Hotel RevPAR off 18.6 Percent
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 06/18/2009 - 9:28am (103 comments)
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[OT] Happy Birthday, Smoot-Hawley!
There's no shortage of vacancies in the Make-or-Break Hotel, people are staying away in droves...
Cliff Diving is now all-year round, no longer seasonal.
--bh
I am Nomad, sometimes also known as HAL.
Yes we have plenty of Vacancy's..please! no wait, PLEASE!!!!! RENT ME!!!
Does this number improve next month with Extended Stay BK?
CR - are you a Hydra, or working with numerous clones?
I can't wait until next year when the YoY numbers are all awesome.
How will new hotel inventory affect these numbers?
OT:
University of California mucky-mucks just floated a variety of wage cut/furlough options to staff for comment; save about $190-195 million, which is less than a third of the estimated $600+ mill deficit they expect to run in the new state budget. The remainder of the deficit will be dealt with by shutting down programs, staff reductions at UCOP and the various campuses, etc.
Half a bill here, half a bill there, and the consumer economy begins to feel it.
Hotel Inventory is going to mimic unemployment; they won't count hotel rooms not actively seeking occupants
University education became expensive because of non-academic staff and facilities.
I am Nomad
That was always my favorite Star Trek episode.
"Non sequitur; your facts are uncoordinated."
TB apple,
Could we not just use spare hotel rooms to house the poor?
RevPAR translates more or less into transient occupancy tax, which translates more or less into my salary, which translates more or less into my ability to purchase green shoots.
I wonder if hotel guests are moving in with each other.
"Part of the inhumanity of the computer is that, once it is competently programmed and working smoothly, it is completely honest."
Isaac Asimov
@Nemo - how can anyone pick Nomad over tribbles?
@Apple - lol, and scary, if true.
@ TB apple
They should report both U-3 and U-6 hotel vacancy
I can't tell you the best Trek, but I do know the worst one. The one with Marvin Belli.
What intrigues me about old Star Trek, was how they could be so futuristic in many ways, but couldn't get the concept of a computer being anything other than gigantic, with flashing lights going off all the time.
U.S. Says Bonds Seized in Italy Are ‘Clearly Fakes’
- Bloomberg.com
Not that they would say otherwise.
Speaking of overcapacity, Judge to expedite Fontainebleau bankruptcy case..."An attorney for Bank of America -- and for other banks being sued by the resort over their decision to stop funding for construction this spring -- has not responded to a request for comment. Fontainebleau wants the court to order the banks to release $656 million it says is needed to get the project back on track. The bank lenders say they cut off funding because Fontainebleau defaulted on its construction credit agreement because of cost overruns and other problems -- a charge denied by Fontainebleau."
You can enjoy schadenfreude regardless of which side wins...
My BF works for UCDMC, from her email:
'4. Layoffs for Academic Senate faculty members (tenured or non-tenured) are not being considered. But, we will continue to significantly reduce faculty hiring.'
She says morale yet from low to no to hostile.
At least one hotel is thriving. The eCONomic Heart Break Hotel is packed!
"U.S. Says Bonds Seized in Italy Are ‘Clearly Fakes’ "
Thanks for that update shill. I was wondering how that was all going to turn out.
But if they're fakes, how did they ever expect to redeem or even leverage them? How could they be smart enough to forge them, but stupid enough to think that they would find a place they could fence them?
Something about this story still does not compute.
Regarding the $134 billion in fake bonds. It is beyond comprehension that anyone would counterfeit fake bonds in that amount and size.
Something smells rotten.
"Hotel Inventory is going to mimic unemployment; they won't count hotel rooms not actively seeking occupants"
How will they count occupancy when they get converted to government housing for the unemployed?
We already have non-farm payrolls. Next up, non-manufacturing payrolls.
"Regarding the $134 billion in fake bonds. It is beyond comprehension that anyone would counterfeit fake bonds in that amount and size.
Something smells rotten."
Most likely, the "couriers" were the marks in a well played 419 scam.
@saver - at the rate manufacturing jobs are being lost right now, they won't have to change anything - it'll just be zero.
I'm not entirely convinced those are fakes....I also wouldn't expect to hear that a sum=to the 4th largest holdings is legitimate either. If they are fakes then how come the supposed criminals were released?
I lean towards the "they are real" camp and an incompetent attempt to fund someone's account with them.
None of it, fake or real passes the sniff test.
Ciao
MS
Ocean's 14?
Another think about that whole Italian fake bonds they was too much money for a two man operation and hope they would fly under the radar. Doesn't pass the all important smell test.
A lot being bantered about financial literacy. Start with "how do I file BK?"
Angry Saver --
It is beyond comprehension that anyone would counterfeit fake bonds in that amount and size.
I would have thought so, too, but apparently not:
Institutional - Examples of Known Phony Securities
Similar story involving $3 trillion in fake bonds from 2005:
cryptogon.com
Japanese guys were probably the victims, not the perps. But I would still love to know who they are and what they thought they were doing.
Real or fake, those bonds had Glenn Beck wetting himself. He should buy stock in depends.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 12:53 pm
Regarding the $134 billion in fake bonds. It is beyond comprehension that anyone would counterfeit fake bonds in that amount and size.
Something smells rotten.
Sorry, it's those damn TARPon again.
Shill
It took them more than a week to comment on something that was "Clearly" fake.
Nemo Angry Saver
Ever see that movies the Transporter? Neither did I but I think maybe these guys were trying to help an institution evade taxes, leave a country or maybe they were trying to bolster an Italian bank.
HMMMM,how about an 8.5 quake on the Hayward/rogers creek fault? It would help occupancy rates and stimulate any number of trades.....might be a few casualties,but all for the common good.
hoocoodanode!! In Bubblezone, FHA is the market
Demand for FHA Loans Is Overtaxing Agency, HUD Official Says
Record-high demand for government- backed home loans is overtaxing the Federal Housing Administration and may weaken the integrity of Ginnie Mae mortgage bonds, a U.S. inspector general said.
“FHA will be challenged to handle its expanded workload or new programs that require the agency to take on riskier loans than it historically has had in its portfolio,” Kenneth Donohue, the inspector general for the Housing and Urban Development Department, told lawmakers today. “The surge in FHA loans is likely to overtax the oversight resources of FHA, making careful and comprehensive lender monitoring difficult.”
"The surge in FHA loans is likely to overtax the oversight resources of FHA, making careful and comprehensive lender monitoring difficult.”
Where have we seen this episode before?
Note to Pimco. Start selling your agency paper... yesterday.
Obama Sees 10% Unemployment Rate, Chides Wall Street Critics
Obama Sees 10% Unemployment Rate, Chides Wall Street Critics - Bloomberg.com
They were fake, and the folks who had them ran as fast as they could to get away from the Italian police.
What I like is that they were for more than the amount of bearer bonds of those series that are currently outstanding.
Most of which had a face value of $10k or less.
Soooooo, scamola.
As for anybody thinking otherwise, you have conspiracy on the brain.
The last thing anybody would do is have a couple of yoyos who can't even take the right fricking train handle that much money.
Private plane with briefcase shackled to arm, accompanied by diplomatic passport flying into secure airports.
Anybody who thinks that is how the government rolls is beyond help- just buy gold and shotguns and live in your bankerproof redoubt in idaho.
Revpar is crashing like so much more than folks seem to account for in the LEI mess.
Just watch tax revenues crash and you have an idea how systemic this is becoming on the state and municipal level.
Add the higher taxes necessary to just keep the lights on at those levels, and you have a huge systemic contraction still to manifest.
In other words, on to the next phase of the slow motion crash!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Regarding the $134 billion in fake bonds. It is beyond comprehension that anyone would counterfeit fake bonds in that amount and size.
Something smells rotten.
And if they were fake, why in the world would the Italian authorities allow the conterfiters to go free...with no idea where they've ran off to?
" We make something that everybody wants.
Money!"
Actually, just currency.
----"Credit?"
Actually, debt.
One of my neighbors just bought a slightly used RV. I bet it was a deal, as there are lots of them for sale around here. They won't need a hotel room, I guess. And if they get foreclosed on, they'll still have a home in the country, Oregon style!
Tom, don't even think about it.
That said, an 8.5 on the Hayward would be a Katrina Moment for California and possibly the entire U.S. What if we're weakened enough that we bungle the response on the state, local, and fed level even with a president who's paying attention?
For those of you not familiar with San Francisco Bay Area geology, the Hayward Fault runs straight up the East Bay from around Fremont up through Hayward, San Leandro, Berkeley, El Cerrito/Brante, Richmond, Hercules, and beyond. And would liquify all the fill dirt around the bay, including low-lying areas of SF and the Peninsula.
allen-
Conspiracy or not......forgery is a crime. They write this shit for us.
Ciao
MS
Scone
There is an RV in My area a big 1970's Airstream. I swear there is a family living in there and they move around to avoid street cleaning and attention (even though the thing is 50ft long)
My guess is that they are trying to access the city services w/o having to pay rent.
" They were fake, and the folks who had them ran as fast as they could to get away from the Italian police.
What I like is that they were for more than the amount of bearer bonds of those series that are currently outstanding.
Most of which had a face value of $10k or less.
Soooooo, scamola."
I don't question they were fake, AllenM. My curiousity is how they ever expected they might get away with it. Would they never consider that attempting to utilize a bearer bond in that denomination would require verification steps? I mean, if you're smart enough to figure out how to properly forge a large denomination bearer bond, would you not also be smart enough to know how those bonds are numbered, recorded, tracked, and verified?
I guess I'm still just baffled by the motivation. Hopefully someone finds these guys someday and makes a PBS Frontline special out of it so we can get the real dirt. I think it's a fascinating story that hasn't been completely told yet.
"One of my neighbors just bought a slightly used RV. I bet it was a deal, as there are lots of them for sale around here. They won't need a hotel room, I guess. And if they get foreclosed on, they'll still have a home in the country, Oregon style!"
The "RV in the driveway" is a not-uncommon way of serving 10 people with a 2-BR house. The relatives who come to stay... bring their own bedrooms. Considerate, or what?
Noob goldberg
If you want the real dirt it won't be on Frontline
OT Sooo FED what are you going to do about long rates now????
There's a lot of talk out there about China, Russia, etc. getting out of UST, but I hear nothing about what would happen if domestic confidence in them crashed and a major pullback happened on that front.
China isn't the only entity that can figure out that diversification is an option.
Regarding the bearer bonds. Maybe they are fake. But after the AIG back door bank bailout and the Bernanke/Paulson/Lewis BAC/MER scandal, it's hard not to be suspicious.
I won't even mention the trillions in fraudulent MBS rated AAA.
@ TARP
This is kind of what's been happening... the unintended consequence of flooding the market with so much "riskless" paper is that, once risk appetite creeps back in, govie yields spike. There is no "liquidity on the sidelines"... it's more like which form of IOU is the hot potato.
Mildly provocative:
"One evening in the early Fall of 1971, President Nixon went on television and announced without warning that the United States would no longer honor the gold standard. His primary concern in making the address was its timing in relation to the television show Bonanza. Only his closest advisers knew about the decision beforehand, not even the U.S. State Department was informed.
Thus the United States defaulted on its obligations under Bretton Woods, and the era of free floating currencies began.
As Martin Wolf recently noted, countries with large dollar reserves and current account surpluses should take the possibility of default into account :
If (China) and other surplus countries wish to run huge surpluses and accumulate vast financial claims, they should expect defaults. They cannot have both safe foreign assets and huge surpluses. "
If you want the real dirt it won't be on Frontline
I was wondering if someone was going to comment on that
I'm not ashamed to admit that I enjoy Frontline, especially Will Lyman's voice. I've seen far worse documentaries then are shown on that show, even if they don't get it all right. Even their Wall Street expose wasn't terrible, although they missed a great deal of information. Certainly better then reports I've seen on the same subject elsewhere.
China isn't the only entity that can figure out that diversification is an option.
It's the classic prisoners dilemma. And it'll end the same way.
CR,
After following this blog, I am shell shocked...I feel like I am watching CNN in another universe...Too much data imput...I have already forgotten the important posts from yesterday...somehow, we (at least I ) need some gross indicator, such as a dashboard, showing key components of the economy and how they are doing, otherwise, everything appears in a stream of consciousness mode...something to remind us roughly how each significant effect has impacted the economy...
just my opinion...
@Panda - and if the US defaults on it's bonds, which should we worry about most? The 25% foreign held, or the 75% domestic that will wipe out $8-9T?
Lost-Confused
Important points to remember. There will be no real recovery in the US and the banks are still insolvent...
lost-confused (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 1:26 pm
CR,
After following this blog, I am shell shocked...I feel like I am watching CNN in another universe...Too much data imput...I have already forgotten the important posts
That's exactly what information overload does to the human psyche. Overwhelm the senses and mind to the degree you form an alternate reality or "reality-tunnel" like any good propaganda campaign, relentless and multisensory.
TARP-
I think all they are worried about is the 25%......but only from the standpoint of them increasing the %...they could give two shits about current obligations.
Ciao
MS
if the US defaults on it's bonds
Why do something so gauche when you have a printing press? Devaluation is so much less shocking than default.
Fed’s Soup Kitchen Becomes Magnet for Lobbyists: Caroline Baum - Bloomberg.com
Fed’s Soup Kitchen Becomes Magnet for Lobbyists: Caroline Baum
Its Mmm Mmm good!
That is part of the reason I still looking for an RV!
My guess is that they are trying to access the city services w/o having to pay rent. - TWF 2012
At least they're not 'dumping' by the side of the road, or in the front yard...
@ B Bart
Yep.
Inflate away the problem.
Social inSecurity payments will go out as scheduled but what will those devalued digits get you?
Bonds will be paid but what purchasing power will you have?
@MS - if I could print up 10 or 15% of my mortgage and buy it, I could decrease the bank's percentage too.
China isn't fooled, so why is any pension fund, businesss, etc.?
SS is indexed to CPI?
"The last thing anybody would do is have a couple of yoyos who can't even take the right fricking train handle that much money.
Private plane with briefcase shackled to arm, accompanied by diplomatic passport flying into secure airports."
"Anybody who thinks that is how the government rolls is beyond help- just buy gold and shotguns and live in your bankerproof redoubt in idaho."
LOL Just when I get worked up about a good conspiracy theory, someone throws cold water on it. I'll just take my tin foil hat and go home. pout
OT:
Bear Beer Tour
If you are ever in Columbia, SC; stop at the Hunter Gatherer BrewPub for a microbrew.
Tell 'em Gnome sent ya.
@TARP...dunno...that story just got me thinking about the possibility of a some kind of similar suprise announcement now.
tarp-
could be they actually believe the whole "full faith....etc" argument. Not everyone thinks or performs rationally and in the face of what they continue to offer I really think people just went and drank the kool-aid. "it can't happen" mantra so to speak.
But it is and will IMO.
Ciao
MS
SS is indexed to CPI?
And CPI can be massaged. It's true that having benefits indexed to inflation cushions the blow, but aside from government manipulation of the statistics there's always the fact that inflation is something that happens in the now and CPI/COLA adjustments are made retrospectively. That doesn't matter if inflation is slow and steady, but if it does a nice jackrabbit start to 15% and stays there, the COLA will always be a year behind.
red-
yes...an no one ever thought a group of second rate burglars would brazenly break into the DNC either. It's believable to me because it is so unbelievable. If they are truly forgeries why not arrest the two?
Whatever the case it's not over and not the story that is being touted. My take is that they never stopped issuing those bonds and someone thought they could just surface with them and collect. We are seeing a huge story being trivialized because it's just not "believable"....
Ciao
MS
From Wiki:
Kool-Aid Man is the mascot for Kool-Aid, a popular drink. The character has appeared on television and print advertising as a fun-loving character, appearing to children and sharing his Kool-Aid beverage, as well as his catchphrase "Oh yeah!". He is a gigantic anthropomorphic pitcher, filled with Tropical Punch Kool-Aid and marked with a fingerpainted smiley face. In 2005, the Kool-Aid Man celebrated his 30th birthday.
More Stimulus?
"OH YEAH!"
@Panda - I guess anything is possible, though I'm thinking that the current game is the only one they know how to play right now.
Today, I've been pondering the idea of a 'food cartel' in North America, and wondering why, considering it's value, our domestic/export prices for food don't mirror the prices most net oil export countries' citizens pay for fuel at home compared to the rest of the world. Could be a deficit solving solution, and you can't eat oil.
OT - Just noticed the addition of the glossary. Its a great new feature. I added bando. Can some one can add mew?
MS, how much fake stuff is available in Italy?
How many of those heavy gold chains are really 14k- more like 10k on a good day.
Now a Swiss fake, that would be quality, which is most likely why they hesitated.
So much of what consumers buy is really fake, or real made in the same factory as the fakes in China. Notice a lot of the "luxury" goods are made in China?
I like to collect coins, but that market will soon be almost defunct due to the massive number of fakes coming into this country from China.
Fake pharmaceuticals, fake muscle building formulas (containing real steriods!!), the list right now is nearly endless.
So much is going the way of the dodo bird.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Allen-
We're not talking about handbags here. It's one thing to not prosecute someone for selling fake watches, handbags etc. Entirely different to let these purported forger's just walk away seeing what they carried.
Apples and Oranges my friend.
Ciao
MS
BS Bernanke: Why are we still listening to this guy?
YouTube - Bernanke: Why are we still listening to this guy?
@MS - maybe the fakes were so good, the gov't hired them? Forgers are the new hackers.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Info from this blog is coming so fast and furious, that there is little to no time to intergate into my world view...There is plenty of analysis and commentary, but no time.....no time..no time.Notime.time.me....
lost and confused...
Why let them go if they are criminals?
Don't worry these were probably just Bomber Ben's "Containment Bonds".
Or Paulson "Bazooka Bonds" (with a joke printed on the back of each one)
New Axis of "Evil"
FED
Treasury
Glodman Sacs
"Why do something so gauche when you have a printing press? Devaluation is so much less shocking than default."
Not that the Chinese will like that any better.
Followup to last thread (which I missed); comment reposted from below the pig there:
I also want to thank CR for rechecking and clarifying this.
I think many of us would be interested in a longer UberNerd post that parsed out the OER methodology in full detail.
Even having the weighting based on a survey strikes me as very bizarre. It appears that the weight allocated to OER might be excessive, which means that other prices in the CPI (which may matter more to many households) are "suppressed" in the reported CPI. Furthermore the OER methodology appears to produce results that are excessively stable (smoothed), which again suppresses actual changes in consumer prices. The CPI as a metric of actual real-world inflation (or deflation) is compromised in both ways.
It might also be quite useful to track CPI ex-OER as an alternative metric of inflation. (Which would be more suitable, for instance, to the large fraction of the population who own their homes outright or have fixed-rate mortgages.)
Individuals trying to assess their risk in a stagflationary world will prefer inflation metrics that match their personal situation. If 30% of one's household budget is fixed mortgage PITI, then applying CPI ex-OER adjustments on just the other 70% might be much more sensible than using straight CPI for all 100%.
However, my hat goes off to those who perform all the detailed work in the econometrics. The CPI methodology clearly requires a substantial amount of laborious effort, and while the system may have flaws, it's still helpful. However, it also seems that (like so many other things in 21st-century finance), the CPI is trusted too much by the credulous, and the hidden risk of flaws in CPI methodology is too often underestimated.
I updated the OER definition in Ken's glossary again.
I remember under the Clinton administration the way the CPI was formulated changed to show a much low number. The benefit was reduced pay out to SS.
The decline in bed tax revenue here in Santa Barbara is down about 20% YoY. But we're not worried because our largest employer is the UC, and the demand for higher education is limitless. Right? RIGHT??
OK, well, if tourism and diploma milling don't see us through to the recovery (any day now, right? RIGHT??), our fallback is we've got Oprah. Here's a little inspirational excerpt from Oprah's commencement address at Duke University over the weekend:
"Of all the wonderful things that have happened, including getting a doctorate, an honorary doctorate from Duke, what really makes me feel successful is being able to use my life in service to someone else. And I will have to say, it is a wonderful thing to have a beautiful home, or homes, a wonderful thing to have a beautiful home which just escaped the fire in Santa Barbara. And it is really fantastic to have your own jet, and anybody who says it isn't is lying to you. That jet thing is really good. But you really haven't completed the circle of success unless you can help somebody else move forward."
The Dukes would be proud, wouldn't they? Especially Mortimer . . .
or the dreaded "Super-Duper" bonds.....Big Gay Al running the fixed trade and all that....
Ciao
MS
Honorary Degrees are crap shingles for those who couldn't EARN one.
The rumors about the two bond carriers not being charged or found doesn't mean that they were let go. Might be time to start checking construction sites.
Was it six days to confirm the bonds are fake, or six days for the concrete to dry?
MS,
I note the initial contact was with the Italian Border Guards, who charitably could be compared with the Keystone Cops.
Now, if it was with the Federal Police, or MI5, I would sit up and take notice.
It is the equivalent of watching Maricopa County's Sheriff Joe effectively arrest and investigate the Tan Man for mortgage fraud, instead of arresting landscapers.
Not gonna happen.
I suspect this was to be used in perpetuating large scale fraud in the Japanese underworld- defrauding folks with illegitimate earnings with a fake moneylaundering scheme.
That is about the extent of what I can see the use of these bonds.
Not that it wouldn't be profitable, mind you. Most fraud is pretty lucrative, as long as the wrong people are not targeted.
I can just imagine a Mr. Musabi trying to post one these through his brokerage account and being told it is fake.
Yup, nothing like scamming scammers.
The endless speculation here merely masks the more serious questions about the fate of the acceptance of the dollar overseas.
Congrats you are following the McGuffin MacGuffin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia of finance.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"SS is indexed to CPI? "
Yes, that is a major reason why CPI has been smurfed. Stealth benefit reduction.
I've read a lot of commentary that says the CPI COLA's for SS cause the benefits to go up too much...
lost-confused (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 1:56 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Info from this blog is coming so fast and furious, that there is little to no time to intergate into my world view...There is plenty of analysis and commentary, but no time.....no time..no time.Notime.time.me....
lost and confused...
It's pretty overwhelming. I started my learning curve in 2005. There are so many moving pieces and so much dimensionality to this stuff it's easy to get disoriented. It will be the life's work of countless academics just to catalog and sort out after they pick up the pieces, IMHO. Even 80+ years later we don't fully understand the GD1. Speculative bubbles just seem to be an intrinsic feature of civilization and the social matrix in general and credit infects everyone and everything.
Market likes it. Another tough day for my shorts.
Allen-
The issue is forgery and the lack of arrest...not the intent of the actual operation, scam or not.
So they are fakes....now we get to discuss the relative competence of various enforcement agencies?
Crimes of this scale are usually punished (and have been) but since you seem to want to compare fake handbags to this ...well there's nothing more I can say.
We could be here all night but I choose to spend my time on more productive endeavors.
Ciao
MS
My memory is the CPI basket of goods kind of went to a cheaper item cost bases. That lowered the CPI number and lowered SS increases. The reason was to save SS in the long run from going BK.