June Economic Summary in Graphs
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 06/30/2009 - 2:35pm (192 comments)
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 16 members and 132 guests online.
Recent Recommendations
Strictly speaking, June isn't over yet.
That last graph makes me think Bernanke ordered a code red.
Never knew that about the "Nobel" in economics. But that explains some of the banker bias over the years.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has argued that he, along with others, had behaved in the manner of an emergency crew that needs to save a burning home before it destroys an entire neighborhood -- without first asking whether the fire was started carelessly.
Hoenig asked in response: "If the fire was started by a homeowner who ignored fire codes and smokes in bed, should the neighbors be required to rebuild the home at twice its original size at their expense?"
Too-big-to-fail now part of system: Hoenig - MarketWatch
nicely done CR, one stop shopping.
thanks!
FRANKEN IS IN!
Now, help me out here. Where in those graphs are these mythical green shoots?
Those shoot do NOT look very green !
Unemployment rates rose in ALL the largest U.S. metropolitan areas for the fifth straight month in May.
Yup the recession is under control so stay tuned for more green shooties from MSM, the Fed, and Obama admin.
There are times when you start a small fire to prevent a large one.
And eventually, they find the arsonist, detain him, and put him away. Problem is, we already KNOW who the arsonists are, and we've handed them a gallon of gasoline and a lighter. (plus a per diem)
km4 wrote: "stay tuned for more green shooties from MSM, the Fed, and Obama admin"
And who can forget the sickening 'coverage' from National Propaganda Radio ( NPR ). I think someone won't get an invite to the Whitehouse if they don't follow the party line or suchlike.
There are times when you start a small fire to prevent a large one.
According to Bernanke's logic, if your neighbor's house is burning, you have to spread the fire to every house in the neighborhood to contain it. Ya know, you have to destroy the village to save it.
Bernanke: You want me on that printing press, you need me on that printing press. You're damn right I ordered the code red.
Dawg: what percentage of the country is fed by the Valley? And yeas, the barricades have been up for decades for stuff coming into and out of CA. Maybe noone else has had to stop and explain why they have bananas and apples in the car.
Folk, this is a boil coming to a head.
Although, I would move if CA had their own currency backed by nubile blonds.
Obama needs to implement a modern day version of Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) and fast !
Civilian Conservation Corps - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Not likely to happen and it's too much hard work for fat, lazy and complacent Americans of today !
I have more than one haha moment reading some of the comments....
Although, I would move if CA had their own currency backed by nubile blonds.
Now THAT is a currency I could get behind!
And the far right wingnuts could establish their version of The Reichsarbeitsdienst
Reichsarbeitsdienst - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
When I was younger and smarter, I dated this girl with pretty blond hair. I never could figure our why she dyed the roots brown. Odd.
volker the viking (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 3:45 pm
Dawg: what percentage of the country is fed by the Valley?
I think you are confusing two different "Valleys." The San Fernando Valley is Valley Girls and porn. The Central Valley is the World's Salad Drawer.
Well, at least SOME of the charts are showing signs of moderating.
/ducks
I would definitely go long on those blonds. ( apologies in advance )
Dawg, okay I'm a dumb ass. I sell advertising.
I think Krugman is here hiding behind one of the more asinine posters.
" Love is.. Krugman..."
Dawg,
Just remember, NJ is the Garden State! Why are the tomatoes so big in NJ? It's the nukular power plants dude.
And you should see our cranberry harvests. There is nothing like flooding a bog with liquidity.
"I think you are confusing two different "Valleys." The San Fernando Valley is Valley Girls and porn. The Central Valley is the World's Salad Drawer."
That's the Salinas Valley, Salad Bowl of the world. No Salinas Valley, kiss three-quarters of your lettuce goodbye.
Lose the Central Valley -- kiss half of every other vegetable crop goodbye.
(Lose Santa Cruz County, lose 18 percent of the brussels sprouts crop -- but who'd miss 'em?)
... which leads us to securitized blond bonds, or blond bondage for short.
"the World's Salad Drawer. "
and the world's underwear drawer (seas of cotton), wine rack, etc
so, what happens when the trucks go away?
so, what happens when the trucks go away?
We grow new ones on the truck farms. Jeez, no wonder the Lakers haven't called you up yet.
Wired chairs delivering intermittent shocks?
Sanofi-Aventis mulling voluntary staff departures
Sanofi-Aventis mulling voluntary staff departures - MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis said Tuesday that it is considering a plan for voluntary staff departures. The firm will not be laying off staff, it said as it outlined a new R&D model under which it will combine its discovery research establishments in France. Preclinical activities in some sites of Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan will also be reorganized, with divestment or reconversion solutions sought for certain activities. The firm is also reevaluating the resources needed for central group functions located in the Paris area.
Blond bond sells
volker the viking (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 3:57 pm
so, what happens when the trucks go away?
Rich New Yorkers hang around the train station in the wee hours waiting for the overdue "Produce Special" From the West and the "Seafood Special" from Down East. Just like the olden dayes.
Garsh. I can never catch up.
Wasn't that chart all deep red a couple months ago?
Gannett Co. fires 1000 employees
Remember we need just as many male blonds!!
(Actually, I prefer dark haired men)
Go on..
//The San Fernando Valley is Valley Girls and porn.//
Shortly, we will all be unemployed.
I will fire myself and work under the table.
Sterling Crisis Looms as U.K. Unraveling Points to Budget Cuts
Sterling Crisis Looms as U.K. Unraveling Points to Budget Cuts - Bloomberg.com
By William Green
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- The state of the U.K. economy fills British financial historian Niall Ferguson with foreboding.
“The probability of a real sterling crisis is around one in three, and the probability of major tax hikes and cuts in public spending is roughly one in one,” the Harvard University professor says.
//The San Fernando Valley is Valley Girls and porn.//
Porn stars paychecks bouncing
Recession Hard On Porn Stars | The Big Picture
The good news is wine grapes take little water.
The bad news is cotton takes a lot. Some of the best cotton in the world comes the lower CV.
But don't forget all the nuts the CV supplies, if we can find a way to save the bee populations of course.
And Liz, all reasonable women prefer dark haired men, IMEO
Dawg: maybe, maybe not
the infrastructure may not support the effort
‘Green Shoots’ Take Over the Lexicon, If Not Economy (Update1)
‘Green Shoots’ Take Over the Lexicon, If Not Economy (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
By Matthew Benjamin
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- The current recession has created at least one growth industry: use of the phrase “green shoots.”
Since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke first uttered the words almost four months ago to describe signs of a thaw in frozen credit markets, instances of the botanical metaphor in the press have climbed sevenfold. A Google search for “green shoots” returns 4.86 million hits.
"Porn stars paychecks bouncing"
we're screwed
sorry
You think they might reduce their prices for off set work?
//Porn stars paychecks bouncing//
A Google search for “green shoots” returns 4.86 million hits.
--BING--
ALL RESULTS 12,100,000 results·
Must be a growth industry.
grrrl,How do I meet a reasonable woman? I am 55 and it has not happened yet.
Are they nuts?
JPMorgan Raises Credit Card Monthly Minimum Payments (Update3)
Bloomberg.com
By Laura Marcinek
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. credit-card issuer, plans to raise the minimum payment on balances to 5 percent for some customers, less than a month before new federal curbs begin to take hold.
It was a misnomer...it was supposed to read "green sh1t"
Am I not a reasonable woman?
Virtually all the women I know are reasonable, until men drive them crazy.
The problem is that you want "reasonable" and a "woman".
I say.. just pay well reviewed escorts. It is cheaper!
//How do I meet a reasonable woman? I am 55 and it has not happened yet.//
Somebody please direct me to the graphic with the green shoots?
JPMorgan will simply find that people who were only thinking of bankruptcy will
now be doing it. Bankers are imbeciles.
I will fire myself and work under the table.
I hope not in the sense Dorthy Parker immortalized...
I love a martini but two at the most...
Three, I'm under the table. Four, I'm under the host!
Hahahaha, dry, tho it sounds like fun.
green shoots and porn stars - does anyone really want to go there?
dryfly -
I love a martini but two at the most...
Three, I'm under the table. Four, I'm under the host!
Note to self, serve martini's at my next party by the 5 gallon carboy!
But they think they are god!
// Bankers are imbeciles.//
I'm sure Luci does, in fact, he already has.
Seriously when people no longer pay for sex or gambling, they are REALLY
short of money. What's next to be cut? Drugs? Booze? Cigs?
Many women porn stars charge about 5-10 times what normal escorts charge per hour. Guess that will change!
//green shoots and porn stars - does anyone really want to go there?//
Have you, ummmm, been escorted by a port star?
lawyerliz,
Have you ever done a total cost comparison between marriage and escorts?
Nah.. I am not going to pay 5-10 times to get the same quality of looks.
//Have you, ummmm, been escorted by a port star?//
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 7:10 pm replyIgnore user‘Green Shoots’ Take Over the Lexicon, If Not Economy (Update1)
Approx. 4 minutes into this video from 12/22/08, 3 months prior to Ben uttering "green Shoots', one analyst says "inevitably someone will start talking about green shoots, unfortunately they will turn out to be green mold"
Video - CNBC.com
But think of having me to talk to, any time you wanted?
Tom,
I find it's best explained while staying at a generous friends house during the crush >; )
...geeze..........get a room.....................
Green Shoots Salad- That is all we have for Dinner. Really!
volker the viking (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 4:09 pm
Dawg: maybe, maybe not
the infrastructure may not support the effort
I honestly believe our extensive and efficient rail network will be one of the cornerstones of the new american century. Continental rail is an awesome and under-appreciated resource. As are our pipelines. And water conduits. All three are up to the tasks of the next few decades at least.
"Have you, ummmm, been escorted by a port star?"
Hey, sailor!
without the strings.. why not?
//But think of having me to talk to, any time you wanted?//
Lucifer...you're so...evil
"But think of having me to talk to, any time you wanted?"
about what?
Hussman had a little thing up yesterday on green shoots, housing etc.
No surprises to anyone here.
"In short, beware of analysts bearing indicators that all is suddenly well, and check their facts. "
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment - Green Shoots and a Grain of Salt - June 29, 2009
I am supposed to be!
//Lucifer...you're so...evil//
Dawg: okay, if you say so, I never doubt the dawg. Gonna be some fist fights down at the depot.
Be wary of analysts bearing green shoots.
Which one of these graphs explains why Nasdaq stocks are up 45% ???
Better add some graphs of the government debt ramp-up so that today's markets make sense...
Nope, I come with strings, oooops, didn't quite mean that. . . .
Anyway, the hub would not appreciate the devil around all the time.
42 years and he still likes me. (And still has dark hair, tho a reverse Leno.)
Have you noticed that most California newspapers are not talking about July 1?
What happens July 1st, I thought Calisplosion Day was the 14th or 15th?
Too-big-to-fail concept institutionalized: Fed's Hoenig
Too-big-to-fail now part of system: Hoenig - MarketWatch
By Greg Robb & Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, was critical of the government's "ad hoc" rescue efforts during the financial crisis, saying that those actions have institutionalized the concept of "too big to fail" in our economic system.
"The current crisis has made it clear that the group of systemically important firms that might be deemed worthy of special consideration by policy-makers is larger than previously thought," Hoenig said in a Tuesday speech at New York University.
Hussman found religion after last falls bust. He suddenly noticed the huge and unpayable debt levels (beyond just mortgages) in our eCONomy. He also lowered his expected rates of returns from equities over the next decade . Imo, they are still too high.
Don't get me wrong, I like Hussman. It's just interesting to see someone that knowledgeable and experienced slowly see a new reality.
July 1 is the new fiscal year. mid-month is when the first scrip paychecks could be going out.
BSR,
have you priced decent rooms in Napa/Sonoma during late Sept? I'm thinking I may pick up a few of those nice but under employed escorts to bring with me for hottub candy and everybody wins
now there is a green shoot
/bows
Yes.. how do arnoldbucks look like?
//July 1 is the new fiscal year. mid-month is when the first scrip paychecks could be going out.//
"and the world's underwear drawer (seas of cotton), wine rack, etc"?
Cotton? That is a stretch.
U.S. Cotton Production by State - Directories & Buyers Guide - Cotton Council International
Unless of course you refer to Texas.
Home > Directories & Buyers Guide
Graphic Header - Cotton Council International - 20
U.S. Cotton Production by State
Upland 2003-
2004* 2004-
2005* 2005-
2006* 2006-
2007* 2007-
2008* 5-year
Average*+
Southeast 4,529 4,631 5,153 5,048 3,237 4,528
Alabama 820 814 848 675 416 745
Florida 117 109 135 166 116 125
Georgia 2,110 1,797 2,140 2,334 1,660 1,992
North Carolina 1,037 1,360 1,437 1,285 783 1,185
South Carolina 326 390 410 433 160 338
Virginia 119 161 183 155 102 143
Mid-South 6,541 7,134 7,433 8,226 5,277 7,021
Arkansas 1,804 2,089 2,202 2,525 1,896 2,058
Louisiana 1,027 885 1,098 1,241 699 998
Mississippi 2,120 2,346 2,147 2,107 1,318 2,131
Missouri 700 830 864 985 764 798
Tennessee 890 984 1,112 1,368 600 1,036
Southwest 4,638 8,114 8,886 6,120 8,588 6,616
Kansas 90 71 88 117 57 88
Oklahoma 218 303 358 203 281 258
Texas 4,330 7,740 8,440 5,800 8,250 6,270
West 2,115 2,626 1,788 1,428 1,253 2,023
Arizona 550 723 615 556 514 611
California 1,495 1,790 1,065 779 650 1,318
New Mexico 70 113 108 93 89 94
Second Derivative?
Shiller Sees ‘Improvement’ in Rate of Home-Price Drop (Update2)
Shiller Sees ‘Improvement’ in Rate of Home-Price Drop (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
By Alison Sider and Thomas R. Keene
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices saw a “striking improvement in the rate of decline” in April and trading in funds launched today indicates investors believe the U.S. housing slump is nearing a bottom, said Yale University economist Robert Shiller.
This is why CR's the best. The summary post he does every month.
Oh, no Shiller's shilling.
Must go eat something.
"slowly see a new reality."
I saw it some time in late October during one of those futures 3% red mornings. Quickly and completely.
YouTube - @4:50
CR is a chartpron star!!
sss
ok, you got me, we only produce more cotton than 47 other states - alongside enough food to feed india and enough two buck chuck for every table in the country and enough nuts and fruits for the whole damn planet...
striking improvement in the rate of decline
I, too, have good news! When I was two years old, the next year aged me 33%, but now each year only adds 2%! The rate of decline is slowing. I'm going to call my senescence a 'second half recovery'.
"BSR,........have you priced decent rooms in Napa/Sonoma during late Sept?"
.......Ma'am, I've noticed most places with "decent rooms" won't take a 900-pound cow........and I need to milk by 6am - I'll ask the Mrs though if you'd like?
OT - Upgraded to Fedora 11 last night, it installed firefox 3.5b4 and it's not really stable right now. So I would recommend to any linux users out there, don't rush to upgrade. (I was just bored so I felt like torturing myself)
Will they take a 700 pound cow?
Really, I need to leave. . .toodles.
Low output but long staple. It used to be the only place that grew Sally Fox's modified colored cotton.
Angry Saver...as an FYI - while I agree with most of your posts, the tomatoes in NJ were bigger and tastier in the days BEFORE nucular (GWB) power. (my apologies if my snark meter is malfunctioning.)
LOL
Hollywood Hack,
Debt levels spooked me a decade ago. The housing bubble just blew my mind. I really don't no how Bernanke could justify letting it happen. No way could he miss it. That's why I don't give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to integrity. Bernanke clearly was following Greenspan's idiotic dogma that central banks should let bubbles run their course and the "sop up the excess" after the bust. Greenspan's bubble policies were so flawed - 22 years on and the system is now a slave to mountains of toxic debt.
Everybody seems to be off topic here, so here goes....
Can someone please point to the graph that justifies the following stock valuation???
An online-retailer stock (AMZN) priced at these glorious levels:
53 times earnings (trailing twelve months).
41 times estimated forward earnings
12 times book value
This is a company that is facing a fight against state governments who are trying to enforce a sales tax upon it, and thereby take away one of its main competetive advantages.
This is a stock with roughly 100M shares held by insiders (out of about 400M total shares), who have been selling in an ongoing massive way.
Somebody lay out the argument for buying this stock, please?
the good reason: a continuing short squeeze
the not-so-good genuine bull reason: the continuing destruction of almost all other retailers (which also works for WMT)
Somebody lay out the argument for buying this stock, please?
"Somebody lay out the argument for buying this stock, please? "
Kindle.
Seriously, people think it's going to replace books.
"enough food to feed India and enough two buck chuck for every table in the country and enough nuts and fruits for the whole damn planet..."
I doubt any of that. Movies, porn, fruits and nuts you surely have enough to export. But I suspect any net gain.
I sell more Kindle versions of a novel than I do paper.
Of course that is next to nothing compared to nothing.
ShortCourage -
Everybody seems to be off topic here, so here goes....
I have given up on the casino, I'm mostly in cash with a chunk with PIMPCO, they seem to have their hands in the taxpayers pocket so might see something out of that along the lines of 3%-4%.
I look at the SP500 reported earnings, expected reported earnings and I'm seeing a P/E of 130, that is a little too high for me.
GDD9000,
There are two New Jerseys. North Jersey is very densely populated and poluted. South Jersey is wonderful farmland and truly has great tomatoes as well as other crops like sweet corn and cranberries.
The nukular joke is from my days as a construction hand working in the shadow of the Salem nuclear facilities. The thought of nuclear exposure weighed on me at the time, but that third arm that grew out of my rib cage really comes in handy.
here's a relatively recent article, blackhalo:
Business & Economics Articles | California Ag Exports Include Large Amounts of 'Embedded Water' | Miller-McCune Online Magazine
with some of the issues presented in CV farming.
page 3 breaks down the exports as of 2007
http://aic.ucdavis.edu/pub/briefs/brief35.pdf
but, really, just cruise from redding down to tehachapi on google earth and come to your own conclusions.
Somebody lay out the argument for buying this stock, please?
Well, you're not gonna put your money in real estate are you? Look at vehicle traffic: Down, down, down. People are staying at home waiting for their mail Who mails things? Amazon! Look at unemployment: Up, up, up. People now have time to read long Russian novels about angst and deprivation. Who has long Russian novels? Amazon. Q.E.D.
nova, those are good arguments to be an Amazon customer, but not a stockholder.
sm_landlord, as soon as I meet someone who owns a Kindle (here in geek central, Silicon Valley), then I'll consider the possibility that Kindle is for real. But I see real problems with it, in particular the price, and also its effect of canabalizing their other (real book) sales.
Angry....LOL...third arm. Granted you may know me as CA commenter, but you apparently do not know that I spent close to 20 years in NJ
Ive watched the place as it evolved from farmland to suburbia, and all sorts of other change. I know exacree what you talkin bout. However, it is not just 2 joyseys. NW and NEW, completely different. NW is my favorite, and still relatively unspoiled. Check out Frenchtown and the likes.
South...hmmm. Well, how bout I just say (other than the Jersey shore) "no comment"
Short - also, there is no replacement for the visual value of stacks of books on shelves, so that when your friends come over, after dinner parties, they can peruse, discuss, borrow. WIth kindle, it's just not nearly as intimate.
gdd9000 (the non-artist formerly known as Geoff)
Angry
You from Jersey? What exit?
Spent two weeks in the middle and I was surprised, not what I expected, it was kind of nice.
My father grew up in Bloomsbury. It was very rural then.
Kauai - NJ surprises lots of folks...except those that only see it from the NJ Turnpike. That pretty much will fully meet your expectations.
full disclosure : 8A
gdd9000 (the non-artist formerly known as Geoff)
Kauai_Kahuna wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 4:49 pm
ShortCourage - I look at the SP500 reported earnings, expected reported earnings and I'm seeing a P/E of 130, that is a little too high for me.
Me too. I completely agree.
But playing devils advocate, you could make the argument that S&P500 earnings are at depressed levels, and are due for a rebound as financial write-downs subside.
For Amazon, you cannot make that argument. Their earnings are due to fall from bubble levels as the consumer goes further underwater, credit cards are taken away, and states demand a piece of the online receipts.
Then again, I've been wrong about them so far!
Shortcourage,
You said my list was good as a customer. Isn't that what you look for when you buy a company?
nova: the game is rigged, why are the insiders selling?
-since this is a graph thread, check out these cool interactive graphs in this new CFR report:
Crisis Guide: The Global Economy - Council on Foreign Relations
click on Chapter Three: Motion Charts.
Financial write-downs subside.
That will happen when housing stops going down, then they still have to earn their way out of a deep hole. In short, I don't think it will happen within the next six months. But I'm wrong quite often, though I still do not want to be putting my hardly earned cash at risk.
barfly -
-since this is a graph thread, check out these cool interactive graphs in this new CFR report:
Nice, thanks for the link, something to watch late at night.
Is that all ya got, CR?
Repeating a meme that has been brought up a few times, loss of a job prior to ~1980 often meant that a non-working spouse might get a job and help fill the void. Since then, most families budgeted for and depended on two incomes. The job loss of either (nominally twice as likely as if only one worked) meant severe financial problems and no backup.
Reminds me of a Mark Twain story, ... but I'll save that for later.
Good points on Amazon. Probably why I should never attempt the the moves people here talk about.
re amazon
that's a stock i wouldn't fight. i buy most of my christmas presents there because there are no crowds to fight, free shipping, no sales tax, 10-50% off everything. the stock might be overvalued but it is a great place to consume.
brinker nyse:EAT, the parent company of chili's really pissed me off. way overvalued. according to the puts that i hold on this pos it should be trading in the single digits. their food is crap. the soup comes in big frozen bags that they thaw and then dump into warmer bins. yummy
I just finished posting another part of my CR inspired story "American Apocalypse."
A sample:
The little girl piped up “No, but Mr. Bunny is.”
“Okay. Bring Mr. Bunny over here. How about you kid?”
He nodded his head.
“You got a bottle or canteen?”
“We appreciate this” Leader told Max who ignored him.
“Here.” The woman sitting next to Cardiac Man reached in her pack and pulled out a 2 liter bottle of Pepsi. She drained the little bit that was left and handed it to the boy. “Freakin Pepsi is for shit as a cure for real thirst.”
The little girl had Mr. Bunny out of her pack and was holding him up to Max.
Max to his 2 liter out and took the cap off. He held the opening up to Mr. Bunnys lips for a minute until the girl pulled him away.
“Mr. Bunny says Thank you!”
“You’re welcome Mr. Bunny. Do you want a drink?”
She nodded her head yes. “All we have is Pepsi and Mrs. Slarmy isn’t sharing.”
site: afterthecrash.net
Last time we had a Demo majority in both Houses was 1979? What a fun year that was.............
Carters last two years.......
Nuclear Meltdown @ 3-Mile Island.......
Start of Iran Hostage Crisis......
Energy Crisis........
The Marxist Sandinistas take control of Nicaragua......
The Chrysler Corporation asks the United States government for $1 billion to avoid bankruptcy.....
The Soviet Union invades Afghanistan......
Worldwide per capita oil production reaches an historic peak........and of course.....
Ozzy Osbourne becomes the prince of darkness.
You from Jersey? What exit?
KK,
Another variant of that well deserved joke is "what mall?"
Ozzy pissed on the Alamo about then also. It was good year for me. I got out of the freakin military.
State IOUs Q&A
here is q& a about ious
source: New Car Reviews, Ratings & Pricing, Auto News for New Models
Interesting. I would have gone with the opposite...
The NYT dug through Abrams Consulting Group data on car rental prices, and it seems the cost of part-time wheels has gone up considerably in the last year. By how much?
In May, the average rate for a weekly airport rental of a compact car booked seven days in advance was $345.99, up a whopping 73 percent compared with $199.65 for the same month last year . . . In mid-June, weekly airport rental rates for a compact car averaged $347.44, compared with $210.38 a year ago.
i worked in jersey for a few weeks. i helped open a sporting goods store called galyan's in woodbridge (wood-something). great place with great people. got treated like family from day one. 'course, the same thing happened in eugene, or. when i helped open a home depot.
nova, and sneering nihilist:
Again, great arguments to be a customer are not necessarily great arguments to be a stockholder. From an investor's point of view, how are these things good?
- Free shipping!
- 10-50% off of everything!
Those things are not good for profits. The profits only improve if those things bring large increases in volume of sales. I'm here to question how they grow their sales volume in an environment of people going into savings mode, and out of consuming mode.
Now the argument about grabbing the sales of their dead competitors has some merit. But I think the size of the overall pie will shrink such that having a bigger piece of the pie will not make up for it.
Angry Saver - Another variant of that well deserved joke is "what mall?"
I was amazed that so many stereotypes seemed to ring true. Walked up to check in the hotel and the clerk said, "Hey, how you doing".
All in all though everyone I met was really nice and interesting. I don't see that often and it really stuck with me.
GDD9000,
NW NJ is still unspoiled.
Speaking of NW NJ, a few wall streeters (led by a GS alum I think) bought out Hidden Valley Ski resort at peak bubble. Their plan was to CONvert it into a private club.
What a CONcept. Buy high and baghold.
It's mind boggling how wall street so richly rewarded so many dingbats. No doubt about it, we had a HUGE bubble in rewarding dingbats. I've witnessed it first hand for over a decade.
"CR is a charp0rn star" ROTFLOL ! !! (LL)
Some great joshes tonight... Last post was better but still good (albeit not clean) comedy....
all!
(and a HT to WestSacGrrl!)
ShortCourage (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 4:52 pm
reply ignore user
nova, those are good arguments to be an Amazon customer, but not a stockholder.
sm_landlord, as soon as I meet someone who owns a Kindle (here in geek central, Silicon Valley), then I'll consider the possibility that Kindle is for real. But I see real problems with it, in particular the price, and also its effect of canabalizing their other (real book) sales.
I just saw a guy on the Bart with one. I still prefer paper though
Based on the little I've read everyone loses their asses on Ski Resports in the northeast.....
i helped open a sporting goods store called galyan's in woodbridge
Gaylans? Did you know NJ's Gay Governor, Jim McGreevey, was mayor of Woodbridge? It all makes sense now.
Those end of month summaries of CR's sure are painful. Hard to make green shoots stand up to those charts...
It was one of the worst months in history; I wonder why people are generally upbeat? Is it because they are happy that the big banks are now as sound as the dollar?
Nice charts CR but...
Bah! Recession's over starting tomorrow, magical GREEN SHOOTING GROWTH Q3.
shortcourage -- i generally agree with all of your points and you are probably correct that the stock price needs to come down short to mid-term. amazon has just been so good for me that i want to be a gasp long term share holder the horror! so i would welcome a violent pullback. i do agree that the consumption pie is shrinking and that this will hurt amazon near term though.
the bottom line is that amazon is a great company to do business with. i buy professional cooking tools for my mom and professional construction tools for myself there. amazon will come out of this a winner.
short EAT. who the hell eats at chili's? go to wal-mart and pick up a frozen hungry man dinner instead.
Gaylans? Did you know NJ's Gay Governor, Jim McGreevey, was mayor of Woodbridge? It all makes sense now.
best part is that galyans was bought out by dick's nyse:DKS. i'm not kidding.
Don't ever try Dicks.com looking for Dick's Sporting Goods. I did that once.
@wally - most people have completely forgotten. No one I know talks about October, anymore. MJ's death is much more relevant. If they have a job, most of them say things: It's bound to get better, soon. Or: I just closed a deal. Most people have learned to tune out their 401(k) - the only investment vehicle most have outside of their house (ha!, sad). The ones who are aware of their 401(k) say things like: the market will shoot on back up, just takes time. Or, this is a great time to buy. Most people I know are complete and total f'n morons. Most people I know make more money than I do. What was that convo on college baseball, again?
The weather is nice. The world hasn't ended. People have gotten used to saving for a rainy day. The big bubble companies are taking on water, but it will remedy in time.
It's life back to a new, near-normal on mainstreet. Give it time. Hell, give Obama time. It will tank soon enough.
Remember, a society in which partying is a highly paid skill is doomed to fail.
rr
@outsider
Roflmao!
RockyR - Remember, a society in which partying is a highly paid skill is doomed to fail.
Well there goes my career. You mean people actually work now days?
outsider --
like a wondering kid looking at an iron which may or may not be hot... "if i touch it i'll know for sure"
now i wonder what i might find at dicks.com... hmmm
A little floyd.... YouTube - Pink Floyd - Lost for words
@kahuna - not many of them. Those that do aren't paid all that well.
Suckers.
@barfly - the interactive chart at CFR is an excellent update of the Gapminder set and format. I've been using it for years on country GDP and other indicators. Very illuminating. Sometimes shocking.
C
Beeker on CNBC was going off on blogs, it seems we are all a bunch of mean high school girls gossiping away.
"who the hell eats at chili's? go to wal-mart and pick up a frozen hungry man dinner instead."
And eat it cold. It will still be better than chili's.
Who's Beeker? He's not in our special clubhouse is he... Must be a douche.
C
Hi, Beeker! Glad you could join us.
That's because we think CNBC is populated by a bunch of mouth-breathers. Well paid mouth breathers, but mouth breathers.
You hear that Maria? M-o-u-t-h b-r-e-a-t-h-e-r-s.
"Beeker on CNBC was going off on blogs, it seems we are all a bunch of mean high school girls gossiping away. "
While CNBC promotes Twitter every few seconds...
Off topic, but does anyone here include SS benefits into their future earnings expectations, or include the tax as part of their savings rate?
Please don't laugh, I'm just wondering.
Agreed.
Chili's is s*it for obese middle america...
Slop for the hogs.
Kauai_Kahuna
I actually count on it for retirement....
their future earnings expectations
Future earnings expectations?
BA HA HA HA HA....
That's a good one, KK.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 6:07 pm
reply ignore user
Kauai_Kahuna
I actually count on it for retirement....
My condolences (:
SS Benefits?
If I live long enough to collect, and if there is anything to collect, it will be so shrunken by inflation that it won't matter much.
And including taxes paid as savings?
Dude, someone put some bad stuff in your good stuff.
Social security? Hahahaha!!!
Nope, just another tax to pay for other people to sit on their asses.
grrrl,talking to my neighbors it seems like a good year for pinot (so far).The yield looks good,the quality is very high with demand and price down a bit for the best quality grapes.I helped a friend with the harvest last year and was surprised at how big a difference there was between various clones of pinot grown side by side and again at the differences between vines of the same clone grown 200 yards apart but with different exposure to wind and sun and a different drainage.You can taste the difference in the wine,try a Suacci-Carciere pinot,ad then one of Jamie Whitbreads "Bella-Vigna" Suacci is 777 clone and B-V a mix of 777 and swan.Even given that different winemakers are involved they are surprisingly distinct.
Thomas Hoenig (our favorite Fed Governor) gave a speech today at the New York University's Stern School of Business.
He continues to take on TBTF and suggests three key components in how to deal with TBTF:
1) Limit leverage ratio, which is very simple to measure and difficult to manipulate (as opposed to risk-based capital ratios)
2) Define a resolution process for failed large financial institutions (Hoenig does say that even existing tools allow to do that, but he argues a clear and "statutorily sanctioned" process blueprint would be of great value)
3) Management of failed institutions must be replaced and stockholders wiped out.
There is a lot more in the speech. For example, Hoenig emphasizes the importance of ensuring fair outcomes when banks fail, which should be free of political influences.
Yet, somehow nobody mentions him as a potential replacement for Geithner or Bernanke. I wonder why ...
I'm overwhelmed by the amount of information CR has posted. How can he do that so easily?
He's a ninja.....
Tom Stone -
I'm mostly a beer and mead man, but do you have any links for good wine reviews and recommendations. I keep around 12 bottles at home for when I feel like a good wine, and it's always a good thing to bring to a friends house but I have not kept up with the commercial stock lately.
I'm overwhelmed by the amount of information CR has posted. How can he do that so easily?
Posting charts is easy. It is producing them that is hard
SS? next you will want free health care!
Thanks Mr. Stone, for the update on the clone.
You guys are hard on Chili's.
Decent food? Check
Decent price? Check
Menu for almost every taste? Check
Sports on the TV's? Check
A meal without the kids? Check
For all that, I can put up with inconsistent service a few times a year.
Beeker on CNBC was going off on blogs, it seems we are all a bunch of mean high school girls gossiping away.
ZeroHedge has apparently rattled some king-hell cages.
I sit by my comment that Chili's is S*it for obese middle america.
To put it politely I've gotten "digestive issues" the three times I've eaten there.
Slop for hogs.
As for SS, I stopped including it in my retirement planning or counting it as part of my savings rate around 6 years ago, I know late to the party and all that. I was just wondering about how others classify it.
I look at it as a tax only, and a future toxic asset meaning I will not see a penny of the returns and most likely tapped to cover the sort fall.
KK, I include future vino expectations as part of my savings rate.
Hoenig's not a governor, but a FRB president. IMO, Hoenig suffers from the same slight that Bair receives: he's perceived as a country bumpkin who's not part of the academic/financial elite. Which, of course, is probably a desirable trait at this point.
Dr. Hoenig was born on September 6, 1946, at Fort Madison, Iowa. He earned a B.A. in economics and mathematics from Benedictine College, Atchison, Kansas, and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in economics from Iowa State University.
"SS? next you will want free health care!"
healthcare is a right. along those lines, so is food. and water. and shelter.
and jobs.
and transportation.
If I get SS my kids will enjoy it. I am not going to rely on this BK government for anything except theft by taxes.
The reason I have been to Chili's as much as I have in the past few years is that I had a boss who every year gave me a gift certificate for Maggiano's which also worked at Chili's. That worked out to one date for my wife and I to Maggiano's or two or three to Chili's and that's what we went with. Food always tastes better when it's a free.
"SS? next you will want free health care!"
YES WE CAN!
RR if you have all that then who needs a job?
Basel Too - you are correct, thank you!
"RR if you have all that then who needs a job?"
Ben, you and I see things a lot the same way. I'm glad you understand what I'm driving at.
I'm sorry.....I don't think she "gets it".
"To a great extent, the structural budget gap reflects demographic shifts resulting in an aging population coupled with a chronic escalation in health-care costs."
For those of us local to So. Cal. I added graphs for Trustee sales for June for San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles and Ventura County over at Effective Demand
I would also recommend following the IAS360 House Price Index (404 | Integrated Asset Services. It’s the only timely (3-4 weeks before Case Schiller) and granular index to go down to the county level making it the leading industry index.