With all this CRE coming online, how long will it retard demand? The last time I saw it this bad in AZ, it was the better part of a decade, but that was because the RTC slowly liquidated their properties.
Damned Wayback machine doesn't have any pages of the ISM so I can look at a YoY change in the manufacturing index.
Just wanted to shout a big thanks to everyone for the donations to hoocoodanode. We didn't hit our target, but came pretty close. I'm working towards moving us to a less expensive server, and I'm considering putting up an ad, so we don't have to come back to you with hat in hand next year.
Good point. I took down the widget, but on second thought should leave it up for now. I'm working on a new design for the site, and will incorporate a simple button when it's done.
Just why is there so much debt in the Anglo-Saxon world? Bankers and regulators know well that it is in nobody’s long-term interests to have allowed borrowing to escalate to a position where the US now owes far more, as a multiple of the economy, than at the start of the Great Depression.
The answer is capitalism’s dirty little secret: excessive lending was the only way to maintain the living standards of the vast bulk of the population at a time when wealth was being concentrated in the hands of an elite.
At the same time, our unwillingness to say no to great society programs, without raising taxes to pay for them, meant that we became beholden to the bond market for funding ongoing operations, this creating an elevated base of required income to service our rising debt.
We should all come to terms with the fact that these are structural issues needing structural solutions; they need to be enforced over a longer time period than any one government’s term. So we need a new political consensus, one aimed at reducing overall debt levels while reducing inequality by encouraging education, entrepreneurship and investment in innovation.
ZeroHedge is rattling some much larger cages than this humble panda's. Methinks Tyler needs to start being concerned for his own personal safety lest he suffer a sudden, unexpected "heart attack."
So the 0.9% MoM decline from the revised lower April number...MoM is still a distraction, the ~12% decline YoY and ~12% YTD...and what does the project pipeline ahead look like?
Anyone tracking the revisions, what was the change from the original April 2009 release? And has anyone examined the "normal" revisions made back to January, 2007 in this release?
@ dum luk (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/1/2009 - 7:48 am
km4,
I didn't quite hear that - the fiddle is playing too loudly and I think the toast must be burning cuz I smell the faint odor of smoke. Party on.
Nero ( Obama? ) fiddled while Rome ( America? ) burned
Can you hear me now
On that note, once again a sincere thank you to the Obama administration, for publicly "leaking" details of their proposals (almost all dreadful) in advance so that bloggers could chew them up.
That requires an integrity missing from virtually all the other Administrations of my lifetime.
Re: Construction spending. I have a long time good friend who was a V.P. for California Pacific homes (Div of the Irvine Co). I tried to talk to him and his wife last year........they got offended. He just got laid off, they were so suprised ($350k annnual salary including bonus).
Re: Manufacturing post previous. I work for a technology / manufacturing company in San Diego and I just got hit with a 10% salary reduction...........still have a job, already have my parachute packed.....
Effective Demand-
these are awesome. thank you for posting this. I think the next major thing to watch is the NTS's since we know NODs are sky high, but actual REOs are very minimal. There's a large gap that needs to be filled :-/
I know you probably thought of this but it sure would be nice if the comments were numbered. If I leave off now I can get back to where I left off by using the time however it would be nice if they were numbered.
We need to starve the financial beast. Given how bad shape the economy is the DJIA should be at 6000 now but people keep bidding it up...anyway....
What are our demands? Here's part of the list:
* All the financial fraudsters are investigated, indicted, and prosecuted. This includes the con artists in CONgress who got "special deals" from Mozilo and his "Friends of Angelo" program (and who are blocking a subpoena to BofA as it would implicate them), it includes those past and current members of Government Sachs, and it includes all those other
financial "professionals" who deceived Americans and others with their sale of toxic exploding mortgage products along with the securities supposedly backed by them.
* Glass-Steagall is restored, in full, and all the firms that can't exist under it are broken up. Period.
Mayday!
No construction around here that I can see.
Is anyone seeing this,
CNBC headline: Auto task force member to court: If GM deal not completed by July 10, will withdraw GM DIP financing
ratm
I couldn't find the headline. Could you post a link?
It was flashed in red on the bottom of the screen. Don't have a link yet.
With all this CRE coming online, how long will it retard demand? The last time I saw it this bad in AZ, it was the better part of a decade, but that was because the RTC slowly liquidated their properties.
Damned Wayback machine doesn't have any pages of the ISM so I can look at a YoY change in the manufacturing index.
ratm,
what else is new..scare tactics worked before....
OT- anyone web developers here with some examples?
GM May Have To Sell China Unit To Get Taxpayers Back Their Money
GM May Have To Sell China Unit To Get Taxpayers Back Their Money – 24/7 Wall St.
My, there sure is a lot of volatility for such a low VIX.
At last count Liddy said he only had $1.6TT left to unwind on the books. Wonder how that's going...
CNBC just reported that new L.A. sales tax kicked in today, 9.75%
"Which means that if you're going to buy a car it wouldn't be here," so said the reporter.
CA is sending out IOUs as payments.
I fear for the future of this economy.
48 states are short on money.
It's only a matter of time...Another stellar day for volume! Can this be the lowest on record?
Hey all,
Just wanted to shout a big thanks to everyone for the donations to hoocoodanode. We didn't hit our target, but came pretty close. I'm working towards moving us to a less expensive server, and I'm considering putting up an ad, so we don't have to come back to you with hat in hand next year.
Thanks again!
Apparently we're going to have a "construction-less" recovery in the second half.
High sales tax for luxury consumption is salvation. No breaks, no more.
What are you short? We'll get there today.
Ken,
Thank you for all you've done for the community here.
I'll chip in again next year if necessary. A very easily justified investment - the only sure bet in town these days.
Thanks to you Ken(and CR) for giving us such a wonderful place to comment.
Where is the donate button?
ZeroHedge is mighty slow today. I think Denis sent Tyler a whole slew of new traffic.
"Shush! Don't wake the sheeple! They might be angry."
CR Blog extraordinaire....nuff said..
Good point. I took down the widget, but on second thought should leave it up for now. I'm working on a new design for the site, and will incorporate a simple button when it's done.
RRE and CRE became countercyclical to each other at the start of the century.
Debt is capitalism’s dirty little secret
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Debt is capitalism’s dirty little secret ( Financial Times )
Just why is there so much debt in the Anglo-Saxon world? Bankers and regulators know well that it is in nobody’s long-term interests to have allowed borrowing to escalate to a position where the US now owes far more, as a multiple of the economy, than at the start of the Great Depression.
The answer is capitalism’s dirty little secret: excessive lending was the only way to maintain the living standards of the vast bulk of the population at a time when wealth was being concentrated in the hands of an elite.
At the same time, our unwillingness to say no to great society programs, without raising taxes to pay for them, meant that we became beholden to the bond market for funding ongoing operations, this creating an elevated base of required income to service our rising debt.
We should all come to terms with the fact that these are structural issues needing structural solutions; they need to be enforced over a longer time period than any one government’s term. So we need a new political consensus, one aimed at reducing overall debt levels while reducing inequality by encouraging education, entrepreneurship and investment in innovation.
Put it back now.
I want to cover the bets I made with Nemo and Basel, even though they haven't been settled. If I win they still owe.
CA's IOUs could become the basis for a whole new class of securitization.
Debt is capitalism’s dirty little secret
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
Hyperinflation Nation
National Inflation Association
The button is dead.
SEC? NYSE? GS? CNBC?
ZeroHedge is rattling some much larger cages than this humble panda's. Methinks Tyler needs to start being concerned for his own personal safety lest he suffer a sudden, unexpected "heart attack."
km4,
I didn't quite hear that - the fiddle is playing too loudly and I think the toast must be burning cuz I smell the faint odor of smoke. Party on.
KCoop you'd make a lousy Ponzi schemer.
kcoop...thanks for "saving" the comments section here at CR from the hostile take-over of haloscan
id be willing to contribute again if the ad thing doesn work out best...or... in addition to...if needed
we O U
So the 0.9% MoM decline from the revised lower April number...MoM is still a distraction, the ~12% decline YoY and ~12% YTD...and what does the project pipeline ahead look like?
Anyone tracking the revisions, what was the change from the original April 2009 release? And has anyone examined the "normal" revisions made back to January, 2007 in this release?
@ dum luk (profile) wrote on Wed, 7/1/2009 - 7:48 am
km4,
I didn't quite hear that - the fiddle is playing too loudly and I think the toast must be burning cuz I smell the faint odor of smoke. Party on.
Nero ( Obama? ) fiddled while Rome ( America? ) burned
Can you hear me now
This headline made Bloomie for about 5 minutes:
Feldstein Sees Renewed U.S. Slump After ‘Improvement’
Feldstein Sees Renewed U.S. Slump After ‘Improvement’ (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
OT: I added in Trustee Sale graphs for June 2009 for Orange, Ventura, San Diego and Los Angeles County at Effective Demand
km4 wrote 7:41 am
Debt is capitalism’s dirty little secret (and went on to explain how (and why))
km4...you nailed it
On that note, once again a sincere thank you to the Obama administration, for publicly "leaking" details of their proposals (almost all dreadful) in advance so that bloggers could chew them up.
That requires an integrity missing from virtually all the other Administrations of my lifetime.
The GM story
freep.com | | Detroit Free Press
Re: Construction spending. I have a long time good friend who was a V.P. for California Pacific homes (Div of the Irvine Co). I tried to talk to him and his wife last year........they got offended. He just got laid off, they were so suprised ($350k annnual salary including bonus).
Re: Manufacturing post previous. I work for a technology / manufacturing company in San Diego and I just got hit with a 10% salary reduction...........still have a job, already have my parachute packed.....
best of luck, girlbear...
(that thing that happens when preparation meets opportunity)
Effective Demand-
these are awesome. thank you for posting this. I think the next major thing to watch is the NTS's since we know NODs are sky high, but actual REOs are very minimal. There's a large gap that needs to be filled :-/
The coyote has been hanging in the air a long, long time.
I know you probably thought of this but it sure would be nice if the comments were numbered. If I leave off now I can get back to where I left off by using the time however it would be nice if they were numbered.
nincompoop
The easiest way is to search for your own name; that will take you to where you last posted (assuming you posted, then ran, like I do).
We need to starve the financial beast. Given how bad shape the economy is the DJIA should be at 6000 now but people keep bidding it up...anyway....
What are our demands? Here's part of the list:
* All the financial fraudsters are investigated, indicted, and prosecuted. This includes the con artists in CONgress who got "special deals" from Mozilo and his "Friends of Angelo" program (and who are blocking a subpoena to BofA as it would implicate them), it includes those past and current members of Government Sachs, and it includes all those other
financial "professionals" who deceived Americans and others with their sale of toxic exploding mortgage products along with the securities supposedly backed by them.
* Glass-Steagall is restored, in full, and all the firms that can't exist under it are broken up. Period.
good articles: Interesting Finance & Economic articles