Demand for cross-border air freight dropped 17.4 percent year-on-year in May, suggesting international trade is still a long way from recovery, a global airlines body said on Thursday.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that passenger demand fell a more modest 9.3 percent year-on-year in May, and repeated its view that for airlines, "this crisis is the worst we have ever seen".
Important news that I have not seen getting much coverage. You can no longer rely on the indirect bids numbers comings out of treasury auctions. So much harder to guage the interest of overseas investors.
US Treasury auction changes may overstate indirect bid
Now that GM and Chrysler are announcing plant closings every day; it's the turn of the part suppliers to lay off people and/or go into bankruptcy court.
We might be slicing the data too thin. IMO the thing to keep in mind is that anything more than 400k is a worsening jobs picture. We get wrapped up in moving averages and single digit percentage revisions.
""You've heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession," he said...
"We have sort of become a nation of whiners," he said. "You just hear this constant whining, complaining about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline"
Treasury Secretary Geithner will convene the President's Working Group on Financial Markets tomorrow at the Treasury According to a Treasury release, the PWG will play a critical role in coordination around the Administration’s comprehensive plan for regulatory reform.
Members include:
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission
The Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Chronic unemployment is a part of the definition of a depression and we have created metrics on the one had that don't count it, and on the other hand those metrics which capture it, u6 perhaps, are simply given little to no importance to policy-makers and the general public.
Anecdote time: talked with a buddy that manages rail freight up in Lowell, MA. Says they are off 32% this year. Prety exact number for our conversation.
Also had the guy that works next to me say "that won't happen here" in regards to real estate prices. He's a new homeowner and has that "deer in the headlights" look about him.
Yes. I doubt they got there 120 days past due deferred payments from the BK'd automakers. Maybe they got something, just enough to pay the lawyers to file for BK.
Then there's the teriary support chain for the suppliers, although that might tend to ripple a little more globally.
Today BB will be made to look like a thug, All the testimony will show that BB strong armed BAC. I bet you the government changed all of Paulson's actions to be BB's
I'm old enough to remember when the school was called Lowell Tech. There weren't any jobs back then either. What's surprising is how well the region has held on all these years.
I would be surprised if Paulson came back into the room to testify. The GS connection to Merrill and the Treasury would be too obvious. Sure he might stick around but all the easier when Summers takes his job in Jan
Details dripping out on China Kars coming to Mississippi. Lawsuit unsealed yesterday on infighting of investors.
Judge Mills unsealed it on approval of both sides, very few words, but appeared Mississippi and China were partnered up. Could this be green shoots in the Mississippi Delta just outside of Memphis.
For perspective, when this recession started almost 18 months ago jobless claims were around 335. Numbers this bad this late in the game point to something other than a "recession".
"China and Iraq have signed a $3 billion deal revising a prewar agreement for China's biggest oil company to help develop the Ahdab oil field, an official at the Iraq's Oil Ministry said Thursday."
The Balkanization of Iraq is already taking place.
Unemployment numbers will worsen as those companies that have been holding (and burning cash to do so) onto key employees for the second half immaculate recovery will dump them in the next few months. I expect a few more 500K+ NFP decreases before the leaves hit the ground.
Eventually will render Afghan blocking force moot, opens way to withdrawal.
Say good bye to everything else and we all come home.
Game over, just sweeping up the coke bottles from here on. Maneuver elements take on a 'nobody gets killed' mentality, small unit leadership breaks down, senior NCOs finagle posts elsewhere, junior officers resign, etc, etc.
The conservative firms/companies have acted in the hopes of a recovery, while using cash draw-downs to keep most people. I've been told from several sources that they got burned during the dot-bomb event, having quickly laid people off, including high-value but expensive employees, they had a prolonged brain-drain and were unable to service the work that was out there after 2001. They didn't want to repeat the mistake and took a longer view that keeping the talent was worth deferring instant gratification of less-payroll and less expenses. But, like the administration, FED, Congress, there is a belief/hope that recovery is around the corner, since this recession so prolonged, it just has to end anytime soon. But, those firms are now seeding their employees with the idea that indeed, real cuts are looming. The first cuts have been only promoting and giving raises in a small percentage of cases. The second is that 15-20% reduction in "low performers" will take place, probably at the end of summer.
Historically, some areas of the country turned to Vigilanteism, in lieu of law enforcement. San Francisco in the 1850's is the classic example.
One hopes that instead of absent law enforcement, the efforts of the reduced force will be refocused on more useful priorities. If ever the time was "ripe" for reforming the way we carry out the "War On Drugs", it is now. Of course, nobody will see or accept this until we've finished shutting down education and social services and still haven't closed the gap.
I think it's fairer to say that to the extent business has planned for a second half recovery, and to the extent that recovery either appears or doesn't, we'll see appropriate adjustments to layoffs or retention or hiring.
What's not being factored in is the demand issue, not just demand today, but the future. Where is the demand for the jobs lost today to be picked up in the future?
I see this is a permanent reduction in force that cannot be fixed in a year, or a decade.
We are going to underemploy a generation that will cross-cut high-end to lowest-end earners.
I agree, Lowell is on the down turn....it had its chance, if it was not for the residential tax base Lowell would be off the map for sure. Its retail sector is nill at best.
CR - It would be nice if you could comment on the final Q1-2009 GDP numbers released today. The top line number was more favorable than expected (-5.5% vs -5.7%) but it came mostly from even greater decrease in Imports.
Personal consumption continued to get revised down. Look at the PCE contribution to GDP
April release: +1.50%
May release: +1.08%
June release: +0.95%
bh - I concur completely. And the compounding factor this time around, aside from the bigger initial drop-off in demand, is that we've already gone this long with NO discernable bounceback. And now it is sinking in that this might be, as some call it, the new normal. In which case, the real cuts are just about to get started as more firms realize this. And once they start to, the new normal turns out to actually just be a step on the way down. That is the really scary part.
GDD9000--- I am not so sure. At least in Tech, which I follow, most companies did their layoffs in the first quarter and even with revenues down roughly 20% from a year ago, are solidly profitable and don't need another round of layoffs at current demand levels. And they lowered their revenue guidance so much over the last 9 months there won't be a tech company out there that doesn't beat the estimates for the June quarter.
CR - You say that those people on extended benefits are listed elsewhere. Could you find that info and add it to the unemployment rolls here, so that we get a more complete picture?
How can it be that these banks are not just swimming in cash. Borrow at 0% and loan at 5-8%
is just like printing money.
Could the green shoots be in trouble. Unemployment still out of control and unfortunately we
do not have anything that even resembles a jobs plan from our wonderful leaders. Bailouts,
tarp, health plans but no jobs.
Weekly unemployment claims rise to 627K
City of tampa, FL -10
Spring Hill, FL area golf courses close -50
Salinas Valley, CA prison workers protest layoffs
Potential Chicago Public Schools layoffs -1,000
Jefferson County, AL to lay off "hundreds"
City of Rutland, VT to shut down over budget crisis
Vermont Agency of Natural Resources -58
Jefferson County, AL on the verge of bankruptcy
Eureka City, CA area schools -35
Solana County, CA jails -13
Yuba City, AZ area schools -56
Cadbury (UK) -200
Yonkers, NY area schools -15
U.S. Foodservice -200
Valedictorian punished in CA for layoffs protest
Liebherr Mining Co. -49
Red Revier Valley, ND Hospice -11
Firefly Energy -15
North Clackamas, OR area schools -15
Untitled Document
******* Education is getting killed these days ***********
Tough to spin this one.
Good morning, CR! I have a cup of coffee poured here for you. Cream & sugar?
No work fine there is plenty to do around the homestead.
Yeah, really excellent idea.
Teach them to plow with a mule or fix the spokes in the old covered wagon.
By Gum, whenin I was yore age, I walked eighty-two miles in my cracked leather hush puppies and dag nab, YOU WILL, TOO.
Christ.
I'm glad my parents finally got over that mindset.
Futures ticking up now...... green shoots for everyone!
don't hold back broward, tell him what you really think
Look at the parabolic takeoff from the base in 07-08. All parabolas collapse back to their base, right? RIGHT?
Doesn't sound like airlines will be hiring anytime soon.
Air cargo drops in May, recovery still far off-IATA
Demand for cross-border air freight dropped 17.4 percent year-on-year in May, suggesting international trade is still a long way from recovery, a global airlines body said on Thursday.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that passenger demand fell a more modest 9.3 percent year-on-year in May, and repeated its view that for airlines, "this crisis is the worst we have ever seen".
...............................GDP , Sir ......CR literary standard...............
Important news that I have not seen getting much coverage. You can no longer rely on the indirect bids numbers comings out of treasury auctions. So much harder to guage the interest of overseas investors.
US Treasury auction changes may overstate indirect bid
US Treasury auction changes may overstate indirect bid
| Reuters
Now that GM and Chrysler are announcing plant closings every day; it's the turn of the part suppliers to lay off people and/or go into bankruptcy court.
We might be slicing the data too thin. IMO the thing to keep in mind is that anything more than 400k is a worsening jobs picture. We get wrapped up in moving averages and single digit percentage revisions.
Municipalities 86'ing education because they can't afford it, means law enforcement is probably next on the chopping block...
Historically, some areas of the country turned to Vigilanteism, in lieu of law enforcement. San Francisco in the 1850's is the classic example.
Broward don't go off the deep end now, don't we have enough little fat WII playing Iphone texting fools.
Nothing wrong with house work, it makes for a more domesticated individual.
Queue Phil Gramm from less than 12 months ago:
""You've heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession," he said...
"We have sort of become a nation of whiners," he said. "You just hear this constant whining, complaining about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/10/mccain-adviser-americans_n_111857.html
Plunge Protection Team Meeting
The plotters meet.
Treasury Secretary Geithner will convene the President's Working Group on Financial Markets tomorrow at the Treasury According to a Treasury release, the PWG will play a critical role in coordination around the Administration’s comprehensive plan for regulatory reform.
Members include:
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission
The Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
So much for a top....
CR why no comments/posts on the BAC-Merrill Scandal? BB will be the fall guy.
Agree with RD.
Chronic unemployment is a part of the definition of a depression and we have created metrics on the one had that don't count it, and on the other hand those metrics which capture it, u6 perhaps, are simply given little to no importance to policy-makers and the general public.
/barf
--bh
Anecdote time: talked with a buddy that manages rail freight up in Lowell, MA. Says they are off 32% this year. Prety exact number for our conversation.
Also had the guy that works next to me say "that won't happen here" in regards to real estate prices. He's a new homeowner and has that "deer in the headlights" look about him.
Anyone want to 2x on Gold here?
To think it only took one Gramm to get the country drugged on debt, cracks me up.
Lowell, MA, love my city...to bad there is no jobs here though.
The greater Lowell area job market is stagnant...and that is an understatment.
Rajesh,
Yes. I doubt they got there 120 days past due deferred payments from the BK'd automakers. Maybe they got something, just enough to pay the lawyers to file for BK.
Then there's the teriary support chain for the suppliers, although that might tend to ripple a little more globally.
--bh
BB will be the fall guy.
That just won't happen. He's got at least six more months to serve, and they don't want to freak out the market (any more than it already is).
"CR why no comments/posts on the BAC-Merrill Scandal?"
CNBC (Cramer in particular) has assured me that BB did no wrong and even if he did, he should be exempt from having to follow the law.
GDP contracts more than 5% in the last 3 months.
Recovery Headlights approaching full throttle ahead....../sound of whistle
--bh
Today BB will be made to look like a thug, All the testimony will show that BB strong armed BAC. I bet you the government changed all of Paulson's actions to be BB's
I'm old enough to remember when the school was called Lowell Tech. There weren't any jobs back then either. What's surprising is how well the region has held on all these years.
Snatch blade of blame-game from hand, Benhopper
Eric
I would be surprised if Paulson came back into the room to testify. The GS connection to Merrill and the Treasury would be too obvious. Sure he might stick around but all the easier when Summers takes his job in Jan
Details dripping out on China Kars coming to Mississippi. Lawsuit unsealed yesterday on infighting of investors.
Judge Mills unsealed it on approval of both sides, very few words, but appeared Mississippi and China were partnered up. Could this be green shoots in the Mississippi Delta just outside of Memphis.
For perspective, when this recession started almost 18 months ago jobless claims were around 335. Numbers this bad this late in the game point to something other than a "recession".
China, Iraq Reach $3 Billion Oil Service Deal
"China and Iraq have signed a $3 billion deal revising a prewar agreement for China's biggest oil company to help develop the Ahdab oil field, an official at the Iraq's Oil Ministry said Thursday."
The Balkanization of Iraq is already taking place.
Unemployment numbers will worsen as those companies that have been holding (and burning cash to do so) onto key employees for the second half immaculate recovery will dump them in the next few months. I expect a few more 500K+ NFP decreases before the leaves hit the ground.
"I'm old enough to remember when the school was called Lowell Tech"
It still is RD Greater Lowell Tech I think the term is today, but it may have changed I have not been there in Ahem! 25 years
Debt-Stick Landing
Because it's common for both men and women to work nowadays, as opposed to the Great Depression, when women hardly worked...
Might we expect an unemployment rate double to that of the Great Depression?
China's oil deal is in Kudistan.
Bordering Turkey.
Eventually will render Afghan blocking force moot, opens way to withdrawal.
Say good bye to everything else and we all come home.
Game over, just sweeping up the coke bottles from here on. Maneuver elements take on a 'nobody gets killed' mentality, small unit leadership breaks down, senior NCOs finagle posts elsewhere, junior officers resign, etc, etc.
black dog,
I believe this is correct.
The conservative firms/companies have acted in the hopes of a recovery, while using cash draw-downs to keep most people. I've been told from several sources that they got burned during the dot-bomb event, having quickly laid people off, including high-value but expensive employees, they had a prolonged brain-drain and were unable to service the work that was out there after 2001. They didn't want to repeat the mistake and took a longer view that keeping the talent was worth deferring instant gratification of less-payroll and less expenses. But, like the administration, FED, Congress, there is a belief/hope that recovery is around the corner, since this recession so prolonged, it just has to end anytime soon. But, those firms are now seeding their employees with the idea that indeed, real cuts are looming. The first cuts have been only promoting and giving raises in a small percentage of cases. The second is that 15-20% reduction in "low performers" will take place, probably at the end of summer.
--bh
Historically, some areas of the country turned to Vigilanteism, in lieu of law enforcement. San Francisco in the 1850's is the classic example.
One hopes that instead of absent law enforcement, the efforts of the reduced force will be refocused on more useful priorities. If ever the time was "ripe" for reforming the way we carry out the "War On Drugs", it is now. Of course, nobody will see or accept this until we've finished shutting down education and social services and still haven't closed the gap.
black dog:
I think it's fairer to say that to the extent business has planned for a second half recovery, and to the extent that recovery either appears or doesn't, we'll see appropriate adjustments to layoffs or retention or hiring.
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/25/2009 - 6:32 am
"I'm old enough to remember when the school was called Lowell Tech"
It still is RD Greater Lowell Tech I think the term is today, but it may have changed I have not been there in Ahem! 25 years
UMass Lowell now. Since 1991 IIRC. 25 years eh? My rugby team (Woopie Tech) was probably stomping your rugby team about then.
I just don't see an economic model for regions like Lowell any longer. Have you seen the age demographics?
Kimberly-Clark to Cut 1,600 Jobs
Kimberly-Clark to Cut 1,600 Jobs, Take Charges Up to $150 Mln - Bloomberg.com
Fix UE continued claims you ask ? Why certainly. Trim benefits to 3mo. All fixed.
What's not being factored in is the demand issue, not just demand today, but the future. Where is the demand for the jobs lost today to be picked up in the future?
I see this is a permanent reduction in force that cannot be fixed in a year, or a decade.
We are going to underemploy a generation that will cross-cut high-end to lowest-end earners.
--bh
We're fine. Byzantine Ruins has volunteered to guard the California prisons.
I agree, Lowell is on the down turn....it had its chance, if it was not for the residential tax base Lowell would be off the map for sure. Its retail sector is nill at best.
I took the Lowell Commuter Rail line once. At the end the Conductor said "Lowell. End of the line." My friend said to me "huh, that parallels life."
" shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/25/2009 - 9:23 am
Lowell, MA, love my city...to bad there is no jobs here though."
Np problem.....take a ride over to Lawrence
CR - It would be nice if you could comment on the final Q1-2009 GDP numbers released today. The top line number was more favorable than expected (-5.5% vs -5.7%) but it came mostly from even greater decrease in Imports.
Personal consumption continued to get revised down. Look at the PCE contribution to GDP
April release: +1.50%
May release: +1.08%
June release: +0.95%
Not a nice looking trend ...
bh - I concur completely. And the compounding factor this time around, aside from the bigger initial drop-off in demand, is that we've already gone this long with NO discernable bounceback. And now it is sinking in that this might be, as some call it, the new normal. In which case, the real cuts are just about to get started as more firms realize this. And once they start to, the new normal turns out to actually just be a step on the way down. That is the really scary part.
Np problem.....take a ride over to Lawrence
No comment
OMG - instaPIGGED!
broward
was that 82 miles one way or round trip?
"UMass Lowell now. Since 1991 IIRC. 25 years eh? My rugby team (Woopie Tech) was probably stomping your rugby team about then. Wink"
Rob,
Are you a WPI grad?
xxxxx
Lawrence is Lowell without a university and that's not pretty.
Lawrence doesn't have The Dubliner either.
GDD9000--- I am not so sure. At least in Tech, which I follow, most companies did their layoffs in the first quarter and even with revenues down roughly 20% from a year ago, are solidly profitable and don't need another round of layoffs at current demand levels. And they lowered their revenue guidance so much over the last 9 months there won't be a tech company out there that doesn't beat the estimates for the June quarter.
CR - You say that those people on extended benefits are listed elsewhere. Could you find that info and add it to the unemployment rolls here, so that we get a more complete picture?
Thanks!
How can it be that these banks are not just swimming in cash. Borrow at 0% and loan at 5-8%
is just like printing money.
Could the green shoots be in trouble. Unemployment still out of control and unfortunately we
do not have anything that even resembles a jobs plan from our wonderful leaders. Bailouts,
tarp, health plans but no jobs.
he's right: Interesting Finance & Economic articles
agree
We need jobs, jobs, jobs and I know I sound like a broken record but that should be priority
one. Washington's not getting it.