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Oh, how you can get stucco.
When housing became a liquid investment(!!!!) all sorts of strange things happened.
Talking my book for a second - people who need to move frequently should be renters.
It doesn't make sense to pay the frictional costs of buying and selling houses if you need to move every few years.
Does this include U-Haul? More people are not lifting their own boxes, getting friends to help.
now people are so fat and depressed they can't even mobil their ass off the lazyboy
But in 2008, only 11.9 percent of Americans moved, he said.
That's because a lot of moving is being done by Mexicans and Indians.
I say the numbers are misleading.
Wasn't there a commenter handle Beaver" who was a mover in Orange County CA?
and the other side of the coin - folks who move and think that 'renting their place out' is smart are often making a bad mistake.
i have a buddy moving away from los altos - one of the last enclaves where the bubble is as bubblicious as ever - doing exactly this. wish i could help him see the light and realize that his 500K gain from the past decade of holding the place is doomed, and quickly at that.
Opportunity costs. I love that term. All the what ifs...the Schrodinger's Cat of economic terms.(sorta)
The source of my anger in this contretemps.
The money being spent worldwide on supporting the financial sector is akin to the 95% majority winning the lottery and could have literally changed/saved the world with these funds being spent. All the good that could have been created. Beggars my imagination.
Instead the 5% use the world's wealth to prop up what has always been a travesty for humanity.
When you move DOWN, you move yourself
Conjure Bag says, "BWAHAHA, air conditioning man!"
We can now maintain our own auto air systems, thanks to our new Ritchie Engineering "High Evac" vacuum pump and assorted tools.
"Goodbye, Mr. Air Conditioning Jerk."
Agreed. Being a one-unit landlord is almost always a losing bet.
You need at least a little economy of scale to cover the overhead of offering the service. Maintenance, tools, supplies, vendor relationships, basic stuff.
Besides, who moves the plumbing they stripped before they walked away from the house. By the time these people move there is, maybe, drywall left.
Everyday I see AVTs, motorhomes, boats etc for sale in yards on the way to work. Then I see the For Sale sign. Then the house is vacant. House after house for 2 years now.
@ Hack : What are transaction volumes in Los Altos like?
DETROIT (AP) - About 4,000 more salaried workers at General Motors Corp. (GM) will lose their jobs by the end of the year as the automaker continues to downsize.
My Way
Why are we saving GM again?
I wonder if there's a connection between (lower) mobility and near-free money to finance a big upgrade or mansionizing of an existing house? Less mobile, more house.
For a time anyway.
C
because if we didnt save gm think of all of the jobs lost
mp.........care to explain?
There was a rumored email regarding the NAR offensive against HVCC starting this month, I put it here:
Effective Demand: Rumor: NAR starts offensive against HVCC
Based on their blaming HVCC for the downward revision in Aprils number (even though HVCC started May 1st) the rumored email "feels" real.
It's interesting to find out that people aren't moving, because we already know they are not staying in their houses. I wonder where they are going?
Thanks, CR. This is just the post I've been looking for me to share the lively email I sent to my real estate agents in December 2007 when my wife and I were trying to sell our condo. In the end we went with Option 2 -- Cut and Run and got an offer 7 weeks later. We decided not to move to Florida and stayed put in the DC area. I had to remove one sentence, redact names, and fix a few typos but other than it is unchanged.
From: Slick Dog
To: Bob xxxxx, Mary xxxxx
Date: Mon, Dec 3, 2007 at 10:21 AM
Subject: Alternatives—Your Thoughts?
Dear Bob and Mary—
I'd like to get both of your thoughts on some different approaches I've been thinking about.
Option 1: Stay the Course
Stay the Course would basically mean to continue to gradually reduce the asking price and be patient. We really just want to move on with our lives and get down to Tampa and have done everything we needed to do to get our lives back on track post law suit and post car accident which makes this a very tedious approach. We've had our bags packed for months. It's like we've just driven the football 90 yards down the field, have it first and goal but just can't punch it through.
Option 2 Cut and Run
Under the Cut and Run scenario we'd drop the price to $274,900 or $279,900 and keep are fingers crossed that there's at least one person out there that realizes that is actually a very cool place, walking distance to everything....not to mention a bargain at that price. You could boast that 20 months ago this same sized unit on the 7th floor (No 706 immediately above us) sold for $335,000 (you'd need to confirm this but that's what I think the owner told me a couple weeks ago) making our unit 20% cheaper. And this doesn't include the fact that we have a spectacular 500 sq ft terrace overlooking looking bustling, groovy and all around happening Rockville Town Square (a.k.a., Rock Vegas). Hopefully they'll be at least one person in Montgomery County with enough brains to break away from the herd and realize that there are some great fixed rate mortgages out there right now and if they've managed to pay their cable bill and hold down a job for a year or so the bank will approve their mortgage application.
My only concern here is that it still won't sell. Based on the limited research I've done (as a lawyer I truly appreciate the way you real estate agents have circled the wagon trains around all the key real estate data...nice job) it doesn't seem like ANYTHING has closed in this zip code for months, regardless of price. If that's the case then we may need to consider Options 3 and 4 below.
Option 3 Drink and Demolish
I've really regretted not scrounging up a couple extra grand to knock down a wall or two. Would've opened the place up a lot and could have been just enough to pull in an offer. But it wasn't to be and now that we've laid down new carpet and painted the place the only economical way to remedy this is some old fashioned, hands-on DIY. The Drink and Demolish option involves me, Bob, a bottle of Jack Daniels and a sledgehammer.
Option 4 Scorched Earth
Under the Scorched Earth option we'd simply stop paying our mortgage, home equity loan, condo fees and then turn off the phone. Over the course of the ensuring three or four months that it will take to complete the foreclosure process we'd pocket all that cash and use it for first and last months rent on a place in sunny Tampa. Would be kind of fun to sit back, let nature take its course and watch the mortgage company, home equity loan, condo association and tax collector people duke out. This would also avoid the need to pay commissions to real estate agents. This in turn would give us just enough of a cushion for us to be safe from the doomsday scenario which is that by the time we finally sell the place we find ourselves upside down on the notes.
Think about it. What's the worst that could happen? My credit gets destroyed. So what? My credit is already pathetic. We've been through much, much worse in life and “this too will pass.” Plus the quicker we get this albatross off our necks and head down to sunny Florida the quicker the credit healing process can begin. It'll only take a couple of years and based on our current state of mind I really don't we’ll be itching to be home owners again anytime soon.
Of all the options Scorched Earth is my hands down favorite. The sheer bravado of pursuing an out-of-the-box strategy like has this has some type romantic aura that to me is almost irresistible. Though I’m not sure how the in-laws would view it and that could become problematic. Details, details.
Let me know what you think.
Regards,
Slick Dog
Citigroup Said to Raise Salary for Employees by as Much as 50%
Citigroup Plans to Raise Salaries by as Much as 50% (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Citigroup Inc., the bank that got $45 billion in U.S. rescue funds, will raise base salaries by as much as 50 percent to help compensate for a reduction in annual bonuses, a person familiar with the plan said.
"mp.........care to explain?"
A big deer walked in front of my car a couple of weeks ago, destroying the front end, along with the air conditioner condensor.
We put the car back together after a nice settlement with the insurance company, but needed someone to re-charge the air. I called the guy we usually use and he got snooty with me, so we decided to do it ourselves.
We bought a proper vacuum pump, manifold, hoses, etc and re-charged it ourselves after reading a book on the subject.
Goodbye, Mr. Air Conditioner Jerk. He won't be coming back.
We bought a proper vacuum pump, manifold, hoses, etc and re-charged it ourselves after reading a book on the subject.
Ritchie is an interesting company - I actually did a few parts for them many, many years ago.
Yet again, I am exasperated by such articles.
Tons of people are moving. The people who are moving are NOT moving from one home they own to another home they own. Renters are moving in large numbers. Homedebtors are stuck in their debtors prisons (otherwise known as bubble purchases).
Renters are sometimes moving into homes they just bought.
"Owners" are doing foreclosures in large numbers, and some short sales.
It is the current owner moving to a new home they own that is dropping off the charts.
This is a big job transfer opportunity for renters. I should know. I got a good offer about a a month ago. I took it because I didn't have to sell anything to move. My new employer was also relieved.
mp - so you missed the chance to stuff and mount him? A fitting testament to DIY, I would have thought.
And just think of the after-dinner party conversations: so, mp, where did you get that Air Conditioner Jerk? Looks like a genuine no-pointer...
C
Ritchie is an interesting company - I actually did a few parts for them many, many years ago.
Well don't leave us in suspense!
Dryfly, I know Ritchie is in your neck of the woods and figured you probably know them. They make a very nice product.
We paid a little over $400 for a 6 CFM pump, about $200 more than a Chinese knock-off, but well worth it in my opinion.
"so you missed the chance to stuff and mount him?"
The deer or the air conditioning man?
Photo essays of abandoned places around the world. Eerie.
Abandoned Places In The World
Well don't leave us in suspense!
LOL... not much to say except MAN are they serious about (1) tolerances and (2) testing. They must have known even back then that Conjure was sizing them up for a purchase... don't want to be on his bad side.
Always well worth it to pay extra for a non-Chinese knock-off, imo.
Have bought some knock-off computer power adapters and they don't last long. Not saying they're Chinese, but knock-offs are cheap for a reason.
"The deer or the air conditioning man?"
TMI
"MAN are they serious about (1) tolerances and (2) testing."
The castings on this thing are works of art. Beautiful tool.
We'll get a lot of service out of it, I'm sure.
TWO YEAR WARRANTY, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.
Gotta get some winks. Meetings and about 8-10 hours of windshield time. See you all in about 2-3 daze.
Zzzzzzzzzz....
Umm, try line two...
nytol
C
Externalized Costs
That was creepy. Past weird and utterly creepy.
The Ritchie pump is marketed under the brand name "Yellow Jacket."
It evacuates to 1 micron.
Accept no substitutes.
"@ Hack : What are transaction volumes in Los Altos like? "
infintessimal, like almost every other high-end CA hood.
Los Altos 94022 12 -20.0% $1,522,500 -21.9% $3,700,000 $676 -17.8%
Los Altos 94024 10 -58.3% $1,510,000 -12.2% $3,000,000 $647 -22.9%
but he could undercut the market by 20%, sell it fast and/or get a mini-bidding war. in any case, those prices will be MUCH lower in a couple of years.
We bought a proper vacuum pump, manifold, hoses, etc and re-charged it ourselves after reading a book on the subject.
Every time I do something like that, I barely finish the job and with enough mistakes that I know how I'd do it the next time. (Which is probably how the mechanics get good at it too.)
@ Hack : THanks. That's what I thought. I was out that way last week and was astounded that asking prices are still so stupid.
"Which is probably how the mechanics get good at it too."
All of us learn by doing. Even brain surgery.
"Do" is a magical word.
-- but knock-offs are cheap for a reason. --
Knock-offs are cheap because their is no engineering overhead.
Being 2nd to market is what made both GM and Microsoft.
OT: There has been alot of soft talk about managing expectations down and a slow decompression or flattening of the downturn. More and more I am of the opinion that when the betrayal of the dollar hits, it will come from a psychological gut-punch, lightning quick.
Oh dear dollar why have you scorned me so. The new Gestalt.
PS: Any decent old refrigerator has a perfectly serviceable vacuum pump for auto AC repair.
OK ... off to work on the airplane.
in recent months, 100K towns like Palmdale (or substitute a dozen Riv/SB county towns) have had more volume than the 3 million or so units south of mulholland and west of the 405 extending all the way to PV. surreal.
"Any decent old refrigerator has a perfectly serviceable vacuum pump for auto AC repair."
We made a pump like that when we first started doing composites work. It would only evacuate to 28 inches hg, but was perfectly acceptable at the time.
This Ritchie pump does 1 micron.
Conjure says, "See one, do one, teach one."
Oops! 15 microns.
I can imagine what would happen if you used the Ritchie for composite layups.
The funny thing about the compensation stories is that people are probably so tired of dealing with a bad economy now, they'll construe it as a positive thing. The banks are profitable again, maybe things will return to normal for us, etc.
Story to cheer up the CR gang -
Gang of wealthy pensioners kidnaps and tortures financial adviser who lost their savings
"Gang of wealthy pensioners kidnaps and tortures financial adviser who lost their savings"
All of us learn by doing. Even brain surgery.
But apparently not banking.
rise to s&p 908 before we head further down.....ugh
No offense, but what are you gonna do when the local doc pisses you off?
Try the Acme Spleen-be-gone?
BTW, did you get any venison out of it or did the local road crew call one of their buddies?
Late to the game, here, but we needed to pay a "demographer" to tell us this? Captain obvious award nominee, anyone?
"I can imagine what would happen if you used the Ritchie for composite layups."
That would be riotous. Probably suck all the resin right out of it.
"...did you get any venison out of it?"
Yes and no. The collision didn't kill it. The deputy who came to write the report finished it off and I called our vet, who runs a local food bank. They butchered it.
"Try the Acme Spleen-be-gone?"
This reminds me of the British woman back in the 1800s who, when told she had inoperable cancer, bought a copy of Gray's Anatomy, then went to Switzerland where she bought a surgical kit. She checked into a hotel and did the surgery herself. Her technique became standard practice. True story.
Dryfly, mp:
Here's a video of a guy destroying a credit card in a way that I think you two will find very entertaining.
What type of equipment is being used here?
Jeff
"True story. "
the auto-caesarean woman is also impressive
Follow up to earlier comment somewhere on the thread.
I'm seeing a lot more autos and stuff go onto the street for sale. And real estate property auctions here are way up in terms of volume. That is a seriously good time in terms of watching people and learning behaviors. Also great for smartass educational commentary with the older kids.
Some years ago, I came across a public auction in which the auctioneers had inadvertantly placed the seller's Nightstand Cowboy in a mixed box of miscellaneous stuff.
I'm not much of a buyer at these things, but I've marked my calendar for several later this summer. I'm personally hoping to scarf up a big Winross collection and one of those nifty Ritchie things.
"the auto-caesarean woman is also impressive "
Women holding knives scare me because they're very adept at using them. That's why I stay out of the kitchen when there's a woman around.
In retrospect, putting the Cowboy in the miscellaneous box was the best thing to do. I'd hate to be an auctioneer and have to describe it on the podium.
Women holding knives scare me because they're very adept at using them. That's why I stay out of the kitchen when there's a woman around.
You've just taught me that "Never bring a gun to a knife fight" has a very different meaning than I originally thought.
what is a nightstand cowboy? speaking of meat and cows...
any thoughts on COW? as a cattle play or other wise? anyone care to share the bear or bull case? (couldn't resist...)
JP,the rule is to run from a knife and charge a gun.Close in,a knife is more dangerous in the hands of someone who knows how to use it.Personally I favor screaming loudly and running from any serious threat.
Okay, that's gonna merit a glossary entry, I think.
A nightstand cowboy is a euphemism for a mechanical self-pleasure device. Frequently used by the CNBC crowds when they celebrate one of the rocket days on the market.
Ug. It's "Never bring a knife to a gun fight."
Nevermind.
It clearly past my bedtime. You kids have fun.
I love all the media attention that appraisers are getting these days.
Low Appraisals Threaten U.S. Property Rebound by Cutting Prices
Home-Price Recovery May Be Undermined by Appraisals (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
It's all the appraiser's fault.
"any thoughts on COW?"
I don't buy beef at the grocery store, but deal with a local cattle farmer.
I prefer to look them in the eye before I eat them.
That way you avoid eating downers.
It's all the appraiser's fault.
That's a good legal trick. When in trouble, blow smoke.
g'night folks.
"That way you avoid eating downers. "
yeah, swine flu has put livestock at the bottom of the commodity sector - which is always where one tries to buy, right?
"...the rule is to run from a knife and charge a gun."
Jimmy Hoffa also said that. I often wonder how that worked out for him.
...we already know they are not staying in their houses. I wonder where they are going?
To share the house next door. Many IE neighborhoods show some houses with no cars parked in front day or night, probably REOs, and many houses have 6 or more cars/trucks parked day and night. Trucks parked in daytime are unemployment indicators. Must be crowded inside, with AC running full-time.
"Property values have dropped so much people can't pick up and move the way they used to,"
Trading an appreciated $200k house for an appreciated $200k house is not much different from trading a depreciated $200k house for a depreciated $200k house.
The barrier is not house value.
ShortCourage, you out there???
"Trading an appreciated $200k house for an appreciated $200k house is not much different from trading a depreciated $200k house for a depreciated $200k house."
Except that the debt on the depreciated house must be absolved.
Not One Cent,
Sure it is, if the depreciated house you're in is underwater on the mortgage.
"Michael Hicks, a demographer at Ball State University in Indiana who has tracked the nationwide slowdown using data from several sources, including moving companies."
U-Haul used to publish data. That would make a nice CR graph.
Hint, hint.
@HollywoodHack
Which reminds me, there used to be a nice Italian restaurant, Anthony's, on the east side of La Brea, about two blocks south of Hollywood Blvd.
Still there?
Can't help but point out once again that Talbott predicted all of this in his 2003 book "The Coming Crash in the Housing Market".
That's the book that confirmed my suspicions and opened my eyes to the real world of economics, politics, mass psychology, etc.
IOW, that's when TJ met his inner Bear.
I corrected the "nightstand cowboy" entry to read as
"late night entertainer such as Paul Krugman or Jim Cramer"
Some auto AC require lubricant in the re-charge, or you will smoke the compressor.
Nate and TJ, then the issue is debt.
Yeah, but most other forms of debt don't inhibit mobility. In fact, some encourage it.
what about waste to track slowdown? couldnt find any charts though
Tampa Bay
Trash makes a good economic indicator - St. Petersburg Times
Reno
Recession Helping Produce Less Landfill Waste - KTVN Channel 2 - Reno Tahoe News Weather, Video -
Fredricksburg
Fredericksburg.com - K.G. landfill bucks trend
UK
Waste not: recession leads to big drop in amount of rubbish we are throwing away | The Agonist
Chicago
http://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/ny-ligarb0412711961may03,0,342357.story
dunno, i'll check it out next time i lunch with my buddy who lives there. i've never lived in hollywood proper, the name is a reference to the millions i've sucked out of showbiz for my unique brand of dreck.
the great reflation (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/24/2009 - 3:08 am
now people are so fat and depressed they can't even mobil their ass off the lazyboy
Have you seen any movers shrinkwrap someone to the chair and stow him/her in the trailer?
"Some auto AC require lubricant in the re-charge, or you will smoke the compressor."
Check. Did that. PAG150.
"in his 2003 book"
of course, housing in many markets would double from that point to the peak... timing is hard.
Bond Girl (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/24/2009 - 3:22 am
Why are we saving GM again?
To drive Ford out of business, unless it submits to zombification.
HH,
Yeah, and he wasn't predicting exactly when it would happen, just that it would happen and what the after-effects would be. Hell of a road map.
"Hell of a road map. "
and a road map to hell...
I moved out of Hollywood in '72. It was really starting to get bad. Lived on Sycamore Ave.
There used to be a Union 76 station on the corner of Sycamore and Hollywood where I'd stop to get gas. I was running about 20 minutes late one day, intended to get gas, and came upon a half dozen LAPD cars at the gas station. The owner, who I knew, had been blown away with a shotgun during a robbery attempt. If I'd been on time, I'd have been a witness, victim, or both.
I decided that God was trying to tell me something, so I moved the following week.
Our address is in the Hollywood Hills, but we just use LA for our mailing address. I don't think I'll ever live in the flats.
mp,
Intuitive. Decisive. Good combination.
We can't have private-sector companies or individuals running around willy nilly, employing people and making things, unsupervised by the watchful eye and grand design of the geniuses in DC.
"I don't think I'll ever live in the flats."
Years ago, that used to be a nice area. Working people, most of whom owned their own homes. I'm thinking of the area bounded by Olympic, Hollywood, La Brea, out to Wilshire Country Club.
Sure, there were apartments, but most of it was single family residential. A lot of studio people, you know, electricians and so forth.
I guess that's all gone now.
There are nicer areas still there and in the Valley. However, growing up a country boy I have to have some semblance of country around me. Sure, I live in a condo, but buried in the trees with wild animals passing by 30 yards away up the hill.
How much longer till we start seeing this in the US:
"Pensioners Kidnap and Torture Financial Adviser"
June 23 (Telegraph) -- A group of wealthy pensioners have been accused of kidnapping and torturing a financial adviser in Germany after he lost £2 million of their savings in the financial crisis. The men, dubbed the "Geritol Gang" by police after an arthritis drug, face up to 15 years in jail if found guilty of subjecting German-American James Amburn to the alleged four-day ordeal.
Two of his kidnappers are said to have hit him with a Zimmer frame outside his home in Speyer, western Germany, before he was bound up with duct tape, bundled into the boot of a car and driven 300 miles to the home of two of the abductors on the shores of Lake Chiemsee in Bavaria.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/5612006/Pensioners-kidnap-and-torture-financial-adviser.html
"Pensioners Kidnap and Torture Financial Adviser"
This is a terrific story. Read it earlier today.
For those who don't know, a "zimmer frame" is a walker.
mp, I had a situation coming home from a pizza place in Silicon Valley (Campbell, CA) where 3 guys in a pick-up brandished knives on me and my girlfriend. Ended up losing them in a high speed chase through residential streets. Moved out of the area within a month. I can now see the events in my life never would have amounted to what they are now if I had stayed there. Strange things do happen for a reason.
"I had a situation coming home from a pizza place in Silicon Valley (Campbell, CA) "
Wow! Campbell! I know (knew) it well. It really is sad, what happened to those towns.
Given the circumstances here, the worst may be yet to come.
"The men, dubbed the "Geritol Gang" by police after an arthritis drug, face up to 15 years in jail if found guilty of subjecting German-American James Amburn to the alleged four-day ordeal."
A pound of flesh would have been a nice payback. "You will go free but a pound of flesh must stay here"
As late as the early '50s, Campbell still centered around Campbell Ave. and the cannery. The town was surrounded by orchards and Bascom Ave was still a two lane road.
There was a nice family at the corner of what is now Hamilton Ave and Bascom (northeast corner). They had a beautiful two-story home surrounded by an enormous masonry wall. They owned most all of the property on that corner, which was orchards. They held out for a long time, but finally sold out.
I think Google owns that property now.
All those walkaways not showing up in crosstown moves ?
jinglemail
Speaking of California, the controller's 50 day warning was on June 11th, so we're T-37 days until California is broke.
How's it looking out there? News of the situation doesn't hit the East Coast too much, which seems odd given just how horrible a Cali default would be...
"News of the situation doesn't hit the East Coast too much, which seems odd given just how horrible a Cali default would be... "
California has been running on empty for as long as I can remember. If they do default, which seems unlikely to me given politicians' ability to delay the inevitable, it will be a wakeup call.
California really does need a wakeup call.
Sorry.
Ag,
Two stories in the local Sacramento fish wrapper
Economy makes roommates of elders and their adult children
404 - Not Found - sacbee.com
The growing child poverty crisis in Sacramento schools
Interactive Map: The growing child poverty crisis in Sacramento schools - Sacramento News - Local and Breaking Sacramento News | Sacramento Bee
I think Campbell is getting a bum rap here. It's not a bad town at all. In fact the downtown area has grown into a nice spot to hang out.
Residential neighborhoods are mixed, some nicely kept, some so-so. But the post above makes it sound like it's East Palo Alto (slums in the middle of upscale Silicon Valley).
My god homeowners are delusional! Read this:
Some signs of sentiment improvement emerged in the second quarter. Just 22 percent of those homeowners surveyed expected price declines in the year ahead, the lowest share since 2007.
Error - AOL Money & Finance
How many here remember when Gov Pat Brown's ride was a Lockheed Constellation?
and while that is happening...
Bailed-out bank's deals raise concerns
Bailed-out bank's deals raise concerns - Sacramento Business, Housing Market News | Sacramento Bee
' A Bee investigation of internal shareholder documents and public lending records found that at Community Business Bank, those likely to benefit most from the taxpayer-funded windfall are a small group of insiders and their associates. From its inception 3 1/2 years ago, the bank has steered many of its assets to a handful of directors, as well as their relatives and business partners.
By early last year those property investors had drawn down as much as one-third of the bank's loan portfolio of more than $100 million, deeds of trust showed. The bank has loaned more to its own directors than about 90 percent of banks "similar in size and economic environment," according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'
Not saying that I'd burn the place down but if it someone else fired the place I'd probably show up and sing kombia >; )
"In fact the downtown area has grown into a nice spot to hang out. "
Conjure and I were there a couple of years ago and noted that the downtown along Campbell Ave had been "gentrified." It looked nice. That's why the story about the knife attack surprised me.
I remember when downtown Campbell was Farm Town USA.
Green Shoots Everyone (good evening.)
http://economistsview.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b33869e201157149dafd970b-pi
the above graph says it all.
Yes we can (good night. )
"Money.aol" is like "heartsurgery.facebook."
"the above graph says it all. "
Yes, it does, and notice the other graph in that post. Without government and health jobs, job growth would have been negative.
Manufacturing, people, manufacturing. I've been preaching this for almost forty years and no one is listening.
Well, we now know how "globalization" is working out, don't we?
The right end of the graph is artificially high (fake GDP) because of all the government work now done by "private" contractors (army caterers) and regulation-created "private" business (tax accountants/lawyers).
UK: Negative equity hits one in six prime mortgages
Negative equity hits one in six prime mortgages |
Money |
guardian.co.uk
Never did like NAFTA - I don't care which party thought it up.
Watched Tucker last night. I thought it was an interesting parable until the end when I realized it was a true story. Pair that with a movie titled Flash of Genius and you'll understand why the populous have lost hope.
Both films were excellent.
There's been hand-wringing about Iran....
A bit of context, perhaps?
Video: Arrested for asking a policeman for his badge number |
Environment |
guardian.co.uk
Never happens in America, either....
Reuters: "Most home buyers are also sellers. As a result, many potential transactions are thwarted because the reluctance to sell at a "loss" is seen as greater than the advantage of the buying at a reduced price, he said."
The fascination with the nominal makes inflation often effective for policymakers.
I want to believe that, when the situation becomes sufficiently desperate, NAFTA will be consigned to the dustbin of history.
"Watched Tucker last night. I thought it was an interesting parable until the end when I realized it was a true story."
The Tucker was wayyy ahead of its time.
California really does need a wakeup call.
Why?
Sink or swim, I'm already clear of vortex.
Concerning the Tucker, another beautiful car was the Edsel. Another car ahead of its time.
I remember it being ridiculed--yes, ridiculed--because it came with seat belts as standard equipment. I remember a lot of people saying they refused to pay for such unnecessary items as seat belts.
American consumers were brainwashed. Still are.
California really does need a wakeup call.
'Cause we hit the snooze button automatically.
OT: As Bankruptcies Surge, Fewer Emerge
Business bankruptcy filings are up more than 40% from a year ago, and banks are pushing more companies to liquidate
As Bankruptcies Surge, Fewer Emerge - BusinessWeek
Some late night thread music for your enjoyment. If you watch carefully, you can see Glendale's Grand Central Air Terminal moving by through the windows. The terminal building and hangars are still there, but the runway is now Air Way, if my memory serves me correctly.
YouTube - Shirley Temple On the Goodship Lollipop
Grand Central. A lot of history was made there. It was the western terminus for TWA till '36, when they moved to Burbank. Some historical trivia.
Have a good night.
I remember it being ridiculed--yes, ridiculed--because it came with seat belts as standard equipment. I remember a lot of people saying they refused to pay for such unnecessary items as seat belts.
A metaphor for the current age, no doubt.
Grand Central Airport (United States) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
That is an interesting history. BTW, I'm pretty sure that Campbell isn't an epicenter of a growing west valley crime wave... if anything, you'll die of boredom.
futures just took an interesting tick, down in equities, up in gold... should be fun tomorrow.
HollywoodHack
....dunno, i'll check it out next time i lunch with my buddy who lives there. i've never lived in hollywood proper, the name is a reference to the millions i've sucked out of showbiz for my unique brand of dreck.,
I am assuming the use of a 3 or 5 act structure in your dreck?
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There IS a NAR offensive underway. And apparently, they have a NAR employee pretending to work for Bloomberg.
Low Appraisals Threaten U.S. Property Rebound by Cutting Prices
Bloomberg.com:
News
Now appraisals are "Flawed" if they don't hit the Realtor's target price. Wow, as if "Flawed" appraisals didn't play a big role in the housing bubble and current financial crisis. This "journalist" is beyond pathetic.
If I buy a new car can I blame kelly blue book for saying my trade in is not worth what I originally paid? Damn you KBB
I've always said this would become a big issue. I bought my second house in the 80's in the UK and lived through a property slump. I paid 45K for it, lived there 2.5 years then tried to sell it so i could move into the city but could not. Even though I was young(mid 20's) i could not take a job outside of the locality. There were plenty of job opportunities I was interested in but as I didn't even have a single enquiry on the house in 18 months it was on the market there was no escape and no possibility to go further afield for work. I was earning around 14K at the time and luckily had a secure job. Loans in the UK are of course recourse and I didn't want to blow up my finances...so I had to stick it out and sold after 4.5 years for the same price I paid....and they say house prices only ever go up.....
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...... Woody Allen and that Korean chic SoonHee still have relationship?......they might have kid( s ).........
...... this is latest Chinese lame excuse for US and EU filing to WTO for unfair trading .....
...... Los Angeles Times -- Business, Technology, Real Estate, Hollywood, Economics, News - latimes.com .......
Counterpointer!
oops.... just saw your reply.... thanks...
......
duke
"futures just took an interesting tick, down in equities, up in gold... should be fun tomorrow"
........major Asian markets end up 1-2% , esp Taiwan market closed 3% (went up 5% during trading) due to trade relationship improvement with China.........
........all metals were pretty strong in Shanghai Mer.Exc esp Cu&Pb.....Chinese central bank said q2 growth would be little more than 8%.......
Gooood moorrning Mary-Nam!
So, what's going on? Intertubes say Asia breathing easier, Nikki edged up, Hang Seng got some relief, SAXCME Asia 50 over 2% largely on HK and Korea weighting; futures kermit for Thursday. AUD has come in smack on USD .80, which could test support again. US T's doing some spiky overnight moves, esp at 5 and 7year, second decimal, ahead of today's auction. US 10year almost touched 3.66%, now cheapening.
Everything set for a beautiful day.
C
@Duke - that FRBNY chart looks about right, although may not capture the repatriation of funds by the comm banks. The big flows were back out of Latin America, but (reference eludes me) the LDC distressed debt situation clanked along for years until some half-assed efforts by the G7 started to put some relief in train. Which then got revised in similarly half-assed ways for 10 years...
Other news, OECD, not to be outdone, raises projections for growth for the richy rich club, bottom apparently in... Lobster and champers all round in Basel!
OECD Raises Outlook for First Time in Two Years (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
C
......better one here ,OECD revised GDP projects in 2009 and 2010 .........
US economic activity this year is expected to fall 2.8%, against the 4.0% decline projected in March. Growth in 2010 is now forecast at 0.9% compared with 0% previously. The trough in US activity is expected during the second half of this year but the Outlook warns that as the impact of the stimulus measures fades, increased savings by corporations and consumers to reduce their indebtedness will continue to hold back growth. The recovery will not be strong enough to stop unemployment rising to around 10% over the next two years.
...... Weak recovery in sight but damage from crisis likely to be long-lasting, says OECD .......
And now we are where we are. Works for me.
C
.....hey , early morning joke here ...... JPMorgan tops strong bank list, RBS biggest loss
| Reuters ........
@Jay.D - good grief. Datelined 23 June, huh? That'll be why Santander's stock tanked yesterday...
C
" That'll be why Santander's stock tanked yesterday..."
.........solely for that ,C ? ......Nahhh.........
FTAlphaville thinks they're onto something with the OECD report too...
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » A little case of international org schizophrenia
Less schizophrenia than journalistic dyscalculia. OECD report relates to 31 countries. World Bank to 180-whatever.
C
ot anecdotal: went by chance past a major brand name moving company yard yesterday--saw between 12-20 vans, semis parked where seldom have seen more than two or three
sure there's some seasonal factors, but this place isn't geared for a lot of parked rigs, they filled up the available space and spread around the block
more than I have ever seen before
Added "Stucco" to the CR glossary.
Special +1 to Tom Stone for this:
When housing became a liquid investment all sorts of strange things happened.
Liquidity and mobility. Part of what made housing illiquid was the high transaction costs. Strangely transaction costs became less of an issue with predictable results.
"futures just took an interesting tick, down in equities, up in gold... should be fun tomorrow"
Stocks are unchanged from two hours ago. No volume either. Markets are on hold until durable goods report and new home sales data. Probably nothing will happen until the Federal reserve meeting confirms what CR predicted yesterday - that the economy sucks and short rates will stay low.
Just my opinion.
more than I have ever seen before
Things are still slowing down.
I see it in the restaurants, certain times are stone dead now.
Shari's is offering a free slice of pie on weekday afternoons.
By definition, you're still falling if you haven't hit bottom.
Broward, thanks--the biggest thing I appreciate is the anecdotal observations, aside from the truly insightful comments from some erudite types like Byz, EHP, Serf Allen, Broward, RD, et al (omission not intended for exclusion, many others as well).
I too have noticed a fall off in the lunch crowds, but it may well be seasonal. Happens every year round here with vacation time and 100+ heat. But it's a wet heat so it's often more along the lines of a 110 - 115 index nummer. Just a couple sizzler months a year, rest of the time it ain't all that bad.
Arby's free roast beef sandwich with drink purchase today.
It amazes me how economists can gin up nonsense math formulas with a dozen terms consisting of greek letters that produce 90% confidence levels but they don't read the ads in the newspaper. Interestingly, those newspapers are only on life support because they charge usurious rates for legal notices. When the foreclosures start dropping so will local papers.
"Trading an appreciated $200k house for an appreciated $200k house is not much different from trading a depreciated $200k house for a depreciated $200k house"
the problem is equity. If you paid 200,000 and put down 20% and the house is only worth $160,000 you have no equity after the sale. Therefore can't purchase a new house since you don't have any equity to purchase. So selling and moving requires you to lock in the loss with no hope of recovering it should markets bounce back.
Hence the need for a change in law that allows you to swap the new home (assuming it has an appraised value greater or equal to the current appraised value) for the existing home on your mortgage a..k.a. portable mortgage. This leaves the lender no worse off arguably better since people move to purchase bigger homes or for better job prospects, there is more transactional volume for everybody in the food chain and other than a little bit of duration extension there is little or no cost.
volker, thanks for the kind word. 110-115? Ouch. I wither at the very thought. This is my next 5 days weather: 72/54 76/54 76/54 79/56 79/56. We are bracing for that heat wave over the weekend.
So selling and moving requires you to lock in the loss with no hope of recovering it should markets bounce back.
Huh?
Yeah, you have to put more money in..... but you still win if the property value goes up.
"Arby's free roast beef sandwich with drink purchase today."
Wow. That's trading dollars for sure. They must have substantial aging inventory of meats.
I'm in the direct mail coupon business. Most of my customers are locally owned food types. They pay for their food costs from last month with this month's receipts. More and more of them I find counting out their deposits, scratching numbers on a separate sheet and dashing to the bank. Their May was big, some very big. Their June was significantly lower, some much so. Real cash crunch through a seasonally slow time. Things pick up with back to school and better weather.
crazyv,
"Portable mortgages" are IMO a bad idea. You are effectively disconnecting the debt from the asset. We all know what happens then.
RD: I hate you and everything you stand for. 8)
Standing in the shade will leave you soaking. Get in the car and it's 120 -125, the wheel almost too hot to touch. Shaded parking spots at a premium. Sometimes all I have to do is brandish my Glock at the granny who wants the one I'm headed for. Sometimes granny brandishes back. My bluff called, I go in search of another.
That might have been true 30 years ago. With securitization we have already cut that link. The debt holder is not aware of the granular level of assets in the pool, might be aware of geographic concentration/dispersion so I fail to see how the debt holder cares as long the collateral level is the same or better on the swap. Now unless you are advocating eliminating securitization. I don't see how that is a valid criticism. Furthermore, as has been demonstrated in this latest downturn real estate has become a national asset further arguing that for large investors the granular level is irrelevant.
volker the viking (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/24/2009 - 5:18 am
RD: I hate you and everything you stand for.
I get that a lot. You must admit though that I am remarkably restrained wrt bragging about the weather. If it is any consolation the economic weather here sucks with my primary residence off $600k from the peak.
".....with my primary residence off $600k from the peak."
.......that would put me in a chronic bad mood - good weather or no.
Morning All
It's only a $600K loss if you sell it.
"It's only a $600K loss if you sell it."
right. Just like a GSW to the chest - it's only bad if you bleed out or stop breathing.
RD: I wouldn't put Benji in a house down by that much.
Checked yesterday with my realtor pal. Comps, recent comps say we're holding steady in my neighborhood. Then, we paid 90k in '03 for a house that would have cost 300k in the overheated areas. I felt like I over paid, but of all the houses I have owned this one has the most endearing features. A Cape Cod with 2/1 up and 1/1 down, attached 1 car, nice fenced yard and well maintained area. The house is 60 years old and has pocket doors which compartmentalize it into several distinct
never mind--durable goods way better than expected
actually, a lower worth is better for reassessments from the tax assessor - if they'll budge down - most don't yet.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/24/2009 - 5:26 am
It's only a $600K loss if you sell it.
Things are so crazy that represents a $600k gain from my 1995 purchase price. We're only back to 2004 prices.
Look at the futures on the durable goods data. The herd has spoken.
Look at the futures on the durable goods data. The herd has spoken.
Keep smoking those green shoots, herd!
I bought into the "labor mobility" idea from 2004 until last year but ultimately, it wasn't worthwhile.
I'm done with it.
Now I only seek jobs in Seattle, Portland, Boise and Denver, in that order.
About 80% of my unsolicited recruitments are for the East coast.
Honestly, I don't know what these guys are smoking that they think I care about going to NJ for a 90 day contract.
Lots of risk, not much gain.
Why do it?
From the article about the OECD.
The improved outlook conflicts with that of the World Bank, which this week said the global recession will be deeper than it predicted three months ago. In anticipating a weak recovery staggered across different economies, the OECD signaled that the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan should not raise interest rates before 2011 and recommended the European Central Bank cut its benchmark further.
Wow. ZIRP until 2011?
But 600k off...it's not like someone removes a portion of the house when value declines or adds when the value rises.
All paper.
Besides, where you gonna go?
mp told a story late last night about why he hit the road out of Hollwood...
...
I told my own... but now, it will disappear 'like tears in the rain'
but see this vid mashup which makes use of that Blade Runner monologue of Rutger Hauer...
YouTube - Khmer BladeRunner & Babe on a Bike: (Rutger Hauer's Death Scene)
and you'll never miss that story...
Wow. ZIRP until 2011?
Easily.
Japan has been hovering around ZIRP for something like fifteen years now.
broward optimistic today, bio rhythms must be peaking
Another factor affecting the household goods moving industry is the poor economy - not just housing. Thus, many people are choosing to move themselves. I have made 3 trips across the State of Washington in the past 4 weeks - there are a lot of U-Haul, Budget, Penske and other rental trucks and trailers on the road. And I do mean A LOT. There are very few moving vans, however. I was in a U-Haul dealer a few weeks back and the place was packed with customers renting trucks and trailers, 100% of which were for moves out of state. I'd never seen them so busy before.