Freddie Mac Delinquencies and Unemployment Rate
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sat, 06/27/2009 - 5:37pm (239 comments)
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Shhh.. you are letting the secret out.
Did it again, first.
so they're 90days dq when they lose their job?
Wow, now there's a nice fit.
Some of my clients could prolly catch up, if they really really really
tried. But so what?
If you are swimming with the fishies, 100k to 150k you will NEVER
catch up.
boop, boop.
"ruthless default"
Default withe extreme prejudice.
dafox. I'm not saying that at all. There are many other factors, and as I noted I fitted the two curves.
best to all
Earlier today we discussed some new research suggesting a number of homeowners with negative equity are walking away from their homes ("ruthless default").
CR, FWIW, I think "strategic default" is a better description of what is happening from the actor's perspective.
It's only potentially a ruthless decision if you're looking at it from the lender's perspective and, even then, it's just holding the lender to the terms of the loan, allowing the lender to take the security it chose when the loan was made.
I don't remember ever hearing anyone say that either Chrysler or GM filed a "ruthless bankruptcy."
Semi demi hemi quasi ruthless default, sort of.
I wonder if the unemployed defaulters realize that employers check credit rating.
Didn't hear any muttering when it was Ruthless Lending time.
Now would be a good time to revisit those loss rates suggested in stress tests but assuming more the more likely unemployment rates in the next two years
Not that I want to ruin CR's Sunday
In other news, water has been found to be wet.
the consensus seemed to be that it was rare, Cent. Though I do know a dog-walker for a Fed prez who got FBI'd.
sportsfan, yes, but until recently the only people that talked about those that 'walked away' were lenders ... the "ruthless default" term has been around for a long time. When I first read the article (Bob_in_MA sent it to me earlier), I told Bob just what you are saying - the name depends on the perspective (strategic vs. ruthless)
The only reason I added ruthless is because that is clear (walking away has been distorted on the internet). It is only ruthless / strategic if the homeowner can afford the payment, but chooses to quit anyway. And almost no homeowner will admit to this (for good reason, go on record and you might get sued)
best to all
On Things Ruthless: The whole 'moral hazard' meme, which is something that I still believe SHOULD be important to us as a society, has just been blown away by the greedy criminals on Wall Street with a cherry on top from Washington.
Not making your mtg payments is always easier than
making them, and here, all motivation has been taken away.
Default now, avoid June rush. Actually, I think it's a better idea
to default now, while everyone else is rather than get a loan mod
and just barely make the payments for the next 5 years and
THEN default, when (hopefully) it will all be over with. If you have
no equity of course. If you have equity, the struggle is worth it.
In 5 years, if you make other payments, all will be forgiven, or
almost all. Assuming we have a financial system 5 years from
now.
Short ruths.
C
Short all Moabites.
I ask myself, what would I do if I were that much underwater?
I personally think that people should repay their debts, unless
they can't.
I guess the answer is that I'd never get into that situation.
People repeatedly asked me why I didn't buy something in
Miami, as well as Merritt Island, and I just kept saying that
I didn't want to borrow so much money, as I would have to
pay it back. I would be ashamed to tell you all how little rent
I pay.
Moabites?
Being without ruth might not matter because Madoff had Ruth.
Now he doesn't. So he is and was ruthless.
Boop, boop.
The territory occupied by Moab at the period of its greatest extent, before the invasion of the Amorites, divided itself naturally into three distinct and independent portions: The enclosed corner or canton south of the Arnon, (referred to as "field of Moab")[5] the more open rolling country north of the Arnon, opposite Jericho, and up to the hills of Gilead(called the "land of Moab")[6] and the district below sea level in the tropical depths of the Jordan valley.[7]
Clearly there is overcapacity in ruth.
We must have turned the corner!
C
We all all ruth or ruthless now.
Is this like when Zorro defeats the feetless?
Ruth shoots!
The ruth is out there.
C
" dafox (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 6:40 pm
so they're 90days dq when they lose their job?"
Well, obviously CR didn't say that, and the chart's aren't inherently assigning causality between the two. But...
This does suggest that there's a roughly 90 day delay between stopping payments and official job loss numbers. That tends to say the balance is tipped toward defaults being more of a cause than an effect.
In addition, we should recall that the default rate of non-FNM/FRE loans skyrocketed before the agency loans did. By roughly what, a year or so?
I think it's clear to everyone that in the initial phases it was the defaults that were causing the job losses, not the job losses causing the defaults. Now, no doubt, plenty of defaults are caused by job losses.
Ich bin ein Ruth
the ruth will set you free
The Zorro with the sofa decorations on his sombrero, or the 50s Zorro
who I had a crush on?
Someone needs to add ruth and ruthless to the glossary.
It seems ruthlessness is setting people free in vast numbers.
the ruth, the whole ruth, and nothing but the ruth.
don't forget to tip your server.
Hahahahaha yea, the sofa decorations
Weather Helm, yeah, obviously there is some causality (and probably some each way at different points as you suggest). This graph was a request - and we know they are somewhat related (although the percentage of delinquencies related to loss of income isn't clear).
best to all
Yeah, simply doing nothing can be very effective. Like
not making payments.
Also, when arguing with someone--obviously in person--try not
saying anything. Hard to do, but just looking skeptical and letting
the silence ride can virtually force the other side to say something.
Eats ruths and leaves?
C
Hmmm, if there is a relationship, it may be that they know the axe is
coming and decide to preserve cash.
........ auto-parts maker Visteon Corp. will be replaced by GE R&D facility ........
........ GE Picks Michigan for R&D Center - WSJ.com ..........
........ anyway , CR , are you still looking at GDP numbers ? .....you posted a lot of tertiary issues ....I dont understand why you down grade this blog to chatting room.....
Oh, jingle keys, jingle keys
Jingle to the bank
Oh, what fun it is to hide
In a one horse open field.
I'm a Panda. Look it up.
. . . until recently the only people that talked about those that 'walked away' were lenders ... the "ruthless default" term has been around for a long time.
Sorry, took a few minutes off from the board to work.
I think your statement makes my point about changing the terminology. We've been using 'banker talk' for too long.
CR, I understand you're not labeling anyone as 'ruthless,' but rather using the standard term. Let's change the terms.
On a bias-free analysis, the lender has little or nothing to do with a default. Only the borrower can default. We should thus look at the borrower's actions from the borrower's perspective and label the action accordingly . . . a strategic default.
Whatever excuses the borrower may make for adopting that strategy might be interesting from a psychological or legal perspective, but the fact that the default is strategic is, as they say, self-evident.
Au contraire, the lender has a lot to do with the default.
A high percentage of those loans should NEVER have
been made. 100% loans should never have been made.
Pick a pay loans should never have been made. Most
neg am loans should never have been made. you have
a pulse, you get a loan, ditto.
Stupidly made loans went into default.
Quelle surprise. Non.
that was my point about ruthless lending.
Cool it Jay, it's Saturday nite!
Beats an elephanda, which they seem to have invented in Thailand.
C
I thought you were an artist, Bosch.
If you look at the famous Bosch triptich, in one small area one
of the little figures is shitting gold coins.
more like an incorrigible punster.
lawyerliz, the decision to default is the borrower's and the borrower's only.
We're not talking about people defaulting because they have no other option. We're talking about people who are capable of making the payment and choosing not to pay. We can label that action 'ruthless' or 'strategic.' I see the strategic.
Who cares what the loan terms were or whether the loan SHOULD ever have been made?
The decision to default on a crappy loan may be easier than on a good loan, but so what?
The decision to default in a down market may be easier than in a good market, but so what?
It's still the actor's decision either to pay or not to pay. The lender can label the borrower 'ruthless' if it chooses, but I don't and I don't partake of banker talk if I find a logical alternative.
sportsfan, I like your perspective of checking who controls the terminology.
I think the recent discussions involving 'jobless recovery’ also signals we're rolling down the slippery slope akin to saying ‘collateral damage’ instead of civilian deaths.
No economy is truly recovering if it is not producing jobs but instead simply generating paper wealth, or real cash wealth that’s limited to its upper classes.
And we should check our fedspeak as well: why do we quote BEA's ‘savings rate’ press releases when we know it does not represent actual cash savings that are accruing in accounts for HHs...it's far closer to a retailers definition of ‘savings’ as in “you just saved $40 off the MSRP" even back when HH were spending far far beyond their incomes. Overspending (indebtedness) by 600 instead of $700 should not mean or imply your savings rate has improved. Or am I missing something with BEA’s fedspeak?
"ruth" actually means empathy or pity. ruthless means without empathy.
In today's business world, who has (or needs) empathy?
"Look homeward, angel, now, and melt with ruth."
This is John Milton, as used by Thomas Wolfe.
sportsfan and Avl Dao both have it. So much Orwellian propaganda.
There are a very few clients I have who could be called ruthless.
I am not so sure that any of them could be called totally ruthless
Most of them are poor souls who never should have been loaned
the money. The lenders have taught the borrowers to default
as a strategy. Since they won't talk to you unless you default.
Look at Comrad Kristina. They ignored her til she didn't pay one
month, 'cause she had to pay real estate taxes, then they were
all over her.
I have no objection to the term ruthless. If Rich is right, why
should we have any empathy for banks? They got what they
deserve.
Ruth from the Biblical Ruth?
Most couples are two income ...
All it takes is for one to lose their job or get hours or bonuses cut ...
Elizabeth Warren has discussed the now dominant " two income family structure" at length ...
Avl Dao, good point. Is a 'jobless recovery' a recovery at all?
Unfortunately, I have to admit that I've frequently used "their terms' without thinking them through first. In a way it's a verbal laziness, but in another sense, it's the essence of communication to use terms in general circulation that are easily understood by the greatest number of people.
I'll try to watch myself closer and not be part of the problem.
sportsfan - a simple matter of situation ethics. Where it gets difficult is the socio-political interface of the assertion, or speech act. The speech act can be performative, qualitative, and value-dependent: "I hereby refuse to pay because it's unjust". And the speaker could maintain the position til ruth freezeth over. But the hearer may refute the qualitative and intrinsic value of the statement: "Oh no you don't, and no it isn't", or change the context to one which supports counter-measures: "Tell it to the judge, buddy". The actual language, ruthless/strategic, is not immaterial to the ethics, but may be trivial to the result.
C
It's a recovery if we lose jobs more slowly.
/snark
They are telling it to the judges and the judges are sympathizing.
All they can do is delay the foreclosure sale, but they are delaying that
sale for longer and longer. Now up to 5 months!
That's like a leap of 1.8% in manufacturing, despite a slump of 2% in same last month.
Aren't the banks still dragging their feet on foreclosures to avoid booking the losses?
Yep, Bosch.
I think all the delays area metering move to stop the free fall. Plenty of bad compounded by things like unemployment. I don't see a realistic recovery until private business has the needed support and customers with real money.
Well, come to think of it Bosch, I'm not so sure.
That would be somewhat rational and intelligent, and
these people are morons.
Tired Liz.
Nitey-nite.
nite liz
sportsfan - a simple matter of situation ethics. Where it gets difficult is the socio-political interface of the assertion, or speech act. The speech act can be performative, qualitative, and value-dependent: . . . .
Counterpointer, I don't subscribe to a theory of situation ethics. In my view, ethics are superimposed upon all situations.
However, I do agree that the speech act, as you call it, has profound implications and, in many ways, tells you more about the speaker than it does the subject.
The school of linguistic positivism, I believe it was called, involved a group of Anglo-American philosophers in the early 20th Century that seemed to define philosophical thought as nothing more than a sentential calculus. You are what you speak or something to that effect. I rejected their analysis back in the day and I still don't accept it, but I've come to believe that there are significant socio-political implications involved in the everyday terminology we use.
does Misean still hand about?
The grapes of Ruth?
There was a discussion about booking losses on mortgages, and someone mentioned that nonperforming loans basically have to get discounted. (Poster seemed quite astute and credible.) Banks would probably have to be looking a something else than writing down the mortgage losses like the book value of the underlying asset, or clauses in the securitization contracts if they're ...ruthlessly... not foreclosing.
hand=hang
Hmm, low "goal adjustment capacities" may lead to worse forms of depression, via Economist:
Premium content | Economist.com
So no, you can't have a pony.
C
Who is really watching what the banks are doing? our do nothing government agencies?
@sportsfan,
Now seems the right time to bring back my link to Semiotics for Beginners. Speech is just one way we use symbols, writing another, images and art another. All are symbols that shape our reality. Semiotics is higher level than linguistics. All symbols, speech included, have context and meaning, and what turns out to be very important in many cases is the difference between symbols, e.g. the difference between "ruthless" and "strategic".
got it, Nate.
Wouldn't be a do nothing gov if they did, would it. but you knew that.
Mrs.Madoff - Babe Ruthless
Now that is deflation! It has never occurred in India's post-independence history.
Indian inflation turns negative
BBC NEWS | Business | Indian inflation turns negative
Inflation in India has turned negative for the first time in more than 30 years, official figures have shown.
Wholesale prices fell 1.61% in the year to 6 June, compared with a rise of 0.13% the previous week, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said. Cheaper food prices dragged the index down, and analysts said prices could continue falling for about four months. It marks the first annual decline in wholesale prices since the government started releasing weekly data in 1977.
Comrade Coinz, now I'll have to bring back my rant about copper-plated zinc cents, silvery-looking dimes, quarters and halves and $1 and $5 still being printed on paper.
The overwhelming symbol from the government is that our money is still just as good as our money.
It isn't.
The tautology failed.
OMG, it's acceptable to advocate for strategic contract default. now i'm going to have to come up with a new outrageous position that people will eventual come to see as ration precognition.
Obama loses control of the house in '10. Won't be a Rep majority but lots of new faces and some disloyal old ones.
Counterpointer
Excellent article as far as it goes ...
It doesn't explore familial and societal expectations in the personal goal formations ...
sportsfan - that Sapir-Whorf stuff withered on the vine after a while; I agree more or less with your latter point, and I've just seen Coinz's comment pop up - perhaps what I was getting at is that the ethics are in contention, the communicated subjectivity of each is important, but the social-political context makes a huge difference in the way the conversation concludes.
C
/edit - crap, more comments up.
there was some discussion the other day about Freddie's shrinking portfolio, and some speculation as to why. sorry I missed it, but it seems timely now to respond since we are still talking about Freddie.
Remember that Frannie, as part of the conservatorship, are supposed to wind down their portfolios. See here:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/media/Credit_FAQ_How_Conservatorship_WillAffect_FannieMae.pdf
As far as I can tell, BHO et al have not changed the terms of conservatorship, yet.
Note that the portfolio shrinkage does not have to start until 12/31. So why shrink now?
Well, remember that Frannie hold on their portfolios both whole loans and MBS. And remember who the biggest player is in the MBS market today. None other than Zimbabwe Ben, who has been waaayyyy overpaying for MBS.
So, what Frannie have done is take some of their whole loans, securitized them, and sold them to ZB. And since ZB is overpaying so much, they are actually able to book a gain on loans they never thought would be above water (i.e. 2003 vintage loans with very low note rates).
So basically ZB is monetizing the portfolios of Frannie, which helps reduce their dependence on the government below what it otherwise would be.
Expect some news sometime later in the year that is spun as good news, in that "Frannie are going to need much less equity from the Treasury than originally anticipated".
That will be made possible by ZB printing money to help them unload their portfolios.
In other words, stealth QE, which seems to be ZB's new strategy.
I would not doubt he will find a way to take the private label MBS off their books as well, through some yet-to-be-announced program.
Sportsfan, stick to your guns.
I also challenged the comforting idea of an 'L'-shaped 'Recovery' as coined by Roubini. I can see an 'L'-shaped descent...we all just lived that...but there's not even a symbolic recovery or upturn in the letter L as there is symbolically in the letters U, V and W.
But it took me a year to realize that myself.
Liz, notice how almost no one is talking about jobs not even Team Obama. They seem hesitant to try and spin anything about jobs returning or on wages increasing. At best, they're trying to get us to swallow the concept of a jobless recovery.
Jobs? Not til this equation is restructured: GDP= 30% government & corporate activty + 70% debt-enabled consumer spending.
That debt-enabled consumer part is the killer...how to get debt-choked consumers to spend while their creditworthiness is sinking a bit and their risks as borrowers is increasing...and...as the collateral for anything they need the debt for is losing value monthly: student loan, credit card, car loan, HELOC, mortgage.
Counterpointer, et al.,
Leaving work as the sun begins to set. Fortunately, I live close by. Will be back with Jack in hand.
Zero Hedge: The Collapse of the Non-Backstopped Agency Market
Complete collapse in foreign interest for GSE debt: North American holdings of the latter have increased from 50% to 80% of total notional in one year!
sportsfan wrote:
Comrade Coinz, now I'll have to bring back my rant about copper-plated zinc cents, silvery-looking dimes, quarters and halves and $1 and $5 still being printed on paper.
The overwhelming symbol from the government is that our money is still just as good as our money.
It isn't.
The tautology failed.
Yes, you are right, and oh by the way, yes, and yes, and yes. Great examples.
CR, I'd never point the finger at the messenger
I just thought it was odd.
My second thought after I posted was the same as WHelms: theres a decent delay in the reporting of joblessness
"Complete collapse in foreign interest for GSE debt: North American holdings of the latter have increased from 50% to 80% of total notional in one year!"
Asian buyers have no interest at all in agency MBS or debt. They want full faith and credit, and the govt is not willing to provide it (i.e. "conservatorship" <> nationalization). Thus, Zimbabwe Ben has to print dollars to buy it.
Of course he is going to unwind those positions when he needs to. Who the hell he is going to sell to is another question. He is going to sell a normal year's supply of MBS? Assuming he can sell 20% a year, which is probably a limit without exploding the new issuance market, that is five year's worth of selling.
And with the low rates he has issued, no way there is going to be much runoff.
Does anyone else here have doubts about the reported delinquency rates? Call me cynical, but I don't believe much of what passes for financial disclosures any longer.
ghostfacedinvestah,
The new issuance market is the Fed -- there is no, repeat no unwinding this position. If the Fed stops buying then the GSE's stop lending, and if the GSE's stop lending then housing goes to zero, and if housing goes to zero then all the mortgages in the country are toast.
Unwinding? HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Setser has been following the collapse in demand for Agency debt for a long time now, or so it seems.
Ok, consider the semiotics of two statements which both endeavour to be positive, expectant, and convincing:
Which do you find more credible?
C
(It's a trick question, because the latter has a clip to go with it: YouTube - Big Stick - Dragracing )
Mounting Jobless Claims Force States To Borrow Funds
Mounting Jobless Claims Force States To Borrow Funds - Economy * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
By: Reuters | 26 Jun 2009
The government checks keeping Candy Czernicki afloat are fast running out. The reason? U.S. states obligated to pay benefits to the swelling ranks of jobless Americans are piling debt onto strained budgets.
Fifteen states have depleted their unemployment insurance funds so far, forcing them to borrow from the U.S. Treasury.
A record 30 of the country's 50 states are expected to have to borrow up to $17 billion by next year, said Rick McHugh of the National Employment Law Project, a nonpartisan advocacy group.
Obama is now using signing statements ... The War Bill ...
"Obama included a five-paragraph signing statement with the bill, including a final paragraph that outlined his objections to at least four areas of the bill.
President George W. Bush was heavily criticized for his use of signing statements, declaring he'd ignore some elements of legislation by invoking presidential prerogative.
The Obama administration announced in the statement it would disregard provisions of the legislation that, among other things, would compel the Obama administration to pressure the World Bank to strengthen labor and environmental standards and require the Treasury department to report to Congress on the activities of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
No, we wouldn't want to know what the IMF or World Bank is doing with our money ...
Heretic!!
Not So Green Shoots
Not So Green Shoots - CNBC
Published: Thursday, 25 Jun 2009 | 3:19 PM ET Text Size
By: Maria Bartiromo
One of the new terms to come out of the recession is “green shoots.” I couldn’t help but think about that yesterday as the Fed released its latest statement about the economy and said it would leave interest rates unchanged. (Fed Keeps Rates On Hold, Citing Weak Economy)
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke used that term not long after the March 9 stock market low to describe what he believed were early signs of recovery in a shrinking economy. As the market rallied sharply off its recent bottom, “green shoots” became an increasingly popular catch phrase, especially among those who wanted to believe better economic times were just around the corner.
Rob Dawg, there's a reason Obama's 1st cabinet appointment was Rahm "Attack Dawg" Emmanuel. Obama never stayed in the Senate long enough to really develop bonds that mean something when times are tough...sure everyone loves ya when you're the rainmaking (raised $600 million) annointed "Savior" of a frightened citizenry...and the head of the ticket on a solid 8-point-margin win.
But just as most Obama fans slinked and stayed quiet while he alone duked his way out of his Rev. Jeremiah Wright mess, look for the dems in Congress to do the same as the "Economic Rough Patch" just never goes away while other vexing problems accummulate and morph this year and next b4 the 2010 mid-terms.
Rahm will have his 'sheep dawg' work cut out for him.
Shooting stars hate the axiom...what goes up must come down.
Re: jobless claims
California is already over $2 billion underwater in their UE fund, expected to reach NEGATIVE $17 billion over the next couple of years. Sure, Uncle Sam, we promise to pay you back (with IOUs).
I wonder if the unemployed defaulters realize that employers check credit rating.
I will not be blackmailed any more.
I will not be threatened any more.
And if the United States is a fascist country, let it be spoken loud and clear.
And then we can proceed accordingly.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 8:05 pm
A record 30 of the country's 50 states are expected to have to borrow up to $17 billion by next year, said Rick McHugh of the National Employment Law Project, a nonpartisan advocacy group.
You can only "borrow" money from people who "have" money. The correct wording of this is; "A record 30 of the country's 50 states are expected to have the Federal government print up to $17 billion for them by next year,..."
@counterpointer,
your tube-top and drag racing video, using carefully thought out images and sounds, left an indelible mark. I find it credible.
$17B seems like a drop in the bucket...
I bought some December TLT puts... instead of holding TBT... I'm not sure those are going to end up kermit for me but not as elmo as holding TBT would be...
Oddly enough the above sentence would have made no since to me upon a few years ago; damn interesting education this has been...
Avl Dao
At best, they're trying to get us to swallow the concept of a jobless recovery.
Jobs? Not til this equation is restructured: GDP= 30% government & corporate activty + 70% debt-enabled consumer spending.
That debt-enabled consumer part is the killer...how to get debt-choked consumers to spend while their creditworthiness is sinking a bit and their risks as borrowers is increasing...and...as the collateral for anything they need the debt for is losing value monthly: student loan, credit card, car loan, HELOC, mortgage.
You're right. And borrowing to spend isn't going to cut it either in the future as ppl don't have jobs or credit.
Back with Jack in hand.
Hope you haven't named your "little friend" Jack.
Ok, here's another one, paraphrasing slightly: "Bartiromo says green shoots contained".
C
I wonder how long the banks can hide the shadow defaults? As UE climbs and more mortgages stop cash flowing, there must be a breaking point where even phony accounting and delay tactics break down. It happened to Enron, might it happen to the whole banking industry at once?
This is consistent with an opportunistic default. Imagine you actually have some savings and can afford your payment. Then you lose your job and know the home is far underwater.
Why blow through your savings much much faster? That's what many people will ask.
I also challenged the comforting idea of an 'L'-shaped 'Recovery' as coined by Roubini. I can see an 'L'-shaped descent...we all just lived that...but there's not even a symbolic recovery or upturn in the letter L as there is symbolically in the letters U, V and W.
It would seem that the "L-shaped recovery" is an internally inconsistent term. How can one of those even exist.
Wouldn't that just be an "L-shaped descent" into a lower elevation, Death Valley like in nature?
"And if the United States is a fascist country, let it be spoken loud and clear.
And then we can proceed accordingly."
~~~~
And how is that ?
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 8:24 pm
I wonder how long the banks can hide the shadow defaults?
Oh, you mean before the regulators call them on it and threaten sanctions? Hello!?! Calvinregs remember?
Barbossa: First, your return to shore was not part of our negotiations nor our agreement so I must do nothing. And secondly, you must be a pirate for the pirate's code to apply and you're not. And thirdly, the code is more what you'd call "guidelines" than actual rules. Welcome aboard the Black Pearl, Miss Turner .
Those underwater should walk. The only way forward, the only real way forward, is to clear unpayable debts. This means defaults must run amuck.
"It happened to Enron, might it happen to the whole banking industry at once?"
~~~~
It already happened to the whole banking industry once ... and FASBy backed down and loosened the accounting standards ...
It's all mark to make believe now ... but they are running out of rules to change ...
Those underwater should walk.
Swimming (out of debt) would be more appropriate for those underwater
Unemployment insurance shortfalls are one of the few places where the Federal Govt is likely to give aid broadly to States. It's one of the places where states have the best defense regarding problems not being of their making.
The UI funds are supposed to pile up money in good times, overdraw a little in really bad times and repay that debt when things are good.
Bosch, the credit part leaves me speechless. When I first got into lending, it was very much about the quality of the collateral. Outside of the Top 19 TARP’ed banks, most banks won’t lend en masse as long as the wide spectrum of available collateral keeps deteriorating or stays weak.
Recall how Geithner/Blair told hedge funds they'll guarantee any losses on PPIP purchases of toxic banking assets? Something similar may need to be done for most banks if Team Obama - which believes that "credit is the lifeblood of the American Economy" - wants to see a return to 2004-05 level lending. In essence, we the taxpayers are gonna be on the hock for the guarantees the govt issues on us....that’s not Orwellian,., that’s Escherian...cant really be diagrammed without making you dizzy.
M.C. Escher drawings
The Official M.C. Escher Website
No, we wouldn't want to know what the IMF or World Bank is doing with our money ...
It's all about power. Obama doesn't want his Treasury reporting to Congress on their imperatives.
The whole signing statement thing is also all about power and a much greater concern. Power, once granted or asserted, is very difficult to relinquish and even more difficult to be wrestled away.
Bush asserted it; Obama won't renounce it. We're stuck with it.
This was exactly my situation until this week when my wife, whose job was cut effective July 1, got a better job. So, we backed down from Defcon 2 to Decfon 5 and the financial disaster plan was shelved. I know many other people not so fortunate.
Something similar may need to be done for most banks if Team Obama - which believes that "credit is the lifeblood of the American Economy" - wants to see a return to 2004-05 level lending.
As if Greenspan never left the office.
Given the Fed's hand in creation latest bubbles the idea of giving it even more power is either criminal or insane.
Giving the Fed more power is just a prelude to Summers getting the job.
or both
TJ, no, but I've had enough over the years to earn a Jack Daniels ballcap and an "Old No. 7" T-shirt.
Giving the Fed more power is just a prelude to Summers getting the job.
I sure hope the Chinese will have a say in who gets nominated the Fed Chairman next year
Great, keep walking away from those properties. In these dozen markets, home prices are rising again... and for the savvy investor who buys to hold, the ability to cash flow these rental props is better than ever...
Home Prices Up in a Dozen Cities
Rob Dawg wrote:
I wonder how long the banks can hide the shadow defaults?
Oh, you mean before the regulators call them on it and threaten sanctions? Hello!?! Calvinregs remember?
Doesn't matter what the regulators do, if the cash flow stops on too many mortgages and they can't make bond payments or payroll. it's game over man, game over.
MrM, no kidding.
gne1963
The rise in prices is the median price due to higher priced homes on the market ...
All you news has been discounted here at CR ...
You obviously don't read the articles or the posts here ...
@avl dao - a constant looping riff?
Cue gratuitous rock clip: YouTube -
C
I suppose Fortress know what it is doing
It is just me who does not understand it
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Fortress Investment Group LLC, the hedge fund and buyout firm run by Wesley Edens, will acquire a $640 million Manhattan condominium project being built by New York developer Kent Swig through a foreclosure proceeding, according to two people familiar with the transaction.
Fortress bought the most senior mezzanine debt on the development and will take ownership of the property from a company Swig controls, said the people, who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. The deal paves the way for construction to resume on the building at West 57th Street, which features multimillion dollar apartments, and for payment of all construction debts, the people said.
...
Concierge service, a pet spa, Sub-zero and Miele appliances and daily cocktails are among planned amenities, according to the project Web site. A map on the site shows chef Thomas Keller’s four-star restaurant Per Se a block to the north; Central Park one block further; and Lincoln Center, Carnegie Hall and Tiffany’s flagship Fifth Avenue store within walking distance.
Available units range from a studio offered for $755,000 to a four-bedroom priced at $7.4 million, according to the Web site.
With GS and JPM saying that the first half of 2009 is going to see record profits, those banksters need to have decent shelter, don't they?
Sportsfan: It would seem that the "L-shaped recovery" is an internally inconsistent term. How can one of those even exist.
It is L with serif.
MrM (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 8:37 pm
Giving the Fed more power is just a prelude to Summers getting the job.
I sure hope the Chinese will have a say in who gets nominated the Fed Chairman next year
Bond Girl (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 8:40 pm
MrM, no kidding.
Why am I left hoping the Chinese have absolutely nothing to do with Presidential appointments in the U.S.?
@mmckinl,
I read the stuff here, just don't buy the bs... obviously way to over the top negative
Any of you see that Zero Hedge is soliciting evidence of finance-related fraud? Apparently they're overwhelmed with actionable information from industry insiders, and they're going to organize it and send it to people who'll do something with it.
This could get very interesting...
Not One Cent wrote:
Sportsfan: It would seem that the "L-shaped recovery" is an internally inconsistent term. How can one of those even exist.
It is L with serif.
I think we need a seraph.
wikipedia: A seraph (Heb. שׂרף, pl. שׂרפים Seraphim, lat. seraph[us], pl. seraphi[m]) is one of a class of celestial beings mentioned once in the Hebrew Bible (Tanakh or Old Testament), in Isaiah. Later Jewish imagery perceived them as having human form, and in that way they passed into the ranks of Christian angels. In the Christian angelic hierarchy, seraphim represent the highest rank of angels.
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 8:40 pm
Rob Dawg wrote:
I wonder how long the banks can hide the shadow defaults?
Oh, you mean before the regulators call them on it and threaten sanctions? Hello!?! Calvinregs remember?
Doesn't matter what the regulators do, if the cash flow stops on too many mortgages and they can't make bond payments or payroll. it's game over man, game over.
If the banks start seeing deterioration of their underlying loan values and remunerations they could always threaten to collapse the entire economy and force the government to give them... say... $700 billion to tide them over.
The US financial system already did this. Silly little rules like admitting to insolvency are no longer applicable.
Avl Dao: M.C. Escher drawings
That is the Mobius-Strip-shaped recovery.
I really have no idea what kind of licensed finance professional sends firm-related information to a blog. But maybe that's just me.
gne1963
Time will tell ...
From where I stand you are the one spouting BS ...
I believe I speak for 95% of the people here ...
CR got the whole bubble correct from the start.
You have no credibility ... none
"You can only "borrow" money from people who "have" money."
All debts are owed to the fed.
Seraphs could replace czars who don't ever seem to get much done.
Comrade Coinz: I think we need a seraph.
That was the intent of the 2008 election.
I really have no idea what kind of licensed finance professional sends firm-related information to a blog. But maybe that's just me.
Many of finance professionals lost their jobs and have nothing to lose or are just plain angry about the constant changing of rules and pulling political strings.
Besides, I wonder how the whistle-blower laws play out in financial services
Not One Cent said: It is L with serif.
OOOhhhh, I get it. But wouldn't that be a rather short lived recovery, not to mention somewhat diminutive in nature?
Green Shoots
At least we don't have to groan through "Jump Start" anymore.
"It's dead, boss."
"Well, whaddya want me to do? Jump start it. Push it down the hill, jump in and let out the clutch. Maybe it'll start then."
gne1963 - nice ad for Payday Loans on your site. Those DollarsDirect people sound pleasant and reasonable.
C
Hello folks, I am a long time lurker, first time poster. And I would like thank you for all the information and opinions you have shared throughout the years. It has saved me, my family and extended family IE... inlaws a small fortune by just understanding and being aware of the crisis that we are all in.
The name was given to me by some co-workers prior to the current problems in the middle east because I at one time grew a really crappy beard and wore a welding cap to boot. They even wrote a song but thats another story.
I don't think there is anything special about the Chinese per se; it is just a hope that the major players are a check on the process to ensure that someone doesn't get in that will manage the institution with short-term political gains in mind.
Why am I left hoping the Chinese have absolutely nothing to do with Presidential appointments in the U.S.?
Geo-Graphics » Blog Archive » China’s Foreign Assets
Ken Lewis was also hoping that the government would not dictate him M&A strategy for his private bank.
Golden rule still applies ("He who has the gold makes the rules")
@ Not One Cent, @ Comrad Coinz, @ Counterpointer....all good ones, guys (gals?)
gne1963, I look to the 1973-75, 80, 81-82 Triumphirate of recessions for lessons: the recession do not touch everyone equitably.
If you're in the "right industry", and in the "right geographical location", you'll be nonplussed that anythings wrong. Just dont live in the rustbelt or foreclosure -heavy sunbelt'; or work in FIRE, retail, transportation, hospitality, construction, exporting, or manufacuturing...and you'll be dandy.
U can be a DINK; 1 spouse in federal governt and the other in defense contracting...and live in Dallas...and ask, "what recession?"
A whistle-blower is someone who notifies the authorities.
Bond Girl. That was snarkalicious!
I do my best.
sportsfan (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/28/2009 - 3:52 am
Not One Cent said: It is L with serif.
OOOhhhh, I get it. But wouldn't that be a rather short lived recovery, not to mention somewhat diminutive in nature?
We can compensate by driving supercarriers around the world while wearing sunglasses and looking flash.
@mmckinl
Yes, indeed time will tell.
I have seen statements like yours for 30 years and they always make me chuckle.
Why try to attack my credibility when all I do is report facts?
I know where I stand with respect to credibility and really don't need your affirmations, but thanks for letting me know about the other 95%.
An L-shaped recession is a dead cat what don't bounce. at all.
A whistle-blower is someone who notifies the authorities.
Tyler Durden is talking about forwarding the information to FBI and AG
I am out, peace.
Golden rule still applies ("He who has the gold makes the rules")
That does worry me, but I still hope we have the balls to fail on our own terms.
Anyone in finance should know better than to share inside information with a blog.
I'm sure the FBI and AG will find him a very credible source indeed.
We can compensate by driving supercarriers around the world while wearing sunglasses and looking flash.
LOL. A classic response to short lived and diminutive.
Avl Dao,
I agree with your logic. I believe what we are seeing right now looks just like 1973-75.
gne1963 - I see you're certified by Seeking Alpha.
Sounds like Ward 81 might be the next for the cv... YouTube - THE FUZZTONES - Ward 81
But maybe you look good in orange?
C
Bond Girl,
Don't dismiss Zero Hedge -- whoever they are, they are impressive as all hell.
To gne1963:
Please enlighten us with the "facts." Don't forget to include those about changes in housing prices, collapses of major financial institutions, and an attempted take-down of the productive economy by friendly neighborhood investment bank.
I'll be quiet about it now, but I do not find that site impressive at all. I think a lot of the information is sensational and whoever writes it has a very imprecise grasp of the jargon.
Just checking in.
Huh.There almost seems to be a correlation between UE and mortgage delinquency.
gne1963 and Achmed, the consensus on this board is and always has been bearish.
Last time I checked, though, all viewpoints are welcomed.
Even if you put a "c" in Ahmed.
There almost seems to be a correlation between UE and mortgage delinquency.
It's all CR's fault. He made the graph look like that.
Bond Girl,
A strange statement you make:
"Anyone in finance should know better than to share inside information with a blog."
You are confusing inside information with information about illegal activities. The difference is not nuanced and the path to share knowledge of illegal activities is never clear in David v. Goliath situations
gne1963
"Why try to attack my credibility when all I do is report facts?"
~~~~~
You report invalid statistics ... not facts ...
CR has debunked the median price rise several times ...
... not accusing you of lying, just being incompetent ...
I'm sure the FBI and AG will find him a very credible source indeed.
After thousands of people lost their jobs, I would not be too surprised if some of them came forward with interesting stories
Boo! Bad chart pr0ns.
Because somewhere Maria dreams of kermit's green shoots and awaits the new trading day.
Nytol
C
Bond Girl,
Sorry you feel that way. ZH posts an absolute torrent of fascinating information, most of it from widely recognized sources and with IMHO fairly balanced analysis of same.
p.s.: Radio Zero plays great tunes, too.
Thanks Sportsfan, I started reading Patrick.net, It then led me to here and a couple of other blogs with people that have almost totally nailed the markets.
I have, like everyone else on these blogs have been trying to warn friends and family for the past 2 years of our problems. I am still at a loss to some degree as to what to do with my money outside of just holding on to it. But everyone here has given me one large amount of information to digest.
In his house at R'lyeh, dead Kermit waits dreaming.
A lot of what he posts in terms of "tips" is not illegal, just sensational. Like the AIG unwind thing. It is inside information, however.
I am also very unimpressed with someone who posts that kind of crap and it is not in a position to verify it or otherwise back it up with concrete information. I think most of the people who follow it are enchanted by 50-cent words, however frequently misappropriated.
That's all I have on that topic, thanks.
Swine flu seems to be just another flu strain, contagious but not too deadly
BBC NEWS | Americas | US passes million swine flu cases
US health officials estimate that at least one million Americans have been infected with swine flu since the H1N1 virus emerged nearly three months ago.
The number is far higher than cases actually reported to the authorities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said many cases were mild, although 127 people had died.
The CDC based its figures on surveys, rather than laboratory evidence, but the numbers suggest the death rate from swine flu is lower than thought.
What gold? What rules? The ponzi scheme has collapsed.
//"He who has the gold makes the rules"//
127 deaths out of over 1,000,000 infections. That is a fatality rate of about 1 in 10,000 infections.
//US health officials estimate that at least one million Americans have been infected with swine flu since the H1N1 virus emerged nearly three months ago. The number is far higher than cases actually reported to the authorities. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said many cases were mild, although 127 people had died.//
gne1963....I think you missed the larger significance of those 3 recessions I cited. they collectively represented a 9-11 year structural transformation of the economy...the kicking to the curb of the US' strength in manufacturing and the ushering in of the service economy, knowledge workers and even the Creative Class. The triumphirate recessions also ushered in a GDP 70% driven by consumer spending. What we didnt realize is that the Service Economy had a limted lifespan...seems to be 25 years CUZ it depends on consumers to go deep into debt. Wages & salaries cant rise fast enough to stimulate the economy via consumers' cash-on-hand due to the downward-pulling undertow of globilization...the aftermath of kicking our mfg overseas and also chunks of services too.
We were a 'penny-wise and a pound foolish' in thinking we can operate a 300+million-person nation via debt-enabled consumer spending; maybe Hong Kong and Singapore and Switzerland can pull that trick off over generations, but not us 'big boys'.
Until the evidence says otherwise, gne1963, I say we're in another structural economic change driven by Debt Unwind, and no one knows where it's taking us. It wont be back to the cozy confines of circa 2004-05.
The ponzi scheme required an increasing number of participants (aka baby boomers). Demography is a bitch! and add Global labor arbitrage to that...
//I have seen statements like yours for 30 years and they always make me chuckle.//
Bond Girl,
Words don't impress me regardless of the "price", information does. ZH provides -- or at least organizes -- information I can't (or otherwise wouldn't) find elsewhere. The information itself is sensational.
Some interesting flu stuff phished out of Argentina
“We are seeing the internment of young patients, among 15 and 50 years, with pneumonias, some that evolve quickly towards a gravity that stops many is unusual, in which the lung “catches fire” in a matter of hours”, commented doctor Jorge San Juan, head of the Department of Intensive Therapy of the Muñiz hospital...
“The bodies had the vísceras, meninges and the brain inflamed, a factor little common in which dies by influenza. In addition, the lungs were in very bad state, with spots that we have not been able to identify. We sent them to realise studies of pathological anatomy”, said the pathologist that it asked not to present his name until the sanitary authorities took note from the found thing.
Translation result for http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1144216
Never underestimate the workings of a doctors ego and quest for recognition.
//“We are seeing the internment of young patients, among 15 and 50 years, with pneumonias, some that evolve quickly towards a gravity that stops many is unusual, in which the lung “catches fire” in a matter of hours”, commented doctor Jorge San Juan, head of the Department of Intensive Therapy of the Muñiz hospital//
It wont be back to the cozy confines of circa 2004-05.
I wouldn't even call that period cozy. Maybe the post-recession 90's...
Doubly so for anonymous pathologists.
racial,
Read some old articles about crack babies.. or read "the silent spring" for BS about DDT.
Good night all
Well if CR is doing requests on Saturday, then how about "Melancholy Baby"? Or even (holding lighter aloft) Freeee Bird!
No need to go so far afield. The air is redolent of the stuff anywhere you go. It'll either be born out or it won't.
Bond Girl,
You obviously have little patience for conspiracies and the such; having worked at a fixed income desk at one of those I-Banks I can understand the sentiment. However, there are many perfectly normal non-Wall Street types who would very much like to invest their money in the markets of stocks but have of late lost faith in the idea of efficient markets (you know, the whole approximately-even levels of information among participants). Personally, I think that is a problem for Wall Street, the economy, and society as a whole, so I will applaud and support any effort to reintroduce that disinfecting sunlight. No one is perfect or perfectly smart, so sometimes we have to make decisions based on perceptions of intent and I believe that ZH actually has good intent regardless of ham-handedness.
I wonder if the Jackson coverage on cnn will outlast the Iran coverage, or vice versa. Never mind that California will go bankrupt in 3 days
jlr,
Illuminating a system that thrives on darkness and misinformation might kill it - ever seen a vampire flick?
That is gonna make a splash!
//Never mind that California will go bankrupt in 3 days//
I am still at a loss to some degree as to what to do with my money outside of just holding on to it.
Achmed, I would never tell someone else what to do with their money. All I can do is speak my mind.
If you were here Monday night, you might have noticed that pavel made a remark about looking into a mirror on society and I picked up on what he was saying by posting a link to Michael Jackson's Man in the Mirror from the 1988 Grammys.
I then took off on a mini-road trip and the rest, as they say, is history. But I still believe in what I said four days ago.
So I'll say it again. This is a concert version of the same number:
Man In The Mirror
"I see the kids in the street
Without enough to eat
Who am I to be blind
Pretending not to see their needs."
Second Derivative?
Unemployment Probably Rose at Slower Pace: U.S. Economy Preview
Unemployment Probably Rose at Slower Pace: U.S. Economy Preview - Bloomberg.com
By Shobhana Chandra
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Unemployment in the U.S. probably rose at a slower pace and the manufacturing slump eased this month as evidence mounted that the end of recession is in view, economists said before reports this week.
The jobless rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.6 percent, the highest level in 26 years, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The gain would be the smallest since November 2008. A survey of purchasing managers may show manufacturing shrank at the mildest pace in 10 months.
Lefty would have liked this news!
Bailout of U.S. Banks Gives British Rum a $2.7 Billion Benefit
Bailout of U.S. Banks Gives British Rum a $2.7 Billion Benefit - Bloomberg.com
By Ryan J. Donmoyer
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- In June 2008, U.S. Virgin Islands Governor John deJongh Jr. agreed to give London-based Diageo Plc billions of dollars in tax incentives to move its production of Captain Morgan rum from one U.S. island -- Puerto Rico -- to another, namely St. Croix.
DeJongh says he had no idea his deal would help make the world’s largest liquor distiller the most unlikely beneficiary of the emergency Troubled Asset Relief Program approved by Congress just four months later.
jlr,
I care very passionately about bringing questionable activity into the open. But I think there is an ethics to that too and that is sometimes lost in the blogosphere. If you are not in a position or do not make an effort to verify sensational information, you are doing an injustice to your audience. You can't just "put something out there" that you received in an email and hope that others will make that effort for you. Can you imagine if the New York Times did that?
Need I say more?
Retirement: Is 80 the New 65?
Retirement: Is 80 the New 65? - CNBC
Published: Friday, 26 Jun 2009 | 12:42 PM ET
By: Cindy Perman
You know it’s serious when the millionaires start to panic.This recession has millionaires in uncharted waters.
It used to be that when a millionaire walked into his financial advisor’s office to talk about retirement, all he wanted to know was: Will I have enough money to maintain the yacht-and-caviar lifestyle to which I’ve grown accustomed?
"Retirement: Is 80 the New 65?"
CNBC is preparing us for the 100 year mortgage.
Bond Girl,
Is there a specific ZH post you're talking about?
I'm just thankful to have the skills I have. I am millwright by trade but have been exposed to just about everything since I work for a non-union plant. They expect us to do everything and do it fairly well. I do quite a bit of volunteer work but I don't want to waste what I have on people that are selfish ( The Banking system & Wallstreet)
Real gold coffins would be cheaper. Let's bury them alive..
Companies under fire for 'golden coffin' deals
Companies coming under fire for 'golden coffins' - MarketWatch
By Matt Andrejczak, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- In a fresh stab at curbing executive-severance benefits, some companies have been under fire for "golden coffins" that pay the heirs of executives who die on the job unearned salary, bonuses and other compensation.
Next thing you know, it will be a thousand year reich.. say, how did that work out?
//CNBC is preparing us for the 100 year mortgage.//
"You can't just "put something out there" that you received in an email and hope that others will make that effort for you.
Can you imagine if the New York Times did that?"
~~~~
The MSM has been doing it for years for the gubmint ...
I give you Judith Miller ...
And just about every economist ... until lately ...
And now we have "green shoots" ... total propaganda ///
I am signing out have a good night folks.
OT, but if we're going into ZH territory might as well go whole hog:
Anybody been reading the deep capture website and their latest "expose" on naked shortselling in regards to Dendreon?
All I'm getting out of it so far is innuendo but no accusations(so far) except that a bunch of hedge funds were short a startup pharma company with a small float that almost put them out of business.
Except it didn't.
Yeah, it is kind of hard to discuss credibility and the mass media in the same breath.
Those are the characters that constantly quote politicians and industry spokesman (e.g., NAR) verbatim with no consideration of fact checking, corroboration, etc.
Really..
Eating fat causes obesity and heat disease?
Global warming is predominantly caused by human activity?
Ivy league schools produce innovation?
//Can you imagine if the New York Times did that?//
They expect us to do everything and do it fairly well.
As well they should. You are fortunate to be in a position to learn various trades and skills.
When people ask me "What do you do here?" my answer is always the same: "Solve problems."
There's no substitute for doing the job, doing it right and doing it right the first time.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- In a fresh stab at curbing executive-severance benefits, some companies have been under fire for "golden coffins" that pay the heirs of executives who die on the job unearned salary, bonuses and other compensation.
That better be subject to the estate tax.
You already get to set aside the first $7,000,000 for people who never did a damn thing to earn it.
There is a difference between trying to frame an article philosophically and fact-checking, though, and I would absolutely agree with you that getting-an-angle leaves much to be desired in the MSM. I've been a source for articles in the mainstream news and financial publications, and I can say they do have a pretty serious attitude toward fact-checking.
There's no accounting for taste, I suppose.
Zero Hedge?
Jon Stewart makes us laugh at news, political figures and the MSM. Is he guilty of subversive activity? Most twenty somethings name his program as their news source. Does that make him guilty of a crime for his derisive take on the system we live in America?
Zero Hedge can post whatever he/she/they feel comfortable with posting. If they cross a line I am sure the deep pockets in the financial sector will attempt to hold them accountable. Let us try and respect the spirit with which they operate. Sorry if a little truth is revealed among their alleged sensationalizing.
"June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Unemployment in the U.S. probably rose at a slower pace and the manufacturing slump eased this month as evidence mounted that the end of recession is in view, economists said before reports this week."
~~~~~
Do economists even look at the state budgets ?
July 1 is gonna be pink slip day 'round the country ...
I've been a source for articles in the mainstream news and financial publications, and I can say they do have a pretty serious attitude toward fact-checking.
Selectively so, it would appear. Too bad they don't do to everyone what they did with you, but then they don't depend upon you for their bread and butter.
For example, reporters rarely fact-check politicians, because to do so would deny them future access, and without access they wouldn't have a job.
EC,
I do not think that is a fair analogy. He does not hold himself out there to be anything besides a source of entertainment. And a damn fine source of entertainment he is.
July 1 is gonna be pink slip day 'round the country ...
. . . and the stock market will . . .
(It's getting harder to make sense of many things these days.)
Externalized Costs, you see that study a while back that showed a strong correlation between watching the daily show or listening to rush and knowledge of current events? I only endorse the former.
I only endorse the former.
Uncle Ar, that's because Rush doesn't do current events.
He just sells hatred. He has many buyers. He lives well doing what he does.
Bond Girl
Your take on the MSM leaves much to be desired ...
The Iraq War, the Housing Bubble, the financial crisis ....
Bank bailouts, single payer health care ...
There is a serious deficiency in your analysis of said MSM ...
well this thread is off topic enough for me to recommend that Obama Nuke gay whales for Jesus,Night all.
That article from Lucifer regarding the various tax breaks in the TARP is a real gut-puncher. The IRS nickel's and dime's American taxpayers; but if you are a company you probably have got millions in deductions and other breaks you don't know about.
At some point there will be new writers to the 6-pm-news and American history books...
sportsfan, i agree but his audience is (somehow) still way ahead of the average (J6P) american.
That's it Tom, drop a bomb and run.
I stand by my analogy in regards to the widely reported fact that people see him as a respectable source of real news regarding our country. You take exception to ZH for providing information that hasn't been fact checked or confirmed. A source is a source. Jon Stewart uses video clips and published sources to substantiate his take on information. Who really fact checks MSM? The Iraq War is our current example of MSM taking proclamations as gospel from our leaders. How did that work out in hind sight?
Bond Girl,
I read your blog and respect your position. I assert that we need all alternative information sources during this crisis. Should ZH cross a line and do harm they will be held accountable. Until then I suggest we give them the benefit of the doubt and let their site provide an alternative view of the financial sector. Akin to CR.
I'll just go ahead and apologize now for killing an otherwise good conversation
One wouldn't expect blog-readers / commentariot to have a high opinion of the MSM, right? Afterall if the MSM were so great why the hell are we reading and following the news via a blog?
I don't have a high opinion of the MSM, I just have a higher opinion of it than some blogs...
Bond Girl, et al
Didn't mean to start anything, it's just that I respect your opinion and therefore was curious as to your unexpected responses with regard to ZH. No apology necessary!!!
Bond Girl
"I'll just go ahead and apologize now for killing an otherwise good conversation ... "
~~~~
Great preppy line ...
That article from Lucifer regarding the various tax breaks in the TARP is a real gut-puncher.
YLSP, lot of good our "Just Say No" campaign did. They said "No," then proceeded to say what special favors they (i.e., their contributors) required to say "Yes" though some of the breaks appear to be the result of a lack of information.
Congress inserted the tax benefits for companies other than banks in a fog of confusion and panic after the House of Representatives rejected the first attempt to fund the bank support effort urged by then President George W. Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
....
Baucus didn’t know until months later, Sullivan says, that one of those added provisions would steer about $2.7 billion to Diageo over the next three decades. That’s because Diageo wasn’t even mentioned in the bill and lawmakers didn’t realize they were ratifying deJongh’s deal by extending the underlying tax policy that made the agreement possible in the first place.
People sit around and wonder why corporations don't pay much in taxes.
Duh. They make sure they don't.
Preppy?
YLSP,
No doubt. I had gotten a steady diet of news from all sources since I was a kid (being a voracious reader of same). It wasn't until the housing bubble started perking up so shortly after dot-bomb that I realized things were going on that were NOT being reported. That put me onto PrudentBear, which led me elsewhere, and, well... I found out I didn't really know much of anything.
I have a very, very low regard for the mass media. Sure, it can be a useful source of information, but credibility? You can't take anything they report without a huge dose of skepticism.
I'll just go ahead and apologize now . . .
I have no idea why you would say that. Everything I've read of yours contributed to the conversation.
I don't follow your blog because I'm not interested in bonds, but that doesn't mean I'm not interested in what you have to say.
Diageo is big enough to know what every word in every bill in Congress means to them.
The mere fact that Diageo is not a U.S. company seems trivial by comparison.
...but I've come to believe that there are significant socio-political implications involved in the everyday terminology we use.
"Preppy?"
~~~~~
It always comes as a surprise to those most encumbered by the traditional
ignorance proffered by their (mis)education.
OMG, it's acceptable to advocate for strategic contract default. now i'm going to have to come up with a new outrageous position that people will eventual come to see as ration precognition.
just because you were first with the concept doesn't mean it's right.
Just because he said people said it was acceptable to advocate doesn't make it true.
CR - I usually like your graphs, but this was poorly executed. Yes, UE is the major contributor to delinquencies (tho this time walk-aways are big,too). Go peruse the Freddie site under the economics pages and you should find info that tells you what percentage UE contributes to foreclosures (along with the big 3 D's - death, divorce, and disability). But in this case, the rise in delinquencies is a 6x over the same time period that UE rises only 2x, trough to pear. These lines should have very different shapes (slopes). One is more linear and the other parabolic. It matters because the correlation your viewers will inevitably draw - is that there is a one-to-one correlation when there is no such thing. If UE goes to 11% do you think delinquencies are going to 3.5%. Likely not!
May I kindly ask, since you are using single digit percents on both, that you re-draw to appropriate scale? Thanks.
That should read trough to peak. Don't know where that "pear" of knowledge came from...