CR - Is there a work-around for the problems with your site? I get a page load error more often than I connect. (Maybe 65/35 over the past couple of days)
Can we attack the foreclosure tracking problem by crowd-sourcing? I assume that they have to be legally posted or advertised somewhere, and we do have a lot of eyeballs here.
The problem is with the redirect from the old blogspot address. Thousand of sites are impacted.
At least you are getting a warning. Safari and Internet explorer users (using the blogspot address) have been told for a week that the blog no longer exists.
@ CR - did that - doesn't make a difference. Or typing it in, or using Firefox/IE. Tried it via google search.
It worked fifteen minutes ago, but not earlier, then gone again after the new post. It's very hit/miss, but if others are having similar issues, you must be losing a lot of traffic.
Foreclosure filings are public records, shouldn't be too hard to count. Not really sure what the numbers would prove, given that banks like WFC change their policies "midstream" to create the proper reserve ratio or States might just not allow any for a while.
con dao: it's been a while since i've seen it, but wasn't "The Sea Inside" significantly driven by the telephone conversations by javier bardem's quadriplegic character and his lawyer?
i check the local paper for foreclosures,we got 21 going to the courthouse steps 1st tues in july.
live in south central ga,below macon,(which according in atlanta is the end of the state except on the coast)
Some economists believe it’s time for the federal government to produce its own foreclosure statistics. And experts say many are kicking around ways to make that happen.
Accurate FC data would be antithetical to the usual reasons behind government datums. Ref. "M3." The big problem with consistent and timely data would be the ability to track two of the biggest secrets in this ongoing disaster; the number of bank loan foreclosures and the number of bank loan foreclosures that have been formally transfered to bank (or assignee) ownership. I'll call the first backlog and the second shadow inventory. In employment terms; F-3 and F-6. It would also make it far too easy to rate the effectiveness of government intervention programs by exposing the true cure rates.
Add the stats about folks drawing down 401(k) money for living expenses or trying to keep the house and and you just have to wonder if there is the retail bagholder population necessary to keep the game of musical chairs going...
Employers cutting back 401(k) plans
April 20, 2009.REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A quarter of U.S. employers have eliminated matching contributions to employee 401(k) retirement plans since September to save money amid the economy's downturn, according to research released on Monday.
A quarter of U.S. employers also have instituted limited enrollment rather than open the savings plans to all employees, according to the study conducted for Charles Schwab Corp. by CFO Research Services. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Hey, I have an idea. Maybe the Federal govt can get involved in funding and securitizing the underlying mortgages. That way we'd have a responsible agency with their finger on the moment by moment performance of the underlying assets and the securitized instruments. Then, when ever we wonder about any individual or group of mortgages we can just go on their website and search by criteria.
Of course this would only work if this mortgage agency, or two agencies while we are talking theoretically could be expected to publish reliable data if they eventually grew to be substantial lenders of ultimate resort and they were subject to the new Administration's promises of access and transparency.
"The big problem with consistent and timely data would be the ability to track two of the biggest secrets in this ongoing disaster; the number of bank loan foreclosures and the number of bank loan foreclosures that have been formally transfered to bank (or assignee) ownership. I'll call the first backlog and the second shadow inventory. "
I'm finding that if 75% would rather cheat or get fat than play fair or produce value, it's not easy to sell a proper currency.
One of the interesting thing learned from this whole bubble is how blind we really are. Very few stats seem to really show what the purport to show; many are goosed or fudged to produce 'predictable' results. In addition, very few people seem to be able to read them and understand any meaning.
It is worse than an airplane flying without good instruments - more like not even knowing if a freight train is on the track or off.
wally,
Take that one step further......what is the purpose for stats in the first place? Seems to me they have always been a tool of convenience. A way to convince someone who is undecided with a number derived from a method that very few understand. Stats have always been meaningless to me. Just another method of control.
"A quarter of U.S. employers have eliminated matching contributions to employee 401(k) retirement plans since September to save money amid the economy's downturn, according to research released on Monday." reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A quarter of U.S. employers have eliminated matching contributions to employee 401(K) retirement plans since September to save money amid the economy's downturn, according to research released on Monday.
A quarter of U.S. employers also have instituted limited enrollment rather than open the savings plans to all employees, according to the study conducted for Charles Schwab Corp. by CFO Research Services.
Burnside Thanks for the link. I am sure that the FED is funneling money through these guys for "market stabilization activities". Didn't really believe the PPT thing until this year.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 6:52 am
On housing the only numbers that matter to me are the case-shiller YOY statistics. Too much noise in the other numbers but I can see the frustration .
Anyone buying gold today? short some CAKE today
Careful there. C-SI is still an "index." That means it is a derived number and subject to assteriks running several pages. CSI throws out not arms length transactions. IMO they've been clipping legitimate but dramatically lower prices with this method. They also don't have a mechanism for improvements. Inflation is a problem with all long time series not just CS. In short listen to that great mathematician of the 1980s and "Trust but verify."
This foreclosure data has me thinking - do residential ABS traders ever see the physical addresses of the properties you are trading? I'm (mostly) sure it is in the REMIC reports, but are there 3rd party data vendors that track this & stay updated with servicers? In commercial ABS Trepp and Realpoint do this, but have heard this doesn't really exist for resi. Do you have any way to audit negative pre-payments or workouts, or any way to use property level automated valuation models for a mark to market??
OT/ and laggard, thanks for help on the last thread... the Eyes of Marina G. found it herself (this Orson Welles manque failed to live up to his billing!) it was 'Denise Calls Up' 1995 or Ciao Denise in Italia.
.....
for anyone interested in seeing some great shots of Angkor Wat see the newest National Geographic...
...
...Angkor is the scene of one of the greatest vanishing acts of all time. The Khmer kingdom lasted from the ninth to the 15th centuries, and at its height dominated a wide swath of Southeast Asia, from Myanmar (Burma) in the west to Vietnam in the east. As many as 750,000 people lived in Angkor, its capital, which sprawled across an area the size of New York City's five boroughs, making it the most extensive urban complex of the preindustrial world. By the late 16th century, when Portuguese missionaries came upon the lotus-shaped towers of Angkor Wat—the most elaborate of the city's temples and the world's largest religious monument—the once resplendent capital of the empire was in its death throes.
Scholars have come up with a long list of suspected causes, including rapacious invaders, a religious change of heart, and a shift to maritime trade that condemned an inland city. It's mostly guesswork: Roughly 1,300 inscriptions survive on temple doorjambs and freestanding stelae, but the people of Angkor left not a single word explaining their kingdom's collapse.
....
Recent excavations, not of the temples but of the infrastructure that made the vast city possible, are converging on a new answer. Angkor, it appears, was doomed by the very ingenuity that transformed a collection of minor fiefdoms into an empire. The civilization learned how to tame Southeast Asia's seasonal deluges, then faded as its control of water, the most vital of resources, slipped away.
...
is this what they are going to say about us and the creation of the fractional banking system one day? Angkor — National Geographic Magazine
...
(on a side note Nat Geo implies a false implication in a photo of a wedding ritual showing the bride washing the feet of her soon to be husband.
what she is doing is getting her mind right, to make it as cool as the water she pours on his feet, to be chilled and balanced and a mind rid of anger towards the groom or family or anyone at that moment...
it's nice to have such lovely Khmer women here at the duke's version of the Brown Derby set National Geographic's mind right... silly white men, tricks are for kids!
With consumer deleveraging and credit crunch - we cannot have any quick recovery - L is best case scenario. Speculative stock buying and PPT euphoria is no substitute for anything.
Credit is falling so much - private credit decreased by $1.8 Trillion is the first quarter, consumer credit by $90.7 billion (annualized). Household net worth down by $13.87 trillion.
There is no trigger for recovery - new technology, new markets, demographics, new ideas. Green is just a boondoggle and BRICs can only do so much. JPM and GS etc are just trying to create another bubble - it suits their ends not yours.
Would the FedGov's "foreclosure report" be any more believable than any other report?
CR - Is there a work-around for the problems with your site? I get a page load error more often than I connect. (Maybe 65/35 over the past couple of days)
Can we attack the foreclosure tracking problem by crowd-sourcing? I assume that they have to be legally posted or advertised somewhere, and we do have a lot of eyeballs here.
Treasury-Altered Reality Plan,
Bookmark http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
That will fix the problem.
The problem is with the redirect from the old blogspot address. Thousand of sites are impacted.
At least you are getting a warning. Safari and Internet explorer users (using the blogspot address) have been told for a week that the blog no longer exists.
Google promises to fix the problem every day ...
best wishes
Yes, there should be a foreclosure number reporting czar.
Just want to send another
THANK YOU to CR for keeping this blog up and running.
THANK YOU!
@ CR - did that - doesn't make a difference. Or typing it in, or using Firefox/IE. Tried it via google search.
It worked fifteen minutes ago, but not earlier, then gone again after the new post. It's very hit/miss, but if others are having similar issues, you must be losing a lot of traffic.
Foreclosure filings are public records, shouldn't be too hard to count. Not really sure what the numbers would prove, given that banks like WFC change their policies "midstream" to create the proper reserve ratio or States might just not allow any for a while.
CR - I'm getting a redirect screen for both Firefox and Safari 4. Maybe it's fixed? I haven't had any trouble with the Calculated Risk
address.
con dao: it's been a while since i've seen it, but wasn't "The Sea Inside" significantly driven by the telephone conversations by javier bardem's quadriplegic character and his lawyer?
i check the local paper for foreclosures,we got 21 going to the courthouse steps 1st tues in july.
live in south central ga,below macon,(which according in atlanta is the end of the state except on the coast)
Some economists believe it’s time for the federal government to produce its own foreclosure statistics. And experts say many are kicking around ways to make that happen.
Accurate FC data would be antithetical to the usual reasons behind government datums. Ref. "M3." The big problem with consistent and timely data would be the ability to track two of the biggest secrets in this ongoing disaster; the number of bank loan foreclosures and the number of bank loan foreclosures that have been formally transfered to bank (or assignee) ownership. I'll call the first backlog and the second shadow inventory. In employment terms; F-3 and F-6. It would also make it far too easy to rate the effectiveness of government intervention programs by exposing the true cure rates.
dr munch (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 6:07 am
Yes, there should be a foreclosure number reporting czar.
And corresponding oversight committee with no authority.
Add the stats about folks drawing down 401(k) money for living expenses or trying to keep the house and and you just have to wonder if there is the retail bagholder population necessary to keep the game of musical chairs going...
Employers cutting back 401(k) plans
April 20, 2009.REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A quarter of U.S. employers have eliminated matching contributions to employee 401(k) retirement plans since September to save money amid the economy's downturn, according to research released on Monday.
A quarter of U.S. employers also have instituted limited enrollment rather than open the savings plans to all employees, according to the study conducted for Charles Schwab Corp. by CFO Research Services.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Hey, I have an idea. Maybe the Federal govt can get involved in funding and securitizing the underlying mortgages. That way we'd have a responsible agency with their finger on the moment by moment performance of the underlying assets and the securitized instruments. Then, when ever we wonder about any individual or group of mortgages we can just go on their website and search by criteria.
Of course this would only work if this mortgage agency, or two agencies while we are talking theoretically could be expected to publish reliable data if they eventually grew to be substantial lenders of ultimate resort and they were subject to the new Administration's promises of access and transparency.
Great day for Gold and Silver physical purchases, take it as an opportunity knock.
Transports tell the story of the tape this morning especially with oil at $68. The green shoots got doused with gasoline. No crops for you.
"The big problem with consistent and timely data would be the ability to track two of the biggest secrets in this ongoing disaster; the number of bank loan foreclosures and the number of bank loan foreclosures that have been formally transfered to bank (or assignee) ownership. I'll call the first backlog and the second shadow inventory. "
I'm finding that if 75% would rather cheat or get fat than play fair or produce value, it's not easy to sell a proper currency.
One of the interesting thing learned from this whole bubble is how blind we really are. Very few stats seem to really show what the purport to show; many are goosed or fudged to produce 'predictable' results. In addition, very few people seem to be able to read them and understand any meaning.
It is worse than an airplane flying without good instruments - more like not even knowing if a freight train is on the track or off.
someone is selling today..... maybe this is that next leg down that everyone on MSM has been talking about for the last month plus...
wally,
Take that one step further......what is the purpose for stats in the first place? Seems to me they have always been a tool of convenience. A way to convince someone who is undecided with a number derived from a method that very few understand. Stats have always been meaningless to me. Just another method of control.
Employers cutting back 401(k) plans
"A quarter of U.S. employers have eliminated matching contributions to employee 401(k) retirement plans since September to save money amid the economy's downturn, according to research released on Monday." reuters
Dow Transports YTD down about 10%. Much weaker than the Dow Industrials, and its been a flashing signal on the massive rally since March.
iceman +1
I've been saying this for over month. The transports taking a disproportional amount of damage. been short UPS and FEDex. covered half last week.
PPT at Bethpage this morning. We should have a winner well before close. Plenty of time to make it back for the last hour blast-off.
Employers cutting back 401(K) plans
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A quarter of U.S. employers have eliminated matching contributions to employee 401(K) retirement plans since September to save money amid the economy's downturn, according to research released on Monday.
A quarter of U.S. employers also have instituted limited enrollment rather than open the savings plans to all employees, according to the study conducted for Charles Schwab Corp. by CFO Research Services.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"more like not even knowing if a freight train is on the track or off. "
Even if you knew that, you would still need to know whether the damage would be worse if the train didn't derail.
Who wants more foreclosures, who wants fewer? Show your hand...
On housing the only numbers that matter to me are the case-shiller YOY statistics. Too much noise in the other numbers but I can see the frustration .
Anyone buying gold today? short some CAKE today
@yogi - I want more foreclosures - just not in my town.
TARP
NIMBY?
Per Tyler D, PPT=JPM.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/SjfgGqKeR_I/AAAAAAAADZM/q6ABkRmrp1o/s1600-h/SPY+IOIA+6.16.09.jpg
This one shows the mid-afternoon breakout for once rejected by the market. More typical, however, is:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/SjKkiU_jOEI/AAAAAAAADQ8/lagQRCzB2HI/s1600-h/SPY+IOIA+6.12.09+-2.jpg
Burnside Thanks for the link. I am sure that the FED is funneling money through these guys for "market stabilization activities". Didn't really believe the PPT thing until this year.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/22/2009 - 6:52 am
On housing the only numbers that matter to me are the case-shiller YOY statistics. Too much noise in the other numbers but I can see the frustration .
Anyone buying gold today? short some CAKE today
Careful there. C-SI is still an "index." That means it is a derived number and subject to assteriks running several pages. CSI throws out not arms length transactions. IMO they've been clipping legitimate but dramatically lower prices with this method. They also don't have a mechanism for improvements. Inflation is a problem with all long time series not just CS. In short listen to that great mathematician of the 1980s and "Trust but verify."
This foreclosure data has me thinking - do residential ABS traders ever see the physical addresses of the properties you are trading? I'm (mostly) sure it is in the REMIC reports, but are there 3rd party data vendors that track this & stay updated with servicers? In commercial ABS Trepp and Realpoint do this, but have heard this doesn't really exist for resi. Do you have any way to audit negative pre-payments or workouts, or any way to use property level automated valuation models for a mark to market??
OT/ and laggard, thanks for help on the last thread... the Eyes of Marina G. found it herself (this Orson Welles manque failed to live up to his billing!) it was 'Denise Calls Up' 1995 or Ciao Denise in Italia.
.....
for anyone interested in seeing some great shots of Angkor Wat see the newest National Geographic...
...
...Angkor is the scene of one of the greatest vanishing acts of all time. The Khmer kingdom lasted from the ninth to the 15th centuries, and at its height dominated a wide swath of Southeast Asia, from Myanmar (Burma) in the west to Vietnam in the east. As many as 750,000 people lived in Angkor, its capital, which sprawled across an area the size of New York City's five boroughs, making it the most extensive urban complex of the preindustrial world. By the late 16th century, when Portuguese missionaries came upon the lotus-shaped towers of Angkor Wat—the most elaborate of the city's temples and the world's largest religious monument—the once resplendent capital of the empire was in its death throes.
Scholars have come up with a long list of suspected causes, including rapacious invaders, a religious change of heart, and a shift to maritime trade that condemned an inland city. It's mostly guesswork: Roughly 1,300 inscriptions survive on temple doorjambs and freestanding stelae, but the people of Angkor left not a single word explaining their kingdom's collapse.
....
Recent excavations, not of the temples but of the infrastructure that made the vast city possible, are converging on a new answer. Angkor, it appears, was doomed by the very ingenuity that transformed a collection of minor fiefdoms into an empire. The civilization learned how to tame Southeast Asia's seasonal deluges, then faded as its control of water, the most vital of resources, slipped away.
...
is this what they are going to say about us and the creation of the fractional banking system one day?
Angkor — National Geographic Magazine
...
(on a side note Nat Geo implies a false implication in a photo of a wedding ritual showing the bride washing the feet of her soon to be husband.
what she is doing is getting her mind right, to make it as cool as the water she pours on his feet, to be chilled and balanced and a mind rid of anger towards the groom or family or anyone at that moment...
it's nice to have such lovely Khmer women here at the duke's version of the Brown Derby set National Geographic's mind right... silly white men, tricks are for kids!
I'm a dead thread head.
But I have questioned on this very blog numerous times whether or not RealtyTrac's #s can be trusted. They never added up to me.
With consumer deleveraging and credit crunch - we cannot have any quick recovery - L is best case scenario. Speculative stock buying and PPT euphoria is no substitute for anything.
Credit is falling so much - private credit decreased by $1.8 Trillion is the first quarter, consumer credit by $90.7 billion (annualized). Household net worth down by $13.87 trillion.
There is no trigger for recovery - new technology, new markets, demographics, new ideas. Green is just a boondoggle and BRICs can only do so much. JPM and GS etc are just trying to create another bubble - it suits their ends not yours.
good articles: Financial Opinions Updated Daily iamned.com