble through the final chapters of The Last Exit to Brooklyn. Pain is a marvelous educator and loss is a fine reminder until one day, the whip hand of the heart’s primal fears becomes the master of our lives. You help them turn the wheel. Your blood and the blood of your loved ones grease the turning wheel. Stand down.

BURN (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 7/2/2009 - 10:57 am
proof that sales is a corrupt endeavor.

Attempting to take both sides. Sales can't be both simultaneously irrelevant and morally repugnant due to how sales efforts displace quality as the arbiter of product success.

Perhaps we can distinguish between sales and ad-men.

W/o salesmen, there is no commerce--nothing moves.

With ad-men, the sales process becomes corrupted by the injection of derivative concerns.

"Someone should introduce these wonderful people to girls"

They have been introduced to cats, with deleterious effects to the cats.

YouTube - An Engineer's Guide to Cats

Think of the poor pussies!

Advertising creates nothing. It exploits humans' frail attempts to secure a place in the cosmos; it undermines a natural rhythm -- do 80 year old men really need boners like the Viagra con-men try to tell 'em?

Oh?

Really?

Well, let's hear those...

tap
tap
tap
tap

Waiting....

Prostate cancer is almost 100% in men older than a certain age. The regular cleansing of this vital organ is necessary to mitigate the effect.

Now, all I need is a girl friend...

Doodie--Those who have preceded me make my life more complicated. You and I share the same disdain for the one who would be such.

Culturally, one can find that the term sell, sales, salesman, etc can be found to be negatively defined in the OED. One has to read deep into the etymology to discover the positive definitions.

"Prostate cancer is almost 100% in men older than a certain age. The regular cleansing of this vital organ is necessary to mitigate the effect"

I bet the Viagra industry came up with that stat.

The wonderful thing about the human mind and body, I find, is that they instinctively let go when it is time to let go. When it's time to stop eating chocolate cake, one simply
loses the appetite for it. When it's time to stop making love, one simply stops without regrets. When it's time to die, one just makes a graceful exit. This is how it is with people who really learn to listen to their bodies and minds. People who watch TV, on the other hand, just let themselves get whipped up into a froth of mindless acquisitiveness and panic about terrorists. When their hair turns gray or white, they dye it. When their body tells them it's time to stop procreational activities, they wolf down Viagra. When their
body says it's time to die now, they go bankrupt trying to stay alive an extra couple of weeks. It's pathetic, really.

I''ve not received my papers on the promotion yet, BR, so, as far as that goes, I'm still just god.

"You insufferable prig. Have you no compassion for your fellow human?"

I'm the fucking bodhisattva of compassion. I suffer right along side with them. That's com-with-passion/suffering. Medicating suffering just prolongs it.

There's no need to cleanse it.

It is perfect as it is.

Stiff or flaccid. It's perfect. Just. As. Is.