LA, NY, San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, Detroit: Real Prices and the Unemployment Rate
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sun, 06/21/2009 - 4:16pm (203 comments)
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Finally?
C
In the old days unemployment affected savings necessary to accumulate a down payment. People had to be re-employed long enough to pay off debts, replenish savings and come p with a down payment. Things are different this time.
CR,
Any chance you could chart San Diego? It would be food for thought over at BubbleInfo, plus San Diego was the forerunner of this latest bubble anyway (and therefore an especially interesting case).
Things are different this time.
You can't leave it at that.
Crikey. The near-vertical lines in LA & SF are similar to those in Detroit. Think I'm getting a nose bleed...
Detroit looks like an anvil going through a floor
Prices of homes above 700k in SF have not moved. People have been taking them off market if they are not getting the price that they want.
About retail investors. They don't have a lot of money thats why we are flat to down over the last few weeks.
TJ and The Bear, Unfortunately Freddie Mac doesn't have the same series for San Diego. They have their regular series, but that isn't as good (IMO) as this purchase series.
I think LA is close, but I'll see what I can do. I agree the bubble started in San Diego -and may end first there too.
best wishes
Started in San Diego or Sacramento?
CR: Wow, thanks.
BTW, The May DQ numbers for LACo and Venco are in the LATimes today.
In Santa Monica, only 20 SFhs and and 38 condos sold city-wide. Those numbers are too small for the medians to be meaningful.
Someone bought a condo in 90402 for $5.1 million, so the median price for condos in that zip was up 380% YOY.
It was the one and only condo transaction in that zip.
I agree it started in San Diego 1998 approx. Family member owned property down there.
Was just taking a look around Piedmont and Montclair housing this afternoon.
Redfin
This house was purchased for 1.2M 6 years ago and owners put 600k in renovations into it.
Piedmont address and Piedmont school district.
Built in 1934, 4500 sq feet on a 10500 sq foot lot. Full Bay Views.
Asking price 2.2M. Two years ago this house would have easily sold for 3M.
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/21/2009 - 5:22 pm
Things are different this time.
You can't leave it at that.
Sure I can. I haven't figured out all the consequences so I'm not ready to pontificate. I'm expecting a new crop of chronically unemployed for one that is sure to change the math. Then there's the question everyone here loves to fight about; how long/deep deflation until the big inflation/debasement events. Then there's US National Bank. If we go there then my time series for repairing personal balance sheets before buying a house is moot.
Based on the LA chart, I may not have been pessimistic enough when I predicted inflation-adjusted 1997 price levels as the bottom.
RD
Throw in higher taxes on property non-food goods on top of it all. It is different this time IMO a mix of the UKin the 20's, USA in the 30's and Japan in the 90's
Zack, if you are out there, the Keys are great.
They got less overbuilt because there's only one road out, and it was
feared what would happen in a hurricane evacuation. Actually, 10
years ago, the Keys couldn't be evacuated entirely.
Permits were limited so prices went up. I haven't heard recently if that
continued, or was gotten around by developers. At any rate, I
haven't heard any Keys foreclosure horror stories.
CR Real Prices and the Unemployment Rate is a nice meme of sobering reality for America and Americans i.e. if they are paying close attention.
As you stated in a recent post CR states "It appears real house prices declined until the unemployment rate peaked, and then remained stagnant for a few years".
RRE still tanking, CRE getting crushed, continuing unemployment ( U6 around 20%), decreasing consumer spending should be enough 'Roundup' to keep those 'green shoots' from sprouting and the recession going strong !
IMO housing is likely in the shits until 2012 because unemployment ( U3 but especially U6 ) will continue to increase then only get marginally better probably at least for a few years.
Therefore most Americans had better start making gradual shift to a lower standard of living and I suggest most should also be recalibrating their American dream!
This time may be differant due to the gov handing out down payments instead of the banks. The only way out is to reinflate housing, thereby reinflating household wealth, thereby getting people to spend again.
Between the tax credit funds that you can use towards the down (by some type of pay it later loan from the lender) and stimu funds being used by cities to help people by REO properties (or buy properties themselves for low income housing) there will be more houses sold at a faster pace.
Not sure how far or how fast they can clean the dead wood. Or all the new owners with no skin in the game will turn right around and mail in the keys when they lose their jobs.
CR. What kind of inspirations do you get when you're standing on your head?
Well, that's cheery Tim.
Went out to a Father's Day dinner at a local Japanese steak house. Up to a year or so
ago the place was always jumping.
On Father's Day, there was hardly anybody there. When we left there was just one
couple seated. Waitstaff sitting around talking.
I can't see how they'll stay open much longer.
My restaurant anecdote of the day.
" It's harder to get a supply crunch that really drives up prices."
Thank god. I feel like a broken record.
Too many houses is better than too few.
Too much capacity is better than too little.
You motherfuckers and your profits. Deflation of house prices is a miracle.
"decreasing consumer spending should be enough 'Roundup' to keep those 'green shoots' from sprouting and the recession going strong !"
Do you mean that those green shoots weren't "Roundup-Ready"?
Oh, Nooooes!
One relationship shows up over and over in almost every graph.
Peak housing price occurs at the inflection point of an unemployment bottom.
And it looks like retracement to 1997 is the most optimistic case.
Seattle may retrace back to that mid-1990s plateau.
OT - it's always interesting to discover who is filtering your information & ponder their motives.
This article goaded me into running "California police federalized" on Google, Yahoo and MSN.
Google's result set is surprisingly sanitized, almost Orwellian in its lack of appropriate matches.
My son the police officer says they are going to be Federalized in a few weeks.
Hmmmm, Broward?
Did I miss something?
Now what I would really be interested in is plotting real housing prices using a constant CPI. Clinton changed the CPI cerca 92-93, so it doesn't necessarily give us a real idea as to how low real prices dropped in the mid-90s.
LIZ c'mon
U+Me= Grim and Grimmer
Based on the LA chart, I may not have been pessimistic enough when I predicted inflation-adjusted 1997 price levels as the bottom.
Yeah, the fundamentals tend to temper things a bit.
I'm not sure whether it's people's innate attachment to housing values, anchoring / recency bias, or what, but so many continue to believe that housing simply cannot drop very far. OTOH, I can't help but see how it has to.
I'm trying to organize my thoughts on the subject and do a lengthy comment at some point in the near future, but the basis of my argument is that we cannot expect to stop at inflation-adjusted pre-bubble levels without all else being equal... and things are far, far worse than they were just 10 short years ago.
Deflation of computer and electronic prices is a miracle.
I pray that Goog and MS go to zero.
I pray that solar and wind power become so cheap nobody makes a dime off the business.
Someone bought a condo in 90402 for $5.1 million, so the median price for condos in that zip was up 380% YOY.
It was the one and only condo transaction in that zip.
Just imagine the YOY drop next year.
JP-hahahahahahahahahahah.
DQNews reports on my canary:
Wrightwood 92397 9 $173k -54.0%yoy $129/sf
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/21/2009 - 5:38 pm
RD
Throw in higher taxes on property non-food goods on top of it all. It is different this time IMO a mix of Germany in the 20's, USA in the 30's and Japan in the 90's
The question is in what proportions. As to higher property taxes; IMO any attempt to stress solvent homeowners with higher costs of any kind to help out the insolvent will backfire.
Bro
I think those 1997 bottoms assumed that the banks were to be "dealt with" appropiratley. Now there is no end in sight if the zombie banks curtail "normal" loan activity
CR is marking the unemployment peaks.
Look at the unemployment bottoms.
It looks like a stronger correlation to peak housing price.
....let me get this right. Housing prices previously continued to fall well past the peak of unemployment - And, the peak of 2009 UE is still forthcoming? Some "optimists" think UE will keep increasing well into 2010 or later - with home prices declining well past that?
If under the "magic fairy dust" MORE ADVERSE percentages of unemployment, our CURRENT 10% UE is almost upon us (2 quarters earlier than projected).
It has been justly advocated that a "recovery" cannot take place until the housing price problem stabilizes, and then subsequently unemployment starts leveling off.
It seems to me then that we could in fact be YEARS away from anything resembling a "recovery", using this criteria.
It seems to me then that we could in fact be YEARS away from anything resembling a "recovery", using this criteria.
"Gold Star Next to your black star"
RD
We have similar demographics to the Japanese, we have debt:GDP similar to the depression and currency devaluation similar to the UK in the 20's&30's (sorry UK not Germany)
Agreed Black
.
Wish I could disagree.
I do think that the worst off now will recover first.
Do I mean recover? Nope I mean flat line.
The L shaped thing will be great when it arrives.
Geez, I sense everyone's starting to see what I've been seeing. Guess I'm not crazy after all.
BTW, some realtor over at Jim's site called me "an extreme housing bear".
Did you say thank you veddy much, TJ?
It seems to be the chicken or the egg question.
So either the Fed has to inflate housing or the gov has to make up jobs that pay well.
Seems to me I've seen this movie before. WPA worked for jobs at least.
Now there is no end in sight if the zombie banks curtail "normal" loan activity
That's why I said that an average retrace to 1997 looks like the most optimistic case.
I could see it happening in a few areas.
The credit bubble begins in 1982-83 and we can already see a couple of cities that are headed back to that price level.
I'm a little worried now about how much Google can be trusted.
I wouldn't be surprised if they're under some sort of secret Federal mandate to "maintain confidence".
People are not buying houses at more than half off peak.
My developer bud got some half price offers. He told them no.
The first offers in 2 years.
I told him to slash prices in the fall of 07. He didn't
listen then & I doubt he would listen now.
OT: WSJ running articles about fund managers running back full-tilt into financials.
Broward,
You did see that link on the monstrous credit collapse so far this year, right?
Waiting for godot, I mean.. recovery?
Regarding that WSJ link: If you don't know the secret formula for WSJ full access, do the following:
Copy and paste the full title of WSJ article into google,
mouse on the first news article.
...financials. The CalvinFed has the CalvinBanks' backside so why not get in on the right side of the CalvinStock scheme?
You did see that link on the monstrous credit collapse so far this year, right?
I know there's two distinct phase changes.
The big crash in Sept which took out global trade and trigger the market crash.
And another phase change sometime around March which didn't show up in stocks (yet) but in many other things.
Because you could end up CalvinBroke?
From the refenced WSJ article -
"He believes most banks are cheap, even after recent rallies, and sees a better attitude among the now-humbled management of the major banks, which are working to rebuild their business, not jack up their own bonuses."
There is nothing I can say here.....
"Things are different this time."
Until they're not?
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/21/2009 - 6:05 pm
You did see that link on the monstrous credit collapse so far this year, right?
I know there's two distinct phase changes.
The big crash in Sept which took out global trade and trigger the market crash.
And another phase change sometime around March which didn't show up in stocks (yet) but in many other things.
The big crash in Sept which took out global trade and triggered the first market crash. [fixed it for you]
And another phase change sometime around March which didn't show up in stocks (yet) but in many other things like goods transportation and prices paid to primary food producers and BKd Chrysler and GM and crushed consumer spending as shown in sales tax revenues and... you get it.
Have anything for Minneapolis-St. Paul?
JP
it worked thanks
How sneaky.
Broward, et al,
Read & weep... New, Hard Evidence of Continuing Debt Collapse! | Money and Markets: Free Investment Email Newsletter
Bottom line: The first quarter brought the greatest credit collapse of all time.
JP;
"Just imagine the YOY drop next year"
By next year, the wealthy Iranian refugees should be turning up to save the housing market, no?
"So either the Fed has to inflate housing or the gov has to make up jobs that pay well."
Both are fairly useless.
The government or the private sector has to "make up" jobs that produce value. Nominal scales are meaningless.
"OT: WSJ running articles about fund managers running back full-tilt into financials."
All I see is falling knife catchers. What do they see that I do not? Implied government backstop?
The L-shaped thing will be great when it arrives.
The problem with the L shaped recovery theory is that there's essentially no credit except from the government. So presumably a L shaped recovery takes place because a) the government will continue to provide credit at similar pace for years or b) the government credit will act as a catalyst for growth so that when government spending recedes, the private sector can take over. The former can't happen and the latter is unlikely.
In an economy that has been built on boom/bust, the L-shaped recovery would statistically seem remote.
POiC,thanks for the RedFin link.Piedmont City services from schools to fire and police are incomparable to those in oakland,and yes I include Montclair.Piedmont does deserve a premium over Montclair,but the prices being asked are insane,areas like this take a little longer.A friend used to own 242 wildwood gardens,paid $50k for it in the '50's...cost him more than that to fix the roof in 2004.
TJ,
Why are you so surprised that 'free marketers' do not practise what they preach? Priests used to do the same thing...
RB
Someday we will have to get an L even if it is a barter and trade system.
"Deflation of house prices is a miracle."
I'd say it is supply and demand and simple math catching up with wishful thinking. But I would certainly consider it a blessing.
I would buy GS because they can spin paper into gold. How about JPM, they make the better toaster. BAC is master of widgetry, and Citi, Citi, uh, they have the Mets.
I will never buy equity in a financial company in my life. Unless they cure cancer.
So O is spending 1.5 T more and credit collapsed 2 T.
I don't see inflation here.
It's a funny thing if the banks think that Neither a borrower nor a lender be is
a good idea.
the L shaped ummm non-recovery is a pious hope, not a prediction.
yogi writes;
"I will never buy equity in a financial company in my life. Unless they cure cancer."
Just when we're getting all bearish, along you come with a contrarian buy signal.
I'd better go get my shoes shined and see if I can get confirmation.
Liz
Inflation will come in the form of currency devaluation. That is the debts will grow so large that it will be the only alternative.
Blackhalo, have you seen a homeless epidemic, or a refugee camp? Balance is great, but bulldozing new houses, ordinarily, is a sign of a diseased society.
As soon as Mr. Market figures out that Mr. Obama has stopped asking "how are we gonna pay for all this?" then Mr. Market will weigh in with a new opinion. The problem is people like in this Administration don't understand you just cannot back away from going over the invisible line. 10y has made it clear, we are on the line now. Not soon, now.
I will never buy equity in a financial company in my life. Unless they cure cancer.
Is there a moral distinction between collecting monopoly rent from the control of credit versus the cure for cancer?
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/21/2009 - 6:22 pm
I will never buy equity in a financial company in my life. Unless they cure cancer.
Is there a moral disfference between collecting monopoly rent from the control of credit versus the cure for cancer?
Depends on how much they try to charge and whether they obstruct anyone else from competing.
Bottom line: The first quarter brought the greatest credit collapse of all time
Thanks for the link but I passed through my toxic shock syndrome a few months ago when I saw a RE graph retracing towards the early 1980s. John Templeton predicted that housing would fall by 90%, I thought it was an extreme prediction at the time but not so much now. A complete reset of the credit cycle back to 1982 is possible but I don't see how the current financial system holds together.
My job interview traffic is up in the past 2-3 weeks, best numbers since Jan/Feb.
Probably a bear market rally but still...
Barry Ritholtz in Too Big to Fail: Special NYT edition Too Big to Fail: Special NYT edition | The Big Picture says from from now on, I will be referring to the President as Barack W. Obama — since he is adopting Bush’s economic policies, he might as well as adopt his middle initial.
Yes I agree and it didn't have to be this way...
Bush did it with Iraq war
Obama is doing it with the 19 too big too fail banks
The US financial ponzi scheme is a racket.....Obama and his Wall St bought and paid for economic team have put all their chips on the Banking Oligarchs. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the very many ( the American taxpayers). Obama's objective with his Wall St bought and paid for economic team is to pump up great chunks of the Big Shitpile that's essentially worthless unless the peak real estate values of the bubble can be miraculously restored.
Obamanomics is where
1) The government champions funds
2) Funds champion corporations
3) Corporations champion markets and industries
4) The people ( American taxpayers ) get the tab
Charles Ponzi is laughing out loud at the greatest swindle in American history !
Gorbachev warns that the world’s current economic model, created by “America’s elite,” is “cracking” As it comes undone, many will suffer, he predicted. “Including the United States.”
In many respects he's right but most Americans today are too ignorant or complacent to demand REAL change
Perhaps when it's too late i.e. America becomes a much BIGGER version of Argentina or Mexico in the near future they will wake up and say what the f*ck happened !
If the pace of job growth is the same coming out of this recession as it was during the last 2 (as far as CA goes) we could be looking at only 7% unemployment by as soon as 2016 - that seems like reason to celebrate the beginning of huge growth - not likely. Green shoots my ar$e.
Depends on how much they try to charge and whether they obstruct anyone else from competing.
The altruistic BigPharma patent-holder, which is as rare as the unicorn that poops skittles (or however that goes).
Harper's and their Right wing snipers have wrote a good article comparing Obama to... Herbert Hoover
http://harpers.org/archive/2009/07/0082562
Who knew HH was worth 86 million in adjusted dollars???
All I see is falling knife catchers. What do they see that I do not? Implied government backstop?
I can't wait to see what happens with the banks. I have no clue. On the one hand, you've got a highly-profitable securitization market just blow up completely with a large contraction of the credit card market. On the other hand, you've got the Fed and Treasury literally working day and night with schemes to gift profits that will cover the losses that are now spread out with the change in accounting rules. It's a race that I think the banks will win, but not completely sure.
Fellas I crushed the 10-20 no limit game in AC last night. More than doubled up. My percentage was even better in the market last year. But my heart is right here. Notwithstanding that there is probably some undiscovered use for cancer, it has been proven mathematically that publicly traded bank holding companies have no use at all.
Obama and his Wall St bought....followed by all the exact same stuff you copy and paste from notepad EVERY TIME YOU POST.
You are a monotonous, boring asshole. And I don't even disagree with you.
All I see is falling knife catchers. What do they see that I do not?
They see pink slips in their future if they are running a fund based on financials, yet own no financials.
At least, that's my best guess...
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/21/2009 - 6:27 pm
Depends on how much they try to charge and whether they obstruct anyone else from competing.
The altruistic BigPharma patent-holder, which is as rare as the unicorn that poops skittles (or however that goes).
Other countries treat IP protection as a joke, I don't blame companies too much for perverting the patent process here in response. Don't get me wrong, I disagree but I understand.
@ bobn (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 6/21/2009 - 6:31 pm
Then you must be reading closely....put me on ignore asshole !
@bondtrdr - do you drive on the freeway looking only in the rv mirror? What you're suggesting is the two multi-car pile-ups you've just passed will be what you might find if you dodge the impending 18-wheeler hazmat jackknife up ahead.
Good luck!
C
bobn (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 6/21/2009 - 6:31 pm
also anytime you want top meet F2F just let me know because I'll enjoy it
km4 - it's a deal. b'bye.
"Still worse is Obama’s decision to leave the reordering of the financial world solely to Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner, both of whom played such a major role in deregulating Wall Street and bringing on the disaster in the first place. It’s as if, after winning election in 1932, FDR had brought Andrew Mellon back to the Treasury." - Harpers
bobn @ 6/21/2009 - 6:34 pm
remember let the door hit you in the ass on your way out!
bobn's website Liberative - Liberal, Conservative or What?
Liberative - Liberal, Conservative or What?
I may have a problem with ambivalence - I'm just not sure!
How cute...you sound like an idiot !
How sneaky.
I have not yet begun to sneak.
"Still worse is Obama’s decision to leave the reordering of the financial world solely to Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner,
I don't have a subscription to Harper's, but sentences like this frustrate me. As if Summers and Geithner aren't doing exactly what Obama wants them to do.
Don't forget your sneakers
Looking at the LA graph (because that's where I have a somewhat vested interest), what stands out to me is the breakdown in the inverse relationship between house prices and employment between 2001 and 2003. Unemployment went up AND house prices went up during that period. After 2003 house prices shot up and unemployement went down. I'm guessing that rising home prices caused the increase in employment (versus employment causing the increase in home prices). Although I'm sure it became a "virtuous" cycle.
The implications for future house prices are not good. We have to go back to 2001 prices (adj for inflation) just to get to a steady state level with much lower unemployment.
Now if only I knew what exactly the value of the inflation adjustment will be.
Timwf2012 - tried the workaround on this one and, presto, the search came up with pages of articles in a similar vein, starting from October 2008...! Looks like the snipers had to reload.
C
As if Summers and Geithner aren't doing exactly what Obama wants them to do.
I'm less sure of that. The goal of most generalists is to find competent people to lead various areas (and provide them with guiding principles too, of course.)
It is not clear to me that O understands the mistake yet. My hope is that his feedback loop is better than the last prez, and corrects it by the end of the year. I know, I know, I'm a pie-eyed optimist.
I used to tune out anyone who often quoted the bible, but once more:
Joseph cured the famine cancer with monopoly power granted by Pharaoh. He got rich doing it. The Egyptians thanked him for saving their lives.
Then they made his children slaves. He had talent, but was selfish and vain. His own brothers had sold him into slavery.
Bust the trust. Someone convince me to engage in private lending. I got 100k at TIP rate + 0 to a deserving human.
from prior thread on Goldman bonuses -- submitted to Drudge and now (almost) top headline center column
DRUDGE REPORT 2010®
I just declared myself a bank.
I just declared myself a bank.
I just traced a pentagram on the floor and recited a spell to force you to do my bidding.
And there's a lovely Italian sex scandal.
I'd love to just have a sex scandal to worry about.
If money has lost its meaning that being a bank has lost its
meaning squared.
It's amazing the naivete, or stupidity, that exists in regard to solar and wind power. This post is evidence.
There is enough solar and wind power to provide vast quantities of energy at affordable prices. That isn't debatable.
The real problem is the capital investment required to produce that energy, which is primarily a function of credit availability, interest rates, tax policy and friction.
"Friction" refers to the cost of time and money that's required for individual property owners to get their solar or wind investments connected to the grid, and also the lost energy that the grid can't handle or won't reimburse.
A kilowatt of power that you can efficiently feed into the grid, from solar or wind, is no different than a kilowatt produced by coal, hydro or nuclear. It should sell for the same price.
But it's not in the interest of the electric power industry to let the vast amount of solar and wind powered investments compete on a level playing field with their own investments.
If you have half a brain, you won't be praying that solar and wind power becomes so cheap nobody makes a dime on the business. That's like praying for arrogant fat cat electric power monopolists to get richer. You will pray for a level playing field where all producers of electricity can get equal opportunity to produce and sell power under the law.
Ahem..
//I just traced a pentagram on the floor and recited a spell to force you to do my bidding.//
bankerwannabe
"I'm guessing that rising home prices caused the increase in employment (versus employment causing the increase in home prices). Although I'm sure it became a "virtuous" cycle."
What happens when asset bubbles are allowed to grow and permeate into all parts of the economy.
And there's a lovely Italian sex scandal.
Can't mention something like that without a link!
Did it work, yogster, Broward???
You had candles right Brow? Must have candles.
And salt I think too.
It was headlined in the Drudge report mentioned above.
What do you think?
//Did it work, yogster, Broward???//
"I'm guessing that rising home prices caused the increase in employment (versus employment causing the increase in home prices). Although I'm sure it became a "virtuous" cycle."
Without question. All the private job growth this century has come from construction, finance and government, although healthcare also was also a smaller net positive.
I don't think they were trying to call you up, Luci.
Did it work?
Yes, I just received my $100K at Tip rate + 0% from Yogi.
Unfortunately it's in some "universal global currency" that nobody will accept.
Broward---hahahahahahahahahahahahahah.
Do you have to pay it back?
Oh.. I see. They were trying to conjure timmey..
//I don't think they were trying to call you up, Luci.//
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/21/2009 - 6:52 pm
And there's a lovely Italian sex scandal.
Can't mention something like that without a link!
Do you take a shower fully clothed?
"Virtue" turns out to have been indistinguishable from Vice.
Ya.. tell me.
//"Virtue" turns out to have been indistinguishable from Vice.//
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/21/2009 - 6:57 pm
"Virtue" turns out to have been indistinguishable from Vice.
Not if you are doing the vice correctly. The man with the melon switches on the battery and places his hips against the swivel table...
Who's the head?
"Unfortunately it's in some "universal global currency" that nobody will accept."
He loaned you Glod?
This was just posted in KD's Ticker Forum under breaking news:
Those of you following the news out of Iran know that Twitter user PersianKiwi has given some of the best information and updates frequently. She is currently tweeting about the general strike scheduled for tomorrow (Tuesday), and apparently now there are plans for outright economic warfare against the Iranian regime by its own people:
Quote:
#
start to confuse militia - telephone Republican Guard and tell them there is march in your street when there is none - #Iranelection RT RT
#
Ppl stop working - go to work if you must - but do nothing - bring all Gov offices to halt - #Iranelection RT22 minutes ago from web
#
Ppl - stop to pay all electricity, gas, water, telephone bills from today - this will starve the Gov - #Iranelection23 minutes ago from web
#
Ppl if you have money in bank - withdraw ALL your account - Gov is using your money to kill your ppl - #Iranelection
I don't suppose anyone knows what the reserve ratio is for Iranian banks?
(You can follow PersianKiwi on Twitter here: persiankiwi (persiankiwi) on Twitter and you can follow the latest protest news on Twitter with the hashtag #iranelection : http://twitter.com/#search?q=%23IranElec....)
Update: And there goes the oil supply...
Quote:
Expect food shortage - transport stoppage - money shortage in bank #Iranelection RT RT RThalf a minute ago from web
Soon Mousavi will announce full national strikes, probably starting with Petrochemical - prepare for this #Iranelection RT RT RT
Ahh, finally.
I've suspected this for quite awhile.
Just more fraud.
Facebook Click Fraud Enraging Advertisers (Updated)
"advertisers are complaining of massive click fraud and an indifferent Facebook"
Well, there you go.
The blow from the entirely unexpected source.
I mean that I would have expected a mid east blow up, but not one where we would be supporting (will we?)
the blowers-up.
"Soon Mousavi will announce full national strikes, probably starting with Petrochemical "
If they start blowing up wellheads, we've all got a problem.
silvio berlusconi's wife left him because he's busy cavorting with 18 year olds.
Clickfraud. Hoocouldanode?
A new sin, eh, Luci?
Silvio berlusconi's wife left him because he's busy cavorting with 18 year olds.
Damn 18? that makes our scandals look wholesome.
Actually that's old news, but I was feeling wistful for news
of sex scandals and kittens up trees.
But isn't the market all-seeing and all-knowing?
Bernanke Must Reassure ‘Confused’ Market About Rate Strategy
Bernanke Must Reassure Market About Rate Strategy (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
By Rich Miller and Michael McKee
"advertisers are complaining of massive click fraud and an indifferent Facebook"
Which will magically go away when their next round of funding is completed.
According to banker math there's no moral difference between two 18 year olds and one 36 year old.
Ever seen 'pleasantville'..
//kittens up trees.//
Not only that Luci, it's all priced in!
hmm... first try didn't work
really neat pics of detroit rotting -- Detroit Urban Exploration - a set on Flickr
this guy was on npr a little while ago. fascinating.
I beg to differ.. a threesome with two 18 year olds is not the same as a 36 year old.
//According to banker math there's no moral difference between two 18 year olds and on 36 year old.//
China Should Have ‘Moderately Loose’ Monetary Policy, Wen Says
Wen Pledges to Add More Money to China’s Economy to Spur Growth - Bloomberg.com
Hey I thought they were well on our way to full recovery???
RD LOL
I don't think it qualifies as a sin.
//A new sin, eh, Luci?//
Yeah, the 36 year old is prolly more fun.
They are still screwed!
Active Managers Get the Cold Shoulder
Active Managers Get the Cold Shoulder - WSJ.com
A growing number of big investors are concluding that stock and bond pickers failed to add any value during the market turmoil and are shifting to index funds, a move that threatens to cut profits for asset managers.
"Active managers have not given us the added performance in a down market that we hoped for," says Bill Atwood, executive director of the $9 billion Illinois State Board of Investment. Disappointing returns by some large- and small-stock managers led his fund to move about $400 million to index funds
Why not?
No.. probably more easy.
//Yeah, the 36 year old is prolly more fun.//
TJ, what about tech? There must have been some job growth with the advent of the PC, especially if you're talking in terms of centuries. I agree with your general sentiment, but no job growth other than real estate, finance and governement in the last century seems a bit extreme. I'd definitely buy it for the last 5 years.
Compared to the shenanningans of banksters, it looks so tiny and quaint.
//Why not?//
I said this century -- 2000 forward, ya know?
Two 18-year-olds have four hands so they can steal money twice as fast as a 36-year-old.
Must go to bed early, have to get up at 0 dark thirty to fly to Baltimore
to do my mom's closing.
Conjure up some good closing mojo, y'all.
Nitey-nite.
"Two 18-year-olds have four hands so they can steal money twice as fast as a 36-year-old. "
Never carry more money than you can afford to lose. Lucifer probably has more good tips.
Prepaid escorts from a reputable agency+ prepaid hotel room solve that problem.
//Two 18-year-olds have four hands so they can steal money twice as fast as a 36-year-old.//
What did I tell you...
An 18-y-o for sex?
Shirley you jest, Lucifer.
Zzzzzzzzz.......
Exhausting morning on the Nikki225, whipsawing, absolutely ... hey, hang on, they've re-scaled so that the entire range fills the chart, 60 points out of 9800. No wonder it looks like end of morning stick saves to ... ooh, 0.1% up.
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/tnks/marketlive.aspx
A shocking associated article mentions stocks only edging up on lack of US cues.
No way to run an exchange. Sounds like they're waiting for public information. Dolts.
C
Thanks TJ .... now I'm with you
"...Silvio berlusconi's wife left him because he's busy cavorting with 18 year olds."
boys or girls?
So it begins..
British workers face 20% cut in pensions
FT.com / UK / Business - British workers face 20% cut in pensions?
By Paul J. Davies, Insurance Correspondent
Published: June 22 2009 01:08
British workers could see pensions cut up to 20 per cent under European rules that govern insurance company capital requirements.
The pain will be felt by those with defined contribution pension schemes, in which money is used to buy an annuity on retirement, which pays out a fixed income until death.
No.. It is quite easy.
//Shirley you jest, Lucifer.//
Easy != good
Early this morning, I emailed my representative and two senators expressing my outrage (about Goldman bonuses). I expect the same result I got when I called and wrote about the original TARP. Nothing.
The real question is whether they will get even 20% of their pensions..
British workers face 20% cut in pensions
Target-Date Fund Rules May Hinder Recovery of Losses
"Equity limits may mean missing out on the market’s rebound, said Jeffrey Coons, co-director of research at Manning & Napier, an investment firm in Fairport, New York that has managed target-date funds since the 1970s.
“If we have legislation that pushes people out of stocks after the worst 10 years we’ve had in the markets, that will be locking in those losses,” Coons said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 38 percent last year. "
Don't miss that Rebound!!!!
Think happy thoughts..
//Don't miss that Rebound!!!!//
coinz: maybe if we all tweeted our elected....., nevermind, tweets only work when you take to the street
i trying to get my redneck state from ditching Goldman as one of the managers for the state's pension fund. it's getting some traction with the state legislator from BFE with the 20% unemployment, but it's tough to get around the placement fees paid to the oversight board.
"...placement fees paid to the oversight board."
bribes?
deleted duplicate
volker: I have given up on our representative republic working for the interests of the people.
Sorry, even bankers must eat.
And digest this nonsense:
I pray that solar and wind power become so cheap nobody makes a dime off the business.
It's amazing the naivete, or stupidity, that exists in regard to solar and wind power. This post is evidence.
There is enough solar and wind power to provide vast quantities of energy at affordable prices. That isn't debatable.
The real problem is the capital investment required to produce that energy, which is primarily a function of credit availability, interest rates, tax policy and friction.
A kilowatt of power that you can efficiently feed into the grid, from solar or wind, is no different than a kilowatt produced by coal, hydro or nuclear. It should sell for the same price.
If you have half a brain, you won't be praying that solar and wind power becomes so cheap nobody makes a dime on the business. That's like praying for arrogant fat cat electric power monopolists to get richer. You will pray for a level playing field where all producers of electricity can get equal opportunity to produce and sell power under the law.
You, sir, have half a brain.
A kilowatt of power that you can efficiently feed into the grid, from solar or wind, is no different than a kilowatt produced by coal, hydro or nuclear. It should sell for the same price.
Even a neanderthal knew that when he burned a log, it was not there in the morning, but the sun rose and the wind blew.
The real problem is the capital investment required to produce that energy, which is primarily a function of credit availability, interest rates, tax policy and friction.
No, it is primarily a function of technology and division of labor, which are possible under different economic systems and modes of taxation. Israel produced efficient solar energy panels in the 60's under a radical socialist system.
"but it's tough to get around the placement fees paid to the oversight board. "
Is your local newspaper in on the take? If not, that sounds like red meat for some enterprising reporter, may with a few hints to them started?
It seems like people could go to jail for that.
coinz: welcome to the dark side
You believed in them?
//I have given up on our representative republic working for the interests of the people.//
Yes, I still had some hope that parts of the system functioned before the TARP was passed. That snuffed out the last flicker of hope in me.
The next question is do we devolve into the quasi-capitalism of Europe, radicalize into facism, or spin in some other direction?
quasi-capitalism is not so bad..
//The next question is do we devolve into the quasi-capitalism of Europe, radicalize into facism, or spin in some other direction?//
do we devolve into the quasi-capitalism of Europe, radicalize into facism, or spin in some other direction?
I thought you were paying attention.
If you have half a brain, you won't be praying that solar and wind power becomes so cheap nobody makes a dime on the business. That's like praying for arrogant fat cat electric power monopolists to get richer. You will pray for a level playing field where all producers of electricity can get equal opportunity to produce and sell power under the law.
If you can't understand that in an efficient economy profits go to zero in the long run, you shouldn't be on this board. But I'll try to educate you. By "nobody makes a dime on the business" I mean by profiting individually from others' labor, in the long run. Think Linus Torvalds. I pray that wind turbines and solar panels are developed that can be produced so cheaply and easily by sharing the code that a teenager could assemble one from local materials, with his own labor. No patent lawyers, no bankers, no stock brokers, just shared code.
I'm late to today's party, but in case this hasn't been mentioned...
CR has covered the recent history of jobless recoveries from recessions; over the last 30 years employment for each one slower to recover than the previous. This trend, if it continues (any doubt?) should result in housing recovery taking longer than past falls.
Also, as I mentioned in a "pigged" thread a couple of days ago, the demographics of an aging society are going to cause the long-term positive bias in real home prices to level off or reverse.
I'll take a piece of the action that says we spin off into "...some other direction."
cr: you should consider submitting this post to a peer reviewed journal
Do you think they want anything other than the orthodoxy.
//peer reviewed journal//
Ive been thinking about "jobless recovery" a little. Is it possible that our division of labor has progressed to the point where it is very hard to make parallel moves now?
You can take McDonald's skills to Burger King, but you can't take most professionals making 6 figures and move into a similar position in a different field. High level accountants can become engineers and vice versa. If so, doesn't this make malinvestment much more harmful to society now than it did 100 years ago when labor was more fungible?
Bingo! But we still require continuing steady consumption to avoid a collapse.
//Ive been thinking about "jobless recovery" a little. Is it possible that our division of labor has progressed to the point where it is very hard to make parallel moves now//
Is it possible that our division of labor has progressed to the point where it is very hard to make parallel moves now?
Not only possible but likely. I look at an axis with "peer-to-peer" structure at one end, and centralized structure at the other. By definition, an economy which becomes more and more specialized becomes more susceptible to disruption because there's less and less redundancy.
Peer-to-peer == high redundancy, low value
Centralized == high value, easily broken
So you get a pendulum effect as economies swing between the axis extremes.
"If so, doesn't this make malinvestment much more harmful to society now than it did 100 years ago when labor was more fungible?"
Maybe, but the obvious solution is to train people to be more fungible. A lot of people have already figured this out and retrained themselves on their own or through lifetime learning. The most important thing I ever learned was how to learn stuff. When you see the stats about people having more and more different jobs in a typical working lifetime, you can see this in action.
I know more PhDs that are working in a field other than their training than not.
The trouble is that so few people get truly useful educations, and fewer still are willing/able to retrain and change fields.
Yes!
//If so, doesn't this make malinvestment much more harmful to society now than it did 100 years ago when labor was more fungible?//
broward, that is interesting. I can't see us going backward because we can't compete with low paid foreign workers for manual labor. That is going to leave a huge swath of the working population out in the cold.
sm_landlord, I agree about "learning to learn". That was the most important thing I got out of college, and maybe that was the point.
lucifer, we agree.
gotta run, nytol.
Broward you score 5 rating points for humor, but the credit application specifically states that Pagan or Satanic rituals subtract 4 (Established religious rituals subtract 10, so you got a break).
I was looking more for insight into the latest innovation in private lending networks, which work, on faith. Such as, I will arbitrage your bank's obscene credit card rates for your good faith promise that you will reform, and token collateral (do any plumbing, grow any avocados?...)
There's a lot of implications to work specialization if you think about it long enough.
Increasingly rigid structure.
Increasing partitioning of information, which means that binding numerous knowledge domains together in a team creates opportunities for exploitation and conspiracies. The act of partitioning knowledge is contradictory to how traditional "free markets" are supposed to work, i.e. they assume all participants possess full knowledge.
The knowledge domains themselves get redefined.
An increasing knowledge base means that, on average, each fact becomes less known to the public. It becomes more difficult to assume a certain level of shared context - cultural beliefs, vocabulary, etc.
re: cultural beliefs--you mean like a trust relationship?
"I was looking more for insight into the latest innovation in private lending networks, which work, on faith."
Have you checked out prosper.com?
So as some of us suspected RE prices do not move (recover) overnight. And as long as an investment into the RE goes, there is no point in rushing because value does not appear / disappear overnight. Thank you CR.
p.s. So much for green shootz recovery due to the bounce in housing & related.
New Century?
//Have you checked out prosper.com?//
Nothing beats showing the nuts to an arrogant prick who thinks he knows everything but actually had no clue about the strength of your hand. The cash is just Ponzi.
Hey.. 'The Simpsons' are making fun HELOC, Home ATMs, Adjustable Rate Loans.
The Simpsons get foreclosed
Did I mention that Israel will have almost all electric cars in a couple of years? And socialized health insurance, still.
I can't see us going backward
Yes, it's a problem.
The solution, in one sentence, is to push human transactions into silicon. One of my big thought projects is how do I increase the scale at which a team functions. increasing team size doesn't scale well and it's one of the problems with brute-forcing software development through off-shoring.
You need to push vocational skills into the tool set, and maintain human knowledge domains for non-technical domains.
Thoughts about knowledge domains from two years ago -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=crosscutting_information_domains
""I was looking more for insight into the latest innovation in private lending networks"
private lending is always shady, however there are so called angels networks. Those are created for the purpose of every investments into various businesses. In general, it is not recommended to allocate more than 10% of capital and invest into those unless you are wealthy. (can easily afford to lose 100K or so...)
the well known angel's network in LA is called Pasadena Angels (or similar).
p.s. The above is not the investment advice, invest at your own risk, etc.
re: cultural beliefs--you mean like a trust relationship?
Yes, that's a layer that's dependent on cultural assumptions.
One of the great strengths of the U.S. (as Nemo pointed out one day, to my surprise) is that the U.S. places less value on certain attributes like color, ethnicity, and more value on abstract values like honesty, etc. I think it's one reason we won WWII and why we currently run the world. We created cultural interfaces with the rest of the world which are about commerce, not about tribes.
I agree!
//One of the great strengths of the U.S. (as Nemo pointed out one day, to my surprise) is that the U.S. places less value on certain attributes like color, ethnicity, and more value on abstract values like honesty, etc. I think it's one reason we won WWII and why we currently run the world. We created cultural interfaces with the rest of the world which are about commerce, not about tribes.//
Was going to post something else on the absurdity of market commentary at the moment, but this caught my eye, and really shows that amateur satirists are really going to need some job portability if big media continues like this: Bloomberg on the Kenya stock exchange...
Kenya Stocks Gain 16th Day in World’s Longest Winning Streak - Bloomberg.com
nytol
C
Broward,
So IBM has not learned from Brooks, even though he wrote the book about one of their projects?
You can get some leverage with well-defined interfaces, but how do you scale the architectural effort to get the interfaces right?
It's like Russian dolls.
prosper.com is in hiatus.
Something about " their atatement to SEC"
That place was funny !!
Re: " Girl in stripper get-up 'wants to borrow $7900 for apt. rent at 29 percent ;
and may loan some to others on Prosper at a higher rate"
Occupations like IT and the Law want to build competitive advantages out of monopolizing vocational information. That's not a long-term winning path. They should be focused on more abstract concepts like ethical consistency - building a foundation of how and why.
sm_landlord - a lot of industry people don't understand Brooks. In fact, many people never heard of him. But regardless, complexity is multiplicative. How do we expand that? I think by forcing vocational structures into silicon and pushing human knowledge domains towards more abstract structures. For instance, I really don't want to pay a guy who's skill is Websphere Process Server, I'd rather be in a position to use an accountant or scientist to focus more on the business, not the implementation.
Thank you. I read about a more structured network, that gives you detailed credit analysis and tries to match your risk level with a borrower. I would gladly bail out a sucker who really did get stuck in a bad credit card deal, or still doesn't realize the compounding factor, but otherwise demonstrates productivity and restraint.
"For instance, I really don't want to pay a guy who's skill is Websphere Process Server, I'd rather be in a position to use an accountant or scientist to focus more on the business, not the implementation."
Agreed. It's going to take a long time to get there - as you know, that been the holy grail for a very long time.
I've always joked that my ideal programming language would have a single method: DoIt ();
The method should have one parameter, which expresses when you want it done... Oh, and it always succeeds.
DoIt (Now);
//done
"Yeah, the 36 year old is prolly more fun."
In that she might have a decent career and less of a party attitude? Yeah. But 2 18 year old, would be hard for my little head to pass up.
...."Yeah, the 36 year old is prolly more fun.".......................no "prolly" about it.................