Four Seasons, here I come!

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Greater depressions: social and behavioral trends of economic collapse
by Kathy McMahon

Greater depressions: social and behavioral trends of economic collapse | Energy Bulletin

Walkaway hotel empires!!!
yeah!

repost of pigged one to Lucifer- sorry folks!

Lucifer, the west has not won a real war since WWII because we have not had a total war of annihilation since then.

Even Korea, when it threatened to spin out of control was still just a sideshow to a cleanup after WWII.

Nobody wanted to fight a total war against America again- we proved that there is a threshold at which we will use almost any means necessary to win.

One of the problems is that in a multipolar world, there are too many overlapping spheres of influence, but with the history so raw and new, nobody was willing to put down the massive sacrifice to extend real influence beyond the natural national borders.

Both world wars had European powers attempting to do just that, in large scale. The result was between 70 and 90 million dead.

The next world war will have casualties in the billions.

Guaranteed.

These little post colonial police actions like Iraq and Afghanistan are just that- piffle in terms of resources and manpower. Sucks to be the folks who have to go out and die, just like it did in Kipling's day on the Northwest Frontier.

Same results, same stupidity, but not real western style warfare, unless you count what Custer did after the Civil War as warfare- which I don't.

Did any of England's colonial messes end up doing in the Empire? Nope it was the World Wars.

What would the casualties be if India decided to conquer Pakistan- not just beat but conquer?

That is total war, as has been waged before in Asia, and will be again.

Same goes for North Korea today- if the Chinese ever decided the have no use for that idiot in charge, they might find a way to get rid of him, meanwhile it keeps millions of Koreans either occupied or preoccupied with a moronic dictator with small nukes.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Hotel California.. you can always check in, but you cannot check out..

Everybody is walking away - homeowners, hotel owners, bank regulators, state legislatures

The federal government is filling the ever increasing void

Can you walk away from the federal government???

fark. i met someone working on a FC of hotel that was bought in 2007 for 34M and the amount due is $64M. Not bad for a little less than 24 months work. And this was for a 20+ year old hotel in a crappy neighborhood.

the west has not won a real war since WWII

The West won WWII? Really??
Does that definition of "the West" include the USSR?

WWII - the battle of the tyrants

MrM -

Can you walk away from the federal government???

Ask the South how that worked out for them.

So with 13+Trillion in losses, the Fed is backstopping everything under the sun it seems. Any predictions when the big O says enough is enough?
I mean he's taken care of the power brokers, why bother with the indentured servants? I mean taxpayers.

OT -
Man, just blew my Hefeweizen keg, oh well I got three others. Beer

Kahuna,

keep believing that..

You do not understand one basic aspect of a succesful war. It has to be winnable!

Tell me again.. why did the US not win in korea? They were facing peasants with chinese copies of weapons?

Or Vietnam?

Winning requires a few factors-

demography with enough spare young people.

overwhelming technological advantage.. Operative word = overwhelming

resources..

Absence of a viable fifth column.

The ability to withstand attrition. Do you think Americans would have joined ww2 if Germany had even a primitive nuclear missile that could hit the eastern seaboard?

"Does that definition of "the West" include the USSR?"

funny how folks forget - WW2 was fought over ukraine and manchuria, and the dying (if not fighting, in both cases) really started around 1930... while mussolini was in charge as of the early 20s... the us really only participated in a third of WW2 going by the timeline, and was nowhere to be seen at kursk

blonderengel (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 3:16 pm

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"Lucifer, the west has not won a real war since WWII because we have not had a total war of annihilation since then."

Typical "western" viewpoint.

Ask the millions that died for "our" wars.

Just the because the "world wars" weren't fought on "our" soil, does not mean that millions didn't die.

And your point is?
I would argue my viewpoint is not the typical western viewpoint.
I meant the collective western world- all who would fight a true hegemonic impulse- even that bugger Putin is more western than he believes.

We really don't count as an Empire because we just don't want to rule anybody who doesn't have a vote in Congress. Now our corporations are far more dangerous to the rest of the world than our governments- but those are private enterprises that every country gets to decide their level of involvement with.

Someday this war's gonna end...

I didn't know that there were any real hotels in San Berdoo or Riverside.
Are we talking about real hotels, or Red Roof, Holiday Inn, and other motels?

Hotel values are only off ~20%. It is hotel prices that are off 50-80%. All the hotels that were bought with conservative cap rates and reasonable assumptions prior to 2004 without re-leveraging are tight but just fine.

HomeGnome -

I just want to pay my home off as quickly as possible.

I did that with my condo, and now I'm not so sure it was the best thing to do.
But I did it mostly because I don't trust banks, and I really thought I would get a better return on getting rid of my debt than I would in equities. I don't seem to be a good stock picker.
And yes, I do AG also, just picked up the grains and hops for an imperial IPA to be brewed tomorrow morning as soon as I get off work.

Slightly OT: Hawaii is also having nice foreclosures. Here is a $70M foreclosure by BoA.

Nice place.

"We really don't count as an Empire because we just don't want to rule anybody who doesn't have a vote in Congress."

lol

U.S military actions just since 1890

without re-leveraging are tight but just fine.

Will they stay that way?

"Can you walk away from the federal government??? "

Sure. I am already on strike. Quit my job a few weeks ago, took out all my money from IRA/401k and US banks.

@ Kahuna
The 'keg spit' is a sound none of us homebrewers likes...
or is it because it's time to refill the keg!

I wonder if it is the 'smart thing to do' (paying ahead on my mortgage)
but I DO have to have somewhere to live and store my stuff.
Like saving all that interest too!

The hotel was previously known as the Kona Surf Hotel, which closed in June 2000. Its present owners acquired the leasehold title to the hotel in 2001 from the hotel’s former owner, Otaka Inc., through foreclosure after purchasing the first mortgage on the hotel for more than $20 million.

Leasehold estates. Hawaii property law is so medieval.

JP -

Slightly OT: Hawaii is also having nice foreclosures. Here is a $70M foreclosure by BoA.

Yea, I posted a link to the Advertiser story on it earlier today, had more of a history. I think there are a number of places in trouble here including the Trump building, I think a number of defaults are coming down.

Hawaii property law is so medieval.

Need I remind you of the origin for the word "mortgage"? Smile

"Hawaii property law is so medieval."

as is present-day latin america - same kinds of deals there for non-nationals

Winning requires a few factors-

demography with enough spare young people.

overwhelming technological advantage.. Operative word = overwhelming

resources..

I agree with the third factor, and I would modify the first one by saying it is the availability of young people and willingness of their government to get them killed.

But the second one? Come on - nobody had an overwhelming advantage in WWI or WWII.
Whenever the UK, the USSR or the US tried to fight local wars in Afghanistan, they did have an overwhelming technological advantage, but it amounted to zilch in their ability to secure victory against the locals - it has been the case over the past two centuries.

"but it amounted to zilch"

yes, and that is where it gets interesting. mao personally controlled, what 20K troops as of 1935? while fellow commie generals controlled maybe a total of 100K at that time?

a little over a decade later, totally in control of a nation of a billion.

Basel Too -

Leasehold estates. Hawaii property law is so medieval.

Kamahameha Schools / Bishop Estate I believe hold the title, they are slowly selling those off with first choice going to the current leaser and then up for bid. Lease hold is slowly becoming a thing of the past, it used to around 40% of the market if I remember correctly back when land was tightly controlled by the big 5 corporations / trust here. If you ever see a book called "Land and Power in Hawaii", pick it up. A very interesting read.

HollywoodHack,
and how many of those countries do we rule as absolute rulers today?
Just Iraq (well sort of, they did just tell us to start butting out) and Afghanistan (which still does not even have a functioning government in spite of our feeble efforts).
We are not an empire by any sort of definition- more like a Venetian trading alliance.
Your link is pretty funny btw: YEMEN 2000 Naval USS Cole, docked in Aden, bombed.
So, the fact we were visiting a foreign harbor and blow up is a military intervention? Did we invade like in Cuba 1898?
Um, so we still occupy Cuba today or even have any influence?

So many folks spend so much time on the old cold war agitprop. The biggest danger today is growing dissolution of nation states as the ability to self organize degenerates due to the ability for the smartest to flee to the west. A good example is Somalia- if the best and brightest had to stay and live in that mess, would they not begin to at least drag it up to the neighbors?

Mexico may be in the beginning stages of that dissolution- that should be of far more concern than the hegemonic demonic USA. Those refugees can walk here.

Someday this war's gonna end...

MrM,

that is precisely my point! Wars are winnable only if you are brits with machine guns facing stone age zulus. All other types of wars are essentially unwinnable, in that the "victor" is just a little better off than the "losing" side.

JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 3:27 pm

without re-leveraging are tight but just fine.
Will they stay that way?

Not a chance. Our bailout nation policy says the next owners of the bankrupt properties will be given enough advantages to enable them to undercut prudent hoteliers.

The biggest danger today is growing dissolution of nation states

Google: 4th Generation Warfare or William Lind.

Citizen AllenM -

Um, so we still occupy Cuba today or even have any influence?

Ahh, Gitmo?

Just like with homes and cars, we need a hotel tax credit. If someone stays at a hotel, they can get 20% back in the form of a credit on their taxes.

some here who wish to set themselves up as authorities should stop

Citizen AllenM: "We really don't count as an Empire because we just don't want to rule anybody who doesn't have a vote in Congress. Now our corporations are far more dangerous to the rest of the world than our governments- but those are private enterprises that every country gets to decide their level of involvement with."

Our army exist so that our corporations can extract anything that can be extracted and enslave anything that can be enslaved. It's a nice little military industrial symbiosis. I think one of your presidents spoke of it a while ago..

I enjoyed the comments regarding equity.I think it important to remember that equity is ALWAYS an estimate of an unrealized gain.It is not profit,ever.profits result from realized gains which occur when the check clears the bank.

I always found it amusing that Bishop Estate was once the largest shareholder in Glodman Sachs...

I hate bringing this up but...
Everyone loses in wars; even the 'winnners'
does it matter to you if your nation 'wins' the war but you lose a father, mother, brother, sister?
Doubtful.

Kahuna,

how many cubans are ruled by an american official? See.. that is what I mean.

"and how many of those countries do we rule as absolute rulers today?"

that list has some silly elements (i like the part about detroit in the 60s)...

but, golly - how many nations do we currently have troops stationed in? how would you feel about a chinese or iranian military base stationed at long beach or san diego?

Gee, Kahuna, a useless postage stamp coaling station being used to store worthless prisoners. I am sure that invading Grenada was a vital use of that base.
If we really wanted to get rid of those prisoners, we should just send them back to Afghanistan- that seems to kill more of them than anything when they try to get even for their incarceration. What a waste of time. If anything proves Dick Cheney is a moron, Gitmo prisoner fiasco is it.

Someday this war's gonna end...

@ Blonde
The military/ corporate complex is being replaced by the security/ corporate complex.
and rather quickly, I might add.

HollywoodHack -

but, golly - how many nations do we currently have troops stationed in? how would you feel about a chinese or iranian military base stationed at long beach or san diego?

We call them Embassy's.

If anything proves Dick Cheney is a moron

Do we really need more proof?

"Our bailout nation policy says the next owners of the bankrupt properties will be given enough advantages to enable them to undercut prudent hoteliers."

Prudent Hoteliers are in trouble either way, simply because there are too many hotels in many areas. The only hotels worth owning are the ones in areas that are attractive year-round, and are artificially constrained from building more capacity. My favorite example of this is the Carmel/Monterey/Seaside/Marina market, where it's difficult to get a room all year round, and even not-so-good properties are running above 90% occupancy every night.

I've always enjoyed my stays at the Ritz-Carlton.

Basel Too -

I always found it amusing that Bishop Estate was once the largest shareholder in Glodman Sachs...

Bishop Estate is huge, and they also went whole hog into malls, etc back in the day. Now you never how they are doing or what they are doing unless it's scandals with the trustees.
What was that song, "All I ever want to be is a Bishop Estate trustee".
Instant Millionaire, reserved parking on Keeaumoku Street. Ah, the good old days.

blonderengel, and the german army of today exists for the same reason?

Not really- our corporations beyond the Cheney military industrial complex find it cheaper to outsource invasions by far.
We have congresscritters to annoy anyone we use our military on.

Most of our military foreign installation program is a welfare program in disguise, as is almost all of the modern western military bases outside of a few useful places.
Last I checked the bases in Europe are about as useful as warehouse, maybe less so given the difficulties in getting a tank division out of Germany at the beginning of the Iraq occupation.

The only reason why we have most of the bases is bureaucratic inertia.
Why do we still have so many useless bases here?

Someday this war's gonna end...

but I don't want to "own"(only the liabilities of) any hotels...

Tom Stone -

I enjoyed the comments regarding equity.I think it important to remember that equity is ALWAYS an estimate of an unrealized gain.It is not profit,ever.profits result from realized gains which occur when the check clears the bank.

And as CR has pointed out a number of times, so many of these CRE projects where priced at perfection. There is going to be long and painful unwinding as reality is far from perfect.
I think I need to make a mantra of what you said though.
"Equity is ALWAYS an estimate of an unrealized gain.It is not profit,ever.profits result from realized gains which occur when the check clears the bank."
Hmmmmmm. Repeat.

"our corporations beyond the Cheney military industrial complex find it cheaper"

cheaper? quite the contrary. but i'm sure at least a few pennies to the tens of billions (hundreds?) of dollars found their way into DC's options values which were funneled into KBR/hal on a no-bid basis...

What about our mercenary army, Blackwater?, er Xe?
The real threat to America is domestic enemies in DC.
or maybe the Taliban came up with the PATRIOT ACT?
wait, don't ignore me...

We are not an empire by any sort of definition- more like a Venetian trading alliance.
Your link is pretty funny btw: YEMEN 2000 Naval USS Cole, docked in Aden, bombed.

The US does not wage wars because of insults or injuries. The US wages wars because it can.
It chose not to wage war against Yemen or Lebanon because there was no popular support.
It chose to wage wars against Afghanistan and Iraq because the population wanted the former and the White House wanted the latter.
I will not go into the Latin American history.

Take the very small (by historical standards) size of the US military, its huge technological advantage against any other Army in the world and combine that with the fact that most politicians and and most of the electorate do not have their children in the military (no draft) and you find that starting a war by the US has never been easier or cheaper. All it takes is the President's go-ahead.

How is that for an empire?

so whose getting the schweet deals from Hawaiian Homelands?

hmmm....lemme giv it a tink..da broke and disabled seestah got four kidz dats married to dabus driver.....nary a one ever left the island.

I shtay jinking, cuz...

"has never been easier or cheaper"

well, it is largely a video game these days. but that doesn't really help with the whole 'hearts and minds' thing.

come on, google or wiki:
4th Generation Warfare or William Lind

RFIPO -

so whose getting the schweet deals from Hawaiian Homelands?

A little off topic, but:
Most of the Queens lands have already been stolen, what little was left was put under the control of OHA to keep control of the land within the State powers, which promptly started stealing even more.
I'm a full on Haole who grew up here, but even I'm pissed at how this mess is handled. To actually legally buy Hawaiian Homelands properties you have to be 50% Hawaiian, there are not many of those left any more and they all have homes already.

You are welcome, kahuna.With the exception of discounted cash flow analysis Real Estate is pretty simple stuff.The patience and self discipline involved in making a buck in Real Estate is not so easy.

HollywoodHack -

well, it is largely a video game these days. but that doesn't really help with the whole 'hearts and minds' thing.

I know a lot of ground pounders who would not agree with that.

Hell, Iraq is cutting deals with oil companies right now.
Guess the oil revenues aren't going to pay for the cakewalk.
Thank you NEO CON CHICKENHAWKS!
and yet, we're still pouring billions into the sand as we speak.

Elephants and Asses
Trampling the Masses
Does it matter who steals from you?
Red or Blue?

OT: Birthday guests arriving within the hour for Gnome's Birthday Luau Party!
Gotta go...

One Matson union goes on strike; contract talks to continue today

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20090627/BREAKING01/90627001/One+Matson+union+goes+on+strike++contract+talks+to+continue+today

Man I need to run to the store to stock up on toilet paper and rice. Smile

Mr ku-

I know the couple that I just described, and they are buying..

An illiterate captured serf on the dole and a working Ralph Cramdown on Oahu.......the Office of Hawaiian Homelands is excercising classic rent seeking behavior as the "second derivative of the qualifying % is reduced" capturing more rent.

ground troops are a quaint, expensive liability

Tom Stone -

Real Estate is pretty simple stuff.The patience and self discipline involved in making a buck in Real Estate is not so easy.

It tends to give me major headaches.
It seems like most of the information is hidden and only shared within the secret society, which allows blatant lies, fraud and abuse to occur, then get a skilled liar, I mean spokesman to torture the data to make it look good.
In no way do I even understand half of what people talk about on CR, but I'm here to learn, and it is helping with my cognitive dissonance when I look at what is being put out by the local rea-lie-tors.
OK, I'm getting very tired now and got a long 12 hour shift coming up.
Thank you all for putting up with me.

HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 4:07 pm

ground troops are a quaint, expensive liability

Not as quaint nor as expensive as manned aircraft.

hack,can you be a little more subtle when trying to provoke the commentariat?

"Not as quaint nor as expensive as manned aircraft. "

agreed, and that goes triple for manned spacecraft, which is also stupid

RFIPO -

.....the Office of Hawaiian Homelands is excercising classic rent seeking behavior as the "second derivative of the qualifying % is reduced" capturing more rent.

The only thing that really impresses me about OHA is that they get away with it. Along with so many others.

sorry, tom. i would be more on topic, but there's just not much to say. hotels are one of the more screwed components to a deeply screwed RE universe. in fact, they occupy a super-screwed nexus between tourism, business travel, and generally fucked conditions in RE.

really, not much to say.

HollywoodHack -

ground troops are a quaint, expensive liability

I agree, but TPTB still love to use and abuse them.

well, kauai is probably one of the most incestuous, low-volume, idiosyncratic RE markets in the world. also contains the wettest place in the world, nice place.

Kahuna,there is significant and unnecessary information asymettry in real estate...but NO ONE has good numbers.I am a licensed broker and I can give you an educated guess....that's all.

HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 4:11 pm

"Not as quaint nor as expensive as manned aircraft. "
agreed, and that goes triple for manned spacecraft, which is also stupid

For basic science or defense yes but those aren't the only reasons to go into space.

"...and abuse them. "

my cousin, who was in a bradley in desert storm (I) and half lost his mind, actually gets upwards of 50K a year now that the VA and SS has kicked in. too bad the current batch of nutcases will be unlikely to receive such generosity. he's one of the more successful people in his community with that package.

"those aren't the only reasons to go into space. "

i do it to stop the voices

"in fact, they occupy a super-screwed nexus between tourism, business travel, and generally fucked conditions in RE."

Really, how many ways are there to say: "we're screwed"?
And superlatives fail me, as well, when it comes to the hotel/motel business.

"And superlatives fail me, as well"

maybe those mini-office-parks off the 15 which used to contain nothing but realtors, developers and their ilk are actually worse off than the hotel 100 yards up the freeway. maybe.

The hotel in Balto we stayed at seemed to have a reasonable
number of people. But maybe my standards are getting low.

Tom Stone -

A year ago they were saying, buy now or be priced out of the market. Then the local RE mantra was a permanent plateau. Last I heard they are still holding on a -3% drop and I think the last numbers were -13% YoY.
Now its just dead silence and I still hear people saying "It can't happen here", that is when I chug my beer, and move to another seat before I end up doing some damage.

breaking news from WSJ

GM has agreed to assume legal responsibility for injuries drivers suffer from vehicle defects after the auto maker emerges from bankruptcy protection.
Of course, Chryler denied successor liability.

I have found that the only people more obfuscated than RE agents, are life insurance salesmen using the title of Financial advisor's. With those I actually do damage.

On the topic of the ease of entering a war...

After Vietnam, many generals were upset with Johnson and Nixon for not mobilizing the reserves and instead relying on the draft to fill the ranks. They thought it sheltered much of the nation from suffering casualties. As a result, they have structured the military such that it is impossible to start a large war without mobilizing huge numbers of guardsmen and reservists; most of the construction/engineering units are in the reserves, as well as military police, motor transport and airlift. Thus, casualties will be borne not only by culturally and geographically isolate communities like Fayateville NC, but by units spread throughout the country. For proof, go through the lists:

Forces: U.S. & Coalition/Casualties - Special Reports

Enduring Freedom Casualties - Special Reports

Just thought you'd like to know that many people in the highest reaches of the military share the concern that it is too easy for a president to send troops to war.

Climate Vote Shows White House Still Really Knows How To Work The Hill | Capital Gains and Games

via marginal revolution from the self-evident link....

why have I been positioning for this legislation for over a year, and its coming in, in about 90 days?
Why have I been following this particular event?
The bills gonna stall before Recess, but before the session convenes in the fall. I will be all in.

OFF TOPIC: There is an ad (that many consider a scam) that is apparently showing up from "Miami Gazette news". I'm trying to figure out how to block it ... sorry for the inconvenience.

best to all

breaking news from WSJ

GM has agreed to assume legal responsibility for injuries drivers suffer from vehicle defects after the auto maker emerges from bankruptcy protection.

That's great news. Props to Steve Jakubowski, et al., for calling them out on that issue.

Credit to CR, also, for publicizing his efforts: More GM Bankruptcy

I'd like to take some credit for my "Trillions for the bankers; food stamps for penniless cripples," but, frankly, it doesn't count as a legal theory and doesn't have the ring of a rallying cry that anyone else would repeat.

Still, I'm Smile and of course hoping the 'breaking news' is accurately reported.

sportsfan, I was hoping Steve (the bankruptcy lawyer) would post or send me something. It does look like a win for his side

best wishes

Kauai_Kahuna wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 4:24 pm

I have found that the only people more obfuscated than RE agents, are life insurance salesmen using the title of Financial advisor's. With those I actually do damage.

I have one two doors down. He deemed me immune to his boojoo when he found out a close friend is a commercial lines underwriter and mom was an chief officer for a state farm regional office.

CR, the note from Basel Too suggests that GM's acquiesence is part of a compromise. It certainly didn't come from any ruling by the court on a weekend.

Under those circumstances, I wouldn't expect Steve to communicate with outsiders until the papers are signed.

You know, when is a deal a done deal?

I'd have to say it depends on the hotel. I've been looking into booking a room during the crush around St Helena and they appear to be doing fine demmit >; )

sportsfan, now that I've read the article - this only covers FUTURE accident victims - so Steve will probably not be happy.

best wishes

CR is quick. Had it on the tip of my cursor!

There is an ad (that many consider a scam) that is apparently showing up
Darn it. And here I thought my financial worries were over. Now I have to find out how that housewife makes 120K in her spare time,... all from home. How come this financial blog doesn't teach us these simple money making skills, huh?

CR, sorry to hear that. My fallback position is that Steve made a really good record in the trial court.

I would expect the appeals to take years. There will be some folks in wheelchairs or bedbound that will literally have nothing else to do but fight it as long as their lawyers are willing to keep the issue alive.

Food stamps for penniless cripples who were unlucky enough to be hurt on the wrong day by a defective product.

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