the UK seems like it has every problem the US has with almost none of the advantages...
I remember watching their parliament howl down gordon brown, who was offering excuses for the northern rock bailout many months before our september meltdown.
Wiki:
Slog refers to a type of shot in many forms of cricket where the batsman attempts to hit the ball as far as possible with the aim to hit a six or at the least a four. It is an extremely dangerous shot to play since the ball is almost certainly going to be in the air for a long period of time and great technique and power is required from the batsman to actually clear the field.
There are different ways to play a slog, and they can be played with different techniques. One of these techniques is called advancing down the track. Advancing down the track is where the batsman facing the balls takes 2-3 steps down the track, building more power for the shot. When a shot like this is played correctly the effect can be devastating, and can score big runs, fast. Of course it is a very dangerous technique to use, as you could hit the ball wrong on the bat and it could fly high in the air allowing fielders to move under it. Another reason why this is dangerous is because if you miss the ball but it doesn't hit the stumps, you are out of your crease, and the wicket keeper can stump you. Advancing down the track is only one of many different variations on the slog shot.
There will be a recovery? I thought the Western Civilization has been now in the initial stages of the meltdown with the Globalist pit bulls having a death grip on its throat.
Reuters:
World wants "major reserve currencies" stable: China
China suggested in March that the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, could play a role as a future reserve currency, which would lessen the reliance on the U.S. dollar as the world's top reserve unit.
I heard, and this is no shit, that he was nude hiking
is this a real thing?
do I need to reassess my decision to slouch into a less than aggressive version of physical conditioning?
will my wife 'understand' when I meet a cherubic nymph from Estonia? or Hungary? (sorry I can't spell Checkosovockia, really want to get with a hooker from the outskirts of Prague)
do I need to re-learn the verses of Valerie Valerah?
Since Mervyn is talking macro, I've been trying to figure out the best indicators to look at for a possible up turn and to watch for inflation spikes.
Here are main things I am watching:
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
- Treasury yield curve
- St. Louis Fed EMRATIO (continuing claims no longer much value)
- Initial jobless claims
- price of oil, gold, and copper
- Case-Schiller home prices
Another reason why this is dangerous is because if you miss the ball but it doesn't hit the stumps, you are out of your crease, and the wicket keeper can stump you.
June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded little changed after falling yesterday when a government report showed that fuel supplies climbed more than forecast as refineries increased operating rates.
Comrade Coinz Best indicators to look for possible up turn?
Unemployment figures only. Forget about the rest. In addition I want to see unemployment figures which can be used to determine where the jobs are coming from. Forget about unemployment figures being a trailing indicator as who cares if you are a little late with your assessment.
Yes, I know, not phrased well. I am looking for the best indicators of general recovery, then for the best indicators of where inflation will show up first (gold, oil, copper?). Just wondered what other people were tracking.
Mike....couldnt help it....barfly got me started last thread with his comment at end.....I'm sure glad god made women second, procreation would have been in trouble if God wasn't a quick learner...
I've found there's a distinct correlation of the volatility & direction of the DOW to the day's output of MilkShake tied in with the number of eggs and type including the elusive green egg. If all of those factors are non-committal, I check here.
yep........cheddar, Mozzarella, & cottage cheese - now keep in mind mozzarella originally comes from water buffalo,but we make do with a Jersey "buffalo" instead.
OT:
WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - The United States on Wednesday withdrew invitations to Iranian diplomats to attend U.S. Independence Day celebrations on July 4, a symbolic step to protest the Iranian government's crackdown on demonstrators.
Yesterdays South Park episode had Eric paying $300 odd dollars to the Church of Scientology to help him become a happy person and finding out that he is the resurrection of L. Ron Hubbard. A great show when I watch it.
"Green Shoots" is one of the boldest con games I have witnessed in my life. Someone in the Obama Administration needs to get Buffett on message quickly.
There are some really genius episodes of Southpark, and nearly all are available free at comedycentral.com. I liked al gore's man-bear-pig, the peter rabbit easter episode, and the xmas special, and the one where brittany spears blows her head off with a shotgun.
Unless a payor defaults, the banks makes absolutely squat, especially when the costs of servicing are thrown in.
And if they default, they may default because of the interest rate increase, in spite of the ability to keep paying the much lower amount- in which case they turn a performing loan into a default with a low cure rate- the Chase exemplar is a perfect one.
A perfect example of a product that is totally toxic to both borrower and lender.
These legacy loans are a problem, but raising the minimums is the wrong solution- not allowing the minimums to fall is the clever solution.
Chase- Jamie D- you owe me $100k for that simple but easy piece of advice, yah friggin maroon.
We will have to agree to disagree. Maybe I'm too cynical but I bet that the majority of those "loss leaders" of unsecured lending were predicated on a certain percentage of borrowers running up huge balances and then missing a payment triggering the penalty rate.
Kind of like the meth dealer who gives away some product knowing most freebies will result in return business at much higher margins.
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/24/2009 - 8:11 pm
Since Mervyn is talking macro, I've been trying to figure out the best indicators to look at for a possible up turn and to watch for inflation spikes.
Here are main things I am watching:
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
- Treasury yield curve
- St. Louis Fed EMRATIO (continuing claims no longer much value)
- Initial jobless claims
- price of oil, gold, and copper
- Case-Schiller home prices
What does everyone watch?
All of the above less copper plus mortgage delinquencies plus OECD CLIs to keep track of the world at large
The great scam started in the early 1980s.. It did not have to be that way, but the west wanted to keep it's preeminence in a world where it was it was loosing it.
Financialism was therefore it's last ditch effort for keeping the status quo. Many bought into it because of hubris, pride and greed. It was bound to fail.. Now it has failed.
I'm with Mike in LI on the CC issue..."the majority of those "loss leaders" of unsecured lending were predicated on a certain percentage of borrowers running up huge balances and then missing a payment triggering the penalty rate" is exactly right. I'm pretty sure quite a few people transferred their balances, forgot to make a payment or were late by a few days and then got hit. Granted, a chunk of the income recognized by CC issuers will have to be written down when customers are charged off...but I think that a chunk of it has been covered by late fees and the higher rates.
Mike, way back when, when I started commenting here,
Tanta took your viewpoint. Unfortunately, the default rate for credit cards is showing I am right with the instadefault on rate increase.
Like I said toxic for both borrower and lender.
That in essence is the entire fault with our financial system, the default leads to insufficient returns due to low assets available for recourse.
Essentially credit cards for the middle class are turning into no or low recourse loans- at which point they are unprofitable.
A slog is what happens after a country's central bank looses its marbles.
Between 1999 and 2002, the BofE sold ~ 57% of its gold. The price of gold has tripled since. D'oh!
What a bunch of dingbats. But it gets worse. In addition to the ill timed gold sales, the BofE basically mimicked Genius Greenspan's every move for the last decade. Same thing with wall street.
The decline of Britain continues. If you think the dollar is on a glide path to zero, check out the pound. Stall speed since WW2.
I've invested in both - currently holding a bit of UNG.
UNG is interesting on many levels, very beaten on now especially relative to crude, very prone to manipulation, interesting relationship to russia and gazprom in particular...
also, the fuel of the future.
palladium is similar in many ways, (substitute norilsk for gazprom) and occupies kind of the 'basest' corner of the PM market, the least monetary of them if that makes sense.
and, yes, the relationship to autos is a big part of that, much as the relationship to other fossil fuels is interesting in terms of nat gas.
It is not just in the United Kingdom. Recovery all over the world is going to be sluggish because the banking system all over the world was greedy, unregulated and spoilt. UK's recovery may be hurdled by political reasons, when Gordon Brown who is actually doing a good job in depression looses his post and someone else takes over. That someone-else would immediately start reducing the fiscal deficit, rocking the boat.
I got your "long, hard slog" RIGHT HERE
Wait, what's a slog?
nemo's back!
The British sure have a funny way of talking about green shoots.
the UK seems like it has every problem the US has with almost none of the advantages...
I remember watching their parliament howl down gordon brown, who was offering excuses for the northern rock bailout many months before our september meltdown.
still in denial, 20 months later...
not a lot of sunshine on the emerald isle
nemo: a slog is a hog with salad bar included, no extra charge
Someone clearly did not get the memo. Fed says stuff is sorta OK, no deflation, no inflation. Life goes on, bra.
Wiki:
Slog refers to a type of shot in many forms of cricket where the batsman attempts to hit the ball as far as possible with the aim to hit a six or at the least a four. It is an extremely dangerous shot to play since the ball is almost certainly going to be in the air for a long period of time and great technique and power is required from the batsman to actually clear the field.
There are different ways to play a slog, and they can be played with different techniques. One of these techniques is called advancing down the track. Advancing down the track is where the batsman facing the balls takes 2-3 steps down the track, building more power for the shot. When a shot like this is played correctly the effect can be devastating, and can score big runs, fast. Of course it is a very dangerous technique to use, as you could hit the ball wrong on the bat and it could fly high in the air allowing fielders to move under it. Another reason why this is dangerous is because if you miss the ball but it doesn't hit the stumps, you are out of your crease, and the wicket keeper can stump you. Advancing down the track is only one of many different variations on the slog shot.
the UK seems like it has every problem the US has with almost none of the advantages...
Remind me: What are the advantages?
volker the viking, I think King was trying to be upbeat!
best wishes
HomeGnome --
Oh, good. That's what I thought.
Credit Cricket.
I could have sworn I read that Mervyn went bankrupt.
one man's upbeat is another man's ____________
OT:
Apparently there is a new branch of the Appalachian Trail that runs to Argentina.
It's called the Happy Trail...
I'll be here all week, folks.
From the prior thread(s).
Citizen AllenM wrote,
This model was beyond stupid, yet pursued with great vigor.
I think you meant to say
This model preyed upon the stupid and was pursued with visions of great vigorish yet to be collected.
maybe he's onto something with that Argentina Happy Trail..good for trade..
http://www.surfersvillage.com/gal/pictures/MissReefArgentina640_4.jpg
We need a hedonic adjustment for British understatement.
He's lying. Recovery in 2010, bollocks!
bollocks!
I thought the U.K. was insulated - you know, being and island and all that
There will be a recovery? I thought the Western Civilization has been now in the initial stages of the meltdown with the Globalist pit bulls having a death grip on its throat.
Reuters:
World wants "major reserve currencies" stable: China
China suggested in March that the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, could play a role as a future reserve currency, which would lessen the reliance on the U.S. dollar as the world's top reserve unit.
A review of the basket is due in late 2010.
2010.
The End, my friend.
I heard, and this is no shit, that he was nude hiking
is this a real thing?
do I need to reassess my decision to slouch into a less than aggressive version of physical conditioning?
will my wife 'understand' when I meet a cherubic nymph from Estonia? or Hungary? (sorry I can't spell Checkosovockia, really want to get with a hooker from the outskirts of Prague)
do I need to re-learn the verses of Valerie Valerah?
The King has no clothes.
Did he pitch a tent?
Since Mervyn is talking macro, I've been trying to figure out the best indicators to look at for a possible up turn and to watch for inflation spikes.
Here are main things I am watching:
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
- Treasury yield curve
- St. Louis Fed EMRATIO (continuing claims no longer much value)
- Initial jobless claims
- price of oil, gold, and copper
- Case-Schiller home prices
What does everyone watch?
If a CEO with a Golden Parachute jumped, but his credit lines got tangled... what's the impact?
What does everyone watch?
That link from creditcriminal is a pretty good start!
I watch American Idle...
Another reason why this is dangerous is because if you miss the ball but it doesn't hit the stumps, you are out of your crease, and the wicket keeper can stump you.
Beware the wicket keeper, Mr. Bernanke.
"volker the viking, I think King was trying to be upbeat!"
So.....
Pack up your troubles in your old kit bag and
Slog,
Slog,
Slog...
chin up boys, we'll get through this
Coinz: to look at for a possible up turn and to watch for inflation spikes.
Recovery and inflation are two different things.
June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded little changed after falling yesterday when a government report showed that fuel supplies climbed more than forecast as refineries increased operating rates.
Still June 24th where I live...
King gets paid too much
montas ankle (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/25/2009 - 12:07 am
I thought the U.K. was insulated - you know, being and island and all that
The Chunnel did it.
Comrade Coinz Best indicators to look for possible up turn?
Unemployment figures only. Forget about the rest. In addition I want to see unemployment figures which can be used to determine where the jobs are coming from. Forget about unemployment figures being a trailing indicator as who cares if you are a little late with your assessment.
Recovery and inflation are two different things.
Yes, I know, not phrased well. I am looking for the best indicators of general recovery, then for the best indicators of where inflation will show up first (gold, oil, copper?). Just wondered what other people were tracking.
Slogs of luck to U.K.
Mike....couldnt help it....barfly got me started last thread with his comment at end.....I'm sure glad god made women second, procreation would have been in trouble if God wasn't a quick learner...
"What does everyone watch?"
I've found there's a distinct correlation of the volatility & direction of the DOW to the day's output of MilkShake tied in with the number of eggs and type including the elusive green egg. If all of those factors are non-committal, I check here.
@ Coinz
I'll guess oil.
@ BSR
Do you make any BSR Cheese?
Fresh eggs are fantastic.
BSR: that made as much sense as the cricket definition of slog
yep........cheddar, Mozzarella, & cottage cheese - now keep in mind mozzarella originally comes from water buffalo,but we make do with a Jersey "buffalo" instead.
Who understands cricket anyway?
keep in mind mozzarella originally comes from water buffalo
---yep.
You lucky, lucky dude.
I'm officially off cheese.
I consult my ouija board in markets like this...
you guys are missing some good ball
I wash my ouija board every day.
Sales tax receipts would be nice to see on a state by state basis. Maybe I can find some Fed chart for that.
Serfs up, hang 10 of em'
OT:
WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - The United States on Wednesday withdrew invitations to Iranian diplomats to attend U.S. Independence Day celebrations on July 4, a symbolic step to protest the Iranian government's crackdown on demonstrators.
That's going to hurt.
Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha!
What does everyone watch?
Lately I watch NCIS and South Park.
Never had the time or inclination before.
Maybe on July 4th, US legislators could repeal the US PATRIOT ACT?
and bury that totalitarian P.O.S.!
You know, for freedom.
"Lately I watch NCIS and South Park."
Yesterdays South Park episode had Eric paying $300 odd dollars to the Church of Scientology to help him become a happy person and finding out that he is the resurrection of L. Ron Hubbard. A great show when I watch it.
Scientology and the Dismal Science have nothing to do with science.
"Green Shoots" is one of the boldest con games I have witnessed in my life. Someone in the Obama Administration needs to get Buffett on message quickly.
The UK won't "recover", it cannot go back to it's heyday of financialism.
They never quite accepted that it was over for them.. finance and north sea oil propped them a little longer..
At this stage, not sliding into irrelevance is the best they can hope for..
There are some really genius episodes of Southpark, and nearly all are available free at comedycentral.com. I liked al gore's man-bear-pig, the peter rabbit easter episode, and the xmas special, and the one where brittany spears blows her head off with a shotgun.
paying $300 odd dollars to the Church of Scientology to help him become a happy person
Did it work?
I ate at the all you can fear Buffett today.
Green Shoots is one of the boldest con games I have witnessed in my life.
Mike: Nope, what I said.
Where is the vigorish in my example?
Unless a payor defaults, the banks makes absolutely squat, especially when the costs of servicing are thrown in.
And if they default, they may default because of the interest rate increase, in spite of the ability to keep paying the much lower amount- in which case they turn a performing loan into a default with a low cure rate- the Chase exemplar is a perfect one.
A perfect example of a product that is totally toxic to both borrower and lender.
These legacy loans are a problem, but raising the minimums is the wrong solution- not allowing the minimums to fall is the clever solution.
Chase- Jamie D- you owe me $100k for that simple but easy piece of advice, yah friggin maroon.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"Green Shoots" could only work if people are already prone to believe.
I thought the great con game started in 1980... it is still going on.
//"Green Shoots" is one of the boldest con games I have witnessed in my life. //
Is that a new book? "Green Sharts and Ham"
"What does everyone watch? "
i try to keep an eye on nat gas and palladium in terms of that kind of thing
No con game needed on that one- very few people believed otherwise. Colossally wrong is the proper phrase.
Citizen Allen,
We will have to agree to disagree. Maybe I'm too cynical but I bet that the majority of those "loss leaders" of unsecured lending were predicated on a certain percentage of borrowers running up huge balances and then missing a payment triggering the penalty rate.
Kind of like the meth dealer who gives away some product knowing most freebies will result in return business at much higher margins.
reagan?
i had to google 1980 geez
HollywoodHack wrote:
i try to keep an eye on nat gas and palladium in terms of that kind of thing
That's interesting. Palladium as it relates to autos? Why nat gas over oil?
i watch diesel prices,unemployment
nemo, I think you mean a schlong ...
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/24/2009 - 8:11 pm
Since Mervyn is talking macro, I've been trying to figure out the best indicators to look at for a possible up turn and to watch for inflation spikes.
Here are main things I am watching:
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
- Treasury yield curve
- St. Louis Fed EMRATIO (continuing claims no longer much value)
- Initial jobless claims
- price of oil, gold, and copper
- Case-Schiller home prices
What does everyone watch?
All of the above less copper plus mortgage delinquencies plus OECD CLIs to keep track of the world at large
I watch everything that ends in 9/10's of a cent.
gabyjan,
The great scam started in the early 1980s.. It did not have to be that way, but the west wanted to keep it's preeminence in a world where it was it was loosing it.
Financialism was therefore it's last ditch effort for keeping the status quo. Many bought into it because of hubris, pride and greed. It was bound to fail.. Now it has failed.
OT:
It is Wednesday.
Business Time!
YouTube -
Nite all.
It's BusinessTime!
It took me many years to figure out that most people want to be lied to.
I'm with Mike in LI on the CC issue..."the majority of those "loss leaders" of unsecured lending were predicated on a certain percentage of borrowers running up huge balances and then missing a payment triggering the penalty rate" is exactly right. I'm pretty sure quite a few people transferred their balances, forgot to make a payment or were late by a few days and then got hit. Granted, a chunk of the income recognized by CC issuers will have to be written down when customers are charged off...but I think that a chunk of it has been covered by late fees and the higher rates.
There is an index of leading economic indicators.
I also might note (if reliable data):
For economic growth:
Stock P/E
Business capital investment (ex CRE)
Housing inventory (followed by residential construction starts)
For inflation:
Money/credit supply
For prices:
Producer Price Index
Fun site:
PolitiFact | The Obameter: Tracking Barack Obama's Campaign Promises
Thanks for all the feedback everyone. I am in a rare window of lucidity that won't last long
OFF TOPIC:
Obama Deception:
YouTube - The Obama Deception HQ Full length version
Disclosure: I hated Bush and I started to hate Obama just four weeks after being in the WhiteHouse.
Juvenal Delinquent,
In the movie "Matrix", Neo's passport expires on Sep 10, 2001.
Look carefully at the scene where the agent's interrogate him and open his dossier.
especially women!
//It took me many years to figure out that most people want to be lied to.//
...and I started to hate Obama just four weeks after being in the WhiteHouse.
Mike, way back when, when I started commenting here,
Tanta took your viewpoint. Unfortunately, the default rate for credit cards is showing I am right with the instadefault on rate increase.
Like I said toxic for both borrower and lender.
That in essence is the entire fault with our financial system, the default leads to insufficient returns due to low assets available for recourse.
Essentially credit cards for the middle class are turning into no or low recourse loans- at which point they are unprofitable.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Wait, what's a slog?
A slog is what happens after a country's central bank looses its marbles.
Between 1999 and 2002, the BofE sold ~ 57% of its gold. The price of gold has tripled since. D'oh!
What a bunch of dingbats. But it gets worse. In addition to the ill timed gold sales, the BofE basically mimicked Genius Greenspan's every move for the last decade. Same thing with wall street.
The decline of Britain continues. If you think the dollar is on a glide path to zero, check out the pound. Stall speed since WW2.
Keep a stiff upper lip and enjoy the slog.
Citizen AllenM,
Mutually assured destruction.
//Like I said toxic for both borrower and lender.//
a "slog" is trudging through mud so sticky, it pulls your boots off your feet.
I've invested in both - currently holding a bit of UNG.
UNG is interesting on many levels, very beaten on now especially relative to crude, very prone to manipulation, interesting relationship to russia and gazprom in particular...
also, the fuel of the future.
palladium is similar in many ways, (substitute norilsk for gazprom) and occupies kind of the 'basest' corner of the PM market, the least monetary of them if that makes sense.
and, yes, the relationship to autos is a big part of that, much as the relationship to other fossil fuels is interesting in terms of nat gas.
It is not just in the United Kingdom. Recovery all over the world is going to be sluggish because the banking system all over the world was greedy, unregulated and spoilt. UK's recovery may be hurdled by political reasons, when Gordon Brown who is actually doing a good job in depression looses his post and someone else takes over. That someone-else would immediately start reducing the fiscal deficit, rocking the boat.
An Engineer's Options & Futures