gabyjan...
what book are you talking about... Cold?
....
yeah, that's some graph... burnside saying we had that here first?
esp. the age of new homes...
how many users you see on-line... number seems small
guess everyone was up for the Jackson last night
"Science-based" article from Scientific American about the Bubble but mostly about psychology and sentiment with no mention of the mathematics of fractional reserve lending, exponential functional of interest or the empirical proof of the K-wave. The magazine's name is ironically appropriate in a disquieting way.
Hey, stop complaining about British humor.
Don't you like this piece from The Guardian? It took Wall Street time to warm up to Bernanke. Initially, they feared his academic background meant he was too removed from financial markets to handle the job.
Three years and trillions of dollars later, that tune has changed.
"His track record overall has been excellent," said David Dietze, chief investment strategist at Point View Financial Services in Summit, New Jersey.
Oh Larry Yun
What will you tell us this time
You’re only dancing on this earth for a short while
And though American Dreams may toss and turn you now
They will vanish away like David Lereah’s
Dreams blown, fading up to the sky
And though you want the market to last forever
You know it never will
You know it never will
And the collapse make the good buys harder still
Oh Larry Yun
What will you tell us this time
There’ll never be a better chance to mess with your mind
And if you want this world to see a bettor day
Will you carry the words of loan with you
Will you ride the great white elephant into foreclosure
And though you want the market to last forever
You know it never will
You know it never will
And the collapse makes the good buys harder still
Oh Larry Yun
What will you tell us this time
You’re only dancing on this earth for a short while
Oh Larry Yun
What will you tell us this time?
did anyone see this in the Bits section of the Times:
...
"The Netflix Prize contest has been hailed as prime example of “prize economics” and the crowdsourcing of innovation. Prize economics refers to running a contest to generate a new innovation at less cost than an in-house research and development effort, and crowd-sourcing refers to using the proverbial wisdom of crowds to accomplish a task. Netflix has said that $1 million would be a bargain price for an improved recommendation engine, which would increase customer satisfaction and generate more movie rental business."
here is one criticism:
Tens of millions of dollars of effort have been invested by contestants in this contest. While this contest made excellent sense for Netflix, it made little economic sense for most of the participants. Even for Netflix there is an anti-climactic aspect since from what we know of the winning algorithms the approach is unusable in the Netflix business.
I argued with the Anarcho-Capitalists for years before I realized that it's a religion, not an economic theory.
Same it is true about its mirror-image, Anarcho-Syndicalism.
The more bizarre the underpinning logic is, the stronger they believe - awestruck by the power of their beliefs over the logic and evidence
Mish gets a bit mixed up when he thinks about deflation for one, vs deflation for the masses.
For example, for me, renting, saving, no debt, I like deflation. A lot. However, I wont like it if it continues to the point where my job disappears. The key is, who gets to maintain their income in deflation (eventually, fewer and fewer). And whose assets go poof (almost everbodys).
On the other hand, rampant inflation, Id kind of hate, just as I HAVE hated it the past few years, since my income doesnt keep up, all my costs go up, and assets run away from me while I try to save for them - and the one asset, equities that I get to participate in the inflation of, easily reverses, wiping out all my gains. And of course, in rampant inflation, debtors win, prudent lose.
So, in a way, to have deflation now would be a nice reversal in terms of giving a little something to the folks who got screwed the past few years. But how do you control what deflates and for how long?
But that does not seem to be what Bernanke is shooting for. Everything points to a desire to increase inflation and maintain asset prices. The fiction is the asset prices - they arent supported by incomes. So, inflate incomes, if you wont let assets fall. Problem is, do you see wage inflation on the horizon anytime soon. Uh, no. You cant get the money to flow the way you want. The liiquidity will end up in all the wrong places, and we'll just create different problems. And most of the assets you cant prevent the price drops anyway.
The reality of the last few years is that for generic consumers, prices of almost everything in their budget have surged, few if any have corrected, or even will correct, and many are still rising at ridiculous clips. Without the wealth gains, this means our economic policies have only served to reduce the general standard of living, especially seeing as we've neglected infrastructure. And the wealth gains were clearly an illusion.
Except the fees on all that illusory wealth building. Ah, the fees. Very real. Very squirreled away. And now, squirreling them away faster than ever.
Sheeple be damned, it's only about the banksters. Our economy is a joke.
The changes in matters financial since 1929, compared to today are as severe as the changes in warfare from the end of our Civil War in 1865 compared to a summer's day outing in Nagasaki, 80 years later...
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. banking industry said it made $9.8 billion during the first quarter trading derivatives and securities as investors started returning to the markets amid signs the recession bottomed.
The surge was led by trading in interest-rate derivatives, which allow investors to hedge against rate swings, as the banks reported revenues that were more than triple any quarter during at least the past five years, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said today in a report.
Revenue rose as banks, constrained by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, charged “wide” bid-ask spreads, or the fees that traders make from the gap between prices at which they’ll buy and sell the contracts, Deputy Comptroller Kathryn Dick said in a statement.
Revenue from trading interest-rate contracts soared to $9.1 billion from $1.9 billion a year earlier and from a $3.4 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the report. Currencies contracts accounted for $2.4 billion in the 2009 first period. The banks lost $3.15 billion from trading credit.
Derivatives are a zero sum game - if banks made $9.8 Bil, then somebody lost $9.8 Bil.
Moreover, corporations usually engage in interest and currency derivatives, but not in credit derivatives. So that means the real economy lost to the banks on interest and currency hedges, while hedge funds won on credit bets.
Of course, there is also the magic fo mark-to-model, when both sides of a contract book profits.
I'm wondering if the Mexican Cartels will start bribing in IOU's or do they have lots and lots of cash?
No matter. The Drug War has been such a success.
And every cop is an honest cop.
I think that's almost certain. But doubt we'll see granular data to reflect it. Certainly workers vote with their feet, and others adjust how they're living.
Ok wisdom of crowds, ever consider that in a continental economy it's quite possible to have sharp deflation or inflation depending on location?
Bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler pushes Detroit in deep recession, with asset prices and wages falling across the board - deflation.
At the same time, Wall Street continues to ring in quarter after quarter of bumper profits, including fees made on reorganization of GM and Chrysler. Real estate prices, other prices and wages in NYC all go up across the board - inflation
Yes, there could be some arbitrage in buying stuff in Detroit and selling it in NYC - but the volume of goods in such overlap would be rather small. At the same time, people from Detroit will not migrate to NYC, especially if the government promises some nominal support to those who lost their jobs at GM and Chrysler. And few people will ever want to migrate from NYC to Detroit
It is naive to assume unidirectional flow of actionable information. And never underestimate the value of negative information. Ref: Wright model B and Jas' ill fated foray into 2% Treasuries.
I might keep chewing on this one over the weekend. Considering it at global level rather invites a "well, of course" response, but it seems worth poking around the national-level contention, since that's where most of the debate seems to happen. (Excepting during local elections and during G20 meetings).
Here's Pesek via Bloomie setting up Soros vs World Bank angles:
C - the answer is "yes, it is possible" if the areas with inflation and deflation do not have their own independent fiscal and monetary policies. If they do (as in the G20 context), then you can expect to see races to the bottom and other spiraling dynamics.
Uh, excuse the interruption. Don't mean to jump into what appears to be a group personal BB but,
is it possible to get the actual numbers for the graph in question as opposed to the percent change month to month?
New and existing home sales are published as actual (sort of) numbers. I'd like to relate that to the percent change chart.
Kona hotel foreclosed on
Keauhou Bay Resort being put up for auction after defaulting on mortgage
Advertiser Staff and News Services
The Sheraton Keauhou Bay Resort and Spa has defaulted on the nearly $60 million remaining on its mortgage, interests and fines, and will be sold at auction July 31.
Some would still insist this is deflationary, somehow?
Rents/rent equivalents are down more than the junk food prices are up
One can't look at a particular set of goods/services and call for inflation/deflation
speaking of cops, just found out that all of these security guards at various clubs and watering holes are
actually cops... and not off duty cops at that...
you hire them through the police dept. and they sit outside your place
packing heat... they can wear uniforms but usually wear dark blue paramilitary garb...
... found out the club I go to has an AK 47 under the desk... (everyone gets patted down on entry)
Eating sunflower seeds is good for you.
Wiki:
In addition to linoleic acid (an essential fatty acid), sunflower seeds are also an excellent source of dietary fiber, protein, Vitamin E, B Vitamins, and minerals such as potassium, magnesium, iron, phosphorus, selenium, calcium and zinc.[5] Additionally, they are rich in cholesterol-lowering phytosterols.
Cracker Jacks?
Not so much...
Do they still have a prize in every box, JD?
Matt Taibbi is writing in Rolling Stone about Lloyd Blankfein's of Goldman Sachs non apology for "participating in the market ephoria...but proud of the way our firm managed the risk for our clients." Taibbi points out that Goldman helped destroy the world economy and the way they "managed the risk" was by insuring their gambling through AIG and then having Hank Paulson and others use the Federal Government to pay off their gambling debts. Taibbi nails what they did with one of the best descriptions I've read of the sub prime mortgage toxic assets mess.
Imagine a meat company that bred ten billion rats, fattened them on trash and sewage, ground their bodies into chuck, and then sold it all as grade-A ground beef to McDonald's and Burger King, right under the noses of the USDA: this is exactly the same thing, only with debt instead of food. We're eating it, they're counting the money.
Taibbi points out that Goldman's was smart enough not to eat their own rat burgers, but Lehman's and Bear Stearns weren't so smart.
OT / I have made this argument to Bill and Coop, why should one be silenced via the Ignore feature
and yet be subjected unwittingly to that person's comments...
smells like fascism to me - dialogue is a two way street
even in the days of Jas Jain I'm old enough to eyeball past things, even a fool can say some amazing things (not saying he was)
but this Ignore User is so Ahmadinejad!
and it's a question of equity, why should I have to read in good faith the ramblings
of someone who has banished me?
....
Bill gave me a disingenuous answer... said it would cause problems...
Hell, the thought that somebody might actually pay attention to these comments is double rewarding
Yeah, well, I'm with Dawg - I think there is some surprisingly real value in the commentariat and I suspect it's more widely read than we realize - even if only to gage the effect of spin and to watch for emerging memes.
it's probably just me but I have lived in so many countries where dissent is gagged
and therefore I never place a single person on Ignore... until you've seen the other
side the coin perhaps you can't appreciate the priceless quality of free speech...
why should I have to read in good faith the ramblings
of someone who has banished me?
banish him back. I think the ignore user function is great. I'll choose to risk missing the occasional correct thing that Jas, Miacheal or km4 (very rarely) say in order to get rid of the noise and/or numbing repetitions.
DCD - I agree, though I have to confess, one user consistently got to me, and I have him on ignore. It would not surprise me to find I am on a few others' ignore lists.
gabyjan...
the only way for In Cold Blood to work as a masterpiece was that the two (Smith and Hickcock)
had to swing and Truman knew it and played the con, Janet Malcolm did a brilliant analysis of
this in the New Yorker on Joe McGuinnes' book on that military officer who killed his wife, Jeffrey ?...
....
this clown ain't going be swinging from a rope but I thought I might include these guys on
an inner story in my novel.
OT (or is it, we're spending mucho dinero on wars of all sorts):
TRIESTE, Italy (Reuters) - Washington is to dramatically overhaul its Afghan anti-drug strategy, phasing out opium poppy eradication, the U.S. envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan told allies on Saturday.
Afghanistan supplies more than 90 percent of the world's heroin.
Despite the millions of dollars spent on counter-narcotics efforts, drug production kept rising dramatically until last year -- U.N. figures indicate Afghanistan's opiate output has risen more than 40-fold since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion.
RE: Ignore.
The fence keeps some people out and others trapped within.
until you've seen the other
side the coin perhaps you can't appreciate the priceless quality of free speech...
But the people I ignore are still free to speak and be heard here - I just decide for myself, not for anybody else. This is altogether different than a government eliminating dissent.
Think of the place with all the soapboxes where people can say whatever they want - if I choose not to listen to one, am I limiting his freedom?
I got much guilty pleasure out of banishing a few people from me seeing their words, but only after careful consideration of what they had to offer me in exchange for my time.
What the hell. Seems like this article spent 3/4ths of the space describing the graphs. I found the data below more interesting than what CR had linked to... seems like CR has been ahead of banking on this drum.
Of the 135,000 completed but unsold new homes at the end of May, nearly half had been sitting for a year or more. The median age of such homes was 11.5 months, an unprecedented figure.
Comparing the numbers from end of April to end of May the median age of unsold homes increased by 0.6 months from April to May. I'm assuming this rate has flattened?
I guess another way to look at it:
Median "Birthday" of Unsold New Home (End of April 2009) = early May 2008
Median "Birthday" of Unsold New Home (End of May 2009) = mid-May 2008.
This rate of change MoM < 1 they are working off some of the "unsold new home" inventory.
This rate of change MoM is 0 or negative they have worked off a month of inventory plus.
Rante of change MoM 1 or greater they have not worked off any inventory; and "new" inventory has come online.
Interesting this week's announcement that BHO was firing 4000 white collars @GM (not union obviously, they're campaign contributors & lever pullers for the party) yet he's boasting about all the hiring he's doing @ USG. What a guy!
Have any of you been at a party, wedding, social function, etc., where some village idiot unbeknownst to you just wont shut up?
I was @ a wedding a few months back, and the bride's brother was the village idiot. He and his wife lived in Reno, where they both worked @ a prison, he a security guard, and she worked in the prison hospital. He told me "I kick em' and she fixes em"
He started getting on a tangent about how the USA was going socialist, and I just had to walk away.
"ignore user" is just walking away from the village idiot.
Hopefully this is all I'll say on the matter. Anyone dissatisfied with the CR community and its rules has the ultimate freedom to start their own blog. I think I've had to delete 4-5 comments out ~40,000 on my blog. Express your dissatisfaction sure but it is distinctly impolite to continue to press your dissatisfaction. I look forward to future discussions of these issues at a different location.
CR said: "...Norris doesn't mention that the gap between the two series is a result of the extraordinary number of distressed existing home sales. This has pushed down new home sales (the builders can't compete with REO prices), and is keeping existing home sales elevated..."
I think you're both looking at this from too narrow a perspective.
Existing homes are far more competitive in terms of location, too. Consider: Where are all those new homes? Out where Jesus lost his sandals. Existing homes are far closer to population centers, which means better access to jobs, shopping, established school systems, and a variety of other services. Sales and prices would hold up better for existing homes regardless of price, simply because they offer better value.
And look at the NYT chart comparing existing home sales and new home sales. Existing home sales don't seem to be anywhere near "recession" levels, while new home sales are beyond recession levels.
My point: What does this illustrate except the magnitude of the speculation in new homes? Which, by the way, is why Case-Shiller makes things look so much worse than they are, because that turnover in those new homes, bought at the peak of price and now being sold under duress only a short time later, is so heavily weighted.
Only all the people that sold all the materials to all the people that leased out all of the heavy equipment to all the people that built all the homes that sold to all the people that bought all of the homes are effected, a flesh wound.
Some of that better-situated housing stock is also less desireable for other reasons: size, efficiency, quality of schools, crime, etc. All of those factors, components of "location, location, location" are present for the 'normal" numbers too - I think they average out, and CR's analysis of the important distinction makes more sense.
... seems like CR has been ahead of banking on this drum.
Of the 135,000 completed but unsold new homes at the end of May, nearly half had been sitting for a year or more. The median age of such homes was 11.5 months, an unprecedented figure.
That isn't the half of it. HBs have been dribbling out "completions" from a massive stock of nearly complete new houses. There's a lot of reasons for this, most reasonable business decisions not market manipulation. Of course at a certain level market manipulation is also a legitimate business practice as well. Keeping their potential inventory "on the pinks" gives them flexibility in making changes for customers and lowers taxes and likely conforms to existing loan covenants. This is the ultimate game of chicken. There's maybe enough room for 1/2-1/3rd the number of homebuilders we currently have. The HBs and their banks are all trying desperately to be the last one standing. IMO this will kill all of them. The survivors will be encumbered with crushing debt in a low profit business that has laughably low barriers to entry.
volker: Sorry I was just trying to make a comment on point in this article.
NYT uses a graph from haver analytics that I wanted to link to. Maybe I can find it off of the haver site.
Didn't find it. Found something more interesting. Federal Bank of Chicago: Why has Home Ownership Fallen Among the Young? Dated March 6 but I don't remember seeing this before, mostly since I get all of this via CR. Maybe upon reading I'll understand why it was never excerpted... and blogged about.
bobn... but why should that person have to see your comments if you Ignored him/her,
that's Grand Ayatollah stuff... you should lose your right to have your comments broadcast to the outcast...
...
JuvvieD, at least the guy knows you walked away, but if he's behind the hidden ply of information
how do you know he ignored you...
....
yes I agree ignore is different ...than Ignore...
I'm just saying that to allow people to play Little Hitlers
without consequence is not equitable
redst8r: "is it possible to get the actual numbers for the graph in question as opposed to the percent change month to month?
New and existing home sales are published as actual (sort of) numbers. I'd like to relate that to the percent change chart."
Sure. One of things I actually like about this blog is that the source data for the charts CR posts is almost always available for free online and can be quickly and easily downloaded into a spreadsheet.
Rob Dawg,
From the Haver site again. New Home Sales Stay Low as Prices Firm
You can see new homes are still ~ 2003-2004 prices. It looks like the inventory is coming down; although that's not what the other chart was showing. I imagine the prices will start to decline again (it looks like the graphs in this link are seasonally adjusted).
I'm just saying that to allow people to play Little Hitlers
without consequence is not equitable
Isn't Ignoring you and not learning about ladyboys punishment enough? What worse consequence could there be?
FD: I came in late on that and chose not to track back to see the full discussion.
[CR's analysis of the important distinction makes more sense]
Than Sebastian's ? What a shock! Of course it does. Why would that ratio stay constant for 30 yrs and all of a sudden gap? It's because we have never had national price declines because we never had years of income declines & debt rocketing to the moon at the same time as massive home price increases. CR is 100000% correct and Sebastian, well, he's merely maintaining his unblemished record of missing the entire point.
Sebastian, apply the Wright Model B to housing. It worked so well to predict a severe recession/depression.
bobn... how would they know unless your name turns brown or red or black...
Rob, I'm sorry, your response was a big suck up to CR... start your own blog, the rules of CR... etc...
Well, I, for one, appreciate the stories of Duke.
Gives a nice pause in realizing how incredibly screwed our eCONomy and country is.
Ignore whomever you want.
The loss, or gain, is yours to keep.
And thanks again, to CR and coop for the best damn economics blog on the web...
This CR suck-up brought to you by HomeGnome.
Conclusion from Fed Bank of Chicago paper linked above (the model descriptions might be some nice honey to those math modeling freaks out there).
To our knowledge, our paper is the first to draw the connection between heightened
income risk and lower home ownership. We think it has important implications for
public policy. To the extent that heightened income risk is here to stay, then we should
expect aggregate home ownership rates to begin to decline going forward. If such a
decline is the optimal response of households to an increase in risk, then policy makers
should be wary of introducing market distortions to offset the decline. On the other
hand, if high rates of home ownership are viewed as a desirable public policy objective,
for example as discussed in Glaeser and Shaprio (2002), then existing institutions and
regulations designed to boost home ownership will need to be rethought.
On point: my builder buddies houses are in a nice area, close in, and
are coming up on their uninhabited but c. o.-ed 2nd birthdays. Schools as good
as they get. Gated community, Etc, etc. He's over-priced them and lowered the
prices behind the mkt. He is paying assn dues, taxes, interest and insurance.
If he'd lowered the prices when I told him to, they'd be sold.
bearly said: "Why would that ratio stay constant for 30 yrs and all of a sudden gap? It's because we have never had national price declines because we never had years of income declines & debt rocketing to the moon at the same time as massive home price increases. CR is 100000% correct and Sebastian, well, he's merely maintaining his unblemished record of missing the entire point.
Sebastian, apply the Wright Model B to housing. It worked so well to predict a severe recession/depression."
Well, a reasonable person might look at the situation like this: In the tech stock crash, the Nasdaq hit a peak that it never regained after a drop of more than -75% from the top. The SP500 did regain its price highs after a drop of only about 50%.
The difference between the two indices? The Nasdaq was filled with the stocks of highly speculative companies, the SP500 had a much larger proportion of stocks representing companies with sound businesses.
Lumping together all houses without making any distinctions is a little shallow for a blog noted for its attention to detail, isn't it?
Well, I, for one, appreciate the stories of Duke.
Agreed, which makes it all the more puzzling why the Ignore feature is an issue. Why do you want to interact with someone who would ignore you? There are more than a few people who would see it as a beneficial self-selection.
ZeroHedge has interesting update on their most recent post: Zero Hedge will filter the data and forward our work product directly to appropriate Attorney General offices and local FBI branch offices. In retrospect, approaching the SEC and FINRA is futile, as they are both as much an integral part of the system as the perpetrators they are supposed to protect against. We're slowly learning that fact. And we are very, very pissed off.
So...
Dear CDS trader talking on the phone to your sales coverage discussing insider information on a deal while your bored analyst is eavesdropping...
Dear Senior Vice President at the strip club boasting to your subordinates how you misspent tens of thousands of taxpayer and investor dollars on strip clubs and prostitutes currying favor for the client, to catch that elusive multi-million deal so you can buy the third vacation home you will never frequent...
Dear General Counsel receiving sexual favors from the blonde assistant in exchange for promises of advancement that never come...
Dear Chief Executive Officer having an affair with the lady at the cosmetics section in that 5th Avenue store, while your wife and 3 children wait at home...
Dear retail broker guaranteeing your 70 year old client that investing in this particular BBB+ rated CDO will never lose money, just to hurry up and do the trade in the next 5 minutes...
Dear sell-side analyst telling your equity salesmen over shots of Grey Goose at Marquee just how crappy the REIT that you just upgraded is...
(and yes, you all know who you are)
...Please look well around you, and pray that you did not piss off any of the people close to you, who know every move you make, and every word you speak... sleep well tonight, because tomorrow your face just may make the proverbial front page of the Wall Street Journal...or Zero Hedge if the former is just a little conflicted.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 8:47 am
He builds better than code.
All the children are above average. This is a serious problem. The stuff built 2004 on is mostly crap. Even the high end crap is still crap. Don't get me wrong, I'm not much of a construction snob but All those new houses are just not going to age gracefully. That's deflationary in the short term as they depreciate due to condition issues and then they become inflationary millstones as maintenance costs impact OER.
don't remember a bar fight in Airplane
but you seldom see bar fights here unlike Saigon,
it's too dangerous... like hanging out at after hours
bars on say Amsterdam & 105th in '88 in NYC,
always expect someone to be packin'
Can someone tell me if this new cap-n-trade is likely to pass in the Senate? Giving the contention and the way current business lobby holds more sway over the Senate, I imagine it won't pass without considerable concessions. Yet; I don't understand why media focus was so huge on the House vote: its only 1/2 of the legislative body and less prone to big business. So if this bill is DoA in the Senate (since most likely there is a shitload of pork in it to get people to vote for it in the House)... why is its passage and why will its likely death be news?
Maybe my tea-reading glasses have the wrong tinge this week...
The sight of seeing Juan6pack stapling Tyvek to particle chipboard during the construction process ensures your new home has been built with only the finest materials available on the marketplace...
Particle board was outlawed in Fla after Andrew. And the law was obeyed.
Still some there from pre-Andrew on houses that weren't destroyed, or only had one
side destroyed.
Very few all wood houses. Most have cinderblock at least on the first floor. My house
has cinderblock on first floor, wood on second, with cedar planks on the outside.
House seems reasonably well built.
Now the house we rebuilt after Andrew. I think I'd stay in another Andrew. We could
have survived wet and scared in the master closet. No shutters. We turned that
master closet into something of a safe room with the drywall over half inch marine
ply over studs placed only 12 inches apart with plywood on the ceiling too behind the
drywall and tar paper over that with foam stuff around the light fixture, and then the
regular roof over that. We got steel shutters and used wood studs, not those stupid
aluminum ones. The weak point is, as always, the roof. So I'm pretty sure the buyer could stay there less wet and less scared.
I had a conversation a while back with a guy who does excavation. We were talking about the quality of these 'mushroom' tract homes. He shook his head and said he could stand outside with a sharp knife and poke it through the interior wall.
YLSP,
I am watching it closely to determine when entry back into solar would be prudent to catch that next wave.
If we are serious, it would be a big wave upwards for solar, natty gas, and uranium. Losers would include coal and oil.
But then, when is congress ever on target?
A crash in oil prices over the next two weeks would put the pressure right back on them to do nuthin special, and tell us to like it.
I still think if the credit card companies shut down the next leg of consumer credit the green shoots wither fast in credit drought.
In other words, a lot of lost consumption is about to be manifest in a new consumption horizon for the US.
As for banning- well, if a person is really offensive, and keeps on offending to no purpose, that is just disruptive.
Duke snarking R.D. -who has admittedly stated his preference for CR's policies as reactionary is quite comical.
R.D. has thrown a lot of bombs in his day, as have I, but plain old personal stuff starts to wear out a welcome.
Frequent violations of Godwin's Law simply start to look like attn whoring, and are also a waste of electrons. Stormfront sites are elsewhere, and that is where that should be.
This site has been quite enjoyable, but a little careful oversight is not censorship.
After all, people quote a lot of nonmainstream thinking here- but after a while a concord emerges of what happens next- which for my own thinking and planning is quite useful.
@Liz - my S.Florida experience comes from time spent with the former in-laws - who lived in early 50s CBS housing stock...South Miami "proper" and the Grove - that stuff was indestructable, and the roofs stayed put. A few cracked windows (no shutters) from a few stray asphalt shingles, but otherwise phenomenal. Those interlocking cement roof tiles are the shiznit.
The early evidence is that the composite joists are pretty good...I think the big deal is you really have to keep that stuff dry.
I owned a 50s cbs house in South Miami. (Actually it was a hole in the
doughnut of South Miami, due to stuff that happened in GD I). It was north
of the zone of destruction, but is still there just fine.
Yes you are right that those houses are well built, but they really weren't tested
by Andrew. My second house was directly in the north eye wall, which is is the strongest part
of a hurricane. Anemometer at the zoo blew away at 164 mph.
The zoo is close enough to the house that before everything got built up, we could
hear the lions roaring at night. South Miami was well north of ground zero.
Well 105th and B'way had the halfway to hell house. My college roommate lived on that block for 6 months. He thought he was in a permanent zombie movie.
AllenM first post, I believe is was before that ylsp...it was other wise known as before paulson...
Duke, I enjoy your stories..Wish I was over there because for some reason Asian ladies love my smile....we would get in trouble....Ignore is easier in the head then clicking a link
In reading the paper another fact that struck me like a truck is that nearly TWENTY million mortgages were written in 2004-2005. Ten percent going south would imply two million repo houses over the next three years. Remeber some fixed will go bad too with low equity cushions.
I am beginning to believe the fed is going to have to lower rates to ease the pain of the hot to not regions and to cushion this with higher inflation- can the $ live with 4%inflaiton for a decade?
AllenM writes:
Moral of the story- if you have an arm and want to keep the house- get to the bank before appraisers get the new lower comps from the first wave of foreclosures. Commenting from the other article- if three to five percent of the 50 million with mortages get foreclosed- that is still an additional million houses on a very soft market. If these are not done preforeclosure, but instead on the courthouse steps for whatever they bring....consider the hottest markets may get the coldest- as was what happened in the late 80s through the early 90s-
Ready for a bit of a Phoenix meltdown?
The eventual resurection is a given- but money flown away to default heaven is not restored to the losers.
Hang on tight- here comes the downside on the roller coaster....
AllenM | 10.24.06 - 4:57 pm | #
Allenm writes:
Dry,
I kinda meant that 4 percent inflation number to be rhetorical, but on further reflection I think it could be doable as long as the foreign baggie holders keep propping us up. China now controls 1.25 trillion of our debt...till they offhedge with derivatives. That day when the deliver out all of their positions is when the earthquake happens and we all wake up a lot poorer than the night before. Otoh- I don't really need much from china anymore, and I think that the next poor assembly plant de jure can take their place- Upper Volta anyone?
Anything that has an international market will immediately go skyhigh, but as long as they give the people cheap gas and cheap houses- all is well...
well, ominous. but then I am well aware that the day is coming.
Allenm | 10.24.06 - 11:45 pm | #
AllenM writes:
It's the 70's show folks- with housing and the stock market as early gainers- soon to be followed by commodities, and everybody's favorite-wages!!!
I lived through this growing up, and to paraphrase Ronnie Raygun- Here we go again.
Just waiting for the Volcker to know when the mess will end. 15% interest rates anybody?
But first our old friend the misery index must be resurrected and frontpage...currently about 10- going to 20...30?
But this will take years to play out- in some silly fashion I am hoping the republicans maintain control of congress to ensure that they get maximum blame.
FDR in 2012!
House prices will once again seem cheap- just remember the $75 hamburger is coming...
AllenM | 10.30.06 - 1:17 pm | #
Some of the earliest ones... although its strange as what I saw on hoocoodanode wasn't in my personal archives off of haloscan. Either way 10/24/2006 was earliest date I could find for your posts...
The firings, layoffs, temporary and otherwise, etc are coming closer
and closer to home. Lots will be laid off here when the shutte
closes down.
Speaking of which the hub is off trying to get the launch done again,
because the weather didn't cooperate. He doesn't think it will cooperate
again. If that happens they will take a rest day, and try monday.
So O could keep some shoots from blackening by keeping the
shuttle alive another year. One more year or a year and
a half is really all it can be kept alive. But the program needs
more money to do that. I think they'd like to use the money
for the new spacecraft instead.
Yes, definitely - I remember driving south towards Homestead and seeing things getting progressively worse down through Kendall.
...and yes, I was trying to be polite...those tiles are just wonderful. I think the weight really drives up the construction costs, but they are super-durable, and very wind-resistant. The terracotta "spanish" tiles are nice, but I believe they are somewhat easier to damage and require more maintenance. Same weight. I'm sorry, I'll avoid trying to borrow slang colloquialisms I haven't fully mastered anyway...
Gotham. I frequented the Time cafe downtown but not the Night. Barbecue Bob and the Spareribs for UWS blues.
Duke you provoked an idea: if I win enough in the zero sum casino I'll endow an annual prize for the most significant contribution (in someone's judgment) to an open-source world currency. All entries must be open-source (non-copyrightable, paid forward...).
Allen M, I thought you were around in early 06 too..
HomeGnome- I hope they were ladies...did have a bartender call out a guy/girl trying to pick me up in The Wave bar in honolulu.. it looked nice, of course 24 hours of partying, surfing, eating and plundering could have made me blind....
the night beckons for the duke...
hopefully my head will be attached to my body in the morning
... I have a sneaking suspicion of a personal Black Swan moment in the offing
an aside - spoke to a few western contractors over here from Saigon looking for work,
things sound like they are tight there....
Pavel - it is a hip-hop term, though I'm not really a hip-hop person (actually, I'm very white with tastes that run more to Louis Jordan or the Hot-5) so I can't say for sure, but yes, I think "sean puffy coombs" invented it.
Those are amazing windspeeds - your house was clearly right in it! The in-laws were just a couple of blocks off Bird Rd (40th).
Hmmm, how about 25 years. Then, should he live so long, he could be thrown out on the street at 95, so nobody has to pay to take care of him.
And he has to submit to intense sessions with shrinks and law enforcement and accountants and anybody else who has an interest in the mental
condition of someone who can do something like this. No cooperation, the
term goes up to 35 years.
The wall between the bedroom and dining room collapsed, even though it had
2 heavy wall units on one side and a dresser, lower, which would have provided
some bracing. The wall units fell over on the dining room table. The sliding
glass doors in that bedroom blew in, the roof did stay on in that area. Not the
shingles, of course.
And he has to submit to intense sessions with shrinks and law enforcement and accountants and anybody else who has an interest in the mental
condition of someone who can do something like this
More likely he'll spend many years in prison teaching thousands of miniMadoffs who will pillage upon their release.
@ Duke
Alright, be careful out there or take your ladyboy security detail with you...
I heard great things about Dean Mentshikoff, but she died just before classes started. Dean Doyle was not strong. Only professor I liked was Fischl (post '76). Massey was a character, and Oxman a caricature, but entertaining at least.
@sdtfs - Ok, like I said, I promise not to try to use terms I'm not appropriately qualified to use.
@Liz - this was Coral Lake, SW62nd Ave. Used to love getting a spinach and bacon omelette, among other things, at Allen's. It was a nice neighborhood. Kind of the Gables, but without the price, pretension and architectural review. Those houses were small, though...hard to imagine going back to a one bathroom lifestyle.
What is going to replace the shuttle near term? I don't think they even have a replacement on the drawing board yet. Are we just going to rely on the Russians? IMO, I do think they need to kill the project based on safety concerns. They were never designed to last this long. I speak from personal experience. The sub I was on was supposed to be de-commissioned in 2001. Her replacement (Seawolf #8) was never built, so she has been extended to 2015. The computers are new, but the critical hardware is all beyond design life (as my auxiliaryman senior chief used to say). After a certain point, the risks outweigh the benefits.
Well, it's not like there is any other business to attend to:
California
June 26, 2009
Assembly says farewell to Jackson, Fawcett, then adjourns
The Assembly failed to make demonstrable progress Friday in closing the state's gaping budget deficit, but it did say goodbye to singer Michael Jackson and actress Farrah Fawcett.
With the clock ticking toward a Tuesday deadline to take action so the state can avoid issuing IOUs, Assembly members again failed to approve a bill that would make $11.4 billion in spending cuts across a wide range of state programs. The bill was also defeated on Wednesday.
But before adjourning until Saturday morning, Assembly members stood for a moment of silence to mark the deaths of Jackson and Fawcett on Thursday.
"Many of us grew up with the music of the Jacksons," said Assemblyman Sandre Swanson, D-Oakland. "... I think it's time for us to recognize him as the king of pop in the most positive way we can."
Assemblyman Mike Davis, D-L.A., then rose to ask the house to adjourn in memory of Fawcett.
"I think most of all, for a lot of the men around the world, Farrah Fawcett will be remembered for her work as America's favorite cover girl," Davis said. "There may even be some in the body here who might remember if they go in the garage to get those old posters of Farrah Fawcett, one of America's most beautiful blonds."
The Senate, meanwhile, took up routine confirmation of some gubernatorial appointees. Senate Democrats then went into caucus.
Same same NYS senate. On Friday the senate came into session long enough for a moment of silence for Fawcett and Jacko. None of the critical legislation that has been piling up since the power struggle began last month was even considered. Paterson: Forget the weekend -- Page 1 -- Times Union - Albany NY
Either you believe in Human Rights or you don't...
Not to mention the US Constitution
You would think there's a bright line there, but I'm not seeing it.
Obama seems more Bushlike as time passes.
On the 'ignore user' function, while I do use it sparingly, I usually read blog comments without signing in, as I did this one, which means I'm exposed to those I would ignore were I posting comments myself. It seems to keep things in balance.
I guess we will get to see what happens when government ceases effective
governing. What is wrong with these people? NY and Cali
are walking off the cliff to oblivion. Is anyone thinking of starting another
party?
It looks more and more like late Republican Rome.
There was a bill introduced in Fla which would require citizen vote
on every single amendment to the master plan. This is ridiculous
on its face, except that the citizens know they can't trust the pols
to do anything but what developers want. I hope it passes, so
no overbuilding happens for the next 5-10 years. I realize this is
tough for people who have a legitamate investment or need a
minor tweaking of some rule, but I am sick of the buying off
part.
So O sees this as a political end run around the congress who doesn't want any of
these people incarcerated in their districts? Unintended consequences.
Well, somebody could follow them each around and record and
publish all their sexual peccadillos. That would get some out,
unless they were REALLY walking the
Appalachian Trail.
Obama has not disappoint me at all. Promise everyone they get what they want, once in office do as he dam well pleases. Total Flake from the start. A very weak one at that.
Here's the story of a Argentinean lady
Who was bringing up two very lovely girls.
Both of them had hair of gold, like their mother,
The youngest one in curls.
Here's the story, of a governor named Sanford,
Who was busy with four boys of his own,
They were five men, living all together,
Yet they were all alone.
Till the one day when the lady met this fellow
And they knew it was much more than a hunch,
That this group would somehow form a family.
That's the way they all became the Sanford Bunch.
The Sanford Bunch,
That's the way we all became aware of the Sanford Bunch.
The Sanford Bunch.
just for you liz. It turns out I saved (wanted to keep track of his investment advice) one of his last posts.
Jas Jain (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 11:49 pm reply Ignore user --
Rob Dawg,
I do diversify as a matter of prudence. Have done for years.
USTs
GOLD
Short the US Scam Market -- a bet against Americans, or for Americans being born-and-bred dopes ruled by banking and finance Crooks
Swiss franc (my target of 100 was reached and I scaled back into UST STRIPS)
My proportion of the USTs is the highest and Swiss is the lowest in years. I fully expect long UST bond yield to make new lows over the next 6-18 months. I am a professional speculator and I do hedge when prudence calls for it. I hedged when long bond hit 135. Right now I am short 110P-135C strangle (naked).
In the residential foreclosure world, as discussed here frequently, there's been an ongong conversation on the number of homeowners who are walking away versus the number being forced out of their homes. The following came from a column in the L.A. Times this morning that broached an idea I think is DOA, namely forgiveness of principal.
How many homeowners in that situation would walk away? A new study by a team of researchers including Luigi Zingales, a University of Chicago finance professor, estimated that 26% of current mortgage defaults are "strategic" -- meaning homeowners chose to default even though they could afford their loans.
OT: From the Ripoff Files
USC-Columbia Tuition to Go Up 3.6%
In addition, nearly none of the several hundred adjunct faculty who teach at the university will be rehired, Pastides said. As a result, full-time faculty will teach more, and in some cases some highly specialized classes may not be available.
COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) -- South Carolina athletic director Eric Hyman has received a five-year contract extension.
Hyman did not receive a raise on his deal, which guarantees him $430,000 a year. Hyman and university president Harris Pastides both cited the troubled economic climate for holding off on a raise.
no, the fed is just infinitely more brazen about "printing" and buying up the auctions. they're also less transparent than ever. it is amazing, technology has done nothing to make them more transparent and accountable - quite the opposite.
This past week two people I know sold their condos here in the South Loop of Chicago and other friends who have theirs on the market and are spending more time wondering the neighborhood while their units are being shown. There are several new condo buildings nearby that are pretty empty. I discussed the pickup in condo sales with the local community banker. He thinks the pickup in sales of existing condos at the expense of new ones represents the fear that new units may not have enough sold to pay for monthly assessments, end up being section 8 properties, or otherwise cheapened or end up BK. Older buildings have fewer units for sale and appear to be more "stable" offering less risk that the association (HOA) can't pay its bills and there is less risk that a wholesaler will purchase multiple units and increase the percentage of renters.
Yes, Liz, they're still oblivious. The latest meme is, "The middle class pays most of the freight, but doesn't get any of the benefit for state services. So why should we care if they cut money for the poor, disabled, etc., etc.? I don't need any of that anyway! Live within our means!" They'll make an exception for state parks, which they do know they use.
You could endlessly debate this -- it's Saturday and the heat wave finally got here to Paradise, so I don't feel like it. But that's the mindset.
Real estate, too. The subprime areas are hellholes, but the privileged middle/upper class folks along the coast -- those with good income, and those who simply bought when RE was cheap -- still believe the economy will straighten out after a brief unpleasantness and RE prices will resume their steady price upwards.
It's all that self-esteem training. Tells you you can make a miracle just by thinking positively.
American experiment is coming to close...maybe you fuckers actually will have a real culture in the future, instead of borrowing it (starting from Statue of Liberty)... who knows.
Come on Americans, your culture is at least 230 years old. Way older than most European nations have been independent. You are Michael Jackson with heart attack, pretending be young forever. Even France has whatever 7th Republic already. Maybe it is time to grow up? Really grow up, instead of this childish Temple of Mammon "who got most toys" crap?
Even Romans with all their greediness created something, became something better but Americans...gatorade bottle in 2540 in a grave? Come on.
Good morning!
Is Nemo asleep?
Can't be ...
Should I say it? Yes, I should: the chart looks wonderfully familiar!
gabyjan...
what book are you talking about... Cold?
....
yeah, that's some graph... burnside saying we had that here first?
esp. the age of new homes...
how many users you see on-line... number seems small
guess everyone was up for the Jackson last night
Chuckle for the Morning.
The Science of Economic Bubbles and Busts: Scientific American
"Science-based" article from Scientific American about the Bubble but mostly about psychology and sentiment with no mention of the mathematics of fractional reserve lending, exponential functional of interest or the empirical proof of the K-wave. The magazine's name is ironically appropriate in a disquieting way.
A little something for the kids this morning:
YouTube - Duck Tales Inflation Lesson
Hey, stop complaining about British humor.
Don't you like this piece from The Guardian?
It took Wall Street time to warm up to Bernanke. Initially, they feared his academic background meant he was too removed from financial markets to handle the job.
Three years and trillions of dollars later, that tune has changed.
"His track record overall has been excellent," said David Dietze, chief investment strategist at Point View Financial Services in Summit, New Jersey.
Oh Larry Yun
What will you tell us this time
You’re only dancing on this earth for a short while
And though American Dreams may toss and turn you now
They will vanish away like David Lereah’s
Dreams blown, fading up to the sky
And though you want the market to last forever
You know it never will
You know it never will
And the collapse make the good buys harder still
Oh Larry Yun
What will you tell us this time
There’ll never be a better chance to mess with your mind
And if you want this world to see a bettor day
Will you carry the words of loan with you
Will you ride the great white elephant into foreclosure
And though you want the market to last forever
You know it never will
You know it never will
And the collapse makes the good buys harder still
Oh Larry Yun
What will you tell us this time
You’re only dancing on this earth for a short while
Oh Larry Yun
What will you tell us this time?
did anyone see this in the Bits section of the Times:
...
"The Netflix Prize contest has been hailed as prime example of “prize economics” and the crowdsourcing of innovation. Prize economics refers to running a contest to generate a new innovation at less cost than an in-house research and development effort, and crowd-sourcing refers to using the proverbial wisdom of crowds to accomplish a task. Netflix has said that $1 million would be a bargain price for an improved recommendation engine, which would increase customer satisfaction and generate more movie rental business."
here is one criticism:
Tens of millions of dollars of effort have been invested by contestants in this contest. While this contest made excellent sense for Netflix, it made little economic sense for most of the participants. Even for Netflix there is an anti-climactic aspect since from what we know of the winning algorithms the approach is unusable in the Netflix business.
crowd outsourcing of thought = CR comment board
crowd outsourcing of thought = CR comment board
In not for the money but for sheer pleasure of intellectual discourse
Hell, the thought that somebody might actually pay attention to these comments is double rewarding
And the not entirely humourless Willem Buiter throws down the gauntlet on banking reform in an FT post:
FT.com | Willem Buiter's Maverecon |
. . . though he says he's not holding his breath.
crowd outsourcing of thought = CR comment board
True, dat.
somebody might actually pay attention to these comments is doubly rewarding
Only in laughter.
Mish has really painted himself into a coroner with his dogged determination regarding deflation, I wonder why he's so inflexible?
I wonder why he's so inflexible?
I've joked about it before but....
it's a religious argument with him.
I argued with the Anarcho-Capitalists for years before I realized that it's a religion, not an economic theory.
Some people like competing in contests. Fuck the $.
HomeGnome - good video lol!
Gosh, Broward, I think he just took Kondratieff to heart?
If the thinking were a little less extreme, I'd probably still be reading him. Or the Mogambo Guru (Richard Daughty).
I argued with the Anarcho-Capitalists for years before I realized that it's a religion, not an economic theory.
Same it is true about its mirror-image, Anarcho-Syndicalism.
The more bizarre the underpinning logic is, the stronger they believe - awestruck by the power of their beliefs over the logic and evidence
. . . or I could just stick to reading the Austrians. Yeah. Maybe that.
Gosh, Broward, I think he just took Kondratieff to heart?
Plenty of empirical evidence for K-Waves.
What has no evidence is that eradication of the gov't == Good Thing.
In fact, 2000 years of history strongly suggests that it's not even possible.
Likewise, there's plenty of cases where gov'ts printed to cover debts.
In fact, that's the percentage bet.
Ergo, Mish's belief system has strong religious elements that don't acknowledge facts.
Miss No-Commitment is flying out for five days.
Empirical evidence strongly suggests that yes, I am magically delicious.
Mish gets a bit mixed up when he thinks about deflation for one, vs deflation for the masses.
For example, for me, renting, saving, no debt, I like deflation. A lot. However, I wont like it if it continues to the point where my job disappears. The key is, who gets to maintain their income in deflation (eventually, fewer and fewer). And whose assets go poof (almost everbodys).
On the other hand, rampant inflation, Id kind of hate, just as I HAVE hated it the past few years, since my income doesnt keep up, all my costs go up, and assets run away from me while I try to save for them - and the one asset, equities that I get to participate in the inflation of, easily reverses, wiping out all my gains. And of course, in rampant inflation, debtors win, prudent lose.
So, in a way, to have deflation now would be a nice reversal in terms of giving a little something to the folks who got screwed the past few years. But how do you control what deflates and for how long?
But that does not seem to be what Bernanke is shooting for. Everything points to a desire to increase inflation and maintain asset prices. The fiction is the asset prices - they arent supported by incomes. So, inflate incomes, if you wont let assets fall. Problem is, do you see wage inflation on the horizon anytime soon. Uh, no. You cant get the money to flow the way you want. The liiquidity will end up in all the wrong places, and we'll just create different problems. And most of the assets you cant prevent the price drops anyway.
The reality of the last few years is that for generic consumers, prices of almost everything in their budget have surged, few if any have corrected, or even will correct, and many are still rising at ridiculous clips. Without the wealth gains, this means our economic policies have only served to reduce the general standard of living, especially seeing as we've neglected infrastructure. And the wealth gains were clearly an illusion.
Except the fees on all that illusory wealth building. Ah, the fees. Very real. Very squirreled away. And now, squirreling them away faster than ever.
Sheeple be damned, it's only about the banksters. Our economy is a joke.
JD: Cat Stevens would be proud. Maybe. Anyway, it's just right.
I'll hear that now, when Mr. Yun comes up. You beast.
Mind fart:
The changes in matters financial since 1929, compared to today are as severe as the changes in warfare from the end of our Civil War in 1865 compared to a summer's day outing in Nagasaki, 80 years later...
'This is the city: Los Angeles, California. I work here. I carry a badge.'
and I get paid in I.O.U's...
nemo will return soon after a surprisingly long breakfast
Juvenal: please, open a window
I lit a match.
the builders can't compete with REO prices
Well, they can but it would expose the depth of their current insolvencies, so they don't.
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. banking industry said it made $9.8 billion during the first quarter trading derivatives and securities as investors started returning to the markets amid signs the recession bottomed.
The surge was led by trading in interest-rate derivatives, which allow investors to hedge against rate swings, as the banks reported revenues that were more than triple any quarter during at least the past five years, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said today in a report.
Revenue rose as banks, constrained by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, charged “wide” bid-ask spreads, or the fees that traders make from the gap between prices at which they’ll buy and sell the contracts, Deputy Comptroller Kathryn Dick said in a statement.
Revenue from trading interest-rate contracts soared to $9.1 billion from $1.9 billion a year earlier and from a $3.4 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the report. Currencies contracts accounted for $2.4 billion in the 2009 first period. The banks lost $3.15 billion from trading credit.
Derivatives are a zero sum game - if banks made $9.8 Bil, then somebody lost $9.8 Bil.
Moreover, corporations usually engage in interest and currency derivatives, but not in credit derivatives. So that means the real economy lost to the banks on interest and currency hedges, while hedge funds won on credit bets.
Of course, there is also the magic fo mark-to-model, when both sides of a contract book profits.
Either way, two cheers for the banksters!
it's all part of the fiction JP...
nemo will return soon after a surprisingly long breakfast
He's stuck in a cave with an unpleasant breakfast companion. He'll be back to being one of the sheeple soon though.
that graph... smells like depression!
I hear that banks are monetizing the IOU's from CA, anybody hear this too?
IOUSA, will pay you back asap dude.
Have a nice day,
Sincerely
California
Ok wisdom of crowds, ever consider that in a continental economy it's quite possible to have sharp deflation or inflation depending on location?
C
some here might argue against such a notion, C, not me
I'm wondering if the Mexican Cartels will start bribing in IOU's or do they have lots and lots of cash?
No matter. The Drug War has been such a success.
And every cop is an honest cop.
CR, do you ever get tired of seeing work you've done show up else where...uncredited?
Nice point, Counterpointer.
C:
I think that's almost certain. But doubt we'll see granular data to reflect it. Certainly workers vote with their feet, and others adjust how they're living.
Bought my first candy bar (the only unchanged leftover from the 1930's as a consumer staple) that cost me more than a dollar, last week.
The very same candy bar cost a dime in 1970.
But JD, that same candy bar used to be 8 oz and now is only 6 oz...
Ok wisdom of crowds, ever consider that in a continental economy it's quite possible to have sharp deflation or inflation depending on location?
Bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler pushes Detroit in deep recession, with asset prices and wages falling across the board - deflation.
At the same time, Wall Street continues to ring in quarter after quarter of bumper profits, including fees made on reorganization of GM and Chrysler. Real estate prices, other prices and wages in NYC all go up across the board - inflation
Yes, there could be some arbitrage in buying stuff in Detroit and selling it in NYC - but the volume of goods in such overlap would be rather small. At the same time, people from Detroit will not migrate to NYC, especially if the government promises some nominal support to those who lost their jobs at GM and Chrysler. And few people will ever want to migrate from NYC to Detroit
Good things come in small(er) packages. It's just like the 30 oz mayo. So much tastier.
crowd outsourcing of thought = CR comment board
It is naive to assume unidirectional flow of actionable information. And never underestimate the value of negative information. Ref: Wright model B and Jas' ill fated foray into 2% Treasuries.
I might keep chewing on this one over the weekend. Considering it at global level rather invites a "well, of course" response, but it seems worth poking around the national-level contention, since that's where most of the debate seems to happen. (Excepting during local elections and during G20 meetings).
Here's Pesek via Bloomie setting up Soros vs World Bank angles:
Soros Goes Long as World Bank Shorts Recovery: William Pesek - Bloomberg.com
C
homegnome wrote:
And every cop is an honest cop.
"Every cops a criminal,
And the sinners saints" -- Rolling Stones
Jain's Syndrome by Proxy.
C - the answer is "yes, it is possible" if the areas with inflation and deflation do not have their own independent fiscal and monetary policies. If they do (as in the G20 context), then you can expect to see races to the bottom and other spiraling dynamics.
MrM - would that be migration with pitchforks, or without...!?
C
Here's how Frito Lay does it with their product line, the 2 ways to inflation vis a vis junk food
Bag of 4 1/4 oz Cracker Jack last year: 99 cents
Bag of 4 1/4 oz Cracker Jack this year: $1.29
2 bags of 2 3/4's oz sunflower seeds in the shell last year: 99 cents
2 bags of 2 1/8th oz sunflower seeds in the shell this year: 99 cents
Some would still insist this is deflationary, somehow?
would that be migration with pitchforks, or without...!?
No worries, C - Obama is standing between the banksters and the pitchforks
Uh, excuse the interruption. Don't mean to jump into what appears to be a group personal BB but,
is it possible to get the actual numbers for the graph in question as opposed to the percent change month to month?
New and existing home sales are published as actual (sort of) numbers. I'd like to relate that to the percent change chart.
Just asking.
Kona hotel foreclosed on
Keauhou Bay Resort being put up for auction after defaulting on mortgage
Advertiser Staff and News Services
The Sheraton Keauhou Bay Resort and Spa has defaulted on the nearly $60 million remaining on its mortgage, interests and fines, and will be sold at auction July 31.
honoluluadvertiser.com | Honolulu | The Honolulu Advertiser
And another one bites the dust.
I have reservations about any Fancy Schmancy hotels surviving. Bling is debt.
Some would still insist this is deflationary, somehow?
Rents/rent equivalents are down more than the junk food prices are up
One can't look at a particular set of goods/services and call for inflation/deflation
speaking of cops, just found out that all of these security guards at various clubs and watering holes are
actually cops... and not off duty cops at that...
you hire them through the police dept. and they sit outside your place
packing heat... they can wear uniforms but usually wear dark blue paramilitary garb...
... found out the club I go to has an AK 47 under the desk... (everyone gets patted down on entry)
redst8r:
Use CR's link to his own article on the subject. There's a numeric graph there and links to the report.
JD. Disagree.
Bling/not bling can be debt or not. Your roadside AmericInn is also prone to default.
found out the club I go to has an AK 47 under the desk.
What?
No rockets?
weak.
Junk food or nourishing food, it makes no difference. Inflation is rampant in what we eat.
If you've been laid off of your $35k a year job and are happy to work for $10 an hour now, it's like a double-kill financially.
Gotta eat...
Eating sunflower seeds is good for you.
Wiki:
In addition to linoleic acid (an essential fatty acid), sunflower seeds are also an excellent source of dietary fiber, protein, Vitamin E, B Vitamins, and minerals such as potassium, magnesium, iron, phosphorus, selenium, calcium and zinc.[5] Additionally, they are rich in cholesterol-lowering phytosterols.
Cracker Jacks?
Not so much...
Do they still have a prize in every box, JD?
Matt Taibbi is writing in Rolling Stone about Lloyd Blankfein's of Goldman Sachs non apology for "participating in the market ephoria...but proud of the way our firm managed the risk for our clients." Taibbi points out that Goldman helped destroy the world economy and the way they "managed the risk" was by insuring their gambling through AIG and then having Hank Paulson and others use the Federal Government to pay off their gambling debts. Taibbi nails what they did with one of the best descriptions I've read of the sub prime mortgage toxic assets mess.
Imagine a meat company that bred ten billion rats, fattened them on trash and sewage, ground their bodies into chuck, and then sold it all as grade-A ground beef to McDonald's and Burger King, right under the noses of the USDA: this is exactly the same thing, only with debt instead of food. We're eating it, they're counting the money.
Taibbi points out that Goldman's was smart enough not to eat their own rat burgers, but Lehman's and Bear Stearns weren't so smart.
The Seminal » Nobody Says It Better Than Matt Taibbi – Rat Burgers, Anybody?
Some Saturday morning thread music -
Talking Heads - (Nothing but) Flowers
YouTube - Slidesong: Talking Heads - (Nothing But) Flowers (Lillywhite Mix)
This used to be real estate
Now it's only fields and trees
Where, where is the town
Now, it's nothing but flowers
The highways and cars
Were sacrificed for agriculture
I thought that we'd start over
But I guess I was wrong
Once there were parking lots
Now it's a peaceful oasis
you got it, you got it
This was a Pizza Hut
Now it's all covered with daisies
you got it, you got it
I miss the honky tonks,
Dairy Queens, and 7-Elevens
you got it, you got it
And as things fell apart
Nobody paid much attention
you got it, you got it
I dream of cherry pies,
Candy bars, and chocolate chip cookies
you got it, you got it
We used to microwave
Now we just eat nuts and berries
you got it, you got it
This was a discount store,
Now it's turned into a cornfield
you got it, you got it
duke
truman capote's In Cold Blood
and i watched 3rd rock from the sun last night
OT / I have made this argument to Bill and Coop, why should one be silenced via the Ignore feature
and yet be subjected unwittingly to that person's comments...
smells like fascism to me - dialogue is a two way street
I am a sunflower seed addict, and occasionally eat a bag of 'Jack, and the prize ain't much nowadays...
Miss No-Commitment is flying out for five days.
Empirical evidence strongly suggests that yes, I am magically delicious.
CR comments: Where Broward "blows his" Horne.
Junk food or nourishing food, it makes no difference. Inflation is rampant in what we eat. <i/>
Food prices go up, computer prices go down - it is all about the aggregate
Deflation in used Pontiac cars???
Take me out to the Mall Game
If we don't buy it's a shame
Cuz it's one, two, three cards you're out
at the old mall game!
too much coffee...
OT RE:Miss No-Commitment
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
My car is 8 years old and my computer is a bit younger.
If I had to buy them every week, like I do food, I would reap the whirlwind of savings...
even in the days of Jas Jain I'm old enough to eyeball past things, even a fool can say some amazing things (not saying he was)
but this Ignore User is so Ahmadinejad!
and it's a question of equity, why should I have to read in good faith the ramblings
of someone who has banished me?
....
Bill gave me a disingenuous answer... said it would cause problems...
Hell, the thought that somebody might actually pay attention to these comments is double rewarding
Yeah, well, I'm with Dawg - I think there is some surprisingly real value in the commentariat and I suspect it's more widely read than we realize - even if only to gage the effect of spin and to watch for emerging memes.
@JD
If I had to buy them every week, like I do food
There's always homegrown, bud.
That graphic is truly stunning. The pie really did shrink this time, by a lot. How can all those big public builders expect to hang on ?
it's probably just me but I have lived in so many countries where dissent is gagged
and therefore I never place a single person on Ignore... until you've seen the other
side the coin perhaps you can't appreciate the priceless quality of free speech...
Nemo is having his car serviced.
(I think of the CR comment section as my own personal Twitter.)
but this Ignore User is so Ahmadinejad!
Huh?
why should I have to read in good faith the ramblings
of someone who has banished me?
banish him back. I think the ignore user function is great. I'll choose to risk missing the occasional correct thing that Jas, Miacheal or km4 (very rarely) say in order to get rid of the noise and/or numbing repetitions.
DCD - I agree, though I have to confess, one user consistently got to me, and I have him on ignore. It would not surprise me to find I am on a few others' ignore lists.
"until you've seen the other
side the coin perhaps you can't appreciate the priceless quality of free speech..."
Yep.
On free speech:
FOR THOSE WHO SING
Our songbirds do not sing in cages
Neither do they sing for wages
Sparrow, cardinal and wren
Do not come when princes send
If you put them behind wire
They will languish and expire
If you bar them from the trees
Rage and anguish will you seize
A cage for them is also yours
In for them is out of doors,
But if you put them in a prison
It is your own cell you will live in
True for us and true for birds
For those who sing with song and words
Pavel
June 17, 2009
gabyjan...
the only way for In Cold Blood to work as a masterpiece was that the two (Smith and Hickcock)
had to swing and Truman knew it and played the con, Janet Malcolm did a brilliant analysis of
this in the New Yorker on Joe McGuinnes' book on that military officer who killed his wife, Jeffrey ?...
....
this clown ain't going be swinging from a rope but I thought I might include these guys on
an inner story in my novel.
OT (or is it, we're spending mucho dinero on wars of all sorts):
TRIESTE, Italy (Reuters) - Washington is to dramatically overhaul its Afghan anti-drug strategy, phasing out opium poppy eradication, the U.S. envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan told allies on Saturday.
Afghanistan supplies more than 90 percent of the world's heroin.
Despite the millions of dollars spent on counter-narcotics efforts, drug production kept rising dramatically until last year -- U.N. figures indicate Afghanistan's opiate output has risen more than 40-fold since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion.
RE: Ignore.
The fence keeps some people out and others trapped within.
until you've seen the other
side the coin perhaps you can't appreciate the priceless quality of free speech...
But the people I ignore are still free to speak and be heard here - I just decide for myself, not for anybody else. This is altogether different than a government eliminating dissent.
Think of the place with all the soapboxes where people can say whatever they want - if I choose not to listen to one, am I limiting his freedom?
anyone who ignores anyone else is an elitist, stuck forever with your fund of knowledge, rotting slowly into cheese quarter pounders
I got much guilty pleasure out of banishing a few people from me seeing their words, but only after careful consideration of what they had to offer me in exchange for my time.
dawg [And never underestimate the value of negative information. Ref: Wright model B and Jas' ill fated foray into 2% Treasuries. ]
LOL. +1
What the hell. Seems like this article spent 3/4ths of the space describing the graphs. I found the data below more interesting than what CR had linked to... seems like CR has been ahead of banking on this drum.
Of the 135,000 completed but unsold new homes at the end of May, nearly half had been sitting for a year or more. The median age of such homes was 11.5 months, an unprecedented figure.
Comparing the numbers from end of April to end of May the median age of unsold homes increased by 0.6 months from April to May. I'm assuming this rate has flattened?
I guess another way to look at it:
Median "Birthday" of Unsold New Home (End of April 2009) = early May 2008
Median "Birthday" of Unsold New Home (End of May 2009) = mid-May 2008.
This rate of change MoM < 1 they are working off some of the "unsold new home" inventory.
This rate of change MoM is 0 or negative they have worked off a month of inventory plus.
Rante of change MoM 1 or greater they have not worked off any inventory; and "new" inventory has come online.
There's Ignore, and there's ignore.
Argue the point if you like, but I may not listen. Because that's a freedom too.
C
ylsp: I think I get your point.
might be interesting to track it forward
Duke, what you say is true, but the freedom to speak does not mean the freedom to make others listen.
Volker. I'm surprised at you. A lot of quarter-pounders on offer here sometimes. I don't always eat them. Do you? Always?
I stand by my previous remarks.
Interesting this week's announcement that BHO was firing 4000 white collars @GM (not union obviously, they're campaign contributors & lever pullers for the party) yet he's boasting about all the hiring he's doing @ USG. What a guy!
Have any of you been at a party, wedding, social function, etc., where some village idiot unbeknownst to you just wont shut up?
I was @ a wedding a few months back, and the bride's brother was the village idiot. He and his wife lived in Reno, where they both worked @ a prison, he a security guard, and she worked in the prison hospital. He told me "I kick em' and she fixes em"
He started getting on a tangent about how the USA was going socialist, and I just had to walk away.
"ignore user" is just walking away from the village idiot.
Hopefully this is all I'll say on the matter. Anyone dissatisfied with the CR community and its rules has the ultimate freedom to start their own blog. I think I've had to delete 4-5 comments out ~40,000 on my blog. Express your dissatisfaction sure but it is distinctly impolite to continue to press your dissatisfaction. I look forward to future discussions of these issues at a different location.
CR said: "...Norris doesn't mention that the gap between the two series is a result of the extraordinary number of distressed existing home sales. This has pushed down new home sales (the builders can't compete with REO prices), and is keeping existing home sales elevated..."
I think you're both looking at this from too narrow a perspective.
Existing homes are far more competitive in terms of location, too. Consider: Where are all those new homes? Out where Jesus lost his sandals.
Existing homes are far closer to population centers, which means better access to jobs, shopping, established school systems, and a variety of other services. Sales and prices would hold up better for existing homes regardless of price, simply because they offer better value.
And look at the NYT chart comparing existing home sales and new home sales. Existing home sales don't seem to be anywhere near "recession" levels, while new home sales are beyond recession levels.
My point: What does this illustrate except the magnitude of the speculation in new homes? Which, by the way, is why Case-Shiller makes things look so much worse than they are, because that turnover in those new homes, bought at the peak of price and now being sold under duress only a short time later, is so heavily weighted.
Sebastian
Stabilized. That little rightward blip means stabilized?
Only all the people that sold all the materials to all the people that leased out all of the heavy equipment to all the people that built all the homes that sold to all the people that bought all of the homes are effected, a flesh wound.
Sebastian - Welcome back.
Some of that better-situated housing stock is also less desireable for other reasons: size, efficiency, quality of schools, crime, etc. All of those factors, components of "location, location, location" are present for the 'normal" numbers too - I think they average out, and CR's analysis of the important distinction makes more sense.
Ref to Fearless Fosdick?
YLSP (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 8:11 am
... seems like CR has been ahead of banking on this drum.
Of the 135,000 completed but unsold new homes at the end of May, nearly half had been sitting for a year or more. The median age of such homes was 11.5 months, an unprecedented figure.
That isn't the half of it. HBs have been dribbling out "completions" from a massive stock of nearly complete new houses. There's a lot of reasons for this, most reasonable business decisions not market manipulation. Of course at a certain level market manipulation is also a legitimate business practice as well. Keeping their potential inventory "on the pinks" gives them flexibility in making changes for customers and lowers taxes and likely conforms to existing loan covenants. This is the ultimate game of chicken. There's maybe enough room for 1/2-1/3rd the number of homebuilders we currently have. The HBs and their banks are all trying desperately to be the last one standing. IMO this will kill all of them. The survivors will be encumbered with crushing debt in a low profit business that has laughably low barriers to entry.
volker: Sorry I was just trying to make a comment on point in this article.
NYT uses a graph from haver analytics that I wanted to link to. Maybe I can find it off of the haver site.
Didn't find it. Found something more interesting. Federal Bank of Chicago: Why has Home Ownership Fallen Among the Young? Dated March 6 but I don't remember seeing this before, mostly since I get all of this via CR. Maybe upon reading I'll understand why it was never excerpted... and blogged about.
bobn... but why should that person have to see your comments if you Ignored him/her,
that's Grand Ayatollah stuff... you should lose your right to have your comments broadcast to the outcast...
...
JuvvieD, at least the guy knows you walked away, but if he's behind the hidden ply of information
how do you know he ignored you...
....
yes I agree ignore is different ...than Ignore...
I'm just saying that to allow people to play Little Hitlers
without consequence is not equitable
redst8r: "is it possible to get the actual numbers for the graph in question as opposed to the percent change month to month?
New and existing home sales are published as actual (sort of) numbers. I'd like to relate that to the percent change chart."
Sure. One of things I actually like about this blog is that the source data for the charts CR posts is almost always available for free online and can be quickly and easily downloaded into a spreadsheet.
Existing homes sales from the NAR:
Existing-Home Sales
New home sales from the Census Bureau:
here
Sebastian
Rob Dawg,
From the Haver site again.
New Home Sales Stay Low as Prices Firm
You can see new homes are still ~ 2003-2004 prices. It looks like the inventory is coming down; although that's not what the other chart was showing. I imagine the prices will start to decline again (it looks like the graphs in this link are seasonally adjusted).
I'm just saying that to allow people to play Little Hitlers
without consequence is not equitable
Isn't Ignoring you and not learning about ladyboys punishment enough? What worse consequence could there be?
FD: I came in late on that and chose not to track back to see the full discussion.
[CR's analysis of the important distinction makes more sense]
Than Sebastian's ? What a shock! Of course it does. Why would that ratio stay constant for 30 yrs and all of a sudden gap? It's because we have never had national price declines because we never had years of income declines & debt rocketing to the moon at the same time as massive home price increases. CR is 100000% correct and Sebastian, well, he's merely maintaining his unblemished record of missing the entire point.
Sebastian, apply the Wright Model B to housing. It worked so well to predict a severe recession/depression.
bobn... but why should that person have to see your comments if you Ignored him/her,
That is their choice. They can ignore me back. Somehow, I expect both parties to survive.
Does it really matter if it's mutual consent dissent, or one-sided in your favor?
bobn... how would they know unless your name turns brown or red or black...
Rob, I'm sorry, your response was a big suck up to CR... start your own blog, the rules of CR... etc...
Well, I, for one, appreciate the stories of Duke.
Gives a nice pause in realizing how incredibly screwed our eCONomy and country is.
Ignore whomever you want.
The loss, or gain, is yours to keep.
And thanks again, to CR and coop for the best damn economics blog on the web...
This CR suck-up brought to you by HomeGnome.
HomeGnome = Angry Saver?
Come on, I'm HomeGnome.
Not HomeDad or Angry Saver or even, Juvie...
Conclusion from Fed Bank of Chicago paper linked above (the model descriptions might be some nice honey to those math modeling freaks out there).
To our knowledge, our paper is the first to draw the connection between heightened
income risk and lower home ownership. We think it has important implications for
public policy. To the extent that heightened income risk is here to stay, then we should
expect aggregate home ownership rates to begin to decline going forward. If such a
decline is the optimal response of households to an increase in risk, then policy makers
should be wary of introducing market distortions to offset the decline. On the other
hand, if high rates of home ownership are viewed as a desirable public policy objective,
for example as discussed in Glaeser and Shaprio (2002), then existing institutions and
regulations designed to boost home ownership will need to be rethought.
Agreed Gnome.
On point: my builder buddies houses are in a nice area, close in, and
are coming up on their uninhabited but c. o.-ed 2nd birthdays. Schools as good
as they get. Gated community, Etc, etc. He's over-priced them and lowered the
prices behind the mkt. He is paying assn dues, taxes, interest and insurance.
If he'd lowered the prices when I told him to, they'd be sold.
He builds better than code.
bearly said: "Why would that ratio stay constant for 30 yrs and all of a sudden gap? It's because we have never had national price declines because we never had years of income declines & debt rocketing to the moon at the same time as massive home price increases. CR is 100000% correct and Sebastian, well, he's merely maintaining his unblemished record of missing the entire point.
Sebastian, apply the Wright Model B to housing. It worked so well to predict a severe recession/depression."
Well, a reasonable person might look at the situation like this: In the tech stock crash, the Nasdaq hit a peak that it never regained after a drop of more than -75% from the top. The SP500 did regain its price highs after a drop of only about 50%.
The difference between the two indices? The Nasdaq was filled with the stocks of highly speculative companies, the SP500 had a much larger proportion of stocks representing companies with sound businesses.
Lumping together all houses without making any distinctions is a little shallow for a blog noted for its attention to detail, isn't it?
Sebastian
Didn't realize others have started to refer to it as the eCONomy as well...
Chicken Big types look a lot like doom & gloom types did 10 years ago, hopelessly out of step with reality.
Wife got me a dart board for my birthday yesterday.
No ducks.
YouTube - Ducks having a conversation
What does this 33 second video have to do with economics?
Nada.
But it made me feel good.
NEWSFLASH:
The Housing Market is still bombing...
Well, I, for one, appreciate the stories of Duke.
Agreed, which makes it all the more puzzling why the Ignore feature is an issue. Why do you want to interact with someone who would ignore you? There are more than a few people who would see it as a beneficial self-selection.
Nemo is having his car serviced.
(I think of the CR comment section as my own personal Twitter.)
I don't care what anyone says, that there is a valued comment.
ZeroHedge has interesting update on their most recent post:
Zero Hedge will filter the data and forward our work product directly to appropriate Attorney General offices and local FBI branch offices. In retrospect, approaching the SEC and FINRA is futile, as they are both as much an integral part of the system as the perpetrators they are supposed to protect against. We're slowly learning that fact. And we are very, very pissed off.
So...
Dear CDS trader talking on the phone to your sales coverage discussing insider information on a deal while your bored analyst is eavesdropping...
Dear Senior Vice President at the strip club boasting to your subordinates how you misspent tens of thousands of taxpayer and investor dollars on strip clubs and prostitutes currying favor for the client, to catch that elusive multi-million deal so you can buy the third vacation home you will never frequent...
Dear General Counsel receiving sexual favors from the blonde assistant in exchange for promises of advancement that never come...
Dear Chief Executive Officer having an affair with the lady at the cosmetics section in that 5th Avenue store, while your wife and 3 children wait at home...
Dear retail broker guaranteeing your 70 year old client that investing in this particular BBB+ rated CDO will never lose money, just to hurry up and do the trade in the next 5 minutes...
Dear sell-side analyst telling your equity salesmen over shots of Grey Goose at Marquee just how crappy the REIT that you just upgraded is...
(and yes, you all know who you are)
...Please look well around you, and pray that you did not piss off any of the people close to you, who know every move you make, and every word you speak... sleep well tonight, because tomorrow your face just may make the proverbial front page of the Wall Street Journal...or Zero Hedge if the former is just a little conflicted.
If i'm ever on Holiday in Cambodia and get into a fight in a bar there, will it look something like the bar fight in "Airplane"?
Micheal Jackson is still dead.
The housing mkt is still dead.
The realtor as the closing was talking about business.
My firm has been around a long time. Since "the first one".
Great depression, I would assume.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/27/2009 - 8:47 am
He builds better than code.
All the children are above average. This is a serious problem. The stuff built 2004 on is mostly crap. Even the high end crap is still crap. Don't get me wrong, I'm not much of a construction snob but All those new houses are just not going to age gracefully. That's deflationary in the short term as they depreciate due to condition issues and then they become inflationary millstones as maintenance costs impact OER.
He builds better than code.
That's actually saying something in South Florida post-Andrew...pre-Andrew, not so much.
don't remember a bar fight in Airplane
but you seldom see bar fights here unlike Saigon,
it's too dangerous... like hanging out at after hours
bars on say Amsterdam & 105th in '88 in NYC,
always expect someone to be packin'
Can someone tell me if this new cap-n-trade is likely to pass in the Senate? Giving the contention and the way current business lobby holds more sway over the Senate, I imagine it won't pass without considerable concessions. Yet; I don't understand why media focus was so huge on the House vote: its only 1/2 of the legislative body and less prone to big business. So if this bill is DoA in the Senate (since most likely there is a shitload of pork in it to get people to vote for it in the House)... why is its passage and why will its likely death be news?
Maybe my tea-reading glasses have the wrong tinge this week...
The sight of seeing Juan6pack stapling Tyvek to particle chipboard during the construction process ensures your new home has been built with only the finest materials available on the marketplace...
Don't forget the sulfurous Chinese drywall.
The Great Drywall of China?
And those weird composite structures they use instead of beams. Reminds me of the fact they okayed poly for plumbing instead of copper.
Particle board was outlawed in Fla after Andrew. And the law was obeyed.
Still some there from pre-Andrew on houses that weren't destroyed, or only had one
side destroyed.
Very few all wood houses. Most have cinderblock at least on the first floor. My house
has cinderblock on first floor, wood on second, with cedar planks on the outside.
House seems reasonably well built.
Now the house we rebuilt after Andrew. I think I'd stay in another Andrew. We could
have survived wet and scared in the master closet. No shutters. We turned that
master closet into something of a safe room with the drywall over half inch marine
ply over studs placed only 12 inches apart with plywood on the ceiling too behind the
drywall and tar paper over that with foam stuff around the light fixture, and then the
regular roof over that. We got steel shutters and used wood studs, not those stupid
aluminum ones. The weak point is, as always, the roof. So I'm pretty sure the buyer could stay there less wet and less scared.
I had a conversation a while back with a guy who does excavation. We were talking about the quality of these 'mushroom' tract homes. He shook his head and said he could stand outside with a sharp knife and poke it through the interior wall.
@Dawg - excellent point. Aka GYOFB. Which I don't have much grounds to say, but the sentiment appeals.
C
The quality of construction went up after Andrew, and even the lousy construction
is less lousy.
You should see the ceiling beams on my mom's workman's house in Highlandtown in West Baltimore in the basement. 4 x 6s. I guess wood was cheaper then.
YLSP,
I am watching it closely to determine when entry back into solar would be prudent to catch that next wave.
If we are serious, it would be a big wave upwards for solar, natty gas, and uranium. Losers would include coal and oil.
But then, when is congress ever on target?
A crash in oil prices over the next two weeks would put the pressure right back on them to do nuthin special, and tell us to like it.
I still think if the credit card companies shut down the next leg of consumer credit the green shoots wither fast in credit drought.
In other words, a lot of lost consumption is about to be manifest in a new consumption horizon for the US.
As for banning- well, if a person is really offensive, and keeps on offending to no purpose, that is just disruptive.
Duke snarking R.D. -who has admittedly stated his preference for CR's policies as reactionary is quite comical.
R.D. has thrown a lot of bombs in his day, as have I, but plain old personal stuff starts to wear out a welcome.
Frequent violations of Godwin's Law simply start to look like attn whoring, and are also a waste of electrons. Stormfront sites are elsewhere, and that is where that should be.
This site has been quite enjoyable, but a little careful oversight is not censorship.
After all, people quote a lot of nonmainstream thinking here- but after a while a concord emerges of what happens next- which for my own thinking and planning is quite useful.
Someday this war's gonna end...
@Liz - my S.Florida experience comes from time spent with the former in-laws - who lived in early 50s CBS housing stock...South Miami "proper" and the Grove - that stuff was indestructable, and the roofs stayed put. A few cracked windows (no shutters) from a few stray asphalt shingles, but otherwise phenomenal. Those interlocking cement roof tiles are the shiznit.
The early evidence is that the composite joists are pretty good...I think the big deal is you really have to keep that stuff dry.
Bar fight was in Naked Gun.
I owned a 50s cbs house in South Miami. (Actually it was a hole in the
doughnut of South Miami, due to stuff that happened in GD I). It was north
of the zone of destruction, but is still there just fine.
Yes you are right that those houses are well built, but they really weren't tested
by Andrew. My second house was directly in the north eye wall, which is is the strongest part
of a hurricane. Anemometer at the zoo blew away at 164 mph.
The zoo is close enough to the house that before everything got built up, we could
hear the lions roaring at night. South Miami was well north of ground zero.
"it's probably just me but I have lived in so many countries where dissent is gagged
and therefore I never place a single person on Ignore..."
It's not just you. Ignore the "ignore".
The rating function was useful for the 500 comment thread days, though. Even Michael added a tad, incredibly.
AllenM,
Did someone else look up when you first posted to CR? I sent you a PM with the earliest post I found of yours... might be around here?.
Well 105th and B'way had the halfway to hell house. My college roommate lived on that block for 6 months. He thought he was in a permanent zombie movie.
What city yogster?
1 currency...
the police would not even cruise bwt Columbus and CPW on 105 it was so out of control (NYC)
do you remember the Night Cafe?
AllenM first post, I believe is was before that ylsp...it was other wise known as before paulson...
Duke, I enjoy your stories..Wish I was over there because for some reason Asian ladies love my smile....we would get in trouble....Ignore is easier in the head then clicking a link
Just checked my email- thanks YSLP- I believe that is one of the earliest ones.
I think I have a few with a slightly different handle.
Three years. It feels like this crisis has taken a lifetime, with seven more years to go.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"...the shiznit."
?
I think that means very good, Pavel.
@ Credit Criminal
Asian ladies love my smile
Are you sure those were ladies?
"...I think that means very good, Pavel."
I thought it might from the context, Liz. But where does it come from?
YSLP-
how is this one for prophetic!!!
AllenM wrote on Tue, 10/24/2006 - 3:10 pm
In reading the paper another fact that struck me like a truck is that nearly TWENTY million mortgages were written in 2004-2005. Ten percent going south would imply two million repo houses over the next three years. Remeber some fixed will go bad too with low equity cushions.
I am beginning to believe the fed is going to have to lower rates to ease the pain of the hot to not regions and to cushion this with higher inflation- can the $ live with 4%inflaiton for a decade?
interesting times.
Right on track three years later!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
International Bailout Brings Us Closer to Economic Collapse
International Bailout Brings Us Closer to Economic Collapse by Ron Paul
@ Citizen
Good Call!
AllenM writes:
Moral of the story- if you have an arm and want to keep the house- get to the bank before appraisers get the new lower comps from the first wave of foreclosures. Commenting from the other article- if three to five percent of the 50 million with mortages get foreclosed- that is still an additional million houses on a very soft market. If these are not done preforeclosure, but instead on the courthouse steps for whatever they bring....consider the hottest markets may get the coldest- as was what happened in the late 80s through the early 90s-
Ready for a bit of a Phoenix meltdown?
The eventual resurection is a given- but money flown away to default heaven is not restored to the losers.
Hang on tight- here comes the downside on the roller coaster....
AllenM | 10.24.06 - 4:57 pm | #
Allenm writes:
Dry,
I kinda meant that 4 percent inflation number to be rhetorical, but on further reflection I think it could be doable as long as the foreign baggie holders keep propping us up. China now controls 1.25 trillion of our debt...till they offhedge with derivatives. That day when the deliver out all of their positions is when the earthquake happens and we all wake up a lot poorer than the night before. Otoh- I don't really need much from china anymore, and I think that the next poor assembly plant de jure can take their place- Upper Volta anyone?
Anything that has an international market will immediately go skyhigh, but as long as they give the people cheap gas and cheap houses- all is well...
well, ominous. but then I am well aware that the day is coming.
Allenm | 10.24.06 - 11:45 pm | #
AllenM writes:
It's the 70's show folks- with housing and the stock market as early gainers- soon to be followed by commodities, and everybody's favorite-wages!!!
I lived through this growing up, and to paraphrase Ronnie Raygun- Here we go again.
Just waiting for the Volcker to know when the mess will end. 15% interest rates anybody?
But first our old friend the misery index must be resurrected and frontpage...currently about 10- going to 20...30?
But this will take years to play out- in some silly fashion I am hoping the republicans maintain control of congress to ensure that they get maximum blame.
FDR in 2012!
House prices will once again seem cheap- just remember the $75 hamburger is coming...
AllenM | 10.30.06 - 1:17 pm | #
Some of the earliest ones... although its strange as what I saw on hoocoodanode wasn't in my personal archives off of haloscan. Either way 10/24/2006 was earliest date I could find for your posts...
Er, my slight dyslexia is showing --
YLSP YLSP YLSP
Three times should fix that first sign of elderly dementia- oh wait- I have always had that problem.
Stwge
The firings, layoffs, temporary and otherwise, etc are coming closer
and closer to home. Lots will be laid off here when the shutte
closes down.
Speaking of which the hub is off trying to get the launch done again,
because the weather didn't cooperate. He doesn't think it will cooperate
again. If that happens they will take a rest day, and try monday.
So O could keep some shoots from blackening by keeping the
shuttle alive another year. One more year or a year and
a half is really all it can be kept alive. But the program needs
more money to do that. I think they'd like to use the money
for the new spacecraft instead.
Isn't it interesting how very important interest rates were in the 1970's and 1980's downturns, but they mean bupkis this time around?
Different kettle of fish altogether, economically.
I think he was trying to be polite and not saying
It's the shit!
I wonder if haloscan ate some of the earlier stuff- some of the comments from some of those articles had more in them.
It was a lot quieter then.
I do so miss Tanta.
@ Pavel
"...the shiznit."
Hip Hop Term.
I first heard Snoop Doggy Dogg use it.
South Miami was well north of ground zero.
Yes, definitely - I remember driving south towards Homestead and seeing things getting progressively worse down through Kendall.
...and yes, I was trying to be polite...those tiles are just wonderful. I think the weight really drives up the construction costs, but they are super-durable, and very wind-resistant. The terracotta "spanish" tiles are nice, but I believe they are somewhat easier to damage and require more maintenance. Same weight. I'm sorry, I'll avoid trying to borrow slang colloquialisms I haven't fully mastered anyway...
Gotham. I frequented the Time cafe downtown but not the Night. Barbecue Bob and the Spareribs for UWS blues.
Duke you provoked an idea: if I win enough in the zero sum casino I'll endow an annual prize for the most significant contribution (in someone's judgment) to an open-source world currency. All entries must be open-source (non-copyrightable, paid forward...).
Allen M, I thought you were around in early 06 too..
HomeGnome- I hope they were ladies...did have a bartender call out a guy/girl trying to pick me up in The Wave bar in honolulu.. it looked nice, of course 24 hours of partying, surfing, eating and plundering could have made me blind....
the night beckons for the duke...
hopefully my head will be attached to my body in the morning
... I have a sneaking suspicion of a personal Black Swan moment in the offing
an aside - spoke to a few western contractors over here from Saigon looking for work,
things sound like they are tight there....
12 years vs. 150 years.
What's it going to be?
Prosecutors ask judge to imprison Madoff for life
| Reuters
I say he'll get 25 years.
@ Credit Criminal
Strap those beer goggles on tight, man!
You too, Duke!
Pavel - it is a hip-hop term, though I'm not really a hip-hop person (actually, I'm very white with tastes that run more to Louis Jordan or the Hot-5) so I can't say for sure, but yes, I think "sean puffy coombs" invented it.
Those are amazing windspeeds - your house was clearly right in it! The in-laws were just a couple of blocks off Bird Rd (40th).
I used to live 3 blocks off Bird Road!
Hmmm, how about 25 years. Then, should he live so long, he could be thrown out on the street at 95, so nobody has to pay to take care of him.
And he has to submit to intense sessions with shrinks and law enforcement and accountants and anybody else who has an interest in the mental
condition of someone who can do something like this. No cooperation, the
term goes up to 35 years.
Pavel -
Urban Dictionary - shiznit
where I'm going beer goggles would be considered self abuse
The wall between the bedroom and dining room collapsed, even though it had
2 heavy wall units on one side and a dresser, lower, which would have provided
some bracing. The wall units fell over on the dining room table. The sliding
glass doors in that bedroom blew in, the roof did stay on in that area. Not the
shingles, of course.
And he has to submit to intense sessions with shrinks and law enforcement and accountants and anybody else who has an interest in the mental
condition of someone who can do something like this
More likely he'll spend many years in prison teaching thousands of miniMadoffs who will pillage upon their release.
@ Duke
Alright, be careful out there or take your ladyboy security detail with you...
UM law for me, in the 80's. 3br condo, pool, parking, safe, near Red Road, $700/ month. Ahhhh.
I'm out to the Guggenheim for an exhibit of F.L. Wright. Can the content overcome the surroundings for a change? Or will it be a house of mirrors...
Really, compared to the amount of damage he did, his personal
goodies were minor. Maybe he just liked the idea of getting away
with it.
Me too, graduated in '76. Did you have Hausler?
yes, I think "sean puffy coombs" invented it.
I doubt that. You guys need to get out more and hang with a young urban crowd.
Not if I hafta listen to hip hop or rap.
OT:
Now this is some change we can all believe in:
White House Weighs Exec Order On Detention - CBS News
Either you believe in Human Rights or you don't...
Not to mention the US Constitution
Off to smoke some more "Hopium"
OMG they killed kenny // OMG they "serviced" Nemo
I don't use ignore. But I admit to skimming long BS posts from names that I don't recognize. TPTB have shown how well "ignore" works.
edit
I avoided both Hausler and wife.
I heard great things about Dean Mentshikoff, but she died just before classes started. Dean Doyle was not strong. Only professor I liked was Fischl (post '76). Massey was a character, and Oxman a caricature, but entertaining at least.
@sdtfs - Ok, like I said, I promise not to try to use terms I'm not appropriately qualified to use.
@Liz - this was Coral Lake, SW62nd Ave. Used to love getting a spinach and bacon omelette, among other things, at Allen's. It was a nice neighborhood. Kind of the Gables, but without the price, pretension and architectural review. Those houses were small, though...hard to imagine going back to a one bathroom lifestyle.
Lawerliz:
What is going to replace the shuttle near term? I don't think they even have a replacement on the drawing board yet. Are we just going to rely on the Russians? IMO, I do think they need to kill the project based on safety concerns. They were never designed to last this long. I speak from personal experience. The sub I was on was supposed to be de-commissioned in 2001. Her replacement (Seawolf #8) was never built, so she has been extended to 2015. The computers are new, but the critical hardware is all beyond design life (as my auxiliaryman senior chief used to say). After a certain point, the risks outweigh the benefits.
Well, it's not like there is any other business to attend to:
California
June 26, 2009
Assembly says farewell to Jackson, Fawcett, then adjourns
The Assembly failed to make demonstrable progress Friday in closing the state's gaping budget deficit, but it did say goodbye to singer Michael Jackson and actress Farrah Fawcett.
With the clock ticking toward a Tuesday deadline to take action so the state can avoid issuing IOUs, Assembly members again failed to approve a bill that would make $11.4 billion in spending cuts across a wide range of state programs. The bill was also defeated on Wednesday.
But before adjourning until Saturday morning, Assembly members stood for a moment of silence to mark the deaths of Jackson and Fawcett on Thursday.
"Many of us grew up with the music of the Jacksons," said Assemblyman Sandre Swanson, D-Oakland. "... I think it's time for us to recognize him as the king of pop in the most positive way we can."
Assemblyman Mike Davis, D-L.A., then rose to ask the house to adjourn in memory of Fawcett.
"I think most of all, for a lot of the men around the world, Farrah Fawcett will be remembered for her work as America's favorite cover girl," Davis said. "There may even be some in the body here who might remember if they go in the garage to get those old posters of Farrah Fawcett, one of America's most beautiful blonds."
The Senate, meanwhile, took up routine confirmation of some gubernatorial appointees. Senate Democrats then went into caucus.
Bwahahahahaha!
I thought Tim Iaconos graphic with distressed EHS removed from the EHS graphic plotted vs New Home sales was interesting.
The Mess That Greenspan Made: More reasons not to believe the NAR
FYI on the topic of HVCC and the NAR, I noticed a bill was just introduced on Thursday calling for a moratorium.
Effective Demand: Bill to put a 18 month moratorium on HVCC introduced.
HomeGnome:
Same same NYS senate. On Friday the senate came into session long enough for a moment of silence for Fawcett and Jacko. None of the critical legislation that has been piling up since the power struggle began last month was even considered.
Paterson: Forget the weekend -- Page 1 -- Times Union - Albany NY
Maybe NYS Senate is puffing heavily on the "Hopium" too?
@ Effective
So 18 months to appraise property at any damn value they please?
Bottom of the 3rd and the Heavy Number Hitters are up to Bat!
Just weeks after the King of Pop passed away, the King of Currency succumbed to natural causes.
The late dear departed dollar asked that contributions be made in it's likeness, in front of the denomination assembled in it's honor.
Appalled bearers were everywhere...
Either you believe in Human Rights or you don't...
Not to mention the US Constitution
You would think there's a bright line there, but I'm not seeing it.
Obama seems more Bushlike as time passes.
On the 'ignore user' function, while I do use it sparingly, I usually read blog comments without signing in, as I did this one, which means I'm exposed to those I would ignore were I posting comments myself. It seems to keep things in balance.
I guess we will get to see what happens when government ceases effective
governing. What is wrong with these people? NY and Cali
are walking off the cliff to oblivion. Is anyone thinking of starting another
party?
It looks more and more like late Republican Rome.
There was a bill introduced in Fla which would require citizen vote
on every single amendment to the master plan. This is ridiculous
on its face, except that the citizens know they can't trust the pols
to do anything but what developers want. I hope it passes, so
no overbuilding happens for the next 5-10 years. I realize this is
tough for people who have a legitamate investment or need a
minor tweaking of some rule, but I am sick of the buying off
part.
So O sees this as a political end run around the congress who doesn't want any of
these people incarcerated in their districts? Unintended consequences.
More evidence of disfunctionality.
How many politicians have been laid off lately?
I'd love to see the daily unemployment numbers go something like this:
U.S. House of Representatives -57
State Senators -14
Has Jas permanently disappeared 'cause he's embarassed
cause he's clearly been in treasury error and perhaps, just perhaps,
a bit dopey?
Come back Jas, I need to hear a dope-rant!
How many politicians have been laid off lately?
How many legislative bodies (e.g., California) have reduced the size of their own staffs?
Obama seems more Bushlike as time passes.
Yep. Same Big-Bank policies. Now the same unlimited detention policies.
HomeGnome: Love the "Hopium"!
Well, somebody could follow them each around and record and
publish all their sexual peccadillos. That would get some out,
unless they were REALLY walking the
Appalachian Trail.
Are the Cali-folks still walking around oblivious whilst we shiver for
them?
Careful what you wish for, JD.
Did somebody say "dope rant"?
YouTube - Bill Hicks - Drugs and Evolution
have reduced the size of their own staffs?
Just Gov. Sanford down in Argentina...
I'll be here all week folks.
Unless you ignore me.
You come to expect sexual skullduggery from the party that went into a tither when a titty came out on tv, hypocritical flyovers...
A sign of the times?? We go from "Flip that house" to "Real Estate Intervention"?
Dude where's my equity.
You could have so extorted Sanford & Sum for a lot of money, but this was a dish of revenge served cold, a take-out.
People in my neck of the woods are capitulating.
Except my developer buddy.
Balto is only (only!) about 30-33% off, I guess capitulation comes at
45% off!
Obama has not disappoint me at all. Promise everyone they get what they want, once in office do as he dam well pleases. Total Flake from the start. A very weak one at that.
Ben, I'm passing the "Hopium" pipe over your way...
Executive orders of Barack Obama (20)
Executive orders of George W. Bush (284)
-interesting comparison.
Here's the story of a Argentinean lady
Who was bringing up two very lovely girls.
Both of them had hair of gold, like their mother,
The youngest one in curls.
Here's the story, of a governor named Sanford,
Who was busy with four boys of his own,
They were five men, living all together,
Yet they were all alone.
Till the one day when the lady met this fellow
And they knew it was much more than a hunch,
That this group would somehow form a family.
That's the way they all became the Sanford Bunch.
The Sanford Bunch,
That's the way we all became aware of the Sanford Bunch.
The Sanford Bunch.
just for you liz. It turns out I saved (wanted to keep track of his investment advice) one of his last posts.
Jas Jain (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 11:49 pm reply Ignore user --
Rob Dawg,
I do diversify as a matter of prudence. Have done for years.
My proportion of the USTs is the highest and Swiss is the lowest in years. I fully expect long UST bond yield to make new lows over the next 6-18 months. I am a professional speculator and I do hedge when prudence calls for it. I hedged when long bond hit 135. Right now I am short 110P-135C strangle (naked).
Jas
In the residential foreclosure world, as discussed here frequently, there's been an ongong conversation on the number of homeowners who are walking away versus the number being forced out of their homes. The following came from a column in the L.A. Times this morning that broached an idea I think is DOA, namely forgiveness of principal.
How many homeowners in that situation would walk away? A new study by a team of researchers including Luigi Zingales, a University of Chicago finance professor, estimated that 26% of current mortgage defaults are "strategic" -- meaning homeowners chose to default even though they could afford their loans.
Is it time for underwater homeowners to be given a get-out-of-debt-free card? - Los Angeles Times
OT: From the Ripoff Files
USC-Columbia Tuition to Go Up 3.6%
In addition, nearly none of the several hundred adjunct faculty who teach at the university will be rehired, Pastides said. As a result, full-time faculty will teach more, and in some cases some highly specialized classes may not be available.
COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) -- South Carolina athletic director Eric Hyman has received a five-year contract extension.
Hyman did not receive a raise on his deal, which guarantees him $430,000 a year. Hyman and university president Harris Pastides both cited the troubled economic climate for holding off on a raise.
Well, Thank GAWD, we got football!
Roll on Columbia, role over.
"but they mean bupkis this time around?"
no, the fed is just infinitely more brazen about "printing" and buying up the auctions. they're also less transparent than ever. it is amazing, technology has done nothing to make them more transparent and accountable - quite the opposite.
The SEC is a tough conference. Gotta stay competitive . . . or at least in the middle of the pack.
This past week two people I know sold their condos here in the South Loop of Chicago and other friends who have theirs on the market and are spending more time wondering the neighborhood while their units are being shown. There are several new condo buildings nearby that are pretty empty. I discussed the pickup in condo sales with the local community banker. He thinks the pickup in sales of existing condos at the expense of new ones represents the fear that new units may not have enough sold to pay for monthly assessments, end up being section 8 properties, or otherwise cheapened or end up BK. Older buildings have fewer units for sale and appear to be more "stable" offering less risk that the association (HOA) can't pay its bills and there is less risk that a wholesaler will purchase multiple units and increase the percentage of renters.
Yes, Liz, they're still oblivious. The latest meme is, "The middle class pays most of the freight, but doesn't get any of the benefit for state services. So why should we care if they cut money for the poor, disabled, etc., etc.? I don't need any of that anyway! Live within our means!" They'll make an exception for state parks, which they do know they use.
You could endlessly debate this -- it's Saturday and the heat wave finally got here to Paradise, so I don't feel like it. But that's the mindset.
Real estate, too. The subprime areas are hellholes, but the privileged middle/upper class folks along the coast -- those with good income, and those who simply bought when RE was cheap -- still believe the economy will straighten out after a brief unpleasantness and RE prices will resume their steady price upwards.
It's all that self-esteem training. Tells you you can make a miracle just by thinking positively.
Pigskin can mean football or relatives, depending upon where you are in the country.
liz writes: "It looks more and more like late Republican Rome."
we all know what happened after that experiment devolved
re: jas--he was a created avatar, as is the Duke of Con, who I suspect is the same person
global warming legislation is stimulative, right?
I've had a few beers here; but that pig looks mighty tasty!
American experiment is coming to close...maybe you fuckers actually will have a real culture in the future, instead of borrowing it (starting from Statue of Liberty)... who knows.
timmyone - where r u from?
Come on Americans, your culture is at least 230 years old. Way older than most European nations have been independent. You are Michael Jackson with heart attack, pretending be young forever. Even France has whatever 7th Republic already. Maybe it is time to grow up? Really grow up, instead of this childish Temple of Mammon "who got most toys" crap?
Even Romans with all their greediness created something, became something better but Americans...gatorade bottle in 2540 in a grave? Come on.
@burnside
Thanks for the tip
duke
its jeffery mcdonald said crime took place at fort bragg,nc