"All but four states must have new budgets in place less than two weeks from now — by July 1, the start of their fiscal year. But most are already predicting shortfalls as tax collections shrink, unemployment rises and the stock market remains in turmoil."
"In all, states will face a $121 billion budget gap in the coming fiscal year, according to a recent report by the National Conference of State Legislatures, compared with $102.4 billion for this fiscal year."
"As a result, governors have recommended increasing taxes and fees by some $24 billion for the coming fiscal year, the survey found. This is on top of more than $726 million they sought in new revenues this year."
//"In all, states will face a $121 billion budget gap in the coming fiscal year, according to a recent report by the National Conference of State Legislatures, compared with $102.4 billion for this fiscal year."//
Well - this is the BIS saying there are still many "assets" listed on banks balance that are toxic. I think the headline is representative of their comments.
andiron, yeah ... Ally - I enjoyed the name change. As long as they pay their advertising bills!
I was catching up on Podcasts earlier tonight - an older This American Life - and one segment was on the workouts for underwater borrowers - that large banks are resisting, in very large part, because it will force an honest accounting on the amount of mark-to-fantasy toxic garbage still on the books. I suppose it's a little bit of a relief that PPIP is shrinking as a side effect...but yeah, we definitely should have pre-privatized and just cleared the market.
I think the stress tests showed that the U.S. should have pre-privatized BofA, Citigroup and GMAC. Oh well ... - CR
There's never enough time to do it right but always enough time to do it over. I hold out hope that the Hopium supply will run low and eventually Young Mr. President throws up his hands and says; "You know we tried doing it on the sly and we tried doing it through favoritism and we even tried doing it with Constitutional overreach. What say since everything else hasn't work that we try doing it right?"
dryfly - this doesn't matter one bit, but I just remembered, dau wasn't rejected from RPI but waitlisted. Same thing tho. Okay, sorry, just a little OCD here.
They are talking about raising the millage in the counties, 'cause
that will get around the homestead exemptions. Actually the
amount quoted per tract doesn't sound so bad to me, and
it is unfair to landlords and renters and Commercial Property
to bear so much of the county expenses. Screams are already
starting to be heard.
The other day, Erin Burnett was trying to justify the increased salaries at Citi by saying it was needed to "protect" the government's investment, so we couldn't let C fail via brain drain. At some point, the government needs to realize that it'll never be repaid; the problem banks simply need to be put into run-out mode. Don't even bother removing the toxic assets from these banks. Capitalize a new bank instead.
Paging Pavel: Pope: Scientific analysis done on St. Paul's bones ROME -- The first-ever scientific test on what are believed to be the remains of the Apostle Paul "seems to confirm" that they do indeed belong to the Roman Catholic saint, Pope Benedict XVI said Sunday.
It was the second major discovery concerning St. Paul announced by the Vatican in as many days.
On Saturday, the Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano announced the June 19 discovery of a fresco inside another tomb depicting St. Paul, which Vatican officials said represented the oldest known icon of the apostle.
Benedict said archaeologists recently unearthed and opened the white marble sarcophagus located under the Basilica of St. Paul's Outside the Walls in Rome, which for some 2,000 years has been believed by the faithful to be the tomb of St. Paul.
I am just curious - how is it possible in principle to prove that somebody's remain belong to a figure who is only known through literary descriptions??
Outsider: Was your daughter also an undergrad there?
At least at another prominent engineering school: Waitlist = honorable mention, unless you went there in which case it means that you did something funny and they want more info.
I hope the PPIP never happens..horrible idea from the get go. It was such a naked giveaway - swapping bad assets among the banks, using government dollars to do it - that the cynical part of me figured it was a shoo-in.
I know they literally cannot handle it, and it's the message that's been beaten to death here for some time...it was just nice to hear it clearly explained in a less wonky media market (ok, is CR a media market?).
"Some bankers were hesitant. "If these loans are bought at a discount, we create a hole in capital," Lou Akers, executive vice president of Adams National Bank in Washington, told FDIC officials on the March 26 call."
Basel - "Erin Burnett was trying to justify the increased salaries at Citi by saying it was needed to "protect" the government's investment, so we couldn't let C fail via brain drain." Honestly? Has she moved to SNL?
A bit of preemptive brain drain might have been just what the doctor ordered in Citi's case, instead of pretending the gangrene was a few surface lesions.
I think the stress tests showed that the U.S. should have pre-privatized BofA, Citigroup and GMAC.
The governments has been at pains trying very hard to argue that it is impossible to take over a big bank: too complicated, no legal framework, bad for recovery (another Lehman), etc.
Stress tests were not designed to identify which banks should be nationalized. There was no Fail on those tests.
I am just curious - how is it possible in principle to prove that somebody's remain belong to a figure who is only known through literary descriptions??
i never supported tarp either bush's 350 billion nor obama's 350 billion after that
so excuse me CR if i respectfully disagree about pre-privatization
the bankstas should have been allowed to fail...period
we have paid ransom to our rapists
i would have preferred the tarp money and all the rest of the fed window alphabet soup give away programs be directed to creating a "bank of the United States" which we could have broken up and privatized once the fiasco passed
the financial services industry which was 7% of gdp in the seventies and 15% of gdp in the eighties was approaching 40% of gdp just before the crash...a country that prides itself on shuffling papers that package securities and equities
we are nowhere near coming out of the woods on this little addventure
Wasn't purple cloth reserved for Emperors? If so, why was Paul, if it
was Paul wearing it? Gold sequins. Somehow, it's not what a woulda
thought. . . Defying the emperors for reasons of faith is one thing, but
disobeying in the matter of clothing is something else.
//I am just curious - how is it possible in principle to prove that somebody's remain belong to a figure who is only known through literary descriptions??//
Mmm..I had the impression that pre-privatizing was CR snark for avoiding the boogeyman phrase "nationalizing". And, MT, that is letting the banksters fail..I'm sure WAMU's shareholders feel that way.
//Erin Burnett was trying to justify the increased salaries at Citi by saying it was needed to "protect" the government's investment, so we couldn't let C fail via brain drain.//
Bloomberg is saying slump in Japan is easing, dollar is set to soar this year, treasuries have seen the worst of their slump as demand soars. All that optimism from bloomberg makes me uneasy.
Honduras was just a power grab by the President that a few people just said no to, I'm surprised he is still alive, my how times have changed. Chavez, They come for you!
Iran, et al, yes I agree.
mmckinl -In the same boat- her punishment is she has to negotiate the mod;-}
Only been at it two and a half months- I would guess another three or four is necessary for success.
She still pulls the "it was even bigger than you predicted"!
so excuse me CR if i respectfully disagree about pre-privatization
the bankstas should have been allowed to fail...period
Pre-privatization is takeover and orderly wind-down, with equity shareholders getting wiped out and debt holders getting converted into equity.
It is actually pretty simple and straightforward. Moreover, lawyers and academics spent decades finessing banks' capital structure - which class of investors goes after which in taking losses if the bank fails.
Only very intelligent people like Summers can make this straightforward process look like an impossibly difficult task
I am just curious - how is it possible in principle to prove that somebody's remain belong to a figure who is only known through literary descriptions??
I took the weekend off. Just getting back up to speed on the news... errrr, propaganda. It would appear that all is right as rain.
Anecdote: progress on our new mall and attached strip center in town is progressing nicely. Traffic at the big boxes looks brisk. Traffic in general is up around town and I'm getting a lot of "we are looking for a person to hire for xyz position" in my inbox (note: most of these positions are entry-level or require experience but don't pay well - the new norm I guess). Local UPS driver tells me that traffic is up after a major slump. Small business CEOs are reporting "significant warming" in both realized sales and sales pipelines.
OTOH: we took a Sunday drive up to OK. Not many trucks on the road.
I tell you what, my first visit to Rome, which included an audience with JP-II (the 1st Mrs. Comrade was a rather devout convert), was a real eye-opener...especially the visit to the cell...roadside America's got nothing on the Italians!
@C - Hah! I was laughing at the earlier commentary on SOB...I remember stopping there as a child for fireworks on pilgrammages to Jax Beach. Then the WaPo had an article on BB's childhood in Dillon, and the guy who's underwater right now in the old Bernanke manse...sooo much...synchronicity? I dunno.
Once again cheers to Billy Mays, without Ozyclean I would be scrubbing the heck out of my carboys and pots right now, instead I'm tipping a and reading this.
"Overall, governments may not have acted quickly enough to remove problem assets from the balance sheets of key banks," the BIS says in its annual report. "At the same time, government guarantees and asset insurance have exposed taxpayers to potentially large losses."
Scylla and Charybdis
Mock Turtle- Any relevant anecdotes from the cross country/round trip of our nation? Sorry for the loss of faith in the new administration. That truth was bitter for me as well.
Why isn't Byzantine Ruins posting? Did I miss a farewell from him/her?
@Liz - yes, the Mammertine is where they had their last stop...and the spring sprung up in the cell, a sign that converted a Roman guard.
@MT - well, I'm a happy socialist partisan, but I'm just not that vengeful anymore...I just want to make sure they pay, and being wiped out is good enough for me. Kenny Boy Lay's hari-kari (?) was pretty satisfying for me, even if it meant his wife was somewhat protected from some clawbacks.
So they did not want to use the word HUMUNGUS? How about FRIGGING HUGE. And just how do they define potentially?
OK, time to chill and keep cleaning up the mess I just made.
Sooo, what's Asia doing in light of the relentless positivity... Not much, except wait and see. Nikki's barely cleared throat, Taiex and Hang Seng have opted for a charming elmo outfit, Yen slipping against USD which is pushing the commode currencies down, AUD hovering just above 80c threshold.
But maybe they're doing something constructive like figuring out what recent PBoC signals mean.
externalized costs, you ask, do i have anecdotes...you bet!
the retail space in a suburb of dc, woodbridge va appeared to have more than doubled since i was there 7 years ago
real estate prices in georgetwon and dupont circle neighborhoods of dc have been unaffected by the crisis im told by a reliable and knowledgeable friend
i drove from greenwich conn to armonk ny and saw more mansions (palaces) in one place than id ever seen before, anywhere, and did not detect signs of economic pain in either fairfield county nor westchester county...very ritzy places even after the fall
Didn't we invent a Superfund a some decades ago to cleanup toxic wastes? All parties involved (plus the Feds) had to contribute according to the (respon)abilities, I thought.
Toxic Assets? Where are those economists who say losing 8 of 10 million and gaining 2 million are the same? Can't we get them to put a positive spin on this? Oh wait, they are trying.
....."also, there sure are a lot of 50-year olds dyin'"........... ...."you say that like it's a bad thing". ........
......I think the Good Lord might be keeping me busy for some unknown reason, but I sure do still get nervous when people younger than me "check-out" unintentionally. Just last Sunday I bought the Mrs a newer car from an old aquaintence - that night he died in his sleep. Outside of him being a drunk and a heavy pot-smoker, he surely didn't figure he'd die sittin in his BarcoLounger that night watching some horseshit show! Go figure.
I hear optimists will make excellent fertilizer for the green shoots next year. Problem is they aren't dead yet. Well nearly dead they'll be stone dead in a moment.
Optimists will make excellent fertilizer for the green shoots next year
Yes. I wrote it last night but... I still can not believe that FIVE new restaurants are opening at a one intersection in downtown Boise, even as business seems to be down 10-20% in other places. Somebody's gonna get a whupping next year.
...well, I could say "I'd love to sit and talk all night long", but I'd be lyin'....the Mrs made two loaves of zucchinni bread today and I'm fixin' to eat one of them before the 16-year old horse gets home from church and devours the other one. Hasta........
It drives me crazy that they are worried about a "dysfunctional" financial system, and imply that removing bad assets from balance sheets more aggressively will restore functionality. Personally, I think a system that rewards reckless lending, rewards speculation, rewards institutions that make bad loans, and rewards individuals that take on bad loans is as dysfunctional as it gets. I'll be surprised if credit still exists if we continue on this path to financial "recovery". Managed bankruptcy or preprivatization would actually address some of the dysfunction.
I still can not believe that FIVE new restaurants are opening at a one intersection
They didn't open them cash on the barrelhead. I wonder who lent them the money.
There's a significant increase in mortality rate for US men 50-60 versus 40-50...don't have a link ready to hand. The rate goes up for 60-70, and then 70-80 as you'd expect.
There 's a huge drag on the economy that nobody is talking about, and it's the real difficulty many people, especially the elderly, are having living on a fixed income. The interest rates on CDs and money market funds are just horrendous. Thanks, Ben!
If you are a retired couple with $500,000 and Social Security, and you are putting it in one-year CDs, your income has been cut by about 30-40% over the past two years and you have slipped below the poverty line.
There's two sides to low interest rates, one for borrowers (good if you have credit) and another that's bad for all savers.
The worst part of it is, some retired people are chasing higher yields into long-term bonds, and they'll soon regret it.
At times lately, I wonder why I'm working so hard to figure out where to invest.
But in this climate, if you can earn 10% on your money in 2009, it's worth the effort.
The greatest increases in U.S. longevity lately have been for men over age 50. Nobody knows why.
Whatever age you are now, it's ridiculous to base your projected life expectancy on 1960 mortality tables. You should always look at the current tables for your age. For example, if you are a 50 year old male today, your life expectancy is another 28.5 years.
it's ridiculous to base your projected life expectancy on 1960 mortality tables
Disagree.
I think it's important to include a big margin of error because the odd are good that you won't be able to do at 60 what you could do at 45. Quantity != Quality. If I live another 28.5 years (and it's not all sucky like the past five) then I'll be satisfied.
If you're not watching the Hispanic news for some reason, there has been a military coup in Honduras.
What makes it potentially de-stabilizing the the Western Hemisphere is that it opens the door for Hugo Chavez to go into Honduras with his growing army and try to put a Socialist in power. Of course, Obama would be drawn into that one.
You should always look at the current tables for your age.
Before I started reading CR, I fit the profile of someone who would live to be one hundred. Now the aggravation probably knocks me down to eighty.
Re: Life Expectancy
Look at a mortality curve as a time series and I bet the knee of the curve would still be at 80 or so no mater the increase in expectancy. Around 80 the cliff diving starts.
rich,
Reasonable points you make. I'm just saying that given the population bulge in the 44-64 range there's going to be an increase in mortality relative to the total population.
New restaurants are cheap to open IF you are opening using the previous failed restaurants capital investment. The lease holder will almost always forgive the remainder of a failed lease when you sign over the kitchen/bar equipment and sundry other items. Easy and relatively cheap if you are an established restaurateur to invest $50,000 and have a new restaurant ready to roll in a couple of months. Once a commercial space has been converted into foodservice you really have few options as a landlord in what you can do with it.
Caveat: If a location has seen more than three previous failed attempts as a restaurant then no matter the price your jiffy new concept will fail. Location, location, location holds especially true for restaurants.
Just checking in after a few days of no sleep. Lots of morbidity tonight, so allow me to turn it around 180 degrees for a minute. I've been a proud father for 5 days now. He's a seriously cute kid, tall and strapping, healthy and everything. I never imagined being a father would feel so good!
//Look at a mortality curve as a time series and I bet the knee of the curve would still be at 80 or so no mater the increase in expectancy. Around 80 the cliff diving starts.//
mp, I've been wondering about that myself. I assume that they would revert back to a command/state owned economy and string up the capitalists/bankers as scape goats. I would expect that all foreign ownership would be bought out with dollar/treasury surplus, if we're lucky. The recent rumors of commodity hoarding could be an attempt to store value/resources ahead of turbulent times. The chain of dominoes is so large, and the feedback loops so intertwined, that it makes me want to order a pallet of freeze dried food.
There are times when I think that the last decade or so have actually been WWIII. It's just that we got so focused on the absolute military nature of the last two (and a half if you want to count the cold war), that we've completely missed that this is a banking war. Our private bankers against the PBoC.
On a side note, after reading John Perkins "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" I came to the conclusion that at one time our bankers thought that they had set up a system that used debt to put the rest of the globe in a soft feudal bondage for our greater good, in a paternalistic sort of way. It would seem that somewhere along the way that the concept of noblesse oblige was lost and they turned on us too. The two Bush presidents would be good examples of the generational decay in action.
I just hope that chaos wouldn't lead to war as it tends to do. Demographically speaking, losing 20M men would be a good thing for them given their gender imbalance. Scary.
i havent posted in a while, but earlier there was talk of truck traffic, or the lack thereof. I wanted to add a anecdotal. here's a pic of a backup with lots of loads. its I-44 eastbound from tulsa toward St. louis. Friday afternoon: the traffic is pretty thick with big rigs. see a couple FedEx ones
butter - good pic. It's ALL trucks in the picture. Maybe the cars got diverted to side roads, where big rigs aren't allowed?
Then you'd be left with all trucks.
In which case, it'd be hard to conclude anything.
squid-true. Hadn't thought of that, but they reported the backup to be 14 miles. its a turnpike with few exits. its also damn busy everytime i'm on it. those rigs will pass me goin 80.
I never imagined being a father would feel so good!
Congratulations! Now I'll expect to see you around on the late shift as you try to blog with one hand and the baby in the other, trying to give mom a sleep break.
President Barack Obama could discuss a second stimulus package to boost the economy if needed, but at the moment no more new money looks necessary, a top White House adviser said on Sunday. "Much of the stimulus is yet to come, and let's see how this works before talking about next steps," senior adviser David Axelrod told NBC Television's Meet the Press program.
By Jeff Gerth and Brady Dennis
Monday, June 29, 2009
General Electric, the world's largest industrial company, has quietly become the biggest beneficiary of one of the government's key rescue programs for banks. At the same time, GE has avoided many of the restrictions facing other financial giants getting help from the government. The company did not initially qualify for the program, under which the government sought to unfreeze credit markets by guaranteeing debt sold by banking firms. But regulators soon loosened the eligibility requirements, in part because of behind-the-scenes appeals from GE.
As a result, GE has joined major banks collectively saving billions of dollars by raising money for their operations at lower interest rates. Public records show that GE Capital, the company's massive financing arm, has issued nearly a quarter of the $340 billion in debt backed by the program, which is known as the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, or TLGP. The government's actions have been "powerful and helpful" to the company, GE chief executive Jeffrey Immelt acknowledged in December.
Call them whatever you want, as long as you don't own them what's it matter! The real question is how many and how much. Remember when millions was considered a lot of money. Heck we skipped the billions and started on the trillions. Now the question is when do the local, state and federal governments start to raise taxes???
Once a commercial space has been converted into foodservice you really have few options as a landlord
Yes, four of the five new restaurants were restaurants that failed over the past 12-18 months.
The fifth was originally a bank but it may have done a round as a restaurant, too.
Still, if those restaurants failed in a better economy, I can't see their re-opening as a positive even if the costs are cheap. They're opening into a smaller cash flow than they failed in.
They have to adjust their rates and attitude. You can get very good quality escorts in most western countries for a fraction of the US prices (and attitudes).
Nobody in the business world has emerged unscathed from the financial carnage wreaked by the global recession. That includes those who ply their trade entirely legally - in the world's oldest profession. Nevada is famous for its licensed brothels, which originally catered for miners and cowboys working in the sun-scorched desert. Now a lure for lascivious tourists, they have suffered a plunge in earnings as men become parsimonious about their spending on sex.
In case you are wondering about what stupid 20-30 year old think... here is an interesting website.
While I agree with the basic gist of the blog (treat people as they treat you).. it attracts some weird people. Lot's of determinists.. fun to read though
I played some pool with a couple of guys.
One fellow was pretty good but I beat him right off.
Then he wanted to give me his "A" game for $5 bet.
He tried a one-bank breakout shot on the 6 & 14 balls on the rail but missed.
Then I executed the same shot with two banks.
I mean, it's a percentage thing, right?
I took a shot and got lucky, it's clearly a less than 50% shot.
But he got mad and quit.
Fairly unusual but it wasn't a "real player" bar, either.
I thought about it as I drove home.
If I had only one word to describe modern American culture...
"ENVY" would rank highly.
Perhaps "JEALOUSY".
A good portion of our economy is projecting image to others, inspiring envy in them.
Keeping up with the Jones syndrome.
That works upto early-industrial age economies. After that, you require even the poorest people to have a decent living standard. Otherwise the economy collapses.
Paradox of thrift..
//A good portion of our economy is projecting image to others, inspiring envy in them. Keeping up with the Jones syndrome.//
Another interesting blog... in my professional field. Author used to be much more of an industry cheerleader until it started screwing him around. There has been a huge wave of disenchantment in established scientist in pharma within the last 5 years (especially the last 2.5 years). Parallels our general disechnactment rather well.. Too many are awaking to the reality of the matrix. I saw this years ago.. in the late 90s to be precise.
Another interesting website.. especially useful for using memes to predict the future of pharma biotech companies. Just read the anonymous message boards, and you will see my point. Many decisions of any given company can be gleaned from both specific and general flow of comments. Who knows.. you might be even able to process comments to predict share prices in companies.
Sorry, i'm un-inspired tonight.
Thinking about my girlfriend, jobs, fruitloop enemies, guns, unpleasant choices and unpleasant outcomes.
I'm forced to believe that many of our fellow readers don't realize that the odds are high that "the economy" never "recovers", i.e. it stays permanently dsyfunctional within an ever-expanding sphere of influence. Well, until it goes BOOM! and keels over dead. Might take a decade or two if we're luck.y.
I honestly don't see how it ever gets fixed.
So... it's not really critical to be pontificating with religious adherence to absolute economics on a blog.
Like.... maybe y'all should relax a little?
Evolution occurs because previously usable routes are cut and newer routes start materializing. Evolution works because those that adapt survive and those that do not just die off.
The system won't be fixed because the PTB or J6P want to.. it will fix itself (though many won't like it's new direction). Think of the collapse of colonialism, slavery, old empires etc.. never happened through conscious decisions or goodwill... but it did. Same with the "new deal", ww1, stalin, ww2, hitler. post-ww2 world, rise of asia, IBM using open source hardware + OS in IBM PC.. etc.
Too many are awaking to the reality of the matrix.
I know cafepharma, I spent time on it about two years ago.
I was about thinking Michael Jackson in terms of the K-wave. Really, the 2003-2005 trial killed him. He took the 1993 accusation pretty well, it mostly bounced off but the second one killed him.
2003 was the bottom of the Dot Com Crash.
The point of maximum desperation after the point of maximum delusion.
The Dot Com crash was probably the peak of the K-wave cycle,
If so, it's also likely the inflection point for greed, too.
Maximum greed would tend to initiate money-related events like lawsuits.
And MU was baubling along, still afloat after the 2005 hit but the second crash last year drained his resources more, shut down his ability to borrow or the ability of friends to float him.
I think you can make a good case that Jackson is a casualty of the K-wave inflection point.
It cannot be "fixed".. it can only evolve. People will demand action when the current BS screws up THEIR lives. The french revolution occurred after many bad harvest years + financial bankruptcy + nobles/ church refusing to pay taxes.
//I'll rephrase - I don't see how the economy gets fixed in my lifetime.//
If I had to bet, I'd say the Future Crisis will come from the other direction.
Not from the public but from government & a tax revenue / funding crisis.
What happened to Michael Jackson has a tinge of evil.
My mom remarked, "He weighed 112 lbs and there was a doctor? Why did he let that happen? Why did the people around him let it happen?". In a broad sense, it's a scathing commentary about what our culture has "evolved" into.
I feel I have to say something although I have nothing really to say
I have been thinking today about the huge waste of money that the current bankster bailout has been - we could have solved global warming, cured cancer, ended poverty, and still had money left over. I guess I am feeling regret that so much was wasted on for so little. Life will go on, but the overriding feeling I have is disappointment.
You can't really cure cancer by printing money either.
Let's discuss clawback, ladies and gentlemen. Public banks that receive public guarantees or bailouts should be regulated at least to the degree of the water, power, and sewer utilities. This means public hearings about salaries, profits, rates, policies.
I haven't followed Michael Jackson's career, but I hope it remains extremely difficult to have a 50 year-old committed to any type of treatment.
Time after time, lunacy is declared on the impetus of an interested party, the ulterior motives becoming obvious only after the damage done. Some famous examples are Mary Lincoln, by her son for a fortune; Frances Farmer, by her showbiz mother in cahoots with the studio.
The coroner should look closely into any life insurance policies as a matter of course.
Jimi Hendrix is rumored to have been murdered by his manager because he was determined to leave him and stadium rock. In addition to the insurance, you can cash in on:
" The British music store chain HMV reported that sales of Jackson CDs had surged 80-fold in the first 24 hours after the pop star's death, a higher figure than, by comparison, the growth in sales after the deaths of Elvis Presley, John Lennon and Freddie Mercury.
Otherwise, Yerp futures all kermit, Stoxx50 up, US futures kermit, Asia mixed but heavy weightings down and S&P Asia 50 elmo, ASX down on ore signals from China.
Unremitting dullness. Here's hoping for some celeb coups or emerging market deaths to entertain.
Cancer is an interesting problem - I guess the question is will money solve the problem? I can say that we really have not tried. The NYT had an article yesterday where they mentioned that the total spend since Nixon declared war on cancer has only been around $100 billion. If we really want to solve this problem we need to put in real money, so much money that some of it spills over into radical ideas that might work, rather than just drip feed out the funding so that all the money ends up in safe but incremental research. Only then can we say we tried and failed. In the end heroic failure on something like this has got to be better than giving more money to the banksters.
I might support a 20% flat income tax, and 20% generation transfer tax, but no exceptions for priests- even those who can prove inherited title from Pharaoh- or Captain Morgan.
I definitely support increased taxes on luxury consumption, for the reasons put forth by Robert H. Frank (co-author of textbook with Ben B. and my econ adviser).
People should be allowed to store some wealth in a foreign bank for an emergency, no problem. But pay the 20%, and I don't really see the justification for anonymity. If all trading were recorded and traceable, the kidnappers will have a hard time spending your Swiss cheese.
If we really want to solve this problem(Cancer) we need to put in real money, so much money that some of it spills over into radical ideas that might work, rather than just drip feed out the funding so that all the money ends up in safe but incremental research. Only then can we say we tried and failed. In the end heroic failure on something like this has got to be better than giving more money to the banksters.
Just as much money would be wasted in the cancer research as it would the banks, if not moreso.
We don't have enough labs, we don't have enough researchers, we don't have enough computational power: it would lead to massive wage inflation and pricing assets dearly.
That's like trying to irrigate a garden with a firehose.
Dill, I was lucky to be able to make a large donation to skin cancer research at NYU in memory of my dermatologist father. They lost money with Madoff; I made a killing shorting financials. I told them they can use the money as they see fit, but I want their research made available to the public to the greatest extent possible, and I hope they learned their lesson with Madoff.
Any "public-private investment partnership" should be to cure tangible toxigens, not toxic paper. I agree this should be absurdly obvious. I only meant to point out that the TARP hundreds of billions didn't necessarily represent real wealth, only continuation of Ponzi finance, so it's not easy to know specifically what it might have bought.
You spend your entire medical career of 40 years with a team researching ways to surgically remove skin cancers with lasers, making several improvements to the technique.
A group in India discovers that every cancer removable by a laser can be more easily, safely, and cheaply treated with stem cell therapy, after only a few years of research.
Laser treatment is in fact banned by authorities as unnecessary.
No union or government can outdo an entrepreneurial man of vision, like Gates or Madoff.
No one could have produced a successful computer operating system without the profit motive. Oh, wait...
Are you sure that laser treatments are more expensive? Not that I would know (however, I did have part of my face stuffed into my nose to replace a basal(sp) cell cancer...), but it doesn't sound right.
So in that spirit I announce my sincere intention to soon endow a series of cash prizes for the greatest contribution to the development and implementation of an open-source digital currency, indexed to commonly traded tangibles, or other easily measurable stores of value, managed independently of any central bank.
"Open source" means no license fees, commissions, etc., for public use of the system, in perpetuity. Data entry and physical production of servers or chips should be paid labor, and funds should be set aside to handle fraud disputes, but no private profit can derive strictly from promoting or trading the currency or the system.
The system and all its data must be as public as possible, with privacy issues taken into account. It may not be used in any way to avoid local taxation, so there can be no restrictions on exchange with other currencies, but any fee for such exchange can only be used for maintenance of the system (as above), with obsolescence of all transaction costs the goal.
Of course, as a "free" system, no one can be forced to accept the currency as a medium of exchange. In fact, mass "ostracism" of proven cheaters, even governmental, is the main mechanism of fraud prevention. Details to follow.
Ever find out what that noise was last night? I thought it was thunder at first, then realized it had to be something else. It sounded sort of like fireworks, but I couldn't see any.
Man, just reading the headlines and listening to the radio this morning, it seems we have a full court press out this week to convince us the recession is over and we will return to growth next year. Does this mean there is some encouraging data on unemployment this week, and we are preparing for a super kermit bounce up, up, and away? Or are the numbers really bad and we are preparing for more talk of this jobless recovery crap? I don't know, but this short trading week is going to be fun to watch.
Yogi, this is what I deserve for trying to make markets, read, and type at the same time. Unfortunately I don't have to think while working, but I have to pay attention-sorta.
"Overall, governments may not have acted quickly enough to remove problem assets from the balance sheets of key banks," the BIS says in its annual report. "At the same time, government guarantees and asset insurance have exposed taxpayers to potentially large losses."
Governments planned a very deliberate sequence:
Pledge Taxpayer money while promising taxpayers profit.
Oops, realize losses to taxpayers. Hoocoodanode?
Realizing losses before taxpayer guarantees does not fit the plan.
The BIS is also guilty of the "remove problem assets" magic-wand step.
Reports: China loan spree goes to stocks, property Reports: China lending spree going to stocks, real estate; economists warn of bubbles
On Monday June 29, 2009, 7:17 am EDT
SHANGHAI (AP) -- China risks frittering away its stimulus spending on speculation in stocks and real estate, reports said Monday, citing economists who say surging bank loans risk inflating risky asset bubbles.
The comments by prominent economists came as Shanghai's benchmark Composite Index hit another high for the year, gaining 1.6 percent, or 47.10 points, to 2,975.31. The index has gained more than 60 percent since the beginning of the year.
While recent gains in shares and property prices are a welcome respite for investors, putting funds meant for stimulus projects into speculative investments could undermine the government's effort to boost growth and reduce the economy's heavy reliance on exports.
About 20 percent of bank lending is going into stock speculation, and another 30 percent or so is going into the property market, state-run newspapers cited Wei Jianing, an economist with a Cabinet-level think tank, as saying.
China's economic planners have urged banks to issue loans to support the government's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program, aimed at protecting the economy from the global slowdown by pumping money into spending on building airports and other public works.
Wei and other economists told a conference in Beijing that the huge flow of money into shares and property could be fueling risky, unsustainable price increases, China Business News and other reports said. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Coins dominated finance for 2,400 years, followed by currency for 150 years, and now finance is dominated by digital measures.
All 3 coexist currently as means of exchange, and throughout time all 3 have been counterfeited;
Coins: Difficult to pull off because most everything was made of silver & gold, no wonder it lasted so long.
Currency: Difficult to pull off because of the high cost of printing equipment & machinery. A lot easier than coins though, as paper has little tangible value.
Digital: Easy-peasy, just type a bunch of numbers and create money vis a vis the mouse clique.
There are no substantial costs involved in gaming the system digitally, and most importantly-unlike coins & currency...
Nobody can see the results of the counterfeiters work, the perfect crime (so far so good)
Yeah, that's why the digital currency system must paradoxically be public information, or at least be set up with as many failsafe procedures as possible. Who's guarding the FED?
Do you have good bot failsafe system for catching your attention errors?
Not really, I lost all I made in the previous month (or months) a couple of times, and my attention improved a lot. I do a lot of staring at orders before entering them. Some more expensive front end systems display prices based upon spreads which tell the trader if an order is off the market. Almost all systems have a failsafe but in many cases they aren't very good. Paying attention and concentrating works best for me.
No substitute for a human, as they just had to re-fucking-learn in DC Metro.
Once I tried to sell to open instead of to close, but I have limited margin and option clearance, thank glod.
The bots will crunch numbers all day without getting tired but they still can't beat a backgammon master and they only beat Kasparov with a team of human cheaters.
Actually, I empathize with John Henry. If I make a tighter market than a computer, the chances are that the computer will tighten the market even more. Computers are becoming more sophisticated every day which sometimes makes the market more efficient(but not always). Some programs hide their best bid. If you offer an order there, the computer will execute it.
Overall, tighter, more efficient markets are good for you, if your broker (or software) routes your order to the best price. Sometimes it doesn't.
Incidentally , most traders and brokerage firm executives will tell you that executing orders is a lot less profitable than in the past because market transparency results in more efficient markets. This is why the industry is fighting to prevent central clearing of CDO, CDS, etc. because price discovery offered by transparent markets means the end of large mark ups, and other associated nefariousness which produces high (often obscene) profits for the broker executing the order.
Nemo!
How can assets be toxic?
you mean ally?
BIS: Toxic assets are still toxic
dont you mean "legacy assets" CR
Sorry, CR, but got pigged
States Turning to Last Resorts in Budget Crisis
"All but four states must have new budgets in place less than two weeks from now — by July 1, the start of their fiscal year. But most are already predicting shortfalls as tax collections shrink, unemployment rises and the stock market remains in turmoil."
"In all, states will face a $121 billion budget gap in the coming fiscal year, according to a recent report by the National Conference of State Legislatures, compared with $102.4 billion for this fiscal year."
"As a result, governors have recommended increasing taxes and fees by some $24 billion for the coming fiscal year, the survey found. This is on top of more than $726 million they sought in new revenues this year."
STATES TURNING TO LAST RESORTS IN BUDGET CRISIS - NY Times
Beats 13.9 Trillion!
//"In all, states will face a $121 billion budget gap in the coming fiscal year, according to a recent report by the National Conference of State Legislatures, compared with $102.4 billion for this fiscal year."//
Well - this is the BIS saying there are still many "assets" listed on banks balance that are toxic. I think the headline is representative of their comments.
andiron, yeah ... Ally - I enjoyed the name change. As long as they pay their advertising bills!
best to all
it just keeps getting better and better.
Whats that saying about getting blood from a stone?
We are all permatoxics now.
C
I was catching up on Podcasts earlier tonight - an older This American Life - and one segment was on the workouts for underwater borrowers - that large banks are resisting, in very large part, because it will force an honest accounting on the amount of mark-to-fantasy toxic garbage still on the books. I suppose it's a little bit of a relief that PPIP is shrinking as a side effect...but yeah, we definitely should have pre-privatized and just cleared the market.
I think the stress tests showed that the U.S. should have pre-privatized BofA, Citigroup and GMAC. Oh well ... - CR
There's never enough time to do it right but always enough time to do it over. I hold out hope that the Hopium supply will run low and eventually Young Mr. President throws up his hands and says; "You know we tried doing it on the sly and we tried doing it through favoritism and we even tried doing it with Constitutional overreach. What say since everything else hasn't work that we try doing it right?"
Comrade Scott,
They can't handle the truth!
I think the stress tests showed that the U.S. should have pre-privatized BofA, Citigroup and GMAC. Oh well ...
I think Churchill would say it's too early to write those options off... seeing how Americans practice 'crisis management'.
dryfly - this doesn't matter one bit, but I just remembered, dau wasn't rejected from RPI but waitlisted. Same thing tho. Okay, sorry, just a little OCD here.
Hurrah, I'm here.
Fla raised ciggie taxes. I don't care.
They are talking about raising the millage in the counties, 'cause
that will get around the homestead exemptions. Actually the
amount quoted per tract doesn't sound so bad to me, and
it is unfair to landlords and renters and Commercial Property
to bear so much of the county expenses. Screams are already
starting to be heard.
We all can't handle the truth now.
~~~~
The truth is the easy part ...
the consequences will be the hard part ...
"Beats 13.9 Trillion!"
Right, but 57 trillion awaits
CR Just BAC, Citi and GMAX?
PiPP will never happen. Ever
Oh, Mmck, I forgot to say on the last thread, that at least
you lost the 200k for catz!!
The other day, Erin Burnett was trying to justify the increased salaries at Citi by saying it was needed to "protect" the government's investment, so we couldn't let C fail via brain drain. At some point, the government needs to realize that it'll never be repaid; the problem banks simply need to be put into run-out mode. Don't even bother removing the toxic assets from these banks. Capitalize a new bank instead.
She thought they had any brains to begin with?
Paging Pavel:
Pope: Scientific analysis done on St. Paul's bones
ROME -- The first-ever scientific test on what are believed to be the remains of the Apostle Paul "seems to confirm" that they do indeed belong to the Roman Catholic saint, Pope Benedict XVI said Sunday.
It was the second major discovery concerning St. Paul announced by the Vatican in as many days.
On Saturday, the Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano announced the June 19 discovery of a fresco inside another tomb depicting St. Paul, which Vatican officials said represented the oldest known icon of the apostle.
Benedict said archaeologists recently unearthed and opened the white marble sarcophagus located under the Basilica of St. Paul's Outside the Walls in Rome, which for some 2,000 years has been believed by the faithful to be the tomb of St. Paul.
I am just curious - how is it possible in principle to prove that somebody's remain belong to a figure who is only known through literary descriptions??
Outsider: Was your daughter also an undergrad there?
At least at another prominent engineering school: Waitlist = honorable mention, unless you went there in which case it means that you did something funny and they want more info.
I hope the PPIP never happens..horrible idea from the get go. It was such a naked giveaway - swapping bad assets among the banks, using government dollars to do it - that the cynical part of me figured it was a shoo-in.
I know they literally cannot handle it, and it's the message that's been beaten to death here for some time...it was just nice to hear it clearly explained in a less wonky media market (ok, is CR a media market?).
lawyerliz
"Oh, Mmck, I forgot to say on the last thread, that at least
you lost the 200k for catz!!"
~~~~~
I lost 200k to preserve my marriage ...
She looks through the comps in the newspaper every Sunday ....
And every Sunday she avoids the subject like the plague ...
And I made my bones in real estate ...
We don't talk much anymore on Sundays ...
Well, the bones can be proved to be approximately the right age.
But, why should we care? They are just bones.
And this is Paul, you know. I sorta regard him as the devil
in disguise. He rather ruined Christianity.
She wuz wrong. Forgive her.
"Some bankers were hesitant. "If these loans are bought at a discount, we create a hole in capital," Lou Akers, executive vice president of Adams National Bank in Washington, told FDIC officials on the March 26 call."
No S***
scary stories in 6 words.
1. the pension payouts created exigent circumstances
2. austerity measures underway in the UK.
3. Creditor (Plaintiff) vs Debtor (Defendant), Subpoena
4. Primary Dealers fear showing YTM hands
*seeing lotsa edits peoples.(misspelled you gotta go to court)
last one: a crowded fear trade blows up
Basel - "Erin Burnett was trying to justify the increased salaries at Citi by saying it was needed to "protect" the government's investment, so we couldn't let C fail via brain drain." Honestly? Has she moved to SNL?
A bit of preemptive brain drain might have been just what the doctor ordered in Citi's case, instead of pretending the gangrene was a few surface lesions.
C
I think the stress tests showed that the U.S. should have pre-privatized BofA, Citigroup and GMAC.
The governments has been at pains trying very hard to argue that it is impossible to take over a big bank: too complicated, no legal framework, bad for recovery (another Lehman), etc.
Stress tests were not designed to identify which banks should be nationalized. There was no Fail on those tests.
lawyerliz
"She wuz wrong. Forgive her."
~~~~
I have forgiven her ...
She just can't stand that I was right ...
and that it cost so much money ...
She's very competitive ... the wound will heal when home prices go back up ...
in a decade or so ...
I am just curious - how is it possible in principle to prove that somebody's remain belong to a figure who is only known through literary descriptions??
i used to support obama...now not so much
i never supported tarp either bush's 350 billion nor obama's 350 billion after that
so excuse me CR if i respectfully disagree about pre-privatization
the bankstas should have been allowed to fail...period
we have paid ransom to our rapists
i would have preferred the tarp money and all the rest of the fed window alphabet soup give away programs be directed to creating a "bank of the United States" which we could have broken up and privatized once the fiasco passed
the financial services industry which was 7% of gdp in the seventies and 15% of gdp in the eighties was approaching 40% of gdp just before the crash...a country that prides itself on shuffling papers that package securities and equities
we are nowhere near coming out of the woods on this little addventure
Nothing that executing the vocal 20% of doctors cannot fix.
//Right, but 57 trillion awaits//
BANKS can be nationalized in a weekend
Exhibit A: AIG
Exhibit B: Bear Sterns
Exhibit C: Wamu
Wasn't purple cloth reserved for Emperors? If so, why was Paul, if it
was Paul wearing it? Gold sequins. Somehow, it's not what a woulda
thought. . . Defying the emperors for reasons of faith is one thing, but
disobeying in the matter of clothing is something else.
that's where the faith part comes in.
Faith in DNA testing?
Credit Default Swaps? Mark-to-Model? Notional Money? Rational Actor? Free Market?
//I am just curious - how is it possible in principle to prove that somebody's remain belong to a figure who is only known through literary descriptions??//
nades,i DO NOT want to hear about blood from stones.
Is anyone in the MSM linking this social unrest in Honduras, Iran, or the escalation from NK to the financial meltdown we just experienced?
Mmm..I had the impression that pre-privatizing was CR snark for avoiding the boogeyman phrase "nationalizing". And, MT, that is letting the banksters fail..I'm sure WAMU's shareholders feel that way.
Credit Default Swaps? Mark-to-Model? Notional Money? Rational Actor? Free Market?
These examples can be (and some have been) falsified, at least eventually.
Ok, explain to me why digging up some bones is important in any way?
Even if you are a believer, and even if you admire Paul.
All human remains should get respect.
Gold sequins????
Erin has assets.. just not her brain.
//Erin Burnett was trying to justify the increased salaries at Citi by saying it was needed to "protect" the government's investment, so we couldn't let C fail via brain drain.//
lawyerliz -
She wuz wrong. Forgive her.
To err is human, to forgive is against battalion policy.
Is anyone in the MSM linking this social unrest in Honduras, Iran, or the escalation from NK to the financial meltdown we just experienced?
I think the MSM is busy with more important things like Michael Jackson death.
Tell that to the Fed and Treasury and all those who will be raptured by green shoots.
//These examples can be (and some have been) falsified, at least eventually.//
Michael Jackson is still dead, so far as I know.
Are the 3 days over?
//Michael Jackson is still dead, so far as I know.//
"I think the MSM is busy with more important things like Michael Jackson death."
~~~~~
Sure to be blamed for the next down leg ...
Bloomberg is saying slump in Japan is easing, dollar is set to soar this year, treasuries have seen the worst of their slump as demand soars. All that optimism from bloomberg makes me uneasy.
If he rises again, will he get his (nice) old nose back?
Honduras was just a power grab by the President that a few people just said no to, I'm surprised he is still alive, my how times have changed. Chavez, They come for you!
Iran, et al, yes I agree.
Rocky doncha know that all is well in this best of all possible worlds?
What does the "good book" say about that?
//If he rises again, will he get his (nice) old nose back?//
mmckinl -In the same boat- her punishment is she has to negotiate the mod;-}
Only been at it two and a half months- I would guess another three or four is necessary for success.
She still pulls the "it was even bigger than you predicted"!
Not, but hey, marriage is marriage.
Someday this war's gonna end...
so excuse me CR if i respectfully disagree about pre-privatization
the bankstas should have been allowed to fail...period
Pre-privatization is takeover and orderly wind-down, with equity shareholders getting wiped out and debt holders getting converted into equity.
It is actually pretty simple and straightforward. Moreover, lawyers and academics spent decades finessing banks' capital structure - which class of investors goes after which in taking losses if the bank fails.
Only very intelligent people like Summers can make this straightforward process look like an impossibly difficult task
post of the day ...
lawyerliz
"If he rises again, will he get his (nice) old nose back?"
"Nothing that executing the vocal 20% of doctors cannot fix"
It's not the doctors that stand in the way; it's the undead insurance/medicine lawyers
I am just curious - how is it possible in principle to prove that somebody's remain belong to a figure who is only known through literary descriptions??
Maybe they found Peter's wallet in the tomb?
Thanks, Mmck.
I think the stress tests showed that the U.S. should have pre-privatized BofA, Citigroup and GMAC. Oh well ...
If it's any comfort, no amount of manuevering can turn vacuous promises into truth.
A house built atop a mountain of lies is always doomed.
It should be whether the doom falls justly or unjustly that is the cause of regret.
It seems to me that we already have much to regret.
We have to start from somewhere..
//It's not the doctors that stand in the way; it's the undead insurance/medicine lawyers//
Maybe they found Peter's wallet in the tomb?
What was in his wallet?
Sure to be blamed for the next down leg ...
Must... respect... the... dead... no.. smartass... comment...
Capital One!!
His chariot license!!
(MJ's death)Sure to be blamed for the next down leg ...
How much for a Pauline gold sequin?
- don't be so sure. Sales of re-issues and memorabilia might just be what we need to pull us out of this slump.
Ticket refunds are gonna hurt some companies
Billy Mays didnt make it either... 50 YO....
I'm sorry, I am snarking offensively.
But the thought of Paul wearing gold sequins. . . . .
Errr, maybe we know know why he didn't like women.
I just can't stop myself.
Rumor was MJ owed 400 million ...
He gets the last laugh ...
Rumor was MJ owed 400 million ...
The copyrights are for life + 70 years so his estate is going to be really happy.
Somebody posted something yesterday, (or maybe npr?) that his pharmacy
was suing him for 100k.
100k in "legal" drugs???
Ticket refunds are gonna hurt some companies
Imagine the ripple effect of that one.
Surprised?
//Errr, maybe we know know why he didn't like women.//
LL,
I took the weekend off. Just getting back up to speed on the news... errrr, propaganda. It would appear that all is right as rain.
Anecdote: progress on our new mall and attached strip center in town is progressing nicely. Traffic at the big boxes looks brisk. Traffic in general is up around town and I'm getting a lot of "we are looking for a person to hire for xyz position" in my inbox (note: most of these positions are entry-level or require experience but don't pay well - the new norm I guess). Local UPS driver tells me that traffic is up after a major slump. Small business CEOs are reporting "significant warming" in both realized sales and sales pipelines.
OTOH: we took a Sunday drive up to OK. Not many trucks on the road.
-rr
@Liz - are you a recovering Catholic?
I tell you what, my first visit to Rome, which included an audience with JP-II (the 1st Mrs. Comrade was a rather devout convert), was a real eye-opener...especially the visit to the cell...roadside America's got nothing on the Italians!
Edit: cell == Mammertine Prison
@Comrade Scott - I'm sure South of the Border would welcome your suggestions.
C
Rumor was MJ owed 400 million ...
Sir Paul McCartney will probably pay a good chunk of that to get the Beatle's catalog back.
Yep, Scott, gee, how could you tell.
The cell?
"It also expresses concern about the dilemma facing policymakers on when to start reining in the recovery.
....damn....did I miss the recovery?
....Now everyone needs THREE shots for this flu virus? Not this old man.(Bloomingberg Science art)
.....also, there sure are a lot of 50-year olds dyin'...........
100k in "legal" drugs???
Try getting anything that medicine has decided is expensive (try an inflammatory arthritis eg) and 100K is not hard.
Is that the one they dropped the biggies into, prior to strangling?
I missed it.
@C - Hah! I was laughing at the earlier commentary on SOB...I remember stopping there as a child for fireworks on pilgrammages to Jax Beach. Then the WaPo had an article on BB's childhood in Dillon, and the guy who's underwater right now in the old Bernanke manse...sooo much...synchronicity? I dunno.
comrad scott
mr m
you make good points about pre privatization...but
i suspect my anger over the fraud finds me wanting to see some villains stretched on the rack
and corporations dissolved
so converting debt to equity and orderly write downs are not working for me anymore
plus, too many that orchestrated this theft are in line for bonuses and continue to game the system
Once again cheers to Billy Mays, without Ozyclean I would be scrubbing the heck out of my carboys and pots right now, instead I'm tipping a
and reading this.
Glad I've passed that dangerous age.
"Overall, governments may not have acted quickly enough to remove problem assets from the balance sheets of key banks," the BIS says in its annual report. "At the same time, government guarantees and asset insurance have exposed taxpayers to potentially large losses."
Scylla and Charybdis
Mock Turtle- Any relevant anecdotes from the cross country/round trip of our nation? Sorry for the loss of faith in the new administration. That truth was bitter for me as well.
Why isn't Byzantine Ruins posting? Did I miss a farewell from him/her?
lawyerliz -
100k in "legal" drugs???
Now we know why medicare and medicaid are in the tubes.
so converting debt to equity and orderly write downs are not working for me anymore
Public executions?
What are you suggesting to do with depositors?
Getting tired. Nitey-nite all.
@Liz - yes, the Mammertine is where they had their last stop...and the spring sprung up in the cell, a sign that converted a Roman guard.
@MT - well, I'm a happy socialist partisan, but I'm just not that vengeful anymore...I just want to make sure they pay, and being wiped out is good enough for me. Kenny Boy Lay's hari-kari (?) was pretty satisfying for me, even if it meant his wife was somewhat protected from some clawbacks.
....Now everyone needs THREE shots for this flu virus? Not this old man.(Bloomingberg Science art)
Only the young need three shots, last I heard adults only need two.
.....also, there sure are a lot of 50-year olds dyin'...........
potentially large losses.
Scylla and Charybdis
So they did not want to use the word HUMUNGUS? How about FRIGGING HUGE. And just how do they define potentially?
OK, time to chill and keep cleaning up the mess I just made.
Well, gang, tomorrow is another day in the salt mines...and three glasses of Merlot is more than enough for me these days...Nitey-nite!
Sooo, what's Asia doing in light of the relentless positivity... Not much, except wait and see. Nikki's barely cleared throat, Taiex and Hang Seng have opted for a charming elmo outfit, Yen slipping against USD which is pushing the commode currencies down, AUD hovering just above 80c threshold.
But maybe they're doing something constructive like figuring out what recent PBoC signals mean.
C
externalized costs, you ask, do i have anecdotes...you bet!
the retail space in a suburb of dc, woodbridge va appeared to have more than doubled since i was there 7 years ago
real estate prices in georgetwon and dupont circle neighborhoods of dc have been unaffected by the crisis im told by a reliable and knowledgeable friend
i drove from greenwich conn to armonk ny and saw more mansions (palaces) in one place than id ever seen before, anywhere, and did not detect signs of economic pain in either fairfield county nor westchester county...very ritzy places even after the fall
Didn't we invent a Superfund a some decades ago to cleanup toxic wastes? All parties involved (plus the Feds) had to contribute according to the (respon)abilities, I thought.
What say since everything else hasn't work that we try doing it right?"
Dawg == closet optimist
My legacy liabilities are toxic. I need a Term Liability Loan Fund program to buy my legacy liabilities, non-recourse of course.
Ticket refunds are gonna hurt some companies
More legacy assets for PPIP to buy... just in time to save the program.
Toxic Assets? Where are those economists who say losing 8 of 10 million and gaining 2 million are the same? Can't we get them to put a positive spin on this? Oh wait, they are trying.
....."also, there sure are a lot of 50-year olds dyin'"........... ...."you say that like it's a bad thing". ........
......I think the Good Lord might be keeping me busy for some unknown reason, but I sure do still get nervous when people younger than me "check-out" unintentionally. Just last Sunday I bought the Mrs a newer car from an old aquaintence - that night he died in his sleep. Outside of him being a drunk and a heavy pot-smoker, he surely didn't figure he'd die sittin in his BarcoLounger that night watching some horseshit show! Go figure.
It also expresses concern about the dilemma facing policymakers on when to start reining in the recovery.
I'm with BSR on this one... they seem to be getting way ahead of themselves by talking about any recovery.
It's been some time since i checked but I believe that 50% of men are dead by age 65.
It's good to plan for it.
Dawg == closet optimist
I hear optimists will make excellent fertilizer for the green shoots next year. Problem is they aren't dead yet. Well nearly dead they'll be stone dead in a moment.
Why are we so afraid of losing money? Instead of looking at the trillions in losses, we should be happy at the buck fifty we keep.
Dream time, good night all
he surely didn't figure he'd die sittin in his BarcoLounger that night watching some horseshit show!
sdtfs - because it's our preciousssss...
C
Aren't you discounting the steer manure that they're spewing now?
Optimists will make excellent fertilizer for the green shoots next year
Yes. I wrote it last night but... I still can not believe that FIVE new restaurants are opening at a one intersection in downtown Boise, even as business seems to be down 10-20% in other places. Somebody's gonna get a whupping next year.
...well, I could say "I'd love to sit and talk all night long", but I'd be lyin'....the Mrs made two loaves of zucchinni bread today and I'm fixin' to eat one of them before the 16-year old horse gets home from church and devours the other one. Hasta........
It drives me crazy that they are worried about a "dysfunctional" financial system, and imply that removing bad assets from balance sheets more aggressively will restore functionality. Personally, I think a system that rewards reckless lending, rewards speculation, rewards institutions that make bad loans, and rewards individuals that take on bad loans is as dysfunctional as it gets. I'll be surprised if credit still exists if we continue on this path to financial "recovery". Managed bankruptcy or preprivatization would actually address some of the dysfunction.
I still can not believe that FIVE new restaurants are opening at a one intersection
They didn't open them cash on the barrelhead. I wonder who lent them the money.
79% of U.S. men and 87% of women born in 2005 will live to age 65.
Actuarial Life Table
preemptive brain drain
We metal filings are in your crankcase, changing the oil is a very good thing (filter too!)
I wonder who lent them the money.
That's a really good question.
Three of them had "opening soon" signs.
Perhaps those are wishful thinking on loan approvals.
79% of U.S. men and 87% of women born in 2005 will live to age 65
I don't care about 2005.
What's the number for 1958?
And none of this "current lifespan until..." stuff.
Total deaths at 65 / total births.
"I wonder who lent them the money."
~~~~~
The people that lent the money to the previous owners ...
or it's all gone ...
There's a significant increase in mortality rate for US men 50-60 versus 40-50...don't have a link ready to hand. The rate goes up for 60-70, and then 70-80 as you'd expect.
Okay, I take it back.
It looks like about 65% make it to 65 for peak baby boomers.
Life Expectancy
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 8:19 pm
I wonder who lent them the money.
That's a really good question.
Three of them had "opening soon" signs.
Perhaps those are wishful thinking on loan approvals.
Recently RIFd banksters just making sure there won't be clawbacks.
No no no, it IS about fifty percent.
Look at the projected life expectancy for 1960.
66.8 years.
Yup, that's pretty much what you should shoot for to be safe.
There 's a huge drag on the economy that nobody is talking about, and it's the real difficulty many people, especially the elderly, are having living on a fixed income. The interest rates on CDs and money market funds are just horrendous. Thanks, Ben!
If you are a retired couple with $500,000 and Social Security, and you are putting it in one-year CDs, your income has been cut by about 30-40% over the past two years and you have slipped below the poverty line.
There's two sides to low interest rates, one for borrowers (good if you have credit) and another that's bad for all savers.
The worst part of it is, some retired people are chasing higher yields into long-term bonds, and they'll soon regret it.
At times lately, I wonder why I'm working so hard to figure out where to invest.
But in this climate, if you can earn 10% on your money in 2009, it's worth the effort.
The greatest increases in U.S. longevity lately have been for men over age 50. Nobody knows why.
Whatever age you are now, it's ridiculous to base your projected life expectancy on 1960 mortality tables. You should always look at the current tables for your age. For example, if you are a 50 year old male today, your life expectancy is another 28.5 years.
it's ridiculous to base your projected life expectancy on 1960 mortality tables
Disagree.
I think it's important to include a big margin of error because the odd are good that you won't be able to do at 60 what you could do at 45. Quantity != Quality. If I live another 28.5 years (and it's not all sucky like the past five) then I'll be satisfied.
28.5 more years.
Sigh.
I have to start doing more sky-diving to make up for it.
If I live another 28.5 years (and it's not all sucky like the past five) then I'll be satisfied.
More pool, less work.
68.5 years?
"I want more life, fucker." -- Roy Batty
I wonder what would happen if they factored chronic malnutrition and rampant crime into the mortality spreadsheet.
If you're not watching the Hispanic news for some reason, there has been a military coup in Honduras.
What makes it potentially de-stabilizing the the Western Hemisphere is that it opens the door for Hugo Chavez to go into Honduras with his growing army and try to put a Socialist in power. Of course, Obama would be drawn into that one.
Not good for the U.S.
You should always look at the current tables for your age.
Before I started reading CR, I fit the profile of someone who would live to be one hundred. Now the aggravation probably knocks me down to eighty.
Somewhere, in Bank ER:
"Doctor! We've located the source of the problem - it appears to be gangrene"
"Hmm, gangrene shoots?"
"No sir, systemic."
"Well, that's usually difficult. Not impossible, m'boy. Why in my day... Whatever, we'll have to start with the affected limbs"
"But sir, that would be all of them"
"A functioning trunk is more than adequate, the limbs will at least cauterize".
"But sir, it's through most of the organs too".
"Never cared much for organs, compete with the choir. Sorry, presbyterian grandmother y'know".
"So, are you saying sir, that it's the last resort? At the neck? But that's never been tried before!?"
"Breakthroughs are made by breaking through, obviously. Steady the vict... uh, patient. Scalpel! Blowtorch! There. Readings, gentlemen?"
"The operation was perfect, strictly according to procedure, every angle covered, but he, uh, appears to have gone".
"Whaaat? After everything we did? A ruthless default indeed. Prepare the next one..."
nytol
C
Those estimates are also based on the credit upcycle.
Check out Russian longevity stats after 1989.
They shrank substantially after their big crash.
rich,
WTF is Hugo going to do?
Swim?
No easy way to Tegucigalpa from Hugoland.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Re: Life Expectancy
Look at a mortality curve as a time series and I bet the knee of the curve would still be at 80 or so no mater the increase in expectancy. Around 80 the cliff diving starts.
broward,
The russians drank themselves to death- it wasn't malnutrition, unless you count vodka poisoning.
They should have raised the taxes on the vodka and told folks to work harder for more money- Carrots always work well.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Broward didn't remark on malnutrition, I did though not in relation to the russians.
rich,
Reasonable points you make. I'm just saying that given the population bulge in the 44-64 range there's going to be an increase in mortality relative to the total population.
Tom Waits - Dirt In The Ground
OT:
WSJ Tarp Tracker
Bailout Tracker - TARP Program
WTF is Hugo going to do?
He could assemble a Coalition of the Willing,...doesn't that worry you?
Thanks for the observations MT.
New restaurants are cheap to open IF you are opening using the previous failed restaurants capital investment. The lease holder will almost always forgive the remainder of a failed lease when you sign over the kitchen/bar equipment and sundry other items. Easy and relatively cheap if you are an established restaurateur to invest $50,000 and have a new restaurant ready to roll in a couple of months. Once a commercial space has been converted into foodservice you really have few options as a landlord in what you can do with it.
Caveat: If a location has seen more than three previous failed attempts as a restaurant then no matter the price your jiffy new concept will fail. Location, location, location holds especially true for restaurants.
RE: WSJ Tarp Tracker...
I guess I wasn't paying attention, but the label "Systemically Significant Failing Institution" (e.g. AIG @ $70B) makes me want to:
1) Laugh
2) Cry
3) Throw Up
4) ... all of the above
They did choose gay pride weekend to announce his burial duds.
Will he become the patron saint of cross-dressers?
Just checking in after a few days of no sleep. Lots of morbidity tonight, so allow me to turn it around 180 degrees for a minute. I've been a proud father for 5 days now. He's a seriously cute kid, tall and strapping, healthy and everything. I never imagined being a father would feel so good!
Nope.. After 80 the death rate starts dropping..
//Look at a mortality curve as a time series and I bet the knee of the curve would still be at 80 or so no mater the increase in expectancy. Around 80 the cliff diving starts.//
broward,
Mean life expectancy for those who reach 65 is over 19 years in the US.. more in other countries
"I've been a proud father for 5 days now."
CONGRATULATIONS, CHICAGO DUDE!
Let's say, just for the sake of discussion, China's economy implodes.
Good luck with that loan mod ...
A Plan to Stem Foreclosures, Buried in a Paper Avalanche - NY Times
Ok, lets say China's economy implodes.
Uhh, their gov't spending goes through the roof?
They cash in their T-bonds?
No wait, their T-notes?
Anyone awake?
If so, what happened 1.5 hours ago that caused Nikkei and US futures to cliff dive?
"I never imagined being a father would feel so good! " - Chicago Dude
Congratulations! You have lots of good times ahead of you. Remember them well, they will pass too quickly.
Fatherhood has been very enjoyable for me as well. Our second son is now 3 months old.
Nikkei ... to cliff dive
huh? link please
mp - were you getting at something? or just pondering China?
Nikkei down 160 (1.6%) in one hour.
OK, so it's a small cliff.
WSJ shows Nikkei up 0.3%
Yahoo finance shows it down 1.2%. (Was up 0.3% a couple of hours ago.)
BTW, good NYT link on loan mod issues.
IMO, there's never an explanation for market moves.
Nonetheless, Google news for "Japan", last hour, gives following stories
Japan Stocks Fall on Daiwa, Mizuho Share Sale; Papermakers Gain - Bloomberg.com
UPDATE 3-Japan industrial output rebounds, outlook cloudy
| Reuters
Japans auto production falls
Are they related to the market drop? Maybe. Who knows?
mp, I've been wondering about that myself. I assume that they would revert back to a command/state owned economy and string up the capitalists/bankers as scape goats. I would expect that all foreign ownership would be bought out with dollar/treasury surplus, if we're lucky. The recent rumors of commodity hoarding could be an attempt to store value/resources ahead of turbulent times. The chain of dominoes is so large, and the feedback loops so intertwined, that it makes me want to order a pallet of freeze dried food.
There are times when I think that the last decade or so have actually been WWIII. It's just that we got so focused on the absolute military nature of the last two (and a half if you want to count the cold war), that we've completely missed that this is a banking war. Our private bankers against the PBoC.
On a side note, after reading John Perkins "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" I came to the conclusion that at one time our bankers thought that they had set up a system that used debt to put the rest of the globe in a soft feudal bondage for our greater good, in a paternalistic sort of way. It would seem that somewhere along the way that the concept of noblesse oblige was lost and they turned on us too. The two Bush presidents would be good examples of the generational decay in action.
I just hope that chaos wouldn't lead to war as it tends to do. Demographically speaking, losing 20M men would be a good thing for them given their gender imbalance. Scary.
i havent posted in a while, but earlier there was talk of truck traffic, or the lack thereof. I wanted to add a anecdotal. here's a pic of a backup with lots of loads. its I-44 eastbound from tulsa toward St. louis. Friday afternoon: the traffic is pretty thick with big rigs. see a couple FedEx ones
http://www.tulsaworld.com/articleimages/2009/20090627_Web0627crash2.jpg
butter - good pic. It's ALL trucks in the picture. Maybe the cars got diverted to side roads, where big rigs aren't allowed?
Then you'd be left with all trucks.
In which case, it'd be hard to conclude anything.
squid-true. Hadn't thought of that, but they reported the backup to be 14 miles. its a turnpike with few exits. its also damn busy everytime i'm on it. those rigs will pass me goin 80.
I thought we were calling these things "legacy assets"?
I never imagined being a father would feel so good!
Congratulations! Now I'll expect to see you around on the late shift as you try to blog with one hand and the baby in the other, trying to give mom a sleep break.
Obama Could Mull 2nd US Stimulus If Needed: Adviser
Obama Could Mull 2nd US Stimulus If Needed: Adviser - Politics and Government * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
By: Reuters | 29 Jun 2009 | 01:59 AM ET
President Barack Obama could discuss a second stimulus package to boost the economy if needed, but at the moment no more new money looks necessary, a top White House adviser said on Sunday. "Much of the stimulus is yet to come, and let's see how this works before talking about next steps," senior adviser David Axelrod told NBC Television's Meet the Press program.
Accidental or Intentional Loophole?
How a Loophole Benefits GE in Bank Rescue: Industrial Giant Becomes Top Recipient in Debt-Guarantee Program
Loophole Helps GE Benefit From Bank Rescue Program - washingtonpost.com
By Jeff Gerth and Brady Dennis
Monday, June 29, 2009
General Electric, the world's largest industrial company, has quietly become the biggest beneficiary of one of the government's key rescue programs for banks. At the same time, GE has avoided many of the restrictions facing other financial giants getting help from the government. The company did not initially qualify for the program, under which the government sought to unfreeze credit markets by guaranteeing debt sold by banking firms. But regulators soon loosened the eligibility requirements, in part because of behind-the-scenes appeals from GE.
As a result, GE has joined major banks collectively saving billions of dollars by raising money for their operations at lower interest rates. Public records show that GE Capital, the company's massive financing arm, has issued nearly a quarter of the $340 billion in debt backed by the program, which is known as the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, or TLGP. The government's actions have been "powerful and helpful" to the company, GE chief executive Jeffrey Immelt acknowledged in December.
Call them whatever you want, as long as you don't own them what's it matter! The real question is how many and how much. Remember when millions was considered a lot of money. Heck we skipped the billions and started on the trillions. Now the question is when do the local, state and federal governments start to raise taxes???
Who is gonna be able to pay them?
Now the question is when do the local, state and federal governments start to raise taxes???
Once a commercial space has been converted into foodservice you really have few options as a landlord
Yes, four of the five new restaurants were restaurants that failed over the past 12-18 months.
The fifth was originally a bank but it may have done a round as a restaurant, too.
Still, if those restaurants failed in a better economy, I can't see their re-opening as a positive even if the costs are cheap. They're opening into a smaller cash flow than they failed in.
Hmm GE was bailed out , wonder if there are any other company's we don't know about getting the funny money?
Q: What's scarier than a banker with a deposit?
A: A banker with two shotguns! Ho!
Depressed banker missing 'with two shotguns'
They have to adjust their rates and attitude. You can get very good quality escorts in most western countries for a fraction of the US prices (and attitudes).
Sex feels the credit squeeze in Nevada: Takings and customers have slumped at the state's licensed brothels, the only businesses in America lobbying to pay more tax, writes Andrew Clark
Sex feels the credit squeeze in Nevada |
Business |
The Observer
Nobody in the business world has emerged unscathed from the financial carnage wreaked by the global recession. That includes those who ply their trade entirely legally - in the world's oldest profession. Nevada is famous for its licensed brothels, which originally catered for miners and cowboys working in the sun-scorched desert. Now a lure for lascivious tourists, they have suffered a plunge in earnings as men become parsimonious about their spending on sex.
broward,
In case you are wondering about what stupid 20-30 year old think... here is an interesting website.
While I agree with the basic gist of the blog (treat people as they treat you).. it attracts some weird people. Lot's of determinists.. fun to read though
Roissy in DC
wow, thanks, Lucifer, that's surprisingly interesting.
The guy must have a huge following.
I played some pool with a couple of guys.
One fellow was pretty good but I beat him right off.
Then he wanted to give me his "A" game for $5 bet.
He tried a one-bank breakout shot on the 6 & 14 balls on the rail but missed.
Then I executed the same shot with two banks.
I mean, it's a percentage thing, right?
I took a shot and got lucky, it's clearly a less than 50% shot.
But he got mad and quit.
Fairly unusual but it wasn't a "real player" bar, either.
I thought about it as I drove home.
If I had only one word to describe modern American culture...
"ENVY" would rank highly.
Perhaps "JEALOUSY".
A good portion of our economy is projecting image to others, inspiring envy in them.
Keeping up with the Jones syndrome.
He has a few rabid followers. Most just watch the brawls.
The most interesting idiots like to justify everything with "evolutionary psychology" (speculative psychology).
//The guy must have a huge following.//
That works upto early-industrial age economies. After that, you require even the poorest people to have a decent living standard. Otherwise the economy collapses.
Paradox of thrift..
//A good portion of our economy is projecting image to others, inspiring envy in them. Keeping up with the Jones syndrome.//
broward,
Another interesting blog... in my professional field. Author used to be much more of an industry cheerleader until it started screwing him around. There has been a huge wave of disenchantment in established scientist in pharma within the last 5 years (especially the last 2.5 years). Parallels our general disechnactment rather well.. Too many are awaking to the reality of the matrix. I saw this years ago.. in the late 90s to be precise.
In the Pipeline:
Another interesting website.. especially useful for using memes to predict the future of pharma biotech companies. Just read the anonymous message boards, and you will see my point. Many decisions of any given company can be gleaned from both specific and general flow of comments. Who knows.. you might be even able to process comments to predict share prices in companies.
cafepharma
Paradox of thrift..
That's a good headliner description.
Sorry, i'm un-inspired tonight.
Thinking about my girlfriend, jobs, fruitloop enemies, guns, unpleasant choices and unpleasant outcomes.
I'm forced to believe that many of our fellow readers don't realize that the odds are high that "the economy" never "recovers", i.e. it stays permanently dsyfunctional within an ever-expanding sphere of influence. Well, until it goes BOOM! and keels over dead. Might take a decade or two if we're luck.y.
I honestly don't see how it ever gets fixed.
So... it's not really critical to be pontificating with religious adherence to absolute economics on a blog.
Like.... maybe y'all should relax a little?
Oh, well.
Evolution occurs because previously usable routes are cut and newer routes start materializing. Evolution works because those that adapt survive and those that do not just die off.
The system won't be fixed because the PTB or J6P want to.. it will fix itself (though many won't like it's new direction). Think of the collapse of colonialism, slavery, old empires etc.. never happened through conscious decisions or goodwill... but it did. Same with the "new deal", ww1, stalin, ww2, hitler. post-ww2 world, rise of asia, IBM using open source hardware + OS in IBM PC.. etc.
//I honestly don't see how it ever gets fixed.//
Too many are awaking to the reality of the matrix.
I know cafepharma, I spent time on it about two years ago.
I was about thinking Michael Jackson in terms of the K-wave. Really, the 2003-2005 trial killed him. He took the 1993 accusation pretty well, it mostly bounced off but the second one killed him.
2003 was the bottom of the Dot Com Crash.
The point of maximum desperation after the point of maximum delusion.
The Dot Com crash was probably the peak of the K-wave cycle,
If so, it's also likely the inflection point for greed, too.
Maximum greed would tend to initiate money-related events like lawsuits.
And MU was baubling along, still afloat after the 2005 hit but the second crash last year drained his resources more, shut down his ability to borrow or the ability of friends to float him.
I think you can make a good case that Jackson is a casualty of the K-wave inflection point.
2003-2007 was pure insanity!
//The Dot Com crash was probably the peak of the K-wave cycle, If so, it's also likely the inflection point for greed, the point of maximum greed.//
All the drones who believed in the system, houses, pensions, benefits etc are gonna have a similar shock
//I think you can make a good case that Jackson is a casualty of the K-wave inflection point.//
I'll rephrase - I don't see how the economy gets fixed in my lifetime.
It cannot be "fixed".. it can only evolve. People will demand action when the current BS screws up THEIR lives. The french revolution occurred after many bad harvest years + financial bankruptcy + nobles/ church refusing to pay taxes.
//I'll rephrase - I don't see how the economy gets fixed in my lifetime.//
If I had to bet, I'd say the Future Crisis will come from the other direction.
Not from the public but from government & a tax revenue / funding crisis.
What happened to Michael Jackson has a tinge of evil.
My mom remarked, "He weighed 112 lbs and there was a doctor? Why did he let that happen? Why did the people around him let it happen?". In a broad sense, it's a scathing commentary about what our culture has "evolved" into.
I'm going to bed.
Later, hater.
"How can assets be toxic?"
You still refuse to see the emperor's beautiful suit, eh?
For the same reason consumption is considered part of gross national production. The more you burn the wealthier you must be.
Dupe!
Broward
I feel I have to say something although I have nothing really to say
I have been thinking today about the huge waste of money that the current bankster bailout has been - we could have solved global warming, cured cancer, ended poverty, and still had money left over. I guess I am feeling regret that so much was wasted on for so little. Life will go on, but the overriding feeling I have is disappointment.
Good morngg Marynmm. Wez my java.
Japan down was Daiwa and Minzuho srcewups. Had been brewing since the open.
Why does a watched pot never boil?
C
You can't really cure cancer by printing money either.
Let's discuss clawback, ladies and gentlemen. Public banks that receive public guarantees or bailouts should be regulated at least to the degree of the water, power, and sewer utilities. This means public hearings about salaries, profits, rates, policies.
yogi - minor steps towards potential maybe kinda transparency, on the Swiss front:
- Bloomberg.com
Wonder where Phil Gramm has his accounts?
C
I haven't followed Michael Jackson's career, but I hope it remains extremely difficult to have a 50 year-old committed to any type of treatment.
Time after time, lunacy is declared on the impetus of an interested party, the ulterior motives becoming obvious only after the damage done. Some famous examples are Mary Lincoln, by her son for a fortune; Frances Farmer, by her showbiz mother in cahoots with the studio.
The coroner should look closely into any life insurance policies as a matter of course.
Jimi Hendrix is rumored to have been murdered by his manager because he was determined to leave him and stadium rock. In addition to the insurance, you can cash in on:
" The British music store chain HMV reported that sales of Jackson CDs had surged 80-fold in the first 24 hours after the pop star's death, a higher figure than, by comparison, the growth in sales after the deaths of Elvis Presley, John Lennon and Freddie Mercury.
"...the BIS's assessment will carry weight with governments."
the Guardian has a way with the obvious, what with the BIS being the ultimate bank, the CB's CB and all that.
But to what end and for what reason?
So whatever happened to trustbusting? The concentration risk at the top of the food chain is now enormous. TBTF to the nth:
JPMorgan Tightens Grip on Equity Sales by Selling Own Shares - Bloomberg.com
Otherwise, Yerp futures all kermit, Stoxx50 up, US futures kermit, Asia mixed but heavy weightings down and S&P Asia 50 elmo, ASX down on ore signals from China.
Unremitting dullness. Here's hoping for some celeb coups or emerging market deaths to entertain.
C
trustbusting is soooo last century
Yogi
Cancer is an interesting problem - I guess the question is will money solve the problem? I can say that we really have not tried. The NYT had an article yesterday where they mentioned that the total spend since Nixon declared war on cancer has only been around $100 billion. If we really want to solve this problem we need to put in real money, so much money that some of it spills over into radical ideas that might work, rather than just drip feed out the funding so that all the money ends up in safe but incremental research. Only then can we say we tried and failed. In the end heroic failure on something like this has got to be better than giving more money to the banksters.
volker - or maybe a couple back? The rail thing had an 18-handle.
Those canal dreamers should have hung on.
C
I might support a 20% flat income tax, and 20% generation transfer tax, but no exceptions for priests- even those who can prove inherited title from Pharaoh- or Captain Morgan.
I definitely support increased taxes on luxury consumption, for the reasons put forth by Robert H. Frank (co-author of textbook with Ben B. and my econ adviser).
People should be allowed to store some wealth in a foreign bank for an emergency, no problem. But pay the 20%, and I don't really see the justification for anonymity. If all trading were recorded and traceable, the kidnappers will have a hard time spending your Swiss cheese.
C: wha?
Monday Morning Links: R.I.P. PPIP (Sayonara Mothafu**kas)
Monday Morning Bailout Links: R.I.P. PPIP (Sayonara Mothafu**kas) - Home - The Daily Bail - The Bailout News Central Depository. News, Interviews,Videos, Comedy, Songs, Opinion & Analysis
Hunter S. Thompson edition
The Political & Financial Cartoons Of Steve Breen: Winner 2009 Pulitzer Prize (Slideshow) The Political & Financial Cartoons Of Steve Breen: Winner 2009 Pulitzer Prize (Slideshow) - Home - The Daily Bail - The Bailout News Central Depository. News, Interviews,Videos, Comedy, Songs, O
volker - the great canal vs rail race. Rail boys won.
C
(PS so who is the Hunter Thompson of financial journalism?)
r u confusing me for someone else?
If we really want to solve this problem(Cancer) we need to put in real money, so much money that some of it spills over into radical ideas that might work, rather than just drip feed out the funding so that all the money ends up in safe but incremental research. Only then can we say we tried and failed. In the end heroic failure on something like this has got to be better than giving more money to the banksters.
Just as much money would be wasted in the cancer research as it would the banks, if not moreso.
We don't have enough labs, we don't have enough researchers, we don't have enough computational power: it would lead to massive wage inflation and pricing assets dearly.
That's like trying to irrigate a garden with a firehose.
Dill, I was lucky to be able to make a large donation to skin cancer research at NYU in memory of my dermatologist father. They lost money with Madoff; I made a killing shorting financials. I told them they can use the money as they see fit, but I want their research made available to the public to the greatest extent possible, and I hope they learned their lesson with Madoff.
Any "public-private investment partnership" should be to cure tangible toxigens, not toxic paper. I agree this should be absurdly obvious. I only meant to point out that the TARP hundreds of billions didn't necessarily represent real wealth, only continuation of Ponzi finance, so it's not easy to know specifically what it might have bought.
OK pop quiz: (Assume these facts)
You spend your entire medical career of 40 years with a team researching ways to surgically remove skin cancers with lasers, making several improvements to the technique.
A group in India discovers that every cancer removable by a laser can be more easily, safely, and cheaply treated with stem cell therapy, after only a few years of research.
Laser treatment is in fact banned by authorities as unnecessary.
What is your reaction?
"Over-qualified", "over-educated", and "over-sold" are over-used terms.
This man knew how to put money to productive use:
Fordlândia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
No union or government can outdo an entrepreneurial man of vision, like Gates or Madoff.
No one could have produced a successful computer operating system without the profit motive. Oh, wait...
how is it possible in principle to prove that somebody's remain belong to a figure who is only known through literary descriptions??
Perhaps they've identified the genetic marker for misogyny?
Yogi,
Are you sure that laser treatments are more expensive? Not that I would know (however, I did have part of my face stuffed into my nose to replace a basal(sp) cell cancer...), but it doesn't sound right.
So in that spirit I announce my sincere intention to soon endow a series of cash prizes for the greatest contribution to the development and implementation of an open-source digital currency, indexed to commonly traded tangibles, or other easily measurable stores of value, managed independently of any central bank.
"Open source" means no license fees, commissions, etc., for public use of the system, in perpetuity. Data entry and physical production of servers or chips should be paid labor, and funds should be set aside to handle fraud disputes, but no private profit can derive strictly from promoting or trading the currency or the system.
The system and all its data must be as public as possible, with privacy issues taken into account. It may not be used in any way to avoid local taxation, so there can be no restrictions on exchange with other currencies, but any fee for such exchange can only be used for maintenance of the system (as above), with obsolescence of all transaction costs the goal.
Of course, as a "free" system, no one can be forced to accept the currency as a medium of exchange. In fact, mass "ostracism" of proven cheaters, even governmental, is the main mechanism of fraud prevention. Details to follow.
Walt unfortunately it's a completely fictional hypothetical, just a philosophical query. How would you feel as the laser doc?
Counterpointer -
Ever find out what that noise was last night? I thought it was thunder at first, then realized it had to be something else. It sounded sort of like fireworks, but I couldn't see any.
Man, just reading the headlines and listening to the radio this morning, it seems we have a full court press out this week to convince us the recession is over and we will return to growth next year. Does this mean there is some encouraging data on unemployment this week, and we are preparing for a super kermit bounce up, up, and away? Or are the numbers really bad and we are preparing for more talk of this jobless recovery crap? I don't know, but this short trading week is going to be fun to watch.
Ticking down.... supposed to close on my house sale @ 11 today..... yay renting!
Yogi, this is what I deserve for trying to make markets, read, and type at the same time. Unfortunately I don't have to think while working, but I have to pay attention-sorta.
There is some some discussion above about allocating capital to cure cancer, so I threw out the hypo.
"Overall, governments may not have acted quickly enough to remove problem assets from the balance sheets of key banks," the BIS says in its annual report. "At the same time, government guarantees and asset insurance have exposed taxpayers to potentially large losses."
Governments planned a very deliberate sequence:
Realizing losses before taxpayer guarantees does not fit the plan.
The BIS is also guilty of the "remove problem assets" magic-wand step.
Do you have good bot failsafe system for catching your attention errors?
Making a market sounds like 8-digit business.
Shocked, shocked I tell you to learn...
Reports: China loan spree goes to stocks, property
Reports: China lending spree going to stocks, real estate; economists warn of bubbles
On Monday June 29, 2009, 7:17 am EDT
SHANGHAI (AP) -- China risks frittering away its stimulus spending on speculation in stocks and real estate, reports said Monday, citing economists who say surging bank loans risk inflating risky asset bubbles.
The comments by prominent economists came as Shanghai's benchmark Composite Index hit another high for the year, gaining 1.6 percent, or 47.10 points, to 2,975.31. The index has gained more than 60 percent since the beginning of the year.
While recent gains in shares and property prices are a welcome respite for investors, putting funds meant for stimulus projects into speculative investments could undermine the government's effort to boost growth and reduce the economy's heavy reliance on exports.
About 20 percent of bank lending is going into stock speculation, and another 30 percent or so is going into the property market, state-run newspapers cited Wei Jianing, an economist with a Cabinet-level think tank, as saying.
China's economic planners have urged banks to issue loans to support the government's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program, aimed at protecting the economy from the global slowdown by pumping money into spending on building airports and other public works.
Wei and other economists told a conference in Beijing that the huge flow of money into shares and property could be fueling risky, unsustainable price increases, China Business News and other reports said.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Actually, Lucifer nailed it. Anything toxic can not be an asset, except by accounting fraud.
Although I was wondering the other day whether cancers have any productive biological function, and I DO NOT mean population control.
Coins dominated finance for 2,400 years, followed by currency for 150 years, and now finance is dominated by digital measures.
All 3 coexist currently as means of exchange, and throughout time all 3 have been counterfeited;
Coins: Difficult to pull off because most everything was made of silver & gold, no wonder it lasted so long.
Currency: Difficult to pull off because of the high cost of printing equipment & machinery. A lot easier than coins though, as paper has little tangible value.
Digital: Easy-peasy, just type a bunch of numbers and create money vis a vis the mouse clique.
There are no substantial costs involved in gaming the system digitally, and most importantly-unlike coins & currency...
Nobody can see the results of the counterfeiters work, the perfect crime (so far so good)
Yeah, that's why the digital currency system must paradoxically be public information, or at least be set up with as many failsafe procedures as possible. Who's guarding the FED?
Do you have good bot failsafe system for catching your attention errors?
Not really, I lost all I made in the previous month (or months) a couple of times, and my attention improved a lot. I do a lot of staring at orders before entering them. Some more expensive front end systems display prices based upon spreads which tell the trader if an order is off the market. Almost all systems have a failsafe but in many cases they aren't very good. Paying attention and concentrating works best for me.
No substitute for a human, as they just had to re-fucking-learn in DC Metro.
Once I tried to sell to open instead of to close, but I have limited margin and option clearance, thank glod.
The bots will crunch numbers all day without getting tired but they still can't beat a backgammon master and they only beat Kasparov with a team of human cheaters.
Actually, I empathize with John Henry. If I make a tighter market than a computer, the chances are that the computer will tighten the market even more. Computers are becoming more sophisticated every day which sometimes makes the market more efficient(but not always). Some programs hide their best bid. If you offer an order there, the computer will execute it.
Overall, tighter, more efficient markets are good for you, if your broker (or software) routes your order to the best price. Sometimes it doesn't.
Incidentally , most traders and brokerage firm executives will tell you that executing orders is a lot less profitable than in the past because market transparency results in more efficient markets. This is why the industry is fighting to prevent central clearing of CDO, CDS, etc. because price discovery offered by transparent markets means the end of large mark ups, and other associated nefariousness which produces high (often obscene) profits for the broker executing the order.