CR edit: I missed a month in Dec 1993, so it is just over 15 years (I changed the text).

•Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was the highest in 15 years.

Well, when your not making your house payment you've got a lot more money to play with.

Edit: I changed the number too. Now no one will be the wiser; well except for the fact we've both mentioned it.

Wealth redistribution is not stimulus.

Saving soon to be devalued dollars is one way to dispose of one's personal income, certainly.

that % savings chart speaks volumes

the american consumer is freaked the f*ck out

as rosenberg walked out the door at merrill, he offered his 10 most important forecasting guidelines, noting the most important one was:

"get the u.s. consumer right, and everything else will fall into place"

connect the dots

There is no net saving taking place. The government is borrowing much more than the taxpayer is producing and saving.

We continue to get poorer.

Incorrect. When low income people get a lump sum "special" payment, the tend to spend it rather save it thus the stimulus factor is initiated.

The only reason the savings rate is up is because no one is paying capital gains tax anymore. This number is so flawed it is a wonder anyone with a brain uses it.

Income-Expenses-Taxes=savings rate.

Doesn't count 401(k) as savings (this is probably true now). Doesn't count capital gains as income, but counts the capital gain tax as a deduction...

Love the government numbers that mean nothing.

Wealth redistribution is not stimulus.

Rob Dawg,

It's not wealth redistribution, it is borrowing. Tax increases and spending cuts would redistribute wealth, but CONgress doesn't have the stomach for either. Talk about regulatory capture.

We are borrowing from the future to legitimize fraud and faux wealth. When the future comes and is smaller than anticiapted, there will be hell to pay.

The five weekends (and fridays) in may are going to play havoc on june's consumer spending # 's.

You are discounting the ability of the rich to change behavior. The stimulus is a one time effect. Changed behavior is forever. That's why California is seeing dramatically lower payroll taxes. In anticipation of higher taxes and slower refunds people have increased deductions and shifted compensation out of taxable categories.

unqualified,

I actually think the govenment's definition of savings has merit. Unrealized gains are not savings. One cannot count future income from stocks , bonds or real estate which might not materialize as savings.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Too many paid too much for too little value. Many now see that our future is going to be smaller than they anticipated just two years ago - hence the huge decline in perceived wealth. No way can unrealized gains based on assumed future revenue streams ever be considered savings in my book.

I have to believe that the inability of some to go further and further into debt is what is showing up here, as opposed to more actual saving. by non-debt junkies. But what exactly is the difference from an economic standpoint? And where does bankruptcy fit in? Since debt forgiveness through bankruptcy OR non-recourse foreclosure eliminates debts could THAT be part of the "increase in savings?"

If the question is: "how many people have problems with repaying debts," the fact that the average person has more savings than debts tells us very little indeed.

That may be so, but to not count the single largest savings vehicle in US, the 401k, seems a bit senseless...

This number was good when there weren't qualifed plans and when savings actually went into a "savings account."

I guess there will need to be some revisions (downward as opposed to the always upward) to the durable goods order:

Boeing Loses Qantas Order for 15 787s as Travel Wanes

Boeing Loses Qantas Order for 15 787s as Travel Wanes (Update4) - Bloomberg.com

Ciao
MS

Wealth redistribution is contributing to personal income? What about this line from the report? Green shoot?

"Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $12.4 billion in May, compared with a decrease of $0.7 billion in April."

Spend tomorrow's money today... what a novel concept!

Most Americans have never ventured far from home, and a visit to Canada or Mexico is about as daring as it gets. They know the lingua franca of the Yankee dollar, and nothing else.

Keep in mind that the people that got religion and are saving dollars like so many Elmer Gantry's saving souls, represent that rare bird in America nowadays-people with money, not debts.

When they get wiped out is when the fireworks show really gets going...

How much of the "savings" is bet on a carthorse named Green Shoots in the last race at the Wall Street Derby?

My comment still didn't post. Too much trouble Bye.

Give the consumer 3 months and they will be spending again like drunken sailors....

How many more American Recovery and Reinvestment Act checks are to be distributed, and when?

What about the value of the dollar? The dollar is under pressure due to our quickly increasing debt load. The government, by understating inflation, will give off the illusion that their policies are working. They're not. It's only a temporary illusion before reality sets in.

The savings rate is the allocation of current income, not net worth.

Rob Dawg

Income redistribution is stimulus if taken from the wealthy and given to the poor.

The wealthy save money, which has a low velocity, where as the poor spend it, which is high velocity.

This also explains why the period (1950s and 60s) in which the US experienced the highest level of sustained growth also coincided with the most redistributionist tax regime

What America need now is a wealth tax. I propose 1% a year on net asset value above 2 mm

Have they switched out Jacksons yet on the twenty?

Let me guess, Joseph. You haven't got net assets in excess of 2 mm.

josephprice (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 6:35 am

What America need now is a wealth tax. I propose 1% a year on net asset value above 2 mm

To recapture all the changed (tax avoidance) behavior by the rich I mentioned previously.

Your proposal sounds almost word for word the argument used with the introduction of the first income tax. Small and only on the rich.

Gee let's see how US economy is looking into 2011
- Consumer spending going down
- CRE getting crushed
- RRE still tanking
- Continuing Unemployment with U6 likely at 20%
- The MSM and Obama admin doing best to the green shoots economy meme alive
- As America's debt continues to explode U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time  - see defense as top 4 biggest budget item than should be pared as the idiots in US Congress ( House ) just passed $550b Pentagon budget ( nice to see US has its priorities straight )
- China argues to replace US dollar with a "super-sovereign" currency

The wealthy save money, which has a low velocity, where as the poor spend it, which is high velocity.

And now please explain why having a high velocity of money is better than a low velocity. Oh, right, MV = PQ, therefore a higher velocity of money results in a higher measured GDP. Too bad that's just a number - it does go up when the economy is healthy, but that doesn't mean that any and every thing that increases GDP is actually beneficial. Bastiat understood this, but Keynes couldn't wrap his head around it (or more likely Keynes like Krugman just decided that being a tool had a better benefit plan than being an honest man...).

What America need now is a wealth tax.

Or we could just stop propping up asset values.

The savings rate is the ONLY way left for consumers (who still have a job) to say F-U to the banks.......and the Government. I dare say, consumers are also withholding spending to save from paying sales taxes also....IMHO

This says it all if you ask me:

Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $12.4 billion in May, compared with a decrease of $0.7 billion in April.
Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $12.9 billion, compared with a decrease of $12.2 billion; manufacturing
payrolls decreased $9.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $4.9 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls
increased $0.5 billion, compared with an increase of $11.5 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased
$3.9 billion, compared with an increase of $5.7 billion.

What's rising? Income recipients of govt. social programs?

Puh Lease.

Until we reduce debt by drastic amounts among all walks of life and society and govt., fuggedaboutit.

" Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 9:04 am

Wealth redistribution is not stimulus."

I hate to be anal (well, actually I don't - I'm an engineer Wink, but inflationary monetary policy has the potential to redistribute wealth AND be be stimulative. Of course, it can also be a disaster, but we'll have to wait and see.

bbartlog +1
Benefits plan? Heck, Krugman hasn't had a bad word since he sold out for a roast beef dinner.

CR said: "...The May numbers were impacted by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. As an example, payments to seniors increased sharply and “Personal Current Transfers,” increased by $165 billion (annual rate). This boosted personal income...."

But what is also true is that personal income minus transfer payments (like payments to seniors) rose for the second month in a row.

U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sebastian

I still think Krug had "O" splaining' to him the value of positive thinking and speech....a la Deniro in dinner scene from "The Untouchables". A Louisville Slugger is a mighty powerful tool for persuasion.

Incomes and saving rate increased sharply boosted by the stimulus plan.

Does this hurt anyone else's head besides me? Somehow, when we take taxes and feed it back to ourselves, our incomes and savings increase.

bbartlog

I have all that Benthamite utility stuff....but the marginal enjoyment of each dollar is greater for the poor than the rich

However the real story is that both wealth and income inequality have become so extreme that they threaten the sustainability of democracy

It is either redistribution, revolution or plutocratic tyranny

I am happy with of the first two
two

How to measure the leverage of the players...

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Ahmad Hamad Algosaibi & Brothers Co., the Saudi family holding company whose Bahraini bank has defaulted, owes 34.6 billion Saudi riyals ($9.2 billion) to more than 100 banks, two people familiar with the situation said.

The size of Algosaibi’s liabilities “strikes the markets as a surprise,” said Luis Costa, an emerging-markets debt strategist at Commerzbank AG in London. “This is a problem when it comes to buying anything originated from the Middle East, how to properly measure the leverage of players there.”

It has to go up when they double the amount of dollars....the problem is that they don't mention the value of said dollar is cut in half.

Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 6:50 am

" Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 9:04 am
Wealth redistribution is not stimulus."

I hate to be anal (well, actually I don't - I'm an engineer Wink, but inflationary monetary policy has the potential to redistribute wealth AND be be stimulative. Of course, it can also be a disaster, but we'll have to wait and see.

I'm not one to comment on engineer=anal but seriously; I think you are still stuck in "last time." The wealthy are able to redeploy wealth very quickly and deliberately to minimize their exposure to changing economic winds. It is the poor and middle classes that will get tossed up on the rocks by any sea changes be they inflation ot deflation of confiscation.

"The wealthy save money, ..."

Which is also to say they invest money.

"Money Man (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 9:48 am
The savings rate is the ONLY way left for consumers (who still have a job) to say F-U to the banks....."

So, consumers are loaning the banks money for nearly nothing in return, and the banks are loaning it out at 5-6%. Sounds like the banks are taking it in the hiney/ snark

I still think Krug had "O" splaining' to him the value of positive thinking and speech....
Money Man, I think you're right.

Total Federal Reserve balance sheet assets for the week of June 24 of $2,048 billion consisting of:

Zero Hedge: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Update: Week Of June 24

They may be giving it to them in deposits but at least they are not taking it FROM them at 15%.

" Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 9:54 am.....................
I'm not one to comment on engineer=anal but seriously; I think you are still stuck in "last time." "
Actually, the "last time" was the disaster (or it seemed that way at the time) of stagflation to which I was referring. Pales by comparison to today. In any event, it appears that the Fed, et al will not be able to reignite inflation, so the issue is probably moot.

Once again the term Stimulus is not exactly what it is. Saving growth is more indirect banking back stop. Ma & PA savings account is starving with a .5% return and banks are lending at high consumer rates of around 8-9%. More Banker bail out anyone?

Wouldn't the fed reignite inflation just by printing more $$? Is that difficult to do?

shill-

The bottom portion of that post is the real news IMO:

For anyone who wishes to back into the Indirect Purchases calculation from last week, this is the best data. Something tells me the ratio of weekly increase as disclosed on H.4.1 compared to the Indirect Holding table will be around 20%, meaning the Treasury is fudging the Ind Holdings calc by about 80%!

Yesterday I questioned the blog across the curve with the story that they ran about the changes in the rules for classifying and indirect bidder. Now you wouldn't want to change the rules in front of the largest auction ever to skew the results. The response I got was basically: you have no evidence. But it got better...the end result was that John (owner) worked with people at the treasury and they are fine upstanding people....and would never do anything like that.....

Sure they are.

Ciao
MS

" Money Man (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 10:01 am

They may be giving it to them in deposits but at least they are not taking it FROM them at 15%."

For that matter, if we really are in a long term deflationary environment, the real return may actually be better than near zero. Just bein' snarky Wink

Which is also to say they invest money.

Sure they do...in treasuries, in CDOs, in credit default swaps, in derivatives of every shape and color. It's the accumulation of assets far beyond the availability of productive investment opportunities giving an adequate rate of return that's gotten us where we are.

All of which show negative acceleration MoM, no?

Green shoots and leaves...

but the marginal enjoyment of each dollar is greater for the poor than the rich

True that... I'm not opposed to redistribution, but you're proposing a very different reason for it now, no? Marginal enjoyment is a very different foundation than the velocity of money. I could go for the negative income tax that Friedman proposed way back when.

" Outsider (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 10:02 am

Wouldn't the fed reignite inflation just by printing more $$? Is that difficult to do?"

They been trying, and it so far hasn't worked.

Yep, increase that 'savings rate' (earning .5%/ compounded monthly) while still owing on your credit cards (@ 18% or HIGHER/ compounded daily)!
Path to wealth is what that is.

If you think of money as a unit of 'work'. As it should be...then you begin to understand how concentrating and storing this 'work' in less overall productive or tangible areas of the larger economy(financial sector) is bad for everyone.

This hoarding of work and placing it in largely unproductive areas of the economy instead of infrastructure like roads, telecommunications, power distribution,etc. are foolish and unsustainable.

This folly is being compounded by the actions of the Federal Reserve who are supposed to know better.

gotta love the action in PALM this morning.....seems they go with the numbers with the "one-time charges" backed out...

Ciao
MS

Excellent article for CR readers from the Independent:

"A group of pensioners has been accused of kidnapping and torturing a financial adviser who lost over €2m of their savings. "

Leaving Facebook... | Facebook

Someone should be selling the movie rights to this for Eli Roth's first movie. First movie: "Hostel", torturing American male college students. Second movie: torturing American female college students. Third movie: torturing American bankers.

Who needs Quentin Tarantino making movies about Jews scalping Nazis in France when you have this.....

LMFAO...

Alright, so I have been hearing and even seeing here in the comments, we can't see "inflation" without an increase in velocity first.

Can someone tell me whether Zimbabwe saw an increase in velocity ahead of the currency collapse? I think in the case of a loss in confidence in a currency following goods chasing is irrelevant.

" bbartlog (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 10:04 am

but the marginal enjoyment of each dollar is greater for the poor than the rich

True that... I'm not opposed to redistribution, but you're proposing a very different reason for it now, no? Marginal enjoyment is a very different foundation than the velocity of money. I could go for the negative income tax that Friedman proposed way back when."

The "negative income tax" to which you refer exists today as the Earned Income Tax Credit:
Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) Questions and Answers

As for the marginal enjoyment thing, there will always be poor folks. They're just the people at the bottom of the income ladder. As long as a social safety net keeps them from starving in the worst of time, then fine. Giving them money, etc. doesn't buy the economy as a whole that much because the things they really need such as food and clothing just go up in price due to increased demand. It's much like government programs to make college more affordable have placed onerous debt burdens on many college grads; they've in effect made college less affordable.
The key is to have policy encourage a larger pie. Keynesian redistribution generally results in a smaller pie, and as such has been discredited, though there's apparently been a generational shift where a lot of young folks don't remember that, and a bunch of liberal college professors continue to teach his discredited theories as though they were true.

we will not monetize,

Well said. It just slays me that we are pledging our future work to prop up and bailout fraud and faux wealth. I really don't see how anyone can consider this as appropriate let alone the optimal course of action.

Except the holders of the faux wealth that is.

This is great. I'll be going to bed tonight here in Asian with happy thoughts of Germans torturing American bankers. This fills me with deep joy.

"Of course, it can also be a disaster, but we'll have to wait and see."

......the only question then is - when will you be opening your eyes?

bearly,

Zimbabwae had a lot of other bad things going on besides money printing, including confiscation and redistribution of property and farms, severe loss of productivity, a brutal dictatorship, etc. So, GDP goes toward zero and people lose all faith in government and the government backed currency. Hopefully, we won't see those dynamics here.

" Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 10:16 am
"Of course, it can also be a disaster, but we'll have to wait and see."
......the only question then is - when will you be opening your eyes?"

Perhaps when it really affects me. We had a layoff at work, but I survived. My sister-in-law got laid-off, but they're pretty well off without her income, and I live in an area hit not nearly as hard as SoCal, Vegas, FL, etc. I've got my chickens (3.5 mos. till we start getting fresh eggs), goats, garden, etc., and essentially no debt. I thought you said you were well positioned. No?

Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 7:16 am

"Of course, it can also be a disaster, but we'll have to wait and see."
......the only question then is - when will you be opening your eyes?

The coyote never fell until he looked down.

Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 2:04 pm
reply Ignore user
" Outsider (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 10:02 am
Wouldn't the fed reignite inflation just by printing more $$? Is that difficult to do?"
They been trying, and it so far hasn't worked.

The inflation worked. It is the economic growth that did not work, because Bernanke does not understand that inflation does not equal real growth.

" Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 10:18 am

bearly,

Zimbabwae had a lot of other bad things going on besides money printing, including confiscation and redistribution of property and farms, severe loss of productivity, a brutal dictatorship, etc. So, GDP goes toward zero and people lose all faith in government and the government backed currency. Hopefully, we won't see those dynamics here."

Nice points. I've said this previously, but a fiat currency is essentially "backed" by assets and production of goods and services. When those things go to zero, the currency must fail.

OT A little more of UAW buying Obamas auto BK. This is what should happen in a straight forward honest BK but only happens to non union folks.

freep.com | | Detroit Free Press

I've got my chickens (3.5 mos. till we start getting fresh eggs), goats, garden, etc., and essentially no debt.

Well, played sir, well played.

I only have a garden at this point.
Looks like I am not going to get the ducks I wanted for my birthday today.
Damn.

Giving them money, etc. doesn't buy the economy as a whole that much

One guy wants to pretend that anything that makes GDP go up is good, the other wants to anthropomorphize The Economy (and then somehow I'm supposed to care more about Mr. Economy than, you know, actual poor people...).

Zimbabwae had a lot of other bad things going on besides money printing, including confiscation and redistribution of property and farms, severe loss of productivity, a brutal dictatorship, etc. So, GDP goes toward zero and people lose all faith in government and the government backed currency.

There's a softball pitch for the room.

"Plastic is fantastic, Net Net"

One wonders what totally contradictory (to logic) and misleading items are hidden within that "savings rate".

"
Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 10:22 am
The inflation worked. It is the economic growth that did not work, because Bernanke does not understand that inflation does not equal real growth. "

Monetary inflation yes; Price inflation no, except for items purchased from overseas. See RRE, CRE, etc.

"I only have a garden at this point.
Looks like I am not going to get the ducks I wanted for my birthday today."

If you're not near water, you might want to think about Muscovy ducks- just my opinion...

@ Ben Dover,
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Senate proposal to impose taxes for the first time on “gold-plated” health plans may bypass generous employee benefits negotiated by unions.

It sure looks like the Temple of Mammon is falling. But ever since 1860's Civil War Americans did have a helluva lucky run, didn't they? Nobody bombing the shit out of their cities, nobody invading, basically just one happy disneyland, compared to the rest of world....

" timmyone (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 10:26 am

It sure looks like the Temple of Mammon is falling. But ever since 1860's Civil War Americans did have a helluva lucky run, didn't they? Nobody bombing the shit out of their cities, nobody invading, basically just one happy disneyland, compared to the rest of world...."

Folks,
We're still far from the end game. While our SoL will undoubtedly go down, we still don't know where we'll end up in relation to the rest of the world yet. We still could end up with the most toys; just fewer of them... gotta go

HomeGnome -

Looks like I am not going to get the ducks I wanted for my birthday today.

Happy B-day HG.

we will not monetize (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 2:09 pm
If you think of money as a unit of 'work'. As it should be...then you begin to understand how concentrating and storing this 'work' in less overall productive or tangible areas of the larger economy(financial sector) is bad for everyone.

The bottom half is more likely to buy cigarettes and lottery tickets.

The wealthy save money, ..."

Which is also to say they invest money.

And lately they've been investing it in neg-am mortgages and credit card debt.

That's correct, but that's not their fault. If there are rewards worth the risk investing in a biotech company for example, money will flow there.

"And lately they've been investing it in neg-am mortgages and credit card debt."

So, there's the wealth redistribution.

lama (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 6/26/2009 - 2:53 pm
"And lately they've been investing it in neg-am mortgages and credit card debt."
So, there's the wealth redistribution.

Exactly, we only need to stop redistrubution (bailouts to rich).

We agree. My major gripe lies with peoples' fanciful notions that wealthy people could never deserve their money. I have clients that have worked and failed on projects that took years. Then, in their late 40's, they hit it big time, made enormous profits and sold out for $100s of millions. Their technology will lower health care costs more than any giveaway Congress has planned.
Now their at it again, starting another high-tech company. It sickens me that these guys are loaded into the same category as John Thain for political purposes (except they never needed a bailout).

That's correct, but that's not their fault. If THEY PERCEIVE rewards worth the risk investing in a biotech company for example, money will flow there. There, I've fixed it for you.

Americans Finally Look out for themselves, and saving surges - the end of the Shopaholic Nation?

Fund My Mutual Fund: US Savings Rate Surges to 6.9%; Spending Up Too But Government Assisted

lama, I'm just saying that it was inaccurate perceptions of risk/reward that got us into this mess.

The banks that are "too big to fail" are too risky to break apart or put into receivership.
Yet, banks should not expect to receive money. Precisely as they have in the past - what

malarky!

Individuals that have loans should be accountable. But, not banks that get their debts paid

or forgiven by the government.

No regulations are proposed to break these institutions up so they're no longer too big to

fail - just more watching them - but, wasn't Geithner the guy watching them before as head

of the NY Fed? Doubletalk and lies.

Obama has no intention of installing meaningful controls. He's just giving bankers full

control. Replace Obama at the next opportunity.

he's right: Financial Opinions Updated Daily iamned.com why aren't our voices being heard by Washington?

Payments to seniors increased at a $165 billion annual rate? Completely unacceptable. These people have had an entire working lifetime to secure their financial standing, so if they can't hack it, TOUGH LUCK.

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