Pretty insightful for a person who was 15 months late to the party and punch drunk upon arrival..... She must be turning it on in the final leg of Run for Benny's Job.....
Nades,
But hoocoodanode how F... up the banks were, and that the free credit train would de-rail? /SNARK
I did not not even see the free money train, and most likely got ran over by it without even feeling it.
"I also think that a massive shift in consumer behavior is under way—one that will produce great benefits in the long run but slow our recovery in the short term"
Public Service Re-broadcast, given this thread is more relevant
Thomas Hoenig (our favorite Fed President) gave a speech today at the New York University's Stern School of Business.
He continues to take on TBTF and suggests three key components in how to deal with TBTF:
1) Limit leverage ratio, which is very simple to measure and difficult to manipulate (as opposed to risk-based capital ratios)
2) Define a resolution process for failed large financial institutions (Hoenig does say that even existing tools allow to do that, but he argues a clear and "statutorily sanctioned" process blueprint would be of great value)
3) Management of failed institutions must be replaced and stockholders wiped out.
There is a lot more in the speech. For example, Hoenig emphasizes the importance of ensuring fair outcomes when banks fail, which should be free of political influences.
Yet, somehow nobody mentions him as a potential replacement for Geithner or Bernanke. I wonder why ...
Wouldn't it be ironic if the newly "scared straight" American consumer put his savings in a bank, then got the news that the dollar had been devalued? He might as well have bought the new plasma screen.
Also, for those savings to get into productive investments, there has to be a vehicle like stocks or bonds or something. Putting money in a bank will not help the economy, since the banks do not want to loan money any more. And they don't pay any interest worth speaking of on your deposits either. You might as well just buy gold, it doesn't pay much less interest than banks.
KK sometimes its best to just catch the next train....
As for Yellen.... I think something about being in the Fed must obscure their vision... They should get the water checked... Or maybe its an air quality issue... Mold spores perhaps?
John Mauldin had a good write up. Here's the beginning of it.... Cheers!
By David Galland, Casey Research
In November of 1997, my partner and co-editor of The Casey Report, Doug Casey, wrote an article titled "Foundations of Crisis," which leaned heavily on the research of Neil Howe and the late William Strauss.
Howe and Strauss have written many books on how generations determine the course of history and how they will shape America's future. Their forecasts on a wide variety of indicators have turned out to be amazingly accurate. They were among the first to predict (back in the late 1980s) the rise of Boomer-driven culture wars and the simultaneous rise of Gen-X-driven free agency and distrust of government. And they were completely alone back then in predicting, for the post-X "Millennial Generation" (a label they coined), a decline in youth crime and risk taking and an increase in youth civic engagement that would first become apparent around the year 2000. Guess what? For the last ten years, everyone has been noticing exactly these trends among teens and 20somethings.
My question from the last thread regarding SS was not just a joke, I think the unemployment rate still has the hidden drag of issues like this:
Retired At 54. Pensionless At 74? Retired At 54. Pensionless At 74? - NY Times
There are a large number of people who are or will be forced out of retirement, and competing for jobs. I know people have talked about this but SS will be tested much earlier than most pundits tend to say.
As long as interest rates stay at rock bottom, and CPI goes down we are OK, but how long can it stay that way? Maybe if we are lucky another year?
Sorry mid year financial review making me want to get crazy drunk, but I still have some house hold chores to get done.
I never seem to get as hungover on the GnomeBrew as compared to say Swiller High Life..
Depends, some of my Imperials, stouts and meads make me want to remove my brain the next morning. Drinking water and vitamin C helps.
You know the line from Old School, "It just taste soo goood".
Looks like Yellen is calling for more of a jobless recovery...
I remain very confused by a concept of jobless recovery.
Economy can start growing without creating new jobs only work when the exports are surging or Government expenditures are increasing. With the decline in manufacturing and financial services in this country and tgiven he global nature of the economic slowdown, it is hard to imagine how a surge in exports can materialize.
A recovery driven primarily by Government expenditures is not a recovery, but a move to a new socio-economic system
My first hard cider (just apple juice dumped into a 5 gallon carboy and fermented with Champagne yeast) did make me wish I could die.
Called it SnakeBite Cider.
Apt name as I definitely felt snakebitten.
Only if you define wealth as temporary changes in accounting entries, aka unrealized gains.
And yet you can be taxed upon these gains, in the form of property tax, but after the "value" falls, they don't remit the excess.
"I remain very confused by a concept of jobless recovery."
I take that to mean that the economy recovers enough to put the underemployed back to full-time work, but not enough to require bringing on new workers.
I made one
5.5 gals apple juice - OG: 1.046, 2 lbs brown sugar, 2 lbs honey.
ABV 12.7, I call it brain dead cider. If you drink it like beer you are toast.
@nades: Those who now want to talk about the shape of the recovery have the same hopeful "contained' outlook. This is just happy talk when if you believe that when we reach 'bottom' is still unclear.
It also works so much in favor of the banks, doesn't it??? Who cares about financial reform is the system is sound enough to move forward after a hiccup. I can almost hear the bankers now: "The global financial system was more robust and resilient than many gave it credit for. We learned our lesson: we have updated our risk management systems and processes. Additional regulation will just stifle innovation and impair the (nascent) recovery."
"I remain very confused by a concept of jobless recovery."
Usually the full time workers are asked to work over time and pushed to the limit before the company will risk hiring a new body.
Just my personal experience.
From Janet Yellen: "I will be the first to say that it is always difficult to get monetary policy just right. But the Fed’s analytical prowess is top-notch and our forecasting record is second to none. The FOMC is committed to price stability and has a solid track record in achieving it."
Yeah, right ...
Besides, it is this solid track record that is in the way of pushing the market expectations from deflation to inflation.
One more point - Yellen mentioned to avoid completely the issue USD exchange rate and foreign purchases of the future issuances of the US debt. One would think these issues are not irrelevant to either the economic recovery or the Fed's response to the crisis, no?
Can't really argue with anything she said. I do think the Fed and economic policy makers have to operate under the assumption that Commercial Real Estate will be, if not a worst case scenario, a "bad" case scenario and have to be prepared for damage it will cause.
I'm also not terribly worried about the dollar or inflation because the problems are global and China shows no signs whatsoever of solving it's problems. In fact, China's recent stockpiling of commodities under the guise of stimulus will probably cause another bounce down in commodities prices and leave China storing a bunch of stuff that's gone down in value. It may make them wish for more dollars to buy.
sdtfs - indeed. I usually don't recall that datum because where I come from it's generally low, sluggish to move up, and contestable. However, that's not always the case, and as we know from the Taxman's Secret Bible, "if it moveth, breatheth, or groweth, taxeth the living crap out of it".
"Can someone explain to me how there can be "too little inflation"? "
Well, the standard theory is that you have to grow the money supply to match the growth of the economy. Otherwise you get deflation. At least, that's what I remember from way back when I read that stuff.
SM_landlord - the reason Greenspan didnt cash in on his consulting, is that he wasnt very good at it. Fairly well established that he was a terrible economic forecaster (and businessperson) well before he became headoduhFed.
I'm sick and tired of these clueless ivory tower crystal ball readers perched aloft in an airless vacum room looking down upon the real world.. She's needs to get out of the upper stratosphere and come'on down into the real world and breathe some oxygen and car exhaust.
Tom,
I am a mere enthusiast compared to my friends and family. Thanks for info on the pinot which will be put to good use come barrel tasting time and I will be passing that on to my V&E pals. Out here, the vines are looking really shaggy We've just had a helluva heat snap in the delta but that gorgeous breeze is back tonight.
Did the big tasting in SF last Sun and much fun was had by all. My favorite varietal is Viognier and I walked out with a case of that and some Kennedy Lateral. Super easy to get a table for brunch and dinner in SF, settled on Perry's and Lulu's . Drunk some Turley with dinner - we couldn't pass it up as I hadn't seen it that inexpensive on a SF wine list for like ever. However, I think I have a crush on Randall Grahm now.
KK,
what kinds of wine do you like and what price point? American Oak or French oak? Only thing I will never recommend is Chardonnay. I've tried some of the best there is and all I get is eh-its-ok. I just don't have the palette for it.
In other news, today was the last day for many. It seems like everyone on campus is psyching themselves up for a knife fight. The folks who were retiring where the only ones with smiles.
she (and others) keep leaving out one important qualifier : "perceived"...as in "perceived wealth"
The problem with this is that people took out loans on that perceived wealth, and still owe the debt. Deflation kills their perceived assets and makes it harder to pay back the debt.
Our major banks have made excellent progress in establishing the capital buffers needed to continue lending even through a downturn that is more serious than we anticipate. But they are still nursing their wounds and credit will remain tight for some time to come.
Whoa! They are nursing their wounds? I think the taxpayers are doing most of the nursing. Besides, these are mostly self-inflicted wounds. What a bunch of crap.
K - K : That alone tells you something about the nature of the consumer balance sheet....asset side of the ledger fleeting....debt...rather permanent (inflation and writeoffs from creditors aside.) Oddly, people seem to act as if the wealth is more real than the debt, when the reverse is rather true.
Deflationary Jane
First and foremost, bang for the buck.
I don't mind spending $80 for a bottle if I get $80+ of enjoyment out of it.
Otherwise I prefer dry wines, reds over whites. In no way am I a snob, I just want to buy a good product at a good price. Too many reviews miss that fact be it wine, cars, houses, shoes, etc.
So what is the fed going to take into their coffers when it comes to CMBS? Legacy-Yes, AAA-Yes, AA-Yes, A-yes..We will rescue the spectulators, the well to do, the rich who invested in commercial now..Amazing when she states this....
Property prices are falling and vacancy rates are rising in many parts of the country. Given the weak economy, prices could fall more rapidly and developers could face tough times rolling over their loans. Many banks are heavily exposed to commercial real estate loans. An increase in defaults could add to their financial stress, prompting them to tighten credit. The Fed and Treasury are providing loans to investors in securitized commercial mortgages, which should be a big help. But a risk remains of a severe shakeout in this sector.
Tying in the last thread's porn comments and the general downward spiral of the economy, did anyone see Hung last Sunday? I swear the writers have to have been CR readers.
K - K : if you like value, try dipping into Spanish, Chilean and to some extent Argentinean wines (a bit too much junk still in the latter). Pinot will generally bust up your bank, and you have to be serious fan to want to pay that money. Plus, if you have a good advisor, for the prices you pay for CA and OR pinots, you can get more interesting wines for Burgundy. It's just that without the advisor, your hit ratio will be much lower and you'll waste more money on the French wines. But you really have to know your styles with Pinot, because it has evolved along a few different lines/styles.
Why is it that the media lapdogs simply repeat the recession will end later this year. The recession end call is merely a technicality. How exactly does the gov't borrowing money to run through the income statement as the top line shrinks constitute the end of anything. More like the beginning. Nor does anyone ever tackle how the economy at the new potential and normalized rates can possibly service the debt being accrued. The no recession call is like jumping up and down about an equal weighted survey that takes into account rising equity prices with zero fundamental support. Garbage in garbage out. The new made in the USA.
K - K : if you like value, try dipping into Spanish, Chilean and to some extent Argentinean wines (a bit too much junk still in the latter).
I have tried and like a lot of Chilean and Argentinian wines, I have not found many Spanish ones here.
I was told once that when the economy is in the tubes, the Argentinians tend to export more of the low end because it can't be consumed locally, and it gets blended into other wines and not really well.
The Australian wines are rather in-expensive but I have not found any gems yet, but I'll keep on looking.
Right, Yellenisms of the moment dispatched. What else is going on?
Nikki managed to close morning trading up everso slightly, nikkei.com calling the Tankan survey "lackluster", which is code for shite, and dull shite at that; Hang Seng down, ASX, NZX, Singapore all elmo.
And tomorrow's Pony Day! Well done everyone. The long first-half nightmare is over.
"I also think that a massive shift in consumer behavior is under way—one that will produce great benefits in the long run
"great benefits" = less access to credit, less stupid spending on things like overpriced college educations, permanently higher unemployment, and wage stagnation for a generation. You tell it janet.
KK,
the tough part is you are in Hawaii so what's available for your price point will vary. Then again, $80 is baby silveroak territory to me and too pricy. Never did the Opus thing; had some on Sunday and got far more enjoyment out of the Caymus and Lewis. My surprise of the day was Schramsberg. No need to bore the list, ping me at deflationaryjane@yahoo.com and I'll see if I can hook a brother up >; )
GDD,
one of my BF's good friends is a total french burgundy snob so I know enough to get into big trouble. French style is lovely but sometimes you really just want a nice CA fruitbomb. Actually, locally here there is an explosion of spanish and italian varietals going on and the price points are awesome. Nom nom nom ....
Too little inflation is code for my worst case 70s style stagflation. High oil prices, high gold prices, high unemployment, no inflation in wages.
You forgot orchestrated currency devaluation.
I heard a distinguished B-school professor type saying today: "I don't know what the earnings of the S&P 500 will be this year...maybe $45-60. But I do know with some certainty that corporate earnings will be A LOT higher 10 years from now."
I wanted to say...yeah, and buddy, you'll be paying $400 to fill up your tank.
The only way to make assets go up in this environment is to debase currency.
"Too little inflation is code for my worst case 70s style stagflation.
High oil prices, high gold prices, high unemployment, no inflation in wages.
Just what the doctor ordered for the worst case scenario.
Is that clear enough for you?"
My only question is how. I see the trustifarians doing well still but everyone else is frankly scared $hitless. Unless we move to am economy where we establish a new landed gentry class... nm I think I need to drink now
This article reads as though Yellen is yappin for her next position. She's probably right, though. Flattening, followed by slow growth, followed by more government lies, followed by another downturn.
Immigrants who once wired money to home countries are asking for remittances to stay afloat in the US
Day laborer Leo Chamale says he recently had to ask his family in Guatemala to send him money in New Jersey because he hadn’t worked in five months. Chamale says he’s now hoping to earn enough for a plane ticket home.
I'm late to the thread and haven't read all the comments yet.
Why is this woman talking about the future as if it isn't already here? Everything she prognosticates is already in full swing (except the recovery, of course). How do these people get their jobs? Is this, like, the easiest vetting process in the world? She's supposed to know more than we do, isn't she?
def_jane - trustifarians, good one I hadnt heard before. Glad youve seen enough of the Burgundy world to stay out of trouble. Some people have to learn the hard way. I was lucky...worked in retail wine..tasted everything free, and being that it was LA, I dont exaggerate when I say everything. Where is local for you? Im really digging Spanish wines - favorite are from Priorat...all you need is $25-35 and a clue and you'll drink stuff as good as $60 from france/CA. Thats not my everyday though...more like Montes Alpha Cab and the like. Fruitbombs from CA have their moments. You are the first person Ive seen say nom nom nom. I thought I was the only goofball using that.
sm_landlord - thanks for posting that link. I couldnt find it.... Also laughing out loud at the idea of sending crack economist gag gifts.... I really hope someone send Benny and the Inkjets a Smack the Mortgage Pig shirt... Cheers!
Yellen: That’s a dreary prediction, but there is also some risk that things could turn out worse. High on my worry list is the possibility of another shock to the still-fragile financial system. Commercial real estate is a particular danger zone.
Translation: "This sucker is going down!" But she doesn't get to say that. Wonder where she's stashed her own money.
Jane: all quiet at my YouCee, but you can cut the tension with a knife. No retirees today in my department, they've already bailed.
I wonder if there are any statistics on illegals and whether they truly are going back home.
The net outflow of Mexicans _ those leaving the country minus those returning from abroad _ dropped to 204,000 people between August 2007 and August 2008. That was down from 455,000 for the year ending in August 2007.
The net outflow of Mexicans _ those leaving the country minus those returning from abroad _ dropped to 204,000 people between August 2007 and August 2008. That was down from 455,000 for the year ending in August 2007.
So the Mexicans are still leaving, but leaving at a slower pace?
I have been talking about hispanic origin population net outmigration from CA for a while. At first it was outmigration from gateway states into flyover states then it became net international outmigration. There is still some discussion about movement to the US interior vs leaving the US but consensus seems to be that there has been a sizable shift.
S "Nor does anyone ever tackle how the economy at the new potential and normalized rates can possibly service the debt being accrued"
+10
The elephant in the living room no one wants to acknowledge is there. On top of existing unfunded liabilities Obama wants to add Carbon taxes and a massive health care entitlement without addressing trade and ignoring current gaping holes. Amazing stuff. This economy/stock/bond markets should be crawling on its knees.... can happen on any given day.
I like a girl who gets on it an stays on it. I also like a girl who gets behind it and stays behind it. However I don't like a women who gets political for the wrong reasons. Is there really ever a good reason?
In case you crazy folks missed it but it looks like we have a nice segue way HBO: Hung
Directed and I suspect partially written by Alex Payne of Sideways fame. It's located in Detroit and very topical. You'll love his next door neighbor, the RE guy
Ben Bernanke and his buddies don’t understand or don’t care to understand and admit that monetary manipulations will not bring back demand. We are now experiencing a DEMAND DEFLATION in everything. The sub-prime real estate buyers are not coming back to market, and the credit worthy borrowers are not going to get into debt any time soon to support the speculative bubble blowing any longer. We don’t need to “unfreeze lending” if nobody wants to borrow (while assets are depreciating). Mr. Bernanke somehow believes that he can magically circumvent creating economic product, which is always based on labor and goods it produces, by just hitting a button on his computer to add a few zeros to FED’s account in a coup of counterfeiting. This illegal act does not provide employment to anyone except Mr. Bernanke and not resulting in any economic product on the other end of this labor intensive operation. His academic theories, being tested on live human beings, will be proven wrong and disastrous soon enough. The prices will go where they naturally want to go. All FED can do is slow the process of decline, not arrest it – and that will only prolong this recession that has all the underpinnings of becoming another Great Depression.
S.F. FRB President Yellen wasn't the only Fed President to speak today:
PHILADELPHIA, June 30, 2009 (Reuters) — St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Tuesday that public anger over the U.S. financial crisis and subsequent bailouts could cause big problems if this escalated into a political challenge to the independence of the U.S. central bank.
I think any time you Champagne yeast on a cider, it will ferment down to 0.088 or so, you will end up with some rocket fuel if you don't back sweeten. Of course I like rocket fuel, I just give it around 8 months to mellow out. The difference between moonshine and good drinks is ageing.
Now the question still remains, will the banks have the time and low interest rates to earn their way out? Or is the FED going to have to collect the toxic assets and store them like nuclear waste?
ah, pigged again.
Since the thread is pigged, I hope you won't mind me testing the glossary. I noticed MrM's first post in this thread had a definition for TBTF. I want to know if he linked in that definition or if the super, uber hoocoodanode code did it. I'm hoping with this post to find out. Oh, so its the hoocoodanode system. Yeah, that is just too cool. A big thanks to whoever thought of it and whoever implemented it!
I believe that people who have really been financially harmed are reluctant to deal with those in the
financial systems and markets until the Governmemt identifies those wrong doers.
Why should I put my money at risk dealing with those that were a real part in causing this crisis.
I believe we could use that old adage-FOOL ME ONCE,SHAME ON YOU--FOOL ME, TWICE SHAME ON ME.
If the there was ever a time that the wealthy and the powerful killed the public trust in the financial sysytems, it is now.
The sound bites I see on these forums are cute,but those people who use them don't "Get It"
Jellin' like Janet Yellen.
Pretty insightful for a person who was 15 months late to the party and punch drunk upon arrival..... She must be turning it on in the final leg of Run for Benny's Job.....
I knew we were in deep trouble when I heard the childish "Yes We Can" chants community-organized by the cheerleader-in-chief..
Summers might go nukular if a woman is chosen instead of him...
OK maybe that was a bit harsh but her earlier statements were akin to "Contained" (Still one of my favorite sayings BTW)
Nades,
But hoocoodanode how F... up the banks were, and that the free credit train would de-rail? /SNARK
I did not not even see the free money train, and most likely got ran over by it without even feeling it.
"I also think that a massive shift in consumer behavior is under way—one that will produce great benefits in the long run but slow our recovery in the short term"
Define "long-term"
Public Service Re-broadcast, given this thread is more relevant
Thomas Hoenig (our favorite Fed President) gave a speech today at the New York University's Stern School of Business.
He continues to take on TBTF and suggests three key components in how to deal with TBTF:
1) Limit leverage ratio, which is very simple to measure and difficult to manipulate (as opposed to risk-based capital ratios)
2) Define a resolution process for failed large financial institutions (Hoenig does say that even existing tools allow to do that, but he argues a clear and "statutorily sanctioned" process blueprint would be of great value)
3) Management of failed institutions must be replaced and stockholders wiped out.
There is a lot more in the speech. For example, Hoenig emphasizes the importance of ensuring fair outcomes when banks fail, which should be free of political influences.
Yet, somehow nobody mentions him as a potential replacement for Geithner or Bernanke. I wonder why ...
"Old Yellin", the movie, had an unhappy ending.
Wouldn't it be ironic if the newly "scared straight" American consumer put his savings in a bank, then got the news that the dollar had been devalued? He might as well have bought the new plasma screen.
Also, for those savings to get into productive investments, there has to be a vehicle like stocks or bonds or something. Putting money in a bank will not help the economy, since the banks do not want to loan money any more. And they don't pay any interest worth speaking of on your deposits either. You might as well just buy gold, it doesn't pay much less interest than banks.
KK sometimes its best to just catch the next train....
As for Yellen.... I think something about being in the Fed must obscure their vision... They should get the water checked... Or maybe its an air quality issue... Mold spores perhaps?
Must not have been invited for roast beef and green shoots yet.
"Define "long-term" "
In economics, that means "after you're dead".
I missed the 'roast beef' memo.... Can someone enlighten me? TIA....
"Finally, developments in the labor market suggest it could take several years to return to full employment."
Several years to return to 6-7% UE, which is the new full employment. We probably won't ever get back to 4% without another bubble.
"They should get the water checked... "
Who needs water, when you have hot and cold running Kool-Aid?
OT from the last thread:
"RR if you have all that then who needs a job?"
Ben, you and I see things a lot the same way. I'm glad you understand what I'm driving at.
Tim -
John Mauldin had a good write up. Here's the beginning of it.... Cheers!
By David Galland, Casey Research
In November of 1997, my partner and co-editor of The Casey Report, Doug Casey, wrote an article titled "Foundations of Crisis," which leaned heavily on the research of Neil Howe and the late William Strauss.
Howe and Strauss have written many books on how generations determine the course of history and how they will shape America's future. Their forecasts on a wide variety of indicators have turned out to be amazingly accurate. They were among the first to predict (back in the late 1980s) the rise of Boomer-driven culture wars and the simultaneous rise of Gen-X-driven free agency and distrust of government. And they were completely alone back then in predicting, for the post-X "Millennial Generation" (a label they coined), a decline in youth crime and risk taking and an increase in youth civic engagement that would first become apparent around the year 2000. Guess what? For the last ten years, everyone has been noticing exactly these trends among teens and 20somethings.
Looks like Yellen is calling for more of a jobless recovery...
next thing i'll know, Obama will campaign in 2012 about not changing horses in midstream...
My question from the last thread regarding SS was not just a joke, I think the unemployment rate still has the hidden drag of issues like this:
Retired At 54. Pensionless At 74?
Retired At 54. Pensionless At 74? - NY Times
There are a large number of people who are or will be forced out of retirement, and competing for jobs. I know people have talked about this but SS will be tested much earlier than most pundits tend to say.
As long as interest rates stay at rock bottom, and CPI goes down we are OK, but how long can it stay that way? Maybe if we are lucky another year?
Sorry mid year financial review making me want to get crazy drunk, but I still have some house hold chores to get done.
Why would any sane person want bernankes job?
I missed the 'roast beef' memo.... Can someone enlighten me? TIA....
Nothing to say
Also How the World Works - Salon.com
Or Bush's old one....
Thanks!
Kahuna Re:CrazyDrunk
I never seem to get as hungover on the GnomeBrew as compared to say Swiller High Life...
What about you?
Homebrew help you avoid the Noid?
Go Janet.
Cardinal error perpetrated: "But falling house and stock prices have destroyed trillions of dollars in wealth".
Only if you define wealth as temporary changes in accounting entries, aka unrealized gains.
C
HomeGnome -
I never seem to get as hungover on the GnomeBrew as compared to say Swiller High Life..
Depends, some of my Imperials, stouts and meads make me want to remove my brain the next morning. Drinking water and vitamin C helps.
You know the line from Old School, "It just taste soo goood".
Looks like Yellen is calling for more of a jobless recovery...
I remain very confused by a concept of jobless recovery.
Economy can start growing without creating new jobs only work when the exports are surging or Government expenditures are increasing. With the decline in manufacturing and financial services in this country and tgiven he global nature of the economic slowdown, it is hard to imagine how a surge in exports can materialize.
A recovery driven primarily by Government expenditures is not a recovery, but a move to a new socio-economic system
"Why would any sane person want bernankes job? "
Simple it is not the job that pays it is the pay after the job. Why did Greenscam open up a consulting business in his 80s?
My first hard cider (just apple juice dumped into a 5 gallon carboy and fermented with Champagne yeast) did make me wish I could die.
Called it SnakeBite Cider.
Apt name as I definitely felt snakebitten.
Only if you define wealth as temporary changes in accounting entries, aka unrealized gains.
And yet you can be taxed upon these gains, in the form of property tax, but after the "value" falls, they don't remit the excess.
So Is California going to TapOut tonight or what?
I-O-U!
I-O-U!
I-O-U!
"I remain very confused by a concept of jobless recovery."
I take that to mean that the economy recovers enough to put the underemployed back to full-time work, but not enough to require bringing on new workers.
"Why did Greenscam open up a consulting business in his 80s? "
Why didn't he retire sooner and collect the vig?
I think it's because he didn't want to stop playing around with his big, fat, live version of Sim City.
HomeGnome - SnakeBite Cider.
I made one
5.5 gals apple juice - OG: 1.046, 2 lbs brown sugar, 2 lbs honey.
ABV 12.7, I call it brain dead cider. If you drink it like beer you are toast.
@nades: Those who now want to talk about the shape of the recovery have the same hopeful "contained' outlook. This is just happy talk when if you believe that when we reach 'bottom' is still unclear.
It also works so much in favor of the banks, doesn't it??? Who cares about financial reform is the system is sound enough to move forward after a hiccup. I can almost hear the bankers now: "The global financial system was more robust and resilient than many gave it credit for. We learned our lesson: we have updated our risk management systems and processes. Additional regulation will just stifle innovation and impair the (nascent) recovery."
sm_landlord -
"I remain very confused by a concept of jobless recovery."
Usually the full time workers are asked to work over time and pushed to the limit before the company will risk hiring a new body.
Just my personal experience.
Kahuna- Brain Dead Cider
You must have taken that OG reading off the apple juice only.
Bajakka!!!
Kahuna,
That too.
Here's a link to the piece that nades quoted from above. (The piece by Dave Galland in Mauldin's letter)
OT:
HomeGnome -
You must have taken that OG reading off the apple juice only.
Yes, always do, different brands have different OG.
Batch OG: 1.071 Estimated. Taste great, but it starts to qualify as hooch.
I remain very confused by a concept of jobless recovery.
And I suppose you have problems with the "L-shaped" recovery.
Let's look at M.C. Escher's "Waterfall"
deblogatory
What we experienced is the cascade down, but if you follow the flow, you'll see that in the long run we recover. I hope this makes it clear.
Can someone explain to me how there can be "too little inflation"?
From Janet Yellen:
"I will be the first to say that it is always difficult to get monetary policy just right. But the Fed’s analytical prowess is top-notch and our forecasting record is second to none. The FOMC is committed to price stability and has a solid track record in achieving it."
Yeah, right ...
Besides, it is this solid track record that is in the way of pushing the market expectations from deflation to inflation.
One more point - Yellen mentioned to avoid completely the issue USD exchange rate and foreign purchases of the future issuances of the US debt. One would think these issues are not irrelevant to either the economic recovery or the Fed's response to the crisis, no?
Can't really argue with anything she said. I do think the Fed and economic policy makers have to operate under the assumption that Commercial Real Estate will be, if not a worst case scenario, a "bad" case scenario and have to be prepared for damage it will cause.
I'm also not terribly worried about the dollar or inflation because the problems are global and China shows no signs whatsoever of solving it's problems. In fact, China's recent stockpiling of commodities under the guise of stimulus will probably cause another bounce down in commodities prices and leave China storing a bunch of stuff that's gone down in value. It may make them wish for more dollars to buy.
sdtfs - LOL! Spot on
sdtfs - indeed. I usually don't recall that datum because where I come from it's generally low, sluggish to move up, and contestable. However, that's not always the case, and as we know from the Taxman's Secret Bible, "if it moveth, breatheth, or groweth, taxeth the living crap out of it".
C
Too little inflation is code for my worst case 70s style stagflation.
High oil prices, high gold prices, high unemployment, no inflation in wages.
Just what the doctor ordered for the worst case scenario.
Is that clear enough for you?
Someday this war's gonna end...
Same ole pablum we've come to expect from these pontificators.
"Can someone explain to me how there can be "too little inflation"? "
Well, the standard theory is that you have to grow the money supply to match the growth of the economy. Otherwise you get deflation. At least, that's what I remember from way back when I read that stuff.
she (and others) keep leaving out one important qualifier : "perceived"...as in "perceived wealth"
SM_landlord - the reason Greenspan didnt cash in on his consulting, is that he wasnt very good at it. Fairly well established that he was a terrible economic forecaster (and businessperson) well before he became headoduhFed.
Yellen is a tool.
Can financialism support a civilization, let alone help it progress?
I'm sick and tired of these clueless ivory tower crystal ball readers perched aloft in an airless vacum room looking down upon the real world.. She's needs to get out of the upper stratosphere and come'on down into the real world and breathe some oxygen and car exhaust.
A bunch of totally OT stuff-
Tom,
I am a mere enthusiast compared to my friends and family. Thanks for info on the pinot which will be put to good use come barrel tasting time and I will be passing that on to my V&E pals. Out here, the vines are looking really shaggy We've just had a helluva heat snap in the delta but that gorgeous breeze is back tonight.
Did the big tasting in SF last Sun and much fun was had by all. My favorite varietal is Viognier and I walked out with a case of that and some Kennedy Lateral. Super easy to get a table for brunch and dinner in SF, settled on Perry's and Lulu's . Drunk some Turley with dinner - we couldn't pass it up as I hadn't seen it that inexpensive on a SF wine list for like ever. However, I think I have a crush on Randall Grahm now.
KK,
what kinds of wine do you like and what price point? American Oak or French oak? Only thing I will never recommend is Chardonnay. I've tried some of the best there is and all I get is eh-its-ok. I just don't have the palette for it.
In other news, today was the last day for many. It seems like everyone on campus is psyching themselves up for a knife fight. The folks who were retiring where the only ones with smiles.
GDD9000 -
she (and others) keep leaving out one important qualifier : "perceived"...as in "perceived wealth"
The problem with this is that people took out loans on that perceived wealth, and still owe the debt. Deflation kills their perceived assets and makes it harder to pay back the debt.
Citizen AllenM (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 10:05 pm reply Ignore user Too little inflation is code for my worst case 70s style stagflation.
High oil prices, high gold prices, high unemployment, no inflation in wages.
Just what the doctor ordered for the worst case scenario.
Is that clear enough for you?
Crystal clear. Except you forgot to add record low corporate earnings.
Our major banks have made excellent progress in establishing the capital buffers needed to continue lending even through a downturn that is more serious than we anticipate. But they are still nursing their wounds and credit will remain tight for some time to come.
Whoa! They are nursing their wounds? I think the taxpayers are doing most of the nursing. Besides, these are mostly self-inflicted wounds. What a bunch of crap.
K - K : That alone tells you something about the nature of the consumer balance sheet....asset side of the ledger fleeting....debt...rather permanent (inflation and writeoffs from creditors aside.) Oddly, people seem to act as if the wealth is more real than the debt, when the reverse is rather true.
Deflationary Jane
First and foremost, bang for the buck.
I don't mind spending $80 for a bottle if I get $80+ of enjoyment out of it.
Otherwise I prefer dry wines, reds over whites. In no way am I a snob, I just want to buy a good product at a good price. Too many reviews miss that fact be it wine, cars, houses, shoes, etc.
So what is the fed going to take into their coffers when it comes to CMBS? Legacy-Yes, AAA-Yes, AA-Yes, A-yes..We will rescue the spectulators, the well to do, the rich who invested in commercial now..Amazing when she states this....
Property prices are falling and vacancy rates are rising in many parts of the country. Given the weak economy, prices could fall more rapidly and developers could face tough times rolling over their loans. Many banks are heavily exposed to commercial real estate loans. An increase in defaults could add to their financial stress, prompting them to tighten credit. The Fed and Treasury are providing loans to investors in securitized commercial mortgages, which should be a big help. But a risk remains of a severe shakeout in this sector.
Tying in the last thread's porn comments and the general downward spiral of the economy, did anyone see Hung last Sunday? I swear the writers have to have been CR readers.
K - K : if you like value, try dipping into Spanish, Chilean and to some extent Argentinean wines (a bit too much junk still in the latter). Pinot will generally bust up your bank, and you have to be serious fan to want to pay that money. Plus, if you have a good advisor, for the prices you pay for CA and OR pinots, you can get more interesting wines for Burgundy. It's just that without the advisor, your hit ratio will be much lower and you'll waste more money on the French wines. But you really have to know your styles with Pinot, because it has evolved along a few different lines/styles.
Great...another Kenysean..... whack-job.
Why is it that the media lapdogs simply repeat the recession will end later this year. The recession end call is merely a technicality. How exactly does the gov't borrowing money to run through the income statement as the top line shrinks constitute the end of anything. More like the beginning. Nor does anyone ever tackle how the economy at the new potential and normalized rates can possibly service the debt being accrued. The no recession call is like jumping up and down about an equal weighted survey that takes into account rising equity prices with zero fundamental support. Garbage in garbage out. The new made in the USA.
GDD9000
K - K : if you like value, try dipping into Spanish, Chilean and to some extent Argentinean wines (a bit too much junk still in the latter).
I have tried and like a lot of Chilean and Argentinian wines, I have not found many Spanish ones here.
I was told once that when the economy is in the tubes, the Argentinians tend to export more of the low end because it can't be consumed locally, and it gets blended into other wines and not really well.
The Australian wines are rather in-expensive but I have not found any gems yet, but I'll keep on looking.
I am still a wine novice, but I prefer Shiraz/Syrah, then Zin, then Cab in that order. My favorite Shiraz is from Australia.
Right, Yellenisms of the moment dispatched. What else is going on?
Nikki managed to close morning trading up everso slightly, nikkei.com calling the Tankan survey "lackluster", which is code for shite, and dull shite at that; Hang Seng down, ASX, NZX, Singapore all elmo.
And tomorrow's Pony Day! Well done everyone. The long first-half nightmare is over.
C
"great benefits" = less access to credit, less stupid spending on things like overpriced college educations, permanently higher unemployment, and wage stagnation for a generation. You tell it janet.
Counterpointer,
Are you predicting a second half recovery?
"You tell it janet."
We should take up a collection to send her a case of lipstick.
And hope the pigs keep sitting still for it.
CCoinz - no, I'm just saying that in just over an hour EST the long first-half nightmare will be over.
C
"I'm just saying that in just over an hour EST the long first-half nightmare will be over. "
As the long second-half nightmare begins...
KK,
the tough part is you are in Hawaii so what's available for your price point will vary. Then again, $80 is baby silveroak territory to me and too pricy. Never did the Opus thing; had some on Sunday and got far more enjoyment out of the Caymus and Lewis. My surprise of the day was Schramsberg. No need to bore the list, ping me at deflationaryjane@yahoo.com and I'll see if I can hook a brother up >; )
GDD,
one of my BF's good friends is a total french burgundy snob so I know enough to get into big trouble. French style is lovely but sometimes you really just want a nice CA fruitbomb. Actually, locally here there is an explosion of spanish and italian varietals going on and the price points are awesome. Nom nom nom ....
Coinz,
Have you tried a sparkling shiraz yet?
You forgot orchestrated currency devaluation.
I heard a distinguished B-school professor type saying today: "I don't know what the earnings of the S&P 500 will be this year...maybe $45-60. But I do know with some certainty that corporate earnings will be A LOT higher 10 years from now."
I wanted to say...yeah, and buddy, you'll be paying $400 to fill up your tank.
The only way to make assets go up in this environment is to debase currency.
Assets must go up.
24-hour Kinkos not 24 hours anymore
cut their hours by 13%
I expect the 24-hour fast food places to follow suite
BINGO. Sheila, pay the landlord man.
C
/edit - for rich, debasers everywhere, with malice behind the nice tunes:
YouTube - Pixies - Debaser.mpg
"Too little inflation is code for my worst case 70s style stagflation.
High oil prices, high gold prices, high unemployment, no inflation in wages.
Just what the doctor ordered for the worst case scenario.
Is that clear enough for you?"
That's not even CLOSE to my worst case scenario.
Every time I hear second half recovery, I can't get the image of Andy Kaufman singing "Here I come to save the day" out of my mind.
"Assets must go up. "
My only question is how. I see the trustifarians doing well still but everyone else is frankly scared $hitless. Unless we move to am economy where we establish a new landed gentry class... nm I think I need to drink now
This article reads as though Yellen is yappin for her next position. She's probably right, though. Flattening, followed by slow growth, followed by more government lies, followed by another downturn.
Can't find the real one on youtube.
Immigrants who once wired money to home countries are asking for remittances to stay afloat in the US
Day laborer Leo Chamale says he recently had to ask his family in Guatemala to send him money in New Jersey because he hadn’t worked in five months. Chamale says he’s now hoping to earn enough for a plane ticket home.
A proof positive of the real shitbag US economy.
YouTube - Andy Kaufman - Mighty Mouse
km4 - jeebus, DC liquor stores are going to have to completely change their business model. Financial sector could be a good prospect.
C
Coinz,
Have you tried a sparkling shiraz yet?
No, I haven't. Sounds strange, but I might like it.
Deflationary Jane -
Thanks, it kind fits in my twisted mind.
Drinking the water, testifying to Congress.
"No, I haven't. Sounds strange, but I might like it. "
Can't be much odder than a sparkling Pinot - Roederer makes at least one that is pretty good.
I'm late to the thread and haven't read all the comments yet.
Why is this woman talking about the future as if it isn't already here? Everything she prognosticates is already in full swing (except the recovery, of course). How do these people get their jobs? Is this, like, the easiest vetting process in the world? She's supposed to know more than we do, isn't she?
Wine Snobs == "Educated" Douchebags
Feckless Ness,
We replaced entrail readers and oracles with ivy league economists and MBAs.
In USSA second half recovery entrails of ivy league economists truth you!
C
def_jane - trustifarians, good one I hadnt heard before. Glad youve seen enough of the Burgundy world to stay out of trouble. Some people have to learn the hard way. I was lucky...worked in retail wine..tasted everything free, and being that it was LA, I dont exaggerate when I say everything. Where is local for you? Im really digging Spanish wines - favorite are from Priorat...all you need is $25-35 and a clue and you'll drink stuff as good as $60 from france/CA. Thats not my everyday though...more like Montes Alpha Cab and the like. Fruitbombs from CA have their moments. You are the first person Ive seen say nom nom nom. I thought I was the only goofball using that.
Chamale says he’s now hoping to earn enough for a plane ticket home.
I wonder if there are any statistics on illegals and whether they truly are going back home. I would certainly assume so.
Lucifer - we're going to start reading the entrails of ivy league eCONomists and MBAs, yes?
Feckless,
I am afraid so
sm_landlord - thanks for posting that link. I couldnt find it.... Also laughing out loud at the idea of sending crack economist gag gifts.... I really hope someone send Benny and the Inkjets a Smack the Mortgage Pig shirt... Cheers!
Yellen: That’s a dreary prediction, but there is also some risk that things could turn out worse. High on my worry list is the possibility of another shock to the still-fragile financial system. Commercial real estate is a particular danger zone.
Translation: "This sucker is going down!" But she doesn't get to say that. Wonder where she's stashed her own money.
Jane: all quiet at my YouCee, but you can cut the tension with a knife. No retirees today in my department, they've already bailed.
"om nom nom nom" is a great tag for food related topics.
Bob Dobbs,
There is a very strong case for burning false prophets.
InvestorsInsight.com - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.
Scroll down to
The End of the Recession?
By John Mauldin
Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline on 06-26-2009
A 20-Year Bear Market?
By John Mauldin
Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box on 06-29-2009
I find he is always good reading.
Lucifer - you better get the checkbook out and start writing the big numbers - burning false prophets is covered by cap n trade...
C
Since you brought it up Lucifer "I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE! I DRINK IT UP!"
I believe what we've been doing of late is burning false profits.
I wonder if there are any statistics on illegals and whether they truly are going back home.
The net outflow of Mexicans _ those leaving the country minus those returning from abroad _ dropped to 204,000 people between August 2007 and August 2008. That was down from 455,000 for the year ending in August 2007.
Mexico, US form immigration working group - Washington Times
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 8:04 pm
We replaced entrail readers and oracles with ivy league economists and MBAs.
We'd have been better served USING the entrails of Ivy League economists and MBAs.
GDD9000,
burning false prophets is more fun
First person I saw use Nom nom nom on CR was Rob. It's been in gamer geek jargon for a while.
So we can expect things to be about 10 times worse than what she envisions?
BTW, what will the black market exchange rate be for Bear Bucks?
http://i732.photobucket.com/albums/ww329/blackfridayarmy/money/CA-IOU.png?t=1246418813
BURN - it depends. How's your Mandarin?
C
Saw a great bumper sticker today:
You think health care is expensive now?
Just wait till it's FREE
ROTFLOL ! !! ! !
Deflationary Jane (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 8:24 pm
First person I saw use Nom nom nom on CR was Rob. It's been in gamer geek jargon for a while.
Wow. And to think earlier today somebody else accused me of having a weird retentive memory.
The net outflow of Mexicans _ those leaving the country minus those returning from abroad _ dropped to 204,000 people between August 2007 and August 2008. That was down from 455,000 for the year ending in August 2007.
So the Mexicans are still leaving, but leaving at a slower pace?
That seems to be a common theme lately.
exactly Barfly
I have been talking about hispanic origin population net outmigration from CA for a while. At first it was outmigration from gateway states into flyover states then it became net international outmigration. There is still some discussion about movement to the US interior vs leaving the US but consensus seems to be that there has been a sizable shift.
S "Nor does anyone ever tackle how the economy at the new potential and normalized rates can possibly service the debt being accrued"
+10
The elephant in the living room no one wants to acknowledge is there. On top of existing unfunded liabilities Obama wants to add Carbon taxes and a massive health care entitlement without addressing trade and ignoring current gaping holes. Amazing stuff. This economy/stock/bond markets should be crawling on its knees.... can happen on any given day.
Asia seems less than ecstatic about the second half recovery. Odd. ASX is diving. Nikki looks bewildered.
Guess it's back to the ol rocking chair to wait for the unicorns.
YouTube - Mildred Bailey - Rockin` Chair (1937)
nytol
C
Okay.
So, is this supposed to be 'news'?
Did she say anything we haven't already heard tossed around over a few hundred million beers?
"I expect the recession will end sometime later this year."
Um ... I expect you're likely to be wrong about that. A few month ago the recession was going to be ending ... oh ...
right about NOW -- summer!
CR: Thanks for your cleverly subtle way of showing us what a bunch of asshats we have guarding our money supply.
LOL Rob,
credit where credit is due
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 8:33 pm
Wow. And to think earlier today somebody else accused me of having a weird retentive memory.
I've been told it's an ENTJ thing. It's probably part of our innate desire to control the world
The wealth wasn't "destroyed". It was never there.
Houses aren't being demolished in large numbers. It's just the amount people are willing to pay for them has changed.
BURN,
Great photoshop job, and very funny. A couple of threads ago, I believe the consensus name for the Kali IOUs was "Bear Chits".
still needin the golden cross up my green chute. nasdaq?
I like a girl who gets on it an stays on it. I also like a girl who gets behind it and stays behind it. However I don't like a women who gets political for the wrong reasons. Is there really ever a good reason?
Outsider (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 11:34 pm
"... still leaving, but leaving at a slower pace?
That seems to be a common theme lately.
Bingo.
Going down 'at a slower pace' ...
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/directors_charts/econ_fin.pdf
unless they should be going down -- like unemployment. Then they're going up, sometimes at a slower pace, sometimes not ....
I'm laughing because I'm on my daughter's Mac and when she saw the "Arnold Bucks" picture she "stumbled" it ensuring that millions will see it soon.
In case you crazy folks missed it but it looks like we have a nice segue way
HBO: Hung
Directed and I suspect partially written by Alex Payne of Sideways fame. It's located in Detroit and very topical. You'll love his next door neighbor, the RE guy
Ben Bernanke and his buddies don’t understand or don’t care to understand and admit that monetary manipulations will not bring back demand. We are now experiencing a DEMAND DEFLATION in everything. The sub-prime real estate buyers are not coming back to market, and the credit worthy borrowers are not going to get into debt any time soon to support the speculative bubble blowing any longer. We don’t need to “unfreeze lending” if nobody wants to borrow (while assets are depreciating). Mr. Bernanke somehow believes that he can magically circumvent creating economic product, which is always based on labor and goods it produces, by just hitting a button on his computer to add a few zeros to FED’s account in a coup of counterfeiting. This illegal act does not provide employment to anyone except Mr. Bernanke and not resulting in any economic product on the other end of this labor intensive operation. His academic theories, being tested on live human beings, will be proven wrong and disastrous soon enough. The prices will go where they naturally want to go. All FED can do is slow the process of decline, not arrest it – and that will only prolong this recession that has all the underpinnings of becoming another Great Depression.
National Deflation Association blog
3 more hours to IOU's?
Wow Samdog - that's a lot of charts!
S.F. FRB President Yellen wasn't the only Fed President to speak today:
PHILADELPHIA, June 30, 2009 (Reuters) — St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Tuesday that public anger over the U.S. financial crisis and subsequent bailouts could cause big problems if this escalated into a political challenge to the independence of the U.S. central bank.
NewsDaily: Your best source for breaking news
barfly -
A political challenge to the independence of the U.S. central bank.
Time to circle the wagons.
My first hard cider (just apple juice dumped into a 5 gallon carboy and fermented with Champagne yeast) did make me wish I could die.
You need to get the juice from astringent apples(Granny Smith ok, crab apples best) to balance things out. 3 parts sweet 1 part astringent.
Alexis Glick from Fox Business is on Hannity re broadcast right now. She may not know anything, but nobody outshouts her.
Overstated!
I think any time you Champagne yeast on a cider, it will ferment down to 0.088 or so, you will end up with some rocket fuel if you don't back sweeten. Of course I like rocket fuel, I just give it around 8 months to mellow out. The difference between moonshine and good drinks is ageing.
Now the question still remains, will the banks have the time and low interest rates to earn their way out? Or is the FED going to have to collect the toxic assets and store them like nuclear waste?
ah, pigged again.
Since the thread is pigged, I hope you won't mind me testing the glossary. I noticed MrM's first post in this thread had a definition for TBTF. I want to know if he linked in that definition or if the super, uber hoocoodanode code did it. I'm hoping with this post to find out. Oh, so its the hoocoodanode system. Yeah, that is just too cool. A big thanks to whoever thought of it and whoever implemented it!
I believe that people who have really been financially harmed are reluctant to deal with those in the
financial systems and markets until the Governmemt identifies those wrong doers.
Why should I put my money at risk dealing with those that were a real part in causing this crisis.
I believe we could use that old adage-FOOL ME ONCE,SHAME ON YOU--FOOL ME, TWICE SHAME ON ME.
If the there was ever a time that the wealthy and the powerful killed the public trust in the financial sysytems, it is now.
The sound bites I see on these forums are cute,but those people who use them don't "Get It"