I like to chat up my waitress when I go out to eat, as I find them to be an excellent source of what's what, and a few have told me they just want to get more hours, as in they are working split-shifts with other waitresses also working just 20 hours a week...
km4 (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 2:36 pm
But but but the rate of personal savings ( personal income less personal outlays ) surged to 6.9 percent in May, a level last seen in December 1993.
Is this a green shoot ?
Savings to Bernanke is like a crucifix to a vampire.
Americans saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 44.8 percent from 43.9 percent the previous month, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" slid to 4.5 percent from May's 5.8 percent.
About 1 in 20 people think that jobs are plentiful?
By the way I can confirm with a visual, we have a local sandwich shop was always standing room only, 20 maybe 25 minutes to get a sandwich....now...bang in and out in 5 minutes.
I gotta say, CR does come up with some of the most interesting (obscure?) stats.
here is another series to start watching CR. This data series is from the MI industry, and is posted each month. If you are really ambitious you can go on their website and compile a few year's worth of data. it is pretty timely as well; today they just posted May results. in that regard it is a month ahead of GSE data (Fannie's data yesterday had April default rates).
Forget the year-on-year absolute numbers, one industry participant has dropped and another added, the only relevant data is the ratios of cures/defaults. Note that these are flows, so a cure/default ratio significantly below 1 means delinquency inventory is building (nothwithstanding claims paid/denied, which also removes loans from inventory).
For me this is canary-in-the-coalmine type of info. And the canary ain't looking so healthy. Cure/default ratio for May was 0.60. 6 cures for every 10 defaults.
Green Shoots = Being relieved that a gun shot wound is bleeding more slowly because of lowered blood pressure as a consequence of overall blood-loss and the onset of shock which is often the prelude to death from said wound.
Forgive me if I am less than optimistic Dennis Kneal.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 3:12 pm
Jeeze.......what did you guys do while I was gone? I go and milk and the recovery is over? Thanks, guys!
Maybe Nemo's monkey pressed a wrong button and now Nemo is being enhanced-interrogated.
There's this excellent cafe in town that only does breakfast and lunch, and I was there a few days ago, and got the last parking spot available @ the time, and walked past about 20 people milling outside waiting to be seated, as I walked in the door to snag the last spot at the counter...
You'd never know that the unemployment rate is close to 20% here, judging from how busy they are.
The eatery troubles are hitting close to home. The local tv station did a report on the bbq/burger/catering joint a few miles from where I live (think diners, drive-ins and dives kinda place that has been around for decades and would survive anything - along with the roaches). Well they started off with the waitress. Said tips were way down since people were splitting portions and she really needed the money since she got laid off of her other job. Then they talked to the owner. Despite facing cost increases he was cutting prices to boost traffic. Topped it off with him saying 'No IMMEDIATE plans to close'.
Anyone else think BO's latest polling and consumer confidence numbers linked? I think the jig is just about up.
There's a new restaurant opening up next week here, and I was thinking it might be less painful just to whack yourself in the forehead with a ball peen hammer, in lieu of setting sale in choppy waters.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 10:18 am
You'd never know that the unemployment rate is close to 20% here, judging from how busy they are.
People will do whatever is necessary to sustain the illusion, and food is relatively cheap, so it is much easier to lie to yourself about this than, say, a home that lost half its "value" in a year, a retirement fund down 40% which you expected to cash out in 5 years, or a job that's been trimmed to 32 hour weeks.
.......GOOD restaurants are in better shape to weather this lengthy storm vs. 20-30 years ago, for two reasons: One, nobody cooks anymore, and secondly, many more retired eat out DAILY. When this retired crowd starts losing retirement checks or after scale-back, you'll see more stay at home "cat food connoisseurs".
"Spent last week in Vancouver and ate at several very crowded restaurants...one was an hour long wait... "
You waited an hour to eat? That is hard for me to imagine, cause I only go out to eat when hungry and the idea of sitting around for an hour, hungry would set me off.
all these anecdotes about "I went to this restaurant and it was really busy" or "this place is normally packed but it was empty" aren't very instructive; even in a good economy restaurants fall in and out of favor. i am sure new restaurants will open tomorrow that will survive 100 years, while others that survived 100 years will close tomorrow. I wouldn't draw a conclusion based on that.
that is why CR's data is so valuable, it shows industry trends, and is much more "tradeable".
Restaurant traffic is a poor indicator of wealth trends, without knowing profit margins and distribution among high-priced and low-priced communal food service options.
I think there's a case to be made in the restaurant industry for a "Bed Bath & Beyond Effect." BB&B saw a slight uptick in sales when Linens'N'Things BKd.
all these anecdotes about "I went to this restaurant and it was really busy" or "this place is normally packed but it was empty" aren't very instructive
spot-on ghost. Its whats in the till that counts. Even if a restaraunt is crowded it doesn't mean Bo if the avg ticket is lower (splitting entrees, cutting out alcohol, apps only, etc.)
For me this is canary-in-the-coalmine type of info. And the canary ain't looking so healthy. Cure/default ratio for May was 0.60. 6 cures for every 10 defaults.
That ratio looks like a perfect candidate for second derivative stats. Redefaults of cures etc.
As for canaries and coal mines, I'm not taking any chances. I've (h)adit.
We were skiing up in Tahoe in February and ate @ a Carrows in south lake, and the waitress told us she had been waitressing for 23 years and had never seen a downturn in restaurant business like the past year, nothing even close.
Anecdotal stories like this are priceless, and tells you what is really happening, as opposed to a bunch of cooked-to-order numbers...
"About 1 in 20 people think that jobs are plentiful? "
You probably get a joker for about every 20 people surveyed. And a few people that suffer from dementia &/or poor reading comprehension. Not surprising, really.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 8:33 am
reply ignore user
Ok, all restaurants aren't created equal, but all Trader Joe's are.
That's my personal barometer of how things are going financially. When TJ's starts closing locations is when the hurt hits home.
The trader joes in Fremont, ca is still pretty busy but nowhere near as full as 6 months ago.
I'm in rural flyover, but have some great mom and pop's eateries that are having very slooooo times. It's as if everyone is in hibernation, no traffic.
Luckily my wife is a fantastic cook but we still like to go out from time to time.
The FoodPorn channel may be at fault; you never know.
I like watching Anthony Bourdain's show; No Reservations.
MaryAnn (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 10:44 am
I'm in rural flyover, but have some great mom and pop's eateries that are having very slooooo times. It's as if everyone is in hibernation, no traffic.
Flyover adapts much quicker. Many who've seen hard times or grew up around or in poverty and they don't forget. Rude awakenings are coming to the upper middle classes on the coasts... whenever the money runs out. Reality is at the door.
Obamma,s policies may not be working as well as many had hoped:
1st 100 days - There are 2.9 million more people unemployed in May than there were unemployed in January. The unemployment rate went from 7.6% to 9.4%. Since May 2008, we have lost 5.5 million jobs. The biggest losers were: Manufacturing 1.5 million lost Finance & Prof Serv 1.5 million lost Construction 1.1 million lost Retail & Leisure 1.3 million lost
Nemo, where are you?
Neeemo...come back Nemo...come back.
I don't like restaurants that have traffic going through them- too dangerous.
I like to chat up my waitress when I go out to eat, as I find them to be an excellent source of what's what, and a few have told me they just want to get more hours, as in they are working split-shifts with other waitresses also working just 20 hours a week...
So what I do with my gift certificates to PF Changs and Applebees?
km4 (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 2:36 pm
But but but the rate of personal savings ( personal income less personal outlays ) surged to 6.9 percent in May, a level last seen in December 1993.
Is this a green shoot ?
Savings to Bernanke is like a crucifix to a vampire.
OT: from the consumer confidence report.
Americans saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 44.8 percent from 43.9 percent the previous month, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" slid to 4.5 percent from May's 5.8 percent.
About 1 in 20 people think that jobs are plentiful?
Restaurants: 21st Consecutive Month of Traffic Declines
Nobody goes there anymore because it's too crowded.
-Yogi Berra
Fed buys $7 billion in Treasury's
By the way I can confirm with a visual, we have a local sandwich shop was always standing room only, 20 maybe 25 minutes to get a sandwich....now...bang in and out in 5 minutes.
Jeeze.......what did you guys do while I was gone? I go and milk and the recovery is over? Thanks, guys!
I gotta say, CR does come up with some of the most interesting (obscure?) stats.
here is another series to start watching CR. This data series is from the MI industry, and is posted each month. If you are really ambitious you can go on their website and compile a few year's worth of data. it is pretty timely as well; today they just posted May results. in that regard it is a month ahead of GSE data (Fannie's data yesterday had April default rates).
MICA Issues Monthly Statistical Report: Insurance in Force Remains Strong
Forget the year-on-year absolute numbers, one industry participant has dropped and another added, the only relevant data is the ratios of cures/defaults. Note that these are flows, so a cure/default ratio significantly below 1 means delinquency inventory is building (nothwithstanding claims paid/denied, which also removes loans from inventory).
For me this is canary-in-the-coalmine type of info. And the canary ain't looking so healthy. Cure/default ratio for May was 0.60. 6 cures for every 10 defaults.
JP: About 1 in 20 people think that jobs are plentiful?
Obama is tripling Americorps and surging in Afghanistan.
Green Shoots = Being relieved that a gun shot wound is bleeding more slowly because of lowered blood pressure as a consequence of overall blood-loss and the onset of shock which is often the prelude to death from said wound.
Forgive me if I am less than optimistic Dennis Kneal.
"So what I do with my gift certificates to PF Changs and Applebees?"
....don't worry about it C&C....your state government takes the money before expiration without telling you. (true - read thread from yesterday).
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 3:12 pm
Jeeze.......what did you guys do while I was gone? I go and milk and the recovery is over? Thanks, guys!
Maybe Nemo's monkey pressed a wrong button and now Nemo is being enhanced-interrogated.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 8:12 am
Jeeze.......what did you guys do while I was gone? I go and milk and the recovery is over? Thanks, guys!
The economy has been merrily sucking that 4th dry teat since March and is just now beginning to realize there's something wrong.
Nemo has to eat...perform the three S's sometime. He's not REALLY a bot you know.
There's this excellent cafe in town that only does breakfast and lunch, and I was there a few days ago, and got the last parking spot available @ the time, and walked past about 20 people milling outside waiting to be seated, as I walked in the door to snag the last spot at the counter...
You'd never know that the unemployment rate is close to 20% here, judging from how busy they are.
Spent last week in Vancouver and ate at several very crowded restaurants...one was an hour long wait...
geeze, dawg...you remember the strangest things......LOL
The eatery troubles are hitting close to home. The local tv station did a report on the bbq/burger/catering joint a few miles from where I live (think diners, drive-ins and dives kinda place that has been around for decades and would survive anything - along with the roaches). Well they started off with the waitress. Said tips were way down since people were splitting portions and she really needed the money since she got laid off of her other job. Then they talked to the owner. Despite facing cost increases he was cutting prices to boost traffic. Topped it off with him saying 'No IMMEDIATE plans to close'.
Anyone else think BO's latest polling and consumer confidence numbers linked? I think the jig is just about up.
The index has been declining since early 2004.
Don't tell me some people started using their stainless-steel kitchens.
"Fed buys $7 billion in Treasury's"
you would swear we had some debt to auction or something.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Permanent Open Market Operations
So.....we have already eaten all the green shoots?
OT:
Firefox 3.5 is officially out....
There's a new restaurant opening up next week here, and I was thinking it might be less painful just to whack yourself in the forehead with a ball peen hammer, in lieu of setting sale in choppy waters.
I give em' 6 months...
We will not Monetize:
Firefox 3.5, isn't that just beta 2? not RC or RTM...
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 10:18 am
You'd never know that the unemployment rate is close to 20% here, judging from how busy they are.
People will do whatever is necessary to sustain the illusion, and food is relatively cheap, so it is much easier to lie to yourself about this than, say, a home that lost half its "value" in a year, a retirement fund down 40% which you expected to cash out in 5 years, or a job that's been trimmed to 32 hour weeks.
.......GOOD restaurants are in better shape to weather this lengthy storm vs. 20-30 years ago, for two reasons: One, nobody cooks anymore, and secondly, many more retired eat out DAILY. When this retired crowd starts losing retirement checks or after scale-back, you'll see more stay at home "cat food connoisseurs".
"Spent last week in Vancouver and ate at several very crowded restaurants...one was an hour long wait... "
You waited an hour to eat? That is hard for me to imagine, cause I only go out to eat when hungry and the idea of sitting around for an hour, hungry would set me off.
The wife and I are doing our part... since moving from the desolate burbs to Chicago, we've been eating (and drinking) out a lot more!
Eating out during work hours is another reason not to work or deal with pesky co-workers.
all these anecdotes about "I went to this restaurant and it was really busy" or "this place is normally packed but it was empty" aren't very instructive; even in a good economy restaurants fall in and out of favor. i am sure new restaurants will open tomorrow that will survive 100 years, while others that survived 100 years will close tomorrow. I wouldn't draw a conclusion based on that.
that is why CR's data is so valuable, it shows industry trends, and is much more "tradeable".
Firefox 3.5 is officially out....
thanks!
Sorry for the broken record:
Restaurant traffic is a poor indicator of wealth trends, without knowing profit margins and distribution among high-priced and low-priced communal food service options.
Ok, all restaurants aren't created equal, but all Trader Joe's are.
That's my personal barometer of how things are going financially. When TJ's starts closing locations is when the hurt hits home.
I think there's a case to be made in the restaurant industry for a "Bed Bath & Beyond Effect." BB&B saw a slight uptick in sales when Linens'N'Things BKd.
all these anecdotes about "I went to this restaurant and it was really busy" or "this place is normally packed but it was empty" aren't very instructive
spot-on ghost. Its whats in the till that counts. Even if a restaraunt is crowded it doesn't mean Bo if the avg ticket is lower (splitting entrees, cutting out alcohol, apps only, etc.)
@CCB
The final, official, non-beta release of 3.5 is out.
Go ahead go to Help>Check for Update.s... in firefox and it will grab the update.
no it is Firefox 3.5 RC, they pushed up the release schedule...
For me this is canary-in-the-coalmine type of info. And the canary ain't looking so healthy. Cure/default ratio for May was 0.60. 6 cures for every 10 defaults.
That ratio looks like a perfect candidate for second derivative stats. Redefaults of cures etc.
As for canaries and coal mines, I'm not taking any chances. I've (h)adit.
We were skiing up in Tahoe in February and ate @ a Carrows in south lake, and the waitress told us she had been waitressing for 23 years and had never seen a downturn in restaurant business like the past year, nothing even close.
Anecdotal stories like this are priceless, and tells you what is really happening, as opposed to a bunch of cooked-to-order numbers...
OT-A simple question-who the heck is pouring money into reits to keep them up? rant off...excuse my stupidity....
JPM and GS have sold a bunch of secondary offerings worth little to senior citizens....who just dont know....
"About 1 in 20 people think that jobs are plentiful? "
You probably get a joker for about every 20 people surveyed. And a few people that suffer from dementia &/or poor reading comprehension. Not surprising, really.
Perhaps restaurants need to alter their menus to suit changing tastes and budgets.
Gourmet gruel. Mmmmmm. Enjoy your depression.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 8:33 am
reply ignore user
Ok, all restaurants aren't created equal, but all Trader Joe's are.
That's my personal barometer of how things are going financially. When TJ's starts closing locations is when the hurt hits home.
The trader joes in Fremont, ca is still pretty busy but nowhere near as full as 6 months ago.
Thought experiment:
200 diners, 5 establishments.
Four restaurants have ten customers and one has 160.
Survey the customers and the supermajority will tell you business is booming.
@Conjure Colostomy Bag
This is what I see after the update.
Flickr: Image
I don't see any mention of RC in the about. I would have expected for that to be designated.
Though you certainly could be right that it is.
Either way, I am happy to have tracemonkey.
I'm in rural flyover, but have some great mom and pop's eateries that are having very slooooo times. It's as if everyone is in hibernation, no traffic.
Is plywood on the front of a what was a very busy restaurant a bad sign?
I know so many young 'women' and 'men' who can't cook to save their lives. What will they do when they can't afford to eat out anymore?
I think that "mom and pop" eateries will not die, but just be redefined.
If I upgrade to Firefox 3.5, do I get a $15k tax credit?
OT-A simple question-who the heck is pouring money into reits to keep them up? rant off...excuse my stupidity....
That would be the fed. They just expanded the TALF to include legacy CMBS.
I don't think Mozilla's lobbyist is that good.
Everybody is staying home and cooking. It's the Food Channels fault. They learned to cook! Just like flipper shows and HGTV caused the housing mess!
Luckily my wife is a fantastic cook but we still like to go out from time to time.
The FoodPorn channel may be at fault; you never know.
I like watching Anthony Bourdain's show; No Reservations.
MaryAnn (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/30/2009 - 10:44 am
I'm in rural flyover, but have some great mom and pop's eateries that are having very slooooo times. It's as if everyone is in hibernation, no traffic.
Flyover adapts much quicker. Many who've seen hard times or grew up around or in poverty and they don't forget. Rude awakenings are coming to the upper middle classes on the coasts... whenever the money runs out. Reality is at the door.
We need to stop the corruption by Goldman, bank of Amerika, and Jp Morgan. Stop the Geithner and bernanke. .
Financial Opinions Updated Daily iamned.com
read the full Rolling Stone [Taibbi] The Great American Bubble Machine article.
Obamma,s policies may not be working as well as many had hoped:
1st 100 days - There are 2.9 million more people unemployed in May than there were unemployed in January. The unemployment rate went from 7.6% to 9.4%. Since May 2008, we have lost 5.5 million jobs. The biggest losers were: Manufacturing 1.5 million lost Finance & Prof Serv 1.5 million lost Construction 1.1 million lost Retail & Leisure 1.3 million lost
good articles Financial Opinions Updated Daily iamned.com
recommended reading
Why isnt the stock market falling when the economy is sinking? Why cant we get change in Washington that we really need? Why vote?