that reminds me... I was wondering last night if film studios, primarily, the more
boutique types - or mini studios are having a hard time re-financing their new
production slate? Some years ago, when I read hedge funds were going into
the film production my first thought was uh-oh! guess you guys/gals are
pulling a Merriwhether and getting into stuff you don't understand (see: LTC and emerging markets)
exchanged some thoughts on this with a former head of the a well known
studio and he agreed, I couldn't see how on a given deal how there was more to squeeze
from the above the line... didn't see the return that hedgies would get on their money...
what ever happened to that oil guy from Denver that got rolled in Hollywood? Davis?
BSR,if you show up the "Expected rents" usually include an expected vacancy and loss rate which is always underestimated in my experience,often seriously.
Regarding cap rates, Black Star's question in the previous thread reminds me that a lot of people were including expected capital gains in their cash flow analysis.
Michael Jackson is too big to fail. Therefore, I've directed Treasury Secretary Geithner to extend Michael a 60 billion dollar loan in exchange for a controlling interest in his future recording career.
just saw that test...
it's like modeling European options... I need the bank calendar...
I have to know what days the banks are closed so I can figure out
my accrued interest up to that day, while if it's a Bermuda option
I accrue till the next bank biz day... in the haze of distant memory
I remember deals in combined yen and dollars and paid in deutsche
marks, for example...
without the calendar I can't answer, as for B... hell if I know!
funny you bring that movie up... Cruise's United Artists had
a healthy hedgie participation... how's that been working out for them?
that was a bomb...
mp "cash flow" sounds so vulgar and 20th century! when dealing with the wise and gentlemanly folks on wall street "pro-forma" is the new paradigm.Cap rates change? but why would they do that when all the risks are contained?
Does anyone see if the WSJ listed their precise definition of "risky companies"? I assume that it was ratings based, I'm trying to figure out where the cut off was.
Brian in New Orleans (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/25/2009 - 11:14 pm
Michael Jackson is too big to fail. Therefore, I've directed Treasury Secretary Geithner to extend Michael a 60 billion dollar loan in exchange for a controlling interest in his future recording career.
mp,
interesting you say that... I haven't seen it yet (here in Cambodia the pirated DVDs cost 1.50 yet in 'Nam they cost .75... but you get a cheap plastic case with it here, and only a slip holder in Saigon... plus these come Malaysia (supposedly higher quality) whereas 'Nams come from China)...
guess I didn't think Tom's pet project was worth it ... but I'll try and see it now...
the movie distribution model as it is today, thanks Steven Spielberg (Jaws) really crowds out the smaller artier films,
tough to platform them out like times past and wait for a word of mouth to build... the last movie that did that brilliantly
was The Crying Game. But that was pre-Net and the cat would have been let out of the bag to soon... 'she's a guy!'
This article suggests that some "risky companies" that are having trouble re-financing are raising money by issuing stock. My only question is - who on earth is crazy enough to buy stock in these companies? Surely the reality is that most of these companies probably have no net equity? Perhaps they are relying on financial advice from Hanibal from the 'A Team' whose always used to say that "This plan is so crazy it just might work".
"The credit bubble: the gift that keeps on giving."
Remember that Bernanke's choice is to try to extend it, not to let it burst. This is not familiar territory we are in today. Ther wisdom for a long time was that excess credit must - shall - be destroyed. Now we are deciding it can be enshrined instead.
We will see.
AKA The Wailing Wall.
Great news! Wall Street always climbs p the "Wall of Worry!"
Borrow money now or be priced out forever!
sdtfs, yeah - that is the spirit!
best wishes
Roll over or play dead.
that reminds me... I was wondering last night if film studios, primarily, the more
boutique types - or mini studios are having a hard time re-financing their new
production slate? Some years ago, when I read hedge funds were going into
the film production my first thought was uh-oh! guess you guys/gals are
pulling a Merriwhether and getting into stuff you don't understand (see: LTC and emerging markets)
exchanged some thoughts on this with a former head of the a well known
studio and he agreed, I couldn't see how on a given deal how there was more to squeeze
from the above the line... didn't see the return that hedgies would get on their money...
what ever happened to that oil guy from Denver that got rolled in Hollywood? Davis?
BSR,if you show up the "Expected rents" usually include an expected vacancy and loss rate which is always underestimated in my experience,often seriously.
Regarding cap rates, Black Star's question in the previous thread reminds me that a lot of people were including expected capital gains in their cash flow analysis.
They may still be doing it. CR would know.
I always thought this was crazy.
Michael Jackson is too big to fail. Therefore, I've directed Treasury Secretary Geithner to extend Michael a 60 billion dollar loan in exchange for a controlling interest in his future recording career.
Sincerely,
Barack Obama
Which is ironic because the first thing they teach you about CRE investing is 'cash flow'.....
"Which is ironic because the first thing they teach you about CRE investing is 'cash flow'..... "
Well, that type of analysis provided the justification for some pretty big loans.
Just saying.
just saw that test...
it's like modeling European options... I need the bank calendar...
I have to know what days the banks are closed so I can figure out
my accrued interest up to that day, while if it's a Bermuda option
I accrue till the next bank biz day... in the haze of distant memory
I remember deals in combined yen and dollars and paid in deutsche
marks, for example...
without the calendar I can't answer, as for B... hell if I know!
All of this reminds me of Moltke and planning. I watched the movie "Valkyrie" the other night and heard it again.
'This is a military operation. Not all military operations go according to plan.'
Cap rates change.
funny you bring that movie up... Cruise's United Artists had
a healthy hedgie participation... how's that been working out for them?
that was a bomb...
$440B? Bah. Isn't that pocket change for Bernanke in the new world?
Its almost sadly obvious how dangerous the long period of low interest rates are.... How long till its ok to laugh? 10 years?
Duke, I was pleasantly surprised. Son of mp brought home the video and we watched it together. Cruise's performance surprised me.
I'm aware of some historical inaccuracies in the film, probably to heighten effect but, overall, I thought it quite well done.
mp "cash flow" sounds so vulgar and 20th century! when dealing with the wise and gentlemanly folks on wall street "pro-forma" is the new paradigm.Cap rates change? but why would they do that when all the risks are contained?
Yeah, we watched it recently too. I was quite surprised how far the plan had advanced.
We're talking billions again? whew
this just never effing ends.
How long can we keep bleeding, when does the blood just run dry?
Should I just buy 20 acres and start chopping wood?
Tom-- ""cash flow" sounds so vulgar and 20th century!"
Sorry, but I'm an old and old-fashioned guy.
I guess.
Does anyone see if the WSJ listed their precise definition of "risky companies"? I assume that it was ratings based, I'm trying to figure out where the cut off was.
"Should I just buy 20 acres and start chopping wood? "
I don't know what you're doing now, but chopping wood would probably be healthier.
precise definition of "risky companies"?
Too small to bail out.
Ah... "non-investment grade". Probably BB or lower.
Brian in New Orleans (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/25/2009 - 11:14 pm
Michael Jackson is too big to fail. Therefore, I've directed Treasury Secretary Geithner to extend Michael a 60 billion dollar loan in exchange for a controlling interest in his future recording career.
Well, they managed to re-animate dead banks...
mp
Sure would be healthier than stationary computer time. Or the desk I sit behind. Or driving around.
But I think my wood chopping days are long past, unless I am really cold.
Hmmm. BB or lower. Where have I recently seen the initials BB today? Especially wrt non-investment grade debt?
Must be imagining it.
'night all.and mp,i suspect you are younger than I...
'night all.and mp,i suspect you are younger than I...
Sorry mp, looks like you've been removed from "all". Don't know about Conjure, he's kinda his own category anyway.
In German .. Gift = Poison
"The credit bubble: the gift that keeps on giving."
"that got rolled in Hollywood?"
only one person in history came into hollywood as an investor, made a killing and left. that man was joe kennedy.
mp,
interesting you say that... I haven't seen it yet (here in Cambodia the pirated DVDs cost 1.50 yet in 'Nam they cost .75... but you get a cheap plastic case with it here, and only a slip holder in Saigon... plus these come Malaysia (supposedly higher quality) whereas 'Nams come from China)...
guess I didn't think Tom's pet project was worth it ... but I'll try and see it now...
the movie distribution model as it is today, thanks Steven Spielberg (Jaws) really crowds out the smaller artier films,
tough to platform them out like times past and wait for a word of mouth to build... the last movie that did that brilliantly
was The Crying Game. But that was pre-Net and the cat would have been let out of the bag to soon... 'she's a guy!'
.
MWAHAHAHA
.
Please add credit cards to the list of never-ending gifts!
This article suggests that some "risky companies" that are having trouble re-financing are raising money by issuing stock. My only question is - who on earth is crazy enough to buy stock in these companies? Surely the reality is that most of these companies probably have no net equity? Perhaps they are relying on financial advice from Hanibal from the 'A Team' whose always used to say that "This plan is so crazy it just might work".
Too small to bail out.
We prefer to say "Their market cap is too low for them to exercise economies of bail."
-not mine but I'll copy it anyway.
"The credit bubble: the gift that keeps on giving."
Remember that Bernanke's choice is to try to extend it, not to let it burst. This is not familiar territory we are in today. Ther wisdom for a long time was that excess credit must - shall - be destroyed. Now we are deciding it can be enshrined instead.
We will see.