Note: the BLS reported a 338,000 decrease in nonfarm private employment in May, so once again ADP was not very useful in predicting the BLS number.
CR, when it comes to employment, are you sure the BLS number is the number we should care about? The BLS birth-death number for May seemed pretty far fetched. See here. Perhaps the ADP number is closer to reality.
CR is stating a fact in saying ADP is not good at predicting the BLS number. What he's not saying is the BLS is the better number, or that you should believe it.
Did you see where CNBC shill Dennis Kneale ripped ZeroHedge on air? "Dennis Calls Out Cowardly Bloggers"...yet another indication that non-traditional journalism is having an impact...
Shine on you Jamie Dimon (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 6:57 pm
[On Yellen, Shine asked:] Can someone explain to me how there can be "too little inflation"?
yet another indication that non-traditional journalism is having an impact...
The MSM is not journalism. It's propaganda. The engineering of consent. Mass media = mass brain washing.
The un-brainwashing process will take some time, but I believe it will happen. CNBC is good barometer - the more they show the need to distort and refute facts, the higher the level of un-brain washing.
Stormtrooper: Let me see your identification.
Obi-Wan: [with a small wave of his hand] You don't need to see his identification.
Stormtrooper: We don't need to see his identification.
Obi-Wan: These aren't the droids you're looking for.
Stormtrooper: These aren't the droids we're looking for.
Obi-Wan: He can go about his business.
Stormtrooper: You can go about your business.
Obi-Wan: Move along.
Stormtrooper: Move along... move along.
I see your other post in prior thread Basel about AIG.
It closed at 1.16 yesterday which implies a 23.20 price based on the split. Pre-market trading is around 19 - so if you are short you should be doing a happy dance.
thanks for the info, but unfortunately, i'm not short (and thankfully not long AIG). Just wondering why there was such a divergence, although it's closed a bit since earlier this morning.
I'm not a trader. I quit gambling years ago. Many call the market a casino.
I'm all for you if you're shorting AIG. Hope you win.
Just seems to me that it's a bet against the house. If the house wants to pump the price so we the people can win, then the price will go up from here. The administration needs to have victories to point to demonstrating how their strategy is working to the net positive benefit of the people. AIG is one of the wider known bets they made. They control the outcome.
I just wouldn't bet my George Washingtons against them.
Basel - psychology is a funny thing. Stock splits are usually viewed as bullish and the stock runs on the news. Reverse splits are usually seen as a desperate move by the company to keep the share price up and the stock usually sells of.
Either way it's akin to changing a $20 bill for 2 $10's (2:1 split) or exchanging 5 $20's for 1 $100 bill - economically our exposure is unchanged...
The one time this is less true - IMO - is for any of the ultra and super ultra long short ETF's. As the ultra shorts get driven closer to zero (FAZ for example) they or their chart goes asymptomatic - meaning it gets harder to drive the price too much lower. Again this is my own thoughts which I'm sure can be disproven by someone with a greater grasp of math than I. So FAZ at $ 4 and change has tons more upside than downside in my opinion - it can lose 10% a day for a long, long time and never get to zero. With the announced reverse split of FAZ I think that dynamic changes the risk reward - I "know" it shouldn't but for some reason it does in my mind.
CR- do they ADP numbers and the BLS (excluding birth death) track more closely? Also do you know if anybody has compared the ADP numbers and the BLS historic numbers (after bench mark revisions).
Shill,
I also heard this morning on local news radio (WSB Atlanta) that the Cap N Tax bill has a $600 million rebate tthat will be awarded to the appliance manufacturer that makes what the government will deem as the most energy efficent appliances--examples: $200 per washer, $75 per dryer. This will probabaly result in more money being funneled to GE.
A few more quotable quotes from that new interview with 94-year-old economist Paul Samuelson: More Samuelson
On Greg Mankiw and Ben Bernanke
The 1980s trained macroeconomics -- like Greg Mankiw and Ben Bernanke and so forth -- became a very complacent group, very ill adapted to meet with a completely unpredictable and new situation, such as we've had.
On Robert Lucas and his acolytes
Those guys were useless at Federal Reserve meetings.
On Alan Greenspan
But the trouble is that he had been an Ayn Rander. You can take the boy out of the cult but you can't take the cult out of the boy.
On Milton Friedman
He was a libertarian to the point of nuttiness.
On bubbles
And I'm not sure most of the people that get caught up in the middle of a bubble can be described as irrational. It seems pretty rational to buy a house and flip it in the next few weeks at a profit when that's been happening for along time. It works both ways.
On the dollar
I think it's almost inevitable that, with a billion people in China wide awake for the first time, and a billion people in India, there's going to be some kind of a terrible run against the dollar. And I doubt it can stay orderly, because all of our own hedge funds will be right in the vanguard of the operation.
Private Joker: How can you shoot AMERICAN women or children?
Door Gunner: Easy! Ya just DO lead 'em a little bit more! Ain't war hell? "
PS. I can't wait for the eventual UN peacekeeper mission inside USofA. Fuck, I even PAY them to get some. Especially, if you flyoverstan scheisse start making trouble.
Samuelson's textbook was standard in my HS and college, in the early 80's. Reasonably balanced but too much math too little politics, I thought then and now.
The California Senate shut down at midnight Tuesday after failing to approve a stopgap plan to stave off the need for IOUs and ease the state's $24.3 billion budget deficit.
If a state senate shuts down and nobody notices, does it make a sound?
I know it's last thread and I'm late to the party, but this is rich......
"Mortgage applications are not among the indicators signaling improvement for the housing sector. MBA's mortgage applications index fell a steep 4.5 percent in the June 26 week to 267.7."
.....at least not this week.
OK, now I'm having a cup of coffee and catching up after our OWN milking party. Good Morning.
Informational overlode is overtaking my nervous system, so see you later...
I'll be in the forest for the trees @ the Bretton Woods institute, if you need to contact me via twitter (the bird kind-no 140 word limit)
The moment one sets foot from the trailhead, money has no meaning. Cash is light enough, but coins are added weight and sometimes they jingle against one-another making annoying metallic sounds. One thin dime should be carried, to more easily open up your bear canister. Credit cards can be used to scrape out pots, but that's about it.
The best antidote to our modern speeded-up world is the wilderness, where it's good just to exist and eat & sleep and observe and do little else, aside from getting there.
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/1/2009 - 1:38 pm
This will probabaly result in more money being funneled to GE.
Not unless they start making the most efficient appliances - they don't right now. Europeans do... Bosch & Electrolux to name two.
It depends on how you define efficient in your model.
I'd have to go back through the numbers, but while the ADP number doesn't ever match up with the BLS number, I know that the BLS number never matches up with the BED numbers that come out 9 months from now; but I'd hazard to say that the ADP number is closer to the BED than the establishment survey has been for the last 3 years.
Robin Hood Bank must act quick, because Sheila is a little dense. Cash all the IOU's you can, then dump them on the FDIC.
Let them call on the Governator.
exactly. The banks will get back-stopped via fdic, so it's a de facto loan, accept for the part where CA agees to pay the FDIC back. In fact, once those IOUs catch on, why go back to budgets at all? Let the usg figure out how it wants to handle it.
The best antidote to our modern speeded-up world is the wilderness, where it's good just to exist and eat & sleep and observe and do little else, aside from getting there.
We need to starve the financial beast. Given how bad shape the economy is the DJIA should be at 6000 now but people keep bidding it up...anyway....
What are our demands? Here's part of the list:
* All the financial fraudsters are investigated, indicted, and prosecuted. This includes the con artists in CONgress who got "special deals" from Mozilo and his "Friends of Angelo" program (and who are blocking a subpoena to BofA as it would implicate them), it includes those past and current members of Government Sachs, and it includes all those other
financial "professionals" who deceived Americans and others with their sale of toxic exploding mortgage products along with the securities supposedly backed by them.
* Glass-Steagall is restored, in full, and all the firms that can't exist under it are broken up. Period.
Oh and before we all forget, happy Fiscal new year........good luck were going to need it.
Basel as far as I know splits do not affect a short position. I have AIG puts and I'm going to try to figure out what my new contract is.
Nonfarm private employment decreased 473,000
I forget, do GM, AIG, and JPM count as private employment anymore?
The reverse split could open the door for the big funds to get back in (since it's now above a nickle) and run the price up.
Government Bails out GE ( but its a hush hush thing )
Jesse's Café Américain: Government Bails Out General Electric
Think how bad unemployment would be if the Obama administration hadn't created or saved those 7mm jobs!
Note: the BLS reported a 338,000 decrease in nonfarm private employment in May, so once again ADP was not very useful in predicting the BLS number.
CR, when it comes to employment, are you sure the BLS number is the number we should care about? The BLS birth-death number for May seemed pretty far fetched. See here
. Perhaps the ADP number is closer to reality.
CR is stating a fact in saying ADP is not good at predicting the BLS number. What he's not saying is the BLS is the better number, or that you should believe it.
Did you see where CNBC shill Dennis Kneale ripped ZeroHedge on air? "Dennis Calls Out Cowardly Bloggers"...yet another indication that non-traditional journalism is having an impact...
Jerry, I didn't take that from what he posted. If anything, CR is a most neutral observer.
What he's not saying? He's not saying anything. He's observing that ADP varies much from BLS.
edit: unless you and I share agreement, perhaps I misred
Shine on you Jamie Dimon (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 6:57 pm
[On Yellen, Shine asked:] Can someone explain to me how there can be "too little inflation"?
Simple, inflation is theft.
I hope everything is clear now.
Basel II left you a reply in prior thread but got pigged.
yet another indication that non-traditional journalism is having an impact...
The MSM is not journalism. It's propaganda. The engineering of consent. Mass media = mass brain washing.
The un-brainwashing process will take some time, but I believe it will happen. CNBC is good barometer - the more they show the need to distort and refute facts, the higher the level of un-brain washing.
Chinese Government Wants To Purchase Another $80 Billion Of Gold!
Numismaster.com
Stormtrooper: Let me see your identification.
Obi-Wan: [with a small wave of his hand] You don't need to see his identification.
Stormtrooper: We don't need to see his identification.
Obi-Wan: These aren't the droids you're looking for.
Stormtrooper: These aren't the droids we're looking for.
Obi-Wan: He can go about his business.
Stormtrooper: You can go about your business.
Obi-Wan: Move along.
Stormtrooper: Move along... move along.
I see your other post in prior thread Basel about AIG.
It closed at 1.16 yesterday which implies a 23.20 price based on the split. Pre-market trading is around 19 - so if you are short you should be doing a happy dance.
Volker,
I think we're saying the same thing. I just tried to point out CR wasn't saying ADP or BLS were better numbers, just that they don't correlate well.
Basel FYI I have the AIG puts against a bond (@66).
Yes, if you were short you are still short, for 1/20 shares.
mike, yogi:
thanks for the info, but unfortunately, i'm not short (and thankfully not long AIG). Just wondering why there was such a divergence, although it's closed a bit since earlier this morning.
Reverse splits are good for the longs about 1 in 20 times.
I'm not a trader. I quit gambling years ago. Many call the market a casino.
I'm all for you if you're shorting AIG. Hope you win.
Just seems to me that it's a bet against the house. If the house wants to pump the price so we the people can win, then the price will go up from here. The administration needs to have victories to point to demonstrating how their strategy is working to the net positive benefit of the people. AIG is one of the wider known bets they made. They control the outcome.
I just wouldn't bet my George Washingtons against them.
"A Forecast With Hope Built In"
"In forecasting unemployment, the president’s economists used the same models that had failed to predict the crisis."
ECONOMIC SCENE; A Forecast With Hope Built In - NY Times
fried: good to see the Grey Lady is catching up.
If Dennis Kneale falls in the forest, would anyone care?
Challenger: Go for throttle-up
Basel - psychology is a funny thing. Stock splits are usually viewed as bullish and the stock runs on the news. Reverse splits are usually seen as a desperate move by the company to keep the share price up and the stock usually sells of.
Either way it's akin to changing a $20 bill for 2 $10's (2:1 split) or exchanging 5 $20's for 1 $100 bill - economically our exposure is unchanged...
The one time this is less true - IMO - is for any of the ultra and super ultra long short ETF's. As the ultra shorts get driven closer to zero (FAZ for example) they or their chart goes asymptomatic - meaning it gets harder to drive the price too much lower. Again this is my own thoughts which I'm sure can be disproven by someone with a greater grasp of math than I. So FAZ at $ 4 and change has tons more upside than downside in my opinion - it can lose 10% a day for a long, long time and never get to zero. With the announced reverse split of FAZ I think that dynamic changes the risk reward - I "know" it shouldn't but for some reason it does in my mind.
CR- do they ADP numbers and the BLS (excluding birth death) track more closely? Also do you know if anybody has compared the ADP numbers and the BLS historic numbers (after bench mark revisions).
Shill,
I also heard this morning on local news radio (WSB Atlanta) that the Cap N Tax bill has a $600 million rebate tthat will be awarded to the appliance manufacturer that makes what the government will deem as the most energy efficent appliances--examples: $200 per washer, $75 per dryer. This will probabaly result in more money being funneled to GE.
My AIG puts were a paired trade against a junk bond, which I suggested here a few months ago.
As of this morning, the bond is up 25% and the puts are up 10%.
A few more quotable quotes from that new interview with 94-year-old economist Paul Samuelson:
More Samuelson
On Greg Mankiw and Ben Bernanke
The 1980s trained macroeconomics -- like Greg Mankiw and Ben Bernanke and so forth -- became a very complacent group, very ill adapted to meet with a completely unpredictable and new situation, such as we've had.
On Robert Lucas and his acolytes
Those guys were useless at Federal Reserve meetings.
On Alan Greenspan
But the trouble is that he had been an Ayn Rander. You can take the boy out of the cult but you can't take the cult out of the boy.
On Milton Friedman
He was a libertarian to the point of nuttiness.
On bubbles
And I'm not sure most of the people that get caught up in the middle of a bubble can be described as irrational. It seems pretty rational to buy a house and flip it in the next few weeks at a profit when that's been happening for along time. It works both ways.
On the dollar
I think it's almost inevitable that, with a billion people in China wide awake for the first time, and a billion people in India, there's going to be some kind of a terrible run against the dollar. And I doubt it can stay orderly, because all of our own hedge funds will be right in the vanguard of the operation.
This will probabaly result in more money being funneled to GE.
Not unless they start making the most efficient appliances - they don't right now. Europeans do... Bosch & Electrolux to name two.
Americans going down. YEAH!
Private Joker: How can you shoot AMERICAN women or children?
Door Gunner: Easy! Ya just DO lead 'em a little bit more! Ain't war hell? "
PS. I can't wait for the eventual UN peacekeeper mission inside USofA. Fuck, I even PAY them to get some. Especially, if you flyoverstan scheisse start making trouble.
Samuelson's textbook was standard in my HS and college, in the early 80's. Reasonably balanced but too much math too little politics, I thought then and now.
State Prepares To Issue IOUs As Budget Deficit Worsens - San Diego News Story - KGTV San Diego
The California Senate shut down at midnight Tuesday after failing to approve a stopgap plan to stave off the need for IOUs and ease the state's $24.3 billion budget deficit.
If a state senate shuts down and nobody notices, does it make a sound?
Or something like that.
CA will issue IOUs, determining the interest rate on Thursday.
Only one bank thus far has agreed publically to accept them. 1.
CA, have a nice day.
State stands to forfeit $3 billion in possible cuts - Los Angeles Times
--bh
I know it's last thread and I'm late to the party, but this is rich......
"Mortgage applications are not among the indicators signaling improvement for the housing sector. MBA's mortgage applications index fell a steep 4.5 percent in the June 26 week to 267.7."
.....at least not this week.
OK, now I'm having a cup of coffee and catching up after our OWN milking party. Good Morning.
Good Morning, BSR.
Hope Milkshake and Belle are doing great this morn.
Jeeze Dryfly, that would be even worse--we would get to pay over half a billion in taxes to support European appliance companiies.
Informational overlode is overtaking my nervous system, so see you later...
I'll be in the forest for the trees @ the Bretton Woods institute, if you need to contact me via twitter (the bird kind-no 140 word limit)
The moment one sets foot from the trailhead, money has no meaning. Cash is light enough, but coins are added weight and sometimes they jingle against one-another making annoying metallic sounds. One thin dime should be carried, to more easily open up your bear canister. Credit cards can be used to scrape out pots, but that's about it.
The best antidote to our modern speeded-up world is the wilderness, where it's good just to exist and eat & sleep and observe and do little else, aside from getting there.
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 7/1/2009 - 1:38 pm
This will probabaly result in more money being funneled to GE.
Not unless they start making the most efficient appliances - they don't right now. Europeans do... Bosch & Electrolux to name two.
It depends on how you define efficient in your model.
It depends on how you define efficient in your model.
Efficiency is easier to define than the word 'is' is.
I'd have to go back through the numbers, but while the ADP number doesn't ever match up with the BLS number, I know that the BLS number never matches up with the BED numbers that come out 9 months from now; but I'd hazard to say that the ADP number is closer to the BED than the establishment survey has been for the last 3 years.
Ron Paul Wins Support to Audit Fed Reserve
FOXNews.com - Mr. Sunshine? Ron Paul Wins Support to Audit Fed Reserve
Ron, I am proud of you., but it will never happen. Bernanke will crash the whole economy before he allows the books to be examined.
Actually, it was a credit union.
Robin Hood Bank must act quick, because Sheila is a little dense. Cash all the IOU's you can, then dump them on the FDIC.
Let them call on the Governator.
yogi,
exactly. The banks will get back-stopped via fdic, so it's a de facto loan, accept for the part where CA agees to pay the FDIC back. In fact, once those IOUs catch on, why go back to budgets at all? Let the usg figure out how it wants to handle it.
--bh
GOOOD. Smell of AMERICAN BLOOD is in the air..can't wait to get some. Just like you did to the Vietnamese...just wait
Morning, HomeG.........yes, they are happy cows, thnx for asking.
If the banks WON'T honor the IOUs with immediate credit, there WILL BE trouble in paradise. They will cash them though.
The best antidote to our modern speeded-up world is the wilderness, where it's good just to exist and eat & sleep and observe and do little else, aside from getting there.
Juvenal - Be careful you don't get locked in.
Is timmyone jas's twin brother?
We need to starve the financial beast. Given how bad shape the economy is the DJIA should be at 6000 now but people keep bidding it up...anyway....
What are our demands? Here's part of the list:
* All the financial fraudsters are investigated, indicted, and prosecuted. This includes the con artists in CONgress who got "special deals" from Mozilo and his "Friends of Angelo" program (and who are blocking a subpoena to BofA as it would implicate them), it includes those past and current members of Government Sachs, and it includes all those other
financial "professionals" who deceived Americans and others with their sale of toxic exploding mortgage products along with the securities supposedly backed by them.
* Glass-Steagall is restored, in full, and all the firms that can't exist under it are broken up. Period.
good articles: Interesting Finance & Economic articles