we're reaching that point that the YOY comparisons arent useful. It's the same with price decreases for housing. Once it is one year from the peak, you automatically get a warped yoy calculation that will fall over time for any steady price decline. Then after another year, you stabilize.
REmember, June08 auto sales were already down to a 13.8 mil rate and dropping. The next few YOY figures will all look good, even if there is no increase in sales.
GDD9000, that is why I've added the previous month comparisons - and will post the total sales (annualized) later today. I think it is very likely that auto sales have bottomed ...
Dont disagree with you CR on the bottom - i just dislike the msm reporting when people get all jacked about YOY. As long as you include both the YOY, the monthly, and the SAAR, you can make more sense of it.
one thing ive been trying to do, without much luck, is get at the state by state auto sales, so we can see how the housing bust, no more heloc states are dragging down US sales overall.
CR- if this is bottom it calls for some Queen..but my forecast is bottom is not in...Too much carryover on tradein, 130% LTV has to come back, credit profiles are just plain ugly...Cars are becoming unbling!
I'm still driving my 2001 Ford Ranger.
Basic farm truck with rubberized flooring; stick shift.
107K miles.
I'm driving her until the tires fall off and then...
new tires!
@ Dawg, 1 sale per day at each dealership?
Glad I'm not selling Fords anymore; I'd have a bloody ass from the Sales Manager Mauling.
MOT - cash for clunkers has very little upside potential. There is limited financing, and it is likely that the stringent qualification criteria will prevent many owners from taking advantage of the program. Especially the issue about the $4500 not being in addition to the trade in value. Thats a killer. Its only going to get junk off the road, and the junk is going to be owned by the types of people who can only afford junk, and I dont see how they then qualify as NOW becoming new car owners, if they didnt manage to during the credit bubble.
HUD SECRETARY DONOVAN ANNOUNCES EXPANDED ELIGIBILITY FOR MAKING HOME AFFORDABLE REFINANCING
Announces eligibility for borrowers up to 125% underwater in Las Vegas with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Congresswoman Dina Titus
WASHINGTON - U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan today announced an expansion of the Obama Administration's Home Affordable Refinance Program to include participation by borrowers who are current but up to 125 percent underwater on their mortgage. Under authorization provided by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, borrowers whose mortgages are currently owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now be allowed to refinance those loans according to the terms of the Home Affordable Refinance program established earlier this year.
Why is Donovan making this announcement? He is not their regulator.
I'm betting these guys get rolled into the FHA soon. Which would be the right thing to do.
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/1/2009 - 9:42 am
I've never been to a car dealership, and never plan to.
When the electric car is affordable I'll rent or borrow one to check it out, then order factory direct.
That's the future of all new vehicle sales not just electrics.
Wait until you see what that does to the sale tax base of dealer dependent cities.
Shill-answer to your question...credit criminals..
I looked at a application from dealer today in east coast where the guy has a bmw lease, 31 lates, 461 fica, military pay, authorized user revolving and collections up the ying yang..
Holding off uncle Sam's smack? Ford? Did you miss the $5bil in loans the other day? They are slightly better off than dead. Chrysler and/or GM are doomed. Their doom is about all that will allow Ford to survive. The correct path was to obliterate Chrysler and push their already built inventory into the ocean for coral reefs.
I noticed where the BHO administration is threatening the BK judge, saying the FedGov will drop support for GM by July 10th. Can the BK judge hold one of the parties to a BK process in contempt?
uly 1 (Bloomberg) -- As many as one in five U.S. hotel may default on their loans by the end of 2010 as the recession forces companies to spend less on travel and perks, according to Kenneth Rosen, an economist at the University of California.
maybe there's a disconnect with "Cash for Clunkers" that I'm missing.
“There are going to be thousands of cars sold that would’ve never been sold,” [Dept of Transportation Secretary Ray] LaHood said. “This is the strongest incentive I have ever seen offered by car manufacturers. If this doesn’t work, I don’t know what will.”
The comments echo optimism by dealers, analysts and carmakers that the effort will help rebuild demand battered by the recession. June sales to be announced today may show drops of 36 percent at Chrysler LLC, 30 percent at General Motors Corp. and 17 percent for Ford Motor Co., according to the average of five analyst forecasts. . . .
The program may boost new-vehicle sales 10 percent through year-end at AutoNation Inc., the biggest publicly traded U.S. car retailer, Chief Executive Officer Mike Jackson said in an interview last week.
Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said in a note to clients last week that the plan “should give an additional boost to an economy already set to recover.”
"That's the future of all new vehicle sales not just electrics. " [factory direct]
And the present for some. I should hope so, that kind of deflation is great.
I haven't followed the physics or engineering, but some time soon we will be able to store wind, wave and sun power to turn a wheel at a decent price, and they aren't making more dinosaurs. I'll place a bet...
Not sure, but I hope not..I provide software to the auto industry to pull credit via applications on the net...This is pretty much standart fair now...credit criminals are hoping for a jubliee, subprime lenders creating tiered loan programs that would make you cry and score resets...the car companies only hope
I'm one of the new kids on the block (board ), what happened to timmyone? His rantings, like michaels before him seemed to be out of character for them too me. Maybe they were good boy's while I was reading recently. Anywho, where is nova? I havent seen her post in awhile.
The California Association of Realtors expects to make sharp downward revisions in its recent monthly reports of soaring home sales in the San Diego area, Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist of the trade group, said in an interview.
Those revisions will mean modest downward revisions in statewide sales, he added.
The revisions are likely to be announced in late July, when the Realtor group reports home sales for June.
The problem resulted from a glitch in data from a multiple-listing service in San Diego, Mr. Kleinhenz said.
He said a change in computer systems used there resulted in incorrect data being sent to the Realtor association over the past year or so.
The program may boost new-vehicle sales 10 percent through year-end at AutoNation Inc., the biggest publicly traded U.S. car retailer, Chief Executive Officer Mike Jackson said in an interview last week.
Mike Jackson...I wish he would retire...he begins everyday with eggs, juice and his new pitch on how to beg for more govt assistance to get people to his stores.
also would be interesting to note that no autonation stores lost dealers to cuts....hmmmmm....strings anyone...
""That's the future of all new vehicle sales not just electrics. " [factory direct]"
I just realized that Amazon could be your next car dealer. Think about it:
Online reviews
Direct ordering
No annoying dealers or sales sharks
Best of all: No Sales Tax.
And, it would be a boon for independent service providers, who would get the servicing work because Amazon would not want to have a nexus in the state they sold in to. Couldn't happen to a nicer CARtel than the current dealers.
We need to starve the financial beast. Given how bad shape the economy is the DJIA should be at 6000 now but people keep bidding it up...anyway....
What are our demands? Here's part of the list:
* All the financial fraudsters are investigated, indicted, and prosecuted. This includes the con artists in CONgress who got "special deals" from Mozilo and his "Friends of Angelo" program (and who are blocking a subpoena to BofA as it would implicate them), it includes those past and current members of Government Sachs, and it includes all those other
financial "professionals" who deceived Americans and others with their sale of toxic exploding mortgage products along with the securities supposedly backed by them.
* Glass-Steagall is restored, in full, and all the firms that can't exist under it are broken up. Period.
Compared to recent numbers, that looks like an increase.
Could have been much worse! Green shoots?
125LTV refis just announced.
June sales down, double down and make more in Q3...double-edge knife catching.
--bh
You guys are funny...I see brown shoots in the form of repossessions that will come from the junk they are buying again....
we're reaching that point that the YOY comparisons arent useful. It's the same with price decreases for housing. Once it is one year from the peak, you automatically get a warped yoy calculation that will fall over time for any steady price decline. Then after another year, you stabilize.
REmember, June08 auto sales were already down to a 13.8 mil rate and dropping. The next few YOY figures will all look good, even if there is no increase in sales.
BHO SS fix, NO TAX INCREASE - Read my Lips
Remove cap (increase taxes)
Reduce benefit
Means test (so those that contribute the most get nothing)
SS is a tax. Abolish SS - Period.
Ghost, link? source?
125LTV refis just announced.
I won't accept any point under 200.
GDD9000, that is why I've added the previous month comparisons - and will post the total sales (annualized) later today. I think it is very likely that auto sales have bottomed ...
best wishes
As a point of reference Ford's 148k units is 1 vehicle per day per dealership. That doesn't pay the electric bill.
Dont disagree with you CR on the bottom - i just dislike the msm reporting when people get all jacked about YOY. As long as you include both the YOY, the monthly, and the SAAR, you can make more sense of it.
GM, Ford suspend Russia production
The article requested is not available.
Ug0ECr9KCK7_jQ4ULCgdG4yXwD995NF080
I bet we are at bottom with the "Cash for Clunkers" coming online soon.
one thing ive been trying to do, without much luck, is get at the state by state auto sales, so we can see how the housing bust, no more heloc states are dragging down US sales overall.
CR- if this is bottom it calls for some Queen..but my forecast is bottom is not in...Too much carryover on tradein, 130% LTV has to come back, credit profiles are just plain ugly...Cars are becoming unbling!
YouTube - Queen Fat Bottom Girls
I'm still driving my 2001 Ford Ranger.
Basic farm truck with rubberized flooring; stick shift.
107K miles.
I'm driving her until the tires fall off and then...
new tires!
@ Dawg, 1 sale per day at each dealership?
Glad I'm not selling Fords anymore; I'd have a bloody ass from the Sales Manager Mauling.
MOT - cash for clunkers has very little upside potential. There is limited financing, and it is likely that the stringent qualification criteria will prevent many owners from taking advantage of the program. Especially the issue about the $4500 not being in addition to the trade in value. Thats a killer. Its only going to get junk off the road, and the junk is going to be owned by the types of people who can only afford junk, and I dont see how they then qualify as NOW becoming new car owners, if they didnt manage to during the credit bubble.
delete - darn double post
gdd-might be able to pick up in registration data supplied by states...I'll see if some of my contacts can get it for you....
credit criminal - i think i looked at that already, and it was way too volatile to make much sense of. Plus, i think there was a very bad data lag.
With all the private sales and repo's out there who in their right mind would even consider a new Auto purchase....silliness.
I've never been to a car dealership, and never plan to.
When the electric car is affordable I'll rent or borrow one to check it out, then order factory direct.
Cash for Clunkers is just a way to get new fools on the lot, IMO.
HUD News Release 09-104
HUD SECRETARY DONOVAN ANNOUNCES EXPANDED ELIGIBILITY FOR MAKING HOME AFFORDABLE REFINANCING
Announces eligibility for borrowers up to 125% underwater in Las Vegas with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Congresswoman Dina Titus
WASHINGTON - U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan today announced an expansion of the Obama Administration's Home Affordable Refinance Program to include participation by borrowers who are current but up to 125 percent underwater on their mortgage. Under authorization provided by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, borrowers whose mortgages are currently owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now be allowed to refinance those loans according to the terms of the Home Affordable Refinance program established earlier this year.
Why is Donovan making this announcement? He is not their regulator.
I'm betting these guys get rolled into the FHA soon. Which would be the right thing to do.
OTOH,
It's not the sales decline but the fact that Ford is gaining "market-share" in a rapidly declining market.
Hurray!
--bh
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/1/2009 - 9:42 am
I've never been to a car dealership, and never plan to.
When the electric car is affordable I'll rent or borrow one to check it out, then order factory direct.
That's the future of all new vehicle sales not just electrics.
Wait until you see what that does to the sale tax base of dealer dependent cities.
Shill-answer to your question...credit criminals..
I looked at a application from dealer today in east coast where the guy has a bmw lease, 31 lates, 461 fica, military pay, authorized user revolving and collections up the ying yang..
was looking at a 2008 bmw now....
credit scores are so yesterday....
Shaun Donovan is much more dreamy than James Lockhart.
For Las Vegas, they'll have to increase the LTV to 150%.
Thanks Ghost.
Do the refi's then make these recourse loans if they weren't previously?
"Do the refi's then make these recourse loans if they weren't previously? "
I believe it varies by state, not that up on state law, but I believe the answer is YES.
Electric car=coal powered car. (50% of electricity is generated from coal)
I still like a comment I saw yesterday: Support Capitalism: buy a Ford.
I know F is screwed just as much as the others, but they deserve some credit for holding off Uncle Sam's smack and some better sales too!
dr munch (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/1/2009 - 9:49 am
Electric car=coal powered car. (50% of electricity is generated from coal)
Watch that number spike as dozens of nuclear plants are decommissioned in the next few years. The econuts have some tough rationalizations to justify.
Ford June U.S. sales down 11% to 148,153 units
Ford to increase Q3 production to 485,000 vehicles
These two statements do not belong together
Holding off uncle Sam's smack? Ford? Did you miss the $5bil in loans the other day? They are slightly better off than dead. Chrysler and/or GM are doomed. Their doom is about all that will allow Ford to survive. The correct path was to obliterate Chrysler and push their already built inventory into the ocean for coral reefs.
Porche down 66%...wow
Porche down 66%? Are penises bigger all of a sudden?
OT, apologies, for your consideration:
The VIX Index: Buy When High, Go When Low -- Seeking Alpha
run for the hills...
creditcriminalslovetarp....did he get the loan?
I noticed where the BHO administration is threatening the BK judge, saying the FedGov will drop support for GM by July 10th. Can the BK judge hold one of the parties to a BK process in contempt?
C&C....more to follow...credit score destruction is upon us...unless they open up the spigots to subprime I see no bottom.....
- Bloomberg.com
This guy knows his stuff.
uly 1 (Bloomberg) -- As many as one in five U.S. hotel may default on their loans by the end of 2010 as the recession forces companies to spend less on travel and perks, according to Kenneth Rosen, an economist at the University of California.
maybe there's a disconnect with "Cash for Clunkers" that I'm missing.
“There are going to be thousands of cars sold that would’ve never been sold,” [Dept of Transportation Secretary Ray] LaHood said. “This is the strongest incentive I have ever seen offered by car manufacturers. If this doesn’t work, I don’t know what will.”
The comments echo optimism by dealers, analysts and carmakers that the effort will help rebuild demand battered by the recession. June sales to be announced today may show drops of 36 percent at Chrysler LLC, 30 percent at General Motors Corp. and 17 percent for Ford Motor Co., according to the average of five analyst forecasts. . . .
The program may boost new-vehicle sales 10 percent through year-end at AutoNation Inc., the biggest publicly traded U.S. car retailer, Chief Executive Officer Mike Jackson said in an interview last week.
Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said in a note to clients last week that the plan “should give an additional boost to an economy already set to recover.”
Bloomberg.com
"That's the future of all new vehicle sales not just electrics. " [factory direct]
And the present for some. I should hope so, that kind of deflation is great.
I haven't followed the physics or engineering, but some time soon we will be able to store wind, wave and sun power to turn a wheel at a decent price, and they aren't making more dinosaurs. I'll place a bet...
Shill,
Not sure, but I hope not..I provide software to the auto industry to pull credit via applications on the net...This is pretty much standart fair now...credit criminals are hoping for a jubliee, subprime lenders creating tiered loan programs that would make you cry and score resets...the car companies only hope
Tell me why, again, we need a lot more new cars?
It's only 10 Pacific time and already with the multiple posts. No way I can keep up.
Chrysler down 42%...they will not survive...they should have just folded!
BREAKING
Chrysler June U.S. sales down 42% to 117,457 units
I'm one of the new kids on the block (board
), what happened to timmyone? His rantings, like michaels before him seemed to be out of character for them too me. Maybe they were good boy's while I was reading recently. Anywho, where is nova? I havent seen her post in awhile.
yeah
duck and cover! HERE BE DRAGONS!
Those green shoots? Never mind...........
Glitch Inflated Home-Sales Data - WSJ.com (sub may be required)
The California Association of Realtors expects to make sharp downward revisions in its recent monthly reports of soaring home sales in the San Diego area, Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist of the trade group, said in an interview.
Those revisions will mean modest downward revisions in statewide sales, he added.
The revisions are likely to be announced in late July, when the Realtor group reports home sales for June.
The problem resulted from a glitch in data from a multiple-listing service in San Diego, Mr. Kleinhenz said.
He said a change in computer systems used there resulted in incorrect data being sent to the Realtor association over the past year or so.
The program may boost new-vehicle sales 10 percent through year-end at AutoNation Inc., the biggest publicly traded U.S. car retailer, Chief Executive Officer Mike Jackson said in an interview last week.
Mike Jackson...I wish he would retire...he begins everyday with eggs, juice and his new pitch on how to beg for more govt assistance to get people to his stores.
also would be interesting to note that no autonation stores lost dealers to cuts....hmmmmm....strings anyone...
And that's with some chrysler dealers giving cars away.
Yeah, me FINLANDER is about 1000 times more against SHTF? GHOSTBUSTERS ___Z THERE!
I smell bacon. Expect the Pig™ momentarily.
""That's the future of all new vehicle sales not just electrics. " [factory direct]"
I just realized that Amazon could be your next car dealer. Think about it:
And, it would be a boon for independent service providers, who would get the servicing work because Amazon would not want to have a nexus in the state they sold in to. Couldn't happen to a nicer CARtel than the current dealers.
ZeroHedge's piece today "Is Goldman Legally Frontrunning Its Clients? " is a gem...the short answer is yes.
Damn! Pigged™ in my own Pig™ prediction!
Sm landlord- in play already with another company hdqtred in your town...
Damn! Pigged™ in my own Pig™ prediction!
The word for that is prepignition.
Many state laws do not allow car manufacturers to sell direct. This will protect dealers and their tax revenue stream. It ain't gonna change.
We need to starve the financial beast. Given how bad shape the economy is the DJIA should be at 6000 now but people keep bidding it up...anyway....
What are our demands? Here's part of the list:
* All the financial fraudsters are investigated, indicted, and prosecuted. This includes the con artists in CONgress who got "special deals" from Mozilo and his "Friends of Angelo" program (and who are blocking a subpoena to BofA as it would implicate them), it includes those past and current members of Government Sachs, and it includes all those other
financial "professionals" who deceived Americans and others with their sale of toxic exploding mortgage products along with the securities supposedly backed by them.
* Glass-Steagall is restored, in full, and all the firms that can't exist under it are broken up. Period.
good articles: Interesting Finance & Economic articles