Just wait until this summer, when states and cities cut services and headcount or the Chinese and Japanese stiff Obama for bailing states and cities out.
Yes, as one clever CR poster put it, we may have a 'Summer of Love' before us.
12-States with a REAL unemployment 2X U-3......those are Depression figures, Folks! You can color it any old way you want, but it still comes out as "chocolate brown".
"Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has said legislative leaders are going to need fortitude to eliminate California's $24.3 billion budget deficit with deep cuts to cherished programs.
To help with that, the governor sent Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg a metal sculpture of bull testicles, intended as a gag gift."
I think a better metric for Michigan is that we have lost over 800,000 jobs (mostly manufacturing) in the last seven years and have had negative YoY job growth since 2001.
I have been cautiously optimistic that President Obama would hold his Administration’s financial regulatory plan to the transparency he talks so eloquently about. Where is the transparency with hedge funds, one of the largest contributors to the meltdown? Another major player was the rating agencies –– how can we be comfortable that that problem will not recur? Has compensation dropped off the table? Incentives influence results so lets encourage the goose to lay golden eggs, not lead balloons.
I retired early from the Bank of America and what I considered a lead parachute in 1992 has melted into a dead weight with Kenneth Lewis, a mergers & acquisitions guy, still in charge. I’m not surprised, just sadly disappointed.
got pigged earlier but thought this needs to be said:
energyecon wrote:
Think about that final line in the context of current availability of credit for ag investment, and internal focus of developed economies dealing with their own...'issues' - recall the fertilizer manufacturers shutting in more capacity story of a couple days back
World hunger reaches the 1 billion people mark.
thanks for the posting... I see it just about fifty feet from where I write this, women with their babies living on the street...
that's why I get a bit fed up with so much boo-hooing Stateside... come to Asia and I'll show what it means to live day by day....
you have no idea how good you have it!!
and no snark in that line...
OT / and a repost! hey one more hilarious YouTube vib (has nearly 2 million hits...) YouTube - Old woman shoots MP40 Machine gun Grandma Shoots MP40 machine gun....
listen to grandma's accent,
if that was a picture of BHO up there on the target
I bet'cha granny would've never taken her finger off that trigger
Even if CA can cut it's deficit for THIS year...2010 will be a real eye opener. As for the other49.......TOAST. They just will not admit they too are CA....just not yet. The green shoots are going bad and are now starting to smell up the joint.
very interesting comment in the China Daily about Iran....
....
Conceivably, Hu would have discussed the Iran situation with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev during his official visit to Moscow that followed the SCO summit. Earlier, Moscow welcomed Ahmadinejad's re-election. Both China and Russia abhor "color" revolutions, especially something as intriguing as Twitter, which Moscow came across a few months ago in Moldova and raises hackles about the US's interventionist global strategy.
China anticipated the backlash against Ahmadinejad's victory. On Monday, The Global Times newspaper quoted the former Chinese ambassador to Iran, Hua Liming, that the Iranian situation would get back to normalcy only if a negotiated agreement was reached among the "major centers of political power ... But, if not, the recent turmoil in Thailand will possibly be repeated". It is quite revealing that the veteran Chinese diplomat drew a parallel with Thailand.
Thailand... now there's a subject quite close to home for me... guess they're seeing it through the lens of countryside peasants versus city bourgeoisie...
once you've had one cultural revolution you can never think anew....
U6 is 7 percent higher, nationally. I couldn't locate the Cali U6, but it's at least that much higher than the U3 of 11.4 --- so around 18.4. Last October there was a general expection (among CR bloggers) that we would be seeing a U6 approaching 20 by end 2009. At least a dozen states are going to meet expectations.
Yep, I still have a job but a zillion of us don't and will never see that type of pay again. I feel for those under 40 because you are going to have about 50 jobs in your life time with no way to build some $. We will finally slip in to the world that uncle milton freidman set in motion maybe 5% control 95% of $ of this nation and always at war.
jo6pac
Everything is on schedule, please move along
"... Hu would have discussed the Iran situation with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev during his official visit to Moscow that followed the SCO summit..."
........that's just symbolic for media release ....China's foreign policy on mid-east region has been neutral , never changed .....the real discussion must be base currency isssue replacing $ ......
"thanks for the posting... I see it just about fifty feet from where I write this, women with their babies living on the street...
that's why I get a bit fed up with so much boo-hooing Stateside... come to Asia and I'll show what it means to live day by day....
you have no idea how good you have it!!"
Duke, what country or neck of the woods are you in, if you're comfortable in saying so? SE Asia somewhere?
And I agree with what you say about relative lifestyles -- but of course expectations are relative, too. A household with one car, ok health care, a secure living, a small but decent house with the basic modcons, decent clothing and a couple of common luxuries -- a good part of the the world would kill for that. Problem here in the states is that we have too much of some of these, not enough of the others, and more is being taken away.
"Even if CA can cut it's deficit for THIS year...2010 will be a real eye opener. As for the other49.......TOAST. They just will not admit they too are CA....just not yet. The green shoots are going bad and are now starting to smell up the joint. "
CA is first and worst because its tax/revenue system has been off the rails for 30 years. When the economy sneezes, California goes to the ICU. Barring total breakdown, nobody's going to be as bad as California unless they, too, have been undertaxing and overspending for 30 years, and have severely limited the power of state governments both to take and to make cuts (by instituting many "protected" programs).
I don't need a job, I need a refi!
Long Live Ponzi-nomics!
June 19 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama’s program to help more homeowners refinance may be expanded to include borrowers who owe more than 105 percent of their homes’ values, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said.
The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday.
"The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday."
If they allow 'buying' with an LTV of 125% (or higher) on a non-recourse loan, then RRE is bound to climb...
In the Metro Phx area we need re-fi loans for 150% of current value.
Values are down 30%+, alt mortgages with increase in pricipal owed. Plus all the fines and charges the lender adds on for cost to redo a loan. (not to mention the late and legal charges if you don't pay to get thier attention to get a loan mod.)
Lets not forget underemployed and discouraged workers who are not included in unemployment calculations. Broader unemployment measures are at 16.4%, and accelerating.
HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 10:59 am
The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday.
OK, This is insane. Between the government job factory, UE and bailouts to the irresponsible, stupid or outright criminal... I have no doubt it will surprise us all just how long they can keep this idiot circus going on borrowed money.
The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher
They're gonna need to keep the mortgage rates down if they want any takers.
This recession tracks the Great Depression - with Charts!
"Profs Eichengreen and O’Rourke describe this contrast. During the Great Depression, the weighted average discount rate of the seven leading economies never fell below 3 per cent. Today it is close to zero. Even the European Central Bank, most hawkish of the big central banks, has lowered its rate to 1 per cent. Again, during the Great Depression, money supply collapsed. But this time it has continued to rise. Indeed, the combination of strong monetary growth with deep recession raises doubts about the monetarist explanation for the Great Depression. Finally, fiscal policy has been far more aggressive this time. In the early 1930s the weighted average deficit for 24 significant countries remained smaller than 4 per cent of gross domestic product. Today, fiscal deficits will be far higher. In the US, the general government deficit is expected to be almost 14 per cent of GDP."
Lets not forget underemployed and discouraged workers who are not included in unemployment calculations. Broader unemployment measures are at 16.4%, and accelerating.
Self-employed. Self-employed. Self-employed. Hello. I'm hearing an echo.
creditcriminalslovetarp (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 11:46 am
you would think if they were proliferating, they would be heading TO NK instead of TO Singapore... maybe they better hold off... and see what they bring back and not what they are taking...
What percentage of home buyers are using traditional 30 yr. mortgages, and what percentage are using ARMs or other non-traditional loans? Has it changed at all? Just curious.
You mean states OTHER than Cali were had homeowners borrowing at 13x annual income? I somehow doubt that. Only Cali had the suicidal level of hubris and crazy justifying THAT level of insanity. Granted Florida, Nevada and Arizona were in the same ballpark, but only California gets the pennant for most stupid mo-fo's
Actually HomeGnome I was thinking more of what loan products are being used by today's buyer. As in, are people still able to get risky loans? Are they still going that route? I'm wondering how the loan products offered have changed in the past, oh, 6 months. What's propping up today's buying market.
i agree, seems we are provoking , because Il said last week that if we tried to stop any ship he would consider it an act of war...now we decide (to threaten) to stop a ship that is leaving with proliferating... seems pretty ballsy on our part...
(by the Circle J erks, 80s punk band)
in a sluggish econo-mee
inflation, recession
hits the land of the free
standing in unemployment lines
blame the government for hard times
we just get by
however we can
we all gotta duck
when the shit hits the fan
10 kids in a cadillac [update for 2000's: Escalade]
stand in lines for welfare checks let's all leach off the state
gee! the money's really great!
soup lines
free loaves of bread
5lb blocks of cheese
bags of groceries
social security
has run out on you and me
we do whatever we can
gotta duck when the shit hits the fan
Rather Ironic:
FDA: Don't Eat Toll House Refrigerated Cookie Dough
The company said the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control are investigating reported E. coli illnesses that might be related to the ingestion of raw cookie dough.
The company says consumers should not eat raw cookie dough and that such a warning is featured on its packaging.
The recall includes refrigerated cookie bar dough, cookie dough tub, cookie dough tubes, limited edition cookie dough items, seasonal cookie dough and Ultimates cookie bar dough.
It did not have to be 13X to be f'in stupid. No income makes 1X a biotch....Welcome to the depression. Side note...13X just exposes them FIRST and the rest are following right in line.
They would just let all the underwater loans default.
Those that can't pay the mortgage would walk away.
The lenders would get real on pricing REO properties.
The people with deep pockets would scoop up the REOs and rent them to the people who should have always been renters.
ALL the stuff on everyones balance sheets (shadow, dark, off the books) should be put on the books, in the open.
I want every penny of every dime the Fed spent, gaurenteed, loaned or just gave away accounted for, by firm and use.
We can not go forward without taking out the mountain of trash in front of the door. Just be done with shoving the bags around and let it go. Then we can pick up the pieces and get on with things.
I'm sorry. Millions of people will lose billions or trillion or zillions of dollars. It was a bubble and everyone blew and blew and blew. The ballon exploded. Those are the facts. The sooner we deal with the facts the better.
" jo6pac (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 8:49 am
We will finally slip in to the world that uncle milton freidman set in motion maybe 5% control 95% of $ of this nation and always at war."
Good post, only partially right, though, this was set in motion with in 1913 with the Federal Reserve Act. But your premise is correct, we will inevitably move towards serfdom. There is no other way out given the institutions we have in place. I just hope the process is slow during my lifetime.
"refinance may be expanded to include borrowers who owe more than 105 percent of their homes’ value"
'More than'??? Wow...that's sickening. Must be why they're putting the memoratorium on foreclosures..so they can pull off something as morally bankrupt as this
At what point are unemployment and lower incomes not lagging indicators, but leading indicators? My guess is that people don't really stop spending until they lose their jobs and lose their income. Then they take a machete to spending.
Prague Spring in Teheran?
In his first public response to days of mass protests, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sternly warned opposition supporters on Friday to stay off the streets and raised the prospect of violence if the defiant, vast demonstrations continued. (NY Times)
sounds like we are close to the theocratic form of the Breshnev Doctrine... August 20, 1968, anyone?
June 19 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama’s program to help more homeowners refinance may be expanded to include borrowers who owe more than 105 percent of their homes’ values, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said.
The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday.
dont you believe it (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 11:30 am
@BURN
-- I hope to join the 5%.--
That should have read: "...the world that uncle milton freidman set in motion maybe 0.5% control 99.5% of $"...
That 4.5% are the real dopes who allowed the 0.5% the power they have, under the pretense they would all get rich together. Well, it's true, many got rich. But they are gradually discovering that some rich are richer than others.
"The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday."
No question in my mind this will be allowed to happen. I am surprised it hasn't happened yet.
This is all part of the plan to move debt out of the private sector and onto the shoulders of the govt (or better yet, monetize it) The purpose is not to give homeowners relief, but to move what is left of the mortgages in toxic assets and/or bank balance sheets into fannie/freddie/fha MBS where the Fed will buy it and turn it into money.
The govt knows well that the US will never be downgraded, and is betting our trading partners have no choice but to keep buying our debt, and we will be able to inflate it away over time.
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 9:04 am
This recession tracks the Great Depression - with Charts!
You might be interested to know that this spring I attended a lecture by one of the authors (Eichengreen) and he used several of CR's graphs in the presentation.
being sarky earlier in other comments but I have learned more about RE in the last 10 months on CR than in the course of my entire life...
plus, the other info filled in the large holes in my brain that once were filled say 15-20 years ago (the Albert Hall thing)...
,,,
but I will say that this blog has been very helpful and influencing to others, I for one,
report via email every 7 to 10 days about the unemployment situation to a major East coast columnist
who has taken a strong wonkish interest in BLS data, birth death, etc...
so my many thanks to everyone... esp. CR!
in order to maintain an agnostic or may I even say a Jesuitical approach I do not read the columns produced by said person(s)...
but the questions I get in return are a fair gauge of some influence...
Did the lecture offer any insights or predictions as to when certain breakdowns will to start to occur? also, did they start to use the term 'depression'?
We cannot get involved. A softly-softly approach is needed otherwise you'll rob reformers of any legitimacy as the other side will scream they're just puppets of the great satan, little-satan, zionists etc. This is something the Iranian people themselves need to resolve, they did it in 1979 they should be able to do it again.
"The govt knows well that the US will never be downgraded, and is betting our trading partners have no choice but to keep buying our debt, and we will be able to inflate it away over time."
Wanna bet? TIC numbers are showing otherwise already...
"The govt knows well that the US will never be downgraded, and is betting our trading partners have no choice but to keep buying our debt, and we will be able to inflate it away over time."
That'll work as long as our bondholders keep thinking that "we're too big to fail". They might not fall for that BS as easily as the last two administrations have.
I've been saying for a while that unemployment shifts to a leading indicator when private sector debt levels are high... and of course right now they are in the stratosphere
Be careful with Silver. Silver outperformed gold for the first time this past few months unusual and always quite bearish for silver price relative to gold. I'd sell silver here and buy gold if you want to stay within the PM space.
"I still say if they want people to refi even at 125% of value, they're going to have to keep the fixed rates down. Can they do this?"
If you can still refit at 125% why stop there !! I'd like to refi at 400% LTV. Of course then I'll be heading off down to Mexico and mailing some keys back.
on a side note and I'll say no more... 32 years ago my girlfriend in CA Roxanne M.'s father was the Shah's personal physician....
the smart money had been moving their assets out of Iran for years, they knew the Shah was a goner! Her family had a house in
DC and a brand new home in Tiberon... of course she drove a Mercedes 280 SL... UCB....
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 12:42 pm replyIgnore user
wrt IMF gold sales.... I know that russia and china both have been buying up gold for over a year now. I am afraid that they might try and establish a "world currency " back by a gold standard. That would wipe out our fiat currency over night. We might as well have pesos.
we would have to rein in trillions in currency to match our gold reserves..... can you imagine how hard it would be for the govt to bail out themselves with worthless treasuries...
"The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday."
BTW, even the current program, refinancing loans up to 105 ltv, is illegal under current law.
Under the GSE charters, they can only purchase loans with ltvs 80 or under without mortgage insurance or other credit enhancement. These refinances have neither.
Basically Lockhart got an opinion that these were really "modifications" and thus were not subject to the charter restrictions.
But these are new loans - the borrower is getting a new note, and the old one is paid off.
No one who is affected cares enough to challenge this interpretation, and Congress doesn't want to open the GSE charters at this time anyway.
Yet another example of the Obama administration ignoring the laws of Congress where appropriate.
"If you can still refit at 125% why stop there !! I'd like to refi at 400% LTV."
I actually do not understand why they would stop at 125. The 105 restriction is due to the standard documents in their MBS. But the Fed has already killed the MBS market, so who cares?
IMO and many others russia is in no position to be est a new reserve currency. Look at palladium prices lots of dumping. Could be selling palladium to buy gold
-- "The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday." --
The Obama Administration would be better off to develop a 'Marshall Plan' for the USA.
Can anyone here state a consumer item 'Made in USA' that they have purchased within the last year. I can only think of a very few personally, and those have no broad market penetration.
kilroy sez:
I've been saying for a while that unemployment shifts to a leading indicator when private sector debt levels are high... and of course right now they are in the stratosphere.
Russia can't force a new reserve currency on their own.
They need China, Brazil, Japan, and OPEC on board.
It will take a while to that to happen. Maybe 10-20 years?
There is a group of us here who have been banging that drum for months - UE (particularly U-6 and continuing claims) is a leading indicator for consumer credit default rates and prime mortgage distress - lessee, Rob Dawg were you one of the others?
Dirk posted this in his email "Lots More Gas" yesterday..."In terms of energy content, there is a 6:1 ratio between an MCF of gas and a barrel of oil. At the current futures price of $4.12 an MCF, natural gas is going for the equivalent of only $24.72 a barrel, a massive discount to the current $71.06 price of oil. This will make a very significant difference to your energy investments." Also, "domestic Natural Gas reserves are 35% higher than previously estimated due to improved ability to tap deep shale deposits"...switching to NG could be a reasonable use of cash for business investment. There are already NG cars on the road in the US.
China and venezula and India and OPEC would jump on board as would others as a creating a gold backed currency wouldnt have to be any harder than creating the euro. That hold up was more political. But even they have capital standards we cant meet. They could get enough folks that would agree that they would rather peg with gold than US IOU's....
Part of the problem with states is that they're too many of them. We don't need two states with gambling, for example. So divest New Jersey. Florida? Please. A lot more could be cut as well.
The problem is obtaining the additional investment required to switch...
Plus, the cost differential has to go away to make the shale deposits economic to tap. The only shale nat gas drilling programs underway at the moment are the absolute minimum required to retain acreage - at these prices, the well investment is not economic.
There are a couple of wild cards in the nat gas deck as well. One is always there, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. The other will be if there are LNG cargos to dump in the next little while. A fair bit of liquefaction capacity is coming online, and the project economics are often driven by the liquids stripped from the gas - dry gas cargos are something of a disposal problem in some respects.
"Side note...13X just exposes them FIRST and the rest are following right in line. "
The reason we are even IN line is because Cali's f'n idiots were willing to pay more than 3X. Anything over that, you can not afford the house. This astounding level of fiscal incompetence perpetuated the bubble, which otherwise would have ended rather quickly once the qualified and competent borrowers were depleted. Unfortunately for everyone, Cali has ample supply of the incompetent and unqualified.
I found tape and cutting boards made in USA at Walmart. I'm even finding school supplies made here at the grocery store. Ya'll aren't doing enough household shopping.
City asks applicants for Internet passwords Bozeman wants applicants to hand over passwords for Internet groups
Matt Gouras, Associated Press Writer
The city is asking job seekers for the user names and passwords to Internet social networking or Web groups to which they belong. The decision is sparking an outcry from those who say the policy goes way too far.
The issue has spawned hundreds of comments on Web forums and sharp criticism from legislators and the ACLU.
"I liken it to them saying they want to look at your love letters and your family photos," said Amy Cannata, with the American Civil Liberties Union of Montana. "I think this policy certainly crosses the privacy line."
The city argues that it only uses the information to verify application information -- and says it won't hold it against anyone for refusing to provide it. City officials say such checks can be useful, especially when hiring police officers and others in a position of public trust. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
WaPo column:
the president speaks favorably of "some initial reaction from the Supreme Leader that indicates he understands the Iranian people have deep concerns about the election."
...
Supreme Leader? WTF?
imagine McCain talking like this? I hear that 3 AM phone ringing...
Burn and Munch, you guys know the Circle Jerks? wow, saw them play at the Whiskey
in 80... but you guys haven't lived if you didn't see the Germs....
that is, before Darby Crash died of an overdose....
.....She be Gud, HomeGnome.......just had the best damned ice cream sundae EVER eaten. Using her milk (MilkShake's), her whipped cream, her ice cream, strawberries & peaches from the garden, and sweet breads from the Mrs makes one helluva breakfast.
For those who like quoting Fox BS, this this podcast with Korea expert Dr. Bruce Cumings is an antidote full of insight regarding American utter impotence vis-à-vis nuclear North Korea.
"Lockhart also said yesterday that his agency, the companies’ regulator, is looking at ways for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help the so-called warehouse lending market, which provides financing to smaller, independent mortgage companies, amid a credit crunch. "
Smaller, independent mortgage companies like First Magnus:
"First Magnus bundled and sold mortgages to warehouse lenders without keeping cash reserves that it was obligated to have in the event that the loan was returned, Welton said.
When the loans began to fail, there was nothing for the warehouse lenders, such as Washington Mutual, to recoup, he said. Between January 2005 and August 2007, when it filed for bankruptcy, First Magnus made $70 billion worth of loans, Welton said."
This is exactly the type of company we want to support.
"Honestly, with the super-low interest rates, 4x was probably manageable. Naturally, it's a terrible deal, but that didn't stop people...."
Yeah, the problem with that is what about 4.1? 4.2? and on Cali went to 13x. It is just the S&L crisis on a far, far grander scale. Let's review. What states were the primary components of S&L? Cali, Texas, Florida, Georgia. Nevada, and Arizona. And in this crisis? The same players of course. Whoops except Texas who took the view that we did not want to go on this ride again, and established some defined lending standards, like 3x income.
First Magnus bundled and sold mortgages to warehouse lenders without keeping cash reserves that it was obligated to have in the event that the loan was returned, Welton said.
When the loans began to fail, there was nothing for the warehouse lenders, such as Washington Mutual, to recoup, he said. Between January 2005 and August 2007, when it filed for bankruptcy, First Magnus made $70 billion worth of loans, Welton said."
Infinite leverage! What on Earth could possibly go wrong with that plan?
Next time they will ask your promise to "check" your wife or your boy if it is a catholic firm But hey, this is a brave new world and a worker is just all-flexible small cube of productivity on a excel chart. Cubes do not get to vote or have any rights. Cubes just better shut the fuck up.
Can anyone here state a consumer item 'Made in USA' that they have purchased within the last year.
A body pillow ! You can find a suprising number of things made in the US.. BUT you have to work at it a lot of times.
The sh#tmart type stores all carry exclusively made in the communist republic of China for the most part.
As a side note, anyone still remember when communism was bad an democracy was important ? You know before China started making cheap crap so screw democracy we can make a quick-buck.
Northwest Metal Products Co. (NorWesCo) is located 25 miles south of Seattle in Fife, Washington. NorWesCo is a state-of-the-art sheet metal manufacturing plant covering 320,000 square feet. (Seven acres under roof.) NorWesCo manufactures over 4000 items and employs approximately 200.
Washtubs, buckets, watercans, wheelbarrows, and other old and new-timey stuff.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 10:03 am
OT for this thread, but COTD has published a chart which gives another perspective on the inflation-adjusted Dow. This sort of complements the dshort.com chart...
Then consider the survivor bias, e.g. where are the Bethlehem Steels now?
Buy and hold only works no longer than the company surviving.
Of course there were dividends, probably the only real return on the index.
PS - Continues today - Where would Dow be if GM was still in there?
Oh, jeez, I could write an essay. But briefly: a small population, so limited local market, higher shipping and handling costs. Not much industry, partly due to local attitudes, but also because of geographic isolation. Existing industry is traditionally called "farming, fishing, and forestry." Fishing is in the tank, farming not so hot, horticulture and forestry products tied to the real estate debacle. Add in a dysfunctional tax scheme, and a general hostility to all business, not just industry, plus a disinclination to acquire or even fund a good education, plus half the land Federally owned, and you've got all the elements for a bad scene.
The only world-class famous industries are Nike and Intel, concentrated in Washington County and not growing much, so that doesn't help the rest of the state. Basically, once you get out of the Portland metro area, the state is practically empty by East Coast standards. No jobs, no people. No people, no jobs.
The same thing goes on in local government. They may not call it that but it does happen. Whenever a local government allows a Corporate firm to get a tax free incentive to bring their plant to a town that is bribery. I'm sure many small town or city politicians who have dreams of higher office consider how these firms that they allow into their communities for these tax incentives, will eventually want to rep
recommended : Econ & Finance Articles
When elected government officials secretly collude with bankers to create a non-governmental Federal Reserve Bank that controls the currency of the country and systematically generates inflation to allow government to spend at an ever increasing rate.
Taxing citizens to create bureaucratic government agencies and programs that fail to accomplish their mission while continuing to grow in size as politicians use them to reward the contributors to their re-election campaigns.
lots of news today and i know ga is one of those states w/o looking.
cr you do very good work for us
Have individual states changed their definitions of unemployment over time, just as they have at the federal level?
not too familiar with BLS terminology. Is there a difference between unemployment rate and jobless rate?
not looking good for j6p
Jobless rate rises in nearly all states - Jun. 19, 2009
Jobless rate rises in nearly all states
Green Shoots abound. This means that State government will have to be grown to prevent UE from sliding further. More jobs coming!
Yeah, South Carolina tied for third!
With our 56% high school grad rate; things couldn't be better
Looking more like a depression every day.
Hooocooodanode?
Just wait until this summer, when states and cities cut services and headcount or the Chinese and Japanese stiff Obama for bailing states and cities out.
Yes, as one clever CR poster put it, we may have a 'Summer of Love' before us.
12-States with a REAL unemployment 2X U-3......those are Depression figures, Folks! You can color it any old way you want, but it still comes out as "chocolate brown".
"The (state UE) spike comes a month after the unemployment rate declined in 21 states in April."
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 10:14 am
Green Shoots abound. This means that State government will have to be grown to prevent UE from sliding further. More jobs coming!
Jobs are the new credit! The more useless and higher-paying the better.
I just want the world to not end before the end of June, when we close the sale of our house.
at least we have a free market!
8.2% in Arizona. But we have allot of contract workers that aren't counted. And allot of Mexican nationals went home last year - not counted either.
Getting down to business...
"Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has said legislative leaders are going to need fortitude to eliminate California's $24.3 billion budget deficit with deep cuts to cherished programs.
To help with that, the governor sent Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg a metal sculpture of bull testicles, intended as a gag gift."
Basel
Many articles seem to use UE and jobless interchangeably so they must be the same... ?
I think a better metric for Michigan is that we have lost over 800,000 jobs (mostly manufacturing) in the last seven years and have had negative YoY job growth since 2001.
It's prison rules out here.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 10:23 am
Many articles seem to use UE and jobless interchangeably so they must be the same... ?
Another page from the Goebbels playbook. Weakness is strength. Resistance is... well, you know.
this was from a comment in the Times....
I have been cautiously optimistic that President Obama would hold his Administration’s financial regulatory plan to the transparency he talks so eloquently about. Where is the transparency with hedge funds, one of the largest contributors to the meltdown? Another major player was the rating agencies –– how can we be comfortable that that problem will not recur? Has compensation dropped off the table? Incentives influence results so lets encourage the goose to lay golden eggs, not lead balloons.
I retired early from the Bank of America and what I considered a lead parachute in 1992 has melted into a dead weight with Kenneth Lewis, a mergers & acquisitions guy, still in charge. I’m not surprised, just sadly disappointed.
— Posted by Hal Harber
I''m sure Hal wont' mind on the repost
11:28aBREAKING NEWS
Moody's may downgrade California 'A2' rating
May's over with it's june...typical rating agency props...
got pigged earlier but thought this needs to be said:
energyecon wrote:
Think about that final line in the context of current availability of credit for ag investment, and internal focus of developed economies dealing with their own...'issues' - recall the fertilizer manufacturers shutting in more capacity story of a couple days back
World hunger reaches the 1 billion people mark.
thanks for the posting... I see it just about fifty feet from where I write this, women with their babies living on the street...
that's why I get a bit fed up with so much boo-hooing Stateside... come to Asia and I'll show what it means to live day by day....
you have no idea how good you have it!!
and no snark in that line...
OT / and a repost! hey one more hilarious YouTube vib (has nearly 2 million hits...)
YouTube - Old woman shoots MP40 Machine gun Grandma Shoots MP40 machine gun....
listen to grandma's accent,
if that was a picture of BHO up there on the target
I bet'cha granny would've never taken her finger off that trigger
creditcriminalslovetarp (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 10:32 am
Moody's may downgrade California 'A2' rating
Put a tarp over this one, it's starting to reek.
To help with that, the governor sent Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg a metal sculpture of bull testicles, intended as a gag gift."
did he pay for the gift out of his own pocket or was it charged to the State?
Even if CA can cut it's deficit for THIS year...2010 will be a real eye opener. As for the other49.......TOAST. They just will not admit they too are CA....just not yet. The green shoots are going bad and are now starting to smell up the joint.
very interesting comment in the China Daily about Iran....
....
Conceivably, Hu would have discussed the Iran situation with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev during his official visit to Moscow that followed the SCO summit. Earlier, Moscow welcomed Ahmadinejad's re-election. Both China and Russia abhor "color" revolutions, especially something as intriguing as Twitter, which Moscow came across a few months ago in Moldova and raises hackles about the US's interventionist global strategy.
China anticipated the backlash against Ahmadinejad's victory. On Monday, The Global Times newspaper quoted the former Chinese ambassador to Iran, Hua Liming, that the Iranian situation would get back to normalcy only if a negotiated agreement was reached among the "major centers of political power ... But, if not, the recent turmoil in Thailand will possibly be repeated". It is quite revealing that the veteran Chinese diplomat drew a parallel with Thailand.
Thailand... now there's a subject quite close to home for me... guess they're seeing it through the lens of countryside peasants versus city bourgeoisie...
once you've had one cultural revolution you can never think anew....
U6 is 7 percent higher, nationally. I couldn't locate the Cali U6, but it's at least that much higher than the U3 of 11.4 --- so around 18.4. Last October there was a general expection (among CR bloggers) that we would be seeing a U6 approaching 20 by end 2009. At least a dozen states are going to meet expectations.
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Record breaking unemployment is a green shoot. Employment always bottoms during a recovery. Yay!
breaking news
were going to intercept that frigate...shit...
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/19/military-set-intercept-north-korean-ship-suspected-proliferatin-missiles-nukes/
Yep, I still have a job but a zillion of us don't and will never see that type of pay again. I feel for those under 40 because you are going to have about 50 jobs in your life time with no way to build some $. We will finally slip in to the world that uncle milton freidman set in motion maybe 5% control 95% of $ of this nation and always at war.
jo6pac
Everything is on schedule, please move along
Comrade Misean is Dope (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 10:42 am
Record breaking unemployment is a green shoot. Employment always bottoms during a recovery. Yay!
Good point. Bottom... bottom... bottom... bottom...
Record breaking unemployment is a green shoot. Employment always bottoms during a recovery. Yay!
If you're happy today, you're going to be ecstatic next month. And then exuberant the month after. Blissful the next month. And so on and so forth.
"... Hu would have discussed the Iran situation with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev during his official visit to Moscow that followed the SCO summit..."
........that's just symbolic for media release ....China's foreign policy on mid-east region has been neutral , never changed .....the real discussion must be base currency isssue replacing $ ......
"thanks for the posting... I see it just about fifty feet from where I write this, women with their babies living on the street...
that's why I get a bit fed up with so much boo-hooing Stateside... come to Asia and I'll show what it means to live day by day....
you have no idea how good you have it!!"
Duke, what country or neck of the woods are you in, if you're comfortable in saying so? SE Asia somewhere?
And I agree with what you say about relative lifestyles -- but of course expectations are relative, too. A household with one car, ok health care, a secure living, a small but decent house with the basic modcons, decent clothing and a couple of common luxuries -- a good part of the the world would kill for that. Problem here in the states is that we have too much of some of these, not enough of the others, and more is being taken away.
Wait, is 14% unemployment bad? Not a green shoot?
And the obligatory...is this inflationary?
"Even if CA can cut it's deficit for THIS year...2010 will be a real eye opener. As for the other49.......TOAST. They just will not admit they too are CA....just not yet. The green shoots are going bad and are now starting to smell up the joint. "
CA is first and worst because its tax/revenue system has been off the rails for 30 years. When the economy sneezes, California goes to the ICU. Barring total breakdown, nobody's going to be as bad as California unless they, too, have been undertaxing and overspending for 30 years, and have severely limited the power of state governments both to take and to make cuts (by instituting many "protected" programs).
Wait, is 14% unemployment bad?
Depends on your outlook. Not as bad as 20% unemployment. You just have to accentuate the positive.
Ruling Cleric Warns Iranian Protesters
rich, where are you? what will this do to the price of oil?
I don't need a job, I need a refi!
Long Live Ponzi-nomics!
June 19 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama’s program to help more homeowners refinance may be expanded to include borrowers who owe more than 105 percent of their homes’ values, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said.
The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday.
"The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday."
If they allow 'buying' with an LTV of 125% (or higher) on a non-recourse loan, then RRE is bound to climb...
In the Metro Phx area we need re-fi loans for 150% of current value.
Values are down 30%+, alt mortgages with increase in pricipal owed. Plus all the fines and charges the lender adds on for cost to redo a loan. (not to mention the late and legal charges if you don't pay to get thier attention to get a loan mod.)
Lets not forget underemployed and discouraged workers who are not included in unemployment calculations. Broader unemployment measures are at 16.4%, and accelerating.
HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 10:59 am
The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday.
OK, This is insane. Between the government job factory, UE and bailouts to the irresponsible, stupid or outright criminal... I have no doubt it will surprise us all just how long they can keep this idiot circus going on borrowed money.
The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher
They're gonna need to keep the mortgage rates down if they want any takers.
This recession tracks the Great Depression - with Charts!
"Profs Eichengreen and O’Rourke describe this contrast. During the Great Depression, the weighted average discount rate of the seven leading economies never fell below 3 per cent. Today it is close to zero. Even the European Central Bank, most hawkish of the big central banks, has lowered its rate to 1 per cent. Again, during the Great Depression, money supply collapsed. But this time it has continued to rise. Indeed, the combination of strong monetary growth with deep recession raises doubts about the monetarist explanation for the Great Depression. Finally, fiscal policy has been far more aggressive this time. In the early 1930s the weighted average deficit for 24 significant countries remained smaller than 4 per cent of gross domestic product. Today, fiscal deficits will be far higher. In the US, the general government deficit is expected to be almost 14 per cent of GDP."
FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - The recession tracks the Great Depression
Outsider wrote:
Depends on your outlook. Not as bad as 20% unemployment. You just have to accentuate the positive.
Thanks for that. I feel better.
Option ARM
Lets not forget underemployed and discouraged workers who are not included in unemployment calculations. Broader unemployment measures are at 16.4%, and accelerating.
Self-employed. Self-employed. Self-employed. Hello. I'm hearing an echo.
Shadowstats show 20+% for U6 using the old calculations changed by Clinton to make the economy look better.
Clintion changed the way we figure CPI to lower increases to Social Security recip as well.
We have been living with "make it up as you go" numbers from the gov for a long time.
creditcriminalslovetarp (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 11:46 am
you would think if they were proliferating, they would be heading TO NK instead of TO Singapore... maybe they better hold off... and see what they bring back and not what they are taking...
IMHmilitaryO
What percentage of home buyers are using traditional 30 yr. mortgages, and what percentage are using ARMs or other non-traditional loans? Has it changed at all? Just curious.
@ Outsider.
Those folks at CR are good, I tell ya.
New Mortgage Loan Reset / Recast Chart
"They just will not admit they too are CA"
You mean states OTHER than Cali were had homeowners borrowing at 13x annual income? I somehow doubt that. Only Cali had the suicidal level of hubris and crazy justifying THAT level of insanity. Granted Florida, Nevada and Arizona were in the same ballpark, but only California gets the pennant for most stupid mo-fo's
If we can hold on until October, the will be tens of thousands falling off the unemployment rolls each month and the UE numbers will look much better.
Just my thought about 30yr vs ARM loans.
It depends on where the real estate is. Ca, Az, Nv, Fl, lots of ARMs.
And then you need to know how many with 30yr fixed got 2nds or HELOCs on top of the 1st.
I think most people have woken up. If they can qualify for a refi, they take a 30yr fixed.
"but only California gets the pennant for most stupid mo-fo's"
Certainly the most. NY is definitely giving us a run in the 'most dysfunctional state government' though.
Actually HomeGnome I was thinking more of what loan products are being used by today's buyer. As in, are people still able to get risky loans? Are they still going that route? I'm wondering how the loan products offered have changed in the past, oh, 6 months. What's propping up today's buying market.
F Doodie,
It seems a were going to make that crazy old man make a choice to back his word or not....he's not the most stable guy....
125% LTV ...the children of tomorrow are being dealt the worst hand
People Are Smart
Ditech - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
@ Outsider
I tried man, I tried...
"Certainly the most. NY is definitely giving us a run in the 'most dysfunctional state government' though."
I'd be inclined to bash on NY on occasion and I surely would not want to live there, but they have a habit of producing some pretty stellar AG's
i agree, seems we are provoking , because Il said last week that if we tried to stop any ship he would consider it an act of war...now we decide (to threaten) to stop a ship that is leaving with proliferating... seems pretty ballsy on our part...
outsider: as of 11/2008, based on McDash's reporting
Type, number, percent
Fixed 28,419,375 82.5%
ARMs 5,966,195 17.3%
ARM/Buydown 7,937 0.0%
GPM 783 0.0%
Buydown/Subsidy 43,852 0.1%
GPM Buydown 8 0.0%
Other 1,029 0.0%
Just how many "wars" should america be involved in?
New Axis of Evil:
FED
Treasury
Glodman Sacs
@ Basel
Nice work.
California has Gerry Brown, who was no slouch on the Paris Hilton case
(by the Circle J erks, 80s punk band)
in a sluggish econo-mee
inflation, recession
hits the land of the free
standing in unemployment lines
blame the government for hard times
we just get by
however we can
we all gotta duck
when the shit hits the fan
10 kids in a cadillac [update for 2000's: Escalade]
stand in lines for welfare checks
let's all leach off the state
gee! the money's really great!
soup lines
free loaves of bread
5lb blocks of cheese
bags of groceries
social security
has run out on you and me
we do whatever we can
gotta duck when the shit hits the fan
Rather Ironic:
FDA: Don't Eat Toll House Refrigerated Cookie Dough
The company said the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control are investigating reported E. coli illnesses that might be related to the ingestion of raw cookie dough.
The company says consumers should not eat raw cookie dough and that such a warning is featured on its packaging.
The recall includes refrigerated cookie bar dough, cookie dough tub, cookie dough tubes, limited edition cookie dough items, seasonal cookie dough and Ultimates cookie bar dough.
Toll House makes you sick!
It did not have to be 13X to be f'in stupid. No income makes 1X a biotch....Welcome to the depression. Side note...13X just exposes them FIRST and the rest are following right in line.
Burn, government cheese is NASTY!
I wish
They would just let all the underwater loans default.
Those that can't pay the mortgage would walk away.
The lenders would get real on pricing REO properties.
The people with deep pockets would scoop up the REOs and rent them to the people who should have always been renters.
ALL the stuff on everyones balance sheets (shadow, dark, off the books) should be put on the books, in the open.
I want every penny of every dime the Fed spent, gaurenteed, loaned or just gave away accounted for, by firm and use.
We can not go forward without taking out the mountain of trash in front of the door. Just be done with shoving the bags around and let it go. Then we can pick up the pieces and get on with things.
I'm sorry. Millions of people will lose billions or trillion or zillions of dollars. It was a bubble and everyone blew and blew and blew. The ballon exploded. Those are the facts. The sooner we deal with the facts the better.
Rant over. And - no I don't feel better.
" jo6pac (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 8:49 am
We will finally slip in to the world that uncle milton freidman set in motion maybe 5% control 95% of $ of this nation and always at war."
Good post, only partially right, though, this was set in motion with in 1913 with the Federal Reserve Act. But your premise is correct, we will inevitably move towards serfdom. There is no other way out given the institutions we have in place. I just hope the process is slow during my lifetime.
82% are fixed rate buyers then. And that was last Nov., I bet the % is higher now for fixed raters.
Does not bode well if fixed rates keep rising. This will be interesting.
Bucky fell outa bed....
INO Equities Stocks Indexes - U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX) Price Chart and Quote
@josap.
I agree.
Oh, the nice people from the Ministry of Truth are here to pick me up for my visit to the GreenShoots Education Camp.
"refinance may be expanded to include borrowers who owe more than 105 percent of their homes’ value"
'More than'??? Wow...that's sickening. Must be why they're putting the memoratorium on foreclosures..so they can pull off something as morally bankrupt as this
At what point are unemployment and lower incomes not lagging indicators, but leading indicators? My guess is that people don't really stop spending until they lose their jobs and lose their income. Then they take a machete to spending.
allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher,
OR higher?
How much freaking higher can we go?
Times sure have changed:
YouTube -
Bankers ate the brown acid.
"I just hope the process is slow during my lifetime. "
I hope to join the 5%.
A little more on topic
What could people make, and sell to each other at a small profit?
The point being that a solution to UE must be both simple, and also be based on the reality of reduced expectations.
Obviously we need more pizza places, tanning booths and nail salons in places like the Inland Empire.
@BURN
-- I hope to join the 5%.--
That should have read: "...the world that uncle milton freidman set in motion maybe 0.5% control 99.5% of $"...
Dollar thing has to be Korea. PMs haven't really reacted, at least not yet. Watch silver, doing a pretty little bear wedge back to 14.50
Scrooge,
good catch...exactly what is going to happen...what a joke..joes rant above is dead on also...I'm going to award myself a tax holiday...
Oregon unemployment 12.4%, second highest in nation. And that's the average, it's over 15% in my county alone.
State unemployment hits highest mark in 33 years
Burn: nice Circle Jerks reference. Let's go do some crimes. Let's get sushi and not pay.
Candles?
Scrapbooks?
Prague Spring in Teheran?
In his first public response to days of mass protests, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sternly warned opposition supporters on Friday to stay off the streets and raised the prospect of violence if the defiant, vast demonstrations continued. (NY Times)
sounds like we are close to the theocratic form of the Breshnev Doctrine... August 20, 1968, anyone?
Saw this at Zerohedge:
June 19 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama’s program to help more homeowners refinance may be expanded to include borrowers who owe more than 105 percent of their homes’ values, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said.
The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday.
More bailouts for speculators...
"More bailouts for speculators... "
As someone else said, only 105 percent?
What good's that gonna do?
@Duke
-- Prague Spring in Teheran? --
Could it be that Geithner et. al. hopes that the opposition gets put down? Could set a bad example for the BBAD.
dont you believe it (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 11:30 am
@BURN
-- I hope to join the 5%.--
That should have read: "...the world that uncle milton freidman set in motion maybe 0.5% control 99.5% of $"...
That 4.5% are the real dopes who allowed the 0.5% the power they have, under the pretense they would all get rich together. Well, it's true, many got rich. But they are gradually discovering that some rich are richer than others.
"The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday."
No question in my mind this will be allowed to happen. I am surprised it hasn't happened yet.
This is all part of the plan to move debt out of the private sector and onto the shoulders of the govt (or better yet, monetize it) The purpose is not to give homeowners relief, but to move what is left of the mortgages in toxic assets and/or bank balance sheets into fannie/freddie/fha MBS where the Fed will buy it and turn it into money.
The govt knows well that the US will never be downgraded, and is betting our trading partners have no choice but to keep buying our debt, and we will be able to inflate it away over time.
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 9:04 am
This recession tracks the Great Depression - with Charts!
You might be interested to know that this spring I attended a lecture by one of the authors (Eichengreen) and he used several of CR's graphs in the presentation.
He's a regular here.
-- Prague Spring in Teheran? --
Unpredictable.
However I doubt there is any playbook called Operation Iranie Freedom at this time.
These days we are far too real-politik to hope for freedom and democracy.
--bh
Clearly we are seeing a jobless recovery.
The term "jobless recovery" actually means "banksters are fine they'll get bonuses this year no matter how f'ked up the rest of the economy is".
No income makes 1X a biotch
No income makes 1X a breeze. No income makes 1X free. I think I can live with a house with no mortgage.
I miss elvis.
Florida is only #6 in unemployment.
Whoooo Hoooo.
Damn, if their U-3 looks like this, is there a state by state breakout of their U-6?! That has to be in the fugly realm...
OT: Obama Administration pushes IMF gold sales through House
Mineweb - WHATS NEW - Obama Administration pushes IMF gold sales through House by tieing it to security bill
(I'm sure China and Russia are wetting their chops)
being sarky earlier in other comments but I have learned more about RE in the last 10 months on CR than in the course of my entire life...
plus, the other info filled in the large holes in my brain that once were filled say 15-20 years ago (the Albert Hall thing)...
,,,
but I will say that this blog has been very helpful and influencing to others, I for one,
report via email every 7 to 10 days about the unemployment situation to a major East coast columnist
who has taken a strong wonkish interest in BLS data, birth death, etc...
so my many thanks to everyone... esp. CR!
in order to maintain an agnostic or may I even say a Jesuitical approach I do not read the columns produced by said person(s)...
but the questions I get in return are a fair gauge of some influence...
the duke
125% ltv ratios, are nice (I guess) but wouldn't help the client who came
in to day who would need about 200%!!
A typical Juana 6 pack, but who is coming to realize that walking away is better.
125% OR HIGHER!
@picosec
Did the lecture offer any insights or predictions as to when certain breakdowns will to start to occur? also, did they start to use the term 'depression'?
Scone, why is Oregon hurting worse than Fla?
-- Prague Spring in Teheran? --
We cannot get involved. A softly-softly approach is needed otherwise you'll rob reformers of any legitimacy as the other side will scream they're just puppets of the great satan, little-satan, zionists etc. This is something the Iranian people themselves need to resolve, they did it in 1979 they should be able to do it again.
"The govt knows well that the US will never be downgraded, and is betting our trading partners have no choice but to keep buying our debt, and we will be able to inflate it away over time."
Wanna bet? TIC numbers are showing otherwise already...
Scone, why is Oregon hurting worse than Fla?
Everybody in OR was already suffering from S.A.D.
Now they have a reason to be depressed.
I still say if they want people to refi even at 125% of value, they're going to have to keep the fixed rates down. Can they do this?
"The govt knows well that the US will never be downgraded, and is betting our trading partners have no choice but to keep buying our debt, and we will be able to inflate it away over time."
That'll work as long as our bondholders keep thinking that "we're too big to fail". They might not fall for that BS as easily as the last two administrations have.
@ iceman
I've been saying for a while that unemployment shifts to a leading indicator when private sector debt levels are high... and of course right now they are in the stratosphere
Zack attack
Be careful with Silver. Silver outperformed gold for the first time this past few months unusual and always quite bearish for silver price relative to gold. I'd sell silver here and buy gold if you want to stay within the PM space.
Transports getting slapped around again...
"I still say if they want people to refi even at 125% of value, they're going to have to keep the fixed rates down. Can they do this?"
If you can still refit at 125% why stop there !! I'd like to refi at 400% LTV. Of course then I'll be heading off down to Mexico and mailing some keys back.
on a side note and I'll say no more... 32 years ago my girlfriend in CA Roxanne M.'s father was the Shah's personal physician....
the smart money had been moving their assets out of Iran for years, they knew the Shah was a goner! Her family had a house in
DC and a brand new home in Tiberon... of course she drove a Mercedes 280 SL... UCB....
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 12:42 pm replyIgnore user
wrt IMF gold sales.... I know that russia and china both have been buying up gold for over a year now. I am afraid that they might try and establish a "world currency " back by a gold standard. That would wipe out our fiat currency over night. We might as well have pesos.
we would have to rein in trillions in currency to match our gold reserves..... can you imagine how hard it would be for the govt to bail out themselves with worthless treasuries...
"The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday."
BTW, even the current program, refinancing loans up to 105 ltv, is illegal under current law.
Under the GSE charters, they can only purchase loans with ltvs 80 or under without mortgage insurance or other credit enhancement. These refinances have neither.
Basically Lockhart got an opinion that these were really "modifications" and thus were not subject to the charter restrictions.
But these are new loans - the borrower is getting a new note, and the old one is paid off.
No one who is affected cares enough to challenge this interpretation, and Congress doesn't want to open the GSE charters at this time anyway.
Yet another example of the Obama administration ignoring the laws of Congress where appropriate.
FHFA Director Lockhart’s Twisted Fannie and Freddie Logic -- Seeking Alpha
@ ghost
The law doesn't really matter to the powers that be; do they?
"If you can still refit at 125% why stop there !! I'd like to refi at 400% LTV."
I actually do not understand why they would stop at 125. The 105 restriction is due to the standard documents in their MBS. But the Fed has already killed the MBS market, so who cares?
Bingo. If any specuvestor actually benefits that is a bug, not a feature...
125% OR HIGHER!!!
FD
IMO and many others russia is in no position to be est a new reserve currency. Look at palladium prices lots of dumping. Could be selling palladium to buy gold
-- "The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday." --
The Obama Administration would be better off to develop a 'Marshall Plan' for the USA.
Can anyone here state a consumer item 'Made in USA' that they have purchased within the last year. I can only think of a very few personally, and those have no broad market penetration.
Seriously, what is gonna fix UE? Services?
kilroy sez:
I've been saying for a while that unemployment shifts to a leading indicator when private sector debt levels are high... and of course right now they are in the stratosphere.
Could you elaborate? Interesting idea...
These would be the U-3 figures, for a more accurate reflection of employment stress, the U-6 would be another 50% higher.
Seriously, what is gonna fix UE? Services?
Obama's volunteer program!
@Scrooge
It was a very "CR" lecture. No surprises if you've been following posts here.
NOTE: I'm referring primarily to CR's posts, not us wing-nut commenters
Russia can't force a new reserve currency on their own.
They need China, Brazil, Japan, and OPEC on board.
It will take a while to that to happen. Maybe 10-20 years?
"Seriously, what is gonna fix UE? Services? "
Just like Russians and other former Soviets in the 90's, it starts from home garden and with bartering and local markets.
There is a group of us here who have been banging that drum for months - UE (particularly U-6 and continuing claims) is a leading indicator for consumer credit default rates and prime mortgage distress - lessee, Rob Dawg were you one of the others?
Timmy,
you may just be right.
But then again, this is america and we are special.
aren't we?
Can anyone here state a consumer item 'Made in USA' that they have purchased within the last year.
Quarter pounder at McDonald's yesterday.
Got the latest stats
"This sucker is going down"
The forty eight cried
Dirk posted this in his email "Lots More Gas" yesterday..."In terms of energy content, there is a 6:1 ratio between an MCF of gas and a barrel of oil. At the current futures price of $4.12 an MCF, natural gas is going for the equivalent of only $24.72 a barrel, a massive discount to the current $71.06 price of oil. This will make a very significant difference to your energy investments." Also, "domestic Natural Gas reserves are 35% higher than previously estimated due to improved ability to tap deep shale deposits"...switching to NG could be a reasonable use of cash for business investment. There are already NG cars on the road in the US.
-- Quarter pounder at McDonald's yesterday. --
Did you eat it in your car? 100% 'Made in USA' content? I thought the beef was Brazil/Argentina.
OT for this thread, but COTD has published a chart which gives another perspective on the inflation-adjusted Dow. This sort of complements the dshort.com chart...
Chart of the Day - Inflation-adjusted Dow up 30% from 1966 peak — Chart
Tim and coinz,
China and venezula and India and OPEC would jump on board as would others as a creating a gold backed currency wouldnt have to be any harder than creating the euro. That hold up was more political. But even they have capital standards we cant meet. They could get enough folks that would agree that they would rather peg with gold than US IOU's....
"I thought the beef was Brazil/Argentina. "
You thought it was beef?
@don't - there's real beef in them? hoocooda...
I thought the beef was Brazil/Argentina.
Point taken.
Large fry, too, then.
Americas' Day of Reckoning is coming.
and OT:
My name is Gnome and I am a Burger King cheeseburger addict.
Hey, they're only $1.25 each.
No fries or soda though.
Part of the problem with states is that they're too many of them. We don't need two states with gambling, for example. So divest New Jersey. Florida? Please. A lot more could be cut as well.
"But then again, this is america and we are special.
aren't we? "
In the history arrogance and laziness were always cured by hunger
Or by suicide.
The problem is obtaining the additional investment required to switch...
Plus, the cost differential has to go away to make the shale deposits economic to tap. The only shale nat gas drilling programs underway at the moment are the absolute minimum required to retain acreage - at these prices, the well investment is not economic.
There are a couple of wild cards in the nat gas deck as well. One is always there, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. The other will be if there are LNG cargos to dump in the next little while. A fair bit of liquefaction capacity is coming online, and the project economics are often driven by the liquids stripped from the gas - dry gas cargos are something of a disposal problem in some respects.
McDonald's uses "100% Real Beef"(tm).
I am led to believe from HomeGnome and broward that the solution to USA's UE problem is the development of the steering-wheel tray-table.
Questions on the Obama refi proposal:
"Side note...13X just exposes them FIRST and the rest are following right in line. "
The reason we are even IN line is because Cali's f'n idiots were willing to pay more than 3X. Anything over that, you can not afford the house. This astounding level of fiscal incompetence perpetuated the bubble, which otherwise would have ended rather quickly once the qualified and competent borrowers were depleted. Unfortunately for everyone, Cali has ample supply of the incompetent and unqualified.
"Can anyone here state a consumer item 'Made in USA' that they have purchased within the last year."
....does a galvanized steel 3-gallon feed bucket count?
@ Don't
5' 7"
140 lbs.
It ain't me babe, no, no, no.
It ain't me you;re looking for, babe.
@ BSR
How's Milkshake?
"The reason we are even IN line is because Cali's f'n idiots were willing to pay more than 3X. Anything over that, you can not afford the house."
Honestly, with the super-low interest rates, 4x was probably manageable. Naturally, it's a terrible deal, but that didn't stop people....
I found tape and cutting boards made in USA at Walmart. I'm even finding school supplies made here at the grocery store. Ya'll aren't doing enough household shopping.
-- ....does a galvanized steel 3-gallon feed bucket count? --
Hell yes! Who made that?
Klein handtools, and Bridgeport machines count too.
OT: Sehr interessant:
Zero Hedge: US Set To Intercept North Korean Ship Suspected Of Proliferating Nukes
City asks applicants for Internet passwords
Bozeman wants applicants to hand over passwords for Internet groups
Matt Gouras, Associated Press Writer
The city is asking job seekers for the user names and passwords to Internet social networking or Web groups to which they belong. The decision is sparking an outcry from those who say the policy goes way too far.
The issue has spawned hundreds of comments on Web forums and sharp criticism from legislators and the ACLU.
"I liken it to them saying they want to look at your love letters and your family photos," said Amy Cannata, with the American Civil Liberties Union of Montana. "I think this policy certainly crosses the privacy line."
The city argues that it only uses the information to verify application information -- and says it won't hold it against anyone for refusing to provide it. City officials say such checks can be useful, especially when hiring police officers and others in a position of public trust.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"City asks applicants for Internet passwords"
It's when I see stuff like this that I think revolution may actually be a possibility.
WaPo column:
the president speaks favorably of "some initial reaction from the Supreme Leader that indicates he understands the Iranian people have deep concerns about the election."
...
Supreme Leader? WTF?
imagine McCain talking like this? I hear that 3 AM phone ringing...
Burn and Munch, you guys know the Circle Jerks? wow, saw them play at the Whiskey
in 80... but you guys haven't lived if you didn't see the Germs....
that is, before Darby Crash died of an overdose....
.....She be Gud, HomeGnome.......just had the best damned ice cream sundae EVER eaten. Using her milk (MilkShake's), her whipped cream, her ice cream, strawberries & peaches from the garden, and sweet breads from the Mrs makes one helluva breakfast.
energyecon,
Agree with your points. The time horizon for any meaningful shift in energy usage is long.
For those who like quoting Fox BS, this this podcast with Korea expert Dr. Bruce Cumings is an antidote full of insight regarding American utter impotence vis-à-vis nuclear North Korea.
Electric Politics | EP Podcast: A Single Minded Interlocutor
This is equally as good:
"Lockhart also said yesterday that his agency, the companies’ regulator, is looking at ways for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help the so-called warehouse lending market, which provides financing to smaller, independent mortgage companies, amid a credit crunch. "
Smaller, independent mortgage companies like First Magnus:
First Magnus executives are sued for $1 billion | Welcome to StarNet - Tucson, Arizona ®
"First Magnus bundled and sold mortgages to warehouse lenders without keeping cash reserves that it was obligated to have in the event that the loan was returned, Welton said.
When the loans began to fail, there was nothing for the warehouse lenders, such as Washington Mutual, to recoup, he said. Between January 2005 and August 2007, when it filed for bankruptcy, First Magnus made $70 billion worth of loans, Welton said."
This is exactly the type of company we want to support.
@BSR.
Very good, sir.
Carry on.
Using her milk (MilkShake's), her whipped cream, her ice cream, strawberries & peaches from the garden, and sweet breads from the Mrs
Stop it, I'm getting an erection.
@skylockracy
Are you saying this story about a naval interception is not true?
"Honestly, with the super-low interest rates, 4x was probably manageable. Naturally, it's a terrible deal, but that didn't stop people...."
Yeah, the problem with that is what about 4.1? 4.2? and on Cali went to 13x. It is just the S&L crisis on a far, far grander scale. Let's review. What states were the primary components of S&L? Cali, Texas, Florida, Georgia. Nevada, and Arizona. And in this crisis? The same players of course. Whoops except Texas who took the view that we did not want to go on this ride again, and established some defined lending standards, like 3x income.
Ibex Clothes - made in USA, great stuff.
Pearl izumi bike shorts
SRAM bike group
"Whoops except Texas who took the view that we did not want to go on this ride again, and established some defined lending standards, like 3x income."
Oh cummon BH. It's accepted, conventional wisdom that we're all a bunch of hicks down here...
First Magnus bundled and sold mortgages to warehouse lenders without keeping cash reserves that it was obligated to have in the event that the loan was returned, Welton said.
When the loans began to fail, there was nothing for the warehouse lenders, such as Washington Mutual, to recoup, he said. Between January 2005 and August 2007, when it filed for bankruptcy, First Magnus made $70 billion worth of loans, Welton said."
Infinite leverage! What on Earth could possibly go wrong with that plan?
You should get out more, broward.
"City asks applicants for Internet passwords"
Next time they will ask your promise to "check" your wife or your boy if it is a catholic firm
But hey, this is a brave new world and a worker is just all-flexible small cube of productivity on a excel chart. Cubes do not get to vote or have any rights. Cubes just better shut the fuck up.
Give it all to our Dear CEO! Long Live C-E-O!
Can anyone here state a consumer item 'Made in USA' that they have purchased within the last year.
A body pillow ! You can find a suprising number of things made in the US.. BUT you have to work at it a lot of times.
The sh#tmart type stores all carry exclusively made in the communist republic of China for the most part.
As a side note, anyone still remember when communism was bad an democracy was important ? You know before China started making cheap crap so screw democracy we can make a quick-buck.
Northwest Metal Products Co. (NorWesCo) is located 25 miles south of Seattle in Fife, Washington. NorWesCo is a state-of-the-art sheet metal manufacturing plant covering 320,000 square feet. (Seven acres under roof.) NorWesCo manufactures over 4000 items and employs approximately 200.
Washtubs, buckets, watercans, wheelbarrows, and other old and new-timey stuff.
Norwesco Company Profile
sm_landlord (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 10:03 am
OT for this thread, but COTD has published a chart which gives another perspective on the inflation-adjusted Dow. This sort of complements the dshort.com chart...
Then consider the survivor bias, e.g. where are the Bethlehem Steels now?
Buy and hold only works no longer than the company surviving.
Of course there were dividends, probably the only real return on the index.
PS - Continues today - Where would Dow be if GM was still in there?
Scone, why is Oregon hurting worse than Fla? - LL
Oh, jeez, I could write an essay. But briefly: a small population, so limited local market, higher shipping and handling costs. Not much industry, partly due to local attitudes, but also because of geographic isolation. Existing industry is traditionally called "farming, fishing, and forestry." Fishing is in the tank, farming not so hot, horticulture and forestry products tied to the real estate debacle. Add in a dysfunctional tax scheme, and a general hostility to all business, not just industry, plus a disinclination to acquire or even fund a good education, plus half the land Federally owned, and you've got all the elements for a bad scene.
The only world-class famous industries are Nike and Intel, concentrated in Washington County and not growing much, so that doesn't help the rest of the state. Basically, once you get out of the Portland metro area, the state is practically empty by East Coast standards. No jobs, no people. No people, no jobs.
The same thing goes on in local government. They may not call it that but it does happen. Whenever a local government allows a Corporate firm to get a tax free incentive to bring their plant to a town that is bribery. I'm sure many small town or city politicians who have dreams of higher office consider how these firms that they allow into their communities for these tax incentives, will eventually want to rep
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When elected government officials secretly collude with bankers to create a non-governmental Federal Reserve Bank that controls the currency of the country and systematically generates inflation to allow government to spend at an ever increasing rate.
Taxing citizens to create bureaucratic government agencies and programs that fail to accomplish their mission while continuing to grow in size as politicians use them to reward the contributors to their re-election campaigns.