Those of you (who can still afford the luxury of) a trusty Bloomberg will note the ‘exhaustion rate’ for jobless benefits - EXHTRATE – reveals that people are not leaving the pool of continuing unemployment claims because they are getting new jobs; Rather, they are leaving because they have exhausted their benefits.
I'm still waiting for someone to calculate the UE/FC multiplier. I'm thinking with the leverage that the newer home owners had it could be pretty high.... 0.25 to 0.3333
(IE a quarter to a third of all new UE cases result in a foreclosure....)
It's not....just part of the game to use actual fundamentals at a point where they want them to matter.
the other POS news is the world bank cut of it's growth forecast...well correct me if I
m wrong but a shrinkage (in deference to G. Costanzo) is not growth but I think the word that is missing is "down-climb".
But what do you want from a gov't that needs to sell $165b in debt this week?
Despite the huge drop, the S&P 500 is still over-valued on a historical basis. Given the backdrop of excess debt, I don't see the point in owning equities - they're first in line for losses. I also don't see how anybody can buy the green shoots mantra.
Inflation, I don't see it, but I respect the arguments.
Deflation, we earned it, but Bernanke won't allow it, at least not a large deflation.
Green shoots????? Get serious. I see no basis for this thesis other than polyanna wall street bs.
When the arty ex-pat Austrian strongman leader closes down 200+ state parks, there's going to be an awful strain on the few National Parks in California to absorb all the people, like a tourist funnel.
I expect that the FED will increase the QE (as others have said already) but the language that comes out with it will say something like "in order to speed up the recovery...."
Im a bit confused on that announcement. It doesnt really fit in with the general theme since day 1 of stoking confidence. Or did people think we'd be at 12% in a few months, and this is something optimistic?
As for Alan Blinder...isnt he just Bernanke's butt kissing boy?
Current real trend earnings for the S&P 500 are ~ $40/share. And the long run trend is in doubt given the huge and unpayable level of bogus debt in our eCONomy.
IMO, stocks should be trading at a steep discount to historical valuations. 600 is the top of the range.
This wasn't an "announcement," in the official sense, but rather Gibbs making a comment, probably in the course of the daily press briefing. Nor is it breaking news, as Obama had already made the concession last week in the interview with Bloomberg.
On the Fed meeting, I expect the wording to change suggesting the Fed will hold rates at the current level for an extended period. I think that will be the biggest announcement
"CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Nearly half of American adults who participated in a recent survey said they no longer believe that homeownership is a realistic way to build wealth, the National Foundation for Credit Counseling reported on Monday."
What's sad about our society is $6-12 dollar entrance fees to state parks are considered high while 3 mocha lattes is not an issue, or how one xbox video costs 5 entrance fees....everyone in the US who hasn't read Thoreau "Walden ponds" to see how simple really is beautiful should...it could help with psyche thru this event...
Will someone in the press ask Robert Gibbs to explain the difference between U3 ( 10 percent unemployment now - not within the next few months ) and U6 ( about 2x ) which depicts true economic reality
CR: I agree. In the last thread, I suggested that the Fed is going to take a wait and see approach. Compared to 3 months ago, the banks have stabilized and people aren't panicking. I suspect the Fed would rather not expand their QE program just yet. OTOH, these guys all believe that the GD lasted as long as it did because enough wasn't done early enough. So perhaps ghostface is onto something - that the Fed will want to expand QE sooner rather than later.
Regardless, I am amused that we now trade and "invest" according to our readings of the bearded one. The most advanced economy in the world is now hanging by the adroit money printing and dilution orchestrated in a conference room in DC. Amazing.
If there is no explicit mention of a ramp-up in treasury or agency purchases, look out below in the stocks. If there is explicit mention of a ramp-up, and it's a big number, look out below in the dollar. These guys are backed into quite a corner.
Ah, the old setting low expectations so they can later beat expectations later down the road. They'll pull the old Jack Welchian "beat by a penny" routine. Green shoots indeed.
I don't disagree at all with that.....the reason we had the "blast" up was that it could be accomplished.....that's the sorry state of what we call free markets. Self-actualized markets IMO. We say therefore it is done.
i think the real collision course is between the states and fed here - the states need real money. badly. congress and the white house, on principle as an organ of the federal reserve, despise the concept.
Sad that our society can't/ won't just legalize cannabis and stop all the destruction. Yeah, there are many old. respect-the-earth hippies growing but also a bunch of wanna be gangsta pharmers trashing the land.
amazingly, the great smoky mountain national park and blue ridge parkway are still totally free. If you want to get really high on beauty , go during the last two weeks of October. Founded for the people during the last great depression!
How is this different than hanging on the words of Mr. Magoo during the 1990s?
@broward: What planet were you on man? We invested in the 90s based on impressions and click throughs. True economic fundamentals.
IMHO, the 90s were driven by the euphoria of the internet generating true productivity gains. Mr. Magoo just provided the juice. Other than a few key scary points, I don't remember really being worried about interest rates.
they care deeply about re-inflating asset prices....not so much the dollars (which can be "delivered" to participants) that are used to purchase said assets.
They own it already.....hence the need to inflate. The comment from Krugman just nails it...it's as if the last 25 year's of credit creation was a cyclical market event.
Self-actualized markets IMO. We say therefore it is done.
Propaganda and liquidity (cash for trash) only work in the short term. Longer term, we get out only what we actually earn. And financial tomfoolery doesn't count towards long run output.
I see heartache ahead. Be it 1 month or 10 years, asset prices and returns on "investments" will eventually meet reality.
I got my first credit card as a college grad in 1994.
$500 limit and I needed a parent to co-sign despite the fact I was over 21 and had the same job for three years.
In 2004, you could do a 15 min. cash out refi in the kiosk at the mall.
so if we have universal health care, with the taxpayers picking up a significant chunk of the tab, what happens the capital already allocated in employee health funds (e.g. GM VEBA, CalPERS, etc)?
Ghost & others- Can you explain to me what this EXHTRATE on bbg is showing exactly? I get that it's the exhaustion of benefits, but what does the 47% signify?
right, when Sal Bros' cute little trick in mortgage securitization began to snowball and become emulated at other firms... liars' poker is still a fun read.
early 70s - BW launches experiment in 100% fiat
early 80s - mortgage securitization turns every house in america into a global, fungible asset
early 90s - FNM/FRE lobbyists take over DC
I see no basis for this thesis other than polyanna wall street bs.
There are the hundreds of thousands of jobs that depend on the commissions and fees from selling an asset class that has badly underperformed over the last 30 years.
"CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Nearly half of American adults who participated in a recent survey said they no longer believe that homeownership is a realistic way to build wealth, the National Foundation for Credit Counseling reported on Monday."
That is indeed a green shoot! Maybe it will foment realistic pricing of houses.
Now when we read the same thing about stocks, then we will truly be on the correct path.
One interesting thing... I am finding the parks (mostly free in my state) to be more and more crowded these days.
BTW, if anyone's interested, here was Stone Mountain in Roaring Gap, NC this past weekend. I did my first friction climb on one of the shallower pitches, then a long hike around the summit:
There are the hundreds of thousands of jobs that depend on the commissions and fees from selling an asset class that has badly underperformed over the last 30 years.
At the March 2009 lows, stocks had underperformed long term treasuries for 40 years! Absent the fed & treasury bailouts, the under performance undoubtedly would have been much longer. Stocks for the long run?
May be I didn't choose the correct words however we are not going to return to the highs as if this downturn is just a random correction that is normal to the function of markets.
It wasn't normal to achieve the high's in 2007 (based on fundamentals, sound risk-profiles etc) but we got there. Returning to it is a pipe dream when you factor in what will be destroyed in order to achieve it.
If in a properly functioning marketplace capital flows to the best alternative wouldn't by definition in the long run stocks and bonds perform equally as well? I realize we all do not invest over a long enough period of time in order for it to equal out for all of us.
I think it's fairly obvious that this is simply a continuation of the 2001-2003 Crash.
We had a four year bear rally, mostly because of extreme manipulation by the Feds who know perfectly well what is happening re: the credit cycle.
If in a properly functioning marketplace capital flows to the best alternative wouldn't by definition in the long run stocks and bonds perform equally as well?
No. If the returns were the same, then rational investors should choose bonds, which ahead in the line in bankruptcy court (ie, bonds are less risky.)
yep......Also one must factor in the "invention" of the repo. process in Oct. '02....I wondered at the time why there was a need to exchange paper for money if we were in some part of recovery....
"just shop" were the two most dangerous words ever uttered. It sealed our fate and encumbered us to what is now playing out in slow motion and we have a front row seat.
Given enough time we see how it was built for the very few who made it all up.
Unemployed Texas lawyer here, collecting $417 per week in unemployment benefits.
I can think of 5 other lawyers off the top of my head that have lost their job in the past month. I know at least 20 lawyers who have been out of work since February. There are temp projects available, but they last 2 weeks, make me ineligible for for unemployment after I finish the project, and after running the numbers, I would actually LOSE money by taking these positions.
I feel bad using unemployment because I have 30k in savings, but at the same time, I don't want to put myself in a position where I watch my savings go away.
I am close to giving up the practice of law altogether. Any alternative career advice for soon-to-be former attorneys?
A friend who is ailing (paper-cut injury on the left pinkie finger from 1987) and has a medical mj license, brought back something called "Tangerine" which had a most citrusy aroma. How do they do that?
"wouldn't by definition in the long run stocks and bonds perform equally as well?"
equities are too often used as wealth extraction tools for execs (e.g., backdated options), and their volatility attracts flippers. both of these factors erode their utility as 'investments'. this is why i love direxion products - the only honest equities in the market, explicitly designed for short-term gambling.
OT: but was the subject of a late-night OT discussion.
Court Says Parents of Special-Education Students Can Seek Reimbursement In a decision that could cost school districts millions of dollars, the United States Supreme Court ruled on Monday that parents of special-education students may seek government reimbursement for private school tuition, even if they have never received special-education services in public school.
The case before the court involved a struggling Oregon high school student, identified in court documents only as T.A., whose parents removed him from public school in the Forest Grove district part way though his junior year, and enrolled him in a $5,200-a-month residential school.
"Any alternative career advice for soon-to-be former attorneys? "
i have a hard time believing that tax and bankruptcy law is totally devoid of opportunities. i advise every lawyer and law student i meet to consider retooling towards those niches.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 1:11 pm
rd - what do you mean?
Ass-covering, finger-pointing, back-stabbing behavior, although I suspect Dawg will characterize in positive terms of "productivity".
Seen it increase a ton since the 2001 crash.
Productivity is probably down quite a bit, though.
LOL. Yes, those too. I was in one job where I really made a "Pearl Harbor File." It made it possible for me to get another job via a neutral recommendation rather than open the file. N.B. The "neutral" recommendation was meant to be a rebuke but enough industry people knew the situation such that it was far more a positive than a glowing recommendation would have been.
The illustrious Governor of South Carolina has disappeared. He left on Thursday in a state-owned black SUV, not divulging his destination to his wife or his security detail. Last known whereabouts was Atlanta according to cell phone records, but he has now turned off his cells.
I feel bad using unemployment because I have 30k in savings, but at the same time, I don't want to put myself in a position where I watch my savings go away.
I don't think you should feel bad about collecting unemployment. You paid for the insurance while you were working.
You also were paying for record Goldman bonuses via AIG, FNM, FRE and all the other bailout actions.
Of course, I'm not so sure a gov't job at 50% pay cut is productive, either but at least I'd spend time on doing something interesting instead constantly defending myself from predators who want my paycheck. A factor often ignored for free market enthusiasts.
....OK, the FedGov talks up almost 10% (U-3), U-6 is at 16+%, and the real SGS stats with discouraged workers is over 20%+ NOT INCLUDING any of the 18.6 million (2005 figures)1099 workers. These are Depression era figures anyway you want to slice it. I'd like to think the -200 pts today was just the FedGov's way of moving more investors into bonds from equities, but this might in fact be the last sudden rush straight downhill to the station before this "E-Ticket Ride" ends.
Does anyone know if any of the "new more improved" RRE loans are being changed from non-recourse to recourse loans during cramdown or "adjustment"?
"I am close to giving up the practice of law altogether. Any alternative career advice for soon-to-be former attorneys? "
Take some accounting courses and sit for the CPA exam. They exempt you from the Law section.
No one grows up wanting to be a CPA, so there's lots of jobs.
"One interesting thing... I am finding the parks (mostly free in my state) to be more and more crowded these days. "
The San Jose Merc reported that parents in the pretty well-heeled SiliValley were cutting back on expensive multi-week summer camps and organized activities for the kiddies and telling the kids to have more of a bike-and-baseball summer. That's another part of the same elephant.
When California is forced into a Constitutional Convention as a condition of Federal assistance and the allowing of folding existing pension health care programs into the new Fedicare I intend to lobby that any J.D. or previously elected person be disqualified from participating.
On Topic; what do we call this? "Adverserer scenario?" Personally I'm enamored (nod to the Princess Bride) with "Inconceivable Scenario."
the implications of that school decision are huge. think about it - what is someone paying for when they pay for the real estate which is holding values at $350/sq/ft+, especially in CA? A good school district. This decision means such a thing simply won't exist anymore, anywhere. it literally is the death knell of the remaining quality public school districts in the country. And a huge negative towards property values contingent upon the quality of those schools.
Heckuva job, JR and Scalito... way to take the Reagan revolution to its logical extreme by 'bleeding the beast'
"The credit supply will continue to shrink, which means that wealth and purchasing power will disappear along with it. In the broadest sense, this change will constitute a collapse in the money supply....To be sure, the central bank does have the power to print banknotes. But I expect that the final implosion in credit value will be so swift that the authorities will not act in time to counter it. They will continue to to try to maintain the fictions of full face value of IOUs until they fail spectacularly to keep up the scam."
Switch to bankruptcy law. I have a friend who graduated from law school last year at the age of 58 and found a job immediately. He's up to his eyeballs in work.
"I am close to giving up the practice of law altogether. Any alternative career advice for soon-to-be former attorneys? "
According to some of our posters, all you unemployed lawyers should be flocking to do pro bono work, making gov't funded legal services agencies unnecessary. Yeah, right.
Don't feel guilty about $30K in the bank, that can go like the wind.
Whatever you do, keep one foot in the game; you've invested a lot, it should be used until things get better. I know a guy who became a lawyer late in life, practiced for a bit, then retired on investments that subsequently vaporized. He now works the desk at the gym I belong to, talking to people all day. And management let him put up a small sign and hand out cards. From the contacts he's made, he's now got a fairly steady estate/trust/will business going on the side.
HH,
Quality education in California died November 1978. It's been inertia since then. And no, not Prop 13 that also passed coincidentally that same month. Rather, that was when the CA Supreme Court determined that funding local schools with local taxes was discriminatory. The result was Harrison Bergeron.
Not nearly enough volume to signify anything other then business as usual from the standpoint of your comment. I just wonder that the system put the biggest ever debt-sale, a FED meeting and the end of the qtr. within 6 trading days of each other.
Learning in California was dealt a house of cards in the mid-80's, when it was decided that a state lottery was just the panacea for all that ailed education funding...
"Quality education in California died November 1978. It's been inertia since then. And no, not Prop 13 that also passed coincidentally that same month. Rather, that was when the CA Supreme Court determined that funding local schools with local taxes was discriminatory. The result was Harrison Bergeron."
Rob, I will actually agree with you that this was a huge problem. It should have been solved politically. It wasn't. And That was a big selling point behind Prop. 13.
"Quality education in California died November 1978."
yet some school districts (or even individual HSs within questionable districts, eg lincoln in SF) have maintained decent scores and class sizes at the very least. this means even those will be having UC-freshman-intro size classes.
also, i'd argue that the UCs were doing reasonably well in their pledge to provide cheap quality higher education until the past few years, when 'fees' began to climb into the high five-digits. but those days are emphatically gone now, of course. personally, i choose to demonize boomer admins making 300K+, though the causes are many and varied.
@ JD,
Just like South Carolina.
Gambling was "evil" and a "sin"; so "they" got rid of the video poker machines that many small biz relied on for revenue.
Then "they" introduced: An Education Lottery!
JPs excellent lottery: Write down the odds of you choosing, say 6 out of 36 numbers correctly. Mail that piece of paper in with 5 bucks to your local state education board, who will pick a name from the correct answers out of a hat.
Rich districts still garner more income; but some of it is redistributed, and that caused a lot of anger when it started back in the '70s.
Also, some of the well-to-do schools in well-to-do districts now ask for "suggested" donations from parents for children to fund various programs -- music, art, special aides for this or that. This can range from a few hundred to a few thousand (for a charter high school about two blocks from me.) And you can bet there's a lot of pressure to take the 'suggestion."
About UC, I'll say what I've said before; as state budget contributions have dropped over the past decade, tuitions have risen and programs have been cut. At least they finally got around to clearing out UCOP.
Also, my friends in Registration tell me that new " bridge" classes (aka remedial reading, math, and analytical skills classes) are on the schedule this year for the privileged generation who are exquisitely skilled in passing AP classes and entrance exams -- and in nothing else. New expenses...
@Bob & Rob, "Quality education in California died November 1978. It's been inertia since then. And no, not Prop 13 that also passed coincidentally that same month. Rather, that was when the CA Supreme Court determined that funding local schools with local taxes was discriminatory..."
Yeah, it has been a huge problem. In areas like the SF Peninsula, our solution has been to support our public schools with private money (our own). The result is what I call "semi-private" schools that still provide quality education. Of course, the poorer districts are SOL...
I see that my comment is late to the fray, but, perhaps I can help with the question as to what EXHTRATE signifies. The des page says,"The exhaustion rate is the rate at which people who started collecting unemployment insurance benefits have used up their allotted payments before finding a job."
For those without a Bloomberg, the chart looks like a rocket launch, with the current number (which I assume is a percentage) at 47.06 To put that # in perspective, in January of '08, it was at 35%.
Energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 2:21 pm
RD, If the bond market starts to blow, will we get Bernanke doing his best Black Knight (ht Holy Grail)?
When the bond market overflows its banks I expect a two stage process. First denial/backroom/CalvinFed. That won't work. Second capitulation and promises of a healthy catharsis. That won't work either but it is too soon to predict beyond.
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 2:24 pm
I'd argue that the UCs were doing reasonably well in their pledge to provide cheap quality higher education until the past few years, when 'fees' began to climb into the high five-digits. but those days are emphatically gone now, of course. personally, i choose to demonize boomer admins making 300K+, though the causes are many and varied.
Having shelled out an Acura to UCLA for school year 08-09 and facing paying for a Lexus for 09-10 I'd agree.
For the record. I am in one of those semi-private public schools for K-8 and still have one in that program. We get the 2nd lowest tier of State funding because we don't have enough minorities or poor students. The rest is made up with supplemental funding sources. Still, all funding considered it totals far less than the districts that get extra funds from the State because they have poor performance or the "right" colored children.
I think more than a few folks are starting to come around to my take on recent events in terms of the generational impact of the boomers.
clinton - brilliant but amoral and supremely narcissistic
w - boomer narcissism and anti-intellectualism taken to a buddha/christ-like extreme
bho - the classic late boomer, an intellectual empty vessel, the softest of putty in the hands of earlier boomers and their WS masters
More borrowing ? Why should we borrow our own money ?
We are going to have a severe oversupply of Gov notes and bonds as it is.
The only way out of our conundrum is debt free money, Lincoln's "Greenbacks".
We underwrite this debt free credit with higher taxes on high income, capital gains, dividends and estates. Further tax increases should be a phased in carbon tax and taxes on sweeteners, carbonation, salt and tran fats while instituting an FTT or Tobin Tax on financial transactions ...
We can not solve our $50 trillion aggregate debt problem and our looming social program expansion with more debt ... The key is to cycle debt free money through the system then squeezing it out again from those that can afford to pay.
Remember what caused the problem, income and wealth disparity? You can't solve that by lowering taxes. And you can't get the economy moving again by throwing money at the banks and the rich ... We need debt free money ...
""Nobel Economist Phelps says it may take 15 years for the US to recover lost wealth" "
the question is, was all of that "lost" wealth real in the first place? No pun intended, I have a huge respect to any economist who is capable of wining 8 gold medals in one Olympicz. : )
too much of the exitement.. is rather bad for making rational investment decisions; yes we canz!!!
yes- but then Krugman goes on to prescribe a set of policies that might work if he had a cyclical downturn. If his professional economics work is similar to the quality of his analysis we are really screwed considering that he got Nobel Prize for it.
Case in point t-his argument that the US ran total debt in excess of 100% of GDP during the war therefore it can run it again. I think if one of his undergraduate students made that observation he would/should fail them for failing to acknowledge that the important part of the war debt was not its size but the fact that government paid it all down . Does anybody believe that is what is going to happen this time around.
Plus there is the obvious other point- American consumers had nothing to spend money on during the war and so financing the governments debt was a lot easier.
Not to worry...the swine flu will strike down the populace by at least 25%. Since it's the young and elderly...we will save a bundle on health care and Social Security costs. The rest can breed like rabbits and repopulate. Problem solved...Have a nice Depression!
the US ran total debt in excess of 100% of GDP during the war therefore it can run it again
WWII was about shared sacrifice against a common enemy; now, it's about the death throes of a kleptocracy. Behaviorally, I think there might be some important differences.
Well that's one of the interesting things of living on The Peninsula. Tons of poorer Somoans and Mexican families on the lowlands and well to do Whites and Asians in the hills. The result is pretty diverse high schools with good test results and the affluent kids all moving away and the poor kids going south or east by about 150 miles.
It also causes you to scoff whenever someone mentions the "diversity of the northwest" when 75% of people are white.
"Further tax increases should be a phased in carbon tax and taxes on sweeteners, carbonation, salt and tran fats while instituting an FTT or Tobin Tax on financial transactions ..."
That can't be a serious suggestion without including high-fructose corn syrup and eliminating the gov't farm subsidies that make it affordable.
//Not to worry...the swine flu will strike down the populace by at least 25%. Since it's the young and elderly...we will save a bundle on health care and Social Security costs. The rest can breed like rabbits and repopulate. Problem solved...Have a nice Depression!//
10% is a joke statement. U6 is already over 16% per the pretty gov numbers. Then factor in those fallen off the rolls with no jobs, small business owner and independent contractors that are ineligable. Way over 20% already.
Maybe they can decide to re-evaluate how they come up with the numbers - again.
From what I have read about the flu, older people are somewhat immune due to being exposed to flu in the 70s. Some sort of common strain. It is the younger mid 20s and 30s that get sickest from our current flu.
"Further tax increases should be a phased in carbon tax and taxes on sweeteners, carbonation, salt and tran fats while instituting an FTT or Tobin Tax on financial transactions ..."
That can't be a serious suggestion without including high-fructose corn syrup and eliminating the gov't farm subsidies that make it affordable.
~~~~
I didn't say it would happen, most of my suggestions are food for thought ...
As the situation gets dire real solutions just might have a chance ...
If the truth were being reported we'd be having riots in the streets. And meanwhile the top
execs in banks and brokerages that caused such a mess are STILL employed and making
millions while laying off THOUSANDS of people that actually do work. If you know anyone in
banking that's still employed, odds are they are doing the work of three people so the top
execs can show 'savings' and continue collecting mega-incomes.
"WWII was about shared sacrifice against a common enemy; now, it's about the death throes of a kleptocracy. Behaviorally, I think there might be some important differences."
Well, before that we had a decade of cleaning up after the last kleptocracy. Then we had a war. No inherent reason that can't repeat, but I'd rather skip the war.
"From what I have read about the flu, older people are somewhat immune due to being exposed to flu in the 70s. Some sort of common strain. It is the younger mid 20s and 30s that get sickest from our current flu."
Swine flu; it was a big scare in the mid-70s, didn't amount to much. Didn't turn killer.
Since the new flu has a swine component, I'd bet that's why 40-somethings and above weren't as affected. Though I finally just lost the cough from a head/chest/stomach bug that worked me over for most of six weeks, and I'll always wonder if I had "it."
How can we effectively have a war? China is buying Hummer. Our auto plants can't seem to retool to save their lives. Do we order our equipment from China or India or Brazil?
"not sure about that - I'd argue that WW2 began with the invasion of Manchuria in '31 and ended with the KMT evacuation of the mainland in late '49."
Well, if you want to go that far, you can simply argue that WW I never ended; just adjourned for a while and came back as WWII/Europe. But in terms of substantiveU.S. involvement, my recollection is that didn't start until after '39, when we started to become the "arsenal of democracy" for our Euro allies.
"that parents of special-education students may seek government reimbursement for private school tuition, even if they have never received special-education services in public school."
More ways for parents to scam money...find a compliant shrink or psychologist, get a diagnosis of attention deficit disorder, and bill your neighbors for private school tuition.
Seriously, as a renter, I just watch the reasons never to buy pile up.
He means 10% OFFICIAL unemployment, this is the modified figure that excludes the following people
adults who have been out of work for 6 weeks or more
adults who have exhausted benefits
adults under the age of 21
adults in a household with at least 1 income
any adult who's inclusion pushes the figures about 10%
Clearly the administration is living in some kind of alternate reality as there is no way to get unemployment down that quickly.
Unless we adopt some old USSR/East German employment schemes of having the govt. subsides thousands of make-work jobs. I guess those would be the 'green jobs'.
Unemployed: 10 (mostly laid-off co-workers who haven't found work yet)
Over a year: 1
Pay cut: in a month or so, 50 -- all co-workers
Hours cut: again in a month or so, 53 (including the same fifty from above.
American involvement in WW2 was strictly as a sideshow act. There wasn't a single yankee within hundreds of miles of Kursk when it happened, to my knowledge, nor did we have a single pair of boots on the ground in mainland China.
I'd argue that the final gasp of the Ottoman/Hapsburg axis WAS substantively different than the Japanese/Euro-Fascist axis, though it isn't hard to draw a line in terms of grievances and causality.
Unless we adopt some old USSR/East German employment schemes of having the govt. subsides thousands of make-work jobs. I guess those would be the 'green jobs'.
There are 6 million Special Ed students...this just opened the floodgates for free private education on the property owner's dime...no prior attendance or diagnosis of learning disabilities required. Man, anyone who owns residential real estate continues to be a sitting duck.
"In its appeal, the Forest Grove School District said students should be forced to at least give public special education programs a try before seeking reimbursement for private tuition. If not, parents would bypass public schools and go directly to private school — and then ask for reimbursement from school systems already burdened by ever-increasing costs."
From the U.S. Department of Education. Just under 67,000 pupils were in private placements in 2007 — just 1.1 percent of the country's nearly 6 million special education students.
his argument that the US ran total debt in excess of 100% of GDP during the war
Krugman conveniently forgets that we had almost hale a million prime-of-their-lives men out of the job market and into war uniforms. Half of them dies, the other half came back to the same job market and we had to reassign many of the Rose Riverters into school teaching (by extending the number of years of compulsory education.. which also kept young 'uns out of the job market al ittle longer to the returning GI's could be absorbed into the job market ) or into the new concept of "housewife", and still had to create low-cost loans via the GI Bill.
FDR's chewing-gum-and-bailing-wire fixes lasted a long time, but there were not (and should never have been considered as) long-term solutions.
Krugman is the ultimate can-kicker. Time for his can to be kicked.
josap asked: "How many people do each of us know who has lost a job, who has been out of work for over a year, who has taken a wage or hour cut?
Just a survey among ourselves may show a good idea of the numbers...."
Not a single one, and I'm in a state that just recently broke its own record for unemployment, a level that rivals that of California. There is no one among family, friends or acquaintances that I have, either here or in other states, that has lost a job, or had their hours/pay cut back.
The only thing I can figure is that I'm not in the demographic (for lack of a better description) of the people losing their jobs. Our local housing market also continues to hold up far better than elsewhere, despite the high unemployment.
Hack,
you must be joking...you've never heard of the Flying Tigers...
Commanded by Clare Chenault of Louisiana, the Flying Tigers were a bunch of hard-drinking airmen who became known as some of the bravest pilots to fly during World War II. In 1937, Chenault, a retired U.S. Army captain, was hired as an advisor to the fledgling Chinese Air Force. He began to lay the groundwork for the American Volunteer Group by having runways built and ordering planes from U.S. manufacturer Curtiss-Wright.
The first contingent of American Volunteer Group pilots left San Francisco on July 10, 1941, aboard the Dutch ship Jaegersfontaine. Just before leaving, Chennault received confirmation of Presidential approval for the second American Volunteer Group of bombers with a schedule of 100 pilots and 181 gunners and radio men to arrive in China by November, 1941, and an equal number to follow in January, 1942.
Overall, the Flying Tigers were undefeated against the Japanese Air Force in more than 50 air battles.
After the American Volunteer Group was disbanded on July 4, 1942, the China Air Task Force of the United States Army Air Forces, commanded by General Chennault, officially took over air operations in China. In early March, 1943, the 14th Air Force was activated under the command of Chennault and replaced the China Air Task Force. Chennault remained in command of the 14th Air Force until the end of July, 1945. General Chennault formally retired from the military for the second time in October, 1945.
Americans are already "shovel ready". We have been shoveling OUT all the shit the Gov't has been shoveling IN through the MSM for decades and especially since "the one" took office. Change I can see.....POVERTY for the masses.
Money Man (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 5:36 pm
Americans are already "shovel ready". We have been shoveling OUT all the shit the Gov't has been shoveling IN through the MSM for decades and especially since "the one" took office. Change I can see.....POVERTY for the masses.
Of course it won't be called by that name. The need to sacrifice for the common good, the 'greed' or irresponsibility of "us all", and a few more figurehead prosecutions and perp walks will sufficiently allay the masses' desire for justice/revenge/reparations as BHO encourages us all to take one for the team. Meanwhile society quietly restructures around the financial megaliths we know all too well, and we end up with a rigid two class structure composed of those with generational levels of wealth and everybody else from the working poor to the working rich, which is vampirized by an ever-growing tax-exempt bureaucrat class until there is nothing left to extract.
these guys are brilliant. What astute prognosticators to predict U3 going to 10!!Even with the bogus b/d model, we're already at 9.6. Brilliant, I tell ya.
When the arty ex-pat Austrian strongman leader closes down 200+ state parks, there's going to be an awful strain on the few National Parks in California to absorb all the people, like a tourist funnel.
<
p>Didn't we just get some new legislation that those strained tourists can now bring in concealed weapons?
Thanks for all the suggestions, I have considered bankruptcy practice but I know several attorneys who say the Fed Bankruptcy court in Houston has a tendency to grind cases to a halt, so there isn't much work.
If I want to be an accountant, do I, like, have to be good at math and stuff?
"Nobel Economist Phelps says it may take 15 years for the US to recover lost wealth"
is nemo at lunch?
Tell me this announcement isn't coincidental, the day before the Fed starts meeting.
Are we winning yet?
Well, so much for the recent rally.
Now what?
10% Q3.
11% Q4
12% Q1 FY10
13% Q2 FY10
....
--bh
rd - what do you mean?
Ass-covering, finger-pointing, back-stabbing behavior, although I suspect Dawg will characterize in positive terms of "productivity".
Seen it increase a ton since the 2001 crash.
Productivity is probably down quite a bit, though.
hmmmm FAZ up 15.5%........How are those FAS puts doing?
I'll match blackhat's 10% national Q3 with 13.5% CA Q3. It's gonna be an ugly ride down the slopes...
Those of you (who can still afford the luxury of) a trusty Bloomberg will note the ‘exhaustion rate’ for jobless benefits - EXHTRATE – reveals that people are not leaving the pool of continuing unemployment claims because they are getting new jobs; Rather, they are leaving because they have exhausted their benefits.
Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate” | The Big Picture
Exhausted Claims part II | The Big Picture
So maybe the rate will start to decline even as things get worse (UE wise)
Already 12%+ here in scenic South Carolina!
WallSt Tantrum ahead of the Fed meeting coupled with WH threats about UE rate should be all the cover GiveItUp Bernanke needs.
my over/under is 12%.
u6 should bust through 20% soon. Will the masses be gleaning in the wheatfields like the biblical Ruth?
EXHTRATE
Wow. Thanks.
I'm still waiting for someone to calculate the UE/FC multiplier. I'm thinking with the leverage that the newer home owners had it could be pretty high.... 0.25 to 0.3333
(IE a quarter to a third of all new UE cases result in a foreclosure....)
10% unemployment ... don't worry about it, its a lagging indicator. Green shoots, green shoots, green shoots!
Yea when you're a stud blogger and you nailed this whole thing you get to make up your own words i guess....
Quite a few Unabankers have small cabins in the Bretton Woods, plotting away.
ghost-
It's not....just part of the game to use actual fundamentals at a point where they want them to matter.
the other POS news is the world bank cut of it's growth forecast...well correct me if I
m wrong but a shrinkage (in deference to G. Costanzo) is not growth but I think the word that is missing is "down-climb".
But what do you want from a gov't that needs to sell $165b in debt this week?
Ciao
MS
U6 hits 25% and all bets are off where this goes. That would be sometime next year, probably Q4.
--bh
Forget double dip, ... can anyone say triple dip?
From looking at the chart, we dipped around 01 and 07!
Despite the huge drop, the S&P 500 is still over-valued on a historical basis. Given the backdrop of excess debt, I don't see the point in owning equities - they're first in line for losses. I also don't see how anybody can buy the green shoots mantra.
Inflation, I don't see it, but I respect the arguments.
Deflation, we earned it, but Bernanke won't allow it, at least not a large deflation.
Green shoots????? Get serious. I see no basis for this thesis other than polyanna wall street bs.
We already have a nationwide U3 of over 10% (If you remove the BLS adjustments)
When the arty ex-pat Austrian strongman leader closes down 200+ state parks, there's going to be an awful strain on the few National Parks in California to absorb all the people, like a tourist funnel.
AS-
but they got out all those equity issues in the time being......
Is BAC finished? I don't recall ever seeing that they actually raised the full amount.....
Ciao
MS
Agree Lucifer.
U3 ought to be 10% at least if you throwout the BLS fake jobs creation stuff.
But even using the tilted game board with the marked cards with the sanded dice, the numbers still suck.
--bh
"Nobel Economist Phelps says it may take 15 years for the US to recover lost wealth"
Real wealth doesn't vanish overnight. You can't lose what you never actually had.
Fraud and fiction are not wealth. Except on wall street where the fed magically turns fictitious wealth into real spendable cash. What a sham.
Not to worry.
People won't have money for hot dogs to take to the park.
Anyone else think that Alan Blinder is really Larry David?
BAC raised all they needed.
I expect that the FED will increase the QE (as others have said already) but the language that comes out with it will say something like "in order to speed up the recovery...."
Ciao
MS
BAC raised all they needed.
And if not, they'll just jam up the market so they can raise more.
Im a bit confused on that announcement. It doesnt really fit in with the general theme since day 1 of stoking confidence. Or did people think we'd be at 12% in a few months, and this is something optimistic?
As for Alan Blinder...isnt he just Bernanke's butt kissing boy?
I'll still visit state parks...too many great ones in my neck of the woods..are they going to close the gates?
"I'm still waiting for someone to calculate the UE/FC multiplier."
i'm seeing an exciting re-tooling of the misery index here...
Might our peers celebrate the end of the dollar being the world's reserve currency on July 4th?
Independent Day
are they going to close the gates?
No, but they're going to bulldoze the roads & facilities to create jobs.
MS,
Current real trend earnings for the S&P 500 are ~ $40/share. And the long run trend is in doubt given the huge and unpayable level of bogus debt in our eCONomy.
IMO, stocks should be trading at a steep discount to historical valuations. 600 is the top of the range.
Just thoughts.
When Federal stuff was shut down in the 1990's, they closed the gates to National Parks...
Im a bit confused on that announcement.\
This wasn't an "announcement," in the official sense, but rather Gibbs making a comment, probably in the course of the daily press briefing. Nor is it breaking news, as Obama had already made the concession last week in the interview with Bloomberg.
I wonder if Grover Norquist will cry happy tears when Legoland, Disney, etc, are the only park options left in southern california
@ JD,
I doubt the folks growing 10,000/ 20,000 plant gardens full of pot are going to stay out because the parks are "closed".
On the Fed meeting, I expect the wording to change suggesting the Fed will hold rates at the current level for an extended period. I think that will be the biggest announcement
best to all
Now, here is a green shoot:
"CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Nearly half of American adults who participated in a recent survey said they no longer believe that homeownership is a realistic way to build wealth, the National Foundation for Credit Counseling reported on Monday."
Link
What's sad about our society is $6-12 dollar entrance fees to state parks are considered high while 3 mocha lattes is not an issue, or how one xbox video costs 5 entrance fees....everyone in the US who hasn't read Thoreau "Walden ponds" to see how simple really is beautiful should...it could help with psyche thru this event...
Will someone in the press ask Robert Gibbs to explain the difference between U3 ( 10 percent unemployment now - not within the next few months ) and U6 ( about 2x ) which depicts true economic reality
Probably not....
thanks Basel...i didnt hear/read the initial report of that, so I thought this was "news."
looks like the CRVIX gave birth today
CR: I agree. In the last thread, I suggested that the Fed is going to take a wait and see approach. Compared to 3 months ago, the banks have stabilized and people aren't panicking. I suspect the Fed would rather not expand their QE program just yet. OTOH, these guys all believe that the GD lasted as long as it did because enough wasn't done early enough. So perhaps ghostface is onto something - that the Fed will want to expand QE sooner rather than later.
Regardless, I am amused that we now trade and "invest" according to our readings of the bearded one. The most advanced economy in the world is now hanging by the adroit money printing and dilution orchestrated in a conference room in DC. Amazing.
If there is no explicit mention of a ramp-up in treasury or agency purchases, look out below in the stocks. If there is explicit mention of a ramp-up, and it's a big number, look out below in the dollar. These guys are backed into quite a corner.
I doubt the folks growing 10,000/ 20,000 plant gardens full of pot are going to stay out because the parks are "closed".
10,000 Points of Green Shoots
A Nobel prize winner does not know the difference between wealth, money and notional money. We are in trouble..
//"Nobel Economist Phelps says it may take 15 years for the US to recover lost wealth"//
Ah, the old setting low expectations so they can later beat expectations later down the road. They'll pull the old Jack Welchian "beat by a penny" routine. Green shoots indeed.
AS-
I don't disagree at all with that.....the reason we had the "blast" up was that it could be accomplished.....that's the sorry state of what we call free markets. Self-actualized markets IMO. We say therefore it is done.
Ciao
MS
I am amused that we now trade and "invest" according to our readings of the bearded one.
How is this different than hanging on the words of Mr. Magoo during the 1990s?
i think the real collision course is between the states and fed here - the states need real money. badly. congress and the white house, on principle as an organ of the federal reserve, despise the concept.
Sad that our society can't/ won't just legalize cannabis and stop all the destruction. Yeah, there are many old. respect-the-earth hippies growing but also a bunch of wanna be gangsta pharmers trashing the land.
amazingly, the great smoky mountain national park and blue ridge parkway are still totally free. If you want to get really high on beauty , go during the last two weeks of October. Founded for the people during the last great depression!
@ reflation
AGREED!
banning any drug just allows criminals to make money.. it does not affect availability.
//Sad that our society can't/ won't just legalize cannabis and stop all the destruction. //
How is this different than hanging on the words of Mr. Magoo during the 1990s?
@broward: What planet were you on man? We invested in the 90s based on impressions and click throughs. True economic fundamentals.
IMHO, the 90s were driven by the euphoria of the internet generating true productivity gains. Mr. Magoo just provided the juice. Other than a few key scary points, I don't remember really being worried about interest rates.
JD-I would say those numbers will grow if so.....notes to self: pick up mini glock for hiking...forget the binocs....
@ Lucifer
WHAT?
You're saying that their are DRUGS for sale in America despite a 40+ year 'war' on them?
Say it ain't so, oh evil one.
Oh, come on.
Greenspan's words were parsed beyond belief.
Don't make me do a meme graph.
kilroy-
they care deeply about re-inflating asset prices....not so much the dollars (which can be "delivered" to participants) that are used to purchase said assets.
They own it already.....hence the need to inflate. The comment from Krugman just nails it...it's as if the last 25 year's of credit creation was a cyclical market event.
It's wasn't
Ciao
MS
Lucifer,
more incisive: banning any drug just allows criminals.
And why are criminals so important to have but as physical display/spectacle of the power of the state?
--bh
I scored a key of pot marjoram from my dealer, a couple weeks ago.
@ JD,
You are one insane lad.
Self-actualized markets IMO. We say therefore it is done.
Propaganda and liquidity (cash for trash) only work in the short term. Longer term, we get out only what we actually earn. And financial tomfoolery doesn't count towards long run output.
I see heartache ahead. Be it 1 month or 10 years, asset prices and returns on "investments" will eventually meet reality.
It ain't going to be pleasant.
The comment from Krugman just nails it...it's as if the last 25 year's of credit creation was a cyclical market event.
It was.
The actual credit bubble began in 1982-83.
It's not completely surprising that prices might retrace back to that period.
I got my first credit card as a college grad in 1994.
$500 limit and I needed a parent to co-sign despite the fact I was over 21 and had the same job for three years.
In 2004, you could do a 15 min. cash out refi in the kiosk at the mall.
How could anything go wrong?
Read into it what you will, but my dollars were of no value in the Bretton Woods and would buy me nothing there in my 4 day sojourn...
so if we have universal health care, with the taxpayers picking up a significant chunk of the tab, what happens the capital already allocated in employee health funds (e.g. GM VEBA, CalPERS, etc)?
Ghost & others- Can you explain to me what this EXHTRATE on bbg is showing exactly? I get that it's the exhaustion of benefits, but what does the 47% signify?
"The actual credit bubble began in 1982-83."
right, when Sal Bros' cute little trick in mortgage securitization began to snowball and become emulated at other firms... liars' poker is still a fun read.
early 70s - BW launches experiment in 100% fiat
early 80s - mortgage securitization turns every house in america into a global, fungible asset
early 90s - FNM/FRE lobbyists take over DC
I see no basis for this thesis other than polyanna wall street bs.
There are the hundreds of thousands of jobs that depend on the commissions and fees from selling an asset class that has badly underperformed over the last 30 years.
It's me Dave, I got the TARP-open up!
People did not learn from Prohibition 1.0.
//You're saying that their are DRUGS for sale in America despite a 40+ year 'war' on them?//
Now, here is a green shoot:
"CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Nearly half of American adults who participated in a recent survey said they no longer believe that homeownership is a realistic way to build wealth, the National Foundation for Credit Counseling reported on Monday."
That is indeed a green shoot! Maybe it will foment realistic pricing of houses.
Now when we read the same thing about stocks, then we will truly be on the correct path.
One interesting thing... I am finding the parks (mostly free in my state) to be more and more crowded these days.
BTW, if anyone's interested, here was Stone Mountain in Roaring Gap, NC this past weekend. I did my first friction climb on one of the shallower pitches, then a long hike around the summit:
Brian W. Nash's Photos - Stone Mountain | Facebook
There are the hundreds of thousands of jobs that depend on the commissions and fees from selling an asset class that has badly underperformed over the last 30 years.
At the March 2009 lows, stocks had underperformed long term treasuries for 40 years! Absent the fed & treasury bailouts, the under performance undoubtedly would have been much longer. Stocks for the long run?
The greatest story never told!
maybe their presence creates the need for law and order?
//And why are criminals so important to have but as physical display/spectacle of the power of the state?//
broward-
May be I didn't choose the correct words however we are not going to return to the highs as if this downturn is just a random correction that is normal to the function of markets.
It wasn't normal to achieve the high's in 2007 (based on fundamentals, sound risk-profiles etc) but we got there. Returning to it is a pipe dream when you factor in what will be destroyed in order to achieve it.
Ciao
MS
When I was 10, a four-finger-lid (sandwich baggie 4 fingers high) was $10, and now an appropriate amount would be closer to $100 @ street value.
I am finding the parks (mostly free in my state) to be more and more crowded these days.
That would be me, that's what I do now, hike around in parks.
It''s a free activity that kills 3-4 hours.
If in a properly functioning marketplace capital flows to the best alternative wouldn't by definition in the long run stocks and bonds perform equally as well? I realize we all do not invest over a long enough period of time in order for it to equal out for all of us.
It wasn't normal to achieve the high's in 2007
I think it's fairly obvious that this is simply a continuation of the 2001-2003 Crash.
We had a four year bear rally, mostly because of extreme manipulation by the Feds who know perfectly well what is happening re: the credit cycle.
We've been Neo-conned!
It's what I do with my weekends too, Broward. It's probably what I'll do when I'm unemployed here in a few months.
JD that was different stuff tho.....
If in a properly functioning marketplace capital flows to the best alternative wouldn't by definition in the long run stocks and bonds perform equally as well?
No. If the returns were the same, then rational investors should choose bonds, which ahead in the line in bankruptcy court (ie, bonds are less risky.)
capital structure? how antiquated...
yep......Also one must factor in the "invention" of the repo. process in Oct. '02....I wondered at the time why there was a need to exchange paper for money if we were in some part of recovery....
"just shop" were the two most dangerous words ever uttered. It sealed our fate and encumbered us to what is now playing out in slow motion and we have a front row seat.
Given enough time we see how it was built for the very few who made it all up.
Ciao
MS
broward,
I wish daily but will take weekends..
Zack-Nice pictures..gopher snake?
Unemployed Texas lawyer here, collecting $417 per week in unemployment benefits.
I can think of 5 other lawyers off the top of my head that have lost their job in the past month. I know at least 20 lawyers who have been out of work since February. There are temp projects available, but they last 2 weeks, make me ineligible for for unemployment after I finish the project, and after running the numbers, I would actually LOSE money by taking these positions.
I feel bad using unemployment because I have 30k in savings, but at the same time, I don't want to put myself in a position where I watch my savings go away.
I am close to giving up the practice of law altogether. Any alternative career advice for soon-to-be former attorneys?
nades,
Indeed~
A friend who is ailing (paper-cut injury on the left pinkie finger from 1987) and has a medical mj license, brought back something called "Tangerine" which had a most citrusy aroma. How do they do that?
OT ALERT:
This one goes to 11.
The Tap is Back: Spinal Tap Return for One Night Only | wltx.com
"wouldn't by definition in the long run stocks and bonds perform equally as well?"
equities are too often used as wealth extraction tools for execs (e.g., backdated options), and their volatility attracts flippers. both of these factors erode their utility as 'investments'. this is why i love direxion products - the only honest equities in the market, explicitly designed for short-term gambling.
Black rat snake, CCLT. Not dangerous, unless, well, have you ever seen one peeing while whipping around?
I wish I knew... /mouth watering now.... lol....
OT: but was the subject of a late-night OT discussion.
Court Says Parents of Special-Education Students Can Seek Reimbursement
In a decision that could cost school districts millions of dollars, the United States Supreme Court ruled on Monday that parents of special-education students may seek government reimbursement for private school tuition, even if they have never received special-education services in public school.
The case before the court involved a struggling Oregon high school student, identified in court documents only as T.A., whose parents removed him from public school in the Forest Grove district part way though his junior year, and enrolled him in a $5,200-a-month residential school.
"Any alternative career advice for soon-to-be former attorneys? "
i have a hard time believing that tax and bankruptcy law is totally devoid of opportunities. i advise every lawyer and law student i meet to consider retooling towards those niches.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 1:11 pm
rd - what do you mean?
Ass-covering, finger-pointing, back-stabbing behavior, although I suspect Dawg will characterize in positive terms of "productivity".
Seen it increase a ton since the 2001 crash.
Productivity is probably down quite a bit, though.
LOL. Yes, those too. I was in one job where I really made a "Pearl Harbor File." It made it possible for me to get another job via a neutral recommendation rather than open the file. N.B. The "neutral" recommendation was meant to be a rebuke but enough industry people knew the situation such that it was far more a positive than a glowing recommendation would have been.
Scott Adams is omniscient.
The illustrious Governor of South Carolina has disappeared. He left on Thursday in a state-owned black SUV, not divulging his destination to his wife or his security detail. Last known whereabouts was Atlanta according to cell phone records, but he has now turned off his cells.
Wife says she's not worried.
Maybe he's hanging out with you, Basel Too?
I feel bad using unemployment because I have 30k in savings, but at the same time, I don't want to put myself in a position where I watch my savings go away.
I don't think you should feel bad about collecting unemployment. You paid for the insurance while you were working.
You also were paying for record Goldman bonuses via AIG, FNM, FRE and all the other bailout actions.
@ JD and Nades,
I suggest that you "Ask Ed".
Ask Ed: Grow Questions and Answers - Continuous Harvest | Cannabis Culture Magazine
"I am close to giving up the practice of law altogether. Any alternative career advice for soon-to-be former attorneys? "
I take it you don't want to do bankruptcies?
There's always politics. Seems to be in a bull market right now.
"In a decision that could cost school districts "
not OT at all - the dire fiscal situation of the states should be front-and-center in any econ/finance discussion.
can't believe JR and Scalito concurred - unless the idea is just to cause school districts across the country to fold
self-serving churn <> productivity
Of course, I'm not so sure a gov't job at 50% pay cut is productive, either but at least I'd spend time on doing something interesting instead constantly defending myself from predators who want my paycheck. A factor often ignored for free market enthusiasts.
whatever sanford is doing, it wouldn't surprise me if he's doing it on "the down low"
....OK, the FedGov talks up almost 10% (U-3), U-6 is at 16+%, and the real SGS stats with discouraged workers is over 20%+ NOT INCLUDING any of the 18.6 million (2005 figures)1099 workers. These are Depression era figures anyway you want to slice it. I'd like to think the -200 pts today was just the FedGov's way of moving more investors into bonds from equities, but this might in fact be the last sudden rush straight downhill to the station before this "E-Ticket Ride" ends.
Does anyone know if any of the "new more improved" RRE loans are being changed from non-recourse to recourse loans during cramdown or "adjustment"?
"I am close to giving up the practice of law altogether. Any alternative career advice for soon-to-be former attorneys? "
Take some accounting courses and sit for the CPA exam. They exempt you from the Law section.
No one grows up wanting to be a CPA, so there's lots of jobs.
"One interesting thing... I am finding the parks (mostly free in my state) to be more and more crowded these days. "
The San Jose Merc reported that parents in the pretty well-heeled SiliValley were cutting back on expensive multi-week summer camps and organized activities for the kiddies and telling the kids to have more of a bike-and-baseball summer. That's another part of the same elephant.
Let the hoi unempolloied eat upside-down cake...
When California is forced into a Constitutional Convention as a condition of Federal assistance and the allowing of folding existing pension health care programs into the new Fedicare I intend to lobby that any J.D. or previously elected person be disqualified from participating.
On Topic; what do we call this? "Adverserer scenario?" Personally I'm enamored (nod to the Princess Bride) with "Inconceivable Scenario."
the implications of that school decision are huge. think about it - what is someone paying for when they pay for the real estate which is holding values at $350/sq/ft+, especially in CA? A good school district. This decision means such a thing simply won't exist anymore, anywhere. it literally is the death knell of the remaining quality public school districts in the country. And a huge negative towards property values contingent upon the quality of those schools.
Heckuva job, JR and Scalito... way to take the Reagan revolution to its logical extreme by 'bleeding the beast'
This lawyers dilemma is playing out across all fields of previous middle to upper-middle class jobs...
Everybody is poised to take a major pay cut, no matter what their next job is~
From Robert Prechter April 18, 2009:
"The credit supply will continue to shrink, which means that wealth and purchasing power will disappear along with it. In the broadest sense, this change will constitute a collapse in the money supply....To be sure, the central bank does have the power to print banknotes. But I expect that the final implosion in credit value will be so swift that the authorities will not act in time to counter it. They will continue to to try to maintain the fictions of full face value of IOUs until they fail spectacularly to keep up the scam."
Ouch. That sounds a little disruptive.
there should be a "T" after the "EXH."
Switch to bankruptcy law. I have a friend who graduated from law school last year at the age of 58 and found a job immediately. He's up to his eyeballs in work.
"I am close to giving up the practice of law altogether. Any alternative career advice for soon-to-be former attorneys? "
According to some of our posters, all you unemployed lawyers should be flocking to do pro bono work, making gov't funded legal services agencies unnecessary. Yeah, right.
Don't feel guilty about $30K in the bank, that can go like the wind.
Whatever you do, keep one foot in the game; you've invested a lot, it should be used until things get better. I know a guy who became a lawyer late in life, practiced for a bit, then retired on investments that subsequently vaporized. He now works the desk at the gym I belong to, talking to people all day. And management let him put up a small sign and hand out cards. From the contacts he's made, he's now got a fairly steady estate/trust/will business going on the side.
HH,
Quality education in California died November 1978. It's been inertia since then. And no, not Prop 13 that also passed coincidentally that same month. Rather, that was when the CA Supreme Court determined that funding local schools with local taxes was discriminatory. The result was Harrison Bergeron.
RD,
If the bond market starts to blow, will we get Bernanke doing his best Black Knight (ht Holy Grail)?
BSR-
Not nearly enough volume to signify anything other then business as usual from the standpoint of your comment. I just wonder that the system put the biggest ever debt-sale, a FED meeting and the end of the qtr. within 6 trading days of each other.
Something smells funny and it's not jazz*
Ciao
MS
Learning in California was dealt a house of cards in the mid-80's, when it was decided that a state lottery was just the panacea for all that ailed education funding...
Everybody is poised to take a major pay cut, no matter what their next job is~
But to be fair: Salaries got outta wack in some industries. Kids making 100K out of school? that was just nuts.
A lottery to fund a lottery.
Circles within circles.
"Quality education in California died November 1978. It's been inertia since then. And no, not Prop 13 that also passed coincidentally that same month. Rather, that was when the CA Supreme Court determined that funding local schools with local taxes was discriminatory. The result was Harrison Bergeron."
Rob, I will actually agree with you that this was a huge problem. It should have been solved politically. It wasn't. And That was a big selling point behind Prop. 13.
"Quality education in California died November 1978."
yet some school districts (or even individual HSs within questionable districts, eg lincoln in SF) have maintained decent scores and class sizes at the very least. this means even those will be having UC-freshman-intro size classes.
also, i'd argue that the UCs were doing reasonably well in their pledge to provide cheap quality higher education until the past few years, when 'fees' began to climb into the high five-digits. but those days are emphatically gone now, of course. personally, i choose to demonize boomer admins making 300K+, though the causes are many and varied.
@ JD,
Just like South Carolina.
Gambling was "evil" and a "sin"; so "they" got rid of the video poker machines that many small biz relied on for revenue.
Then "they" introduced: An Education Lottery!
WTF?
Then "they" introduced: An Education Lottery!
JPs excellent lottery: Write down the odds of you choosing, say 6 out of 36 numbers correctly. Mail that piece of paper in with 5 bucks to your local state education board, who will pick a name from the correct answers out of a hat.
Problem solved.
yet some school districts (or even individual HSs within questionable districts, eg lincoln in SF) have maintained decent scores a
The purpose of education isn't achieving scores.
You're confusing education with training.
When I was 18, one could gamble @ the race track, or a casino in Nevada, and that was about it. Look how far we've come since then...
Rich districts still garner more income; but some of it is redistributed, and that caused a lot of anger when it started back in the '70s.
Also, some of the well-to-do schools in well-to-do districts now ask for "suggested" donations from parents for children to fund various programs -- music, art, special aides for this or that. This can range from a few hundred to a few thousand (for a charter high school about two blocks from me.) And you can bet there's a lot of pressure to take the 'suggestion."
About UC, I'll say what I've said before; as state budget contributions have dropped over the past decade, tuitions have risen and programs have been cut. At least they finally got around to clearing out UCOP.
Also, my friends in Registration tell me that new " bridge" classes (aka remedial reading, math, and analytical skills classes) are on the schedule this year for the privileged generation who are exquisitely skilled in passing AP classes and entrance exams -- and in nothing else. New expenses...
@Bob & Rob, "Quality education in California died November 1978. It's been inertia since then. And no, not Prop 13 that also passed coincidentally that same month. Rather, that was when the CA Supreme Court determined that funding local schools with local taxes was discriminatory..."
Yeah, it has been a huge problem. In areas like the SF Peninsula, our solution has been to support our public schools with private money (our own). The result is what I call "semi-private" schools that still provide quality education. Of course, the poorer districts are SOL...
I see that my comment is late to the fray, but, perhaps I can help with the question as to what EXHTRATE signifies. The des page says,"The exhaustion rate is the rate at which people who started collecting unemployment insurance benefits have used up their allotted payments before finding a job."
For those without a Bloomberg, the chart looks like a rocket launch, with the current number (which I assume is a percentage) at 47.06 To put that # in perspective, in January of '08, it was at 35%.
Monday Monday, can't trust that day,
Monday Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way
Oh Monday morning, you gave me no warning of what was to be
Have a Great Depression!
Energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 2:21 pm
RD, If the bond market starts to blow, will we get Bernanke doing his best Black Knight (ht Holy Grail)?
When the bond market overflows its banks I expect a two stage process. First denial/backroom/CalvinFed. That won't work. Second capitulation and promises of a healthy catharsis. That won't work either but it is too soon to predict beyond.
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 2:24 pm
I'd argue that the UCs were doing reasonably well in their pledge to provide cheap quality higher education until the past few years, when 'fees' began to climb into the high five-digits. but those days are emphatically gone now, of course. personally, i choose to demonize boomer admins making 300K+, though the causes are many and varied.
Having shelled out an Acura to UCLA for school year 08-09 and facing paying for a Lexus for 09-10 I'd agree.
2 dc trains collide
"Nobel Economist Phelps says it may take 15 years for the US to recover lost wealth"
~~~~
We will never recover this "lost" wealth in real terms ... We have seen the peak of credit ...
Natural resources and the environment will conspire to constrain growth through
peak oil, peak water and climate change ...
I, for one, see this crash not as lost wealth but as a speculative bubble masquerading as wealth ...
Of course the crash will take with it real wealth as corrections always swing too far ...
The dc crowd always has their loco motives for doing things in such a fashion...
Char,
What market are you in? I'm a long-time Texas lawyer.
For the record. I am in one of those semi-private public schools for K-8 and still have one in that program. We get the 2nd lowest tier of State funding because we don't have enough minorities or poor students. The rest is made up with supplemental funding sources. Still, all funding considered it totals far less than the districts that get extra funds from the State because they have poor performance or the "right" colored children.
I think more than a few folks are starting to come around to my take on recent events in terms of the generational impact of the boomers.
clinton - brilliant but amoral and supremely narcissistic
w - boomer narcissism and anti-intellectualism taken to a buddha/christ-like extreme
bho - the classic late boomer, an intellectual empty vessel, the softest of putty in the hands of earlier boomers and their WS masters
i sense an opportunity for lawyers specializing in 1031 exchanges and BK. Ride the bubble up and back down.
More borrowing ? Why should we borrow our own money ?
We are going to have a severe oversupply of Gov notes and bonds as it is.
The only way out of our conundrum is debt free money, Lincoln's "Greenbacks".
We underwrite this debt free credit with higher taxes on high income, capital gains, dividends and estates. Further tax increases should be a phased in carbon tax and taxes on sweeteners, carbonation, salt and tran fats while instituting an FTT or Tobin Tax on financial transactions ...
We can not solve our $50 trillion aggregate debt problem and our looming social program expansion with more debt ... The key is to cycle debt free money through the system then squeezing it out again from those that can afford to pay.
Remember what caused the problem, income and wealth disparity? You can't solve that by lowering taxes. And you can't get the economy moving again by throwing money at the banks and the rich ... We need debt free money ...
""Nobel Economist Phelps says it may take 15 years for the US to recover lost wealth" "
the question is, was all of that "lost" wealth real in the first place? No pun intended, I have a huge respect to any economist who is capable of wining 8 gold medals in one Olympicz. : )
too much of the exitement.. is rather bad for making rational investment decisions; yes we canz!!!
yes- but then Krugman goes on to prescribe a set of policies that might work if he had a cyclical downturn. If his professional economics work is similar to the quality of his analysis we are really screwed considering that he got Nobel Prize for it.
Case in point t-his argument that the US ran total debt in excess of 100% of GDP during the war therefore it can run it again. I think if one of his undergraduate students made that observation he would/should fail them for failing to acknowledge that the important part of the war debt was not its size but the fact that government paid it all down . Does anybody believe that is what is going to happen this time around.
Plus there is the obvious other point- American consumers had nothing to spend money on during the war and so financing the governments debt was a lot easier.
one train is on top of the other in D.C. metro doing the locomotion
Guns & Sputter economy
Not to worry...the swine flu will strike down the populace by at least 25%. Since it's the young and elderly...we will save a bundle on health care and Social Security costs. The rest can breed like rabbits and repopulate. Problem solved...Have a nice Depression!
10%? BO is just trying to get in front of the obvious as his poll numbers start to head south (along with his credibility).
the US ran total debt in excess of 100% of GDP during the war therefore it can run it again
WWII was about shared sacrifice against a common enemy; now, it's about the death throes of a kleptocracy. Behaviorally, I think there might be some important differences.
Weird double-post...
Well that's one of the interesting things of living on The Peninsula. Tons of poorer Somoans and Mexican families on the lowlands and well to do Whites and Asians in the hills. The result is pretty diverse high schools with good test results and the affluent kids all moving away and the poor kids going south or east by about 150 miles.
It also causes you to scoff whenever someone mentions the "diversity of the northwest" when 75% of people are white.
"Further tax increases should be a phased in carbon tax and taxes on sweeteners, carbonation, salt and tran fats while instituting an FTT or Tobin Tax on financial transactions ..."
That can't be a serious suggestion without including high-fructose corn syrup and eliminating the gov't farm subsidies that make it affordable.
"10%? BO is just trying to get in front of the obvious as his poll numbers start to head south (along with his credibility).
~~~~
BO will hit lows next year as the economy shrinks and shrinks ...
People know the score ...
Trillions for banksters ... bupkis for people ...
Channeling Dr. Strangelove?
//Not to worry...the swine flu will strike down the populace by at least 25%. Since it's the young and elderly...we will save a bundle on health care and Social Security costs. The rest can breed like rabbits and repopulate. Problem solved...Have a nice Depression!//
10% is a joke statement. U6 is already over 16% per the pretty gov numbers. Then factor in those fallen off the rolls with no jobs, small business owner and independent contractors that are ineligable. Way over 20% already.
Maybe they can decide to re-evaluate how they come up with the numbers - again.
josap,
Shhh!! People do not like non-optimistic people.
//10% is a joke statement. U6 is already over 16% per the pretty gov numbers. //
From what I have read about the flu, older people are somewhat immune due to being exposed to flu in the 70s. Some sort of common strain. It is the younger mid 20s and 30s that get sickest from our current flu.
Brian in New Orleans
"Further tax increases should be a phased in carbon tax and taxes on sweeteners, carbonation, salt and tran fats while instituting an FTT or Tobin Tax on financial transactions ..."
That can't be a serious suggestion without including high-fructose corn syrup and eliminating the gov't farm subsidies that make it affordable.
~~~~
I didn't say it would happen, most of my suggestions are food for thought ...
As the situation gets dire real solutions just might have a chance ...
If the truth were being reported we'd be having riots in the streets. And meanwhile the top
execs in banks and brokerages that caused such a mess are STILL employed and making
millions while laying off THOUSANDS of people that actually do work. If you know anyone in
banking that's still employed, odds are they are doing the work of three people so the top
execs can show 'savings' and continue collecting mega-incomes.
good articles: Financial Opinions Updated Daily iamned.com
the younger mid 20s and 30s that get sickest from our current flu
Another green shoot!
"WWII was about shared sacrifice against a common enemy; now, it's about the death throes of a kleptocracy. Behaviorally, I think there might be some important differences."
Well, before that we had a decade of cleaning up after the last kleptocracy. Then we had a war. No inherent reason that can't repeat, but I'd rather skip the war.
"If the truth were being reported we'd be having riots in the streets. "
~~~~
Yup ...
but I'd rather skip the war.
~~~~~
We have two wars ongoing ....
a failed war and a soon to fail war ...
trillions down the drain ...
"From what I have read about the flu, older people are somewhat immune due to being exposed to flu in the 70s. Some sort of common strain. It is the younger mid 20s and 30s that get sickest from our current flu."
Swine flu; it was a big scare in the mid-70s, didn't amount to much. Didn't turn killer.
Since the new flu has a swine component, I'd bet that's why 40-somethings and above weren't as affected. Though I finally just lost the cough from a head/chest/stomach bug that worked me over for most of six weeks, and I'll always wonder if I had "it."
"We have two wars ongoing ...."
the BIG war...
How many people do each of us know who has lost a job, who has been out of work for over a year, who has taken a wage or hour cut?
Just a survey amoung ourselves may show a good idea of the numbers.
Unemployed: 7
Over a year: 2
Pay cut: 4
Hours cut: 2
Those are the people I know fairly well and for several years.
Resource war?
My vote for cost-effectiveness would be to invade Venezuela.
". Then we had a war"
not sure about that - I'd argue that WW2 began with the invasion of Manchuria in '31 and ended with the KMT evacuation of the mainland in late '49.
Bob Dobbs
"We have two wars ongoing ...."
the BIG war...
~~~~
It would have to be quick ...
We are broke and have out sourced our industrial capacity ...
Our military readiness in shambles ...
Other countries will not be financing any more of our preemptive catastrophes ...
How can we effectively have a war? China is buying Hummer. Our auto plants can't seem to retool to save their lives. Do we order our equipment from China or India or Brazil?
"not sure about that - I'd argue that WW2 began with the invasion of Manchuria in '31 and ended with the KMT evacuation of the mainland in late '49."
Well, if you want to go that far, you can simply argue that WW I never ended; just adjourned for a while and came back as WWII/Europe. But in terms of substantiveU.S. involvement, my recollection is that didn't start until after '39, when we started to become the "arsenal of democracy" for our Euro allies.
The big difference between WW2 and our latest ongoing efforts?
All sides wore identifiable uniforms in WW2, while in Afghanistan and Iraq present-day, only we are required to be identified in such a fashion...
Is there any index which tracks the price of pot and other such consumables?
Is there a futures market for same?
If so what is the benchmark smoke?
"that parents of special-education students may seek government reimbursement for private school tuition, even if they have never received special-education services in public school."
More ways for parents to scam money...find a compliant shrink or psychologist, get a diagnosis of attention deficit disorder, and bill your neighbors for private school tuition.
Seriously, as a renter, I just watch the reasons never to buy pile up.
He means 10% OFFICIAL unemployment, this is the modified figure that excludes the following people
Clearly the administration is living in some kind of alternate reality as there is no way to get unemployment down that quickly.
Unless we adopt some old USSR/East German employment schemes of having the govt. subsides thousands of make-work jobs. I guess those would be the 'green jobs'.
Josap:
Unemployed: 10 (mostly laid-off co-workers who haven't found work yet)
Over a year: 1
Pay cut: in a month or so, 50 -- all co-workers
Hours cut: again in a month or so, 53 (including the same fifty from above.
A fairly standard issue 2-income family with a couple of kids only needs lose 1 of those jobs to start the downward spiral into poverty...
American involvement in WW2 was strictly as a sideshow act. There wasn't a single yankee within hundreds of miles of Kursk when it happened, to my knowledge, nor did we have a single pair of boots on the ground in mainland China.
I'd argue that the final gasp of the Ottoman/Hapsburg axis WAS substantively different than the Japanese/Euro-Fascist axis, though it isn't hard to draw a line in terms of grievances and causality.
Unless we adopt some old USSR/East German employment schemes of having the govt. subsides thousands of make-work jobs. I guess those would be the 'green jobs'.
Click here to refresh
I'm thinking shovel ready...
"Seriously, as a renter, I just watch the reasons never to buy pile up. "
yup, that was my point. this is a HUGE blow to the RRE market in a way which may escape most.
There are 6 million Special Ed students...this just opened the floodgates for free private education on the property owner's dime...no prior attendance or diagnosis of learning disabilities required. Man, anyone who owns residential real estate continues to be a sitting duck.
"In its appeal, the Forest Grove School District said students should be forced to at least give public special education programs a try before seeking reimbursement for private tuition. If not, parents would bypass public schools and go directly to private school — and then ask for reimbursement from school systems already burdened by ever-increasing costs."
From the U.S. Department of Education. Just under 67,000 pupils were in private placements in 2007 — just 1.1 percent of the country's nearly 6 million special education students.
his argument that the US ran total debt in excess of 100% of GDP during the war
Krugman conveniently forgets that we had almost hale a million prime-of-their-lives men out of the job market and into war uniforms. Half of them dies, the other half came back to the same job market and we had to reassign many of the Rose Riverters into school teaching (by extending the number of years of compulsory education.. which also kept young 'uns out of the job market al ittle longer to the returning GI's could be absorbed into the job market ) or into the new concept of "housewife", and still had to create low-cost loans via the GI Bill.
FDR's chewing-gum-and-bailing-wire fixes lasted a long time, but there were not (and should never have been considered as) long-term solutions.
Krugman is the ultimate can-kicker. Time for his can to be kicked.
josap asked: "How many people do each of us know who has lost a job, who has been out of work for over a year, who has taken a wage or hour cut?
Just a survey among ourselves may show a good idea of the numbers...."
Not a single one, and I'm in a state that just recently broke its own record for unemployment, a level that rivals that of California. There is no one among family, friends or acquaintances that I have, either here or in other states, that has lost a job, or had their hours/pay cut back.
The only thing I can figure is that I'm not in the demographic (for lack of a better description) of the people losing their jobs. Our local housing market also continues to hold up far better than elsewhere, despite the high unemployment.
Sebastian
Hack,
you must be joking...you've never heard of the Flying Tigers...
Commanded by Clare Chenault of Louisiana, the Flying Tigers were a bunch of hard-drinking airmen who became known as some of the bravest pilots to fly during World War II. In 1937, Chenault, a retired U.S. Army captain, was hired as an advisor to the fledgling Chinese Air Force. He began to lay the groundwork for the American Volunteer Group by having runways built and ordering planes from U.S. manufacturer Curtiss-Wright.
The first contingent of American Volunteer Group pilots left San Francisco on July 10, 1941, aboard the Dutch ship Jaegersfontaine. Just before leaving, Chennault received confirmation of Presidential approval for the second American Volunteer Group of bombers with a schedule of 100 pilots and 181 gunners and radio men to arrive in China by November, 1941, and an equal number to follow in January, 1942.
Overall, the Flying Tigers were undefeated against the Japanese Air Force in more than 50 air battles.
After the American Volunteer Group was disbanded on July 4, 1942, the China Air Task Force of the United States Army Air Forces, commanded by General Chennault, officially took over air operations in China. In early March, 1943, the 14th Air Force was activated under the command of Chennault and replaced the China Air Task Force. Chennault remained in command of the 14th Air Force until the end of July, 1945. General Chennault formally retired from the military for the second time in October, 1945.
The Flying Tigers: American combat aviators in China during World War II | Suite101.com
Americans are already "shovel ready". We have been shoveling OUT all the shit the Gov't has been shoveling IN through the MSM for decades and especially since "the one" took office. Change I can see.....POVERTY for the masses.
Money Man (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 5:36 pm
Americans are already "shovel ready". We have been shoveling OUT all the shit the Gov't has been shoveling IN through the MSM for decades and especially since "the one" took office. Change I can see.....POVERTY for the masses.
Of course it won't be called by that name. The need to sacrifice for the common good, the 'greed' or irresponsibility of "us all", and a few more figurehead prosecutions and perp walks will sufficiently allay the masses' desire for justice/revenge/reparations as BHO encourages us all to take one for the team. Meanwhile society quietly restructures around the financial megaliths we know all too well, and we end up with a rigid two class structure composed of those with generational levels of wealth and everybody else from the working poor to the working rich, which is vampirized by an ever-growing tax-exempt bureaucrat class until there is nothing left to extract.
these guys are brilliant. What astute prognosticators to predict U3 going to 10!!Even with the bogus b/d model, we're already at 9.6. Brilliant, I tell ya.
yet some school districts (or even individual HSs within questionable districts, eg lincoln in SF) have maintained decent scores a
Perhaps you got Lincoln confused with Lowell?
When the arty ex-pat Austrian strongman leader closes down 200+ state parks, there's going to be an awful strain on the few National Parks in California to absorb all the people, like a tourist funnel.
<
p>Didn't we just get some new legislation that those strained tourists can now bring in concealed weapons?
"what happens the capital already allocated in employee health funds (e.g. GM VEBA, CalPERS, etc)?"
Darn good question.
And we'll see S&P400 when those zany North Koreans nuke Tokyo.
Hell, I bet a good solid hurricane will knock this market off kilter.
Hackman: I am in Houston.
Thanks for all the suggestions, I have considered bankruptcy practice but I know several attorneys who say the Fed Bankruptcy court in Houston has a tendency to grind cases to a halt, so there isn't much work.
If I want to be an accountant, do I, like, have to be good at math and stuff?