Thank glod for N.Dakota.

Yellow shoot!

Nuke - 275 jobs? You should see what Princeton U is going to do.

Magenta Carta

Check out all the "red" states. Sean Hannity ought to be happy.

One wonders what ND actually does to make it appear "less sucky" than the rest.

That's what passes for good news now.

Ciao
MS

My link is from a family member who is about to retire (not quite voluntarily.) I'll see what I can document for you shortly. Apparently, 45% of operating budget was funded from, wait for it....the endowment...which is down about 35% or so, and likely to fall further ahead (IMHO.)

First step...incentivized retirement. (Told parent to take it and run...if you get laid off, you lose univ. health care in retirement, and end up on cobra..ouch) Parent was 9 months from retirement anyway and well over retirement age. So, no brainer. But others...screwed. Even when they tally up who accepts and even if everyone they hope for does, lots of layoffs coming. More figures to come...

Green Shoots alert~

My sister-in-law got a job working for a lawyer (she's an i.t maven.) after having been laid off in February from her previous long-term employer, a big law firm.

@Sebastion (from pigged comment)

How about NOT increasing the debt load by $14T for any reason? Your suggestion just blows a different bubble than the gov't is trying to blow now.

When someone comes up with a workable plan to actually pay off (not just down) the collective debts, we might be getting on the right track.

wake me up when the universities start laying off administrators and faculty.

upside down square root

The $6 Million Man seems reasonable, now.

when the Fed buys MBS it is indeed "printing", no?

It is just a Quantitative Appeasing of the mortgage market.

we just got done with 20 years of Yale Presidents.

I believe W got his MBA at Harvard.

"MS (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/23/2009 - 8:58 am

"The US is going to be a manufacturing powerhouse again."

How is that going to happen after we've spent the last 20 year's dismantling it? Try and get a loan to start up any business, let alone something that produces hard goods. Oh and while you're at it who is going to buy them? The Chinese?

I needed a good laugh.

Ciao""""

I know, it is funny, right?

People are not going be able to sit around and munch cheatos and credit fumes forever. They will have to get out and work or they will die. The US can retool easier than most countries could build manufacturing capacity.

There is tremendous amount of fallow US manufacturing capacity, more and more every day, getting cheaper by the day.

The larger cycle is the ebb and flow of global trade. We will switch from consumption to production because there is no choice. This will occur at lower overall levels as the world stops pretending it can grow the economy indefinitely at a compound rate while living on a finite sphere.

The world is not going to be selling superfluous crap to eachother for quick bucks anymore. We will sell and make useful things. The larger ebb and flow of international trade will continue and those with comparative advantage will prosper.

A dead dollar is a comparative advantage for US exporters and exporting is much easier in the modern, globalist world.

As to selling to the Chinese, while I am sure they will buy our goods if they are cheap, our manufacturers could perhaps survive selling domestically to fill the void left by China abandoning the US market for not getting paid!

Time to move to North Dakota. At least being in Minny, it wouldn't be a tough move logistically. Not sure I'd want to live in ND though. No offense to ND or its people.

Just to elaborate quickly on China's dependence, if the yuan were allowed to float, the cost advantage of Chinese mfg would vaporize. Add in transportation costs across the Pacific, and well documented inefficiencies in China's mfg/transport sector, and the true cost of Chinese goods is much higher than the current price to US consumer. That's why the PBOC maintains the peg to $ despite piling up US debt...drop the peg and exports disappear.

North Dakota Economy at a Glance

Check out bls data on North Dakota.

Mining and Logging
and
Government

are the two sectors that increased jobs.

Look at everything else. It tells the story.

ND is an outlier burger.

--bh

Timmyone:

No, I think everyone gets the same debased piece of paper. Most Ivy League officers I've met suck pretty bad.

Here is one for Lucifer

Carney Says Canada’s Slump Has Become as Deep as U.S.
Carney Says Canada’s Slump Has Become as Deep as U.S. (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said his country’s recession is now as deep as in the U.S., according to a person who heard his remarks today in Washington.

What do they actually do in North Dakota???

Carney Says Canada’s Slump Has Become as Deep as U.S.

When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold. When the U.S. enters a depression, the world.....

Hey that sounds like "Tremors"...

The US can retool easier than most countries could build manufacturing capacity.
There is tremendous amount of fallow US manufacturing capacity

Some truth to that... the depth of skill and capital is enormous. But it does depend on what sort of system we end up with. A big bout of inflation we can survive, but if we're still just funneling all of our money in to banks and government by various contrivances then there's no way the rest of the economy can recover.

Scrooge McDuck , most excellent read...I thank you

Spread the wealth!!!!!

Obama-rama jammin 'em up now.

A future history textbook excerpt:

"The North Dakota Jobs Rush took place in 2009-2010..."

"The North Dakota Jobs Rush took place in 2009-2010..."

LOL!!! Well one thing we can say - there won't be much crowding. It is one of the emptiest places I've ever been [except for 'Fargo'].

Dec 2007 to Jun 2009 = 19 months.
Since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion.

Anyone ready to call the first instance of two quarters of positive GDP? I'll guess Q4-'11 and Q1-'12.

"Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/23/2009 - 9:19 am

Very important read on how a rapid inflation occurs despite a severe economic slump. Basically, the author analyzed the weimar hyperinflation, and came up with several datapoints, with charts to backup."

Rentenmark

German Weimar Republic in the early 1920s and the U.S.

Weimar 

The Weimar Hyperinflation? Could it Happen Again?

The Rentenmark 

AS,

+10^6 (inflation!)

Seriously, what is the best way to beat that concept into the ground - that the words "jobless recovery" are so inherently contradictory as to be meaningless?

BHO, "Ben Bernanke has performed well".

Bernanke is history.

Angry Saver: Why do we make the same mistakes over and over?

Every addict has to hit bottom.

Basel Too (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/23/2009 - 9:11 am

wake me up when the universities start laying off administrators and faculty.

It's already started in CA, well except the layoff of faculty part.

really OT/
but hey, it's the season....
Universal (?) just dropped 'Moneyball' from its production slate...
no doubt this is based on Michael Lewis's book of the same title (yes, at Solly I knew
him on a few deals... pity 87% of Liar's Poker is pure fiction... no pity I;m sure to his bank account)
....
but don;t feel bad for Brad Pitt, no doubt he had a pay or play contract - A list actor like that gets paid no
matter what...
....
making that book into movie I would've given thumbs down in a heartbeat, unless Brad was atttached,
which I assume he came in with the deal...

We aren't making the same mistakes.

The checked-out votership/citizens of this country is/are.

Iran is showing us how we should be handling these sociopathic "businessmen" and politicians.

How f*&king messed up is that?

its almost impossible to cut current employee's salaries/wages and expect them to work...So the solution is...wait...

...fire employees, let them sit on unemployement for 6 or 12 weeks and then offer their jobs back...particularly gov. workers...

Boeing stinks:

"Commercial satellite-launch services provider Sea Launch, which is 40% owned by 787 on time manufacturer extraordinaire, Boeing, filed for bankruptcy last night in Delaware (09-12513). The Long Beach company which has used the Kazakhstan Baikonur Space Center for rocket launches in the past, has listed liabilities of over $1 billion.

What is hilarious is that just last week, the Company launched a $245 million one-year Term Loan underwritten by Citigroup. Is Citi doomed to have the worst luck of any investment bank for ever and ever? "

Source: ZeroHedge

Resistence ....
"Many of the bright ones eventually end up working FOR the nobles. As a bonus the proles end up inculcated with the establishment culture and dominant values of the ruling class minority."
hey, is that you Noam?

"It is one of the emptiest places I've ever been [except for 'Fargo']. "

Sounds like a good location for an alternate Conjure Cave.

who needs a conjure cave? the economy is stabilizing.

Starting in the 60, we had women really making an entrance into the workforce. In the late 80s, we had the outsourcing shift begin. I think we are going to go back to living with less folks employed overall and in my personal experience, it's the middle aged men and the late 20s privlaged women who seem to be taking it the hardest.

The treasury auction went well today! 39% at 1.15% (two year)

Scrooge, I belatedly replied to one of your previous posts on this topic but you might have missed it so I will repost here:

Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 4:56 pm
Over at Mish's, he posted his main disbelief regarding hyperinflation:
"Given there has never been a hyperinflation in history where home prices have crashed, I have one question: Where are the hyperinflationist's recommendations to buy houses? Where? Please don't be a wimp about it. Is any hyperinflationist recommending houses?"
My first thought was that...if I thought hyperinflation was coming, I certainly wouldn't be buying now...I'd wait until hyperinflation. And not now, not when rent's crashing, average home prices still above historical highs, the well-to-do areas home prices still propped up, and possibility of increasing property taxes. Even during hyperinflation, I'd be a bit leery....who knows what kind of tax schemes the governments would impose on home owners?
What do people think?

Jim Rogers has said that eventually property will be a good buy for inflation.

However, even if property rises during 100% inflation, money market funds (MM) probably will pay 101%, and a MM probably will not charge $100k property tax.

The real estate play is not about the land but the leverage, if you want to gamble with debt.

Mish jumbles factors that I tried to separate in my deflation article.

Mish basically says you can't have (hyper)-inflation with crashing house prices--but didn't Keynesians basically say that you can't have inflation with falling employment?--until we did (1970s stagflation).

We can retool industry, but how do you convince young adults to work for minimal wages making useful stuff when they've hardly worked a day in their lives?

Just bought my mandarin edition of Rosetta Stone

"Looks like Pavel was right: there is a God.

Harvard University to Cut 275 Jobs as Endowment Sinks (Update1)"

That's a stitch, in a mordant sort of way.

I was just thinking of the story they tell about St. Teresa of Avila. She was crossing a river and prayed to Jesus that she might get across it safely. The mule she was riding promptly dumped her into the water. As she dragged herself to shore she said: "No wonder You have so few friends."

energyecon,
Ft. Wainwright. Dad was in the army.

Sounds like a good location for an alternate Conjure Cave.

LOL. He would find he wouldn't be the first one hunkering down out there.

And as for 'infrastructure' needed to support more population? There are two NoDaks - Fargo & the rest of state. Fargo is a smaller cold 'Orange County'. Lotsa shopping, lotsa sprawl. Just about everywhere else could be potential 'Conjure Country'.

I would not recommend the average American consider NoDak... even Fargo... most would NOT like it. The few that would are probably already there or some place else like it .

shill - can you post a link... i only read it on bloomberg.... i cant find a link.... TIA....

.............

BO is a hoot... He eats these reporters up.... and a big hat tip to him for not flying off the handle at this Iran thing... Others would have been sounding off like children.... The Iran people have spoke for themselves just fine....

Two-Year Results:
Interest Rate _________ 1-1/8%
High Yield __________ 1.151%
Allotted at High _______ 39.20%

___________________________Tendered __________ Accepted
Competitive ______________ $127,100,970,000 _____ $39,544,341,000
Noncompetitive _______________ $455,682,500 _______ $455,682,500
FIMA (Noncompetitive) $0 $0
Subtotal _________________ $127,556,652,500 _____ $40,000,023,500

SOMA _____________________ $1,161,613,200 ______ $1,161,613,200
Total ____________________ $128,718,265,700 _____ $41,161,636,700

___________________________Tendered ___________ Accepted
Primary Dealer _____________ $81,171,000,000 _____ $10,970,000,000
Direct Bidder ________________ $8,769,841,000 ______ $1,389,841,000
Indirect Bidder ______________ $37,160,129,000 _____ $27,184,500,000
Total Competitive ___________ $127,100,970,000 _____ $39,544,341,000

This GD2 is going to hit very hard among middle class teenagers and 20 somethings. Their parishiltonian "I am very special and privileged"-world is going to crash down totally.

Gold and silver both at their 50DMA and trying to bounce. Bucky taking a buckwheat up the green chute today too.

Thinking it's a good idea to declare victory and partially cover PM shorts here.

There is tremendous amount of fallow US manufacturing capacity

That can be eliminated by issuing new "green energy efficiency" regulations that make existing equipment worthless and issuing new "workplace safety" licensing/certification regulations that make existing personnel worthless without re-education.

Sac-

Demographics are obviously very tough to alter over the short term. It is very reliably proven that periods of strongest economic activity are highly correlated in the US, Japan, and Europe over the past century with brithrates 40-44 years before. Think about it: early 1930s, low birthrates due to the Depression, ergo, poor economic growth in the US 1974-1982. Low birthrates in WW2 and WW2 reconstruction in Japan; poor economy in Japan in the 1990s. This is due to large demographic segments of the population being in their peak spending years and large demographic groups accelerating economic growth while smaller demographc cohorts dragging on it. . US Baby Boomers born 1946-1960; the years 1990-2000 were pretty good in the US (in general). My generation (X) is smaller than average; I'm 35 and was born in '73. This smaller amount of spending wil drag the economy until 2015, when the larger Gen Ys come through and things start to pick up again in the 2020s, which will be like the 1980s or 1990s again.

Lots of conclusions can be drawn from this....think about the one child policy in China and you might think twice about investing in China after 2020....however India and Saudi Arabia look pretty darn fantastic through 2050....Picture Saudi with 100 million people in 2100 and Yemen being the largest country in the Middle East in population by that time (been doing a lot of work with desalination in the Middle East lately). .

Like most conservative states, North Dakota is in the business of importing federal tax money from other (usually less conservative) states. It ranked 6th nationally in 2005 with $1.68 entering for every $1paid. Sounds like a pretty robust model for surviving the Great Recession. Until it isn't...
non-partisan: The Tax Foundation - Federal Taxes Paid vs. Federal Spending Received by State, 1981-2005

"Besides, the Conjure Cave in Nordakotah would generate a heat signature that could be traced by the black helicopters."

Excellent point.

Young adults have been brought up to be Peter Pans, and I guess we'll see how it pans out.

I speak from actual experience, talking to fellow students in my electronics class in JC....Kids in their 30's are living at home, free room and board...with girlfriends living at their parent's place...They are perpetual students, that's their justification...and the parents buy into it....Spend their money playing the stock market, lavish vacations to Bali and expensive autos...O' did I say that they have a part time job at Mickey D's and part time at a JC?

These kids will never grow up as long as their parents pamper them...This will change with their parent's job losses...

The entire population of North Dakota is 641,000.

will obama pull a franklin roosevelt, and devalue the dollar overnight (50%) by doubling the price of gold?

The entire population of North Dakota is 641,000. - BIT

But they have 4,569,235 Ford F-150s. Out back by the barn. Still have some good parts.

Scrooge: You have an article on deflation? do you have a link?

I am agnostic but I continue to see people jumble these factors:

Not One Cent: Inflation or Deflation? Money Supply, Credit Supply

"The treasury auction went well today! 39% at 1.15% (two year)"

So long as people keep buying our debt, this will drag out. We will maintain status quo.

this isn't from the Onion. Someone forgot to tell Ratner that cars don't build themselves.

Chrysler LLC’s best assets, bought by Fiat SpA, can’t operate because they don’t have access to the proper tools, said a lawyer, adding that the company is close to working out an agreement that will allow it to start production. . . .

“We don’t want to have a situation where after rushing to get the sale closed in 42 days, Newco is unable to start up production because we don’t have necessary parts,” Oswald said. He added that a mediation process “would be discussed with Newco and Chrysler’s creditor committee.”

Chrysler Needs Use of Tools to Restart, Lawyer Says (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

Do we end up with women back in a more traditional role as homemakers, as jobs go away? - JD

No. We have middle-aged women working 2 or even 3 part-time jobs, with grandma looking after the kids. Dad is gone. I see that scenario every day where I live.

shill (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/23/2009 - 8:25 pm replyIgnore userScrooge-

Seems to me all efforts to devalue the dollar thus far have failed between BO and W. How do you devalue the global reserve currency in a time of crisis? Seems like all efforts have failed thus far.

You could reach out and kindly say " Pretty Please "...with sugar on top

I think the term is "quantitative easing"

scone,
I see it too around here. Traditional family is no more. Strangely, the men vanished in mass during the Depression as well. Great Grandma on my mom's side, first husband left her with two children and one on the way. Managed to get a job with AT&T as an operator.

@lost - my oldest daughter's plan is to live at home until my wife and I are retired, put us in a home, and take over the house.

JD - Why don't you suggest that the men stay at home? Maybe with the women running the place, things would actually get done right!

"But, but. If they lay off staff but not faculty who will teach the classes.? "

A friend in the Registrar's ran into the Psych Dept. chair, who used to be a neighbor of hers. The dept. chair expressed sympathy to the staff that had been cut in her department and said, "Well, I've told the faculty that they'll have to enter their own courses and course changes in the academic information system.

At which point my friend bit his tongue: ONLY faculty are supposed to enter data in the academic system, for security reasons. And only for their own classes at that. They've been lending out their passwords to the grunts and passing the work along with it. The turds.

Never before in history have women been able to do whatever they damn well please in terms of employment, like the past couple of generations have increasingly done, to the point where it's not even mentioned anymore as a curiosity, their line of work.

Relatively few women worked in the 1930's, aside from traditional women's work.

Conjure and I are waiting for the pot to boil.

We should know soon enough.

scone

More than you realize, everyone I talk too either is not working or works 2 jobs...that would be me, I work 2 jobs. But then again I do not count as I have been working 2 jobs for the last 20 years.

Ya I pay cash for everything including the house I bought, I refuse to be a debtor..I don't need nor want your credit....And my wife works Part time.

We keep our paychecks that we earn...We do not live like the Walton's and we do not live like the Hilton's but what we do have we own....And I sleep very well at night.

Gun safe full Ammo closet stocked.

Treasury-Altered Reality Plan (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/23/2009 - 10:31 am

* reply
* Ignore user

@lost - my oldest daughter's plan is to live at home until my wife and I are retired, put us in a home, and take over the house. Smile

JD - Why don't you suggest that the men stay at home? Maybe with the women running the place, things would actually get done right!

Maybe I am wrong here, however, I and my three brothers could not get out of my parent's hous fast enough....couple of years either joint households with friends working sh*ty jobs or school or the military....

Kids need to grow up...most parents will not let them....Its only the rebellious kids that get pushed out the door....some of us run like heck...

"There are far easier ways to make money."

I wish I knew some of those. I'm tired of riding a desk in cubeville.

"Do not underestimate the power of the dark side..." lol

Oh and the Markets as well some nice " in the right place at the right time " investments will help me survive my old age....unless " O " wants that to.

Right now Flipping dollars to Gold and Silver...but all my eggs are in different baskets.

lost-

I'm with you on that...couldn't wait to get out. A group of us.....7 total, rented a studio apt. for almost a year while we were all able to save enough, on our own, to get a better arrangement for ourselves individually. It was long after that cycle that my parents were interested in helping out financially.....and you know what? It was the best thing that ever happened to me.
My current neighborhood is ripe with multi-generations of family living under one roof but it's not because of the last two year's or so. It's been that way since I moved in here 9 year's ago. We are and remain the only true single family on our street. All around me are (mostly) kids who just don't leave and whine about everything under the sun.

Makes me sick sometimes...try living in a studio apt with 6 other people at once.....believe me it was all the motivation I needed. And let's not even bring up bathroom arrangements...

Ciao
MS

"Nemo,
We've come to expect much more from you. "

It's ironic because he posted the same thing last time.

@lost - same here, and she'll find out soon enough that her plan doesn't jive with ours, though that comment is really just a running joke, not serious.

" mp (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/23/2009 - 1:01 pm

"It is one of the emptiest places I've ever been [except for 'Fargo']. "

Sounds like a good location for an alternate Conjure Cave. "

Is that where he'd keep his backup clock, or the real one?

Did that clock have a quarks movement?

Legal growing of pot could be done on a permit basis. So much money for so many plants. So personal use vs sales type of growth could be different.

I guess pot is the only thing left on the planet the gov doesn't tax. So it is the logical next step. And I think there is a fair demand, not sure though as I haven't studied it.

MS -

While I can't relate on the size of the place I can vouch that living with 5 other people in a split level house where you only have 4 bedrooms (on the bottom level, each room about 120 sqft) among 5 people in an effort to save and scrimp for something better is what some of these grown-children need to experience. Between constant suppump problems, break ins and run ins with the law, I'd say the worst experience was that all the food in the house was stolen during a party (which we were hosting in an attempt to raise money) in which all of the residents (including myself) went to sleep before it ended. That was the impetus to finally move out. A few months later the place was completely ransacked and robbed for everything electronic but I was luckily in a better place.

California is good to go and could legalize pretty quickly, but more interesting would be the heretofore draconian states out west having to do a flip-flop...

I'm looking at you Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, et al

[but how do you convince young adults to work for minimal wages making useful stuff when they've hardly worked a day in their lives]

When UE runs out and there is no more capital/equity left for their parents to harvest, starvation becomes an effective motivator.

It is now time to go play with my new Yellow Jacket "SuperEvac" Vacuum Pump, a beautiful tool, made in Dryfly's neck of the woods.

S&P Downgrades Prime Jumbo MBS

"The problem with legalization is that it lets the genie out of the the bottle. Two years from now ditchweed will be everywhere debasing the formal (taxed) pot economy."

No different than coffee; you can buy Yuban (crap) for cheap at the chain supermarket, or pay good money for quality beans from the high-end mart. I think most of the new buyers who'd buy the cheap crap aren't the ones buying the high-end now. You just need a way of differentiating. Pot growers could start building reps, so a particular plantation name indicated higher quality -- like vineyards.

Besides, there's always the chance that cheap pot -- even the bad stuff -- would keep some kids off the crystal and other cheap homebrew drugs that rot the brain (and other parts of the body) rather quickly.

E-

yea I hear you....most kids have no clue but think that it's actually cool to live that way. The only thing that helped us out was that one of us, not me, had some sort of settlement with a gas company linked to his credit card (at least that was the story)...on a daily basis we would show up at the local Mobil station and clean them out of everything...beer, snack foods, ciggies, etc. What we didn't use we sold. It got to a point that they wouldn't allow us in anymore but each and every-time the charges went through....sometimes a total of over $1k on a daily basis. They soon got hip to us and all the stations refused us. But for about 2 months we had everything a 20 year-old would dream of every night. Oh and the party's....yea well I'll never understand how we didn't get evicted (nevermind that we were totally overloaded) but I think the card owner had something going on with the landlord as well. We also all had jobs and it wasn't a 24/7 party machine so it was relatively quiet during the day.

Kids need to learn about reality (not that the above represents any of it) but you know the part where working and struggling actually helps you in the long term.

I say that if the kids stay home with no educational advancement planned, charge them for the room and board or equivalent labor costs for services performed...

lost-

but what about the perpetual student?....how do you handle that side?

My family charged me interest on the loans they gave me. I still think it was a little over the top even today but It did teach me the value of things.

Ciao
MS

"About as fugly as your naivete."

+1, Comrade!

comrade AM and Terry-

Glad to see someone else took the time to respond to him......I just didn't even know where to begin!

Ciao
MS

The Silicon Valley has completely imploded! HP silently just gave thousands a 30 day termination yesterday. Intel, Cisco are doing the same.
Most software development, chip design and all support and manufacturing process jobs are moving to " best cost shores" India, China, Costa Rico, Panama, etc.

The new business meme " best cost practices" YOUR JOB IS NOW IN INDIA!