Like mp says, we've stabilized and are settling into the horizontal part of the L-shaped recovery.
Please remain in your seat with your seat belts fastened.
Well, go figure....rents continue to decrease and the difference between renting and owning yawns wider than ever in the Bay Area. This makes no sense to me.
"Like mp says, we've stabilized and are settling into the horizontal part of the L-shaped recovery.
Please remain in your seat with your seat belts fastened. "
Is this going to be like flying over the plains, where you fly and fly and yet nothing seems to change when you look out the window?
all bay area needs to do is wait for that internet company that keeps losing money to go public. You know which one....the one that's overhired and overhyped. Perhaps appeared on a magazine cover or tv program. The one that's the next craze.
Oop couldn't connect just now. Perhaps we can have one of those 'twitter is currently unavailable' screen....you know the one with the ice cream cone saying 'chill'. but maybe with the mortgage pig saying 'you've been pigged'
well, the bay area has much higher proportion of IT related jobs, and those in general pay more than construction & service jobs down the coast. So, all of those people who couldn't afford RE because they took their time to evaluate their real Cash Flows are now rushing in.
In addition, I doubt many businesses could afford to cut on their current software as easy as their payroll. All hail annual license business model!
Like mp says, we've stabilized and are settling into the horizontal part of the L-shaped recovery.
If you look at the best composite indicator of the economic activity in the US - the Chicago Fed National Activity Index - you will see that the "stabilization" means the pace of decline changed from -3.7 ~ -3.5 in Jan-March to -2.6 in April. This is the level of decline from August of last year. It is still worse than the worst decline level in the previous three recessions (2001, 1990-1991 and 1980-1982)
We have yet to reach the bottom of this recession, any talk about recovery is way premature. Of course, local stories can vary, but at the national level we are very much in a deep recession still.
We have yet to reach the bottom of this recession, any talk about recovery is way premature. Of course, local stories can vary, but at the national level we are very much in a deep recession still.
Looks like someone is going to be heading to Green Shoot Reeducation Camp this summer.
Sold our home in 2003 and put the money into cds and treasuries.
Sold one year too early but made up the rest from CDs.
Did become persona non grata in the neighborhood prior to moving though after neighbors found out we were planning to rent and not drink the koolaid anymore.
assuming we are talking about the same company social networking company whose competitor is doing layoffs now.
you know they give you a $600 subsidy if you live within 1 mile of the office in palo alto even though they bleed money.
granted you have to pay tax on the subsidy so what many employees do there is share an apartment, so they both get the subsidy.
That company seems to be like the original dot coms, all over again. I have gone to a "poker night" with some of their employees and everyone seems to be happy, and why wouldn't you?
They apparently don't have really hard deadlines. I have heard if you for some reason get a parking spot parking on the street they will even reimburse you for that there.
@poic: Did become persona non grata in the neighborhood prior to moving though after neighbors found out we were planning to rent and not drink the koolaid anymore.
Which neck of SV?
I thought the values were already nutty in 2002 (shows what I know) and passed on buying during that timeframe...
Edit: Meant to mention that values were nutty in santa clara.
I watch one neighborhood in Los Gatos very closely as a barometer of SillyConValley prime neighborhoods.
Homes priced around $1M have been the only ones moving. Those up near $2M were just sitting, and eventually (slowly) dropping their prices. The most expensive one on the market dropped its price tag from $2.8M to $1.9M over the course of nearly a year.
However, a big chunk of homes did go pending in the past two months. We'll see if they close. Hope they had locked in their rates!
ShortCourage, it was right at the foot of the Dumbarton bridge in Newark, the koolaid ran dry a bit earlier. Zillow shows the last sale at peak a year after I sold. It may gave been 2004 that we sold. Being a "dirty" renter for so long now may have addled my mind.
Btw took a look at houses in los gatos last weekend. Homes in the 1.5m to 2.5m are down atleast 20% from the high. Homes under 1m are being priced by sellers under the influence.
Conjure says, "That's the kind of free market 'invisible hand' I can believe in."
mp, can you please ask Conjure if he was referring to the invisible hand of the government supporting "really important" companies. And there are very few companies that are more important than the Carlyle family.
CA home prices down 20-40-60% in 12 months, and we're still talking unit sales increases? Let's see, YOY May aggregate purchase price total around $254MIL, down from $323MIL in 2008, off 22%? If those were corporate unit sales and revenue numbers, the issue would be what's happened to pricing power, and when will that turn around?
mp, I think Carlton is on the other side of Los Gatos Almaden Rd. "The Manor" is a little more pricey. It's a non-incorporated (county) part of Los Gatos, and is not subject to the same building restrictions. Therefore many folks have taken to building monstrous WannaBeMansions.
Carlyle Group... weren't they the first to blow up, kinda setting this whole disaster in motion, using Bear Stearns as their prime broker, levered up 30:1 in GNMAs that were blowing up because changes in the conforming loan limit had mucked around with their convexity?
Several commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have been arrested because of their opposition to plans scheduled for tomorrow, Iranian Web site Tehran Bureau reported June 18. Tehran Bureau added that “the plan is to create chaos and bloody confrontations” to justify a crackdown. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is expected to make an announcement on June 19 during Friday prayers."
Another thing I've noticed is a lot of churn in the listings. Stuff gets listed, then goes off the market, then comes back on for another try about 6 months to a year later. Sellers not happy with reality.
Also, I notice on ForeclosureRadar.com that there are two houses in "The Manor" in foreclosure....something that was unheard in past years. But it will be much more common in the future.
Carlyle sets in motion the economic phase of the 4th Generation Warfare against the United States...
Interesting....very interesting.
Did not OBL say he wanted to bankrupt the US?
Be careful staring into the abyss.
I'm a plumbing contractor in a small southern Oregon city. Today I get a call from a lady all in a rush. She tells me she's in foreclosure and needs a plumber to come out and cap off the lines to the clawfoot tub in her house so she can take it with her. This is new to me. I see and read of the wiring stripped, appliances taken and copper stripped but taking away the bathtub is my first brush with this type of scavenging. She has a design business, I suppose that tub is going to look great in some clients house. Genuine foreclosed antique from the GDII era. I wonder if she knows how much those things weigh? If I had some Jim The Realtor type video savvy it would make a great video with commentary as the the tub leaves the house with its tub bearers hoisting it. Takes about as many guys as you see at a funeral with the coffin.
Thanks for the info on Los Gatos. I think I'll have a closer look next time I'm in the area.
All I really remember is a small downtown with a cigar lounge, very dot.comish.
Does anyone else remember the cigar fad from the dot.bomb days?
Mr. Smith, As an interior designer myself, I can tell you it doesn't matter how much the tub weighs. She will have the cell numbers of dozens of strong unemployed constuction laborers who will be there fast and work cheap.
If you want to learn everything that's going on in Los Gatos real estate, have lunch at T-Bird's Pizza, which is just down the street from one of the major wannabe estate brokers, who's name I no longer remember.
Anyway, just sit and listen to all of the real estate types bullshit each other over lunch and reveal an occasional secret.
In bubblenomics, the greater fool theory supposes the practice of purchasing an appreciating asset purely based on momentum, in the hopes of selling at a future, higher price to a greater fool. Everyone who sells for a loss, after the peak price, is the bagholder. See: long-term investor or ponzi scheme.
Bagholder
dose a Newspeak antonym:
Bagowner
In bubblenomics, the lessor fooled theory supposes the practice of owning appreciating assets based purely on understanding what money is, in the hopes that at a future, a fabulous exhange to a lessor fooled will occur. Everyone who buys expecting a gain, after the exchange, is a Bagowner. See: low hanging fruit or consolidation.
DOW 6000 - there are lots (and have been for 'bout a year now) funded pools for such investments, there are also junk bond funds. Dont know if you can drill down to MBSs pools...anybody? Buying distressed assets is risky but some times the rewards are okay if you have the stomach.
June 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro, concerned that trading on private electronic markets may pose “emerging risks” to investors, said the agency may require firms to disclose more information on their transactions.
If trading systems known as “dark pools” expand substantially, they may “prompt speculation and suspicion” about price fluctuations because they don’t provide enough transparency, Schapiro said in speech prepared for delivery today in New York. Traders with access to the private markets’ pending orders also may gain an unfair advantage, she said.
HomeGnome...well sheeet the SEC has taken off their rose colored specs and now see what most already know...never seems to amaze me how so many, so high up, have such little perspective...
Oh, dear. If the local used house salesmen think they are selling "estates", I imagine that the prices will be insane. Hopefully the googlebucks effect will wane at some point - I've heard that it's still keeping prices way above sanity in the area.
If you want to buy MBS, pick any number of different bond funds, and look at the holdings. PIMCO's Total Return Fund has MBS/ABS/CMBS all over it. Most bond funds use MBS to reach for "high yield" type returns with AAA (or formerly AAA) ratings.
It just struck me, yes, I am slow. That the entire "green shoots" thing is akin to the final days of the real estate bubble. Denial of reality and its "all in the bag."
Even if it is an L and stablized there, it is a bad thing. Why? I think of it this way.
I make a 100k a year. I get fired. I burn through my savings. I give up and take a job at 50k. I am stable. Yet, I still have all the bills from a lifestyle that was designed to be fed 100k a year. If I am part of an entire demographic then all those companys that fed my lifestyle need to shrink. If my lifestyle cohort was a huge chunk of GDP then were is it done stabilizing?
mp, re Carlyle
emailed a friend who worked for Carlyle Capital. Heres what he said.
The below is BS. Carlyle's strategy is never to accumulate companies and create monopoly power. Carlyle's portfolio companies can be found on their public website. For example, their automotive holdings:
After we sold our house we looked all over the Bay Area for our eventual next home.
I bike a lot and like Los Gatos for the biking culture down there. But in the last 5 years ago it's gotten a definite blonde bubble-head feel to it, which we also found in Burlingame. That was a definite turnoff for my wife.
We eventually settled on Montclair up in the Oakland Hills. Nice small-townish feel to it, close to work in SF and more of a mix of races then many parts of the Bay Area.
Los Gatos is definitely still drinking the koolaid, much more so then even Palo Alto.
mp - Congure has been quiet for some time...that and I'f been engrossed in some other stuff....odd that nobody is talking of Mad Max anymore...have we moved away from the cliff's edge?
I charted that data stream from the Chicago Fed... It does look like a bottom is in place, but that's assuming that the chart continues up in the future... I think we have plenty of reasons to think that wont happen...
poic..i'll be movin in to your hood...hopefully ligget street in the next year or so (might be upper piedmont, but anything walkable to the village)...im tempted now. Nice house going for upper 6s there now, but I just cant let myself be a knifecatcher now after waiting this out so long. Patience.....
Re: Bucks in Woodside.
Still the hangout for the dot busters.
Please go the the Woodside Bakery. It is owned by a friend - nice guy - rides horses.
I look at Zillow to see what they think my old house in Palo Alto is worth. Yikes! The last look made me swallow my gum. If Zillow can be believed, we left a massive amount of money on the table when we sold last year. We were going downsize to a townhouse/condo in the Mid Pen but could not find anything we would live in for less than $1mil. That is why we are 3 hours away in the Sierra foothills.
Re: Los Gatos.
Used to be a nice small town. We left the area in 67 and when we returned it was too pricey so we ended up just north of Campbell off Winchester. The areas from Los Gatos to Blowmont (AKA Belmont) are very nice if you can afford the price of housing.
It does look like a bottom is in place, but that's assuming that the chart continues up in the future
Usually, a bottom is defined (in the context of a naitonal economy, that is) as the change from economic contraction to expansion.
The chart you a looking it shows that the conraction continues, but its rate is getting slower.
We've been looking in Montclair for 2 years now. My wife is very picky. She wants all 3, price, view of the bay and smaller house on a larger lot.
There was a house a house that popped up there. 9000 sq foot mostly flat lot, view of most of the bay, 1300 sq foot house with an extra 500 sq foot on lower floor that could be turned legal for very cheap. House had an asking price of 500k.
It got 14 offers. VERY hard to find flat lots up in the hills there and with a view. Wish it was the right time as that would have been perfect for us. Most stuff is just sitting and not selling, but special ones are still selling fast.
CR, I think you owe Cramer an apology.
Knifecatcher, CA
Sale: $125,000
7780 Glenn Ave, Citrus Heights, CA 95610
Beds/Bath: 3/1
Sq. Ft.: 1,466
Last Sale: $190,950 (May 11, 2009)
Okee dokee is this a bottom then?
I met the pig and the pig won. From the last thread:
"There is only one manufacturer of engine oil filters in the United States."
mp, what is the company? Who's conjure?
Like mp says, we've stabilized and are settling into the horizontal part of the L-shaped recovery.
Please remain in your seat with your seat belts fastened.
rates were at all-time lows in the March-April timeframe. 4.5% fixed is quite a tailwind for housing.
All hail Jim Cramer!
Well, go figure....rents continue to decrease and the difference between renting and owning yawns wider than ever in the Bay Area. This makes no sense to me.
In other words, more foreclosures and short sales in pricier properties?
I have friends trying to convince me that this is a "once in a lifetime opportunity to get into the California housing market".
I believe this is a common meme in Silicon Valley.
"Like mp says, we've stabilized and are settling into the horizontal part of the L-shaped recovery.
Please remain in your seat with your seat belts fastened. "
Is this going to be like flying over the plains, where you fly and fly and yet nothing seems to change when you look out the window?
Does this mean CA doesn't have a budget crisis anymore?
all bay area needs to do is wait for that internet company that keeps losing money to go public. You know which one....the one that's overhired and overhyped. Perhaps appeared on a magazine cover or tv program. The one that's the next craze.
I believe this is a common meme in Silicon Valley.
Sonoma/Napa as well.
That was weird. It was hard to get on CR just now.
What kinds of loans are these buyers getting?
But mortgage rates are coming down to help the market clear, no?
C
Virtually every oil filter in the United States is manufactured by a subsidiary of Carlyle Group.
Nemo, ROFLOL. Thanks for the laugh ...
best to all
mp:
What about K&N. They make good stuff and are not owned by Carlyle:
K&N High Performance Air Filters, Oil Filters, & Air Intakes - Official K&N
Engineering Site
Oop couldn't connect just now. Perhaps we can have one of those 'twitter is currently unavailable' screen....you know the one with the ice cream cone saying 'chill'. but maybe with the mortgage pig saying 'you've been pigged'
well, the bay area has much higher proportion of IT related jobs, and those in general pay more than construction & service jobs down the coast. So, all of those people who couldn't afford RE because they took their time to evaluate their real Cash Flows are now rushing in.
In addition, I doubt many businesses could afford to cut on their current software as easy as their payroll. All hail annual license business model!
Now, I better start looking for ME wine jobs.
Like mp says, we've stabilized and are settling into the horizontal part of the L-shaped recovery.
If you look at the best composite indicator of the economic activity in the US - the Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- you will see that the "stabilization" means the pace of decline changed from -3.7 ~ -3.5 in Jan-March to -2.6 in April. This is the level of decline from August of last year. It is still worse than the worst decline level in the previous three recessions (2001, 1990-1991 and 1980-1982)
We have yet to reach the bottom of this recession, any talk about recovery is way premature. Of course, local stories can vary, but at the national level we are very much in a deep recession still.
MrM is correct.
MrM- "...any talk about recovery is way premature."
Read. it. again.
I didn't say anything about recovery. I said stabilization.
We have yet to reach the bottom of this recession, any talk about recovery is way premature. Of course, local stories can vary, but at the national level we are very much in a deep recession still.
Looks like someone is going to be heading to Green Shoot Reeducation Camp this summer.
I didn't say anything about recovery. I said stabilization.
Stabilization as in "the economy is contracting at a steady pace of 2% per year" ?
At least the decline is predictable
i have a friend who works there with his fiancee.
his fiancee is a receptionist there. they pay like $70k a year. to be a receptionist.
"What about K&N. They make good stuff and are not owned by Carlyle:"
K&N Family Tree
K&N -> Champion Laboratories, Inc. -> BCI -> Carlyle Group
Sorry.
um, bear market rally.
re: silicon valley housing.
Sold our home in 2003 and put the money into cds and treasuries.
Sold one year too early but made up the rest from CDs.
Did become persona non grata in the neighborhood prior to moving though after neighbors found out we were planning to rent and not drink the koolaid anymore.
Purolator Family Tree
Purolator -> Honeywell Filtration -> BCI -> Carlyle Group
Autolite Family Tree
Autolite -> Fram -> Honeywell Filtration -> BCI -> Carlyle Group
Affinia Family Tree
Affinia -> BCI -> Carlyle Group
STP Family Tree
STP -> Champion Laboratories -> BCI -> Carlyle Group
So, basically every aftermarket engine oil filter sold in AutoZone and NAPA is a Carlyle Group brand.
Conjure says, "That's the kind of free market 'invisible hand' I can believe in."
"BWAHAHAHA!"
Sorry.
poic,
I think you sold more than one year early. Depending on the neighborhood, the peak was in around 2005 or 2006 in Silicon Valley, wasn't it?
"they pay like $70k a year. to be a receptionist. "
Oh why did I bother to graduate high school. Oh right, so I can semi-understand what people are saying on CR and make snarky remarks.
assuming we are talking about the same company social networking company whose competitor is doing layoffs now.
you know they give you a $600 subsidy if you live within 1 mile of the office in palo alto even though they bleed money.
granted you have to pay tax on the subsidy so what many employees do there is share an apartment, so they both get the subsidy.
That company seems to be like the original dot coms, all over again. I have gone to a "poker night" with some of their employees and everyone seems to be happy, and why wouldn't you?
They apparently don't have really hard deadlines. I have heard if you for some reason get a parking spot parking on the street they will even reimburse you for that there.
Its insane.
@poic: Did become persona non grata in the neighborhood prior to moving though after neighbors found out we were planning to rent and not drink the koolaid anymore.
Which neck of SV?
I thought the values were already nutty in 2002 (shows what I know) and passed on buying during that timeframe...
Edit: Meant to mention that values were nutty in santa clara.
I watch one neighborhood in Los Gatos very closely as a barometer of SillyConValley prime neighborhoods.
Homes priced around $1M have been the only ones moving. Those up near $2M were just sitting, and eventually (slowly) dropping their prices. The most expensive one on the market dropped its price tag from $2.8M to $1.9M over the course of nearly a year.
However, a big chunk of homes did go pending in the past two months. We'll see if they close. Hope they had locked in their rates!
"I watch one neighborhood in Los Gatos very closely..."
Carlton Avenue?
ShortCourage, it was right at the foot of the Dumbarton bridge in Newark, the koolaid ran dry a bit earlier. Zillow shows the last sale at peak a year after I sold. It may gave been 2004 that we sold. Being a "dirty" renter for so long now may have addled my mind.
Btw took a look at houses in los gatos last weekend. Homes in the 1.5m to 2.5m are down atleast 20% from the high. Homes under 1m are being priced by sellers under the influence.
Conjure says, "That's the kind of free market 'invisible hand' I can believe in."
mp, can you please ask Conjure if he was referring to the invisible hand of the government supporting "really important" companies. And there are very few companies that are more important than the Carlyle family.
mp,
They call it the "Blossom Manor", back behind Whole Foods (it's fenced in by Los-Gatos-Almaden Rd. Blossom Hill Rd, and Los Gatos Blvd.)
MrM, Conjure says it's Adam Smith's invisible hand at work.
That's all he'll say.
CA home prices down 20-40-60% in 12 months, and we're still talking unit sales increases? Let's see, YOY May aggregate purchase price total around $254MIL, down from $323MIL in 2008, off 22%? If those were corporate unit sales and revenue numbers, the issue would be what's happened to pricing power, and when will that turn around?
They call it the "Blossom Manor"
Yes. Carlton Avenue.
We agree about Carlton Avenue.
That whole area was developed by Diaz during the late fifties.
poic, that sounds about right to me.
Conjure says it's Adam Smith's invisible hand at work.
Adam Smith's? More like Jim Baker's
mp, I think Carlton is on the other side of Los Gatos Almaden Rd. "The Manor" is a little more pricey. It's a non-incorporated (county) part of Los Gatos, and is not subject to the same building restrictions. Therefore many folks have taken to building monstrous WannaBeMansions.
Carlyle Group... weren't they the first to blow up, kinda setting this whole disaster in motion, using Bear Stearns as their prime broker, levered up 30:1 in GNMAs that were blowing up because changes in the conforming loan limit had mucked around with their convexity?
"Adam Smith's? More like Jim Baker's "
I think we're talking about the same guy, just a different century.
"Iran: IRGC Commanders Arrested
June 18, 2009
Several commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have been arrested because of their opposition to plans scheduled for tomorrow, Iranian Web site Tehran Bureau reported June 18. Tehran Bureau added that “the plan is to create chaos and bloody confrontations” to justify a crackdown. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is expected to make an announcement on June 19 during Friday prayers."
ShortCourage
There's a French Mediterranian style house right off olive street, nice view 2500 sqft on 0.5 acres rebuilt in 2004 for 2m
Two homes nearby look like spec builders gone jk
That home would have been 3m at the peak
Another thing I've noticed is a lot of churn in the listings. Stuff gets listed, then goes off the market, then comes back on for another try about 6 months to a year later. Sellers not happy with reality.
Also, I notice on ForeclosureRadar.com that there are two houses in "The Manor" in foreclosure....something that was unheard in past years. But it will be much more common in the future.
"I think Carlton is on the other side of Los Gatos Almaden Rd."
You're right. I got it.
That's south of the Diaz development. It's been a long time.
I haven't spent much time in Los Gatos, but it looks nice driving through.
Do those of you that follow the area like it?
Terminal velocity is a sort of stabilization:
Terminal velocity - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
pavel: link?
Carlyle sets in motion the economic phase of the 4th Generation Warfare against the United States...
Interesting....very interesting.
Did not OBL say he wanted to bankrupt the US?
Be careful staring into the abyss.
"Do those of you that follow the area like it?"
I don't.
"I haven't spent much time in Los Gatos, but it looks nice driving through.
Do those of you that follow the area like it? "
at its peak, when the .com crested in early 2000, the money in los gatos made santa monica look like compton
however, folks like this still live in the hills there:
http://www.all-offroad.com/main/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=274
there, as everywhere in california, prop 13 can make 'gentrification' a patchwork affair
sm- good schools, large lots, warmer than peninsula, thousand oaks with redwoods nearbye instead of dry hills..couple fun bars too
Mary Pickford had a getaway in the Los Gatos hills. Very discrete place.
Bowling alley in the basement, movie theater, theater organ, whole nine yards.
Nice place, but Mission style.
I'm a plumbing contractor in a small southern Oregon city. Today I get a call from a lady all in a rush. She tells me she's in foreclosure and needs a plumber to come out and cap off the lines to the clawfoot tub in her house so she can take it with her. This is new to me. I see and read of the wiring stripped, appliances taken and copper stripped but taking away the bathtub is my first brush with this type of scavenging. She has a design business, I suppose that tub is going to look great in some clients house. Genuine foreclosed antique from the GDII era. I wonder if she knows how much those things weigh? If I had some Jim The Realtor type video savvy it would make a great video with commentary as the the tub leaves the house with its tub bearers hoisting it. Takes about as many guys as you see at a funeral with the coffin.
pavel: link?
Filling in for pavel - here is the link
"...taking away the bathtub is my first brush with this type of scavenging."
I'm sure it won't be the last.
Cash only. No checks.
we continue to peer through the frame provided, wonder what's next...
Thanks for the info on Los Gatos. I think I'll have a closer look next time I'm in the area.
All I really remember is a small downtown with a cigar lounge, very dot.comish.
Does anyone else remember the cigar fad from the dot.bomb days?
"rates were at all-time lows in the March-April timeframe. 4.5% fixed is quite a tailwind for housing."
Which now that we are at ~5.5% will make May/June kinda slow in a reverse foreclosure moratorium kind of way.
Anyone know where I can get my hands on some Mortgage backed Securities?
Mr. Smith, As an interior designer myself, I can tell you it doesn't matter how much the tub weighs. She will have the cell numbers of dozens of strong unemployed constuction laborers who will be there fast and work cheap.
"Does anyone else remember the cigar fad from the dot.bomb days?"
Conjure and I were invited to a cigar party in Los Gatos when we were there in '06.
I didn't go because I have a life.
If you want to learn everything that's going on in Los Gatos real estate, have lunch at T-Bird's Pizza, which is just down the street from one of the major wannabe estate brokers, who's name I no longer remember.
Anyway, just sit and listen to all of the real estate types bullshit each other over lunch and reveal an occasional secret.
It's an education.
The greatest fool.
In bubblenomics, the greater fool theory supposes the practice of purchasing an appreciating asset purely based on momentum, in the hopes of selling at a future, higher price to a greater fool. Everyone who sells for a loss, after the peak price, is the bagholder. See: long-term investor or ponzi scheme.
Bagholder
dose a Newspeak antonym:
Bagowner
In bubblenomics, the lessor fooled theory supposes the practice of owning appreciating assets based purely on understanding what money is, in the hopes that at a future, a fabulous exhange to a lessor fooled will occur. Everyone who buys expecting a gain, after the exchange, is a Bagowner. See: low hanging fruit or consolidation.
Excellent, Bank Failure. Add it to the Glossary.
sm-macanudos and johnny walker red...
DOW 6000 - there are lots (and have been for 'bout a year now) funded pools for such investments, there are also junk bond funds. Dont know if you can drill down to MBSs pools...anybody? Buying distressed assets is risky but some times the rewards are okay if you have the stomach.
If you want to learn everything that's going on in Los Gatos real estate, have lunch at
Reminds me of Buck's circa '00
June 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro, concerned that trading on private electronic markets may pose “emerging risks” to investors, said the agency may require firms to disclose more information on their transactions.
If trading systems known as “dark pools” expand substantially, they may “prompt speculation and suspicion” about price fluctuations because they don’t provide enough transparency, Schapiro said in speech prepared for delivery today in New York. Traders with access to the private markets’ pending orders also may gain an unfair advantage, she said.
HomeGnome...well sheeet the SEC has taken off their rose colored specs and now see what most already know...never seems to amaze me how so many, so high up, have such little perspective...
"major wannabe estate brokers"
Oh, dear. If the local used house salesmen think they are selling "estates", I imagine that the prices will be insane. Hopefully the googlebucks effect will wane at some point - I've heard that it's still keeping prices way above sanity in the area.
Traders with access to the private markets’ pending orders also may gain an unfair advantage, she said.
Just expand that thinking a leeetle bit and suddenly the NYSE looks naked.
Barely - I was so 110% kidding there...
Rather just dump my dollars in my handy paper shredder here
does anybody have a link to good bond calc? (fractional interest/yield)
Intero, that's it. That's the name of the broker.
I went into T-Bird's a couple of times for lunch. Great food, great people.
Anyway, it was fun watching the real estate guys (and gals) flounder.
Actually, the gals were taking it better than the guys.
"sm-macanudos and johnny walker red... "
I hear ya, but I prefer peaty scotch with a cigar.
DOW6000 - it needed to be said for all to see in 15-20 years!
"Everyone who buys expecting a gain, after the exchange, is a Bagowner. See: low hanging fruit or consolidation. "
Sounds like knife catcher to me.
JP...lol!
+1
So, basically every aftermarket engine oil filter sold in AutoZone and NAPA is a Carlyle Group brand.
Conjure says, "That's the kind of free market 'invisible hand' I can believe in."
Now I understand what the kids mean when they say "talk to the hand."
Blackhalo - Saw low hanging fruit and knife in the same sentence - had to cross my legs
mp - its no wonder these folks folks have coin for lunch
If you want to buy MBS, pick any number of different bond funds, and look at the holdings. PIMCO's Total Return Fund has MBS/ABS/CMBS all over it. Most bond funds use MBS to reach for "high yield" type returns with AAA (or formerly AAA) ratings.
But daddyo how do you play a pure stream?
"Saw low hanging fruit and knife in the same sentence - had to cross my legs "
{laughing heartily]
Funny how the analogies mix...
It just struck me, yes, I am slow. That the entire "green shoots" thing is akin to the final days of the real estate bubble. Denial of reality and its "all in the bag."
Even if it is an L and stablized there, it is a bad thing. Why? I think of it this way.
I make a 100k a year. I get fired. I burn through my savings. I give up and take a job at 50k. I am stable. Yet, I still have all the bills from a lifestyle that was designed to be fed 100k a year. If I am part of an entire demographic then all those companys that fed my lifestyle need to shrink. If my lifestyle cohort was a huge chunk of GDP then were is it done stabilizing?
Nemo wrote:
I have friends trying to convince me that this is a "once in a lifetime opportunity to get into the California housing market".
They're absolutely right - with the losses you'd have to take, you'll never be able to move.
mp, re Carlyle
emailed a friend who worked for Carlyle Capital. Heres what he said.
The below is BS. Carlyle's strategy is never to accumulate companies and create monopoly power. Carlyle's portfolio companies can be found on their public website. For example, their automotive holdings:
The Carlyle Group : Portfolio
Honeywell, for example, is a publicly company and owns Fram and Autolite brands.
I too tried to get Carlyle to BCI connecton, but not much luck (did not try too hard).
If possible references.
Thanks
sbarrkum
sm_landlord,
After we sold our house we looked all over the Bay Area for our eventual next home.
I bike a lot and like Los Gatos for the biking culture down there. But in the last 5 years ago it's gotten a definite blonde bubble-head feel to it, which we also found in Burlingame. That was a definite turnoff for my wife.
We eventually settled on Montclair up in the Oakland Hills. Nice small-townish feel to it, close to work in SF and more of a mix of races then many parts of the Bay Area.
Los Gatos is definitely still drinking the koolaid, much more so then even Palo Alto.
nova what you might be missing is that if the inflator is -5% mom, you are well ahead.
India's wholesale index went neg for the first time in 30 years...so much for the power of India and China
sbarrkum, all I know is what Conjure tells me. I don't where he gets it.
I'm just passing it along, but I'm not betting against Conjure.
Not in this life.
//If I am part of an entire demographic then all those companys that fed my lifestyle need to shrink.//
Hmm....pool cleaners are down...pool removers and fill dirt companies are up...
mp - Congure has been quiet for some time...that and I'f been engrossed in some other stuff....odd that nobody is talking of Mad Max anymore...have we moved away from the cliff's edge?
I kinda miss the readouts of Conjure's clock. It's so un-armegeddon-y without it.
"Even if it is an L and stablized there, it is a bad thing."
Well, um, yeah, but not quite as bad as a Depression Bread Line.
"I bike a lot and like Los Gatos for the biking"
That is so un-Amerikan, go bye a car, use gas, and I guess Fram oil filters.
"L " shaped recovery ?
Through the Summer then more downward action ...
Once people get back ( from their backyard ) from their staycations
and look at the order books for the Fall it will get ugly ...
I charted that data stream from the Chicago Fed... It does look like a bottom is in place, but that's assuming that the chart continues up in the future... I think we have plenty of reasons to think that wont happen...
Conjure doesn't have much free time at the moment.
For that matter, I don't either.
Coming to a theater near you; The Incredible Shrinking Lifestyle. Starring The Pretentious Posers. Added feature: Mommy and Daddy You Suck.
poic..i'll be movin in to your hood...hopefully ligget street in the next year or so (might be upper piedmont, but anything walkable to the village)...im tempted now. Nice house going for upper 6s there now, but I just cant let myself be a knifecatcher now after waiting this out so long. Patience.....
OT: Guess how realtors are retooling? Yep, they're becoming realtors.
From Economists View
One Third of the Prices within the CPI Fell Last Month
Economist's View: One Third of the Prices within the CPI Fell Last Month
Anne put up some great figures ...
Annual Rate of Inflation by Month, 2007-2009
(Consumer price index)
2007
Dec ( 4.1) Recession begins
2008
Jan ( 4.3)
Feb ( 4.
Mar ( 4.
Apr ( 3.9)
May ( 4.2)
Jun ( 5.
Jul ( 5.6)
Aug ( 5.4)
Sep ( 4.9)
Oct ( 3.7)
Nov ( 1.7)
Dec ( 0.7)
2009
Jan ( 0.
Obama
Feb ( 0.2)
Mar (- 0.4)
Apr (- 0.7)
May (- 1.3)
Re: Bucks in Woodside.
Still the hangout for the dot busters.
Please go the the Woodside Bakery. It is owned by a friend - nice guy - rides horses.
I look at Zillow to see what they think my old house in Palo Alto is worth. Yikes! The last look made me swallow my gum. If Zillow can be believed, we left a massive amount of money on the table when we sold last year. We were going downsize to a townhouse/condo in the Mid Pen but could not find anything we would live in for less than $1mil. That is why we are 3 hours away in the Sierra foothills.
Re: Los Gatos.
Used to be a nice small town. We left the area in 67 and when we returned it was too pricey so we ended up just north of Campbell off Winchester. The areas from Los Gatos to Blowmont (AKA Belmont) are very nice if you can afford the price of housing.
MP MISTAKE ALERT
Conjure is beating on me. He says I got it wrong.
It's not BCI, it's UCI.
UCI.
Sbarrkum, that may be of interest to you.
Just waiting for the states, counties, cities and schools to start their layoffs ...
"Last year my income dropped 60%. The regular, normal market went away"
Dear glod that is just, precious.
It does look like a bottom is in place, but that's assuming that the chart continues up in the future
Usually, a bottom is defined (in the context of a naitonal economy, that is) as the change from economic contraction to expansion.
The chart you a looking it shows that the conraction continues, but its rate is getting slower.
MP - you still there?
Yes?
You know machine tools? Is it really hard to make parts if you have a design?
GDD9000,
We've been looking in Montclair for 2 years now. My wife is very picky. She wants all 3, price, view of the bay and smaller house on a larger lot.
There was a house a house that popped up there. 9000 sq foot mostly flat lot, view of most of the bay, 1300 sq foot house with an extra 500 sq foot on lower floor that could be turned legal for very cheap. House had an asking price of 500k.
It got 14 offers. VERY hard to find flat lots up in the hills there and with a view. Wish it was the right time as that would have been perfect for us. Most stuff is just sitting and not selling, but special ones are still selling fast.
Depends on the part.
Barley (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 6:22 pm
does anybody have a link to good bond calc? (fractional interest/yield)
Try FICALC - The Web's Fixed Income Calculator (Bond Calculator)
or rent a Bloomberg
NW
poic
Hi neighbor - I'm in Crocker Highlands. Between us we got East Bay real estate covered.
How hard would it be to make a Colt SAA clone?
SAA?
Wait till all the pent up supply from the boomers and regular buyers hits the market. Yoo hoo.
Single Action Army. 1860-1880 version
Revolver? Basic machine tools, which is what they used back in the day.
Any competent machine shop.
Thank you.
mmckinl (profile) wrote on Fri, 6/19/2009 - 1:37 am
"L " shaped recovery ?
That L is not recovery, it is permanent recession.
Recovery will be L with serif.
No problem.
Just remember, however, that a BATF license would probably be required to manufacture them.
I don't want to read about you being hauled off to jail.
Edit: Pigged.
pico - thats the other area im looking at...near trestle glen, upper part of the street too...
but im in no hurry