Comrade Scott, I'm trying to get people to stay on economic and finance topics during business hours (high signal-to-noise) and try for a little more relaxed atmosphere in the evenings and on weekends. If you think it is fun trying to police the comments - and receiving frequent complaints - you have a different idea of fun than me.
does this qualify as behavioral economics blogging?
Picking back up on the last thread, I am not surprised either that the Mises institute is in Alabama - an original Caveat Emptor/Right-to-Work kind of place - nor that they would try to argue that nothing in behavior economics suggests that we ought to have any governmental regulation, even if their old arguments about utilitarian rational actors are discredited. I guess you probably already know all this, since you're in the business of manufacturing demand!
Um, ooh...now I am guilty of whining to the teacher. I thought it was a great cartoon.
I understood what you were after - I was trying to be gracious to Broward. No, it's not my idea of fun...I get to field complaints about sites I host for 650+ users.
I'm in a hole and digging, so I'm just gonna stop now.
CR, you and kcoop should pick some regulars and distribute the load on policing the comments. As the site grows its going to be more and more burdensome
Thanks CR. I have been reading this blog for a long time but never commented...
Just wanted to say right on! The cartoon about the GED clerk is the story of my life. I was a homeless teenage mom, I used to sleep in a car and eat out of dumpsters. After working hard and saving a few bucks for a downpayment, I lived in a trailer for 5 years (California) and got a GED and a job as a clerk. In 2001 I sold the trailer for a 30K profit, which I used for a downpayment on a house while working my way up to middle mgmt. In 2006 I sold at the top, moved to a rental, and doubled that funny money speculating against housing and banks. Also got my 401k into cash in 2006.
I am on top of the world now, unlike some of my friends who are buried under college debt, credit card debt, underwater mortgage debt, and don't have the practical skills to get a real job. I lived my own personal great depression growing up and learned the right skills to survive. I'm *ing ready to be unemployed, so bring it on. All those spoilt brats out there who thought they were so much smarter and better than people like me just because they had access to credit (or mommy and daddy's bank account) are going to learn a harsh lesson.
I don't know too much about that, but my plan is to downsize as much as possible. With super low overhead I am now able to live on about 25K a year, and I think if I cut out frivolous things I might do even better than that. My advice is to figure out what you like to eat, and stock up now. Also, consider taking up a practical hobby so you will have something to do with all your free time when you are out of a job.
re: the dilbert cartoon, prices in Los Altos, where I want to buy, are still 1.5X what they were in 2001. A lot of cash has rolled over Silicon Valley since then, and there ain't no more land or subdividing to do so it is something of a Fortress. Plus interest rates were high then and are pretty low now.
We just came back from a week at the "Aryan Nation-Disney Community" AKA Seabrook Island SC. That is a seriously strange place.
My guess is their beach rental is around 60%. A lot of empty island homes not generating the monthly payment for the owners. I checked the messages at our place. The previous guest was turned down on a $1000 VISA cash advance and they recomended the debt reduction plan for them.
The slips at the marinas we were at were at 70% occupancy. A lot of dead billboards and businesses along I-95. South of the Border was partially closed and dead.
Soccer is not a sport that was popular in the US until recent years. Soccer is really a poor country sport- all you need is a ball and nothing else but an open space.
Very different musculature than in football, baseball, etc.
Just look at the upper vs. lower bodies on a Rinaldhino, Beckett, etc. When you're going to be running around a soccer field for 90 minutes, it's counterproductive to lug around a highly-developed upper body
Dilbert will remain popular while it continues to parallel the rank ineptness of corporate management at the executive level.
I have sat through an executive presentation where the presenter actually paralleled a dilbert spoof. That clown lasted almost 2 years and cost the company over a million $ to pay off his contract. Despite ineptness the clown went straight into a new exec position at a colleagues company. Unbelievable.. ineptness is the path to success.
I like that place. It is so not pre-packaged, disney, sterile. Its just shines with pre-70's American lameness - the billboards for a 100 miles are really awesome also.
At South of the Border you are only a 100 yards away from a side road where banjo playing sodomists are watching the 700 club and hoping you break down nearby
I just came back from the gym where I was listening to Christina Romer talking about "Growth Without Bubbles".
Here is her argument as to when the economy is going to recover in a reasonably near term and then get back to normal growth and without asset bubbles - pretty much in the following order of priorities
1. Hope
2. American optimism
3. American ingenuity
4. Recovery of the financial sector
5. Obama's economic team, which has learned from the mistakes of the 1930s
6. Systemic macro-prudential regulator
7. Healthcare reform
8. Renewable energy and education components of the stimulus plan
Boy, am I feeling reassured!
The reaction of the audience was quite telling - academics were squarely on Romer's side and private capital was doubtful and pessimistic
(Good game, Team USA! As for Brazil, it was their typical - you try to score as many you can, we will score as many as we want)
Edward Hugh, who writes interesting posts, explains why he thinks the European stimulus plan failed, or in his words "shot it's bolt." Interesting for comparison to the effect the O-Team plan will actually have.
...More worryingly, the rate of contraction in Germany's private sector accelerated slightly this month, with flash estimate of the Markit composite PMI falling to 43.4 from the seven-month high of 44.0 in May.The flash estimate for the manufacturing PMI index rose to 40.5 from 39.6 in May, but the flash services PMI reading fell to 44.3 from 45.2 last month. And in the manufacturing sector the ratio of new orders to stocks of finished goods fell back to 1.12 after rising to 1.18 in May. Which effectively means inventories started to rise again.
I drove I-95 from DC to SC and back. I noticed that there were hardly any trucks from the major trucking companies. It was all independents hauling trailors that once belonged to someone else. Most had the previous owners logos painted over. I am not sure what this means. My guess is only spot loads are moving now.
Los altos safe due to lack of subdividing and lots of funny money
My aunt lives on Bale Lane just north of St. Helena. She's not rich just lucky to buy her 1 acre lot back when it was only 20k
The lots around there cannot be subdivided and from the looks of some of the newer homes there is some serious money around there that is impervious to the downturn. A lot of second homes in the millions.
But that hasn't stopped prices from plummeting recently, especially land.
How can it be that these banks are not just swimming in cash. Borrow at 0% and loan at 5-8% is just like printing money.
Could the green shoots be in trouble. Unemployment still out of control and unfortunately we do not have anything that even resembles a jobs plan from our wonderful leaders. Bailouts, tarp, health plans but no jobs.
We need jobs, jobs, jobs and I know I sound like a broken record but that should be priority one. Washington's not getting it. Now things are sliding downhill, and no one in the Congress has any stomach to pass another stimulus bill. It would take 25% unemployment (on the record 25%) for the public to be willing to take on any more debt. So we are stuck.
"Unemployment still out of control and unfortunately we do not have anything that even resembles a jobs plan from our wonderful leaders."
What sort of a jobs plan would you suggest? The current jobs plan seem to be to expand the government. How do you encourage job creation to achieve productive employment rather than make-work?
......have you ever noticed that things are talked about, hashed out, and over-chewed here, then AFTERWHICH, TPTB then comes to a totally different conclusion to the dismay of all (here), and then usually to a "I told ya so" playing out.
CR......send a memo to the uppity-ups in DC......for a small fee, they may use CR as a verbal think tank sounding board for any future dumbass suggestions, ideas, or procedures for improving our well-greased economy.
"for a small fee, they may use CR as a verbal think tank sounding board for any future dumbass suggestions, ideas, or procedures for improving our well-greased economy."
CR's comment section could become the "Bureau of Unintended Consequences Analysis".
"Part of the film Forces of Nature was filmed at South of the Border. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, originally from nearby Dillon, South Carolina, worked for a summer as a poncho-wearing waiter at South of the Border to help pay his way through Harvard.[2]"
How can it be that these banks are not just swimming in cash. Borrow at 0% and loan at 5-8% is just like printing money.
Banks are being reasonable (and selfish) by not lending freely in a recession.
So, yes, they are making good money on the spread, but they are not printing the money
Could you add acknowledging my power to that list? Best to cover all the bases for this prayer.
//I just came back from the gym where I was listening to Christina Romer talking about "Growth Without Bubbles".
Here is her argument as to when the economy is going to recover in a reasonably near term and then get back to normal growth and without asset bubbles - pretty much in the following order of priorities//
Eat at Wafflehouses! They still have a smoking section that is usually full. Plus, where else in America, outside of a prison, will you get served by a young man with an SS tattoo and the word PRIDE.
//CR......send a memo to the uppity-ups in DC......for a small fee, they may use CR as a verbal think tank sounding board for any future dumbass suggestions, ideas, or procedures for improving our well-greased economy//
Waffle House - It used to be very comforting to have my very own waitress also make the meat, hashbrowns, eggs, and toast, and still find time to refill your coffee, and take care of just HER other customers. I especially liked the proximity of the grill to the fork.
In a futuristic world, a strict regime has eliminated war by suppressing emotions: books, art and music are strictly forbidden and feeling is a crime punishable by death. Cleric John Preston (Bale) is a top ranking government agent responsible for destroying those who resist the rules. Whe he misses a dose of Prozium, a mind-altering drug that hinders emotion, Preston, who has been trained to enforce the strict laws of the new regime, suddenly becomes the only person capable of overthrowing it.
Really really good post at the oil drum about the economic effects of being at peek oil. As oil production rose, so did economic output. As oil production falls so too will economic output unless new sources of energy are developed. And points out the danger that our fearless lords of money don't really get that we're transitioning into a new regime. (ergo their attempts to fix the economy will fail)
Money Quote: Unlike money, Btus can’t be printed out of thin air.
i used to horseback ride on Seabrook, and yes, it could be described as white wankers with money. of course, the same could probably be said of Isle of Palms, Sullivans, Kiawah, and of course, Hilton Head...
Does that mean he will not make any more commercials?
Billy Mays, star pitchman, dead at 50: The booming bearded TV hawker behind products such as Oxiclean and Mighty Putty has died.
By Vivian Kuo CNN
Last Updated: June 28, 2009: 4:09 PM ET
(CNN) -- Billy Mays, the man with the booming voice famous for fronting products such as Oxiclean and Orange Glo in TV commercials, has died.
Tampa police say Mays' wife Deborah found him unresponsive at his Tampa-area home Sunday morning. Tampa Fire Rescue pronounced him deceased at 7:45 a.m.
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s economy probably shrank at the fastest pace on record in the first quarter as exports slumped and consumers slowed purchases of cars and domestic appliances.
Gross domestic product slumped an annual 11.9 percent, the biggest drop since the government started reporting quarterly data in 1987, after a 6.2 percent drop in the previous three months, according to the median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The statistics office will release the figures in Ankara at 10 a.m. tomorrow.
naw, but a global credit crash exacerbated by horrible demographics and worse policy decisions put at least a few years on the clock.
IF shale translates to $2/btu natgas, AND we really implement private sedans/coupes/pickups into natgas in a few major markets, then we may have dodged that bullet for a generation or two.
BEIJING -- China's central bank reiterated its call for the creation of a new international currency that could replace currencies such as the dollar in countries' official reserves.
In its annual report on financial stability, issued Friday, the People's Bank of China said the country will push reform of the international currency system to make it more diversified and reasonable. While it didn't specifically target the U.S. currency, it said it aims to reduce over-reliance on the current reserve currencies, of which the dollar is the biggest."To avoid the shortcomings of sovereign credit currencies acting as reserve currencies, we need to create an... international reserve currency that can maintain the long-term stability of its value," the PBOC said.
The report, a lengthy document that addressed a broad range of issues, reiterated a proposal made by PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan in March to use Special Drawing Rights, the synthetic currency developed by the IMF, as a super-sovereign reserve currency. That proposal, made just before the G20 summit in London earlier this year, appeared in an essay authored by Mr. Zhou and posted on the PBOC's Web site.
Kahuna,
I usually can do a full batch of all grain (10 gallons after boil) in about 6 hours.
This is everything: mash, boil. chilling and clean up.
What batch size are you making and how long is it taking you?
Unless they know what they are doing! We could easily start the construction of 100 large coal and nuclear plants + reprocessing plants + real infrastructure right now. But we have enviros, EPA and all the BSers
//Productive jobs do not come from a government "jobs plan".//
Speaking of Billy Mays and other celebrities, who had misfortune to die around death of another, bigger celebrity, which deprived them of the last burst of public affection:
From New York magazine The Eclipsed Celebrity Death Club Poor Farrah Fawcett. A month ago, People magazine's Larry Hackett admitted to the Times that she only had one remaining chance for some friendly press:
"At this point, Farrah has to die," he said. "It's the only cover left for her." Needless to say, she's missed her chance. Having vanished from the headlines after Michael Jackson's sudden demise, Farrah is just the latest to join a peculiar group: the Eclipsed Celebrity Death Club.
The classic ECD example is Groucho Marx, who passed away the same week as Elvis Presley, and thus missed out on a good week's worth of TV tributes. But the easiest way for a famous person to vanish from the earth without so much as a blip is to follow a president of the United States. Ray Charles caught barely a moment's coverage when he died in 2004, right in the middle of the weeklong blanket coverage of Ronald Reagan's death and funeral. Same story for James Brown, who got some press but definitely ran second to Gerald Ford.
President Obama gets an opportunity to show genuine foreign-policy leadership Monday when he meets with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. Between them will sit the unratified Colombia-U.S. free trade agreement. The U.S. failure to get this deal done is a long-running travesty, but that now offers Mr. Obama a chance to show how adept he is at international politics.
The free-trade issue has become complicated by another urgent matter: Will Colombia grant a U.S. request to use the Palanquero military installation north of Bogotá as a U.S. air base, or "cooperative security location"? Mr. Uribe is still asking for ratification of the trade deal (FTA) negotiated in good faith and signed more than 30 months ago. Beyond this display of patience, America's most important South American partner has gone to great lenths to satisfy Democrats who've made charges of violence against labor leaders in the country. The undisputable fact is that under Mr. Uribe's leadership Colombians are safer than they have been in years.
"We will stop burning oil because we have better sources of energy.."
familiar with cuba? we have quite a few gasoline-burning cars on the planet, enough to be a in a similar state for at least a century. if the economy keeps crumbling, that may well be the outcome. converting to different energy sources requires investment. do you see the political will or resources for that at this time? how about in ten years, when boomers are REALLY draining the coffers?
HomeGnome
I do 5 gallon batches, and it usually takes me around 4.5 to 5 hours.
I'm stuck with doing indoors brewing and my stove can not handle more than 7 gallons boiling. The biggest incentive I have to get a single family home is to BBQ and brew outside.
Kahuna,
Get yourself a 100,000 Btu propane burner and let 'er rip!
Did the indoor brew for about a year before I got mine.
Including one boil over that just trashed my stove!
Cheers!
the last thing the chinese want is a run on the dollar
That assumes the main objective for the Chinese is to maximize the value of their FX reserves or, being a bit more generous, their short term economic growth.
However, they might have other objectives, like economic dominance in the world and military dominance in the region, which might outweigh short-term losses caused by dollar decline.
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Yes, two Great Depressions linked in a mysterious time-warp: Bank robbers and robber banks. Back in the dark days of the first Great Depression John Dillinger was admired, a dapper Robin Hood. Banks were the real villains.
Dillinger, Bonnie and Clyde, "Pretty Boy" Floyd, and "Machine Gun" Kelly were the "American Idols" of their day -- "Public Enemies" to the FBI. But folk heroes to an angry public who cheered when Dillinger destroyed bank records during holdups.
Yes, good ol' John cared for the little guy, our "stand-in," a secret way of getting back at the crooks running America's banks. Imagine him storming into a bank in a three-piece suit sporting a Tommy gun. In broad daylight! A real man. He leaps over a counter confronting a scared teller, gently taps a stack of bills with his gun barrel: "That's your money, mister?" He nods. "We're here for the bank's money, not yours. Put it away."
How much is the US spending on "defense" every year; officially?
500 Billion?
Plus, off budget/ black ops stuff.
If I were the Chinese and could wack my rival for a Trillion or even two T; I'd definitely consider it.
ocrenter had an interesting question over at JtR's BubbleInfo. Specifically, what percentage of homeowners that sold during the height of the bubble (04 to 06) went to cash and rented? ocrenter is obviously curious about "cash on the housing sidelines".
If you were to explore the question, I would suggest breaking down the disposition of bubble-era sellers into categories:
1) Sold and repurchased (locally)
2) Sold and repurchased (remotely, i.e., out of state)
3) Sold and rented
4) Other (e.g., sold under extreme financial hardship, moved into care facility, died, etc.)
Might be hard to separate out the extreme financial hardship from sold & rented, but their potential for future homeownership would be worlds apart of course.
it was obvious that in 2002 the dollar was toast and that the financial system was massively overleveraged. Doug Noland started his column in september '00.
HomeGnome is right; China's collection of T's serves multiple purposes, and one could easily be the ultimate economic weapon. Much safer to kill us with an economic nuke than a real one. It's not like the world would say anything other than "the US had it coming".
the PRC has only one objective - maintain stability and maintain party power. a collapse in the currency of their #1 or 2 market which has been, more or less, the informal anchor to their own currency for at least a decade doesn't help that. there's a sentimental attachment to formosa, but that's a very, very distant second in concern relative to the above.
HomeGnome is right; China's collection of T's serves multiple purposes, and one could easily be the ultimate economic weapon. Much safer to kill us with an economic nuke than a real one. It's not like the world would say anything other than "the US had it coming".
Which is why SAFE & PBoC will continue buying Ts... until they don't.
How much is the US spending on "defense" every year; officially?
500 Billion?
Plus, off budget/ black ops stuff.
If I were the Chinese and could wack my rival for a Trillion or even two T; I'd definitely consider it.
Given that money is fungible, every dollar lent to the US by foreigners is a dollar the US did not have to save itself to fund its military
From International Herald Tribune But even in a country that strongly discourages criticism of its economic policies, hints of dissatisfaction are appearing over China's foreign investments.
For instance, a Chinese blogger complained last month, "It is as if China has made a gift to the United States Navy of 200 brand new aircraft carriers."
Bankers estimate that $1 trillion of China's total foreign exchange reserves of $1.8 trillion are in American securities. With aircraft carriers costing up to $5 billion apiece, $1 trillion would, in theory, buy 200 of them.
By buying U.S. bonds, the Chinese government has been investing a large chunk of the country's savings in assets earning just 3 percent annually in dollars. And those low returns turn into real declines of about 10 percent a year after factoring in inflation and the yuan's appreciation against the dollar.
Or the Chinese could have cut a deal with the Red and Blue Neo-CONs along these lines:
We'll keep buying your worthless paper if you'll send your guys to die for something we really want: OIL.
Damn, tore my foil hat again...
Although, would be kinda nice to have been at Darth Cheney's secret energy meetings...
From the WSJ article:
"The central bank's report, on the PBOC Web site, comes a day after Li Lianzhong, an academic at a key think tank under the Communist Party of China, said China's yuan should become the fifth currency in the SDR, joining the U.S. dollar, yen, euro and sterling. Mr. Li proposed an equal 20% weighting in the SDR basket for the five currencies."
Why would anyone give the sterling equal weighting with the dollar, yen, and euro? Maybe things are better than I've read in the UK.
I am surprised they did not include any commodities in their recommended basket for the SDR. I am a stupid monkey that way, trading my bits of green paper for bits of yellow and white metal.
Good people at Simon &Schuster will kindly pay Mr. Cheney with $2 Million as a compensation for any inconvenience caused by reminding him is not running this country any more.
Former presidential candidate John Edwards is out of luck if he hoped that the extramarital affairs of Gov. Mark Sanford and Sen. John Ensign would take people’s minds off his own cheating scandal. Former Edwards aide Andrew Young says the ex-senator and his former mistress, Rielle Hunter, once made a sex tape, according to someone who has seen Young’s book proposal.
Appropos of nothing - could this country become a world leader in undeveloping? Get really good at returning places like Seabrook or Kiawah to their undisturbed, pre-development state?
TJ and The Bear, I can't think of a good source for that type of data. The answer in 2004 and 2005 is very few homeowners sold and moved to renting - because the number of renters was declining and the number of homeowners rising. I think that started to change in 2006.
someone emailed me that Andrew Young story about Edwards. Some of the stuff that Young mentions is absolutely nauseating (and I'm not even referring to the sex stuff). but of course, Young is literally selling his book.
Plugged in my current rent vs. buying my condo at current price and (very generously) assuming 0% appreciation. Essentially breaking even after 5 years.
i did, entered no appreciation. hilarity ensued. nicer parts of coastal CA still need to drop 30% before this requires more than a second of bitter laughter. make that 50% if the rental market stays as weak as it is now.
About 73.4 percent of the Las Vegas-area houses and condos that resold in May were foreclosure resales, meaning those homes had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months.
The region’s all-home median sale price has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 25 consecutive months and in May stood 56.7 percent below the region’s peak $312,000 overall median in November 2006.
The median price paid for resale single-family detached houses – by far the region’s largest home-type category – is one of the best gauges of overall price trends. That median fell slightly, to $140,000 in May from $142,000 in April, and was 40.9 percent lower than a year ago. It was the lowest for any month since it was also $140,000 in February 2001, and stood 55.2 percent below its $312,250 peak in June 2006.
Another gauge analysts watch has also fallen sharply from its peak: The median paid per square foot for resale detached houses fell to $77 in May, down 1.3 percent from April and down 36.9 percent from a year ago. It was 59.5 percent below the $190 peak reached in June 2006.
I think we could significantly heighten the social acceptability of walkaways if we simply drop "ruthless default" in favor of "efficient breach" in all discussion. Immediately recasts every deadbeat homedebtor into a savvy businessperson.
barfly -
So how does the math of median income of 65K and median housing is around 720K look?
Would you think even Greenspan would say that was a bubble?
Oh, wait Hawaii is different, and it will be different this time, and it can't happen here. Anyone got some spare hopium?
thanks, bar. actually, the second is even more interesting, i've been curious about hard $s for japan RE for the past month. i'd love to see an income overlay graph on that.
"Homes in Tokyo lost 80 percent of their value and are still on the downward slide to this day. "
no reason that can't be LA or NYC...
CA is already back at 300K, btw - that article caught the top perfectly
they peaked musically long before they peaked commercially (like many entertainers)
I saw that tour - a friend of mine was working at the UN in NYC - gave me a heads up after he saw them there so caught them when they showed up at my local college auditorium... held only about 5000. Very good acoustics. Outstanding concert.
I wasn't always plugged in though... Missed Bob Marley when he came through town & played the same venue. I am still pissed I missed that one... sat outside and listed 'vicariously'. Damn.
No ruthless defaults for you then, Kahuna. They sound like the thin end of the wedge. Gateway, even.
I can already hear the grim tales on daytime teevee. "It didn't seem like much, just a house, value had tanked and the bank was totally douchey about the whole thing, so I defaulted. Yes, it was only going to be once... swear to glod. But soon enough it was another and another, and I had to get away to New York., y'now, rent for a while I was head of rate hedging at an IB. Was I putting myself in harm's way? Maybe. Anyhow, it just didn't seem right, putting shareholder divvie at risk like that. And then the Treasury... oh man, I never wanted that job, but I knew a guy in college who said I'd be great - knew the trade, didn't pay tax, long experience, spoke to some people. So, yeah, took the job, right up next to the biggest temptation. Yeah, I fell, bigtime. That was my rock bottom, I had finally done it. I defaulted on sovereign debt".
So, a couple of folks have asserted that the rental market is declining, I'm curious what the numbers are to bear this out - obviously rents themselves are dropping, but what are the numbers behind this? Has anyone compiled numbers on the net gain in rental stock from owner-occupied vacancies? Presumably a lot of people are trying to ride it out by renting houses they can't sell - certainly that's true in my neck of the woods. At the same time, it seems like the recently dispossessed would need to rent...though I assume many are contracting households.
picosec - I'll have to endure the embarrassment for eternity.
If that is your worst mistake your golden compared to me. I'm here to learn and I have no problems with looking stupid, just hopefully people will not realize I really am.
Same here. Somehow I missed U2 at Red Rocks back when I was a 19 and hitting concerts left & right in Denver. Argh!!!
Ouch.
I remember the first time I heard U2 on the local college radio station... circa 1981-1982 in IOWA where I worked midnight shifts as a young chemical engineer [we could listen to whatever we wanted to on night shift - not so during the day when the suits were around]. I believe it was the album 'Boy'... told my wife & best friend they were going to be BIG. I was laughed at ridiculously.
"Seems the new musicians rely on lights and pyrotechnics and gimmicks rather than any sort of talent."
the music business doesn't exist in any form that it was in as recently as 10 years ago, especially the recording part of it.
U2, springsteen, prince, pink floyd - all had bad-selling debut albums and would have been dumped by their labels if they were starting in the past 15 years.
Re: the Duke of Con Dao dust-up a few threads back - I usually love reading his comments, but does he occasionally remind anyone else here of Commander McBragg?
Anecdotally speaking... the rental market around the SFV is a wreck. I've not seen it so soft since moving to SoCal over 20 years ago. Rental signs everywhere, and in places I've never seen them before, plus some places offering deals that never had offered them previously.
U2, springsteen, prince, pink floyd - all had bad-selling debut albums and would have been dumped by their labels if they were starting in the past 15 years.
Yup but some of them became 'cult classics'... thinking of "Greetings From Asbury Park"... I had one of the early copies [bought it from a friend who worked at a 'head shop']. Again - I was laughed at when I thought that was 'the best'. By 'Born In The USA' I had tired Springsteen. YMMV.
Am I really first?
bing, bang, boom
USA scores first!!
I find it encouraging that Dilbert is so popular.
@ Citizen
Are you talking football?
@CR - Ok, so much for defending the call for on-topic. "Promiscuity and a G.E.D. was a good career move after all!". Broward, I yield, you win.
The only game that matters- USA has scored on Brazil- more action in front of the B goal!
Fascinating.
US states budget crisis sets stage for new attack on the working class
US states’ budget crisis sets stage for new attack on the working class :: www.uruknet.info :: informazione dal medio oriente :: information from middle east :: [vs-1] :: informazione dal medio oriente :: information from middle east :: []
My brother is a big football fan
He likes Liverpool
as that old saying goes: pig me - pig me once - shame on you. pig me - you can't get pigged again
everybody is now pig shy
does this qualify as behavioral economics blogging?
GED = General Equivalency Diploma
best to all
You all know I'm going for Brasil right?
The US is playing very well today.
US 2 WOW
Second Goal USA !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Upset possible!!!
I've deleted the 2nd cartoon.
Comrade Scott, I'm trying to get people to stay on economic and finance topics during business hours (high signal-to-noise) and try for a little more relaxed atmosphere in the evenings and on weekends. If you think it is fun trying to police the comments - and receiving frequent complaints - you have a different idea of fun than me.
best to all.
damn multitaskers
Tom Waits - Clap Hands
does this qualify as behavioral economics blogging?
Picking back up on the last thread, I am not surprised either that the Mises institute is in Alabama - an original Caveat Emptor/Right-to-Work kind of place - nor that they would try to argue that nothing in behavior economics suggests that we ought to have any governmental regulation, even if their old arguments about utilitarian rational actors are discredited. I guess you probably already know all this, since you're in the business of manufacturing demand!
Can't we all just get a blog?
Quit complaining folks...
or utilize your "ignore user"
TV Pitchman (Oxyclean, OrangeGlow) Billy Mays found dead in home at age 50.
Maybe the best ever....
I've deleted the 2nd cartoon.
Um, ooh...now I am guilty of whining to the teacher. I thought it was a great cartoon.
I understood what you were after - I was trying to be gracious to Broward. No, it's not my idea of fun...I get to field complaints about sites I host for 650+ users.
I'm in a hole and digging, so I'm just gonna stop now.
Best,
Scott
CR, you and kcoop should pick some regulars and distribute the load on policing the comments. As the site grows its going to be more and more burdensome
I have to say, if it's clean enough for Dilbert, it should be good enough for us roughnecks.
what cable channel is doing the USA/Brazil football thingy?
Tom Waits - Frank's Wild Years
he who governs least governs best
did someone say this before me?
The second cartoon was better. But that lady better think about job security. A lot of other people would do her job for less money.
ESPN
CAM: thanks (hate searching Comcast's 900 channels (it seems).)
Sunday afternoon CR reach around....you rule CR.
Thanks CR. I have been reading this blog for a long time but never commented...
Just wanted to say right on! The cartoon about the GED clerk is the story of my life. I was a homeless teenage mom, I used to sleep in a car and eat out of dumpsters. After working hard and saving a few bucks for a downpayment, I lived in a trailer for 5 years (California) and got a GED and a job as a clerk. In 2001 I sold the trailer for a 30K profit, which I used for a downpayment on a house while working my way up to middle mgmt. In 2006 I sold at the top, moved to a rental, and doubled that funny money speculating against housing and banks. Also got my 401k into cash in 2006.
I am on top of the world now, unlike some of my friends who are buried under college debt, credit card debt, underwater mortgage debt, and don't have the practical skills to get a real job. I lived my own personal great depression growing up and learned the right skills to survive. I'm *ing ready to be unemployed, so bring it on. All those spoilt brats out there who thought they were so much smarter and better than people like me just because they had access to credit (or mommy and daddy's bank account) are going to learn a harsh lesson.
CR....It's 10pm here, can I talk about soccer?
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists -
CR....It's 10pm here, can I talk about soccer?
It's only 9:30 AM here, but I don't mind.
zuzana -
Great story, I'm still wondering how many years of an emergency fund do I really need, right now its all guesses.
Dang Brasil scores one back
2-1
lets see, it took Brazil a minute to score in the second half
At that rate Brazil will win 45-2. (I've sent this kind of comment on CR before).
Kahuna
I don't know too much about that, but my plan is to downsize as much as possible. With super low overhead I am now able to live on about 25K a year, and I think if I cut out frivolous things I might do even better than that. My advice is to figure out what you like to eat, and stock up now. Also, consider taking up a practical hobby so you will have something to do with all your free time when you are out of a job.
"Also, consider taking up a practical hobby..."
like reloading ammo, sharpening knives, creating a neighborhood watch, judo (or some other self defense system)...
zuzana -
Oh I got the minimization down, (though I would save a lot if I quit smoking), and the hobby and stocking up on what I like is the same!
re: the dilbert cartoon, prices in Los Altos, where I want to buy, are still 1.5X what they were in 2001. A lot of cash has rolled over Silicon Valley since then, and there ain't no more land or subdividing to do so it is something of a Fortress. Plus interest rates were high then and are pretty low now.
Given CRs ability to make pigs fly, a job with the federal reserve would not be a bad idea.
They sure require people to make pigs fly.
time out for squirrel recipes
We just came back from a week at the "Aryan Nation-Disney Community" AKA Seabrook Island SC. That is a seriously strange place.
My guess is their beach rental is around 60%. A lot of empty island homes not generating the monthly payment for the owners. I checked the messages at our place. The previous guest was turned down on a $1000 VISA cash advance and they recomended the debt reduction plan for them.
The slips at the marinas we were at were at 70% occupancy. A lot of dead billboards and businesses along I-95. South of the Border was partially closed and dead.
Time to run out of here and get home, have a good day/evening all.
South of the Border was partially closed and dead.
Thank you, GAWD!
FYI. ALL of South Carolina is seriously strange.
gnome: that would explain the need for Sanford's break
That Sanford dude has messed up the Appalachian Trail alibi for everyone to follow.
Sanford - A big surprise. Usually Republicans don't do well with female latinas - the radio joke I heard..
Anyone who planned on this summer rentals covering their mortgage is probably unhappy.
well, when someone tries to be something other than what they truly are, a south of the border liason is inevitable
Wish I had watched the first half of the game, the second half looks like a complete mismatch.
Mojo Nixon - Disney Is The Enemy
The US sat back and should have subbed Altidore- he looked totally dead.
2-2 sucks
he was a tan line admirer as well
I'm disappointed at the athleticism of the US players. We have 1.5 times the number of people as BRazil...what's wrong with our gene pool?
what's wrong with our gene pool?
cheetos, big gulps and supersize it
"l...what's wrong with our gene pool?"
we coddled the chilrdren
We produce great HALO players.
Soccer is not a sport that was popular in the US until recent years. Soccer is really a poor country sport- all you need is a ball and nothing else but an open space.
What a great match.
too bad the reply goal didn't count... it was clearly in. Should be 3-2 for brasil.
Yancey-
OK then how come Germany has what....4 world cups?
Yeah, but how many Super Bowls has Germany won? Or World Series!
"OK then how come Germany has what....4 world cups?"
there was that recent unpleasantness some 60 year ago
I wonder how many Super Bowls have turned on a placekicker who was a former soccer player, though.
Soccer requires a lot of skill, mass and strength is not enough.
We have 1.5 times the number of people as BRazil...what's wrong with our gene pool?
Historically we were Europe's religiious nutballs, castoffs, dissenters, criminal element, and huddled masses shipped here.
Then we imported laborers from Africa to do all the hard work while we cracked the whip and drank mint juleps.
Laying the railroads was too difficult so we had to import corvee labor from China and Eire.
Actually, the real issue is that we've got a lot of great sports players but they concentrate on other sports.
If soccer was meant to be important than John Madden would be the announcer.
The US has great speed athletes...look at NFL cornerbacks. Where are they on our national soccer team?
Very different musculature than in football, baseball, etc.
Just look at the upper vs. lower bodies on a Rinaldhino, Beckett, etc. When you're going to be running around a soccer field for 90 minutes, it's counterproductive to lug around a highly-developed upper body
NFL = big money
Soccer in the US = riding the bus.
nova-
Soccer in Europe.....big money also. That argument doesn't work anymore.
nova is right- look at the level of youth development in the USA vs Europe.
Game is over.
bummer.
What a come back !
Seriously? How many schools have soccer as a sport in the US? How many kids can get a scholarship playing soccer?
My daughters school is big on lacrosse for ivy league scholarships and football
nova - welcome back. Last time I stopped at South of the Border it was pretty sketchy. Great set for a zombie flick, though.
C
lacrosse, now that's a twee sport
I find it encouraging that Dilbert is so popular.
Dilbert will remain popular while it continues to parallel the rank ineptness of corporate management at the executive level.
I have sat through an executive presentation where the presenter actually paralleled a dilbert spoof. That clown lasted almost 2 years and cost the company over a million $ to pay off his contract. Despite ineptness the clown went straight into a new exec position at a colleagues company. Unbelievable.. ineptness is the path to success.
Thanks C,
I like that place. It is so not pre-packaged, disney, sterile. Its just shines with pre-70's American lameness - the billboards for a 100 miles are really awesome also.
At South of the Border you are only a 100 yards away from a side road where banjo playing sodomists are watching the 700 club and hoping you break down nearby
So where are these good investments I'm passing up on because I'm too afraid to lose money?
"I find it encouraging that Dilbert is so popular. "
The strip tells a truth that is told in few other places.
When people start feeling good about the work they do and the climate they do it in, Dilbert's popularity will fade.
Who sees that happening any time soon?
new oxymoron: good investment
Smoking cigarettes expensive? Why don't you try a cigarette making machine and roll your own? Just Goggle cigaretrte making machine.
I just came back from the gym where I was listening to Christina Romer talking about "Growth Without Bubbles".
Here is her argument as to when the economy is going to recover in a reasonably near term and then get back to normal growth and without asset bubbles - pretty much in the following order of priorities
1. Hope
2. American optimism
3. American ingenuity
4. Recovery of the financial sector
5. Obama's economic team, which has learned from the mistakes of the 1930s
6. Systemic macro-prudential regulator
7. Healthcare reform
8. Renewable energy and education components of the stimulus plan
Boy, am I feeling reassured!
The reaction of the audience was quite telling - academics were squarely on Romer's side and private capital was doubtful and pessimistic
(Good game, Team USA! As for Brazil, it was their typical - you try to score as many you can, we will score as many as we want)
Christina Romer also believes that it was European gold, fleeing ahead of WWII, that lifted the US out of depression. Absurd on its face.
Wow, go Chrissie. Keep up with the Hopium.
C
Source: Eurowatch blog
Edward Hugh, who writes interesting posts, explains why he thinks the European stimulus plan failed, or in his words "shot it's bolt." Interesting for comparison to the effect the O-Team plan will actually have.
...More worryingly, the rate of contraction in Germany's private sector accelerated slightly this month, with flash estimate of the Markit composite PMI falling to 43.4 from the seven-month high of 44.0 in May.The flash estimate for the manufacturing PMI index rose to 40.5 from 39.6 in May, but the flash services PMI reading fell to 44.3 from 45.2 last month. And in the manufacturing sector the ratio of new orders to stocks of finished goods fell back to 1.12 after rising to 1.18 in May. Which effectively means inventories started to rise again.
we'll be fine now, the smart ones are in charge
I drove I-95 from DC to SC and back. I noticed that there were hardly any trucks from the major trucking companies. It was all independents hauling trailors that once belonged to someone else. Most had the previous owners logos painted over. I am not sure what this means. My guess is only spot loads are moving now.
Rolling meth labs.
Aka, MSM happitalk and govt massaged data.
As evidenced by recent hiring and CP lending.
Oh, good. an idea I can get behind. Restrictions and penalties for technology transfers and strong IP protections.
The financial sector is still 3x bigger than it needs to be in order for a healthy recovery.
Just not the 1890s or 1970s or 1980s.
Bigger foxes for a smaller henhouse.
This from the same administration that learns from history? GMAFB.
As expressed by a carbon cap'n'trade bill.
Barry "Buzzwords" Obama.
""Growth Without Bubbles"."
impossible with a fiat currency, and unlikely without it
Re:
Los altos safe due to lack of subdividing and lots of funny money
My aunt lives on Bale Lane just north of St. Helena. She's not rich just lucky to buy her 1 acre lot back when it was only 20k
The lots around there cannot be subdivided and from the looks of some of the newer homes there is some serious money around there that is impervious to the downturn. A lot of second homes in the millions.
But that hasn't stopped prices from plummeting recently, especially land.
How can it be that these banks are not just swimming in cash. Borrow at 0% and loan at 5-8% is just like printing money.
Could the green shoots be in trouble. Unemployment still out of control and unfortunately we do not have anything that even resembles a jobs plan from our wonderful leaders. Bailouts, tarp, health plans but no jobs.
hat tip to: Financial Opinions Updated Daily iamned.com for the good articles
We need jobs, jobs, jobs and I know I sound like a broken record but that should be priority one. Washington's not getting it. Now things are sliding downhill, and no one in the Congress has any stomach to pass another stimulus bill. It would take 25% unemployment (on the record 25%) for the public to be willing to take on any more debt. So we are stuck.
"How can it be that these banks are not just swimming in cash. Borrow at 0% and loan at 5-8% is just like printing money."
Underwater NINJA mortgages - it's just like the national money hole.
YouTube - Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole?
Get yourself some 90% pure hopium!
Cheap too.
Cures gloom, doom and rational thought.
--These claims are unverified by the FDA.
Liquidity crunch to keep U.S. dollar demand strong
Liquidity crunch to keep U.S. dollar demand strong
| Reuters
Randy Newman - Shame
South of the Border is the sketchiest place I have ever driven by.
I wouldn't stop there if I was running on four flat tires.
On topic: I'll add #10 to that list
"Unemployment still out of control and unfortunately we do not have anything that even resembles a jobs plan from our wonderful leaders."
What sort of a jobs plan would you suggest? The current jobs plan seem to be to expand the government. How do you encourage job creation to achieve productive employment rather than make-work?
South of the Border is the sketchiest place I have ever driven by.
Even sketchier if you actually stop.
......have you ever noticed that things are talked about, hashed out, and over-chewed here, then AFTERWHICH, TPTB then comes to a totally different conclusion to the dismay of all (here), and then usually to a "I told ya so" playing out.
CR......send a memo to the uppity-ups in DC......for a small fee, they may use CR as a verbal think tank sounding board for any future dumbass suggestions, ideas, or procedures for improving our well-greased economy.
Those stupid American sheeple watching 'American Idol',...they should be following soccer!
South of the Border fans - you need to go to DollyWood!
It's an upscale version of what SOB can only dream of being
"for a small fee, they may use CR as a verbal think tank sounding board for any future dumbass suggestions, ideas, or procedures for improving our well-greased economy."
CR's comment section could become the "Bureau of Unintended Consequences Analysis".
From Wikipedia... the rest of the story:
"Part of the film Forces of Nature was filmed at South of the Border. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, originally from nearby Dillon, South Carolina, worked for a summer as a poncho-wearing waiter at South of the Border to help pay his way through Harvard.[2]"
How can it be that these banks are not just swimming in cash. Borrow at 0% and loan at 5-8% is just like printing money.
Banks are being reasonable (and selfish) by not lending freely in a recession.
So, yes, they are making good money on the spread, but they are not printing the money
Could you add acknowledging my power to that list? Best to cover all the bases for this prayer.
//I just came back from the gym where I was listening to Christina Romer talking about "Growth Without Bubbles".
Here is her argument as to when the economy is going to recover in a reasonably near term and then get back to normal growth and without asset bubbles - pretty much in the following order of priorities//
Eat at Wafflehouses! They still have a smoking section that is usually full. Plus, where else in America, outside of a prison, will you get served by a young man with an SS tattoo and the word PRIDE.
British Rum Maker Got a $2.7 Billion Payout from TARP
By Susie Madrak Saturday Jun 27, 2009 5:00pm
British Rum Maker Got a $2.7 Billion Payout from TARP | Crooks and Liars
Alright gang, I added "Hopium" to the glossary.
Please do NOT stop at South of the Border.
I hate that damn place and their hundreds of billboards...
Shylockracy,
I posted that yesterday.. scary huh..
//British Rum Maker Got a $2.7 Billion Payout from TARP//
Have they considered opening argentinian branches?
//Plus, where else in America, outside of a prison, will you get served by a young man with an SS tattoo and the word PRIDE.//
Apologies, Lucifer, I didn't see your post.
@nova
what, you didn't stop at Stuckey's?
HomeGnome ,
Have you seen the movie "Equilibrium" where everyone in 'Libria" has to take the drug 'Prozium' to suppress human emotions?
Stuckeys is almost gone, alas. Plus I am a collector of of WaffleHouses.
Shylockracy,
That is fine.. I posted it yesterday because that article showed us another example of the kind of kleptocrcacy we live in.
//Apologies, Lucifer, I didn't see your post.//
@ Lucifer Nope, never seen it.
@ Nova
Might be able to find that server here:
Welcome to Maurice's Gourmet BBQ
Don't be surprised if that is already happening.
//CR......send a memo to the uppity-ups in DC......for a small fee, they may use CR as a verbal think tank sounding board for any future dumbass suggestions, ideas, or procedures for improving our well-greased economy//
Alright gang, I added "Hopium" to the glossary.
Thanks, HG
But are you sure one should ask for Barry and not for Larry?
"South of the Border" and "Ben Bernanke" linked and no one cares? Must be drowning your sorrows re: USA-Brasil.
bernanke used to work summers at South of the Border.
And i kinda like Seabrook... much more quaint than Myrtle Beach.
Waffle House - It used to be very comforting to have my very own waitress also make the meat, hashbrowns, eggs, and toast, and still find time to refill your coffee, and take care of just HER other customers. I especially liked the proximity of the grill to the fork.
nincompoop -
Smoking cigarettes expensive? Why don't you try a cigarette making machine and roll your own? Just Goggle cigaretrte making machine.
Hawaii is looking at taxing Internet purchases, don't know how that will work but...
HomeGnome,
Here is a link.
Equilibrium (2002)
Equilibrium (2002) - Plot Summary
In a futuristic world, a strict regime has eliminated war by suppressing emotions: books, art and music are strictly forbidden and feeling is a crime punishable by death. Cleric John Preston (Bale) is a top ranking government agent responsible for destroying those who resist the rules. Whe he misses a dose of Prozium, a mind-altering drug that hinders emotion, Preston, who has been trained to enforce the strict laws of the new regime, suddenly becomes the only person capable of overthrowing it.
HomeGnome,
Maurice probably has at least 1 FBI agent intern waiting tables. Wafflehouse is where they work extra shifts to buy that AR-15.
Don't be surprised if that is already happening.
So, what do you think Geithner's and Summers' screen names are?
Can it be Sebastian and Jas Jain?
Edited "Hopium" for an alternate definition.
Really really good post at the oil drum about the economic effects of being at peek oil. As oil production rose, so did economic output. As oil production falls so too will economic output unless new sources of energy are developed. And points out the danger that our fearless lords of money don't really get that we're transitioning into a new regime. (ergo their attempts to fix the economy will fail)
Money Quote: Unlike money, Btus can’t be printed out of thin air.
The Oil Drum | Have We Reached an Inflection Point in Economics History?: “Indeflation” and Energy
Basel Too
Seabrook is a movie set for the making of "White Wankers with Money." The PG version of course. \
I'd always felt that peak oil would wind up being peak-lots-of-stuff: peak money, peak housing, peak civilization, etc.
Peakoil.. hmm.. you really should spend more time at the oildrum.. they miss you there!
//I'd always felt that peak oil would wind up being peak-lots-of-stuff//
"Money Quote: Unlike money, Btus can’t be printed out of thin air."
Really? Isn't that what a solar panel or windmill basically does? Print BTUs out of thin air?
Well, there's the alternative thesis of abiotic theism.
Countries that are willing to build coal and nuke plants have no issues!
//Unlike money, Btus can’t be printed out of thin air.//
Lucifer thanks for the link.
@ Dawg- thanks for your input.
@ Nova
Maurice's is pretty bad.
I'd go to Palmetto Pig instead...
i used to horseback ride on Seabrook, and yes, it could be described as white wankers with money. of course, the same could probably be said of Isle of Palms, Sullivans, Kiawah, and of course, Hilton Head...
I like the Palmetto Pig and Rush's
Quit messing with me...
You can't print Btu's...
But you sure can generate some with enough hot air.
So how have the natural gas models worked out.. shale gas really f**ked up the peak oilers.
//Well, there's the alternative thesis of abiotic theism.//
and why is the surface of titan covered by hydrocarbons? Biogenic?
//Well, there's the alternative thesis of abiotic theism.//
Hey, Basel and I BOTH recommended Palmetto Pig.
Maybe we should try to get some comped sandwiches?
Palmetto Pig • 803-733-2556 • Great Barbeque in Columbia, SC
1 Hope derived from the word Dope.
2 Use Hope when brains and hard work won't work.
3 See rule one and two.
4 Last shot use reality.
Does that mean he will not make any more commercials?
Billy Mays, star pitchman, dead at 50: The booming bearded TV hawker behind products such as Oxiclean and Mighty Putty has died.
By Vivian Kuo CNN
Last Updated: June 28, 2009: 4:09 PM ET
(CNN) -- Billy Mays, the man with the booming voice famous for fronting products such as Oxiclean and Orange Glo in TV commercials, has died.
Tampa police say Mays' wife Deborah found him unresponsive at his Tampa-area home Sunday morning. Tampa Fire Rescue pronounced him deceased at 7:45 a.m.
Lord of Darkness, I think that's the fourth post on CR today about Mr. Mays.
You're slipping into the nether-realms...
I know.. but a person like that deserves all the scorn he is getting. I heard about his death in the morning too..
//Lord of Darkness, I think that's the fourth post on CR today about Mr. Mays.//
Proxy Clean?
HomeGnome,
There was something about his voice that made me want to go to a taping of his infomercial with a baseball bat.
HomeGnome -
Hey did you hear about Billy Mays?
Now to start the mash on an IPA.
It seems to be a slow news day so I it looks like the world is not coming to an end today.
Turkish Economy Probably Contracted Most on Record: Week Ahead
Turkish Economy Probably Contracted Most on Record: Week Ahead - Bloomberg.com
By Mark Bentley
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s economy probably shrank at the fastest pace on record in the first quarter as exports slumped and consumers slowed purchases of cars and domestic appliances.
Gross domestic product slumped an annual 11.9 percent, the biggest drop since the government started reporting quarterly data in 1987, after a 6.2 percent drop in the previous three months, according to the median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The statistics office will release the figures in Ankara at 10 a.m. tomorrow.
"shale gas really f**ked up the peak oilers."
naw, but a global credit crash exacerbated by horrible demographics and worse policy decisions put at least a few years on the clock.
IF shale translates to $2/btu natgas, AND we really implement private sedans/coupes/pickups into natgas in a few major markets, then we may have dodged that bullet for a generation or two.
But I will admit I use the heck out of oxyclean on almost everything. Cheap and it works great.
Hey, maybe I can take his place?
HollywoodHack,
We will stop burning oil because we have better sources of energy.. not because we are going to run out of it.
How can it be that these banks are not just swimming in cash.
Because they're losing it even faster everywhere else.
Unemployment still out of control and unfortunately we do not have anything that even resembles a jobs plan from our wonderful leaders.
Productive jobs do not come from a government "jobs plan".
Oil / gas is still the best bang for the buck not counting Nukes.
This is gonna be fun!
Beijing Formalizes Call for New Reserve Currency
Beijing Formalizes Call for New Reserve Currency - WSJ.com
BEIJING -- China's central bank reiterated its call for the creation of a new international currency that could replace currencies such as the dollar in countries' official reserves.
In its annual report on financial stability, issued Friday, the People's Bank of China said the country will push reform of the international currency system to make it more diversified and reasonable. While it didn't specifically target the U.S. currency, it said it aims to reduce over-reliance on the current reserve currencies, of which the dollar is the biggest."To avoid the shortcomings of sovereign credit currencies acting as reserve currencies, we need to create an... international reserve currency that can maintain the long-term stability of its value," the PBOC said.
The report, a lengthy document that addressed a broad range of issues, reiterated a proposal made by PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan in March to use Special Drawing Rights, the synthetic currency developed by the IMF, as a super-sovereign reserve currency. That proposal, made just before the G20 summit in London earlier this year, appeared in an essay authored by Mr. Zhou and posted on the PBOC's Web site.
I drove I-95 from DC to SC and back. I noticed that there were hardly any trucks from the major trucking companies.
The majors are dead - just like automotive. Too much overhead & 'legacy'. Small start ups & indies are all you will see.
Also - was on I35 & I40 last week - saw LOTS of truck traffic - more than I've seen in quite awhile. I think it is spotty...
Kahuna,
I usually can do a full batch of all grain (10 gallons after boil) in about 6 hours.
This is everything: mash, boil. chilling and clean up.
What batch size are you making and how long is it taking you?
"This is gonna be fun!"
the last thing the chinese want is a run on the dollar
Unless they know what they are doing! We could easily start the construction of 100 large coal and nuclear plants + reprocessing plants + real infrastructure right now. But we have enviros, EPA and all the BSers
//Productive jobs do not come from a government "jobs plan".//
Speaking of Billy Mays and other celebrities, who had misfortune to die around death of another, bigger celebrity, which deprived them of the last burst of public affection:
From New York magazine
The Eclipsed Celebrity Death Club
Poor Farrah Fawcett. A month ago, People magazine's Larry Hackett admitted to the Times that she only had one remaining chance for some friendly press:
"At this point, Farrah has to die," he said. "It's the only cover left for her." Needless to say, she's missed her chance. Having vanished from the headlines after Michael Jackson's sudden demise, Farrah is just the latest to join a peculiar group: the Eclipsed Celebrity Death Club.
The classic ECD example is Groucho Marx, who passed away the same week as Elvis Presley, and thus missed out on a good week's worth of TV tributes. But the easiest way for a famous person to vanish from the earth without so much as a blip is to follow a president of the United States. Ray Charles caught barely a moment's coverage when he died in 2004, right in the middle of the weeklong blanket coverage of Ronald Reagan's death and funeral. Same story for James Brown, who got some press but definitely ran second to Gerald Ford.
Southern Discomfort: Obama to Colombia: Military base now, free trade later.
Southern Discomfort - WSJ.com
President Obama gets an opportunity to show genuine foreign-policy leadership Monday when he meets with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. Between them will sit the unratified Colombia-U.S. free trade agreement. The U.S. failure to get this deal done is a long-running travesty, but that now offers Mr. Obama a chance to show how adept he is at international politics.
The free-trade issue has become complicated by another urgent matter: Will Colombia grant a U.S. request to use the Palanquero military installation north of Bogotá as a U.S. air base, or "cooperative security location"? Mr. Uribe is still asking for ratification of the trade deal (FTA) negotiated in good faith and signed more than 30 months ago. Beyond this display of patience, America's most important South American partner has gone to great lenths to satisfy Democrats who've made charges of violence against labor leaders in the country. The undisputable fact is that under Mr. Uribe's leadership Colombians are safer than they have been in years.
"We will stop burning oil because we have better sources of energy.."
familiar with cuba? we have quite a few gasoline-burning cars on the planet, enough to be a in a similar state for at least a century. if the economy keeps crumbling, that may well be the outcome. converting to different energy sources requires investment. do you see the political will or resources for that at this time? how about in ten years, when boomers are REALLY draining the coffers?
HomeGnome
I do 5 gallon batches, and it usually takes me around 4.5 to 5 hours.
I'm stuck with doing indoors brewing and my stove can not handle more than 7 gallons boiling. The biggest incentive I have to get a single family home is to BBQ and brew outside.
Unless they know what they are doing!
ROFLMAO!!!
Predicting is hard, especially the future.
//familiar with cuba?//
Kahuna,
Get yourself a 100,000 Btu propane burner and let 'er rip!
Did the indoor brew for about a year before I got mine.
Including one boil over that just trashed my stove!
Cheers!
"Predicting is hard, especially the future."
predicting is incredibly easy in the very long term, nearly impossible in the very short term. that's why i was buying gold and shorting FRE in 2002.
the last thing the chinese want is a run on the dollar
That assumes the main objective for the Chinese is to maximize the value of their FX reserves or, being a bit more generous, their short term economic growth.
However, they might have other objectives, like economic dominance in the world and military dominance in the region, which might outweigh short-term losses caused by dollar decline.
You read too much official history..
//predicting is incredibly easy in the very long term//
'Pretty Boy' Paulson and the Goldman Gang: Commentary: 'Public Enemies' run, not rob, our banks today
'Public Enemies' run, not rob, our banks - MarketWatch
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Yes, two Great Depressions linked in a mysterious time-warp: Bank robbers and robber banks. Back in the dark days of the first Great Depression John Dillinger was admired, a dapper Robin Hood. Banks were the real villains.
Dillinger, Bonnie and Clyde, "Pretty Boy" Floyd, and "Machine Gun" Kelly were the "American Idols" of their day -- "Public Enemies" to the FBI. But folk heroes to an angry public who cheered when Dillinger destroyed bank records during holdups.
Yes, good ol' John cared for the little guy, our "stand-in," a secret way of getting back at the crooks running America's banks. Imagine him storming into a bank in a three-piece suit sporting a Tommy gun. In broad daylight! A real man. He leaps over a counter confronting a scared teller, gently taps a stack of bills with his gun barrel: "That's your money, mister?" He nods. "We're here for the bank's money, not yours. Put it away."
How much is the US spending on "defense" every year; officially?
500 Billion?
Plus, off budget/ black ops stuff.
If I were the Chinese and could wack my rival for a Trillion or even two T; I'd definitely consider it.
South of the Border fans - you need to go to DollyWood!
It's an upscale version of what SOB can only dream of being
SOTB
Dollywood
Let the people decide...
CR,
ocrenter had an interesting question over at JtR's BubbleInfo. Specifically, what percentage of homeowners that sold during the height of the bubble (04 to 06) went to cash and rented? ocrenter is obviously curious about "cash on the housing sidelines".
If you were to explore the question, I would suggest breaking down the disposition of bubble-era sellers into categories:
1) Sold and repurchased (locally)
2) Sold and repurchased (remotely, i.e., out of state)
3) Sold and rented
4) Other (e.g., sold under extreme financial hardship, moved into care facility, died, etc.)
Might be hard to separate out the extreme financial hardship from sold & rented, but their potential for future homeownership would be worlds apart of course.
well, Dollywood does have two things going for it...
I'll be here all week folks...
"You read too much official history.."
naw, lucy that's based on personal history.
it was obvious that in 2002 the dollar was toast and that the financial system was massively overleveraged. Doug Noland started his column in september '00.
Safe Haven | Doug Noland Archives
I would counter that your personal axe-to-grind and myopia colors your take on current events far more than almost any poster here.
HomeGnome is right; China's collection of T's serves multiple purposes, and one could easily be the ultimate economic weapon. Much safer to kill us with an economic nuke than a real one. It's not like the world would say anything other than "the US had it coming".
Hubris is my favorite sin.. Hubris arises from excessive certainty.
//I would counter that your personal axe-to-grind and myopia colors your take on current events far more than almost any poster here.//
"However, they might have other objectives,"
the PRC has only one objective - maintain stability and maintain party power. a collapse in the currency of their #1 or 2 market which has been, more or less, the informal anchor to their own currency for at least a decade doesn't help that. there's a sentimental attachment to formosa, but that's a very, very distant second in concern relative to the above.
TV Pitchman (Oxyclean, OrangeGlow) Billy Mays found dead in home at age 50.
Best news all week. I hated that S.O.B. shouting at me to buy CRAP.
Mozillo?
//I hated that S.O.B. shouting at me to buy CRAP.//
HomeGnome is right; China's collection of T's serves multiple purposes, and one could easily be the ultimate economic weapon. Much safer to kill us with an economic nuke than a real one. It's not like the world would say anything other than "the US had it coming".
Which is why SAFE & PBoC will continue buying Ts... until they don't.
How much is the US spending on "defense" every year; officially?
500 Billion?
Plus, off budget/ black ops stuff.
If I were the Chinese and could wack my rival for a Trillion or even two T; I'd definitely consider it.
Given that money is fungible, every dollar lent to the US by foreigners is a dollar the US did not have to save itself to fund its military
From International Herald Tribune
But even in a country that strongly discourages criticism of its economic policies, hints of dissatisfaction are appearing over China's foreign investments.
For instance, a Chinese blogger complained last month, "It is as if China has made a gift to the United States Navy of 200 brand new aircraft carriers."
Bankers estimate that $1 trillion of China's total foreign exchange reserves of $1.8 trillion are in American securities. With aircraft carriers costing up to $5 billion apiece, $1 trillion would, in theory, buy 200 of them.
By buying U.S. bonds, the Chinese government has been investing a large chunk of the country's savings in assets earning just 3 percent annually in dollars. And those low returns turn into real declines of about 10 percent a year after factoring in inflation and the yuan's appreciation against the dollar.
Or the Chinese could have cut a deal with the Red and Blue Neo-CONs along these lines:
We'll keep buying your worthless paper if you'll send your guys to die for something we really want: OIL.
Damn, tore my foil hat again...
Although, would be kinda nice to have been at Darth Cheney's secret energy meetings...
Dick Cheney has secret energy?
@ burnside.
Must be dark matter.
From the WSJ article:
"The central bank's report, on the PBOC Web site, comes a day after Li Lianzhong, an academic at a key think tank under the Communist Party of China, said China's yuan should become the fifth currency in the SDR, joining the U.S. dollar, yen, euro and sterling. Mr. Li proposed an equal 20% weighting in the SDR basket for the five currencies."
Why would anyone give the sterling equal weighting with the dollar, yen, and euro? Maybe things are better than I've read in the UK.
I am surprised they did not include any commodities in their recommended basket for the SDR. I am a stupid monkey that way, trading my bits of green paper for bits of yellow and white metal.
HomeGnome . . .
What does Pawley's Island look like these days?
HomeGnome....You may have hit on something that actually happened and something the US Citizen would have never believed might go on until it did.
Burnside, I don't know.
I haven't been down to the coast in awhile...
China gold reserves surge; it's No. 5 holder - MarketWatch
they have plenty in reserves. the IMF explicitly prohibits any kind of gold-as-currency regime.
Although, would be kinda nice to been at Darth Cheney's secret energy meetings...
Coming to a bookstore near you - Cheney to Publish His Memoir
Good people at Simon &Schuster will kindly pay Mr. Cheney with $2 Million as a compensation for any inconvenience caused by reminding him is not running this country any more.
That is a first!
Aide's tale of John Edwards sex tape
Aide's tale of John Edwards sex tape
Sunday, June 28th 2009, 4:00 AM
Former presidential candidate John Edwards is out of luck if he hoped that the extramarital affairs of Gov. Mark Sanford and Sen. John Ensign would take people’s minds off his own cheating scandal. Former Edwards aide Andrew Young says the ex-senator and his former mistress, Rielle Hunter, once made a sex tape, according to someone who has seen Young’s book proposal.
Lucifer -
Aide's tale of John Edwards sex tape
Like I said, a slow news day.
Kauai_Kahuna,
Our presidential candidates are no better than Paris Hilton or Kim Kardashian.
Lucifer -
I have never thought they were, and sex is the drug of choice for politicians. I just never thought it worthy of paying attention to.
By the way, who is Kim Kardashian? Got to go look it up.
But Paris or Kim do not talk about family values and god.
//I have never thought they were, and sex is the drug of choice for politicians.//
You are from the stone ages
//By the way, who is Kim Kardashian?//
Noise Alert:
Business Time!
YouTube -
Appropos of nothing - could this country become a world leader in undeveloping? Get really good at returning places like Seabrook or Kiawah to their undisturbed, pre-development state?
Yeah Kahuna, do you live on an island or something?
Lucifer -
You are from the stone ages Smile
Seems that way, I don't watch that much TV except for news and some SciFi.
TJ and The Bear, I can't think of a good source for that type of data. The answer in 2004 and 2005 is very few homeowners sold and moved to renting - because the number of renters was declining and the number of homeowners rising. I think that started to change in 2006.
best wishes
someone emailed me that Andrew Young story about Edwards. Some of the stuff that Young mentions is absolutely nauseating (and I'm not even referring to the sex stuff). but of course, Young is literally selling his book.
Check out the Congaree National Swamp.
Congaree National Park (U.S. National Park Service)
I've gone off trail here many times.
Seen some big wild boar out there.
CR,
I was thinking the same thing (i.e., no good source of data). Oh well, I figured it was worth asking.
p.s.: Just sent the same question to you via email, so no need to reply there.
P.S.: Pardon my manners -- Thanks!!!
What happened to " buy now or be priced out forever" or "renting is like throwing away your money"
How do you think Mr. Madoff is feeling tonight?
How do you think Mr. Madoff is feeling tonight?
Happy.
Once he's sentenced, he's going to a nicer jail.
How do you think Mr. Madoff is feeling tonight?
I'm still amazed that guy's alive.
TJ, I'm kinda surprised he's made it this long too without lead poisoning...
It does not matter.. His wife is already feeling terrible.
//HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 4:56 pm
reply ignore user
How do you think Mr. Madoff is feeling tonight?//
Buying versus Renting
Ginnie Mae: Your Path to Homeownership
On the job front
I guess one should just be luck enough to have a job
http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh221/mickyjsul/image0011.jpg
Bad assumptions on that rent calculator, especially that of 5% annual rent increases.
-you got to be s#!tting me!
TJ - plug in your own values.
Ginnie Mae: Your Path to Homeownership
Gee, this is wacked, I think bankrate had a much better one.
lol @ the 2% home value increases...
the may numbers are out for flyover, CA
DQNews - Capital Regions Chart
barfly,
Plugged in my current rent vs. buying my condo at current price and (very generously) assuming 0% appreciation. Essentially breaking even after 5 years.
HH - I saw that, too, and laughed. However, you can enter any values you like into the boxes. The one's given are examples.
HH,
Lots of positives on sales volumes, lots of negatives on median. Just reinforces that there's activity at the lower end.
i did, entered no appreciation. hilarity ensued. nicer parts of coastal CA still need to drop 30% before this requires more than a second of bitter laughter. make that 50% if the rental market stays as weak as it is now.
"Just reinforces that there's activity at the bottom."
yup, either underemployed flippers, or folks who want to be landlords of growhouses for a margin of a hundred bucks a month. good luck to them.
From the DQ Las Vegas page:
About 73.4 percent of the Las Vegas-area houses and condos that resold in May were foreclosure resales, meaning those homes had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months.
Woof!
More on Lost Wages...
The region’s all-home median sale price has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 25 consecutive months and in May stood 56.7 percent below the region’s peak $312,000 overall median in November 2006.
The median price paid for resale single-family detached houses – by far the region’s largest home-type category – is one of the best gauges of overall price trends. That median fell slightly, to $140,000 in May from $142,000 in April, and was 40.9 percent lower than a year ago. It was the lowest for any month since it was also $140,000 in February 2001, and stood 55.2 percent below its $312,250 peak in June 2006.
Another gauge analysts watch has also fallen sharply from its peak: The median paid per square foot for resale detached houses fell to $77 in May, down 1.3 percent from April and down 36.9 percent from a year ago. It was 59.5 percent below the $190 peak reached in June 2006.
@barfly - does GinnieMae have a "rent vs buy vs ruthless default" calc?
Could be a winner. Licensed gizmo through favorite econ and finance blog. I see opportunity, ingenuity, a stabilized financial system, hope.
This really is the way. If we can get it done by Wednesday the second half recovery is a gimme.
C
HH - scroll down to the third graph
The Dangerous Disconnect Between Home Prices and Fundamentals
Counterpointer,
I think we could significantly heighten the social acceptability of walkaways if we simply drop "ruthless default" in favor of "efficient breach" in all discussion. Immediately recasts every deadbeat homedebtor into a savvy businessperson.
counterpointer, lol. I think you have something there.
I guess one should just be luck enough to have a job
Take a might big towel to towel that one...
barfly -
So how does the math of median income of 65K and median housing is around 720K look?
Would you think even Greenspan would say that was a bubble?
Oh, wait Hawaii is different, and it will be different this time, and it can't happen here. Anyone got some spare hopium?
thanks, bar. actually, the second is even more interesting, i've been curious about hard $s for japan RE for the past month. i'd love to see an income overlay graph on that.
"Homes in Tokyo lost 80 percent of their value and are still on the downward slide to this day. "
no reason that can't be LA or NYC...
CA is already back at 300K, btw - that article caught the top perfectly
Thread Music:
YouTube - Talking Heads "Burning Down the House"
some of the best stuff on youtube is from this concert, a few years before that:
YouTube - Talking Heads - Live in Rome 1980 - 10 Born Under Punches
they peaked musically long before they peaked commercially (like many entertainers)
CA is already back at 300K, btw
Yes and no, of course. Once we get back to a better balance of sales across the price spectrum then we can really say that.
Dang - marketing never was my strong suit.
But think of the possibilities: "rent vs buy vs meth & trailer"...
C
Hack,
Thanks for the link.
HH-
Labor and Wages Japan Economy News & Blog - Business, Economy, Real Estate, Marketing and Economic Reports
"rent vs buy vs meth & trailer"...
What is the quality of the meth? Sorry I'm thinking breaking bad here.
Speed Kills, Kahuna.
some of the best stuff on youtube is from this concert, a few years before that:
YouTube - Talking Heads - Live in Rome 1980 - 10 Born Under Punches
they peaked musically long before they peaked commercially (like many entertainers)
I saw that tour - a friend of mine was working at the UN in NYC - gave me a heads up after he saw them there so caught them when they showed up at my local college auditorium... held only about 5000. Very good acoustics. Outstanding concert.
I wasn't always plugged in though... Missed Bob Marley when he came through town & played the same venue. I am still pissed I missed that one... sat outside and listed 'vicariously'. Damn.
Excuse me!?!?
Last month FIVE homes in all of Santa Cruz County changed hands???
WTF!!!
//the May numbers are out for flyover, CA//
HomeGnome -
I have an addictive personality, I don't touch anything that is not legal.
Does CA start issuing IOUs Wed ?
you might be looking at new homes, pico... SCz county isn't exactly developer heaven
Speaking of the Cali implosion, has bondgirl said to get the heck out of bonds? I have not been able to keep up with every thread.
Does the CA lottery winner get a $36mm IOU personally signed by the Gov?
dryfly,
Same here. Somehow I missed U2 at Red Rocks back when I was a 19 and hitting concerts left & right in Denver. Argh!!!
my pleasure. i actually bought 'remain in light' when I was 13... my personal maturity still hasn't caught up with my musical maturity back then
No ruthless defaults for you then, Kahuna. They sound like the thin end of the wedge. Gateway, even.
I can already hear the grim tales on daytime teevee. "It didn't seem like much, just a house, value had tanked and the bank was totally douchey about the whole thing, so I defaulted. Yes, it was only going to be once... swear to glod. But soon enough it was another and another, and I had to get away to New York., y'now, rent for a while I was head of rate hedging at an IB. Was I putting myself in harm's way? Maybe. Anyhow, it just didn't seem right, putting shareholder divvie at risk like that. And then the Treasury... oh man, I never wanted that job, but I knew a guy in college who said I'd be great - knew the trade, didn't pay tax, long experience, spoke to some people. So, yeah, took the job, right up next to the biggest temptation. Yeah, I fell, bigtime. That was my rock bottom, I had finally done it. I defaulted on sovereign debt".
C
thanks for the japan link, bar. i don't see income #s right off the bat, but i'm sure they're there with a bit of digging.
Thanks HH. Just noticed that but my EDIT button seems to be broken so I'll have to endure the embarrassment for eternity.
As my wife often reminds me, "Read the fine print!"
So, a couple of folks have asserted that the rental market is declining, I'm curious what the numbers are to bear this out - obviously rents themselves are dropping, but what are the numbers behind this? Has anyone compiled numbers on the net gain in rental stock from owner-occupied vacancies? Presumably a lot of people are trying to ride it out by renting houses they can't sell - certainly that's true in my neck of the woods. At the same time, it seems like the recently dispossessed would need to rent...though I assume many are contracting households.
picosec - I'll have to endure the embarrassment for eternity.
If that is your worst mistake your golden compared to me. I'm here to learn and I have no problems with looking stupid, just hopefully people will not realize I really am.
Seems the new musicians rely on lights and pyrotechnics and gimmicks rather than any sort of talent.
Same here. Somehow I missed U2 at Red Rocks back when I was a 19 and hitting concerts left & right in Denver. Argh!!!
Ouch.
I remember the first time I heard U2 on the local college radio station... circa 1981-1982 in IOWA where I worked midnight shifts as a young chemical engineer [we could listen to whatever we wanted to on night shift - not so during the day when the suits were around]. I believe it was the album 'Boy'... told my wife & best friend they were going to be BIG. I was laughed at ridiculously.
I'd have killed to see them back then. Not now...
"but what are the numbers behind this?"
this is somewhat regional, and very hard to quantify in terms of SFRs.
Bay Area rents down for second straight quarter
KK - if you can make your own beer, you're ahead of the game in my book.
"Seems the new musicians rely on lights and pyrotechnics and gimmicks rather than any sort of talent."
the music business doesn't exist in any form that it was in as recently as 10 years ago, especially the recording part of it.
U2, springsteen, prince, pink floyd - all had bad-selling debut albums and would have been dumped by their labels if they were starting in the past 15 years.
Bono is a bit too holier than thou for me now.
Re: the Duke of Con Dao dust-up a few threads back - I usually love reading his comments, but does he occasionally remind anyone else here of Commander McBragg?
Commander McBragg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Comrade Scott,
Anecdotally speaking... the rental market around the SFV is a wreck. I've not seen it so soft since moving to SoCal over 20 years ago. Rental signs everywhere, and in places I've never seen them before, plus some places offering deals that never had offered them previously.
U2, springsteen, prince, pink floyd - all had bad-selling debut albums and would have been dumped by their labels if they were starting in the past 15 years.
Yup but some of them became 'cult classics'... thinking of "Greetings From Asbury Park"... I had one of the early copies [bought it from a friend who worked at a 'head shop']. Again - I was laughed at when I thought that was 'the best'. By 'Born In The USA' I had tired Springsteen. YMMV.
sat outside and listed 'vicariously'.
I did that with the legend himself - Ted Nugent - who I had listened to since the Amboy Dukes