Ahhh ... "adventuresome borrowers" ... sounds better than gamblers or speculators. - CR
But not as good as loan fraudsters. I'd lay odds that I could find actionable misrepresentation on nearly every loan application that ultimately resulted in a lender losing money that these BK'rs took out in the last 6 years.

One lawyer I know, who does bk, was doing very well until just
recently. The people he's seeing now don't have enough money
to pay his fees and the filing etc. So all he's getting is a consultation
fee and a promise to come back if they have any money.

Experts say the growth in BK is due to the "mortgage meltdown" not high un- and underemployment?

I saw some puffery. But how fraudulent do you have to be to just
need to have a pulse?

I thought the new bankruptcy laws fixed everything.

Wha happen?

All related, Nate, all related.

Must go do some housework.

liz:

are you in your house?

then this IS house work

Am I allowed to be angry while I struggle to be responsible with my payment obligations and others walk on them?

Maybe even a little bit perturbed. Is that so wrong?

After U3 made a huge month-over-month jump in May (+0.5% to 9.4%) the increase is expected to slow down to +0.2% in June to 9.6% (maybe because of a sharp drop in NFP losses last month). The range of forecasts is 9.5% to 9.7%.

Then again, "expectations" have been proved wrong more than once - like just a month ago when U3 was expected to increase in May by +0.3% and instead it jumped up by a record 0.5%.

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Unemployment in the U.S. probably rose at a slower pace and the manufacturing slump eased this month as evidence mounted that the end of recession is in view, economists said before reports this week.
The jobless rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.6 percent, the highest level in 26 years, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The gain would be the smallest since November 2008. A survey of purchasing managers may show manufacturing shrank at the mildest pace in 10 months.

WTF? Duke just had a post up. Peruvian adventures. It's now gone.

C

post and pull cowboy

add to CR glossary of terms

I'd lay odds that I could find actionable misrepresentation on nearly every loan application that ultimately resulted in a lender losing money that these BK'rs took out in the last 6 years.

Rob Dawg,

I'd put the odds at 110%! Even higher than Obama's 105% LTV deal.

Speaking of Obama, the 110% fraud problem is no doubt why Big O told us it was NOT a time to look backwards.

Ignorance is bliss for those that commmitted fraud.

One more thought. Any system that must bail out fraud to survive is itself fraudulent.

Counterpointer, I deleted it.

best wishes

post and pull cowboy

With great effort, I restrain myself.

I should think through some of my terms.

With great effort, I restrain myself.

"pull myself" ?

I'd lay odds that I could find actionable misrepresentation

Yeah, but they have no more money and CA can't afford more jailspace (or anything else for that matter), so just what would that action lead to?

I don't get it CR....
it was an OT story about a Peruvian woman in NYC but compared to some of the stuff
that I have read on this sight on the last 11 months, please....
what kind of Nazi are you?

3 hours of work per week cleaning up parks forever?

Duke you're skirting Goodwin here.

One day closer to Caliboom Day.

I did see it this time... Duke, if you fall or fell for that line from the Peruvian person, hahahaha.

Here's an OT but related Q to the bankruptcies: Many articles now claim that banks are stable because they can earn their way out of this mess. Does anyone know if this is based on honest-to-god data or whether it's just assertions/PR? TIA

@Duke
I agree with free speech but come on, Calling CR a Nazi is in bad taste, brother.

Is the LA Times throw stones from a glass house. BK themselves

Anyways read the article and most of the profiles are CC debt

what kind of Nazi are you?

Hey now, you're the one cavorting with South Americans.

I have to pack books to take to the storage area. To make
room for my mom's stuff.

They are my son's books. Why didn't he pack them?
Good question.

this is mainly it....
before I left NYC last year I was blazing through town
with this 34 year old from Peru who bore a strong resemblance
to Catherine Zeta Jones facially....
....
Silver lining- great to pal around with as she was a magnet for both sexes.
Say, we'd be drinking at Schiller's downtown and both be vying for the
same girl. (very partial to blonds) "Hey, I saw her first" "No, you didn't", I'd respond.
....
She'd regale me with stories of NYC straight women she picked up.
Believed there weren't many that couldn't resist her, along with all the
banker types she fleeced with her tag along 'girlfriends' for the Champagne treatment cause they
thought she was straight.

CR - but, but ... I copied it before he pulled it...

Does this mean I can't re-post to make a trivial point about the original?

C

Does anyone know if this is based on honest-to-god data or whether it's just assertions/PR? TIA"

That's exactly how Greenspan bailed out the banks in the early nineties.
So it's possible in theory.

(cavorting with S.A. +5)

what's up with you CR?
bruised feelings because I gave you a hard time about
your 7 bar graphs?

With the fed apparently willing to print them into solvency, the banks really can't fail.

I'm gonna miss you Duke, then I miss having the flu every year but I still get the shot.

some of the virulent racial attacks you've hosted in the past....
and you censor that story ... guess I should have known,
edit....
yes, the Nazi thing wasn't so cool, but getting hit with a ruler
is a bit harsh...
I agree....
I saw a lot of coded speech on here that was transgressive,
perhaps Bill is a school marm, sorry...
if you ARE going to censor be bloody consistent,
that is one area that gets my blood boiling...

Duke, what's the point of posting stuff like that here? If you feel the need to post totally random stuff, start your own blog.

That's exactly how Greenspan bailed out the banks in the early nineties.

Really? I would have said the dynamics were quite different in the early nineties, especially after RTC. The TBTF problem was not nearly as prevalent, no?

Here's an OT but related Q to the bankruptcies: Many articles now claim that banks are stable because they can earn their way out of this mess. Does anyone know if this is based on honest-to-god data or whether it's just assertions/PR?

It is based on the results of Fed-managed stress tests and on the strong belief by Summers and Geithner that when the short-term interest rates are essentially zero, the traditional bank lending model will be hugely profitable.

Just as a reminder - given the surge in the savings rate, keeping short term interest rates at zero is equivalents to a straight subsidy of banks by the population/savers.

When a bank losses $50 Million, it is the bank's problem. When a bank loses $50 Billion, it is the taxpayers' problem.

lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 8:14 am

One day closer to Caliboom Day.

11:00AM PST, Wed 15 Jul, 2009.

Duke - let it go, man.
You (and I) do not want to create a precedent when CR has to defend his taste

L.A. is the See Me-Dig Me capital of the country, whose denizens benefitted the most from gross overall dollar increases in equity, who HELOC'd the most, and for whom has the most personal bankruptcies...

The TBTF problem was not nearly as prevalent, no?

True except. I wish I had the link but you'll have to take my word for it. Both James Grant and Perot were shorting Citibank big-time because of solvency rumors and their stock reflected it. There was a lot of talk about TBTF. Around 1998, I read a Congressional transcript which references the SECRET bailout of Citibank during the early 1990s.

I posted it a few months ago but here it is again - the Big Bond Blowout of 1994. I remember this really well beause, like Jas, I was betting on deflation and lost several thousand dollars when bonds sold off.

BW Online | April 18, 1994 | SO MUCH FOR `SMART MONEY'

So I'd say there's a lot of similarity except multiplied by... an order of magnitude.

I thought it was the 28th?

The banks might make money if they were actually loaning
it out to any significant degree. They aren't tho, are they?

It is based on the results of Fed-managed stress tests and on the strong belief by Summers and Geithner that when the short-term interest rates are essentially zero, the traditional bank lending model will be hugely profitable.

And I also agree that leaving rates at zero makes the bank more profitable (as long as the spread is larger).

However, it seems that everyone is assuming that the additional profit will resolve the insolvencies before, say, the sun burns out. More plainly, I'm trying to calc how much time till balance sheets are back in black.

Anyway, I don't know that there's enough honest-to-god info to perform the calculation, but perhaps I'll try with guesses.

The banks are adding fees, jacking rates, calling early payments not paid, all sorts of shenanigans. They aren't so much doling it out for rational purposes as far as I can tell.

Thanks for the link broward. I'll dig into that.

It would appear our global "recession" is resulting in more and more countries experiencing growing unrest. The economy is Iran has been pointed to as a catalyst for some of the unrest there and as of this morning the President of Honduras has been ousted by the military after trying to increase the term limits for his position...Is it possible, slowly but surely the peons of the World are waking up and saying enough?

1994 article sez it would be nice if Wall Street learned something.

15 years later, I guess it has been proved they can't learn anything.

QED.

Releasing all the convicts from the various Bastilles in California on July 14th would be an interesting prelude to drop debt day...

aterisk,
guess you haven't been around long enough... it is the weekend...
in months past there was a lot of semi-salacious talk... and then the
gun club stuff...
go back into the archives and check...
Bill goes Cotton Mather all of a sudden on me... that's just not right...
you could have emailed me, no?
that was just RUDE... if I wanted to I could have taken
your drive by videos and made them vis editing tricks into something
quite creepy... (they did have that quality in the audio)
...

11:00AM PST, Wed 15 Jul, 2009.

Dawgs are nothing if not precise.

Green shoot alert:
After 5 years, Mass. city to govern on its own
By BOB SALSBERG , 06.27.09, 01:21 PM EDT

SPRINGFIELD, Mass. -- Like many Springfield residents, Vera O'Connor wasn't about to roll out the welcome mat for a state-controlled board that had been sent to manage the affairs of the debt-ridden, scandal-plagued city.

O'Connor, born in Jamaica, had come to love her adopted city - warts and all - and resented what at the time she saw as a "dictatorship from Boston."

Five years later, as the Springfield Finance Control Board prepares to dissolve and return the reins of power to city government, O'Connor has come to accept and even appreciate the accomplishments of the board. Does she thinks Springfield's elected officials are ready to run their city again?

"I should hope they learned from their mistakes in the past," she answered with a laugh.
...

The Legislature and then-Gov. Mitt Romney approved a no-interest, $52 million line of credit to keep the city afloat, but there was a string attached - a long one. The control board, appointed by the state, would oversee virtually every municipal function.

The precedent is set?

Did they get all the 52m back?

false alarm people...

it was a Green Snot, not what we thought.

lawyerliz
i thought it was the 28th too. whats with the 15th of july what did i miss?
hi comrade kristina

Duke,

CR has a life, probably wishes he didn't have to police this section, maybe uses a keyword spider crawler to effectively delete comments and one word of yours got picked up by it. Let it go....He provides a great canvas for all of us painters to add color and knowledge which sometimes creates a work of art and sometime won't sell at a thrift store.

I'm sure he would rather be at newport beach or Peru for that matter then waiting for the racial epitaths of the misinformed. I know I would...especially Peru...
Chicama - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Epitaths==epithets + epitaphs?

lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 8:37 am

Did they get all the $52m back?

Read the Forbes article: "In January, Gov. Deval Patrick signed legislation to dissolve the board on June 30 and give Springfield 10 additional years to repay the $52 million loan. The bill also required the mayor to appoint a chief financial officer who could not then be removed without state approval - retaining for the state a sliver of control over its third-largest city."

Here's the offending line, Duke!

"along with all the banker types she fleeced"

haha

They didn't pay any of it back?

The Deval's always in the details...

Credit
if he uses a spider why doesn't he delete comments heavy with obscene language...
there has been much that I was surprised was allowed to stay posted... Dawg said
he had 45,000 comments and has only deleted 4 or 5....
hmm...
there was no improper of language...
... this makes me think a hit a raw nerve, it's the Freudian in me...
sadly, all those fleecings are boing paid by the US taxpayer

lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 8:41 am

They didn't pay any of it back?

I thought you knew how to play kick the can. Wink

However, it seems that everyone is assuming that the additional profit will resolve the insolvencies before, say, the sun burns out. More plainly, I'm trying to calc how much time till balance sheets are back in black.

Given enough time and enough government support, banks are certain to earn as much as it is required to cover holes in their balance sheets.

You are right, the real question - how much time is required. Geithner and Summers apparently are betting on the assumption that they have a few years and that in the interim loan losses will not capsize the banks.

Ah, the importance of the labor and house markets and the fact that the government has so little control over both ....

Duke of Con Dao (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 8:43 am
... Dawg said he had 45,000 comments and has only deleted 4 or 5....
hmm...
there was no improper of language...

I encourage improper language because my blog is different. As will be yours no doubt.

Duke: Chill out.

CR is trying to upgrade the comments to being a respectable bawdy house.

Hope he keeps the piano player, though.

FW

An everlasting gobstopper loan started by that hack Mitt Romney?

Pay it back on the 12th of never...

Duke,

True..I've seen them but not as much as of late. Do we really know how many comments have been deleted? RD is oldschool but I don't think he knows..
I enjoy your snips..not trying to raise issue with you just hope to see more posts from u....

Liz-coffee in hand and english sure to get better..little tired from drive up to Sonoma coast yesteday and had the best calimari in a long time in bodega bay....

So Dawg, how did you arrive at your time and date?

"However, it seems that everyone is assuming that the additional profit will resolve the insolvencies before, say, the sun burns out. More plainly, I'm trying to calc how much time till balance sheets are back in black.

Anyway, I don't know that there's enough honest-to-god info to perform the calculation, but perhaps I'll try with guesses."

Like my brother says. With markets the way they are, it's all about predicting how and when the government interventions will happen.

this makes me think a hit a raw nerve

Duke - you are making it a bigger deal than it actually is.
You've already spent x100 more time trying to understand and/or appeal CR's decision than he probably ever did before he deleted your comment.

I thought you knew how to play kick the can

Theory, meet Reality.

The Feds are repeating the 1993-4 action plan. But what's different this time is that the dollar is no longer supported by internal savings. So I don't look for a banking blowout (or re-fill) but for change in the foundation that they're manipulating. In 1994, we still had play in the long-term credit cycle with declining interest rates.

If they can't get average rates to keep decreasing, then bad things happen. If average cost of refinancing is rising, then the banks are fighting a constant battle to stay solvent. Could teeter along for 15-20 years like Japan with no clear resolution at the bank level. Where it will be reflected (IMHO) is in tax revenues.

Nate, you are probably right. I will have to start drinking more at the bars across from Treasury more often.

The Feds are repeating the 1993-4 action plan.

And who designed that 1993-4 plan, I wonder?

Hubris, Lucifer's favorite sin

In other words, i don't see the banks as The Point of Failure. They're a tranmission mechanism that the Feds have learned to manipulate and keep in stasis. The cost of stasis is altering Financial Reality and nobody knows where the DIff pops out. Don't think it's the banks this time, though.

And who designed that 1993-4 plan, I wonder

Greenspan, pretty sure. He talks about the de facto bailout in typical cloaked fashion.
I'll find the link and post it.

JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 8:48 am

So Dawg, how did you arrive at your time and date?

• Current accounts balance deterioration.
• 2 weeks after the Jun 30th deadline for passing a BALANCED budget.
• Political aspiration of the Controller John Chiang.
• Bond schedule.
• Legislature schedule.

Everything adds up to no chance of the situation lasting until Jul 31st as is commonly assumed. The 11:00 AM bit is just to make the East Coast news cycle but still give the White house a chance to appear in the loop.

broward: who was treasury secretary?

who was assistant?

Here it is -

FRB: Speech, Greenspan -- Rules vs. discretionary monetary policy -- September 5, 1997

"By 1993, this extraordinary velocity behavior had become so pronounced that the Federal Reserve was forced to begin disregarding the signals M2 was sending, at least for the time being.

Data since mid-1994 do seem to show the reemergence of a relationship of M2 with nominal income and short-term interest rates similar to that experienced during the three decades of the 1960s through the 1980s."


Translation - "I studied the Great Depression to know that banking failures dried up liquidity so our solution is to ignore the monetary indicators and jam lots of cash back into the banks".

Dawg, all reasonable data/assumptions, which probably means that there is virtually no chance of it unfolding in that manner. Smile

broward: who was treasury secretary?
who was assistant?

Exactly right. That's why it seems to be driven by hubris.

The man who saved the world - TWICE
TIME Magazine Cover: Rubin, Greenspan & Summers - Feb. 15, 1999 - Business - Finance - Politics

nobody knows where the DIff pops out. Don't think it's the banks this time, though.

My bet is that it will appear in money market or short-term bond funds, again.

Everyone is feeling safer and starting to reach for yield again.

When you reach for yield, then you take on risk which can surprise you.

The frowning people in the comic are the accountants. I'm still working part time on a BK. We let 100's go in the last few weeks; depressing.

One of the lawyers told me this one:
A creditor calls and says, "We didn't receive your last payment."
You respond, "Yes, you did."

That passes for humor in an empty 15,000 sq ft office.

Because they studied the Great Depression so well, Greenspan (and Bernanke) have avoided a repeat. However, we are now in the world of the Alternate Reality where previous history no longer applies. My interpretation is that we see a systemic failure which couldn't be predicted. Don't know when, though. I assume it will be in interest rates / dollar.

This is CR's house. We are his guests.

Some people need to remember that.

If you don't like it, start your own blog.

This country is still free, at least in that regard.

Hmmmm. I see Dawg is still picking on the banana republic of Massachusetts.

Hmmmm. I see Dawg is still picking on the banana republic of Massachusetts.

Bet he's homesick, except for the weather.

broward and I share many areas of common agreement

given the nature and force of what we face, the outcome will be recorded as a total surprise by the Summers/Geithner/Bernanke group

That man is richest whose pleasures are the cheapest.

Henry David Thoreau

Being that they are the gatekeepers and all of this is happening on their watch they HAVE to act surprised if they have any chance of surviving the coming token scapegoating.

Hoocodanode is very much on purpose.

the outcome will be recorded as a total surprise

I'm pretty sure that the RE bubble was a surprise to Greenspan and he stayed in denial long past you or I or many CR readers.
My percentage bet is that they can't control the reversal in the credit cycle - think of interest rates slowly rising for the next 20 years (best case scenario). Lots of blow-out takes place because EVERYTHING is structured around the declining rates which began in 1982-83.

I'm pretty sure treasury has faulty intelligence...

given the nature and force of what we face, the outcome will be recorded as a total surprise by the Summers/Geithner/Bernanke group

They will get surprised, and we all will get f*cked

JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 8:58 am

Dawg, all reasonable data/assumptions, which probably means that there is virtually no chance of it unfolding in that manner.

Thanks. I think... Anyway, the problem with all this talk about Jul 31st is the debt markets are going to all head for the lifeboat the first time somebody spills the ice in the first class lounge. Here's a little inside baseball on what's happening. It isn't easy to follow but things like reminders to Mello-Roos districts to report defaults and unusual drawdowns are ominous.

now unless I am mistaken Bill is trying to make money from this?
....
we are always talking about this CON and that CON and the like, the way I saw it was a take on the Sweet Smell of Success
someone like the Tony Curtis character playing the players... I recognize Manhattan is an unique place,
not called Rome for nothing... many of these 'high rollers' had the same problem as Mark Sanford...
....
I will never have a blog, why? at times when things are slow I can toss a few tidbits out there, much like you would do with a focus group
to see if the vignette vibrates. why would I be foolish enough to put any of my story lines on a blog... hey, you will see my best material
in a book before you see it here!
....

I enjoy the financial info and the comments. But notice, I never attack Bernanke, Cramer, even Blankfein as liars
and crooks cause I don't know. until I have all the facts I am agnostic.
...
and various people were asking for another story and i complied... I had just read Frank Rich's column
and perhaps the Stonewall story resonated. Bet'cha, if he were reading this blog he'd have a different take on Bill's
censorship. my money is that the Great CR is against same sex marriages... maybe not, but the quickness of his Delete
is a 'Tell"

Axis of See No Evil = Summers/Geithner/Bernanke

Rommney approved the loan but the current governor extended the repayment. This is not Romneys actions.

"This is not Romneys actions."


how convenient

I am not looking forward to slogging through another presidential primary series with the boy scout versus the deacon.

O! God! Save us from the born again.

In other news

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras – More than a dozen soldiers arrested President Manuel Zelaya and disarmed his security guards after surrounding his residence before dawn Sunday, his private secretary said. Protesters called it a coup and flocked to the presidential palace as local news media reported that Zelaya was sent into exile.
The chief executive was detained shortly before voting was to begin on a constitutional referendum the president had insisted on holding even though the Supreme Court ruled it illegal and everyone from the military to Congress and members of his own party opposed it.
Zelaya was taken into military custody at his house outside the capital, Tegucigalpa, and whisked away to an air force base on the outskirts of the city, his private secretary, Carlos Enrique Reina told The Associated Press.

Can we start a "Here's the reason why I'm mad at Mitt Romney" subthread?

All Politicians are A holes with a very few exceptions. Just put the responsibility where it is.

Can we start a "Here's the reason why I'm mad at Mitt Romney" subthread?

No, we can't because it leads to The Prophet.

That sounds like a perfectly respectable military coup in Honduras. Too bad Pinochet wasn't alive to see it.

Did you know that Lindsey Graham(R)- SC is godfather to Gov. Sanfords youngest child?

What does this have to do with eCONomics?
nothing.

In other random news:

Iran Arrests British Embassy Employees, U.K. Protests (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Iran arrested local staff members of the U.K. Embassy for allegedly playing a role in post-election protests, a move Britain denounced as “intimidation.”

“The U.K. is deeply concerned” at the arrests, which constitute “harassment and intimidation of a kind which is quite unacceptable,” U.K. Foreign Secretary

@ failure.
The Iranians could have just disappeared, er "extraordinary rendered", them instead.
You know, national security and all that...
Why should the USG have all the kidnapping fun?

Duke of Con Dao, until Ken helped out, I was close to shutting down the comments. you are correct - many of the comments were terrible. I stopped reading the comments, and would just delete any offensive one that someone emailed me.

Now the comments have improved significantly - thanks to everyone here!

I have no problem with off topics posts, but I'd like a few guidelines ... I'd suggest off-topic posts be about finance and economics (or closely relevant) during market hours on business days.

In the evenings and weekends, I think we can be more lax ... but sexual references are not appropriate. The top two complaints I frequently receive are: 1) the signal-to-noise ratio is too low on market days (this has improved), and 2) complaints related to sexual comments.

In my view, your story was inappropriate for this forum. I hope that makes it clear.

best wishes

OT: went to a condo auction in Philadelphia yesterday. Didn't make it to the auction proper in time, but hung out in the lobby afterwards listening to people talking loudly on cell phones.

This is the Murano in Philadelphia: Murano Philadelphia Condominium!

~302 units, ~110 sold until now, so they put 40 up for sale to get to 50% occupancy. Condo fees are ~$0.63 per sq ft, so $630/mo for a 1k sqft apt. Fire station across the street, adult movie theater on the next block.

Starting bids were about -50% from latest list price. Winning bids were mostly about -33% from latest list. Heard a guy complaining on his cell phone how a couple of units got pulled because they didn't have enough bidders. Heard another guy say that one third off is below replacement cost; don't know if that's true.

I'm hoping that will spur other condo buildings to drop their prices at least a bit. I moved here in Sept06 and there are many half-empty condo buildings sitting around in Center City, and no one is lowering prices. This is the first time.

Links:
article (today) about the auction (yesterday): Economic Realities | Philadelphia Inquirer | 06/28/2009
skyscraperpage thread: SkyscraperPage Forum - View Single Post - PHILADELPHIA | The Murano | 475 FT / 145 M | 42 FLOORS
phillyblog thread (currently down): http://www.phillyblog.com/philly/showthread.php?t=86975&page=12

I'll say it again:
Thank you Ken! for all your efforts in making this the best damn economics blog on the web.

There really is no reason not to file BK. The banks can't fail no matter how many bad loans they make. Party on.

Thank you Ken! for all your efforts in making this the best damn economics blog on the web.

... and Bill, of course

is insurance a good place to put your retirement fund, heard on npr today and was wondering.?

is insurance a good place to put your retirement fund

Google Executive Life and then get back to us.

HIG got a TARP last week, 3.4 Billion quatloos if I remember correctly.

Google Executive Life

All I got was Ken Lay's prison sentence.

we know about so cal BK's

anybody see same trends nationwide?

regions probably vary....

"Everything adds up to no chance of the situation lasting until Jul 31st as is commonly assumed. The 11:00 AM bit is just to make the East Coast news cycle but still give the White house a chance to appear in the loop."

It's as good an estimate as any. I await developments with interest.

There's a corporate sponsored good government "reform" movement in the wings that hopes to swoop down on the wreckage (I'm sure there'll be some) with sweeping revenue and governance changes for the state constitution. Can't remember the name of the outfit. Some of it makes sense, but some of it is the usual booswah.

One of the principals spoke to a local group about the need for a California flat income tax of six percent for everybody, regardless of income ("so 140,000 of us don't pay half the income tax"), with exceptions for mortgage interest and a couple of other deductions.

Well fine -- but then it's not a flat tax, is it? And some high-paid dweeb who buys an expensive house is paying a lot less than six percent. We need reform, but if you're not going to present it honestly you might as well sit on your haunches and chant "no new taxes" until they shut off the lights and all the cops move away.

Like Gov. Arnold's proposal to reclassify most fraud as misdemeanor, to save money. The LA district attorney pointed out that under those guidelines, Bernard Madoff couldn't have been prosecuted in California. So cheating someone out of a million is a misdemeanor, but having a pound of pot in your possession is a felony?

So cheating someone out of a million is a misdemeanor, but having a pound of pot in your possession is a felony?

Actually, possession of any amount of herb is a felony.

But I agree, Bob, lots of vultures circling that corpse...

"..........about the need for a California flat income tax of six percent for everybody, regardless of income..........with exceptions for mortgage interest and a couple of other deductions." ...............like three legged pirates, churches certified by the "What's Happening Now" Congregation, people with no body fat content in excess of 10%, no body haired individuals, and the exemption du jour - changed at will by the legislator.

--no body haired individuals--
I still remember when my brother who lived in San Diego at the time; shaved his upper body because "chicks dig it"
WTF?

Churches should have a maximum tax free limit in relation to members and the income. Not all of it should be tax exempt.

I argue that churches should be taxed the same as any for prophet business.

Do you really think the nimrods in California will agree to a solution? NOT! Stop paying the dysfunctional legislators and you might get some movement. They don't understand spending bills until it hits THEM in the backside fairly deep. Make them READ OUT LOUD on the floor all new spending bills and solutions prior to acceptance by a committee ......They CAN read, correct?.........I'm sorry, I'm thinking of the Federal House & Senate - forgive me for the oversight.

Come on BSR, they have important things to agree on.
Like honoring Jacko...

I agree, though, no balanced budget then no legislator paychecks.

Bob D-your not the guy working 3 jobs who won the lottery from Santa Cruz? Damn....was going to your CR party with proceeds...

Busting anyone for pot today is a crime..if your going to allow mexican cartels free ride to grow it in california..why come down on the citizens for pushing them out of market

Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 9:49 am
...
Like Gov. Arnold's proposal to reclassify most fraud as misdemeanor, to save money. The LA district attorney pointed out that under those guidelines, Bernard Madoff couldn't have been prosecuted in California. So cheating someone out of a million is a misdemeanor, but having a pound of pot in your possession is a felony?

Los Angeles could become the new financial center as all those banksters chafe under restrictive regulations that stifle innovation elsewhere.

DCD
might disagree but he has a point, the moderator was way to quick on the
draw... in an earlier thread line LawyerLiz and one other was asking about
deleted comments so he replaced them thematically... compared to all
the libel that goes on here... this place swims in cynicism and fingerpointing
w/o sold evidence...
cutting and pasting news clips doesn't take any special talent and neither does drawing
rudimentary graphs, for that matter.

odd time to enforce standards... seems personal to me...
it is the weekend is it not?

Busting anyone for pot today is a crime..if your going to allow mexican cartels free ride to grow it in california..why come down on the citizens for pushing them out of market

I Believe that's called bribery and corruption!

Los Angeles will become the new financial center

I corrected your spelling error.

"I argue that churches should be taxed the same as any for profit business."

Bad Idea - Remember the separation of church and state? They, the "non-profit exempts/churches" should be the only organizations involved with "charity". Keep government out of it.

""The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."

.............Cicero - 55 BC

@ Bag- cutting and pasting news clips doesn't take any special talent

You're full of it, bag.
Ostomy pouching system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

just catching up on the threads from yesterday.... what the hell happened?

@ BSR
There is a difference between charity and welfare.
One is voluntary; the other is not.

Or, allow anyone to claim they are a church and get a free ride.

@ basel
Duke is running around posting off topic stories and is calling people Nazis...

BSR,

Keep Churchs out of for profit business. This should also be considered and separation of church and state (taxpayers).

Why can't I claim that the true messiah is a six legged alien god from the planet BumFart and never have to pay taxes again?
Don't you dare question my faith!
Oh, only the official fairy tales get the tax break.

Chuches...the god I know doesn't seek dollars in plates....they are business's, ask the prop 8 organizers how shrewd and businesslike they are....

I believe Dcd retracted that about the Nazi thing, but my guess he was making a reference to the Soup Nazi.
... and duke mentioned same sex marriages, perhaps with the love-in going on here
why don't some of you marry just marry the guy?
All I see is cutting and pasting of others work under Fair Use with perhaps
a line of analysis. A well trained algorithm can do that, no?
Never thought much of mimes or hikers or compilers.

granting tax exempt status to churches actually entangles government even more into religion. On what grounds would the government reject a particular church's (e.g. "The Church of the Fuzzy Bunny's") request for exempt status? That it's not a "real" religion?

What Do I Know - The Church of the Fuzzy Bunnys

Churchs have abused a good thing and need reigned in. That is why a tax threshold would work.

ccbag-your not aware of what hiking is then? hard to get out 5 miles and back with 2000ft elevation gain in a day unless your in shape...maybe this is reason?

June 28, 2009

Around 3,000 protesters clashed with police outside a mosque in north Tehran on June 28, The Associated Press reported, citing reports from witnesses. The witnesses said police fired tear gas to disperse the crowd around the Ghoba Mosque.

I'm thinking of venturing into the other side.....charge up my credit cards up to 120k...buy essentials/commodities....then just stop paying. Then I'll spend these essentials/commodities in China Laughing out loud

Btw, I used to have an American express gold card, and I remember it had unlimited credit limit (But you'd have to pay off each month) I would imagine one can (many might), just before the system collapses, charge up insane amount of money and wouldn't have to pay it back. The problem would be the timing.

Just theorizing, of course. for now.

"I'm pretty sure that the RE bubble was a surprise to Greenspan and he stayed in denial long past you or I or many CR readers.
My percentage bet is that they can't control the reversal in the credit cycle - think of interest rates slowly rising for the next 20 years (best case scenario). Lots of blow-out takes place because EVERYTHING is structured around the declining rates which began in 1982-83."
Bingo and Bravo!!</B

You have it in one- the lurches are going to be spectacular.

One of the consequences of pushing massive amounts of liquidity into the system is the propping of lower interest rates, at least for a while.

A quite perverse consequence of it- one not easily predicted by standard theory. What we have is a massive amount of global investment capital here in the US markets blindly and desperately searching for return and safety. What Bernanke has done is give it a temporary safe haven in short term bonds at punitively low rates- using those funds to shore up the system and keep it functional here. The next problem is the dollar, and the dollar will only be helped ultimately by higher rates than the rest of the world.

Getting from our current situation to the finish of this crisis Volcker style is going to take years.

First you must have some inflation- when it finally gets to wages, then you start reacting to it.

Someday this war's gonna end...

omg. Billy Mays found dead at his home in Tampa.

Basel,
I posted that earlier.
Upthread.

rock climbing I have respect for, hiking is reserved for those who can't do... just my opinion...

Billy must not have purchased that health plan he was hollering about.

Karma comes around. Billy Mays always was pitching "3 for the price of 2 if you act now!"

"I'm pretty sure that the RE bubble was a surprise to Greenspan and he stayed in denial long past you or I or many CR readers.
My percentage bet is that they can't control the reversal in the credit cycle - think of interest rates slowly rising for the next 20 years (best case scenario). Lots of blow-out takes place because EVERYTHING is structured around the declining rates which began in 1982-83."
Bingo and Bravo!!

You have it in one- the lurches are going to be spectacular.

One of the consequences of pushing massive amounts of liquidity into the system is the propping of lower interest rates, at least for a while.

A quite perverse consequence of it- one not easily predicted by standard theory. What we have is a massive amount of global investment capital here in the US markets blindly and desperately searching for return and safety. What Bernanke has done is give it a temporary safe haven in short term bonds at punitively low rates- using those funds to shore up the system and keep it functional here. The next problem is the dollar, and the dollar will only be helped ultimately by higher rates than the rest of the world.

Getting from our current situation to the finish of this crisis Volcker style is going to take years.

First you must have some inflation- when it finally gets to wages, then you start reacting to it.

Someday this war's gonna end...

'"I argue that churches should be taxed the same as any for profit business."'

Doesn't apply to any Catholic parish church I know of. They don't make money.

I'd lay odds that I could find actionable misrepresentation on nearly every loan application that ultimately resulted in a lender losing money that these BK'rs took out in the last 6 years.

So...on an advertised NIN(J)A loan, to what degree is the lender culpable of fiduciary negligence by failing to even remotely do due diligence? To be sure, a lot of people fibbed; a lot of people (applicants) were told to fib by transaction parasites (originators) who were selling stuff where the securitizers were saying, essentially, "please lie to us, we won't be checking".

It will be interesting to see if these folks really are trashing their credit for the full seven years this time around. On the other hand, if the banks use the new BK laws to try to extract blood from turnips with deeply burdensome workouts, I suspect they will face regulatory backlash as the price of that pound of flesh.

Cracker also did Sinoloa Cowboys.

"......Why can't I claim that the true messiah is a......"

you SHOULD be able to claim that............AND the allowances that go along with a "NON-profit" operation. Government is not very adept at managing for profit businesses (such as banks, insurance companies, mail delivery, welfare, auto manufacturing, and other financial goods and operations) NOR non-profit ventures. Nor should they be involved in property ownership (for the most part). Most of us do not need a federal MOMMY. Those that think they do, should try GROWING UP instead. Get a life, quit whining about what other people do, have, or get, and take care of your OWN business in your OWN backyard.

My sermon for Sunday is now complete. Thank you for visiting, and contributions can be made thru this forum - and are NOT tax deductible. Wink

Uh oh. Somebody has a carousel, and it's set to 50 years old.
Signed,
Mr 46 yo.

Get a life, quit whining about what other people do, have, or get, and take care of your OWN business in your OWN backyard.

The Man speaks the truth, people!

Bingo and Bravo!!

Thanks. And for my next trick - when people lose control of their lives, they often resort to controlling other things. I read this blog because it makes me laugh a lot. Unlike most, I see a cross-cut of CR's traffic to my own, so, yes, I have an idea of who reads it. But I'm not under the delusion that it's All-Important to control the blog so that We Can Be Important People.

This decade is going to suck and not just financially.
It's going to suck culturally because large numbers of people will feel the need to "impose order" on others.
That's what happened during the 1930s, likely to happen this time, too.

Well and appropriately said. As one commentator said it is your house and we are only guests. thank you CR

Leave CR as is, nothing needs to be added for those of us who use this as information with facts, something that is sorely lacking in our Government and Press.

churches and credit unions-the new non profit organizations..

CCBag, I'll disagree as I'm familiar with some hikes that would test the best of rock climbers lungs....usually arm chair qtrbacks are not good at throwing a spiral...

CCB = DCD

ABC
Easy as 123
Simple as Do-Ra-Me
ABC
123
Baby, you and me!

"I'll disagree as I'm familiar with some hikes that would test the best of rock climbers lungs."

As someone in his seventies, I'm not interested in testing my lungs. We hike every day, at a tempo that feels comfortable. It's one of the best exercises and pastimes I know of, and one least likely to cause injuries.

Conjure Colostomy Bag, nothing personal. I delete sexual comments when I see them. I wasn't picking on any individual, it was just that people noticed the comment was gone.

best to all.

This thread is mature enough, and Mr. Pig is probably on his way so I'll pose an OT question that has intrigued me for some time (triggered by an article in today's SF Chronicle).

When borrowing to buy a home in CA, or even when refinancing. you "must" buy Title Insurance. But I've NEVER heard of Title Insurance paying out for anything. Anybody have any concrete examples of such payouts?

"You go, pavel!"

Thanks, HomeGnome.

Anybody have any concrete examples of such payouts?

Our builder went bankrupt in 2000 right after we took possession.
The title company paid out $40K for our house and approximately $1 million for the other 15-20 houses that closed.

I've done a bit of backpacking in Pisgah National Forest (North Carolina).
It's beautiful and reminds me that we Gnomes are fairly inconsequential in the big picture of time...

pavel, outstanding. exercise keeps us young! To each his own ... but I enjoy getting out and enjoying the outdoors.

best wishes.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if you bought a house on credit card, then stop paying and discharge the unsecured debt, and then keep the house?

Scrooge,
If enough people found out about that tactic it would be a:
Laugh Riot!

pavel-good for you....CCB was downplaying hiking...I think he's full of it....so my reply....all hikes are great....especially minus the phone...

Scrooge, just like buying a car on credit now at 125% of value....go for it.....

"pavel, outstanding. exercise keeps us young! To each his own ... but I enjoy getting out and enjoying the outdoors.

best wishes."

Best wishes to you, CR. Happy trails.

I just think it'd be a nice dinner conversation starter:

"Who did you do your home loan with?"
"American express"
"oh.....what's your rate?"
" 33%"

This thread is mature enough - now that is a very polite way of putting it. The meta and OT content is awfully high.

I am not gonna toss any rocks - I'm not without sin, and besides, I live in a glass house, but the S/N, while greatly improved of late, has been slipping in the off-hours, to be sure. I fail to see any reason for sexual commentary here. I love reading Dan Savage; if you want that kind of commentary, I recommend his blog.

CR & KCoop, thanks again so much for a wonderful source of great information. Yeah, sure, I know how to plot graphs and do regressions, etc., but I have neither the time, energy nor inspiration to really stay on top of every news cycle and do that kind of homework; I think a lot of folks fail to recognize just what a task this is. Writing a comments system is definitely non-trivial.

Conjure Colostomy Bag (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 10:24 am
reply ignore user
rock climbing I have respect for, hiking is reserved for those who can't do... just my opinion...

I regularly mountain bike Mission Peak in Fremont,ca It has roughly 2000 feet of elevation change in 2.75 miles. As well as sections of 20++% grade.

There are a couple if professional hikers with calfs the size of my thighs who beat me up once.

You're making some rather sweeping generalizations there.

picosec: It appears that title insurance companies pay out around 4% of premiums as claims. Most of their expenses are in research prior to underwriting in order to avoid future claims.

The ins and outs of title insurance - Jan. 11, 2006

I fail to see any reason for sexual commentary here.

That's why you have an "ignore user" button.

If the blog isn't funny, it's not worth reading.

There's MY complaint about you since we have to be in kindergarten now and run to teacher.

"pavel-good for you..."

Thank you, creditcriminalslovetarp. I started hiking in earnest eight years ago, after spending a few days at Walter Reed for an allergic reaction and then hearing warnings from the cardiac unit. Fortunately, we live near Rock Creek Park, where there really are hiking trails, not demanding but steep and stony enough for us. We miss only those days in which the weather makes it impossible, or there are unavoidable appointments. If you stick to it long enough what begins as a struggle becomes a daily pleasure. We find that it works wonders with a down mood or fatigue. No matter how tired we are at the beginning of a hike, we're feeling better than fine by the end of it. Highly recommended if you can manage it.

poic
20%+ grade?
Damn, that's dismount and carry time...
or dismount and push time...

@ Norka
Thanks for the link

Poic-that mission peak hike is mean..some similar hikes back in Sunol Reg. park too.

Bay Area Hiker: Home page breaks out some good hike per region...I was in sonoma and hiked the coast yesterday above salt point state park...awesome views and weather....

Pavel- I agree

JP said:

"...it seems that everyone is assuming that the additional profit will resolve the insolvencies before, say, the sun burns out. More plainly, I'm trying to calc how much time till balance sheets are back in black."

JP in my casual analysis, It is virtually impossible at this point to get "back in black" for any of the large banks unless their losses are written off. New loans must be made in a dicey environment to make money. Disproportionate amounts of new loans go bad and start the vicious cycle all over again.

TV pitchman Billy Mays found dead at Florida home

TAMPA, Fla. – Billy Mays, the burly, bearded television pitchman known for his boisterous hawking of products such as Orange Glo and OxiClean, has died. He was 50.

Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

@NorkaWest - Thanks for the link. I haven't read it yet but ISTM that 4% return is a pretty poor investment in risk. Life insurance companies usually pay out >100%. No, they don't make it up on volume, they make it up in investing the premiums (or have until recently).

I'll know more after I've read the article but it would be interesting to learn what all that investment in research turns up and how often insurance is denied or modified due to that research.

Homegnome it actually hits about 23% at the worst parts.  You end up sitting on the front tip of the seat and pushing up and down like a stair master.  I just crank along in 1st gear listening to Jimi Hendrix to blot out the pain.  Very meditative actually.

@Broward

That's why you have an "ignore user" button.

Yes, and I skip over most of that commentary - I don't even employ the ignore button, because I think free speech is important. I'm not offended by or uncomfortable being exposed to other's ideas (or their sexual preferences) either.

If the blog isn't funny, it's not worth reading.

Sure, and there's a lot of good humor on here too which is more on-topic.

There's MY complaint about you since we have to be in kindergarten now and run to teacher.

Whoa! I was just voicing my support for CR's preference to keep the comments more on-topic - this is a Finance blog, not a Sex blog! I've neither gone running to 'teacher' nor gone after anyone in the comments section for this content. I just skip over it - I'm sorry you now seem to think I'm some sniffing prude (you really could not be more wrong), but you're shooting in the wrong direction!

TV pitchman Billy Mays found dead at Florida home

Never heard of him.

Did he have a dog named Spot who appeared in his commercials with him?

NW

Credit,  a year ago after finishing my ride a spent a few minutes talking to a guy in the parking lot who had just finished running from sunol to that parking lot.  That's crazy !!

has night stand cowboy been deleted from the glossary?

TV pitchman Billy Mays found dead at Florida home

Please, let it not be an autoerotic Mighty Putty-related incident.

Poic,
My buds and I used to bike up in Pisgah National Forest (NC).
Nothing fancy, shorts, regular shoes, old gatorade bottle for water, shirtless...
Used to laugh our asses of at all the lycra clad warriors on 1K bikes huffing and puffing.
Style over substance.
Still remember when my roomie busted his collar bone about three miles out on single track...
Carrying both of our bikes the rest of the way was NO FUN!
Nor was the time I had to strap up a broken cable with a piece of my undies but you do what you gotta do...

tripped on his shoelaces, no doubt

I go there too, HomeGnome. Many parts of Pisgah - thinking Linville specifically here - are some serious business.

Also @Broward It's going to suck culturally because large numbers of people will feel the need to "impose order" on others.
That's what happened during the 1930s, likely to happen this time, too.

So, I don't know enough of the history really, but I had the impression that there was some scary social breakdown in the 30s, and I've no doubt Elmer Gantry and his Ilk (alive and well today, thank you Rev. Haggard, et al) thrived on that, but I also had the impression it spawned a lot of fertile cultural diversity - right up until our entry into the war. The really repressive backlash was the post-war attempt to put the genie back in the bottle, culturally.

Exactly what I'm talking about and expecting more of

Thought Crime Bills Threaten Talk Radio: HR 1966 has cleared the House

"the bill will allow the government to go after bloggers and internet journalists engaged in speech that may result in “emotional distress.”

Pushed forward by the scared mass of grossly indebted rock people who occupy what used to be the United States.

@ Zack
I usually hit the areas nearer to Brevard, NC.
Cold Mountain, Sam Knob, the Pink Beds (this is not a sexual comment)...

@ Broward
The Queen of Mean is kinda nasty and I'm holding you personally responsible since you provided the link.

Homegnome

Man you would laugh if you saw my gear now then.
When we moved to California I couldn't understand the need for Lycra or bike vests etc..

But a couple hundred miles a week is hard on the butt without proper padding and 90 degree weather in regular tops kills me.

But of anything clipless pedals and sidi bike shoes has made the biggest difference to my hill bike climbing.  There's no way I could do those inclines with anything else.

And I learned the hard way after getting my current bike that it's still ultimately the body that makes the difference.  I was hoping I would magically jump 10 gears on my climbs.  :)  

Anyone on hear done any biking in Moab?  The pictures of it look amazing

Broward

On social change

1931 Beginning of deportation and coercive repatriation campaigns targeting Mexican Americans. One-third of those in Los Angeles, including some U.S. citizens and Boyle Heights residents, are encouraged or forced to leave for Mexico.

"...just catching up on the threads from yesterday.... what the hell happened?"


First there was this big bang, then everything sort of spiraled out of control for a while, then the swamps dried up and some guy tried to pass himself off as royalty, but when the subject turned to Peruvian women with eccentric taste, CR stepped in and whapped him one up side the head. Then this duke guy tried to call CR a name and everyone came to CR's defense, and then the story teller said, well maybe a new subject is better, "Have I ever told you about the time I got a cherry phosphate at the Walgreen's in Mitchell South Dakota?"

And then everyone lost interest once they were reminded that that McGovern and Brokaw come from SD. Then Larry Craig stopped by but he was deleted too.

Other than that, it's been kind of quiet.

Poic,
Ah we were young, tough and a little high on all types of things so the gear didn't matter.
It was the RIDE that mattered, man.
IF I were going Mountain Biking still, I'd have to get some clipless pedals.
Saw my buddy clip a tree while dangling his fingers UNDER the brake lever.
Blew out the tip of his finger.
FingerSausage.

If anyone is interested here's a blog of my trip to Vietnam a few months back

  http://agxli.blogspot.com/

@Broward - yeah, I'm not a big fan of the ADL in particular, although I think the SPLC keeps it inside the lines generally. That bill is slippery slope, but I am skeptical it will make it past the Senate or past the SCOTUS following that. The trouble is: this is a dicey business...you have people like Billo who demonize someone like Tiller, and then act all surprised when some nutjob is incited to do something...and even the SOTUS limits your freedom to cry "fire" in a crowded theater. You are quite right, of course, that the worst damage is always done by these "best of intentions" types (the backers of this legislation).

volker-that was a good play by play...

Poic,
nice pics.

RE: Hate Speech
What a bunch of crap.

Dang it, pigged again!

1931 Beginning of deportation and coercive repatriation campaigns targeting Mexican Americans. One-third of those in Los Angeles, including some U.S. citizens and Boyle Heights residents, are encouraged or forced to leave for Mexico.

Hmmm...speaking of crying fire in a crowded theater...ISTR some right-wing media outlets screaming for just this in during the immigration reform fight just a couple of years ago...something about boxcars bound for Mexico? Even though some say I suffer from "Bush Derangement Syndrome", that was one bit of policy George Bush got right, and I'm sad it was one of the few things he failed to ram through.

TV pitchman Billy Mays found dead at Florida home...

Sham...WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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